DC's clause on the meaning of 'Ever Closer Union' is perhaps the most important part of his deal, because it is a strong marker. Yes, I expect there to be bumps in the writing of this into EU treaties, but as an acknowledgement of reality, I don't expect it ultimately to be struck down and I do expect it to have significant bearing on the future development of the EU.
As for the inner core, if they want an army, let 'em.
In Mr Paxman's recent EU doccy, the House of Commons Library told him that 59% of UK laws in 2010-2013 came from the EU. That's plenty close enough already.
[Serious question]
How do you measure laws? By numbers of acts of parliament? By word count? By number of articles?
I ask this because if you look through the list of Acts of Parliament 2015 (here), you see remarkably few that appear EU inspired. There is the "European Union (Approvals) Act 2015", but most seem to be unremarkable and certainly not inspired by the EU.
Also includes secondary legislation, no doubt.
Yes, the facts are not really in dispute on this. There is a huge amount of standardisation legislation which mostly comes from the EU, as part of the development of the single market, and that's where the 59% comes from. Generally manufacturers don't especially care where they need to put labels or whether they need to be green or pink, but they'd rather not have to grapple with 28 different sets of regulations, so by common consent these things are increasingly standard throughout the EU. Where a standared has been set, countries are not allowed to say "Nah, we're gonna have pink labels instead" - so "taking back control" in that context means the ability to deviate from an agreed standard.
By contrast, there is not much primary legislation or legislation which most people would think was important that comes from the EU. The compulsory 4 weeks' holiday is an example, or (to take one that I had something to do with) the ban on painful experiments on animals to test cosmetics.
The problem with that analysis being that if so much of it is single market legislation then why does so little of it apply to Norway?
Unless I'm very much mistaken, I would say that the anecdotal evidence offered on this site to date strongly favours LEAVE, paricularly with reference to large numbers of voters, eg the Nissan workforce vs a few dozen people in North London. But then again, these are random reports, completely unsubstatiated and unweighted and although interesting, have about the same value as yesterday's fish and chips wrapping.
Most of the anecdotes come from active campaigners for LEAVE, experiencing the natural politeness of the great English public; almost all come from their sympathisers.
If the anecdotal evidence from here is a quarter way accurate Remain will do well to poll in the high teens.....
I was just thinking exactly that - particularly as every Leave vote that has been the subject of an anecdote has been a "surprise" as the poster would have expected them to vote Remain. Don't know why we are waiting till Friday to get the result really.
I bet people who know, much less marry, PBers are going to be more inclined to LEAVE than crude demography would suggest.
Anecdotes are interesting, but there's not the slightest doubt that Remain will win this now.
Why not the slightest doubt? Surely, there's always some doubt.
Electorate in GB = 38,597,100, (E) 2,297,300 (W), 4,027,200 (S). Total = 44,921,600
Electorate of London = 5,216,352, Electorate of Gibraltar = 20,683
Electorate of NI = 1,241,079
Therefore:
Electorate of Scotland, Wales, NI, Gib , London combined = 12,802,614
Electorate of England less London = 33,380,748
Electorate of England less London is nearly three times the size of the rest of the UK electorate combined.
Therefore Even if Everybody in Wales, NI, Scotland London and Gibraltar voted Remain, just a 69-31% out vote in the rest of England would overturn their votes and result in OUT.
Good Luck Remainers.
While that sounds good, if we say they go 66-34 for Remain, then RoEngland needs to go ~62-38 for Leave. Polls are not showing that.
Sorry but I believe you have miscalculated.
If on 100% turnout London+Gib+RoUK votes 62-38 remain,
Then rest of England needs to vote leave by 56-44 to overturn it.
Thats eminently possible. No wonder Remain are worried once you factor differential turnout etc.in
What is it if Lon-Gib-Wal-Sco-NI go 67-33 for Remain? If it is ~57-43 for Leave in RestofEngland then this may be quite close.
I cant see r of uk + london being anywhere near that to be honest. Only Scotland is anywhere near those figures. London and NI seem to be 5x / 4x remain, and Wales may well go Brexit.
No wonder the remainers here are so vocal. They are trying to convince themselves just as the libdems here noisily tried to convince themselves that they were going to hang onto Tory/Libdem contest seats last year (and I was roundly monstered for saying that places like yeovil and sutton were doomed).
To win this, remain have to come close to winning rest of england minus London. That is a hell of a big ask.
Quite a lot of technical standardisation comes from the WTO (where Norway are at the top table and we are not) then via the EU to us, surely?
The truthful answer to that is that I don't know - you may well be right.
It's relatively rare for technical standardisation to be the source of great controversy, so it's actually a field where I don't mind the WTO doing it.
Quite a lot of technical standardisation comes from the WTO (where Norway are at the top table and we are not) then via the EU to us, surely?
The truthful answer to that is that I don't know - you may well be right.
It's relatively rare for technical standardisation to be the source of great controversy, so it's actually a field where I don't mind the WTO doing it.
Electorate in GB = 38,597,100, (E) 2,297,300 (W), 4,027,200 (S). Total = 44,921,600
Electorate of London = 5,216,352, Electorate of Gibraltar = 20,683
Electorate of NI = 1,241,079
Therefore:
Electorate of Scotland, Wales, NI, Gib , London combined = 12,802,614
Electorate of England less London = 33,380,748
Electorate of England less London is nearly three times the size of the rest of the UK electorate combined.
Therefore Even if Everybody in Wales, NI, Scotland London and Gibraltar voted Remain, just a 69-31% out vote in the rest of England would overturn their votes and result in OUT.
Good Luck Remainers.
While that sounds good, if we say they go 66-34 for Remain, then RoEngland needs to go ~62-38 for Leave. Polls are not showing that.
Sorry but I believe you have miscalculated.
If on 100% turnout London+Gib+RoUK votes 62-38 remain,
Then rest of England needs to vote leave by 56-44 to overturn it.
Thats eminently possible. No wonder Remain are worried once you factor differential turnout etc.in
What is it if Lon-Gib-Wal-Sco-NI go 67-33 for Remain? If it is ~57-43 for Leave in RestofEngland then this may be quite close.
I cant see r of uk + london being anywhere near that to be honest. Only Scotland is anywhere near those figures. London and NI seem to be 5x / 4x remain, and Wales may well go Brexit.
No wonder the remainers here are so vocal. They are trying to convince themselves just as the libdems here noisily tried to convince themselves that they were going to hang onto Tory/Libdem contest seats last year (and I was roundly monstered for saying that places like yeovil and sutton were doomed).
To win this, remain have to come close to winning rest of england minus London. That is a hell of a big ask.
That's actually given me some hope. If I understand it correctly a 59-41 leave for Remain among the regions + London would translate to Leave only needing to be ahead about 54-46 in Rest of England for it to be a score draw. That seems slightly possible.
Unless I'm very much mistaken, I would say that the anecdotal evidence offered on this site to date strongly favours LEAVE, paricularly with reference to large numbers of voters, eg the Nissan workforce vs a few dozen people in North London. But then again, these are random reports, completely unsubstatiated and unweighted and although interesting, have about the same value as yesterday's fish and chips wrapping.
Most of the anecdotes come from active campaigners for LEAVE, experiencing the natural politeness of the great English public; almost all come from their sympathisers.
If the anecdotal evidence from here is a quarter way accurate Remain will do well to poll in the high teens.....
I was just thinking exactly that - particularly as every Leave vote that has been the subject of an anecdote has been a "surprise" as the poster would have expected them to vote Remain. Don't know why we are waiting till Friday to get the result really.
I bet people who know, much less marry, PBers are going to be more inclined to LEAVE than crude demography would suggest.
Anecdotes are interesting, but there's not the slightest doubt that Remain will win this now.
Why not the slightest doubt? Surely, there's always some doubt.
Of course. I was feeling depressed when I posted that.
Quite a lot of technical standardisation comes from the WTO (where Norway are at the top table and we are not) then via the EU to us, surely?
The truthful answer to that is that I don't know - you may well be right.
It's relatively rare for technical standardisation to be the source of great controversy, so it's actually a field where I don't mind the WTO doing it.
A lot of the WTO stuff is done, dare I whisper it? by consensus... so generally no one ends up objecting.
On the other hand some of the EU stuff is really odd and mean. They decided (according to an article I read about Denmark) that you could not smoke fish any more using the age old method because:
1. They thought eating traditional smoked food may be dangerous.
2. It may be bad for the workers...
3. Burning carbon neutral wood apparently is not carbon neutral (Who knew).
As luck would have it though there was a technical solution of a smoking machine using synthetic smoke which recirculates. Made in *cough* Germany. What lucky chaps the Danes are eh?
I'm now envisaging the nightmare scenario. UK votes Remain but England votes out. England win the Euros cue a whole lot of flag waving and a spur to English nationalism.
Quite a lot of technical standardisation comes from the WTO (where Norway are at the top table and we are not) then via the EU to us, surely?
The truthful answer to that is that I don't know - you may well be right.
It's relatively rare for technical standardisation to be the source of great controversy, so it's actually a field where I don't mind the WTO doing it.
Quite a lot of technical standardisation comes from the WTO (where Norway are at the top table and we are not) then via the EU to us, surely?
The truthful answer to that is that I don't know - you may well be right.
It's relatively rare for technical standardisation to be the source of great controversy, so it's actually a field where I don't mind the WTO doing it.
Be nice if we had a seat like Norway do
I've sat on committees. Lots of people have seats but don't matter.
I'm surprised with all the chat about Norway, Albania, etc. that nobody considers the most obvious parallel to a large and prosperous country in the UK's position, which is that it would be Japan with half the economy and influence. Japan probably has a role in standards of industries which it leads, like robotics, but the rest is not exactly rule-the-waves stuff.
I'm now envisaging the nightmare scenario. UK votes Remain but England votes out. England win the Euros cue a whole lot of flag waving and a spur to English nationalism.
That requires us winning the Euros. Based on tonight's performance that is definitely not going to happen.
I'm now envisaging the nightmare scenario. UK votes Remain but England votes out. England win the Euros cue a whole lot of flag waving and a spur to English nationalism.
There doesn't seem to be many flags on cars this time. I can't remember too many in the last few tournaments - certainly seems a long time since the heady days of the 2002 World Cup.
Quite a lot of technical standardisation comes from the WTO (where Norway are at the top table and we are not) then via the EU to us, surely?
The truthful answer to that is that I don't know - you may well be right.
It's relatively rare for technical standardisation to be the source of great controversy, so it's actually a field where I don't mind the WTO doing it.
Be nice if we had a seat like Norway do
I've sat on committees. Lots of people have seats but don't matter.
I'm surprised with all the chat about Norway, Albania, etc. that nobody considers the most obvious parallel to a large and prosperous country in the UK's position, which is that it would be Japan with half the economy and influence. Japan probably has a role in standards of industries which it leads, like robotics, but the rest is not exactly rule-the-waves stuff.
That's a little unfair on Norway, actually. It has influence where it matters. Norway's oil and gas standards have been hugely influential in determining the rest of the EU's.
Irrespective of England's result tonight, I think Roy's future hangs on England at least reaching the semis. Last 8 is simply not good enough. He must realise that himself.
Quite a lot of technical standardisation comes from the WTO (where Norway are at the top table and we are not) then via the EU to us, surely?
The truthful answer to that is that I don't know - you may well be right.
It's relatively rare for technical standardisation to be the source of great controversy, so it's actually a field where I don't mind the WTO doing it.
A lot of the WTO stuff is done, dare I whisper it? by consensus... so generally no one ends up objecting.
On the other hand some of the EU stuff is really odd and mean. They decided (according to an article I read about Denmark) that you could not smoke fish any more using the age old method because:
1. They thought eating traditional smoked food may be dangerous.
2. It may be bad for the workers...
3. Burning carbon neutral wood apparently is not carbon neutral (Who knew).
As luck would have it though there was a technical solution of a smoking machine using synthetic smoke which recirculates. Made in *cough* Germany. What lucky chaps the Danes are eh?
Britain would be free to take control and increase the carcinogen levels in food, but for good reason that particular audiotape has not been loaded into Joe 90 in any interview I have seen.
Quite a lot of technical standardisation comes from the WTO (where Norway are at the top table and we are not) then via the EU to us, surely?
The truthful answer to that is that I don't know - you may well be right.
It's relatively rare for technical standardisation to be the source of great controversy, so it's actually a field where I don't mind the WTO doing it.
Be nice if we had a seat like Norway do
I've sat on committees. Lots of people have seats but don't matter.
I'm surprised with all the chat about Norway, Albania, etc. that nobody considers the most obvious parallel to a large and prosperous country in the UK's position, which is that it would be Japan with half the economy and influence. Japan probably has a role in standards of industries which it leads, like robotics, but the rest is not exactly rule-the-waves stuff.
That's a little unfair on Norway, actually. It has influence where it matters. Norway's oil and gas standards have been hugely influential in determining the rest of the EU's.
I agree precisely - If Britain is an industry leader, it will have a natural leadership role as its money will be on the table. Then again, that's already true in the EU, so no diff.
Unless I'm very much mistaken, I would say that the anecdotal evidence offered on this site to date strongly favours LEAVE, paricularly with reference to large numbers of voters, eg the Nissan workforce vs a few dozen people in North London. But then again, these are random reports, completely unsubstatiated and unweighted and although interesting, have about the same value as yesterday's fish and chips wrapping.
Most of the anecdotes come from active campaigners for LEAVE, experiencing the natural politeness of the great English public; almost all come from their sympathisers.
If the anecdotal evidence from here is a quarter way accurate Remain will do well to poll in the high teens.....
I was just thinking exactly that - particularly as every Leave vote that has been the subject of an anecdote has been a "surprise" as the poster would have expected them to vote Remain. Don't know why we are waiting till Friday to get the result really.
I bet people who know, much less marry, PBers are going to be more inclined to LEAVE than crude demography would suggest.
Anecdotes are interesting, but there's not the slightest doubt that Remain will win this now.
Why not the slightest doubt? Surely, there's always some doubt.
Of course. I was feeling depressed when I posted that.
I think we can run close, but not reach 50%+.
Although I think Remain are now favourites, there seem to me to be two loopholes.
First, the polls may not be accurate enough to measure the difference between Remain and Leave in such a close race. The variations in the strengths of the two sides with geography & the lack of back history of voting make this difficult to poll. I would agree with rcs1000 that the underlying picture could still be 55/45 to either side, and the polls will report 50/50 (to within moe).
Second, there is still time for one further twist. A gaffe, a blunder or another black swan.
To cheer you up, news from Cymru Cymraeg and friends in Plaid Cymru suggest that they having the same difficulty as Welsh Labour in persuading their supporters to do what the Party Leadership is telling them, I expect all of Wales bar Cardiff to vote Leave.
Quite a lot of technical standardisation comes from the WTO (where Norway are at the top table and we are not) then via the EU to us, surely?
The truthful answer to that is that I don't know - you may well be right.
It's relatively rare for technical standardisation to be the source of great controversy, so it's actually a field where I don't mind the WTO doing it.
A lot of the WTO stuff is done, dare I whisper it? by consensus... so generally no one ends up objecting.
On the other hand some of the EU stuff is really odd and mean. They decided (according to an article I read about Denmark) that you could not smoke fish any more using the age old method because:
1. They thought eating traditional smoked food may be dangerous.
2. It may be bad for the workers...
3. Burning carbon neutral wood apparently is not carbon neutral (Who knew).
As luck would have it though there was a technical solution of a smoking machine using synthetic smoke which recirculates. Made in *cough* Germany. What lucky chaps the Danes are eh?
Britain would be free to take control and increase the carcinogen levels in food, but for good reason that particular audiotape has not been loaded into Joe 90 in any interview I have seen.
Where is the evidence (other than in a manufacturers brochure) that recirculated smoke is less carcinogenic than non recirculated natural smoke?
Electorate in GB = 38,597,100, (E) 2,297,300 (W), 4,027,200 (S). Total = 44,921,600
Electorate of London = 5,216,352, Electorate of Gibraltar = 20,683
Electorate of NI = 1,241,079
Therefore:
Electorate of Scotland, Wales, NI, Gib , London combined = 12,802,614
Electorate of England less London = 33,380,748
Electorate of England less London is nearly three times the size of the rest of the UK electorate combined.
Therefore Even if Everybody in Wales, NI, Scotland London and Gibraltar voted Remain, just a 69-31% out vote in the rest of England would overturn their votes and result in OUT.
Good Luck Remainers.
While that sounds good, if we say they go 66-34 for Remain, then RoEngland needs to go ~62-38 for Leave. Polls are not showing that.
Sorry but I believe you have miscalculated.
If on 100% turnout London+Gib+RoUK votes 62-38 remain,
Then rest of England needs to vote leave by 56-44 to overturn it.
Thats eminently possible. No wonder Remain are worried once you factor differential turnout etc.in
What is it if Lon-Gib-Wal-Sco-NI go 67-33 for Remain? If it is ~57-43 for Leave in RestofEngland then this may be quite close.
I cant see r of uk + london being anywhere near that to be honest. Only Scotland is anywhere near those figures. London and NI seem to be 5x / 4x remain, and Wales may well go Brexit.
No wonder the remainers here are so vocal. They are trying to convince themselves just as the libdems here noisily tried to convince themselves that they were going to hang onto Tory/Libdem contest seats last year (and I was roundly monstered for saying that places like yeovil and sutton were doomed).
To win this, remain have to come close to winning rest of england minus London. That is a hell of a big ask.
That's actually given me some hope. If I understand it correctly a 59-41 leave for Remain among the regions + London would translate to Leave only needing to be ahead about 54-46 in Rest of England for it to be a score draw. That seems slightly possible.
If rouk+london was 51-49 remain then rest of England only needs to be 50.4 - 49.6 leave.
Roughly soeaking for every % over 50% rest of UK plus London votes Remain, then rest of england needs to vote 0.4% over 50%.
When you look at cold hard figures it is not good for Remain at all - and this is with 100% turnout so no differential turnout effect.
Unless people have read rest of England wrong it looks to me like remain are toast.
Unless I'm very much mistaken, I would say that the anecdotal evidence offered on this site to date strongly favours LEAVE, paricularly with reference to large numbers of voters, eg the Nissan workforce vs a few dozen people in North London. But then again, these are random reports, completely unsubstatiated and unweighted and although interesting, have about the same value as yesterday's fish and chips wrapping.
Most of the anecdotes come from active campaigners for LEAVE, experiencing the natural politeness of the great English public; almost all come from their sympathisers.
If the anecdotal evidence from here is a quarter way accurate Remain will do well to poll in the high teens.....
I was just thinking exactly that - particularly as every Leave vote that has been the subject of an anecdote has been a "surprise" as the poster would have expected them to vote Remain. Don't know why we are waiting till Friday to get the result really.
I bet people who know, much less marry, PBers are going to be more inclined to LEAVE than crude demography would suggest.
Anecdotes are interesting, but there's not the slightest doubt that Remain will win this now.
Why not the slightest doubt? Surely, there's always some doubt.
Of course. I was feeling depressed when I posted that.
I think we can run close, but not reach 50%+.
Whatever the result Mr F the referendum has just reinforced my view that there are a large block of people for whom the current political structures provide no representation.
It has all the feel of an ancien regime about to crumble. Certainly on the right there are lots of voters who now wont vote Conservative again. They have to go somewhere, time for a change.
Thank you, Mr. Cole. Might I suggest that you and I might be an exemplar for how it should be done. We basically agree on the outcome but disagree on the means to get there whilst at the same time acknowledging the valid points the other makes. In this situation you have come down for remain and I have for Leave. No bitterness, no bile, no insults.
Perhaps the solution i to raise the age of the franchise. 70 is probably too high. 60 is probably right but we would have to compromise. Make it fifty, then we might get some serious government focused on the long term common good.
Quite a lot of technical standardisation comes from the WTO (where Norway are at the top table and we are not) then via the EU to us, surely?
The truthful answer to that is that I don't know - you may well be right.
It's relatively rare for technical standardisation to be the source of great controversy, so it's actually a field where I don't mind the WTO doing it.
Be nice if we had a seat like Norway do
I've sat on committees. Lots of people have seats but don't matter.
I'm surprised with all the chat about Norway, Albania, etc. that nobody considers the most obvious parallel to a large and prosperous country in the UK's position, which is that it would be Japan with half the economy and influence. Japan probably has a role in standards of industries which it leads, like robotics, but the rest is not exactly rule-the-waves stuff.
That's a little unfair on Norway, actually. It has influence where it matters. Norway's oil and gas standards have been hugely influential in determining the rest of the EU's.
I agree precisely - If Britain is an industry leader, it will have a natural leadership role as its money will be on the table. Then again, that's already true in the EU, so no diff.
Er, no, we would be at the actual top table, not arguing about what the EU rep takes to the top table.
Unless I'm very much mistaken, I would say that the anecdotal evidence offered on this site to date strongly favours LEAVE, paricularly with reference to large numbers of voters, eg the Nissan workforce vs a few dozen people in North London. But then again, these are random reports, completely unsubstatiated and unweighted and although interesting, have about the same value as yesterday's fish and chips wrapping.
Most of the anecdotes come from active campaigners for LEAVE, experiencing the natural politeness of the great English public; almost all come from their sympathisers.
If the anecdotal evidence from here is a quarter way accurate Remain will do well to poll in the high teens.....
I was just thinking exactly that - particularly as every Leave vote that has been the subject of an anecdote has been a "surprise" as the poster would have expected them to vote Remain. Don't know why we are waiting till Friday to get the result really.
I bet people who know, much less marry, PBers are going to be more inclined to LEAVE than crude demography would suggest.
Anecdotes are interesting, but there's not the slightest doubt that Remain will win this now.
Why not the slightest doubt? Surely, there's always some doubt.
Of course. I was feeling depressed when I posted that.
I think we can run close, but not reach 50%+.
Whatever the result Mr F the referendum has just reinforced ny view that there are a large blokc of people for whom the current political structures provide no representation.
It has all the feel of an ancien regime about to crumble. Certainly on the right there are lots of voters who now wont vote Conservative again. They have to go somewhere, time for a change.
The issue is that the exit price is perceived to be too high, even though I disagree.
Corbyn quite good tonight - he is doing himself no harm and I didn't think I would ever say that
Game changer?
He is sincere and authentic and, in a sea of self-serving shapeshifters, stands out as a consequence.
It's the quality that got him elected leader in the first place.
He sincerely opposed membership of the EU until internal party management 'persuaded' him to become a Remainer. Funny how the usually vociferous Corbynistas on Twitter have been almost anonymous throughout this campaign.
He'll be with Brexit where it really counts... In the Polling Booth!
And, in a post REMAIN world they'll be less of a risk of "integration" under him than there would be the Tories.
Could you ever see Jezza signing up to the Euro? Unlike Cameron and Osborne who'd sell their granny's if they thought they could get away with ditching the Pound.
It's very tiresome hearing Lea is just silly.
Well said, Mr. Alex. I think it entirely possible that with the same object in mind (e.g. the welfare of the Country in the long term) can rationally and reasonably come up with two different routes of how that might be best achieved. It really doesn't need all the bile and anger that we see on here recently and in wider political discourse. Wisdom, let alone good ideas are not the sole prerogative of one side.
Quite Mr L
Are we now at the stage where we can start to look back and ask what has this exercise revealed to us ? My initial thoughts
1.The Tories have a huge split which Cameron and Osborne have made worse. 2. Labour has lost touch with half its supporters 3. Cameron has nothing to offer but managerial fixes 4. Europe hasn't gone away you know 5 The traditional political Left Right axis bears no relation to what voters think, only tribal voting is keeping it a live 6. Farage should make way for someone who can take UKIP forward
Much too early for post mortems, Mr Brooke (not that I would disagree with any of your 6 points).
The polls today will show remain ahead but there is still time for leave to get back ahead. Don't be too downbeat when polls come out today.
Leave would have won this without Farage and his stupid poster and the tragic death of Jo Cox - they still may but the momemtum seems to be with remain
Thank you, Mr. Cole. Might I suggest that you and I might be an exemplar for how it should be done. We basically agree on the outcome but disagree on the means to get there whilst at the same time acknowledging the valid points the other makes. In this situation you have come down for remain and I have for Leave. No bitterness, no bile, no insults.
Perhaps the solution i to raise the age of the franchise. 70 is probably too high. 60 is probably right but we would have to compromise. Make it fifty, then we might get some serious government focused on the long term common good.
I don't remember the phrase being 'no pension without representation'?
The polls today will show remain ahead but there is still time for leave to get back ahead. Don't be too downbeat when polls come out today.
Leave would have won this without Farage and his stupid poster and the tragic death of Jo Cox - they still may but the momemtum seems to be with remain
Corbyn quite good tonight - he is doing himself no harm and I didn't think I would ever say that
Game changer?
He is sincere and authentic and, in a sea of self-serving shapeshifters, stands out as a consequence.
It's the quality that got him elected leader in the first place.
He sincerely opposed membership of the EU until internal party management 'persuaded' him to become a Remainer. Funny how the usually vociferous Corbynistas on Twitter have been almost anonymous throughout this campaign.
He'll be with Brexit where it really counts... In the Polling Booth!
And, in a post REMAIN world they'll be less of a risk of "integration" under him than there would be the Tories.
Could you ever see Jezza signing up to the Euro? Unlike Cameron and Osborne who'd sell their granny's if they thought they could get away with ditching the Pound.
It's very tiresome hearing Lea is just silly.
Well said, Mr. Alex. I think it entirely possible that with the same object in mind (e.g. the welfare of the Country in the long term) can rationally and reasonably come up with two different routes of how that might be best achieved. It really doesn't need all the bile and anger that we see on here recently and in wider political discourse. Wisdom, let alone good ideas are not the sole prerogative of one side.
Quite Mr L
Are we now at the stage where we can start to look back and ask what has this exercise revealed to us ? My initial thoughts
1.The Tories have a huge split which Cameron and Osborne have made worse. 2. Labour has lost touch with half its supporters 3. Cameron has nothing to offer but managerial fixes 4. Europe hasn't gone away you know 5 The traditional political Left Right axis bears no relation to what voters think, only tribal voting is keeping it a live 6. Farage should make way for someone who can take UKIP forward
Much too early for post mortems, Mr Brooke (not that I would disagree with any of your 6 points).
In my view, it could still be 45 or 58 REMAIN! I can't quite see 1975 again, though...
The polls today will show remain ahead but there is still time for leave to get back ahead. Don't be too downbeat when polls come out today.
What astonishes me is the weight people place on the polls. I totally accept that they are better than no evidence but to think that even 5% point leads either way are definitive is stupid.
We are just over a year since an election in which the pollsters called it substantially wrong, and arguably it is harder still to poll the referendum due to lack of recent precedence.
So, we should look at the polls. But we have to factor in uncertainty. Otherwise it's as if we don't learn from history.
Quite a lot of technical standardisation comes from the WTO (where Norway are at the top table and we are not) then via the EU to us, surely?
The truthful answer to that is that I don't know - you may well be right.
It's relatively rare for technical standardisation to be the source of great controversy, so it's actually a field where I don't mind the WTO doing it.
Be nice if we had a seat like Norway do
I've sat on committees. Lots of people have seats but don't matter.
I'm surprised with all the chat about Norway, Albania, etc. that nobody considers the most obvious parallel to a large and prosperous country in the UK's position, which is that it would be Japan with half the economy and influence. Japan probably has a role in standards of industries which it leads, like robotics, but the rest is not exactly rule-the-waves stuff.
That's a little unfair on Norway, actually. It has influence where it matters. Norway's oil and gas standards have been hugely influential in determining the rest of the EU's.
I agree precisely - If Britain is an industry leader, it will have a natural leadership role as its money will be on the table. Then again, that's already true in the EU, so no diff.
Er, no, we would be at the actual top table, not arguing about what the EU rep takes to the top table.
If British negotiators can't convince the EU, they can't convince the WTO.
The polls today will show remain ahead but there is still time for leave to get back ahead. Don't be too downbeat when polls come out today.
Leave would have won this without Farage and his stupid poster and the tragic death of Jo Cox - they still may but the momemtum seems to be with remain
Don't mate. Too painful to hear for us Leavers.
I'm not so sure. If the financial markets forecast a Leave vote, you would see dramatic movements in the value of the pound and the FTSE 100. That would do Leave no good at all.
I think politicians are vastly overestimating the importance of their stance on determining how people will vote.
Quite a lot of technical standardisation comes from the WTO (where Norway are at the top table and we are not) then via the EU to us, surely?
The truthful answer to that is that I don't know - you may well be right.
It's relatively rare for technical standardisation to be the source of great controversy, so it's actually a field where I don't mind the WTO doing it.
Be nice if we had a seat like Norway do
I've sat on committees. Lots of people have seats but don't matter.
I'm surprised with all the chat about Norway, Albania, etc. that nobody considers the most obvious parallel to a large and prosperous country in the UK's position, which is that it would be Japan with half the economy and influence. Japan probably has a role in standards of industries which it leads, like robotics, but the rest is not exactly rule-the-waves stuff.
That's a little unfair on Norway, actually. It has influence where it matters. Norway's oil and gas standards have been hugely influential in determining the rest of the EU's.
I agree precisely - If Britain is an industry leader, it will have a natural leadership role as its money will be on the table. Then again, that's already true in the EU, so no diff.
Er, no, we would be at the actual top table, not arguing about what the EU rep takes to the top table.
If British negotiators can't convince the EU, they can't convince the WTO.
Quite a lot of technical standardisation comes from the WTO (where Norway are at the top table and we are not) then via the EU to us, surely?
The truthful answer to that is that I don't know - you may well be right.
It's relatively rare for technical standardisation to be the source of great controversy, so it's actually a field where I don't mind the WTO doing it.
Be nice if we had a seat like Norway do
I've sat on committees. Lots of people have seats but don't matter.
I'm surprised with all the chat about Norway, Albania, etc. that nobody considers the most obvious parallel to a large and prosperous country in the UK's position, which is that it would be Japan with half the economy and influence. Japan probably has a role in standards of industries which it leads, like robotics, but the rest is not exactly rule-the-waves stuff.
That's a little unfair on Norway, actually. It has influence where it matters. Norway's oil and gas standards have been hugely influential in determining the rest of the EU's.
Unless I'm very much mistaken, I would say that the anecdotal evidence offered on this site to date strongly favours LEAVE, paricularly with reference to large numbers of voters, eg the Nissan workforce vs a few dozen people in North London. But then again, these are random reports, completely unsubstatiated and unweighted and although interesting, have about the same value as yesterday's fish and chips wrapping.
Most of the anecdotes come from active campaigners for LEAVE, experiencing the natural politeness of the great English public; almost all come from their sympathisers.
If the anecdotal evidence from here is a quarter way accurate Remain will do well to poll in the high teens.....
I was just thinking exactly that - particularly as every Leave vote that has been the subject of an anecdote has been a "surprise" as the poster would have expected them to vote Remain. Don't know why we are waiting till Friday to get the result really.
I bet people who know, much less marry, PBers are going to be more inclined to LEAVE than crude demography would suggest.
Anecdotes are interesting, but there's not the slightest doubt that Remain will win this now.
Why not the slightest doubt? Surely, there's always some doubt.
Of course. I was feeling depressed when I posted that.
I think we can run close, but not reach 50%+.
Although I think Remain are now favourites, there seem to me to be two loopholes.
First, the polls may not be accurate enough to measure the difference between Remain and Leave in such a close race. The variations in the strengths of the two sides with geography & the lack of back history of voting make this difficult to poll. I would agree with rcs1000 that the underlying picture could still be 55/45 to either side, and the polls will report 50/50 (to within moe).
Rumor is a pipe Blown by surmises, jealousies, conjectures, And of so easy and so plain a stop That the blunt monster with uncounted heads, The still-discordant wav'ring multitude, Can play upon it.
Henry IV Part 2
Sums up a lot of this thread and a lot of the campaign. I'm heartily sick of hearing how experts are worthless, seeing nonsense touted as fact, finger pointing etc etc etc
BOTH SIDES ARE NOT AS BAD AS EACH OTHER. Unfortunately for those on the Leave side with honourable motives, e.g. Mr Tyndall, they have been saddled with the likes of Farage and while there is plenty to complain about in the Remain campaign, they haven't scraped as far down the bottom of the populist barrel as some elements in Leave.
The Leave anthem for today appears to be to attack Remain for hating people. Oh, the irony.
I am ashamed at the level of ignorance and prejudice displayed by a large number of people.
I despair more than ever at the low level of political understanding of anything whatsoever.
God help the country when we get to Friday, whichever way this goes.
The polls today will show remain ahead but there is still time for leave to get back ahead. Don't be too downbeat when polls come out today.
Leave would have won this without Farage and his stupid poster and the tragic death of Jo Cox - they still may but the momemtum seems to be with remain
Don't mate. Too painful to hear for us Leavers.
I'm not so sure. If the financial markets forecast a Leave vote, you would see dramatic movements in the value of the pound and the FTSE 100. That would do Leave no good at all.
I think politicians are vastly overestimating the importance of their stance on determining how people will vote.
The mini-Rally since Friday creates some room for pre-vote falls this week. Barring some overwhelming remain-leads in the polls it is hard to see markets rising through the rest of this week?
Quite a lot of technical standardisation comes from the WTO (where Norway are at the top table and we are not) then via the EU to us, surely?
The truthful answer to that is that I don't know - you may well be right.
It's relatively rare for technical standardisation to be the source of great controversy, so it's actually a field where I don't mind the WTO doing it.
Be nice if we had a seat like Norway do
I've sat on committees. Lots of people have seats but don't matter.
I'm surprised with all the chat about Norway, Albania, etc. that nobody considers the most obvious parallel to a large and prosperous country in the UK's position, which is that it would be Japan with half the economy and influence. Japan probably has a role in standards of industries which it leads, like robotics, but the rest is not exactly rule-the-waves stuff.
That's a little unfair on Norway, actually. It has influence where it matters. Norway's oil and gas standards have been hugely influential in determining the rest of the EU's.
I agree precisely - If Britain is an industry leader, it will have a natural leadership role as its money will be on the table. Then again, that's already true in the EU, so no diff.
Er, no, we would be at the actual top table, not arguing about what the EU rep takes to the top table.
If British negotiators can't convince the EU, they can't convince the WTO.
No, I'll say again. Regulations at WTO level are decided on a consensus basis.
Quite a lot of technical standardisation comes from the WTO (where Norway are at the top table and we are not) then via the EU to us, surely?
The truthful answer to that is that I don't know - you may well be right.
It's relatively rare for technical standardisation to be the source of great controversy, so it's actually a field where I don't mind the WTO doing it.
Be nice if we had a seat like Norway do
I've sat on committees. Lots of people have seats but don't matter.
I'm surprised with all the chat about Norway, Albania, etc. that nobody considers the most obvious parallel to a large and prosperous country in the UK's position, which is that it would be Japan with half the economy and influence. Japan probably has a role in standards of industries which it leads, like robotics, but the rest is not exactly rule-the-waves stuff.
That's a little unfair on Norway, actually. It has influence where it matters. Norway's oil and gas standards have been hugely influential in determining the rest of the EU's.
Quite a lot of technical standardisation comes from the WTO (where Norway are at the top table and we are not) then via the EU to us, surely?
The truthful answer to that is that I don't know - you may well be right.
It's relatively rare for technical standardisation to be the source of great controversy, so it's actually a field where I don't mind the WTO doing it.
Be nice if we had a seat like Norway do
I've sat on committees. Lots of people have seats but don't matter.
I'm surprised with all the chat about Norway, Albania, etc. that nobody considers the most obvious parallel to a large and prosperous country in the UK's position, which is that it would be Japan with half the economy and influence. Japan probably has a role in standards of industries which it leads, like robotics, but the rest is not exactly rule-the-waves stuff.
That's a little unfair on Norway, actually. It has influence where it matters. Norway's oil and gas standards have been hugely influential in determining the rest of the EU's.
Has ***THE*** Tim returned?
No. We have established this already
Did we? I can't remember... Maybe one day *THE* Tim will return to PB... Scott will be in need of a "foil" post REMAIN!
Even if you don't follow the series, make an effort to watch Game of Thrones season 6 Episode 9 (The last one)
The cinematography is stunning.
Some brutal stuff in it - not your typical glamour shots.
It is probably the most realistic portrayal of medieval combat ever committed to film or television. Absolutely phenomenally done, it still had the odd bit of purely cinematic content but the heart of it was entirely realistic.
Even if you don't follow the series, make an effort to watch Game of Thrones season 6 Episode 9 (The last one)
The cinematography is stunning.
Some brutal stuff in it - not your typical glamour shots.
It is probably the most realistic portrayal of medieval combat ever committed to film or television. Absolutely phenomenally done, it still had the odd bit of purely cinematic content but the heart of it was entirely realistic.
I don't know how anyone ever survived medieval battles.
Whatever the result Mr F the referendum has just reinforced my view that there are a large block of people for whom the current political structures provide no representation.
It has all the feel of an ancien regime about to crumble. Certainly on the right there are lots of voters who now wont vote Conservative again. They have to go somewhere, time for a change.
That I think is spot on, Mr. B. Not only former Conservative voters either. Up the road from me is a post war council estate where a year or so back I did some work, on behalf of Mid-Sussex Council, trying to get people to register to vote. "Why should I bother nobody gives a feck about us" was the most common response, and I have to say that they had a point.
For example, at the time I was doing that work the more than adequate street lighting in my cul de sac was being upgraded because it did not comply to some new standard. Yet the street lighting on the Estate was so inadequate that in some parts it did not exist. It still has not been improved.
There are lots and lots of people who feel that the political parties do not represent them, that they are forgotten and do not matter. In such circumstances the "extremist" parties will prosper. I note that no one on here today has mentioned the new Mayoress of Rome.
Comments
French baroque opera translated to English is also horrific.
No wonder the remainers here are so vocal. They are trying to convince themselves just as the libdems here noisily tried to convince themselves that they were going to hang onto Tory/Libdem contest seats last year (and I was roundly monstered for saying that places like yeovil and sutton were doomed).
To win this, remain have to come close to winning rest of england minus London. That is a hell of a big ask.
It's relatively rare for technical standardisation to be the source of great controversy, so it's actually a field where I don't mind the WTO doing it.
= Vardy substituted/off injured/Slovakia win 5-0.
I think we can run close, but not reach 50%+.
On the other hand some of the EU stuff is really odd and mean. They decided (according to an article I read about Denmark) that you could not smoke fish any more using the age old method because:
1. They thought eating traditional smoked food may be dangerous.
2. It may be bad for the workers...
3. Burning carbon neutral wood apparently is not carbon neutral (Who knew).
As luck would have it though there was a technical solution of a smoking machine using synthetic smoke which recirculates. Made in *cough* Germany. What lucky chaps the Danes are eh?
I'm surprised with all the chat about Norway, Albania, etc. that nobody considers the most obvious parallel to a large and prosperous country in the UK's position, which is that it would be Japan with half the economy and influence. Japan probably has a role in standards of industries which it leads, like robotics, but the rest is not exactly rule-the-waves stuff.
First, the polls may not be accurate enough to measure the difference between Remain and Leave in such a close race. The variations in the strengths of the two sides with geography & the lack of back history of voting make this difficult to poll. I would agree with rcs1000 that the underlying picture could still be 55/45 to either side, and the polls will report 50/50 (to within moe).
Second, there is still time for one further twist. A gaffe, a blunder or another black swan.
To cheer you up, news from Cymru Cymraeg and friends in Plaid Cymru suggest that they having the same difficulty as Welsh Labour in persuading their supporters to do what the Party Leadership is telling them, I expect all of Wales bar Cardiff to vote Leave.
Roughly soeaking for every % over 50% rest of UK plus London votes Remain, then rest of england needs to vote 0.4% over 50%.
When you look at cold hard figures it is not good for Remain at all - and this is with 100% turnout so no differential turnout effect.
Unless people have read rest of England wrong it looks to me like remain are toast.
Wilshire passes to Slovakian players so far: 23
Wilshire passes to Arsenal players last season: 21
#ENGSLO https://t.co/JQ3DKIQLiZ
It has all the feel of an ancien regime about to crumble. Certainly on the right there are lots of voters who now wont vote Conservative again. They have to go somewhere, time for a change.
Perhaps the solution i to raise the age of the franchise. 70 is probably too high. 60 is probably right but we would have to compromise. Make it fifty, then we might get some serious government focused on the long term common good.
If we solve that, Leaving should win a landslide.
We are just over a year since an election in which the pollsters called it substantially wrong, and arguably it is harder still to poll the referendum due to lack of recent precedence.
So, we should look at the polls. But we have to factor in uncertainty. Otherwise it's as if we don't learn from history.
I think politicians are vastly overestimating the importance of their stance on determining how people will vote.
DYOR
Slovakia = Leave
It's by no means over.
Blown by surmises, jealousies, conjectures,
And of so easy and so plain a stop
That the blunt monster with uncounted heads,
The still-discordant wav'ring multitude,
Can play upon it.
Henry IV Part 2
Sums up a lot of this thread and a lot of the campaign.
I'm heartily sick of hearing how experts are worthless, seeing nonsense touted as fact, finger pointing etc etc etc
BOTH SIDES ARE NOT AS BAD AS EACH OTHER. Unfortunately for those on the Leave side with honourable motives, e.g. Mr Tyndall, they have been saddled with the likes of Farage and while there is plenty to complain about in the Remain campaign, they haven't scraped as far down the bottom of the populist barrel as some elements in Leave.
The Leave anthem for today appears to be to attack Remain for hating people. Oh, the irony.
I am ashamed at the level of ignorance and prejudice displayed by a large number of people.
I despair more than ever at the low level of political understanding of anything whatsoever.
God help the country when we get to Friday, whichever way this goes.
Looks like he will be close again.
Got to hand it to him.
At the EU level they do not seem to be.
For every 1% over 50% Scotland+London+Wales+NI+Gib vote remain
Rest of England need to vote Brexit by 0.4% over 50%.
And that is based on 100% turnout. Add in differential turnout and it gets even better for leave.
The maths favour Brexit as long as rest of England delivers.
Anyway sadly The ARSE has been kept covered up for weeks due to illness... So we'll never know if Jack's ARSE would have wobbled last week!
GE level turnout, or lower.
It is not the instrument of choice in referendums.
For example, at the time I was doing that work the more than adequate street lighting in my cul de sac was being upgraded because it did not comply to some new standard. Yet the street lighting on the Estate was so inadequate that in some parts it did not exist. It still has not been improved.
There are lots and lots of people who feel that the political parties do not represent them, that they are forgotten and do not matter. In such circumstances the "extremist" parties will prosper. I note that no one on here today has mentioned the new Mayoress of Rome.
Remain: 53%
Leave: 47% https://t.co/HnnESZRB6Y