I think she will look to play long. She will say that we need to wait to see what deal that the UK gets and whether it remains a part of the Single Market or not. She will also want to see if the oil price improves although I fear that ship has sailed.
Brexit creates a whole new set of problems for Sindy. England remains by far our largest market and we need a single market with England far, far more than we do with rEU. Nicola will not want another referendum unless she is very sure she is going to win and the polling on that at the moment is bad.
But you are right. The pressure on her would be severe.
Brexit only causes problems for Independence if the dire warnings turn out to have any merit. If the economy does not collapse, those who claimed the experts were talking nonsense will be proven right and that will be a massive boost for Independence.
If the UK prospers outside the EU then there is almost zero chance the Scots would risk all that, to join the EU, and take up the euro, and suffer frontiers and tariffs along Hadrian's Wall. Plus, iSotland in the EU would mean a much more distant, heavy handed government from Brussels, compared to the sweet deal they get right now in London (a large bloc of MPs voting at Westminster but virtual autonomy at home).
iScotland's best hope is that iUK goes into Depression
iUK!!!
There it is. iUK.
Unless the UK Economy tanks post Brexit none of your warnings will have any impact. Whether it is true or not, the card will have been played over Brexit and proved to be wrong. All the voter will see is a whole heap of warnings - almost identical to Brexit warnings - and none of them will be believed, No could easily retreat to little more than its core funny handshake voter base.
I have consistently said that I expected Remain to win and frankly expected them to win fairly easily given all the advantages that they had.
Now, at the end of days (according to Alastair at least) I have changed my mind. I think Leave are going to win. Just. Or Remain. Not sure. Yeah, Leave. 52:48.
Gulp.
Don't think so.
Got an awful feeling Ruth is going to get the better of Boris tonight.
Mr. Tyson, it's because Remain thought they'd just stroll to victory, treating people like fools (Cameron pretending his deal was worth a damn), then coming out with such hyperbole (global war and the end of civilisation) they screwed their own credibility.
I'm also very surprised it's so close.
Edited extra bit: Mr. Observer, an astute point on immigration.
Centrica have written pro-Remain to their 37k staff - Sky
These letters might not seem very important because the number of people receiving each one is tiny compared to the electorate as a whole.
But they all add up - and if the result is very tight then if they cumulatively move even one or two hundred thousand votes they could make a difference.
Again, it smacks of the Establishment looking patrician at best, desperate to cling onto their power at worst.
In many cases, I expect the response will be "Fuck you, Boss, I'm voting Leave...."
Seems to me a large part of the Leave motivation is "Fuck you" to everybody. Fair enough, people have that prerogative. What will stick in my craw is any subsequent moaning and whingeing from the same people if it goes tits up - the one thing that absolutely nobody can claim in this referendum is that they were not warned about what the possible consequences of Brexit. If people still want to go ahead that's their decision but any buyer's remorse is going to fall on deaf ears.
Because they feel their elected betters have said "Fuck you" to the voters, time after time.
Many of these people feel that they have no meaningful say on things that matter to them. Things such as migration into their country. Rightly so. They have been howled down as "racists" by a political elite for whom that is easier than entering into a reasoned debate.
Now they have a chance to stick it to the Man. Don't be surprised if they take that chance. Yes, it may be nihilistic. But hell, it will feel SO DAMNED GOOD.
Won't affect me either way so I have no problem if they want to "stick it to the man" just so long as they don't start whining about it later if they discover Farage and Boris have sold them a pup.
Am I the only one thinking the turnout is being overblown a bit? As far as I see it I'm not sure turnout is going to be much higher than the GE, if that.
Scotland has lost 100K voters since the election? Weird. And a feather in the scales for Leave. Probably. Depending who has come off the register. Oh never mind.
Centrica have written pro-Remain to their 37k staff - Sky
These letters might not seem very important because the number of people receiving each one is tiny compared to the electorate as a whole.
But they all add up - and if the result is very tight then if they cumulatively move even one or two hundred thousand votes they could make a difference.
Again, it smacks of the Establishment looking patrician at best, desperate to cling onto their power at worst.
In many cases, I expect the response will be "Fuck you, Boss, I'm voting Leave...."
Seems to me a large part of the Leave motivation is "Fuck you" to everybody. Fair enough, people have that prerogative. What will stick in my craw is any subsequent moaning and whingeing from the same people if it goes tits up - the one thing that absolutely nobody can claim in this referendum is that they were not warned about what the possible consequences of Brexit. If people still want to go ahead that's their decision but any buyer's remorse is going to fall on deaf ears.
And what sort of tits up do you expect , Mr. T? Someone, and I am sorry I forget who, said on where this morning that the FTSE could fall, by 10%, the value of my house could drop by 10% and my income could drop by 10%. Well, I have been through all of those in the past, and worse, and each time I have survived. I am not prepared to be scared by such stories.
Goldman Sachs say we must stay in else financial and economic armageddon will descend on us. The chairman of JCB say we can not only survive but thrive. Which would you say is more worthy of belief?
You may well be able to cope with a 10% fall in income, many others won't. And should it be across the board, that means significantly less tax take, which also means higher borrowing, higher taxes and more cuts. Again, the people most affected will be those at the bottom who Boris and Mike are supposed to be speaking for these days, having completely ignored them up to now.
Sorry, Mr. O., but when my income dropped by a damn sight more than 10%, I could not afford it either (in 1995 my wife and I went through a period in which we had a disposable income of £20 per month and a two year old toddler). There is nothing that is being threatened that I haven't lived through before. I see no reason to be scared by the stories being put about.
Fair enough. Hopefully it will work out for you again and for the millions of others who are likely to be affected.
The maths are awful for Remain. As I said this morning.
Electorate 46 Million
NI, Scotland, London = 10 Million
Wales and Rest of England = 36 Million.
Even if Scotland/NI/London vote 70-30 remain a 55.5-44.5 leave vote in Rest of England is enough.
Outside the university cities like Oxford, Norwich, Exeter and a few other Cities like Brighton & Manchester (city not greater) where will the votes for Remain come from?
Sorry but Remain have had it.
'Kin hell, even IOS would blush at the hubris you're displaying.
Hubris? I was being kind and working on 100% turnout.
If you want hubris plug the yougov age/turnout figures in and it gets even worse for remain.
Am I the only one thinking the turnout is being overblown a bit? As far as I see it I'm not sure turnout is going to be much higher than the GE, if that.
Guido's misinterpreting his own numbers there, the electorate has grown by 150k since GE2015. The 2 million figure is since December 2015, which dropped by that amount under the re-registration exercise last year.
Good to see so many people enthused though, the only thing worse than a close result would be a close result on a low turnout.
I have consistently said that I expected Remain to win and frankly expected them to win fairly easily given all the advantages that they had.
Now, at the end of days (according to Alastair at least) I have changed my mind. I think Leave are going to win. Just. Or Remain. Not sure. Yeah, Leave. 52:48.
Gulp.
PS how do you think BREXIT would play out in Scotland?
I think Sturgeon is bluffing. She won't call indyref 2 on the basis of a future iScotland joining the EU because that really WOULD mean frontiers at Berwick and a true currency nightmare. so even if she could negotiate the legal obstacles to a second vote (very hard as the UK would at the same time be thrashing out its own EU divorce) she'd likely lose her next referendum, too.
But I have called Scottish politics wrong, in the recent past. And she would be under severe pressure from frothier Nats to stage another plebiscite.
In terms of Scottish Independence, a Brexit vote puts Unionists in a rather difficult situation. They need to hope that the fallout post Leave is bad enough to confirm their dire warnings. If it is not, and I think it will be relatively benign, then the likelihood of another Project Fear working in a second Indyref becomes very unlikely.
That's not good for the Establishment. Hope the economy tanks or accept Scotland goes her own way. A poorer Britain or a broken Britain, if you will.
Yep, that sounds about right to me. Though if things really tank post-Brexit, Scots may well conclude that they have very little left to lose anyway. If English voters can vote against their economic self-interest, why not Scots?
Yes, I think you are right. A Leave vote is the ideal scenario for Scottish Independence. If the economy doesn't tank, the warnings will fail next referendum, if it does tank, there is going to be no reason not to jettison the rest of the UK. Its a proper win/win.
The maths are awful for Remain. As I said this morning.
Electorate 46 Million
NI, Scotland, London = 10 Million
Wales and Rest of England = 36 Million.
Even if Scotland/NI/London vote 70-30 remain a 55.5-44.5 leave vote in Rest of England is enough.
Outside the university cities like Oxford, Norwich, Exeter and a few other Cities like Brighton & Manchester (city not greater) where will the votes for Remain come from?
Sorry but Remain have had it.
'Kin hell, even IOS would blush at the hubris you're displaying.
Hubris? I was being kind and working on 100% turnout.
If you want hubris plug the yougov age/turnout figures in and it gets even worse for remain.
maths dosent lie
The maths that says leave are slightly ahead, without NI or Gibraltar included?
The maths are awful for Remain. As I said this morning.
Electorate 46 Million
NI, Scotland, London = 10 Million
Wales and Rest of England = 36 Million.
Even if Scotland/NI/London vote 70-30 remain a 55.5-44.5 leave vote in Rest of England is enough.
Outside the university cities like Oxford, Norwich, Exeter and a few other Cities like Brighton & Manchester (city not greater) where will the votes for Remain come from?
Sorry but Remain have had it.
'Kin hell, even IOS would blush at the hubris you're displaying.
Hubris? I was being kind and working on 100% turnout.
If you want hubris plug the yougov age/turnout figures in and it gets even worse for remain.
maths dosent lie
You wrote Sorry but Remain have had it.
Considering your hyperbole the other day that 27% of the electorate have already voted for Leave by post, I'm finding your posts really funny.
I think she will look to play long. She will say that we need to wait to see what deal that the UK gets and whether it remains a part of the Single Market or not. She will also want to see if the oil price improves although I fear that ship has sailed.
Brexit creates a whole new set of problems for Sindy. England remains by far our largest market and we need a single market with England far, far more than we do with rEU. Nicola will not want another referendum unless she is very sure she is going to win and the polling on that at the moment is bad.
But you are right. The pressure on her would be severe.
Brexit only causes problems for Independence if the dire warnings turn out to have any merit. If the economy does not collapse, those who claimed the experts were talking nonsense will be proven right and that will be a massive boost for Independence.
If the UK prospers outside the EU then there is almost zero chance the Scots would risk all that, to join the EU, and take up the euro, and suffer frontiers and tariffs along Hadrian's Wall. Plus, iSotland in the EU would mean a much more distant, heavy handed government from Brussels, compared to the sweet deal they get right now in London (a large bloc of MPs voting at Westminster but virtual autonomy at home).
iScotland's best hope is that iUK goes into Depression
iUK!!!
There it is. iUK.
I note you start with "If the UK prospers". That is a big if. And since the IMF, George Soros, business leaders, economists, are all saying that we won't, some like Branson saying it will be catastrophic...catastrophic..... I just don't get it. Do you know something that they don't? Is there some economic porthole to a different set of forecasts that only people like Nigel Lawson, Farage, and Boris Johnson can see?
Establishment, Elite and Experts are thrown at anyone with any professional background coming out in favour of remain.
I tell you, next time I go to my Doctors, I want someone who is a Doctor. I don't want to be treated by Nigel Lawson or Nigel Farage claiming they know better.
Many thanks to the fellow who dropped by my prize from the PB London Mayor NoJam. The combination of maps and politics in book form has been squirrelled away from my partner who would not approve. Some 5 years ago I came Joint top in the Eastleigh by election NoJam, though my GE and Sindy entrances were less good.
PBers of a delicate constitution may need to take heed; my NoJam Brexit was:
Leave on 41.57, turnout 67.34%
It is Foxys little pungent dropping rather than a product of Jacks ARSE4EU, but nevertheless...
Am I the only one thinking the turnout is being overblown a bit? As far as I see it I'm not sure turnout is going to be much higher than the GE, if that.
Guido's misinterpreting his own numbers there, the electorate has grown by 150k since GE2015. The 2 million figure is since December 2015, which dropped by that amount under the re-registration exercise last year.
Good to see so many people enthused though, the only thing worse than a close result would be a close result on a low turnout.
I have consistently said that I expected Remain to win and frankly expected them to win fairly easily given all the advantages that they had.
Now, at the end of days (according to Alastair at least) I have changed my mind. I think Leave are going to win. Just. Or Remain. Not sure. Yeah, Leave. 52:48.
Gulp.
PS how do you think BREXIT would play out in Scotland?
I think Sturgeon is bluffing. She won't call indyref 2 on the basis of a future iScotland joining the EU because that really WOULD mean frontiers at Berwick and a true currency nightmare. so even if she could negotiate the legal obstacles to a second vote (very hard as the UK would at the same time be thrashing out its own EU divorce) she'd likely lose her next referendum, too.
But I have called Scottish politics wrong, in the recent past. And she would be under severe pressure from frothier Nats to stage another plebiscite.
In terms of Scottish Independence, a Brexit vote puts Unionists in a rather difficult situation. They need to hope that the fallout post Leave is bad enough to confirm their dire warnings. If it is not, and I think it will be relatively benign, then the likelihood of another Project Fear working in a second Indyref becomes very unlikely.
That's not good for the Establishment. Hope the economy tanks or accept Scotland goes her own way. A poorer Britain or a broken Britain, if you will.
Yep, that sounds about right to me. Though if things really tank post-Brexit, Scots may well conclude that they have very little left to lose anyway. If English voters can vote against their economic self-interest, why not Scots?
Yes, I think you are right. A Leave vote is the ideal scenario for Scottish Independence. If the economy doesn't tank, the warnings will fail next referendum, if it does tank, there is going to be no reason not to jettison the rest of the UK. Its a proper win/win.
If Scotland keeps England in the EU though as I think is now more likely then nationalist feeling Mau shift south of the border
I have consistently said that I expected Remain to win and frankly expected them to win fairly easily given all the advantages that they had.
Now, at the end of days (according to Alastair at least) I have changed my mind. I think Leave are going to win. Just. Or Remain. Not sure. Yeah, Leave. 52:48.
Gulp.
PS how do you think BREXIT would play out in Scotland?
I think Sturgeon is bluffing. She won't call indyref 2 on the basis of a future iScotland joining the EU because that really WOULD mean frontiers at Berwick and a true currency nightmare. so even if she could negotiate the legal obstacles to a second vote (very hard as the UK would at the same time be thrashing out its own EU divorce) she'd likely lose her next referendum, too.
But I have called Scottish politics wrong, in the recent past. And she would be under severe pressure from frothier Nats to stage another plebiscite.
In terms of Scottish Independence, a Brexit vote puts Unionists in a rather difficult situation. They need to hope that the fallout post Leave is bad enough to confirm their dire warnings. If it is not, and I think it will be relatively benign, then the likelihood of another Project Fear working in a second Indyref becomes very unlikely.
That's not good for the Establishment. Hope the economy tanks or accept Scotland goes her own way. A poorer Britain or a broken Britain, if you will.
Yep, that sounds about right to me. Though if things really tank post-Brexit, Scots may well conclude that they have very little left to lose anyway. If English voters can vote against their economic self-interest, why not Scots?
Yes, I think you are right. A Leave vote is the ideal scenario for Scottish Independence. If the economy doesn't tank, the warnings will fail next referendum, if it does tank, there is going to be no reason not to jettison the rest of the UK. Its a proper win/win.
Yep, that's how I see it. Experts can be safely ignored in our new post-truth world. I don't think it is a huge coincidence that every Unionist big hitter in Scotland is on the Remain side. They know what's coming when we Leave.
Am I the only one thinking the turnout is being overblown a bit? As far as I see it I'm not sure turnout is going to be much higher than the GE, if that.
Scotland has lost 100K voters since the election? Weird. And a feather in the scales for Leave. Probably. Depending who has come off the register. Oh never mind.
EU Nationals come off, the EU vote isn't that interesting, so lots of people haven't been incentivised to go on. Its a good indicator for a sub 55% turnout in Scotland.
Am I the only one thinking the turnout is being overblown a bit? As far as I see it I'm not sure turnout is going to be much higher than the GE, if that.
Scotland has lost 100K voters since the election? Weird. And a feather in the scales for Leave. Probably. Depending who has come off the register. Oh never mind.
EU Nationals come off, the EU vote isn't that interesting, so lots of people haven't been incentivised to go on. Its a good indicator for a sub 55% turnout in Scotland.
There must be massive election fatigue up there as well, surely.
Am I the only one thinking the turnout is being overblown a bit? As far as I see it I'm not sure turnout is going to be much higher than the GE, if that.
Guido's misinterpreting his own numbers there, the electorate has grown by 150k since GE2015. The 2 million figure is since December 2015, which dropped by that amount under the re-registration exercise last year.
Good to see so many people enthused though, the only thing worse than a close result would be a close result on a low turnout.
Yes he corrected the comparison after I posted (I realised he was wrong about that but the figures are right). The point stands that the vast majority of those who registered were people probably who were registered at the GE anyway.
I have consistently said that I expected Remain to win and frankly expected them to win fairly easily given all the advantages that they had.
Now, at the end of days (according to Alastair at least) I have changed my mind. I think Leave are going to win. Just. Or Remain. Not sure. Yeah, Leave. 52:48.
Gulp.
Don't think so.
Got an awful feeling Ruth is going to get the better of Boris tonight.
How is she going to go down? How many people in England will know who she is? Is there not a danger she'll sound like another Scot telling us what to do? She'd be wise not to say "vote to stay in or Scotland might leave the UK."
Many thanks to the fellow who dropped by my prize from the PB London Mayor NoJam. The combination of maps and politics in book form has been squirrelled away from my partner who would not approve. Some 5 years ago I came Joint top in the Eastleigh by election NoJam, though my GE and Sindy entrances were less good.
PBers of a delicate constitution may need to take heed; my NoJam Brexit was:
Leave on 41.57, turnout 67.34%
It is Foxys little pungent dropping rather than a product of Jacks ARSE4EU, but nevertheless...
That was a staggeringly good prediction Fox that you brought in for London Mayor. Do you have access to a time machine by chance?
The maths are awful for Remain. As I said this morning.
Electorate 46 Million
NI, Scotland, London = 10 Million
Wales and Rest of England = 36 Million.
Even if Scotland/NI/London vote 70-30 remain a 55.5-44.5 leave vote in Rest of England is enough.
Outside the university cities like Oxford, Norwich, Exeter and a few other Cities like Brighton & Manchester (city not greater) where will the votes for Remain come from?
Sorry but Remain have had it.
Rubbish, the Kent poll posted earlier showed Remain winning Tunbridge Wells, Tonbridge and Malling, Sevenoaks, Canterbury and Gravesham. Yes Leave won more Kent seats overall but results like that should be enough to keep Leave under 55% across England even if it wins a majority in England thus allowing Scotland and London to give Remain a narrow lead across the UK
And I will raise you with remain wont get anywhere near the 70% worst case I assumed in those places. Probably nearer 60-40
Centrica have written pro-Remain to their 37k staff - Sky
These letters might not seem very important because the number of people receiving each one is tiny compared to the electorate as a whole.
But they all add up - and if the result is very tight then if they cumulatively move even one or two hundred thousand votes they could make a difference.
Again, it smacks of the Establishment looking patrician at best, desperate to cling onto their power at worst.
In many cases, I expect the response will be "Fuck you, Boss, I'm voting Leave...."
Seems to me a large part of the Leave motivation is "Fuck you" to everybody. Fair enough, people have that prerogative. What will stick in my craw is any subsequent moaning and whingeing from the same people if it goes tits up - the one thing that absolutely nobody can claim in this referendum is that they were not warned about what the possible consequences of Brexit. If people still want to go ahead that's their decision but any buyer's remorse is going to fall on deaf ears.
And what sort of tits up do you expect , Mr. T? Someone, and I am sorry I forget who, said on where this morning that the FTSE could fall, by 10%, the value of my house could drop by 10% and my income could drop by 10%. Well, I have been through all of those in the past, and worse, and each time I have survived. I am not prepared to be scared by such stories.
Goldman Sachs say we must stay in else financial and economic armageddon will descend on us. The chairman of JCB say we can not only survive but thrive. Which would you say is more worthy of belief?
I was thinking more in terms of workers at Nissan, Centrica, Airbus saying "fuck you" to the bosses (as MarqueeMark put it) and voting Leave. Fine if they do but if Brexit ultimately means they lose their jobs sympathy will be thin on the ground.
f
I understand your point of view, but I am less convinced by the idea that Centrica will leave the UK (after all it is British Gas under another name), or indeed Nissan and Airbus for that matter. We heard all the same stories in late nineties when the debate was whether we should join the Euro.
Am I the only one thinking the turnout is being overblown a bit? As far as I see it I'm not sure turnout is going to be much higher than the GE, if that.
Scotland has lost 100K voters since the election? Weird. And a feather in the scales for Leave. Probably. Depending who has come off the register. Oh never mind.
EU Nationals come off, the EU vote isn't that interesting, so lots of people haven't been incentivised to go on. Its a good indicator for a sub 55% turnout in Scotland.
The last poll I saw on Sunday had 77% certain to vote in Scotland, even higher than the 73% across the UK
Am I the only one thinking the turnout is being overblown a bit? As far as I see it I'm not sure turnout is going to be much higher than the GE, if that.
Scotland has lost 100K voters since the election? Weird. And a feather in the scales for Leave. Probably. Depending who has come off the register. Oh never mind.
EU Nationals come off, the EU vote isn't that interesting, so lots of people haven't been incentivised to go on. Its a good indicator for a sub 55% turnout in Scotland.
Maybe's aye, maybe's no as King Kenny used to say. It may be that those who have come off the register probably weren't going to vote anyway so the turnout of those who are left is proportionally higher.
But I do think and have repeatedly said that the complete lack of a campaign up here by either side is unlikely to drive turnout. I think Remain have missed a trick probably worth 100-200K net personally. It is almost the safe seat mentality which is completely irrelevant in this case.
Am I the only one thinking the turnout is being overblown a bit? As far as I see it I'm not sure turnout is going to be much higher than the GE, if that.
Scotland has lost 100K voters since the election? Weird. And a feather in the scales for Leave. Probably. Depending who has come off the register. Oh never mind.
EU Nationals come off, the EU vote isn't that interesting, so lots of people haven't been incentivised to go on. Its a good indicator for a sub 55% turnout in Scotland.
The last poll I saw on Sunday had 77% certain to vote in Scotland, even higher than the 73% across the UK
Self-reporting of likelihood to vote is always overstated.
Am I the only one thinking the turnout is being overblown a bit? As far as I see it I'm not sure turnout is going to be much higher than the GE, if that.
Scotland has lost 100K voters since the election? Weird. And a feather in the scales for Leave. Probably. Depending who has come off the register. Oh never mind.
EU Nationals come off, the EU vote isn't that interesting, so lots of people haven't been incentivised to go on. Its a good indicator for a sub 55% turnout in Scotland.
Also people fleeing the SNP tyranny and relocating in happier parts.
I also wonder if more Scots might be willing to wait and see. If we Remain, no change (as it's perceived). If we Leave and it's great, fine. If we Leave and it's rubbish, they can try again for leaving the UK.
Centrica have written pro-Remain to their 37k staff - Sky
These letters might not seem very important because the number of people receiving each one is tiny compared to the electorate as a whole.
But they all add up - and if the result is very tight then if they cumulatively move even one or two hundred thousand votes they could make a difference.
Again, it smacks of the Establishment looking patrician at best, desperate to cling onto their power at worst.
In many cases, I expect the response will be "Fuck you, Boss, I'm voting Leave...."
Seems to me a large part of the Leave motivation is "Fuck you" to everybody. Fair enough, people have that prerogative. What will stick in my craw is any subsequent moaning and whingeing from the same people if it goes tits up - the one thing that absolutely nobody can claim in this referendum is that they were not warned about what the possible consequences of Brexit. If people still want to go ahead that's their decision but any buyer's remorse is going to fall on deaf ears.
And what sort of tits up do you expect , Mr. T? Someone, and I am sorry I forget who, said on where this morning that the FTSE could fall, by 10%, the value of my house could drop by 10% and my income could drop by 10%. Well, I have been through all of those in the past, and worse, and each time I have survived. I am not prepared to be scared by such stories.
Goldman Sachs say we must stay in else financial and economic armageddon will descend on us. The chairman of JCB say we can not only survive but thrive. Which would you say is more worthy of belief?
I was thinking more in terms of workers at Nissan, Centrica, Airbus saying "fuck you" to the bosses (as MarqueeMark put it) and voting Leave. Fine if they do but if Brexit ultimately means they lose their jobs sympathy will be thin on the ground.
f
I understand your point of view, but I am less convinced by the idea that Centrica will leave the UK (after all it is British Gas under another name), or indeed Nissan and Airbus for that matter. We heard all the same stories in late nineties when the debate was whether we should join the Euro.
What the EU is really afraid of is the UK existing and the world saying 'bovvered'
@DavidL I don't think a Leave vote would be the end of days. It would be less important for the decision itself and more important for how the decision had been made.
It would be a terrible blow to the essential decency of this nation, a blow against openness to the outside world and a blow against any rational weighing of evidence. It would mean that xenophobic playing on public fears had been successful. It would mean that the confederacy of dunces tallied over 50% of the voting public. All that would be a terrible indictment of the British people.
I would be fearful for the future of the country, given the many entirely unnecessary risks that Britain would now be running, but more than that I would feel a deep sense of shame for the bad way in which my country had made a bad decision. I expect that one way or another Britain would make the best of a bad job if it voted to Leave, but it would be a bad job.
Centrica have written pro-Remain to their 37k staff - Sky
These letters might not seem very important because the number of people receiving each one is tiny compared to the electorate as a whole.
But they all add up - and if the result is very tight then if they cumulatively move even one or two hundred thousand votes they could make a difference.
Again, it smacks of the Establishment looking patrician at best, desperate to cling onto their power at worst.
In many cases, I expect the response will be "Fuck you, Boss, I'm voting Leave...."
Seems to me a large part of the Leave motivation is "Fuck you" to everybody. Fair enough, people have that prerogative. What will stick in my craw is any subsequent moaning and whingeing from the same people if it goes tits up - the one thing that absolutely nobody can claim in this referendum is that they were not warned about what the possible consequences of Brexit. If people still want to go ahead that's their decision but any buyer's remorse is going to fall on deaf ears.
And what sort of tits up do you expect , Mr. T? Someone, and I am sorry I forget who, said on where this morning that the FTSE could fall, by 10%, the value of my house could drop by 10% and my income could drop by 10%. Well, I have been through all of those in the past, and worse, and each time I have survived. I am not prepared to be scared by such stories.
Goldman Sachs say we must stay in else financial and economic armageddon will descend on us. The chairman of JCB say we can not only survive but thrive. Which would you say is more worthy of belief?
I was thinking more in terms of workers at Nissan, Centrica, Airbus saying "fuck you" to the bosses (as MarqueeMark put it) and voting Leave. Fine if they do but if Brexit ultimately means they lose their jobs sympathy will be thin on the ground.
f
I understand your point of view, but I am less convinced by the idea that Centrica will leave the UK (after all it is British Gas under another name), or indeed Nissan and Airbus for that matter. We heard all the same stories in late nineties when the debate was whether we should join the Euro.
The Airbus UK Chairman said last year that Airbus would not change its investment plans if the UK left the EU.
The maths are awful for Remain. As I said this morning.
Electorate 46 Million
NI, Scotland, London = 10 Million
Wales and Rest of England = 36 Million.
Even if Scotland/NI/London vote 70-30 remain a 55.5-44.5 leave vote in Rest of England is enough.
Outside the university cities like Oxford, Norwich, Exeter and a few other Cities like Brighton & Manchester (city not greater) where will the votes for Remain come from?
Sorry but Remain have had it.
'Kin hell, even IOS would blush at the hubris you're displaying.
Started posting about a month ago, will never be heard from again if Remain win I suspect, like the guy who kept telling us Romney had the last POTUS election in the bag in 2012 then disappeared in a puff of smoke!
Off topic but I notice from that page these are the most viewed articles in the Telegraph:
NEWS MOST VIEWED 1. Summer solstice 2016: First day of summer brings 'strawberry moon' – but what is the significance of the year's longest day? 2. EU referendum poll latest tracker and odds 3. 'Sea monster' spotted on Google Earth 4. Man dies in cinema while watching The Conjuring 2 – and body goes missing 5. Actress Selma Blair 'carried off plane on stretcher after midair outburst'
More National Enquirer than the Telegraph we used to know.
I note you start with "If the UK prospers". That is a big if.
Really??
I would suggest that history is overwhelmingly against you.
When, in the last 10 centuries of freedom and independence has England/Britain NOT prospered, relatively?
The only time she had to survive as a free trading nation - between 1945 and 1975. Before then she prospered down the barrel of a gun, since 1975 she's been in the EU. Her only period trying to fend for herself, did not go very well.
Of course, its much more complex than that but it's one answer to the question.
@DavidL I don't think a Leave vote would be the end of days. It would be less important for the decision itself and more important for how the decision had been made.
It would be a terrible blow to the essential decency of this nation, a blow against openness to the outside world and a blow against any rational weighing of evidence. It would mean that xenophobic playing on public fears had been successful. It would mean that the confederacy of dunces tallied over 50% of the voting public. All that would be a terrible indictment of the British people.
I would be fearful for the future of the country, given the many entirely unnecessary risks that Britain would now be running, but more than that I would feel a deep sense of shame for the bad way in which my country had made a bad decision. I expect that one way or another Britain would make the best of a bad job if it voted to Leave, but it would be a bad job.
This is what I thought a week ago, before Remain waited less than a day to use the murder of an MP as a campaign tool. You should see the leaflet below, which states "the death of Jo Cox is just the start" if the other side wins. Both sides have thoroughly trashed any trace of decency they have. You can not pretend our side has the moral high ground any more.
@DavidL I don't think a Leave vote would be the end of days. It would be less important for the decision itself and more important for how the decision had been made.
It would be a terrible blow to the essential decency of this nation, a blow against openness to the outside world and a blow against any rational weighing of evidence. It would mean that xenophobic playing on public fears had been successful. It would mean that the confederacy of dunces tallied over 50% of the voting public. All that would be a terrible indictment of the British people.
I would be fearful for the future of the country, given the many entirely unnecessary risks that Britain would now be running, but more than that I would feel a deep sense of shame for the bad way in which my country had made a bad decision. I expect that one way or another Britain would make the best of a bad job if it voted to Leave, but it would be a bad job.
I was only gently teasing Alastair. The campaigns for both sides have been chronically poor. The 3m jobs lie, the emergency budget, the £4,600 per family were every bit as ridiculous as the £350m a week and no more immigration fantasies.
Having lived through Sindy and this I am really not a fan of referenda. I hope we don't see another one for some considerable time whatever the result.
Am I the only one thinking the turnout is being overblown a bit? As far as I see it I'm not sure turnout is going to be much higher than the GE, if that.
Scotland has lost 100K voters since the election? Weird. And a feather in the scales for Leave. Probably. Depending who has come off the register. Oh never mind.
EU Nationals come off, the EU vote isn't that interesting, so lots of people haven't been incentivised to go on. Its a good indicator for a sub 55% turnout in Scotland.
The last poll I saw on Sunday had 77% certain to vote in Scotland, even higher than the 73% across the UK
Self-reporting of likelihood to vote is always overstated.
Maybe but that does not change the higher turnout ratio of Scotland to England, Scotland also had a higher turnout at the general election
Pfff. This is such mewling, self pitying guff. "A terrible indictment of the British people" that they prefer to leave an overweening trading bloc, and take control of their own borders?
Democratic independence of any country on earth = freedom.
I don't disagree with you....in the long term we'll be OK whether we stay in or go out.
But, despite being very fit, resting heart rate at 41, able to do 100 push ups continuously, can run half a marathon....my date of death is only 24 years away...and I am in my forties. I don't want more than half of them blighted by the uncertainty of this referendum, and then the other half catching up to where we should have been.
Centrica have written pro-Remain to their 37k staff - Sky
These letters might not seem very important because the number of people receiving each one is tiny compared to the electorate as a whole.
But they all add up - and if the result is very tight then if they cumulatively move even one or two hundred thousand votes they could make a difference.
Again, it smacks of the Establishment looking patrician at best, desperate to cling onto their power at worst.
In many cases, I expect the response will be "Fuck you, Boss, I'm voting Leave...."
Seems to me a large part of the Leave motivation is "Fuck you" to everybody. Fair enough, people have that prerogative. What will stick in my craw is any subsequent moaning and whingeing from the same people if it goes tits up - the one thing that absolutely nobody can claim in this referendum is that they were not warned about what the possible consequences of Brexit. If people still want to go ahead that's their decision but any buyer's remorse is going to fall on deaf ears.
And what sort of tits up do you expect , Mr. T? Someone, and I am sorry I forget who, said on where this morning that the FTSE could fall, by 10%, the value of my house could drop by 10% and my income could drop by 10%. Well, I have been through all of those in the past, and worse, and each time I have survived. I am not prepared to be scared by such stories.
Goldman Sachs say we must stay in else financial and economic armageddon will descend on us. The chairman of JCB say we can not only survive but thrive. Which would you say is more worthy of belief?
I was thinking more in terms of workers at Nissan, Centrica, Airbus saying "fuck you" to the bosses (as MarqueeMark put it) and voting Leave. Fine if they do but if Brexit ultimately means they lose their jobs sympathy will be thin on the ground.
f
I understand your point of view, but I am less convinced by the idea that Centrica will leave the UK (after all it is British Gas under another name), or indeed Nissan and Airbus for that matter. We heard all the same stories in late nineties when the debate was whether we should join the Euro.
The Airbus UK Chairman said last year that Airbus would not change its investment plans if the UK left the EU.
AIrbus is one of the safest companies for post-Brexit investment. Airplane wings are a very specialist skill and there are very few other locations for that expertise than the UK. Investment in other industries will be affected quite considerably.
The maths are awful for Remain. As I said this morning.
Electorate 46 Million
NI, Scotland, London = 10 Million
Wales and Rest of England = 36 Million.
Even if Scotland/NI/London vote 70-30 remain a 55.5-44.5 leave vote in Rest of England is enough.
Outside the university cities like Oxford, Norwich, Exeter and a few other Cities like Brighton & Manchester (city not greater) where will the votes for Remain come from?
Sorry but Remain have had it.
Rubbish, the Kent poll posted earlier showed Remain winning Tunbridge Wells, Tonbridge and Malling, Sevenoaks, Canterbury and Gravesham. Yes Leave won more Kent seats overall but results like that should be enough to keep Leave under 55% across England even if it wins a majority in England thus allowing Scotland and London to give Remain a narrow lead across the UK
And I will raise you with remain wont get anywhere near the 70% worst case I assumed in those places. Probably nearer 60-40
I will also argue Leave will be much nearer 50% than 55% in England and Wales if they break 50% at all, in Scotland Remain will certainly get more than 60%
Mr. Tyson, longevity can be dashed hard to predict. In the Middle Ages life expectancy was atrocious, but Henry III, Edward I and Edward III all lived very long lives (Edward II didn't, but that was due to incompetence on his part).
I have consistently said that I expected Remain to win and frankly expected them to win fairly easily given all the advantages that they had.
Now, at the end of days (according to Alastair at least) I have changed my mind. I think Leave are going to win. Just. Or Remain. Not sure. Yeah, Leave. 52:48.
Gulp.
PS how do you think BREXIT would play out in Scotland?
I think Sturgeon is bluffing. She won't call indyref 2 on the basis of a future iScotland joining the EU because that really WOULD mean frontiers at Berwick and a true currency nightmare. so even if she could negotiate the legal obstacles to a second vote (very hard as the UK would at the same time be thrashing out its own EU divorce) she'd likely lose her next referendum, too.
But I have called Scottish politics wrong, in the recent past. And she would be under severe pressure from frothier Nats to stage another plebiscite.
In terms of Scottish Independence, a Brexit vote puts Unionists in a rather difficult situation. They need to hope that the fallout post Leave is bad enough to confirm their dire warnings. If it is not, and I think it will be relatively benign, then the likelihood of another Project Fear working in a second Indyref becomes very unlikely.
That's not good for the Establishment. Hope the economy tanks or accept Scotland goes her own way. A poorer Britain or a broken Britain, if you will.
Yep, that sounds about right to me. Though if things really tank post-Brexit, Scots may well conclude that they have very little left to lose anyway. If English voters can vote against their economic self-interest, why not Scots?
Yes, I think you are right. A Leave vote is the ideal scenario for Scottish Independence. If the economy doesn't tank, the warnings will fail next referendum, if it does tank, there is going to be no reason not to jettison the rest of the UK. Its a proper win/win.
Yep, that's how I see it. Experts can be safely ignored in our new post-truth world. I don't think it is a huge coincidence that every Unionist big hitter in Scotland is on the Remain side. They know what's coming when we Leave.
Centrica have written pro-Remain to their 37k staff - Sky
These letters might not seem very important because the number of people receiving each one is tiny compared to the electorate as a whole.
But they all add up - and if the result is very tight then if they cumulatively move even one or two hundred thousand votes they could make a difference.
Again, it smacks of the Establishment looking patrician at best, desperate to cling onto their power at worst.
In many cases, I expect the response will be "Fuck you, Boss, I'm voting Leave...."
Seems to me a large part of the Leave motivation is "Fuck you" to everybody. Fair enough, people have that prerogative. What will stick in my craw is any subsequent moaning and whingeing from the same people if it goes tits up - the one thing that absolutely nobody can claim in this referendum is that they were not warned about what the possible consequences of Brexit. If people still want to go ahead that's their decision but any buyer's remorse is going to fall on deaf ears.
And what sort of tits up do you expect , Mr. T? Someone, and I am sorry I forget who, said on where this morning that the FTSE could fall, by 10%, the value of my house could drop by 10% and my income could drop by 10%. Well, I have been through all of those in the past, and worse, and each time I have survived. I am not prepared to be scared by such stories.
Goldman Sachs say we must stay in else financial and economic armageddon will descend on us. The chairman of JCB say we can not only survive but thrive. Which would you say is more worthy of belief?
I was thinking more in terms of workers at Nissan, Centrica, Airbus saying "fuck you" to the bosses (as MarqueeMark put it) and voting Leave. Fine if they do but if Brexit ultimately means they lose their jobs sympathy will be thin on the ground.
f
I understand your point of view, but I am less convinced by the idea that Centrica will leave the UK (after all it is British Gas under another name), or indeed Nissan and Airbus for that matter. We heard all the same stories in late nineties when the debate was whether we should join the Euro.
I don't know either, I hope not, I was really trying to point out to MarqueeMark that it might people feel great to stick 2 fingers up to everybody and they have a perfect right to do so so long as they are prepared to accept any subsequent consequences.
Off topic but I notice from that page these are the most viewed articles in the Telegraph:
NEWS MOST VIEWED 1. Summer solstice 2016: First day of summer brings 'strawberry moon' – but what is the significance of the year's longest day? 2. EU referendum poll latest tracker and odds 3. 'Sea monster' spotted on Google Earth 4. Man dies in cinema while watching The Conjuring 2 – and body goes missing 5. Actress Selma Blair 'carried off plane on stretcher after midair outburst'
More National Enquirer than the Telegraph we used to know.
Welcome to the Telegraph's new "digital first" strategy. In other words, clickbait headlines, lists over several pages and celebrity articles that wouldnt look out of place in the Mail. Need to get the page views for the advertisers you see. A shadow of its former self.
The maths are awful for Remain. As I said this morning.
Electorate 46 Million
NI, Scotland, London = 10 Million
Wales and Rest of England = 36 Million.
Even if Scotland/NI/London vote 70-30 remain a 55.5-44.5 leave vote in Rest of England is enough.
Outside the university cities like Oxford, Norwich, Exeter and a few other Cities like Brighton & Manchester (city not greater) where will the votes for Remain come from?
Sorry but Remain have had it.
Rubbish, the Kent poll posted earlier showed Remain winning Tunbridge Wells, Tonbridge and Malling, Sevenoaks, Canterbury and Gravesham. Yes Leave won more Kent seats overall but results like that should be enough to keep Leave under 55% across England even if it wins a majority in England thus allowing Scotland and London to give Remain a narrow lead across the UK
And I will raise you with remain wont get anywhere near the 70% worst case I assumed in those places. Probably nearer 60-40
I will also argue Leave will be much nearer 50% than 55% in England and Wales if they break 50% at all, in Scotland Remain will certainly get more than 60%
Scotland I agree, but NI and London will bring down the average.
If you think rest of england and wales excl london will get below 50% you are being very optimistic to say the least.
@DavidL I don't think a Leave vote would be the end of days. It would be less important for the decision itself and more important for how the decision had been made.
It would be a terrible blow to the essential decency of this nation, a blow against openness to the outside world and a blow against any rational weighing of evidence. It would mean that xenophobic playing on public fears had been successful. It would mean that the confederacy of dunces tallied over 50% of the voting public. All that would be a terrible indictment of the British people.
I would be fearful for the future of the country, given the many entirely unnecessary risks that Britain would now be running, but more than that I would feel a deep sense of shame for the bad way in which my country had made a bad decision. I expect that one way or another Britain would make the best of a bad job if it voted to Leave, but it would be a bad job.
Naught but VAPID BILGE from an out-of-touch, metropolitan lawyer!
@DavidL I don't think a Leave vote would be the end of days. It would be less important for the decision itself and more important for how the decision had been made.
It would be a terrible blow to the essential decency of this nation, a blow against openness to the outside world and a blow against any rational weighing of evidence. It would mean that xenophobic playing on public fears had been successful. It would mean that the confederacy of dunces tallied over 50% of the voting public. All that would be a terrible indictment of the British people.
I would be fearful for the future of the country, given the many entirely unnecessary risks that Britain would now be running, but more than that I would feel a deep sense of shame for the bad way in which my country had made a bad decision. I expect that one way or another Britain would make the best of a bad job if it voted to Leave, but it would be a bad job.
You should be a politician with that kind of rhetoric. Almost brought a tear to my glass eye.
Off topic but I notice from that page these are the most viewed articles in the Telegraph:
NEWS MOST VIEWED 1. Summer solstice 2016: First day of summer brings 'strawberry moon' – but what is the significance of the year's longest day? 2. EU referendum poll latest tracker and odds 3. 'Sea monster' spotted on Google Earth 4. Man dies in cinema while watching The Conjuring 2 – and body goes missing 5. Actress Selma Blair 'carried off plane on stretcher after midair outburst'
More National Enquirer than the Telegraph we used to know.
Welcome to the Telegraph's new "digital first" strategy. In other words, clickbait headlines, lists over several pages and celebrity articles that wouldnt look out of place in the Mail. Need to get the page views for the advertisers you see. A shadow of its former self.
Yes, it's quite depressing it reading it online. Is the paper version itself going the same way?
I have consistently said that I expected Remain to win and frankly expected them to win fairly easily given all the advantages that they had.
Now, at the end of days (according to Alastair at least) I have changed my mind. I think Leave are going to win. Just. Or Remain. Not sure. Yeah, Leave. 52:48.
Gulp.
Don't think so.
Got an awful feeling Ruth is going to get the better of Boris tonight.
How is she going to go down? How many people in England will know who she is? Is there not a danger she'll sound like another Scot telling us what to do? She'd be wise not to say "vote to stay in or Scotland might leave the UK."
This is what I thought a week ago, before Remain waited less than a day to use the murder of an MP as a campaign tool. You should see the leaflet below, which states "the death of Jo Cox is just the start" if the other side wins. Both sides have thoroughly trashed any trace of decency they have. You can not pretend our side has the moral high ground any more.
For heaven's sake, you're not seriously suggesting that that leaflet has anything to do with the Remain campaign, are you?
I note you start with "If the UK prospers". That is a big if.
Really??
I would suggest that history is overwhelmingly against you.
When, in the last 10 centuries of freedom and independence has England/Britain NOT prospered, relatively?
The only time she had to survive as a free trading nation - between 1945 and 1975. Before then she prospered down the barrel of a gun, since 1975 she's been in the EU. Her only period trying to fend for herself, did not go very well.
Of course, its much more complex than that but it's one answer to the question.
It is but it is a very poor answer. You could take the period before empire for example, you could also think about whether empire made us richer or poorer (there is a very cogent case that it was the latter). Against which one would have to balance how much of those ten centuries England and later the UK was genuinely a free-trading nation. We certainly haven't been since 1973, when we entered the EEC.
The papers are all over the Queen's three questions
Is this getting serious?
Which paper is going to dare run with "Queen Backs Brexit" tomorrow or Thursday, and to Hell with the complaint and the fallout because the referendum would have happened by then?
The papers are all over the Queen's three questions
Is this getting serious?
Which paper is going to dare run with "Queen Backs Brexit" tomorrow or Thursday, and to Hell with the complaint and the fallout because the referendum would have happened by then?
The maths are awful for Remain. As I said this morning.
Electorate 46 Million
NI, Scotland, London = 10 Million
Wales and Rest of England = 36 Million.
Even if Scotland/NI/London vote 70-30 remain a 55.5-44.5 leave vote in Rest of England is enough.
Outside the university cities like Oxford, Norwich, Exeter and a few other Cities like Brighton & Manchester (city not greater) where will the votes for Remain come from?
Sorry but Remain have had it.
Rubbish, the Kent poll posted earlier showed Remain winning Tunbridge Wells, Tonbridge and Malling, Sevenoaks, Canterbury and Gravesham. Yes Leave won more Kent seats overall but results like that should be enough to keep Leave under 55% across England even if it wins a majority in England thus allowing Scotland and London to give Remain a narrow lead across the UK
And I will raise you with remain wont get anywhere near the 70% worst case I assumed in those places. Probably nearer 60-40
I will also argue Leave will be much nearer 50% than 55% in England and Wales if they break 50% at all, in Scotland Remain will certainly get more than 60%
Scotland I agree, but NI and London will bring down the average.
If you think rest of england and wales excl london will get below 50% you are being very optimistic to say the least.
Including London England and Wales may well be under 50% Leave , excluding London I would agree it will probably be above 50% Leave but still not above 55%
Mr. Tyson, longevity can be dashed hard to predict. In the Middle Ages life expectancy was atrocious, but Henry III, Edward I and Edward III all lived very long lives (Edward II didn't, but that was due to incompetence on his part).
Titian is my favourite....he survived the plague, being stabbed and all sorts to get to over 90. He died in something like 1573. His portraits are also my favourite...I prefer them to Rembrandt's.
@DavidL I don't think a Leave vote would be the end of days. It would be less important for the decision itself and more important for how the decision had been made.
It would be a terrible blow to the essential decency of this nation, a blow against openness to the outside world and a blow against any rational weighing of evidence. It would mean that xenophobic playing on public fears had been successful. It would mean that the confederacy of dunces tallied over 50% of the voting public. All that would be a terrible indictment of the British people.
I would be fearful for the future of the country, given the many entirely unnecessary risks that Britain would now be running, but more than that I would feel a deep sense of shame for the bad way in which my country had made a bad decision. I expect that one way or another Britain would make the best of a bad job if it voted to Leave, but it would be a bad job.
Naught but VAPID BILGE from an out-of-touch, metropolitan lawyer!
@DavidL I don't think a Leave vote would be the end of days. It would be less important for the decision itself and more important for how the decision had been made.
It would be a terrible blow to the essential decency of this nation, a blow against openness to the outside world and a blow against any rational weighing of evidence. It would mean that xenophobic playing on public fears had been successful. It would mean that the confederacy of dunces tallied over 50% of the voting public. All that would be a terrible indictment of the British people.
I would be fearful for the future of the country, given the many entirely unnecessary risks that Britain would now be running, but more than that I would feel a deep sense of shame for the bad way in which my country had made a bad decision. I expect that one way or another Britain would make the best of a bad job if it voted to Leave, but it would be a bad job.
We vote the way we wish to. Do you really believe that it's somehow indecent to vote to Leave?
Centrica have written pro-Remain to their 37k staff - Sky
These letters might not seem very important because the number of people receiving each one is tiny compared to the electorate as a whole.
But they all add up - and if the result is very tight then if they cumulatively move even one or two hundred thousand votes they could make a difference.
Again, it smacks of the Establishment looking patrician at best, desperate to cling onto their power at worst.
In many cases, I expect the response will be "Fuck you, Boss, I'm voting Leave...."
Seems to me a large part of the Leave motivation is "Fuck you" to everybody. Fair enough, people have that prerogative. What will stick in my craw is any subsequent moaning and whingeing from the same people if it goes tits up - the one thing that absolutely nobody can claim in this referendum is that they were not warned about what the possible consequences of Brexit. If people still want to go ahead that's their decision but any buyer's remorse is going to fall on deaf ears.
And what sort of tits up do you expect , Mr. T? Someone, and I am sorry I forget who, said on where this morning that the FTSE could fall, by 10%, the value of my house could drop by 10% and my income could drop by 10%. Well, I have been through all of those in the past, and worse, and each time I have survived. I am not prepared to be scared by such stories.
Goldman Sachs say we must stay in else financial and economic armageddon will descend on us. The chairman of JCB say we can not only survive but thrive. Which would you say is more worthy of belief?
I was thinking more in terms of workers at Nissan, Centrica, Airbus saying "fuck you" to the bosses (as MarqueeMark put it) and voting Leave. Fine if they do but if Brexit ultimately means they lose their jobs sympathy will be thin on the ground.
f
I understand your point of view, but I am less convinced by the idea that Centrica will leave the UK (after all it is British Gas under another name), or indeed Nissan and Airbus for that matter. We heard all the same stories in late nineties when the debate was whether we should join the Euro.
I don't know either, I hope not, I was really trying to point out to MarqueeMark that it might people feel great to stick 2 fingers up to everybody and they have a perfect right to do so so long as they are prepared to accept any subsequent consequences.
Fair go, Mr. T., I can only speak for myself but I am quite prepared to accept the consequences of my actions.
The maths are awful for Remain. As I said this morning.
Electorate 46 Million
NI, Scotland, London = 10 Million
Wales and Rest of England = 36 Million.
Even if Scotland/NI/London vote 70-30 remain a 55.5-44.5 leave vote in Rest of England is enough.
Outside the university cities like Oxford, Norwich, Exeter and a few other Cities like Brighton & Manchester (city not greater) where will the votes for Remain come from?
Sorry but Remain have had it.
Rubbish, the Kent poll posted earlier showed Remain winning Tunbridge Wells, Tonbridge and Malling, Sevenoaks, Canterbury and Gravesham. Yes Leave won more Kent seats overall but results like that should be enough to keep Leave under 55% across England even if it wins a majority in England thus allowing Scotland and London to give Remain a narrow lead across the UK
And I will raise you with remain wont get anywhere near the 70% worst case I assumed in those places. Probably nearer 60-40
I will also argue Leave will be much nearer 50% than 55% in England and Wales if they break 50% at all, in Scotland Remain will certainly get more than 60%
Scotland I agree, but NI and London will bring down the average.
If you think rest of england and wales excl london will get below 50% you are being very optimistic to say the least.
Including London England and Wales may well be under 50% Leave , excluding London I would agree it will probably be above 50% Leave but still not above 55%
England outside London is the key to this. Everything else is noise.
Mr. Tyson, must admit that modern painters aren't a group with which I'm familiar.
Ramses II lived so long it was a disaster when he died. All his children were already dead and nobody could remember how the ceremonies for a new pharaoh were meant to go.
But what do they know about what Airbus would do? After all, they are only running Airbus, an exceptionally complex pan-European business which is crucially dependent on an integrated supply chain across Europe and which, as it happens, is more subject to Eurozone government influence than almost any other.
@DavidL I don't think a Leave vote would be the end of days. It would be less important for the decision itself and more important for how the decision had been made.
It would be a terrible blow to the essential decency of this nation, a blow against openness to the outside world and a blow against any rational weighing of evidence. It would mean that xenophobic playing on public fears had been successful. It would mean that the confederacy of dunces tallied over 50% of the voting public. All that would be a terrible indictment of the British people.
I would be fearful for the future of the country, given the many entirely unnecessary risks that Britain would now be running, but more than that I would feel a deep sense of shame for the bad way in which my country had made a bad decision. I expect that one way or another Britain would make the best of a bad job if it voted to Leave, but it would be a bad job.
Naught but VAPID BILGE from an out-of-touch, metropolitan lawyer!
The maths are awful for Remain. As I said this morning.
Electorate 46 Million
NI, Scotland, London = 10 Million
Wales and Rest of England = 36 Million.
Even if Scotland/NI/London vote 70-30 remain a 55.5-44.5 leave vote in Rest of England is enough.
Outside the university cities like Oxford, Norwich, Exeter and a few other Cities like Brighton & Manchester (city not greater) where will the votes for Remain come from?
Sorry but Remain have had it.
'Kin hell, even IOS would blush at the hubris you're displaying.
Hubris? I was being kind and working on 100% turnout.
If you want hubris plug the yougov age/turnout figures in and it gets even worse for remain.
maths dosent lie
You wrote Sorry but Remain have had it.
Considering your hyperbole the other day that 27% of the electorate have already voted for Leave by post, I'm finding your posts really funny.
From everything I hear about England outside London remain verily have had it
The maths are awful for Remain. As I said this morning.
Electorate 46 Million
NI, Scotland, London = 10 Million
Wales and Rest of England = 36 Million.
Even if Scotland/NI/London vote 70-30 remain a 55.5-44.5 leave vote in Rest of England is enough.
Outside the university cities like Oxford, Norwich, Exeter and a few other Cities like Brighton & Manchester (city not greater) where will the votes for Remain come from?
Sorry but Remain have had it.
Rubbish, the Kent poll posted earlier showed Remain winning Tunbridge Wells, Tonbridge and Malling, Sevenoaks, Canterbury and Gravesham. Yes Leave won more Kent seats overall but results like that should be enough to keep Leave under 55% across England even if it wins a majority in England thus allowing Scotland and London to give Remain a narrow lead across the UK
And I will raise you with remain wont get anywhere near the 70% worst case I assumed in those places. Probably nearer 60-40
I will also argue Leave will be much nearer 50% than 55% in England and Wales if they break 50% at all, in Scotland Remain will certainly get more than 60%
Scotland I agree, but NI and London will bring down the average.
If you think rest of england and wales excl london will get below 50% you are being very optimistic to say the least.
Including London England and Wales may well be under 50% Leave , excluding London I would agree it will probably be above 50% Leave but still not above 55%
England outside London is the key to this. Everything else is noise.
The key is both. England and Wales outside London needs to be at least 55% for Leave to have a strong chance and overcome the 60%+ for Remain in Scotland and the 55%+ for Remain in London and Northern Ireland
The maths are awful for Remain. As I said this morning.
Electorate 46 Million
NI, Scotland, London = 10 Million
Wales and Rest of England = 36 Million.
Even if Scotland/NI/London vote 70-30 remain a 55.5-44.5 leave vote in Rest of England is enough.
Outside the university cities like Oxford, Norwich, Exeter and a few other Cities like Brighton & Manchester (city not greater) where will the votes for Remain come from?
Sorry but Remain have had it.
Rubbish, the Kent poll posted earlier showed Remain winning Tunbridge Wells, Tonbridge and Malling, Sevenoaks, Canterbury and Gravesham. Yes Leave won more Kent seats overall but results like that should be enough to keep Leave under 55% across England even if it wins a majority in England thus allowing Scotland and London to give Remain a narrow lead across the UK
And I will raise you with remain wont get anywhere near the 70% worst case I assumed in those places. Probably nearer 60-40
I will also argue Leave will be much nearer 50% than 55% in England and Wales if they break 50% at all, in Scotland Remain will certainly get more than 60%
Scotland I agree, but NI and London will bring down the average.
If you think rest of england and wales excl london will get below 50% you are being very optimistic to say the least.
Including London England and Wales may well be under 50% Leave , excluding London I would agree it will probably be above 50% Leave but still not above 55%
If Remain has to win I would actually hope Leave is under in England and Wales, just so there less (but not no) hard feelings about the biggest Home nation voting for Leave. I know include London separate to the south, but it is the capital, so it's ok it pushes Leave in England under 50, it counts.
The maths are awful for Remain. As I said this morning.
Electorate 46 Million
NI, Scotland, London = 10 Million
Wales and Rest of England = 36 Million.
Even if Scotland/NI/London vote 70-30 remain a 55.5-44.5 leave vote in Rest of England is enough.
Outside the university cities like Oxford, Norwich, Exeter and a few other Cities like Brighton & Manchester (city not greater) where will the votes for Remain come from?
Sorry but Remain have had it.
'Kin hell, even IOS would blush at the hubris you're displaying.
Hubris? I was being kind and working on 100% turnout.
If you want hubris plug the yougov age/turnout figures in and it gets even worse for remain.
maths dosent lie
You wrote Sorry but Remain have had it.
Considering your hyperbole the other day that 27% of the electorate have already voted for Leave by post, I'm finding your posts really funny.
DavidL I don't think a Leave vote would be the end of days. It would be less important for the decision itself and more important for how the decision had been made.
It would be a terrible blow to the essential decency of this nation, a blow against openness to the outside world and a blow against any rational weighing of evidence. It would mean that xenophobic playing on public fears had been successful. It would mean that the confederacy of dunces tallied over 50% of the voting public. All that would be a terrible indictment of the British people.
I would be fearful for the future of the country, given the many entirely unnecessary risks that Britain would now be running, but more than that I would feel a deep sense of shame for the bad way in which my country had made a bad decision. I expect that one way or another Britain would make the best of a bad job if it voted to Leave, but it would be a bad job.
'Naught but VAPID BILGE from an out-of-touch, metropolitan lawyer!'
Many thanks to the fellow who dropped by my prize from the PB London Mayor NoJam. The combination of maps and politics in book form has been squirrelled away from my partner who would not approve. Some 5 years ago I came Joint top in the Eastleigh by election NoJam, though my GE and Sindy entrances were less good.
PBers of a delicate constitution may need to take heed; my NoJam Brexit was:
Leave on 41.57, turnout 67.34%
It is Foxys little pungent dropping rather than a product of Jacks ARSE4EU, but nevertheless...
The papers are all over the Queen's three questions
Is this getting serious?
God Save our Gracious Queen. Long live our noble Queen. God Save our Queen. Send her victorious. Happy and Glorious. Long to reign over us. God save our Queen.
I will stop here before I write some stanzas that will really annoy Malcolm in a General Way(de)
Comments
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/21/michael-gove-compares-experts-warning-against-brexit-to-nazis-wh/
Got an awful feeling Ruth is going to get the better of Boris tonight.
I'm also very surprised it's so close.
Edited extra bit: Mr. Observer, an astute point on immigration.
If you want hubris plug the yougov age/turnout figures in and it gets even worse for remain.
maths dosent lie
Good to see so many people enthused though, the only thing worse than a close result would be a close result on a low turnout.
YouGov think it's level pegging.
Considering your hyperbole the other day that 27% of the electorate have already voted for Leave by post, I'm finding your posts really funny.
And since the IMF, George Soros, business leaders, economists, are all saying that we won't, some like Branson saying it will be catastrophic...catastrophic..... I just don't get it. Do you know something that they don't? Is there some economic porthole to a different set of forecasts that only people like Nigel Lawson, Farage, and Boris Johnson can see?
Establishment, Elite and Experts are thrown at anyone with any professional background coming out in favour of remain.
I tell you, next time I go to my Doctors, I want someone who is a Doctor. I don't want to be treated by Nigel Lawson or Nigel Farage claiming they know better.
PBers of a delicate constitution may need to take heed; my NoJam Brexit was:
Leave on 41.57, turnout 67.34%
It is Foxys little pungent dropping rather than a product of Jacks ARSE4EU, but nevertheless...
Details of other inferior pundits here:
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/02/29/enter-the-politicalbetting-eu-referendum-competition-to-win-a-250-free-bet-at-william-hill/
Really??
I would suggest that history is overwhelmingly against you.
When, in the last 10 centuries of freedom and independence has England/Britain NOT prospered, relatively?
But I do think and have repeatedly said that the complete lack of a campaign up here by either side is unlikely to drive turnout. I think Remain have missed a trick probably worth 100-200K net personally. It is almost the safe seat mentality which is completely irrelevant in this case.
At least we've got Wilshere.
It would be a terrible blow to the essential decency of this nation, a blow against openness to the outside world and a blow against any rational weighing of evidence. It would mean that xenophobic playing on public fears had been successful. It would mean that the confederacy of dunces tallied over 50% of the voting public. All that would be a terrible indictment of the British people.
I would be fearful for the future of the country, given the many entirely unnecessary risks that Britain would now be running, but more than that I would feel a deep sense of shame for the bad way in which my country had made a bad decision. I expect that one way or another Britain would make the best of a bad job if it voted to Leave, but it would be a bad job.
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More National Enquirer than the Telegraph we used to know.
Of course, its much more complex than that but it's one answer to the question.
The poll has Ashford voting Leave 53-27, Canterbury Remain 39-38, Chatham and Aylesford Leave 57-26, Dartford Leave 45-38, Dover Leave 56-32, Faversham and Mid Kent Leave 50-31, Folkestone and Hythe Leave 49-34, Gillingham and Rainham Leave 48-31, Gravesham Remain 41-33, Maidstone and the Weald Leave 41-34, N Thanet Leave 58-32, Rochester and Strood Leave 54-29, Sevenoaks Remain 54-43, Sittingbourne and Sheppey Leave 62-19, S Thanet Leave 47-32, Tonbridge and Malling Remain 50-38, Tunbridge Wells Remain 55-37
http://www.kentonline.co.uk/kent/news/kent-backs-brexit-97358/
So 12 Kent seats voting Leave, 5 Remain
Having lived through Sindy and this I am really not a fan of referenda. I hope we don't see another one for some considerable time whatever the result.
Democratic independence of any country on earth = freedom.
Democratic independence of Britain = racism.
amazing really.
https://www.death-clock.org
I don't disagree with you....in the long term we'll be OK whether we stay in or go out.
But, despite being very fit, resting heart rate at 41, able to do 100 push ups continuously, can run half a marathon....my date of death is only 24 years away...and I am in my forties. I don't want more than half of them blighted by the uncertainty of this referendum, and then the other half catching up to where we should have been.
If you think rest of england and wales excl london will get below 50% you are being very optimistic to say the least.
Is this getting serious?
I might do OK on turnout at 68.57%, though.
http://lucidtalk.co.uk/images/News/LTJuneTrackerPollResults-MainReportPublic.pdf
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3652205/How-supporting-country-racist-Father-furious-branded-racist-b-flying-England-flags-car-Euro-2016.html
Ramses II lived so long it was a disaster when he died. All his children were already dead and nobody could remember how the ceremonies for a new pharaoh were meant to go.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/may/20/eu-referendum-airbus-uk-chief-brexit-hurt-jobs-investment
4 April 2016:
http://news.sky.com/story/1672511/planemaker-airbus-warns-of-brexit-dangers
13 June 2016:
https://uk.news.yahoo.com/airbus-says-brexit-could-hurt-152248053.html
But what do they know about what Airbus would do? After all, they are only running Airbus, an exceptionally complex pan-European business which is crucially dependent on an integrated supply chain across Europe and which, as it happens, is more subject to Eurozone government influence than almost any other.
http://hurryupharry.org/2016/06/20/why-i-am-voting-leave-by-professor-alan-johnson/
The Sunday Yougov had Remain ahead 51-49 with Leave leading 54-46 in the North, 53-47 in the South and the Midlands and Wales 50-50, Remain led 57-43 in London and 63-38 in Scotland
http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/2t6fjf3032/SundayTimeslResults_160617_EUReferendum_W.pdf
Yesterday's Yougov had Leave ahead 51-49 and leading 55-45 in the North, 59/41 in the Midlands and Wales and 51-49 in the South, while Remain led 58-42 in London and 67-33 in Scotland.
http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/it82go26iz/TimesResults_160620_EUReferendum_W.pdf
*innocent face*
AlastairMeeks
DavidL I don't think a Leave vote would be the end of days. It would be less important for the decision itself and more important for how the decision had been made.
It would be a terrible blow to the essential decency of this nation, a blow against openness to the outside world and a blow against any rational weighing of evidence. It would mean that xenophobic playing on public fears had been successful. It would mean that the confederacy of dunces tallied over 50% of the voting public. All that would be a terrible indictment of the British people.
I would be fearful for the future of the country, given the many entirely unnecessary risks that Britain would now be running, but more than that I would feel a deep sense of shame for the bad way in which my country had made a bad decision. I expect that one way or another Britain would make the best of a bad job if it voted to Leave, but it would be a bad job.
'Naught but VAPID BILGE from an out-of-touch, metropolitan lawyer!'
Agree, bollocks on stilts.
I don't think I've changed my mind on that.
Long live our noble Queen.
God Save our Queen.
Send her victorious.
Happy and Glorious.
Long to reign over us.
God save our Queen.
I will stop here before I write some stanzas that will really annoy Malcolm in a General Way(de)