I keep coming back to what Pulpstar said about pollsters weighting by GE voting. This is going to distort the polling heavily in Remains favour. I'm really thinking about increasing my Leave backing - but ugh, can't decide.
I've a sense of foreboding that you would be right to do so...
Was just checking the last time UK general election turnout went above 80%. Seems it only happened once in the 20th century in the 1951 general election which I think had a turnout of 82.6%
On a somewhat serious point for a moment. There are many people here on both sides who fought hard. I know TSE and Casino_Royale, and many others, have given up their time and have canvassed and campaigned, and that effort should be recognised.
By 6am tomorrow somebody will have lost. I won't patronise you: I hope REMAIN will win. But regardless of who wins, I would like to thank all those here on both sides, REMAIN and LEAVE, who took the time and effort to voice their thoughts and experiences. It would not have been the same without you, and even if you lose, I hope you all go on to greater success in life.
Well said. More than anything else, I've hated what this campaign has brought out in Britain over the past few months - i hope this can be the attitude as we move on from such a divisive referendum.
What is worse - bringing it out or having it festering under the surface with our leaders pretending the issues are not significant
Are you shitting me? My polling station was dead when I went. I've voted there for all sorts of elections including council by-elections. It did not seem IndyRef levels of buzzing.
Incorrect - the projection was Conservatives: Largest Party. Neither a hung parliament nor a majority was predicted.
Yes -- John Curtice said at the time that the "upper range" of the exit poll pointed to a small Tory majority. 316 seats was just the midpoint of their projections.
The exit poll was pretty good, it had LDs within two seats, UKIP within one, and it got the Tories within about 15.
I know they did quite well but ultimately they predicted a hung parliament and the actual result was a Tory majority. The exit poll always focuses first and foremost on the result.
Let's compare referendum wines! I'm guzzling Capologno di Torbe Amarone, 2009. And delicious it is. Mmmmmmmm. *falls over, slightly*
As a miser I'm sipping Waitrose's Villa Maria Sauvignon. Mind you, I'm also eating Cadbury's mini eggs, just to fully establish my Philistine credentials.
On a somewhat serious point for a moment. There are many people here on both sides who fought hard. I know TSE and Casino_Royale, and many others, have given up their time and have canvassed and campaigned, and that effort should be recognised.
By 6am tomorrow somebody will have lost. I won't patronise you: I hope REMAIN will win. But regardless of who wins, I would like to thank all those here on both sides, REMAIN and LEAVE, who took the time and effort to voice their thoughts and experiences. It would not have been the same without you, and even if you lose, I hope you all go on to greater success in life.
Well said. More than anything else, I've hated what this campaign has brought out in Britain over the past few months - i hope this can be the attitude as we move on from such a divisive referendum.
What is worse - bringing it out or having it festering under the surface with our leaders pretending the issues are not significant
Time will tell. I'm not sure where the frustrations with immigration, identity and foreigners will go now they are in the open, if it is to be a Remain. Especially with the press we have.
P.S. Would it be rude to ask where in Bedfordshire you are? We may be round the corner from each other.
I wonder if we may see an indyref result, where exceptional turnout surprisingly favoured NO, as quiet loyalists showed up and voted.
I think quiet middle classes and lower middle classes have come out and surprisingly favoured IN, because Project Fear.
The difference is that Indyref turnout was higher by the same amounts in each area as at a General or Scottish election. I don't think that will happen here, we could be getting 80% in the WWC shires and sub 70% in Scotland and Metropolitan areas outside London.
That will make a huge distortion to the way polls predict the outcome.
I don't think that's the case. Turnout was high in Glasgow at Indyref. Having said that the demographics are different this time. Older people and professionals both tended to No but will tend different directions time.
The exit poll was pretty good, it had LDs within two seats, UKIP within one, and it got the Tories within about 15.
The GE exit poll did not in fact predict a "hung parliament".
It predicted "conservatives largest party".
It did this because Curtice et al from their research had a sense that the Tories were going to get an overall majority, but it seemed so far off the consensus that they didn't want to call it at 10pm.
They therefore opted for a new verdict, not a hung parliament, not a Tory majority but the "conservatives to get the largest number of seats".
This left open the possiblity of a Tory majority while avoiding an outcry if it had been a hung parliament with the Tories the largest party after all.
It was the mugs who piled into overall majority at 1/10 who complained the exit poll called it wrong.
It didn't - it never spelt out a hung parliament. Curtice knew at 10pm a Tory majority was the most likely result.
I made it. Got into the station at 9.47. Ran to the car, broke every speed limit and got there as they were preparing to close down. I was the second last in; the last person was also a late train casualty and also Remain.
Nigel Farage just can't resist can he? He always has to make the headlines.
Anyway, which ever way this result goes, this is still a fantastic country to live in and we really are very lucky, particularly when you look at other parts of the world.
The exit poll was pretty good, it had LDs within two seats, UKIP within one, and it got the Tories within about 15.
The GE exit poll did not in fact predict a "hung parliament".
It predicted "conservatives largest party".
It did this because Curtice et al from their research had a sense that the Tories were going to get an overall majority, but it seemed so far off the consensus that they didn't want to call it at 10pm.
They therefore opted for a new verdict, not a hung parliament, not a Tory majority but the "conservatives to get the largest number of seats".
This left open the possiblity of a Tory majority while avoiding an outcry if it had been a hung parliament with the Tories the largest party after all.
It was the mugs who piled into overall majority at 1/10 who complained the exit poll called it wrong.
It didn't - it never spelt out a hung parliament. Curtice knew at 10pm a Tory majority was the most likely result.
The exit poll was very clear how many seats it was predicting for the Tories and the Tories were well short of a majority.
this is the problem with ids, nothing matters more to him than being out of the eu.... it's shown.
And we now know that the problem with Cameron and Osborne is that nothing matters more to them than being in the EU. Whatever the outcome, this referendum has flushed out the Tories for what they are.
What utter crap, this was a binary choice, you can't fight a little bit for the side you are on. Dorks like you will ensure the festering continues what ever the result is.
I made it. Got into the station at 9.47. Ran to the car, broke every speed limit and got there as they were preparing to close down. I was the second last in; the last person was also a late train casualty and also Remain.
Was just checking the last time UK general election turnout went above 80%. Seems it only happened once in the 20th century in the 1951 general election which I think had a turnout of 82.6%
Let's compare referendum wines! I'm guzzling Capologno di Torbe Amarone, 2009. And delicious it is. Mmmmmmmm. *falls over, slightly*
As a miser I'm sipping Waitrose's Villa Maria Sauvignon. Mind you, I'm also eating Cadbury's mini eggs, just to fully establish my Philistine credentials.
I have a McLaren Vale Durif Rose, courtesy of whoever it was who provided yesterday's winning Kempton Racing tip (cheers!)
The exit poll was pretty good, it had LDs within two seats, UKIP within one, and it got the Tories within about 15.
The GE exit poll did not in fact predict a "hung parliament".
It predicted "conservatives largest party".
It did this because Curtice et al from their research had a sense that the Tories were going to get an overall majority, but it seemed so far off the consensus that they didn't want to call it at 10pm.
They therefore opted for a new verdict, not a hung parliament, not a Tory majority but the "conservatives to get the largest number of seats".
This left open the possiblity of a Tory majority while avoiding an outcry if it had been a hung parliament with the Tories the largest party after all.
It was the mugs who piled into overall majority at 1/10 who complained the exit poll called it wrong.
It didn't - it never spelt out a hung parliament. Curtice knew at 10pm a Tory majority was the most likely result.
The exit poll was very clear how many seats it was predicting for the Tories and the Tories were well short of a majority.
Can you back this up please? during the course of the night a projected number of seats appeared on the ticker at the bottom of the screen updating based on results, but the original exit poll at 10pm did not, to my knowledge, predict a number of seats.
It predicted only this: "Conservatives largest party with most seats". There was no seat prediction until results started coming in to my knowledge, unless you can marshal evidence here to the contrary.
I made it. Got into the station at 9.47. Ran to the car, broke every speed limit and got there as they were preparing to close down. I was the second last in; the last person was also a late train casualty and also Remain.
I made it. Got into the station at 9.47. Ran to the car, broke every speed limit and got there as they were preparing to close down. I was the second last in; the last person was also a late train casualty and also Remain.
Very pleased to have taken part!
Congratulations! Shows the determination of the London commuter
I made it. Got into the station at 9.47. Ran to the car, broke every speed limit and got there as they were preparing to close down. I was the second last in; the last person was also a late train casualty and also Remain.
Very pleased to have taken part!
Best news I've heard all day. Well done
Brilliant. Would have been tragic to have missed it
I made it. Got into the station at 9.47. Ran to the car, broke every speed limit and got there as they were preparing to close down. I was the second last in; the last person was also a late train casualty and also Remain.
The exit poll was pretty good, it had LDs within two seats, UKIP within one, and it got the Tories within about 15.
The GE exit poll did not in fact predict a "hung parliament".
It predicted "conservatives largest party".
It did this because Curtice et al from their research had a sense that the Tories were going to get an overall majority, but it seemed so far off the consensus that they didn't want to call it at 10pm.
They therefore opted for a new verdict, not a hung parliament, not a Tory majority but the "conservatives to get the largest number of seats".
This left open the possiblity of a Tory majority while avoiding an outcry if it had been a hung parliament with the Tories the largest party after all.
It was the mugs who piled into overall majority at 1/10 who complained the exit poll called it wrong.
It didn't - it never spelt out a hung parliament. Curtice knew at 10pm a Tory majority was the most likely result.
The exit poll was very clear how many seats it was predicting for the Tories and the Tories were well short of a majority.
Can you back this up please? during the course of the night a projected number of seats appeared on the ticker at the bottom of the screen updating based on results, but the original exit poll at 10pm did not, to my knowledge, predict a number of seats.
It predicted only this: "Conservatives largest party with most seats". There was no seat prediction until results started coming in to my knowledge, unless you can marshal evidence here to the contrary.
It did. From memory it predicted Tories on 316 seats.
I wonder if we may see an indyref result, where exceptional turnout surprisingly favoured NO, as quiet loyalists showed up and voted.
I think quiet middle classes and lower middle classes have come out and surprisingly favoured IN, because Project Fear.
Why do you think that the middle classes and lower middle classes succumbed to Project Fear, while you were able to see through it all?
You should be writing in The Guardian with sentiments like that.
Because I am richer than them and I can withstand the financial loss. They cannot. I entirely sympathise with them. I don't blame them for voting the way they do. I don't call them names. Equally, I hope I feel the pain of the white working classes - 20% of Brits - who have been truly pauperised by mass immigration. I also understand why they might vote OUT.
I reserve the terms "traitors" and "quislings" for the rich ugly f* cks on here who voted REMAIN. Meeks, tyson, et al.
God damn them to hell.
If it is a very close Remain vote, it does beg the question just how badly the UK really wanted a much better deal given the perceived risks of Leaving.
But, I don't expect either the UK Government or EU to learn much from it.
The exit poll was pretty good, it had LDs within two seats, UKIP within one, and it got the Tories within about 15.
The GE exit poll did not in fact predict a "hung parliament".
It predicted "conservatives largest party".
It did this because Curtice et al from their research had a sense that the Tories were going to get an overall majority, but it seemed so far off the consensus that they didn't want to call it at 10pm.
They therefore opted for a new verdict, not a hung parliament, not a Tory majority but the "conservatives to get the largest number of seats".
This left open the possiblity of a Tory majority while avoiding an outcry if it had been a hung parliament with the Tories the largest party after all.
It was the mugs who piled into overall majority at 1/10 who complained the exit poll called it wrong.
It didn't - it never spelt out a hung parliament. Curtice knew at 10pm a Tory majority was the most likely result.
The exit poll was very clear how many seats it was predicting for the Tories and the Tories were well short of a majority.
Can you back this up please? during the course of the night a projected number of seats appeared on the ticker at the bottom of the screen updating based on results, but the original exit poll at 10pm did not, to my knowledge, predict a number of seats.
It predicted only this: "Conservatives largest party with most seats". There was no seat prediction until results started coming in to my knowledge, unless you can marshal evidence here to the contrary.
On a somewhat serious point for a moment. There are many people here on both sides who fought hard. I know TSE and Casino_Royale, and many others, have given up their time and have canvassed and campaigned, and that effort should be recognised.
By 6am tomorrow somebody will have lost. I won't patronise you: I hope REMAIN will win. But regardless of who wins, I would like to thank all those here on both sides, REMAIN and LEAVE, who took the time and effort to voice their thoughts and experiences. It would not have been the same without you, and even if you lose, I hope you all go on to greater success in life.
Well said. More than anything else, I've hated what this campaign has brought out in Britain over the past few months - i hope this can be the attitude as we move on from such a divisive referendum.
What is worse - bringing it out or having it festering under the surface with our leaders pretending the issues are not significant
Time will tell. I'm not sure where the frustrations with immigration, identity and foreigners will go now they are in the open, if it is to be a Remain. Especially with the press we have.
P.S. Would it be rude to ask where in Bedfordshire you are? We may be round the corner from each other.
I always think things are better off out in the open. Look what happened to the BNP when they finally stopped blackballing Griffin and let him go on question time. Never glad confident morning again.
Roughly half way between Bedford and Luton. How about you?
I made it. Got into the station at 9.47. Ran to the car, broke every speed limit and got there as they were preparing to close down. I was the second last in; the last person was also a late train casualty and also Remain.
I made it. Got into the station at 9.47. Ran to the car, broke every speed limit and got there as they were preparing to close down. I was the second last in; the last person was also a late train casualty and also Remain.
Very pleased to have taken part!
Well done Southam. If anyone deserved their say then you did!
I made it. Got into the station at 9.47. Ran to the car, broke every speed limit and got there as they were preparing to close down. I was the second last in; the last person was also a late train casualty and also Remain.
Very pleased to have taken part!
Best news I've heard all day. Well done
Brilliant. Would have been tragic to have missed it
Yaaay.
Did you have the theme tune to Dick Barton on on your car stereo and say No one expects.... as you burst in?
I made it. Got into the station at 9.47. Ran to the car, broke every speed limit and got there as they were preparing to close down. I was the second last in; the last person was also a late train casualty and also Remain.
So frustrating. Stuck just outside Banbury now. Am not the only one who is missing out. There are a few of us in the same spot, it seems. Remainers, unfortunately. Or maybe there are some shy Leavers too :-)
I would move voting to the weekend, possibly over both days, so that instances like this were rarer.
Spot on', move it to a Sunday and let working people have a level playing field with the OAPs and the unemployed
There's no real reason not to do that is there?
All of the reasons offered as to why it's usually a Thursday are historic and no longer relevant. Given the labour involved, however, Sunday would be a more expensive choice.
It does always amuse me that our stand is "Our elections are always on thursday for historical reasons, we're not totally sure what the reasons were but they were definitely historical".
(Take your pick of early closing day, before payday so people were less likely to be drunk, market day, so that results would be revealed on friday and the government have the weekend to form, avoiding sundays so the church wouldn't have too much influence. Plenty of options).
USA has elections on a Tuesday. Why?
Best I can do googling around suggests that it avoided market day (wednesday) and the Sabbath (Sunday). They set there's in 1845 when they were still were focussed on such things.
Up until 1918 we had a very civilised method of doing it over several days. People could follow the results in the daily newspaper, and I seem to remember certainly many seats (and possibly an election) being swung because resources could be adjusted mid-election to campaign in unexpectedly endangered seats.
The exit poll was pretty good, it had LDs within two seats, UKIP within one, and it got the Tories within about 15.
The GE exit poll did not in fact predict a "hung parliament".
It predicted "conservatives largest party".
It did this because Curtice et al from their research had a sense that the Tories were going to get an overall majority, but it seemed so far off the consensus that they didn't want to call it at 10pm.
They therefore opted for a new verdict, not a hung parliament, not a Tory majority but the "conservatives to get the largest number of seats".
This left open the possiblity of a Tory majority while avoiding an outcry if it had been a hung parliament with the Tories the largest party after all.
It was the mugs who piled into overall majority at 1/10 who complained the exit poll called it wrong.
It didn't - it never spelt out a hung parliament. Curtice knew at 10pm a Tory majority was the most likely result.
The exit poll was very clear how many seats it was predicting for the Tories and the Tories were well short of a majority.
Can you back this up please? during the course of the night a projected number of seats appeared on the ticker at the bottom of the screen updating based on results, but the original exit poll at 10pm did not, to my knowledge, predict a number of seats.
It predicted only this: "Conservatives largest party with most seats". There was no seat prediction until results started coming in to my knowledge, unless you can marshal evidence here to the contrary.
will someone please tell ALL the politicians that there is no such thing as EU money
It is our money sent to the EU
But this isn't really a point at all, the same could be said of your council's money or government money. Or of course your own money, which one way or another someone has given to you.
Let's compare referendum wines! I'm guzzling Capologno di Torbe Amarone, 2009. And delicious it is. Mmmmmmmm. *falls over, slightly*
Mine is a pleasant MontiFalco
Guiness West Indian Porter for me, recommended!
Export stout from The Kernel Brewery for me, which I would highly recommend if you like the porter. Bit beardy hipster maybe, but it is a delicious brew.
In a way, EURef is a bit like the cask vs craft keg debate tearing apart CaMRA at the moment (slight joke).
The exit poll was pretty good, it had LDs within two seats, UKIP within one, and it got the Tories within about 15.
The GE exit poll did not in fact predict a "hung parliament".
It predicted "conservatives largest party".
It did this because Curtice et al from their research had a sense that the Tories were going to get an overall majority, but it seemed so far off the consensus that they didn't want to call it at 10pm.
They therefore opted for a new verdict, not a hung parliament, not a Tory majority but the "conservatives to get the largest number of seats".
This left open the possiblity of a Tory majority while avoiding an outcry if it had been a hung parliament with the Tories the largest party after all.
It was the mugs who piled into overall majority at 1/10 who complained the exit poll called it wrong.
It didn't - it never spelt out a hung parliament. Curtice knew at 10pm a Tory majority was the most likely result.
The exit poll was very clear how many seats it was predicting for the Tories and the Tories were well short of a majority.
Can you back this up please? during the course of the night a projected number of seats appeared on the ticker at the bottom of the screen updating based on results, but the original exit poll at 10pm did not, to my knowledge, predict a number of seats.
It predicted only this: "Conservatives largest party with most seats". There was no seat prediction until results started coming in to my knowledge, unless you can marshal evidence here to the contrary.
The exit poll was pretty good, it had LDs within two seats, UKIP within one, and it got the Tories within about 15.
The GE exit poll did not in fact predict a "hung parliament".
It predicted "conservatives largest party".
It did this because Curtice et al from their research had a sense that the Tories were going to get an overall majority, but it seemed so far off the consensus that they didn't want to call it at 10pm.
They therefore opted for a new verdict, not a hung parliament, not a Tory majority but the "conservatives to get the largest number of seats".
This left open the possiblity of a Tory majority while avoiding an outcry if it had been a hung parliament with the Tories the largest party after all.
It was the mugs who piled into overall majority at 1/10 who complained the exit poll called it wrong.
It didn't - it never spelt out a hung parliament. Curtice knew at 10pm a Tory majority was the most likely result.
The exit poll was very clear how many seats it was predicting for the Tories and the Tories were well short of a majority.
Can you back this up please? during the course of the night a projected number of seats appeared on the ticker at the bottom of the screen updating based on results, but the original exit poll at 10pm did not, to my knowledge, predict a number of seats.
It predicted only this: "Conservatives largest party with most seats". There was no seat prediction until results started coming in to my knowledge, unless you can marshal evidence here to the contrary.
It did. From memory it predicted Tories on 316 seats.
A point prediction was the brief for Curtice's team, but he was at pains early in the night to say the lack of "Hung Parliament" in the headline was significant (in 2010 it was "Hung Parliament - Cons Largest Party"). With a margin of error of 15 or 20 seats, they couldn't rule out a majority.
Sell sterling, Mr. G.. The economic essentials haven't changed.
Except that by historic standards 1.5 is low. More interesting is the stock market. If remain do win I expect the boost will carry through into early next week, but would expect a selling sweet spot to present itself midweek
The pound used to be worth multiple dollars, what history period are you talking about
so when do we get the first bit of feed back from the counts???
1145ish...
sorry NOT declarations I mean gossip feedback speculation and wishful thinking
It's tough to say because you're talking about fine margins here, there's a huge difference between Leave getting 53% or 58% in Sunderland which is actually quite a small difference.
I wonder if we may see an indyref result, where exceptional turnout surprisingly favoured NO, as quiet loyalists showed up and voted.
I think quiet middle classes and lower middle classes have come out and surprisingly favoured IN, because Project Fear.
The difference is that Indyref turnout was higher by the same amounts in each area as at a General or Scottish election. I don't think that will happen here, we could be getting 80% in the WWC shires and sub 70% in Scotland and Metropolitan areas outside London.
That will make a huge distortion to the way polls predict the outcome.
I don't think that's the case. Turnout was high in Glasgow at Indyref. Having said that the demographics are different this time. Older people and professionals both tended to No but will tend different directions time.
On a somewhat serious point for a moment. There are many people here on both sides who fought hard. I know TSE and Casino_Royale, and many others, have given up their time and have canvassed and campaigned, and that effort should be recognised.
By 6am tomorrow somebody will have lost. I won't patronise you: I hope REMAIN will win. But regardless of who wins, I would like to thank all those here on both sides, REMAIN and LEAVE, who took the time and effort to voice their thoughts and experiences. It would not have been the same without you, and even if you lose, I hope you all go on to greater success in life.
so when do we get the first bit of feed back from the counts???
1145ish...
sorry NOT declarations I mean gossip feedback speculation and wishful thinking
In the urban areas where boxes come in quickest, the people at the counts will be starting to get some sort of an impression around about now. The catch for them is that a ballot box is upside-down archaeological, in the sense that when emptied upside down the papers at the top are the oldest, morning votes. Given the assumed bias towards leave amongst the retired population, I'd expect the daytime slices of the box will lean towards leave and the evening towards remain, as the workers start to come home. Normally when doing a verification tally you're looking at one slice of a box...
Comments
Not confident of a Remain win.
Looks like Eggheads, and an interview with Muhammed Ali...
55% Leave is the figure to look for.
You should be writing in The Guardian with sentiments like that.
In fact, I think I'm going to open a bottle.
Farage saying Remain have edged it.
UKIP saying Leave have edged it.
Clear as mud.
They really do need rid of Farage, all the more so if they are supposed to take advantage of a very close result.
Deferred gratification and all that.
NEW THREAD NEW THREAD NEW THREAD NEW THREAD
Not saying I won't move on to Aberlour.
P.S. Would it be rude to ask where in Bedfordshire you are? We may be round the corner from each other.
It predicted "conservatives largest party".
It did this because Curtice et al from their research had a sense that the Tories were going to get an overall majority, but it seemed so far off the consensus that they didn't want to call it at 10pm.
They therefore opted for a new verdict, not a hung parliament, not a Tory majority but the "conservatives to get the largest number of seats".
This left open the possiblity of a Tory majority while avoiding an outcry if it had been a hung parliament with the Tories the largest party after all.
It was the mugs who piled into overall majority at 1/10 who complained the exit poll called it wrong.
It didn't - it never spelt out a hung parliament. Curtice knew at 10pm a Tory majority was the most likely result.
Sobriety now.
Very pleased to have taken part!
Anyway, which ever way this result goes, this is still a fantastic country to live in and we really are very lucky, particularly when you look at other parts of the world.
Goodnight.
The result is nowhere near that certain right now.
Central: 60.3%
East: 61.1%
North: 66.1%
Sunderland was down in the mid-to-late 50s.
And this is before we know about a single result!
You deserve a glass of.......
It predicted only this: "Conservatives largest party with most seats". There was no seat prediction until results started coming in to my knowledge, unless you can marshal evidence here to the contrary.
But, I don't expect either the UK Government or EU to learn much from it.
I always think things are better off out in the open. Look what happened to the BNP when they finally stopped blackballing Griffin and let him go on question time. Never glad confident morning again.
Roughly half way between Bedford and Luton. How about you?
Poor choice-too floral
Did you have the theme tune to Dick Barton on on your car stereo and say No one expects.... as you burst in?
(Still one of the most enjoyable scenes in the movies)
It is our money sent to the EU
Up until 1918 we had a very civilised method of doing it over several days. People could follow the results in the daily newspaper, and I seem to remember certainly many seats (and possibly an election) being swung because resources could be adjusted mid-election to campaign in unexpectedly endangered seats.
From now on it is the EUs money.
They might give us some if they feel like it.
In a way, EURef is a bit like the cask vs craft keg debate tearing apart CaMRA at the moment (slight joke).
NOT declarations
I mean gossip feedback speculation and wishful thinking