Unless I'm very much mistaken, I would say that the anecdotal evidence offered on this site to date strongly favours LEAVE, paricularly with reference to large numbers of voters, eg the Nissan workforce vs a few dozen people in North London. But then again, these are random reports, completely unsubstatiated and unweighted and although interesting, have about the same value as yesterday's fish and chips wrapping.
Most of the anecdotes come from active campaigners for LEAVE, experiencing the natural politeness of the great English public; almost all come from their sympathisers.
If the anecdotal evidence from here is a quarter way accurate Remain will do well to poll in the high teens.....
I was just thinking exactly that - particularly as every Leave vote that has been the subject of an anecdote has been a "surprise" as the poster would have expected them to vote Remain. Don't know why we are waiting till Friday to get the result really.
I bet people who know, much less marry, PBers are going to be more inclined to LEAVE than crude demography would suggest.
Anecdotes are interesting, but there's not the slightest doubt that Remain will win this now.
Why not the slightest doubt? Surely, there's always some doubt.
Of course. I was feeling depressed when I posted that.
I think we can run close, but not reach 50%+.
Whatever the result Mr F the referendum has just reinforced my view that there are a large block of people for whom the current political structures provide no representation.
It has all the feel of an ancien regime about to crumble. Certainly on the right there are lots of voters who now wont vote Conservative again. They have to go somewhere, time for a change.
I think there is an ending coming to the Conservative Party. Just think of the numbers of Conservative-voting authorities that will vote Leave on Thursday.
How much are these England players paid - their ball control is dreadful
I believe that for these games, the England players are paid nothing. (They do get a payment from the FA but they have an agreement that it all goes to charity).
Got to ask. Whilst it is probably in line with expectations and I wouldn't have been surprised if it had been a snapshot from the last few days, what the hell is the point of a 4 week polling period when things are changing so quickly?
Unless I'm very much mistaken, I would say that the anecdotal evidence offered on this site to date strongly favours LEAVE, paricularly with reference to large numbers of voters, eg the Nissan workforce vs a few dozen people in North London. But then again, these are random reports, completely unsubstatiated and unweighted and although interesting, have about the same value as yesterday's fish and chips wrapping.
Most of the anecdotes come from active campaigners for LEAVE, experiencing the natural politeness of the great English public; almost all come from their sympathisers.
If the anecdotal evidence from here is a quarter way accurate Remain will do well to poll in the high teens.....
I was just thinking exactly that - particularly as every Leave vote that has been the subject of an anecdote has been a "surprise" as the poster would have expected them to vote Remain. Don't know why we are waiting till Friday to get the result really.
I bet people who know, much less marry, PBers are going to be more inclined to LEAVE than crude demography would suggest.
Anecdotes are interesting, but there's not the slightest doubt that Remain will win this now.
Why not the slightest doubt? Surely, there's always some doubt.
Of course. I was feeling depressed when I posted that.
I think we can run close, but not reach 50%+.
Although I think Remain are now favourites, there seem to me to be two loopholes.
First, the polls may not be accurate enough to measure the difference between Remain and Leave in such a close race. The variations in the strengths of the two sides with geography & the lack of back history of voting make this difficult to poll. I would agree with rcs1000 that the underlying picture could still be 55/45 to either side, and the polls will report 50/50 (to within moe).
Second, there is still time for one further twist. A gaffe, a blunder or another black swan.
To cheer you up, news from Cymru Cymraeg and friends in Plaid Cymru suggest that they having the same difficulty as Welsh Labour in persuading their supporters to do what the Party Leadership is telling them, I expect all of Wales bar Cardiff to vote Leave.
Whatever the result Mr F the referendum has just reinforced my view that there are a large block of people for whom the current political structures provide no representation.
It has all the feel of an ancien regime about to crumble. Certainly on the right there are lots of voters who now wont vote Conservative again. They have to go somewhere, time for a change.
That I think is spot on, Mr. B. Not only former Conservative voters either. Up the road from me is a post war council estate where a year or so back I did some work, on behalf of Mid-Sussex Council, trying to get people to register to vote. "Why should I bother nobody gives a feck about us" was the most common response, and I have to say that they had a point.
For example, at the time I was doing that work the more than adequate street lighting in my cul de sac was being upgraded because it did not comply to some new standard. Yet the street lighting on the Estate was so inadequate that in some parts it did not exist. It still has not been improved.
There are lots and lots of people who feel that the political parties do not represent them, that they are forgotten and do not matter. In such circumstances the "extremist" parties will prosper. I note that no one on here today has mentioned the new Mayoress of Rome.
Got to ask. Whilst it is probably in line with expectations and I wouldn't have been surprised if it had been a snapshot from the last few days, what the hell is the point of a 4 week polling period when things are changing so quickly?
Quality over quantity, perhaps they've taken their time to get a better sample?
Even if you don't follow the series, make an effort to watch Game of Thrones season 6 Episode 9 (The last one)
The cinematography is stunning.
Some brutal stuff in it - not your typical glamour shots.
It is probably the most realistic portrayal of medieval combat ever committed to film or television. Absolutely phenomenally done, it still had the odd bit of purely cinematic content but the heart of it was entirely realistic.
I don't know how anyone ever survived medieval battles.
That's something else they got so right in Game of Thrones.
Basically, regardless of how skilled you were, or how well trained you were, once you were in melee combat in an open battle (before or after it turned into a pushing contest, which almost all of them were) you only survived based on luck.
You are more likely to die from suffocation or drowning and just as likely to die from someone on your own side as you were from an enemy weapon.
Of course very few battles featured open combat, it was all close combat in drilled formations. Again something Game of Thrones got spot on in this episode (albeit only for one side, while the other ended up as you would expect an undrilled, partisan army).
Unless I'm very much mistaken, I would say that the anecdotal evidence offered on this site to date strongly favours LEAVE, paricularly with reference to large numbers of voters, eg the Nissan workforce vs a few dozen people in North London. But then again, these are random reports, completely unsubstatiated and unweighted and although interesting, have about the same value as yesterday's fish and chips wrapping.
Most of the anecdotes come from active campaigners for LEAVE, experiencing the natural politeness of the great English public; almost all come from their sympathisers.
If the anecdotal evidence from here is a quarter way accurate Remain will do well to poll in the high teens.....
I was just thinking exactly that - particularly as every Leave vote that has been the subject of an anecdote has been a "surprise" as the poster would have expected them to vote Remain. Don't know why we are waiting till Friday to get the result really.
I bet people who know, much less marry, PBers are going to be more inclined to LEAVE than crude demography would suggest.
Anecdotes are interesting, but there's not the slightest doubt that Remain will win this now.
Why not the slightest doubt? Surely, there's always some doubt.
Of course. I was feeling depressed when I posted that.
I think we can run close, but not reach 50%+.
Although I think Remain are now favourites, there seem to me to be two loopholes.
First, the polls may not be accurate enough to measure the difference between Remain and Leave in such a close race. The variations in the strengths of the two sides with geography & the lack of back history of voting make this difficult to poll. I would agree with rcs1000 that the underlying picture could still be 55/45 to either side, and the polls will report 50/50 (to within moe).
This is totally true. So much sense in this post.
Another thing to add is the huge pressure on pollsters this time. Not just professionally, in terms of reputation, but the fact their polls may move markets and cost/make people billions.
I'm not sure I'd judge that pressure worth it. I can perfectly understand why ICM folded early.
Canvassing experience, I wouldn't be surprised to see some shy leavers in tonight's polls.
Granted this was West Yorkshire, but there's some Leavers who are very shy and reticent to tell people they are Leavers.
You can't blame them...
FWIW
Everything has changed sine the MP was murdered.. Leave are fecked.. Whether Leave are racist or xenophobic or not, they will be seen as so by many and Remain will win.
They do the British social attitudes survey with, I think 3000 targets who are selected at random and are hunted down for responses. Polling companies use it as a reference for their weighting strategies as they can't afford that kind of rigour.
Four week survey period? What's the point of that in such a fast moving campaign?
Depends if you believe that campaigns really change anything, or whether they ultimately serve to reinforce underlying voting intention ie. people will be given arguments/propaganda from both sides and ultimately will get attracted to the messages that reinforce how they were always intending to vote.
While the second one is pretty tasteless, I think it is legitimate to point out that a lot of the refugees to the EU have mostly been young male economic migrants, rather than those who actually need it.
Canvassing experience, I wouldn't be surprised to see some shy leavers in tonight's polls.
Granted this was West Yorkshire, but there's some Leavers who are very shy and reticent to tell people they are Leavers.
You can't blame them...
FWIW
Everything has changed sine the MP was murdered.. Leave are fecked.. Whether Leave are racist or xenophobic or not, they will be seen as so by many and Remain will win.
And of course you will do your best to promote that view I am sure.
Even if you don't follow the series, make an effort to watch Game of Thrones season 6 Episode 9 (The last one)
The cinematography is stunning.
Some brutal stuff in it - not your typical glamour shots.
It is probably the most realistic portrayal of medieval combat ever committed to film or television. Absolutely phenomenally done, it still had the odd bit of purely cinematic content but the heart of it was entirely realistic.
I don't know how anyone ever survived medieval battles.
That's something else they got so right in Game of Thrones.
Basically, regardless of how skilled you were, or how well trained you were, once you were in melee combat in an open battle (before or after it turned into a pushing contest, which almost all of them were) you only survived based on luck.
You are more likely to die from suffocation or drowning and just as likely to die from someone on your own side as you were from an enemy weapon.
Of course very few battles featured open combat, it was all close combat in drilled formations. Again something Game of Thrones got spot on in this episode (albeit only for one side, while the other ended up as you would expect an undrilled, partisan army).
Excellent battle scene. Meereen is fun too. But (in contrast to her book persona) Sansa is a duplicitous shit.
Unless I'm very much mistaken, I would say that the anecdotal evidence offered on this site to date strongly favours LEAVE, paricularly with reference to large numbers of voters, eg the Nissan workforce vs a few dozen people in North London. But then again, these are random reports, completely unsubstatiated and unweighted and although interesting, have about the same value as yesterday's fish and chips wrapping.
Most of the anecdotes come from active campaigners for LEAVE, experiencing the natural politeness of the great English public; almost all come from their sympathisers.
If the anecdotal evidence from here is a quarter way accurate Remain will do well to poll in the high teens.....
I was just thinking exactly that - particularly as every Leave vote that has been the subject of an anecdote has been a "surprise" as the poster would have expected them to vote Remain. Don't know why we are waiting till Friday to get the result really.
I bet people who know, much less marry, PBers are going to be more inclined to LEAVE than crude demography would suggest.
Anecdotes are interesting, but there's not the slightest doubt that Remain will win this now.
Why not the slightest doubt? Surely, there's always some doubt.
Of course. I was feeling depressed when I posted that.
I think we can run close, but not reach 50%+.
Whatever the result Mr F the referendum has just reinforced my view that there are a large block of people for whom the current political structures provide no representation.
It has all the feel of an ancien regime about to crumble. Certainly on the right there are lots of voters who now wont vote Conservative again. They have to go somewhere, time for a change.
I think there is an ending coming to the Conservative Party. Just think of the numbers of Conservative-voting authorities that will vote Leave on Thursday.
People have predicted the end of the party since RC emancipation in the 1829! Life and the party goes on.
Canvassing experience, I wouldn't be surprised to see some shy leavers in tonight's polls.
Granted this was West Yorkshire, but there's some Leavers who are very shy and reticent to tell people they are Leavers.
You can't blame them...
FWIW
Everything has changed sine the MP was murdered.. Leave are fecked.. Whether Leave are racist or xenophobic or not, they will be seen as so by many and Remain will win.
And of course you will do your best to promote that view I am sure.
Nahh.. I post very infrequently these days , I just call it as I see it.
Wales looked really good again today and I think they only need more confidence in their own abilities to do really, really well (maybe Croatia 1998 well - or, maybe even Greece 2004/Denmark 1992 well).
If they can lose the lack of confidence and tendency to sit in once ahead, they can do a lot of damage to anyone.
They do the British social attitudes survey with, I think 3000 targets who are selected at random and are hunted down for responses. Polling companies use it as a reference for their weighting strategies as they can't afford that kind of rigour.
Even a superb sample will not allow for 1) shy Leavers 2) a more proletarian turnout than expected 3) better Leave scores for the over 75s (have any pollsters bothered to make sure their 65+ sub samples are properly weighted?)
That's something else they got so right in Game of Thrones.
Basically, regardless of how skilled you were, or how well trained you were, once you were in melee combat in an open battle (before or after it turned into a pushing contest, which almost all of them were) you only survived based on luck.
You are more likely to die from suffocation or drowning and just as likely to die from someone on your own side as you were from an enemy weapon.
Of course very few battles featured open combat, it was all close combat in drilled formations. Again something Game of Thrones got spot on in this episode (albeit only for one side, while the other ended up as you would expect an undrilled, partisan army).
Excellent battle scene. Meereen is fun too. But (in contrast to her book persona) Sansa is a duplicitous shit.
I thought Sophie Turner was amazing in the final scene. The way she played it, the move to look away then look back and the smirk as she left was superb. It does suggest that she was the perfect casting if the new X-Men do Dark Phoenix (which they are supposed to be doing).
Unless I'm very much mistaken, I would say that the anecdotal evidence offered on this site to date strongly favours LEAVE, paricularly with reference to large numbers of voters, eg the Nissan workforce vs a few dozen people in North London. But then again, these are random reports, completely unsubstatiated and unweighted and although interesting, have about the same value as yesterday's fish and chips wrapping.
Most of the anecdotes come from active campaigners for LEAVE, experiencing the natural politeness of the great English public; almost all come from their sympathisers.
If the anecdotal evidence from here is a quarter way accurate Remain will do well to poll in the high teens.....
I was just thinking exactly that - particularly as every Leave vote that has been the subject of an anecdote has been a "surprise" as the poster would have expected them to vote Remain. Don't know why we are waiting till Friday to get the result really.
I bet people who know, much less marry, PBers are going to be more inclined to LEAVE than crude demography would suggest.
Anecdotes are interesting, but there's not the slightest doubt that Remain will win this now.
Why not the slightest doubt? Surely, there's always some doubt.
Of course. I was feeling depressed when I posted that.
I think we can run close, but not reach 50%+.
Whatever the result Mr F the referendum has just reinforced my view that there are a large block of people for whom the current political structures provide no representation.
It has all the feel of an ancien regime about to crumble. Certainly on the right there are lots of voters who now wont vote Conservative again. They have to go somewhere, time for a change.
I think there is an ending coming to the Conservative Party. Just think of the numbers of Conservative-voting authorities that will vote Leave on Thursday.
People have predicted the end of the party since RC emancipation in the 1829! Life and the party goes on.
I think things have been said throughout this campaign which are hard to unsay. One group of Conservatives think the other are effete Metroplitan snobs. The other think their opponents are bigots with blood on their hands.
Remain should win this now, though probably not by as much as No in Scotland the question is really about the margin, it no longer looks neck and neck. Still, 3 days to go
Many, me including me, called it for Leave when they got a confluence of great polls. Now, that's because I never learn not to overreact, but I shall try, and so not now call it for Remain based of a series of good polls.
All we've got to cling to is that another polling disaster is upon us. Not much but after the strange things that happened with the polls on the Eve of the 2015 general election, who knows...
Thank you, Mr. Cole. Might I suggest that you and I might be an exemplar for how it should be done. We basically agree on the outcome but disagree on the means to get there whilst at the same time acknowledging the valid points the other makes. In this situation you have come down for remain and I have for Leave. No bitterness, no bile, no insults.
Perhaps the solution i to raise the age of the franchise. 70 is probably too high. 60 is probably right but we would have to compromise. Make it fifty, then we might get some serious government focused on the long term common good.
I don't remember the phrase being 'no pension without representation'?
Well, if taxation should equal representation then there are a lot of businesses which should have a vote a la The City). Alternatively, if you are keen on no taxation without representation, maybe, the amount paid in tax should determine the value of a person's vote (e.g. a person who pays twice the average personal tax should have their vote counted twice and a person who pays no tax should not have a vote).
Personally I think the universal suffrage is a one way ticket to perdition and national penury, in fact democracy itself is a bloody silly idea and is doomed. I recognise that might be a minority view, but at least it is a considered one.
Even if you don't follow the series, make an effort to watch Game of Thrones season 6 Episode 9 (The last one)
The cinematography is stunning.
Some brutal stuff in it - not your typical glamour shots.
It is probably the most realistic portrayal of medieval combat ever committed to film or television. Absolutely phenomenally done, it still had the odd bit of purely cinematic content but the heart of it was entirely realistic.
I don't know how anyone ever survived medieval battles.
That's something else they got so right in Game of Thrones.
Basically, regardless of how skilled you were, or how well trained you were, once you were in melee combat in an open battle (before or after it turned into a pushing contest, which almost all of them were) you only survived based on luck.
You are more likely to die from suffocation or drowning and just as likely to die from someone on your own side as you were from an enemy weapon.
Of course very few battles featured open combat, it was all close combat in drilled formations. Again something Game of Thrones got spot on in this episode (albeit only for one side, while the other ended up as you would expect an undrilled, partisan army).
Excellent battle scene. Meereen is fun too. But (in contrast to her book persona) Sansa is a duplicitous shit.
I kind of always thought she'd end up that way even in the books, although it's been a while - as far as they've gotten, I felt the overall message was she was a bit crap at complex leadership.
Many, me including me, called it for Leave when they got a confluence of great polls. Now, that's because I never learn not to overreact, but I shall try, and so not now call it for Remain based of a series of good polls.
Demographics, message, passion, all favour Leave.
Well I for one have no idea what the result will be but there is not too long to wait now
Comments
Remain: 53%
Leave: 47%
(via NatCen / online & phone)
Four week survey period.
Excluding DKs.
https://t.co/QVwBRscRUZ
One might imagine you get what you pay for.
Ok, in this case clearly I will accept the Establishment has done some rigging.
Granted this was West Yorkshire, but there's some Leavers who are very shy and reticent to tell people they are Leavers.
We could all be hugely out on this.
Where do you live? I live in Mid Sussex....
Professor John Curtice rates them, that's good enough for me.
IIRC their polls for the GE they got the results right, they are very good in getting represenatitve samples
Basically, regardless of how skilled you were, or how well trained you were, once you were in melee combat in an open battle (before or after it turned into a pushing contest, which almost all of them were) you only survived based on luck.
You are more likely to die from suffocation or drowning and just as likely to die from someone on your own side as you were from an enemy weapon.
Of course very few battles featured open combat, it was all close combat in drilled formations. Again something Game of Thrones got spot on in this episode (albeit only for one side, while the other ended up as you would expect an undrilled, partisan army).
I'm not sure I'd judge that pressure worth it. I can perfectly understand why ICM folded early.
Is it just as assumption because of Farage and Jo Cox's murder or is there more to it?
Everything has changed sine the MP was murdered.. Leave are fecked.. Whether Leave are racist or xenophobic or not, they will be seen as so by many and Remain will win.
So that's one down. ORB and YouGov still to go?
Vote Leave board member quits over anti-Muslim retweets
Businesswoman Arabella Arkwright resigns after Guardian asked her about activity on her social media account
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/20/vote-leave-board-member-quits-over-anti-muslim-retweets
The people of England minus London wont let us down.
Trouble is if its taken them four weeks to do it, some of the views will be out of date.
Remains campaign must be pure horseshit.
If they can lose the lack of confidence and tendency to sit in once ahead, they can do a lot of damage to anyone.
Remain: 53% (+5)
Leave: 46% (-3)
(via ORB, phone / )
Certain to vote.
Even a superb sample will not allow for 1) shy Leavers 2) a more proletarian turnout than expected 3) better Leave scores for the over 75s (have any pollsters bothered to make sure their 65+ sub samples are properly weighted?)
It had all the hallmarks of Hodgson not having a fecking clue what his best team is....
- Top of their group.
- Top tournament goalscorers (6).
- Top tournament goalscorer (Bale).
#WAL https://t.co/FmkBSiOZCq
EU referendum poll:
Remain: 53% (+5)
Leave: 46% (-3)
(via ORB, phone / )
Certain to vote.
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/744995895410892800
Remain: 53% (+5)
Leave: 46% (-3)
(via ORB, phone / )
Certain to vote.
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/744995895410892800
Demographics, message, passion, all favour Leave.
Did anyone get the result of the last GE right to within a 3% swing?
Personally I think the universal suffrage is a one way ticket to perdition and national penury, in fact democracy itself is a bloody silly idea and is doomed. I recognise that might be a minority view, but at least it is a considered one.
Certain to vote:
REMAIN 53 (+5)
LEAVE 46 (-3)
All adults:
REMAIN 49 (=)
LEAVE 47 (+3)
16th-19th
N=800
#Brexit
https://twitter.com/NCPoliticsEU/status/744997556372017153
As ever it's all about the GOTV.
Can Portugal do it?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/20/remain-surge-back-into-the-lead-in-wake-of-jo-cox-murder---but-e/