politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Four of the last pollsters to report have LEAVE doing bette
Comments
-
17% in 2011Paul_Bedfordshire said:
What is the dont know aka Im not telling you in case you are neoparamilitary nutter not a pollster?Sunil_Prasannan said:
I thought Catholics were a minority in NI?chestnut said:Latest Northern Ireland Poll : Remain 57.8 Leave 42.2
http://lucidtalk.co.uk/images/News/LTJuneTrackerPollResults-MainReportPublic.pdf0 -
MD - that's complete conjecture isn't it? The chance of the Egyptian Super-state saying that they don't have a clue must be small.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Tyson, must admit that modern painters aren't a group with which I'm familiar.
Ramses II lived so long it was a disaster when he died. All his children were already dead and nobody could remember how the ceremonies for a new pharaoh were meant to go.0 -
The problem is that "experts" have been soundly abused by the Remain camp. If a scientist talks to me about his or her area of expertise I'm fascinated and keen to learn more. If they talk to me about university finance I get a little bit skeptical about vested interests. If they talk to me about politics, I'll give their views as much time as I did give to the views of, say, Posh Spice.SouthamObserver said:
Yep, that's how I see it. Experts can be safely ignored in our new post-truth world. I don't think it is a huge coincidence that every Unionist big hitter in Scotland is on the Remain side. They know what's coming when we Leave.Lowlander said:
Yes, I think you are right. A Leave vote is the ideal scenario for Scottish Independence. If the economy doesn't tank, the warnings will fail next referendum, if it does tank, there is going to be no reason not to jettison the rest of the UK. Its a proper win/win.SouthamObserver said:
Yep, that sounds about right to me. Though if things really tank post-Brexit, Scots may well conclude that they have very little left to lose anyway. If English voters can vote against their economic self-interest, why not Scots?Lowlander said:
In terms of Scottish Independence, a Brexit vote puts Unionists in a rather difficult situation. They need to hope that the fallout post Leave is bad enough to confirm their dire warnings. If it is not, and I think it will be relatively benign, then the likelihood of another Project Fear working in a second Indyref becomes very unlikely.SeanT said:
PS how do you think BREXIT would play out in Scotland?DavidL said:I have consistently said that I expected Remain to win and frankly expected them to win fairly easily given all the advantages that they had.
Now, at the end of days (according to Alastair at least) I have changed my mind. I think Leave are going to win. Just. Or Remain. Not sure. Yeah, Leave. 52:48.
Gulp.
I think Sturgeon is bluffing. She won't call indyref 2 on the basis of a future iScotland joining the EU because that really WOULD mean frontiers at Berwick and a true currency nightmare. so even if she could negotiate the legal obstacles to a second vote (very hard as the UK would at the same time be thrashing out its own EU divorce) she'd likely lose her next referendum, too.
But I have called Scottish politics wrong, in the recent past. And she would be under severe pressure from frothier Nats to stage another plebiscite.
That's not good for the Establishment. Hope the economy tanks or accept Scotland goes her own way. A poorer Britain or a broken Britain, if you will.0 -
Or me?Charles said:
Remember Stuart TruthTheScreamingEagles said:
You wrote Sorry but Remain have had it.Paul_Bedfordshire said:
Hubris? I was being kind and working on 100% turnout.TheScreamingEagles said:
'Kin hell, even IOS would blush at the hubris you're displaying.Paul_Bedfordshire said:The maths are awful for Remain. As I said this morning.
Electorate 46 Million
NI, Scotland, London = 10 Million
Wales and Rest of England = 36 Million.
Even if Scotland/NI/London vote 70-30 remain a 55.5-44.5 leave vote in Rest of England is enough.
Outside the university cities like Oxford, Norwich, Exeter and a few other Cities like Brighton & Manchester (city not greater) where will the votes for Remain come from?
Sorry but Remain have had it.
If you want hubris plug the yougov age/turnout figures in and it gets even worse for remain.
maths dosent lie
Considering your hyperbole the other day that 27% of the electorate have already voted for Leave by post, I'm finding your posts really funny.
*innocent face*0 -
Indeed, I would agree Leave will certainly win provincial England, if Remain win 51-49 it will be touch and go whether London adds enough to Remain's total to take it over 50% in Englandkle4 said:
If Remain has to win I would actually hope Leave is under in England and Wales, just so there less (but not no) hard feelings about the biggest Home nation voting for Leave. I know include London separate to the south, but it is the capital, so it's ok it pushes Leave in England under 50, it counts.HYUFD said:
Including London England and Wales may well be under 50% Leave , excluding London I would agree it will probably be above 50% Leave but still not above 55%Paul_Bedfordshire said:
Scotland I agree, but NI and London will bring down the average.HYUFD said:
I will also argue Leave will be much nearer 50% than 55% in England and Wales if they break 50% at all, in Scotland Remain will certainly get more than 60%Paul_Bedfordshire said:
And I will raise you with remain wont get anywhere near the 70% worst case I assumed in those places. Probably nearer 60-40HYUFD said:
Rubbish, the Kent poll posted earlier showed Remain winning Tunbridge Wells, Tonbridge and Malling, Sevenoaks, Canterbury and Gravesham. Yes Leave won more Kent seats overall but results like that should be enough to keep Leave under 55% across England even if it wins a majority in England thus allowing Scotland and London to give Remain a narrow lead across the UKPaul_Bedfordshire said:The maths are awful for Remain. As I said this morning.
Electorate 46 Million
NI, Scotland, London = 10 Million
Wales and Rest of England = 36 Million.
Even if Scotland/NI/London vote 70-30 remain a 55.5-44.5 leave vote in Rest of England is enough.
Outside the university cities like Oxford, Norwich, Exeter and a few other Cities like Brighton & Manchester (city not greater) where will the votes for Remain come from?
Sorry but Remain have had it.
If you think rest of england and wales excl london will get below 50% you are being very optimistic to say the least.0 -
I wouldn't concede yet - I have a sense that the result is going to surprise, though which way I don't know.Richard_Nabavi said:I think I might as well concede now that my 37.22% Leave entry in the February PB competition is not gonna be a winner!
I might do OK on turnout at 68.57%, though.
Then again I'm probably wrong.
0 -
I may have been a tad optomistic too with Leave on 41.57. It is probably going to be a percent or two above that.Richard_Nabavi said:I think I might as well concede now that my 37.22% Leave entry in the February PB competition is not gonna be a winner!
I might do OK on turnout at 68.57%, though.
;-)0 -
My current verdict ...
Mr Toad 52% Stoats and Weasels 48%
But it could be the other way round.0 -
The numbers don't look right, do they?Sunil_Prasannan said:
I thought Catholics were a minority in NI?chestnut said:Latest Northern Ireland Poll : Remain 57.8 Leave 42.2
http://lucidtalk.co.uk/images/News/LTJuneTrackerPollResults-MainReportPublic.pdf
When I put their percentages in along the unionist/republican divide it's much more like 53-47 than 58-42.
6% lead is less than 50,000 votes based on last year's GE turnout.0 -
*** Anecdote Alert ***
I have no anecdotes.
Does that make me a failure in PB world or someone who spends too much time in the real world ?
Actually I do have a few utterly insignificant anecdotes but I'd have to multiply them by ten to make them seem worthwhile. Is that what you're meant to do ?
0 -
No one has a clue. Personally, I think it may swing quite a chunk on the day. Also don't know which way.another_richard said:
I wouldn't concede yet - I have a sense that the result is going to surprise, though which way I don't know.Richard_Nabavi said:I think I might as well concede now that my 37.22% Leave entry in the February PB competition is not gonna be a winner!
I might do OK on turnout at 68.57%, though.
Then again I'm probably wrong.0 -
Although not yet coming off the fence as such, OGH seems to be giving us a gentle nudge towards LEAVE.
Looking at the state of the polls and their direction of travel, it seems extraordinary to me that 36 hours before the polling stations open it's still possible to back LEAVE at fully 3/1.
I can only assume that there is a firm belief that when it actually comes to entering the cross in the box the status quo/hold on to nurse factor, call it what you will, comes into play and will ultimately determine the outcome in favour of REMAIN.
That may well prove to be the case, but I for one wouldn't be prepared to bet on it at odds of 1/4.
0 -
6000 at this debate tonight. Segregation of opposing sides, Stewards down the middle?
Wonder is someone will smuggle a flare in.0 -
I'd say it prospered between 1460 and 1509 before being frittered away on monarchical grandstanding and religious bigotry during the following half century.Charles said:
1189 - 1558?taffys said:I note you start with "If the UK prospers". That is a big if.
Really??
I would suggest that history is overwhelmingly against you.
When, in the last 10 centuries of freedom and independence has England/Britain NOT prospered, relatively?
0 -
Mr. Dancer, medieval life-expectancy figures are often skewed by the very large numbers of people who died in childhood. If a person could get through to adulthood, then they had a pretty good chance of making a decent innings. That applied especially to the wealthier classes who lived in more sanitary conditions and so were less exposed to the infectious diseases that today we shrug off but in those days were real killers.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Tyson, longevity can be dashed hard to predict. In the Middle Ages life expectancy was atrocious, but Henry III, Edward I and Edward III all lived very long lives (Edward II didn't, but that was due to incompetence on his part).
Until the mid-twentieth century possibly the biggest medical advance in terms of lives saved was getting doctors to wash their hands before and after attending ladies in childbirth.0 -
Look away nowCasino_Royale said:
No one has a clue. Personally, I think it may swing quite a chunk on the day. Also don't know which way.another_richard said:
I wouldn't concede yet - I have a sense that the result is going to surprise, though which way I don't know.Richard_Nabavi said:I think I might as well concede now that my 37.22% Leave entry in the February PB competition is not gonna be a winner!
I might do OK on turnout at 68.57%, though.
Then again I'm probably wrong.
https://twitter.com/StrongerIn/status/7453162106450165760 -
Any Russians?OUT said:6000 at this debate tonight. Segregation of opposing sides, Stewards down the middle?
Wonder is someone will smuggle a flare in.
0 -
That has a bit of a hostage-video look to it.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Bearing in mind the leave campaign has been a shambles, this gentlemen tipping remain means I might have a flutter on leave.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Double bluffTheScreamingEagles said: 0 -
If you add in the totals for NI Remain parties at the general election (25% SF, 16% UUP, 14% SDLP, 9% Alliance) you get to 64% while the NI Leave parties (26% DUP, 3% UKIP, 2% TUV) total 31%chestnut said:
The numbers don't look right, do they?Sunil_Prasannan said:
I thought Catholics were a minority in NI?chestnut said:Latest Northern Ireland Poll : Remain 57.8 Leave 42.2
http://lucidtalk.co.uk/images/News/LTJuneTrackerPollResults-MainReportPublic.pdf
When I put their percentages in along the unionist/republican divide it's much more like 53-47 than 58-42.
6% lead is less than 50,000 votes based on last year's GE turnout.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2015/results/northern_ireland0 -
Very wise indeed, I was reaching for my turnip.Paul_Bedfordshire said:
God Save our Gracious Queen.taffys said:The papers are all over the Queen's three questions
Is this getting serious?
Long live our noble Queen.
God Save our Queen.
Send her victorious.
Happy and Glorious.
Long to reign over us.
God save our Queen.
I will stop here before I write some stanzas that will really annoy Malcolm in a General Way(de)0 -
No one takes 007 hostage, well apart the North Koreans, but we're all better off pretending Die Another Day didn't happenRichard_Nabavi said:
That has a bit of a hostage-video look to it.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
BBC has a shortened evening news for the football tonight. And its being dominated by an interview with Jo Cox widower. The first 6 minutes of a 15 minute bulletin. Then they follow it up with Dave's pleading at the lectern.
If anything, I would suggest the BBC bias this week is worse than that in the Scottish referendum.0 -
During the War of the Roses?!?another_richard said:
I'd say it prospered between 1460 and 1509 before being frittered away on monarchical grandstanding and religious bigotry during the following half century.Charles said:
1189 - 1558?taffys said:I note you start with "If the UK prospers". That is a big if.
Really??
I would suggest that history is overwhelmingly against you.
When, in the last 10 centuries of freedom and independence has England/Britain NOT prospered, relatively?0 -
Since when does 007 answer to Brussels in any of his movies?TheScreamingEagles said:
Look away nowCasino_Royale said:
No one has a clue. Personally, I think it may swing quite a chunk on the day. Also don't know which way.another_richard said:
I wouldn't concede yet - I have a sense that the result is going to surprise, though which way I don't know.Richard_Nabavi said:I think I might as well concede now that my 37.22% Leave entry in the February PB competition is not gonna be a winner!
I might do OK on turnout at 68.57%, though.
Then again I'm probably wrong.
https://twitter.com/StrongerIn/status/7453162106450165760 -
You also need to factor in the voting rate. NI has a truly terrible turnout rate.HYUFD said:
If you add in the totals for NI Remain parties at the general election (25% SF, 16% UUP, 14% SDLP, 9% Alliance) you get to 64% while the NI Leave parties (26% DUP, 3% UKIP, 2% TUV) total 31%chestnut said:
The numbers don't look right, do they?Sunil_Prasannan said:
I thought Catholics were a minority in NI?chestnut said:Latest Northern Ireland Poll : Remain 57.8 Leave 42.2
http://lucidtalk.co.uk/images/News/LTJuneTrackerPollResults-MainReportPublic.pdf
When I put their percentages in along the unionist/republican divide it's much more like 53-47 than 58-42.
6% lead is less than 50,000 votes based on last year's GE turnout.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2015/results/northern_ireland0 -
Almost exactly the ORB certain to vote intention in its poll last nightTheScreamingEagles said:0 -
From this morning a good explanation of the UK's economic problems and the mentality behind them:
I've said repeatedly here and elsewhere that we have to concentrate on quality of life rather than wealth and living standards.david_herdson said:
Addressing that means addressing the 'spend,me, now' culture. We are living greatly beyond our means, borrowing from the future and selling off the past, as well as spending today's income. Putting things back on a stable footing will mean addressing that mentality as much as the finances.rcs1000 said:Re Soros:
I haven't read his piece, but I think the case that the UK economy is uniquely vulnerable does have some merit. I call this the Triple Deficit problem.
Of all the major economies in the world, we run by far the biggest current account deficit (current account is like trade balance, plus a few other things, such as investment income / cost). This means that to pay our bills, we need to import capital from abroad. This can be achieved in a number of ways: we can issue debt that is bought by foreigners, or we can sell assets (like expensive London real estate or British businesses). In both cases, however, the impact is that you bring capital into the UK now, but you set up a long-term stream of payments out of the UK. It becomes, therefore, a long-term tax on the UK economy.
Furthermore, we still have one of the worst budget deficits of the major economies. This means that we have remarkably little flexibility should things go wrong.
Finally, UK households are extremely indebted. Yes, yes, I know this is because house prices are so high in the UK. But this also brings with it fragility: imagine that UK housing moved down 25% in Sterling terms. (And I believe - and I realise I'm in a minority of one - that prime London could easily move 50%.)
The problem is a simple one: staying in the EU is likely to exacerbate these issues over time. Leaving the EU is likely to result in them being solved in an extremely painful and abrupt manner.
One of the many problems in using wealth as a measure of success is that it encourages resentment to others - if 'keeping up with the Joneses' is how you are judged, then taking from the Joneses becomes an inevitable goal.
0 -
They have already done a division on party identifiers and given percentages.HYUFD said:
If you add in the totals for NI Remain parties at the general election (25% SF, 16% UUP, 14% SDLP, 9% Alliance) you get to 64% while the NI Leave parties (26% DUP, 3% UKIP, 2% TUV) total 31%chestnut said:
The numbers don't look right, do they?Sunil_Prasannan said:
I thought Catholics were a minority in NI?chestnut said:Latest Northern Ireland Poll : Remain 57.8 Leave 42.2
http://lucidtalk.co.uk/images/News/LTJuneTrackerPollResults-MainReportPublic.pdf
When I put their percentages in along the unionist/republican divide it's much more like 53-47 than 58-42.
6% lead is less than 50,000 votes based on last year's GE turnout.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2015/results/northern_ireland0 -
150,000 total more people registered to vote than at GE, but 100,000 less in Scotland.0
-
It appears I was on Leave just over 44%.
I hope I'm wrong and that it was a prediction for London alone.0 -
Given the UUP backs Remain and is the second largest Unionist Party, 58-42 Remain in NI looks highly plausible to me!chestnut said:
They have already done a division on party identifiers and given percentages.HYUFD said:
If you add in the totals for NI Remain parties at the general election (25% SF, 16% UUP, 14% SDLP, 9% Alliance) you get to 64% while the NI Leave parties (26% DUP, 3% UKIP, 2% TUV) total 31%chestnut said:
The numbers don't look right, do they?Sunil_Prasannan said:
I thought Catholics were a minority in NI?chestnut said:Latest Northern Ireland Poll : Remain 57.8 Leave 42.2
http://lucidtalk.co.uk/images/News/LTJuneTrackerPollResults-MainReportPublic.pdf
When I put their percentages in along the unionist/republican divide it's much more like 53-47 than 58-42.
6% lead is less than 50,000 votes based on last year's GE turnout.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2015/results/northern_ireland0 -
''If anything, I would suggest the BBC bias this week is worse than that in the Scottish referendum. ''
Agreed.
Quite how this man was given so much airtime utterly beggars belief. Quite disgraceful0 -
Who the fuck is Bobby George...or have you made that up ?Sunil_Prasannan said:
Since when does 007 answer to Brussels in any of his movies?TheScreamingEagles said:
Look away nowCasino_Royale said:
No one has a clue. Personally, I think it may swing quite a chunk on the day. Also don't know which way.another_richard said:
I wouldn't concede yet - I have a sense that the result is going to surprise, though which way I don't know.Richard_Nabavi said:I think I might as well concede now that my 37.22% Leave entry in the February PB competition is not gonna be a winner!
I might do OK on turnout at 68.57%, though.
Then again I'm probably wrong.
https://twitter.com/StrongerIn/status/7453162106450165760 -
Edward IV was a very progressive king IIRC and Towton in 1461 was the decisive battle.Charles said:
During the War of the Roses?!?another_richard said:
I'd say it prospered between 1460 and 1509 before being frittered away on monarchical grandstanding and religious bigotry during the following half century.Charles said:
1189 - 1558?taffys said:I note you start with "If the UK prospers". That is a big if.
Really??
I would suggest that history is overwhelmingly against you.
When, in the last 10 centuries of freedom and independence has England/Britain NOT prospered, relatively?
0 -
A little dickie bird tells me the Survation poll has Northern Ireland backing Leave by 4:1.
So if you lop off the Northern Ireland result, GB is backing Remain by 3%0 -
LOLzBill_Somebody said:
Or me?Charles said:
Remember Stuart TruthTheScreamingEagles said:
You wrote Sorry but Remain have had it.Paul_Bedfordshire said:
Hubris? I was being kind and working on 100% turnout.TheScreamingEagles said:
'Kin hell, even IOS would blush at the hubris you're displaying.Paul_Bedfordshire said:The maths are awful for Remain. As I said this morning.
Electorate 46 Million
NI, Scotland, London = 10 Million
Wales and Rest of England = 36 Million.
Even if Scotland/NI/London vote 70-30 remain a 55.5-44.5 leave vote in Rest of England is enough.
Outside the university cities like Oxford, Norwich, Exeter and a few other Cities like Brighton & Manchester (city not greater) where will the votes for Remain come from?
Sorry but Remain have had it.
If you want hubris plug the yougov age/turnout figures in and it gets even worse for remain.
maths dosent lie
Considering your hyperbole the other day that 27% of the electorate have already voted for Leave by post, I'm finding your posts really funny.
*innocent face*0 -
Tempers starting to fray here, emotions running high, insults coming thick and fast, no real surprise as the vote gets nearer. Whatever the result, one side will be elated, the other in the depths of despair - but - life will go on, whoever loses will get over it, and eventually normality will return.
Personally, I'll probably be better off with a Remain vote (I have a sizeable share portfolio), but I still believe Leave is the way to go - even if I lose out in the short term.0 -
Kim Jong Un for Leave? Well he was for Indy, so I guess he has form.TheScreamingEagles said:
No one takes 007 hostage, well apart the North Koreans, but we're all better off pretending Die Another Day didn't happenRichard_Nabavi said:
That has a bit of a hostage-video look to it.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
58% turned out in NI at the general election last year, not great but similar to the turnout at the 2001 UK general electionLowlander said:
You also need to factor in the voting rate. NI has a truly terrible turnout rate.HYUFD said:
If you add in the totals for NI Remain parties at the general election (25% SF, 16% UUP, 14% SDLP, 9% Alliance) you get to 64% while the NI Leave parties (26% DUP, 3% UKIP, 2% TUV) total 31%chestnut said:
The numbers don't look right, do they?Sunil_Prasannan said:
I thought Catholics were a minority in NI?chestnut said:Latest Northern Ireland Poll : Remain 57.8 Leave 42.2
http://lucidtalk.co.uk/images/News/LTJuneTrackerPollResults-MainReportPublic.pdf
When I put their percentages in along the unionist/republican divide it's much more like 53-47 than 58-42.
6% lead is less than 50,000 votes based on last year's GE turnout.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2015/results/northern_ireland0 -
It was TSE wot posted the Daniel Craig picture, not me!NoEasyDay said:
Who the fuck is Bobby George...or have you made that up ?Sunil_Prasannan said:
Since when does 007 answer to Brussels in any of his movies?TheScreamingEagles said:
Look away nowCasino_Royale said:
No one has a clue. Personally, I think it may swing quite a chunk on the day. Also don't know which way.another_richard said:
I wouldn't concede yet - I have a sense that the result is going to surprise, though which way I don't know.Richard_Nabavi said:I think I might as well concede now that my 37.22% Leave entry in the February PB competition is not gonna be a winner!
I might do OK on turnout at 68.57%, though.
Then again I'm probably wrong.
https://twitter.com/StrongerIn/status/7453162106450165760 -
Why do you think David Cameron spoke from Downing Street this pm if it wasn't to dominate the news until the post BBC debate tonight. Then tomorrow Beckham and James Bond featuring before the Jo Cox event in the afternoon. There could be a big 'cock up' tonight from either side and this event is important to both sidesLowlander said:BBC has a shortened evening news for the football tonight. And its being dominated by an interview with Jo Cox widower. The first 6 minutes of a 15 minute bulletin. Then they follow it up with Dave's pleading at the lectern.
If anything, I would suggest the BBC bias this week is worse than that in the Scottish referendum.0 -
It would be highly amusing if England and Wales voted narrowly Leave, Scotland voted Remain but not by enough to overturn the English and Welsh vote and we had to wait for NI to declare to get a result. NI declares and puts Remain ahead by 50.01% entirely due to UUP voters. So we Remain in the EU due to the Ulster Unionist Party!0
-
If I didnt know you better I would say you were trolling.TheScreamingEagles said:A little dickie bird tells me the Survation poll has Northern Ireland backing Leave by 4:1.
So if you lop off the Northern Ireland result, GB is backing Remain by 3%
NI 80% leave?0 -
I doubt every single UUP voter will be REMAIN!HYUFD said:It would be highly amusing if England and Wales voted narrowly Leave, Scotland voted Remain but not by enough to overturn the English and Welsh vote and we had to wait for NI to declare to get a result. NI declares and puts Remain ahead by 50.01% entirely due to UUP voters. So we Remain in the EU due to the Ulster Unionist Party!
0 -
I'll give you Edward IV (at least in his early years), but post 1483 I really struggle.another_richard said:
Edward IV was a very progressive king IIRC and Towton in 1461 was the decisive battle.Charles said:
During the War of the Roses?!?another_richard said:
I'd say it prospered between 1460 and 1509 before being frittered away on monarchical grandstanding and religious bigotry during the following half century.Charles said:
1189 - 1558?taffys said:I note you start with "If the UK prospers". That is a big if.
Really??
I would suggest that history is overwhelmingly against you.
When, in the last 10 centuries of freedom and independence has England/Britain NOT prospered, relatively?
Don't forget the question was "relatively" not absolutely.0 -
We are presumably allowed to have an opinion on the various options on offer, aren't we?Omnium said:
We vote the way we wish to. Do you really believe that it's somehow indecent to vote to Leave?AlastairMeeks said:@DavidL I don't think a Leave vote would be the end of days. It would be less important for the decision itself and more important for how the decision had been made.
It would be a terrible blow to the essential decency of this nation, a blow against openness to the outside world and a blow against any rational weighing of evidence. It would mean that xenophobic playing on public fears had been successful. It would mean that the confederacy of dunces tallied over 50% of the voting public. All that would be a terrible indictment of the British people.
I would be fearful for the future of the country, given the many entirely unnecessary risks that Britain would now be running, but more than that I would feel a deep sense of shame for the bad way in which my country had made a bad decision. I expect that one way or another Britain would make the best of a bad job if it voted to Leave, but it would be a bad job.
The Leave campaign has been based on lies (£350m, Turkey, etc) and fear (Breaking Point). And has allowed people to feel that disliking long, winding queues of refugees is ok, under the guise of wanting to leave the largest trading bloc on the planet, which consumes nearly half our exports.
There is certainly a debate to be had about immigration, but the country will have thrown the baby out with the bath water by voting to leave the EU under the guise of having that debate.0 -
Bobby GeorgeSunil_Prasannan said:
It was TSE wot posted the Daniel Craig picture, not me!NoEasyDay said:
Who the fuck is Bobby George...or have you made that up ?Sunil_Prasannan said:
Since when does 007 answer to Brussels in any of his movies?TheScreamingEagles said:
Look away nowCasino_Royale said:
No one has a clue. Personally, I think it may swing quite a chunk on the day. Also don't know which way.another_richard said:
I wouldn't concede yet - I have a sense that the result is going to surprise, though which way I don't know.Richard_Nabavi said:I think I might as well concede now that my 37.22% Leave entry in the February PB competition is not gonna be a winner!
I might do OK on turnout at 68.57%, though.
Then again I'm probably wrong.
https://twitter.com/StrongerIn/status/745316210645016576
Darts Player
Jesus Wept next it'll be Basil Brush and Mrs Piggy0 -
Darts player, gold chain wearer, and professional geezer.NoEasyDay said:
Who the fuck is Bobby George...or have you made that up ?Sunil_Prasannan said:
Since when does 007 answer to Brussels in any of his movies?TheScreamingEagles said:
Look away nowCasino_Royale said:
No one has a clue. Personally, I think it may swing quite a chunk on the day. Also don't know which way.another_richard said:
I wouldn't concede yet - I have a sense that the result is going to surprise, though which way I don't know.Richard_Nabavi said:I think I might as well concede now that my 37.22% Leave entry in the February PB competition is not gonna be a winner!
I might do OK on turnout at 68.57%, though.
Then again I'm probably wrong.
https://twitter.com/StrongerIn/status/7453162106450165760 -
@TSE - yup, hardly a surprise. I thought that might happen earlier today.
It's clear Remain have been very busy with the celeb endorsements. I expect Attenborough as well soon.0 -
An intellectual then, Osborne needs someone like him, someone that can add up.Anorak said:
Darts player, gold chain wearer, and professional geezer.NoEasyDay said:
Who the fuck is Bobby George...or have you made that up ?Sunil_Prasannan said:
Since when does 007 answer to Brussels in any of his movies?TheScreamingEagles said:
Look away nowCasino_Royale said:
No one has a clue. Personally, I think it may swing quite a chunk on the day. Also don't know which way.another_richard said:
I wouldn't concede yet - I have a sense that the result is going to surprise, though which way I don't know.Richard_Nabavi said:I think I might as well concede now that my 37.22% Leave entry in the February PB competition is not gonna be a winner!
I might do OK on turnout at 68.57%, though.
Then again I'm probably wrong.
https://twitter.com/StrongerIn/status/7453162106450165760 -
Bad enough someone here posting on PB didn't know who John Curtice was yesterday but really... this is beyond the pale.NoEasyDay said:
Who the fuck is Bobby George...or have you made that up ?Sunil_Prasannan said:
Since when does 007 answer to Brussels in any of his movies?TheScreamingEagles said:
Look away nowCasino_Royale said:
No one has a clue. Personally, I think it may swing quite a chunk on the day. Also don't know which way.another_richard said:
I wouldn't concede yet - I have a sense that the result is going to surprise, though which way I don't know.Richard_Nabavi said:I think I might as well concede now that my 37.22% Leave entry in the February PB competition is not gonna be a winner!
I might do OK on turnout at 68.57%, though.
Then again I'm probably wrong.
https://twitter.com/StrongerIn/status/7453162106450165760 -
Question on NI: what is the shinner view of Brexit? Not the Brexit of the "struggle", but the referendum one?0
-
Guess you shouldnt have suppressed it for 15 years then.TOPPING said:
We are presumably allowed to have an opinion on the various options on offer, aren't we?Omnium said:
We vote the way we wish to. Do you really believe that it's somehow indecent to vote to Leave?AlastairMeeks said:@DavidL I don't think a Leave vote would be the end of days. It would be less important for the decision itself and more important for how the decision had been made.
It would be a terrible blow to the essential decency of this nation, a blow against openness to the outside world and a blow against any rational weighing of evidence. It would mean that xenophobic playing on public fears had been successful. It would mean that the confederacy of dunces tallied over 50% of the voting public. All that would be a terrible indictment of the British people.
I would be fearful for the future of the country, given the many entirely unnecessary risks that Britain would now be running, but more than that I would feel a deep sense of shame for the bad way in which my country had made a bad decision. I expect that one way or another Britain would make the best of a bad job if it voted to Leave, but it would be a bad job.
The Leave campaign has been based on lies (£350m, Turkey, etc) and fear (Breaking Point). And has allowed people to feel that disliking long, winding queues of refugees is ok, under the guise of wanting to leave the largest trading bloc on the planet, which consumes nearly half our exports.
There is certainly a debate to be had about immigration, but the country will have thrown the baby out with the bath water by voting to leave the EU under the guise of having that debate.0 -
Explaining away defeat already...
@SuzanneEvans1: In the arena & this audience doesn't feel balanced at all. Overheard remainers bragging about coming in on #VoteLeave tickets. #EUDebate0 -
Post-1485 was a very effective austerity government.Charles said:
I'll give you Edward IV (at least in his early years), but post 1483 I really struggle.another_richard said:
Edward IV was a very progressive king IIRC and Towton in 1461 was the decisive battle.Charles said:
During the War of the Roses?!?another_richard said:
I'd say it prospered between 1460 and 1509 before being frittered away on monarchical grandstanding and religious bigotry during the following half century.Charles said:
1189 - 1558?taffys said:I note you start with "If the UK prospers". That is a big if.
Really??
I would suggest that history is overwhelmingly against you.
When, in the last 10 centuries of freedom and independence has England/Britain NOT prospered, relatively?
Don't forget the question was "relatively" not absolutely.
Richard III could well have made a good king had he been given the chance. He was an excellent administrator under his brother. Alternatively, he might have been a good number two who wasn't up to the top job: we never had the opportunity to find out.0 -
No but it is the fact the UUP has come out for Remain which avoids the Referendum being split entirely down sectarian lines and gives Remain a larger lead in NI than it would otherwise have hadSunil_Prasannan said:
I doubt every single UUP voter will be REMAIN!HYUFD said:It would be highly amusing if England and Wales voted narrowly Leave, Scotland voted Remain but not by enough to overturn the English and Welsh vote and we had to wait for NI to declare to get a result. NI declares and puts Remain ahead by 50.01% entirely due to UUP voters. So we Remain in the EU due to the Ulster Unionist Party!
0 -
PB brain trust at breaking point?Scrapheap_as_was said:
Bad enough someone here posting on PB didn't know who John Curtice was yesterday but really... this is beyond the pale.NoEasyDay said:
Who the fuck is Bobby George...or have you made that up ?Sunil_Prasannan said:
Since when does 007 answer to Brussels in any of his movies?TheScreamingEagles said:
Look away nowCasino_Royale said:
No one has a clue. Personally, I think it may swing quite a chunk on the day. Also don't know which way.another_richard said:
I wouldn't concede yet - I have a sense that the result is going to surprise, though which way I don't know.Richard_Nabavi said:I think I might as well concede now that my 37.22% Leave entry in the February PB competition is not gonna be a winner!
I might do OK on turnout at 68.57%, though.
Then again I'm probably wrong.
twitter.com/StrongerIn/status/7453162106450165760 -
Blinking hackers Charles......that looks a fookin great prediction. I forget what I put mindCharles said:
Hmmh. I was on 48.7% for Leave, on a 64% turnout.foxinsoxuk said:Many thanks to the fellow who dropped by my prize from the PB London Mayor NoJam. The combination of maps and politics in book form has been squirrelled away from my partner who would not approve. Some 5 years ago I came Joint top in the Eastleigh by election NoJam, though my GE and Sindy entrances were less good.
PBers of a delicate constitution may need to take heed; my NoJam Brexit was:
Leave on 41.57, turnout 67.34%
It is Foxys little pungent dropping rather than a product of Jacks ARSE4EU, but nevertheless...
Details of other inferior pundits here:
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/02/29/enter-the-politicalbetting-eu-referendum-competition-to-win-a-250-free-bet-at-william-hill/
I don't think I've changed my mind on that.
0 -
And who's fault do you think that it is?TOPPING said:
We are presumably allowed to have an opinion on the various options on offer, aren't we?Omnium said:
We vote the way we wish to. Do you really believe that it's somehow indecent to vote to Leave?AlastairMeeks said:@DavidL I don't think a Leave vote would be the end of days. It would be less important for the decision itself and more important for how the decision had been made.
It would be a terrible blow to the essential decency of this nation, a blow against openness to the outside world and a blow against any rational weighing of evidence. It would mean that xenophobic playing on public fears had been successful. It would mean that the confederacy of dunces tallied over 50% of the voting public. All that would be a terrible indictment of the British people.
I would be fearful for the future of the country, given the many entirely unnecessary risks that Britain would now be running, but more than that I would feel a deep sense of shame for the bad way in which my country had made a bad decision. I expect that one way or another Britain would make the best of a bad job if it voted to Leave, but it would be a bad job.
The Leave campaign has been based on lies (£350m, Turkey, etc) and fear (Breaking Point). And has allowed people to feel that disliking long, winding queues of refugees is ok, under the guise of wanting to leave the largest trading bloc on the planet, which consumes nearly half our exports.
There is certainly a debate to be had about immigration, but the country will have thrown the baby out with the bath water by voting to leave the EU under the guise of having that debate.
This debate should have happened properly a long time ago, without accusations of racism and sneering condescendence. Instead, Cameron gambled with these fears in his manifesto at the last election and is now paying for it.0 -
What about respected organisations, whose business is to make economic forecasts?Charles said:
The problem is that "experts" have been soundly abused by the Remain camp. If a scientist talks to me about his or her area of expertise I'm fascinated and keen to learn more. If they talk to me about university finance I get a little bit skeptical about vested interests. If they talk to me about politics, I'll give their views as much time as I did give to the views of, say, Posh Spice.SouthamObserver said:
Yep, that's how I see it. Experts can be safely ignored in our new post-truth world. I don't think it is a huge coincidence that every Unionist big hitter in Scotland is on the Remain side. They know what's coming when we Leave.Lowlander said:
Yes, I think you are right. A Leave vote is the ideal scenario for Scottish Independence. If the economy doesn't tank, the warnings will fail next referendum, if it does tank, there is going to be no reason not to jettison the rest of the UK. Its a proper win/win.SouthamObserver said:
Yep, that sounds about right to me. Though if things really tank post-Brexit, Scots may well conclude that they have very little left to lose anyway. If English voters can vote against their economic self-interest, why not Scots?Lowlander said:
Fear working in a second Indyref becomes very unlikely.SeanT said:
PS how do you think BREXIT would play out in Scotland?DavidL said:I have consistently said that I expected Remain to win and frankly expected them to win fairly easily given all the advantages that they had.
Now, at the end of days (according to Alastair at least) I have changed my mind. I think Leave are going to win. Just. Or Remain. Not sure. Yeah, Leave. 52:48.
Gulp.
I think Sturgeon is bluffing. She won' her next referendum, too.
But I have called Scottish politics wrong, in the recent past. And she would be under severe pressure from frothier Nats to stage another plebiscite.
That's not good for the Establishment. Hope the economy tanks or accept Scotland goes her own way. A poorer Britain or a broken Britain, if you will.
Rihanna?0 -
Casino_Royale said:
@TSE - yup, hardly a surprise. I thought that might happen earlier today.
It's clear Remain have been very busy with the celeb endorsements. I expect Attenborough as well soon.
Richard ? under the headlineCasino_Royale said:@TSE - yup, hardly a surprise. I thought that might happen earlier today.
It's clear Remain have been very busy with the celeb endorsements. I expect Attenborough as well soon.
"If its Brexit even the dead won't remain buried"0 -
That's what the Survation Northern Ireland subsample showsPaul_Bedfordshire said:
If I didnt know you better I would say you were trolling.TheScreamingEagles said:A little dickie bird tells me the Survation poll has Northern Ireland backing Leave by 4:1.
So if you lop off the Northern Ireland result, GB is backing Remain by 3%
NI 80% leave?0 -
The Queen is the ultimate endorsementCasino_Royale said:@TSE - yup, hardly a surprise. I thought that might happen earlier today.
It's clear Remain have been very busy with the celeb endorsements. I expect Attenborough as well soon.0 -
Gerry Adams believes we should REMAIN!Anorak said:Question on NI: what is the shinner view of Brexit? Not the Brexit of the "struggle", but the referendum one?
Believe in BRITAIN!
Be LEAVE!0 -
Lowlander said:
BBC has a shortened evening news for the football tonight. And its being dominated by an interview with Jo Cox widower. The first 6 minutes of a 15 minute bulletin. Then they follow it up with Dave's pleading at the lectern.
If anything, I would suggest the BBC bias this week is worse than that in the Scottish referendum.
I found that interview deeply uncomfortable. That poor fella is clearly still in shock, and who wouldn't be. What I find despicable is Jo Cox's personal and political beliefs being wrapped up in the Remain campaign, and the implication that people who do not vote the way she would have are somehow bad people, or are racists, or bigots, or are unkind, or mean minded, or are little Englanders incapable of empathy. David Cameron has shamelessly exploited the murder of an MP to further his cause, and so have Labour.
I can handle a robust debate, but I cannot accept naked emotional blackmail and the attempt to make millions of decent people feel bad because of an isolated tragedy of an MP who was well known in her support for the EU.
0 -
Down over 15% from the general election? It'll be low but not that low.Lowlander said:
EU Nationals come off, the EU vote isn't that interesting, so lots of people haven't been incentivised to go on. Its a good indicator for a sub 55% turnout in Scotland.DavidL said:
Scotland has lost 100K voters since the election? Weird. And a feather in the scales for Leave. Probably. Depending who has come off the register. Oh never mind.brokenwheel said:
Indeed,MikeL said:
Though exactly the same as GE 2015 (to nearest 0.1m).PlatoSaid said:Electoral Commission
46.4m voters on electoral register, two million more than December 2015, reports Electoral Commission
GE 2015 electorate = 46,420k
https://www.twitter.com/EuroGuido/status/745301017177243648
Am I the only one thinking the turnout is being overblown a bit? As far as I see it I'm not sure turnout is going to be much higher than the GE, if that.0 -
And Remain hasn't done any of that? Global Brexit recession, WW3, Osborne's punishment budget ring any bells?TOPPING said:
We are presumably allowed to have an opinion on the various options on offer, aren't we?Omnium said:
We vote the way we wish to. Do you really believe that it's somehow indecent to vote to Leave?AlastairMeeks said:@DavidL I don't think a Leave vote would be the end of days. It would be less important for the decision itself and more important for how the decision had been made.
It would be a terrible blow to the essential decency of this nation, a blow against openness to the outside world and a blow against any rational weighing of evidence. It would mean that xenophobic playing on public fears had been successful. It would mean that the confederacy of dunces tallied over 50% of the voting public. All that would be a terrible indictment of the British people.
I would be fearful for the future of the country, given the many entirely unnecessary risks that Britain would now be running, but more than that I would feel a deep sense of shame for the bad way in which my country had made a bad decision. I expect that one way or another Britain would make the best of a bad job if it voted to Leave, but it would be a bad job.
The Leave campaign has been based on lies (£350m, Turkey, etc) and fear (Breaking Point). And has allowed people to feel that disliking long, winding queues of refugees is ok, under the guise of wanting to leave the largest trading bloc on the planet, which consumes nearly half our exports.
There is certainly a debate to be had about immigration, but the country will have thrown the baby out with the bath water by voting to leave the EU under the guise of having that debate.0 -
In how many films is Bond *not* captured at some point?TheScreamingEagles said:
No one takes 007 hostage, well apart the North Koreans, but we're all better off pretending Die Another Day didn't happenRichard_Nabavi said:
That has a bit of a hostage-video look to it.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
So Gerry cancels out Mad Mel in each side's Rogues Gallery.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Gerry Adams believes we should REMAIN!Anorak said:Question on NI: what is the shinner view of Brexit? Not the Brexit of the "struggle", but the referendum one?
Believe in BRITAIN!
Be LEAVE!0 -
An NI subsample, really? What's that, 20 people?TheScreamingEagles said:
That's what the Survation Northern Ireland subsample showsPaul_Bedfordshire said:
If I didnt know you better I would say you were trolling.TheScreamingEagles said:A little dickie bird tells me the Survation poll has Northern Ireland backing Leave by 4:1.
So if you lop off the Northern Ireland result, GB is backing Remain by 3%
NI 80% leave?0 -
That is clearly rubbish given the Lucidtalk poll gives Remain almost 60% in Northern IrelandTheScreamingEagles said:
That's what the Survation Northern Ireland subsample showsPaul_Bedfordshire said:
If I didnt know you better I would say you were trolling.TheScreamingEagles said:A little dickie bird tells me the Survation poll has Northern Ireland backing Leave by 4:1.
So if you lop off the Northern Ireland result, GB is backing Remain by 3%
NI 80% leave?0 -
You sank my "Battleship"!TOPPING said:
What about respected organisations, whose business is to make economic forecasts?Charles said:
The problem is that "experts" have been soundly abused by the Remain camp. If a scientist talks to me about his or her area of expertise I'm fascinated and keen to learn more. If they talk to me about university finance I get a little bit skeptical about vested interests. If they talk to me about politics, I'll give their views as much time as I did give to the views of, say, Posh Spice.SouthamObserver said:
Yep, that's how I see it. Experts can be safely ignored in our new post-truth world. I don't think it is a huge coincidence that every Unionist big hitter in Scotland is on the Remain side. They know what's coming when we Leave.Lowlander said:
Yes, I think you are right. A Leave vote is the ideal scenario for Scottish Independence. If the economy doesn't tank, the warnings will fail next referendum, if it does tank, there is going to be no reason not to jettison the rest of the UK. Its a proper win/win.SouthamObserver said:
Yep, that sounds about right to me. Though if things really tank post-Brexit, Scots may well conclude that they have very little left to lose anyway. If English voters can vote against their economic self-interest, why not Scots?Lowlander said:
Fear working in a second Indyref becomes very unlikely.SeanT said:
PS how do you think BREXIT would play out in Scotland?DavidL said:I have consistently said that I expected Remain to win and frankly expected them to win fairly easily given all the advantages that they had.
Now, at the end of days (according to Alastair at least) I have changed my mind. I think Leave are going to win. Just. Or Remain. Not sure. Yeah, Leave. 52:48.
Gulp.
I think Sturgeon is bluffing. She won' her next referendum, too.
But I have called Scottish politics wrong, in the recent past. And she would be under severe pressure from frothier Nats to stage another plebiscite.
That's not good for the Establishment. Hope the economy tanks or accept Scotland goes her own way. A poorer Britain or a broken Britain, if you will.
Rihanna?0 -
Crystal Palace chairman Steve Parish has slammed the Premier League's claim that all 20 top-flight clubs want to stay in the European Union.
And the Eagles co-owner claimed celebrity endorsements from stars like David Beckham was “the politics of the playground”.
Premier League chief executive Richard Scudamore claimed yesterday that the 20 clubs backed a Yes vote at the recent AGM because leaving would be “incongruous” to its commitment to “openness”. This was then re-tweeted by David Cameron.
But Parish told BBC Radio 5 Live: “We didn't have a vote. Every single position in the Premier League requires a vote. Unlike some of the things in the EU, the Premier League is a democracy and we get to vote for things. And we didn't vote for that. This club would like to distance itself from that statement. I don't think it is for Premier League clubs to decide how people vote.
"Unless I fell asleep in a meeting which I don't think I did, we didn't have a vote on whether we endorsed a view to stay in Europe.
“And for me, I don't think it is the position of a football club to tell anyone to vote in any election. It is extraordinary that David Cameron would tweet that as a fact and use our logo as if we are endorsing one view or another. We were never asked.
"We have probably got a split inside our ownership group, we haven't debated it internally and we would certainly like our supporters to vote with their conscience and based on the facts that they know and not because the football club is encouraging them to do anything.”
Parish added: “I think people are fed up. In the last two days, David Beckham has said we should stay in – it is the politics of the playground for me.
"Let's marshal as many people that we revere and respect on each side and try and get them to force people's view. I think people are fed up with the whole campaign and for me to put all 20 Premier League clubs in favour of remain in the hope that maybe football fans will vote for Remain because they see their club's logo - is that how we want to stay in the EU or leave? - it is very disappointing for me.”
Withdrawing from the EU could pose problems for European players gaining the automatic right to play here like now.
But the Palace boss, a successful businessman who sold his international design and production agency Tag Worldwide in 2011, said: “If we were to leave, we could give anyone we want a work permit from anywhere in the world. You are not honestly saying if we left the EU, the UK government would say we couldn't have German footballers here.
I think most people think there are probably a lot more things in this debate rather than if a German footballer can come and play in England or not. I think it is far bigger and more important than that.”
http://www.mirror.co.uk/sport/football/news/crystal-palace-chairman-steve-parish-8245215?0 -
I'm presuming you mean shouldn't have.Alanbrooke said:
Guess you should have suppressed it for 15 years then.TOPPING said:
We are presumably allowed to have an opinion on the various options on offer, aren't we?Omnium said:
We vote the way we wish to. Do you really believe that it's somehow indecent to vote to Leave?AlastairMeeks said:@DavidL I don't think a Leave vote would be the end of days. It would be less important for the decision itself and more important for how the decision had been made.
It would be a terrible blow to the essential decency of this nation, a blow against openness to the outside world and a blow against any rational weighing of evidence. It would mean that xenophobic playing on public fears had been successful. It would mean that the confederacy of dunces tallied over 50% of the voting public. All that would be a terrible indictment of the British people.
I would be fearful for the future of the country, given the many entirely unnecessary risks that Britain would now be running, but more than that I would feel a deep sense of shame for the bad way in which my country had made a bad decision. I expect that one way or another Britain would make the best of a bad job if it voted to Leave, but it would be a bad job.
The Leave campaign has been based on lies (£350m, Turkey, etc) and fear (Breaking Point). And has allowed people to feel that disliking long, winding queues of refugees is ok, under the guise of wanting to leave the largest trading bloc on the planet, which consumes nearly half our exports.
There is certainly a debate to be had about immigration, but the country will have thrown the baby out with the bath water by voting to leave the EU under the guise of having that debate.
No you're right, that'll serve us right. The general hysteria which I agree prevented a sensible discussion about immigration has now resulted in us lopping off our noses to show our faces just who is boss.0 -
In how many films is Bond answerable to Brussels?david_herdson said:
In how many films is Bond *not* captured at some point?TheScreamingEagles said:
No one takes 007 hostage, well apart the North Koreans, but we're all better off pretending Die Another Day didn't happenRichard_Nabavi said:
That has a bit of a hostage-video look to it.TheScreamingEagles said: 0 -
An interesting choice of dates Mr. Charles, not that I would agree with them.Charles said:
1189 - 1558?taffys said:I note you start with "If the UK prospers". That is a big if.
Really??
I would suggest that history is overwhelmingly against you.
When, in the last 10 centuries of freedom and independence has England/Britain NOT prospered, relatively?
The fourteenth century in the run up to the Black Death saw a huge expansion of wealth and the wool trade (the foundation of England's wealth) really getting into its stride as feudalism was ditched. Post Black death the GDP per capita, as we would call it now, increased even more (OK, there were some hiccups along the way as the ruling class tried to turn the clock back).
I'd be prepared to argue that despite the Wars of the Roses the English economy was, with the usual business cycles, making the England more prosperous right up until Henry VIII. It then picked up again when Elizabeth I got control and really didn't stop for the next few hundred years. Even then it only became relatively poorer in the late 19th century as Germany and America, unburdened with the costs of Empire*, overtook us.
Now, how much of that was down to free-trade is a moot point. England possibly invented mercantilism, or perhaps it copied it from places like Venice, but it certainly made it work to its own advantage. Just as China (and Germany) is doing today.
* Sorry I know that the EIC etc is a tender point for you.0 -
When all is said and done, when people feel they have nothing to lose by voting Leave, they will. Despite things being good in this country, a lot of people don't feel optimistic about the future and their children's future. There's no optimism about the remain campaign, it's purely fear, and if you are scared already, fear doesn't work.0
-
I don't disagree and if I were to be party political about it, I would say that of the two main parties, not only were Labour more culpable, but they actually as we know enacted policies designed to exacerbate the problem.Gallowgate said:
And who's fault do you think that it is?TOPPING said:
We are presumably allowed to have an opinion on the various options on offer, aren't we?Omnium said:
We vote the way we wish to. Do you really believe that it's somehow indecent to vote to Leave?AlastairMeeks said:@DavidL I don't think a Leave vote would be the end of days. It would be less important for the decision itself and more important for how the decision had been made.
It would be a terrible blow to the essential decency of this nation, a blow against openness to the outside world and a blow against any rational weighing of evidence. It would mean that xenophobic playing on public fears had been successful. It would mean that the confederacy of dunces tallied over 50% of the voting public. All that would be a terrible indictment of the British people.
I would be fearful for the future of the country, given the many entirely unnecessary risks that Britain would now be running, but more than that I would feel a deep sense of shame for the bad way in which my country had made a bad decision. I expect that one way or another Britain would make the best of a bad job if it voted to Leave, but it would be a bad job.
The Leave campaign has been based on lies (£350m, Turkey, etc) and fear (Breaking Point). And has allowed people to feel that disliking long, winding queues of refugees is ok, under the guise of wanting to leave the largest trading bloc on the planet, which consumes nearly half our exports.
There is certainly a debate to be had about immigration, but the country will have thrown the baby out with the bath water by voting to leave the EU under the guise of having that debate.
This debate should have happened properly a long time ago, without accusations of racism and sneering condescendence. Instead, Cameron gambled with these fears in his manifesto at the last election and is now paying for it.
But we are where we are. My point is that we are now hugely over-reacting to the issue by torching our economy while the the issue of immigration, although challenging, is not wholly insoluble inside the EU.0 -
Fear worked in ScotlandGallowgate said:When all is said and done, when people feel they have nothing to lose by voting Leave, they will. Despite things being good in this country, a lot of people don't feel optimistic about the future and their children's future. There's no optimism about the remain campaign, it's purely fear, and if you are scared already, fear doesn't work.
0 -
Only for a short time, the North Koreans had him for a yeardavid_herdson said:
In how many films is Bond *not* captured at some point?TheScreamingEagles said:
No one takes 007 hostage, well apart the North Koreans, but we're all better off pretending Die Another Day didn't happenRichard_Nabavi said:
That has a bit of a hostage-video look to it.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
As reported today, she has been asking dinner guests...Paul_Bedfordshire said:
The Queen is the ultimate endorsementCasino_Royale said:@TSE - yup, hardly a surprise. I thought that might happen earlier today.
It's clear Remain have been very busy with the celeb endorsements. I expect Attenborough as well soon.
“Give me THREE good reasons,” she has, apparently, been asking her dinner companions recently, “why Britain should be part of Europe?”0 -
Michael Crick finding evidence of push polling that favours Leave.
Disgraceful0 -
Darts players only need to add up to 501.NoEasyDay said:
An intellectual then, Osborne needs someone like him, someone that can add up.Anorak said:
Darts player, gold chain wearer, and professional geezer.NoEasyDay said:
Who the fuck is Bobby George...or have you made that up ?Sunil_Prasannan said:
Since when does 007 answer to Brussels in any of his movies?TheScreamingEagles said:
Look away nowCasino_Royale said:
No one has a clue. Personally, I think it may swing quite a chunk on the day. Also don't know which way.another_richard said:
I wouldn't concede yet - I have a sense that the result is going to surprise, though which way I don't know.Richard_Nabavi said:I think I might as well concede now that my 37.22% Leave entry in the February PB competition is not gonna be a winner!
I might do OK on turnout at 68.57%, though.
Then again I'm probably wrong.
https://twitter.com/StrongerIn/status/745316210645016576
Osborne's over-borrowing has now reached £194,000,000,000.
0 -
Well if that is true then rest of england wales and NI needs just over 53% to overcome a 70% remain vote in Scotland and London.TheScreamingEagles said:
That's what the Survation Northern Ireland subsample showsPaul_Bedfordshire said:
If I didnt know you better I would say you were trolling.TheScreamingEagles said:A little dickie bird tells me the Survation poll has Northern Ireland backing Leave by 4:1.
So if you lop off the Northern Ireland result, GB is backing Remain by 3%
NI 80% leave?
53% of those that turn up that is. So based on that yougov turnout table 47-48% of england and wales and NI except london electorate
Game Over0 -
Just helps to get the remain vote outTheScreamingEagles said:Michael Crick finding evidence of push polling that favours Leave.
Disgraceful0 -
Scrapheap_as_was said:
Bad enough someone here posting on PB didn't know who John Curtice was yesterday but really... this is beyond the pale.NoEasyDay said:
Who the fuck is Bobby George...or have you made that up ?Sunil_Prasannan said:
Since when does 007 answer to Brussels in any of his movies?TheScreamingEagles said:
Look away nowCasino_Royale said:
No one has a clue. Personally, I think it may swing quite a chunk on the day. Also don't know which way.another_richard said:
I wouldn't concede yet - I have a sense that the result is going to surprise, though which way I don't know.Richard_Nabavi said:I think I might as well concede now that my 37.22% Leave entry in the February PB competition is not gonna be a winner!
I might do OK on turnout at 68.57%, though.
Then again I'm probably wrong.
https://twitter.com/StrongerIn/status/745316210645016576
Enough...enough. Bobby George....the, the.... Bobby George. Who is this poster that dares to post such insults?
Next, they'll say who is Shirley Crabtree?
0 -
Well said. If the PM had run a positive campaign and stayed away from it himself, he would in all likelihood now be looking at a repeat of the 1975 result. Instead, he's looking at a very long night on Thursday, and it's entirely of his own making.Gallowgate said:When all is said and done, when people feel they have nothing to lose by voting Leave, they will. Despite things being good in this country, a lot of people don't feel optimistic about the future and their children's future. There's no optimism about the remain campaign, it's purely fear, and if you are scared already, fear doesn't work.
0 -
Depends on your definition of "very few". If you limit it to other manufacturers of Airbus components, then Spain could do it easily (they make the horizontal tailplanes, which are basically weeny wings). If you expand the circle to include the Eurofighter manufacturers, then Germany and Italy could do it because they make the wings for that.FF43 said:...Airplane wings are a very specialist skill and there are very few other locations for that expertise than the UK...
If you expanded the circle further to include "people who build aircraft" then you're looking at USA, Sweden, Brazil, Russia, India, China...
It would be difficult to move wing manufacture outside the UK simply on grounds of cost-effectiveness, but the idea that the UK has a world monopoly on flexy thin loadbearing structures doesn't really, er, fly...
0 -
*Anecdote Alert* This anecdote is meaningless but I feel left out. I saw the first posters of the campaign today. One in the window of a house then two stakeboards on public verges. All for Leave. I imagine my Borough will have one of the highest Leave votes in the country. More seriously there have been far more Union flags and St George's Crosses here than I've ever seen for the Birthday/Football period. I suspect subconsciously this is about the Referendum.0
-
+1TOPPING said:
We are presumably allowed to have an opinion on the various options on offer, aren't we?Omnium said:
We vote the way we wish to. Do you really believe that it's somehow indecent to vote to Leave?AlastairMeeks said:@DavidL I don't think a Leave vote would be the end of days. It would be less important for the decision itself and more important for how the decision had been made.
It would be a terrible blow to the essential decency of this nation, a blow against openness to the outside world and a blow against any rational weighing of evidence. It would mean that xenophobic playing on public fears had been successful. It would mean that the confederacy of dunces tallied over 50% of the voting public. All that would be a terrible indictment of the British people.
I would be fearful for the future of the country, given the many entirely unnecessary risks that Britain would now be running, but more than that I would feel a deep sense of shame for the bad way in which my country had made a bad decision. I expect that one way or another Britain would make the best of a bad job if it voted to Leave, but it would be a bad job.
The Leave campaign has been based on lies (£350m, Turkey, etc) and fear (Breaking Point). And has allowed people to feel that disliking long, winding queues of refugees is ok, under the guise of wanting to leave the largest trading bloc on the planet, which consumes nearly half our exports.
There is certainly a debate to be had about immigration, but the country will have thrown the baby out with the bath water by voting to leave the EU under the guise of having that debate.
Why anyone would want to put the country in the hands of a movement of which Boris, IDS and Gove are the moderate sensible wing is beyond me......0 -
Misquoting Donne?TheScreamingEagles said:
Look away nowCasino_Royale said:
No one has a clue. Personally, I think it may swing quite a chunk on the day. Also don't know which way.another_richard said:
I wouldn't concede yet - I have a sense that the result is going to surprise, though which way I don't know.Richard_Nabavi said:I think I might as well concede now that my 37.22% Leave entry in the February PB competition is not gonna be a winner!
I might do OK on turnout at 68.57%, though.
Then again I'm probably wrong.
https://twitter.com/StrongerIn/status/745316210645016576
Why should I be surprised, I 'spose.0 -
And if the pound were to devalue by 10%, as has been predicted, the British-made wings and RR engines would be considerably cheaper for Airbus than they are now.viewcode said:
Depends on your definition of "very few". If you limit it to other manufacturers of Airbus components, then Spain could do it easily (they make the horizontal tailplanes, which are basically weeny wings). If you expand the circle to include the Eurofighter manufacturers, then Germany and Italy could do it because they make the wings for that.FF43 said:...Airplane wings are a very specialist skill and there are very few other locations for that expertise than the UK...
If you expanded the circle further to include "people who build aircraft" then you're looking at USA, Sweden, Brazil, Russia, India, China...
It would be difficult to move wing manufacture outside the UK simply on grounds of cost-effectiveness, but the idea that the UK has a world monopoly on flexy thin loadbearing structures doesn't really, er, fly...
Ditto all those nice cars which we export all over the world.0 -
Right; biggest question of the night. Warm summer ale or ironic chilled Sancerre to accompany the debate.
None of that lager-beer stuff is housed in this Leave household.0 -
I was in the Coventry suburbs at the weekend and saw a lot more flags than normal, as well as lots of 'leave' posters.YellowSubmarine said:*Anecdote Alert* This anecdote is meaningless but I feel left out. I saw the first posters of the campaign today. One in the window of a house then two stakeboards on public verges. All for Leave. I imagine my Borough will have one of the highest Leave votes in the country. More seriously there have been far more Union flags and St George's Crosses here than I've ever seen for the Birthday/Football period. I suspect subconsciously this is about the Referendum.
0
