COMPLETELY OT. A couple of years ago a poster on here posted regular articles by Christopher Booker who specialized in stories about how the state took children from families for no reason other than malice and caused families no end of heartache.
He made a career out of writing these stories for the Telegraph.
A very good friend of mine who is head of a social services department In London told me that his articles were invariably inaccurate and dangerous. Social services didn't take children away on a whim. It was never done other than in the direst circumstances.
What's more social workers couldn't speak up because of the necessity of confidentiality. So his inaccuracies couldn't be refuted. Todays case is just such an example.
I don't know whether Booker or even my friend's borough were involved but it shows what happens when press campaign's replace considered thought by people who genuinely care and know what they're doing.
Very poor show Roger. This is ons case out of many thousands which are decided in secret and with no public oversight to ensure justice. I too know social workers and they hate ghd law as it stands and what they see as a fundamentally flawed system. This one case does nothing beyond exposing your bias.
As someone who worked in child protection, managed social workers, trained social workers, spent hours in family court pursuing child protection cases....it is not the most perfect system to be sure, but it wouldn't surprise you to hear, that I agree 100% with Roger on this one.
I'm a millennial remainer living in France but even I find this video both cringeworthy and extremely unconvincing
I was all ready to cringe... but I didn't. I think that's quite an effective video. A simple, positive, emotional message, delivered directly. It may be bullshit, but it's better than most of the crap REMAIN has exuded.
If their campaign had been more in the style of that vid, they probably wouldn't be staring down the gun-barrel of 50/50 polls two days before the vote.
This was very much the message David Cameron was pushing at his press conference.
I was just thinking while doing my work that Cameron - and I like Cameron, and think he is by far the Tories' best asset - looked today like a politician who has realised that shit's your thanks in politics.
I like to try to see things from the other point of view, and here is a PM that has offered the people votes on AV, Scottish Independence and now EU membership. Can I imagine Blair or Brown ever being brave enough to do that? Ha - no chance.
And the consequence of Cameron's democratic unselfishness? He looks to me like a tired, fed-up, pissed-off, slightly desperate man who wishes he was sat on a beach holiday with his family somewhere and had never taken up politics in the first place.
I know we should never feel sympathy for any politician and I still hope LEAVE wins on Thursday (though I think the chances are negligible) but I have to say, being a politician - especially a leading politician - is a tough old job, and I actually felt for Cameron today.
Yes, the poor man must be exhausted - not through fear of failure and defeat, but simply through hours put in. Still, at least he can put his feet up in a few weeks, content in the knowledge that the post-Brexit misery he was warning everyone about will be Boris's problem.
Who is John Barnes? Googling comes up with some footballer, so presumably it must be some other John Barnes whose views are considered important on this issue.
Who is John Barnes? Googling comes up with some footballer, so presumably it must be some other John Barnes whose views are considered important on this issue.
It is the footballer.
He was Gove's start striker to oppose Beckham (also a footballer)
Sadly for Gove, he was looking at the wrong teamsheet
Who is John Barnes? Googling comes up with some footballer, so presumably it must be some other John Barnes whose views are considered important on this issue.
Well leave manage to show disdain for nobel scientists, economists, business leaders, all mainstream politicians, university VC's, world leaders as somehow complicit in the establishment liberal elite grand conspiracy.....so why not John Barnes?
Centrica have written pro-Remain to their 37k staff - Sky
These letters might not seem very important because the number of people receiving each one is tiny compared to the electorate as a whole.
But they all add up - and if the result is very tight then if they cumulatively move even one or two hundred thousand votes they could make a difference.
Again, it smacks of the Establishment looking patrician at best, desperate to cling onto their power at worst.
In many cases, I expect the response will be "Fuck you, Boss, I'm voting Leave...."
Seems to me a large part of the Leave motivation is "Fuck you" to everybody. Fair enough, people have that prerogative. What will stick in my craw is any subsequent moaning and whingeing from the same people if it goes tits up - the one thing that absolutely nobody can claim in this referendum is that they were not warned about what the possible consequences of Brexit. If people still want to go ahead that's their decision but any buyer's remorse is going to fall on deaf ears.
Mr. T, if Remain hadn't opened with the End of Civilisation and Cameron et al. had done some non-hyperbolic campaigning, I imagine they would've walked it.
I'm still astonished the polls are so close, but fully expecting Remain to win.
@Omnium I feel that I don't want to be told by complete strangers how I should choose to carry my own passport. That sounds a damn sight closer to serfdom than anything in Melanie Phillips' fevered imagination.
This a minor point though isn't it? You wish to be Mr Meeks, of great reputation in GB as it so happens, but Mr Meeks with a British passport nonetheless. Our Nation would wish you to be considered as a good egg. As such we can see no reason why you may not roam where you choose. Should you do something daft then we as a Nation will be there to apologise and mend.
COMPLETELY OT. A couple of years ago a poster on here posted regular articles by Christopher Booker who specialized in stories about how the state took children from families for no reason other than malice and caused families no end of heartache.
He made a career out of writing these stories for the Telegraph.
A very good friend of mine who is head of a social services department In London told me that his articles were invariably inaccurate and dangerous. Social services didn't take children away on a whim. It was never done other than in the direst circumstances.
What's more social workers couldn't speak up because of the necessity of confidentiality. So his inaccuracies couldn't be refuted. Todays case is just such an example.
I don't know whether Booker or even my friend's borough were involved but it shows what happens when press campaign's replace considered thought by people who genuinely care and know what they're doing.
Very poor show Roger. This is ons case out of many thousands which are decided in secret and with no public oversight to ensure justice. I too know social workers and they hate ghd law as it stands and what they see as a fundamentally flawed system. This one case does nothing beyond exposing your bias.
As someone who worked in child protection, managed social workers, trained social workers, spent hours in family court pursuing child protection cases....it is not the most perfect system to be sure, but it wouldn't surprise you to hear, that I agree 100% with Roger on this one.
Of course you do. You both think that the state is the ultimate expression of human endeavour
Centrica have written pro-Remain to their 37k staff - Sky
These letters might not seem very important because the number of people receiving each one is tiny compared to the electorate as a whole.
But they all add up - and if the result is very tight then if they cumulatively move even one or two hundred thousand votes they could make a difference.
Again, it smacks of the Establishment looking patrician at best, desperate to cling onto their power at worst.
In many cases, I expect the response will be "Fuck you, Boss, I'm voting Leave...."
Seems to me a large part of the Leave motivation is "Fuck you" to everybody. Fair enough, people have that prerogative. What will stick in my craw is any subsequent moaning and whingeing from the same people if it goes tits up - the one thing that absolutely nobody can claim in this referendum is that they were not warned about what the possible consequences of Brexit. If people still want to go ahead that's their decision but any buyer's remorse is going to fall on deaf ears.
I suppose the economists have their fingers crossed that it's third time a charm
I rather think some lefty Remainers may come to regret their insistence that Leave=Xenophobic Racism.
When, within the decade, the single European Health Service is launched, I can't quite see cheering on the left hand side of the Labour Party for the forced introduction of mix mode (public & private) provision....
If remain win, the above will be the next trigger for another in/out referendum, IMHO.
@DPJHodges: John Barnes may think he's backing Remain. But what does he know? Michael Gove knows better.
I think we all wondering what Remain's final, all-conquering endorsement would be, and now we know - a true megastar with global clout! Also, technically speaking, wasn't Barnes the first Briton to have a rap number one?
How bad a day is Gove having when even this guy says he lied... @BethRigby: John Barnes on @skynews now saying that Michael Gove is wrong and he DOES NOT support #voteleave.
Is this finally the story from you that means LEAVE have lost? Just asking. After all we have had more than 1,000 postings similar to this. But you may be right and Gove will be so mortified that he just gives up. What % results do your forecast from the actual vote in two days time?
Let's keep this in perspective, Michael Gove was live on LBC and the subject of David Beckham and Iain Dale cheekily asked him what footballers were for Brexit. He replied, Sol Campbell and John Barnes. He admitted he was not a football fan and in my view this was the only footballer that he could think of. This is just so trivial, it's laughable.
He should have focused on sovereignty and draped himself in the Union Jack 24/7 during the campaign, talking about how great Britain is and our potential.
That way, if LEAVE won, he could re-unite with the Tories having achieved his life's ambition. If REMAIN won, he would be able to present UKIP as a patriotic party for disaffected LEAVE-voting Tories, which would have particular power as soon as any more nasty plans come out of the EU.
I have consistently said that I expected Remain to win and frankly expected them to win fairly easily given all the advantages that they had.
Now, at the end of days (according to Alastair at least) I have changed my mind. I think Leave are going to win. Just. Or Remain. Not sure. Yeah, Leave. 52:48.
Mr. T, that may simply be because Remain has something to lose, so they're naturally more worried about what will happen.
That said, beware of confusing Twitter for the UK.
Oh of course. But it's blindingly obvious that the commentariat is having proper conniptions. They never imagined it would ever be this close.
Similar cries of pain can be heard from Brussels, Berlin, etc. Good. Even if REMAIN wins (still the most likely outcome) these people will have been given the scare of their lives.
And what do you think will be the effect of that scare, Mr. T? Carry on as before or change to take into account the growing unrest and dissatisfaction with the EU that is breaking out across Europe? My money is on the former. They will take the vote as a sign they can carry on, the only change they might make is to try and ensure they are never frightened again.
any buyer's remorse is going to fall on deaf ears.
Not so.
Boris has promised to apologise on live TV if it all goes tits up.
Which is nice...
Not sure Boris quite gets just how unpopular he is going to be should all this go wrong. I imagine it will concern him a lot more than it will concern the other Brexiteers. But promises have been made and will need to be delivered - no tax rises, more public spending, higher wages, more jobs, lower housing costs and far less immigration. When I read that I feel that I am mad to be voting against it. Truly the Leave Unicorn is a wondrous thing.
I have consistently said that I expected Remain to win and frankly expected them to win fairly easily given all the advantages that they had.
Now, at the end of days (according to Alastair at least) I have changed my mind. I think Leave are going to win. Just. Or Remain. Not sure. Yeah, Leave. 52:48.
Gulp.
Big call, Mr L.
Big.
I know. It was a lot easier voting for Leave when you thought they would probably lose. This is getting serious. But my mind is made up. Almost.
COMPLETELY OT. A couple of years ago a poster on here posted regular articles by Christopher Booker who specialized in stories about how the state took children from families for no reason other than malice and caused families no end of heartache.
He made a career out of writing these stories for the Telegraph.
A very good friend of mine who is head of a social services department In London told me that his articles were invariably inaccurate and dangerous. Social services didn't take children away on a whim. It was never done other than in the direst circumstances.
What's more social workers couldn't speak up because of the necessity of confidentiality. So his inaccuracies couldn't be refuted. Todays case is just such an example.
I don't know whether Booker or even my friend's borough were involved but it shows what happens when press campaign's replace considered thought by people who genuinely care and know what they're doing.
Very poor show Roger. This is ons case out of many thousands which are decided in secret and with no public oversight to ensure justice. I too know social workers and they hate ghd law as it stands and what they see as a fundamentally flawed system. This one case does nothing beyond exposing your bias.
As someone who worked in child protection, managed social workers, trained social workers, spent hours in family court pursuing child protection cases....it is not the most perfect system to be sure, but it wouldn't surprise you to hear, that I agree 100% with Roger on this one.
The "experts" always believe they are right, and only they are qualified to judge.
I think it quite improbable that either Roger or yourself would agree with the common police view on the Stephen Lawrence case, or the Birmingham 6... or the Guildford 4
@DPJHodges: John Barnes may think he's backing Remain. But what does he know? Michael Gove knows better.
I think we all wondering what Remain's final, all-conquering endorsement would be, and now we know - a true megastar with global clout! Also, technically speaking, wasn't Barnes the first Briton to have a rap number one?
Well since Mr Corbyn has said that all gays will be killed if we leave then he has every incentive. (IIRC)
I have consistently said that I expected Remain to win and frankly expected them to win fairly easily given all the advantages that they had.
Now, at the end of days (according to Alastair at least) I have changed my mind. I think Leave are going to win. Just. Or Remain. Not sure. Yeah, Leave. 52:48.
Gulp.
In a referendum on immigration - which this is - the side promising to reduce it will always win.
COMPLETELY OT. A couple of years ago a poster on here posted regular articles by Christopher Booker who specialized in stories about how the state took children from families for no reason other than malice and caused families no end of heartache.
He made a career out of writing these stories for the Telegraph.
A very good friend of mine who is head of a social services department In London told me that his articles were invariably inaccurate and dangerous. Social services didn't take children away on a whim. It was never done other than in the direst circumstances.
What's more social workers couldn't speak up because of the necessity of confidentiality. So his inaccuracies couldn't be refuted. Todays case is just such an example.
I don't know whether Booker or even my friend's borough were involved but it shows what happens when press campaign's replace considered thought by people who genuinely care and know what they're doing.
Very poor show Roger. This is ons case out of many thousands which are decided in secret and with no public oversight to ensure justice. I too know social workers and they hate ghd law as it stands and what they see as a fundamentally flawed system. This one case does nothing beyond exposing your bias.
As someone who worked in child protection, managed social workers, trained social workers, spent hours in family court pursuing child protection cases....it is not the most perfect system to be sure, but it wouldn't surprise you to hear, that I agree 100% with Roger on this one.
Of course you do. You both think that the state is the ultimate expression of human endeavour
Social workers merely police the line set by democratically elected Govt's.
I have to say, the Tories are much better in understanding how social workers should operate than Labour.
I'm going for 50:50 and a turnout of 64%. I honestly cannot call it for either side. Anti politics and immigration are a toxic brew.......
Have to go with the polls, which is Leave slightly ahead., with a slight reversion to the status quo. So a Remain result is just a tiny bit more likely than a Leave result. That doesn't mean 51/49. It could be 55/45 either way.
I'm a millennial remainer living in France but even I find this video both cringeworthy and extremely unconvincing
I was all ready to cringe... but I didn't. I think that's quite an effective video. A simple, positive, emotional message, delivered directly. It may be bullshit, but it's better than most of the crap REMAIN has exuded.
If their campaign had been more in the style of that vid, they probably wouldn't be staring down the gun-barrel of 50/50 polls two days before the vote.
For me it seemed too mushy, no substance behind it. Positive campaigning for remain was needed (I'd say it's way too late for it now) but having Polish and Italian friends as a reason to stay won't sway over those kids parents or grandparents.
Centrica have written pro-Remain to their 37k staff - Sky
These letters might not seem very important because the number of people receiving each one is tiny compared to the electorate as a whole.
But they all add up - and if the result is very tight then if they cumulatively move even one or two hundred thousand votes they could make a difference.
Again, it smacks of the Establishment looking patrician at best, desperate to cling onto their power at worst.
In many cases, I expect the response will be "Fuck you, Boss, I'm voting Leave...."
Seems to me a large part of the Leave motivation is "Fuck you" to everybody. Fair enough, people have that prerogative. What will stick in my craw is any subsequent moaning and whingeing from the same people if it goes tits up - the one thing that absolutely nobody can claim in this referendum is that they were not warned about what the possible consequences of Brexit. If people still want to go ahead that's their decision but any buyer's remorse is going to fall on deaf ears.
And what sort of tits up do you expect , Mr. T? Someone, and I am sorry I forget who, said on where this morning that the FTSE could fall, by 10%, the value of my house could drop by 10% and my income could drop by 10%. Well, I have been through all of those in the past, and worse, and each time I have survived. I am not prepared to be scared by such stories.
Goldman Sachs say we must stay in else financial and economic armageddon will descend on us. The chairman of JCB say we can not only survive but thrive. Which would you say is more worthy of belief?
Obviously these are the total populations and the electorates are smaller but it should give you an idea. Birmingham is the biggest and should be remain.
Cornwall and Durham are larger councils that should be good for leave
The voting model I've seen (whose source I forget momentarily), actually has Birmingham as a narrow leave! Also, as I understand, NI will be reporting as a single area, so would be the largest counting area, but results will be coming in quite fast at that point.
The important thing will be to put your FPTP head away for the night. The dead heat par scores predict Leave would win twice as many counting areas, but smaller ones.
To work out which seats lean Remain or Leave look at the UKIP score at the last election. Presuming Remain and Leave are exactly tied across the country if the UKIP score was less than the 12.7% UKIP got nationally then the seat should vote Remain and if UKIP got more than it got nationally in the seat then it should vote Leave
I have consistently said that I expected Remain to win and frankly expected them to win fairly easily given all the advantages that they had.
Now, at the end of days (according to Alastair at least) I have changed my mind. I think Leave are going to win. Just. Or Remain. Not sure. Yeah, Leave. 52:48.
Gulp.
PS how do you think BREXIT would play out in Scotland?
I think Sturgeon is bluffing. She won't call indyref 2 on the basis of a future iScotland joining the EU because that really WOULD mean frontiers at Berwick and a true currency nightmare. so even if she could negotiate the legal obstacles to a second vote (very hard as the UK would at the same time be thrashing out its own EU divorce) she'd likely lose her next referendum, too.
But I have called Scottish politics wrong, in the recent past. And she would be under severe pressure from frothier Nats to stage another plebiscite.
If UK voters as a whole are prepared to vote to leave the EU against almost all economic advice and projection, why would Scots not do the same thing when voting for independence? After all, no-one believes the experts anymore. Good things will just happen, because they will.
Centrica have written pro-Remain to their 37k staff - Sky
These letters might not seem very important because the number of people receiving each one is tiny compared to the electorate as a whole.
But they all add up - and if the result is very tight then if they cumulatively move even one or two hundred thousand votes they could make a difference.
Again, it smacks of the Establishment looking patrician at best, desperate to cling onto their power at worst.
In many cases, I expect the response will be "Fuck you, Boss, I'm voting Leave...."
Seems to me a large part of the Leave motivation is "Fuck you" to everybody. Fair enough, people have that prerogative. What will stick in my craw is any subsequent moaning and whingeing from the same people if it goes tits up - the one thing that absolutely nobody can claim in this referendum is that they were not warned about what the possible consequences of Brexit. If people still want to go ahead that's their decision but any buyer's remorse is going to fall on deaf ears.
I suppose the economists have their fingers crossed that it's third time a charm
People are absolutely free to ridicule the "experts", put 2 fingers up to their bosses, abuse the so-called "elite" etc etc. All I am saying is please don't come looking for sympathy if you are proved to be wrong.
I have consistently said that I expected Remain to win and frankly expected them to win fairly easily given all the advantages that they had.
Now, at the end of days (according to Alastair at least) I have changed my mind. I think Leave are going to win. Just. Or Remain. Not sure. Yeah, Leave. 52:48.
Gulp.
PS how do you think BREXIT would play out in Scotland?
I think Sturgeon is bluffing. She won't call indyref 2 on the basis of a future iScotland joining the EU because that really WOULD mean frontiers at Berwick and a true currency nightmare. so even if she could negotiate the legal obstacles to a second vote (very hard as the UK would at the same time be thrashing out its own EU divorce) she'd likely lose her next referendum, too.
But I have called Scottish politics wrong, in the recent past. And she would be under severe pressure from frothier Nats to stage another plebiscite.
I think she will look to play long. She will say that we need to wait to see what deal that the UK gets and whether it remains a part of the Single Market or not. She will also want to see if the oil price improves although I fear that ship has sailed.
Brexit creates a whole new set of problems for Sindy. England remains by far our largest market and we need a single market with England far, far more than we do with rEU. Nicola will not want another referendum unless she is very sure she is going to win and the polling on that at the moment is bad.
But you are right. The pressure on her would be severe.
COMPLETELY OT. A couple of years ago a poster on here posted regular articles by Christopher Booker who specialized in stories about how the state took children from families for no reason other than malice and caused families no end of heartache.
He made a career out of writing these stories for the Telegraph.
A very good friend of mine who is head of a social services department In London told me that his articles were invariably inaccurate and dangerous. Social services didn't take children away on a whim. It was never done other than in the direst circumstances.
What's more social workers couldn't speak up because of the necessity of confidentiality. So his inaccuracies couldn't be refuted. Todays case is just such an example.
I don't know whether Booker or even my friend's borough were involved but it shows what happens when press campaign's replace considered thought by people who genuinely care and know what they're doing.
Very poor show Roger. This is ons case out of many thousands which are decided in secret and with no public oversight to ensure justice. I too know social workers and they hate ghd law as it stands and what they see as a fundamentally flawed system. This one case does nothing beyond exposing your bias.
As someone who worked in child protection, managed social workers, trained social workers, spent hours in family court pursuing child protection cases....it is not the most perfect system to be sure, but it wouldn't surprise you to hear, that I agree 100% with Roger on this one.
Of course you do. You both think that the state is the ultimate expression of human endeavour
Social workers merely police the line set by democratically elected Govt's.
I have to say, the Tories are much better in understanding how social workers should operate than Labour.
In case you missed it my comment was not about social workers at all. As i said I have good friends including my business partner who are social workers. It is their comments on the system which help guide my opinions. My criticisms and Bookers were the way the family courts are run. I know a lot of social workers share this concern
Obviously these are the total populations and the electorates are smaller but it should give you an idea. Birmingham is the biggest and should be remain.
Cornwall and Durham are larger councils that should be good for leave
The voting model I've seen (whose source I forget momentarily), actually has Birmingham as a narrow leave! Also, as I understand, NI will be reporting as a single area, so would be the largest counting area, but results will be coming in quite fast at that point.
The important thing will be to put your FPTP head away for the night. The dead heat par scores predict Leave would win twice as many counting areas, but smaller ones.
Should we also expect remain to do well in the first few declarations, as they tend to be geographically smaller (urban)
Not necessarily, Sunderland should vote Leave while the Western Isles should vote Remain.
any buyer's remorse is going to fall on deaf ears.
Not so.
Boris has promised to apologise on live TV if it all goes tits up.
Which is nice...
Very noble of him considering he won't be the one that's affected by it.
Most of the rich guys pushing for Remain aren't affected by it.
The well-off, the retired, those who choose not to work and the entire elite - Leave and Remain - are going to be absolutely fine whatever the referendum result is.
Mr. T, that may simply be because Remain has something to lose, so they're naturally more worried about what will happen.
That said, beware of confusing Twitter for the UK.
Oh of course. But it's blindingly obvious that the commentariat is having proper conniptions. They never imagined it would ever be this close.
Similar cries of pain can be heard from Brussels, Berlin, etc. Good. Even if REMAIN wins (still the most likely outcome) these people will have been given the scare of their lives.
And what do you think will be the effect of that scare, Mr. T? Carry on as before or change to take into account the growing unrest and dissatisfaction with the EU that is breaking out across Europe? My money is on the former. They will take the vote as a sign they can carry on, the only change they might make is to try and ensure they are never frightened again.
I blame the Lib Dems - if they had agreed to a referendum during the last government... probably a 60:40 remain.
It is interesting to hear those who believe the mistake was having a referendum - this is the precisely the concept of the EU which is causing it to be despised. "We are the experts, and you are not worthy to interfere, with your silly voting nonsense".
The only way to win such things is to offer the choice - anyone think that denying an Indy ref for Scotland would have worked?
@DPJHodges: John Barnes may think he's backing Remain. But what does he know? Michael Gove knows better.
I think we all wondering what Remain's final, all-conquering endorsement would be, and now we know - a true megastar with global clout! Also, technically speaking, wasn't Barnes the first Briton to have a rap number one?
Obviously these are the total populations and the electorates are smaller but it should give you an idea. Birmingham is the biggest and should be remain.
Cornwall and Durham are larger councils that should be good for leave
The voting model I've seen (whose source I forget momentarily), actually has Birmingham as a narrow leave! Also, as I understand, NI will be reporting as a single area, so would be the largest counting area, but results will be coming in quite fast at that point.
The important thing will be to put your FPTP head away for the night. The dead heat par scores predict Leave would win twice as many counting areas, but smaller ones.
Should we also expect remain to do well in the first few declarations, as they tend to be geographically smaller (urban)
Not necessarily, Sunderland should vote Leave while the Western Isles should vote Remain.
Centrica have written pro-Remain to their 37k staff - Sky
These letters might not seem very important because the number of people receiving each one is tiny compared to the electorate as a whole.
But they all add up - and if the result is very tight then if they cumulatively move even one or two hundred thousand votes they could make a difference.
Again, it smacks of the Establishment looking patrician at best, desperate to cling onto their power at worst.
In many cases, I expect the response will be "Fuck you, Boss, I'm voting Leave...."
Seems to me a large part of the Leave motivation is "Fuck you" to everybody. Fair enough, people have that prerogative. What will stick in my craw is any subsequent moaning and whingeing from the same people if it goes tits up - the one thing that absolutely nobody can claim in this referendum is that they were not warned about what the possible consequences of Brexit. If people still want to go ahead that's their decision but any buyer's remorse is going to fall on deaf ears.
Because they feel their elected betters have said "Fuck you" to the voters, time after time.
Many of these people feel that they have no meaningful say on things that matter to them. Things such as migration into their country. Rightly so. They have been howled down as "racists" by a political elite for whom that is easier than entering into a reasoned debate.
Now they have a chance to stick it to the Man. Don't be surprised if they take that chance. Yes, it may be nihilistic. But hell, it will feel SO DAMNED GOOD.
The maths are awful for Remain. As I said this morning.
Electorate 46 Million
NI, Scotland, London = 10 Million
Wales and Rest of England = 36 Million.
Even if Scotland/NI/London vote 70-30 remain a 55.5-44.5 leave vote in Rest of England is enough.
Outside the university cities like Oxford, Norwich, Exeter and a few other Cities like Brighton & Manchester (city not greater) where will the votes for Remain come from?
I have consistently said that I expected Remain to win and frankly expected them to win fairly easily given all the advantages that they had.
Now, at the end of days (according to Alastair at least) I have changed my mind. I think Leave are going to win. Just. Or Remain. Not sure. Yeah, Leave. 52:48.
Gulp.
PS how do you think BREXIT would play out in Scotland?
I think Sturgeon is bluffing. She won't call indyref 2 on the basis of a future iScotland joining the EU because that really WOULD mean frontiers at Berwick and a true currency nightmare. so even if she could negotiate the legal obstacles to a second vote (very hard as the UK would at the same time be thrashing out its own EU divorce) she'd likely lose her next referendum, too.
But I have called Scottish politics wrong, in the recent past. And she would be under severe pressure from frothier Nats to stage another plebiscite.
Remain will win in Scotland but I expect the turn out to be low.
Mr. T, that may simply be because Remain has something to lose, so they're naturally more worried about what will happen.
That said, beware of confusing Twitter for the UK.
Oh of course. But it's blindingly obvious that the commentariat is having proper conniptions. They never imagined it would ever be this close.
Similar cries of pain can be heard from Brussels, Berlin, etc. Good. Even if REMAIN wins (still the most likely outcome) these people will have been given the scare of their lives.
And what do you think will be the effect of that scare, Mr. T? Carry on as before or change to take into account the growing unrest and dissatisfaction with the EU that is breaking out across Europe? My money is on the former. They will take the vote as a sign they can carry on, the only change they might make is to try and ensure they are never frightened again.
Yes, possibly so. But at least they will have been scared, once. Better than never.
Also I think you might be wrong. I've no doubt the eurocrats will try and carry on as if nothing has happened, but national politicians will come under intense pressure from their own populists - Wilders, Le Pen, the Swedish Democrats, the True Finns, et al. Brexit would shake everything up.
Yep, spot on. There was a poll in Holland yesterday giving a majority to Nexit. Politicians just cannot ignore that kind of thing.
The maths are awful for Remain. As I said this morning.
Electorate 46 Million
NI, Scotland, London = 10 Million
Wales and Rest of England = 36 Million.
Even if Scotland/NI/London vote 70-30 remain a 55.5-44.5 leave vote in Rest of England is enough.
Outside the university cities like Oxford, Norwich, Exeter and a few other Cities like Brighton & Manchester (city not greater) where will the votes for Remain come from?
Sorry but Remain have had it.
'Kin hell, even IOS would blush at the hubris you're displaying.
I have consistently said that I expected Remain to win and frankly expected them to win fairly easily given all the advantages that they had.
Now, at the end of days (according to Alastair at least) I have changed my mind. I think Leave are going to win. Just. Or Remain. Not sure. Yeah, Leave. 52:48.
Gulp.
PS how do you think BREXIT would play out in Scotland?
I think Sturgeon is bluffing. She won't call indyref 2 on the basis of a future iScotland joining the EU because that really WOULD mean frontiers at Berwick and a true currency nightmare. so even if she could negotiate the legal obstacles to a second vote (very hard as the UK would at the same time be thrashing out its own EU divorce) she'd likely lose her next referendum, too.
But I have called Scottish politics wrong, in the recent past. And she would be under severe pressure from frothier Nats to stage another plebiscite.
In terms of Scottish Independence, a Brexit vote puts Unionists in a rather difficult situation. They need to hope that the fallout post Leave is bad enough to confirm their dire warnings. If it is not, and I think it will be relatively benign, then the likelihood of another Project Fear working in a second Indyref becomes very unlikely.
That's not good for the Establishment. Hope the economy tanks or accept Scotland goes her own way. A poorer Britain or a broken Britain, if you will.
Centrica have written pro-Remain to their 37k staff - Sky
These letters might not seem very important because the number of people receiving each one is tiny compared to the electorate as a whole.
But they all add up - and if the result is very tight then if they cumulatively move even one or two hundred thousand votes they could make a difference.
Again, it smacks of the Establishment looking patrician at best, desperate to cling onto their power at worst.
In many cases, I expect the response will be "Fuck you, Boss, I'm voting Leave...."
Seems to me a large part of the Leave motivation is "Fuck you" to everybody. Fair enough, people have that prerogative. What will stick in my craw is any subsequent moaning and whingeing from the same people if it goes tits up - the one thing that absolutely nobody can claim in this referendum is that they were not warned about what the possible consequences of Brexit. If people still want to go ahead that's their decision but any buyer's remorse is going to fall on deaf ears.
Because they feel their elected betters have said "Fuck you" to the voters, time after time.
Many of these people feel that they have no meaningful say on things that matter to them. Things such as migration into their country. Rightly so. They have been howled down as "racists" by a political elite for whom that is easier than entering into a reasoned debate.
Now they have a chance to stick it to the Man. Don't be surprised if they take that chance. Yes, it may be nihilistic. But hell, it will feel SO DAMNED GOOD.
It will; then it won't. And they will go back to being ignored by Boris and Mike.
I think she will look to play long. She will say that we need to wait to see what deal that the UK gets and whether it remains a part of the Single Market or not. She will also want to see if the oil price improves although I fear that ship has sailed.
Brexit creates a whole new set of problems for Sindy. England remains by far our largest market and we need a single market with England far, far more than we do with rEU. Nicola will not want another referendum unless she is very sure she is going to win and the polling on that at the moment is bad.
But you are right. The pressure on her would be severe.
Brexit only causes problems for Independence if the dire warnings turn out to have any merit. If the economy does not collapse, those who claimed the experts were talking nonsense will be proven right and that will be a massive boost for Independence.
Mr. T, that may simply be because Remain has something to lose, so they're naturally more worried about what will happen.
That said, beware of confusing Twitter for the UK.
Oh of course. But it's blindingly obvious that the commentariat is having proper conniptions. They never imagined it would ever be this close.
Similar cries of pain can be heard from Brussels, Berlin, etc. Good. Even if REMAIN wins (still the most likely outcome) these people will have been given the scare of their lives.
And what do you think will be the effect of that scare, Mr. T? Carry on as before or change to take into account the growing unrest and dissatisfaction with the EU that is breaking out across Europe? My money is on the former. They will take the vote as a sign they can carry on, the only change they might make is to try and ensure they are never frightened again.
Yes, possibly so. But at least they will have been scared, once. Better than never.
Also I think you might be wrong. I've no doubt the eurocrats will try and carry on as if nothing has happened, but national politicians will come under intense pressure from their own populists - Wilders, Le Pen, the Swedish Democrats, the True Finns, et al. Brexit would shake everything up.
Yep, spot on. There was a poll in Holland yesterday giving a majority to Nexit. Politicians just cannot ignore that kind of thing.
In much of Europe the establishment would rather die than be anything other than pro EU. This will be interpreted (stupidly) as holding out against a referendum at all costs.
If you want to win an argument, ShutUpBecause is not a winning strategy
Centrica have written pro-Remain to their 37k staff - Sky
These letters might not seem very important because the number of people receiving each one is tiny compared to the electorate as a whole.
But they all add up - and if the result is very tight then if they cumulatively move even one or two hundred thousand votes they could make a difference.
Again, it smacks of the Establishment looking patrician at best, desperate to cling onto their power at worst.
In many cases, I expect the response will be "Fuck you, Boss, I'm voting Leave...."
Seems to me a large part of the Leave motivation is "Fuck you" to everybody. Fair enough, people have that prerogative. What will stick in my craw is any subsequent moaning and whingeing from the same people if it goes tits up - the one thing that absolutely nobody can claim in this referendum is that they were not warned about what the possible consequences of Brexit. If people still want to go ahead that's their decision but any buyer's remorse is going to fall on deaf ears.
And what sort of tits up do you expect , Mr. T? Someone, and I am sorry I forget who, said on where this morning that the FTSE could fall, by 10%, the value of my house could drop by 10% and my income could drop by 10%. Well, I have been through all of those in the past, and worse, and each time I have survived. I am not prepared to be scared by such stories.
Goldman Sachs say we must stay in else financial and economic armageddon will descend on us. The chairman of JCB say we can not only survive but thrive. Which would you say is more worthy of belief?
You may well be able to cope with a 10% fall in income, many others won't. And should it be across the board, that means significantly less tax take, which also means higher borrowing, higher taxes and more cuts. Again, the people most affected will be those at the bottom who Boris and Mike are supposed to be speaking for these days, having completely ignored them up to now.
Centrica have written pro-Remain to their 37k staff - Sky
These letters might not seem very important because the number of people receiving each one is tiny compared to the electorate as a whole.
But they all add up - and if the result is very tight then if they cumulatively move even one or two hundred thousand votes they could make a difference.
Again, it smacks of the Establishment looking patrician at best, desperate to cling onto their power at worst.
In many cases, I expect the response will be "Fuck you, Boss, I'm voting Leave...."
Seems to me a large part of the Leave motivation is "Fuck you" to everybody. Fair enough, people have that prerogative. What will stick in my craw is any subsequent moaning and whingeing from the same people if it goes tits up - the one thing that absolutely nobody can claim in this referendum is that they were not warned about what the possible consequences of Brexit. If people still want to go ahead that's their decision but any buyer's remorse is going to fall on deaf ears.
And what sort of tits up do you expect , Mr. T? Someone, and I am sorry I forget who, said on where this morning that the FTSE could fall, by 10%, the value of my house could drop by 10% and my income could drop by 10%. Well, I have been through all of those in the past, and worse, and each time I have survived. I am not prepared to be scared by such stories.
Goldman Sachs say we must stay in else financial and economic armageddon will descend on us. The chairman of JCB say we can not only survive but thrive. Which would you say is more worthy of belief?
I was thinking more in terms of workers at Nissan, Centrica, Airbus saying "fuck you" to the bosses (as MarqueeMark put it) and voting Leave. Fine if they do but if Brexit ultimately means they lose their jobs sympathy will be thin on the ground.
I have consistently said that I expected Remain to win and frankly expected them to win fairly easily given all the advantages that they had.
Now, at the end of days (according to Alastair at least) I have changed my mind. I think Leave are going to win. Just. Or Remain. Not sure. Yeah, Leave. 52:48.
Gulp.
PS how do you think BREXIT would play out in Scotland?
I think Sturgeon is bluffing. She won't call indyref 2 on the basis of a future iScotland joining the EU because that really WOULD mean frontiers at Berwick and a true currency nightmare. so even if she could negotiate the legal obstacles to a second vote (very hard as the UK would at the same time be thrashing out its own EU divorce) she'd likely lose her next referendum, too.
But I have called Scottish politics wrong, in the recent past. And she would be under severe pressure from frothier Nats to stage another plebiscite.
In terms of Scottish Independence, a Brexit vote puts Unionists in a rather difficult situation. They need to hope that the fallout post Leave is bad enough to confirm their dire warnings. If it is not, and I think it will be relatively benign, then the likelihood of another Project Fear working in a second Indyref becomes very unlikely.
That's not good for the Establishment. Hope the economy tanks or accept Scotland goes her own way. A poorer Britain or a broken Britain, if you will.
At the moment I think it is a shade more likely England votes Leave and the UK Remain than Scotland votes Remain and the UK Leave
I think she will look to play long. She will say that we need to wait to see what deal that the UK gets and whether it remains a part of the Single Market or not. She will also want to see if the oil price improves although I fear that ship has sailed.
Brexit creates a whole new set of problems for Sindy. England remains by far our largest market and we need a single market with England far, far more than we do with rEU. Nicola will not want another referendum unless she is very sure she is going to win and the polling on that at the moment is bad.
But you are right. The pressure on her would be severe.
Brexit only causes problems for Independence if the dire warnings turn out to have any merit. If the economy does not collapse, those who claimed the experts were talking nonsense will be proven right and that will be a massive boost for Independence.
I can see the point you are making but we will be a lot more closely tied to the future of England outside the EU than we would be if all of the UK remained inside the EU.
And the terms on which Scotland might be able to rejoin would be problematic. No rebate, probably the Euro, and Schengen and not even the pretence of a seat at the big table, just a bench with the tiddlers. Not attractive.
Am I the only one thinking the turnout is being overblown a bit? As far as I see it I'm not sure turnout is going to be much higher than the GE, if that.
I have consistently said that I expected Remain to win and frankly expected them to win fairly easily given all the advantages that they had.
Now, at the end of days (according to Alastair at least) I have changed my mind. I think Leave are going to win. Just. Or Remain. Not sure. Yeah, Leave. 52:48.
Gulp.
PS how do you think BREXIT would play out in Scotland?
I think Sturgeon is bluffing. She won't call indyref 2 on the basis of a future iScotland joining the EU because that really WOULD mean frontiers at Berwick and a true currency nightmare. so even if she could negotiate the legal obstacles to a second vote (very hard as the UK would at the same time be thrashing out its own EU divorce) she'd likely lose her next referendum, too.
But I have called Scottish politics wrong, in the recent past. And she would be under severe pressure from frothier Nats to stage another plebiscite.
In terms of Scottish Independence, a Brexit vote puts Unionists in a rather difficult situation. They need to hope that the fallout post Leave is bad enough to confirm their dire warnings. If it is not, and I think it will be relatively benign, then the likelihood of another Project Fear working in a second Indyref becomes very unlikely.
That's not good for the Establishment. Hope the economy tanks or accept Scotland goes her own way. A poorer Britain or a broken Britain, if you will.
Yep, that sounds about right to me. Though if things really tank post-Brexit, Scots may well conclude that they have very little left to lose anyway. If English voters can vote against their economic self-interest, why not Scots?
Mr. T, that may simply be because Remain has something to lose, so they're naturally more worried about what will happen.
That said, beware of confusing Twitter for the UK.
Oh of course. But it's blindingly obvious that the commentariat is having proper conniptions. They never imagined it would ever be this close.
Similar cries of pain can be heard from Brussels, Berlin, etc. Good. Even if REMAIN wins (still the most likely outcome) these people will have been given the scare of their lives.
And what do you think will be the effect of that scare, Mr. T? Carry on as before or change to take into account the growing unrest and dissatisfaction with the EU that is breaking out across Europe? My money is on the former. They will take the vote as a sign they can carry on, the only change they might make is to try and ensure they are never frightened again.
Yes, possibly so. But at least they will have been scared, once. Better than never.
Also I think you might be wrong. I've no doubt the eurocrats will try and carry on as if nothing has happened, but national politicians will come under intense pressure from their own populists - Wilders, Le Pen, the Swedish Democrats, the True Finns, et al. Brexit would shake everything up.
Yep, spot on. There was a poll in Holland yesterday giving a majority to Nexit. Politicians just cannot ignore that kind of thing.
I've just spent a week in Calabria. It was great fun, coz I had a nice time in the sun, for free, but, fuck me, the Mezzogiorno - Calabria especially - is in dire straits. Parts of it feel poorer than North Africa.
I know the problems of southern Italy long predate the euro and even the EU. But the euro and the EU have not helped. Europe needs shaking up. It is failing too many of its citizens, very badly.
Brexit might just do that. Of course it might not. But maybe Fate is ready to roll the dice.
The problem with Southern Italy is that the North of Italy is so rich - and thus Italy has to pay towards the EU - rather than helping the South. (Italy's net contribution is very similar to the UK's)
I think she will look to play long. She will say that we need to wait to see what deal that the UK gets and whether it remains a part of the Single Market or not. She will also want to see if the oil price improves although I fear that ship has sailed.
Brexit creates a whole new set of problems for Sindy. England remains by far our largest market and we need a single market with England far, far more than we do with rEU. Nicola will not want another referendum unless she is very sure she is going to win and the polling on that at the moment is bad.
But you are right. The pressure on her would be severe.
Brexit only causes problems for Independence if the dire warnings turn out to have any merit. If the economy does not collapse, those who claimed the experts were talking nonsense will be proven right and that will be a massive boost for Independence.
If the UK prospers outside the EU then there is almost zero chance the Scots would risk all that, to join the EU, and take up the euro, and suffer frontiers and tariffs along Hadrian's Wall. Plus, iSotland in the EU would mean a much more distant, heavy handed government from Brussels, compared to the sweet deal they get right now in London (a large bloc of MPs voting at Westminster but virtual autonomy at home).
iScotland's best hope is that iUK goes into Depression
I have consistently said that I expected Remain to win and frankly expected them to win fairly easily given all the advantages that they had.
Now, at the end of days (according to Alastair at least) I have changed my mind. I think Leave are going to win. Just. Or Remain. Not sure. Yeah, Leave. 52:48.
Gulp.
PS how do you think BREXIT would play out in Scotland?
I think Sturgeon is bluffing. She won't call indyref 2 on the basis of a future iScotland joining the EU because that really WOULD mean frontiers at Berwick and a true currency nightmare. so even if she could negotiate the legal obstacles to a second vote (very hard as the UK would at the same time be thrashing out its own EU divorce) she'd likely lose her next referendum, too.
But I have called Scottish politics wrong, in the recent past. And she would be under severe pressure from frothier Nats to stage another plebiscite.
This article from Alex Bellexplains the practical difficulties in Scotland negotiating to join the EU at the same time as the UK is leaving it. Well worth a read.
Having said that, constitutional change tends to happen at times of disruption and all the SNP need is 51% of the vote to be in favour. Voters don't have to know what they are doing (the EUref is a case in point) .
Alex Bell was SNP's Director of Policy but left due to the frustration of them not actually having policies and seems to have fallen out with their leadership and direction.
Centrica have written pro-Remain to their 37k staff - Sky
These letters might not seem very important because the number of people receiving each one is tiny compared to the electorate as a whole.
But they all add up - and if the result is very tight then if they cumulatively move even one or two hundred thousand votes they could make a difference.
Again, it smacks of the Establishment looking patrician at best, desperate to cling onto their power at worst.
In many cases, I expect the response will be "Fuck you, Boss, I'm voting Leave...."
Seems to me a large part of the Leave motivation is "Fuck you" to everybody. Fair enough, people have that prerogative. What will stick in my craw is any subsequent moaning and whingeing from the same people if it goes tits up - the one thing that absolutely nobody can claim in this referendum is that they were not warned about what the possible consequences of Brexit. If people still want to go ahead that's their decision but any buyer's remorse is going to fall on deaf ears.
And what sort of tits up do you expect , Mr. T? Someone, and I am sorry I forget who, said on where this morning that the FTSE could fall, by 10%, the value of my house could drop by 10% and my income could drop by 10%. Well, I have been through all of those in the past, and worse, and each time I have survived. I am not prepared to be scared by such stories.
Goldman Sachs say we must stay in else financial and economic armageddon will descend on us. The chairman of JCB say we can not only survive but thrive. Which would you say is more worthy of belief?
You may well be able to cope with a 10% fall in income, many others won't. And should it be across the board, that means significantly less tax take, which also means higher borrowing, higher taxes and more cuts. Again, the people most affected will be those at the bottom who Boris and Mike are supposed to be speaking for these days, having completely ignored them up to now.
I just don't get how this is even close. It is illogical that people would vote to make the country poorer. That is what nationalism, populism, and xenophobia does to you. History is littered with countries who self destructed chasing populist dreams.
I have consistently said that I expected Remain to win and frankly expected them to win fairly easily given all the advantages that they had.
Now, at the end of days (according to Alastair at least) I have changed my mind. I think Leave are going to win. Just. Or Remain. Not sure. Yeah, Leave. 52:48.
Gulp.
PS how do you think BREXIT would play out in Scotland?
I think Sturgeon is bluffing. She won't call indyref 2 on the basis of a future iScotland joining the EU because that really WOULD mean frontiers at Berwick and a true currency nightmare. so even if she could negotiate the legal obstacles to a second vote (very hard as the UK would at the same time be thrashing out its own EU divorce) she'd likely lose her next referendum, too.
But I have called Scottish politics wrong, in the recent past. And she would be under severe pressure from frothier Nats to stage another plebiscite.
Remain will win in Scotland but I expect the turn out to be low.
The maths are awful for Remain. As I said this morning.
Electorate 46 Million
NI, Scotland, London = 10 Million
Wales and Rest of England = 36 Million.
Even if Scotland/NI/London vote 70-30 remain a 55.5-44.5 leave vote in Rest of England is enough.
Outside the university cities like Oxford, Norwich, Exeter and a few other Cities like Brighton & Manchester (city not greater) where will the votes for Remain come from?
Sorry but Remain have had it.
Rubbish, the Kent poll posted earlier showed Remain winning Tunbridge Wells, Tonbridge and Malling, Sevenoaks, Canterbury and Gravesham. Yes Leave won more Kent seats overall but results like that should be enough to keep Leave under 55% across England even if it wins a majority in England thus allowing Scotland and London to give Remain a narrow lead across the UK
Am I the only one thinking the turnout is being overblown a bit? As far as I see it I'm not sure turnout is going to be much higher than the GE, if that.
Given that turnout estimates range from under GE to a bit more, not sure anyone is in danger of overcooking this...
Centrica have written pro-Remain to their 37k staff - Sky
These letters might not seem very important because the number of people receiving each one is tiny compared to the electorate as a whole.
But they all add up - and if the result is very tight then if they cumulatively move even one or two hundred thousand votes they could make a difference.
Again, it smacks of the Establishment looking patrician at best, desperate to cling onto their power at worst.
In many cases, I expect the response will be "Fuck you, Boss, I'm voting Leave...."
Seems to me a large part of the Leave motivation is "Fuck you" to everybody. Fair enough, people have that prerogative. What will stick in my craw is any subsequent moaning and whingeing from the same people if it goes tits up - the one thing that absolutely nobody can claim in this referendum is that they were not warned about what the possible consequences of Brexit. If people still want to go ahead that's their decision but any buyer's remorse is going to fall on deaf ears.
And what sort of tits up do you expect , Mr. T? Someone, and I am sorry I forget who, said on where this morning that the FTSE could fall, by 10%, the value of my house could drop by 10% and my income could drop by 10%. Well, I have been through all of those in the past, and worse, and each time I have survived. I am not prepared to be scared by such stories.
Goldman Sachs say we must stay in else financial and economic armageddon will descend on us. The chairman of JCB say we can not only survive but thrive. Which would you say is more worthy of belief?
You may well be able to cope with a 10% fall in income, many others won't. And should it be across the board, that means significantly less tax take, which also means higher borrowing, higher taxes and more cuts. Again, the people most affected will be those at the bottom who Boris and Mike are supposed to be speaking for these days, having completely ignored them up to now.
I just don't get how this is even close. It is illogical that people would vote to make the country poorer. That is what nationalism, populism, and xenophobia does to you. History is littered with countries who self destructed chasing populist dreams.
It's a referendum on immigration. The PM, the Chancellor, the Home Secretary, the Foreign Secretary and every other Tory Remain minister has been telling voters for the last eight years that there is far too much immigration and it as to be brought under control. Voters believe it and will vote accordingly.
Centrica have written pro-Remain to their 37k staff - Sky
These letters might not seem very important because the number of people receiving each one is tiny compared to the electorate as a whole.
But they all add up - and if the result is very tight then if they cumulatively move even one or two hundred thousand votes they could make a difference.
Again, it smacks of the Establishment looking patrician at best, desperate to cling onto their power at worst.
In many cases, I expect the response will be "Fuck you, Boss, I'm voting Leave...."
Seems to me a large part of the Leave motivation is "Fuck you" to everybody. Fair enough, people have that prerogative. What will stick in my craw is any subsequent moaning and whingeing from the same people if it goes tits up - the one thing that absolutely nobody can claim in this referendum is that they were not warned about what the possible consequences of Brexit. If people still want to go ahead that's their decision but any buyer's remorse is going to fall on deaf ears.
And what sort of tits up do you expect , Mr. T? Someone, and I am sorry I forget who, said on where this morning that the FTSE could fall, by 10%, the value of my house could drop by 10% and my income could drop by 10%. Well, I have been through all of those in the past, and worse, and each time I have survived. I am not prepared to be scared by such stories.
Goldman Sachs say we must stay in else financial and economic armageddon will descend on us. The chairman of JCB say we can not only survive but thrive. Which would you say is more worthy of belief?
You may well be able to cope with a 10% fall in income, many others won't. And should it be across the board, that means significantly less tax take, which also means higher borrowing, higher taxes and more cuts. Again, the people most affected will be those at the bottom who Boris and Mike are supposed to be speaking for these days, having completely ignored them up to now.
Sorry, Mr. O., but when my income dropped by a damn sight more than 10%, I could not afford it either (in 1995 my wife and I went through a period in which we had a disposable income of £20 per month and a two year old toddler). There is nothing that is being threatened that I haven't lived through before. I see no reason to be scared by the stories being put about.
Comments
Wait.. surely you always turn left?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VXF2kYK30co
Germany made just 2 changes for 3rd game.... neither of them involved bringing in wilshere.
That said, beware of confusing Twitter for the UK.
He was Gove's start striker to oppose Beckham (also a footballer)
Sadly for Gove, he was looking at the wrong teamsheet
http://order-order.com/2016/06/21/remain-leaflet-blames-leave-jo-coxs-murder-start/
I'm going for 50:50 and a turnout of 64%. I honestly cannot call it for either side. Anti politics and immigration are a toxic brew.......
I'm still astonished the polls are so close, but fully expecting Remain to win.
Boris has promised to apologise on live TV if it all goes tits up.
Which is nice...
When, within the decade, the single European Health Service is launched, I can't quite see cheering on the left hand side of the Labour Party for the forced introduction of mix mode (public & private) provision....
If remain win, the above will be the next trigger for another in/out referendum, IMHO.
Voting remain, by the way
He should have focused on sovereignty and draped himself in the Union Jack 24/7 during the campaign, talking about how great Britain is and our potential.
That way, if LEAVE won, he could re-unite with the Tories having achieved his life's ambition.
If REMAIN won, he would be able to present UKIP as a patriotic party for disaffected LEAVE-voting Tories, which would have particular power as soon as any more nasty plans come out of the EU.
As it is he is going down the "Mr 15%" route
Now, at the end of days (according to Alastair at least) I have changed my mind. I think Leave are going to win. Just. Or Remain. Not sure. Yeah, Leave. 52:48.
Gulp.
I think it quite improbable that either Roger or yourself would agree with the common police view on the Stephen Lawrence case, or the Birmingham 6... or the Guildford 4
Or with the RAF on the Mull of Kintyre crash.
etc etc..
All agencies need outside oversight.
46.4m voters on electoral register, two million more than December 2015, reports Electoral Commission
I have to say, the Tories are much better in understanding how social workers should operate than Labour.
5% higher turnout than the GE, giving 71%.
I still think Remain will win.
Goldman Sachs say we must stay in else financial and economic armageddon will descend on us. The chairman of JCB say we can not only survive but thrive. Which would you say is more worthy of belief?
54% leave.
Most of the rich guys pushing for Remain aren't affected by it.
We have heard much from Cameroon dripping wet tories about Nudge Theory.
HMQ has just given them a masterclass in how to do it, as she did before the Scottish Referendum.
GOD SAVE THE QUEEN!
Brexit creates a whole new set of problems for Sindy. England remains by far our largest market and we need a single market with England far, far more than we do with rEU. Nicola will not want another referendum unless she is very sure she is going to win and the polling on that at the moment is bad.
But you are right. The pressure on her would be severe.
It is interesting to hear those who believe the mistake was having a referendum - this is the precisely the concept of the EU which is causing it to be despised. "We are the experts, and you are not worthy to interfere, with your silly voting nonsense".
The only way to win such things is to offer the choice - anyone think that denying an Indy ref for Scotland would have worked?
GE 2015 electorate = 46,420k
Many of these people feel that they have no meaningful say on things that matter to them. Things such as migration into their country. Rightly so. They have been howled down as "racists" by a political elite for whom that is easier than entering into a reasoned debate.
Now they have a chance to stick it to the Man. Don't be surprised if they take that chance. Yes, it may be nihilistic. But hell, it will feel SO DAMNED GOOD.
Electorate 46 Million
NI, Scotland, London = 10 Million
Wales and Rest of England = 36 Million.
Even if Scotland/NI/London vote 70-30 remain a 55.5-44.5 leave vote in Rest of England is enough.
Outside the university cities like Oxford, Norwich, Exeter and a few other Cities like Brighton & Manchester (city not greater) where will the votes for Remain come from?
Sorry but Remain have had it.
That's not good for the Establishment. Hope the economy tanks or accept Scotland goes her own way. A poorer Britain or a broken Britain, if you will.
On the other hand, if Sweden has a referendum, we could be in for even more aurally offensive terms.
If you want to win an argument, ShutUpBecause is not a winning strategy
http://i2.wp.com/order-order.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/remain2.jpg?zoom=4&resize=540,814
f
And the terms on which Scotland might be able to rejoin would be problematic. No rebate, probably the Euro, and Schengen and not even the pretence of a seat at the big table, just a bench with the tiddlers. Not attractive.
https://www.twitter.com/EuroGuido/status/745301017177243648
Am I the only one thinking the turnout is being overblown a bit? As far as I see it I'm not sure turnout is going to be much higher than the GE, if that.
Having said that, constitutional change tends to happen at times of disruption and all the SNP need is 51% of the vote to be in favour. Voters don't have to know what they are doing (the EUref is a case in point) .
Alex Bell was SNP's Director of Policy but left due to the frustration of them not actually having policies and seems to have fallen out with their leadership and direction.
Although I do enjoy the company of my Californian wife.