@DavidL I don't think a Leave vote would be the end of days. It would be less important for the decision itself and more important for how the decision had been made.
It would be a terrible blow to the essential decency of this nation, a blow against openness to the outside world and a blow against any rational weighing of evidence. It would mean that xenophobic playing on public fears had been successful. It would mean that the confederacy of dunces tallied over 50% of the voting public. All that would be a terrible indictment of the British people.
I would be fearful for the future of the country, given the many entirely unnecessary risks that Britain would now be running, but more than that I would feel a deep sense of shame for the bad way in which my country had made a bad decision. I expect that one way or another Britain would make the best of a bad job if it voted to Leave, but it would be a bad job.
We vote the way we wish to. Do you really believe that it's somehow indecent to vote to Leave?
We are presumably allowed to have an opinion on the various options on offer, aren't we?
The Leave campaign has been based on lies (£350m, Turkey, etc) and fear (Breaking Point). And has allowed people to feel that disliking long, winding queues of refugees is ok, under the guise of wanting to leave the largest trading bloc on the planet, which consumes nearly half our exports.
There is certainly a debate to be had about immigration, but the country will have thrown the baby out with the bath water by voting to leave the EU under the guise of having that debate.
+1
Why anyone would want to put the country in the hands of a movement of which Boris, IDS and Gove are the moderate sensible wing is beyond me......
Because they also have Liam Fox as a moderating influence, and for gravitas and wisdom, they can go to Michael Howard and Nigel Lawson for advice.
@DavidL I don't think a Leave vote would be the end of days. It would be less important for the decision itself and more important for how the decision had been made.
It would be a terrible blow t be a bad job.
We vote the way we wish to. Do you really believe that it's somehow indecent to vote to Leave?
We are presumably allowed to have an opinion on the various options on offer, aren't we?
The Leave campaign has been based on lies (£e of having that debate.
Guess you should have suppressed it for 15 years then.
I'm presuming you mean shouldn't have.
No you're right, that'll serve us right. The general hysteria which I agree prevented a sensible discussion about immigration has now resulted in us lopping off our noses to show our faces just who is boss.
yes immigartion is simply a front for a range of discontentments roughly summed up as this society might work for you but it doesnt work for me. Its one of the reasons I think wheeling out experts or wealthy celebs doesnt work, people think fkem. Its sheer bloodimindedness of course but the nations in a surly mood and the politicos have read it wrong.
Personally i cant understand why cameron didnt take the offer of an outer and inner core, de facto its what we have got and 80% of brits would be happy with it. The odds are that Germany would lead the inner core and the UK the outer core - tutti contenti.
But the mans lost it and has lost touch with his own people.
*Anecdote Alert* This anecdote is meaningless but I feel left out. I saw the first posters of the campaign today. One in the window of a house then two stakeboards on public verges. All for Leave. I imagine my Borough will have one of the highest Leave votes in the country. More seriously there have been far more Union flags and St George's Crosses here than I've ever seen for the Birthday/Football period. I suspect subconsciously this is about the Referendum.
I was in the Coventry suburbs at the weekend and saw a lot more flags than normal, as well as lots of 'leave' posters.
This AMAZING Channel 4 News scoop about "push polling" which, in fact, they *didn't even witness*, is on a par with the famous Newsnight revelation that, after deep undercover investigation, they has discovered that some "Chinese prostitutes are working in hotel lobbies"
Is this the point at which the broadcast media drop any sense of impartiality, because Leave won't be able to raise a complaint until after the referendum - by which time it's all too late..?
A little dickie bird tells me the Survation poll has Northern Ireland backing Leave by 4:1.
So if you lop off the Northern Ireland result, GB is backing Remain by 3%
If I didnt know you better I would say you were trolling.
NI 80% leave?
That's what the Survation Northern Ireland subsample shows
Well if that is true then rest of england wales and NI needs just over 53% to overcome a 70% remain vote in Scotland and London.
53% of those that turn up that is. So based on that yougov turnout table 47-48% of england and wales and NI except london electorate
Game Over
It is not true, the Lucidtalk poll which polled only in NI and was not a crosstab has Remain on 57% in the province. ORB yesterday had Remain voters more certain to vote than Leavers
...Airplane wings are a very specialist skill and there are very few other locations for that expertise than the UK...
Depends on your definition of "very few". If you limit it to other manufacturers of Airbus components, then Spain could do it easily (they make the horizontal tailplanes, which are basically weeny wings). If you expand the circle to include the Eurofighter manufacturers, then Germany and Italy could do it because they make the wings for that.
If you expanded the circle further to include "people who build aircraft" then you're looking at USA, Sweden, Brazil, Russia, India, China...
It would be difficult to move wing manufacture outside the UK simply on grounds of cost-effectiveness, but the idea that the UK has a world monopoly on flexy thin loadbearing structures doesn't really, er, fly...
And if the pound were to devalue by 10%, as has been predicted, the British-made wings and RR engines would be considerably cheaper for Airbus than they are now.
Ditto all those nice cars which we export all over the world.
As with most leave economic forecast your thoughts are based on Europe being sensible. Europe does not have a great record of being sensible.
Tempers starting to fray here, emotions running high, insults coming thick and fast, no real surprise as the vote gets nearer. Whatever the result, one side will be elated, the other in the depths of despair - but - life will go on, whoever loses will get over it, and eventually normality will return.
Personally, I'll probably be better off with a Remain vote (I have a sizeable share portfolio), but I still believe Leave is the way to go - even if I lose out in the short term.
I wouldnt ever lose my rag over politics. I want Brexit but I expect Remain to win.
When Greece collapes under the weight of its debt pile and the EU starts ramping up all sorts of unpalatable policies because of its 'British mandate' (both will likely happen this year) we can have some fun with it and tell everyone life wouldve been better under Brexit ☺
A little dickie bird tells me the Survation poll has Northern Ireland backing Leave by 4:1.
So if you lop off the Northern Ireland result, GB is backing Remain by 3%
If I didnt know you better I would say you were trolling.
NI 80% leave?
That's what the Survation Northern Ireland subsample shows
Well if that is true then rest of england wales and NI needs just over 53% to overcome a 70% remain vote in Scotland and London.
53% of those that turn up that is. So based on that yougov turnout table 47-48% of england and wales and NI except london electorate
Game Over
It is not true, the Lucidtalk poll which polled only in NI and was not a crosstab has Remain on 57% in the province
If NI is 60/40 remain it is still less than 50% of the total E&W less London electorate that is needed once you factor in that yougov turnout factor graph.
@DavidL I don't think a Leave vote would be the end of days. It would be less important for the decision itself and more important for how the decision had been made.
It would be a terrible blow t be a bad job.
We vot
We £e of having that debate.
15 years then.
is boss.
yes immigartion is simply a front for a range of discontentments roughly summed up as this society might work for you but it doesnt work for me. Its one of the reasons I think wheeling out expertsor wealthy celebs doesnt work, people think fkem. Its sheer bloodimindedness of course but the nations in a surly mood and the politicos have read it wrong.
Personally i cant understand why cameron didnt take the offer of an outer and inner core, de facto its what we have got and 80% of brits would be happy with it. The odds are that Germany would lead the inner core and the UK the outer core - tutti contenti.
But the mans lost it and has lost touch with his own people.
I posted earlier. Not a huge fan of reposting (seems redundant, boring and immodest...), but I will as it speaks directly to your point. Plus it's not as if we don't all repeat ourselves at the drop of a hat on here...
I am thinking that Leave will win. As Montie said on DP today, you can fuss and bother all you like about this economic forecast or that institution's warning, but it is not real (oh it is likely to be, but not for the electorate, today).
We all know the electorate feels impotent, disenfranchised and wants to hit back at the establishment.
The only thing that they can vote for which they believe will be unambiguous and not subject to a 10 year gravity model of international trade, is to stop immigration. It is the only thing that both campaigns, Remain grudgingly, agree on.
And they won't be voting Leave because they are racist or xenophobic (most of them). They will be voting to take control. VLTC's constant use of the free movement take control mantra will be successful. It is irrelevant that they will find out subsequently that it will mean no such thing; even Gove acknowledged it will be 2020 before anything like a start can be made on anti-immigration measures, and of course they have failed miserably to date (for non-EU immigration). To say nothing of a Labour government (which will come at some point, and) which will open the doors wide to all kinds of immigrants.
I called Remain long ago at something like 60:40. But now I am sure that Leave will win.
And of course for the UK, for our economy, and for 98% of people who will have voted to leave the EU, it will be a tragedy.
LAST PRE EU REFERENDUM OPINION PANEL POLL - Now Running Our last pre EU Referendum NI-Wide Opinion Panel poll is currently 'live' - Would you like to take part (and join our Opinion Panel)? If so, click here: http://surveys.lucidtalk.co.uk/s/LTTrackerEURef-June2016/
This AMAZING Channel 4 News scoop about "push polling" which, in fact, they *didn't even witness*, is on a par with the famous Newsnight revelation that, after deep undercover investigation, they has discovered that some "Chinese prostitutes are working in hotel lobbies"
I doubt many leavers watch channel 4 news very often.
Forty one years ago I wasn’t able to vote in the first referendum as I was working in Paris for the OECD, monitoring and forecasting the UK and Irish economies. I had already encountered the Common Market’s deficiencies before we even joined, in a research project on tax harmonisation and lecturing on the Common Market’s agriculture and fishing policies.
Since then I have wanted us out, and that has become stronger with each new development of euro-madness, culminating in the currency union. Now it may come to pass. But these are the worst days. It’s the hope that kills you.
An interesting choice of dates Mr. Charles, not that I would agree with them.
The fourteenth century in the run up to the Black Death saw a huge expansion of wealth and the wool trade (the foundation of England's wealth) really getting into its stride as feudalism was ditched. Post Black death the GDP per capita, as we would call it now, increased even more (OK, there were some hiccups along the way as the ruling class tried to turn the clock back).
I'd be prepared to argue that despite the Wars of the Roses the English economy was, with the usual business cycles, making the England more prosperous right up until Henry VIII. It then picked up again when Elizabeth I got control and really didn't stop for the next few hundred years. Even then it only became relatively poorer in the late 19th century as Germany and America, unburdened with the costs of Empire*, overtook us.
Now, how much of that was down to free-trade is a moot point. England possibly invented mercantilism, or perhaps it copied it from places like Venice, but it certainly made it work to its own advantage. Just as China (and Germany) is doing today.
* Sorry I know that the EIC etc is a tender point for you.
Cost of Empire is fine - paid for the University of Westminster (although my cousin Q still grumbles that he would have rather inherited Leicestershire)
The move back to Leave in the final polls will just be the Coxgasm working it's self out of the numbers. As we were.
Do you quite realise that a defenceless woman was killed in the most brutal fashion? She spent her last moments of consciousness in sheer horror as she was repeatedly stabbed and kicked after she had been shot.
FWIW- I do not think this murder will change how people vote. How anyone could show contempt for her, her name, her family is quite beyond me.
Some figures to ponder.Assuming total registered voters is 46.5 million and that 27% are postal with an 80% turnout split 60:40 leave,then votes are 6.03 leave 4.02 remain.leave higher because of postal demographics and timing when opinion polls favoured leave.Assume 73% votes on polling day with 70% turnout split 53 remain 47 leave.gives 12.59 m remain and 11.17 leave.overall total leave 17.2 remain 16.6. One question opinion polls include those who have already voted by pat worth 60;40 split This means that for polling day voting you have to adjust polls by removing postal votes.
@DavidL I don't think a Leave vote would be the end of days. It would be less important for the decision itself and more important for how the decision had been made.
It would be a terrible blow t be a bad job.
We vot
We £e of having that debate.
15 years then.
is boss.
yes immigartion is simply a front for a e - tutti contenti.
But the mans lost it and has lost touch with his own people.
I posted earlier. Not a huge fan of reposting (seems redundant, boring and immodest...), but I will as it speaks directly to your point. Plus it's not as if we don't all repeat ourselves at the drop of a hat on here...
I am thinking that Leave will win. As Montie said on DP today, you can fuss and bother all you like about this economic forecast or that institution's warning, but it is not real (oh it is likely to be, but not for the electorate, today).
We all know the electorate feels impotent, disenfranchised and wants to hit back at the establishment.
The only thing that they can vote for which they believe will be unambiguous and not subject to a 10 year gravity mod (which will come at some point, and) which will open the doors wide to all kinds of immigrants.
I called Remain long ago at something like 60:40. But now I am sure that Leave will win.
And of course for the UK, for our economy, and for 98% of people who will have voted to leave the EU, it will be a tragedy.
I still think Remain will scrape it, I even occasionally find myself wobbling. But we all know with the EU and british establisment the only way is to kick them in the balls, without it its business as usual and they'll go on lining their pockets at everyone elses expense and forget they have an obligation to the people who put them there.
A little dickie bird tells me the Survation poll has Northern Ireland backing Leave by 4:1.
So if you lop off the Northern Ireland result, GB is backing Remain by 3%
If I didnt know you better I would say you were trolling.
NI 80% leave?
That's what the Survation Northern Ireland subsample shows
Well if that is true then rest of england wales and NI needs just over 53% to overcome a 70% remain vote in Scotland and London.
53% of those that turn up that is. So based on that yougov turnout table 47-48% of england and wales and NI except london electorate
Game Over
It is not true, the Lucidtalk poll which polled only in NI and was not a crosstab has Remain on 57% in the province
If NI is 60/40 remain it is still less than 50% of the total E&W less London electorate that is needed once you factor in that yougov turnout factor graph.
Bear in mind Scotland may have higher turnout than the UK as whole and ORB has more Remainers turning out than Leavers
Reading through this thread 90% of people think Leave will win, yet all bookmakers have leave at 3/1. Very very few people on here predicted a tory majority at the GE hence the bookies were in line with peoples thoughts on here i.e wrong. On the referendum they think massively different (and I am sure they read this site). I am totally lost by it all.
@MarkKleinmanSky: Pro-EU business letter signed by best part of 1000 companies (including scores of FTSE-100 bosses) to be published in tomorrow's Times.
This guy can tell them they are all wrong
@tnewtondunn: Aides urge PM to make Michael Gove Deputy PM on Friday if Remain wins #EUref as immediate olive branch to Leavers; https://t.co/BnW0KjNZjI
LAST PRE EU REFERENDUM OPINION PANEL POLL - Now Running Our last pre EU Referendum NI-Wide Opinion Panel poll is currently 'live' - Would you like to take part (and join our Opinion Panel)? If so, click here: http://surveys.lucidtalk.co.uk/s/LTTrackerEURef-June2016/
I note you start with "If the UK prospers". That is a big if.
Really??
I would suggest that history is overwhelmingly against you.
When, in the last 10 centuries of freedom and independence has England/Britain NOT prospered, relatively?
The only time she had to survive as a free trading nation - between 1945 and 1975. Before then she prospered down the barrel of a gun, since 1975 she's been in the EU. Her only period trying to fend for herself, did not go very well.
Of course, its much more complex than that but it's one answer to the question.
And if the pound were to devalue by 10%, as has been predicted, the British-made wings and RR engines would be considerably cheaper for Airbus than they are now. Ditto all those nice cars which we export all over the world.
...and our workers would be paid in a devalued currency.
@MarkKleinmanSky: Pro-EU business letter signed by best part of 1000 companies (including scores of FTSE-100 bosses) to be published in tomorrow's Times.
This guy can tell them they are all wrong
@tnewtondunn: Aides urge PM to make Michael Gove Deputy PM on Friday if Remain wins #EUref as immediate olive branch to Leavers; https://t.co/BnW0KjNZjI
Competition....please finish this sentence I think Gove being made Deputy PM if remain win is about as likely as...........?
And if the pound were to devalue by 10%, as has been predicted, the British-made wings and RR engines would be considerably cheaper for Airbus than they are now. Ditto all those nice cars which we export all over the world.
...and our workers would be paid in a devalued currency.
As opposed to the current situation where to finance the fact we are buying £250m a day from abroad in excess of the value of the things we produce and sell abroad, we are selling off and mortgaging our country a little bit at a time - something which creates a snowball effect since the new foreign owners expect a yield on their share, which further counts against our deficit as we send money abroad in exchange for nothing at all.
When all is said and done, when people feel they have nothing to lose by voting Leave, they will. Despite things being good in this country, a lot of people don't feel optimistic about the future and their children's future. There's no optimism about the remain campaign, it's purely fear, and if you are scared already, fear doesn't work.
Fear worked in Scotland
Did it? 30 point lead down to a 10 point lead. Another month worth of fear and it would have been a tie.
When all is said and done, when people feel they have nothing to lose by voting Leave, they will. Despite things being good in this country, a lot of people don't feel optimistic about the future and their children's future. There's no optimism about the remain campaign, it's purely fear, and if you are scared already, fear doesn't work.
Fear worked in Scotland
Did it? 30 point lead down to a 10 point lead. Another month worth of fear and it would have been a tie.
It worked on the pensioners, which was where it was aimed.
BBC Debate: Boris and Sadiq both getting a warm reception.
@TSE - yup, hardly a surprise. I thought that might happen earlier today.
It's clear Remain have been very busy with the celeb endorsements. I expect Attenborough as well soon.
Optics optics optics. Attenborough = good and nice. EU = good and nice. He's even a bit sciencey isn't he? Bonus points for being sciencey. Not like those nasty Faragites. You don't want to be a nasty Faragite do you?
The absolute infantilising of the people they're talking [down] to is downright creepy.
When all is said and done, when people feel they have nothing to lose by voting Leave, they will. Despite things being good in this country, a lot of people don't feel optimistic about the future and their children's future. There's no optimism about the remain campaign, it's purely fear, and if you are scared already, fear doesn't work.
Fear worked in Scotland
Or was it climbing down and enabling Better Togetherers to vote 'in' with a clear conscience knowing Scotland was to get more powers?
@MarkKleinmanSky: Pro-EU business letter signed by best part of 1000 companies (including scores of FTSE-100 bosses) to be published in tomorrow's Times.
This guy can tell them they are all wrong
@tnewtondunn: Aides urge PM to make Michael Gove Deputy PM on Friday if Remain wins #EUref as immediate olive branch to Leavers; https://t.co/BnW0KjNZjI
Competition....please finish this sentence I think Gove being made Deputy PM if remain win is about as likely as...........?
Comments
Because they also have Liam Fox as a moderating influence, and for gravitas and wisdom, they can go to Michael Howard and Nigel Lawson for advice.
https://twitter.com/SuzanneEvans1/status/745322978460766208
Personally i cant understand why cameron didnt take the offer of an outer and inner core, de facto its what we have got and 80% of brits would be happy with it. The odds are that Germany would lead the inner core and the UK the outer core - tutti contenti.
But the mans lost it and has lost touch with his own people.
When Greece collapes under the weight of its debt pile and the EU starts ramping up all sorts of unpalatable policies because of its 'British mandate' (both will likely happen this year) we can have some fun with it and tell everyone life wouldve been better under Brexit ☺
I am thinking that Leave will win. As Montie said on DP today, you can fuss and bother all you like about this economic forecast or that institution's warning, but it is not real (oh it is likely to be, but not for the electorate, today).
We all know the electorate feels impotent, disenfranchised and wants to hit back at the establishment.
The only thing that they can vote for which they believe will be unambiguous and not subject to a 10 year gravity model of international trade, is to stop immigration. It is the only thing that both campaigns, Remain grudgingly, agree on.
And they won't be voting Leave because they are racist or xenophobic (most of them). They will be voting to take control. VLTC's constant use of the free movement take control mantra will be successful. It is irrelevant that they will find out subsequently that it will mean no such thing; even Gove acknowledged it will be 2020 before anything like a start can be made on anti-immigration measures, and of course they have failed miserably to date (for non-EU immigration). To say nothing of a Labour government (which will come at some point, and) which will open the doors wide to all kinds of immigrants.
I called Remain long ago at something like 60:40. But now I am sure that Leave will win.
And of course for the UK, for our economy, and for 98% of people who will have voted to leave the EU, it will be a tragedy.
@LucidTalk
16 June at 02:12
LAST PRE EU REFERENDUM OPINION PANEL POLL - Now Running
Our last pre EU Referendum NI-Wide Opinion Panel poll is currently 'live' - Would you like to take part (and join our Opinion Panel)? If so, click here: http://surveys.lucidtalk.co.uk/s/LTTrackerEURef-June2016/
Since then I have wanted us out, and that has become stronger with each new development of euro-madness, culminating in the currency union. Now it may come to pass. But these are the worst days. It’s the hope that kills you.
NEW THREAD NEW THREAD
FWIW- I do not think this murder will change how people vote. How anyone could show contempt for her, her name, her family is quite beyond me.
This guy can tell them they are all wrong
@tnewtondunn: Aides urge PM to make Michael Gove Deputy PM on Friday if Remain wins #EUref as immediate olive branch to Leavers; https://t.co/BnW0KjNZjI
https://www.danskebank.co.uk/en-gb/About-the-bank/Bank-in-brief/Economic-Research/Pages/NI-EU-Opinion-Poll.aspx
I think Gove being made Deputy PM if remain win is about as likely as...........?
BBC Debate: Boris and Sadiq both getting a warm reception.
The absolute infantilising of the people they're talking [down] to is downright creepy.