Can anyone come up with a good reason why, after weeks of all voters giving much worse results for Remain than certain to vote, the complete opposite appears in this ORB poll?
The middle classes are coming out for Remain and they vote, the working classes are coming out for Leave and they are less likely to vote!
And yet is it still old people are coming out for Leave and they vote, the young are coming out for Remain and they are less likely to vote?
It is a clash between the middle class and the young and the old and the working class
Sums it up!
Indeed, we have never had an election like it, normally the Tories have the middle class and the old and Labour the working class and the young. Maybe the 1975 EEC referendum but that was a landslide for Yes. Even in indyref No were more middle class and older, Yes more working class and younger too, will be very interesting
Can anyone come up with a good reason why, after weeks of all voters giving much worse results for Remain than certain to vote, the complete opposite appears in this ORB poll?
I hate to say it because I don't actually think it's very fair, but I think the Jo Cox murder has had an effect, plus the Farage poster (there is polling that it's unpopular) - the combination of the two has put some Remainers into "keep the barbarians out" mode while some leavers may have wondered if they were quite comfortable with the Brexit camp.
And other Leavers may have become "shy"?
This has a 1992 GE feel for me. Everyone saying they'd give Kinnock a chance, until they got into the polling booth and switched.
Ah, so Leave will win then? ;-)
That's what I'm saying. It wasn't cool to be seen to be voting for Major, but people voted in what they perceived to be their best interest. I'm not a Leave shipper, by the way, likely to vote Remain. However, I think the maths stack up for Leave overall.
How many more polls to come in the next 72 hours? Three?
Yougov, Survation and IPSOS-Mori?
As well as those, IG tomorrow and ComRes and TNS on Wednesday.
How come ORB are reporting "certain to vote" figures of Remain 53%, Leave 46%? They don't add up to 100%. Did some people say they were certain to vote a third way? Or were the figures exactly 53.5% and 46.5% and they got rounded down? That's possible, with n=800. Or they made a mistake. Is there a fourth possibility?
Can anyone come up with a good reason why, after weeks of all voters giving much worse results for Remain than certain to vote, the complete opposite appears in this ORB poll?
The middle classes are coming out for Remain and they vote, the working classes are coming out for Leave and they are less likely to vote!
And yet is it still old people are coming out for Leave and they vote, the young are coming out for Remain and they are less likely to vote?
It is a clash between the middle class and the young and the old and the working class
Sums it up!
Indeed, we have never had an election like it, normally the Tories have the middle class and the old and Labour the working class and the young. Even in indyref No were more middle class and older, Yes more working class and younger too, will be very interesting
Middle class and young - Corbyn's Labour Party....
Whatever the result Mr F the referendum has just reinforced my view that there are a large block of people for whom the current political structures provide no representation.
It has all the feel of an ancien regime about to crumble. Certainly on the right there are lots of voters who now wont vote Conservative again. They have to go somewhere, time for a change.
That I think is spot on, Mr. B. Not only former Conservative voters either. Up the road from me is a post war council estate where a year or so back I did some work, on behalf of Mid-Sussex Council, trying to get people to register to vote. "Why should I bother nobody gives a feck about us" was the most common response, and I have to say that they had a point.
For example, at the time I was doing that work the more than adequate street lighting in my cul de sac was being upgraded because it did not comply to some new standard. Yet the street lighting on the Estate was so inadequate that in some parts it did not exist. It still has not been improved.
There are lots and lots of people who feel that the political parties do not represent them, that they are forgotten and do not matter. In such circumstances the "extremist" parties will prosper. I note that no one on here today has mentioned the new Mayoress of Rome.
*Cough*
Where do you live? I live in Mid Sussex....
I know you do, Mr White, I tried to organise a luncheon if you remember? I live in in Hurstpierpoint and the estate I am talking about is Willow Way.
No Need to cough.
Oh, re the potential Sussex PB Lunch, Miss Plato has said she is up for it. Nobody else bothered to reply.
Ah yes.
Willow way.
I am not far away. Still up for a meet up. Could be north of the water.
If you would like to meet, even for just for a coffee or a beer, (and I certainly would like to) then please drop an email at HurstLlama dot gmail dot com.
Whatever the result Mr F the referendum has just reinforced my view that there are a large block of people for whom the current political structures provide no representation.
It has all the feel of an ancien regime about to crumble. Certainly on the right there are lots of voters who now wont vote Conservative again. They have to go somewhere, time for a change.
That I think is spot on, Mr. B. Not only former Conservative voters either. Up the road from me is a post war council estate where a year or so back I did some work, on behalf of Mid-Sussex Council, trying to get people to register to vote. "Why should I bother nobody gives a feck about us" was the most common response, and I have to say that they had a point.
For example, at the time I was doing that work the more than adequate street lighting in my cul de sac was being upgraded because it did not comply to some new standard. Yet the street lighting on the Estate was so inadequate that in some parts it did not exist. It still has not been improved.
There are lots and lots of people who feel that the political parties do not represent them, that they are forgotten and do not matter. In such circumstances the "extremist" parties will prosper. I note that no one on here today has mentioned the new Mayoress of Rome.
*Cough*
Where do you live? I live in Mid Sussex....
I know you do, Mr White, I tried to organise a luncheon if you remember? I live in in Hurstpierpoint and the estate I am talking about is Willow Way.
No Need to cough.
Oh, re the potential Sussex PB Lunch, Miss Plato has said she is up for it. Nobody else bothered to reply.
Ah yes.
Willow way.
I am not far away. Still up for a meet up. Could be north of the water.
If you would like to meet, even for just for a coffee or a beer, (and I certainly would like to) then please drop an email at HurstLlama dot gmail dot com.
If Remain win this will be a huge personal victory for Cameron and to a lesser extent Osborne. He really hasn't had any sensible help from either Labour or the Lib Dems. In fact Labour have been a negative force.
Cameron's is not only the most successful Tory leader since Thatcher he's the most palatable in my life time. If there was an election next week I'd vote for him
That's his problem. Like Blair, opponents like him, as he alienates supporters.
If Remain win this will be a huge personal victory for Cameron and to a lesser extent Osborne. He really hasn't had any sensible help from either Labour or the Lib Dems. In fact Labour have been a negative force.
Cameron's is not only the most successful Tory leader since Thatcher he's the most palatable in my life time. If there was an election next week I'd vote for him
@tnewtondunn: EXCL: David Cameron accuses Michael Gove of “Donald Trump-style” politics for rubbishing experts' EU views; https://t.co/6RtauqshEO
This will be presented as an unacceptable and personal escalation at his old friend, but frankly despite being polite a few days after Gove declared out they were stating each was undermining Security with their favoured option, so it seems tame.
If Remain win this will be a huge personal victory for Cameron and to a lesser extent Osborne. He really hasn't had any sensible help from either Labour or the Lib Dems. In fact Labour have been a negative force.
Cameron's is not only the most successful Tory leader since Thatcher he's the most palatable in my life time. If there was an election next week I'd vote for him
It's extraordinary isn't it Roger. ? I still blame him for creating this mess. Nelson's " The Essay Crisis Prime Minister " sums him up however like a flawed Superhero he seems cable of rescuing his own catastrophes. If he wins on Thursday he'll be the defacto leader of Britain's Left. Which s both extraordinary and appalling but if the Tories avoid electing a nutter to replace him just cements their hegemony. Clegg and Corbyn should be hanged then left to rot for the tourists in the Turbine Hall.
Cameron's is not only the most successful Tory leader since Thatcher he's the most palatable in my life time. If there was an election next week I'd vote for him
Combine this with Tyson's statement Osborne is not so bad, and we see how the world has gone mad in this referendum.
I will say Osborne has put the effort in, and not shied away from this like some other Remainers. Perhaps he had to, perhaps he was wrong to insist he do so, but he's gone for it.
Can anyone come up with a good reason why, after weeks of all voters giving much worse results for Remain than certain to vote, the complete opposite appears in this ORB poll?
I hate to say it because I don't actually think it's very fair, but I think the Jo Cox murder has had an effect, plus the Farage poster (there is polling that it's unpopular) - the combination of the two has put some Remainers into "keep the barbarians out" mode while some leavers may have wondered if they were quite comfortable with the Brexit camp.
And other Leavers may have become "shy"?
This has a 1992 GE feel for me. Everyone saying they'd give Kinnock a chance, until they got into the polling booth and switched.
It didn't quite work like that though did it?
They went into the booth saying they'd vote Labour, voted Conservative in the booth, then came out of the booth saying they had voted Labour....
Cameron's is not only the most successful Tory leader since Thatcher he's the most palatable in my life time. If there was an election next week I'd vote for him
Combine this with Tyson's statement Osborne is not so bad, and we see how the world has gone mad in this referendum.
I will say Osborne has put the effort in, and not shied away from this like some other Remainers. Perhaps he had to, perhaps he was wrong to insist he do so, but he's gone for it.
I will not be voting Tory :-)
The PBTory virus gets all eventually, you'll see...
Cameron's is not only the most successful Tory leader since Thatcher he's the most palatable in my life time. If there was an election next week I'd vote for him
Combine this with Tyson's statement Osborne is not so bad, and we see how the world has gone mad in this referendum.
I will say Osborne has put the effort in, and not shied away from this like some other Remainers. Perhaps he had to, perhaps he was wrong to insist he do so, but he's gone for it.
I will not be voting Tory :-)
The PBTory virus gets all eventually, you'll see...
Can anyone come up with a good reason why, after weeks of all voters giving much worse results for Remain than certain to vote, the complete opposite appears in this ORB poll?
I hate to say it because I don't actually think it's very fair, but I think the Jo Cox murder has had an effect, plus the Farage poster (there is polling that it's unpopular) - the combination of the two has put some Remainers into "keep the barbarians out" mode while some leavers may have wondered if they were quite comfortable with the Brexit camp.
And other Leavers may have become "shy"?
This has a 1992 GE feel for me. Everyone saying they'd give Kinnock a chance, until they got into the polling booth and switched.
It didn't quite work like that though did it?
They went into the booth saying they'd vote Labour, voted Conservative in the booth, then came out of the booth saying they had voted Labour....
Tbf I can see a lot of people not owning up to having voted leave, even after the fact...
If Remain win this will be a huge personal victory for Cameron and to a lesser extent Osborne. He really hasn't had any sensible help from either Labour or the Lib Dems. In fact Labour have been a negative force.
Cameron's is not only the most successful Tory leader since Thatcher he's the most palatable in my life time. If there was an election next week I'd vote for him
If Remain win this will be a huge personal victory for Cameron and to a lesser extent Osborne. He really hasn't had any sensible help from either Labour or the Lib Dems. In fact Labour have been a negative force.
Cameron's is not only the most successful Tory leader since Thatcher he's the most palatable in my life time. If there was an election next week I'd vote for him
That's his problem. Like Blair, opponents like him, as he alienates supporters.
Can anyone come up with a good reason why, after weeks of all voters giving much worse results for Remain than certain to vote, the complete opposite appears in this ORB poll?
I hate to say it because I don't actually think it's very fair, but I think the Jo Cox murder has had an effect, plus the Farage poster (there is polling that it's unpopular) - the combination of the two has put some Remainers into "keep the barbarians out" mode while some leavers may have wondered if they were quite comfortable with the Brexit camp.
And other Leavers may have become "shy"?
This has a 1992 GE feel for me. Everyone saying they'd give Kinnock a chance, until they got into the polling booth and switched.
It didn't quite work like that though did it?
They went into the booth saying they'd vote Labour, voted Conservative in the booth, then came out of the booth saying they had voted Labour....
I remember being completely bewildered on election night. My first ever GE as a voter. Although, I did back Party Politics in the 92 National, so it was the start of something...
Whatever the result Mr F the referendum has just reinforced my view that there are a large block of people for whom the current political structures provide no representation.
It has all the feel of an ancien regime about to crumble. Certainly on the right there are lots of voters who now wont vote Conservative again. They have to go somewhere, time for a change.
That I think is spot on, Mr. B. Not only former Conservative voters either. Up the road from me is a post war council estate where a year or so back I did some work, on behalf of Mid-Sussex Council, trying to get people to register to vote. "Why should I bother nobody gives a feck about us" was the most common response, and I have to say that they had a point.
For example, at the time I was doing that work the more than adequate street lighting in my cul de sac was being upgraded because it did not comply to some new standard. Yet the street lighting on the Estate was so inadequate that in some parts it did not exist. It still has not been improved.
There are lots and lots of people who feel that the political parties do not represent them, that they are forgotten and do not matter. In such circumstances the "extremist" parties will prosper. I note that no one on here today has mentioned the new Mayoress of Rome.
*Cough*
Where do you live? I live in Mid Sussex....
I know you do, Mr White, I tried to organise a luncheon if you remember? I live in in Hurstpierpoint and the estate I am talking about is Willow Way.
No Need to cough.
Oh, re the potential Sussex PB Lunch, Miss Plato has said she is up for it. Nobody else bothered to reply.
Ah yes.
Willow way.
I am not far away. Still up for a meet up. Could be north of the water.
If you would like to meet, even for just for a coffee or a beer, (and I certainly would like to) then please drop an email at HurstLlama dot gmail dot com.
If Remain win this will be a huge personal victory for Cameron and to a lesser extent Osborne. He really hasn't had any sensible help from either Labour or the Lib Dems. In fact Labour have been a negative force.
Cameron's is not only the most successful Tory leader since Thatcher he's the most palatable in my life time. If there was an election next week I'd vote for him
That's his problem. Like Blair, opponents like him, as he alienates supporters.
It's one of the reasons why the main parties all need battle buses and loads of activists they can move around the country. They spend too much of their time p*ssing off their own sides so much that they lose activists.
Also, it's important to note that the YouGov poll was conducted entirely after Thursday.
At least some of the polling (perhaps all?) was for their previous poll too (44-43 for Remain). And tonight's 44-42 for Leave is exactly the same as they got in their poll before that. If I were spinning for Leave, I'd say this shows the swing to Remain in the aftermath of Jo Cox's murder has now been reversed.
So we have ORB (telephone) 2.1% lead for REMAIN (49-47), and YouGov (online) 2.3% lead for LEAVE (44-42).
The only sensible conclusion is that it could go either way.
If Remain win this will be a huge personal victory for Cameron and to a lesser extent Osborne. He really hasn't had any sensible help from either Labour or the Lib Dems. In fact Labour have been a negative force.
Cameron's is not only the most successful Tory leader since Thatcher he's the most palatable in my life time. If there was an election next week I'd vote for him
That's his problem. Like Blair, opponents like him, as he alienates supporters.
Dave is now the very embodiment of the establishment.
He owns the centre-ground.
If his right wing go nuts on Friday, he could play poker, pull the Ariel Sharon/Kadima stunt and probably get away with it.
If Remain win this will be a huge personal victory for Cameron and to a lesser extent Osborne. He really hasn't had any sensible help from either Labour or the Lib Dems. In fact Labour have been a negative force.
Cameron's is not only the most successful Tory leader since Thatcher he's the most palatable in my life time. If there was an election next week I'd vote for him
It's extraordinary isn't it Roger. ? I still blame him for creating this mess. Nelson's " The Essay Crisis Prime Minister " sums him up however like a flawed Superhero he seems cable of rescuing his own catastrophes. If he wins on Thursday he'll be the defacto leader of Britain's Left. Which s both extraordinary and appalling but if the Tories avoid electing a nutter to replace him just cements their hegemony. Clegg and Corbyn should be hanged then left to rot for the tourists in the Turbine Hall.
I would add Farron to the list for hanging. I heard him this morning talking about the referendum for the first time and he was really poor.
And there are people like Penny Mordaunt who've disqualified themselves from holding office.
Ok, I've lost track. Why are we hating her again?
Flat out lie on whether we have a veto on Turkey's membership of EU.
Are you sure she wasn't just mistaken? The quality of debate is so poor, I actually think these people are ill informed. (MPs were certainly clueless over Iraq)
I thought she tweeted that the UK couldn't in practice veto an application from a fellow NATO member rather than that there was no veto legally speaking. At least, that's how I read it.
Can anyone come up with a good reason why, after weeks of all voters giving much worse results for Remain than certain to vote, the complete opposite appears in this ORB poll?
The middle classes are coming out for Remain and they vote, the working classes are coming out for Leave and they are less likely to vote!
And yet is it still old people are coming out for Leave and they vote, the young are coming out for Remain and they are less likely to vote?
It is a clash between the middle class and the young and the old and the working class
Sums it up!
Indeed, we have never had an election like it, normally the Tories have the middle class and the old and Labour the working class and the young. Even in indyref No were more middle class and older, Yes more working class and younger too, will be very interesting
Middle class and young - Corbyn's Labour Party....
Most of the middle class are voting Tory but also Remain
Can anyone come up with a good reason why, after weeks of all voters giving much worse results for Remain than certain to vote, the complete opposite appears in this ORB poll?
I hate to say it because I don't actually think it's very fair, but I think the Jo Cox murder has had an effect, plus the Farage poster (there is polling that it's unpopular) - the combination of the two has put some Remainers into "keep the barbarians out" mode while some leavers may have wondered if they were quite comfortable with the Brexit camp.
And other Leavers may have become "shy"?
This has a 1992 GE feel for me. Everyone saying they'd give Kinnock a chance, until they got into the polling booth and switched.
No it doesn't. Leave voters are far more vocal than Remain, they are more likely to put up a poster, take a leaflet and be passionate in their views, much as Labour voters were in 1992. Remainers are much less likely to advertise their views, as Tories were not in 1992
Can anyone come up with a good reason why, after weeks of all voters giving much worse results for Remain than certain to vote, the complete opposite appears in this ORB poll?
The middle classes are coming out for Remain and they vote, the working classes are coming out for Leave and they are less likely to vote!
And yet is it still old people are coming out for Leave and they vote, the young are coming out for Remain and they are less likely to vote?
It is a clash between the middle class and the young and the old and the working class
Sums it up!
Indeed, we have never had an election like it, normally the Tories have the middle class and the old and Labour the working class and the young. Even in indyref No were more middle class and older, Yes more working class and younger too, will be very interesting
Middle class and young - Corbyn's Labour Party....
Most of the middle class are voting Tory but also Remain
Not all of the middle class vote Labour but all Labour voters are middle class?
Can anyone come up with a good reason why, after weeks of all voters giving much worse results for Remain than certain to vote, the complete opposite appears in this ORB poll?
I hate to say it because I don't actually think it's very fair, but I think the Jo Cox murder has had an effect, plus the Farage poster (there is polling that it's unpopular) - the combination of the two has put some Remainers into "keep the barbarians out" mode while some leavers may have wondered if they were quite comfortable with the Brexit camp.
And other Leavers may have become "shy"?
This has a 1992 GE feel for me. Everyone saying they'd give Kinnock a chance, until they got into the polling booth and switched.
It didn't quite work like that though did it?
They went into the booth saying they'd vote Labour, voted Conservative in the booth, then came out of the booth saying they had voted Labour....
The Tories were the largest party in the 1992 exit poll so that is not quite true
If Remain win this will be a huge personal victory for Cameron and to a lesser extent Osborne. He really hasn't had any sensible help from either Labour or the Lib Dems. In fact Labour have been a negative force.
Cameron's is not only the most successful Tory leader since Thatcher he's the most palatable in my life time. If there was an election next week I'd vote for him
Lol. We'll have find some madeup/misinterpretable quotes from the eighties about Mandela. That'll calm you down.
By the way - "the LibDems"? Who, precisely?
I heard Farron for the first time this morning. Other than that Mrs Clegg
It is always a bit rash to expect non-voters to turnout.
The big change is Remainers firming up, it seems like those Leave leads did much more to damage than help Leave.
Those figures for certainty look like a turnout in the sixties. Generally real voting trails "certainty to vote" so I think the 60-65% band at 7 on Betfair looks good.
Can anyone come up with a good reason why, after weeks of all voters giving much worse results for Remain than certain to vote, the complete opposite appears in this ORB poll?
The middle classes are coming out for Remain and they vote, the working classes are coming out for Leave and they are less likely to vote!
And yet is it still old people are coming out for Leave and they vote, the young are coming out for Remain and they are less likely to vote?
It is a clash between the middle class and the young and the old and the working class
Sums it up!
Indeed, we have never had an election like it, normally the Tories have the middle class and the old and Labour the working class and the young. Even in indyref No were more middle class and older, Yes more working class and younger too, will be very interesting
Middle class and young - Corbyn's Labour Party....
Most of the middle class are voting Tory but also Remain
Not all of the middle class vote Labour but all Labour voters are middle class?
Here is where I seem like a complete idiot come Friday - but it is what I am thinking.
I suspect the effect of the Jo Cox events will probably mean a Leave vote, really for five reasons:
1. The voice of those who believe that a Brexit vote is a vote for Racism has suddenly become much louder - and that will alienate a lot of WWC voters who have been told for God knows how long that to complain about anything immigration-related was racism. That "Brexit is racism" voice had managed to keep itself relatively muted but feels like it has been given full flow by what has happened. That, in turn, is likely to make many more WWC come out to vote (and I think it will impact the phone polls - I would like to see the Lab splits for Remain / Leave on the ORB poll; if there is a high Remain vote, I would point to Shy Leavers).
2. It has taken a lot of the attention away from the economic side - one thing I found working to convince potential Leavers to waiver was the impact on the economy / personal finances. But the news has now been dominated by the impact of the murder and that has switched attention from the economy / business side.
3. The markets have rallied which has also taken away some of the fear factor on the economy side - the best thing for Remain would have been the FTSE and sterling falling into the run up to the vote. Instead, we have both rising and it is always harder to persuade people of the negative impact when you have rising markets.
4. It has put the focus back on immigration - people will have their own view on Farage, but the discussion about immigration has been given more fuel by what has happened and the poster. As someone earlier said, Farage knows what he is doing with that image, it is to get out his core vote.
5. Pure anecdotally, but I am getting a lot of feedback from friends who range across the spectrum that they have found the whole remembrance thing pretty low politicking. To give two (of a number of) anecdotes: our left-wing, pro-Remain neighbour said he found it despicable that the murder was used for political purposes when the body was barely cold and a colleague at work who was Leave and then wavering is now back to Leave because of what he sees as manufactured outrage. I suspect this view is more common than admitted.
It will be 1. though that will really be the decider - I think many of the votes in the North, Wales etc are really going to shock Remain.
PS: one anecdote from London - we drove through Holland Park, South Ken and Chelsea area on Sunday - 8 Leave posters, 2 Remain (both Earls Court). Oh, and I saw my first Leave poster in Hampstead
Here is where I seem like a complete idiot come Friday - but it is what I am thinking.
I suspect the effect of the Jo Cox events will probably mean a Leave vote, really for five reasons:
1. The voice of those who believe that a Brexit vote is a vote for Racism has suddenly become much louder - and that will alienate a lot of WWC voters who have been told for God knows how long that to complain about anything immigration-related was racism. That "Brexit is racism" voice had managed to keep itself relatively muted but feels like it has been given full flow by what has happened. That, in turn, is likely to make many more WWC come out to vote (and I think it will impact the phone polls - I would like to see the Lab splits for Remain / Leave on the ORB poll; if there is a high Remain vote, I would point to Shy Leavers).
2. It has taken a lot of the attention away from the economic side - one thing I found working to convince potential Leavers to waiver was the impact on the economy / personal finances. But the news has now been dominated by the impact of the murder and that has switched attention from the economy / business side.
3. The markets have rallied which has also taken away some of the fear factor on the economy side - the best thing for Remain would have been the FTSE and sterling falling into the run up to the vote. Instead, we have both rising and it is always harder to persuade people of the negative impact when you have rising markets.
4. It has put the focus back on immigration - people will have their own view on Farage, but the discussion about immigration has been given more fuel by what has happened and the poster. As someone earlier said, Farage knows what he is doing with that image, it is to get out his core vote.
5. Pure anecdotally, but I am getting a lot of feedback from friends who range across the spectrum that they have found the whole remembrance thing pretty low politicking. To give two (of a number of) anecdotes: our left-wing, pro-Remain neighbour said he found it despicable that the murder was used for political purposes when the body was barely cold and a colleague at work who was Leave and then wavering is now back to Leave because of what he sees as manufactured outrage. I suspect this view is more common than admitted.
It will be 1. though that will really be the decider - I think many of the votes in the North, Wales etc are really going to shock Remain.
PS: one anecdote from London - we drove through Holland Park, South Ken and Chelsea area on Sunday - 8 Leave posters, 2 Remain (both Earls Court). Oh, and I saw my first Leave poster in Hampstead
Very good post. You are right: the wwc is the dark horse. Poll subsamples showing Labour voters 70/30 REMAIN just don't ring true. The wwc is nothing like that and I wonder if the polls have just not picked them up.
Here is where I seem like a complete idiot come Friday - but it is what I am thinking.
I suspect the effect of the Jo Cox events will probably mean a Leave vote, really for five reasons:
1. The voice of those who believe that a Brexit vote is a vote for Racism has suddenly become much louder - and that will alienate a lot of WWC voters who have been told for God knows how long that to complain about anything immigration-related was racism. That "Brexit is racism" voice had managed to keep itself relatively muted but feels like it has been given full flow by what has happened. That, in turn, is likely to make many more WWC come out to vote (and I think it will impact the phone polls - I would like to see the Lab splits for Remain / Leave on the ORB poll; if there is a high Remain vote, I would point to Shy Leavers).
2. It has taken a lot of the attention away from the economic side - one thing I found working to convince potential Leavers to waiver was the impact on the economy / personal finances. But the news has now been dominated by the impact of the murder and that has switched at
5. Pure anecdotally, but I am getting a lot of feedback from friends who range across the spectrum that they have found the whole remembrance thing pretty low politicking. To give two (of a number of) anecdotes: our left-wing, pro-Remain neighbour said he found it despicable that the murder was used for political purposes when the body was barely cold and a colleague at work who was Leave and then wavering is now back to Leave because of what he sees as manufactured outrage. I suspect this view is more common than admitted.
It will be 1. though that will really be the decider - I think many of the votes in the North, Wales etc are really going to shock Remain.
PS: one anecdote from London - we drove through Holland Park, South Ken and Chelsea area on Sunday - 8 Leave posters, 2 Remain (both Earls Court). Oh, and I saw my first Leave poster in Hampstead
Very good post. You are right: the wwc is the dark horse. Poll subsamples showing Labour voters 70/30 REMAIN just don't ring true. The wwc is nothing like that and I wonder if the polls have just not picked them up.
The polls do show the wwc comfortably voting Leave, just the Labour vote no longer automatically represents the wwc with many having defected to UKIP
Just had a chat with a mate in Burnley, Lancashire. He reports that the town is full of Leave posters, with the only remain ones being in Labour councillors' windows. It seems that the Asians are now coming over to Leave, with maybe the backing of their political machines. If this is the case, then the other mill towns will be doing the same - white and Asian voting together for Leave.
Comments
Even simpler. Newspaper editors *shakes head*
https://twitter.com/KathViner/status/745003954891792384
REVEALED: Brussels GB Embassy playlist for #Brexit night bash @EurActiv https://t.co/l05JR36dR1 What's missing? The Who's 'Free me'?
George Soros warns devaluation would be more disruptive than when UK dropped out of Exchange Rate Mechanism in 1992
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/jun/20/brexit-would-trigger-sterling-fall-worse-than-black-wednesday?CMP=share_btn_tw
https://twitter.com/hulswood/status/744988955439947776
They went into the booth saying they'd vote Labour, voted Conservative in the booth, then came out of the booth saying they had voted Labour....
Man arrested at Trump rally in Las Vegas said he tried to grab officer's gun to kill Trump. https://t.co/h9BG74Eyj2 https://t.co/Uu8YMqtgLz
Sod that.
So we have ORB (telephone) 2.1% lead for REMAIN (49-47), and YouGov (online) 2.3% lead for LEAVE (44-42).
The only sensible conclusion is that it could go either way.
He owns the centre-ground.
If his right wing go nuts on Friday, he could play poker, pull the Ariel Sharon/Kadima stunt and probably get away with it.
He must be at least a little bit tempted...
It is always a bit rash to expect non-voters to turnout.
NEW THREAD NEW THREAD
I suspect the effect of the Jo Cox events will probably mean a Leave vote, really for five reasons:
1. The voice of those who believe that a Brexit vote is a vote for Racism has suddenly become much louder - and that will alienate a lot of WWC voters who have been told for God knows how long that to complain about anything immigration-related was racism. That "Brexit is racism" voice had managed to keep itself relatively muted but feels like it has been given full flow by what has happened. That, in turn, is likely to make many more WWC come out to vote (and I think it will impact the phone polls - I would like to see the Lab splits for Remain / Leave on the ORB poll; if there is a high Remain vote, I would point to Shy Leavers).
2. It has taken a lot of the attention away from the economic side - one thing I found working to convince potential Leavers to waiver was the impact on the economy / personal finances. But the news has now been dominated by the impact of the murder and that has switched attention from the economy / business side.
3. The markets have rallied which has also taken away some of the fear factor on the economy side - the best thing for Remain would have been the FTSE and sterling falling into the run up to the vote. Instead, we have both rising and it is always harder to persuade people of the negative impact when you have rising markets.
4. It has put the focus back on immigration - people will have their own view on Farage, but the discussion about immigration has been given more fuel by what has happened and the poster. As someone earlier said, Farage knows what he is doing with that image, it is to get out his core vote.
5. Pure anecdotally, but I am getting a lot of feedback from friends who range across the spectrum that they have found the whole remembrance thing pretty low politicking. To give two (of a number of) anecdotes: our left-wing, pro-Remain neighbour said he found it despicable that the murder was used for political purposes when the body was barely cold and a colleague at work who was Leave and then wavering is now back to Leave because of what he sees as manufactured outrage. I suspect this view is more common than admitted.
It will be 1. though that will really be the decider - I think many of the votes in the North, Wales etc are really going to shock Remain.
PS: one anecdote from London - we drove through Holland Park, South Ken and Chelsea area on Sunday - 8 Leave posters, 2 Remain (both Earls Court). Oh, and I saw my first Leave poster in Hampstead