So frustrating. Stuck just outside Banbury now. Am not the only one who is missing out. There are a few of us in the same spot, it seems. Remainers, unfortunately. Or maybe there are some shy Leavers too :-)
20 mins from Banbury to Leamington by train so you might scrape it but if you commute from Warwickshire to London could you not have got a postal vote?
It's strange to think big Ben will.strike 10, the election programmed will roll & then we will have to wait 4-5 hrs being they actually start to say anything about the possible result.
We will surely have a pretty good idea long before that, unless it is VERY close? The fact is that unlike a general election we will be able to deduce something from every result - with the important thing in many cases not being who wins in various areas, but what the turnout is. In General Elections it is the marginal seats which are most important, but that is not the case here. If anything marginal constituencies are very unimportant, because a close race can have a turnout of 10% or 90% and it won't make much difference.
I think Sunderland will tell us all we need to know (REMAIN will do vastly better than "expected")
The spreads have Sunderland as being approx. REMAIN 45% : Leave 55%. Anything materially different from that will excite the betting markets.
Yes, that's a sensible midpoint. Leave more than 60% is great, less than 50% means Remain has probably won.
With the proviso that the Nissan plant may make Sunderland less representative than you'd expect.
So frustrating. Stuck just outside Banbury now. Am not the only one who is missing out. There are a few of us in the same spot, it seems. Remainers, unfortunately. Or maybe there are some shy Leavers too :-)
Any chance at all of you making it to the polling place?
Anecdote: a conversation reported to me earlier with someone at the BBC in Salford - apparently it's difficult to find a Remainer there. Unexpected, certainly, but possibly given the Corbynist nature of some at the BBC believable. Or maybe it's different between the workers and the higher echelons.
I used to live in Salford. Not unexpected. At least outside Media City
Anyway before the results come in well done to leave for making an even fist of this, despite all the odds.
After all, they had such a pathetic rabble of a front team, a hopeless argument, and no-one of any significance supporting them....
I have to hand it to them. Leave defied logic, sanity and any kind of reason to make this into a right rollocking contest. And I say that with all due respect.
Absolutely correct. But for me the EU is now post Federation and into it's early Culture phase. We need to get it to and through it's Iridian War.
Ah, the Culture. That's where I want to live.
I'm so sad that we'll never get another Culture novel. I love 'em all. Player of Games is probably my favourite, with Use of Weapons running a close second.
Likewise. I think Excession is my favourite.
Excession is outstanding. The Culture is almost a non-government. Banks may have told us things that he didn't realise.
I like to think of IMB as having been a Contact agent sent here to prepare us. Elon Musk is also a Contact agent working on Phase II.
Yes, but the Contact agents would in fact be you and I. Moreover the fact I identify us both should surely alert everyone to the truth. Doing so is so daft other than a smokescreen after all.
It's strange to think big Ben will.strike 10, the election programmed will roll & then we will have to wait 4-5 hrs being they actually start to say anything about the possible result.
We will surely have a pretty good idea long before that, unless it is VERY close? The fact is that unlike a general election we will be able to deduce something from every result - with the important thing in many cases not being who wins in various areas, but what the turnout is. In General Elections it is the marginal seats which are most important, but that is not the case here. If anything marginal constituencies are very unimportant, because a close race can have a turnout of 10% or 90% and it won't make much difference.
I think Sunderland will tell us all we need to know (REMAIN will do vastly better than "expected")
Quite likely - I hope everyone is keyed up to move their position, one way or the other.
Leave < 50 : pack bags and welcome evermore EU integration Leave 50-53: Looks like the Brussels gravy train is back on track. Leave 53-54: No fingernails left. Leave 54-57: Cameron in stinky bum time Leave 57+ : Rejoice.
I think we need 60%+ before we start rejoicing.
Turnout also key. We need decent turnout in Leave leading areas; if it's below 70%, there is the possibility that we each of the council areas we want does well, but that we get drowned out by high turnout in London and Scotland.
So frustrating. Stuck just outside Banbury now. Am not the only one who is missing out. There are a few of us in the same spot, it seems. Remainers, unfortunately. Or maybe there are some shy Leavers too :-)
20 mins from Banbury to Leamington by train so you might scrape it but if you commute from Warwickshire to London could you not have got a postal vote?
I thought I'd be back in plenty of time. And would have been but for a lightning strike somewhere on the track. Still, it's my own fault. I just feel very frustrated and incredibly disappointed to miss out. I will end up doing what I thought I'd do when the referendum date was announced - not vote.
So frustrating. Stuck just outside Banbury now. Am not the only one who is missing out. There are a few of us in the same spot, it seems. Remainers, unfortunately. Or maybe there are some shy Leavers too :-)
Any chance at all of you making it to the polling place?
Do both the campaigns genuinely have virtually the whole country covered for this, or might there be significant pockets where they have little intelligence. Clearly this is on a different scale to a General Election where most of the focus is on a fairly narrow band of seats, and to have an idea of what's going on they need to work out not just how various areas are voting but in what numbers.
I don't think Remain have necessarily got it. All people are going on are:
* rumours on Twitter (value less than zero) * baddish last-minute polls for Leave (but if you exclude Populus, they all had it close) * the state of the betting (but that probably isn't based on foreknowledge)
I think it's still very much in-play.
People can't predict a close result on the one hand and a certain result on the other. If 52% Remain is likely then 49% is very possible. If Remain is home and hosed then it must mean that it has won big. I don't see the evidence for that.
Anecdote: a conversation reported to me earlier with someone at the BBC in Salford - apparently it's difficult to find a Remainer there. Unexpected, certainly, but possibly given the Corbynist nature of some at the BBC believable. Or maybe it's different between the workers and the higher echelons.
I used to live in Salford. Not unexpected. At least outside Media City
So what's got everyone so confident of a remain win all of a sudden?
It's a bit like the general election again - one side supremely confident, changed quite rapidly. Though I do think this will go remains way for some reason.
Absolutely correct. But for me the EU is now post Federation and into it's early Culture phase. We need to get it to and through it's Iridian War.
Ah, the Culture. That's where I want to live.
I'm so sad that we'll never get another Culture novel. I love 'em all. Player of Games is probably my favourite, with Use of Weapons running a close second.
Likewise. I think Excession is my favourite.
Well, duh. Truly wonderful book, in every sense of the word.
More importantly, less then 25 minutes until the Dimbleby graces our televisions with his presence!
Dimbleby needs to join Sir Bruce in honourable retirement. He's a sad sight to see these days.
He's still perfectly good at making recorded pieces to camera, à la Attenborough.
My mother (who used to work as a shop assistant, and likes to regale people who've heard it a dozen times before that she used to serve the Dimblebies when they were young men) loves his history documentaries.
I think big live events - maybe even live TV full stop - is getting a bit beyond his ability to carry successfully.
My wife and daughter have just landed in California.
At least they'll be safe when we vote leave...
I hope they were near the front of the plane.
Top deck. But only premium economy.
I told you I'm a cheap b*stard
Top deck premium economy is my standard PA position (unless I'm blowing airmiles). If you have a window seat you get that nice extra space on the side.
It's strange to think big Ben will.strike 10, the election programmed will roll & then we will have to wait 4-5 hrs being they actually start to say anything about the possible result.
We will surely have a pretty good idea long before that, unless it is VERY close? The fact is that unlike a general election we will be able to deduce something from every result - with the important thing in many cases not being who wins in various areas, but what the turnout is. In General Elections it is the marginal seats which are most important, but that is not the case here. If anything marginal constituencies are very unimportant, because a close race can have a turnout of 10% or 90% and it won't make much difference.
I think Sunderland will tell us all we need to know (REMAIN will do vastly better than "expected")
Quite likely - I hope everyone is keyed up to move their position, one way or the other.
Leave < 50 : pack bags and welcome evermore EU integration Leave 50-53: Looks like the Brussels gravy train is back on track. Leave 53-54: No fingernails left. Leave 54-57: Cameron in stinky bum time Leave 57+ : Rejoice.
I think we need 60%+ before we start rejoicing.
Turnout also key. We need decent turnout in Leave leading areas; if it's below 70%, there is the possibility that we each of the council areas we want does well, but that we get drowned outswamped by high turnout in London and Scotland.
More importantly, less then 25 minutes until the Dimbleby graces our televisions with his presence!
Talking of cathartic departures... It's about time we moved into a new era of BBC political coverage.
It was announced before GE2015 that DD was hanging up his mic afterwards in favour of Huw Edwards. But I guess that actually meant "at some time of his choosing before 2020".
My wife and daughter have just landed in California.
At least they'll be safe when we vote leave...
I hope they were near the front of the plane.
rcs.....are you still going leave by a big margin?
I have genuinely no idea what the result will be. However, I expect the winner to get 54+% of the vote.
The masochist in me is hoping for a very close night with Remain squeaking through at 8.00 am tomorrow morning on the last count. They are the best footie matches, right? And the possibilities with betfair will be enormous.
My wife and daughter have just landed in California.
At least they'll be safe when we vote leave...
I hope they were near the front of the plane.
Top deck. But only premium economy.
I told you I'm a cheap b*stard
Top deck premium economy is my standard PA position (unless I'm blowing airmiles). If you have a window seat you get that nice extra space on the side.
So frustrating. Stuck just outside Banbury now. Am not the only one who is missing out. There are a few of us in the same spot, it seems. Remainers, unfortunately. Or maybe there are some shy Leavers too :-)
20 mins from Banbury to Leamington by train so you might scrape it but if you commute from Warwickshire to London could you not have got a postal vote?
You don't need to justify being eligible for a postal vote - you simply ask for one. Easy peasy , I can't understand why everyone doesn't do it.
My wife and daughter have just landed in California.
At least they'll be safe when we vote leave...
I hope they were near the front of the plane.
rcs.....are you still going leave by a big margin?
I have genuinely no idea what the result will be. However, I expect the winner to get 54+% of the vote.
The masochist in me is hoping for a very close night with Remain squeaking through at 8.00 am tomorrow morning on the last count. They are the best footie matches, right? And the possibilities with betfair will be enormous.
Yeah I don't want it to be all over at the first declaration. Where's the fun in that!
So frustrating. Stuck just outside Banbury now. Am not the only one who is missing out. There are a few of us in the same spot, it seems. Remainers, unfortunately. Or maybe there are some shy Leavers too :-)
20 mins from Banbury to Leamington by train so you might scrape it but if you commute from Warwickshire to London could you not have got a postal vote?
You don't need to justify being eligible for a postal vote - you simply ask for one. Easy peasy , I can't understand why everyone doesn't do it.
My wife and daughter have just landed in California.
At least they'll be safe when we vote leave...
I hope they were near the front of the plane.
rcs.....are you still going leave by a big margin?
I have genuinely no idea what the result will be. However, I expect the winner to get 54+% of the vote.
The masochist in me is hoping for a very close night with Remain squeaking through at 8.00 am tomorrow morning on the last count. They are the best footie matches, right? And the possibilities with betfair will be enormous.
Yeah I don't want it to be all over at the first declaration. Where's the fun in that!
So frustrating. Stuck just outside Banbury now. Am not the only one who is missing out. There are a few of us in the same spot, it seems. Remainers, unfortunately. Or maybe there are some shy Leavers too :-)
20 mins from Banbury to Leamington by train so you might scrape it but if you commute from Warwickshire to London could you not have got a postal vote?
You don't need to justify being eligible for a postal vote - you simply ask for one. Easy peasy , I can't understand why everyone doesn't do it.
So frustrating. Stuck just outside Banbury now. Am not the only one who is missing out. There are a few of us in the same spot, it seems. Remainers, unfortunately. Or maybe there are some shy Leavers too :-)
20 mins from Banbury to Leamington by train so you might scrape it but if you commute from Warwickshire to London could you not have got a postal vote?
I thought I'd be back in plenty of time. And would have been but for a lightning strike somewhere on the track. Still, it's my own fault. I just feel very frustrated and incredibly disappointed to miss out. I will end up doing what I thought I'd do when the referendum date was announced - not vote.
Sorry to hear that but it will almost certainly not come down to one vote so never mind, there is always the County Council elections next year!
8.4 may be value on Leave [feels big to me but others may have more info], but there'll almost certainly be greater value later if they're actually in with a shot.
So frustrating. Stuck just outside Banbury now. Am not the only one who is missing out. There are a few of us in the same spot, it seems. Remainers, unfortunately. Or maybe there are some shy Leavers too :-)
20 mins from Banbury to Leamington by train so you might scrape it but if you commute from Warwickshire to London could you not have got a postal vote?
You don't need to justify being eligible for a postal vote - you simply ask for one. Easy peasy , I can't understand why everyone doesn't do it.
If I know I am going to be away I vote by post but I still like the feeling of voting in person at the polling station
So what's got everyone so confident of a remain win all of a sudden?
City wide boys have been piling on all day. They have info we don't.
Their own private exit polls
An exit poll in the middle of the day would be very hard to interpret unless it was showing very one-way traffic. You would probably see Leave ahead relatively more retirees would have voted and fewer younger working people. But what sense to make of it?
An exit poll now is another matter. But Leave is no longer now than at breakfast-time.
8.4 may be value on Leave [feels big to me but others may have more info], but there'll almost certainly be greater value later if they're actually in with a shot.
Peak value must be now, if they do have a shot word will soon spread from the counts.
My wife and daughter have just landed in California.
At least they'll be safe when we vote leave...
I hope they were near the front of the plane.
rcs.....are you still going leave by a big margin?
I have genuinely no idea what the result will be. However, I expect the winner to get 54+% of the vote.
Why? I don't see the evidence as to why it should be an 8-point margin either way.
I don't know. I just suspect it'll not be as close - one way or another - as we think.
Either groups who don't traditionally vote come out, and Leave wins it at a canter. or People bottle it in the privacy of the polling booth, and it's the other way around.
No way many commuters in Folkestone and Dover were expecting to vote after work: these guys get home late and likely would have voted in the morning before catching their train or voted by post.
They're still Remain btw. Generally, Leave is strongest among those who don't work/visit/live in proximity to London.
If you leave work in London at 6pm you will easily get to Folkestone or Dover by 8pm but builders from that area etc could be doing construction work in London and get back late and they may well vote Leave
FFS please give up. You're wrong and you know it (and if you don't you're a halfwit). Try conceding defeat gracefully.
Good luck with getting that from the poster supporting Andy Burnham. :-)
8.4 may be value on Leave [feels big to me but others may have more info], but there'll almost certainly be greater value later if they're actually in with a shot.
Because of Nissan, Sunderland might not as Leave friendly as people think, that might be the best time to back Leave.
It's strange to think big Ben will.strike 10, the election programmed will roll & then we will have to wait 4-5 hrs being they actually start to say anything about the possible result.
We will surely have a pretty good idea long before that, unless it is VERY close? The fact is that unlike a general election we will be able to deduce something from every result - with the important thing in many cases not being who wins in various areas, but what the turnout is. In General Elections it is the marginal seats which are most important, but that is not the case here. If anything marginal constituencies are very unimportant, because a close race can have a turnout of 10% or 90% and it won't make much difference.
I think Sunderland will tell us all we need to know (REMAIN will do vastly better than "expected")
Quite likely - I hope everyone is keyed up to move their position, one way or the other.
Leave < 50 : pack bags and welcome evermore EU integration Leave 50-53: Looks like the Brussels gravy train is back on track. Leave 53-54: No fingernails left. Leave 54-57: Cameron in stinky bum time Leave 57+ : Rejoice.
Personally, I won't start to get excited unless Sunderland votes at least 62% for LEAVE which now seems very unlikely.
So what's got everyone so confident of a remain win all of a sudden?
City wide boys have been piling on all day. They have info we don't.
Their own private exit polls
An exit poll in the middle of the day would be very hard to interpret unless it was showing very one-way traffic. You would probably see Leave ahead relatively more retirees would have voted and fewer younger working people. But what sense to make of it?
An exit poll now is another matter. But Leave is no longer now than at breakfast-time.
Worth remembering most exit polls are Shi'ite. Prior to GE2010 they were taken with a large dose of salt. John Curtice is a political master, who's got it down to a fine art. But he ain't doing these.
OK- just a health warning. Considering the newly advised guidance for alcohol consumption is one mediocre glass of wine per day...to get you though to 7.00 am within the advised limit, I would suggest dipping a tissue in the glass and suck out the drips every half an hour.
Comments
With the proviso that the Nissan plant may make Sunderland less representative than you'd expect.
t's odd to be conceding defeat to a member of the public... On the Tube!
After all, they had such a pathetic rabble of a front team, a hopeless argument, and no-one of any significance supporting them....
I have to hand it to them. Leave defied logic, sanity and any kind of reason to make this into a right rollocking contest. And I say that with all due respect.
rcs.....are you still going leave by a big margin?
I think we need 60%+ before we start rejoicing.
Turnout also key. We need decent turnout in Leave leading areas; if it's below 70%, there is the possibility that we each of the council areas we want does well, but that we get drowned out by high turnout in London and Scotland.
I told you I'm a cheap b*stard
And surely if Remain have won that's great news for Boris?
* rumours on Twitter (value less than zero)
* baddish last-minute polls for Leave (but if you exclude Populus, they all had it close)
* the state of the betting (but that probably isn't based on foreknowledge)
I think it's still very much in-play.
People can't predict a close result on the one hand and a certain result on the other. If 52% Remain is likely then 49% is very possible. If Remain is home and hosed then it must mean that it has won big. I don't see the evidence for that.
My mother (who used to work as a shop assistant, and likes to regale people who've heard it a dozen times before that she used to serve the Dimblebies when they were young men) loves his history documentaries.
I think big live events - maybe even live TV full stop - is getting a bit beyond his ability to carry successfully.
I think the question is whether the extra information they have is accurate or misleading.
NOT AN EXIT POLL
Remain 54%
Leave 46%
Boo!
An exit poll now is another matter. But Leave is no longer now than at breakfast-time.
Either groups who don't traditionally vote come out, and Leave wins it at a canter.
or
People bottle it in the privacy of the polling booth, and it's the other way around.
That's significant on a tight result.