They do the British social attitudes survey with, I think 3000 targets who are selected at random and are hunted down for responses. Polling companies use it as a reference for their weighting strategies as they can't afford that kind of rigour.
" They hunt them down"?
I think the canvassers are told to return to the stubborn ones up to ten times to get a response. It means they can use a randomly selected sample. Polling companies have to use demographic weightings to get to a somewhat representative sample. These are subjective to a degree and prone to error, particularly with one off referendums with no historical known data to work with. You can be sure polling companies will compare their polls with this survey and could well make adjustments to their weighting algorithms on the back of it.
ORB are fairly irrelevant - it was always to be expected that this week's events would lead to phone pollsters finding that leave was less obviously reported, and they have always been among the most favourable Remain pollsters.
Natcen however. They do it in a genuinely academic fashion. I can't pass comment on their phone/online operation, but I presume it's to the same rigour they apply face to face, which is substantial. First time I've thought Remain might win in the last two/three weeks.
Unless I'm very much mistaken, I would say that the anecdotal evidence offered on this site to date strongly favours LEAVE, paricularly with reference to large numbers of voters, eg the Nissan workforce vs a few dozen people in North London. But then again, these are random reports, completely unsubstatiated and unweighted and although interesting, have about the same value as yesterday's fish and chips wrapping.
Most of the anecdotes come from active campaigners for LEAVE, experiencing the natural politeness of the great English public; almost all come from their sympathisers.
If the anecdotal evidence from here is a quarter way accurate Remain will do well to poll in the high teens.....
I was just thinking exactly that - particularly as every Leave vote that has been the subject of an anecdote has been a "surprise" as the poster would have expected them to vote Remain. Don't know why we are waiting till Friday to get the result really.
I bet people who know, much less marry, PBers are going to be more inclined to LEAVE than crude demography would suggest.
Anecdotes are interesting, but there's not the slightest doubt that Remain will win this now.
Why not the slightest doubt? Surely, there's always some doubt.
Of course. I was feeling depressed when I posted that.
I think we can run close, but not reach 50%+.
Whatever the result Mr F the referendum has just reinforced my view that there are a large block of people for whom the current political structures provide no representation.
It has all the feel of an ancien regime about to crumble. Certainly on the right there are lots of voters who now wont vote Conservative again. They have to go somewhere, time for a change.
I think there is an ending coming to the Conservative Party. Just think of the numbers of Conservative-voting authorities that will vote Leave on Thursday.
People have predicted the end of the party since RC emancipation in the 1829! Life and the party goes on.
I think things have been said throughout this campaign which are hard to unsay. One group of Conservatives think the other are effete Metroplitan snobs. The other think their opponents are bigots with blood on their hands.
And there are people like Penny Mordaunt who've disqualified themselves from holding office.
Could it be that through the campaign few people's minds have changed, but up until a few weeks ago there was a cohort of shy leavers, they came out, but the Cox murder forced them back under?
Ruth Davidson believes the Scottish Conservatives would have to break away from the UK party under a new name if Boris Johnson becomes Prime Minister, the Telegraph can disclose as the pair prepare to face off on Tuesday night in an EU referendum TV debate.
Senior sources close to the Scottish Tory leader said she thinks the former Mayor of London would be toxic to her party’s electoral hopes north of the Border if he succeeds David Cameron in the wake of a vote for Brexit on Thursday.
They said Ms Davidson predicts the Scottish Conservatives would have to “do a Murdo”, a reference to her former leadership rival Murdo Fraser’s controversial proposal to break away from the UK Tories and form a new right-wing party.
Whatever the result Mr F the referendum has just reinforced my view that there are a large block of people for whom the current political structures provide no representation.
It has all the feel of an ancien regime about to crumble. Certainly on the right there are lots of voters who now wont vote Conservative again. They have to go somewhere, time for a change.
That I think is spot on, Mr. B. Not only former Conservative voters either. Up the road from me is a post war council estate where a year or so back I did some work, on behalf of Mid-Sussex Council, trying to get people to register to vote. "Why should I bother nobody gives a feck about us" was the most common response, and I have to say that they had a point.
For example, at the time I was doing that work the more than adequate street lighting in my cul de sac was being upgraded because it did not comply to some new standard. Yet the street lighting on the Estate was so inadequate that in some parts it did not exist. It still has not been improved.
There are lots and lots of people who feel that the political parties do not represent them, that they are forgotten and do not matter. In such circumstances the "extremist" parties will prosper. I note that no one on here today has mentioned the new Mayoress of Rome.
*Cough*
Where do you live? I live in Mid Sussex....
I know you do, Mr White, I tried to organise a luncheon if you remember? I live in in Hurstpierpoint and the estate I am talking about is Willow Way.
No Need to cough.
Oh, re the potential Sussex PB Lunch, Miss Plato has said she is up for it. Nobody else bothered to reply.
ORB are fairly irrelevant - it was always to be expected that this week's events would lead to phone pollsters finding that leave was less obviously reported, and they have always been among the most favourable Remain pollsters.
Natcen however. They do it in a genuinely academic fashion. I can't pass comment on their phone/online operation, but I presume it's to the same rigour they apply face to face, which is substantial. First time I've thought Remain might win in the last two/three weeks.
Nat Cen are pretty much what I expect the result to be.
Ruth Davidson believes the Scottish Conservatives would have to break away from the UK party under a new name if Boris Johnson becomes Prime Minister, the Telegraph can disclose as the pair prepare to face off on Tuesday night in an EU referendum TV debate.
Senior sources close to the Scottish Tory leader said she thinks the former Mayor of London would be toxic to her party’s electoral hopes north of the Border if he succeeds David Cameron in the wake of a vote for Brexit on Thursday.
They said Ms Davidson predicts the Scottish Conservatives would have to “do a Murdo”, a reference to her former leadership rival Murdo Fraser’s controversial proposal to break away from the UK Tories and form a new right-wing party.
I suggest the Scottish Unionist Party. You might still struggle to gather up every single strand of unionism, but it's signal the intent. And some drunk SNP voters might vote SUP by mistake.
Whatever the result Mr F the referendum has just reinforced my view that there are a large block of people for whom the current political structures provide no representation.
It has all the feel of an ancien regime about to crumble. Certainly on the right there are lots of voters who now wont vote Conservative again. They have to go somewhere, time for a change.
That I think is spot on, Mr. B. Not only former Conservative voters either. Up the road from me is a post war council estate where a year or so back I did some work, on behalf of Mid-Sussex Council, trying to get people to register to vote. "Why should I bother nobody gives a feck about us" was the most common response, and I have to say that they had a point.
For example, at the time I was doing that work the more than adequate street lighting in my cul de sac was being upgraded because it did not comply to some new standard. Yet the street lighting on the Estate was so inadequate that in some parts it did not exist. It still has not been improved.
There are lots and lots of people who feel that the political parties do not represent them, that they are forgotten and do not matter. In such circumstances the "extremist" parties will prosper. I note that no one on here today has mentioned the new Mayoress of Rome.
*Cough*
Where do you live? I live in Mid Sussex....
I know you do, Mr White, I tried to organise a luncheon if you remember? I live in in Hurstpierpoint and the estate I am talking about is Willow Way.
No Need to cough.
Oh, re the potential Sussex PB Lunch, Miss Plato has said she is up for it. Nobody else bothered to reply.
Ah yes.
Willow way.
I am not far away. Still up for a meet up. Could be north of the water.
Can anyone come up with a good reason why, after weeks of all voters giving much worse results for Remain than certain to vote, the complete opposite appears in this ORB poll?
Could it be that through the campaign few people's minds have changed, but up until a few weeks ago there was a cohort of shy leavers, they came out, but the Cox murder forced them back under?
Who are these shy Leavers? Leave is still on 44% with yougov, not 54%! As far as I can see it Leavers are more passionate than Remainers
FWIW, anecdotally I do think that last week's polls woke up Remain's supporters big time - people who were Remain but previously only vaguely interested started getting seriously concerned, asking for posters, telling their friends to make sure to vote, etc.
Peole have said for year that it's do the Scottish Tories good to become an independent party.
SLAB should have done it after Iraq.
Surely both SLab and the Ruth Davidson For A Strong Opposition Party are Better Together with their colleagues in the rest of the UK, pooling and sharing for the benefit of all?
Ruth Davidson believes the Scottish Conservatives would have to break away from the UK party under a new name if Boris Johnson becomes Prime Minister, the Telegraph can disclose as the pair prepare to face off on Tuesday night in an EU referendum TV debate.
Senior sources close to the Scottish Tory leader said she thinks the former Mayor of London would be toxic to her party’s electoral hopes north of the Border if he succeeds David Cameron in the wake of a vote for Brexit on Thursday.
They said Ms Davidson predicts the Scottish Conservatives would have to “do a Murdo”, a reference to her former leadership rival Murdo Fraser’s controversial proposal to break away from the UK Tories and form a new right-wing party.
Can anyone come up with a good reason why, after weeks of all voters giving much worse results for Remain than certain to vote, the complete opposite appears in this ORB poll?
The middle classes are coming out for Remain and they vote, the working classes are coming out for Leave and they are less likely to vote!
Can anyone come up with a good reason why, after weeks of all voters giving much worse results for Remain than certain to vote, the complete opposite appears in this ORB poll?
Certainty to vote. Check out the links to the Telegraph piece with the figures.
FWIW, anecdotally I do think that last week's polls woke up Remain's supporters big time - people who were Remain but previously only vaguely interested started getting seriously concerned, asking for posters, telling their friends to make sure to vote, etc.
Could it be that through the campaign few people's minds have changed, but up until a few weeks ago there was a cohort of shy leavers, they came out, but the Cox murder forced them back under?
Who are these shy Leavers? Leave is still on 44% with yougov, not 54%! As far as I can see it Leavers are more passionate than Remainers
It seems like I forgot to finish my post, so the gap has reopened between phone and online due to leavers not declaring their intentions to the nice lady on the phone.
Could it be that through the campaign few people's minds have changed, but up until a few weeks ago there was a cohort of shy leavers, they came out, but the Cox murder forced them back under?
Who are these shy Leavers? Leave is still on 44% with yougov, not 54%! As far as I can see it Leavers are more passionate than Remainers
People who work in offices in such as mine, where the mere mention of voting leave is a stake through the heart of any potential career progression. Why you would lie to a pollster though, I'm not quite sure the logic follows through?
Ruth Davidson believes the Scottish Conservatives would have to break away from the UK party under a new name if Boris Johnson becomes Prime Minister, the Telegraph can disclose as the pair prepare to face off on Tuesday night in an EU referendum TV debate.
Senior sources close to the Scottish Tory leader said she thinks the former Mayor of London would be toxic to her party’s electoral hopes north of the Border if he succeeds David Cameron in the wake of a vote for Brexit on Thursday.
They said Ms Davidson predicts the Scottish Conservatives would have to “do a Murdo”, a reference to her former leadership rival Murdo Fraser’s controversial proposal to break away from the UK Tories and form a new right-wing party.
I suggest the Scottish Unionist Party. You might still struggle to gather up every single strand of unionism, but it's signal the intent. And some drunk SNP voters might vote SUP by mistake.
After the Scottish Tories dissolved the Scottish Unionist Party the name was taken up by another party. I don't think it is available.
Peole have said for year that it's do the Scottish Tories good to become an independent party.
SLAB should have done it after Iraq.
Surely both SLab and the Ruth Davidson For A Strong Opposition Party are Better Together with their colleagues in the rest of the UK, pooling and sharing for the benefit of all?
Well SLAB is essentially a deceased Party and the Scottish Tories are only showing occasional flickers of life....
Can anyone come up with a good reason why, after weeks of all voters giving much worse results for Remain than certain to vote, the complete opposite appears in this ORB poll?
The middle classes are coming out for Remain and they vote, the working classes are coming out for Leave and they are less likely to vote!
And yet is it still old people are coming out for Leave and they vote, the young are coming out for Remain and they are less likely to vote?
Ruth Davidson believes the Scottish Conservatives would have to break away from the UK party under a new name if Boris Johnson becomes Prime Minister, the Telegraph can disclose as the pair prepare to face off on Tuesday night in an EU referendum TV debate.
Senior sources close to the Scottish Tory leader said she thinks the former Mayor of London would be toxic to her party’s electoral hopes north of the Border if he succeeds David Cameron in the wake of a vote for Brexit on Thursday.
They said Ms Davidson predicts the Scottish Conservatives would have to “do a Murdo”, a reference to her former leadership rival Murdo Fraser’s controversial proposal to break away from the UK Tories and form a new right-wing party.
I suggest the Scottish Unionist Party. You might still struggle to gather up every single strand of unionism, but it's signal the intent. And some drunk SNP voters might vote SUP by mistake.
Already a SUP. Murdo wanted Progressive Party name.
And there are people like Penny Mordaunt who've disqualified themselves from holding office.
Ok, I've lost track. Why are we hating her again?
Flat out lie on whether we have a veto on Turkey's membership of EU.
Are you sure she wasn't just mistaken? The quality of debate is so poor, I actually think these people are ill informed. (MPs were certainly clueless over Iraq)
Many, me including me, called it for Leave when they got a confluence of great polls. Now, that's because I never learn not to overreact, but I shall try, and so not now call it for Remain based of a series of good polls.
Demographics, message, passion, all favour Leave.
demographics is swings and roundabouts, is about GOTV now thats all and shy leavers.
Can anyone come up with a good reason why, after weeks of all voters giving much worse results for Remain than certain to vote, the complete opposite appears in this ORB poll?
I hate to say it because I don't actually think it's very fair, but I think the Jo Cox murder has had an effect, plus the Farage poster (there is polling that it's unpopular) - the combination of the two has put some Remainers into "keep the barbarians out" mode while some leavers may have wondered if they were quite comfortable with the Brexit camp.
Could it be that through the campaign few people's minds have changed, but up until a few weeks ago there was a cohort of shy leavers, they came out, but the Cox murder forced them back under?
Who are these shy Leavers? Leave is still on 44% with yougov, not 54%! As far as I can see it Leavers are more passionate than Remainers
People who work in offices in such as mine, where the mere mention of voting leave is a stake through the heart of any potential career progression. Why you would lie to a pollster though, I'm not quite sure the logic follows through?
They convince themselves they're not voting Leave so that they don't slip at work. Only in the polling booth do they realise they're voting Leave?
Can anyone come up with a good reason why, after weeks of all voters giving much worse results for Remain than certain to vote, the complete opposite appears in this ORB poll?
I hate to say it because I don't actually think it's very fair, but I think the Jo Cox murder has had an effect, plus the Farage poster (there is polling that it's unpopular) - the combination of the two has put some Remainers into "keep the barbarians out" mode while some leavers may have wondered if they were quite comfortable with the Brexit camp.
Ruth Davidson believes the Scottish Conservatives would have to break away from the UK party under a new name if Boris Johnson becomes Prime Minister, the Telegraph can disclose as the pair prepare to face off on Tuesday night in an EU referendum TV debate.
Senior sources close to the Scottish Tory leader said she thinks the former Mayor of London would be toxic to her party’s electoral hopes north of the Border if he succeeds David Cameron in the wake of a vote for Brexit on Thursday.
They said Ms Davidson predicts the Scottish Conservatives would have to “do a Murdo”, a reference to her former leadership rival Murdo Fraser’s controversial proposal to break away from the UK Tories and form a new right-wing party.
I suggest the Scottish Unionist Party. You might still struggle to gather up every single strand of unionism, but it's signal the intent. And some drunk SNP voters might vote SUP by mistake.
Already a SUP. Murdo wanted Progressive Party name.
The Progressives were a semi-official grouping of the Tories and Liberals who contested local elections in Scotland. The Lib Dems might obect to the use of the name.
It was before my time but they were quite successful and ran Glasgow for a long period of time.
Unless I'm very much mistaken, I would say that the anecdotal evidence offered on this site to date strongly favours LEAVE, paricularly with reference to large numbers of voters, eg the Nissan workforce vs a few dozen people in North London. But then again, these are random reports, completely unsubstatiated and unweighted and although interesting, have about the same value as yesterday's fish and chips wrapping.
Most of the anecdotes come from active campaigners for LEAVE, experiencing the natural politeness of the great English public; almost all come from their sympathisers.
If the anecdotal evidence from here is a quarter way accurate Remain will do well to poll in the high teens.....
I was just thinking exactly that - particularly as every Leave vote that has been the subject of an anecdote has been a "surprise" as the poster would have expected them to vote Remain. Don't know why we are waiting till Friday to get the result really.
I bet people who know, much less marry, PBers are going to be more inclined to LEAVE than crude demography would suggest.
Anecdotes are interesting, but there's not the slightest doubt that Remain will win this now.
Why not the slightest doubt? Surely, there's always some doubt.
Of course. I was feeling depressed when I posted that.
I think we can run close, but not reach 50%+.
Whatever the result Mr F the referendum has just reinforced my view that there are a large block of people for whom the current political structures provide no representation.
It has all the feel of an ancien regime about to crumble. Certainly on the right there are lots of voters who now wont vote Conservative again. They have to go somewhere, time for a change.
I think there is an ending coming to the Conservative Party. Just think of the numbers of Conservative-voting authorities that will vote Leave on Thursday.
People have predicted the end of the party since RC emancipation in the 1829! Life and the party goes on.
I think things have been said throughout this campaign which are hard to unsay. One group of Conservatives think the other are effete Metroplitan snobs. The other think their opponents are bigots with blood on their hands.
Whatever the result Mr F the referendum has just reinforced my view that there are a large block of people for whom the current political structures provide no representation.
It has all the feel of an ancien regime about to crumble. Certainly on the right there are lots of voters who now wont vote Conservative again. They have to go somewhere, time for a change.
That I think is spot on, Mr. B. Not only former Conservative voters either. Up the road from me is a post war council estate where a year or so back I did some work, on behalf of Mid-Sussex Council, trying to get people to register to vote. "Why should I bother nobody gives a feck about us" was the most common response, and I have to say that they had a point.
For example, at the time I was doing that work the more than adequate street lighting in my cul de sac was being upgraded because it did not comply to some new standard. Yet the street lighting on the Estate was so inadequate that in some parts it did not exist. It still has not been improved.
There are lots and lots of people who feel that the political parties do not represent them, that they are forgotten and do not matter. In such circumstances the "extremist" parties will prosper. I note that no one on here today has mentioned the new Mayoress of Rome.
*Cough*
Where do you live? I live in Mid Sussex....
I know you do, Mr White, I tried to organise a luncheon if you remember? I live in in Hurstpierpoint and the estate I am talking about is Willow Way.
No Need to cough.
Oh, re the potential Sussex PB Lunch, Miss Plato has said she is up for it. Nobody else bothered to reply.
Ah yes.
Willow way.
I am not far away. Still up for a meet up. Could be north of the water.
If you would like to meet, even for just for a coffee or a beer, (and I certainly would like to) then please drop an email at HurstLlama dot gmail dot com.
Could it be that through the campaign few people's minds have changed, but up until a few weeks ago there was a cohort of shy leavers, they came out, but the Cox murder forced them back under?
Who are these shy Leavers? Leave is still on 44% with yougov, not 54%! As far as I can see it Leavers are more passionate than Remainers
People who work in offices in such as mine, where the mere mention of voting leave is a stake through the heart of any potential career progression. Why you would lie to a pollster though, I'm not quite sure the logic follows through?
There are shy voters on both sides. Without doubt, there are jobs where admitting to voting Leave is like admitting to child molestation. But, there are places where admitting to Remain can generate a rough response.
If Remain win this will be a huge personal victory for Cameron and to a lesser extent Osborne. He really hasn't had any sensible help from either Labour or the Lib Dems. In fact Labour have been a negative force.
Cameron's is not only the most successful Tory leader since Thatcher he's the most palatable in my life time. If there was an election next week I'd vote for him
Ruth Davidson believes the Scottish Conservatives would have to break away from the UK party under a new name if Boris Johnson becomes Prime Minister, the Telegraph can disclose as the pair prepare to face off on Tuesday night in an EU referendum TV debate.
Senior sources close to the Scottish Tory leader said she thinks the former Mayor of London would be toxic to her party’s electoral hopes north of the Border if he succeeds David Cameron in the wake of a vote for Brexit on Thursday.
They said Ms Davidson predicts the Scottish Conservatives would have to “do a Murdo”, a reference to her former leadership rival Murdo Fraser’s controversial proposal to break away from the UK Tories and form a new right-wing party.
I suggest the Scottish Unionist Party. You might still struggle to gather up every single strand of unionism, but it's signal the intent. And some drunk SNP voters might vote SUP by mistake.
Already a SUP. Murdo wanted Progressive Party name.
That's a much worse name - what does a Progressive Party stand for.
Scottish Unionist Posse? Unionist Part of Scotland? The Ruth Davidson Experience (feat. others)?
How many more polls to come in the next 72 hours? Three?
Yougov, Survation and IPSOS-Mori?
As well as those, IG tomorrow and ComRes and TNS on Wednesday.
How come ORB are reporting "certain to vote" figures of Remain 53%, Leave 46%? They don't add up to 100%. Did some people say they were certain to vote a third way? Or were the figures exactly 53.5% and 46.5% and they got rounded down? That's possible, with n=800. Or they made a mistake. Is there a fourth possibility?
Can anyone come up with a good reason why, after weeks of all voters giving much worse results for Remain than certain to vote, the complete opposite appears in this ORB poll?
The middle classes are coming out for Remain and they vote, the working classes are coming out for Leave and they are less likely to vote!
And yet is it still old people are coming out for Leave and they vote, the young are coming out for Remain and they are less likely to vote?
It is a clash between the middle class and the young and the old and the working class
FWIW, anecdotally I do think that last week's polls woke up Remain's supporters big time - people who were Remain but previously only vaguely interested started getting seriously concerned, asking for posters, telling their friends to make sure to vote, etc.
My Facebook feed went ape shit. Wall to wall Remain fervour.
Cameron's is not only the most successful Tory leader since Thatcher he's the most palatable in my life time. If there was an election next week I'd vote for him
Combine this with Tyson's statement Osborne is not so bad, and we see how the world has gone mad in this referendum.
I will say Osborne has put the effort in, and not shied away from this like some other Remainers. Perhaps he had to, perhaps he was wrong to insist he do so, but he's gone for it.
How many more polls to come in the next 72 hours? Three?
Yougov, Survation and IPSOS-Mori?
As well as those, IG tomorrow and ComRes and TNS on Wednesday.
How come ORB are reporting "certain to vote" figures of Remain 53%, Leave 46%? They don't add up to 100%. Did some people say they were certain to vote a third way? Or were the figures exactly 53.5% and 46.5% and they got rounded down? Or they made a mistake. Is there a fourth possibility?
Survations final poll is also tomorrow... Hopefully they won't rip this one up if it doesn't fit the "narrative" :innocent_face:
Can anyone come up with a good reason why, after weeks of all voters giving much worse results for Remain than certain to vote, the complete opposite appears in this ORB poll?
The middle classes are coming out for Remain and they vote, the working classes are coming out for Leave and they are less likely to vote!
And yet is it still old people are coming out for Leave and they vote, the young are coming out for Remain and they are less likely to vote?
It is a clash between the middle class and the young and the old and the working class
Can anyone come up with a good reason why, after weeks of all voters giving much worse results for Remain than certain to vote, the complete opposite appears in this ORB poll?
I hate to say it because I don't actually think it's very fair, but I think the Jo Cox murder has had an effect, plus the Farage poster (there is polling that it's unpopular) - the combination of the two has put some Remainers into "keep the barbarians out" mode while some leavers may have wondered if they were quite comfortable with the Brexit camp.
And other Leavers may have become "shy"?
This has a 1992 GE feel for me. Everyone saying they'd give Kinnock a chance, until they got into the polling booth and switched.
If Remain win this will be a huge personal victory for Cameron and to a lesser extent Osborne. He really hasn't had any sensible help from either Labour or the Lib Dems. In fact Labour have been a negative force.
Cameron's is not only the most successful Tory leader since Thatcher he's the most palatable in my life time. If there was an election next week I'd vote for him
Lol. We'll have find some madeup/misinterpretable quotes from the eighties about Mandela. That'll calm you down.
Can anyone come up with a good reason why, after weeks of all voters giving much worse results for Remain than certain to vote, the complete opposite appears in this ORB poll?
I hate to say it because I don't actually think it's very fair, but I think the Jo Cox murder has had an effect, plus the Farage poster (there is polling that it's unpopular) - the combination of the two has put some Remainers into "keep the barbarians out" mode while some leavers may have wondered if they were quite comfortable with the Brexit camp.
And other Leavers may have become "shy"?
This has a 1992 GE feel for me. Everyone saying they'd give Kinnock a chance, until they got into the polling booth and switched.
Could it be that through the campaign few people's minds have changed, but up until a few weeks ago there was a cohort of shy leavers, they came out, but the Cox murder forced them back under?
Who are these shy Leavers? Leave is still on 44% with yougov, not 54%! As far as I can see it Leavers are more passionate than Remainers
People who work in offices in such as mine, where the mere mention of voting leave is a stake through the heart of any potential career progression. Why you would lie to a pollster though, I'm not quite sure the logic follows through?
There are shy voters on both sides. Without doubt, there are jobs where admitting to voting Leave is like admitting to child molestation. But, there are places where admitting to Remain can generate a rough response.
Comments
Natcen however. They do it in a genuinely academic fashion. I can't pass comment on their phone/online operation, but I presume it's to the same rigour they apply face to face, which is substantial. First time I've thought Remain might win in the last two/three weeks.
Remain 42 (-2)
Leave 44 (+1)
DK 9 (uc)
WNV 4 (uc)
1,652 adults online June 17-19 (previous J16-17)
Remain 42 (-2)
Leave 44 (+1)
DK 9 (uc)
WNV 4 (uc)
1,652 adults online June 17-19 (previous J16-17)
(Edit: and that's before this tournament.)
Britain Elects @britainelects 41s41 seconds ago
EU referendum poll:
Remain: 42% (-2)
Leave: 44% (+1)
(via YouGov, online / 17 - 19 Jun)
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/744998563948662784
I'm not letting go of those straws yet!
England rubbish, Wales bloody good.
Who knew? Edge not getting a look in?
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/744998563948662784
Yougov, Survation and IPSOS-Mori?
@TelePolitics: Ruth Davidson 'believes Scottish Tories would break away if Boris Johnson becomes PM' https://t.co/WamgN2qq0R
Ruth Davidson believes the Scottish Conservatives would have to break away from the UK party under a new name if Boris Johnson becomes Prime Minister, the Telegraph can disclose as the pair prepare to face off on Tuesday night in an EU referendum TV debate.
Senior sources close to the Scottish Tory leader said she thinks the former Mayor of London would be toxic to her party’s electoral hopes north of the Border if he succeeds David Cameron in the wake of a vote for Brexit on Thursday.
They said Ms Davidson predicts the Scottish Conservatives would have to “do a Murdo”, a reference to her former leadership rival Murdo Fraser’s controversial proposal to break away from the UK Tories and form a new right-wing party.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/20/ruth-davidson-believes-scottish-tories-would-break-away-if-boris/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
No Need to cough.
Oh, re the potential Sussex PB Lunch, Miss Plato has said she is up for it. Nobody else bothered to reply.
SLAB should have done it after Iraq.
Willow way.
I am not far away. Still up for a meet up. Could be north of the water.
You'll know my poll. I was the one voter that wanted to Leave and not have immigration controls. I will now ride off on my unicorn.
Murdo wanted Progressive Party name.
https://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/745001030295912448
It was before my time but they were quite successful and ran Glasgow for a long period of time.
What if it isn't? Why not just state "This Thursday's referendum IS ..."?
Cameron's is not only the most successful Tory leader since Thatcher he's the most palatable in my life time. If there was an election next week I'd vote for him
Scottish Unionist Posse?
Unionist Part of Scotland?
The Ruth Davidson Experience (feat. others)?
How come ORB are reporting "certain to vote" figures of Remain 53%, Leave 46%? They don't add up to 100%. Did some people say they were certain to vote a third way? Or were the figures exactly 53.5% and 46.5% and they got rounded down? That's possible, with n=800. Or they made a mistake. Is there a fourth possibility?
I will say Osborne has put the effort in, and not shied away from this like some other Remainers. Perhaps he had to, perhaps he was wrong to insist he do so, but he's gone for it.
DYOR.
By the way - "the LibDems"? Who, precisely?