I don't care which side he is from he should be dumped by his voters.
Indeed, he's going to get turfed out of the Tory Party PDQ, I hope.
I thought the Tories had introduced social media training for councillors after the last idiot had to resign for posting while drunk? It really should be compulsory, as should training on how to deal with journalists of the likes of Guido rather than the local rag.
My big surprise of the campaign is how much I have in common with the Labour Leave crowd. Heard Kelvin Hopkins (Luton N MP) speak and he was fantastic. Like Hurst Lama this is the most favourable I have ever felt to Labour.
Kelvin is very good value - in the Corbyn mould of unflinching left-wing principle combined with unremitting politeness and personal modesty. I remember once asking for his support for a PLP election as I knew him well. He said quietly that he was only nominating critics of Tony's Iraq policies, so he would have to decline, but he did it so nicely that I felt I'd had a pleasant conversation rather than a rejection. I've told various people that I'd like to see him in the Shadow Cabinet.
Personally I think that the climate is more favourable to this sort of civil leftism (as opposed to clever Blairite triangulation or Scargillite shouting) than it has been for a long time. People want an alternative but not a bunch of ranters.
Spoke to a senior Remain source in Southampton today - they are quietly confident there, but know nothing of what's happening elsewhere. Another source says the reports from postal votes in general look surprisingly positive. But that contradicts another post downthread, so who knows, really?
Looking at the 3 that are presenting the REMAIN case tonight, how motivated are 2 of them to win? For Frances O'Grady and Sadiq Khan they almost have no skin in the game on the outcome of the referendum. If we LEAVE, Cameron and Osborne are out and their main opponent can watch as they are removed/sacked. LEAVE would be quite a nice result from Labour. Sadiq has his new job to focus on post referendum. Just like the ERM, where the Labour party agreed with the policy and then enjoyed the fruits from its failure.
Ruth of course is the only one trying to get a win for Dave. But she will do that with her companions attacking the Conservatives about the impact of austerity, sucking it up like Amber did.
London will be very exposed when we Leave and with Boris and Mike in charge in Downing Street the possibility of more anti-union legislation is very real. So I reckon both have plenty to play for.
I know nothing about Frances O'Grady so can give no opinion on how she will perform, Sadiq is very managerial in tone and will certainly not be inspirational. But then I don't think that any of the Leavers are like that either, unless Boris gets going. Davison will have the most experience of performing in front of a very noisy, partisan crowd - it will be interesting to see how it affects them all. When it gets really noisy, it may get harder to stick to the lines and tactics agreed pre-game.
I know nothing much about Frances – I guess having a TUC boss on board is strategically useful.
She's normally a safe pair of hands in the media. This interview on the EU with Owen Jones was posted yesterday.
Looking at the 3 that are presenting the REMAIN case tonight, how motivated are 2 of them to win? For Frances O'Grady and Sadiq Khan they almost have no skin in the game on the outcome of the referendum. If we LEAVE, Cameron and Osborne are out and their main opponent can watch as they are removed/sacked. LEAVE would be quite a nice result from Labour. Sadiq has his new job to focus on post referendum. Just like the ERM, where the Labour party agreed with the policy and then enjoyed the fruits from its failure.
Ruth of course is the only one trying to get a win for Dave. But she will do that with her companions attacking the Conservatives about the impact of austerity, sucking it up like Amber did.
Frances O'Grady is probably realistic enough to know that if we Brexit, there is no socialist utopia coming instead, so for the trade unions they really do need remain to win - life for trade unions will get worse not better if we brexit.
Sadiq is personally fine either way so no real skin in the game - but he's from the blairite/brownite wing of the party no? For them, Pro-European is as important to them as leaving is for kippers, so it will be a matter of principle.
I shared a house in south London many years ago. In the dead of night, we were woken by the local cops, asking if we recognised this TV. Yes, it was ours, as a gap in the front room attested. A patrol car had come round a corner to find two youth carrying it across the road, one at each end. Our neighbours from across the road. Banged to rights.
Except....
They both got charged with burglary. Not conspiracy, not receiving stolen goods. Just burglary. That requires proof that the person was in the property. Each said they had not been in the house, the other had been in the house and taken it, whilst they were just in the road, waiting.
Result? They both got off...
The Mail (which I used to read for some reason) once had a detective series where this wheeze was used to get two suspects off a murder charge - each confessed at each other's trials. The series stopped abruptly and I wondered if the editor had decided it wasn't in the public interest.
My favourite story of this ilk is from a friend in a rough bit of Nottingham, whose door burst open one night, smashed down by a hoodlum. "What do you think you're doing?" asked my friend indignantly. "Uh, sorry mate, wrong door", said the hoodlum apologetically. He scratched his head for a moment, then ran out and...broke down the next door.
I was once sleeping in my car waiting for first light on a twitch when a guy tried to break in. He absolutely cacked himself when I sat up from the rolled back seat!
A Florida candidate for Congress has launched a contest on his Facebook campaign page to give away an AR-15 semi-automatic rifle on Independence Day.
Greg Evers announced the giveaway just a week after a gunman killed 49 people at a gay nightclub in Orlando using a semi-automatic rifle.
Writing on his Facebook page, Mr Evers said: "With terrorism incidents on the rise, both at home and abroad, protecting our constitutional rights has never been more important.
"With all that's happening in the world today, I've never felt stronger about the importance of the second amendment in protecting our homeland than I do now."
Short sterling in the short term if you must, but I reckon in the long term it will be the pound's strength we will need to worry about if we Brexit
Offshore of a crumbling European Union, we will be a safe haven currency.
Roger Bootle was highlighting the risk of being strapped to a trade bloc that is strapped to the eurozone in the Telegraph the other day.
The economic risks of staying in are huge for me. Massive. The euro project is building up huge imbalances between South and Northern Europe. The integration needed to make it work just isn;t supported by the countries involved.
It really isn't any more, you know. All of the PIIGS - Ireland, Spain, Italy, Portugal, Greece - run currnt account surpluses now.
The massive imbalances were run up between 2004 and 2008, at a time when no-one was talking about them. Now we all talk about them, even though they have essentially disappeared.
Looking at the 3 that are presenting the REMAIN case tonight, how motivated are 2 of them to win? For Frances O'Grady and Sadiq Khan they almost have no skin in the game on the outcome of the referendum. If we LEAVE, Cameron and Osborne are out and their main opponent can watch as they are removed/sacked. LEAVE would be quite a nice result from Labour. Sadiq has his new job to focus on post referendum. Just like the ERM, where the Labour party agreed with the policy and then enjoyed the fruits from its failure.
Ruth of course is the only one trying to get a win for Dave. But she will do that with her companions attacking the Conservatives about the impact of austerity, sucking it up like Amber did.
London will be very exposed when we Leave and with Boris and Mike in charge in Downing Street the possibility of more anti-union legislation is very real. So I reckon both have plenty to play for.
I know nothing about Frances O'Grady so can give no opinion on how she will perform, Sadiq is very managerial in tone and will certainly not be inspirational. But then I don't think that any of the Leavers are like that either, unless Boris gets going. Davison will have the most experience of performing in front of a very noisy, partisan crowd - it will be interesting to see how it affects them all. When it gets really noisy, it may get harder to stick to the lines and tactics agreed pre-game.
Short sterling in the short term if you must, but I reckon in the long term it will be the pound's strength we will need to worry about if we Brexit
Offshore of a crumbling European Union, we will be a safe haven currency.
Roger Bootle was highlighting the risk of being strapped to a trade bloc that is strapped to the eurozone in the Telegraph the other day.
The economic risks of staying in are huge for me. Massive. The euro project is building up huge imbalances between South and Northern Europe. The integration needed to make it work just isn;t supported by the countries involved.
It really isn't any more, you know. All of the PIIGS - Ireland, Spain, Italy, Portugal, Greece - run currnt account surpluses now.
The massive imbalances were run up between 2004 and 2008, at a time when no-one was talking about them. Now we all talk about them, even though they have essentially disappeared.
Do you believe that the need for rapid fiscal integration in the Eurozone is a red herring?
My big surprise of the campaign is how much I have in common with the Labour Leave crowd. Heard Kelvin Hopkins (Luton N MP) speak and he was fantastic. Like Hurst Lama this is the most favourable I have ever felt to Labour.
Steve Parish is the Crystal Palace chairman. As a CPFC season ticket holder, I can safely say the 'We're Better Off in Europe' sentiment is not shared by every fan either ;-)
'My currency trader has just sent out a circular to say the markets are going to go bonkers on Friday- expect a 10-15% fall on Brexit, but remain impact is unknown. Doesn't know if it's price in already or what.'
He doesn't seem to know much,thought about getting a decent trader ?
It was a round robin, sent I guess to many clients.
Anyone, in pb land. If we go remain, what will be the impact on sterling?
Down 8-10% on Brexit (possibly more intraday with a bounce back). Make it around $1.30 as a floor. Probably back north of $1.40 within a month (possibly shorter)
May be a slight bounce on Remain, but not much. Doubt it will have sustained hold above $1.50 although it may test that level.
Short sterling in the short term if you must, but I reckon in the long term it will be the pound's strength we will need to worry about if we Brexit
Offshore of a crumbling European Union, we will be a safe haven currency.
Roger Bootle was highlighting the risk of being strapped to a trade bloc that is strapped to the eurozone in the Telegraph the other day.
The economic risks of staying in are huge for me. Massive. The euro project is building up huge imbalances between South and Northern Europe. The integration needed to make it work just isn;t supported by the countries involved.
It really isn't any more, you know. All of the PIIGS - Ireland, Spain, Italy, Portugal, Greece - run currnt account surpluses now.
The massive imbalances were run up between 2004 and 2008, at a time when no-one was talking about them. Now we all talk about them, even though they have essentially disappeared.
Do you believe that the need for rapid fiscal integration in the Eurozone is a red herring?
The Eurozone needs to do a couple of things:
1. It needs to complete a banking union, with a Eurozone wide deposit insurance scheme.
2. It needs to implement a (limited) central Eurozone bond market, which has joint and several liability among the EZ countries for debts covering (say) the first 60% of GDP. Anything issued in excess of the 60% mark would have no central backing.
Both those things would be easier with us not in the EU.
Guess it kind of ruins his "The man behind the only poll that was right" brand.
Well, we all know the exit poll is different from an opinion poll. I don't think he made up the stat that the total absolute error was consistent with other polls?
I was planning on taking a day off on Friday to facilitate an all-nighter. However, I now have to go to Middlesbrough on Friday. Never a good time to go there of course, but timing especially poor!
The point here is not whether the footie clubs have been taken in vain, it is, as Steve Parish says, that the decision is for the individual, and it is cringeingly patronising to 'football fans' to suggest that what their clubs (or indeed Beckham) think of the EU will guide their choice.
As I said earlier, Remain appear to be treating the British public as the bovine herd they believe them to be.
Mr. D, one trembles at the thought that the BBC budget may have been spent on demented CGI nonsense.
What I really enjoyed for the coverage of the primaries on the New York Times website (I think) was a plot showing vote share as a function of time, and you could see how each candidate fared as the different precincts reported. There was also a projection curve showing the predicted final tally. That's what a numbers geek like me wants to see.
'My currency trader has just sent out a circular to say the markets are going to go bonkers on Friday- expect a 10-15% fall on Brexit, but remain impact is unknown. Doesn't know if it's price in already or what.'
He doesn't seem to know much,thought about getting a decent trader ?
It was a round robin, sent I guess to many clients.
Anyone, in pb land. If we go remain, what will be the impact on sterling?
Down 8-10% on Brexit (possibly more intraday with a bounce back). Make it around $1.30 as a floor. Probably back north of $1.40 within a month (possibly shorter)
May be a slight bounce on Remain, but not much. Doubt it will have sustained hold above $1.50 although it may test that level.
All quotes in cable.
I am not a currency trader. Do your own research.
People seem to keep forgetting that even if the vote was 100%-0 Leave then on 24th June we would still be in the EU, trading with the EU on the same terms as on the 23rd and subject to the same rules, regulations and membership fees.
Of course that will NOT apply on the 25th as the EU starts unrolling its held-up legislative and financial plans for the future.
Both those things would be easier with us not in the EU.
A central eurozone bond market. The Southern states getting hold of Germany's credit card. Should be fun.
The whole point would be that you could only issue Eurobonds (to give them a name) up to 60% of GDP. Anything about that would Spanish Government Bonds, or whatever.
As EMU evolves towards Economic, Financial and Fiscal Union, its external representation should be increasingly unified... in the international financial institutions, the EU and the euro area are still not represented as one. This fragmented voice means the EU is punching below its political and economic weight...
...a genuine Fiscal Union will require more joint decision-making on fiscal policy. This would not mean centralisation of all aspects of revenue and expenditure policy. Euro area Member States would continue to decide on taxation and the allocation of budgetary expenditures according to national preferences and political choices. However, as the euro area evolves towards a genuine EMU, some decisions will increasingly need to be made collectively while ensuring democratic accountability and legitimacy.
Both those things would be easier with us not in the EU.
A central eurozone bond market. The Southern states getting hold of Germany's credit card. Should be fun.
The whole point would be that you could only issue Eurobonds (to give them a name) up to 60% of GDP. Anything about that would Spanish Government Bonds, or whatever.
Mr. Sandpit, I hope this time they have the rather good Sophie Raworth actually presenting in the studio rather than exiled to the exterior with a map of Britain specially designed to patronise an audience interested enough in politics to be watching it at 3am.
Both those things would be easier with us not in the EU.
A central eurozone bond market. The Southern states getting hold of Germany's credit card. Should be fun.
The whole point would be that you could only issue Eurobonds (to give them a name) up to 60% of GDP. Anything about that would Spanish Government Bonds, or whatever.
Would the Eurobonds be pari passu or have first charge status in the event of default ?
Both those things would be easier with us not in the EU.
A central eurozone bond market. The Southern states getting hold of Germany's credit card. Should be fun.
The whole point would be that you could only issue Eurobonds (to give them a name) up to 60% of GDP. Anything about that would Spanish Government Bonds, or whatever.
I can't help feeling that after being compared to Neville Chamberlain on BBC1 - plus all the other brickbats from rowdy voters, his confidence has been seriously bruised. He didn't come across as his smooth urbane self on breakfast telly and this snap press conf just confirms his emotional need to get in front of the cameras to make his case. I think it's a mistake. When your boss is upset, he's not thinking rationally - nor will it make him a good advocate. Far too much raw feeling on display - and when that's fear, we can all see it.
Agreed. Not thinking clearly. 4 in 5 of voters do not agree with the statement that they trust you. A mixture of distrust and indifference. Therefore you go and make yourself the main spokesman yet again when the polling data says it should be someone that they have more trust in and someone appealing to Labour working class people.... Number 10 should have asked a number 10 cleaner to come out and make the speech - it would have been better received.
It's such a core personal thing - if you feel attacked, hurt, called a liar - it's natural to want to *set the record straight*.
Or called a racist, a neanderthal knuckle-dragger, a Little Englander. To have your intelligence insulted. It's natural to want to set the record straight, Prime Minister....
People keep posting smug, patronising Remain stuff on my Facebook, all with an undertone of "Remain people are better than Leave, morally, intellectually, generally..."
Seems they can't see that while it may reinforce already committed Remainers, it really REALLY pisses undecideds off.
One post actually started with this actual quote:
"I mean, obviously, vote Remain, but just in case, have a read of this"...
With a link to some childish thing comparing which celebs back which side, and sneering at the Leavers. It was clearly implied that "everyone" agreed with its sentiment, no other sane conclusion was possible.
Fascinating to see these people completely oblivious to the damage they are doing to their own cause as they reinforce each others' views.
'My currency trader has just sent out a circular to say the markets are going to go bonkers on Friday- expect a 10-15% fall on Brexit, but remain impact is unknown. Doesn't know if it's price in already or what.'
He doesn't seem to know much,thought about getting a decent trader ?
It was a round robin, sent I guess to many clients.
Anyone, in pb land. If we go remain, what will be the impact on sterling?
Down 8-10% on Brexit (possibly more intraday with a bounce back). Make it around $1.30 as a floor. Probably back north of $1.40 within a month (possibly shorter)
May be a slight bounce on Remain, but not much. Doubt it will have sustained hold above $1.50 although it may test that level.
All quotes in cable.
I am not a currency trader. Do your own research.
People seem to keep forgetting that even if the vote was 100%-0 Leave then on 24th June we would still be in the EU, trading with the EU on the same terms as on the 23rd and subject to the same rules, regulations and membership fees.
Of course that will NOT apply on the 25th as the EU starts unrolling its held-up legislative and financial plans for the future.
I doubt it would be back up to $1.40 within a month, although that in a way is an artificially low value due to the referendum. Most of the evidence is that Brexit would have a negative effect on the economy, there would be big question marks about the future of the city and its earnings. My guess would be $1.25 as a low and then back up to $1.30-$1.35 in the short term. If we weren't having the referendum I presume we'd be about $1.50.
Both those things would be easier with us not in the EU.
A central eurozone bond market. The Southern states getting hold of Germany's credit card. Should be fun.
The whole point would be that you could only issue Eurobonds (to give them a name) up to 60% of GDP. Anything about that would Spanish Government Bonds, or whatever.
Both those things would be easier with us not in the EU.
A central eurozone bond market. The Southern states getting hold of Germany's credit card. Should be fun.
The whole point would be that you could only issue Eurobonds (to give them a name) up to 60% of GDP. Anything about that would Spanish Government Bonds, or whatever.
Would the Eurobonds be pari passu or have first charge status in the event of default ?
Given they are being guaranteed at a supranational level, it's a very good question. It would also be interesting to know how cross default provisions would work.
If Eurobonds covered the first 60% of GDP and had corresponding priority, the yield curve would be extraordinary. The German Gov't I suspect would earn a fortune from "borrowing" !
'Pretty much where I am, except I always thought Leave would win because this is a referendum on immigration and most voters want a lot less of it.
That said, given that there is going to be a very heavy financial and economic hangover after we vote Leave - for which Boris has promised to say sorry, of course - I am not at all certain we actually will. '
At least you will be able to say you called the outcome of the referendum correctly.
Annoyingly, it looks like we may get a turnout of 65%+. That sends my £I00 on Leave winning with a sub-65% turnout down the swanny. I do have a £50 hedge on Leave wining on a turnout of over 65%, but it will bring my overall winnings down into three figures.
Mr. Sandpit, I hope this time they have the rather good Sophie Raworth actually presenting in the studio rather than exiled to the exterior with a map of Britain specially designed to patronise an audience interested enough in politics to be watching it at 3am.
Yes, they do seem to regularly misjudge the audience for these programs. While they may have a general cross sectional audience up until about 1am, those watching all night are going to be either involved in the election in some way or be politics geeks interested in statistics rather than dodgy graphics.
If Eurobonds covered the first 60% of GDP and had corresponding priority, the yield curve would be extraordinary. The German Gov't I suspect would earn a fortune from "borrowing" !
The whole point would be to add a market based incentive to get debt down to 60% of GDP, because debt above that level would be quite expensive.
The other clever part about the proposal is that most countries would only have to issue Eurobonds for the next five years or so.
If Eurobonds covered the first 60% of GDP and had corresponding priority, the yield curve would be extraordinary. The German Gov't I suspect would earn a fortune from "borrowing" !
The whole point would be to add a market based incentive to get debt down to 60% of GDP, because debt above that level would be quite expensive.
The other clever part about the proposal is that most countries would only have to issue Eurobonds for the next five years or so.
I think it's a very good solution - would the UK be part of this or is it Eurozone only ?
Both those things would be easier with us not in the EU.
A central eurozone bond market. The Southern states getting hold of Germany's credit card. Should be fun.
The whole point would be that you could only issue Eurobonds (to give them a name) up to 60% of GDP. Anything about that would Spanish Government Bonds, or whatever.
Would the Eurobonds be pari passu or have first charge status in the event of default ?
Given they are being guaranteed at a supranational level, it's a very good question. It would also be interesting to know how cross default provisions would work.
Surely they would have to be issued centrally, with provision for repayment from the EU budget? These things would be much easier if all EU countries used the Euro.
If Eurobonds covered the first 60% of GDP and had corresponding priority, the yield curve would be extraordinary. The German Gov't I suspect would earn a fortune from "borrowing" !
The whole point would be to add a market based incentive to get debt down to 60% of GDP, because debt above that level would be quite expensive.
The other clever part about the proposal is that most countries would only have to issue Eurobonds for the next five years or so.
I think it's a very good solution - would the UK be part of this or is it Eurozone only ?
Eurozone only.
To be honest, I think the problems of the Eurozone would be much easier to solve if the EU and the Eurozone were the same. (And I'm not suggesting joining the Euro )
Both those things would be easier with us not in the EU.
A central eurozone bond market. The Southern states getting hold of Germany's credit card. Should be fun.
The whole point would be that you could only issue Eurobonds (to give them a name) up to 60% of GDP. Anything about that would Spanish Government Bonds, or whatever.
Would the Eurobonds be pari passu or have first charge status in the event of default ?
Given they are being guaranteed at a supranational level, it's a very good question. It would also be interesting to know how cross default provisions would work.
Surely they would have to be issued centrally, with provision for repayment from the EU budget? These things would be much easier if all EU countries used the Euro.
Not all, you would have French government bonds that were issued with the Eurobond stamp, and those that were not. It's not a gazillion miles different from when the US government chose to guarantee certain Mexican government bonds.
If Eurobonds covered the first 60% of GDP and had corresponding priority, the yield curve would be extraordinary. The German Gov't I suspect would earn a fortune from "borrowing" !
The whole point would be to add a market based incentive to get debt down to 60% of GDP, because debt above that level would be quite expensive.
The other clever part about the proposal is that most countries would only have to issue Eurobonds for the next five years or so.
What incentive would there be to get debt below 60%?
In 2001 French debt to GDP was 56.9%, German debt to GDP was 59.1% while the UK was as low as 37.3% - how would that work with a Eurobond? How do you go below 60% if it is communal above that threshold?
A friend of mine has said that he was on the fence till he learned of the EU directives on vaping. A fellow traveller for Hertsmere !
I think there are two really interesting asymmetric choices going on here.
On the one hand Leave have the advantage that they can use almost any issue where people are angry/fed up to support their cause ('wipe the smile off their faces'), resulting in a fairly chaotic alliance of the unhappy. On the other hand Remain have managed to establish a 'proof' threshold that lies firmly in their favour - it is up to Leave to prove that things would not be worse after Brexit (rather than better under remain).
I'm fascinated to see how these two unbalanced sets of arguments are going to be reconciled, whichever way the vote goes on Thursday.
If Eurobonds covered the first 60% of GDP and had corresponding priority, the yield curve would be extraordinary. The German Gov't I suspect would earn a fortune from "borrowing" !
The whole point would be to add a market based incentive to get debt down to 60% of GDP, because debt above that level would be quite expensive.
The other clever part about the proposal is that most countries would only have to issue Eurobonds for the next five years or so.
I think it's a very good solution - would the UK be part of this or is it Eurozone only ?
Eurozone only.
To be honest, I think the problems of the Eurozone would be much easier to solve if the EU and the Eurozone were the same. (And I'm not suggesting joining the Euro )
Have I got this right:
Country A, let's say Spain, can issue Eurobonds up to the value of 60% of its own GDP. These Eurobonds would have have a degree of comfort from other members of the Eurozone. SPain should be able to borrow more cheaply than before; but after 60% it would need to issue Spanish bonds, which now rank less well than the Eurobonds, and are effectively some sort of mezzanine finance and are more expensive.
Why would anyone give up the Eurobond after five years?
If the objective of the British electorate was to shit-the-pants of the EU, and shake the U.K. Government to its complacent core, whilst delivering the narrowest possible Remain vote, so far, it looks like they are succeeding.
Mr. D, one trembles at the thought that the BBC budget may have been spent on demented CGI nonsense.
What I really enjoyed for the coverage of the primaries on the New York Times website (I think) was a plot showing vote share as a function of time, and you could see how each candidate fared as the different precincts reported. There was also a projection curve showing the predicted final tally. That's what a numbers geek like me wants to see.
That's how all live polling reporting should work. Take, for example, the London mayoral poll. It was clear from about 11am Sadiq was going to win by a mile, from the rolling numbers, yet we were treated with reams of drivel from the networks.
If Eurobonds covered the first 60% of GDP and had corresponding priority, the yield curve would be extraordinary. The German Gov't I suspect would earn a fortune from "borrowing" !
The whole point would be to add a market based incentive to get debt down to 60% of GDP, because debt above that level would be quite expensive.
The other clever part about the proposal is that most countries would only have to issue Eurobonds for the next five years or so.
What incentive would there be to get debt below 60%?
In 2001 French debt to GDP was 56.9%, German debt to GDP was 59.1% while the UK was as low as 37.3% - how would that work with a Eurobond? How do you go below 60% if it is communal above that threshold?
It's communal BELOW the 60% threshold. You get to get debts equivalent to 60% of GDP guaranteed by your peers.
That debt would therefore be seen as very safe, while debts in excess of the 60% would be seen as very risky.
Mr. Sandpit, I hope this time they have the rather good Sophie Raworth actually presenting in the studio rather than exiled to the exterior with a map of Britain specially designed to patronise an audience interested enough in politics to be watching it at 3am.
Yes, they do seem to regularly misjudge the audience for these programs. While they may have a general cross sectional audience up until about 1am, those watching all night are going to be either involved in the election in some way or be politics geeks interested in statistics rather than dodgy graphics.
I particularly hated the paving stones to No 10 last year. What's wrong with a good old-fashioned list?
If Eurobonds covered the first 60% of GDP and had corresponding priority, the yield curve would be extraordinary. The German Gov't I suspect would earn a fortune from "borrowing" !
The whole point would be to add a market based incentive to get debt down to 60% of GDP, because debt above that level would be quite expensive.
The other clever part about the proposal is that most countries would only have to issue Eurobonds for the next five years or so.
What incentive would there be to get debt below 60%?
In 2001 French debt to GDP was 56.9%, German debt to GDP was 59.1% while the UK was as low as 37.3% - how would that work with a Eurobond? How do you go below 60% if it is communal above that threshold?
It's communal BELOW the 60% threshold. You get to get debts equivalent to 60% of GDP guaranteed by your peers.
That debt would therefore be seen as very safe, while debts in excess of the 60% would be seen as very risky.
I phrased it badly, I meant that if you're on 56.9% debt to GDP (eg France 2001) then what point is there in lowering your debt further if it is communal above that level, up to the threshold.
Obviously these are the total populations and the electorates are smaller but it should give you an idea. Birmingham is the biggest and should be remain.
Cornwall and Durham are larger councils that should be good for leave
If Eurobonds covered the first 60% of GDP and had corresponding priority, the yield curve would be extraordinary. The German Gov't I suspect would earn a fortune from "borrowing" !
The whole point would be to add a market based incentive to get debt down to 60% of GDP, because debt above that level would be quite expensive.
The other clever part about the proposal is that most countries would only have to issue Eurobonds for the next five years or so.
I think it's a very good solution - would the UK be part of this or is it Eurozone only ?
Eurozone only.
To be honest, I think the problems of the Eurozone would be much easier to solve if the EU and the Eurozone were the same. (And I'm not suggesting joining the Euro )
Have I got this right:
Country A, let's say Spain, can issue Eurobonds up to the value of 60% of its own GDP. These Eurobonds would have have a degree of comfort from other members of the Eurozone. SPain should be able to borrow more cheaply than before; but after 60% it would need to issue Spanish bonds, which now rank less well than the Eurobonds, and are effectively some sort of mezzanine finance and are more expensive.
Why would anyone give up the Eurobond after five years?
I'm merely looking at gross bond issuance required over the next five years, which would be able to be 100% filled by Eurobonds for most countries. (Everyone except Greece, tbh.)
If Eurobonds covered the first 60% of GDP and had corresponding priority, the yield curve would be extraordinary. The German Gov't I suspect would earn a fortune from "borrowing" !
The whole point would be to add a market based incentive to get debt down to 60% of GDP, because debt above that level would be quite expensive.
The other clever part about the proposal is that most countries would only have to issue Eurobonds for the next five years or so.
What incentive would there be to get debt below 60%?
In 2001 French debt to GDP was 56.9%, German debt to GDP was 59.1% while the UK was as low as 37.3% - how would that work with a Eurobond? How do you go below 60% if it is communal above that threshold?
It's communal BELOW the 60% threshold. You get to get debts equivalent to 60% of GDP guaranteed by your peers.
That debt would therefore be seen as very safe, while debts in excess of the 60% would be seen as very risky.
I phrased it badly, I meant that if you're on 56.9% debt to GDP (eg France 2001) then what point is there in lowering your debt further if it is communal above that level, up to the threshold.
There's no point. 60% is just an arbitrary level that I think most people would agree is not excessive.
Mr. Sandpit, I hope this time they have the rather good Sophie Raworth actually presenting in the studio rather than exiled to the exterior with a map of Britain specially designed to patronise an audience interested enough in politics to be watching it at 3am.
Yes, they do seem to regularly misjudge the audience for these programs. While they may have a general cross sectional audience up until about 1am, those watching all night are going to be either involved in the election in some way or be politics geeks interested in statistics rather than dodgy graphics.
I particularly hated the paving stones to No 10 last year. What's wrong with a good old-fashioned list?
I really don't know why the BBC run their election programmes like they are talking to primary school children.
There are also far too many spinning politicians talking rubbish and not enough analysis of the numbers and results with psephologists.
Both those things would be easier with us not in the EU.
A central eurozone bond market. The Southern states getting hold of Germany's credit card. Should be fun.
The whole point would be that you could only issue Eurobonds (to give them a name) up to 60% of GDP. Anything about that would Spanish Government Bonds, or whatever.
Would the Eurobonds be pari passu or have first charge status in the event of default ?
Given they are being guaranteed at a supranational level, it's a very good question. It would also be interesting to know how cross default provisions would work.
Surely they would have to be issued centrally, with provision for repayment from the EU budget? These things would be much easier if all EU countries used the Euro.
Not all, you would have French government bonds that were issued with the Eurobond stamp, and those that were not. It's not a gazillion miles different from when the US government chose to guarantee certain Mexican government bonds.
But why would the Germans at the Dutch be in favour of that?
Both those things would be easier with us not in the EU.
A central eurozone bond market. The Southern states getting hold of Germany's credit card. Should be fun.
The whole point would be that you could only issue Eurobonds (to give them a name) up to 60% of GDP. Anything about that would Spanish Government Bonds, or whatever.
Would the Eurobonds be pari passu or have first charge status in the event of default ?
Given they are being guaranteed at a supranational level, it's a very good question. It would also be interesting to know how cross default provisions would work.
Surely they would have to be issued centrally, with provision for repayment from the EU budget? These things would be much easier if all EU countries used the Euro.
Not all, you would have French government bonds that were issued with the Eurobond stamp, and those that were not. It's not a gazillion miles different from when the US government chose to guarantee certain Mexican government bonds.
But why would the Germans at the Dutch be in favour of that?
German unemployment is at a 25 year low because they are members of the Eurozone. They'd like it to stay together, but with the minimum risk of them being handed the bill.
This seems like a quite elegant solution to that problem.
If Eurobonds covered the first 60% of GDP and had corresponding priority, the yield curve would be extraordinary. The German Gov't I suspect would earn a fortune from "borrowing" !
The whole point would be to add a market based incentive to get debt down to 60% of GDP, because debt above that level would be quite expensive.
The other clever part about the proposal is that most countries would only have to issue Eurobonds for the next five years or so.
What incentive would there be to get debt below 60%?
In 2001 French debt to GDP was 56.9%, German debt to GDP was 59.1% while the UK was as low as 37.3% - how would that work with a Eurobond? How do you go below 60% if it is communal above that threshold?
It's communal BELOW the 60% threshold. You get to get debts equivalent to 60% of GDP guaranteed by your peers.
That debt would therefore be seen as very safe, while debts in excess of the 60% would be seen as very risky.
Hmmmm. But some countries like Italy already have public debt well above that. Sort of like closing the stable door after the horse has bolted. And then you have the issue of wider debt in the economy that effectively ends up on the government's balance sheet. Ireland had virtually no public debt in 2008 and then over 100% a couple of years later.
Mr. Sandpit, I hope this time they have the rather good Sophie Raworth actually presenting in the studio rather than exiled to the exterior with a map of Britain specially designed to patronise an audience interested enough in politics to be watching it at 3am.
Yes, they do seem to regularly misjudge the audience for these programs. While they may have a general cross sectional audience up until about 1am, those watching all night are going to be either involved in the election in some way or be politics geeks interested in statistics rather than dodgy graphics.
I particularly hated the paving stones to No 10 last year. What's wrong with a good old-fashioned list?
I really don't know why the BBC run their election programmes like they are talking to primary school children.
There are also far too many spinning politicians talking rubbish and not enough analysis of the numbers and results with psephologists.
And the BBC seemed to cover very few declarations - I switched over to Sky eventually as they actually seemed to be covering results live.
If Eurobonds covered the first 60% of GDP and had corresponding priority, the yield curve would be extraordinary. The German Gov't I suspect would earn a fortune from "borrowing" !
The whole point would be to add a market based incentive to get debt down to 60% of GDP, because debt above that level would be quite expensive.
The other clever part about the proposal is that most countries would only have to issue Eurobonds for the next five years or so.
What incentive would there be to get debt below 60%?
In 2001 French debt to GDP was 56.9%, German debt to GDP was 59.1% while the UK was as low as 37.3% - how would that work with a Eurobond? How do you go below 60% if it is communal above that threshold?
It's communal BELOW the 60% threshold. You get to get debts equivalent to 60% of GDP guaranteed by your peers.
That debt would therefore be seen as very safe, while debts in excess of the 60% would be seen as very risky.
I phrased it badly, I meant that if you're on 56.9% debt to GDP (eg France 2001) then what point is there in lowering your debt further if it is communal above that level, up to the threshold.
There's no point. 60% is just an arbitrary level that I think most people would agree is not excessive.
It's also the level EU countries, including Britain, are obliged to try to keep to under the Stabilisation Pact. 3% annual budget deficit is the other figure.
Mr. Sandpit, I hope this time they have the rather good Sophie Raworth actually presenting in the studio rather than exiled to the exterior with a map of Britain specially designed to patronise an audience interested enough in politics to be watching it at 3am.
Yes, they do seem to regularly misjudge the audience for these programs. While they may have a general cross sectional audience up until about 1am, those watching all night are going to be either involved in the election in some way or be politics geeks interested in statistics rather than dodgy graphics.
I particularly hated the paving stones to No 10 last year. What's wrong with a good old-fashioned list?
I really don't know why the BBC run their election programmes like they are talking to primary school children.
There are also far too many spinning politicians talking rubbish and not enough analysis of the numbers and results with psephologists.
Comments
To think that Mensch was at one time proposing to launch her own version of Twitter – Menschun...
https://twitter.com/David_Cameron/status/744980842846556160
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bwN_afbW30s
Sadiq is personally fine either way so no real skin in the game - but he's from the blairite/brownite wing of the party no? For them, Pro-European is as important to them as leaving is for kippers, so it will be a matter of principle.
You just can see the meeting in the Remain campaign headquarters, can;t you.
White working class men like football, don;t they? I know, let's get some famous...er...football players to come out for remain.
These simple white van driving folk are bound to follow their idols!
Consequently they may be shy to admit they are LEAVE supporters - even to pollsters.
Also unless REMAIN can keep up the intensity of Jo Cox in the news, this affect will start to diminish.
Consequently expect a little SWINGBACK to LEAVE by polling day.
What a load of Remain Shite.
I was actually asked to help deliver it FFS. Should have agreed and had a nice garden fire.
Remain Labour is so disconnected from its voters IMO
Wish I lived a mile down the road in Bolsover.
A Florida candidate for Congress has launched a contest on his Facebook campaign page to give away an AR-15 semi-automatic rifle on Independence Day.
Greg Evers announced the giveaway just a week after a gunman killed 49 people at a gay nightclub in Orlando using a semi-automatic rifle.
Writing on his Facebook page, Mr Evers said: "With terrorism incidents on the rise, both at home and abroad, protecting our constitutional rights has never been more important.
"With all that's happening in the world today, I've never felt stronger about the importance of the second amendment in protecting our homeland than I do now."
http://news.sky.com/story/1715303/florida-candidate-offers-ar-15-rifle-giveaway
The massive imbalances were run up between 2004 and 2008, at a time when no-one was talking about them. Now we all talk about them, even though they have essentially disappeared.
Mr. Evershed, there's a Jo Cox/pro-EU event planned tomorrow evening.
New Order @neworder 3m3 minutes ago
People On The High Line is our brand new single. Listen to @Claptone_ remix http://po.st/NewOrderPOTHLClaptone … #MusicComplete
I am beginning to suspect that you are that rare phenomenon - a one-handed lawyer.
Will the Speaker, John Bercow, have the casting vote in the event of a draw?
Which way will he vote?
May be a slight bounce on Remain, but not much. Doubt it will have sustained hold above $1.50 although it may test that level.
All quotes in cable.
I am not a currency trader. Do your own research.
OK, so this isn't a high bar.
1. It needs to complete a banking union, with a Eurozone wide deposit insurance scheme.
2. It needs to implement a (limited) central Eurozone bond market, which has joint and several liability among the EZ countries for debts covering (say) the first 60% of GDP. Anything issued in excess of the 60% mark would have no central backing.
Both those things would be easier with us not in the EU.
As I said earlier, Remain appear to be treating the British public as the bovine herd they believe them to be.
A central eurozone bond market. The Southern states getting hold of Germany's credit card. Should be fun.
Of course that will NOT apply on the 25th as the EU starts unrolling its held-up legislative and financial plans for the future.
As EMU evolves towards Economic, Financial and Fiscal Union, its external representation should be increasingly unified... in the international financial institutions, the EU and the euro area are still not represented as one. This fragmented voice means the EU is punching below its political and economic weight...
...a genuine Fiscal Union will require more joint decision-making on fiscal policy. This would not mean centralisation of all aspects of revenue and expenditure policy. Euro area Member States would continue to decide on taxation and the allocation of budgetary expenditures according to national preferences and political choices. However, as the euro area evolves towards a genuine EMU, some decisions will increasingly need to be made collectively while ensuring democratic accountability and legitimacy.
I'm sure PB coverage will be detailed, if frenetic. May just go to bed and see how things are when I awaken.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y7JX8D1Kb88
Seems they can't see that while it may reinforce already committed Remainers, it really REALLY pisses undecideds off.
One post actually started with this actual quote:
"I mean, obviously, vote Remain, but just in case, have a read of this"...
With a link to some childish thing comparing which celebs back which side, and sneering at the Leavers. It was clearly implied that "everyone" agreed with its sentiment, no other sane conclusion was possible.
Fascinating to see these people completely oblivious to the damage they are doing to their own cause as they reinforce each others' views.
You're the antithesis of a subprime mortgage derivatives-trading banker.
The other clever part about the proposal is that most countries would only have to issue Eurobonds for the next five years or so.
http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/eu-commission-president-juncker-under-fire-a-1098232.html
To be honest, I think the problems of the Eurozone would be much easier to solve if the EU and the Eurozone were the same. (And I'm not suggesting joining the Euro
Are there any individual counting areas large enough to really move the overall total on their own once a decent number of results are in?
In 2001 French debt to GDP was 56.9%, German debt to GDP was 59.1% while the UK was as low as 37.3% - how would that work with a Eurobond? How do you go below 60% if it is communal above that threshold?
On the one hand Leave have the advantage that they can use almost any issue where people are angry/fed up to support their cause ('wipe the smile off their faces'), resulting in a fairly chaotic alliance of the unhappy. On the other hand Remain have managed to establish a 'proof' threshold that lies firmly in their favour - it is up to Leave to prove that things would not be worse after Brexit (rather than better under remain).
I'm fascinated to see how these two unbalanced sets of arguments are going to be reconciled, whichever way the vote goes on Thursday.
Country A, let's say Spain, can issue Eurobonds up to the value of 60% of its own GDP. These Eurobonds would have have a degree of comfort from other members of the Eurozone. SPain should be able to borrow more cheaply than before; but after 60% it would need to issue Spanish bonds, which now rank less well than the Eurobonds, and are effectively some sort of mezzanine finance and are more expensive.
Why would anyone give up the Eurobond after five years?
They do it much better in America.
That debt would therefore be seen as very safe, while debts in excess of the 60% would be seen as very risky.
Scotland: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Scottish_council_areas_by_population
Wales https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Welsh_principal_areas_by_population
NI https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_districts_in_Northern_Ireland_by_population
Obviously these are the total populations and the electorates are smaller but it should give you an idea. Birmingham is the biggest and should be remain.
Cornwall and Durham are larger councils that should be good for leave
There are also far too many spinning politicians talking rubbish and not enough analysis of the numbers and results with psephologists.
This seems like a quite elegant solution to that problem.
17 reasons to leave the EU
http://sluggerotoole.com/2016/06/21/17-reasons-to-leave-the-eu/
I see Her Maj only asked for 3 !