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Thanks to Roberto Robles, Global Counsel (@robertoroblesf) for this.

Read the full story here

asjohnstone

Looks nice

Sandpit

2nd like Remain?
Useful widget, thanks to Roberto Robles for providing

rcs1000

FPT:

FrancisUrquhart said:

rcs1000 said:

@El_Dave - I was about to send you a personal email but just realised you're using a mailinator email. We have a rule that people need to use genuine email addresses (and since we got hit by Putin trolls a few years ago, I've cracked down on Tor too). Please change your email address,

Thanks

A few years ago? I thought we still have a few of putins little helpers these days for comic value.

I think Putinlover1983 is genuine but deluded.

Alanbrooke

just been down the pub

returns officer saying busiest he's seen it, neighboring village also high turnout

RealBritain

Gibraltar and the Isles of Scilly ready for their moment of nationwide excitement and fame.

Chameleon

I'm going to go to bed. I'll see you all around 3ish. I suspect that either it'll be a slight leave win, or remain will walk home and we'll wonder what all the fuss was about.

Verulamius

We are about to enter a quantum state - where the UK is both leave and remain at the same time. When the ballot box is opened the wave function will collapse with one result.

But where is the cat?

London

Just back from Remain GOTV in Lewisham. Unsurprisingly very positive for Remain. Turnout will be high.

ThomasNashe

And finally the sun comes out in West London. Polling station was deserted when I made my way through the rain an hour or so ago.

RealBritain

Chameleon said:

I'm going to go to bed. I'll see you all around 3ish. I suspect that either it'll be a slight leave win, or remain will walk home and we'll wonder what all the fuss was about.

I suspect you might be right.

david_herdson

Alanbrooke said:

just been down the pub

returns officer saying busiest he's seen it, neighboring village also high turnout

Probably is. Anything above last May would be the biggest turnout since 1997. I think it'll be touch and go as to whether it beats that 71.3%. If it's more than 72.3% then it'll be the most votes cast in any UK poll, passing the 1992 GE.

alex.

FPT

peter_from_putney said:

not_on_fire said:

peter_from_putney said:

Here in SW London, we've had very little significant rain over the past 12 hours, just a number of bouts of persistent drizzle, but it's been a thoroughly dull, dank, cold, miserable day.
Unless you were particularly exercised by the prospect of voting in the referendum, I can't imagine anything close to record numbers bothering to travel any sort of distance by foot in order to vote. Fortunately, I arranged a postal vote.

Interesting...the weather must be very localised. Here in Chessington just a few miles away we had a torrential downpour last night and another one this afternoon.

Yes, we certainly got it last night all right, like you.

You must live in a particularly unique bit of Putney. Only five minutes away in Wandsworth there have been two or three biblical downpours!

nunu

Verulamius said:

We are about to enter a quantum state - where the UK is both leave and remain at the same time. When the ballot box is opened the wave function will collapse with one result.

But where is the cat?

with plato.

Pulpstar

http://nos.nl/artikel/2113112-laverend-door-londen-zien-we-stugheid-bezorgdheid-en-ergernis.html Heh

RobD

Very flash!

RobD

Wow Gib first. That's going to excite some remainers!

Sandpit

Verulamius said:

But where is the cat?

Its in the box. But don't look, you might kill it!

KentRising

Work colleague in the US has emailed to say the ref's getting a lot of coverage over there - blessedly pushing Trump/Clinton/Isis/guns off their headlines for a bit.

RobD

Alanbrooke said:

just been down the pub

returns officer saying busiest he's seen it, neighboring village also high turnout

What's he doing at the pub?

saddened

Just back after finally deciding to go for leave. Literally decided while stood in the queue at the polling station. Which, incidentally, is the first time I have ever had to queue.

Doing brisk business as I left too

williamglenn

Nice to see Mandelson's mob contributing some useful election widgets.

John_M

RobD said:

Very flash!

We're in the 21st century now, boys!

kle4

Ugh, my declaration's not expected until 0430, I'm worried it will be a lot longer than that though - even though it's a simpler choice and so easier to count, it took almost that long to do the PCC election.

Alanbrooke

RobD said:

Alanbrooke said:

just been down the pub

returns officer saying busiest he's seen it, neighboring village also high turnout

What's he doing at the pub?

we set our priorities correctly in Warwickshire :-)

RobD

kle4 said:

Ugh, my declaration's not expected until 0430, I'm worried it will be a lot longer than that though - even though it's a simpler choice and so easier to count, it took almost that long to do the PCC election.

00:45 Almost as good as Gib, but not quite.

kle4

RobD said:

kle4 said:

Ugh, my declaration's not expected until 0430, I'm worried it will be a lot longer than that though - even though it's a simpler choice and so easier to count, it took almost that long to do the PCC election.

00:45 Almost as good as Gib, but not quite.

You Swindon types make me sick!

Sean_F

I

saddened said:

Just back after finally deciding to go for leave. Literally decided while stood in the queue at the polling station. Which, incidentally, is the first time I have ever had to queue.

Doing brisk business as I left too

That's interesting. What made you vote Leave in the end?

RobD

kle4 said:

RobD said:

kle4 said:

Ugh, my declaration's not expected until 0430, I'm worried it will be a lot longer than that though - even though it's a simpler choice and so easier to count, it took almost that long to do the PCC election.

00:45 Almost as good as Gib, but not quite.

You Swindon types make me sick!

That, or City of London

Starfall

Why are selfies in the voting booth such a danger to the secret ballot, when we have postal votes and proxy votes on demand?

kle4

RobD said:

kle4 said:

RobD said:

kle4 said:

Ugh, my declaration's not expected until 0430, I'm worried it will be a lot longer than that though - even though it's a simpler choice and so easier to count, it took almost that long to do the PCC election.

00:45 Almost as good as Gib, but not quite.

You Swindon types make me sick!

That, or City of London

Little better.

Sean_F

I'm a counting agent tonight. That's far better for my state of mind than feverishly refreshing my IPad..

not_on_fire

I would be somewhat wary of these reports of record turnout. We saw exactly the same stories being posted on the day of the 2015 GE and turnout ended up being only slightly up on 2010.

BenedictWhite

Mid Sussex is supposed to be between 3 and 4. Apparently it may be delayed due to unusually high turnout. Probably not wannabe Yuppie students if young.

Roger

I've just got my 5th voter for Remain and I haven't even tried!

First my daughter and boyfriend who were grateful that I'd saved them the bother of thinking.

Then two waitresses at a coffee bar about a month ago. "What do you reckon?" "Well I'm voting Remain". Ok. We'll do the same...

.And finally walking along the road ten minutes ago a district nurse who was getting into her car who I didn't know asked me if I've voted. I said 'yes Remain'. She said it was so difficult to decide and she didn't know anything about it. I said If you don't want Boris as PM vote Remain. She said she didn't like him at all. I said you better be quick then....

If Remain win Dave should make me Party Chairman.....

Mortimer

Roger said:

I've just got my 5th voter for Remain and I haven't even tried!

First my daughter and boyfriend who were grateful that I'd saved them the bother of thinking.

Then two waitresses at a coffee bar about a month ago. "What do you reckon?" "Well I'm voting Remain". Ok. We'll do the same...

.And finally walking along the road ten minutes ago a district nurse who was getting into her car who I didn't know asked me if I've voted. I said 'yes Remain'. She said it was so difficult to decide and she didn't know anything about it. I said If you don't want Boris as PM vote Remain. She said she didn't like him at all. I said you better be quick then....

If Remain win Dave should make me Party Chairman.....

You should go canvassing at elections Roge, I'm sure you'd be a massive asset....

...For the Tories

HYUFD

not_on_fire said:

I would be somewhat wary of these reports of record turnout. We saw exactly the same stories being posted on the day of the 2015 GE and turnout ended up being only slightly up on 2010.

Judging by Essex an hour ago turnout will certainly not be record, mid 60s is more likely, reasonable but not vast, the rain has probably put a couple off

RobD

kle4 said:

RobD said:

kle4 said:

RobD said:

kle4 said:

Ugh, my declaration's not expected until 0430, I'm worried it will be a lot longer than that though - even though it's a simpler choice and so easier to count, it took almost that long to do the PCC election.

00:45 Almost as good as Gib, but not quite.

You Swindon types make me sick!

That, or City of London

Little better.

I'd be living in a cardboard box if I were there....

eek

Starfall said:

Why are selfies in the voting booth such a danger to the secret ballot, when we have postal votes and proxy votes on demand?

Win 1 of 1000 £1000 prizes. to enter just send a selfie of your vote for leave to .....

HYUFD

Chameleon said:

I'm going to go to bed. I'll see you all around 3ish. I suspect that either it'll be a slight leave win, or remain will walk home and we'll wonder what all the fuss was about.

I think it will be a slight Remain win but we shall see

Mortimer

Late from the previous thread, but the song lyrics that trouble me are 'I'm on fire'

Jonathan

Voted. Busy, but no queues is rural West Sussex.

saddened

Sean_F said:

I

saddened said:

Just back after finally deciding to go for leave. Literally decided while stood in the queue at the polling station. Which, incidentally, is the first time I have ever had to queue.

Doing brisk business as I left too

That's interesting. What made you vote Leave in the end?

I was dithering all day, but I think what actually tipped the balance was juncker essentially saying that's your lot, no more concessions.

bookseller

RobD said:

Wow Gib first. That's going to excite some remainers!

You might be surprised!

nunu

Sean_F said:

I'm a counting agent tonight. That's far better for my state of mind than feverishly refreshing my IPad..

it would be a shame if u miss counted remain as leave whoops! (remember no recounts so u won't get caught shhhhhhhh).

stjohn

Roger said:

I've just got my 5th voter for Remain and I haven't even tried!

First my daughter and boyfriend who were grateful that I'd saved them the bother of thinking.

Then two waitresses at a coffee bar about a month ago. "What do you reckon?" "Well I'm voting Remain". Ok. We'll do the same...

.And finally walking along the road ten minutes ago a district nurse who was getting into her car who I didn't know asked me if I've voted. I said 'yes Remain'. She said it was so difficult to decide and she didn't know anything about it. I said If you don't want Boris as PM vote Remain. She said she didn't like him at all. I said you better be quick then....

If Remain win Dave should make me Party Chairman.....

"IT'S ROG WOT WON IT"

Freggles

So if the BES is on track it's 55% remain, yeah?

Paul_Bedfordshire

Posts seemed to have suddenly died down after a long while where they were coming in faster than I could read them

mwjfrome17

Anecdotal. Partner just been to vote in Walthamstow. Queues - unheard of - and the sheet plastered with pencil marks but wouldn't commit to a percentage. Not raining right now.

MattW

FPT:
The leavers with their "pens" seem to have caught the notion from Scottish Nationalist conspiraloons:

https://www.sundaypost.com/news/political-news/yes-voters-say-poll-may-be-nobbled/
https://www.facebook.com/IndependentScot/photos/pb.181452502007292.-2207520000.1408820108./367892956696578/?type=3&theater

Wonder if they are doing Yogic Flying as well.

shiney2

Sean_F said:

I'm a counting agent tonight. That's far better for my state of mind than feverishly refreshing my IPad..

Same here. I find a view the size of the respective voting paper stacks helps to more easily manage the Hope prior to the result..

RobD

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

Posts seemed to have suddenly died down after a long while where they were coming in faster than I could read them

ah I remember the 2015 elections. The moment that exit poll came out was glorious!

SouthamObserver

Managed to get on 19.47, which ended up leaving at 8.07. Now it's a race against time. Currently not moving somewhere just outside High Wycombe.

Casino_Royale

Jonathan said:

Voted. Busy, but no queues is rural West Sussex.

What did you do?

Wulfrun_Phil

I've been catching up with the methodology in the final YouGov poll, which they adjusted for turnout. Their approach to differential turnout can be summed up as follows:
"We have made a judgment call that we would rather use a high quality estimate of the patterns of turnout from the 2015 general election than a low quality estimate of the patterns of turnout for the referendum based on the historical stability of turnout patterns, but this is a key place where we might get things wrong if there is a large change in turnout patterns."

So their turnout adjustment is a mirror of GE2015 and so assumes that C2DEs will continue to be disengaged from politics to the same extent as at the general election, or at least that any increase in turnout in this group is no more than that for ABC1s.

I think YouGov's assumption is wrong. And that's good for Leave.

kle4

MattW said:

FPT:
The leavers with their "pens" seem to have caught the notion from Scottish Nationalist conspiraloons:

https://www.sundaypost.com/news/political-news/yes-voters-say-poll-may-be-nobbled/
https://www.facebook.com/IndependentScot/photos/pb.181452502007292.-2207520000.1408820108./367892956696578/?type=3&theater

Wonder if they are doing Yogic Flying as well.

The Natural Law party were euroskeptic according to one of their PPBs linked on here awhile back.

MattW

BTW
My North Notts ex-UDM area Polling Station reported a much increased turnout over the GE at mid-morning.

Sandpit

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

Posts seemed to have suddenly died down after a long while where they were coming in faster than I could read them

The calm before the storm.

Speaking of which, time to rest the eyes for a few hours. See you all back here at about 2am UK time, hope it's not all over by then!

John_M

RobD said:

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

Posts seemed to have suddenly died down after a long while where they were coming in faster than I could read them

ah I remember the 2015 elections. The moment that exit poll came out was glorious!

Yep. The PB crowd went wild. I stayed up all night. Bliss was it in that dawn to be alive, But to be young was very heaven!

RobD

SouthamObserver said:

Managed to get on 19.47, which ended up leaving at 8.07. Now it's a race against time. Currently not moving somewhere just outside High Wycombe.

Casually switching between 12 and 24 hour, or was there really a 13 hour delay?

Any chance of you getting back in time to vote? Must be really frustrating

tyson

Sean_F said:

I'm a counting agent tonight. That's far better for my state of mind than feverishly refreshing my IPad..

I'm watching some old Horizons on Iplayer. Fascinating stuff about before the Big Bang. It is quite mind blowing to think that all the matter that is inside me, Sean Fear, Nigel Farage, Roger, Jack, Boris and Dave and Junker and the other 6 billion or so people, and the universe started from a very small point.

RealBritain

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

Posts seemed to have suddenly died down after a long while where they were coming in faster than I could read them

Like the rain.

John_M

SouthamObserver said:

Managed to get on 19.47, which ended up leaving at 8.07. Now it's a race against time. Currently not moving somewhere just outside High Wycombe.

Best of luck Southam.

HYUFD

Wulfrun_Phil said:

I've been catching up with the methodology in the final YouGov poll, which they adjusted for turnout. Their approach to differential turnout can be summed up as follows:
"We have made a judgment call that we would rather use a high quality estimate of the patterns of turnout from the 2015 general election than a low quality estimate of the patterns of turnout for the referendum based on the historical stability of turnout patterns, but this is a key place where we might get things wrong if there is a large change in turnout patterns."

So their turnout adjustment is a mirror of GE2015 and so assumes that C2DEs will continue to be disengaged from politics to the same extent as at the general election, or at least that any increase in turnout in this group is no more than that for ABC1s.

I think YouGov's assumption is wrong. And that's good for Leave.

Comres' final poll included figures adjusted for turnout, I also see no evidence of a vast turnout, it will probably be around general election levels, maybe a little lower because of the weather, perhaps a fraction higher

BenedictWhite

Wulfrun_Phil said:

I've been catching up with the methodology in the final YouGov poll, which they adjusted for turnout. Their approach to differential turnout can be summed up as follows:
"We have made a judgment call that we would rather use a high quality estimate of the patterns of turnout from the 2015 general election than a low quality estimate of the patterns of turnout for the referendum based on the historical stability of turnout patterns, but this is a key place where we might get things wrong if there is a large change in turnout patterns."

So their turnout adjustment is a mirror of GE2015 and so assumes that C2DEs will continue to be disengaged from politics to the same extent as at the general election, or at least that any increase in turnout in this group is no more than that for ABC1s.

I think YouGov's assumption is wrong. And that's good for Leave.

We are about to find out. Money markets and Betfair seeing no unusual moves.

MyBurningEars

SouthamObserver said:

Managed to get on 19.47, which ended up leaving at 8.07. Now it's a race against time. Currently not moving somewhere just outside High Wycombe.

Southam, I love you and your posts and the insight/perspective you bring to this site, and I hope you get home safely and warm (though not too warm) and dry, but just for this once am I allowed to cross my fingers for a slow train?

MattW

kle4 said:

MattW said:

FPT:
The leavers with their "pens" seem to have caught the notion from Scottish Nationalist conspiraloons:

https://www.sundaypost.com/news/political-news/yes-voters-say-poll-may-be-nobbled/
https://www.facebook.com/IndependentScot/photos/pb.181452502007292.-2207520000.1408820108./367892956696578/?type=3&theater

Wonder if they are doing Yogic Flying as well.

The Natural Law party were euroskeptic according to one of their PPBs linked on here awhile back.

And they all had immaculate showman mustachios iirc.

Presumably if all the Yogic Flying was in Scotland it would tip back the geological dipping of the South-East following the last Ice Age !

john_zims

@Roger

'I've just got my 5th voter for Remain and I haven't even tried!

First my daughter and boyfriend who were grateful that I'd saved them the bother of thinking.

Then two waitresses at a coffee bar about a month ago. "What do you reckon?" "Well I'm voting Remain". Ok. We'll do the same...

.And finally walking along the road ten minutes ago a district nurse who was getting into her car who I didn't know asked me if I've voted. I said 'yes Remain'. She said it was so difficult to decide and she didn't know anything about it. I said If you don't want Boris as PM vote Remain. She said she didn't like him at all. I said you better be quick then....

If Remain win Dave should make me Party Chairman..... '


What about you hairdresser and taxi driver you usually manage to convert them or maybe they just want a decent tip ?

Paul_Bedfordshire

Wulfrun_Phil said:

I've been catching up with the methodology in the final YouGov poll, which they adjusted for turnout. Their approach to differential turnout can be summed up as follows:
"We have made a judgment call that we would rather use a high quality estimate of the patterns of turnout from the 2015 general election than a low quality estimate of the patterns of turnout for the referendum based on the historical stability of turnout patterns, but this is a key place where we might get things wrong if there is a large change in turnout patterns."

So their turnout adjustment is a mirror of GE2015 and so assumes that C2DEs will continue to be disengaged from politics to the same extent as at the general election, or at least that any increase in turnout in this group is no more than that for ABC1s.

I think YouGov's assumption is wrong. And that's good for Leave.

Good spot.

My chances of collecting £120 plus my stake back look good when you add that nugget to Rochdales and TSEs gloom about high Lab core turnouts in the Northwest.

Pulpstar

bookseller said:

RobD said:

Wow Gib first. That's going to excite some remainers!

You might be surprised!

Yea right. Yuge remain.

Richard_Tyndall

tyson said:

Sean_F said:

I'm a counting agent tonight. That's far better for my state of mind than feverishly refreshing my IPad..

I'm watching some old Horizons on Iplayer. Fascinating stuff about before the Big Bang. It is quite mind blowing to think that all the matter that is inside me, Sean Fear, Nigel Farage, Roger, Jack, Boris and Dave and Junker and the other 6 billion or so people, and the universe started from a very small point.

Just south of Newport Pagnell in fact :-)

Starfall

Problems at Waterloo are more likely to stop Leavey home counties commuters voting than Remainey Londoners, right?

timmo

Mortimer said:

Roger said:

I've just got my 5th voter for Remain and I haven't even tried!

First my daughter and boyfriend who were grateful that I'd saved them the bother of thinking.

Then two waitresses at a coffee bar about a month ago. "What do you reckon?" "Well I'm voting Remain". Ok. We'll do the same...

.And finally walking along the road ten minutes ago a district nurse who was getting into her car who I didn't know asked me if I've voted. I said 'yes Remain'. She said it was so difficult to decide and she didn't know anything about it. I said If you don't want Boris as PM vote Remain. She said she didn't like him at all. I said you better be quick then....

If Remain win Dave should make me Party Chairman.....

You should go canvassing at elections Roge, I'm sure you'd be a massive asset....

...For the Tories

In the interest of balance i persuaded 4 youngsters to vote leave today . All my sons friends one of whom even had a remain badge on!!

Casino_Royale

I thought Robert's post on the last thread was interesting.

We are perhaps overly influenced by the sequence of the poll release, with Populus poll today and ComRes phone polls last night, which had clear Remain leads, but yougov/ipsos-mori/opinium had it much closer. And have they all been weighted correctly?

If not, and a lot of non-traditional voters are turning out, that have been downweighted, this could be closer than we think.

Anyway, I've topped on Leave at 7.2 on Betfair.

GIN1138

RobD said:

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

Posts seemed to have suddenly died down after a long while where they were coming in faster than I could read them

ah I remember the 2015 elections. The moment that exit poll came out was glorious!

Was a shock.

I wish that exit poll had said Labour Largest Party now to be honest.

Sandpit

SouthamObserver said:

Managed to get on 19.47, which ended up leaving at 8.07. Now it's a race against time. Currently not moving somewhere just outside High Wycombe.

Good luck getting back!

williamglenn

kle4 said:

MattW said:

FPT:
The leavers with their "pens" seem to have caught the notion from Scottish Nationalist conspiraloons:

https://www.sundaypost.com/news/political-news/yes-voters-say-poll-may-be-nobbled/
https://www.facebook.com/IndependentScot/photos/pb.181452502007292.-2207520000.1408820108./367892956696578/?type=3&theater

Wonder if they are doing Yogic Flying as well.

The Natural Law party were euroskeptic according to one of their PPBs linked on here awhile back.

This campaign has been more about phobic lying than yogic flying.

scotslass

Scottish turnout est 70 per cent + on basis of my Aberdeen polling station which usually polls around Scottish average.

Has anyone got the Curtice list of districts if it was a 50-50 split. That would ore useful than the above map which believes that Remain will win the Western Isles. We won't.

If you have a link to Curtice please post.

MyBurningEars

Starfall said:

Problems at Waterloo are more likely to stop Leavey home counties commuters voting than Remainey Londoners, right?

Commuters might be ABC1 types with a healthy smattering of graduate professionals and hence remain. But you might well be correct. I take it all back. Godspeed you Southam.

RobD

GIN1138 said:

RobD said:

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

Posts seemed to have suddenly died down after a long while where they were coming in faster than I could read them

ah I remember the 2015 elections. The moment that exit poll came out was glorious!

Was a shock.

I wish that exit poll had said Labour Largest Party now to be honest.

You're a sick man.. a sick, sick man

John_M

Starfall said:

Problems at Waterloo are more likely to stop Leavey home counties commuters voting than Remainey Londoners, right?

It's all in the lap of the Gods now. Que sera sera etc.

timmo

Starfall said:

Problems at Waterloo are more likely to stop Leavey home counties commuters voting than Remainey Londoners, right?

No mainly people with city banking or insurance jobs who have big houses and have most to lose in their eyes. So therefore on balance remain brigade.

Paul_Bedfordshire

HYUFD said:

Wulfrun_Phil said:

I've been catching up with the methodology in the final YouGov poll, which they adjusted for turnout. Their approach to differential turnout can be summed up as follows:
"We have made a judgment call that we would rather use a high quality estimate of the patterns of turnout from the 2015 general election than a low quality estimate of the patterns of turnout for the referendum based on the historical stability of turnout patterns, but this is a key place where we might get things wrong if there is a large change in turnout patterns."

So their turnout adjustment is a mirror of GE2015 and so assumes that C2DEs will continue to be disengaged from politics to the same extent as at the general election, or at least that any increase in turnout in this group is no more than that for ABC1s.

I think YouGov's assumption is wrong. And that's good for Leave.

Comres' final poll included figures adjusted for turnout, I also see no evidence of a vast turnout, it will probably be around general election levels, maybe a little lower because of the weather, perhaps a fraction higher

It may be the same but if there are far more wwc and far less of some other lot then remain are in trouble

HYUFD

Starfall said:

Problems at Waterloo are more likely to stop Leavey home counties commuters voting than Remainey Londoners, right?

Many will be ABC1 Remainers but they should still get back by the time the polls close

brokenwheel

Starfall said:

Problems at Waterloo are more likely to stop Leavey home counties commuters voting than Remainey Londoners, right?

No, there's a reason the Remainers have been targetting London commuter towns.

KentRising

timmo said:

Starfall said:

Problems at Waterloo are more likely to stop Leavey home counties commuters voting than Remainey Londoners, right?

No mainly people with city banking or insurance jobs who have big houses and have most to lose in their eyes. So therefore on balance remain brigade.

Yep, London commuters will largely be Remain. The further south and east you get in Kent, away from London, the more UKIP/Leave it is.

weejonnie

HYUFD said:

Wulfrun_Phil said:

I've been catching up with the methodology in the final YouGov poll, which they adjusted for turnout. Their approach to differential turnout can be summed up as follows:
"We have made a judgment call that we would rather use a high quality estimate of the patterns of turnout from the 2015 general election than a low quality estimate of the patterns of turnout for the referendum based on the historical stability of turnout patterns, but this is a key place where we might get things wrong if there is a large change in turnout patterns."

So their turnout adjustment is a mirror of GE2015 and so assumes that C2DEs will continue to be disengaged from politics to the same extent as at the general election, or at least that any increase in turnout in this group is no more than that for ABC1s.

I think YouGov's assumption is wrong. And that's good for Leave.

Comres' final poll included figures adjusted for turnout, I also see no evidence of a vast turnout, it will probably be around general election levels, maybe a little lower because of the weather, perhaps a fraction higher

Talk about covering your bases.

glw

SouthamObserver said:

Managed to get on 19.47, which ended up leaving at 8.07. Now it's a race against time. Currently not moving somewhere just outside High Wycombe.

FWIW I hope you make it back home in time to vote.

MikeL

Betfair edging further to Remain in last 15 mins.

Leave now 7.8 (from 7.4 about 15 mins ago).

Presumably some people must now have info from private polls?

alex.

timmo said:

Starfall said:

Problems at Waterloo are more likely to stop Leavey home counties commuters voting than Remainey Londoners, right?

No mainly people with city banking or insurance jobs who have big houses and have most to lose in their eyes. So therefore on balance remain brigade.

All they have to do is ring home and get the butler to vote for them!

mwjfrome17

£ rising 1.4830
Betfair has remain at 87%

HYUFD

KentRising said:

timmo said:

Starfall said:

Problems at Waterloo are more likely to stop Leavey home counties commuters voting than Remainey Londoners, right?

No mainly people with city banking or insurance jobs who have big houses and have most to lose in their eyes. So therefore on balance remain brigade.

Yep, London commuters will largely be Remain. The further south and east you get in Kent, away from London, the more UKIP/Leave it is.

Yes but most of those Remain commuters live in Surrey, Buckinghamshire, or West Kent not the Kent coast, so less than an hour from central London thus even delays will not prevent them voting by 10pm unless they only left the office at 9pm in which case they may have voted first thing in the morning anyway. Commuters to Dover, Thanet, Folkestone etc which is a longer journey but cheaper property are more likely to be for Leave

RealBritain

Gibraltar must be readying itself for its greatest moment of national adulation and excitement since John Lennon briefly touched there down to get married to Yoko Ohno in 1969, before looking a bit bored. For the Scilly Isles, the sky must be the limit.

GIN1138

RobD said:

GIN1138 said:

RobD said:

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

Posts seemed to have suddenly died down after a long while where they were coming in faster than I could read them

ah I remember the 2015 elections. The moment that exit poll came out was glorious!

Was a shock.

I wish that exit poll had said Labour Largest Party now to be honest.

You're a sick man.. a sick, sick man

If Ed Miliband had won the 2015 general election we wouldn't be having a referendum and locking ourselves forever into a European Superstate.

A Labour win last year would have been far, far better than where we are now. Funny how things work out.

Still, you live and learn, Jezza for me next time.

Omnium

john_zims said:

that I'd saved them the bother of thinking.

Probably best that you do less of that.

RobD

RealBritain said:

Gibraltar must be readying itself for its greatest moment of national adulation and excitement since John Lennon briefly touched there down to get married to Yoko Ohno in 1969, before looking a bit bored. For the Scilly Isles, the sky must be the limit.

Wonder which lucky BBC correspondent got the gig?

glw

Casino_Royale said:

If not, and a lot of non-traditional voters are turning out, that have been downweighted, this could be closer than we think.

That's my last grasp of hope that there has been a massive weighting cock-up.

weejonnie

MikeL said:

Betfair edging further to Remain in last 15 mins.

Leave now 7.8 (from 7.4 about 15 mins ago).

Well off wanting some fun after they've had their dinner. The pound-dollar and pound-euro would be a better indication IMHO if there's private polling going on.

david_herdson

Wulfrun_Phil said:

I've been catching up with the methodology in the final YouGov poll, which they adjusted for turnout. Their approach to differential turnout can be summed up as follows:
"We have made a judgment call that we would rather use a high quality estimate of the patterns of turnout from the 2015 general election than a low quality estimate of the patterns of turnout for the referendum based on the historical stability of turnout patterns, but this is a key place where we might get things wrong if there is a large change in turnout patterns."

So their turnout adjustment is a mirror of GE2015 and so assumes that C2DEs will continue to be disengaged from politics to the same extent as at the general election, or at least that any increase in turnout in this group is no more than that for ABC1s.

I think YouGov's assumption is wrong. And that's good for Leave.

Though it also assumes that the 18-40 turnout will be low, which may well be equally untrue.

HYUFD

weejonnie said:

HYUFD said:

Wulfrun_Phil said:

I've been catching up with the methodology in the final YouGov poll, which they adjusted for turnout. Their approach to differential turnout can be summed up as follows:
"We have made a judgment call that we would rather use a high quality estimate of the patterns of turnout from the 2015 general election than a low quality estimate of the patterns of turnout for the referendum based on the historical stability of turnout patterns, but this is a key place where we might get things wrong if there is a large change in turnout patterns."

So their turnout adjustment is a mirror of GE2015 and so assumes that C2DEs will continue to be disengaged from politics to the same extent as at the general election, or at least that any increase in turnout in this group is no more than that for ABC1s.

I think YouGov's assumption is wrong. And that's good for Leave.

Comres' final poll included figures adjusted for turnout, I also see no evidence of a vast turnout, it will probably be around general election levels, maybe a little lower because of the weather, perhaps a fraction higher

Talk about covering your bases.

It is certainly not going to be at indyref levels put it that way

Hertsmere_Pubgoer

Casino_Royale said:

I thought Robert's post on the last thread was interesting.

We are perhaps overly influenced by the sequence of the poll release, with Populus poll today and ComRes phone polls last night, which had clear Remain leads, but yougov/ipsos-mori/opinium had it much closer. And have they all been weighted correctly?

If not, and a lot of non-traditional voters are turning out, that have been downweighted, this could be closer than we think.

Anyway, I've topped on Leave at 7.2 on Betfair.

I've had an extra slice of Brexit at those odds too.