politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Roger on a step change in negative political advertising

KentRising said:

SouthamObserver said:

Completely agree. This is not about left or right, it is about class. The middle class establishment - Leave and Remain - has shown it knows nothing about and cares very little for working class voters. They are the punch-bags of this country and will continue to be so. The truth is that the working class's problem is that it is now nowhere near 50% of the population. It is not important politically in normal circumstances and so can be safely ignored. It is Mondeo man who matters, or Worcester woman; not people that live in sink estates in Leeds, Liverpool or London. They either do not vote or live in very safe Labour constituencies. It's the nature of a referendum - no constituencies, a binary choice - that has given the working class its day in the sun. On 24th June they will be forgotten or despised once more.

The establishment is not middle class. It is a class of its own, that thinks itself superior to the middle classes and all other classes.

Sean_F said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

There seems to be an increasing narrative from labour that this was a hate crime and most labour politician seems to be trying to tie it in with Farage and his poster. I cannot stand the man but Alastair Campbell directly levered into an interview on Sky and the International coverage is doing the same. Whether it is fair or not I believe with more information coming out about the alleged assassin over the next few days and with the HOC tribute on Monday it may just be that Farage could have lost this for leave from a winning position. Indeed the betting and money markets seem to be indicating a more likely result will be remain. My own personal view is that leave may just win but it is less certain than it was and I also believe that any polls researched before yesterday's terrible events need to be considered with caution

I can't imagine anything more likely to put the backs up people who are contemplating a vote for Leave. Especially, Labour voters.

MarkHopkins said:

Sean_F said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

There seems to be an increasing narrative from labour that this was a hate crime and most labour politician seems to be trying to tie it in with Farage and his poster. I cannot stand the man but Alastair Campbell directly levered into an interview on Sky and the International coverage is doing the same. Whether it is fair or not I believe with more information coming out about the alleged assassin over the next few days and with the HOC tribute on Monday it may just be that Farage could have lost this for leave from a winning position. Indeed the betting and money markets seem to be indicating a more likely result will be remain. My own personal view is that leave may just win but it is less certain than it was and I also believe that any polls researched before yesterday's terrible events need to be considered with caution

I can't imagine anything more likely to put the backs up people who are contemplating a vote for Leave. Especially, Labour voters.

The rhetoric seems to have jump up a notch. No longer are you "like Farage" if you vote Leave, but apparently you are like a mentally-disturbed killer.

Jumped up a notch? No, jumped the shark.

Sandpit said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Pulpstar said:

Reposting from another (investing) forum that analyses Brexit etc: (P2P)

The poster knows his onions...

A few days ago I posted a link to an online poll showing an unbelievable 81% Leave vote www.pollstation.uk/eu-referendum/poll/ which is now up to c. 133,000 votes. Clearly the types of people finding and responding to that poll (I found it via a link on a broadsheet comment section) are not the average demographic that the polling agencies have so carefully constructed.

The bar graph on that page can be changed to a line graph over time by clicking the bottom right icon. Given the events of the last 24 hours, and what may be a muted tone for the remainder of the campaign, I thought it might be worth analysing how the votes on this poll have been allocated on a daily basis since the start of June.

Apart from the 9th of June, the 2000 plus votes added each day have been pretty consistently around the 80% mark for leave. The votes so far today seem in line with recent days.

Surely this is just a voodoo poll.

Wouldn't let me vote as I'm not in the UK. Looks like a voodoo poll though, has a self-selecting participation. Oh, and it says 81/16/3 which is way out of line with anything else!

SouthamObserver said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

SouthamObserver said:

another_richard said:

PlatoSaid said:

FF43 said:

another_richard said:

RealBritain said:

"I completely understand that Leavers feel very upset about any linkage between the referendum campaign and Jo Cox's death. Whatever her killer's motives, he and he alone is responsible for his actions.

But - and yes, there is a but - Leavers nee......
Yes.

We are in an era of demonization on all sides.

Politics is now a zero sum game - for your side to gain the people on the other side need to lose.

Its 'take it from them and give it to me'.

And ed.

Even better if they can be successfully demonised then taking from them becomes the 'righteous' thing to do.

There is nothing more zero it out."

When you elect representatives, one lot is basically as good as another. It isn't as stark.

Cobblers - instead.

We it - in spades.

They on and on.

That's not grown-up politics, it's childish and insulting.

Not forgetting carrot-crunchers, football hooligans, people in semis in Watford and of course this:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3609357/Operation-Black-Vote-unveils-controversial-referendum-poster-comparing-Asian-woman-angry-white-thug-Nigel-Farage-claims-goes-far.html

The Stuart Rose / Emily Thornberry mentality is never short of intolerance and demonisation of people different to themselves.

Britain is not going to be a happy place now that it has discovered what it thinks of other parts of it.

The

You are so full of poison for these people "from the right" that I worry for your sanity. Do you ever smile, have fun or eat chocolate?

I do. But you are correct that I feel nothing but contempt for right wingers who have suddenly discovered that the working class have been having a pretty crap time of it for a number of years. And the idea that when Boris, Priti and co do take over they are going to be remotely concerned about people whose votes they no longer need and whose lives they know nothing about is far-fetched to say the least.

Pulpstar said:

Reposting from another (investing) forum that analyses Brexit etc: (P2P)

The poster knows his onions...

A few days ago I posted a link to an online polel showing an unbelievable 81% Leave vote www.pollstation.uk/eu-referendum/poll/ which is now up to c. 133,000 votes. Clearly the types of people finding and responding to that poll (I found it via a link on a broadsheet comment section) are not the average demographic that the polling agencies have so carefully constructed.

The bar graph on that page can be changed to a line graph over time by clicking the bottom right icon. Given the events of the last 24 hours, and what may be a muted tone for the remainder of the campaign, I thought it might be worth analysing how the votes on this poll have been allocated on a daily basis since the start of June.

Apart from the 9th of June, the 2000 plus votes added each day have been pretty consistently around the 80% mark for leave. The votes so far today seem in line with recent days.

Pulpstar said:

Reposting from another (investing) forum that analyses Brexit etc: (P2P)

The poster knows his onions...

A few days ago I posted a link to an online poll showing an unbelievable 81% Leave vote www.pollstation.uk/eu-referendum/poll/ which is now up to c. 133,000 votes. Clearly the types of people finding and responding to that poll (I found it via a link on a broadsheet comment section) are not the average demographic that the polling agencies have so carefully constructed.

The bar graph on that page can be changed to a line graph over time by clicking the bottom right icon. Given the events of the last 24 hours, and what may be a muted tone for the remainder of the campaign, I thought it might be worth analysing how the votes on this poll have been allocated on a daily basis since the start of June.

Apart from the 9th of June, the 2000 plus votes added each day have been pretty consistently around the 80% mark for leave. The votes so far today seem in line with recent days.

SouthamObserver said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

SouthamObserver said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

SouthamObserver said:

another_richard said:

PlatoSaid said:

FF43 said:

another_richard said:

RealBritain said:

But - and yes, there is a but - Leavers nee......
Yes.

....
o do.

There is nothing more zero it out."

When you elect representatives, one lot is basically as good as another. It isn't as stark.

Cobblers - instead.

We it - in spades.

They on and on.

That's not grown-up politics, it's childish and insulting.

Not forgetting carrot-crunchers, football hooligans, people in semis in Watford and of course this:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3609357/Operation-Black-Vote-unveils-controversial-referendum-poster-comparing-Asian-woman-angry-white-thug-Nigel-Farage-claims-goes-far.html

The Stuart Rose / Emily Thornberry mentality is never short of intolerance and demonisation of people different to themselves.

Britain is not going to be a happy place now that it has discovered what it thinks of other parts of it.

The feckless poor, scroungers, underclass, Chavs, the client state and so on. And that's before we get onto trade unionists and public sector workers.

You are so full of poison for these people "from the right" that I worry for your sanity. Do you ever smile, have fun or eat chocolate?

I do. least.

I am off to see my working class father in hospital. Being concerned about the working class is not something new to me. Think about it before you issue a wide smear. Instead of being on here, why not go out and cheer up someone else?

It was not a wide smear, it was a very specific observation: "I feel nothing but contempt for right wingers who have suddenly discovered that the working class have been having a pretty crap time of it for a number of years". I did not say all right wingers. I was very careful to qualify it.

tlg86 said:

Sandpit said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Pulpstar said:

Reposting from another (investing) forum that analyses Brexit etc: (P2P)

The poster knows his onions...

A few days ago I posted a link to an online poll showing an unbelievable 81% Leave vote www.pollstation.uk/eu-referendum/poll/ which is now up to c. 133,000 votes. Clearly the types of people finding and responding to that poll (I found it via a link on a broadsheet comment section) are not the average demographic that the polling agencies have so carefully constructed.

The bar graph on that page can be changed to a line graph over time by clicking the bottom right icon. Given the events of the last 24 hours, and what may be a muted tone for the remainder of the campaign, I thought it might be worth analysing how the votes on this poll have been allocated on a daily basis since the start of June.

Apart from the 9th of June, the 2000 plus votes added each day have been pretty consistently around the 80% mark for leave. The votes so far today seem in line with recent days.

Surely this is just a voodoo poll.

Wouldn't let me vote as I'm not in the UK. Looks like a voodoo poll though, has a self-selecting participation. Oh, and it says 81/16/3 which is way out of line with anything else!

I don't think that's the point Pulpstar is making. The point is today has been no different to any other day. Perhaps the 81% are the sort of Leavers that won't let anything affect them, but the insinuation is that if the murder was to have an affect it would have shown up - if only very slightly - in that poll.

Wanderer said:

Sean_F said:

Casino_Royale said:

TGOHF said:

marke09 said:

http://www.breitbart.com/london/2016/06/17/project-mourn-remains-dirty-politicking-has-hit-an-all-time-low/

is complaining about politicisation actually politicisation ?

It's quite brilliant though, isn't it?

There's no possible reasonable objection Vote Leave can make to this that doesn't risk them looking paranoid, bitter or insensitive. So there is no choice but to accept it.

Meanwhile, the airwaves can be dominated with words like 'unity', 'no to division', and little nods to the far-right and EU ref. Monday is even better because 3/4 of all MPs are Remainers and you can bet your bottom dollar some will use the recall of parliament to make full-throated attacks on Leave that the BBC will cover.

It's effectively a new form of the pre-purdah period (when Remain had the upper hand) and, at the same time, Remain can now appeal to heart rather than just fear. Something they've singularly lacked for months.

It's brilliant. And very dangerous.

I think it comes too late to make much difference, and Remain needed to be campaigning hard to recover lost ground.

I think that's right. The great majority of people are going to see this as solemn words from MPs after one of their number has been murdered. They won't decode it into a subliminal "vote Remain". Meanwhile Leave is ahead and the clock is running down.

Casino_Royale said:

SouthamObserver said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

SouthamObserver said:

another_richard said:

PlatoSaid said:

FF43 said:

another_richard said:

RealBritain said:

"I completely understand that Leavers feel very upset about any linkage between the referendum campaign and Jo Cox's death. Whatever her killer's motives, he and he alone is responsible for his actions.

But - and yes, there is a but - Leavers nee......
Yes.

We are in an era of demonization on all sides.

Politics is now a zero sum game - for your side to gain the people on the other side need to lose.

Its 'take it from them and give it to me'.

And ed.

Even better if they can be successfully demonised then taking from them becomes the 'righteous' thing to do.

There is nothing more zero it out."

When you elect representatives, one lot is basically as good as another. It isn't as stark.

Cobblers - instead.

We it - in spades.

They on and on.

That's not grown-up politics, it's childish and insulting.

Not forgetting carrot-crunchers, football hooligans, people in semis in Watford and of course this:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3609357/Operation-Black-Vote-unveils-controversial-referendum-poster-comparing-Asian-woman-angry-white-thug-Nigel-Farage-claims-goes-far.html

The Stuart Rose / Emily Thornberry mentality is never short of intolerance and demonisation of people different to themselves.

Britain is not going to be a happy place now that it has discovered what it thinks of other parts of it.

The

You are so full of poison for these people "from the right" that I worry for your sanity. Do you ever smile, have fun or eat chocolate?

I do. But you are correct that I feel nothing but contempt for right wingers who have suddenly discovered that the working class have been having a pretty crap time of it for a number of years. And the idea that when Boris, Priti and co do take over they are going to be remotely concerned about people whose votes they no longer need and whose lives they know nothing about is far-fetched to say the least.

Hang about. A couple of weeks ago I posted on here saying how my experiences of the poorest (through campaigning on some of the poorest estates and listening to them) had changed my mind and I now feel much more affinity and sympathy for them.

Now you hold me in contempt?

KentRising said:

During this farcical armistice, what's to stop someone just going out and leafleting? How will Not Campaigning be policed?

Vote Remain are continuing with their street stalls under the guise of opening condolence books. Surely that means Vote Leave will be doing the same? Does that mean all political leaflets have to be - quite literally - off the (trestle) table? Perhaps the leaflets can be on a neighbouring table, there if anyone wants one, but not being proactively handed out?

Expect stories over the weekend of one side or the other breaking the No Campaigning Armistice is some way shape or form, as one side tries to smear the other with callousness/cynicism etc.

Alanbrooke said:

SouthamObserver said:

John_M said:

SouthamObserver said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

SouthamObserver said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

SouthamObserver said:

another_richard said:

PlatoSaid said:

FF43 said:

another_richard said:

RealBritain said:

But - and yes, there is a but - Leavers nee......
Yes.

....
o do.

There is nothing more zero it out."

When you elect representatives, one lot is basically as good as another. It isn't as stark.

Cobblers - instead.

We it - in spades.

They on and on.

That's not grown-up politics, it's childish and insulting.

Not forgetting carrot-crunchers, football hooligans, people in semis in Watford and of course this:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3609357/Operation-Black-Vote-unveils-controversial-referendum-poster-comparing-Asian-woman-angry-white-thug-Nigel-Farage-claims-goes-far.html

The Stuart Rose / Emily Thornberry mentality is never short of intolerance and demonisation of people different to themselves.

Britain is not going to be a happy place now that it has discovered what it thinks of other parts of it.

The feckless poor, scroungers, underclass, Chavs, the client state and so on. And that's before we get onto trade unionists and public sector workers.

You are so full of poison for these people "from the right" that I worry for your sanity. Do you ever smile, have fun or eat chocolate?

I do. least.

I am off to see my working class father in hospital. Being concerned about the working class is not something new to me. Think about it before you issue a wide smear. Instead of being on here, why not go out and cheer up someone else?

It was not a wide smear, it was a very specific observation: I was very careful to qualify it.

You know we've discussed labels dating from the early 20th century.

I'm not sure what point I'm trying to make here, except we're showing up the idea of a classless society as being the great steaming pile of ordure it always was.

Yeah, it's still all about class.

but increasingly class isnt about money its about attitude and values

Sean_F said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

There seems to be an increasing narrative from labour that this was a hate crime and most labour politician seems to be trying to tie it in with Farage and his poster. I cannot stand the man but Alastair Campbell directly levered into an interview on Sky and the International coverage is doing the same. Whether it is fair or not I believe with more information coming out about the alleged assassin over the next few days and with the HOC tribute on Monday it may just be that Farage could have lost this for leave from a winning position. Indeed the betting and money markets seem to be indicating a more likely result will be remain. My own personal view is that leave may just win but it is less certain than it was and I also believe that any polls researched before yesterday's terrible events need to be considered with caution

I can't imagine anything more likely to put the backs up people who are contemplating a vote for Leave. Especially, Labour voters.

Alanbrooke said:

SouthamObserver said:

John_M said:

SouthamObserver said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

SouthamObserver said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

SouthamObserver said:

another_richard said:

PlatoSaid said:

FF43 said:

another_richard said:

RealBritain said:

But - and yes, there is a but - Leavers nee......
Yes.

....
o do.

There is nothing more zero it out."

When you elect representatives, one lot is basically as good as another. It isn't as stark.

Cobblers - instead.

We it - in spades.

They on and on.

That's not grown-up politics, it's childish and insulting.

Not forgetting carrot-crunchers, football hooligans, people in semis in Watford and of course this:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3609357/Operation-Black-Vote-unveils-controversial-referendum-poster-comparing-Asian-woman-angry-white-thug-Nigel-Farage-claims-goes-far.html

The Stuart Rose / Emily Thornberry mentality is never short of intolerance and demonisation of people different to themselves.

Britain is not going to be a happy place now that it has discovered what it thinks of other parts of it.

The feckless poor, scroungers, underclass, Chavs, the client state and so on. And that's before we get onto trade unionists and public sector workers.

You are so full of poison for these people "from the right" that I worry for your sanity. Do you ever smile, have fun or eat chocolate?

I do. least.

I am else?

It was not a wide smear, it was a very specific observation: I was very careful to qualify it.

You know we've discussed labels dating from the early 20th century.

I'm not sure what point I'm trying to make here, except we're showing up the idea of a classless society as being the great steaming pile of ordure it always was.

Yeah, it's still all about class.

but increasingly class isnt about money its about attitude and values

Ray_Finch said:

EPG said:

Ray_Finch said:

I think a 16% Guardian readership, higher than any other than the Mail, means it may be not entirely well sampled.

FF43 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

British voters are deeply and evenly divided about whether to quit the European Union in next week's historic vote, according to a NBC News/SurveyMonkey U.K. poll.

The new poll has the historic vote as a toss-up: 48 percent of Britons say they'll cast a vote to "Leave" the EU in the referendum known as "Brexit," and an identical 48 percent prefer to "Remain." A mere 4 percent are undecided just a week before the June 23 vote.

http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/brexit-referendum/poll-british-voters-split-brexit-think-eu-exit-vote-will-n594086

Is this a properly sampled and weighted poll?

Isn't the Guardian the second-most read newspaper in the UK after the Mail? Online, of course, not the small dead-tree figures.

I have Mail/Mirror/Telegraph/Guardian
As of last year. Cant find more recent.
http://www.pressgazette.co.uk/nrs-daily-mail-most-popular-uk-newspaper-print-and-online-23m-readers-month/

rottenborough said:

KentRising said:

During this farcical armistice, what's to stop someone just going out and leafleting? How will Not Campaigning be policed?

Vote Remain are continuing with their street stalls under the guise of opening condolence books. Surely that means Vote Leave will be doing the same? Does that mean all political leaflets have to be - quite literally - off the (trestle) table? Perhaps the leaflets can be on a neighbouring table, there if anyone wants one, but not being proactively handed out?

Expect stories over the weekend of one side or the other breaking the No Campaigning Armistice is some way shape or form, as one side tries to smear the other with callousness/cynicism etc.

Remain have said that individuals can continue to leaflet their local streets, but they will not be campaigning on street stalls and rally events i.e. they will not be badgering the public in the street when obviously very few people are in the mood to talk EU.

Seems reasonable to me.

HYUFD said:

SouthamObserver said:

KentRising said:

SouthamObserver said:

Completely agree. This is not about left or right, it is about class. The middle class establishment - Leave and Remain - has shown it knows nothing about and cares very little for working class voters. They are the punch-bags of this country and will continue to be so. The truth is that the working class's problem is that it is now nowhere near 50% of the population. It is not important politically in normal circumstances and so can be safely ignored. It is Mondeo man who matters, or Worcester woman; not people that live in sink estates in Leeds, Liverpool or London. They either do not vote or live in very safe Labour constituencies. It's the nature of a referendum - no constituencies, a binary choice - that has given the working class its day in the sun. On 24th June they will be forgotten or despised once more.

The establishment is not middle class. It is a class of its own, that thinks itself superior to the middle classes and all other classes.

I'd say it is. The upper class aristocracy is pretty marginal these days. It has fallen to various strands of the middle class to help out - public school boys and girls mostly in all the major parties. And you'll find pretty much the same at the top of the media, the judiciary, the armed services and so on.

The division is more upper middle class, lower middle class and working class

Casino_Royale said:

SouthamObserver said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

SouthamObserver said:

another_richard said:

PlatoSaid said:

FF43 said:

another_richard said:

RealBritain said:

"I completely understand that Leavers feel very upset about any linkage between the referendum campaign and Jo Cox's death. Whatever her killer's motives, he and he alone is responsible for his actions.

But - and yes, there is a but - Leavers nee......
Yes.

We are in an era of demonization on all sides.

Politics is now a zero sum game - for your side to gain the people on the other side need to lose.

Its 'take it from them and give it to me'.

And ed.

Even better if they can be successfully demonised then taking from them becomes the 'righteous' thing to do.

There is nothing more zero it out."

When you elect representatives, one lot is basically as good as another. It isn't as stark.

Cobblers - instead.

We it - in spades.

They on and on.

That's not grown-up politics, it's childish and insulting.

Not forgetting carrot-crunchers, football hooligans, people in semis in Watford and of course this:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3609357/Operation-Black-Vote-unveils-controversial-referendum-poster-comparing-Asian-woman-angry-white-thug-Nigel-Farage-claims-goes-far.html

The Stuart Rose / Emily Thornberry mentality is never short of intolerance and demonisation of people different to themselves.

Britain is not going to be a happy place now that it has discovered what it thinks of other parts of it.

The

You are so full of poison for these people "from the right" that I worry for your sanity. Do you ever smile, have fun or eat chocolate?

I do.

Hang about. A couple of weeks ago I posted on here saying how my experiences of the poorest (through campaigning on some of the poorest estates and listening to them) had changed my mind and I now feel much more affinity and sympathy for them.

Now you hold me in contempt?

David_Evershed said:

REMAIN can now safely campaign on immigration.

REMAIN have emailed me Jo Cox's article in the Yorkshire Post about why Brexit is not the answer to concerns about immigration.

http://www.yorkshirepost.co.uk/news/opinion/jo-cox-brexit-is-no-answer-to-real-concerns-on-immigration-1-7956822

AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

John_M said:

MarqueeMark said:

AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

Anecdote alert (Scottish edition):

Out with friends for a fortifying drink last night. All early 40s, professional jobs. Balance of Yes/No voters in Indyref. All voting Remain.

Very worried about EU ref as their parents (all were indyref No voters) had already postal voted, or were planning to vote Leave and were pretty passionate about it. Affluent central Scotland middle class types.

You think 2 or 3 Leavers in that company are going to admit to it?

I think we have to respect anecdota. If I was a professional middle class person in (say) my 30s with children and a mortgage I'd be voting Remain. Family before country. Country before party. Entirely rational and respectable.

The Indyref No voters were extremely vociferous in telling me why there were voting No at the time, and thought I was stark raving mad for voting Yes. We've been friends for 20+ years and we have very robust dialogue about politics. They are not shrinking violets.

The more crucial thing is middle class parents (mostly aged over 70) unanimously voting Leave. Doubt we'll see a thumping Remain vote, as per early polls. Might be more of an Indyref style 55-45 split, which wouldn't keep Remain afloat.

SouthamObserver said:

Not so sure about that, though I get where you are coming from. I reckon it's easier to move up class-wise thanks to becoming better off than it is to move down because you don't have any money. A poverty stricken Lord is still a member of the upper class no matter what, but I'd say that - generally speaking - if you earn at or around the 40% tax rate you can't really be working class, whatever your attitudes.

EPG said:

HYUFD said:

SouthamObserver said:

KentRising said:

SouthamObserver said:

Completely agree. This is not about left or right, it is about class. The middle class establishment - Leave and Remain - has shown it knows nothing about and cares very little for working class voters. They are the punch-bags of this country and will continue to be so. The truth is that the working class's problem is that it is now nowhere near 50% of the population. It is not important politically in normal circumstances and so can be safely ignored. It is Mondeo man who matters, or Worcester woman; not people that live in sink estates in Leeds, Liverpool or London. They either do not vote or live in very safe Labour constituencies. It's the nature of a referendum - no constituencies, a binary choice - that has given the working class its day in the sun. On 24th June they will be forgotten or despised once more.

The establishment is not middle class. It is a class of its own, that thinks itself superior to the middle classes and all other classes.

I'd say it is. The upper class aristocracy is pretty marginal these days. It has fallen to various strands of the middle class to help out - public school boys and girls mostly in all the major parties. And you'll find pretty much the same at the top of the media, the judiciary, the armed services and so on.

The division is more upper middle class, lower middle class and working class

Well there are the broad ranks of the upper middle class, guys who work in banks and women who are accountants and so on. And there is the upper middle class that doesn't have as much income but has lots of cultural capital and lives in Hampstead and writes for LRB or Guardian. And then there is the upper middle class who went to private schools and sits at the top of the armed forces, judiciary, sports, civil service, the Conservative Party, and even British Hollywood. I imagine all three have divergent views on the referendum alone never mind other topics.

HYUFD said:

AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

John_M said:

MarqueeMark said:

AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

Anecdote alert (Scottish edition):

Out with friends for a fortifying drink last night. All early 40s, professional jobs. Balance of Yes/No voters in Indyref. All voting Remain.

Very worried about EU ref as their parents (all were indyref No voters) had already postal voted, or were planning to vote Leave and were pretty passionate about it. Affluent central Scotland middle class types.

You think 2 or 3 Leavers in that company are going to admit to it?

I think we have to respect anecdota. If I was a professional middle class person in (say) my 30s with children and a mortgage I'd be voting Remain. Family before country. Country before party. Entirely rational and respectable.

The Indyref No voters were extremely vociferous in telling me why there were voting No at the time, and thought I was stark raving mad for voting Yes. We've been friends for 20+ years and we have very robust dialogue about politics. They are not shrinking violets.

The more crucial thing is middle class parents (mostly aged over 70) unanimously voting Leave. Doubt we'll see a thumping Remain vote, as per early polls. Might be more of an Indyref style 55-45 split, which wouldn't keep Remain afloat.

Most polls have at least 60% voting Leave in Scotland

Ray_Finch said:

EPG said:

Ray_Finch said:

EPG said:

Ray_Finch said:

I think a 16% Guardian readership, higher than any other than the Mail, means it may be not entirely well sampled.

FF43 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

British voters are deeply and evenly divided about whether to quit the European Union in next week's historic vote, according to a NBC News/SurveyMonkey U.K. poll.

The new poll has the historic vote as a toss-up: 48 percent of Britons say they'll cast a vote to "Leave" the EU in the referendum known as "Brexit," and an identical 48 percent prefer to "Remain." A mere 4 percent are undecided just a week before the June 23 vote.

http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/brexit-referendum/poll-british-voters-split-brexit-think-eu-exit-vote-will-n594086

Is this a properly sampled and weighted poll?

Isn't the Guardian the second-most read newspaper in the UK after the Mail? Online, of course, not the small dead-tree figures.

I have Mail/Mirror/Telegraph/Guardian
As of last year. Cant find more recent.
http://www.pressgazette.co.uk/nrs-daily-mail-most-popular-uk-newspaper-print-and-online-23m-readers-month/

Thank you. So Mirror/Telegraph/Guardian are roughly tied, with a clear lead for the MailOnline, and a less clear gap between 2-4 and Metro which outranks the Sun. In particular, the much-vaunted Times is nowhere. I must have just seen the Computer figures at some point in the past.

Seems odd to me. However the charging models for various online editions must change the scores as they vary over time.

AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

John_M said:

MarqueeMark said:

AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

Anecdote alert (Scottish edition):

Out with friends for a fortifying drink last night. All early 40s, professional jobs. Balance of Yes/No voters in Indyref. All voting Remain.

Very worried about EU ref as their parents (all were indyref No voters) had already postal voted, or were planning to vote Leave and were pretty passionate about it. Affluent central Scotland middle class types.

You think 2 or 3 Leavers in that company are going to admit to it?

I think we have to respect anecdota. If I was a professional middle class person in (say) my 30s with children and a mortgage I'd be voting Remain. Family before country. Country before party. Entirely rational and respectable.

The Indyref No voters were extremely vociferous in telling me why there were voting No at the time, and thought I was stark raving mad for voting Yes. We've been friends for 20+ years and we have very robust dialogue about politics. They are not shrinking violets.

The more crucial thing is middle class parents (mostly aged over 70) unanimously voting Leave. Doubt we'll see a thumping Remain vote, as per early polls. Might be more of an Indyref style 55-45 split, which wouldn't keep Remain afloat.

AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

HYUFD said:

AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

John_M said:

MarqueeMark said:

AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

Anecdote alert (Scottish edition):

Out with friends for a fortifying drink last night. All early 40s, professional jobs. Balance of Yes/No voters in Indyref. All voting Remain.

Very worried about EU ref as their parents (all were indyref No voters) had already postal voted, or were planning to vote Leave and were pretty passionate about it. Affluent central Scotland middle class types.

You think 2 or 3 Leavers in that company are going to admit to it?

I think we have to respect anecdota. If I was a professional middle class person in (say) my 30s with children and a mortgage I'd be voting Remain. Family before country. Country before party. Entirely rational and respectable.

The Indyref No voters were extremely vociferous in telling me why there were voting No at the time, and thought I was stark raving mad for voting Yes. We've been friends for 20+ years and we have very robust dialogue about politics. They are not shrinking violets.

The more crucial thing is middle class parents (mostly aged over 70) unanimously voting Leave. Doubt we'll see a thumping Remain vote, as per early polls. Might be more of an Indyref style 55-45 split, which wouldn't keep Remain afloat.

Most polls have at least 60% voting Leave in Scotland

There was an STV Ipsos Mori only yesterday morning showing 53% Remain (down 13 points).

TheScreamingEagles said:

Casino_Royale said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Alanbrooke said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Just completed an Opinium EURef poll

did it ask you which of the two conservative parties you'd vote for ?

Sadly not. I spent last night contemplating life outside of the Tory party.

Don't go.

If Farage joins/is ennobled/becomes a member of a post Leave Tory led government, I'm outta here

John_M said:

AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

John_M said:

MarqueeMark said:

AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

Anecdote alert (Scottish edition):

Out with friends for a fortifying drink last night. All early 40s, professional jobs. Balance of Yes/No voters in Indyref. All voting Remain.

Very worried about EU ref as their parents (all were indyref No voters) had already postal voted, or were planning to vote Leave and were pretty passionate about it. Affluent central Scotland middle class types.

You think 2 or 3 Leavers in that company are going to admit to it?

I think we have to respect anecdota. If I was a professional middle class person in (say) my 30s with children and a mortgage I'd be voting Remain. Family before country. Country before party. Entirely rational and respectable.

The Indyref No voters were extremely vociferous in telling me why there were voting No at the time, and thought I was stark raving mad for voting Yes. We've been friends for 20+ years and we have very robust dialogue about politics. They are not shrinking violets.

The more crucial thing is middle class parents (mostly aged over 70) unanimously voting Leave. Doubt we'll see a thumping Remain vote, as per early polls. Might be more of an Indyref style 55-45 split, which wouldn't keep Remain afloat.

That's very interesting. We've talked about the difficulties if Scotland keeps England in the EU. It would be ironic if Scotland actually ends up pushing England over the finish line

rcs1000 said:

HYUFD said:

SouthamObserver said:

Alanbrooke said:

SouthamObserver said:

John_M said:

SouthamObserver said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

SouthamObserver said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

SouthamObserver said:

another_richard said:

PlatoSaid said:

FF43 said:

another_richard said:

RealBritain said:

But - and yes, there is a but - Leavers nee......
Yes.

....
o do.

There is nothing more zero it out."

When you elect representatives, one lot is basically as good as another. It isn't as stark.

Cobblers - instead.

We it - in spades.

They on and on.

That's not grown-up politics, it's childish and insulting.

Not forgetting carrot-crunchers, football hooligans, people in semis in Watford and of course this:

http://ww

The feckless poor, scroungers, underclass, Chavs, the client state and so on. And that's before we get onto trade unionists and public sector workers.

You are so full of poison for these people "from the right" that I worry for your sanity. Do you ever smile, have fun or eat chocolate?

I do. least.

I am else?

It was not a wide smear, it was a very specific observation: I was very careful to qualify it.

You know we've discussed labels dating from ths.

Yeah, it's still all about class.

but increasingly class isnt about money its about attitude and values

Not so sure about that, though I get where you are coming from. I reckon it's easier to move up class-wise thanks to becoming better off than it is to move down because you don't have any money. A poverty stricken Lord is still a member of the upper class no matter what, but I'd say that - generally speaking - if you earn at or around the 40% tax rate you can't really be working class, whatever your attitudes.

I believe the Earl of Cardigan was claiming JSA and training as a truck driver after he lost his family home

Where did he lose it? People should keep an eye out for it.

justin124 said:

KentRising said:

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

Wanderer said:

I don't think post-murder polls will tell us much about its impact. It takes a few days for events to feed into voting intention. But (at risk of repeating myself) I don't think it will have much effect anyway.

If my real life conversations today are anything to go by, no effect.

Football and Brexit (as if yesterday didn't happen)

Just a couple of odd afterthought comments about the late MP. Has impacted about as much as a news report about a victim of a fatal accident on the M1

Its not as if anyone outside politics had ever heard of her until this kicked off

The BBC News website is bordering on the farcical. If Diana had died during the internet age, I don't think you would have seen much more coverage.

13 stories - including a rolling news feed and 'In Pictures'
5 videos - including of a little girl crying at the murder scene; and a Canadian MP crying

I see Labour have opened a book of condolence. Will there be one in every town? Was there one for Lee Rigby?

It's unseemly. The Westminster and media elite have circled the wagons.

Surely Diana did die in the internet age! Sept 1997 PCs were pretty common by that time!

justin124 said:

KentRising said:

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

Wanderer said:

I don't think post-murder polls will tell us much about its impact. It takes a few days for events to feed into voting intention. But (at risk of repeating myself) I don't think it will have much effect anyway.

If my real life conversations today are anything to go by, no effect.

Football and Brexit (as if yesterday didn't happen)

Just a couple of odd afterthought comments about the late MP. Has impacted about as much as a news report about a victim of a fatal accident on the M1

Its not as if anyone outside politics had ever heard of her until this kicked off

The BBC News website is bordering on the farcical. If Diana had died during the internet age, I don't think you would have seen much more coverage.

13 stories - including a rolling news feed and 'In Pictures'
5 videos - including of a little girl crying at the murder scene; and a Canadian MP crying

I see Labour have opened a book of condolence. Will there be one in every town? Was there one for Lee Rigby?

It's unseemly. The Westminster and media elite have circled the wagons.

Surely Diana did die in the internet age! Sept 1997 PCs were pretty common by that time!

Norm said:

John_M said:

AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

John_M said:

MarqueeMark said:

AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

Anecdote alert (Scottish edition):

Out with friends for a fortifying drink last night. All early 40s, professional jobs. Balance of Yes/No voters in Indyref. All voting Remain.

Very worried about EU ref as their parents (all were indyref No voters) had already postal voted, or were planning to vote Leave and were pretty passionate about it. Affluent central Scotland middle class types.

You think 2 or 3 Leavers in that company are going to admit to it?

I think we have to respect anecdota. If I was a professional middle class person in (say) my 30s with children and a mortgage I'd be voting Remain. Family before country. Country before party. Entirely rational and respectable.

The Indyref No voters were extremely vociferous in telling me why there were voting No at the time, and thought I was stark raving mad for voting Yes. We've been friends for 20+ years and we have very robust dialogue about politics. They are not shrinking violets.

The more crucial thing is middle class parents (mostly aged over 70) unanimously voting Leave. Doubt we'll see a thumping Remain vote, as per early polls. Might be more of an Indyref style 55-45 split, which wouldn't keep Remain afloat.

That's very interesting. We've talked about the difficulties if Scotland keeps England in the EU. It would be ironic if Scotland actually ends up pushing England over the finish line

I read somewhere and Malcolm seemed to confirm it on here that the Scots are far less concerned about this referendum than those of us south of the border. As a result it is thought that turnout might be lower here than elsewhere.

SouthamObserver said:

You know what, it's been a shitty week. Sorry if I've upset people, been rude to them or been unpleasant. I know I have been. It's not how I really am, honestly :-)

It's time to take a chill pill. And to think before posting stuff. I wish red wine did not give me hangovers. I'd have a few glasses now.

I'll try to be better.

Pax.

AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

Norm said:

John_M said:

AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

John_M said:

MarqueeMark said:

AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

Anecdote alert (Scottish edition):

Out with friends for a fortifying drink last night. All early 40s, professional jobs. Balance of Yes/No voters in Indyref. All voting Remain.

Very worried about EU ref as their parents (all were indyref No voters) had already postal voted, or were planning to vote Leave and were pretty passionate about it. Affluent central Scotland middle class types.

You think 2 or 3 Leavers in that company are going to admit to it?

I think we have to respect anecdota. If I was a professional middle class person in (say) my 30s with children and a mortgage I'd be voting Remain. Family before country. Country before party. Entirely rational and respectable.

The Indyref No voters were extremely vociferous in telling me why there were voting No at the time, and thought I was stark raving mad for voting Yes. We've been friends for 20+ years and we have very robust dialogue about politics. They are not shrinking violets.

The more crucial thing is middle class parents (mostly aged over 70) unanimously voting Leave. Doubt we'll see a thumping Remain vote, as per early polls. Might be more of an Indyref style 55-45 split, which wouldn't keep Remain afloat.

That's very interesting. We've talked about the difficulties if Scotland keeps England in the EU. It would be ironic if Scotland actually ends up pushing England over the finish line

I read somewhere and Malcolm seemed to confirm it on here that the Scots are far less concerned about this referendum than those of us south of the border. As a result it is thought that turnout might be lower here than elsewhere.

I work frequently in the North East of England and there are posters/placards everywhere as I'm driving to meetings. I saw my first EU ref poster yesterday on this side of the Border. Battle fatigue has probably set in after a 2 year referendum campaign, a GE and a Holyrood election only a few weeks ago.

surbiton said:

Very little discussion on Tooting by-election. Labour keeps on winning by-elections with big swings.

Apparently, Tooting was being gentrified and, therefore, should vote Tory.

HYUFD said:

SouthamObserver said:

You know what, it's been a shitty week. Sorry if I've upset people, been rude to them or been unpleasant. I know I have been. It's not how I really am, honestly :-)

It's time to take a chill pill. And to think before posting stuff. I wish red wine did not give me hangovers. I'd have a few glasses now.

I'll try to be better.

Pax.

In one week it will all be over and no more national elections of significance in the UK until the county council elections next year

SouthamObserver said:

You know what, it's been a shitty week. Sorry if I've upset people, been rude to them or been unpleasant. I know I have been. It's not how I really am, honestly :-)

It's time to take a chill pill. And to think before posting stuff. I wish red wine did not give me hangovers. I'd have a few glasses now.

I'll try to be better.

Pax.

RodCrosby said:

PlatoSaid said:

AFP
#Brexit: French minister says Britain has taken EU hostage https://t.co/3LMtQw1Td7 https://t.co/eftB8NZOn6

@AFP "If Britain voted to leave, the EU would need to act fast to avoid other countries starting a similar process."

Freedom is contagious. Let Britannia lead the way!

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/d/dd/Britannia-Statue.jpg>

Casino_Royale said:

SouthamObserver said:

You know what, it's been a shitty week. Sorry if I've upset people, been rude to them or been unpleasant. I know I have been. It's not how I really am, honestly :-)

It's time to take a chill pill. And to think before posting stuff. I wish red wine did not give me hangovers. I'd have a few glasses now.

I'll try to be better.

Pax.

I've been an arse this week too, and my emotions have been all over the place.

My apologies.

Norm said:

AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

Norm said:

John_M said:

AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

John_M said:

MarqueeMark said:

AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

Anecdote alert (Scottish edition):

Out with friends for a fortifying drink last night. All early 40s, professional jobs. Balance of Yes/No voters in Indyref. All voting Remain.

Very worried about EU ref as their parents (all were indyref No voters) had already postal voted, or were planning to vote Leave and were pretty passionate about it. Affluent central Scotland middle class types.

You think 2 or 3 Leavers in that company are going to admit to it?

I think we have to respect anecdota. If I was a professional middle class person in (say) my 30s with children and a mortgage I'd be voting Remain. Family before country. Country before party. Entirely rational and respectable.

The Indyref No voters were extremely vociferous in telling me why there were voting No at the time, and thought I was stark raving mad for voting Yes. We've been friends for 20+ years and we have very robust dialogue about politics. They are not shrinking violets.

The more crucial thing is middle class parents (mostly aged over 70) unanimously voting Leave. Doubt we'll see a thumping Remain vote, as per early polls. Might be more of an Indyref style 55-45 split, which wouldn't keep Remain afloat.

That's very interesting. We've talked about the difficulties if Scotland keeps England in the EU. It would be ironic if Scotland actually ends up pushing England over the finish line

I read somewhere and Malcolm seemed to confirm it on here that the Scots are far less concerned about this referendum than those of us south of the border. As a result it is thought that turnout might be lower here than elsewhere.

I work frequently in the North East of England and there are posters/placards everywhere as I'm driving to meetings. I saw my first EU ref poster yesterday on this side of the Border. Battle fatigue has probably set in after a 2 year referendum campaign, a GE and a Holyrood election only a few weeks ago.

As a matter of interest are the NE England private placards mainly Leave or Remain or a roughly even split?

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Royale, just a few more days and it'll be over