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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Four of the last pollsters to report have LEAVE doing bette
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Four of the last pollsters to report have LEAVE doing better
Polling analysis where you have plenty of surveys is all about direction of travel and there’s a very clear message from the latest referendum surveys – it’s getting tighter and LEAVE’s position is improving.
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The PM looked quite rattled outside Number 10.
Why is Leave still 4.1 on Betfair?
...The NOs have it"
FPT, re Cameron's odd speech. Controversial claim: I reckon Cameron is a better - more "authentically" emotive - actor than Blair but a worse liar - looks less comfortable when expressing outright falsehoods. (If you didn't like Blair's super-slick smoothness, even his heartspoken truthful guff sounded suspiciously non-credible, but if you gave him a pass on that, he could segue flawlessly into equally earnest economy with l'actualité. With Cameron it is usually clearer when he thinks he is on dodgy territory.)
His private pollster has been quite relaxed on Twitter in recent days.
Hhhmmm.
At least with a referendum binary choice, most of us should be all green as the counting starts.
The final Crosby-Textor polling had the Tories winning 329 seats.
Cameron needs a thumping win to kill Boris's chances for good.
There is nothing, literally nothing he can do now to convince me to vote tory again whilst he is leader, let alone vote remain.
Former BNP Member Has Given £600,000 To Vote Leave
https://www.buzzfeed.com/jimwaterson/vote-leave-donor?utm_term=.hb2ZQWGRkR#.spwgLeBwlw
Euro Guido @EuroGuido
Purdah rules couldn't be clearer: "Government property should not be used for campaigning" http://order-order.com/2016/06/21/purdah-he-smote/ …
North East Derbyshire, out. (55-45)
Derbyshire, out (53-47)
In summary out, out, out !
NB - re: marginal/ non marginals. The lowest seats for share of voting are well known to be Labour safe ones. If traditional Labour voters don't come out because the know the seat is safe, but DO come out on this because they know that every vote counts, then the CDE turnout could be substantially higher than for the election.
He didn't come across as his smooth urbane self on breakfast telly and this snap press conf just confirms his emotional need to get in front of the cameras to make his case.
I think it's a mistake. When your boss is upset, he's not thinking rationally - nor will it make him a good advocate. Far too much raw feeling on display - and when that's fear, we can all see it.
1. Private polls show that its Leave's to lose hence Dave making a Significant Announcement to beg for mercy
2. Private polls show that Remain are a few points ahead hence Dave making a Significant Announcement to beg for more people to help save him. "Don't do it for me, do it for little Georgie Boy"
I honestly don't understand the thinking behind this.
Like many they were expecting the Lib Dem incumbency to kick in
Yup.
Which could either be act of brilliance. Or a terrible misfire. Hard to know for sure.
I'm still a fan of the PM, even though he has pushed this to the absolute limit, he is still in my view a decent man. I really hope in his quieter moments, that he deeply regrets letting George Osborne set the agenda for this campaign. He really should have moved him straight after the GE but we are where we are. That punishment budget was just the last straw and deeply unedifying for a Chancellor, which after all is one of the Great Offices of State. Theresa May or Andrea Leadsom would be my choice, it would take the "machismo" out of the Treasury, which is sorely needed after Gordon Brown, Ed Balls and George Osborne.
D-E-S-P-E-R-A-T-I-O-N
The Commentariat thought Jo Fox would be good for Remain. The Commentariat have been continually wrong-footed by a campaign that should have been over weeks ago, according to them.
When VoteLeave gave Sky one of their own internal polls - it was obviously intended to show that they were talking common-ground and winning.
The headline numbers should be the same - or perhaps a teeny bit more accurate dependent on larger samples/same pollster methodologies.
Although I guess, technically, the street is government property.
However I commute to Cardiff, lots more Remain posters, but also a smattering of Leave. I'd say Cardiff goes remain, Newport goes Leave. Overall, I'd say the leavers in the Valleys are the more enthused about voting.
I assume it's simply news grid control. A Final Statement From the Prime Minister is going to lead the headlines, regardless of content. Insures against the Remain team screwing up in the debate.
We're a long way past that famous (and in my view rather wonderful) election eve exchange from 1945:
Excited journalist: "Mr Attlee! Have you one final message to the British people before they go to vote tomorrow?"
Attlee: "No."
Sunil: [to himself: thinking] "Earth and water"?
[He unsheathes and points his sword at TSE's throat]
TSE: Madman! You're a madman!
Sunil: Earth and water? You'll find plenty of both down there.[referring to the well behind TSE]
TSE: No man, LEAVER or REMAINER, no man threatens a lawyer!
Sunil: You bring the ashes and ruins of conquered economies to our city steps. You insult my farmers and fishermen. You threaten the UK with slavery and EU diktats! Oh, I've chosen my words carefully, Traitor Pig-Dog Lawyer! Perhaps you should have done the same!
TSE: This is blasphemy! This is madness!
Sunil: Madness...? This is BREXIT!
[He kicks poor TSE down the well]
Gipper>Gimp"Whisper it. What if the commentariat is wrong about 'the poster' ??
My feeling is that Leave will win this something like 53/47 and that the Conservative party is in very deep trouble.
Seriously, was no government resources involved in planning the use and arrangements outside number 10? Frankly I could not give a damn, but someone is having a hissy fit type of panic.
He said "the remorseless logic of a single state ultimately means that the British Army will be no more".
The army, by the way, is something like 80-90% pro-Leave.