politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The referendum: The affluent versus the non-affluent summed
Comments
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I think the canvassers are told to return to the stubborn ones up to ten times to get a response. It means they can use a randomly selected sample. Polling companies have to use demographic weightings to get to a somewhat representative sample. These are subjective to a degree and prone to error, particularly with one off referendums with no historical known data to work with. You can be sure polling companies will compare their polls with this survey and could well make adjustments to their weighting algorithms on the back of it.GIN1138 said:
" They hunt them down"?FF43 said:
They do the British social attitudes survey with, I think 3000 targets who are selected at random and are hunted down for responses. Polling companies use it as a reference for their weighting strategies as they can't afford that kind of rigour.GIN1138 said:
Who?TheScreamingEagles said:The NatCen poll
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This is not about the certain to vote. It is about who normally votes Can't Be Arsed. Will they change sides?TheScreamingEagles said:Now this is interesting look at the ALL VOTERS figures
https://twitter.com/NCPoliticsEU/status/7449975563720171530 -
ORB are fairly irrelevant - it was always to be expected that this week's events would lead to phone pollsters finding that leave was less obviously reported, and they have always been among the most favourable Remain pollsters.
Natcen however. They do it in a genuinely academic fashion. I can't pass comment on their phone/online operation, but I presume it's to the same rigour they apply face to face, which is substantial. First time I've thought Remain might win in the last two/three weeks.0 -
@SamCoatesTimes: Exc Times / YouGov poll LEAVE 2 pts ahead
Remain 42 (-2)
Leave 44 (+1)
DK 9 (uc)
WNV 4 (uc)
1,652 adults online June 17-19 (previous J16-17)0 -
And there are people like Penny Mordaunt who've disqualified themselves from holding office.Sean_F said:
I think things have been said throughout this campaign which are hard to unsay. One group of Conservatives think the other are effete Metroplitan snobs. The other think their opponents are bigots with blood on their hands.felix said:
People have predicted the end of the party since RC emancipation in the 1829! Life and the party goes on.Sean_F said:
I think there is an ending coming to the Conservative Party. Just think of the numbers of Conservative-voting authorities that will vote Leave on Thursday.Alanbrooke said:
Whatever the result Mr F the referendum has just reinforced my view that there are a large block of people for whom the current political structures provide no representation.Sean_F said:
Of course. I was feeling depressed when I posted that.Casino_Royale said:
Why not the slightest doubt? Surely, there's always some doubt.Sean_F said:
Anecdotes are interesting, but there's not the slightest doubt that Remain will win this now.EPG said:
I bet people who know, much less marry, PBers are going to be more inclined to LEAVE than crude demography would suggest.OllyT said:
I was just thinking exactly that - particularly as every Leave vote that has been the subject of an anecdote has been a "surprise" as the poster would have expected them to vote Remain. Don't know why we are waiting till Friday to get the result really.midwinter said:
If the anecdotal evidence from here is a quarter way accurate Remain will do well to poll in the high teens.....EPG said:
Most of the anecdotes come from active campaigners for LEAVE, experiencing the natural politeness of the great English public; almost all come from their sympathisers.peter_from_putney said:Unless I'm very much mistaken, I would say that the anecdotal evidence offered on this site to date strongly favours LEAVE, paricularly with reference to large numbers of voters, eg the Nissan workforce vs a few dozen people in North London.
But then again, these are random reports, completely unsubstatiated and unweighted and although interesting, have about the same value as yesterday's fish and chips wrapping.
I think we can run close, but not reach 50%+.
It has all the feel of an ancien regime about to crumble. Certainly on the right there are lots of voters who now wont vote Conservative again. They have to go somewhere, time for a change.0 -
I think we all know which is the Gold Standard.............Scott_P said:@SamCoatesTimes: Exc Times / YouGov poll LEAVE 2 pts ahead
Remain 42 (-2)
Leave 44 (+1)
DK 9 (uc)
WNV 4 (uc)
1,652 adults online June 17-19 (previous J16-17)
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Exc Times / YouGov poll LEAVE 2 pts ahead
Remain 42 (-2)
Leave 44 (+1)
DK 9 (uc)
WNV 4 (uc)
1,652 adults online June 17-19 (previous J16-17)0 -
Looks like Remainers massively firming up their voting intentions to me.BenedictWhite said:
No idea.foxinsoxuk said:
Is ORB the new Gold Standard?TheScreamingEagles said:
Did anyone get the result of the last GE right to within a 3% swing?0 -
Proof those saying recent events would swing things are wrong.Scott_P said:@SamCoatesTimes: Exc Times / YouGov poll LEAVE 2 pts ahead
Remain 42 (-2)
Leave 44 (+1)
DK 9 (uc)
WNV 4 (uc)
1,652 adults online June 17-19 (previous J16-17)0 -
BMG!RobD said:
I think we all know which is the Gold Standard.............Scott_P said:@SamCoatesTimes: Exc Times / YouGov poll LEAVE 2 pts ahead
Remain 42 (-2)
Leave 44 (+1)
DK 9 (uc)
WNV 4 (uc)
1,652 adults online June 17-19 (previous J16-17)0 -
Time to ban ITV from covering England games.
(Edit: and that's before this tournament.)0 -
The online/phone divide again offers Leave hope
Britain Elects @britainelects 41s41 seconds ago
EU referendum poll:
Remain: 42% (-2)
Leave: 44% (+1)
(via YouGov, online / 17 - 19 Jun)
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/7449985639486627840 -
It is not yet over! YouGov is the gold standard.Scott_P said:@SamCoatesTimes: Exc Times / YouGov poll LEAVE 2 pts ahead
Remain 42 (-2)
Leave 44 (+1)
DK 9 (uc)
WNV 4 (uc)
1,652 adults online June 17-19 (previous J16-17)
I'm not letting go of those straws yet!0 -
Clear as mud then, still at least they don't seem to be herding.
England rubbish, Wales bloody good.0 -
Well that's cleared that up then. Could be leave, could be remain.Scott_P said:@SamCoatesTimes: Exc Times / YouGov poll LEAVE 2 pts ahead
Remain 42 (-2)
Leave 44 (+1)
DK 9 (uc)
WNV 4 (uc)
1,652 adults online June 17-19 (previous J16-17)
Who knew? Edge not getting a look in?
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/7449985639486627840 -
No, if people start to think Remain are on course, they might not turn out.Tim said:
No, not almost certainly. BlimeyChameleon said:
Almost certainly game, set and match.HYUFD said:Britain Elects @britainelects 2m2 minutes ago
EU referendum poll:
Remain: 53% (+5)
Leave: 46% (-3)
(via ORB, phone / )
Certain to vote.
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/7449958954108928000 -
R16 could be England v Portugal and Wales v Norn Iron.0
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Yes. Remainers firming up is something that ties together the polling evidence and anecdotal evidence.Casino_Royale said:
Looks like Remainers massively firming up their voting intentions to me.BenedictWhite said:
No idea.foxinsoxuk said:
Is ORB the new Gold Standard?TheScreamingEagles said:
Did anyone get the result of the last GE right to within a 3% swing?0 -
How many more polls to come in the next 72 hours? Three?
Yougov, Survation and IPSOS-Mori?0 -
How weird is that?Scott_P said:@NCPoliticsEU: ORB/Telegraph (#EUref)
Certain to vote:
REMAIN 53 (+5)
LEAVE 46 (-3)
All adults:
REMAIN 49 (=)
LEAVE 47 (+3)
16th-19th
N=800
#Brexit0 -
Ooh, interesting
@TelePolitics: Ruth Davidson 'believes Scottish Tories would break away if Boris Johnson becomes PM' https://t.co/WamgN2qq0R0 -
Could it be that through the campaign few people's minds have changed, but up until a few weeks ago there was a cohort of shy leavers, they came out, but the Cox murder forced them back under?BenedictWhite said:
Well that's cleared that up then. Could be leave, could be remain.Scott_P said:@SamCoatesTimes: Exc Times / YouGov poll LEAVE 2 pts ahead
Remain 42 (-2)
Leave 44 (+1)
DK 9 (uc)
WNV 4 (uc)
1,652 adults online June 17-19 (previous J16-17)
Who knew? Edge not getting a look in?
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/7449985639486627840 -
Either option could happen on Thursday. Anyone saying def either way is looking a little silly.0
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I think that's right - it also explains the discrepancy with YouGov, which I believe doesn't weight for certainty to vote.Casino_Royale said:
Looks like Remainers massively firming up their voting intentions to me.BenedictWhite said:
No idea.foxinsoxuk said:
Is ORB the new Gold Standard?TheScreamingEagles said:
Did anyone get the result of the last GE right to within a 3% swing?0 -
Listen to Ruth
Ruth Davidson believes the Scottish Conservatives would have to break away from the UK party under a new name if Boris Johnson becomes Prime Minister, the Telegraph can disclose as the pair prepare to face off on Tuesday night in an EU referendum TV debate.
Senior sources close to the Scottish Tory leader said she thinks the former Mayor of London would be toxic to her party’s electoral hopes north of the Border if he succeeds David Cameron in the wake of a vote for Brexit on Thursday.
They said Ms Davidson predicts the Scottish Conservatives would have to “do a Murdo”, a reference to her former leadership rival Murdo Fraser’s controversial proposal to break away from the UK Tories and form a new right-wing party.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/20/ruth-davidson-believes-scottish-tories-would-break-away-if-boris/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter0 -
I know you do, Mr White, I tried to organise a luncheon if you remember? I live in in Hurstpierpoint and the estate I am talking about is Willow Way.BenedictWhite said:
*Cough*HurstLlama said:
That I think is spot on, Mr. B. Not only former Conservative voters either. Up the road from me is a post war council estate where a year or so back I did some work, on behalf of Mid-Sussex Council, trying to get people to register to vote. "Why should I bother nobody gives a feck about us" was the most common response, and I have to say that they had a point.Alanbrooke said:
Whatever the result Mr F the referendum has just reinforced my view that there are a large block of people for whom the current political structures provide no representation.
It has all the feel of an ancien regime about to crumble. Certainly on the right there are lots of voters who now wont vote Conservative again. They have to go somewhere, time for a change.
For example, at the time I was doing that work the more than adequate street lighting in my cul de sac was being upgraded because it did not comply to some new standard. Yet the street lighting on the Estate was so inadequate that in some parts it did not exist. It still has not been improved.
There are lots and lots of people who feel that the political parties do not represent them, that they are forgotten and do not matter. In such circumstances the "extremist" parties will prosper. I note that no one on here today has mentioned the new Mayoress of Rome.
Where do you live? I live in Mid Sussex....
No Need to cough.
Oh, re the potential Sussex PB Lunch, Miss Plato has said she is up for it. Nobody else bothered to reply.0 -
Nat Cen are pretty much what I expect the result to be.chestnut said:ORB are fairly irrelevant - it was always to be expected that this week's events would lead to phone pollsters finding that leave was less obviously reported, and they have always been among the most favourable Remain pollsters.
Natcen however. They do it in a genuinely academic fashion. I can't pass comment on their phone/online operation, but I presume it's to the same rigour they apply face to face, which is substantial. First time I've thought Remain might win in the last two/three weeks.0 -
I remember reading that ORB wished to be judged on their all adults figure, or am I just imagining that?Sean_F said:
How weird is that?Scott_P said:@NCPoliticsEU: ORB/Telegraph (#EUref)
Certain to vote:
REMAIN 53 (+5)
LEAVE 46 (-3)
All adults:
REMAIN 49 (=)
LEAVE 47 (+3)
16th-19th
N=800
#Brexit0 -
And indeed struggling Leavers may consider there's no risk anymore and can vote their gut.rottenborough said:
No, if people start to think Remain are on course, they might not turn out.Tim said:
No, not almost certainly. BlimeyChameleon said:
Almost certainly game, set and match.HYUFD said:Britain Elects @britainelects 2m2 minutes ago
EU referendum poll:
Remain: 53% (+5)
Leave: 46% (-3)
(via ORB, phone / )
Certain to vote.
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/7449958954108928000 -
Some stats guru can tell us how likely that is to happen by chance. Probably still small number statistics territory.ThreeQuidder said:Time to ban ITV from covering England games.
(Edit: and that's before this tournament.)0 -
Official polling status: ¯\_(ツ)_/¯0
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That's correctJamesP said:
I remember reading that ORB wished to be judged on their all adults figure, or am I just imagining that?Sean_F said:
How weird is that?Scott_P said:@NCPoliticsEU: ORB/Telegraph (#EUref)
Certain to vote:
REMAIN 53 (+5)
LEAVE 46 (-3)
All adults:
REMAIN 49 (=)
LEAVE 47 (+3)
16th-19th
N=800
#Brexit0 -
Peole have said for year that it's do the Scottish Tories good to become an independent party.Scott_P said:Ooh, interesting
@TelePolitics: Ruth Davidson 'believes Scottish Tories would break away if Boris Johnson becomes PM' https://t.co/WamgN2qq0R
SLAB should have done it after Iraq.0 -
shy leavers.Sean_F said:
How weird is that?Scott_P said:@NCPoliticsEU: ORB/Telegraph (#EUref)
Certain to vote:
REMAIN 53 (+5)
LEAVE 46 (-3)
All adults:
REMAIN 49 (=)
LEAVE 47 (+3)
16th-19th
N=800
#Brexit0 -
Do we get to switch to another door?RobD said:
Some stats guru can tell us how likely that is to happen by chance. Probably still small number statistics territory.ThreeQuidder said:Time to ban ITV from covering England games.
(Edit: and that's before this tournament.)0 -
Final proof of BBC bias.ThreeQuidder said:Time to ban ITV from covering England games.
(Edit: and that's before this tournament.)0 -
They look like good polls for Leave to me. That ORB one is very strange.0
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Ok, I've lost track. Why are we hating her again?williamglenn said:
And there are people like Penny Mordaunt who've disqualified themselves from holding office.
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I suggest the Scottish Unionist Party. You might still struggle to gather up every single strand of unionism, but it's signal the intent. And some drunk SNP voters might vote SUP by mistake.TheScreamingEagles said:Listen to Ruth
Ruth Davidson believes the Scottish Conservatives would have to break away from the UK party under a new name if Boris Johnson becomes Prime Minister, the Telegraph can disclose as the pair prepare to face off on Tuesday night in an EU referendum TV debate.
Senior sources close to the Scottish Tory leader said she thinks the former Mayor of London would be toxic to her party’s electoral hopes north of the Border if he succeeds David Cameron in the wake of a vote for Brexit on Thursday.
They said Ms Davidson predicts the Scottish Conservatives would have to “do a Murdo”, a reference to her former leadership rival Murdo Fraser’s controversial proposal to break away from the UK Tories and form a new right-wing party.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/20/ruth-davidson-believes-scottish-tories-would-break-away-if-boris/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter0 -
Ah yes.HurstLlama said:
I know you do, Mr White, I tried to organise a luncheon if you remember? I live in in Hurstpierpoint and the estate I am talking about is Willow Way.BenedictWhite said:
*Cough*HurstLlama said:
That I think is spot on, Mr. B. Not only former Conservative voters either. Up the road from me is a post war council estate where a year or so back I did some work, on behalf of Mid-Sussex Council, trying to get people to register to vote. "Why should I bother nobody gives a feck about us" was the most common response, and I have to say that they had a point.Alanbrooke said:
Whatever the result Mr F the referendum has just reinforced my view that there are a large block of people for whom the current political structures provide no representation.
It has all the feel of an ancien regime about to crumble. Certainly on the right there are lots of voters who now wont vote Conservative again. They have to go somewhere, time for a change.
For example, at the time I was doing that work the more than adequate street lighting in my cul de sac was being upgraded because it did not comply to some new standard. Yet the street lighting on the Estate was so inadequate that in some parts it did not exist. It still has not been improved.
There are lots and lots of people who feel that the political parties do not represent them, that they are forgotten and do not matter. In such circumstances the "extremist" parties will prosper. I note that no one on here today has mentioned the new Mayoress of Rome.
Where do you live? I live in Mid Sussex....
No Need to cough.
Oh, re the potential Sussex PB Lunch, Miss Plato has said she is up for it. Nobody else bothered to reply.
Willow way.
I am not far away. Still up for a meet up. Could be north of the water.0 -
Is there not another qriously poll?0
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Flat out lie on whether we have a veto on Turkey's membership of EU.viewcode said:
Ok, I've lost track. Why are we hating her again?williamglenn said:
And there are people like Penny Mordaunt who've disqualified themselves from holding office.0 -
Can anyone come up with a good reason why, after weeks of all voters giving much worse results for Remain than certain to vote, the complete opposite appears in this ORB poll?0
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Who are these shy Leavers? Leave is still on 44% with yougov, not 54%! As far as I can see it Leavers are more passionate than RemainersChameleon said:
Could it be that through the campaign few people's minds have changed, but up until a few weeks ago there was a cohort of shy leavers, they came out, but the Cox murder forced them back under?BenedictWhite said:
Well that's cleared that up then. Could be leave, could be remain.Scott_P said:@SamCoatesTimes: Exc Times / YouGov poll LEAVE 2 pts ahead
Remain 42 (-2)
Leave 44 (+1)
DK 9 (uc)
WNV 4 (uc)
1,652 adults online June 17-19 (previous J16-17)
Who knew? Edge not getting a look in?
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/7449985639486627840 -
FWIW, anecdotally I do think that last week's polls woke up Remain's supporters big time - people who were Remain but previously only vaguely interested started getting seriously concerned, asking for posters, telling their friends to make sure to vote, etc.0
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Betfair unmoved by the polls0
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Surely both SLab and the Ruth Davidson For A Strong Opposition Party are Better Together with their colleagues in the rest of the UK, pooling and sharing for the benefit of all?GIN1138 said:
Peole have said for year that it's do the Scottish Tories good to become an independent party.Scott_P said:Ooh, interesting
@TelePolitics: Ruth Davidson 'believes Scottish Tories would break away if Boris Johnson becomes PM' https://t.co/WamgN2qq0R
SLAB should have done it after Iraq.0 -
Cameroons - tpd's to the core.TheScreamingEagles said:Listen to Ruth
Ruth Davidson believes the Scottish Conservatives would have to break away from the UK party under a new name if Boris Johnson becomes Prime Minister, the Telegraph can disclose as the pair prepare to face off on Tuesday night in an EU referendum TV debate.
Senior sources close to the Scottish Tory leader said she thinks the former Mayor of London would be toxic to her party’s electoral hopes north of the Border if he succeeds David Cameron in the wake of a vote for Brexit on Thursday.
They said Ms Davidson predicts the Scottish Conservatives would have to “do a Murdo”, a reference to her former leadership rival Murdo Fraser’s controversial proposal to break away from the UK Tories and form a new right-wing party.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/20/ruth-davidson-believes-scottish-tories-would-break-away-if-boris/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter0 -
The middle classes are coming out for Remain and they vote, the working classes are coming out for Leave and they are less likely to vote!DanSmith said:Can anyone come up with a good reason why, after weeks of all voters giving much worse results for Remain than certain to vote, the complete opposite appears in this ORB poll?
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But why would they declare a reponse but then say they're not certain to vote?nunu said:
shy leavers.Sean_F said:
How weird is that?Scott_P said:@NCPoliticsEU: ORB/Telegraph (#EUref)
Certain to vote:
REMAIN 53 (+5)
LEAVE 46 (-3)
All adults:
REMAIN 49 (=)
LEAVE 47 (+3)
16th-19th
N=800
#Brexit0 -
Yougov are polling right now. I did a poll for them a couple of hours ago.Casino_Royale said:How many more polls to come in the next 72 hours? Three?
Yougov, Survation and IPSOS-Mori?
You'll know my poll. I was the one voter that wanted to Leave and not have immigration controls. I will now ride off on my unicorn.0 -
Oh, her. Ok, goddit.London said:
Flat out lie on whether we have a veto on Turkey's membership of EU.viewcode said:
Ok, I've lost track. Why are we hating her again?williamglenn said:
And there are people like Penny Mordaunt who've disqualified themselves from holding office.0 -
Certainty to vote. Check out the links to the Telegraph piece with the figures.DanSmith said:Can anyone come up with a good reason why, after weeks of all voters giving much worse results for Remain than certain to vote, the complete opposite appears in this ORB poll?
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Ed Miliband's 11 million votersNickPalmer said:FWIW, anecdotally I do think that last week's polls woke up Remain's supporters big time - people who were Remain but previously only vaguely interested started getting seriously concerned, asking for posters, telling their friends to make sure to vote, etc.
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It seems like I forgot to finish my post, so the gap has reopened between phone and online due to leavers not declaring their intentions to the nice lady on the phone.HYUFD said:
Who are these shy Leavers? Leave is still on 44% with yougov, not 54%! As far as I can see it Leavers are more passionate than RemainersChameleon said:
Could it be that through the campaign few people's minds have changed, but up until a few weeks ago there was a cohort of shy leavers, they came out, but the Cox murder forced them back under?BenedictWhite said:
Well that's cleared that up then. Could be leave, could be remain.Scott_P said:@SamCoatesTimes: Exc Times / YouGov poll LEAVE 2 pts ahead
Remain 42 (-2)
Leave 44 (+1)
DK 9 (uc)
WNV 4 (uc)
1,652 adults online June 17-19 (previous J16-17)
Who knew? Edge not getting a look in?
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/7449985639486627840 -
People who work in offices in such as mine, where the mere mention of voting leave is a stake through the heart of any potential career progression. Why you would lie to a pollster though, I'm not quite sure the logic follows through?HYUFD said:
Who are these shy Leavers? Leave is still on 44% with yougov, not 54%! As far as I can see it Leavers are more passionate than RemainersChameleon said:
Could it be that through the campaign few people's minds have changed, but up until a few weeks ago there was a cohort of shy leavers, they came out, but the Cox murder forced them back under?BenedictWhite said:
Well that's cleared that up then. Could be leave, could be remain.Scott_P said:@SamCoatesTimes: Exc Times / YouGov poll LEAVE 2 pts ahead
Remain 42 (-2)
Leave 44 (+1)
DK 9 (uc)
WNV 4 (uc)
1,652 adults online June 17-19 (previous J16-17)
Who knew? Edge not getting a look in?
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/7449985639486627840 -
After the Scottish Tories dissolved the Scottish Unionist Party the name was taken up by another party. I don't think it is available.kle4 said:
I suggest the Scottish Unionist Party. You might still struggle to gather up every single strand of unionism, but it's signal the intent. And some drunk SNP voters might vote SUP by mistake.TheScreamingEagles said:Listen to Ruth
Ruth Davidson believes the Scottish Conservatives would have to break away from the UK party under a new name if Boris Johnson becomes Prime Minister, the Telegraph can disclose as the pair prepare to face off on Tuesday night in an EU referendum TV debate.
Senior sources close to the Scottish Tory leader said she thinks the former Mayor of London would be toxic to her party’s electoral hopes north of the Border if he succeeds David Cameron in the wake of a vote for Brexit on Thursday.
They said Ms Davidson predicts the Scottish Conservatives would have to “do a Murdo”, a reference to her former leadership rival Murdo Fraser’s controversial proposal to break away from the UK Tories and form a new right-wing party.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/20/ruth-davidson-believes-scottish-tories-would-break-away-if-boris/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter0 -
Well SLAB is essentially a deceased Party and the Scottish Tories are only showing occasional flickers of life....Lowlander said:
Surely both SLab and the Ruth Davidson For A Strong Opposition Party are Better Together with their colleagues in the rest of the UK, pooling and sharing for the benefit of all?GIN1138 said:
Peole have said for year that it's do the Scottish Tories good to become an independent party.Scott_P said:Ooh, interesting
@TelePolitics: Ruth Davidson 'believes Scottish Tories would break away if Boris Johnson becomes PM' https://t.co/WamgN2qq0R
SLAB should have done it after Iraq.0 -
And yet is it still old people are coming out for Leave and they vote, the young are coming out for Remain and they are less likely to vote?HYUFD said:
The middle classes are coming out for Remain and they vote, the working classes are coming out for Leave and they are less likely to vote!DanSmith said:Can anyone come up with a good reason why, after weeks of all voters giving much worse results for Remain than certain to vote, the complete opposite appears in this ORB poll?
0 -
Already a SUP.kle4 said:
I suggest the Scottish Unionist Party. You might still struggle to gather up every single strand of unionism, but it's signal the intent. And some drunk SNP voters might vote SUP by mistake.TheScreamingEagles said:Listen to Ruth
Ruth Davidson believes the Scottish Conservatives would have to break away from the UK party under a new name if Boris Johnson becomes Prime Minister, the Telegraph can disclose as the pair prepare to face off on Tuesday night in an EU referendum TV debate.
Senior sources close to the Scottish Tory leader said she thinks the former Mayor of London would be toxic to her party’s electoral hopes north of the Border if he succeeds David Cameron in the wake of a vote for Brexit on Thursday.
They said Ms Davidson predicts the Scottish Conservatives would have to “do a Murdo”, a reference to her former leadership rival Murdo Fraser’s controversial proposal to break away from the UK Tories and form a new right-wing party.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/20/ruth-davidson-believes-scottish-tories-would-break-away-if-boris/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
Murdo wanted Progressive Party name.0 -
Are you sure she wasn't just mistaken? The quality of debate is so poor, I actually think these people are ill informed. (MPs were certainly clueless over Iraq)London said:
Flat out lie on whether we have a veto on Turkey's membership of EU.viewcode said:
Ok, I've lost track. Why are we hating her again?williamglenn said:
And there are people like Penny Mordaunt who've disqualified themselves from holding office.0 -
Telegraph backs Leave tomorrow, least shocking news of the campaign!
https://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/7450010302959124480 -
demographics is swings and roundabouts, is about GOTV now thats all and shy leavers.kle4 said:Many, me including me, called it for Leave when they got a confluence of great polls. Now, that's because I never learn not to overreact, but I shall try, and so not now call it for Remain based of a series of good polls.
Demographics, message, passion, all favour Leave.0 -
We the British government or we the British people?London said:
Flat out lie on whether we have a veto on Turkey's membership of EU.viewcode said:
Ok, I've lost track. Why are we hating her again?williamglenn said:
And there are people like Penny Mordaunt who've disqualified themselves from holding office.0 -
I hate to say it because I don't actually think it's very fair, but I think the Jo Cox murder has had an effect, plus the Farage poster (there is polling that it's unpopular) - the combination of the two has put some Remainers into "keep the barbarians out" mode while some leavers may have wondered if they were quite comfortable with the Brexit camp.DanSmith said:Can anyone come up with a good reason why, after weeks of all voters giving much worse results for Remain than certain to vote, the complete opposite appears in this ORB poll?
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They are probably actuaries.Casino_Royale said:
But why would they declare a reponse but then say they're not certain to vote?nunu said:
shy leavers.Sean_F said:
How weird is that?Scott_P said:@NCPoliticsEU: ORB/Telegraph (#EUref)
Certain to vote:
REMAIN 53 (+5)
LEAVE 46 (-3)
All adults:
REMAIN 49 (=)
LEAVE 47 (+3)
16th-19th
N=800
#Brexit0 -
Are we disqualifying all flat out liars from holding office now? I fear cabinet meetings will be rather quiet affairs.viewcode said:
Oh, her. Ok, goddit.London said:
Flat out lie on whether we have a veto on Turkey's membership of EU.viewcode said:
Ok, I've lost track. Why are we hating her again?williamglenn said:
And there are people like Penny Mordaunt who've disqualified themselves from holding office.0 -
They convince themselves they're not voting Leave so that they don't slip at work. Only in the polling booth do they realise they're voting Leave?JamesP said:
People who work in offices in such as mine, where the mere mention of voting leave is a stake through the heart of any potential career progression. Why you would lie to a pollster though, I'm not quite sure the logic follows through?HYUFD said:
Who are these shy Leavers? Leave is still on 44% with yougov, not 54%! As far as I can see it Leavers are more passionate than RemainersChameleon said:
Could it be that through the campaign few people's minds have changed, but up until a few weeks ago there was a cohort of shy leavers, they came out, but the Cox murder forced them back under?BenedictWhite said:
Well that's cleared that up then. Could be leave, could be remain.Scott_P said:@SamCoatesTimes: Exc Times / YouGov poll LEAVE 2 pts ahead
Remain 42 (-2)
Leave 44 (+1)
DK 9 (uc)
WNV 4 (uc)
1,652 adults online June 17-19 (previous J16-17)
Who knew? Edge not getting a look in?
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/7449985639486627840 -
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And other Leavers may have become "shy"?NickPalmer said:
I hate to say it because I don't actually think it's very fair, but I think the Jo Cox murder has had an effect, plus the Farage poster (there is polling that it's unpopular) - the combination of the two has put some Remainers into "keep the barbarians out" mode while some leavers may have wondered if they were quite comfortable with the Brexit camp.DanSmith said:Can anyone come up with a good reason why, after weeks of all voters giving much worse results for Remain than certain to vote, the complete opposite appears in this ORB poll?
0 -
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The Progressives were a semi-official grouping of the Tories and Liberals who contested local elections in Scotland. The Lib Dems might obect to the use of the name.OUT said:
Already a SUP.kle4 said:
I suggest the Scottish Unionist Party. You might still struggle to gather up every single strand of unionism, but it's signal the intent. And some drunk SNP voters might vote SUP by mistake.TheScreamingEagles said:Listen to Ruth
Ruth Davidson believes the Scottish Conservatives would have to break away from the UK party under a new name if Boris Johnson becomes Prime Minister, the Telegraph can disclose as the pair prepare to face off on Tuesday night in an EU referendum TV debate.
Senior sources close to the Scottish Tory leader said she thinks the former Mayor of London would be toxic to her party’s electoral hopes north of the Border if he succeeds David Cameron in the wake of a vote for Brexit on Thursday.
They said Ms Davidson predicts the Scottish Conservatives would have to “do a Murdo”, a reference to her former leadership rival Murdo Fraser’s controversial proposal to break away from the UK Tories and form a new right-wing party.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/20/ruth-davidson-believes-scottish-tories-would-break-away-if-boris/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
Murdo wanted Progressive Party name.
It was before my time but they were quite successful and ran Glasgow for a long period of time.0 -
Sound.HYUFD said:Telegraph backs Leave tomorrow, least shocking news of the campaign!
https://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/7450010302959124480 -
Let me clutch at straws!SandyRentool said:
They are probably actuaries.Casino_Royale said:
But why would they declare a reponse but then say they're not certain to vote?nunu said:
shy leavers.Sean_F said:
How weird is that?Scott_P said:@NCPoliticsEU: ORB/Telegraph (#EUref)
Certain to vote:
REMAIN 53 (+5)
LEAVE 46 (-3)
All adults:
REMAIN 49 (=)
LEAVE 47 (+3)
16th-19th
N=800
#Brexit0 -
Slightly strange introduction - "if this Thursday's referendum..."HYUFD said:Telegraph backs Leave tomorrow, least shocking news of the campaign!
https://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/745001030295912448
What if it isn't? Why not just state "This Thursday's referendum IS ..."?0 -
TBF both groups are rightSean_F said:
I think things have been said throughout this campaign which are hard to unsay. One group of Conservatives think the other are effete Metroplitan snobs. The other think their opponents are bigots with blood on their hands.felix said:
People have predicted the end of the party since RC emancipation in the 1829! Life and the party goes on.Sean_F said:
I think there is an ending coming to the Conservative Party. Just think of the numbers of Conservative-voting authorities that will vote Leave on Thursday.Alanbrooke said:
Whatever the result Mr F the referendum has just reinforced my view that there are a large block of people for whom the current political structures provide no representation.Sean_F said:
Of course. I was feeling depressed when I posted that.Casino_Royale said:
Why not the slightest doubt? Surely, there's always some doubt.Sean_F said:
Anecdotes are interesting, but there's not the slightest doubt that Remain will win this now.EPG said:
I bet people who know, much less marry, PBers are going to be more inclined to LEAVE than crude demography would suggest.OllyT said:
I was just thinking exactly that - particularly as every Leave vote that has been the subject of an anecdote has been a "surprise" as the poster would have expected them to vote Remain. Don't know why we are waiting till Friday to get the result really.midwinter said:
If the anecdotal evidence from here is a quarter way accurate Remain will do well to poll in the high teens.....EPG said:
Most of the anecdotes come from active campaigners for LEAVE, experiencing the natural politeness of the great English public; almost all come from their sympathisers.peter_from_putney said:Unless I'm very much mistaken, I would say that the anecdotal evidence offered on this site to date strongly favours LEAVE, paricularly with reference to large numbers of voters, eg the Nissan workforce vs a few dozen people in North London.
But then again, these are random reports, completely unsubstatiated and unweighted and although interesting, have about the same value as yesterday's fish and chips wrapping.
I think we can run close, but not reach 50%+.
It has all the feel of an ancien regime about to crumble. Certainly on the right there are lots of voters who now wont vote Conservative again. They have to go somewhere, time for a change.
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If you would like to meet, even for just for a coffee or a beer, (and I certainly would like to) then please drop an email at HurstLlama dot gmail dot com.BenedictWhite said:
Ah yes.HurstLlama said:
I know you do, Mr White, I tried to organise a luncheon if you remember? I live in in Hurstpierpoint and the estate I am talking about is Willow Way.BenedictWhite said:
*Cough*HurstLlama said:
That I think is spot on, Mr. B. Not only former Conservative voters either. Up the road from me is a post war council estate where a year or so back I did some work, on behalf of Mid-Sussex Council, trying to get people to register to vote. "Why should I bother nobody gives a feck about us" was the most common response, and I have to say that they had a point.Alanbrooke said:
Whatever the result Mr F the referendum has just reinforced my view that there are a large block of people for whom the current political structures provide no representation.
It has all the feel of an ancien regime about to crumble. Certainly on the right there are lots of voters who now wont vote Conservative again. They have to go somewhere, time for a change.
For example, at the time I was doing that work the more than adequate street lighting in my cul de sac was being upgraded because it did not comply to some new standard. Yet the street lighting on the Estate was so inadequate that in some parts it did not exist. It still has not been improved.
There are lots and lots of people who feel that the political parties do not represent them, that they are forgotten and do not matter. In such circumstances the "extremist" parties will prosper. I note that no one on here today has mentioned the new Mayoress of Rome.
Where do you live? I live in Mid Sussex....
No Need to cough.
Oh, re the potential Sussex PB Lunch, Miss Plato has said she is up for it. Nobody else bothered to reply.
Willow way.
I am not far away. Still up for a meet up. Could be north of the water.0 -
There are shy voters on both sides. Without doubt, there are jobs where admitting to voting Leave is like admitting to child molestation. But, there are places where admitting to Remain can generate a rough response.JamesP said:
People who work in offices in such as mine, where the mere mention of voting leave is a stake through the heart of any potential career progression. Why you would lie to a pollster though, I'm not quite sure the logic follows through?HYUFD said:
Who are these shy Leavers? Leave is still on 44% with yougov, not 54%! As far as I can see it Leavers are more passionate than RemainersChameleon said:
Could it be that through the campaign few people's minds have changed, but up until a few weeks ago there was a cohort of shy leavers, they came out, but the Cox murder forced them back under?BenedictWhite said:
Well that's cleared that up then. Could be leave, could be remain.Scott_P said:@SamCoatesTimes: Exc Times / YouGov poll LEAVE 2 pts ahead
Remain 42 (-2)
Leave 44 (+1)
DK 9 (uc)
WNV 4 (uc)
1,652 adults online June 17-19 (previous J16-17)
Who knew? Edge not getting a look in?
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/7449985639486627840 -
If Remain win this will be a huge personal victory for Cameron and to a lesser extent Osborne. He really hasn't had any sensible help from either Labour or the Lib Dems. In fact Labour have been a negative force.
Cameron's is not only the most successful Tory leader since Thatcher he's the most palatable in my life time. If there was an election next week I'd vote for him0 -
That's a much worse name - what does a Progressive Party stand for.OUT said:
Already a SUP.kle4 said:
I suggest the Scottish Unionist Party. You might still struggle to gather up every single strand of unionism, but it's signal the intent. And some drunk SNP voters might vote SUP by mistake.TheScreamingEagles said:Listen to Ruth
Ruth Davidson believes the Scottish Conservatives would have to break away from the UK party under a new name if Boris Johnson becomes Prime Minister, the Telegraph can disclose as the pair prepare to face off on Tuesday night in an EU referendum TV debate.
Senior sources close to the Scottish Tory leader said she thinks the former Mayor of London would be toxic to her party’s electoral hopes north of the Border if he succeeds David Cameron in the wake of a vote for Brexit on Thursday.
They said Ms Davidson predicts the Scottish Conservatives would have to “do a Murdo”, a reference to her former leadership rival Murdo Fraser’s controversial proposal to break away from the UK Tories and form a new right-wing party.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/20/ruth-davidson-believes-scottish-tories-would-break-away-if-boris/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
Murdo wanted Progressive Party name.
Scottish Unionist Posse?
Unionist Part of Scotland?
The Ruth Davidson Experience (feat. others)?0 -
As well as those, IG tomorrow and ComRes and TNS on Wednesday.Casino_Royale said:How many more polls to come in the next 72 hours? Three?
Yougov, Survation and IPSOS-Mori?
How come ORB are reporting "certain to vote" figures of Remain 53%, Leave 46%? They don't add up to 100%. Did some people say they were certain to vote a third way? Or were the figures exactly 53.5% and 46.5% and they got rounded down? That's possible, with n=800. Or they made a mistake. Is there a fourth possibility?0 -
We the British governmentThreeQuidder said:
We the British government or we the British people?London said:
Flat out lie on whether we have a veto on Turkey's membership of EU.viewcode said:
Ok, I've lost track. Why are we hating her again?williamglenn said:
And there are people like Penny Mordaunt who've disqualified themselves from holding office.0 -
It is a clash between the middle class and the young and the old and the working classkle4 said:
And yet is it still old people are coming out for Leave and they vote, the young are coming out for Remain and they are less likely to vote?HYUFD said:
The middle classes are coming out for Remain and they vote, the working classes are coming out for Leave and they are less likely to vote!DanSmith said:Can anyone come up with a good reason why, after weeks of all voters giving much worse results for Remain than certain to vote, the complete opposite appears in this ORB poll?
0 -
If you want to see the future, then imagine a Unicorn's hoof, pressed down on the back of a lion. Forever.TheScreamingEagles said:twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/745002013365272576
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My Facebook feed went ape shit. Wall to wall Remain fervour.NickPalmer said:FWIW, anecdotally I do think that last week's polls woke up Remain's supporters big time - people who were Remain but previously only vaguely interested started getting seriously concerned, asking for posters, telling their friends to make sure to vote, etc.
0 -
(deleted)
0 -
Survations final poll is also tomorrow... Hopefully they won't rip this one up if it doesn't fit the "narrative" :innocent_face:John_N4 said:
As well as those, IG tomorrow and ComRes and TNS on Wednesday.Casino_Royale said:How many more polls to come in the next 72 hours? Three?
Yougov, Survation and IPSOS-Mori?
How come ORB are reporting "certain to vote" figures of Remain 53%, Leave 46%? They don't add up to 100%. Did some people say they were certain to vote a third way? Or were the figures exactly 53.5% and 46.5% and they got rounded down? Or they made a mistake. Is there a fourth possibility?0 -
Combine this with Tyson's statement Osborne is not so bad, and we see how the world has gone mad in this referendum.Roger said:
Cameron's is not only the most successful Tory leader since Thatcher he's the most palatable in my life time. If there was an election next week I'd vote for him
I will say Osborne has put the effort in, and not shied away from this like some other Remainers. Perhaps he had to, perhaps he was wrong to insist he do so, but he's gone for it.
0 -
Sums it up!HYUFD said:
It is a clash between the middle class and the young and the old and the working classkle4 said:
And yet is it still old people are coming out for Leave and they vote, the young are coming out for Remain and they are less likely to vote?HYUFD said:
The middle classes are coming out for Remain and they vote, the working classes are coming out for Leave and they are less likely to vote!DanSmith said:Can anyone come up with a good reason why, after weeks of all voters giving much worse results for Remain than certain to vote, the complete opposite appears in this ORB poll?
0 -
This has a 1992 GE feel for me. Everyone saying they'd give Kinnock a chance, until they got into the polling booth and switched.GIN1138 said:
And other Leavers may have become "shy"?NickPalmer said:
I hate to say it because I don't actually think it's very fair, but I think the Jo Cox murder has had an effect, plus the Farage poster (there is polling that it's unpopular) - the combination of the two has put some Remainers into "keep the barbarians out" mode while some leavers may have wondered if they were quite comfortable with the Brexit camp.DanSmith said:Can anyone come up with a good reason why, after weeks of all voters giving much worse results for Remain than certain to vote, the complete opposite appears in this ORB poll?
0 -
Ladbrokes continue to offer "Less than 1% margin of victory for either side" at 16/1 .... this looks like value to me but make up your own mind!
DYOR.0 -
Lol. We'll have find some madeup/misinterpretable quotes from the eighties about Mandela. That'll calm you down.Roger said:If Remain win this will be a huge personal victory for Cameron and to a lesser extent Osborne. He really hasn't had any sensible help from either Labour or the Lib Dems. In fact Labour have been a negative force.
Cameron's is not only the most successful Tory leader since Thatcher he's the most palatable in my life time. If there was an election next week I'd vote for him
By the way - "the LibDems"? Who, precisely?
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Ah, so Leave will win then? ;-)AramintaMoonbeamQC said:
This has a 1992 GE feel for me. Everyone saying they'd give Kinnock a chance, until they got into the polling booth and switched.GIN1138 said:
And other Leavers may have become "shy"?NickPalmer said:
I hate to say it because I don't actually think it's very fair, but I think the Jo Cox murder has had an effect, plus the Farage poster (there is polling that it's unpopular) - the combination of the two has put some Remainers into "keep the barbarians out" mode while some leavers may have wondered if they were quite comfortable with the Brexit camp.DanSmith said:Can anyone come up with a good reason why, after weeks of all voters giving much worse results for Remain than certain to vote, the complete opposite appears in this ORB poll?
0 -
@tnewtondunn: EXCL: David Cameron accuses Michael Gove of “Donald Trump-style” politics for rubbishing experts' EU views; https://t.co/6RtauqshEO0
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Boris's battle bus driver?Sean_F said:
There are shy voters on both sides. Without doubt, there are jobs where admitting to voting Leave is like admitting to child molestation. But, there are places where admitting to Remain can generate a rough response.JamesP said:
People who work in offices in such as mine, where the mere mention of voting leave is a stake through the heart of any potential career progression. Why you would lie to a pollster though, I'm not quite sure the logic follows through?HYUFD said:
Who are these shy Leavers? Leave is still on 44% with yougov, not 54%! As far as I can see it Leavers are more passionate than RemainersChameleon said:
Could it be that through the campaign few people's minds have changed, but up until a few weeks ago there was a cohort of shy leavers, they came out, but the Cox murder forced them back under?BenedictWhite said:
Well that's cleared that up then. Could be leave, could be remain.Scott_P said:@SamCoatesTimes: Exc Times / YouGov poll LEAVE 2 pts ahead
Remain 42 (-2)
Leave 44 (+1)
DK 9 (uc)
WNV 4 (uc)
1,652 adults online June 17-19 (previous J16-17)
Who knew? Edge not getting a look in?
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/7449985639486627840
