My wife and daughter have just landed in California.
At least they'll be safe when we vote leave...
I hope they were near the front of the plane.
rcs.....are you still going leave by a big margin?
I have genuinely no idea what the result will be. However, I expect the winner to get 54+% of the vote.
Why? I don't see the evidence as to why it should be an 8-point margin either way.
For me it's going to be down to the young. I've no idea how they'll break - all the young 'uns I know are in the forces and they report almost unbelievably high levels of Leave votes. That's hardly the modal demographic .
I'm just going to sit about and get quietly plastered. Let's see what happens.
Anecdote: a conversation reported to me earlier with someone at the BBC in Salford - apparently it's difficult to find a Remainer there. Unexpected, certainly, but possibly given the Corbynist nature of some at the BBC believable. Or maybe it's different between the workers and the higher echelons.
I used to live in Salford. Not unexpected. At least outside Media City
8.4 may be value on Leave [feels big to me but others may have more info], but there'll almost certainly be greater value later if they're actually in with a shot.
Peak value must be now, if they do have a shot word will soon spread from the counts.
If Leave win Sunderland handily you might be able to get 2.5 about a 1.3 shot.
So what's got everyone so confident of a remain win all of a sudden?
City wide boys have been piling on all day. They have info we don't.
Their own private exit polls
An exit poll in the middle of the day would be very hard to interpret unless it was showing very one-way traffic. You would probably see Leave ahead relatively more retirees would have voted and fewer younger working people. But what sense to make of it?
An exit poll now is another matter. But Leave is no longer now than at breakfast-time.
Worth remembering most exit polls are Shi'ite. Prior to GE2010 they were taken with a large dose of salt. John Curtice is a political master, who's got it down to a fine art. But he ain't doing these.
That's significant on a tight result.
Good point.
I'm very sceptical that the City, Boris, Farage or anyone actually knows who has won and lost.
So frustrating. Stuck just outside Banbury now. Am not the only one who is missing out. There are a few of us in the same spot, it seems. Remainers, unfortunately. Or maybe there are some shy Leavers too :-)
I would move voting to the weekend, possibly over both days, so that instances like this were rarer.
Spot on', move it to a Sunday and let working people have a level playing field with the OAPs and the unemployed
So frustrating. Stuck just outside Banbury now. Am not the only one who is missing out. There are a few of us in the same spot, it seems. Remainers, unfortunately. Or maybe there are some shy Leavers too :-)
I would move voting to the weekend, possibly over both days, so that instances like this were rarer.
Spot on', move it to a Sunday and let working people have a level playing field with the OAPs and the unemployed
Ave it (the first on here to call the GE2015 CON maj) says...
Remain 54% Leave 46%
Boo!
We need a closer result than that. EU needs to be shocked by this.
We'll shock them Sally Field style. "You like me. You really like me!"
If he plays it right Cameron has a serious democratic mandate when negotiating with the EU. The rest of the European leaders wouldn't dare putting membership of the EU so he can effectively speak for their own people.
So what's got everyone so confident of a remain win all of a sudden?
City wide boys have been piling on all day. They have info we don't.
Their own private exit polls
An exit poll in the middle of the day would be very hard to interpret unless it was showing very one-way traffic. You would probably see Leave ahead relatively more retirees would have voted and fewer younger working people. But what sense to make of it?
An exit poll now is another matter. But Leave is no longer now than at breakfast-time.
Worth remembering most exit polls are Shi'ite. Prior to GE2010 they were taken with a large dose of salt. John Curtice is a political master, who's got it down to a fine art. But he ain't doing these.
That's significant on a tight result.
Good point.
I'm very sceptical that the City, Boris, Farage or anyone actually knows who has won and lost.
Yep. It'll be based on measured turnout, "exit" polls, anecdotes and telling v. canvass data.
But hard to find many crumbs for Leave at the moment.
Ave it (the first on here to call the GE2015 CON maj) says...
Remain 54% Leave 46%
Boo!
We need a closer result than that. EU needs to be shocked by this.
We'll shock them Sally Field style. "You like me. You really like me!"
If he plays it right Cameron has a serious democratic mandate when negotiating with the EU. The rest of the European leaders wouldn't dare putting membership of the EU so he can effectively speak for their own people.
No way many commuters in Folkestone and Dover were expecting to vote after work: these guys get home late and likely would have voted in the morning before catching their train or voted by post.
They're still Remain btw. Generally, Leave is strongest among those who don't work/visit/live in proximity to London.
If you leave work in London at 6pm you will easily get to Folkestone or Dover by 8pm but builders from that area etc could be doing construction work in London and get back late and they may well vote Leave
FFS please give up. You're wrong and you know it (and if you don't you're a halfwit). Try conceding defeat gracefully.
Good luck with getting that from the poster supporting Andy Burnham. :-)
Who would still have been the best bet of the candidates on offer last September
FWIW turnout round my hood super high according to the folks at the polling place. Much busier than GE2015, they say (I'm in Stockport suburbs toward Manchester).
In-ish, I'd have thought round me - as to national result, yesterday I was saying 51-49 Leave. Not putting any money down, but if I was it'd be on leave at these odds.
Ave it (the first on here to call the GE2015 CON maj) says...
Remain 54% Leave 46%
Boo!
We need a closer result than that. EU needs to be shocked by this.
We'll shock them Sally Field style. "You like me. You really like me!"
If he plays it right Cameron has a serious democratic mandate when negotiating with the EU. The rest of the European leaders wouldn't dare putting membership of the EU so he can effectively speak for their own people.
That was a particular stinker at the GE. They can't do any worse this time.
At indyref it was 54% No 46% Yes so pretty accurate. There was no yougov on the day poll at the general election, just the John Curtice exit poll
Yes there was. Yougov reinterviewed people and that is what Kellner was basing his claims the exit poll didn't seem correct. Kellner said their reinterviewes showed no late swing & it was neck and neck.
It's strange to think big Ben will.strike 10, the election programmed will roll & then we will have to wait 4-5 hrs being they actually start to say anything about the possible result.
We will surely have a pretty good idea long before that, unless it is VERY close? The fact is that unlike a general election we will be able to deduce something from every result - with the important thing in many cases not being who wins in various areas, but what the turnout is. In General Elections it is the marginal seats which are most important, but that is not the case here. If anything marginal constituencies are very unimportant, because a close race can have a turnout of 10% or 90% and it won't make much difference.
I think Sunderland will tell us all we need to know (REMAIN will do vastly better than "expected")
Quite likely - I hope everyone is keyed up to move their position, one way or the other.
Leave < 50 : pack bags and welcome evermore EU integration Leave 50-53: Looks like the Brussels gravy train is back on track. Leave 53-54: No fingernails left. Leave 54-57: Cameron in stinky bum time Leave 57+ : Rejoice.
Personally, I won't start to get excited unless Sunderland votes at least 62% for LEAVE which now seems very unlikely.
My, metaphorical, money has been on 56 - 44 remain, since the start of the campaign.
Whew. What's the next interesting political event? I can't get interested or enthused over the US elections, so is there just the 2020 GE to look forward to?
So frustrating. Stuck just outside Banbury now. Am not the only one who is missing out. There are a few of us in the same spot, it seems. Remainers, unfortunately. Or maybe there are some shy Leavers too :-)
I would move voting to the weekend, possibly over both days, so that instances like this were rarer.
Spot on', move it to a Sunday and let working people have a level playing field with the OAPs and the unemployed
There's no real reason not to do that is there?
All of the reasons offered as to why it's usually a Thursday are historic and no longer relevant. Given the labour involved, however, Sunday would be a more expensive choice.
That was a particular stinker at the GE. They can't do any worse this time.
At indyref it was 54% No 46% Yes so pretty accurate. There was no yougov on the day poll at the general election, just the John Curtice exit poll
Yes there was. Yougov reinterviewed people and that is what Kellner was basing his claims the exit poll didn't seem correct. Kellner said their reinterviewes showed no late swing & it was neck and neck.
Maybe you are right but their indyref re-poll on the day was pretty close to the final result
@jimwaterson: Leave.EU claims they polled 10,000 over last 48hrs (no further details) calls it 52% for Leave and 48% for Remain. https://t.co/n1653XAIiO
For what it's worth I really don't feel that confident as a Remainer, could still go either way. The polls have been all over the place and could be totally wrong, not sure what else is driving the optimism.
Might be last minute swing back but no real evidence, though my wife, having said she was voting Leave right the way through said she voted Remain in the end. I do expect last minute switches will mainly have been in the Leave-Remain direction, but really who knows. we are all grasping at the straws that give us the most comfort.
Comments
I'm just going to sit about and get quietly plastered. Let's see what happens.
I'm very sceptical that the City, Boris, Farage or anyone actually knows who has won and lost.
Pls a four figure win from my punt last week.
It's all going well,,,,, too well.... hmm
Deliberately stayed away from here over the past week as I was so disgusted by both campaigns.
Think Ave It is right.....unfortunately.
But hard to find many crumbs for Leave at the moment.
Difficult decision to decide which way to vote, but I made it eventually.
In-ish, I'd have thought round me - as to national result, yesterday I was saying 51-49 Leave. Not putting any money down, but if I was it'd be on leave at these odds.
1992/ 2015
or
1997/ 2001?
(but I did take her to the airport)
TFFT
It's all over
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1hCtN3IY76azcr_6OiFPvZI0eXi_8JJqxT7d8vNhW2Do/edit#gid=0
Says he's not going anywhere.
I bloody love David Dimbleby.
I have always bloody loved Emily Maitlis.
I have come to bloody love Laura Kuessnberg.
For what it's worth I really don't feel that confident as a Remainer, could still go either way. The polls have been all over the place and could be totally wrong, not sure what else is driving the optimism.
Might be last minute swing back but no real evidence, though my wife, having said she was voting Leave right the way through said she voted Remain in the end. I do expect last minute switches will mainly have been in the Leave-Remain direction, but really who knows. we are all grasping at the straws that give us the most comfort.
Jeremy is okay (much improved).
Remain 52%
Leave 48%