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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The referendum: The affluent versus the non-affluent summed

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  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,428
    GIN1138 said:

    FF43 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    The NatCen poll

    Who?
    They do the British social attitudes survey with, I think 3000 targets who are selected at random and are hunted down for responses. Polling companies use it as a reference for their weighting strategies as they can't afford that kind of rigour.
    " They hunt them down"? :open_mouth:
    I think the canvassers are told to return to the stubborn ones up to ten times to get a response. It means they can use a randomly selected sample. Polling companies have to use demographic weightings to get to a somewhat representative sample. These are subjective to a degree and prone to error, particularly with one off referendums with no historical known data to work with. You can be sure polling companies will compare their polls with this survey and could well make adjustments to their weighting algorithms on the back of it.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,270

    Now this is interesting look at the ALL VOTERS figures

    https://twitter.com/NCPoliticsEU/status/744997556372017153

    This is not about the certain to vote. It is about who normally votes Can't Be Arsed. Will they change sides?
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    edited June 2016
    ORB are fairly irrelevant - it was always to be expected that this week's events would lead to phone pollsters finding that leave was less obviously reported, and they have always been among the most favourable Remain pollsters.

    Natcen however. They do it in a genuinely academic fashion. I can't pass comment on their phone/online operation, but I presume it's to the same rigour they apply face to face, which is substantial. First time I've thought Remain might win in the last two/three weeks.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @SamCoatesTimes: Exc Times / YouGov poll LEAVE 2 pts ahead
    Remain 42 (-2)
    Leave 44 (+1)
    DK 9 (uc)
    WNV 4 (uc)
    1,652 adults online June 17-19 (previous J16-17)
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,927
    Sean_F said:

    felix said:

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    EPG said:

    OllyT said:

    midwinter said:

    EPG said:

    Unless I'm very much mistaken, I would say that the anecdotal evidence offered on this site to date strongly favours LEAVE, paricularly with reference to large numbers of voters, eg the Nissan workforce vs a few dozen people in North London.
    But then again, these are random reports, completely unsubstatiated and unweighted and although interesting, have about the same value as yesterday's fish and chips wrapping.

    Most of the anecdotes come from active campaigners for LEAVE, experiencing the natural politeness of the great English public; almost all come from their sympathisers.
    If the anecdotal evidence from here is a quarter way accurate Remain will do well to poll in the high teens.....
    I was just thinking exactly that - particularly as every Leave vote that has been the subject of an anecdote has been a "surprise" as the poster would have expected them to vote Remain. Don't know why we are waiting till Friday to get the result really.
    I bet people who know, much less marry, PBers are going to be more inclined to LEAVE than crude demography would suggest.
    Anecdotes are interesting, but there's not the slightest doubt that Remain will win this now.
    Why not the slightest doubt? Surely, there's always some doubt.
    Of course. I was feeling depressed when I posted that.

    I think we can run close, but not reach 50%+.
    Whatever the result Mr F the referendum has just reinforced my view that there are a large block of people for whom the current political structures provide no representation.

    It has all the feel of an ancien regime about to crumble. Certainly on the right there are lots of voters who now wont vote Conservative again. They have to go somewhere, time for a change.
    I think there is an ending coming to the Conservative Party. Just think of the numbers of Conservative-voting authorities that will vote Leave on Thursday.
    People have predicted the end of the party since RC emancipation in the 1829! Life and the party goes on.
    I think things have been said throughout this campaign which are hard to unsay. One group of Conservatives think the other are effete Metroplitan snobs. The other think their opponents are bigots with blood on their hands.
    And there are people like Penny Mordaunt who've disqualified themselves from holding office.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,164
    Scott_P said:

    @SamCoatesTimes: Exc Times / YouGov poll LEAVE 2 pts ahead
    Remain 42 (-2)
    Leave 44 (+1)
    DK 9 (uc)
    WNV 4 (uc)
    1,652 adults online June 17-19 (previous J16-17)

    I think we all know which is the Gold Standard............. :D
  • LondonLondon Posts: 40
    Exc Times / YouGov poll LEAVE 2 pts ahead
    Remain 42 (-2)
    Leave 44 (+1)
    DK 9 (uc)
    WNV 4 (uc)
    1,652 adults online June 17-19 (previous J16-17)
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,261

    No idea.

    Did anyone get the result of the last GE right to within a 3% swing?
    Looks like Remainers massively firming up their voting intentions to me.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,855
    Scott_P said:

    @SamCoatesTimes: Exc Times / YouGov poll LEAVE 2 pts ahead
    Remain 42 (-2)
    Leave 44 (+1)
    DK 9 (uc)
    WNV 4 (uc)
    1,652 adults online June 17-19 (previous J16-17)

    Proof those saying recent events would swing things are wrong.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,429
    RobD said:

    Scott_P said:

    @SamCoatesTimes: Exc Times / YouGov poll LEAVE 2 pts ahead
    Remain 42 (-2)
    Leave 44 (+1)
    DK 9 (uc)
    WNV 4 (uc)
    1,652 adults online June 17-19 (previous J16-17)

    I think we all know which is the Gold Standard............. :D
    BMG!
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    edited June 2016
    Time to ban ITV from covering England games.

    image

    (Edit: and that's before this tournament.)
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    edited June 2016
    London said:

    Exc Times / YouGov poll LEAVE 2 pts ahead
    Remain 42 (-2)
    Leave 44 (+1)
    DK 9 (uc)
    WNV 4 (uc)
    1,652 adults online June 17-19 (previous J16-17)

    That's interesting. Could the Cox murder have created the shy leaver phenomenon again?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,734
    The online/phone divide again offers Leave hope

    Britain Elects ‏@britainelects 41s41 seconds ago
    EU referendum poll:
    Remain: 42% (-2)
    Leave: 44% (+1)
    (via YouGov, online / 17 - 19 Jun)
    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/744998563948662784
  • JamesPJamesP Posts: 85
    Scott_P said:

    @SamCoatesTimes: Exc Times / YouGov poll LEAVE 2 pts ahead
    Remain 42 (-2)
    Leave 44 (+1)
    DK 9 (uc)
    WNV 4 (uc)
    1,652 adults online June 17-19 (previous J16-17)

    It is not yet over! YouGov is the gold standard.

    I'm not letting go of those straws yet!
  • glwglw Posts: 10,019
    edited June 2016
    Clear as mud then, still at least they don't seem to be herding.

    England rubbish, Wales bloody good.
  • BenedictWhiteBenedictWhite Posts: 1,944
    Scott_P said:

    @SamCoatesTimes: Exc Times / YouGov poll LEAVE 2 pts ahead
    Remain 42 (-2)
    Leave 44 (+1)
    DK 9 (uc)
    WNV 4 (uc)
    1,652 adults online June 17-19 (previous J16-17)

    Well that's cleared that up then. Could be leave, could be remain.

    Who knew? Edge not getting a look in?

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/744998563948662784
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,563
    Tim said:

    Chameleon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Britain Elects ‏@britainelects 2m2 minutes ago
    EU referendum poll:
    Remain: 53% (+5)
    Leave: 46% (-3)
    (via ORB, phone / )
    Certain to vote.
    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/744995895410892800

    Almost certainly game, set and match.
    No, not almost certainly. Blimey
    No, if people start to think Remain are on course, they might not turn out.
  • LowlanderLowlander Posts: 941
    R16 could be England v Portugal and Wales v Norn Iron.
  • TimTim Posts: 44

    No idea.

    Did anyone get the result of the last GE right to within a 3% swing?
    Looks like Remainers massively firming up their voting intentions to me.
    Yes. Remainers firming up is something that ties together the polling evidence and anecdotal evidence.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,261
    How many more polls to come in the next 72 hours? Three?

    Yougov, Survation and IPSOS-Mori?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,756
    Scott_P said:

    @NCPoliticsEU: ORB/Telegraph (#EUref)

    Certain to vote:

    REMAIN 53 (+5)
    LEAVE 46 (-3)

    All adults:

    REMAIN 49 (=)
    LEAVE 47 (+3)

    16th-19th
    N=800
    #Brexit

    How weird is that?
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,811
    GIN1138 said:

    " They hunt them down"? :open_mouth:

    "Sarah Connor, you have not filled out your form..."
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Ooh, interesting

    @TelePolitics: Ruth Davidson 'believes Scottish Tories would break away if Boris Johnson becomes PM' https://t.co/WamgN2qq0R
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264

    Scott_P said:

    @SamCoatesTimes: Exc Times / YouGov poll LEAVE 2 pts ahead
    Remain 42 (-2)
    Leave 44 (+1)
    DK 9 (uc)
    WNV 4 (uc)
    1,652 adults online June 17-19 (previous J16-17)

    Well that's cleared that up then. Could be leave, could be remain.

    Who knew? Edge not getting a look in?

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/744998563948662784
    Could it be that through the campaign few people's minds have changed, but up until a few weeks ago there was a cohort of shy leavers, they came out, but the Cox murder forced them back under?
  • LondonLondon Posts: 40
    Either option could happen on Thursday. Anyone saying def either way is looking a little silly.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,587

    No idea.

    Did anyone get the result of the last GE right to within a 3% swing?
    Looks like Remainers massively firming up their voting intentions to me.
    I think that's right - it also explains the discrepancy with YouGov, which I believe doesn't weight for certainty to vote.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,429
    Listen to Ruth

    Ruth Davidson believes the Scottish Conservatives would have to break away from the UK party under a new name if Boris Johnson becomes Prime Minister, the Telegraph can disclose as the pair prepare to face off on Tuesday night in an EU referendum TV debate.

    Senior sources close to the Scottish Tory leader said she thinks the former Mayor of London would be toxic to her party’s electoral hopes north of the Border if he succeeds David Cameron in the wake of a vote for Brexit on Thursday.

    They said Ms Davidson predicts the Scottish Conservatives would have to “do a Murdo”, a reference to her former leadership rival Murdo Fraser’s controversial proposal to break away from the UK Tories and form a new right-wing party.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/20/ruth-davidson-believes-scottish-tories-would-break-away-if-boris/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098



    Whatever the result Mr F the referendum has just reinforced my view that there are a large block of people for whom the current political structures provide no representation.

    It has all the feel of an ancien regime about to crumble. Certainly on the right there are lots of voters who now wont vote Conservative again. They have to go somewhere, time for a change.

    That I think is spot on, Mr. B. Not only former Conservative voters either. Up the road from me is a post war council estate where a year or so back I did some work, on behalf of Mid-Sussex Council, trying to get people to register to vote. "Why should I bother nobody gives a feck about us" was the most common response, and I have to say that they had a point.

    For example, at the time I was doing that work the more than adequate street lighting in my cul de sac was being upgraded because it did not comply to some new standard. Yet the street lighting on the Estate was so inadequate that in some parts it did not exist. It still has not been improved.

    There are lots and lots of people who feel that the political parties do not represent them, that they are forgotten and do not matter. In such circumstances the "extremist" parties will prosper. I note that no one on here today has mentioned the new Mayoress of Rome.
    *Cough*

    Where do you live? I live in Mid Sussex....
    I know you do, Mr White, I tried to organise a luncheon if you remember? I live in in Hurstpierpoint and the estate I am talking about is Willow Way.

    No Need to cough.

    Oh, re the potential Sussex PB Lunch, Miss Plato has said she is up for it. Nobody else bothered to reply.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,756
    chestnut said:

    ORB are fairly irrelevant - it was always to be expected that this week's events would lead to phone pollsters finding that leave was less obviously reported, and they have always been among the most favourable Remain pollsters.

    Natcen however. They do it in a genuinely academic fashion. I can't pass comment on their phone/online operation, but I presume it's to the same rigour they apply face to face, which is substantial. First time I've thought Remain might win in the last two/three weeks.

    Nat Cen are pretty much what I expect the result to be.
  • JamesPJamesP Posts: 85
    Sean_F said:

    Scott_P said:

    @NCPoliticsEU: ORB/Telegraph (#EUref)

    Certain to vote:

    REMAIN 53 (+5)
    LEAVE 46 (-3)

    All adults:

    REMAIN 49 (=)
    LEAVE 47 (+3)

    16th-19th
    N=800
    #Brexit

    How weird is that?
    I remember reading that ORB wished to be judged on their all adults figure, or am I just imagining that?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,855

    Tim said:

    Chameleon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Britain Elects ‏@britainelects 2m2 minutes ago
    EU referendum poll:
    Remain: 53% (+5)
    Leave: 46% (-3)
    (via ORB, phone / )
    Certain to vote.
    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/744995895410892800

    Almost certainly game, set and match.
    No, not almost certainly. Blimey
    No, if people start to think Remain are on course, they might not turn out.
    And indeed struggling Leavers may consider there's no risk anymore and can vote their gut.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,164

    Time to ban ITV from covering England games.

    image

    (Edit: and that's before this tournament.)

    Some stats guru can tell us how likely that is to happen by chance. Probably still small number statistics territory.
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    Official polling status: ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,429
    JamesP said:

    Sean_F said:

    Scott_P said:

    @NCPoliticsEU: ORB/Telegraph (#EUref)

    Certain to vote:

    REMAIN 53 (+5)
    LEAVE 46 (-3)

    All adults:

    REMAIN 49 (=)
    LEAVE 47 (+3)

    16th-19th
    N=800
    #Brexit

    How weird is that?
    I remember reading that ORB wished to be judged on their all adults figure, or am I just imagining that?
    That's correct
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,451
    Scott_P said:

    Ooh, interesting

    @TelePolitics: Ruth Davidson 'believes Scottish Tories would break away if Boris Johnson becomes PM' https://t.co/WamgN2qq0R

    Peole have said for year that it's do the Scottish Tories good to become an independent party.

    SLAB should have done it after Iraq.
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    Sean_F said:

    Scott_P said:

    @NCPoliticsEU: ORB/Telegraph (#EUref)

    Certain to vote:

    REMAIN 53 (+5)
    LEAVE 46 (-3)

    All adults:

    REMAIN 49 (=)
    LEAVE 47 (+3)

    16th-19th
    N=800
    #Brexit

    How weird is that?
    shy leavers.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    RobD said:

    Time to ban ITV from covering England games.

    image

    (Edit: and that's before this tournament.)

    Some stats guru can tell us how likely that is to happen by chance. Probably still small number statistics territory.
    Do we get to switch to another door?
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,769

    Time to ban ITV from covering England games.

    image

    (Edit: and that's before this tournament.)

    Final proof of BBC bias.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,790
    They look like good polls for Leave to me. That ORB one is very strange.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,811
    edited June 2016


    And there are people like Penny Mordaunt who've disqualified themselves from holding office.

    Ok, I've lost track. Why are we hating her again?

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,855

    Listen to Ruth

    Ruth Davidson believes the Scottish Conservatives would have to break away from the UK party under a new name if Boris Johnson becomes Prime Minister, the Telegraph can disclose as the pair prepare to face off on Tuesday night in an EU referendum TV debate.

    Senior sources close to the Scottish Tory leader said she thinks the former Mayor of London would be toxic to her party’s electoral hopes north of the Border if he succeeds David Cameron in the wake of a vote for Brexit on Thursday.

    They said Ms Davidson predicts the Scottish Conservatives would have to “do a Murdo”, a reference to her former leadership rival Murdo Fraser’s controversial proposal to break away from the UK Tories and form a new right-wing party.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/20/ruth-davidson-believes-scottish-tories-would-break-away-if-boris/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

    I suggest the Scottish Unionist Party. You might still struggle to gather up every single strand of unionism, but it's signal the intent. And some drunk SNP voters might vote SUP by mistake.
  • BenedictWhiteBenedictWhite Posts: 1,944



    Whatever the result Mr F the referendum has just reinforced my view that there are a large block of people for whom the current political structures provide no representation.

    It has all the feel of an ancien regime about to crumble. Certainly on the right there are lots of voters who now wont vote Conservative again. They have to go somewhere, time for a change.

    That I think is spot on, Mr. B. Not only former Conservative voters either. Up the road from me is a post war council estate where a year or so back I did some work, on behalf of Mid-Sussex Council, trying to get people to register to vote. "Why should I bother nobody gives a feck about us" was the most common response, and I have to say that they had a point.

    For example, at the time I was doing that work the more than adequate street lighting in my cul de sac was being upgraded because it did not comply to some new standard. Yet the street lighting on the Estate was so inadequate that in some parts it did not exist. It still has not been improved.

    There are lots and lots of people who feel that the political parties do not represent them, that they are forgotten and do not matter. In such circumstances the "extremist" parties will prosper. I note that no one on here today has mentioned the new Mayoress of Rome.
    *Cough*

    Where do you live? I live in Mid Sussex....
    I know you do, Mr White, I tried to organise a luncheon if you remember? I live in in Hurstpierpoint and the estate I am talking about is Willow Way.

    No Need to cough.

    Oh, re the potential Sussex PB Lunch, Miss Plato has said she is up for it. Nobody else bothered to reply.
    Ah yes.

    Willow way.

    I am not far away. Still up for a meet up. Could be north of the water.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    Is there not another qriously poll?
  • LondonLondon Posts: 40
    viewcode said:


    And there are people like Penny Mordaunt who've disqualified themselves from holding office.

    Ok, I've lost track. Why are we hating her again?

    Flat out lie on whether we have a veto on Turkey's membership of EU.
  • DanSmithDanSmith Posts: 1,215
    Can anyone come up with a good reason why, after weeks of all voters giving much worse results for Remain than certain to vote, the complete opposite appears in this ORB poll?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,734
    Chameleon said:

    Scott_P said:

    @SamCoatesTimes: Exc Times / YouGov poll LEAVE 2 pts ahead
    Remain 42 (-2)
    Leave 44 (+1)
    DK 9 (uc)
    WNV 4 (uc)
    1,652 adults online June 17-19 (previous J16-17)

    Well that's cleared that up then. Could be leave, could be remain.

    Who knew? Edge not getting a look in?

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/744998563948662784
    Could it be that through the campaign few people's minds have changed, but up until a few weeks ago there was a cohort of shy leavers, they came out, but the Cox murder forced them back under?
    Who are these shy Leavers? Leave is still on 44% with yougov, not 54%! As far as I can see it Leavers are more passionate than Remainers
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,587
    FWIW, anecdotally I do think that last week's polls woke up Remain's supporters big time - people who were Remain but previously only vaguely interested started getting seriously concerned, asking for posters, telling their friends to make sure to vote, etc.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Betfair unmoved by the polls
  • LowlanderLowlander Posts: 941
    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_P said:

    Ooh, interesting

    @TelePolitics: Ruth Davidson 'believes Scottish Tories would break away if Boris Johnson becomes PM' https://t.co/WamgN2qq0R

    Peole have said for year that it's do the Scottish Tories good to become an independent party.

    SLAB should have done it after Iraq.
    Surely both SLab and the Ruth Davidson For A Strong Opposition Party are Better Together with their colleagues in the rest of the UK, pooling and sharing for the benefit of all?
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 29,262

    Listen to Ruth

    Ruth Davidson believes the Scottish Conservatives would have to break away from the UK party under a new name if Boris Johnson becomes Prime Minister, the Telegraph can disclose as the pair prepare to face off on Tuesday night in an EU referendum TV debate.

    Senior sources close to the Scottish Tory leader said she thinks the former Mayor of London would be toxic to her party’s electoral hopes north of the Border if he succeeds David Cameron in the wake of a vote for Brexit on Thursday.

    They said Ms Davidson predicts the Scottish Conservatives would have to “do a Murdo”, a reference to her former leadership rival Murdo Fraser’s controversial proposal to break away from the UK Tories and form a new right-wing party.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/20/ruth-davidson-believes-scottish-tories-would-break-away-if-boris/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

    Cameroons - tpd's to the core.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,734
    DanSmith said:

    Can anyone come up with a good reason why, after weeks of all voters giving much worse results for Remain than certain to vote, the complete opposite appears in this ORB poll?

    The middle classes are coming out for Remain and they vote, the working classes are coming out for Leave and they are less likely to vote!
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,261
    nunu said:

    Sean_F said:

    Scott_P said:

    @NCPoliticsEU: ORB/Telegraph (#EUref)

    Certain to vote:

    REMAIN 53 (+5)
    LEAVE 46 (-3)

    All adults:

    REMAIN 49 (=)
    LEAVE 47 (+3)

    16th-19th
    N=800
    #Brexit

    How weird is that?
    shy leavers.
    But why would they declare a reponse but then say they're not certain to vote?
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,726

    How many more polls to come in the next 72 hours? Three?

    Yougov, Survation and IPSOS-Mori?

    Yougov are polling right now. I did a poll for them a couple of hours ago.

    You'll know my poll. I was the one voter that wanted to Leave and not have immigration controls. I will now ride off on my unicorn.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,811
    London said:

    viewcode said:


    And there are people like Penny Mordaunt who've disqualified themselves from holding office.

    Ok, I've lost track. Why are we hating her again?

    Flat out lie on whether we have a veto on Turkey's membership of EU.
    Oh, her. Ok, goddit.
  • YellowSubmarineYellowSubmarine Posts: 2,740
    DanSmith said:

    Can anyone come up with a good reason why, after weeks of all voters giving much worse results for Remain than certain to vote, the complete opposite appears in this ORB poll?

    Certainty to vote. Check out the links to the Telegraph piece with the figures.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,663

    FWIW, anecdotally I do think that last week's polls woke up Remain's supporters big time - people who were Remain but previously only vaguely interested started getting seriously concerned, asking for posters, telling their friends to make sure to vote, etc.

    Ed Miliband's 11 million voters :D
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    HYUFD said:

    Chameleon said:

    Scott_P said:

    @SamCoatesTimes: Exc Times / YouGov poll LEAVE 2 pts ahead
    Remain 42 (-2)
    Leave 44 (+1)
    DK 9 (uc)
    WNV 4 (uc)
    1,652 adults online June 17-19 (previous J16-17)

    Well that's cleared that up then. Could be leave, could be remain.

    Who knew? Edge not getting a look in?

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/744998563948662784
    Could it be that through the campaign few people's minds have changed, but up until a few weeks ago there was a cohort of shy leavers, they came out, but the Cox murder forced them back under?
    Who are these shy Leavers? Leave is still on 44% with yougov, not 54%! As far as I can see it Leavers are more passionate than Remainers
    It seems like I forgot to finish my post, so the gap has reopened between phone and online due to leavers not declaring their intentions to the nice lady on the phone.
  • JamesPJamesP Posts: 85
    HYUFD said:

    Chameleon said:

    Scott_P said:

    @SamCoatesTimes: Exc Times / YouGov poll LEAVE 2 pts ahead
    Remain 42 (-2)
    Leave 44 (+1)
    DK 9 (uc)
    WNV 4 (uc)
    1,652 adults online June 17-19 (previous J16-17)

    Well that's cleared that up then. Could be leave, could be remain.

    Who knew? Edge not getting a look in?

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/744998563948662784
    Could it be that through the campaign few people's minds have changed, but up until a few weeks ago there was a cohort of shy leavers, they came out, but the Cox murder forced them back under?
    Who are these shy Leavers? Leave is still on 44% with yougov, not 54%! As far as I can see it Leavers are more passionate than Remainers
    People who work in offices in such as mine, where the mere mention of voting leave is a stake through the heart of any potential career progression. Why you would lie to a pollster though, I'm not quite sure the logic follows through?
  • LowlanderLowlander Posts: 941
    kle4 said:

    Listen to Ruth

    Ruth Davidson believes the Scottish Conservatives would have to break away from the UK party under a new name if Boris Johnson becomes Prime Minister, the Telegraph can disclose as the pair prepare to face off on Tuesday night in an EU referendum TV debate.

    Senior sources close to the Scottish Tory leader said she thinks the former Mayor of London would be toxic to her party’s electoral hopes north of the Border if he succeeds David Cameron in the wake of a vote for Brexit on Thursday.

    They said Ms Davidson predicts the Scottish Conservatives would have to “do a Murdo”, a reference to her former leadership rival Murdo Fraser’s controversial proposal to break away from the UK Tories and form a new right-wing party.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/20/ruth-davidson-believes-scottish-tories-would-break-away-if-boris/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

    I suggest the Scottish Unionist Party. You might still struggle to gather up every single strand of unionism, but it's signal the intent. And some drunk SNP voters might vote SUP by mistake.
    After the Scottish Tories dissolved the Scottish Unionist Party the name was taken up by another party. I don't think it is available.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,451
    edited June 2016
    Lowlander said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_P said:

    Ooh, interesting

    @TelePolitics: Ruth Davidson 'believes Scottish Tories would break away if Boris Johnson becomes PM' https://t.co/WamgN2qq0R

    Peole have said for year that it's do the Scottish Tories good to become an independent party.

    SLAB should have done it after Iraq.
    Surely both SLab and the Ruth Davidson For A Strong Opposition Party are Better Together with their colleagues in the rest of the UK, pooling and sharing for the benefit of all?
    Well SLAB is essentially a deceased Party and the Scottish Tories are only showing occasional flickers of life....
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,855
    HYUFD said:

    DanSmith said:

    Can anyone come up with a good reason why, after weeks of all voters giving much worse results for Remain than certain to vote, the complete opposite appears in this ORB poll?

    The middle classes are coming out for Remain and they vote, the working classes are coming out for Leave and they are less likely to vote!
    And yet is it still old people are coming out for Leave and they vote, the young are coming out for Remain and they are less likely to vote?
  • OUTOUT Posts: 569
    kle4 said:

    Listen to Ruth

    Ruth Davidson believes the Scottish Conservatives would have to break away from the UK party under a new name if Boris Johnson becomes Prime Minister, the Telegraph can disclose as the pair prepare to face off on Tuesday night in an EU referendum TV debate.

    Senior sources close to the Scottish Tory leader said she thinks the former Mayor of London would be toxic to her party’s electoral hopes north of the Border if he succeeds David Cameron in the wake of a vote for Brexit on Thursday.

    They said Ms Davidson predicts the Scottish Conservatives would have to “do a Murdo”, a reference to her former leadership rival Murdo Fraser’s controversial proposal to break away from the UK Tories and form a new right-wing party.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/20/ruth-davidson-believes-scottish-tories-would-break-away-if-boris/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

    I suggest the Scottish Unionist Party. You might still struggle to gather up every single strand of unionism, but it's signal the intent. And some drunk SNP voters might vote SUP by mistake.
    Already a SUP.
    Murdo wanted Progressive Party name.
  • BenedictWhiteBenedictWhite Posts: 1,944
    London said:

    viewcode said:


    And there are people like Penny Mordaunt who've disqualified themselves from holding office.

    Ok, I've lost track. Why are we hating her again?

    Flat out lie on whether we have a veto on Turkey's membership of EU.
    Are you sure she wasn't just mistaken? The quality of debate is so poor, I actually think these people are ill informed. (MPs were certainly clueless over Iraq)
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,734
    Telegraph backs Leave tomorrow, least shocking news of the campaign!
    https://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/745001030295912448
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    kle4 said:

    Many, me including me, called it for Leave when they got a confluence of great polls. Now, that's because I never learn not to overreact, but I shall try, and so not now call it for Remain based of a series of good polls.

    Demographics, message, passion, all favour Leave.

    demographics is swings and roundabouts, is about GOTV now thats all and shy leavers.
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    London said:

    viewcode said:


    And there are people like Penny Mordaunt who've disqualified themselves from holding office.

    Ok, I've lost track. Why are we hating her again?

    Flat out lie on whether we have a veto on Turkey's membership of EU.
    We the British government or we the British people?
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,587
    DanSmith said:

    Can anyone come up with a good reason why, after weeks of all voters giving much worse results for Remain than certain to vote, the complete opposite appears in this ORB poll?

    I hate to say it because I don't actually think it's very fair, but I think the Jo Cox murder has had an effect, plus the Farage poster (there is polling that it's unpopular) - the combination of the two has put some Remainers into "keep the barbarians out" mode while some leavers may have wondered if they were quite comfortable with the Brexit camp.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,387

    nunu said:

    Sean_F said:

    Scott_P said:

    @NCPoliticsEU: ORB/Telegraph (#EUref)

    Certain to vote:

    REMAIN 53 (+5)
    LEAVE 46 (-3)

    All adults:

    REMAIN 49 (=)
    LEAVE 47 (+3)

    16th-19th
    N=800
    #Brexit

    How weird is that?
    shy leavers.
    But why would they declare a reponse but then say they're not certain to vote?
    They are probably actuaries.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 29,262
    edited June 2016
    viewcode said:

    London said:

    viewcode said:


    And there are people like Penny Mordaunt who've disqualified themselves from holding office.

    Ok, I've lost track. Why are we hating her again?

    Flat out lie on whether we have a veto on Turkey's membership of EU.
    Oh, her. Ok, goddit.
    Are we disqualifying all flat out liars from holding office now? I fear cabinet meetings will be rather quiet affairs.
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    JamesP said:

    HYUFD said:

    Chameleon said:

    Scott_P said:

    @SamCoatesTimes: Exc Times / YouGov poll LEAVE 2 pts ahead
    Remain 42 (-2)
    Leave 44 (+1)
    DK 9 (uc)
    WNV 4 (uc)
    1,652 adults online June 17-19 (previous J16-17)

    Well that's cleared that up then. Could be leave, could be remain.

    Who knew? Edge not getting a look in?

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/744998563948662784
    Could it be that through the campaign few people's minds have changed, but up until a few weeks ago there was a cohort of shy leavers, they came out, but the Cox murder forced them back under?
    Who are these shy Leavers? Leave is still on 44% with yougov, not 54%! As far as I can see it Leavers are more passionate than Remainers
    People who work in offices in such as mine, where the mere mention of voting leave is a stake through the heart of any potential career progression. Why you would lie to a pollster though, I'm not quite sure the logic follows through?
    They convince themselves they're not voting Leave so that they don't slip at work. Only in the polling booth do they realise they're voting Leave?
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Scott_P said:

    @Coral: Now we await to see which team will knock England out in the Round of 16.

    Can Portugal do it?

    Iceland might!
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,451
    edited June 2016

    DanSmith said:

    Can anyone come up with a good reason why, after weeks of all voters giving much worse results for Remain than certain to vote, the complete opposite appears in this ORB poll?

    I hate to say it because I don't actually think it's very fair, but I think the Jo Cox murder has had an effect, plus the Farage poster (there is polling that it's unpopular) - the combination of the two has put some Remainers into "keep the barbarians out" mode while some leavers may have wondered if they were quite comfortable with the Brexit camp.
    And other Leavers may have become "shy"?
  • LowlanderLowlander Posts: 941
    OUT said:

    kle4 said:

    Listen to Ruth

    Ruth Davidson believes the Scottish Conservatives would have to break away from the UK party under a new name if Boris Johnson becomes Prime Minister, the Telegraph can disclose as the pair prepare to face off on Tuesday night in an EU referendum TV debate.

    Senior sources close to the Scottish Tory leader said she thinks the former Mayor of London would be toxic to her party’s electoral hopes north of the Border if he succeeds David Cameron in the wake of a vote for Brexit on Thursday.

    They said Ms Davidson predicts the Scottish Conservatives would have to “do a Murdo”, a reference to her former leadership rival Murdo Fraser’s controversial proposal to break away from the UK Tories and form a new right-wing party.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/20/ruth-davidson-believes-scottish-tories-would-break-away-if-boris/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

    I suggest the Scottish Unionist Party. You might still struggle to gather up every single strand of unionism, but it's signal the intent. And some drunk SNP voters might vote SUP by mistake.
    Already a SUP.
    Murdo wanted Progressive Party name.
    The Progressives were a semi-official grouping of the Tories and Liberals who contested local elections in Scotland. The Lib Dems might obect to the use of the name.

    It was before my time but they were quite successful and ran Glasgow for a long period of time.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,261
    HYUFD said:

    Telegraph backs Leave tomorrow, least shocking news of the campaign!
    https://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/745001030295912448

    Sound.
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024

    nunu said:

    Sean_F said:

    Scott_P said:

    @NCPoliticsEU: ORB/Telegraph (#EUref)

    Certain to vote:

    REMAIN 53 (+5)
    LEAVE 46 (-3)

    All adults:

    REMAIN 49 (=)
    LEAVE 47 (+3)

    16th-19th
    N=800
    #Brexit

    How weird is that?
    shy leavers.
    But why would they declare a reponse but then say they're not certain to vote?
    They are probably actuaries.
    Let me clutch at straws!
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    HYUFD said:

    Telegraph backs Leave tomorrow, least shocking news of the campaign!
    https://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/745001030295912448

    Slightly strange introduction - "if this Thursday's referendum..."

    What if it isn't? Why not just state "This Thursday's referendum IS ..."?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Sean_F said:

    felix said:

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    EPG said:

    OllyT said:

    midwinter said:

    EPG said:

    Unless I'm very much mistaken, I would say that the anecdotal evidence offered on this site to date strongly favours LEAVE, paricularly with reference to large numbers of voters, eg the Nissan workforce vs a few dozen people in North London.
    But then again, these are random reports, completely unsubstatiated and unweighted and although interesting, have about the same value as yesterday's fish and chips wrapping.

    Most of the anecdotes come from active campaigners for LEAVE, experiencing the natural politeness of the great English public; almost all come from their sympathisers.
    If the anecdotal evidence from here is a quarter way accurate Remain will do well to poll in the high teens.....
    I was just thinking exactly that - particularly as every Leave vote that has been the subject of an anecdote has been a "surprise" as the poster would have expected them to vote Remain. Don't know why we are waiting till Friday to get the result really.
    I bet people who know, much less marry, PBers are going to be more inclined to LEAVE than crude demography would suggest.
    Anecdotes are interesting, but there's not the slightest doubt that Remain will win this now.
    Why not the slightest doubt? Surely, there's always some doubt.
    Of course. I was feeling depressed when I posted that.

    I think we can run close, but not reach 50%+.
    Whatever the result Mr F the referendum has just reinforced my view that there are a large block of people for whom the current political structures provide no representation.

    It has all the feel of an ancien regime about to crumble. Certainly on the right there are lots of voters who now wont vote Conservative again. They have to go somewhere, time for a change.
    I think there is an ending coming to the Conservative Party. Just think of the numbers of Conservative-voting authorities that will vote Leave on Thursday.
    People have predicted the end of the party since RC emancipation in the 1829! Life and the party goes on.
    I think things have been said throughout this campaign which are hard to unsay. One group of Conservatives think the other are effete Metroplitan snobs. The other think their opponents are bigots with blood on their hands.
    TBF both groups are right

  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098



    Whatever the result Mr F the referendum has just reinforced my view that there are a large block of people for whom the current political structures provide no representation.

    It has all the feel of an ancien regime about to crumble. Certainly on the right there are lots of voters who now wont vote Conservative again. They have to go somewhere, time for a change.

    That I think is spot on, Mr. B. Not only former Conservative voters either. Up the road from me is a post war council estate where a year or so back I did some work, on behalf of Mid-Sussex Council, trying to get people to register to vote. "Why should I bother nobody gives a feck about us" was the most common response, and I have to say that they had a point.

    For example, at the time I was doing that work the more than adequate street lighting in my cul de sac was being upgraded because it did not comply to some new standard. Yet the street lighting on the Estate was so inadequate that in some parts it did not exist. It still has not been improved.

    There are lots and lots of people who feel that the political parties do not represent them, that they are forgotten and do not matter. In such circumstances the "extremist" parties will prosper. I note that no one on here today has mentioned the new Mayoress of Rome.
    *Cough*

    Where do you live? I live in Mid Sussex....
    I know you do, Mr White, I tried to organise a luncheon if you remember? I live in in Hurstpierpoint and the estate I am talking about is Willow Way.

    No Need to cough.

    Oh, re the potential Sussex PB Lunch, Miss Plato has said she is up for it. Nobody else bothered to reply.
    Ah yes.

    Willow way.

    I am not far away. Still up for a meet up. Could be north of the water.
    If you would like to meet, even for just for a coffee or a beer, (and I certainly would like to) then please drop an email at HurstLlama dot gmail dot com.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,756
    JamesP said:

    HYUFD said:

    Chameleon said:

    Scott_P said:

    @SamCoatesTimes: Exc Times / YouGov poll LEAVE 2 pts ahead
    Remain 42 (-2)
    Leave 44 (+1)
    DK 9 (uc)
    WNV 4 (uc)
    1,652 adults online June 17-19 (previous J16-17)

    Well that's cleared that up then. Could be leave, could be remain.

    Who knew? Edge not getting a look in?

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/744998563948662784
    Could it be that through the campaign few people's minds have changed, but up until a few weeks ago there was a cohort of shy leavers, they came out, but the Cox murder forced them back under?
    Who are these shy Leavers? Leave is still on 44% with yougov, not 54%! As far as I can see it Leavers are more passionate than Remainers
    People who work in offices in such as mine, where the mere mention of voting leave is a stake through the heart of any potential career progression. Why you would lie to a pollster though, I'm not quite sure the logic follows through?
    There are shy voters on both sides. Without doubt, there are jobs where admitting to voting Leave is like admitting to child molestation. But, there are places where admitting to Remain can generate a rough response.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,062
    If Remain win this will be a huge personal victory for Cameron and to a lesser extent Osborne. He really hasn't had any sensible help from either Labour or the Lib Dems. In fact Labour have been a negative force.

    Cameron's is not only the most successful Tory leader since Thatcher he's the most palatable in my life time. If there was an election next week I'd vote for him
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,855
    OUT said:

    kle4 said:

    Listen to Ruth

    Ruth Davidson believes the Scottish Conservatives would have to break away from the UK party under a new name if Boris Johnson becomes Prime Minister, the Telegraph can disclose as the pair prepare to face off on Tuesday night in an EU referendum TV debate.

    Senior sources close to the Scottish Tory leader said she thinks the former Mayor of London would be toxic to her party’s electoral hopes north of the Border if he succeeds David Cameron in the wake of a vote for Brexit on Thursday.

    They said Ms Davidson predicts the Scottish Conservatives would have to “do a Murdo”, a reference to her former leadership rival Murdo Fraser’s controversial proposal to break away from the UK Tories and form a new right-wing party.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/20/ruth-davidson-believes-scottish-tories-would-break-away-if-boris/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

    I suggest the Scottish Unionist Party. You might still struggle to gather up every single strand of unionism, but it's signal the intent. And some drunk SNP voters might vote SUP by mistake.
    Already a SUP.
    Murdo wanted Progressive Party name.
    That's a much worse name - what does a Progressive Party stand for.

    Scottish Unionist Posse?
    Unionist Part of Scotland?
    The Ruth Davidson Experience (feat. others)?
  • John_N4John_N4 Posts: 553
    edited June 2016

    How many more polls to come in the next 72 hours? Three?

    Yougov, Survation and IPSOS-Mori?

    As well as those, IG tomorrow and ComRes and TNS on Wednesday.

    How come ORB are reporting "certain to vote" figures of Remain 53%, Leave 46%? They don't add up to 100%. Did some people say they were certain to vote a third way? Or were the figures exactly 53.5% and 46.5% and they got rounded down? That's possible, with n=800. Or they made a mistake. Is there a fourth possibility?
  • LondonLondon Posts: 40

    London said:

    viewcode said:


    And there are people like Penny Mordaunt who've disqualified themselves from holding office.

    Ok, I've lost track. Why are we hating her again?

    Flat out lie on whether we have a veto on Turkey's membership of EU.
    We the British government or we the British people?
    We the British government
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,734
    edited June 2016
    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    DanSmith said:

    Can anyone come up with a good reason why, after weeks of all voters giving much worse results for Remain than certain to vote, the complete opposite appears in this ORB poll?

    The middle classes are coming out for Remain and they vote, the working classes are coming out for Leave and they are less likely to vote!
    And yet is it still old people are coming out for Leave and they vote, the young are coming out for Remain and they are less likely to vote?
    It is a clash between the middle class and the young and the old and the working class
  • LowlanderLowlander Posts: 941

    twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/745002013365272576

    If you want to see the future, then imagine a Unicorn's hoof, pressed down on the back of a lion. Forever.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,261

    FWIW, anecdotally I do think that last week's polls woke up Remain's supporters big time - people who were Remain but previously only vaguely interested started getting seriously concerned, asking for posters, telling their friends to make sure to vote, etc.

    My Facebook feed went ape shit. Wall to wall Remain fervour.
  • John_N4John_N4 Posts: 553
    edited June 2016
    (deleted)

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,855
    Roger said:



    Cameron's is not only the most successful Tory leader since Thatcher he's the most palatable in my life time. If there was an election next week I'd vote for him

    Combine this with Tyson's statement Osborne is not so bad, and we see how the world has gone mad in this referendum.

    I will say Osborne has put the effort in, and not shied away from this like some other Remainers. Perhaps he had to, perhaps he was wrong to insist he do so, but he's gone for it.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,451
    edited June 2016
    John_N4 said:

    How many more polls to come in the next 72 hours? Three?

    Yougov, Survation and IPSOS-Mori?

    As well as those, IG tomorrow and ComRes and TNS on Wednesday.

    How come ORB are reporting "certain to vote" figures of Remain 53%, Leave 46%? They don't add up to 100%. Did some people say they were certain to vote a third way? Or were the figures exactly 53.5% and 46.5% and they got rounded down? Or they made a mistake. Is there a fourth possibility?
    Survations final poll is also tomorrow... Hopefully they won't rip this one up if it doesn't fit the "narrative" :innocent_face:
  • LondonLondon Posts: 40
    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    DanSmith said:

    Can anyone come up with a good reason why, after weeks of all voters giving much worse results for Remain than certain to vote, the complete opposite appears in this ORB poll?

    The middle classes are coming out for Remain and they vote, the working classes are coming out for Leave and they are less likely to vote!
    And yet is it still old people are coming out for Leave and they vote, the young are coming out for Remain and they are less likely to vote?
    It is a clash between the middle class and the young and the old and the working class
    Sums it up!
  • GIN1138 said:

    DanSmith said:

    Can anyone come up with a good reason why, after weeks of all voters giving much worse results for Remain than certain to vote, the complete opposite appears in this ORB poll?

    I hate to say it because I don't actually think it's very fair, but I think the Jo Cox murder has had an effect, plus the Farage poster (there is polling that it's unpopular) - the combination of the two has put some Remainers into "keep the barbarians out" mode while some leavers may have wondered if they were quite comfortable with the Brexit camp.
    And other Leavers may have become "shy"?
    This has a 1992 GE feel for me. Everyone saying they'd give Kinnock a chance, until they got into the polling booth and switched.
  • Ladbrokes continue to offer "Less than 1% margin of victory for either side" at 16/1 .... this looks like value to me but make up your own mind!
    DYOR.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    edited June 2016
    Roger said:

    If Remain win this will be a huge personal victory for Cameron and to a lesser extent Osborne. He really hasn't had any sensible help from either Labour or the Lib Dems. In fact Labour have been a negative force.

    Cameron's is not only the most successful Tory leader since Thatcher he's the most palatable in my life time. If there was an election next week I'd vote for him

    Lol. We'll have find some madeup/misinterpretable quotes from the eighties about Mandela. That'll calm you down.

    By the way - "the LibDems"? Who, precisely?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,261

    GIN1138 said:

    DanSmith said:

    Can anyone come up with a good reason why, after weeks of all voters giving much worse results for Remain than certain to vote, the complete opposite appears in this ORB poll?

    I hate to say it because I don't actually think it's very fair, but I think the Jo Cox murder has had an effect, plus the Farage poster (there is polling that it's unpopular) - the combination of the two has put some Remainers into "keep the barbarians out" mode while some leavers may have wondered if they were quite comfortable with the Brexit camp.
    And other Leavers may have become "shy"?
    This has a 1992 GE feel for me. Everyone saying they'd give Kinnock a chance, until they got into the polling booth and switched.
    Ah, so Leave will win then? ;-)
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @tnewtondunn: EXCL: David Cameron accuses Michael Gove of “Donald Trump-style” politics for rubbishing experts' EU views; https://t.co/6RtauqshEO
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,062
    Sean_F said:

    JamesP said:

    HYUFD said:

    Chameleon said:

    Scott_P said:

    @SamCoatesTimes: Exc Times / YouGov poll LEAVE 2 pts ahead
    Remain 42 (-2)
    Leave 44 (+1)
    DK 9 (uc)
    WNV 4 (uc)
    1,652 adults online June 17-19 (previous J16-17)

    Well that's cleared that up then. Could be leave, could be remain.

    Who knew? Edge not getting a look in?

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/744998563948662784
    Could it be that through the campaign few people's minds have changed, but up until a few weeks ago there was a cohort of shy leavers, they came out, but the Cox murder forced them back under?
    Who are these shy Leavers? Leave is still on 44% with yougov, not 54%! As far as I can see it Leavers are more passionate than Remainers
    People who work in offices in such as mine, where the mere mention of voting leave is a stake through the heart of any potential career progression. Why you would lie to a pollster though, I'm not quite sure the logic follows through?
    There are shy voters on both sides. Without doubt, there are jobs where admitting to voting Leave is like admitting to child molestation. But, there are places where admitting to Remain can generate a rough response.
    Boris's battle bus driver?
This discussion has been closed.