If I'm having my brain operated on, absolutely, I would far prefer to have a qualified brain surgeon doing the job than a bus driver.
If I ask the brain surgeon or the bus driver for his opinion on political matters, there's no reason why I should assume that one is better qualified to answer than the other.
It's quite amusing.
You use experts for their in depth knowledge of a limited subject.
A referendum is a generalist matter which covers a wide range of issues.
Over reliance on experts simply says youve not understood the exercise
Particularly when they use their expertise to support the case for their desired political outcome.
The funniest thing Ive seen today was an interview on BBC Breakfast where the young lady representing Remain look positively affronted that people could quite happily consign the experts advice to the bin.
Poor dear maybe when she gets older she'll understand.
Afternoon, Mr. Brooke, it is to be hoped that she will come to understand that the role of expert is, in politics and business at least, to promote the cause of the people that are paying them.
Somebody suggested earlier that the move to Remain was the result of private polling by financial institutions. They've swung back slightly which disproves that point. If Remain were confident, having been 20 points clear at one stage they'd be 1.10 on betfair. Its just trading and arbing now by shrewdies, punters and politicos are pinstickers, nothing more.
Nigel Farage and his motley crew don’t speak for everyone in the Leave campaign and I feel sorry for the good and decent and intelligent and downright nice people who are on that side of the dispute but who do not much care for Farage and his game. But these are the people you lie with and that, in the end, is a choice.
What’s more, it’s hard to disassociate yourselves from Farageist excess when the official campaign prattles on about how Turkey is going to be joining the EU. And, nudge-nudge, wink-wink, you know what that means, don’t you? Of course you do. There’s a spectrum and if Farage and Arron Banks are at one end of it, there are plenty of other, more ostensibly respectable, people who are closer to Farage than they are to the centre. That’s a choice too.
We have £19.99 fares to Europe, bookable by 23rd June, to mark the upcoming EU referendum! If you have registered to vote, Michael O'Leary and the team at Ryanair urge you to vote "Remain". The EU and its single market has enabled Ryanair to revolutionise air travel and lower the cost of holidays between the UK and Europe.
As Britain's largest airline we are absolutely clear that the economy and its future growth are stronger as a member of the EU and its single market. A “Remain” vote will lead to more jobs, stronger growth, more foreign direct investment (by Ryanair among others), and even more low fares.
EU open skies is a core part of the single market. If Britain leaves the EU single market/open skies, it is inevitable that air fares will rise, airline competition will reduce and the cost of holidays to Europe will increase. We urge all British Citizens to vote “Remain” and keep Britain's economy stronger, safer and more secure in a reformed EU. You'll also help keep fares from the UK to Europe as low as the £19.99 we have on offer this week.
There's none of the "a decision for the voters, XYZ company does not endorse any campaign" nonsense to avoid offending sensibilities from Ryanair.
Richard did you see my response to you on both threads earlier?
I did Topping. I was trying to find a way to respond without getting back into our earlier slagging matches.
Basically I disagree with your interpretation. You said "In other words, that annex seems to be aimed at any other non-banking union member of the EU that objects to the deal that the UK has achieved."
It seems clear that since the terms set out in Annex II relate specifically to the deal outlined in Section A of Annex I - which makes clear they apply to all members states not just the non Euro states excluding the UK - the article applies to the UK just as much as any other non Euro state. Indeed the only mention of the United Kingdom in relation to those articles is specifically in the title of the meeting "concerning a new settlement for the United Kingdom within the European Union".
The UK is not mentioned separately anywhere in either Annex I Section A Economic Governance nor in Annex II which clarifies the process outlined in Annex I. Basically the whole section on Economic Governance in both Annexes applies to all non Euro states and the UK is not exempt.
I know Richard Tyndall has strong contrary views, but one area where I think the debate has been fairly honest on both sides is on sovereignty, particularly in reference to the superstate.
Here, I view the EU rather like one of those quangos, like the old-PCC or a utility regulator, whose remit is rather grandiose, but whose powers to actually deliver against their remit are rather limited.
So, the 'Ever Closer Union' in the Treaty of Rome, is clearly relevant and its logical conclusion is the European superstate as emphasised by the Leavers. But, 54 years on, project completion would probably show as about 15%, because to obtain new competencies, the EU develops it treaties on a unanimous basis and it is these mechanics that are emphasised by the Remainers. Opt-outs and exceptions have been an essential part of moving forward even this far, and the ECJ can only really ever take a few nibbles at the edges of this.
In the coming years, there will be more political integration around the Eurozone, but it will not be rapid. The pushing of Britain to the edge is a genuine possibility from this. But I don't think many European citizens from anywhere envision a single nation Europe as the end goal, and none of the prospective Eastern EZ nations are progressing very fast towards EZ integration and would have every right to baulk if the rules of being in the EZ changed from those they signed up to. So, I feel both the timescales and roadblocks involved, give Britain a window of opportunity to develop a strong outer core of Europe where we will not be a lone voice of exceptionalism. We may not have got very far with this in 30 years and it may take another 10-15 years for it to play out, but you can't honestly say the super-statists are doing that much better.
DC's clause on the meaning of 'Ever Closer Union' is perhaps the most important part of his deal, because it is a strong marker. Yes, I expect there to be bumps in the writing of this into EU treaties, but as an acknowledgement of reality, I don't expect it ultimately to be struck down and I do expect it to have significant bearing on the future development of the EU.
As for the inner core, if they want an army, let 'em.
I know Richard Tyndall has strong contrary views, but one area where I think the debate has been fairly honest on both sides is on sovereignty, particularly in reference to the superstate.
Here, I view the EU rather like one of those quangos, like the old-PCC or a utility regulator, whose remit is rather grandiose, but whose powers to actually deliver against their remit are rather limited.
So, the 'Ever Closer Union' in the Treaty of Rome, is clearly relevant and its logical conclusion is the European superstate as emphasised by the Leavers. But, 54 years on, project completion would probably show as about 15%, because to obtain new competencies, the EU develops it treaties on a unanimous basis and it is these mechanics that are emphasised by the Remainers. Opt-outs and exceptions have been an essential part of moving forward even this far, and the ECJ can only really ever take a few nibbles at the edges of this.
In the coming years, there will be more political integration around the Eurozone, but it will not be rapid. The pushing of Britain to the edge is a genuine possibility from this. But I don't think many European citizens from anywhere envision a single nation Europe as the end goal, and none of the prospective Eastern EZ nations are progressing very fast towards EZ integration and would have every right to baulk if the rules of being in the EZ changed from those they signed up to. So, I feel both the timescales and roadblocks involved, give Britain a window of opportunity to develop a strong outer core of Europe where we will not be a lone voice of exceptionalism. We may not have got very far with this in 30 years and it may take another 10-15 years for it to play out, but you can't honestly say the super-statists are doing that much better.
DC's clause on the meaning of 'Ever Closer Union' is perhaps the most important part of his deal, because it is a strong marker. Yes, I expect there to be bumps in the writing of this into EU treaties, but as an acknowledgement of reality, I don't expect it ultimately to be struck down and I do expect it to have significant bearing on the future development of the EU.
As for the inner core, if they want an army, let 'em.
A bit of hope for Leavers. Just spoke to a friend who has been canvassing one of the big post war working class estates in Croydon where it is more than 80 per cent Leave.
If I'm having my brain operated on, absolutely, I would far prefer to have a qualified brain surgeon doing the job than a bus driver.
If I ask the brain surgeon or the bus driver for his opinion on political matters, there's no reason why I should assume that one is better qualified to answer than the other.
It's quite amusing.
You use experts for their in depth knowledge of a limited subject.
A referendum is a generalist matter which covers a wide range of issues.
Over reliance on experts simply says youve not understood the exercise
Particularly when they use their expertise to support the case for their desired political outcome.
The funniest thing Ive seen today was an interview on BBC Breakfast where the young lady representing Remain look positively affronted that people could quite happily consign the experts advice to the bin.
Poor dear maybe when she gets older she'll understand.
Afternoon, Mr. Brooke, it is to be hoped that she will come to understand that the role of expert is, in politics and business at least, to promote the cause of the people that are paying them.
There is an interesting discussion to be had on the limitations of expertise, and the limitations of resistance to expertise. I was thinking about this the other evening, and I think it relies on subject matter. Upon technical and fairly mechanical topics with (usually) a right or wrong answer, I would always rely upon an expert. I wouldn't try to fix my own washing machine. I wouldn't rely on an amateur to engineer a bridge or get a rocket inro space. I would want an expert by my side in difusing a bomb. But on subjects with incredible amounts of complexity, with thousands or millions of moving parts and dynamic forces, expertise quickly reaches its limits. Philosophy. Economics. Psychology. Biology, chemistry and physics. All we can hope to be there are perpetual students. And so called expertise can infact lead to damaging dogma. Medicine is such a topic. Because we're not even a fraction of the way to understanding how our bodies work, I would never put my faith in the expertise of doctors. But a surgeon sewing people up is fine.
Before XCOM released, I got loads of those and always skipped (so soon I didn't even realise what it was advertising). I only discovered the game later, by chance. I do wonder if ads are less effective than people think.
A bit of hope for Leavers. Just spoke to a friend who has been canvassing one of the big post war working class estates in Croydon where it is more than 80 per cent Leave.
That would be either New Addington, Forestdale, Ashburton or Waddon.
Until about 25 years ago they were solidly white working class. They are now solidly multiethnic working class. That is not good news for Remain.
A bit of hope for Leavers. Just spoke to a friend who has been canvassing one of the big post war working class estates in Croydon where it is more than 80 per cent Leave.
So, the 'Ever Closer Union' in the Treaty of Rome, is clearly relevant and its logical conclusion is the European superstate as emphasised by the Leavers. But, 54 years on, project completion would probably show as about 15%, because to obtain new competencies, the EU develops it treaties on a unanimous basis and it is these mechanics that are emphasised by the Remainers. Opt-outs and exceptions have been an essential part of moving forward even this far, and the ECJ can only really ever take a few nibbles at the edges of this.
In the coming years, there will be more political integration around the Eurozone, but it will not be rapid. The pushing of Britain to the edge is a genuine possibility from this. But I don't think many European citizens from anywhere envision a single nation Europe as the end goal, and none of the prospective Eastern EZ nations are progressing very fast towards EZ integration and would have every right to baulk if the rules of being in the EZ changed from those they signed up to. So, I feel both the timescales and roadblocks involved, give Britain a window of opportunity to develop a strong outer core of Europe where we will not be a lone voice of exceptionalism. We may not have got very far with this in 30 years and it may take another 10-15 years for it to play out, but you can't honestly say the super-statists are doing that much better.
DC's clause on the meaning of 'Ever Closer Union' is perhaps the most important part of his deal, because it is a strong marker. Yes, I expect there to be bumps in the writing of this into EU treaties, but as an acknowledgement of reality, I don't expect it ultimately to be struck down and I do expect it to have significant bearing on the future development of the EU.
As for the inner core, if they want an army, let 'em.
In broad terms I think the integration push has run out of steam at an unplanned half way point. There is no desire for anything looking like superstate from any of the countries that are part of the Treaty arrangements. Any further major developments will be done on an opt-in basis. Their can only be one policy within the EU but countries choose whether to be part of it. The army is an example of an opt-in policy. The ECJ is important because it protects the countries that haven't signed up.
Although David Cameron's "negotiations" were derided they contained an important new constitutional principle, introduced by Donald Tusk, that a competence which isn't explicitly reserved to the EU gets devolved back to the national governments. It's perhaps a statement of the obvious, but making explicit is a pointer, I think.
The question is whether the halfway house is workable - or whether you must have a superstate that no-one wants, or get out.
I know Richard Tyndall has strong contrary views, but one area where I think the debate has been fairly honest on both sides is on sovereignty, particularly in reference to the superstate.
Here, I view the EU rather like one of those quangos, like the old-PCC or a utility regulator, whose remit is rather grandiose, but whose powers to actually deliver against their remit are rather limited.
So, the 'Ever Closer Union' in the Treaty of Rome, is clearly relevant and its logical conclusion is the European superstate as emphasised by the Leavers. But, 54 years on, project completion would probably show as about 15%, because to obtain new competencies, the EU develops it treaties on a unanimous basis and it is these mechanics that are emphasised by the Remainers. Opt-outs and exceptions have been an essential part of moving forward even this far, and the ECJ can only really ever take a few nibbles at the edges of this.
In the coming years, there will be more political integration around the Eurozone, but it will not be rapid. The pushing of Britain to the edge is a genuine possibility from this. But I don't think many European citizens from anywhere envision a single nation Europe as the end goal, and none of the prospective Eastern EZ nations are progressing very fast towards EZ integration and would have every right to baulk if the rules of being in the EZ changed from those they signed up to. So, I feel both the timescales and roadblocks involved, give Britain a window of opportunity to develop a strong outer core of Europe where we will not be a lone voice of exceptionalism. We may not have got very far with this in 30 years and it may take another 10-15 years for it to play out, but you can't honestly say the super-statists are doing that much better.
I think the problem with that scenario is that Ever Closer Union has moved from being an aspiration that can be worked towards steadily to being an absolute necessity to ensure the survival of the Eurozone and the wider EU. Unless you they are going to consider duplicate institutions to exist alongside the current EU institutions then really there is no alternative but to have the European Parliament, Council and Commission become the political bodies governing the unified Eurozone - which is unviable if you still have other states still outside the Eurozone but taking part in and subject to the rulings of those institutions.
Basically it is a mess and the idea that things can carry on as they were before is untenable.
And as for timescale. Much of the time to date has been taken up with widening as well as deepening the EU. That widening is neither necessary nor desirable now whilst the deepening may not be desirable to all but is certainly very necessary.
My poor dad has just confused Sayeeda Warsi for Priti Patel! When I pointed out that they are different individuals he said he'd that he'd wondered why everyone had been saying that Warsi hadn't been campaigning for Leave.
A bit of hope for Leavers. Just spoke to a friend who has been canvassing one of the big post war working class estates in Croydon where it is more than 80 per cent Leave.
That would be either New Addington, Forestdale, Ashburton or Waddon.
Until about 25 years ago they were solidly white working class. They are now solidly multiethnic working class. That is not good news for Remain.
The anti-immigration immigrant/2nd gen immigrant is an interesting case study for the endless handwringing articles, post EUref.
My parents have friends who were immigrants from EU and non EU in the 1970s - both voting out.
I'm basing this on the results of the AV Referendum, I believe there will be a strong correlation between the places which voted more strongly for NO and places which will vote to leave more strongly and vice versa.
If we're talking absolute numbers of leave/remain votes, as opposed to %
Lowest Remain: Isles of Scilly
Lowest Leave: Isles of Scilly
Isles of Scilly are due to declare (according to Press Association) at 00:01 (before Sunderland)
Scenes in the HoC today reminiscent of North Korean stage managed grief.
No it isn't. For the first time in decades an MP was murdered, and her colleagues took the time to pay tribute , and as with all such tributes people can get ovreblown with it. That is not remotely like North Korean stage managed grief. It's precisely that ridiculousness that makes me sympathetic to overdone grief, because the opposition to it has become even more overdone.
A bit of hope for Leavers. Just spoke to a friend who has been canvassing one of the big post war working class estates in Croydon where it is more than 80 per cent Leave.
That would be either New Addington, Forestdale, Ashburton or Waddon.
Until about 25 years ago they were solidly white working class. They are now solidly multiethnic working class. That is not good news for Remain.
The anti-immigration immigrant/2nd gen immigrant is an interesting case study for the endless handwringing articles, post EUref.
My parents have friends who were immigrants from EU and non EU in the 1970s - both voting out.
I think Remain are very worried about this demographic which is why they stage managed this Warsi sideshow to try and undermine the Leave vote.
Richard did you see my response to you on both threads earlier?
I did Topping. I was trying to find a way to respond without getting back into our earlier slagging matches.
Basically I disagree with your interpretation. You said "In other words, that annex seems to be aimed at any other non-banking union member of the EU that objects to the deal that the UK has achieved."
It seems clear that since the terms set out in Annex II relate specifically to the deal outlined in Section A of Annex I - which makes clear they apply to all members states not just the non Euro states excluding the UK - the article applies to the UK just as much as any other non Euro state. Indeed the only mention of the United Kingdom in relation to those articles is specifically in the title of the meeting "concerning a new settlement for the United Kingdom within the European Union".
The UK is not mentioned separately anywhere in either Annex I Section A Economic Governance nor in Annex II which clarifies the process outlined in Annex I. Basically the whole section on Economic Governance in both Annexes applies to all non Euro states and the UK is not exempt.
Hmm I think that is incorrect.
Annex I is "economic governance", which relates to the banking union and the eurozone issue which the United Kingdom is explicitly acknowledged as having achieved a special status (non-eurozone members can opt in to the banking union).
It says if a member state not a member of the banking union objects then that objection....cannot be allowed to be a veto.
My reading therefore is that if any other non-banking, non-eurozone member EU state objects to the deal that the UK has achieved, then that objecting state cannot railroad the deal.
I am not expert enough to know which is the definitive interpretation. Neither are you. Absent Michael Dougan to opine (not sure you'd take his word for it) we will have to continue on our own paths.
Before XCOM released, I got loads of those and always skipped (so soon I didn't even realise what it was advertising). I only discovered the game later, by chance. I do wonder if ads are less effective than people think.
A game of percentages - some few will have paid more attention. I almost went to go so Warcraft for that very reason - I didn't care at all, but I saw the trailer so many times I became a little intrigued. Not enough, i haven't gone and seen it, but it may have gotten some numbers out.
Thankfully for the family and friends of Jo Cox the second court appearance of Mair was very low key today with no outbursts. Also I note that he has been charged under a "Terrorism protocol" which I presume changes some technical stuff about how long he can be held/questioned etc.
I'll go with West Belfast for remain and Basildon for leave.
The whole of Northern Ireland is apparently one counting area, but some of results maybe announced individually. I'm not sure if the result is be counted for the whole of Belfast rather than for each parliament constituency. I believe it is done by local government area across the rest of the country.
The only way people know how postal ballot are going is if they ask people and they say already voted so and so - the postal ballots are not opened until 10pm Thursday - the main envelope is opened to verify signature and date of birth
Richard did you see my response to you on both threads earlier?
I did Topping. I was trying to find a way to respond without getting back into our earlier slagging matches.
Basically I disagree with your interpretation. You said "In other words, that annex seems to be aimed at any other non-banking union member of the EU that objects to the deal that the UK has achieved."
It seems clear that since the terms set out in Annex II relate specifically to the deal outlined in Section A of Annex I - which makes clear they apply to all members states not just the non Euro states excluding the UK - the article applies to the UK just as much as any other non Euro state. Indeed the only mention of the United Kingdom in relation to those articles is specifically in the title of the meeting "concerning a new settlement for the United Kingdom within the European Union".
The UK is not mentioned separately anywhere in either Annex I Section A Economic Governance nor in Annex II which clarifies the process outlined in Annex I. Basically the whole section on Economic Governance in both Annexes applies to all non Euro states and the UK is not exempt.
Hmm I think that is incorrect.
Annex I is "economic governance", which relates to the banking union and the eurozone issue which the United Kingdom is explicitly acknowledged as having achieved a special status (non-eurozone members can opt in to the banking union).
It says if a member state not a member of the banking union objects then that objection....cannot be allowed to be a veto.
My reading therefore is that if any other non-banking, non-eurozone member EU state objects to the deal that the UK has achieved, then that objecting state cannot railroad the deal.
I am not expert enough to know which is the definitive interpretation. Neither are you. Absent Michael Dougan to opine (not sure you'd take his word for it) we will have to continue on our own paths.
(but I am right )
Not surprisingly I see nothing in either Annex to justify that interpretation.
Nigel Farage and his motley crew don’t speak for everyone in the Leave campaign and I feel sorry for the good and decent and intelligent and downright nice people who are on that side of the dispute but who do not much care for Farage and his game. But these are the people you lie with and that, in the end, is a choice.
What’s more, it’s hard to disassociate yourselves from Farageist excess when the official campaign prattles on about how Turkey is going to be joining the EU. And, nudge-nudge, wink-wink, you know what that means, don’t you? Of course you do. There’s a spectrum and if Farage and Arron Banks are at one end of it, there are plenty of other, more ostensibly respectable, people who are closer to Farage than they are to the centre. That’s a choice too.
I hope these silly comments about postal votes and the Croydon council estate are taken for what they are. Postal vote envelopes are opened but not viewed the day before and counted the night of polling. As for the Council estate, surely anyone like myself who goes canvassing knows from their own experience that half the folk are normally out, another 20% wont answer and you are left with a small number, some of whom tell you what you want to hear to get rid of you.
A bit of hope for Leavers. Just spoke to a friend who has been canvassing one of the big post war working class estates in Croydon where it is more than 80 per cent Leave.
That would be either New Addington, Forestdale, Ashburton or Waddon.
Until about 25 years ago they were solidly white working class. They are now solidly multiethnic working class. That is not good news for Remain.
The anti-immigration immigrant/2nd gen immigrant is an interesting case study for the endless handwringing articles, post EUref.
My parents have friends who were immigrants from EU and non EU in the 1970s - both voting out.
This story is from a good few years ago. I suspect it is worse now. Family know some (black) Zimbabweans. Some of family saved for heaven knows how long to come over here on holiday to pay fare and visa.
Get to UK airport. Basically told you are lying and you are trying to immigrate here. Your on the next plane back. After intervention of UK based family they were allowed to stay for 48 hours.
-------------
Want to visit your cousin to be best man at his wedding and live in Sri lanka. Visa fee ~£100. Return flights from Colombo start from £363. And if they say F*** off then no refund of visa fee.
Want to visit your cousin and be best man at his wedding and live in Barbados, Same thing. By the way HM Queen is head of state there. We are part of the same goddam Kingdom.
So your weddings ruined, your cousins a couple of months pay out of pocket as the £100 fee isn't refunded.
Then just to cap it all you get a burst pipe and some Lithuanian who can hardly speak English turns up.
But being from the Commonwealth at least you get to vote in the EU referendum.
Then our politicians smugly take the ethnic vote for granted, because obviously brexiteers are waycist.
Largest remain over leave constituencies from my 2015 model are:
Fermanagh & South Tyrone Newry & Armagh Ulster Mid Belfast West Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch & Strathspey Dunbartonshire East Bristol West Gordon Tyrone West Edinburgh West
what is striking about those demographics is how flat and single dimensional they are.
it is really just an age break. The other stuff; education, region, NRS grade, are confounded data and if you backed out the age variable i suspect most would disappear.... A bit of education might stay but not much. And then the indexing on age 75 to 125. Wow that is very flat. A lot flatter than i would have guessed.
In market research you're taught to 'simplify then exaggerate'. which is old WWC non London out, the rest in. That is very far from the reality shown by the above charts.
A bit of hope for Leavers. Just spoke to a friend who has been canvassing one of the big post war working class estates in Croydon where it is more than 80 per cent Leave.
That would be either New Addington, Forestdale, Ashburton or Waddon.
Until about 25 years ago they were solidly white working class. They are now solidly multiethnic working class. That is not good news for Remain.
The anti-immigration immigrant/2nd gen immigrant is an interesting case study for the endless handwringing articles, post EUref.
My parents have friends who were immigrants from EU and non EU in the 1970s - both voting out.
This story is from a good few years ago. I suspect it is worse now. Family know some (black) Zimbabweans. Some of family saved for heaven knows how long to come over here on holiday to pay fare and visa.
Get to UK airport. Basically told you are lying and you are trying to immigrate here. Your on the next plane back. After intervention of UK based family they were allowed to stay for 48 hours.
-------------
Want to visit your cousin to be best man at his wedding and live in Sri lanka. Visa fee ~£100. Return flights from Colombo start from £363. And if they say F*** off then no refund of visa fee.
Want to visit your cousin and be best man at his wedding and live in Barbados, Same thing. By the way HM Queen is head of state there. We are part of the same goddam Kingdom.
So your weddings ruined, your cousins a couple of months pay out of pocket as the £100 fee isn't refunded.
Then just to cap it all you get a burst pipe and some Lithuanian who can hardly speak English turns up.
But being from the Commonwealth at least you get to vote in the EU referendum.
Then our politicians smugly take the ethnic vote for granted, because obviously brexiteers are waycist.
#ignorethepolls
As soon as you write waycist you undermine anything and everything you write. It's juvenile.
Nigel Farage and his motley crew don’t speak for everyone in the Leave campaign and I feel sorry for the good and decent and intelligent and downright nice people who are on that side of the dispute but who do not much care for Farage and his game. But these are the people you lie with and that, in the end, is a choice.
What’s more, it’s hard to disassociate yourselves from Farageist excess when the official campaign prattles on about how Turkey is going to be joining the EU. And, nudge-nudge, wink-wink, you know what that means, don’t you? Of course you do. There’s a spectrum and if Farage and Arron Banks are at one end of it, there are plenty of other, more ostensibly respectable, people who are closer to Farage than they are to the centre. That’s a choice too.
Theres a spectrum in Remain Jezza at one end and Dave at the other.
That really is a pointless post.
Indeed. Absolute bollocks. If I believe something is right, I don't stop believing it to be right just because a jackass does also, and I have no remorse for holding that view because a jackass does.
Even the very worst people hold some true and even good values. It would be stupidity of the utmost degree for everyone else to eschew those good values because of a totally artificial and spurious 'association' of people holding that value with the evil person.
The only way people know how postal ballot are going is if they ask people and they say already voted so and so - the postal ballots are not opened until 10pm Thursday - the main envelope is opened to verify signature and date of birth
Unless things have changed since 2010, you can often make out the mark through the ballot paper - these were taken out of their inner envelope at the postal vote verification stage and put into the postal vote ballot box.
Scutineers can get a fair idea at the verification stage - even though the ballot papers are only shown face down. I attended the opening of postal votes for the Norwich North by-election in July 2009.
I'm trying to download Matt Singh's (http://www.ncpolitics.uk/ ) predictions, but the silly sausage has done each individual prediction as a single image (e.g. h ttp://www.ncpolitics.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/Screen-Shot-2016-05-24-at-21.15.15-1024x515.png ). To do each individual one will take me hours. Can anybody point me to a table/spreadsheet containing his predictions?
A cancelled meeting (well, there's a surprise) as most of the men want to leave early and make sure they are in good time for the football tonight.
Thumbing through some of the afternoon posts, I'm left with the view REMAIN are playing the psychological card at this late hour. Once again, the self-interested prophets of doom are out and about telling us how the world will end if we have the affront to vote LEAVE on Thursday.
Everything is now being done to de-motivate the LEAVE vote before Thursday whether it be more warnings of disaster or simply the sneering and jeering of those wedded to either the current leadership of the Conservative Party or wedded to the fear of an alternative leadership team ?
As I'm not a Conservative, I don't care. The Sun is shining and I'm voting LEAVE on Thursday.
As someone might have said "It's a new dawn, it's a new day, it's a new start for the UK....and we're feeling good".
Football tonight - depends which England turns up and to a large extent which Slovakia. hey could frustrate us out of this but an early England goal will calm nerves and force them to come to us. If we win Group B, we'll know our next opponents by the end of tomorrow and we play Saturday late afternoon. If we are runners up, we could have to play Portugal or perhaps Iceland but we wouldn't know that for some while and the game would be next Monday evening.
Why would they finish early to go watch a minor league game
''Sitting in Hampstead, and I realise I'm getting a very London-centric view, I'm not sure I agree. It's 29-1 in my office, and I've counted North of 30 Remain posters in my 'hood at the weekend, against zero for Leave.''
Indeed, but ABC1 takes many forms. JohnO has posted how shocked he was at the support for Leave in Elmbridge, which is Britain's taxpayer powerhouse.
I have a feeling when some pollsters think ABC1 they think well paid public sector civil servants - but anyway, we shall see.
I've done several canvassing sessions with Labour In in London - admittedly it's a borough identified as leaning to Remain but the results have been overwhelming - you're looking at more than 70% remain - perhaps 80% assuming the don't knows split 50-50. Leavers are a tiny minority, even in social housing estates.
They will want to keep the laundry busy washing all that dough
A bit of hope for Leavers. Just spoke to a friend who has been canvassing one of the big post war working class estates in Croydon where it is more than 80 per cent Leave.
That would be either New Addington, Forestdale, Ashburton or Waddon.
Until about 25 years ago they were solidly white working class. They are now solidly multiethnic working class. That is not good news for Remain.
The anti-immigration immigrant/2nd gen immigrant is an interesting case study for the endless handwringing articles, post EUref.
My parents have friends who were immigrants from EU and non EU in the 1970s - both voting out.
This story is from a good few years ago. I suspect it is worse now. Family know some (black) Zimbabweans. Some of family saved for heaven knows how long to come over here on holiday to pay fare and visa.
Get to UK airport. Basically told you are lying and you are trying to immigrate here. Your on the next plane back. After intervention of UK based family they were allowed to stay for 48 hours.
-------------
Want to visit your cousin to be best man at his wedding and live in Sri lanka. Visa fee ~£100. Return flights from Colombo start from £363. And if they say F*** off then no refund of visa fee.
Want to visit your cousin and be best man at his wedding and live in Barbados, Same thing. By the way HM Queen is head of state there. We are part of the same goddam Kingdom.
So your weddings ruined, your cousins a couple of months pay out of pocket as the £100 fee isn't refunded.
Then just to cap it all you get a burst pipe and some Lithuanian who can hardly speak English turns up.
But being from the Commonwealth at least you get to vote in the EU referendum.
Then our politicians smugly take the ethnic vote for granted, because obviously brexiteers are waycist.
#ignorethepolls
As soon as you write waycist you undermine anything and everything you write. It's juvenile.
Whereas the senseless name calling of anyone raising the issue isn't ?
A bit of hope for Leavers. Just spoke to a friend who has been canvassing one of the big post war working class estates in Croydon where it is more than 80 per cent Leave.
That would be either New Addington, Forestdale, Ashburton or Waddon.
Until about 25 years ago they were solidly white working class. They are now solidly multiethnic working class. That is not good news for Remain.
The anti-immigration immigrant/2nd gen immigrant is an interesting case study for the endless handwringing articles, post EUref.
My parents have friends who were immigrants from EU and non EU in the 1970s - both voting out.
I think Remain are very worried about this demographic which is why they stage managed this Warsi sideshow to try and undermine the Leave vote.
The anti Muslim (ie anti Turkish or anti refugee) sentiment from Leave is not going down well well with my Muslim colleagues. Not so much with other groups, who are often open to it.
I suspect that postal votes from various postcodes can be associated with one side or another by people with local knowledge, depending on the demographics.
Scutineers can get a fair idea at the verification stage - even though the ballot papers are only shown face down. I attended the opening of postal votes for the Norwich North by-election in July 2009.
There are two envelopes, the verification only requires the outer one to be opened and the date of birth and signature sheet checked. Are you saying that they also open the inner envelope?
A cancelled meeting (well, there's a surprise) as most of the men want to leave early and make sure they are in good time for the football tonight.
Thumbing through some of the afternoon posts, I'm left with the view REMAIN are playing the psychological card at this late hour. Once again, the self-interested prophets of doom are out and about telling us how the world will end if we have the affront to vote LEAVE on Thursday.
Everything is now being done to de-motivate the LEAVE vote before Thursday whether it be more warnings of disaster or simply the sneering and jeering of those wedded to either the current leadership of the Conservative Party or wedded to the fear of an alternative leadership team ?
As I'm not a Conservative, I don't care. The Sun is shining and I'm voting LEAVE on Thursday.
As someone might have said "It's a new dawn, it's a new day, it's a new start for the UK....and we're feeling good".
Football tonight - depends which England turns up and to a large extent which Slovakia. hey could frustrate us out of this but an early England goal will calm nerves and force them to come to us. If we win Group B, we'll know our next opponents by the end of tomorrow and we play Saturday late afternoon. If we are runners up, we could have to play Portugal or perhaps Iceland but we wouldn't know that for some while and the game would be next Monday evening.
Why would they finish early to go watch a minor league game
''Sitting in Hampstead, and I realise I'm getting a very London-centric view, I'm not sure I agree. It's 29-1 in my office, and I've counted North of 30 Remain posters in my 'hood at the weekend, against zero for Leave.''
Indeed, but ABC1 takes many forms. JohnO has posted how shocked he was at the support for Leave in Elmbridge, which is Britain's taxpayer powerhouse.
I have a feeling when some pollsters think ABC1 they think well paid public sector civil servants - but anyway, we shall see.
I've done several canvassing sessions with Labour In in London - admittedly it's a borough identified as leaning to Remain but the results have been overwhelming - you're looking at more than 70% remain - perhaps 80% assuming the don't knows split 50-50. Leavers are a tiny minority, even in social housing estates.
They will want to keep the laundry busy washing all that dough
Scutineers can get a fair idea at the verification stage - even though the ballot papers are only shown face down. I attended the opening of postal votes for the Norwich North by-election in July 2009.
I would have thought they would have to open the ballot envelope to verify that there is actually a ballot paper inside.
Scutineers can get a fair idea at the verification stage - even though the ballot papers are only shown face down. I attended the opening of postal votes for the Norwich North by-election in July 2009.
There are two envelopes, the verification only requires the outer one to be opened and the date of birth and signature sheet checked. Are you saying that they also open the inner envelope?
Indeed so. The ballot papers were removed and placed face downwards. This happened in daily sessions in the week prior to polling day. I was able to make a very accurate forecast of the result based on my observations - to the surprise of many I suggested that UKIP would beat the Greens!
A bit of hope for Leavers. Just spoke to a friend who has been canvassing one of the big post war working class estates in Croydon where it is more than 80 per cent Leave.
That would be either New Addington, Forestdale, Ashburton or Waddon.
Until about 25 years ago they were solidly white working class. They are now solidly multiethnic working class. That is not good news for Remain.
The anti-immigration immigrant/2nd gen immigrant is an interesting case study for the endless handwringing articles, post EUref.
My parents have friends who were immigrants from EU and non EU in the 1970s - both voting out.
This story is from a good few years ago. I suspect it is worse now. Family know some (black) Zimbabweans. Some of family saved for heaven knows how long to come over here on holiday to pay fare and visa.
Get to UK airport. Basically told you are lying and you are trying to immigrate here. Your on the next plane back. After intervention of UK based family they were allowed to stay for 48 hours.
-------------
Want to visit your cousin to be best man at his wedding and live in Sri lanka. Visa fee ~£100. Return flights from Colombo start from £363. And if they say F*** off then no refund of visa fee.
Want to visit your cousin and be best man at his wedding and live in Barbados, Same thing. By the way HM Queen is head of state there. We are part of the same goddam Kingdom.
So your weddings ruined, your cousins a couple of months pay out of pocket as the £100 fee isn't refunded.
Then just to cap it all you get a burst pipe and some Lithuanian who can hardly speak English turns up.
But being from the Commonwealth at least you get to vote in the EU referendum.
Then our politicians smugly take the ethnic vote for granted, because obviously brexiteers are waycist.
#ignorethepolls
As soon as you write waycist you undermine anything and everything you write. It's juvenile.
So are the SJW types who used whined cries of "waycist" to try to shut down arguments.
A bit of hope for Leavers. Just spoke to a friend who has been canvassing one of the big post war working class estates in Croydon where it is more than 80 per cent Leave.
That would be either New Addington, Forestdale, Ashburton or Waddon.
Until about 25 years ago they were solidly white working class. They are now solidly multiethnic working class. That is not good news for Remain.
The anti-immigration immigrant/2nd gen immigrant is an interesting case study for the endless handwringing articles, post EUref.
My parents have friends who were immigrants from EU and non EU in the 1970s - both voting out.
This story is from a good few years ago. I suspect it is worse now. Family know some (black) Zimbabweans. Some of family saved for heaven knows how long to come over here on holiday to pay fare and visa.
Get to UK airport. Basically told you are lying and you are trying to immigrate here. Your on the next plane back. After intervention of UK based family they were allowed to stay for 48 hours.
-------------
Want to visit your cousin to be best man at his wedding and live in Sri lanka. Visa fee ~£100. Return flights from Colombo start from £363. And if they say F*** off then no refund of visa fee.
Want to visit your cousin and be best man at his wedding and live in Barbados, Same thing. By the way HM Queen is head of state there. We are part of the same goddam Kingdom.
So your weddings ruined, your cousins a couple of months pay out of pocket as the £100 fee isn't refunded.
Then just to cap it all you get a burst pipe and some Lithuanian who can hardly speak English turns up.
But being from the Commonwealth at least you get to vote in the EU referendum.
Then our politicians smugly take the ethnic vote for granted, because obviously brexiteers are waycist.
#ignorethepolls
As soon as you write waycist you undermine anything and everything you write. It's juvenile.
This is a betting site. Ignore it if you want and bet accordingly.
A bit of hope for Leavers. Just spoke to a friend who has been canvassing one of the big post war working class estates in Croydon where it is more than 80 per cent Leave.
That would be either New Addington, Forestdale, Ashburton or Waddon.
Until about 25 years ago they were solidly white working class. They are now solidly multiethnic working class. That is not good news for Remain.
The anti-immigration immigrant/2nd gen immigrant is an interesting case study for the endless handwringing articles, post EUref.
My parents have friends who were immigrants from EU and non EU in the 1970s - both voting out.
This story is from a good few years ago. I suspect it is worse now. Family know some (black) Zimbabweans. Some of family saved for heaven knows how long to come over here on holiday to pay fare and visa.
Get to UK airport. Basically told you are lying and you are trying to immigrate here. Your on the next plane back. After intervention of UK based family they were allowed to stay for 48 hours.
-------------
Want to visit your cousin to be best man at his wedding and live in Sri lanka. Visa fee ~£100. Return flights from Colombo start from £363. And if they say F*** off then no refund of visa fee.
Want to visit your cousin and be best man at his wedding and live in Barbados, Same thing. By the way HM Queen is head of state there. We are part of the same goddam Kingdom.
So your weddings ruined, your cousins a couple of months pay out of pocket as the £100 fee isn't refunded.
Then just to cap it all you get a burst pipe and some Lithuanian who can hardly speak English turns up.
But being from the Commonwealth at least you get to vote in the EU referendum.
Then our politicians smugly take the ethnic vote for granted, because obviously brexiteers are waycist.
#ignorethepolls
As soon as you write waycist you undermine anything and everything you write. It's juvenile.
So are the SJW types who used whined cries of "waycist" to try to shut down arguments.
It doesn't work any more.
And nor should it. However an element of Leaves support is based on what can at best be described as xenophobia. Giggling as you write "waycist" doesn't make it acceptable.
Yes the staunchest Remain voter is a young middle class LD voting graduate who lives in London and likes to travel and reads the Guardian.
The staunchest Leave voter is a working class UKIP voting pensioner who left school at 16 and lives in the East of England and rarely goes abroad and reads the Sun
Relationship with EU after Leave (Immigration vs trade)
Should there be a second vote if we are offered better terms
Half a dozen or more questions on views on Leave/Remain (More/Less safe from terrorism, better worse off personally, better/worse off for country economically, better worse off pensions, trade, immigration and a few others.
Honesty of campaigns
Should Cameron resign
Where do you go for news
Who influences your views (Friends/family/ politicians/experts etc)
Edit. Importantly also asked if I was registered to vote. Sorry missed that one off the list.
Comments
Logan's Run would be a cakewalk for Remain.
http://www.channel4.com/info/press/news/europe-the-final-debate-with-jeremy-paxman?hootPostID=f2178c69d6237bb85b3d0fd5fb6860c5
https://twitter.com/chrishanretty/status/744933888158490624
Given the unfamiliarity of the pollster, I'm not inclined to do much more than note the trend.
Basically I disagree with your interpretation. You said "In other words, that annex seems to be aimed at any other non-banking union member of the EU that objects to the deal that the UK has achieved."
It seems clear that since the terms set out in Annex II relate specifically to the deal outlined in Section A of Annex I - which makes clear they apply to all members states not just the non Euro states excluding the UK - the article applies to the UK just as much as any other non Euro state. Indeed the only mention of the United Kingdom in relation to those articles is specifically in the title of the meeting "concerning a new settlement for the United Kingdom within the European Union".
The UK is not mentioned separately anywhere in either Annex I Section A Economic Governance nor in Annex II which clarifies the process outlined in Annex I. Basically the whole section on Economic Governance in both Annexes applies to all non Euro states and the UK is not exempt.
"Smiles" surely?
Literary illiterate as well as economically.... ;-)
Here, I view the EU rather like one of those quangos, like the old-PCC or a utility regulator, whose remit is rather grandiose, but whose powers to actually deliver against their remit are rather limited.
So, the 'Ever Closer Union' in the Treaty of Rome, is clearly relevant and its logical conclusion is the European superstate as emphasised by the Leavers. But, 54 years on, project completion would probably show as about 15%, because to obtain new competencies, the EU develops it treaties on a unanimous basis and it is these mechanics that are emphasised by the Remainers. Opt-outs and exceptions have been an essential part of moving forward even this far, and the ECJ can only really ever take a few nibbles at the edges of this.
In the coming years, there will be more political integration around the Eurozone, but it will not be rapid. The pushing of Britain to the edge is a genuine possibility from this. But I don't think many European citizens from anywhere envision a single nation Europe as the end goal, and none of the prospective Eastern EZ nations are progressing very fast towards EZ integration and would have every right to baulk if the rules of being in the EZ changed from those they signed up to. So, I feel both the timescales and roadblocks involved, give Britain a window of opportunity to develop a strong outer core of Europe where we will not be a lone voice of exceptionalism. We may not have got very far with this in 30 years and it may take another 10-15 years for it to play out, but you can't honestly say the super-statists are doing that much better.
DC's clause on the meaning of 'Ever Closer Union' is perhaps the most important part of his deal, because it is a strong marker. Yes, I expect there to be bumps in the writing of this into EU treaties, but as an acknowledgement of reality, I don't expect it ultimately to be struck down and I do expect it to have significant bearing on the future development of the EU.
As for the inner core, if they want an army, let 'em.
I'm going to go with Blaenau Gwent.
Lowest = Gibraltar.
Anyone else want to play?
I don't think I needed a hint that I'm naturally a champagne socialist.
Before XCOM released, I got loads of those and always skipped (so soon I didn't even realise what it was advertising). I only discovered the game later, by chance. I do wonder if ads are less effective than people think.
Highest: Lincolnshire
Lowest: City of Lahn-dahn
Until about 25 years ago they were solidly white working class. They are now solidly multiethnic working class. That is not good news for Remain.
Although David Cameron's "negotiations" were derided they contained an important new constitutional principle, introduced by Donald Tusk, that a competence which isn't explicitly reserved to the EU gets devolved back to the national governments. It's perhaps a statement of the obvious, but making explicit is a pointer, I think.
The question is whether the halfway house is workable - or whether you must have a superstate that no-one wants, or get out.
I'll go with West Belfast for remain and Basildon for leave.
Basically it is a mess and the idea that things can carry on as they were before is untenable.
And as for timescale. Much of the time to date has been taken up with widening as well as deepening the EU. That widening is neither necessary nor desirable now whilst the deepening may not be desirable to all but is certainly very necessary.
12/13 June Telephone putting leave ahead 49-43
14/16th May Telephone putting remain ahead 55-37
16th-18th April putting remain ahead 49-39
19-22 Mar putting remain ahead ahead 49-41
13-16 Feb putting remsin ahead 54-36
23=25 Jan putting remain head 55-36.
Their June poll has outlier all over it and they have had some quite wild swings.
My parents have friends who were immigrants from EU and non EU in the 1970s - both voting out.
Highest Leave: Castle Point: 73%
Lowest Leave: Hackney: 25%
I'm basing this on the results of the AV Referendum, I believe there will be a strong correlation between the places which voted more strongly for NO and places which will vote to leave more strongly and vice versa.
If we're talking absolute numbers of leave/remain votes, as opposed to %
Lowest Remain: Isles of Scilly
Lowest Leave: Isles of Scilly
Isles of Scilly are due to declare (according to Press Association) at 00:01 (before Sunderland)
http://election.pressassociation.com/Declaration_times/eu_ref_2016_by_time.php
http://www.theyworkforyou.com/wrans/?id=2016-05-25.38491.h
Annex I is "economic governance", which relates to the banking union and the eurozone issue which the United Kingdom is explicitly acknowledged as having achieved a special status (non-eurozone members can opt in to the banking union).
It says if a member state not a member of the banking union objects then that objection....cannot be allowed to be a veto.
My reading therefore is that if any other non-banking, non-eurozone member EU state objects to the deal that the UK has achieved, then that objecting state cannot railroad the deal.
I am not expert enough to know which is the definitive interpretation. Neither are you. Absent Michael Dougan to opine (not sure you'd take his word for it) we will have to continue on our own paths.
(but I am right
Unintentional, I'm sure..
Clacton
Rochester & Strood
Thanet South
Boston & Skegness
Castle Point
Thurrock
Hornchurch & Upminster
Lagan Valley
Rayleigh & Wickford
Heywood & Middleton
My council knowledge is not good enough to translate that....
Cambridge for Remain
My punt, based on guesswork and my relatives.
Get to UK airport. Basically told you are lying and you are trying to immigrate here. Your on the next plane back. After intervention of UK based family they were allowed to stay for 48 hours.
-------------
Want to visit your cousin to be best man at his wedding and live in Sri lanka. Visa fee ~£100. Return flights from Colombo start from £363. And if they say F*** off then no refund of visa fee.
Want to visit your cousin and be best man at his wedding and live in Barbados, Same thing. By the way HM Queen is head of state there. We are part of the same goddam Kingdom.
So your weddings ruined, your cousins a couple of months pay out of pocket as the £100 fee isn't refunded.
Then just to cap it all you get a burst pipe and some Lithuanian who can hardly speak English turns up.
But being from the Commonwealth at least you get to vote in the EU referendum.
Then our politicians smugly take the ethnic vote for granted, because obviously brexiteers are waycist.
#ignorethepolls
@rowenamason: Vote Leave board member quits over anti-Muslim retweets https://t.co/cNJAYjV25T
Not a racist campaign. At all.
Fermanagh & South Tyrone
Newry & Armagh
Ulster Mid
Belfast West
Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch & Strathspey
Dunbartonshire East
Bristol West
Gordon
Tyrone West
Edinburgh West
it is really just an age break. The other stuff; education, region, NRS grade, are confounded data and if you backed out the age variable i suspect most would disappear.... A bit of education might stay but not much. And then the indexing on age 75 to 125. Wow that is very flat. A lot flatter than i would have guessed.
In market research you're taught to 'simplify then exaggerate'. which is old WWC non London out, the rest in. That is very far from the reality shown by the above charts.
Even the very worst people hold some true and even good values. It would be stupidity of the utmost degree for everyone else to eschew those good values because of a totally artificial and spurious 'association' of people holding that value with the evil person.
A stunningly brilliant piece of writing from Brendan O'Neill on remain's prejudices
Remember last Monday's ICM and the wild stock market fluctuations after 'rumours'. There were even people tweeting polls which were a month old!
I suspect that postal votes from various postcodes can be associated with one side or another by people with local knowledge, depending on the demographics.
Indyref Yes journo I follow on Twitter, saying big support for Leave when he was talking to workers at Nissan Sunderland today.
It doesn't work any more.
The staunchest Leave voter is a working class UKIP voting pensioner who left school at 16 and lives in the East of England and rarely goes abroad and reads the Sun
EU VI
How definite to vote.
Have I already voted
Main driver for the way I will vote
What time will I vote
Relationship with EU after Leave (Immigration vs trade)
Should there be a second vote if we are offered better terms
Half a dozen or more questions on views on Leave/Remain (More/Less safe from terrorism, better worse off personally, better/worse off for country economically, better worse off pensions, trade, immigration and a few others.
Honesty of campaigns
Should Cameron resign
Where do you go for news
Who influences your views (Friends/family/ politicians/experts etc)
Edit. Importantly also asked if I was registered to vote. Sorry missed that one off the list.