My currency trader has just sent out a circular to say the markets are going to go bonkers on Friday- expect a 10-15% fall on Brexit, but remain impact is unknown. Doesn't know if it's price in already or what.
Fall of what? Sterling? UK equities? Bolivian cocaine futures? Professional investors have priced in up to minus 30 for Sterling, 10% on the Footsie. So what?
Jo Cox's death has been a massive benefit to Remain.
In terms of tweets, posts and virtue signalling.
As Ed Miliband will testify - it's votes that count.
People signal the virtues they would like others to think they have in many ways. Someone making a point of saying they don't understand people being upset by the murder or that they cannot be upset by the death of a stranger or whatever is just as much virtue signalling as someone wailing over the death of a person they have never met or sending out a sympathetic tweet. It's just a different kind of virtue that they are seeking to signal.
But in the last GE - the anti-Milibandites may or may not have signalled their virtues - but they voted too.
'My currency trader has just sent out a circular to say the markets are going to go bonkers on Friday- expect a 10-15% fall on Brexit, but remain impact is unknown. Doesn't know if it's price in already or what.'
He doesn't seem to know much,thought about getting a decent trader ?
Shadsy kinda pointed out Remain has the same implied probability now that Tory most seats did at 7am on May 7th 2015
NOM was even shorter.
Stop taking those straws from me.
TSE-I genuinely value your opinion so this is an honest question.
Are YOU starting to worry that this isn't going your way?
I am Leave and I am really worrying this is not going my way
So who is wrong or is it just first date nerves??
I'm always nervous, the published polls aren't where I expected them to be, I also did some pieces why Leave were going to win.
But why am I confident? The following reasons
1) The economic questions favour Remain, the polling is similar to what we saw at GE 2015, people won't vote for the option that they consider that makes them worse off. Look at that ComRes supplementary from last week.
2) A few months ago, I met some people from Remain and Vote Leave, they all made the same observation, if Leave spent the last 10 days of the campaign on immigration, they were on course to lose, it was a core vote strategy.
3) When the polls were swinging to Leave, someone from Leave said to me, he wouldn't believe it was genuine until David Cameron announced he was going to veto Turkish member/give the UK a referendum on it.
4) I'm out campaigning for Remain, I'm not seeing what the public polls are showing, just like it was for me in 2015.
Of course the country might vote to Leave on Thursday, and you can all laugh at me
Shadsy kinda pointed out Remain has the same implied probability now that Tory most seats did at 7am on May 7th 2015
NOM was even shorter.
Stop taking those straws from me.
TSE-I genuinely value your opinion so this is an honest question.
Are YOU starting to worry that this isn't going your way?
I am Leave and I am really worrying this is not going my way
So who is wrong or is it just first date nerves??
I'm always nervous, the published polls aren't where I expected them to be, I also did some pieces why Leave were going to win.
But why am I confident? The following reasons
1) The economic questions favour Remain, the polling is similar to what we saw at GE 2015, people won't vote for the option that they consider that makes them worse off. Look at that ComRes supplementary from last week.
2) A few months ago, I met some people from Remain and Vote Leave, they all made the same observation, if Leave spent the last 10 days of the campaign on immigration, they were on course to lose, it was a core vote strategy.
3) When the polls were swinging to Leave, someone from Leave said to me, he wouldn't believe it was genuine until David Cameron announced he was going to veto Turkish member/give the UK a referendum on it.
4) I'm out campaigning for Remain, I'm not seeing what the public polls are showing, just like it was for me in 2015.
Of course the country might vote to Leave on Thursday, and you can all laugh at me
The big difference with 2015 though is that Leadership ratings don't favour David Cameron. Cameron may well still pull it off, but I think it will be a very narrow win.
the big debate tonight will be crucial for both teams, could go either way
"The event, which is the BBC's last live TV debate before the vote on Thursday, will be hosted by David Dimbleby.
The Leave campaign has put forward the same line-up as a previous TV debate: Boris Johnson, Labour MP Gisela Stuart and the energy minister Andrea Leadsom.
The argument for remaining in the EU will be put by Mr Khan, Scottish Conservative leader Ruth Davidson, and Frances O'Grady, general secretary of the Trades Union Congress.
The BBC also expects 200 reporters and spokespeople in the so-called "spin room". "
I read that as Imran Khan, Peter Davidson and Paul O'Grady.
Shadsy kinda pointed out Remain has the same implied probability now that Tory most seats did at 7am on May 7th 2015
NOM was even shorter.
Stop taking those straws from me.
TSE-I genuinely value your opinion so this is an honest question.
Are YOU starting to worry that this isn't going your way?
I am Leave and I am really worrying this is not going my way
So who is wrong or is it just first date nerves??
I'm always nervous, the published polls aren't where I expected them to be, I also did some pieces why Leave were going to win.
But why am I confident? The following reasons
1) The economic questions favour Remain, the polling is similar to what we saw at GE 2015, people won't vote for the option that they consider that makes them worse off. Look at that ComRes supplementary from last week.
2) A few months ago, I met some people from Remain and Vote Leave, they all made the same observation, if Leave spent the last 10 days of the campaign on immigration, they were on course to lose, it was a core vote strategy.
3) When the polls were swinging to Leave, someone from Leave said to me, he wouldn't believe it was genuine until David Cameron announced he was going to veto Turkish member/give the UK a referendum on it.
4) I'm out campaigning for Remain, I'm not seeing what the public polls are showing, just like it was for me in 2015.
Of course the country might vote to Leave on Thursday, and you can all laugh at me
The big difference with 2015 though is that Leadership ratings don't favour David Cameron. Cameron may well still pull it off, but I think it will be a very narrow win.
the big debate tonight will be crucial for both teams, could go either way
"The event, which is the BBC's last live TV debate before the vote on Thursday, will be hosted by David Dimbleby.
The Leave campaign has put forward the same line-up as a previous TV debate: Boris Johnson, Labour MP Gisela Stuart and the energy minister Andrea Leadsom.
The argument for remaining in the EU will be put by Mr Khan, Scottish Conservative leader Ruth Davidson, and Frances O'Grady, general secretary of the Trades Union Congress.
The BBC also expects 200 reporters and spokespeople in the so-called "spin room". "
Will those in the Spin Room be watching the footy on the other side?
I can't help feeling that after being compared to Neville Chamberlain on BBC1 - plus all the other brickbats from rowdy voters, his confidence has been seriously bruised. He didn't come across as his smooth urbane self on breakfast telly and this snap press conf just confirms his emotional need to get in front of the cameras to make his case. I think it's a mistake. When your boss is upset, he's not thinking rationally - nor will it make him a good advocate. Far too much raw feeling on display - and when that's fear, we can all see it.
Agreed. Not thinking clearly. 4 in 5 of voters do not agree with the statement that they trust you. A mixture of distrust and indifference. Therefore you go and make yourself the main spokesman yet again when the polling data says it should be someone that they have more trust in and someone appealing to Labour working class people.... Number 10 should have asked a number 10 cleaner to come out and make the speech - it would have been better received.
It's such a core personal thing - if you feel attacked, hurt, called a liar - it's natural to want to *set the record straight*. It's almost always a mistake to do it whilst you feel hot with emotion. I'd be amazed if Number 10 spinners recommended this - I've had too many bosses who reacted just like Cameron and wouldn't listen to advice/felt an overwhelming need to react.
You are probably right. He lost his temper and his staff are not able to persuade him otherwise.
"It attests to the worry in Downing Street and the Remain camp generally that, despite a series of slightly more favourable polls this week, things in the country are not going well. Although the message that Downing Street were looking at polls putting them ahead by ten points was well-briefed at the weekend, the message from out in the country – with the exception of England’s big cities and Scotland – is almost uniformly bleak for Remain.
Privately, there is a feeling that the suspension of campaigning hurt Remain not Leave, as it meant that the campaign had to forego its biggest gun: a warning from Mark Carney, the governor of the Bank of England, that a Brexit vote would mean an interest rate hike. Very few privately share the bullishness about the outcome that the betting markets – which still make Remain the overwhelming favourite – or the currency markets – which are rebounding following a series of good polls – indicate. "
Jo Cox's death has been a massive benefit to Remain.
In terms of tweets, posts and virtue signalling.
As Ed Miliband will testify - it's votes that count.
People signal the virtues they would like others to think they have in many ways. Someone making a point of saying they don't understand people being upset by the murder or that they cannot be upset by the death of a stranger or whatever is just as much virtue signalling as someone wailing over the death of a person they have never met or sending out a sympathetic tweet. It's just a different kind of virtue that they are seeking to signal.
Shadsy kinda pointed out Remain has the same implied probability now that Tory most seats did at 7am on May 7th 2015
NOM was even shorter.
Stop taking those straws from me.
TSE-I genuinely value your opinion so this is an honest question.
Are YOU starting to worry that this isn't going your way?
I am Leave and I am really worrying this is not going my way
So who is wrong or is it just first date nerves??
I'm always nervous, the published polls aren't where I expected them to be, I also did some pieces why Leave were going to win.
But why am I confident? The following reasons
1) The economic questions favour Remain, the polling is similar to what we saw at GE 2015, people won't vote for the option that they consider that makes them worse off. Look at that ComRes supplementary from last week.
2) A few months ago, I met some people from Remain and Vote Leave, they all made the same observation, if Leave spent the last 10 days of the campaign on immigration, they were on course to lose, it was a core vote strategy.
3) When the polls were swinging to Leave, someone from Leave said to me, he wouldn't believe it was genuine until David Cameron announced he was going to veto Turkish member/give the UK a referendum on it.
4) I'm out campaigning for Remain, I'm not seeing what the public polls are showing, just like it was for me in 2015.
Of course the country might vote to Leave on Thursday, and you can all laugh at me
The big difference with 2015 though is that Leadership ratings don't favour David Cameron. Cameron may well still pull it off, but I think it will be a very narrow win.
the big debate tonight will be crucial for both teams, could go either way
"The event, which is the BBC's last live TV debate before the vote on Thursday, will be hosted by David Dimbleby.
The Leave campaign has put forward the same line-up as a previous TV debate: Boris Johnson, Labour MP Gisela Stuart and the energy minister Andrea Leadsom.
The argument for remaining in the EU will be put by Mr Khan, Scottish Conservative leader Ruth Davidson, and Frances O'Grady, general secretary of the Trades Union Congress.
The BBC also expects 200 reporters and spokespeople in the so-called "spin room". "
I read that as Imran Khan, Peter Davidson and Paul O'Grady.
I am thinking that Leave will win. As Montie said on DP today, you can fuss and bother all you like about this economic forecast or that institution's warning, but it is not real (oh it is likely to be, but not for the electorate, today).
We all know the electorate feels impotent, disenfranchised and wants to hit back at the establishment.
The only thing that they can vote for which they believe will be unambiguous and not subject to a 10 year gravity model of international trade, is to stop immigration. It is the only thing that both campaigns, Remain grudgingly, agree on.
And they won't be voting Leave because they are racist or xenophobic (most of them). They will be voting to take control. VLTC's constant use of the free movement take control mantra will be successful. It is irrelevant that they will find out subsequently that it will mean no such thing; even Gove acknowledged it will be 2020 before anything like a start can be made on anti-immigration measures, and of course they have failed miserably to date (for non-EU immigration). To say nothing of a Labour government (which will come at some point, and) which will open the doors wide to all kinds of immigrants.
I called Remain long ago at something like 60:40. But now I am sure that Leave will win.
And of course for the UK, for our economy, and for 98% of people who will have voted to leave the EU, it will be a tragedy.
Pretty much where I am, except I always thought Leave would win because this is a referendum on immigration and most voters want a lot less of it.
That said, given that there is going to be a very heavy financial and economic hangover after we vote Leave - for which Boris has promised to say sorry, of course - I am not at all certain we actually will.
Euro Guido 6s Euro Guido @EuroGuido DEAD CAT ALERT: Rumours of another Osborne intervention. Wants to claim that he'll have to close markets in the event of #Brexit vote.
Finished my last GOTV delivery for the day. My last road of 16 houses had two displaying Vote Leave posters. My feeling is that Leave will win this something like 53/47 and that the Conservative party is in very deep trouble.
What's the sentiment amongst fellow Tories - the ones I know are seriously pissed off.
Very unhappy with the campaign. I was always a Cameron supporter-although not a big fan.
But GO has to go very quickly whatever the result-he has increasingly become the main conduit of the poisonous atmosphere that Leave have been responsible for on their side.
That said the Remain side will have similar opinions about certain Leavers-I would imagine Boris has accumulated plenty of new opponents.
Shadsy kinda pointed out Remain has the same implied probability now that Tory most seats did at 7am on May 7th 2015
NOM was even shorter.
Stop taking those straws from me.
TSE-I genuinely value your opinion so this is an honest question.
Are YOU starting to worry that this isn't going your way?
I am Leave and I am really worrying this is not going my way
So who is wrong or is it just first date nerves??
I'm always nervous, the published polls aren't where I expected them to be, I also did some pieces why Leave were going to win.
But why am I confident? The following reasons
1) The economic questions favour Remain, the polling is similar to what we saw at GE 2015, people won't vote for the option that they consider that makes them worse off. Look at that ComRes supplementary from last week.
2) A few months ago, I met some people from Remain and Vote Leave, they all made the same observation, if Leave spent the last 10 days of the campaign on immigration, they were on course to lose, it was a core vote strategy.
3) When the polls were swinging to Leave, someone from Leave said to me, he wouldn't believe it was genuine until David Cameron announced he was going to veto Turkish member/give the UK a referendum on it.
4) I'm out campaigning for Remain, I'm not seeing what the public polls are showing, just like it was for me in 2015.
Of course the country might vote to Leave on Thursday, and you can all laugh at me
The big difference with 2015 though is that Leadership ratings don't favour David Cameron. Cameron may well still pull it off, but I think it will be a very narrow win.
the big debate tonight will be crucial for both teams, could go either way
"The event, which is the BBC's last live TV debate before the vote on Thursday, will be hosted by David Dimbleby.
The Leave campaign has put forward the same line-up as a previous TV debate: Boris Johnson, Labour MP Gisela Stuart and the energy minister Andrea Leadsom.
The argument for remaining in the EU will be put by Mr Khan, Scottish Conservative leader Ruth Davidson, and Frances O'Grady, general secretary of the Trades Union Congress.
The BBC also expects 200 reporters and spokespeople in the so-called "spin room". "
Will those in the Spin Room be watching the footy on the other side?
Good point its Croatia vs Spain or Czech vs Turkey.
Shadsy kinda pointed out Remain has the same implied probability now that Tory most seats did at 7am on May 7th 2015
NOM was even shorter.
Stop taking those straws from me.
TSE-I genuinely value your opinion so this is an honest question.
Are YOU starting to worry that this isn't going your way?
I am Leave and I am really worrying this is not going my way
So who is wrong or is it just first date nerves??
I'm always nervous, the published polls aren't where I expected them to be, I also did some pieces why Leave were going to win.
But why am I confident? The following reasons
1) The economic questions favour Remain, the polling is similar to what we saw at GE 2015, people won't vote for the option that they consider that makes them worse off. Look at that ComRes supplementary from last week.
2) A few months ago, I met some people from Remain and Vote Leave, they all made the same observation, if Leave spent the last 10 days of the campaign on immigration, they were on course to lose, it was a core vote strategy.
3) When the polls were swinging to Leave, someone from Leave said to me, he wouldn't believe it was genuine until David Cameron announced he was going to veto Turkish member/give the UK a referendum on it.
4) I'm out campaigning for Remain, I'm not seeing what the public polls are showing, just like it was for me in 2015.
Of course the country might vote to Leave on Thursday, and you can all laugh at me
The big difference with 2015 though is that Leadership ratings don't favour David Cameron. Cameron may well still pull it off, but I think it will be a very narrow win.
the big debate tonight will be crucial for both teams, could go either way
"The event, which is the BBC's last live TV debate before the vote on Thursday, will be hosted by David Dimbleby.
The Leave campaign has put forward the same line-up as a previous TV debate: Boris Johnson, Labour MP Gisela Stuart and the energy minister Andrea Leadsom.
The argument for remaining in the EU will be put by Mr Khan, Scottish Conservative leader Ruth Davidson, and Frances O'Grady, general secretary of the Trades Union Congress.
The BBC also expects 200 reporters and spokespeople in the so-called "spin room". "
I read that as Imran Khan, Peter Davidson and Paul O'Grady.
They would outperform the three duds Remain put up last time.
Oh, here he comes again: Euro Guido 6s Euro Guido @EuroGuido DEAD CAT ALERT: Rumours of another Osborne intervention. Wants to claim that he'll have to close markets in the event of #Brexit vote.
We may need the men in white coats to visit Number 11 if this continues.
'My currency trader has just sent out a circular to say the markets are going to go bonkers on Friday- expect a 10-15% fall on Brexit, but remain impact is unknown. Doesn't know if it's price in already or what.'
He doesn't seem to know much,thought about getting a decent trader ?
It was a round robin, sent I guess to many clients.
Anyone, in pb land. If we go remain, what will be the impact on sterling?
Shadsy kinda pointed out Remain has the same implied probability now that Tory most seats did at 7am on May 7th 2015
NOM was even shorter.
Stop taking those straws from me.
TSE-I genuinely value your opinion so this is an honest question.
Are YOU starting to worry that this isn't going your way?
I am Leave and I am really worrying this is not going my way
So who is wrong or is it just first date nerves??
I'm always nervous, the published polls aren't where I expected them to be, I also did some pieces why Leave were going to win.
But why am I confident? The following reasons
1) The economic questions favour Remain, the polling is similar to what we saw at GE 2015, people won't vote for the option that they consider that makes them worse off. Look at that ComRes supplementary from last week.
2) A few months ago, I met some people from Remain and Vote Leave, they all made the same observation, if Leave spent the last 10 days of the campaign on immigration, they were on course to lose, it was a core vote strategy.
3) When the polls were swinging to Leave, someone from Leave said to me, he wouldn't believe it was genuine until David Cameron announced he was going to veto Turkish member/give the UK a referendum on it.
4) I'm out campaigning for Remain, I'm not seeing what the public polls are showing, just like it was for me in 2015.
Of course the country might vote to Leave on Thursday, and you can all laugh at me
Thank you
Unfortunately those are many of the reasons why I am nervous.
Euro Guido 6s Euro Guido @EuroGuido DEAD CAT ALERT: Rumours of another Osborne intervention. Wants to claim that he'll have to close markets in the event of #Brexit vote.
I thought the Leavers complained that the government wasn't doing any contingency planning? Is the complaint now that they are?
I am thinking that Leave will win. As Montie said on DP today, you can fuss and bother all you like about this economic forecast or that institution's warning, but it is not real (oh it is likely to be, but not for the electorate, today).
We all know the electorate feels impotent, disenfranchised and wants to hit back at the establishment.
The only thing that they can vote for which they believe will be unambiguous and not subject to a 10 year gravity model of international trade, is to stop immigration. It is the only thing that both campaigns, Remain grudgingly, agree on.
And they won't be voting Leave because they are racist or xenophobic (most of them). They will be voting to take control. VLTC's constant use of the free movement take control mantra will be successful. It is irrelevant that they will find out subsequently that it will mean no such thing; even Gove acknowledged it will be 2020 before anything like a start can be made on anti-immigration measures, and of course they have failed miserably to date (for non-EU immigration). To say nothing of a Labour government (which will come at some point, and) which will open the doors wide to all kinds of immigrants.
I called Remain long ago at something like 60:40. But now I am sure that Leave will win.
And of course for the UK, for our economy, and for 98% of people who will have voted to leave the EU, it will be a tragedy.
Pretty much where I am, except I always thought Leave would win because this is a referendum on immigration and most voters want a lot less of it.
That said, given that there is going to be a very heavy financial and economic hangover after we vote Leave - for which Boris has promised to say sorry, of course - I am not at all certain we actually will.
It's exquisite.
Does the British Public see sense, despite all the froth and noise?
They always have, I trust them to, but it is as though the schoolboys - saints and sinners - have been allowed, just this once, to throw mud pies at the Headmaster.
"It attests to the worry in Downing Street and the Remain camp generally that, despite a series of slightly more favourable polls this week, things in the country are not going well. Although the message that Downing Street were looking at polls putting them ahead by ten points was well-briefed at the weekend, the message from out in the country – with the exception of England’s big cities and Scotland – is almost uniformly bleak for Remain.
Privately, there is a feeling that the suspension of campaigning hurt Remain not Leave, as it meant that the campaign had to forego its biggest gun: a warning from Mark Carney, the governor of the Bank of England, that a Brexit vote would mean an interest rate hike. Very few privately share the bullishness about the outcome that the betting markets – which still make Remain the overwhelming favourite – or the currency markets – which are rebounding following a series of good polls – indicate. "
Although this latest warning may be enough to avert a Brexit vote on 23 June, it has dramatically brought forward his “use by” date – he hit his “Best Before” date the second he pre-announced his departure during the 2015 election campaign – as if Remain do go on to win from here, it will only further enflame the narrative among his Conservative critics that Cameron behaved dishonourably during the referendum campaign.
"Plato: What's the sentiment amongst fellow Tories - the ones I know are seriously pissed off."
The most active Tories locally here are all working with the Leave campaign. UKIP really helping and they are very good fun.
There is no Remain campaign here. No leaflets or canvassing as far as I have been able to tell.
Leave is working from the local Conservative Club (it is totally independent of the Con Association and has been pretty detached from the party since Maggie left. Her portrait and Churchill's on the wall are the only evidence it has any political association.)
The talk is that he Postal votes are v. very good for us. I said that must be bollocks as no one has seen them etc. . Was told (by a visiting MP) that when they are put face down for the validation process the ballot paper is transparent and you can clearly see the X. Those involved in the process indicate heavy Leave postal voting.
Interestingly I was told (by a KiIpper) that UKIP is likely to split post referendum. Farage/Nuttal one way Carswell/Paddy Flynn/Evans the other.
My big surprise of the campaign is how much I have in common with the Labour Leave crowd. Heard Kelvin Hopkins (Luton N MP) speak and he was fantastic. Like Hurst Lama this is the most favourable I have ever felt to Labour.
Shadsy kinda pointed out Remain has the same implied probability now that Tory most seats did at 7am on May 7th 2015
NOM was even shorter.
Stop taking those straws from me.
TSE-I genuinely value your opinion so this is an honest question.
Are YOU starting to worry that this isn't going your way?
I am Leave and I am really worrying this is not going my way
So who is wrong or is it just first date nerves??
I'm always nervous, the published polls aren't where I expected them to be, I also did some pieces why Leave were going to win.
But why am I confident? The following reasons
1) The economic questions favour Remain, the polling is similar to what we saw at GE 2015, people won't vote for the option that they consider that makes them worse off. Look at that ComRes supplementary from last week.
2) A few months ago, I met some people from Remain and Vote Leave, they all made the same observation, if Leave spent the last 10 days of the campaign on immigration, they were on course to lose, it was a core vote strategy.
3) When the polls were swinging to Leave, someone from Leave said to me, he wouldn't believe it was genuine until David Cameron announced he was going to veto Turkish member/give the UK a referendum on it.
4) I'm out campaigning for Remain, I'm not seeing what the public polls are showing, just like it was for me in 2015.
Of course the country might vote to Leave on Thursday, and you can all laugh at me
IIRC your GE2015 was marginal campaigning round Pudsey, Morley &c. Out of interest, given there are no marginals, where have your guys been targeting this time - are you Tories getting out in Tory friendly areas?
@faisalislam: So the new Leave campaign economic guru cited by Gove, a Leave EU donor announced he was shorting pound this morn: https://t.co/8CiC5xWGvd
Bloody experts, eh?
He expects a sudden market reaction - he does not say he expects it will last.
I don't what they actually did, but if I were running the Tory's campaign I would be using my private polls to monitor how effectively the campaign was going and deploying resources and arguments to try and improve the Tory vote. I wouldn't waste time on trying to accurately predict the outcome, I'd be going for the best outcome I could achieve. If they did that they would be focusing on the negative results and might well have a relatively pessimistic impression of what was happening.
But which side is the Tory Party on, Mr Recidivist? The problem is that Tory ministers are heading both campaigns.
This may be a situation where they are bound to win, whatever the outcome. But by the same token, they are also bound to lose.
Euro Guido 6s Euro Guido @EuroGuido DEAD CAT ALERT: Rumours of another Osborne intervention. Wants to claim that he'll have to close markets in the event of #Brexit vote.
Markets closed - where will we buy our fruit and veg?
My big surprise of the campaign is how much I have in common with the Labour Leave crowd. Heard Kelvin Hopkins (Luton N MP) speak and he was fantastic. Like Hurst Lama this is the most favourable I have ever felt to Labour.
Worth noting that many students will now be on holiday having finished exams. Those that have registered may not have arranged a postal vote or proxy vote. So the turnout amongst students could be quite low.
and Cameron/Osborne had control of the election timing....
Topping I think the naughty schoolboys see a deeper truth that the Headmaster doesn't see. It's not all about the money.
Seems like everybody's got a price I wonder how they sleep at night. When the tale comes first And the truth comes second Just stop, for a minute and Smile
It's not about the money, money, money We don't need your money, money, money We just wanna make the world dance Forget about the Price Tag
Euro Guido 6s Euro Guido @EuroGuido DEAD CAT ALERT: Rumours of another Osborne intervention. Wants to claim that he'll have to close markets in the event of #Brexit vote.
I'd have thought those advocating Brexit would want Osborne on the TV as much as possible. Can someone lock him away from now till Thursday ?
Euro Guido 6s Euro Guido @EuroGuido DEAD CAT ALERT: Rumours of another Osborne intervention. Wants to claim that he'll have to close markets in the event of #Brexit vote.
I can't help feeling that after being compared to Neville Chamberlain on BBC1 - plus all the other brickbats from rowdy voters, his confidence has been seriously bruised. He didn't come across as his smooth urbane self on breakfast telly and this snap press conf just confirms his emotional need to get in front of the cameras to make his case. I think it's a mistake. When your boss is upset, he's not thinking rationally - nor will it make him a good advocate. Far too much raw feeling on display - and when that's fear, we can all see it.
Agreed. Not thinking clearly. 4 in 5 of voters do not agree with the statement that they trust you. A mixture of distrust and indifference. Therefore you go and make yourself the main spokesman yet again when the polling data says it should be someone that they have more trust in and someone appealing to Labour working class people.... Number 10 should have asked a number 10 cleaner to come out and make the speech - it would have been better received.
It's such a core personal thing - if you feel attacked, hurt, called a liar - it's natural to want to *set the record straight*.
Or called a racist, a neanderthal knuckle-dragger, a Little Englander. To have your intelligence insulted. It's natural to want to set the record straight, Prime Minister....
"are you Tories getting out in Tory friendly areas? "
Split. My GOTV today 50% spent in a rather run down WWC 60's housing estate that we certainly would not have voted Tory and 50% on bungalow roads (elderly Tory voters).
Euro Guido 6s Euro Guido @EuroGuido DEAD CAT ALERT: Rumours of another Osborne intervention. Wants to claim that he'll have to close markets in the event of #Brexit vote.
I'd have thought those advocating Brexit would want Osborne on the TV as much as possible. Can someone lock him away from now till Thursday ?
Shadsy kinda pointed out Remain has the same implied probability now that Tory most seats did at 7am on May 7th 2015
NOM was even shorter.
Stop taking those straws from me.
2) A few months ago, I met some people from Remain and Vote Leave, they all made the same observation, if Leave spent the last 10 days of the campaign on immigration, they were on course to lose, it was a core vote strategy.
3) When the polls were swinging to Leave, someone from Leave said to me, he wouldn't believe it was genuine until David Cameron announced he was going to veto Turkish member/give the UK a referendum on it.
4) I'm out campaigning for Remain, I'm not seeing what the public polls are showing, just like it was for me in 2015.
Of course the country might vote to Leave on Thursday, and you can all laugh at me
The big difference with 2015 though is that Leadership ratings don't favour David Cameron. Cameron may well still pull it off, but I think it will be a very narrow win.
the big debate tonight will be crucial for both teams, could go either way
"The event, which is the BBC's last live TV debate before the vote on Thursday, will be hosted by David Dimbleby.
The Leave campaign has put forward the same line-up as a previous TV debate: Boris Johnson, Labour MP Gisela Stuart and the energy minister Andrea Leadsom.
The argument for remaining in the EU will be put by Mr Khan, Scottish Conservative leader Ruth Davidson, and Frances O'Grady, general secretary of the Trades Union Congress.
The BBC also expects 200 reporters and spokespeople in the so-called "spin room". "
I read that as Imran Khan, Peter Davidson and Paul O'Grady.
That'd be a great line up.
What value will Diq Khan and O'Grady offer? I can understand Ruth, a dynamic and highly plausible operator. But Diq and Francis (or Diq Francis if you prefer)? A slippery ex human rights shyster and someone nobody's ever heard of? Huge risk from Remain, and incredible the leader of the Labour party is either not deemed good enough or is too scared to offer himself.
"Plato: What's the sentiment amongst fellow Tories - the ones I know are seriously pissed off."
The most active Tories locally here are all working with the Leave campaign. UKIP really helping and they are very good fun.
There is no Remain campaign here. No leaflets or canvassing as far as I have been able to tell.
Leave is working from the local Conservative Club (it is totally independent of the Con Association and has been pretty detached from the party since Maggie left. Her portrait and Churchill's on the wall are the only evidence it has any political association.)
The talk is that he Postal votes are v. very good for us. I said that must be bollocks as no one has seen them etc. . Was told (by a visiting MP) that when they are put face down for the validation process the ballot paper is transparent and you can clearly see the X. Those involved in the process indicate heavy Leave postal voting.
Interestingly I was told (by a KiIpper) that UKIP is likely to split post referendum. Farage/Nuttal one way Carswell/Paddy Flynn/Evans the other.
My big surprise of the campaign is how much I have in common with the Labour Leave crowd. Heard Kelvin Hopkins (Luton N MP) speak and he was fantastic. Like Hurst Lama this is the most favourable I have ever felt to Labour.
I'm having dinner with Kelvin in a few weeks. Be interesting to hear his take then on the state of the parties. Given he was a Corbyn -nominator....
My big surprise of the campaign is how much I have in common with the Labour Leave crowd. Heard Kelvin Hopkins (Luton N MP) speak and he was fantastic. Like Hurst Lama this is the most favourable I have ever felt to Labour.
Topping I think the naughty schoolboys see a deeper truth that the Headmaster doesn't see. It's not all about the money.
Seems like everybody's got a price I wonder how they sleep at night. When the tale comes first And the truth comes second Just stop, for a minute and Smile
It's not about the money, money, money We don't need your money, money, money We just wanna make the world dance Forget about the Price Tag
My big surprise of the campaign is how much I have in common with the Labour Leave crowd. Heard Kelvin Hopkins (Luton N MP) speak and he was fantastic. Like Hurst Lama this is the most favourable I have ever felt to Labour.
Same here: Labour Leave very good, organised by the very passionate Brendan Chilton
Euro Guido 6s Euro Guido @EuroGuido DEAD CAT ALERT: Rumours of another Osborne intervention. Wants to claim that he'll have to close markets in the event of #Brexit vote.
I thought the Leavers complained that the government wasn't doing any contingency planning? Is the complaint now that they are?
I think closing the markets is a very, very sensible thing to do. Let people calm down and reflect a bit over the weekend.
Yes we leaving across these undefeatable odds its like this man, you can't put a price on the life we do this for the love so we fight and sacrifice everynight so we aint gon stumble and fall never waiting to see, a sign of defeat uh uh so we gon keep everyone moving their feet so bring back the beat and everybody sing It's not about the money, money, money We don't need your money, money, money We just wanna make the world dance Forget about the Price Tag
I am thinking that Leave will win. As Montie said on DP today, you can fuss and bother all you like about this economic forecast or that institution's warning, but it is not real (oh it is likely to be, but not for the electorate, today).
We all know the electorate feels impotent, disenfranchised and wants to hit back at the establishment.
The only thing that they can vote for which they believe will be unambiguous and not subject to a 10 year gravity model of international trade, is to stop immigration. It is the only thing that both campaigns, Remain grudgingly, agree on.
And they won't be voting Leave because they are racist or xenophobic (most of them). They will of immigrants.
I called Remain long ago at something like 60:40. But now I am sure that Leave will win.
And of course for the UK, for our economy, and for 98% of people who will have voted to leave the EU, it will be a tragedy.
Pretty much where I am, except I always thought Leave would win because this is a referendum on immigration and most voters want a lot less of it.
That said, given that there is going to be a very heavy financial and economic hangover after we vote Leave - for which Boris has promised to say sorry, of course - I am not at all certain we actually will.
It's exquisite.
Does the British Public see sense, despite all the froth and noise?
They always have, I trust them to, but it is as though the schoolboys - saints and sinners - have been allowed, just this once, to throw mud pies at the Headmaster.
Who wouldn't be tempted?
The PM and the Chancellor have spent years telling the great British public that the EU is a pain in the arse and that a large number of EU immigrants are coming over here just to claim benefits. They have also contrived to concentrate most public spending cuts in the Labour areas where most immigrants go. You can't blame voters for thinking that they have been sold a complete turkey.
But the anger they feel currently for Dave and George is only going to intensify when they realise they have been sold an entire farm of turkeys by Boris and Mike; when housing doesn't get cheaper, when wages do not improve and jobs get cut, when prices go up, public services are cut even further and there is no significant drop in immigration. Boris's sorry will not be enough. It is going to be carnage.
We are about to enter a long period during which we will not have any kind of effective government in this country. A few people will grow very rich on the back of the uncertainty, most are going to get a lot poorer.
Shadsy kinda pointed out Remain has the same implied probability now that Tory most seats did at 7am on May 7th 2015
NOM was even shorter.
Stop taking those straws from me.
TSE-I genuinely value your opinion so this is an honest question.
Are YOU starting to worry that this isn't going your way?
I am Leave and I am really worrying this is not going my way
So who is wrong or is it just first date nerves??
I'm always nervous, the published polls aren't where I expected them to be, I also did some pieces why Leave were going to win.
But why am I confident? The following reasons
1) The economic questions favour Remain, the polling is similar to what we saw at GE 2015, people won't vote for the option that they consider that makes them worse off. Look at that ComRes supplementary from last week.
2) A few months ago, I met some people from Remain and Vote Leave, they all made the same observation, if Leave spent the last 10 days of the campaign on immigration, they were on course to lose, it was a core vote strategy.
3) When the polls were swinging to Leave, someone from Leave said to me, he wouldn't believe it was genuine until David Cameron announced he was going to veto Turkish member/give the UK a referendum on it.
4) I'm out campaigning for Remain, I'm not seeing what the public polls are showing, just like it was for me in 2015.
Of course the country might vote to Leave on Thursday, and you can all laugh at me
IIRC your GE2015 was marginal campaigning round Pudsey, Morley &c. Out of interest, given there are no marginals, where have your guys been targeting this time - are you Tories getting out in Tory friendly areas?
I initially did some stuff in Sheffield, trying to ensure we didn't take the voters for granted, but most of the work has been done in the West Yorkshire area, including the non marginals.
It's not so much by party ID we're targeting but what the voter considers important.
We are playing up very much that is is a cross-party alliance.
Euro Guido 6s Euro Guido @EuroGuido DEAD CAT ALERT: Rumours of another Osborne intervention. Wants to claim that he'll have to close markets in the event of #Brexit vote.
I thought the Leavers complained that the government wasn't doing any contingency planning? Is the complaint now that they are?
I think closing the markets is a very, very sensible thing to do. Let people calm down and reflect a bit over the weekend.
In today's globalised financial markets, I'm not sure there's much they can do TBH. The main thing will be to provide liquidity to banks.
Euro Guido 6s Euro Guido @EuroGuido DEAD CAT ALERT: Rumours of another Osborne intervention. Wants to claim that he'll have to close markets in the event of #Brexit vote.
Osborne gets the message out about market chaos without having to add his signature. What you were saying about Remain talking about the £350 million figure.
Looking at the 3 that are presenting the REMAIN case tonight, how motivated are 2 of them to win? For Frances O'Grady and Sadiq Khan they almost have no skin in the game on the outcome of the referendum. If we LEAVE, Cameron and Osborne are out and their main opponent can watch as they are removed/sacked. LEAVE would be quite a nice result from Labour. Sadiq has his new job to focus on post referendum. Just like the ERM, where the Labour party agreed with the policy and then enjoyed the fruits from its failure.
Ruth of course is the only one trying to get a win for Dave. But she will do that with her companions attacking the Conservatives about the impact of austerity, sucking it up like Amber did.
It's such a core personal thing - if you feel attacked, hurt, called a liar - it's natural to want to *set the record straight*. It's almost always a mistake to do it whilst you feel hot with emotion. I'd be amazed if Number 10 spinners recommended this - I've had too many bosses who reacted just like Cameron and wouldn't listen to advice/felt an overwhelming need to react.
You are probably right. He lost his temper and his staff are not able to persuade him otherwise.
Cameron is one of the last few people in the country who actually believes what Cameron says to be true. To have a close friend explain regretfully that you're either a liar or grossly incompetent must have been a hard blow.
Euro Guido 6s Euro Guido @EuroGuido DEAD CAT ALERT: Rumours of another Osborne intervention. Wants to claim that he'll have to close markets in the event of #Brexit vote.
I thought the Leavers complained that the government wasn't doing any contingency planning? Is the complaint now that they are?
I think closing the markets is a very, very sensible thing to do. Let people calm down and reflect a bit over the weekend.
In today's globalised financial markets, I'm not sure there's much they can do TBH. The main thing will be to provide liquidity to banks.
Would it not protect the smaller businesses which are only listed here?
My big surprise of the campaign is how much I have in common with the Labour Leave crowd. Heard Kelvin Hopkins (Luton N MP) speak and he was fantastic. Like Hurst Lama this is the most favourable I have ever felt to Labour.
Kelvin is very good value - in the Corbyn mould of unflinching left-wing principle combined with unremitting politeness and personal modesty. I remember once asking for his support for a PLP election as I knew him well. He said quietly that he was only nominating critics of Tony's Iraq policies, so he would have to decline, but he did it so nicely that I felt I'd had a pleasant conversation rather than a rejection. I've told various people that I'd like to see him in the Shadow Cabinet.
Personally I think that the climate is more favourable to this sort of civil leftism (as opposed to clever Blairite triangulation or Scargillite shouting) than it has been for a long time. People want an alternative but not a bunch of ranters.
Spoke to a senior Remain source in Southampton today - they are quietly confident there, but know nothing of what's happening elsewhere. Another source says the reports from postal votes in general look surprisingly positive. But that contradicts another post downthread, so who knows, really?
MarqueMark- Please pass on my good wishes and thanks to Kelvin.
I saw him speak in Bedford. The audience was predominantly Tory/UKIP with Nadine and Paddy Flynn on the platform. Kelvin was very warm and went down very well indeed.
"Plato: What's the sentiment amongst fellow Tories - the ones I know are seriously pissed off."
The most active Tories locally here are all working with the Leave campaign. UKIP really helping and they are very good fun.
There is no Remain campaign here. No leaflets or canvassing as far as I have been able to tell.
Leave is working from the local Conservative Club (it is totally independent of the Con Association and has been pretty detached from the party since Maggie left. Her portrait and Churchill's on the wall are the only evidence it has any political association.)
The talk is that he Postal votes are v. very good for us. I said that must be bollocks as no one has seen them etc. . Was told (by a visiting MP) that when they are put face down for the validation process the ballot paper is transparent and you can clearly see the X. Those involved in the process indicate heavy Leave postal voting.
Interestingly I was told (by a KiIpper) that UKIP is likely to split post referendum. Farage/Nuttal one way Carswell/Paddy Flynn/Evans the other.
My big surprise of the campaign is how much I have in common with the Labour Leave crowd. Heard Kelvin Hopkins (Luton N MP) speak and he was fantastic. Like Hurst Lama this is the most favourable I have ever felt to Labour.
Brendan Chilton from LabourLeave is super. I've much more in common with him, Gisela et al than Number 10.
If we vote to leave would Cameron and Osborne engage in sabotage? Unthinkable I would have thought but Osborne can't be serious about closing the markets. We didn't even do that when we had a huge financial crisis! Admittedly contingency planning has to be done in private but surely you don't blab in public about a rather far-fetched worse case scenario?
This is an excellent measured piece on Brexit from Paul Krugman and sums up my feelings pretty well. And proof that liberals don't all spend their time sneering at the plebs for a living.
Would it not protect the smaller businesses which are only listed here?
They won't be at risk from short-term volatility of their share prices. I suppose a few high net-worth individuals and entrepreneurs might have loans secured against shares, but banks aren't going to panic about those in the timescales we're talking about.
'Pretty much where I am, except I always thought Leave would win because this is a referendum on immigration and most voters want a lot less of it.
That said, given that there is going to be a very heavy financial and economic hangover after we vote Leave - for which Boris has promised to say sorry, of course - I am not at all certain we actually will. '
At least you will be able to say you called the outcome of the referendum correctly.
Looking at the 3 that are presenting the REMAIN case tonight, how motivated are 2 of them to win? For Frances O'Grady and Sadiq Khan they almost have no skin in the game on the outcome of the referendum. If we LEAVE, Cameron and Osborne are out and their main opponent can watch as they are removed/sacked. LEAVE would be quite a nice result from Labour. Sadiq has his new job to focus on post referendum. Just like the ERM, where the Labour party agreed with the policy and then enjoyed the fruits from its failure.
Ruth of course is the only one trying to get a win for Dave. But she will do that with her companions attacking the Conservatives about the impact of austerity, sucking it up like Amber did.
London will be very exposed when we Leave and with Boris and Mike in charge in Downing Street the possibility of more anti-union legislation is very real. So I reckon both have plenty to play for.
I know nothing about Frances O'Grady so can give no opinion on how she will perform, Sadiq is very managerial in tone and will certainly not be inspirational. But then I don't think that any of the Leavers are like that either, unless Boris gets going. Davison will have the most experience of performing in front of a very noisy, partisan crowd - it will be interesting to see how it affects them all. When it gets really noisy, it may get harder to stick to the lines and tactics agreed pre-game.
My big surprise of the campaign is how much I have in common with the Labour Leave crowd. Heard Kelvin Hopkins (Luton N MP) speak and he was fantastic. Like Hurst Lama this is the most favourable I have ever felt to Labour.
Brendan Chilton from LabourLeave is super. I've much more in common with him, Gisela et al than Number 10.
That's the Tory splits sorted out then. Any unreconciled Eurosceptics can go and join old Labour.
Would it not protect the smaller businesses which are only listed here?
They won't be at risk from short-term volatility of their share prices. I suppose a few high net-worth individuals and entrepreneurs might have loans secured against shares, but banks aren't going to panic about those in the timescales we're talking about.
Fair enough, I bow to your (obviously) superior knowledge on the issue!
I just thought a choke on the volumes being traded would mitigate a panic run. As you infer, perhaps that is yesterday's thinking...
Short sterling in the short term if you must, but I reckon in the long term it will be the pound's strength we will need to worry about if we Brexit
Offshore of a crumbling European Union, we will be a safe haven currency.
Roger Bootle was highlighting the risk of being strapped to a trade bloc that is strapped to the eurozone in the Telegraph the other day.
The economic risks of staying in are huge for me. Massive. The euro project is building up huge imbalances between South and Northern Europe. The integration needed to make it work just isn;t supported by the countries involved.
I am thinking that Leave will win. As Montie said on DP today, you can fuss and bother all you like about this economic forecast or that institution's warning, but it is not real (oh it is likely to be, but not for the electorate, today).
Pretty much where I am, except I always thought Leave would win because this is a referendum on immigration and most voters want a lot less of it.
That said, given that there is going to be a very heavy financial and economic hangover after we vote Leave - for which Boris has promised to say sorry, of course - I am not at all certain we actually will.
It's exquisite.
Does the British Public see sense, despite all the froth and noise?
They always have, I trust them to, but it is as though the schoolboys - saints and sinners - have been allowed, just this once, to throw mud pies at the Headmaster.
Who wouldn't be tempted?
The PM and the Chancellor have spent years telling the great British public that the EU is a pain in the arse and that a large number of EU immigrants are coming over here just to claim benefits. They have also contrived to concentrate most public spending cuts in the Labour areas where most immigrants go. You can't blame voters for thinking that they have been sold a complete turkey.
But the anger they feel currently for Dave and George is only going to intensify when they realise they have been sold an entire farm of turkeys by Boris and Mike; when housing doesn't get cheaper, when wages do not improve and jobs get cut, when prices go up, public services are cut even further and there is no significant drop in immigration. Boris's sorry will not be enough. It is going to be carnage.
We are about to enter a long period during which we will not have any kind of effective government in this country. A few people will grow very rich on the back of the uncertainty, most are going to get a lot poorer.
The entire Remain campaign has been completely absent of a positive vision. It was just scare story after scare story, culminating in a distasteful exploitation of a young woman's murder. We will remain in the EU, but it is hard to think of how it could be done in a worse manner. That will have ramifications. Rather than closing the issue, the eurosceptics will put in one of their own as leader and the matter will continue. The only way this will not happen is if the next Tory leader does another Cameron on the menbership, riding their euroscepticism to power and then selling them out in office.
Topping I think the naughty schoolboys see a deeper truth that the Headmaster doesn't see. It's not all about the money.
Seems like everybody's got a price I wonder how they sleep at night. When the tale comes first And the truth comes second Just stop, for a minute and Smile
It's not about the money, money, money We don't need your money, money, money We just wanna make the world dance Forget about the Price Tag
I shared a house in south London many years ago. In the dead of night, we were woken by the local cops, asking if we recognised this TV. Yes, it was ours, as a gap in the front room attested. A patrol car had come round a corner to find two youth carrying it across the road, one at each end. Our neighbours from across the road. Banged to rights.
Except....
They both got charged with burglary. Not conspiracy, not receiving stolen goods. Just burglary. That requires proof that the person was in the property. Each said they had not been in the house, the other had been in the house and taken it, whilst they were just in the road, waiting.
Result? They both got off...
The Mail (which I used to read for some reason) once had a detective series where this wheeze was used to get two suspects off a murder charge - each confessed at each other's trials. The series stopped abruptly and I wondered if the editor had decided it wasn't in the public interest.
My favourite story of this ilk is from a friend in a rough bit of Nottingham, whose door burst open one night, smashed down by a hoodlum. "What do you think you're doing?" asked my friend indignantly. "Uh, sorry mate, wrong door", said the hoodlum apologetically. He scratched his head for a moment, then ran out and...broke down the next door.
Looking at the 3 that are presenting the REMAIN case tonight, how motivated are 2 of them to win? For Frances O'Grady and Sadiq Khan they almost have no skin in the game on the outcome of the referendum. If we LEAVE, Cameron and Osborne are out and their main opponent can watch as they are removed/sacked. LEAVE would be quite a nice result from Labour. Sadiq has his new job to focus on post referendum. Just like the ERM, where the Labour party agreed with the policy and then enjoyed the fruits from its failure.
Ruth of course is the only one trying to get a win for Dave. But she will do that with her companions attacking the Conservatives about the impact of austerity, sucking it up like Amber did.
London will be very exposed when we Leave and with Boris and Mike in charge in Downing Street the possibility of more anti-union legislation is very real. So I reckon both have plenty to play for.
I know nothing about Frances O'Grady so can give no opinion on how she will perform, Sadiq is very managerial in tone and will certainly not be inspirational. But then I don't think that any of the Leavers are like that either, unless Boris gets going. Davison will have the most experience of performing in front of a very noisy, partisan crowd - it will be interesting to see how it affects them all. When it gets really noisy, it may get harder to stick to the lines and tactics agreed pre-game.
I know nothing much about Frances – I guess having a TUC boss on board is strategically useful.
Will anyone watch this when the football is on anyway? Croatia vs Spain is an attractive fixture with Croatia needing to win.
Short sterling in the short term if you must, but I reckon in the long term it will be the pound's strength we will need to worry about if we Brexit
Offshore of a crumbling European Union, we will be a safe haven currency.
Roger Bootle was highlighting the risk of being strapped to a trade bloc that is strapped to the eurozone in the Telegraph the other day.
The economic risks of staying in are huge for me. Massive. The euro project is building up huge imbalances between South and Northern Europe. The integration needed to make it work just isn;t supported by the countries involved.
Exactly, the bail out money, migration funding et al - we'll get a massive bill for it.
Comments
Ed's teen army did not.
'My currency trader has just sent out a circular to say the markets are going to go bonkers on Friday- expect a 10-15% fall on Brexit, but remain impact is unknown. Doesn't know if it's price in already or what.'
He doesn't seem to know much,thought about getting a decent trader ?
Says those betting on REMAIN bet an average of £450 whilst those betting on LEAVE bet on average less than £100.
So rich people placing bets on REMAIN and poorer people placing bets on LEAVE - no doubt based on the opinions of the people they mix with.
Hence the difference between the betting odds which stronly favour REMAIN and the pollsters' 50/50.
Been all over Twitter since about 10pm yesterday.
"It attests to the worry in Downing Street and the Remain camp generally that, despite a series of slightly more favourable polls this week, things in the country are not going well. Although the message that Downing Street were looking at polls putting them ahead by ten points was well-briefed at the weekend, the message from out in the country – with the exception of England’s big cities and Scotland – is almost uniformly bleak for Remain.
Privately, there is a feeling that the suspension of campaigning hurt Remain not Leave, as it meant that the campaign had to forego its biggest gun: a warning from Mark Carney, the governor of the Bank of England, that a Brexit vote would mean an interest rate hike. Very few privately share the bullishness about the outcome that the betting markets – which still make Remain the overwhelming favourite – or the currency markets – which are rebounding following a series of good polls – indicate. "
That'd be a great line up.
True Mr Topping, but is that feeling justified? I think it is. I also think it will increase unless we address it now.
That said, given that there is going to be a very heavy financial and economic hangover after we vote Leave - for which Boris has promised to say sorry, of course - I am not at all certain we actually will.
Euro Guido
6s
Euro Guido @EuroGuido
DEAD CAT ALERT: Rumours of another Osborne intervention. Wants to claim that he'll have to close markets in the event of #Brexit vote.
I was always a Cameron supporter-although not a big fan.
But GO has to go very quickly whatever the result-he has increasingly become the main conduit of the poisonous atmosphere that Leave have been responsible for on their side.
That said the Remain side will have similar opinions about certain Leavers-I would imagine Boris has accumulated plenty of new opponents.
The fact that I completely disagree with Jo Cox's politics should have no bearing on the fact that her murder was a terrible act.
I've seen a few people on twitter wishing it had happened to Farage, and I was thinking you morons, it shouldn't happen to anyone
Anyone, in pb land. If we go remain, what will be the impact on sterling?
Unfortunately those are many of the reasons why I am nervous.
Does the British Public see sense, despite all the froth and noise?
They always have, I trust them to, but it is as though the schoolboys - saints and sinners - have been allowed, just this once, to throw mud pies at the Headmaster.
Who wouldn't be tempted?
The most active Tories locally here are all working with the Leave campaign. UKIP really helping and they are very good fun.
There is no Remain campaign here. No leaflets or canvassing as far as I have been able to tell.
Leave is working from the local Conservative Club (it is totally independent of the Con Association and has been pretty detached from the party since Maggie left. Her portrait and Churchill's on the wall are the only evidence it has any political association.)
The talk is that he Postal votes are v. very good for us. I said that must be bollocks as no one has seen them etc. . Was told (by a visiting MP) that when they are put face down for the validation process the ballot paper is transparent and you can clearly see the X. Those involved in the process indicate heavy Leave postal voting.
Interestingly I was told (by a KiIpper) that UKIP is likely to split post referendum. Farage/Nuttal one way Carswell/Paddy Flynn/Evans the other.
My big surprise of the campaign is how much I have in common with the Labour Leave crowd. Heard Kelvin Hopkins (Luton N MP) speak and he was fantastic. Like Hurst Lama this is the most favourable I have ever felt to Labour.
This may be a situation where they are bound to win, whatever the outcome. But by the same token, they are also bound to lose.
*rolls eyes heavenwards....*
Those that have registered may not have arranged a postal vote or proxy vote.
So the turnout amongst students could be quite low.
Seems like everybody's got a price
I wonder how they sleep at night.
When the tale comes first
And the truth comes second
Just stop, for a minute and
Smile
It's not about the money, money, money
We don't need your money, money, money
We just wanna make the world dance
Forget about the Price Tag
Split. My GOTV today 50% spent in a rather run down WWC 60's housing estate that we certainly would not have voted Tory and 50% on bungalow roads (elderly Tory voters).
Buy on the rumour - sell on the announcement.
Whilst the movement is one way, I wonder if it's genuine movement or just a gentle shift back to reality after an emotive weekend.
Another thought on the Cameron mini-speech: trying to bump Hilton off the top slot?
Until Friday morning, I shall now rely entirely on PB for fair, balanced and informed guidance and insight on what is really happening......
Gulp.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3651956/Hundreds-migrants-closed-Calais-violent-rampage-tried-board-ferries-UK-police-used-tear-gas-force-back.html
UPDATED: 14:56, 21 June 2016
Prophetic: ?
Yes we leaving across these undefeatable odds
its like this man, you can't put a price on the life
we do this for the love so we fight and sacrifice everynight
so we aint gon stumble and fall never
waiting to see, a sign of defeat uh uh
so we gon keep everyone moving their feet
so bring back the beat and everybody sing
It's not about the money, money, money
We don't need your money, money, money
We just wanna make the world dance
Forget about the Price Tag
But the anger they feel currently for Dave and George is only going to intensify when they realise they have been sold an entire farm of turkeys by Boris and Mike; when housing doesn't get cheaper, when wages do not improve and jobs get cut, when prices go up, public services are cut even further and there is no significant drop in immigration. Boris's sorry will not be enough. It is going to be carnage.
We are about to enter a long period during which we will not have any kind of effective government in this country. A few people will grow very rich on the back of the uncertainty, most are going to get a lot poorer.
It's not so much by party ID we're targeting but what the voter considers important.
We are playing up very much that is is a cross-party alliance.
The 3% rise- against a 10-15% fall- that pretty much reflects the betting markets that remain is 3 to 4-1 on.
Ruth of course is the only one trying to get a win for Dave. But she will do that with her companions attacking the Conservatives about the impact of austerity, sucking it up like Amber did.
Cameron is one of the last few people in the country who actually believes what Cameron says to be true. To have a close friend explain regretfully that you're either a liar or grossly incompetent must have been a hard blow.
So would the Three Amigos
http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0092086/
Personally I think that the climate is more favourable to this sort of civil leftism (as opposed to clever Blairite triangulation or Scargillite shouting) than it has been for a long time. People want an alternative but not a bunch of ranters.
Spoke to a senior Remain source in Southampton today - they are quietly confident there, but know nothing of what's happening elsewhere. Another source says the reports from postal votes in general look surprisingly positive. But that contradicts another post downthread, so who knows, really?
I saw him speak in Bedford. The audience was predominantly Tory/UKIP with Nadine and Paddy Flynn on the platform. Kelvin was very warm and went down very well indeed.
This is an excellent measured piece on Brexit from Paul Krugman and sums up my feelings pretty well. And proof that liberals don't all spend their time sneering at the plebs for a living.
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/17/opinion/fear-loathing-and-brexit.html
'Pretty much where I am, except I always thought Leave would win because this is a referendum on immigration and most voters want a lot less of it.
That said, given that there is going to be a very heavy financial and economic hangover after we vote Leave - for which Boris has promised to say sorry, of course - I am not at all certain we actually will. '
At least you will be able to say you called the outcome of the referendum correctly.
I know nothing about Frances O'Grady so can give no opinion on how she will perform, Sadiq is very managerial in tone and will certainly not be inspirational. But then I don't think that any of the Leavers are like that either, unless Boris gets going. Davison will have the most experience of performing in front of a very noisy, partisan crowd - it will be interesting to see how it affects them all. When it gets really noisy, it may get harder to stick to the lines and tactics agreed pre-game.
I just thought a choke on the volumes being traded would mitigate a panic run. As you infer, perhaps that is yesterday's thinking...
Remain would need to win 2/3rds of undecideds on those numbers. Yay!
My favourite story of this ilk is from a friend in a rough bit of Nottingham, whose door burst open one night, smashed down by a hoodlum. "What do you think you're doing?" asked my friend indignantly. "Uh, sorry mate, wrong door", said the hoodlum apologetically. He scratched his head for a moment, then ran out and...broke down the next door.
Will anyone watch this when the football is on anyway? Croatia vs Spain is an attractive fixture with Croatia needing to win.
7 May General Election results (GB only)[7][8] 29,980,107 37.8% 31.2% 8.1% 12.9% 3.8% 6.3%
30 Apr–6 May SurveyMonkey[11] 18,131 34% 28% 7% 13% 8% 9% 6%
The main way to put this right is to manage a fall in sterling.
If REMAIN campaign is to be believed sterling will fall if we vote LEAVE.
So REMAIN are arguing to vote LEAVE to improve the economy.