Although I guess, technically, the street is government property.
Its the lectern wot dun it. Seriously, was no government resources involved in planning the use and arrangements outside number 10? Frankly I could not give a damn, but someone is having a hissy fit type of panic.
Come to think of it, the No 10 office will probably just invoice the remain campaign for any costs involved.
Only fair, therefore, that Boris gets to give a speech to camera on Downing Street.
I have faith that the electorate are swayed by the person talking, not the color of the bricks behind them, for instance.
All this bollocks about Cameron's speech by the Leave side is just playing straight into his hands. He gave a speech, It was strange but we have no idea what the reasoning behind it was. It hardly seems to have been noticed by the media so far but will probably feature in news items later today.
That is it. The content was uninspiring and the best thing Leave can do is ignore it and get on with getting their own message out.
Anecdote: My brother "thinks" he's going to vote leave. Runs his own car mechanic business from a van that is white...
You tickle me. A few months back you said people would get into the polling booth intending to vote for Leave, and then totally bottle it and vote Remain.
Remain's carrot and stick approach isn't working too well. Have they forgotten anything? Oh yes, the carrot. How about ... if we stay in, we can renegotiate a few things you're anxious about? Oops! Cameron's done that already been told to go forth and multiply.
OK, that only leaves more stick. Vote Remain, you thick bastards or you'll all die.
It takes some stupidity for a group with all the advantages to cock this one up, but Remain are doing their best. I still reckon they might just win, though.
Shadsy kinda pointed out Remain has the same implied probability now that Tory most seats did at 7am on May 7th 2015
NOM was even shorter.
Here we almost all piled on NOM at between 1/8'and 1/10 on the morning of 7th. as OGH said in the last Thread, after Nuneaton we all realised we might be wrong!
At least with a referendum binary choice, most of us should be all green as the counting starts.
My favourite bit of early hours on the 8th was the reaction of other bettors piling onto rather good odds as others slept. I'm so glad my adrenaline kept me awake for almost 48hrs.
Yes, the sudden realisation that the majority was on was a conflict between "Yay, the result I wanted!" And "Oh sh!t, I'm going to lose money!" There was 3/1 then 2/1 available on the majority long after the LD collapse became obvious. I stayed up until 10am, crashed out after Balls and Farage.
Although I remain convinced that Leave will win - in fact, I cannot envisage any other outcome - I suspect the voting markets are focusing on two things: 1. Leave was running away with this a week ago, now most polls show Remain leads, however narrow. 2. If Remain goes into the final day with poll leads or level pegging, the Quebec factor will do the rest. It is, of course, a gamble; but the Betfair odds are merely those that reflect punters' views on Remain getting 50% + 1 vote. As things stand looking at the polls and past history it is reasonable to believe that this is the most likely outcome. Even that it is by far the most likely outcome. I just happen to think that this is a vote about immigration and that most people want to see it significantly reduced. That has always guided my betting on this.
Anecdote: My brother "thinks" he's going to vote leave. Runs his own car mechanic business from a van that is white...
You tickle me. A few months back you said people would get into the polling booth intending to vote for Leave, and then totally bottle it and vote Remain.
And then *you* bottled it! :-)
I've considered all the arguments very carefully and reached my conclusion
So maybe the death of Jo Cox caused Leavers to pause, undecideds towards Remain. The polls picked that up. But then the wall-to-wall shroud-waving got to people - and a period of several days for rational thought with no campaigning perhaps returned people to where they had previously been inclining?
The Commentariat thought Jo Fox would be good for Remain. The Commentariat have been continually wrong-footed by a campaign that should have been over weeks ago, according to them.
I think today The Times only has one Jo Cox related article. They've had about 50 since her sad death. It was totally OTT. I could understand a dozen. Instead, there's enough for whole colour supplement. I honestly can't understand the rationale.
Whatever her family and husband wanted - the use of her murder for political ends has turned a lot of people off.
All this bollocks about Cameron's speech by the Leave side is just playing straight into his hands. He gave a speech, It was strange but we have no idea what the reasoning behind it was. It hardly seems to have been noticed by the media so far but will probably feature in news items later today.
That is it. The content was uninspiring and the best thing Leave can do is ignore it and get on with getting their own message out.
Indeed, I fear their response is far more indicative of how they think the campaign is going.
''The Commentariat thought Jo Fox would be good for Remain. The Commentariat have been continually wrong-footed by a campaign that should have been over weeks ago, according to them. ''
Whisper it. What if the commentariat is wrong about 'the poster' ??
I think the tragic death of Jo Cox can only have been of benefit to Remain. The question is how much. Whatever happens I do think Remain have relied to a damaging extent on 'optics'. It has been a collosally emotive campaign from them. Project Fear, Project Little England/Farage, Project Unity and Tolerance (No Leavers allowed), all massively based on engaging and influencing people's emotions not their brains. Even their much shreiked-about appeal to 'experts' isn't about providing any facts, it's about leaving all that hard thinking stuff to the clever people.
Before this campaign I thought (and said) as a marketer that this would undoubtedly work. It remains to be seen whether I was right or wrong, but unless Remain get a stonking win, I was certainly not as right as I thought. It seems people want information in this debate, not to have their heartstrings plucked.
Although I guess, technically, the street is government property.
Seeing as you can't walk up Downing Street, I think that's a bit murky...
The big gate and the policemen standing guard suggest it's very much private government property, rather than a public right of way.
Let's hope the Leave campaign proper are planning a final speech themselves, rather than moaning about process all afternoon. They've got not much more than an hour to organise something if they want to make the 18:00 news.
Does the PM have access to private polling figures? Could that be why he looked physically ill today?
The private polling is likely to show the same as the public polling, an average lead of 1% for Remain. Anyone would be nervous in that situation.
Nah, the Tory private polling at the GE showed a vastly different picture to the published polls because of the better sample, and the question order used.
The final Crosby-Textor polling had the Tories winning 329 seats.
I thought the Tories were expecting 300 or so.
I don't what they actually did, but if I were running the Tory's campaign I would be using my private polls to monitor how effectively the campaign was going and deploying resources and arguments to try and improve the Tory vote. I wouldn't waste time on trying to accurately predict the outcome, I'd be going for the best outcome I could achieve. If they did that they would be focusing on the negative results and might well have a relatively pessimistic impression of what was happening.
Although I guess, technically, the street is government property.
Its the lectern wot dun it. Seriously, was no government resources involved in planning the use and arrangements outside number 10? Frankly I could not give a damn, but someone is having a hissy fit type of panic.
Come to think of it, the No 10 office will probably just invoice the remain campaign for any costs involved.
Only fair, therefore, that Boris gets to give a speech to camera on Downing Street.
I have faith that the electorate are swayed by the person talking, not the color of the bricks behind them, for instance.
I don't think it makes much difference, but I am a firm believer in principles. What is to stop the PM to start giving speeches from Downing Street on the eve of a General Election? Are we happy with that?
''The Commentariat thought Jo Fox would be good for Remain. The Commentariat have been continually wrong-footed by a campaign that should have been over weeks ago, according to them. ''
Whisper it. What if the commentariat is wrong about 'the poster' ??
It IS wrong. If you know you're history the poster screams Hitler almost as loud as Ken Livingstone does. To the general public leaning EU sceptical they are bombarded almost daily with Daily Blackshirt front pages about hordes of migrants - this poster is no different to last week's Blackshirt front page with the "we're from Europe" people in the Lorry.
As I said a few days back morality is not an absolute - I found the poster offensive but its not up to me to impose my views on others or worse assume I am right and everyone thinks like me. As the chattering classes do.
I can't help feeling that after being compared to Neville Chamberlain on BBC1 - plus all the other brickbats from rowdy voters, his confidence has been seriously bruised. He didn't come across as his smooth urbane self on breakfast telly and this snap press conf just confirms his emotional need to get in front of the cameras to make his case. I think it's a mistake. When your boss is upset, he's not thinking rationally - nor will it make him a good advocate. Far too much raw feeling on display - and when that's fear, we can all see it.
Agreed. Not thinking clearly. 4 in 5 of voters do not agree with the statement that they trust you. A mixture of distrust and indifference. Therefore you go and make yourself the main spokesman yet again when the polling data says it should be someone that they have more trust in and someone appealing to Labour working class people.... Number 10 should have asked a number 10 cleaner to come out and make the speech - it would have been better received.
Finished my last GOTV delivery for the day. My last road of 16 houses had two displaying Vote Leave posters. My feeling is that Leave will win this something like 53/47 and that the Conservative party is in very deep trouble.
What's the sentiment amongst fellow Tories - the ones I know are seriously pissed off.
FPT re Cameronm speech: I assume it's simply news grid control. A Final Statement From the Prime Minister is going to lead the headlines, regardless of content. Insures against the Remain team screwing up in the debate.
We're a long way past that famous (and in my view rather wonderful) election eve exchange from 1945:
Excited journalist: "Mr Attlee! Have you one final message to the British people before they go to vote tomorrow?" Attlee: "No."
I love that quote!
Ha! I'd not heard that before. Brilliant. Oh for quieter times
My favourite is from Tony Benn's Diary where after a cabinet meeting, then PM Harold Wilson had left his diary out on the desk. Benn took a peek inside, curious of what the schedule would be for a PM. There only one appointment listed for the rest of the week.....one with a dentist.
Whatever her family and husband wanted - the use of her murder for political ends has turned a lot of people off.
Politics is dirty, and when a surprise happened that would benefit Remain, of course they used it. It helped Remain for about 1-2 days. Now the pendulum has swung back again.
When is Trump due to arrive on these shores? Last I heard, he was going to come before Thursday and stay till after.
Maybe Trump needs a lie down now, after a would-be assassin drove all the way across the US to shoot him but didn't know it was perfectly legal and easy to buy a gun in many states without going through a background check or even an ID check, and felt that his best chance was to try to grab a policeman's gun at the last moment.
Shadsy kinda pointed out Remain has the same implied probability now that Tory most seats did at 7am on May 7th 2015
NOM was even shorter.
Stop taking those straws from me.
TSE-I genuinely value your opinion so this is an honest question.
Are YOU starting to worry that this isn't going your way?
I am Leave and I am really worrying this is not going my way
So who is wrong or is it just first date nerves??
I'm always nervous, the published polls aren't where I expected them to be, I also did some pieces why Leave were going to win.
But why am I confident? The following reasons
1) The economic questions favour Remain, the polling is similar to what we saw at GE 2015, people won't vote for the option that they consider that makes them worse off. Look at that ComRes supplementary from last week.
2) A few months ago, I met some people from Remain and Vote Leave, they all made the same observation, if Leave spent the last 10 days of the campaign on immigration, they were on course to lose, it was a core vote strategy.
3) When the polls were swinging to Leave, someone from Leave said to me, he wouldn't believe it was genuine until David Cameron announced he was going to veto Turkish member/give the UK a referendum on it.
4) I'm out campaigning for Remain, I'm not seeing what the public polls are showing, just like it was for me in 2015.
Of course the country might vote to Leave on Thursday, and you can all laugh at me
Whatever her family and husband wanted - the use of her murder for political ends has turned a lot of people off.
Politics is dirty, and when a surprise happened that would benefit Remain, of course they used it. It helped Remain for about 1-2 days. Now the pendulum has swung back again.
When is Trump due to arrive on these shores? Last I heard, he was going to come before Thursday and stay till after.
Maybe Trump needs a lie down now, after a would-be assassin drove all the way across the US to shoot him but didn't know it was perfectly legal and easy to buy a gun in many states without going through a background check or even an ID check, and felt that his best chance was to try to grab a policeman's gun at the last moment.
Why do I get the feeling that if the guy had succeeded in topping Trump, the Left would have suddenly forgotten all about Jo Cox and thrown their hats in the air?
Finished my last GOTV delivery for the day. My last road of 16 houses had two displaying Vote Leave posters. My feeling is that Leave will win this something like 53/47 and that the Conservative party is in very deep trouble.
Any trouble they are in is entirely self made.
As I have said before they lost my vote from circa 1990 to 2010 and now managed to lose it again.
It'll be like a medieval siege. We'll cut off your food, cut off your water. And wait for you to start eating each other....
I'd realised rUK was a backward reactionary place, but I'd thought that it would have at least passing regard to international law and not immediately become a rogue state.
''The Commentariat thought Jo Fox would be good for Remain. The Commentariat have been continually wrong-footed by a campaign that should have been over weeks ago, according to them. ''
Whisper it. What if the commentariat is wrong about 'the poster' ??
It IS wrong. If you know you're history the poster screams Hitler almost as loud as Ken Livingstone does. To the general public leaning EU sceptical they are bombarded almost daily with Daily Blackshirt front pages about hordes of migrants - this poster is no different to last week's Blackshirt front page with the "we're from Europe" people in the Lorry.
As I said a few days back morality is not an absolute - I found the poster offensive but its not up to me to impose my views on others or worse assume I am right and everyone thinks like me. As the chattering classes do.
my wife who is politically uninterested and mainly ignorant of the issues, thought there was nothing wrong with the poster, she said "it makes the point don't it" and I suspect it had the same resonance where it was intended to. The Leave campaign are targeting two different demographics, the WWC concerned about immigration group and the middle class conservative / centrist group, and they have different messages for each group, i.e Boris with his amnesty, Gove shuddering at the poster etc.
All this bollocks about Cameron's speech by the Leave side is just playing straight into his hands. He gave a speech, It was strange but we have no idea what the reasoning behind it was. It hardly seems to have been noticed by the media so far but will probably feature in news items later today.
That is it. The content was uninspiring and the best thing Leave can do is ignore it and get on with getting their own message out.
A: Why on earth did Cameron give a speech? B: He gave a speech? A: Yes, just now outside No.10. It was awful. B: Oh, ok he gave a speech; I'll go and watch it, must have been important.
worked for the £350m, emergency budget, breaking point, etc, etc...
Whatever her family and husband wanted - the use of her murder for political ends has turned a lot of people off.
Politics is dirty, and when a surprise happened that would benefit Remain, of course they used it. It helped Remain for about 1-2 days. Now the pendulum has swung back again.
When is Trump due to arrive on these shores? Last I heard, he was going to come before Thursday and stay till after.
Maybe Trump needs a lie down now, after a would-be assassin drove all the way across the US to shoot him but didn't know it was perfectly legal and easy to buy a gun in many states without going through a background check or even an ID check, and felt that his best chance was to try to grab a policeman's gun at the last moment.
Why do I get the feeling that if the guy had succeeded in topping Trump, the Left would have suddenly forgotten all about Jo Cox and thrown their hats in the air?
You're probably right about that. But would the Tories have cried all those tears if rather than being a pretty young woman MP who was murdered, it was Dennis Skinner?
I'm going to Croatia next week, so I could make myself very popular by cheering on the Croat boys. Or I could be patriotic (of sorts) and support the Brits. The latter, I think, as they'll get further than us, Rooney or not.
It'll be like a medieval siege. We'll cut off your food, cut off your water. And wait for you to start eating each other....
I'd realised rUK was a backward reactionary place, but I'd thought that it would have at least passing regard to international law and not immediately become a rogue state.
FPT re Cameronm speech: I assume it's simply news grid control. A Final Statement From the Prime Minister is going to lead the headlines, regardless of content. Insures against the Remain team screwing up in the debate.
We're a long way past that famous (and in my view rather wonderful) election eve exchange from 1945:
Excited journalist: "Mr Attlee! Have you one final message to the British people before they go to vote tomorrow?" Attlee: "No."
It'll be like a medieval siege. We'll cut off your food, cut off your water. And wait for you to start eating each other....
I'd realised rUK was a backward reactionary place, but I'd thought that it would have at least passing regard to international law and not immediately become a rogue state.
Whatever her family and husband wanted - the use of her murder for political ends has turned a lot of people off.
Politics is dirty, and when a surprise happened that would benefit Remain, of course they used it. It helped Remain for about 1-2 days. Now the pendulum has swung back again.
When is Trump due to arrive on these shores? Last I heard, he was going to come before Thursday and stay till after.
Maybe Trump needs a lie down now, after a would-be assassin drove all the way across the US to shoot him but didn't know it was perfectly legal and easy to buy a gun in many states without going through a background check or even an ID check, and felt that his best chance was to try to grab a policeman's gun at the last moment.
That has to be the most hamfisted attempt at an assassination ever.
In my early working days, I acted as Appropriate Adult to a 16 year old who robbed a house, and loaded the booty into a rucksack he took from the house, including a bottle of whisky. Anyway, he decided to sit outside for a bit, and have a neck of whisky. The owners arrived to find him lying outside on the verge, flat out sozzled, the rucksack filled with the stolen items next to him. They called the police who promptly arrested him. You know what....he still denied having anything to do with the burglary.
It'll be like a medieval siege. We'll cut off your food, cut off your water. And wait for you to start eating each other....
I'd realised rUK was a backward reactionary place, but I'd thought that it would have at least passing regard to international law and not immediately become a rogue state.
The Supreme Court, High court, Old Bailey and Court of appeal are all based in London. Will rUK recognise their authority ?
I can't help feeling that after being compared to Neville Chamberlain on BBC1 - plus all the other brickbats from rowdy voters, his confidence has been seriously bruised. He didn't come across as his smooth urbane self on breakfast telly and this snap press conf just confirms his emotional need to get in front of the cameras to make his case. I think it's a mistake. When your boss is upset, he's not thinking rationally - nor will it make him a good advocate. Far too much raw feeling on display - and when that's fear, we can all see it.
Agreed. Not thinking clearly. 4 in 5 of voters do not agree with the statement that they trust you. A mixture of distrust and indifference. Therefore you go and make yourself the main spokesman yet again when the polling data says it should be someone that they have more trust in and someone appealing to Labour working class people.... Number 10 should have asked a number 10 cleaner to come out and make the speech - it would have been better received.
It's such a core personal thing - if you feel attacked, hurt, called a liar - it's natural to want to *set the record straight*. It's almost always a mistake to do it whilst you feel hot with emotion.
I'd be amazed if Number 10 spinners recommended this - I've had too many bosses who reacted just like Cameron and wouldn't listen to advice/felt an overwhelming need to react.
It'll be like a medieval siege. We'll cut off your food, cut off your water. And wait for you to start eating each other....
I'd realised rUK was a backward reactionary place, but I'd thought that it would have at least passing regard to international law and not immediately become a rogue state.
It'll be like a medieval siege. We'll cut off your food, cut off your water. And wait for you to start eating each other....
I'd realised rUK was a backward reactionary place, but I'd thought that it would have at least passing regard to international law and not immediately become a rogue state.
You break it, you pay for it....
You'd think that London was the first independent country ever to sit downstream of another country.
It's disappointing to think that rUK might conceive of modelling itself on Stalin's USSR, but I suppose that adoration of Vladimir Putin has to express itself somehow.
It'll be like a medieval siege. We'll cut off your food, cut off your water. And wait for you to start eating each other....
I'd realised rUK was a backward reactionary place, but I'd thought that it would have at least passing regard to international law and not immediately become a rogue state.
The Supreme Court, High court, Old Bailey and Court of appeal are all based in London. Will rUK recognise their authority ?
Shadsy kinda pointed out Remain has the same implied probability now that Tory most seats did at 7am on May 7th 2015
NOM was even shorter.
Stop taking those straws from me.
TSE-I genuinely value your opinion so this is an honest question.
Are YOU starting to worry that this isn't going your way?
I am Leave and I am really worrying this is not going my way
So who is wrong or is it just first date nerves??
I'm always nervous, the published polls aren't where I expected them to be, I also did some pieces why Leave were going to win.
But why am I confident? The following reasons
1) The economic questions favour Remain, the polling is similar to what we saw at GE 2015, people won't vote for the option that they consider that makes them worse off. Look at that ComRes supplementary from last week.
2) A few months ago, I met some people from Remain and Vote Leave, they all made the same observation, if Leave spent the last 10 days of the campaign on immigration, they were on course to lose, it was a core vote strategy.
3) When the polls were swinging to Leave, someone from Leave said to me, he wouldn't believe it was genuine until David Cameron announced he was going to veto Turkish member/give the UK a referendum on it.
4) I'm out campaigning for Remain, I'm not seeing what the public polls are showing, just like it was for me in 2015.
Of course the country might vote to Leave on Thursday, and you can all laugh at me
The big difference with 2015 though is that Leadership ratings don't favour David Cameron. Cameron may well still pull it off, but I think it will be a very narrow win.
It'll be like a medieval siege. We'll cut off your food, cut off your water. And wait for you to start eating each other....
I'd realised rUK was a backward reactionary place, but I'd thought that it would have at least passing regard to international law and not immediately become a rogue state.
You break it, you pay for it....
You'd think that London was the first independent country ever to sit downstream of another country.
It's disappointing to think that rUK might conceive of modelling itself on Stalin's USSR, but I suppose that adoration of Vladimir Putin has to express itself somehow.
I think what's being proposed down thread is more a mixture of dungeons and dragons and the Wars of the Roses. A full on return to the15th century. Still there are those who have said.........
Whatever her family and husband wanted - the use of her murder for political ends has turned a lot of people off.
Politics is dirty, and when a surprise happened that would benefit Remain, of course they used it. It helped Remain for about 1-2 days. Now the pendulum has swung back again.
When is Trump due to arrive on these shores? Last I heard, he was going to come before Thursday and stay till after.
Maybe Trump needs a lie down now, after a would-be assassin drove all the way across the US to shoot him but didn't know it was perfectly legal and easy to buy a gun in many states without going through a background check or even an ID check, and felt that his best chance was to try to grab a policeman's gun at the last moment.
That has to be the most hamfisted attempt at an assassination ever.
In my early working days, I acted as Appropriate Adult to a 16 year old who robbed a house, and loaded the booty into a rucksack he took from the house, including a bottle of whisky. Anyway, he decided to sit outside for a bit, and have a neck of whisky. The owners arrived to find him lying outside on the verge, flat out sozzled, the rucksack filled with the stolen items next to him. They called the police who promptly arrested him. You know what....he still denied having anything to do with the burglary.
I shared a house in south London many years ago. In the dead of night, we were woken by the local cops, asking if we recognised this TV. Yes, it was ours, as a gap in the front room attested. A patrol car had come round a corner to find two youth carrying it across the road, one at each end. Our neighbours from across the road. Banged to rights.
Except....
They both got charged with burglary. Not conspiracy, not receiving stolen goods. Just burglary. That requires proof that the person was in the property. Each said they had not been in the house, the other had been in the house and taken it, whilst they were just in the road, waiting.
Finished my last GOTV delivery for the day. My last road of 16 houses had two displaying Vote Leave posters. My feeling is that Leave will win this something like 53/47 and that the Conservative party is in very deep trouble.
What's the sentiment amongst fellow Tories - the ones I know are seriously pissed off.
Some dialogue has just shut down to avoid causing upset through expressing an opinion. One Branch Chairman went through UKIP to get leaflets etc. The party has basically gone on holiday with only the known LEAVErs active on the ground in this area. A lot of camaraderie being built between UKIPpers and Cons4LEAVE. Having Farage as Leader will prevent defections.
Shadsy kinda pointed out Remain has the same implied probability now that Tory most seats did at 7am on May 7th 2015
NOM was even shorter.
Stop taking those straws from me.
TSE-I genuinely value your opinion so this is an honest question.
Are YOU starting to worry that this isn't going your way?
I am Leave and I am really worrying this is not going my way
So who is wrong or is it just first date nerves??
I'm always nervous, the published polls aren't where I expected them to be, I also did some pieces why Leave were going to win.
But why am I confident? The following reasons
1) The economic questions favour Remain, the polling is similar to what we saw at GE 2015, people won't vote for the option that they consider that makes them worse off. Look at that ComRes supplementary from last week.
2) A few months ago, I met some people from Remain and Vote Leave, they all made the same observation, if Leave spent the last 10 days of the campaign on immigration, they were on course to lose, it was a core vote strategy.
3) When the polls were swinging to Leave, someone from Leave said to me, he wouldn't believe it was genuine until David Cameron announced he was going to veto Turkish member/give the UK a referendum on it.
4) I'm out campaigning for Remain, I'm not seeing what the public polls are showing, just like it was for me in 2015.
Of course the country might vote to Leave on Thursday, and you can all laugh at me
Jo Cox's death has been a massive benefit to Remain.
In terms of tweets, posts and virtue signalling.
As Ed Miliband will testify - it's votes that count.
There is going to be a big rally in London tomorrow as well. Bad Al is involved, so I am sure he won't have anything to say at all on the matter.
Remain are in danger of overpaying their hand here. Bad Al on TV tomorrow could be what tips it for Leave. Making it both a Rally for Jo and a Rally for Remain is really not a good idea.
My currency trader has just sent out a circular to say the markets are going to go bonkers on Friday- expect a 10-15% fall on Brexit, but remain impact is unknown. Doesn't know if it's price in already or what.
Jo Cox's death has been a massive benefit to Remain.
In terms of tweets, posts and virtue signalling.
As Ed Miliband will testify - it's votes that count.
There is going to be a big rally in London tomorrow as well. Bad Al is involved, so I am sure he won't have anything to say at all on the matter.
Remain are in danger of overpaying their hand here. Bad Al on TV tomorrow could be what tips it for Leave. Making it both a Rally for Jo and a Rally for Remain is really not a good idea.
I am sure Bad Al is smart enough to stay off tv and let others speak....or perhaps his ego will take over.
What are the odds on the referendum being re-run? If the result is close (less than a six-figure margin) many on the losing side won't accept it, and quite a few on the winning side will be uncomfortable with such a big decision being made on a 50-50 vote. If the result is very close indeed, it'll be difficult for the country to "move on".
@faisalislam: So the new Leave campaign economic guru cited by Gove, a Leave EU donor announced he was shorting pound this morn: https://t.co/8CiC5xWGvd
My currency trader has just sent out a circular to say the markets are going to go bonkers on Friday- expect a 10-15% fall on Brexit, but remain impact is unknown. Doesn't know if it's price in already or what.
I bought a new camera today.
I'd advise anyone wanting to buy an import to do so now.
Although I'll be heartily glad to see the end of this campaign - in a weird way, I'm going to miss the epic WTF moments that we've seen almost every other day for three months.
The consolation is that whatever the result - from Friday, it's going to be another bloodbath - just with a different set of criteria
Shadsy kinda pointed out Remain has the same implied probability now that Tory most seats did at 7am on May 7th 2015
NOM was even shorter.
Stop taking those straws from me.
TSE-I genuinely value your opinion so this is an honest question.
Are YOU starting to worry that this isn't going your way?
I am Leave and I am really worrying this is not going my way
So who is wrong or is it just first date nerves??
I'm always nervous, the published polls aren't where I expected them to be, I also did some pieces why Leave were going to win.
But why am I confident? The following reasons
1) The economic questions favour Remain, the polling is similar to what we saw at GE 2015, people won't vote for the option that they consider that makes them worse off. Look at that ComRes supplementary from last week.
2) A few months ago, I met some people from Remain and Vote Leave, they all made the same observation, if Leave spent the last 10 days of the campaign on immigration, they were on course to lose, it was a core vote strategy.
3) When the polls were swinging to Leave, someone from Leave said to me, he wouldn't believe it was genuine until David Cameron announced he was going to veto Turkish member/give the UK a referendum on it.
4) I'm out campaigning for Remain, I'm not seeing what the public polls are showing, just like it was for me in 2015.
Of course the country might vote to Leave on Thursday, and you can all laugh at me
The big difference with 2015 though is that Leadership ratings don't favour David Cameron. Cameron may well still pull it off, but I think it will be a very narrow win.
the big debate tonight will be crucial for both teams, could go either way
This blockade of London sounds a good idea. Let's starve them of sustenance and wait for the Cockney Apocalypse. It wouldn't work though, Juncker would be ordering airdrops of rations from Brussels.
I was hoping to have an early night on Thursday, but if it's close, I'll have to stay up. The alternative is to rise early and watch BBC. They try to be impartial, but if they look miserable, I'll know we're leaving.
Jo Cox's death has been a massive benefit to Remain.
In terms of tweets, posts and virtue signalling.
As Ed Miliband will testify - it's votes that count.
There is going to be a big rally in London tomorrow as well. Bad Al is involved, so I am sure he won't have anything to say at all on the matter.
Remain are in danger of overpaying their hand here. Bad Al on TV tomorrow could be what tips it for Leave. Making it both a Rally for Jo and a Rally for Remain is really not a good idea.
I am sure Bad Al is smart enough to stay off tv and let others speak....or perhaps his ego will take over.
He's been all over Twitter and the TV at times. I can't see him resisting.
Shadsy kinda pointed out Remain has the same implied probability now that Tory most seats did at 7am on May 7th 2015
NOM was even shorter.
Stop taking those straws from me.
TSE-I genuinely value your opinion so this is an honest question.
Are YOU starting to worry that this isn't going your way?
I am Leave and I am really worrying this is not going my way
So who is wrong or is it just first date nerves??
I'm always nervous, the published polls aren't where I expected them to be, I also did some pieces why Leave were going to win.
But why am I confident? The following reasons
1) The economic questions favour Remain, the polling is similar to what we saw at GE 2015, people won't vote for the option that they consider that makes them worse off. Look at that ComRes supplementary from last week.
2) A few months ago, I met some people from Remain and Vote Leave, they all made the same observation, if Leave spent the last 10 days of the campaign on immigration, they were on course to lose, it was a core vote strategy.
3) When the polls were swinging to Leave, someone from Leave said to me, he wouldn't believe it was genuine until David Cameron announced he was going to veto Turkish member/give the UK a referendum on it.
4) I'm out campaigning for Remain, I'm not seeing what the public polls are showing, just like it was for me in 2015.
Of course the country might vote to Leave on Thursday, and you can all laugh at me
One reason I see to be optimistic for Remain is that there was probably a small Remain majority before the campaign started, and campaigns generally don't change that much. A narrow Remain win would be very unsurprising.
My currency trader has just sent out a circular to say the markets are going to go bonkers on Friday- expect a 10-15% fall on Brexit, but remain impact is unknown. Doesn't know if it's price in already or what.
Fall of what? Sterling? UK equities? Bolivian cocaine futures? Professional investors have priced in up to minus 30 for Sterling, 10% on the Footsie. So what?
I am thinking that Leave will win. As Montie said on DP today, you can fuss and bother all you like about this economic forecast or that institution's warning, but it is not real (oh it is likely to be, but not for the electorate, today).
We all know the electorate feels impotent, disenfranchised and wants to hit back at the establishment.
The only thing that they can vote for which they believe will be unambiguous and not subject to a 10 year gravity model of international trade, is to stop immigration. It is the only thing that both campaigns, Remain grudgingly, agree on.
And they won't be voting Leave because they are racist or xenophobic (most of them). They will be voting to take control. VLTC's constant use of the free movement take control mantra will be successful. It is irrelevant that they will find out subsequently that it will mean no such thing; even Gove acknowledged it will be 2020 before anything like a start can be made on anti-immigration measures, and of course they have failed miserably to date (for non-EU immigration). To say nothing of a Labour government (which will come at some point, and) which will open the doors wide to all kinds of immigrants.
I called Remain long ago at something like 60:40. But now I am sure that Leave will win.
And of course for the UK, for our economy, and for 98% of people who will have voted to leave the EU, it will be a tragedy.
Shadsy kinda pointed out Remain has the same implied probability now that Tory most seats did at 7am on May 7th 2015
NOM was even shorter.
Stop taking those straws from me.
TSE-I genuinely value your opinion so this is an honest question.
Are YOU starting to worry that this isn't going your way?
I am Leave and I am really worrying this is not going my way
So who is wrong or is it just first date nerves??
I'm always nervous, the published polls aren't where I expected them to be, I also did some pieces why Leave were going to win.
But why am I confident? The following reasons
1) The economic questions favour Remain, the polling is similar to what we saw at GE 2015, people won't vote for the option that they consider that makes them worse off. Look at that ComRes supplementary from last week.
2) A few months ago, I met some people from Remain and Vote Leave, they all made the same observation, if Leave spent the last 10 days of the campaign on immigration, they were on course to lose, it was a core vote strategy.
3) When the polls were swinging to Leave, someone from Leave said to me, he wouldn't believe it was genuine until David Cameron announced he was going to veto Turkish member/give the UK a referendum on it.
4) I'm out campaigning for Remain, I'm not seeing what the public polls are showing, just like it was for me in 2015.
Of course the country might vote to Leave on Thursday, and you can all laugh at me
The big difference with 2015 though is that Leadership ratings don't favour David Cameron. Cameron may well still pull it off, but I think it will be a very narrow win.
the big debate tonight will be crucial for both teams, could go either way
"The event, which is the BBC's last live TV debate before the vote on Thursday, will be hosted by David Dimbleby.
The Leave campaign has put forward the same line-up as a previous TV debate: Boris Johnson, Labour MP Gisela Stuart and the energy minister Andrea Leadsom.
The argument for remaining in the EU will be put by Mr Khan, Scottish Conservative leader Ruth Davidson, and Frances O'Grady, general secretary of the Trades Union Congress.
The BBC also expects 200 reporters and spokespeople in the so-called "spin room". "
'jamesrbuk: Scoop from @jimwaterson: One of Vote Leave's biggest donors – who's given £600,000 in total – is a former BNP member https://t.co/EpCOWJ5UM9'
Wow, what a scoop worth at least another 5% to Remain.
Jo Cox's death has been a massive benefit to Remain.
In terms of tweets, posts and virtue signalling.
As Ed Miliband will testify - it's votes that count.
People signal the virtues they would like others to think they have in many ways. Someone making a point of saying they don't understand people being upset by the murder or that they cannot be upset by the death of a stranger or whatever is just as much virtue signalling as someone wailing over the death of a person they have never met or sending out a sympathetic tweet. It's just a different kind of virtue that they are seeking to signal.
My currency trader has just sent out a circular to say the markets are going to go bonkers on Friday- expect a 10-15% fall on Brexit, but remain impact is unknown. Doesn't know if it's price in already or what.
My London-based forex trader has just said they'll be up all night working on Thursday. Obviously expecting a very busy couple of days whatever the result. They suggest the pound could go down to $1.15 if the vote is to Leave.
Comments
That is it. The content was uninspiring and the best thing Leave can do is ignore it and get on with getting their own message out.
And then *you* bottled it! :-)
OK, that only leaves more stick. Vote Remain, you thick bastards or you'll all die.
It takes some stupidity for a group with all the advantages to cock this one up, but Remain are doing their best. I still reckon they might just win, though.
1. Leave was running away with this a week ago, now most polls show Remain leads, however narrow.
2. If Remain goes into the final day with poll leads or level pegging, the Quebec factor will do the rest.
It is, of course, a gamble; but the Betfair odds are merely those that reflect punters' views on Remain getting 50% + 1 vote. As things stand looking at the polls and past history it is reasonable to believe that this is the most likely outcome. Even that it is by far the most likely outcome.
I just happen to think that this is a vote about immigration and that most people want to see it significantly reduced. That has always guided my betting on this.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36526298
I half expect Sky news to come out for remain.
Whatever her family and husband wanted - the use of her murder for political ends has turned a lot of people off.
Are YOU starting to worry that this isn't going your way?
I am Leave and I am really worrying this is not going my way
So who is wrong or is it just first date nerves??
Before this campaign I thought (and said) as a marketer that this would undoubtedly work. It remains to be seen whether I was right or wrong, but unless Remain get a stonking win, I was certainly not as right as I thought. It seems people want information in this debate, not to have their heartstrings plucked.
Let's hope the Leave campaign proper are planning a final speech themselves, rather than moaning about process all afternoon. They've got not much more than an hour to organise something if they want to make the 18:00 news.
As I said a few days back morality is not an absolute - I found the poster offensive but its not up to me to impose my views on others or worse assume I am right and everyone thinks like me. As the chattering classes do.
When is Trump due to arrive on these shores? Last I heard, he was going to come before Thursday and stay till after.
Maybe Trump needs a lie down now, after a would-be assassin drove all the way across the US to shoot him but didn't know it was perfectly legal and easy to buy a gun in many states without going through a background check or even an ID check, and felt that his best chance was to try to grab a policeman's gun at the last moment.
ENG: (game Monday)
Hungary 51%
Iceland 23%
Austria 15%
Portugal 11%
WAL: (game Saturday)
Albania 50%
Czechs 20%
Turkey 13%
Northern Ireland 9%
Croatia 7%
Germany 1%
NIR: (game Sun, or Sat vs Swiss)
France 65%
Don't qualify 18%
Wales 9%
Slovakia 4%
Switzerland 4%
But why am I confident? The following reasons
1) The economic questions favour Remain, the polling is similar to what we saw at GE 2015, people won't vote for the option that they consider that makes them worse off. Look at that ComRes supplementary from last week.
2) A few months ago, I met some people from Remain and Vote Leave, they all made the same observation, if Leave spent the last 10 days of the campaign on immigration, they were on course to lose, it was a core vote strategy.
3) When the polls were swinging to Leave, someone from Leave said to me, he wouldn't believe it was genuine until David Cameron announced he was going to veto Turkish member/give the UK a referendum on it.
4) I'm out campaigning for Remain, I'm not seeing what the public polls are showing, just like it was for me in 2015.
Of course the country might vote to Leave on Thursday, and you can all laugh at me
Oops!!
As I have said before they lost my vote from circa 1990 to 2010 and now managed to lose it again.
THAT budget really was the last straw.
B: He gave a speech?
A: Yes, just now outside No.10. It was awful.
B: Oh, ok he gave a speech; I'll go and watch it, must have been important.
worked for the £350m, emergency budget, breaking point, etc, etc...
In terms of tweets, posts and virtue signalling.
As Ed Miliband will testify - it's votes that count.
"than will it be the Czechs or the Croats?"
I'm going to Croatia next week, so I could make myself very popular by cheering on the Croat boys. Or I could be patriotic (of sorts) and support the Brits. The latter, I think, as they'll get further than us, Rooney or not.
Don't get overexcited by it
Attlee: [thinks about it] "...No."
In my early working days, I acted as Appropriate Adult to a 16 year old who robbed a house, and loaded the booty into a rucksack he took from the house, including a bottle of whisky. Anyway, he decided to sit outside for a bit, and have a neck of whisky. The owners arrived to find him lying outside on the verge, flat out sozzled, the rucksack filled with the stolen items next to him. They called the police who promptly arrested him.
You know what....he still denied having anything to do with the burglary.
I'd be amazed if Number 10 spinners recommended this - I've had too many bosses who reacted just like Cameron and wouldn't listen to advice/felt an overwhelming need to react.
It's disappointing to think that rUK might conceive of modelling itself on Stalin's USSR, but I suppose that adoration of Vladimir Putin has to express itself somehow.
Good punctuation shows the difference between an organisation that knows its shit and an organisation that knows it's shit!
https://www.donaldjtrump.com/schedule
Maybe getting on Trump Force One straight after?
Except....
They both got charged with burglary. Not conspiracy, not receiving stolen goods. Just burglary. That requires proof that the person was in the property. Each said they had not been in the house, the other had been in the house and taken it, whilst they were just in the road, waiting.
Result? They both got off...
I mean suspend
Bloody experts, eh?
I'd advise anyone wanting to buy an import to do so now.
The consolation is that whatever the result - from Friday, it's going to be another bloodbath - just with a different set of criteria
I was hoping to have an early night on Thursday, but if it's close, I'll have to stay up. The alternative is to rise early and watch BBC. They try to be impartial, but if they look miserable, I'll know we're leaving.
https://twitter.com/angus_young61/status/745238476690456576
We all know the electorate feels impotent, disenfranchised and wants to hit back at the establishment.
The only thing that they can vote for which they believe will be unambiguous and not subject to a 10 year gravity model of international trade, is to stop immigration. It is the only thing that both campaigns, Remain grudgingly, agree on.
And they won't be voting Leave because they are racist or xenophobic (most of them). They will be voting to take control. VLTC's constant use of the free movement take control mantra will be successful. It is irrelevant that they will find out subsequently that it will mean no such thing; even Gove acknowledged it will be 2020 before anything like a start can be made on anti-immigration measures, and of course they have failed miserably to date (for non-EU immigration). To say nothing of a Labour government (which will come at some point, and) which will open the doors wide to all kinds of immigrants.
I called Remain long ago at something like 60:40. But now I am sure that Leave will win.
And of course for the UK, for our economy, and for 98% of people who will have voted to leave the EU, it will be a tragedy.
That is why the oldies are for Brexit. They want to take us back to the nostalgia of the 70's and re-runs of Love Thy Neighbour.
Offshore of a crumbling European Union, we will be a safe haven currency.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36582567
"The event, which is the BBC's last live TV debate before the vote on Thursday, will be hosted by David Dimbleby.
The Leave campaign has put forward the same line-up as a previous TV debate: Boris Johnson, Labour MP Gisela Stuart and the energy minister Andrea Leadsom.
The argument for remaining in the EU will be put by Mr Khan, Scottish Conservative leader Ruth Davidson, and Frances O'Grady, general secretary of the Trades Union Congress.
The BBC also expects 200 reporters and spokespeople in the so-called "spin room". "
'jamesrbuk: Scoop from @jimwaterson: One of Vote Leave's biggest donors – who's given £600,000 in total – is a former BNP member https://t.co/EpCOWJ5UM9'
Wow, what a scoop worth at least another 5% to Remain.