That was a particular stinker at the GE. They can't do any worse this time.
At indyref it was 54% No 46% Yes so pretty accurate. There was no yougov on the day poll at the general election, just the John Curtice exit poll
Yes there was. Yougov reinterviewed people and that is what Kellner was basing his claims the exit poll didn't seem correct. Kellner said their reinterviewes showed no late swing & it was neck and neck.
Maybe you are right but their indyref re-poll on the day was pretty close to the final result
On this I know I am, but Kellner made a plonker of himself & the problem was the reinterviewing strategy of a bad sampling.
More importantly, less then 25 minutes until the Dimbleby graces our televisions with his presence!
Dimbleby needs to join Sir Bruce in honourable retirement. He's a sad sight to see these days.
He's still perfectly good at making recorded pieces to camera, à la Attenborough.
My mother (who used to work as a shop assistant, and likes to regale people who've heard it a dozen times before that she used to serve the Dimblebies when they were young men) loves his history documentaries.
I think big live events - maybe even live TV full stop - is getting a bit beyond his ability to carry successfully.
Heading into Rowley Birkin QC territory, bless him.
So frustrating. Stuck just outside Banbury now. Am not the only one who is missing out. There are a few of us in the same spot, it seems. Remainers, unfortunately. Or maybe there are some shy Leavers too :-)
I would move voting to the weekend, possibly over both days, so that instances like this were rarer.
Spot on', move it to a Sunday and let working people have a level playing field with the OAPs and the unemployed
There's no real reason not to do that is there?
All of the reasons offered as to why it's usually a Thursday are historic and no longer relevant. Given the labour involved, however, Sunday would be a more expensive choice.
i know the drama is fun but why can't we have electronic voting and counting? Results would be instantaneous.
@tnewtondunn: Breaking: Two thirds of Leave Tory MPs sign a letter calling for David Cameron to stay as PM whatever #EUref result https://t.co/VqafBnQNWK
So frustrating. Stuck just outside Banbury now. Am not the only one who is missing out. There are a few of us in the same spot, it seems. Remainers, unfortunately. Or maybe there are some shy Leavers too :-)
I would move voting to the weekend, possibly over both days, so that instances like this were rarer.
Spot on', move it to a Sunday and let working people have a level playing field with the OAPs and the unemployed
There's no real reason not to do that is there?
All of the reasons offered as to why it's usually a Thursday are historic and no longer relevant. Given the labour involved, however, Sunday would be a more expensive choice.
i know the drama is fun but why can't we have electronic voting and counting? Results would be instantaneous.
So frustrating. Stuck just outside Banbury now. Am not the only one who is missing out. There are a few of us in the same spot, it seems. Remainers, unfortunately. Or maybe there are some shy Leavers too :-)
I would move voting to the weekend, possibly over both days, so that instances like this were rarer.
Spot on', move it to a Sunday and let working people have a level playing field with the OAPs and the unemployed
There's no real reason not to do that is there?
All of the reasons offered as to why it's usually a Thursday are historic and no longer relevant. Given the labour involved, however, Sunday would be a more expensive choice.
i know the drama is fun but why can't we have electronic voting and counting? Results would be instantaneous.
That was a particular stinker at the GE. They can't do any worse this time.
At indyref it was 54% No 46% Yes so pretty accurate. There was no yougov on the day poll at the general election, just the John Curtice exit poll
Yes there was. Yougov reinterviewed people and that is what Kellner was basing his claims the exit poll didn't seem correct. Kellner said their reinterviewes showed no late swing & it was neck and neck.
Maybe you are right but their indyref re-poll on the day was pretty close to the final result
On this I know I am, but Kellner made a plonker of himself & the problem was the reinterviewing strategy of a bad sampling.
Perhaps but their Scotland referendum repoll was No 54% Yes 46% so I think this is likely to be close to the final result
So frustrating. Stuck just outside Banbury now. Am not the only one who is missing out. There are a few of us in the same spot, it seems. Remainers, unfortunately. Or maybe there are some shy Leavers too :-)
I would move voting to the weekend, possibly over both days, so that instances like this were rarer.
Spot on', move it to a Sunday and let working people have a level playing field with the OAPs and the unemployed
There's no real reason not to do that is there?
All of the reasons offered as to why it's usually a Thursday are historic and no longer relevant. Given the labour involved, however, Sunday would be a more expensive choice.
i know the drama is fun but why can't we have electronic voting and counting? Results would be instantaneous.
Would still need tons of labour all day to staff the voting places etc.
However the result goes this evening/tomorrow (it really don't know which way it will go) I think the campaign, from both sides, has been terrible. Both sides have used frankly dodgy statistics and divisive language. Leave does not equal “Racist”, “Little Englander”, “Idiot” and remainer does not equal “Traitor” “Quisling” “The Establishment”.
The problem is that I don't think this is going to stop. Whatever side wins we are probably entering a period of political turmoil. The whole referendum campaign has left a stain of bitterness and division across the UK. A stain that may take some time to wipe clean.
The up side? Looks like turnout is going to be high – more people getting involved in the democratic process is always a good thing.
So frustrating. Stuck just outside Banbury now. Am not the only one who is missing out. There are a few of us in the same spot, it seems. Remainers, unfortunately. Or maybe there are some shy Leavers too :-)
I would move voting to the weekend, possibly over both days, so that instances like this were rarer.
Spot on', move it to a Sunday and let working people have a level playing field with the OAPs and the unemployed
There's no real reason not to do that is there?
All of the reasons offered as to why it's usually a Thursday are historic and no longer relevant. Given the labour involved, however, Sunday would be a more expensive choice.
i know the drama is fun but why can't we have electronic voting and counting? Results would be instantaneous.
That was a particular stinker at the GE. They can't do any worse this time.
At indyref it was 54% No 46% Yes so pretty accurate. There was no yougov on the day poll at the general election, just the John Curtice exit poll
Yes there was. Yougov reinterviewed people and that is what Kellner was basing his claims the exit poll didn't seem correct. Kellner said their reinterviewes showed no late swing & it was neck and neck.
Maybe you are right but their indyref re-poll on the day was pretty close to the final result
On this I know I am, but Kellner made a plonker of himself & the problem was the reinterviewing strategy of a bad sampling.
Perhaps but their Scotland referendum repoll was No 54% Yes 46% so I think this is likely to be close to the final result
Scotland must be much easier to poll. Smaller, probably more homogenous.
So frustrating. Stuck just outside Banbury now. Am not the only one who is missing out. There are a few of us in the same spot, it seems. Remainers, unfortunately. Or maybe there are some shy Leavers too :-)
I would move voting to the weekend, possibly over both days, so that instances like this were rarer.
Spot on', move it to a Sunday and let working people have a level playing field with the OAPs and the unemployed
There's no real reason not to do that is there?
All of the reasons offered as to why it's usually a Thursday are historic and no longer relevant. Given the labour involved, however, Sunday would be a more expensive choice.
i know the drama is fun but why can't we have electronic voting and counting? Results would be instantaneous.
Electronic voting. Nope. Far too susceptible to nobbling, even now.
well good evening all back from canvassing a local council estate-whatever the result BOTH main political parties have serious work ahead reconnecting with "their" base
I was included in this - emailed yesterday to say I would be sent another email today and I was only to complete it once I had voted (or definitely decided not to vote). I assume that are cross-referencing what their panel members said they would do with what they actually did do.
This is just another poll, right? Seems more significant as its been withheld until after polls have closed - but no more or less reliable than the ones we already have, right?
For what it's worth I really don't feel that confident as a Remainer, could still go either way. The polls have been all over the place and could be totally wrong, not sure what else is driving the optimism.
Might be last minute swing back but no real evidence, though my wife, having said she was voting Leave right the way through said she voted Remain in the end. I do expect last minute switches will mainly have been in the Leave-Remain direction, but really who knows. we are all grasping at the straws that give us the most comfort.
Yougov was one of the more pessimistic pollsters POV Remain. The fact they don't downgrade Remain further makes me fairly confident of a Remain win.
That was a particular stinker at the GE. They can't do any worse this time.
At indyref it was 54% No 46% Yes so pretty accurate. There was no yougov on the day poll at the general election, just the John Curtice exit poll
Yes there was. Yougov reinterviewed people and that is what Kellner was basing his claims the exit poll didn't seem correct. Kellner said their reinterviewes showed no late swing & it was neck and neck.
Maybe you are right but their indyref re-poll on the day was pretty close to the final result
On this I know I am, but Kellner made a plonker of himself & the problem was the reinterviewing strategy of a bad sampling.
Perhaps but their Scotland referendum repoll was No 54% Yes 46% so I think this is likely to be close to the final result
Scotland must be much easier to poll. Smaller, probably more homogenous.
Still a country of 5 million people and in a vote with just 2 sides easier to poll than an election with 4 or 5 significant parties
This is just another poll, right? Seems more significant as its been withheld until after polls have closed - but no more or less reliable than the ones we already have, right?
Yes. I suppose that it eliminates certainty to vote as a factor, provided people are honest. Of course, they won't all be honest.
the fact bet fair has reacted like that to the yougov poll tells you how much danger there is believing it to be infallible. that yougov is too close to call
This is just another poll, right? Seems more significant as its been withheld until after polls have closed - but no more or less reliable than the ones we already have, right?
Well, its got a big sample size. And it probably suggests there's no big late swing. But its still subject to whatever methodological bias the other Yougov polls might have
Comments
It's also directly available here
I said 53/47.
Very close.
https://t.co/VqafBnQNWK
SpreadEx can still be sold at 54.25
Basically TCTC and no one has the faintest idea.
Oh well we should get an early test of TSEs Blucher theory in Sunderland
However the result goes this evening/tomorrow (it really don't know which way it will go) I think the campaign, from both sides, has been terrible. Both sides have used frankly dodgy statistics and divisive language. Leave does not equal “Racist”, “Little Englander”, “Idiot” and remainer does not equal “Traitor” “Quisling” “The Establishment”.
The problem is that I don't think this is going to stop. Whatever side wins we are probably entering a period of political turmoil. The whole referendum campaign has left a stain of bitterness and division across the UK. A stain that may take some time to wipe clean.
The up side? Looks like turnout is going to be high – more people getting involved in the democratic process is always a good thing.
I WANT JEREMY KYLE DEAD
I WANT JEREMY KYLE DEAD
AND HIS CAT
Sorry luv.
back from canvassing a local council estate-whatever the result BOTH main political parties have serious work ahead reconnecting with "their" base
I was included in this - emailed yesterday to say I would be sent another email today and I was only to complete it once I had voted (or definitely decided not to vote). I assume that are cross-referencing what their panel members said they would do with what they actually did do.
Surely Gibraltar doesn't take part in a GE?
I disagreed with the premise of your post but there was no need to be a git.
Apologies.
maybe i'm a fool?
hoo nose?