This not listening to experts meme is not going to help Remain. People just don't believe them anymore. Not saying its a good thing. Just the way it is.
It's unarguably not a good thing. The Trumpification of politics is bad news. For everybody.
Remain relying on 18-24 year olds in full time education. Lol. Their turnout will be 55℅ at best.
*Anecdote Alert* During the 2010 General Election, my university had a polling station for the roughly 1500 people living on campus. Apparently turnout was around 30%, yes some people may have voted in their home constituency, by post, but I don't suspect the number was particularly great, I only know of two people who did and one them was myself. Maybe the EU Referendum will enthuse a higher turnout, personally I doubt whether students 18-24, will be able to get to 50% turnout.
18-24 year olds have historically had low-turnout, and the old have traditionally had high turnout Good for Leave
ABs and the university educated usually turn up to vote, and those without qualifications or in C2 or DE are less likely to Good for Remain
I think TC has this one right; if the WWC turns up, it's Leave. If they don't, it's Remain.
I don't accept that it is the WWC who are voting in strength for Leave . The WWC I suspect will think about the threat to their jobs and vote Remain . The WNWC , the unemployed and shirkers who expect to receive benefits whilst sitting at home watching horse racing on the TV on the other hand will vote strongly for Leave
You might not accept it, but they are. You may think it irrational, they though should think about threat to their jobs, but most don't appear to care - or they think there's threats to those anyway, so why not express the anger they have toward the EU and the government.
We shall see on Thursday who is right .
Are you sure ?
That would be a remarkably quick analysis of the polling seeing as not even Sunderland will have finished the count by midnight
Given the US has the 4th July, what about the 5th July? It would make things easier what with the inter-connected banking system. And 5th July is the anniversary of the 1945 general election.
What's wrong with 23rd June?
Indeed, it's my birthday as well as being very adjacent to the summer Solstice.
Remain relying on 18-24 year olds in full time education. Lol. Their turnout will be 55℅ at best.
I do wonder about the reliability of turnout figures for this age group. Remember that most students can be registered to vote in 2 places but can only vote in 1, which caps the turnout for them at 50%.
Since this is a national election does it matter where people are registered?
Given the US has the 4th July, what about the 5th July? It would make things easier what with the inter-connected banking system. And 5th July is the anniversary of the 1945 general election.
What's wrong with 23rd June?
Indeed, it's my birthday as well as being very adjacent to the summer Solstice.
Remain relying on 18-24 year olds in full time education. Lol. Their turnout will be 55℅ at best.
*Anecdote Alert* During the 2010 General Election, my university had a polling station for the roughly 1500 people living on campus. Apparently turnout was around 30%, yes some people may have voted in their home constituency, by post, but I don't suspect the number was particularly great, I only know of two people who did and one them was myself. Maybe the EU Referendum will enthuse a higher turnout, personally I doubt whether students 18-24, will be able to get to 50% turnout.
18-24 year olds have historically had low-turnout, and the old have traditionally had high turnout Good for Leave
ABs and the university educated usually turn up to vote, and those without qualifications or in C2 or DE are less likely to Good for Remain
I think TC has this one right; if the WWC turns up, it's Leave. If they don't, it's Remain.
I don't accept that it is the WWC who are voting in strength for Leave . The WWC I suspect will think about the threat to their jobs and vote Remain . The WNWC , the unemployed and shirkers who expect to receive benefits whilst sitting at home watching horse racing on the TV on the other hand will vote strongly for Leave
Is that assertion based upon polling evidence or sheer prejudice?
Yes based on polling evidence . Around 6 weeks ago ( ICM IIRC ) had a poll which showed Leave being favoured by only 2 groups the Unemployed and the Retired . You and several other Leavers on here got quite upset with me when I pointed this out .
Things have moved on. All polls show working class voters favour Leave now. Home owners also favour Leave. Are you saying home owners are chavvy layabouts?
''Sitting in Hampstead, and I realise I'm getting a very London-centric view, I'm not sure I agree. It's 29-1 in my office, and I've counted North of 30 Remain posters in my 'hood at the weekend, against zero for Leave.''
Indeed, but ABC1 takes many forms. JohnO has posted how shocked he was at the support for Leave in Elmbridge, which is Britain's taxpayer powerhouse.
I have a feeling when some pollsters think ABC1 they think well paid public sector civil servants - but anyway, we shall see.
I've done several canvassing sessions with Labour In in London - admittedly it's a borough identified as leaning to Remain but the results have been overwhelming - you're looking at more than 70% remain - perhaps 80% assuming the don't knows split 50-50. Leavers are a tiny minority, even in social housing estates.
Other canvassers have reported the contrary. Perhaps punters just tell you what they think you want to hear.
Ironically, I read the document on the VAT proposal last night while discussing the EU with a friend online (I know, I'm a bit sad).
It does strike me that it actually said nearly the opposite of what Vote Leave are claiming - that the EU propose making VAT exclusions and zero rating more flexible, and suggest either making it easier and swifter to update the list of exclusions and zero rating, or getting rid of the entire list and letting Member States largely do exclusions and zero ratings as they see fit.
To be fair, the earlier Remain bombshell had a large amount of bullshit in it (exaggeration of actual claims and taking worst cases, plus comparing between two alternative rates of increase), but this one is actually diametrically opposed to what it's based on.
Sadly, I'm confident very few will bother to check either.
This not listening to experts meme is not going to help Remain. People just don't believe them anymore. Not saying its a good thing. Just the way it is.
It's unarguably not a good thing. The Trumpification of politics is bad news. For everybody.
When environments are changing, experts are the absolute worst predictors. They have the most invested in the existing paradigm.
I am anti-Trump. But the Trumpification of politics, as you put it, has come about not because of him, but because of the serial failures of the expert politicians.
Given the US has the 4th July, what about the 5th July? It would make things easier what with the inter-connected banking system. And 5th July is the anniversary of the 1945 general election.
What's wrong with 23rd June?
Indeed, it's my birthday as well as being very adjacent to the summer Solstice.
''Sitting in Hampstead, and I realise I'm getting a very London-centric view, I'm not sure I agree. It's 29-1 in my office, and I've counted North of 30 Remain posters in my 'hood at the weekend, against zero for Leave.''
Indeed, but ABC1 takes many forms. JohnO has posted how shocked he was at the support for Leave in Elmbridge, which is Britain's taxpayer powerhouse.
I have a feeling when some pollsters think ABC1 they think well paid public sector civil servants - but anyway, we shall see.
I've done several canvassing sessions with Labour In in London - admittedly it's a borough identified as leaning to Remain but the results have been overwhelming - you're looking at more than 70% remain - perhaps 80% assuming the don't knows split 50-50. Leavers are a tiny minority, even in social housing estates.
So, putting it simply, the people most likely to swing a leave vote are those who currently contribute the least, and those who will have to live with the consequences for the shortest amount of time.
Ain't democracy grand.
They are people who have been left behind by globalisation. Either old dogs who don't want to learn new tricks or dogs who never had any tricks. I don't think they are right about the EU, but leaving is a rational choice for them and I think their thinking deserves some understanding.
Most pensioners do not care as much about themselves as they do about the futures of their children and grandchildren. Please take that as a starting point and then think about why the vote as they do.
The issue with that is that their children and grandchildren have a different view from them as to where their own interests lie. I don't intend to denigrate older people's viewpoints and I can see it might have come across that I do. It's that the world is a different place from what it was in the seventies and before.
Mr 43, A child may well have a different view on an issue from its parent. That does not however stop the parent from doing what it thinks it is in the best interest of the child, and nor should it.
I didn't say it does nor that it should. Apart from the fact people have perfectly sensible reasons for making their individual and different choices - as a generalisation I think Leave is a rational choice for older people, as I said at the start.
Fair Go, Mr 43, let me phrase it another way. It doesn't matter a toss to me (an older person) personally whether we stay in or go out, I am not likely to be around long enough to be bothered either way. What I do care about is the future my son will have to cope with. So I'll vote accordingly.
Remain relying on 18-24 year olds in full time education. Lol. Their turnout will be 55℅ at best.
I do wonder about the reliability of turnout figures for this age group. Remember that most students can be registered to vote in 2 places but can only vote in 1, which caps the turnout for them at 50%.
Since this is a national election does it matter where people are registered?
Yes if they are registered twice, because it will bring the aggregate turnout down. In the case of students who are registered at home and at college they will have a maximum turnout of 50% even if they all vote. Probably doesn't make a big difference overall but could be a significant factor in why official turnout stats have such low figures amongst 18-24s.
''Sitting in Hampstead, and I realise I'm getting a very London-centric view, I'm not sure I agree. It's 29-1 in my office, and I've counted North of 30 Remain posters in my 'hood at the weekend, against zero for Leave.''
Indeed, but ABC1 takes many forms. JohnO has posted how shocked he was at the support for Leave in Elmbridge, which is Britain's taxpayer powerhouse.
I have a feeling when some pollsters think ABC1 they think well paid public sector civil servants - but anyway, we shall see.
I've done several canvassing sessions with Labour In in London - admittedly it's a borough identified as leaning to Remain but the results have been overwhelming - you're looking at more than 70% remain - perhaps 80% assuming the don't knows split 50-50. Leavers are a tiny minority, even in social housing estates.
Other canvassers have reported the contrary. Perhaps punters just tell you what they think you want to hear.
I think it's more a case of where one is canvassing. Canvass Lambeth, and you'll get overwhelming support for Remain. Canvass Havering, and you'll get overwhelming support for Leave.
Strange couple of threads - mass panic among Leavers for no obvious reason except the markets, and that could be profit-taking or false rumours or who knows what. The weekend polls did suggest that Remain was catching up, but overcoming the undoubtedly less favouralbe postasl votes must be a challenge.
I replied in the last thread about Remain GOTV work - lots in London, not sure about elsewhere. Is there a serious Leave GOTV operation?
Remain relying on 18-24 year olds in full time education. Lol. Their turnout will be 55℅ at best.
*Anecdote Alert* During the 2010 General Election, my university had a polling station for the roughly 1500 people living on campus. Apparently turnout was around 30%, yes some people may have voted in their home constituency, by post, but I don't suspect the number was particularly great, I only know of two people who did and one them was myself. Maybe the EU Referendum will enthuse a higher turnout, personally I doubt whether students 18-24, will be able to get to 50% turnout.
18-24 year olds have historically had low-turnout, and the old have traditionally had high turnout Good for Leave
ABs and the university educated usually turn up to vote, and those without qualifications or in C2 or DE are less likely to Good for Remain
I think TC has this one right; if the WWC turns up, it's Leave. If they don't, it's Remain.
I don't accept that it is the WWC who are voting in strength for Leave . The WWC I suspect will think about the threat to their jobs and vote Remain . The WNWC , the unemployed and shirkers who expect to receive benefits whilst sitting at home watching horse racing on the TV on the other hand will vote strongly for Leave
Is that assertion based upon polling evidence or sheer prejudice?
Yes based on polling evidence . Around 6 weeks ago ( ICM IIRC ) had a poll which showed Leave being favoured by only 2 groups the Unemployed and the Retired . You and several other Leavers on here got quite upset with me when I pointed this out .
Things have moved on. All polls show working class voters favour Leave now. Home owners also favour Leave. Are you saying home owners are chavvy layabouts?
I would expect renters to do better out of Brexit than home owners, especially in London.
This not listening to experts meme is not going to help Remain. People just don't believe them anymore. Not saying its a good thing. Just the way it is.
It's unarguably not a good thing. The Trumpification of politics is bad news. For everybody.
No, it's a hugely 'good thing'. The corollary of 'experts' doing the thinking is people not doing the thinking. That's the whole point. Stay in the EU, because experts say so. We've got it right on health even though you're sick. There's no God, because Professor Dawkins has written so on a bus - so that's ok then. The reaction isn't against intellectuals, it's against an obnoxious and compromised commentariat using men in white coats as a stick to beat independent thought out of people, not into them. Blanket dismissal of such pronouncements isn't a sophisticated response, but as a default one it could be worse.
Remain relying on 18-24 year olds in full time education. Lol. Their turnout will be 55℅ at best.
I do wonder about the reliability of turnout figures for this age group. Remember that most students can be registered to vote in 2 places but can only vote in 1, which caps the turnout for them at 50%.
Since this is a national election does it matter where people are registered?
Yes if they are registered twice, because it will bring the aggregate turnout down. In the case of students who are registered at home and at college they will have a maximum turnout of 50% even if they all vote. Probably doesn't make a big difference overall but could be a significant factor in why official turnout stats have such low figures amongst 18-24s.
So, putting it simply, the people most likely to swing a leave vote are those who currently contribute the least, and those who will have to live with the consequences for the shortest amount of time.
Ain't democracy grand.
They are people who have been left behind by globalisation. Either old dogs who don't want to learn new tricks or dogs who never had any tricks. I don't think they are right about the EU, but leaving is a rational choice for them and I think their thinking deserves some understanding.
Most pensioners do not care as much about themselves as they do about the futures of their children and grandchildren. Please take that as a starting point and then think about why the vote as they do.
The issue with that is that their children and grandchildren have a different view from them as to where their own interests lie. I don't intend to denigrate older people's viewpoints and I can see it might have come across that I do. It's that the world is a different place from what it was in the seventies and before.
Mr 43, A child may well have a different view on an issue from its parent. That does not however stop the parent from doing what it thinks it is in the best interest of the child, and nor should it.
I didn't say it does nor that it should. Apart from the fact people have perfectly sensible reasons for making their individual and different choices - as a generalisation I think Leave is a rational choice for older people, as I said at the start.
Fair Go, Mr 43, let me phrase it another way. It doesn't matter a toss to me (an older person) personally whether we stay in or go out, I am not likely to be around long enough to be bothered either way. What I do care about is the future my son will have to cope with. So I'll vote accordingly.
Given the US has the 4th July, what about the 5th July? It would make things easier what with the inter-connected banking system. And 5th July is the anniversary of the 1945 general election.
What's wrong with 23rd June?
Indeed, it's my birthday as well as being very adjacent to the summer Solstice.
Remain relying on 18-24 year olds in full time education. Lol. Their turnout will be 55℅ at best.
I do wonder about the reliability of turnout figures for this age group. Remember that most students can be registered to vote in 2 places but can only vote in 1, which caps the turnout for them at 50%.
Since this is a national election does it matter where people are registered?
Yes if they are registered twice, because it will bring the aggregate turnout down. In the case of students who are registered at home and at college they will have a maximum turnout of 50% even if they all vote. Probably doesn't make a big difference overall but could be a significant factor in why official turnout stats have such low figures amongst 18-24s.
But vote will still count if they are registered in one area and vote in another? Surely it should?
'Since this is a national election does it matter where people are registered?
Yes, if they are registered at Uni & are now back home.
It's also one reason why Oxford and Cambridge (and Edinburgh to an extent) need careful consideration before you back them as the 'most remain' voting areas.
Strange couple of threads - mass panic among Leavers for no obvious reason except the markets, and that could be profit-taking or false rumours or who knows what. The weekend polls did suggest that Remain was catching up, but overcoming the undoubtedly less favouralbe postasl votes must be a challenge.
I replied in the last thread about Remain GOTV work - lots in London, not sure about elsewhere. Is there a serious Leave GOTV operation?
Not in Luton, but huge amounts of leafletting. We decided that the lack of historical canvassing data would have made it very difficult to do an effective canvass.
Remain relying on 18-24 year olds in full time education. Lol. Their turnout will be 55℅ at best.
*Anecdote Alert* During the 2010 General Election, my university had a polling station for the roughly 1500 people living on campus. Apparently turnout was around 30%, yes some people may have voted in their home constituency, by post, but I don't suspect the number was particularly great, I only know of two people who did and one them was myself. Maybe the EU Referendum will enthuse a higher turnout, personally I doubt whether students 18-24, will be able to get to 50% turnout.
18-24 year olds have historically had low-turnout, and the old have traditionally had high turnout Good for Leave
ABs and the university educated usually turn up to vote, and those without qualifications or in C2 or DE are less likely to Good for Remain
I think TC has this one right; if the WWC turns up, it's Leave. If they don't, it's Remain.
I don't accept that it is the WWC who are voting in strength for Leave . The WWC I suspect will think about the threat to their jobs and vote Remain . The WNWC , the unemployed and shirkers who expect to receive benefits whilst sitting at home watching horse racing on the TV on the other hand will vote strongly for Leave
You might not accept it, but they are. You may think it irrational, they though should think about threat to their jobs, but most don't appear to care - or they think there's threats to those anyway, so why not express the anger they have toward the EU and the government.
We shall see on Thursday who is right .
I think the WWC have a number of things on their minds, including their jobs. But not quite as you state:
1. they are concerned that immigration has suppressed their wages and will continue to do so 2. they are concerned with losing their jobs - but this could be neutral. Leave could result in immediate job losses, then stabilization if immigration is brought under control. Remain could result in job losses, if immigration is unfettered.
PS I am not positing these as my views, but how the decision could be seen from the WWC perspective.
Given the US has the 4th July, what about the 5th July? It would make things easier what with the inter-connected banking system. And 5th July is the anniversary of the 1945 general election.
What's wrong with 23rd June?
Indeed, it's my birthday as well as being very adjacent to the summer Solstice.
Remain relying on 18-24 year olds in full time education. Lol. Their turnout will be 55℅ at best.
I do wonder about the reliability of turnout figures for this age group. Remember that most students can be registered to vote in 2 places but can only vote in 1, which caps the turnout for them at 50%.
Since this is a national election does it matter where people are registered?
Yes if they are registered twice, because it will bring the aggregate turnout down. In the case of students who are registered at home and at college they will have a maximum turnout of 50% even if they all vote. Probably doesn't make a big difference overall but could be a significant factor in why official turnout stats have such low figures amongst 18-24s.
But vote will still count if they are registered in one area and vote in another? Surely it should?
Yes, but because they are registered in two areas, one area will show a voter (and increase turnout) and the other will show a non-voter (and reduce turnout). The individual will have one vote but the turnout figure will be 1/2 (50%).
''Sitting in Hampstead, and I realise I'm getting a very London-centric view, I'm not sure I agree. It's 29-1 in my office, and I've counted North of 30 Remain posters in my 'hood at the weekend, against zero for Leave.''
Indeed, but ABC1 takes many forms. JohnO has posted how shocked he was at the support for Leave in Elmbridge, which is Britain's taxpayer powerhouse.
I have a feeling when some pollsters think ABC1 they think well paid public sector civil servants - but anyway, we shall see.
I've done several canvassing sessions with Labour In in London - admittedly it's a borough identified as leaning to Remain but the results have been overwhelming - you're looking at more than 70% remain - perhaps 80% assuming the don't knows split 50-50. Leavers are a tiny minority, even in social housing estates.
Other canvassers have reported the contrary. Perhaps punters just tell you what they think you want to hear.
I think it's more a case of where one is canvassing. Canvass Lambeth, and you'll get overwhelming support for Remain.
You would think so - but my (almost certainly not demographically correct) conversations are coming back something like 60% Remain rather than the 85%+ Remain that I was expecting. Quite a few 'Green Leaves' type voters as well as a long-term Kate Hoey / Old Labour voters that are following her lead and going 'Leave'.
£70k now wanting lay Remain at around 1/3, anybody confident either way is a mug. One slip up or unexpected event between now and thursday will seal it. The dreadful murder last week hasn't changed a thing, a howler tomorrow night might do.
Remain relying on 18-24 year olds in full time education. Lol. Their turnout will be 55℅ at best.
I do wonder about the reliability of turnout figures for this age group. Remember that most students can be registered to vote in 2 places but can only vote in 1, which caps the turnout for them at 50%.
Since this is a national election does it matter where people are registered?
Yes if they are registered twice, because it will bring the aggregate turnout down. In the case of students who are registered at home and at college they will have a maximum turnout of 50% even if they all vote. Probably doesn't make a big difference overall but could be a significant factor in why official turnout stats have such low figures amongst 18-24s.
Does anyone check that they dont vote twice?
I asked this question about a week ago and the consensus was no. Makes you think, doesn't it?
Ironically, I read the document on the VAT proposal last night while discussing the EU with a friend online (I know, I'm a bit sad).
It does strike me that it actually said nearly the opposite of what Vote Leave are claiming - that the EU propose making VAT exclusions and zero rating more flexible, and suggest either making it easier and swifter to update the list of exclusions and zero rating, or getting rid of the entire list and letting Member States largely do exclusions and zero ratings as they see fit.
To be fair, the earlier Remain bombshell had a large amount of bullshit in it (exaggeration of actual claims and taking worst cases, plus comparing between two alternative rates of increase), but this one is actually diametrically opposed to what it's based on.
Sadly, I'm confident very few will bother to check either.
The EU takes a percentage of all VAT receipts as part of its funding settlement. With the current and deepening funding crisis in the EU there is no way they are going to allow any reduction in the amount of money they get from this source. Certainly they cannot let member states set the minimum rates and exclusions.
If I'm having my brain operated on, absolutely, I would far prefer to have a qualified brain surgeon doing the job than a bus driver.
If I ask the brain surgeon or the bus driver for his opinion on political matters, there's no reason why I should assume that one is better qualified to answer than the other.
Remain relying on 18-24 year olds in full time education. Lol. Their turnout will be 55℅ at best.
*Anecdote Alert* During the 2010 General Election, my university had a polling station for the roughly 1500 people living on campus. Apparently turnout was around 30%, yes some people may have voted in their home constituency, by post, but I don't suspect the number was particularly great, I only know of two people who did and one them was myself. Maybe the EU Referendum will enthuse a higher turnout, personally I doubt whether students 18-24, will be able to get to 50% turnout.
18-24 year olds have historically had low-turnout, and the old have traditionally had high turnout Good for Leave
ABs and the university educated usually turn up to vote, and those without qualifications or in C2 or DE are less likely to Good for Remain
I think TC has this one right; if the WWC turns up, it's Leave. If they don't, it's Remain.
I don't accept that it is the WWC who are voting in strength for Leave . The WWC I suspect will think about the threat to their jobs and vote Remain . The WNWC , the unemployed and shirkers who expect to receive benefits whilst sitting at home watching horse racing on the TV on the other hand will vote strongly for Leave
You might not accept it, but they are. You may think it irrational, they though should think about threat to their jobs, but most don't appear to care - or they think there's threats to those anyway, so why not express the anger they have toward the EU and the government.
We shall see on Thursday who is right .
We shall indeed.
Selfishly of course a remain vote would be OK - it means I can vote my conscience without worry.
'Since this is a national election does it matter where people are registered?
Yes, if they are registered at Uni & are now back home.
It's also one reason why Oxford and Cambridge (and Edinburgh to an extent) need careful consideration before you back them as the 'most remain' voting areas.
Believe me students or not Oxford is a sea of remain posters.
'Since this is a national election does it matter where people are registered?
Yes, if they are registered at Uni & are now back home.
It's also one reason why Oxford and Cambridge (and Edinburgh to an extent) need careful consideration before you back them as the 'most remain' voting areas.
Believe me students or not Oxford is a sea of remain posters.
That's because they left them up before they went home! Seriously, the campus up here (Lancaster) is very quiet and almost no posters.
'Since this is a national election does it matter where people are registered?
Yes, if they are registered at Uni & are now back home.
It's also one reason why Oxford and Cambridge (and Edinburgh to an extent) need careful consideration before you back them as the 'most remain' voting areas.
Believe me students or not Oxford is a sea of remain posters.
So was Tessa Munt's constituency last year. Fat lot of good it did her.
Given the US has the 4th July, what about the 5th July? It would make things easier what with the inter-connected banking system. And 5th July is the anniversary of the 1945 general election.
What's wrong with 23rd June?
Indeed, it's my birthday as well as being very adjacent to the summer Solstice.
Today is the Solstice (leap year)!
Stonehenge at the Solstice is still on my bucket list - but not much point if it is too cloudy to se the sunrise. Maybe next year.
One of the few places you'll see a weirder collection of individuals than pb.com....
If I'm having my brain operated on, absolutely, I would far prefer to have a qualified brain surgeon doing the job than a bus driver.
If I ask the brain surgeon or the bus driver for his opinion on political matters, there's no reason why I should assume that one is better qualified to answer than the other.
It's quite amusing.
You use experts for their in depth knowledge of a limited subject.
A referendum is a generalist matter which covers a wide range of issues.
Over reliance on experts simply says youve not understood the exercise
Strange couple of threads - mass panic among Leavers for no obvious reason except the markets, and that could be profit-taking or false rumours or who knows what. The weekend polls did suggest that Remain was catching up, but overcoming the undoubtedly less favouralbe postasl votes must be a challenge.
I replied in the last thread about Remain GOTV work - lots in London, not sure about elsewhere. Is there a serious Leave GOTV operation?
Strange couple of threads - mass panic among Leavers for no obvious reason except the markets, and that could be profit-taking or false rumours or who knows what. The weekend polls did suggest that Remain was catching up, but overcoming the undoubtedly less favouralbe postasl votes must be a challenge.
I replied in the last thread about Remain GOTV work - lots in London, not sure about elsewhere. Is there a serious Leave GOTV operation?
Not sure I agree about the postals. Foreign resident Brits and students do not a brexit make.
So, putting it simply, the people most likely to swing a leave vote are those who currently contribute the least, and those who will have to live with the consequences for the shortest amount of time.
Ain't democracy grand.
On the other hand, young people tend to be foolish and thus it's only for the good that their decisions are somewhat diluted by older and wiser heads!
I've got three degrees and I'm voting Leave. I acknowledge that I am unusual...
I have one degree and I am voting Leave - or at least I would if my wife weren't supporting remain and is out of the country with no proxy vote - the things you do for marital harmony. Anyone have Zero or Minus one degree?
Since this seems to be the habit today... I also have a degree and have spent most of my life working overseas both inside and outside the EU.
And of course I am voting Leave.
The degree/non degree split is a red herring really. Certainly in terms of looking at what sort of people vote Leave or Remain. It stems from the fact that until the mid to late 90s not that many people actually went to university. I went in the early/mid 80s and at the time the rate of school leavers going on to higher education was les than 5%. It is now 50%.
Given that the young are far more Europhile than those of my age and older it is hardly surprising that we see more university educated voting for Remain. It is a simple function of age.
What would be genuinely interesting would be to see the Remain/Leave split amongst those with degrees who are over the age of 50.
If I'm having my brain operated on, absolutely, I would far prefer to have a qualified brain surgeon doing the job than a bus driver.
If I ask the brain surgeon or the bus driver for his opinion on political matters, there's no reason why I should assume that one is better qualified to answer than the other.
It's quite amusing.
You use experts for their in depth knowledge of a limited subject.
A referendum is a generalist matter which covers a wide range of issues.
Over reliance on experts simply says youve not understood the exercise
Particularly when they use their expertise to support the case for their desired political outcome.
Remain relying on 18-24 year olds in full time education. Lol. Their turnout will be 55℅ at best.
I do wonder about the reliability of turnout figures for this age group. Remember that most students can be registered to vote in 2 places but can only vote in 1, which caps the turnout for them at 50%.
Since this is a national election does it matter where people are registered?
Yes if they are registered twice, because it will bring the aggregate turnout down. In the case of students who are registered at home and at college they will have a maximum turnout of 50% even if they all vote. Probably doesn't make a big difference overall but could be a significant factor in why official turnout stats have such low figures amongst 18-24s.
Does anyone check that they dont vote twice?
I asked this question about a week ago and the consensus was no. Makes you think, doesn't it?
Very few will be able bothered to vote at Warwick uni then again in the home counties. Calm down.
Given the US has the 4th July, what about the 5th July? It would make things easier what with the inter-connected banking system. And 5th July is the anniversary of the 1945 general election.
What's wrong with 23rd June?
Indeed, it's my birthday as well as being very adjacent to the summer Solstice.
Today is the Solstice (leap year)!
Stonehenge at the Solstice is still on my bucket list - but not much point if it is too cloudy to se the sunrise. Maybe next year.
One of the few places you'll see a weirder collection of individuals than pb.com....
I suspect that a lot of both our politicians and posters here would get uncomfortably high marks in one of those DIY aspergers/autism tests.
So, putting it simply, the people most likely to swing a leave vote are those who currently contribute the least, and those who will have to live with the consequences for the shortest amount of time.
Ain't democracy grand.
On the other hand, young people tend to be foolish and thus it's only for the good that their decisions are somewhat diluted by older and wiser heads!
I've got three degrees and I'm voting Leave. I acknowledge that I am unusual...
I have one degree and I am voting Leave - or at least I would if my wife weren't supporting remain and is out of the country with no proxy vote - the things you do for marital harmony. Anyone have Zero or Minus one degree?
Since this seems to be the habit today... I also have a degree and have spent most of my life working overseas both inside and outside the EU.
And of course I am voting Leave.
The degree/non degree split is a red herring really. Certainly in terms of looking at what sort of people vote Leave or Remain. It stems from the fact that until the mid to late 90s not that many people actually went to university. I went in the early/mid 80s and at the time the rate of school leavers going on to higher education was les than 5%. It is now 50%.
Given that the young are far more Europhile than those of my age and older it is hardly surprising that we see more university educated voting for Remain. It is a simple function of age.
What would be genuinely interesting would be to see the Remain/Leave split amongst those with degrees who are over the age of 50.
Richard did you see my response to you on both threads earlier?
'Since this is a national election does it matter where people are registered?
Yes, if they are registered at Uni & are now back home.
So they wont be able to have their say? What a shame lol.
Nice to see that you are happy to see people being disenfranchised.
Still, I suppose it's a step up from the other day when you were encouraging RochdalePioneers to miscount Remain votes in his role as an official counter.
So, putting it simply, the people most likely to swing a leave vote are those who currently contribute the least, and those who will have to live with the consequences for the shortest amount of time.
Ain't democracy grand.
On the other hand, young people tend to be foolish and thus it's only for the good that their decisions are somewhat diluted by older and wiser heads!
I've got three degrees and I'm voting Leave. I acknowledge that I am unusual...
I have one degree and I am voting Leave - or at least I would if my wife weren't supporting remain and is out of the country with no proxy vote - the things you do for marital harmony. Anyone have Zero or Minus one degree?
Since this seems to be the habit today... I also have a degree and have spent most of my life working overseas both inside and outside the EU.
And of course I am voting Leave.
The degree/non degree split is a red herring really. Certainly in terms of looking at what sort of people vote Leave or Remain. It stems from the fact that until the mid to late 90s not that many people actually went to university. I went in the early/mid 80s and at the time the rate of school leavers going on to higher education was les than 5%. It is now 50%.
Given that the young are far more Europhile than those of my age and older it is hardly surprising that we see more university educated voting for Remain. It is a simple function of age.
What would be genuinely interesting would be to see the Remain/Leave split amongst those with degrees who are over the age of 50.
In all likelihood, most retired professional people took their qualifications while working as trainees, rather than going to university.
If I'm having my brain operated on, absolutely, I would far prefer to have a qualified brain surgeon doing the job than a bus driver.
If I ask the brain surgeon or the bus driver for his opinion on political matters, there's no reason why I should assume that one is better qualified to answer than the other.
It's quite amusing.
You use experts for their in depth knowledge of a limited subject.
A referendum is a generalist matter which covers a wide range of issues.
Over reliance on experts simply says youve not understood the exercise
Particularly when they use their expertise to support the case for their desired political outcome.
The funniest thing Ive seen today was an interview on BBC Breakfast where the young lady representing Remain look positively affronted that people could quite happily consign the experts advice to the bin.
Poor dear maybe when she gets older she'll understand.
Somebody suggested earlier that the move to Remain was the result of private polling by financial institutions. They've swung back slightly which disproves that point. If Remain were confident, having been 20 points clear at one stage they'd be 1.10 on betfair. Its just trading and arbing now by shrewdies, punters and politicos are pinstickers, nothing more.
Nigel Farage and his motley crew don’t speak for everyone in the Leave campaign and I feel sorry for the good and decent and intelligent and downright nice people who are on that side of the dispute but who do not much care for Farage and his game. But these are the people you lie with and that, in the end, is a choice.
What’s more, it’s hard to disassociate yourselves from Farageist excess when the official campaign prattles on about how Turkey is going to be joining the EU. And, nudge-nudge, wink-wink, you know what that means, don’t you? Of course you do. There’s a spectrum and if Farage and Arron Banks are at one end of it, there are plenty of other, more ostensibly respectable, people who are closer to Farage than they are to the centre. That’s a choice too.
It's Sadiq Khan, Frances O'Grady and Ruth Davidson[sp] for Remain.
Assume that was aimed at me. Thanks, Mr Dancer. So a completely new Remain attack, defence and goalie? From that I guess we can adduce that it wasn't just Ms Eagles who thought the first leg was a "f*cking disaster"?
Ironically, I read the document on the VAT proposal last night while discussing the EU with a friend online (I know, I'm a bit sad).
It does strike me that it actually said nearly the opposite of what Vote Leave are claiming - that the EU propose making VAT exclusions and zero rating more flexible, and suggest either making it easier and swifter to update the list of exclusions and zero rating, or getting rid of the entire list and letting Member States largely do exclusions and zero ratings as they see fit.
To be fair, the earlier Remain bombshell had a large amount of bullshit in it (exaggeration of actual claims and taking worst cases, plus comparing between two alternative rates of increase), but this one is actually diametrically opposed to what it's based on.
Sadly, I'm confident very few will bother to check either.
The EU takes a percentage of all VAT receipts as part of its funding settlement. With the current and deepening funding crisis in the EU there is no way they are going to allow any reduction in the amount of money they get from this source. Certainly they cannot let member states set the minimum rates and exclusions.
I was fairly surprised they'd put it in even as an option. I'd expect the first option to be followed, but even that would be a welcome increase in flexibility. There's certainly no explicit proposal to do away with zero rating.
Not to mention that doing so would send the vast majority of the increased tax revenues to the Government, allowing the Government to do whatever they wanted with it (cut the deficit, cut other taxes, increase public spending). That latter point, though, is well within the "standard" mendacity levels of both sides.
Nigel Farage and his motley crew don’t speak for everyone in the Leave campaign and I feel sorry for the good and decent and intelligent and downright nice people who are on that side of the dispute but who do not much care for Farage and his game. But these are the people you lie with and that, in the end, is a choice.
What’s more, it’s hard to disassociate yourselves from Farageist excess when the official campaign prattles on about how Turkey is going to be joining the EU. And, nudge-nudge, wink-wink, you know what that means, don’t you? Of course you do. There’s a spectrum and if Farage and Arron Banks are at one end of it, there are plenty of other, more ostensibly respectable, people who are closer to Farage than they are to the centre. That’s a choice too.
Nigel Farage and his motley crew don’t speak for everyone in the Leave campaign and I feel sorry for the good and decent and intelligent and downright nice people who are on that side of the dispute but who do not much care for Farage and his game. But these are the people you lie with and that, in the end, is a choice.
What’s more, it’s hard to disassociate yourselves from Farageist excess when the official campaign prattles on about how Turkey is going to be joining the EU. And, nudge-nudge, wink-wink, you know what that means, don’t you? Of course you do. There’s a spectrum and if Farage and Arron Banks are at one end of it, there are plenty of other, more ostensibly respectable, people who are closer to Farage than they are to the centre. That’s a choice too.
'Since this is a national election does it matter where people are registered?
Yes, if they are registered at Uni & are now back home.
So they wont be able to have their say? What a shame lol.
Nice to see that you are happy to see people being disenfranchised.
Still, I suppose it's a step up from the other day when you were encouraging RochdalePioneers to miscount Remain votes in his role as an official counter.
That was a joke, calm down. What is wrong with the people on this site. Jheez.
Somebody suggested earlier that the move to Remain was the result of private polling by financial institutions. They've swung back slightly which disproves that point. If Remain were confident, having been 20 points clear at one stage they'd be 1.10 on betfair. Its just trading and arbing now by shrewdies, punters and politicos are pinstickers, nothing more.
Mr. Mark, not sure, it may've always been the plan for Remain to have a different team.
As I said earlier, they've got a London Labour mayor, a Scottish Conservative and a trades unionist. O'Grady, the latter, may be most important for trying to get non-London England on Remain's side.
'Since this is a national election does it matter where people are registered?
Yes, if they are registered at Uni & are now back home.
So they wont be able to have their say? What a shame lol.
Nice to see that you are happy to see people being disenfranchised.
Still, I suppose it's a step up from the other day when you were encouraging RochdalePioneers to miscount Remain votes in his role as an official counter.
That was a joke, calm down. What is wrong with the people on this site. Jheez.
Strange couple of threads - mass panic among Leavers for no obvious reason except the markets, and that could be profit-taking or false rumours or who knows what. The weekend polls did suggest that Remain was catching up, but overcoming the undoubtedly less favouralbe postasl votes must be a challenge.
I replied in the last thread about Remain GOTV work - lots in London, not sure about elsewhere. Is there a serious Leave GOTV operation?
Not in Luton, but huge amounts of leafletting. We decided that the lack of historical canvassing data would have made it very difficult to do an effective canvass.
Leave.Eu should share their data with you. Labour In will be crucial for the GOTV remain as the CLP's are allowed to campaign.
Brexit vote must not stop other EU states seeking further integration, says Moscovici
The European Commissioner Pierre Moscovici has said today that the Brexit referendum must not prevent other member states from pursuing further integration.
Speaking at a conference in Germany Mr Moscovici said: "A Brexit would be a loss for Britain and the EU. That's why I hope the British will vote to stay.
"I'm truly convinced, whatever happens on June 23, we have to be proactive.
"It must not prevent the others from going further... We must move on."
Brexit vote must not stop other EU states seeking further integration, says Moscovici
The European Commissioner Pierre Moscovici has said today that the Brexit referendum must not prevent other member states from pursuing further integration.
Speaking at a conference in Germany Mr Moscovici said: "A Brexit would be a loss for Britain and the EU. That's why I hope the British will vote to stay.
"I'm truly convinced, whatever happens on June 23, we have to be proactive.
"It must not prevent the others from going further... We must move on."
No matter what the people tell us ... we will not listen.
Nigel Farage and his motley crew don’t speak for everyone in the Leave campaign and I feel sorry for the good and decent and intelligent and downright nice people who are on that side of the dispute but who do not much care for Farage and his game. But these are the people you lie with and that, in the end, is a choice.
What’s more, it’s hard to disassociate yourselves from Farageist excess when the official campaign prattles on about how Turkey is going to be joining the EU. And, nudge-nudge, wink-wink, you know what that means, don’t you? Of course you do. There’s a spectrum and if Farage and Arron Banks are at one end of it, there are plenty of other, more ostensibly respectable, people who are closer to Farage than they are to the centre. That’s a choice too.
Theres a spectrum in Remain Jezza at one end and Dave at the other.
That really is a pointless post.
If Scott and Paste can't be arsed to give so much as a couple of words on the link he's so kindly provided for us, why dignify it with any thoughts of your own?
Nigel Farage and his motley crew don’t speak for everyone in the Leave campaign and I feel sorry for the good and decent and intelligent and downright nice people who are on that side of the dispute but who do not much care for Farage and his game. But these are the people you lie with and that, in the end, is a choice.
What’s more, it’s hard to disassociate yourselves from Farageist excess when the official campaign prattles on about how Turkey is going to be joining the EU. And, nudge-nudge, wink-wink, you know what that means, don’t you? Of course you do. There’s a spectrum and if Farage and Arron Banks are at one end of it, there are plenty of other, more ostensibly respectable, people who are closer to Farage than they are to the centre. That’s a choice too.
Previously I thought there was some sort of referendum going on, and I was meant to vote for the best option from a binary choice.
Now I learn that it is some kind of meta-election in which I am implicitly endorsing the vilest of whackjobs whose preference in this binary choice happens to match my own, even if their thought processes that led them to this conclusion were orthogonal to my own.
I've changed my mind now - much better to vote with the IRA lot. They've clearly got mine, and Britain's, best interests at heart.
Comments
That would be a remarkably quick analysis of the polling seeing as not even Sunderland will have finished the count by midnight
Osbornites (nasty fokkers ) and human beings.
An open letter to my constituents on why we should Vote Leave on Thursday:
https://t.co/woTi4osEBw
@vote_leave
It does strike me that it actually said nearly the opposite of what Vote Leave are claiming - that the EU propose making VAT exclusions and zero rating more flexible, and suggest either making it easier and swifter to update the list of exclusions and zero rating, or getting rid of the entire list and letting Member States largely do exclusions and zero ratings as they see fit.
To be fair, the earlier Remain bombshell had a large amount of bullshit in it (exaggeration of actual claims and taking worst cases, plus comparing between two alternative rates of increase), but this one is actually diametrically opposed to what it's based on.
Sadly, I'm confident very few will bother to check either.
I am anti-Trump. But the Trumpification of politics, as you put it, has come about not because of him, but because of the serial failures of the expert politicians.
http://www.breitbart.com/london/2016/06/20/shoot-and-stab-nigel-farage-hundreds-of-social-media-messages-urging-attacks-on-ukip-leader-revealed/
I replied in the last thread about Remain GOTV work - lots in London, not sure about elsewhere. Is there a serious Leave GOTV operation?
'Since this is a national election does it matter where people are registered?
Yes, if they are registered at Uni & are now back home.
https://twitter.com/hashtag/CatsAgainstBrexit
1. they are concerned that immigration has suppressed their wages and will continue to do so
2. they are concerned with losing their jobs - but this could be neutral. Leave could result in immediate job losses, then stabilization if immigration is brought under control. Remain could result in job losses, if immigration is unfettered.
PS I am not positing these as my views, but how the decision could be seen from the WWC perspective.
And despite having complete freedom of movement, they never intentionally head off more than about 150 yards from home.
If I'm having my brain operated on, absolutely, I would far prefer to have a qualified brain surgeon doing the job than a bus driver.
If I ask the brain surgeon or the bus driver for his opinion on political matters, there's no reason why I should assume that one is better qualified to answer than the other.
Selfishly of course a remain vote would be OK - it means I can vote my conscience without worry.
One of the few places you'll see a weirder collection of individuals than pb.com....
'I would expect renters to do better out of Brexit than home owners, especially in London.'
Renters & young people struggling to get on the property ladder in London.
You use experts for their in depth knowledge of a limited subject.
A referendum is a generalist matter which covers a wide range of issues.
Over reliance on experts simply says youve not understood the exercise
It would cheer us all up.
And of course I am voting Leave.
The degree/non degree split is a red herring really. Certainly in terms of looking at what sort of people vote Leave or Remain. It stems from the fact that until the mid to late 90s not that many people actually went to university. I went in the early/mid 80s and at the time the rate of school leavers going on to higher education was les than 5%. It is now 50%.
Given that the young are far more Europhile than those of my age and older it is hardly surprising that we see more university educated voting for Remain. It is a simple function of age.
What would be genuinely interesting would be to see the Remain/Leave split amongst those with degrees who are over the age of 50.
ICM had a 6pt lead on the phones and 8pts online last week.
It's Sadiq Khan, Frances O'Grady and Ruth Davidson[sp] for Remain.
Still, I suppose it's a step up from the other day when you were encouraging RochdalePioneers to miscount Remain votes in his role as an official counter.
Poor dear maybe when she gets older she'll understand.
What’s more, it’s hard to disassociate yourselves from Farageist excess when the official campaign prattles on about how Turkey is going to be joining the EU. And, nudge-nudge, wink-wink, you know what that means, don’t you? Of course you do. There’s a spectrum and if Farage and Arron Banks are at one end of it, there are plenty of other, more ostensibly respectable, people who are closer to Farage than they are to the centre. That’s a choice too.
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/06/every-political-generation-low-moment/
Not to mention that doing so would send the vast majority of the increased tax revenues to the Government, allowing the Government to do whatever they wanted with it (cut the deficit, cut other taxes, increase public spending). That latter point, though, is well within the "standard" mendacity levels of both sides.
Theres a spectrum in Remain Jezza at one end and Dave at the other.
That really is a pointless post.
And another of sewage.....
Nothing about the EU, just FarageFarageFarage.
Mr. Mark, not sure, it may've always been the plan for Remain to have a different team.
As I said earlier, they've got a London Labour mayor, a Scottish Conservative and a trades unionist. O'Grady, the latter, may be most important for trying to get non-London England on Remain's side.
https://twitter.com/gerryhassan/status/743151219628183552
Edited extra bit: Mr. P, Farage is part of the broader (but not official) campaign.
Remain has terrorist sympathisers and Tony Blair. There's enough dodginess to spread around.
The European Commissioner Pierre Moscovici has said today that the Brexit referendum must not prevent other member states from pursuing further integration.
Speaking at a conference in Germany Mr Moscovici said: "A Brexit would be a loss for Britain and the EU. That's why I hope the British will vote to stay.
"I'm truly convinced, whatever happens on June 23, we have to be proactive.
"It must not prevent the others from going further... We must move on."
No matter what the people tell us ... we will not listen.
Has to be done. For more...
https://twitter.com/politicalap
Previously I thought there was some sort of referendum going on, and I was meant to vote for the best option from a binary choice.
Now I learn that it is some kind of meta-election in which I am implicitly endorsing the vilest of whackjobs whose preference in this binary choice happens to match my own, even if their thought processes that led them to this conclusion were orthogonal to my own.
I've changed my mind now - much better to vote with the IRA lot. They've clearly got mine, and Britain's, best interests at heart.