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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The referendum: The affluent versus the non-affluent summed
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The referendum: The affluent versus the non-affluent summed up in two Populus polling charts
Populus polling data on the people who are more likely to vote Remain pic.twitter.com/8KjzfawHzP
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Richard hi glad you're on.
Thanks for your link the other day.
Now...
I have read the annex you referred me to and for all the world it looks as though it states that non-members of the banking union ("at least one member of the Council that does not participate in the banking union") who object to the special treatment that the UK is getting from the deal (Section A = Economic Governance, namely eurozone discrimination and banking union), shall not have a veto ("cannot result in a situation which would amount to allowing a Member State a veto").
Added: if it was talking about the United Kingdom in this example, why would it not say "the United Kingdom" as it does elsewhere.
In other words, that annex seems to be aimed at any other non-banking union member of the EU that objects to the deal that the UK has achieved.
Not the other way round.
ie nothing I can see in that Annex contradicts the opt outs and protections achieved in the deal.
I, of course, ANAL.
Ain't democracy grand.
Casino_Royale said:
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I don't know how much more of this I can take.
A handful of bookies are now quoting LEAVE at 3.75 ...... that's quite a way in from 4.75 before lunch. Sounds like there's a lot of guesswork going on.
Nobody's stopping the young from voting. If they choose not to, it's not legitimate to criticise the elderly for opting to exercise their democratic right. Indeed, it's perverse to chastise those participating in democracy.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/20/lets-just-scrap-the-eu-referendum-and-let-the-bankers-decide-wha/
Those who aren't well off can get worse off.......
I've got three degrees and I'm voting Leave. I acknowledge that I am unsual...
For some strange reason, my brain filled it in as "wars".
Don't give them any ideas!
Yup
A cancelled meeting (well, there's a surprise) as most of the men want to leave early and make sure they are in good time for the football tonight.
Thumbing through some of the afternoon posts, I'm left with the view REMAIN are playing the psychological card at this late hour. Once again, the self-interested prophets of doom are out and about telling us how the world will end if we have the affront to vote LEAVE on Thursday.
Everything is now being done to de-motivate the LEAVE vote before Thursday whether it be more warnings of disaster or simply the sneering and jeering of those wedded to either the current leadership of the Conservative Party or wedded to the fear of an alternative leadership team ?
As I'm not a Conservative, I don't care. The Sun is shining and I'm voting LEAVE on Thursday.
As someone might have said "It's a new dawn, it's a new day, it's a new start for the UK....and we're feeling good".
Football tonight - depends which England turns up and to a large extent which Slovakia. hey could frustrate us out of this but an early England goal will calm nerves and force them to come to us. If we win Group B, we'll know our next opponents by the end of tomorrow and we play Saturday late afternoon. If we are runners up, we could have to play Portugal or perhaps Iceland but we wouldn't know that for some while and the game would be next Monday evening.
When my grandfather died they had a session of tributes in each of the Commons and the Lords. It was incredibly moving hearing from those who had both opposed and supported him over the years.
That'd set the cat among the pigeons.
Good for Leave
ABs and the university educated usually turn up to vote, and those without qualifications or in C2 or DE are less likely to
Good for Remain
I think TC has this one right; if the WWC turns up, it's Leave. If they don't, it's Remain.
And that's what is being admitted to her face!
Toodles!
It's very anecdotal, but I don;t think remain has ABC1 anywhere near as in the bag as they think they have. And that will be the real shock of the campaign.
'LEAVE's continued #ProjectFear response to expert views it doesn't like is losing its potency and making people like Gove look silly'
The same silly billies that told us we would lose 3 million jobs if we didn't join the Euro ?.
Instead, I will be a selfish old git.
Ideal targets for conditioning.
Leave's are those with the greatest experience of the EU, both in terms of timescale and personal impact.
I'd vote for any political party that offered to cut it back to two: New Year's day and one in the summer.
I would be shocked if Camden was less than 80:20 for Remain, especially given that even SeanT seems to have got the collywobbles.
That's why Gove looks silly
Not.
New EU rules on tax could cost each household over £2,600 ─► https://t.co/sVfUAQi1bE
#VoteLeave https://t.co/LG33aHaHXU
When do the Uni's break up for summer?
EDIT: I thought they had - seems Mr LLama agrees.
Anyway - more important than the footy is the euro 2016 bridge tournament http://www.eurobridge.org/repository/competitions/16budapest/microsite/RunningScores/Asp/RoundTeamsConditStatClassicMod.asp?qtournid=1210&qshowflag=1 England trouncing Scotland.
So a post-graduate-educated 30-year-old Scot, in full time employment in category AB, renting his or her own home privately who went abroad on a summer holiday is damn near certain to be a Remainer, I guess.
I think it would be useful if they could group these findings in categories (and thus exclusively, so doing it by age, and so forth - doing it by as many as three categories simultaneously would probably be the maximum (eg age/location/socio-economic status would, if each category is exclusive (Age 35-44 in London, C1) be something like 6 x 4 x 10 categories - about as large as plausible, if not larger); if these could have cohort sizing made available as well, it'd be great.
EDITED TO ADD: must be tough for the likes of you, Richard, Max - even on something you are desperate to win (and recognise will be an uphill struggle to), there is no conceivable path to winning on your own terms. Must be like a Maoist reluctantly voting for the Labour devationists.
Indeed, but ABC1 takes many forms. JohnO has posted how shocked he was at the support for Leave in Elmbridge, which is Britain's taxpayer powerhouse.
I have a feeling when some pollsters think ABC1 they think well paid public sector civil servants - but anyway, we shall see.
@Breakingviews: Brexit could trigger a liquidity migraine. @swahapattanaik https://t.co/9uZQRipF2D https://t.co/ceHEkFXy5K
Luckily, nobody is listening to them...
My son is doing a conversion course and will definitely vote (Remain). Mind you he actually joined the Liberal Democrats. Hopefully age and real life will teach him wisdom.
I'm intrigued by one item in the Leave diagram, nothing to do with the referendum at all.
The top line @148 is 'No formal education' whilst the line @117 is 'Educated at secondary level'.
Therefore, presumably, 'No formal education' means people who didn't even go to secondary school.
Wikipedia says that the school leaving age was raised to 15 [from 14] in 1947 by the Education Act of 1944.
So does that mean that the whole of the top line is populated by those born before 1932 (74+) plus those who arrived here without education later? Or is there some other wrinkle?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_education_in_England