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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Roger on a step change in negative political advertising

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  • Options
    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,977
    On topic - Immigration was always going to win it for Leave. Lying about marauding Turks was a masterstroke.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,990
    TudorRose said:

    Mr. Sandpit, that doesn't inspire confidence.

    On the by-election, others not contesting it, if that's happening, is entirely wrong. The whole point of democracy is that people get a choice.

    But they shouldn't be in a position where they have to make a choice.
    I'm 50/50 split on this one I think. Almost a heart vs. head thing.
  • Options
    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503

    Sandpit said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    IAAF isn't lifting ban on Russian athletes - oh dear.

    If they will miss the Olympics that's a huge story. Big cojones from an under-pressure Seb Coe.
    wow credit to Coe. watch out for pollonium
    I'm sure the Russians will respond to that in their usual measured fashion.
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,459

    Sandpit said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    IAAF isn't lifting ban on Russian athletes - oh dear.

    If they will miss the Olympics that's a huge story. Big cojones from an under-pressure Seb Coe.
    wow credit to Coe. watch out for pollonium
    Or rioting fans!
  • Options
    EstobarEstobar Posts: 558

    Sandpit said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    IAAF isn't lifting ban on Russian athletes - oh dear.

    If they will miss the Olympics that's a huge story. Big cojones from an under-pressure Seb Coe.
    credit to Coe.
    Not words that go together readily, unless you mean in a fiscal sense?
  • Options
    RobD said:

    What this does is illustrate just how much the political establishment care only about their own.

    Mother and daughter killed in Liverpool - meh

    MP killed - everything has to stop.

    Its clear where their priorities are. Themselves and themselves alone.

    You are clearly missing the symbolism of the murder of an MP.
    I'm aware of the symbolism.
    Which is why im fine with suspending yesterday and today. Anymore is OTT and shows how out of touch the political establishment is. It shows MPs care about themselves far more than us. Its not a good look.
  • Options
    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    RobD said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    SeanT said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    SeanT said:

    DanSmith said:

    SeanT said:

    @glw I don't think campaigning should be brought to a halt. But some of the huffing and pshawing about David Cameron's words to the nation on the subject are comprehensively missing the point that something awful has happened and we need humbly and carefully to be taking stock.

    We should be doing that when we know what happened currently we don't, bar the fact of the murder.
    Michael Crick is saying Mair will be charged under the Terrorism Act. That's significant
    I don't understand, it's murder.
    It's certainly great premise for a political thriller. Man commits weird but pivotal murder on verge of nation-changing referendum. Several "eye-witnesses" claim he said "Britain first" as he did the murdering.

    Then these witnesses dematerialise.

    After this the referendum campaign is entirely suspended for several crucial days, just as one side appears to have enormous momentum.

    Then the murderer is mysteriously charged with Terrorism, on the grounds that this will help the government

    I'm joking. I think. But... Who the F knows. The government is clearly desperate. How far would they go to get a win? I genuinely don't know any more. I can imagine tacit pressure on the CPS.
    Have the witnesses vanished? :o
    Didn't most of them turn out to be not there after all, but in traffic at the time, and then hear the rumour from the baker, via the butcher's dog, that the assailant had - or maybe had not - shouted 'Britain First' or 'Put Britain First'?
    Hm, I find it hard to believe they were all actually making it up.
    The media are finding it hard to locate any actual eye witnesses, rather than examples of mere hearsay, But I could be wrong.
    It all seemed to start with a tweet from somebody using Mary Crabapple or similar - that got picked up by M Eagles and then that hit Sky et al. I gather Ms Crabapple is a close friend of Laurie Penny. Both those tweets have been deleted.

    Jeremy Vine asked on Twitter where it all came from. No one seems to know.
    The Britain First quote? That was reported via an eyewitness, not just based on those tweets.
    There's a body of thought that it was only repeated by witnesses after it became a media meme. No one mentioned during the endless witness intvs on Sky at the time. I've no idea - just passing it on.
  • Options
    Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,324
    RobD said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    SeanT said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    SeanT said:

    DanSmith said:

    SeanT said:

    @glw I don't think campaigning should be brought to a halt. But some of the huffing and pshawing about David Cameron's words to the nation on the subject are comprehensively missing the point that something awful has happened and we need humbly and carefully to be taking stock.

    We should be doing that when we know what happened currently we don't, bar the fact of the murder.
    Michael Crick is saying Mair will be charged under the Terrorism Act. That's significant
    I don't understand, it's murder.
    It's certainly great premise for a political thriller. Man commits weird but pivotal murder on verge of nation-changing referendum. Several "eye-witnesses" claim he said "Britain first" as he did the murdering.

    Then these witnesses dematerialise.

    After this the referendum campaign is entirely suspended for several crucial days, just as one side appears to have enormous momentum.

    Then the murderer is mysteriously charged with Terrorism, on the grounds that this will help the government

    I'm joking. I think. But... Who the F knows. The government is clearly desperate. How far would they go to get a win? I genuinely don't know any more. I can imagine tacit pressure on the CPS.
    Have the witnesses vanished? :o
    Didn't most of them turn out to be not there after all, but in traffic at the time, and then hear the rumour from the baker, via the butcher's dog, that the assailant had - or maybe had not - shouted 'Britain First' or 'Put Britain First'?
    Hm, I find it hard to believe they were all actually making it up.
    The media are finding it hard to locate any actual eye witnesses, rather than examples of mere hearsay, But I could be wrong.
    It all seemed to start with a tweet from somebody using Mary Crabapple or similar - that got picked up by M Eagles and then that hit Sky et al. I gather Ms Crabapple is a close friend of Laurie Penny. Both those tweets have been deleted.

    Jeremy Vine asked on Twitter where it all came from. No one seems to know.
    The Britain First quote? That was reported via an eyewitness, not just based on those tweets.
    Yes, he appears to be a real human being and seems fairly clear about what he thought he'd heard:

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3646408/Gas-fitter-insists-Jo-Cox-killer-DID-shout-Britain-shot-MP-Testimony-closest-witness-murder-provides-compelling-account-death.html
  • Options
    glwglw Posts: 9,554
    stodge said:

    However, and hard though this may sound, the show must go on. The political process cannot be seen to be subverted or compromised (whether well-meaning or not). We live in a democratic society and ultimately that democracy functions through debate and elections.

    Whether or not they intend it the message that is being sent is this; murder an MP and you can stop political campaigning for days, and get an uncontested election.
  • Options
    LennonLennon Posts: 1,736

    Mr. Sandpit, that doesn't inspire confidence.

    On the by-election, others not contesting it, if that's happening, is entirely wrong. The whole point of democracy is that people get a choice.

    Even if it ends up being a bit of a Haltemprice 'odds and sods' election I am certain that someone other than Labour will contest it. I also totally disagree with the instant 'we won't contest' comments from the main parties - the whole point of democracy is that the people choose, and democracy should continue to be served - with a suitable 'pause' if helpful / appropriate. (ie I would quite understand the writ not being moved till after the summer)

    I also think that it is wrong to recall parliament, but that is a more nuanced decision, and whilst people comment on the Brighton bomb and conference still continuing (albeit in a sombre tone) - it seems different - the Conservative party were (by definition) all together and so could collectively grief and mourn and work through that together - in this case the emotional desire for parliamentarians to grief together makes the desire for them to gather together somewhat stronger. Just my two cents of course.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,941
    PlatoSaid said:

    Sandpit said:

    Are we really about to see someone elected to Parliament unopposed?

    Wasn't Martin Bell in his white suit one? Or near as like?
    He got a free run against the Tory, and three main parties don't usually stand against the Speaker, but UKIP did and a few independents.
    For a new Member to be elected unopposed is novel, and doesn't much sound much like democracy.
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,010
    Mr. Rose, I agree, but tragedies happen and can't be undone. I'm sure Labour will hold the seat easily, but the principle of giving people a choice is fundamental to democracy.

    Mr. Rising, it may also give the IMF an unresponded hit if they release another gloom-and-doom report right before the vote.

    Miss Plato, she must have blocked a lot of people over that. It was bloody hilarious.
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    EstobarEstobar Posts: 558
    Isn't the reason UKIP stand against the Speaker that they loathe John Bercow? I believe it's purely personal :)
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    MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584

    Agree with the other major parties not contesting the by-election. Murder of a sitting MP should not lead to an advantage to other parties.

    But I hope the campaigning will continue for the referendum. This decision is to important to be derailed by a moron.

  • Options
    madasafishmadasafish Posts: 659

    Terrible as it is for her family and friends, our MPs are going over the top.

    Ordinary citizens are brutally murdered every day under this lots watch. But you dont get normal civil life suspended for several days - even for public servants like policemen and soldiers putting themselves in harms way for the common good.

    I fear this just reinforces the out of touch 'one rule for them one rule for us' perception that is becoming ever more widespread

    Too true.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,990
    Sandpit said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Sandpit said:

    Are we really about to see someone elected to Parliament unopposed?

    Wasn't Martin Bell in his white suit one? Or near as like?
    He got a free run against the Tory, and three main parties don't usually stand against the Speaker, but UKIP did and a few independents.
    For a new Member to be elected unopposed is novel, and doesn't much sound much like democracy.
    I don't think anyone is suggesting it be unopposed. There will of course be Independent candidates.
  • Options
    MattWMattW Posts: 18,735
    RobD said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    SeanT said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    SeanT said:

    DanSmith said:

    SeanT said:

    @glw I don't think campaigning should be brought to a halt. But some of the huffing and pshawing about David Cameron's words to the nation on the subject are comprehensively missing the point that something awful has happened and we need humbly and carefully to be taking stock.

    We should be doing that when we know what happened currently we don't, bar the fact of the murder.
    Michael Crick is saying Mair will be charged under the Terrorism Act. That's significant
    I don't understand, it's murder.
    I'm joking. I think. But... Who the F knows. The government is clearly desperate. How far would they go to get a win? I genuinely don't know any more. I can imagine tacit pressure on the CPS.
    Have the witnesses vanished? :o
    Didn't most of them turn out to be not there after all, but in traffic at the time, and then hear the rumour from the baker, via the butcher's dog, that the assailant had - or maybe had not - shouted 'Britain First' or 'Put Britain First'?
    Hm, I find it hard to believe they were all actually making it up.
    The media are finding it hard to locate any actual eye witnesses, rather than examples of mere hearsay, But I could be wrong.
    It all seemed to start with a tweet from somebody using Mary Crabapple or similar - that got picked up by M Eagles and then that hit Sky et al. I gather Ms Crabapple is a close friend of Laurie Penny. Both those tweets have been deleted.

    Jeremy Vine asked on Twitter where it all came from. No one seems to know.
    The Britain First quote? That was reported via an eyewitness, not just based on those tweets.
    Penny and Crabapple?

    Penny has made a career out of tendentious tweets or colums at the "right" moment peddling partial or complete shit-stirring fictions. Prominent examples being rumours about water-cannon 10 minutes before one of those student demos, and from her sofa reporting the Riots in London.

    Crabapple when I last heard was a New York based artiste loosely covering the Occupidiots.

    I'd be interested in hearing more about this. There's some extraordinarily nastily cynical politicking going on.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,990
    edited June 2016
    glw said:

    stodge said:

    However, and hard though this may sound, the show must go on. The political process cannot be seen to be subverted or compromised (whether well-meaning or not). We live in a democratic society and ultimately that democracy functions through debate and elections.

    Whether or not they intend it the message that is being sent is this; murder an MP and you can stop political campaigning for days, and get an uncontested election.
    Only really useful if you think you are in a good position to be the candidate for the former MPs party. Being charged with murder may decrease chances of selection, however...
  • Options
    AlasdairAlasdair Posts: 72
    glw said:

    Five day of campaigning gone to mourn a novice backbench MP that most people have never heard of is a ludicrous over reaction.

    As you say, ludicrous.

    It shuts down the referendum debate at a crucial point. Will HMG move polling back to 30 June?
  • Options
    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,977
    Mortimer said:

    Roger said:

    Interesting article by Roger. He implies that Leave stumbled on to a potentially winning message more or less by accident. That might well be the case.


    My thought was that it was more or less an accident. Furthermore I think they were surprised that they got away with it.

    It has the look of someone going way over the top and expecting to be hammered for it.

    Because both sides are sharing so many players no one felt it appropriate to criticize which gave them the encouragement to continue.

    If Nick Griffin had produced it - or even Farage - they'd have been crucified.
    I'd been convinced from the start of this campaign that immigration was the key message that would allow a Leave win. As soon as I saw that PBB for Vote Leave I was convinced the polls would move.

    I'm afraid I can't agree with Roger. I have a large extended family in a poor area of Wales; both people and place have been largely forgotten by Britain. That sort of ad was directed at my family - it chimes perfectly with discontent I hear when visiting/they visit, and has taken the political classes who rely on safe-seatism entirely unawares.

    Yep. Sadly, leaving the EU will do absolutely nothing to help them and is likely to make things worse.

  • Options
    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    edited June 2016
    glw said:

    stodge said:

    However, and hard though this may sound, the show must go on. The political process cannot be seen to be subverted or compromised (whether well-meaning or not). We live in a democratic society and ultimately that democracy functions through debate and elections.

    Whether or not they intend it the message that is being sent is this; murder an MP and you can stop political campaigning for days, and get an uncontested election.
    Absolutely. It's the totally wrong message. However an MP meets their demise, the democratic process goes on. It's bigger than a single individual - no matter tragic the circumstances.
  • Options
    dugarbandierdugarbandier Posts: 2,596
    Estobar said:

    Sandpit said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    IAAF isn't lifting ban on Russian athletes - oh dear.

    If they will miss the Olympics that's a huge story. Big cojones from an under-pressure Seb Coe.
    credit to Coe.
    Not words that go together readily, unless you mean in a fiscal sense?
    credit for his actions now. in the past, maybe (probably) not.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,990
    MattW said:

    RobD said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    SeanT said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    SeanT said:

    DanSmith said:

    SeanT said:

    @glw I don't think campaigning should be brought to a halt. But some of the huffing and pshawing about David Cameron's words to the nation on the subject are comprehensively missing the point that something awful has happened and we need humbly and carefully to be taking stock.

    We should be doing that when we know what happened currently we don't, bar the fact of the murder.
    Michael Crick is saying Mair will be charged under the Terrorism Act. That's significant
    I don't understand, it's murder.
    I'm joking. I think. But... Who the F knows. The government is clearly desperate. How far would they go to get a win? I genuinely don't know any more. I can imagine tacit pressure on the CPS.
    Have the witnesses vanished? :o
    Didn't most of them turn out to be not there after all, but in traffic at the time, and then hear the rumour from the baker, via the butcher's dog, that the assailant had - or maybe had not - shouted 'Britain First' or 'Put Britain First'?
    Hm, I find it hard to believe they were all actually making it up.
    The media are finding it hard to locate any actual eye witnesses, rather than examples of mere hearsay, But I could be wrong.
    It all seemed to start with a tweet from somebody using Mary Crabapple or similar - that got picked up by M Eagles and then that hit Sky et al. I gather Ms Crabapple is a close friend of Laurie Penny. Both those tweets have been deleted.

    Jeremy Vine asked on Twitter where it all came from. No one seems to know.
    The Britain First quote? That was reported via an eyewitness, not just based on those tweets.
    Penny and Crabapple?

    Penny has made a career out of tendentious tweets or colums at the "right" moment peddling partial or complete shit-stirring fictions. Prominent examples being rumours about water-cannon 10 minutes before one of those student demos, and from her sofa reporting the Riots in London.

    Crabapple when I last heard was a New York based artiste loosely covering the Occupidiots.

    I'd be interested in hearing more about this. There's some extraordinarily nastily cynical politicking going on.
    Yes, but there were eyewitnesses quoted in the media. It isn't all based on some tweet.
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 25,028
    PlatoSaid said:



    There's a body of thought that it was only repeated by witnesses after it became a media meme. No one mentioned during the endless witness intvs on Sky at the time. I've no idea - just passing it on.

    Yep. From the daily mail yesterday

    Aamir Tahir, of The Dry Clean Centre, said the gunman was heard shouting 'Britain first'.
    He said: 'The lady I work with heard two loud bangs. I wish I was there because I would have tried to stop him.
    'Apparently the guy who did it shouted 'Britain first' and if I had been there I would have tackled him.

    note how it goes from fact to rumour within 3 sentences...
  • Options
    MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584

    Mr. Rose, I agree, but tragedies happen and can't be undone. I'm sure Labour will hold the seat easily, but the principle of giving people a choice is fundamental to democracy.

    Mr. Rising, it may also give the IMF an unresponded hit if they release another gloom-and-doom report right before the vote.

    Miss Plato, she must have blocked a lot of people over that. It was bloody hilarious.


    Labour could put two alternative candidates up, if all other major parties are withdrawing. Still allows for democracy.
  • Options
    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    PlatoSaid said:

    RobD said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    SeanT said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    SeanT said:

    DanSmith said:

    SeanT said:

    @glw I don't think campaigning should be brought to a halt. But some of the huffing and pshawing about David Cameron's words to the nation on the subject are comprehensively missing the point that something awful has happened and we need humbly and carefully to be taking stock.

    We should be doing that when we know what happened currently we don't, bar the fact of the murder.
    Michael Crick is saying Mair will be charged under the Terrorism Act. That's significant
    I don't understand, it's murder.


    Then these witnesses dematerialise.

    After this the referendum campaign is entirely suspended for several crucial days, just as one side appears to have enormous momentum.

    Then the murderer is mysteriously charged with Terrorism, on the grounds that this will help the government

    I'm joking. I think. But... Who the F knows. The government is clearly desperate. How far would they go to get a win? I genuinely don't know any more. I can imagine tacit pressure on the CPS.
    Have the witnesses vanished? :o
    Didn't most of them turn out to be not there after all, but in traffic at the time, and then hear the rumour from the baker, via the butcher's dog, that the assailant had - or maybe had not - shouted 'Britain First' or 'Put Britain First'?
    Hm, I find it hard to believe they were all actually making it up.
    The media are finding it hard to locate any actual eye witnesses, rather than examples of mere hearsay, But I could be wrong.
    It all seemed to start with a tweet from somebody using Mary Crabapple or similar - that got picked up by M Eagles and then that hit Sky et al. I gather Ms Crabapple is a close friend of Laurie Penny. Both those tweets have been deleted.

    Jeremy Vine asked on Twitter where it all came from. No one seems to know.
    The Britain First quote? That was reported via an eyewitness, not just based on those tweets.
    There's a body of thought that it was only repeated by witnesses after it became a media meme. No one mentioned during the endless witness intvs on Sky at the time. I've no idea - just passing it on.
    Of course, you are just passing it on with a mountain of scepticism.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,990
    eek said:

    PlatoSaid said:



    There's a body of thought that it was only repeated by witnesses after it became a media meme. No one mentioned during the endless witness intvs on Sky at the time. I've no idea - just passing it on.

    Yep. From the daily mail yesterday

    Aamir Tahir, of The Dry Clean Centre, said the gunman was heard shouting 'Britain first'.
    He said: 'The lady I work with heard two loud bangs. I wish I was there because I would have tried to stop him.
    'Apparently the guy who did it shouted 'Britain first' and if I had been there I would have tackled him.

    note how it goes from fact to rumour within 3 sentences...
    Yeah, but there were quotes from actual witnesses.

    http://www.examiner.co.uk/news/jo-cox-attack-britain-first-11483296
  • Options
    EstobarEstobar Posts: 558

    Estobar said:

    Sandpit said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    IAAF isn't lifting ban on Russian athletes - oh dear.

    If they will miss the Olympics that's a huge story. Big cojones from an under-pressure Seb Coe.
    credit to Coe.
    Not words that go together readily, unless you mean in a fiscal sense?
    credit for his actions now. in the past, maybe (probably) not.
    Nothing to do with him dodging the serious questions raised by Panorama then?

    He's a thoroughly nasty piece of work.
  • Options
    AlasdairAlasdair Posts: 72
    Sandpit said:

    Are we really about to see someone elected to Parliament unopposed?

    The Party List system in all its glory. Democracy? Who cares.
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,983

    I know the Swedes rejected adopting the Euro as a currency in 2003 quite over overwhelmingly in the end, but did the death of Anna Lindh in similar circumstances to what we have seen with Jo Cox make the final result closer than it should have been?

    Did it help the Yes side, she was pro-EU.

    It made no difference to the result.
  • Options
    CD13CD13 Posts: 6,351
    edited June 2016
    Mr Observer,

    You're probably right about the Turks not joining in the foreseeable future. The problem is that once your lies are routine, no one believes the reassurances.

    The Poles? about 10,000 at a maximum. A reasonable guess or a deliberate lie? Only the Government know. But if they'd told the truth - "We don't know", they'd have been better off. Once you start making figures up, you can't complain if voters no longer believe you if you tell the truth.

    I quite like the Poles*. They're good Christian boys and girls who like a drink and work hard, so why didn't the Government tell the truth? Your lies will always find you out (not yours - I'm referring to HMG).

    *My Boston relatives are less relaxed.
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,459

    Mr. Rose, I agree, but tragedies happen and can't be undone. I'm sure Labour will hold the seat easily, but the principle of giving people a choice is fundamental to democracy.

    Mr. Rising, it may also give the IMF an unresponded hit if they release another gloom-and-doom report right before the vote.

    Miss Plato, she must have blocked a lot of people over that. It was bloody hilarious.


    Labour could put two alternative candidates up, if all other major parties are withdrawing. Still allows for democracy.
    There were THREE "Independent Tories" standing against Martin Bell and Neil Hamilton in Tatton back in 1997.
  • Options
    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,723
    Sandpit said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Sandpit said:

    Are we really about to see someone elected to Parliament unopposed?

    Wasn't Martin Bell in his white suit one? Or near as like?

    For a new Member to be elected unopposed is novel, and doesn't much sound much like democracy.
    It sounds like the House of Lords.
  • Options
    LucyJonesLucyJones Posts: 651
    RobD said:

    eek said:

    PlatoSaid said:



    There's a body of thought that it was only repeated by witnesses after it became a media meme. No one mentioned during the endless witness intvs on Sky at the time. I've no idea - just passing it on.

    Yep. From the daily mail yesterday

    Aamir Tahir, of The Dry Clean Centre, said the gunman was heard shouting 'Britain first'.
    He said: 'The lady I work with heard two loud bangs. I wish I was there because I would have tried to stop him.
    'Apparently the guy who did it shouted 'Britain first' and if I had been there I would have tackled him.

    note how it goes from fact to rumour within 3 sentences...
    Yeah, but there were quotes from actual witnesses.

    http://www.examiner.co.uk/news/jo-cox-attack-britain-first-11483296
    There was a man of TV saying that he heard the attacker shouting either "Britain first" or "Put Britain first", he wasn't sure which but he claimed to have definitely heard it himself.

    The guy seemed plausible enough to me - who knows?

  • Options
    glwglw Posts: 9,554
    PlatoSaid said:

    Sandpit said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    IAAF isn't lifting ban on Russian athletes - oh dear.

    If they will miss the Olympics that's a huge story. Big cojones from an under-pressure Seb Coe.
    I was only half listening - but it sounded like the IAAF think their whole drug testing regime is broken and can't be trusted. Decision may not even go to a vote.
    It can't be trusted, only the other day WADA said Russian security services have been threatening the anti-doping officials.
  • Options
    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,151
    edited June 2016
    OT I was talking about this on Twitter last night and wrote up a guest post but David Rothschild has written up the point more clearly than me: The Betfair rate for Brexit at 35% is several points lower than the actual implied probability of Brexit, because if Remain wins the winners get paid in Glorious Financial Passport Near-Perfect Chancellor Pounds, whereas if Leave wins the winners get paid in near-worthless Faragist Brexit Basket-case Bucks.

    http://predictwise.com/blog/2016/06/brexit-influence-on-pound/
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,990
    PlatoSaid said:


    There's a body of thought that it was only repeated by witnesses after it became a media meme. No one mentioned during the endless witness intvs on Sky at the time. I've no idea - just passing it on.

    Or it became a media meme because they were reporting witnesses saying it. I find it very hard to believe witnesses would lie about what they heard based on tweets from two obscure people.
  • Options
    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,568
    edited June 2016
    SeanT said:

    I thought it was a brilliant poster. A clear visual reference to the " Labour isn't working " classic and moving towards closing the deal. The deal being that the migrant crisis is what this is really all about. If the poster had been used 3 months ago people would have wretched. But now the campaign has been successfully framed around immigration it can be used without outright rejection. Why are Leave taking about hypothetical Turks rather than real Poles ? Because Turks are Muslims. What have we all seen on TV over the last 2 years ? About 2 million largely Muslim and entirely unplanned immigrants who appeared to have just ' walked in '. It seems to me finally mentioning on a poster what this is all about 7 days from polling day is just like a good composer coming towards the end of a symphony. As for it being Farage... well it offers Leave plausible deniability with no real reduction in press coverage for it. I'm not convinced it's a mistake for Leave at all. It seems completely consistent with their strategy. The polls say the strategy is working so far.

    Of course it's not a mistake in terms of winning the campaign. It's exactly what you say. It's the Moslems are coming to get us if we don't vote Leave.

    Yes, but, for the very first time it made LEAVERS like me pause and go, Ugh.

    Because

    https://twitter.com/zcbeaton/status/743397112923230212


    They could seal the deal with the WWC (but haven't they done that already?) - yet lose liberal LEAVERS like me (they probably won't, but- hmmm)
    Really interesting discussion on Nazi propaganda. This was a fascinating part of my uni degree course. Everyone calls to mind 'Triumph of the Will' and Goebell's early, horriffic, screaming propaganda film comparing Jews to rats - which is I think where the image SeanT has posted comes from. But actually that film wasn't a success. People fainted in the cinemas, it was ugly - it put people off. Goebells soon learned you need to entertain, to stimulate people's emotions with a good tale, and then sneak your propaganda in. So later films like historical drama Jude Suss were a huge success and can be seen to have achieved their wicked aim. And this is what propagandists, marketers, film companies etc. have been doing ever since.

    So the moral of this story isn't that Nigel is using Nazi propaganda techniques - everyone is doing that, it's that he's using the WRONG Nazi propaganda techniques.
  • Options
    TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,662


    Agree with the other major parties not contesting the by-election. Murder of a sitting MP should not lead to an advantage to other parties.

    But I hope the campaigning will continue for the referendum. This decision is to important to be derailed by a moron.

    I think this is a key point. There is a risk that an important decision (which many have worked very hard for years/decades to bring to a vote) is overshadowed by a tragic event which may impact on the openness of the debate and/or the result.
  • Options
    dugarbandierdugarbandier Posts: 2,596
    Estobar said:

    Estobar said:

    Sandpit said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    IAAF isn't lifting ban on Russian athletes - oh dear.

    If they will miss the Olympics that's a huge story. Big cojones from an under-pressure Seb Coe.
    credit to Coe.
    Not words that go together readily, unless you mean in a fiscal sense?
    credit for his actions now. in the past, maybe (probably) not.
    Nothing to do with him dodging the serious questions raised by Panorama then?

    He's a thoroughly nasty piece of work.
    i know nothing of him (apart from watching him run on tv in the 80s). but if he's prepared to stand up against the russians now, then he deserves credit for it. I don't know about panorama. if it's criminal maybe he can appeal for a lighter sentence on the basis of his correct actions now?
  • Options
    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,977
    surbiton said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    RobD said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    SeanT said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    SeanT said:

    DanSmith said:

    SeanT said:

    @glw I don't think campaigning should be brought to a halt. But some of the huffing and pshawing about David Cameron's words to the nation on the subject are comprehensively missing the point that something awful has happened and we need humbly and carefully to be taking stock.

    We should be doing that when we know what happened currently we don't, bar the fact of the murder.
    Michael Crick is saying Mair will be charged under the Terrorism Act. That's significant
    I don't understand, it's murder.


    Then these witnesses dematerialise.

    After this the referendum campaign is entirely suspended for several crucial days, just as one side appears to have enormous momentum.

    Then the murderer is mysteriously charged with Terrorism, on the grounds that this will help the government

    I'm joking. I think. But... Who the F knows. The government is clearly desperate. How far would they go to get a win? I genuinely don't know any more. I can imagine tacit pressure on the CPS.
    Have the witnesses vanished? :o
    Didn't First'?
    Hm, I find it hard to believe they were all actually making it up.
    The media are finding it hard to locate any actual eye witnesses, rather than examples of mere hearsay, But I could be wrong.
    It all been deleted.

    Jeremy Vine asked on Twitter where it all came from. No one seems to know.
    The Britain First quote? That was reported via an eyewitness, not just based on those tweets.
    There's a body of thought that it was only repeated by witnesses after it became a media meme. No one mentioned during the endless witness intvs on Sky at the time. I've no idea - just passing it on.
    Of course, you are just passing it on with a mountain of scepticism.

    On BBC news last night they had an eye witness who described seeing the whole thing and hearing the killer say Britain First or Put Britain First.

    The fact is we do not know. The police will find out. Whatever was or was not said, this was one person - very probably with mental health issues - acting completely alone. That is that.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,010
    Miss Jones, and another eyewitness who said he didn't hear that, but only one of them featured on the BBC News at Ten.
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    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,568

    Wink wink

    Jim Pickard‏ @PickardJE
    David Cameron: "Where we see hatred, where we see division, where we see intolerance we must drive it out of our public life and politics."

    I can certainly see one little ball of hatred that needs to be driven from public life. And another one sitting next to him.
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    tpfkartpfkar Posts: 1,548
    stodge said:

    tpfkar said:

    Tim Farron's just tweeted that the Lib Dems won't stand in Batley and Spen. Can't imagine there will be any internal backlash on that.

    However, and hard though this may sound, the show must go on. The political process cannot be seen to be subverted or compromised (whether well-meaning or not). We live in a democratic society and ultimately that democracy functions through debate and elections.
    We're in full agreement on that - but I'd suggest that yesterday's events were far more a subversion of that democracy than whether or not to stand in a by-election.

    Agree with the skepticism over recalling parliament though - I can understand MPs wanting to pay respects together but not sure this requires a recall.
  • Options
    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    RobD said:

    PlatoSaid said:


    There's a body of thought that it was only repeated by witnesses after it became a media meme. No one mentioned during the endless witness intvs on Sky at the time. I've no idea - just passing it on.

    Or it became a media meme because they were reporting witnesses saying it. I find it very hard to believe witnesses would lie about what they heard based on tweets from two obscure people.
    Obscure person > endorsed by Labour front bencher > repeated on TV > ...

    I've no idea - I'm just surprised that in the two hours or so I watched Sky live outside broadcast immediately after the event - this was never mentioned until M Eagles tweeted it.
  • Options
    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    TudorRose said:


    Agree with the other major parties not contesting the by-election. Murder of a sitting MP should not lead to an advantage to other parties.

    But I hope the campaigning will continue for the referendum. This decision is to important to be derailed by a moron.

    I think this is a key point. There is a risk that an important decision (which many have worked very hard for years/decades to bring to a vote) is overshadowed by a tragic event which may impact on the openness of the debate and/or the result.
    The biggest risk for me is that it might affect the perceived legitimacy of the result. It's going to be incredibly hard to resume business as usual post-referendum, whatever happens.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,941
    PlatoSaid said:

    Sandpit said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    IAAF isn't lifting ban on Russian athletes - oh dear.

    If they will miss the Olympics that's a huge story. Big cojones from an under-pressure Seb Coe.
    I was only half listening - but it sounded like the IAAF think their whole drug testing regime is broken and can't be trusted. Decision may not even go to a vote.
    That's fantastic news. Missing the big one is the only way that Putin's cronies in charge of Russian athletics could be shamed into sorting out the problems.

    It's systemic and has been for decades, any other punishment would be insufficient, just seen by everyone there as a cost of doing business.
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    DadgeDadge Posts: 2,038

    surbiton said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    RobD said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    SeanT said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    SeanT said:

    DanSmith said:

    SeanT said:

    @glw I don't think campaigning should be brought to a halt. But some of the huffing and pshawing about David Cameron's words to the nation on the subject are comprehensively missing the point that something awful has happened and we need humbly and carefully to be taking stock.

    We should be doing that when we know what happened currently we don't, bar the fact of the murder.
    Michael Crick is saying Mair will be charged under the Terrorism Act. That's significant
    I don't understand, it's murder.


    Then these witnesses dematerialise.

    After this the referendum campaign is entirely suspended for several crucial days, just as one side appears to have enormous momentum.

    Then the murderer is mysteriously charged with Terrorism, on the grounds that this will help the government

    I'm joking. I think. But... Who the F knows. The government is clearly desperate. How far would they go to get a win? I genuinely don't know any more. I can imagine tacit pressure on the CPS.
    Have the witnesses vanished? :o
    Didn't First'?
    Hm, I find it hard to believe they were all actually making it up.
    The media are finding it hard to locate any actual eye witnesses, rather than examples of mere hearsay, But I could be wrong.
    It all been deleted.

    Jeremy Vine asked on Twitter where it all came from. No one seems to know.
    The Britain First quote? That was reported via an eyewitness, not just based on those tweets.
    There's a body of thought that it was only repeated by witnesses after it became a media meme. No one mentioned during the endless witness intvs on Sky at the time. I've no idea - just passing it on.
    Of course, you are just passing it on with a mountain of scepticism.

    On BBC news last night they had an eye witness who described seeing the whole thing and hearing the killer say Britain First or Put Britain First.

    The fact is we do not know. The police will find out. Whatever was or was not said, this was one person - very probably with mental health issues - acting completely alone. That is that.
    No one exists in a vacuum.
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    logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,727
    Estobar said:

    Isn't the reason UKIP stand against the Speaker that they loathe John Bercow? I believe it's purely personal :)

    Farage maybe thought he stood a better chance if the main parties weren't fighting it.
    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2010/may/07/nigel-farage-ukip-john-bercow
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    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    tpfkar said:

    stodge said:

    tpfkar said:

    Tim Farron's just tweeted that the Lib Dems won't stand in Batley and Spen. Can't imagine there will be any internal backlash on that.

    However, and hard though this may sound, the show must go on. The political process cannot be seen to be subverted or compromised (whether well-meaning or not). We live in a democratic society and ultimately that democracy functions through debate and elections.
    We're in full agreement on that - but I'd suggest that yesterday's events were far more a subversion of that democracy than whether or not to stand in a by-election.

    Agree with the skepticism over recalling parliament though - I can understand MPs wanting to pay respects together but not sure this requires a recall.
    I don't mind a recall - it shouldn't stop the rest of the UK get on with campaigning.
  • Options
    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,568
    PlatoSaid said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    FPT:

    Sorry to be harsh, but suspending the campaigns until Monday (or later) is totally inappropriate. Democracy makes we the people sovereign, not our MPs. While this event is clearly a tragedy, the personal feelings of our elected representatives is not as important as the referendum which will take place next Thursday. Nobody should be forced to campaign if they do not wish to, but it is totally wrong to force that suspension on others for an extended period. It reveals yet again the narcissism of our political classes that the loss of one of their own, however tragic, should outweigh the magnitude of next week's vote.

    The best tribute to Jo Cox MP would be to carry on leafleting, canvassing and arguing until 10pm on Thursday 23 June. We must not allow the functioning of our electoral system to be changed by the actions of terrorists or lunatics.

    Ditto.
    It's like extending the voter registration, the Govt leaflet. It's electioneering. It's grotesquely immoral, but there it is, they have to win this.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,990
    edited June 2016
    PlatoSaid said:

    RobD said:

    PlatoSaid said:


    There's a body of thought that it was only repeated by witnesses after it became a media meme. No one mentioned during the endless witness intvs on Sky at the time. I've no idea - just passing it on.

    Or it became a media meme because they were reporting witnesses saying it. I find it very hard to believe witnesses would lie about what they heard based on tweets from two obscure people.
    Obscure person > endorsed by Labour front bencher > repeated on TV > ...

    I've no idea - I'm just surprised that in the two hours or so I watched Sky live outside broadcast immediately after the event - this was never mentioned until M Eagles tweeted it.
    I suspect they would have tweeted a fact like that as soon as it was reported, so the timing of the first eyewitness reports and the tweet may be related, but in the opposite way you that you imagine.
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    stodgestodge Posts: 12,895
    Lennon said:


    I also think that it is wrong to recall parliament, but that is a more nuanced decision, and whilst people comment on the Brighton bomb and conference still continuing (albeit in a sombre tone) - it seems different - the Conservative party were (by definition) all together and so could collectively grief and mourn and work through that together - in this case the emotional desire for parliamentarians to grief together makes the desire for them to gather together somewhat stronger. Just my two cents of course.

    It's easy to forget MPs have lost a friend and a colleague in terrible circumstances. I have no issue with them coming together to mourn and remember her.

  • Options
    glwglw Posts: 9,554
    RobD said:

    Only really useful if you think you are in a good position to be the candidate for the former MPs party. Being charged with murder may decrease chances of selection, however...

    I'm not suggesting that it would work outside of a novel by Michael Dobbs, but ideally violence should have as little as possible effect on politics. We don't want disturbed people or terrorists thinking that they can have any effect beyond the normal grieving of family and friends, and the inevitable disruption caused by an attack. I'm very much in favour of what Thatcher did after the Brighton bombing, even some of her harshest critics will concede that that was one of her finest moments.
  • Options
    philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    edited June 2016
    PlatoSaid said:

    glw said:

    stodge said:

    However, and hard though this may sound, the show must go on. The political process cannot be seen to be subverted or compromised (whether well-meaning or not). We live in a democratic society and ultimately that democracy functions through debate and elections.

    Whether or not they intend it the message that is being sent is this; murder an MP and you can stop political campaigning for days, and get an uncontested election.
    Absolutely. It's the totally wrong message. However an MP meets their demise, the democratic process goes on. It's bigger than a single individual - no matter tragic the circumstances.
    I disagree.

    The people made a choice for a presumed 5 year period in May 2015.

    You can not allow democracy to be subverted by criminal activity. If the sitting MP is murdered, killed in terrorist attack aimed at them (as distinct from caught in a terrorist act by chance) the will of the public at the previous election should be honoured with an uncontested election ( - difficult if the representative is an independent!).

    To risk a change in the political make up with a contested election is to allow the perpetrator of the crime to change the political nature of the nation. Crime should not have influence or prosper.

    For example, the election following the murder of Airey Neave should have been an uncontested election (I don't think it was).

    This should be an uncontested election to allow the will of the electorate of May 2015 to run its course without any influence from the crime committed.

    Where an MP dies of natural causes, accident or is incarcerated at Her Majestys Pleasure, then a contested election is correct.
  • Options
    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    glw said:

    RobD said:

    Only really useful if you think you are in a good position to be the candidate for the former MPs party. Being charged with murder may decrease chances of selection, however...

    I'm not suggesting that it would work outside of a novel by Michael Dobbs, but ideally violence should have as little as possible effect on politics. We don't want disturbed people or terrorists thinking that they can have any effect beyond the normal grieving of family and friends, and the inevitable disruption caused by an attack. I'm very much in favour of what Thatcher did after the Brighton bombing, even some of her harshest critics will concede that that was one of her finest moments.
    Absolutely. And Major re Downing St

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g_raOYJCw1A

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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,010
    Mr. H, voters don't vote for a party, but an individual. I may well have voted for Gwyneth Dunwoody, had she stood in my seat, despite her being Labour. That doesn't mean I'd want *any* Labour candidate to succeed her had she been murdered.
  • Options
    DadgeDadge Posts: 2,038
    PlatoSaid said:

    RobD said:

    PlatoSaid said:


    There's a body of thought that it was only repeated by witnesses after it became a media meme. No one mentioned during the endless witness intvs on Sky at the time. I've no idea - just passing it on.

    Or it became a media meme because they were reporting witnesses saying it. I find it very hard to believe witnesses would lie about what they heard based on tweets from two obscure people.
    Obscure person > endorsed by Labour front bencher > repeated on TV > ...

    I've no idea - I'm just surprised that in the two hours or so I watched Sky live outside broadcast immediately after the event - this was never mentioned until M Eagles tweeted it.
    The first time I heard it was very soon after the event. The second time, from a different witness, was much later, and I did wonder whether it was true or not. I don't think it's conspiracy-mania to be skeptical about this. Witness psychology is a difficult area. We should find out at the trial.

    Whatever he said or didn't say, there is more evidence so far pointing towards right-wing-nut-attacking-easy-target than personal-animus-towards-victim.
  • Options
    LucyJonesLucyJones Posts: 651
    edited June 2016

    Miss Jones, and another eyewitness who said he didn't hear that, but only one of them featured on the BBC News at Ten.

    It's always possible that one person heard it and not the other. But you have a point in that it would have been more balanced reporting if the BBC had made that clear.

    As a side issue, could such reporting be later held to damage the possibility of being able to hold a fair trial? It seems to me that a large number of people seem to be already convinced that this was a politically-motivated crime carried out by some sort of right-wing extremist. Yet, from what I can tell, there is relatively little evidence in the public domain to support this hypothesis at the moment: some words that he may or may not have shouted, and some books which he may or may not have bought.

    Edited - original sentence far too long.
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    DadgeDadge Posts: 2,038

    voters don't vote for a party, but an individual

    Speak for yourself.
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    glwglw Posts: 9,554
    RobD said:

    Or it became a media meme because they were reporting witnesses saying it. I find it very hard to believe witnesses would lie about what they heard based on tweets from two obscure people.

    Not writing about this case as what do I know, but people still parrot stuff about Columbine that has been shown to be false as though it is an incontrovertible fact. It seems to happen with almost all similar tragedies; narratives are created almost from the instance of the event itself that support particular political viewpoints, or apportion blame to hated groups, or demonstrate particular heroism on the part of victims or vindictiveness by the perpetrators (Northern Ireland has innumerable BS stories about things done to victims of terrorism).
  • Options
    philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704

    Mr. H, voters don't vote for a party, but an individual. I may well have voted for Gwyneth Dunwoody, had she stood in my seat, despite her being Labour. That doesn't mean I'd want *any* Labour candidate to succeed her had she been murdered.

    That is the risk you run living in a system that has political parties.

    I believe in our system the best solution in these very rare and extreme events is an uncontested election.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,990
    LucyJones said:

    Miss Jones, and another eyewitness who said he didn't hear that, but only one of them featured on the BBC News at Ten.

    It's always possible that one person heard it and not the other. But you have a point in that it would have been more balanced reporting if the BBC had made that clear.

    As a side issue, could such reporting be later held to damage the possibility of being able to hold a fair trial? It seems to me that a large number of people seem to be already convinced that this was a politically-motivated crime carried out by some sort of right-wing extremist even though there is relatively little evidence to support this hypothesis at this time (some words that he may or may not have shouted, and some books which he may or may not have bought, from what I can tell).
    The invoice shown on the Telegraph has his name on it. Unless it's a case of mistaken identity, and there is another Thomas Mair nutjob out there.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,010
    Mr. Dadge, I will, but I'm also stating a matter of fact.

    If an MP is elected as a Monster Raving Loony but then decides to become an Unfettered Jabberwocky, they remain an MP. The Monster Raving Loonies don't get to name one of their number the new MP for Lunatic South.

    Party may well be a motivating factor, but the vote is for an individual, not a party.

    Miss Jones, I agree. Partial reporting is bias by incompetence, at best.
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    PaulyPauly Posts: 897
    philiph said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    glw said:

    stodge said:

    However, and hard though this may sound, the show must go on. The political process cannot be seen to be subverted or compromised (whether well-meaning or not). We live in a democratic society and ultimately that democracy functions through debate and elections.

    Whether or not they intend it the message that is being sent is this; murder an MP and you can stop political campaigning for days, and get an uncontested election.
    Absolutely. It's the totally wrong message. However an MP meets their demise, the democratic process goes on. It's bigger than a single individual - no matter tragic the circumstances.
    I disagree.

    The people made a choice for a presumed 5 year period in May 2015.

    You can not allow democracy to be subverted by criminal activity. If the sitting MP is murdered, killed in terrorist attack aimed at them (as distinct from caught in a terrorist act by chance) the will of the public at the previous election should be honoured with an uncontested election ( - difficult if the representative is an independent!).

    To risk a change in the political make up with a contested election is to allow the perpetrator of the crime to change the political nature of the nation. Crime should not have influence or prosper.

    For example, the election following the murder of Airey Neave should have been an uncontested election (I don't think it was).

    This should be an uncontested election to allow the will of the electorate of May 2015 to run its course without any influence from the crime committed.

    Where an MP dies of natural causes, accident or is incarcerated at Her Majestys Pleasure, then a contested election is correct.
    We could see a Corbynista replace a Blairite which changes the political face of the country. The only reasonable way of doing it uncontested is if the immediate family choose the replacement or every MP has a formal replacement list (will) for this type of scenario.
  • Options
    DadgeDadge Posts: 2,038
    Sandpit said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Sandpit said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    IAAF isn't lifting ban on Russian athletes - oh dear.

    If they will miss the Olympics that's a huge story. Big cojones from an under-pressure Seb Coe.
    I was only half listening - but it sounded like the IAAF think their whole drug testing regime is broken and can't be trusted. Decision may not even go to a vote.
    That's fantastic news. Missing the big one is the only way that Putin's cronies in charge of Russian athletics could be shamed into sorting out the problems.

    It's systemic and has been for decades, any other punishment would be insufficient, just seen by everyone there as a cost of doing business.
    Interesting to see how the Russian people take their increasing isolation. Of course they are getting wildly biased news reporting, but the economic effects should at least give cause to reflect.
  • Options
    glwglw Posts: 9,554

    Mr. H, voters don't vote for a party, but an individual. I may well have voted for Gwyneth Dunwoody, had she stood in my seat, despite her being Labour. That doesn't mean I'd want *any* Labour candidate to succeed her had she been murdered.

    Yeah imagine getting someone like Ken Livingstone parachuted into an uncontested election.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @tamcohen: Vote Leave: All national events cancelled tomorrrow. Rally on Sunday with Boris, Gove, Priti Patel still going ahead at present
  • Options
    RealBritainRealBritain Posts: 255
    Dadge said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    RobD said:

    PlatoSaid said:


    There's a body of thought that it was only repeated by witnesses after it became a media meme. No one mentioned during the endless witness intvs on Sky at the time. I've no idea - just passing it on.

    Or it became a media meme because they were reporting witnesses saying it. I find it very hard to believe witnesses would lie about what they heard based on tweets from two obscure people.
    Obscure person > endorsed by Labour front bencher > repeated on TV > ...

    I've no idea - I'm just surprised that in the two hours or so I watched Sky live outside broadcast immediately after the event - this was never mentioned until M Eagles tweeted it.
    The first time I heard it was very soon after the event. The second time, from a different witness, was much later, and I did wonder whether it was true or not. I don't think it's conspiracy-mania to be skeptical about this. Witness psychology is a difficult area. We should find out at the trial.

    Whatever he said or didn't say, there is more evidence so far pointing towards right-wing-nut-attacking-easy-target than personal-animus-towards-victim.
    Yes, almost all the limited evidence points in that direction so far. There's a particular lack of information up to this point on his most recent activities. People may understandably expect a period of quiet and respect for now, but in the coming days they'll also come to expect much greater information from the authorities, who must already be forming a reasonable idea by now.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,002
    edited June 2016
    @GLW Confident it won't be Ken but.......

    @Morris_Dancer Do you remember any high profile Labourites that lost their seat in West Yorkshire at GE2015 possibly looking for a return to parliament ........................
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,977
    Pulpstar said:

    @Morris_Dancer Do you remember any high profile Labourites that lost their seat in West Yorkshire at GE2015 possibly looking for a return to parliament ........................

    I'd say her husband has to be a pretty strong contender, if he feels able to do it.

  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,941
    philiph said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    glw said:

    stodge said:

    However, and hard though this may sound, the show must go on. The political process cannot be seen to be subverted or compromised (whether well-meaning or not). We live in a democratic society and ultimately that democracy functions through debate and elections.

    Whether or not they intend it the message that is being sent is this; murder an MP and you can stop political campaigning for days, and get an uncontested election.
    Absolutely. It's the totally wrong message. However an MP meets their demise, the democratic process goes on. It's bigger than a single individual - no matter tragic the circumstances.
    I disagree.

    The people made a choice for a presumed 5 year period in May 2015.

    You can not allow democracy to be subverted by criminal activity. If the sitting MP is murdered, killed in terrorist attack aimed at them (as distinct from caught in a terrorist act by chance) the will of the public at the previous election should be honoured with an uncontested election ( - difficult if the representative is an independent!).

    To risk a change in the political make up with a contested election is to allow the perpetrator of the crime to change the political nature of the nation. Crime should not have influence or prosper.

    For example, the election following the murder of Airey Neave should have been an uncontested election (I don't think it was).

    This should be an uncontested election to allow the will of the electorate of May 2015 to run its course without any influence from the crime committed.

    Where an MP dies of natural causes, accident or is incarcerated at Her Majestys Pleasure, then a contested election is correct.
    The will of the electorate of Batley and Spen was for Helen Joanne Cox to represent them in Parliament. Given that Mrs Cox is sadly deceased, the electorate should be given the opportunity to select someone to represent them once again.
  • Options
    dugarbandierdugarbandier Posts: 2,596
    Dadge said:

    Sandpit said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Sandpit said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    IAAF isn't lifting ban on Russian athletes - oh dear.

    If they will miss the Olympics that's a huge story. Big cojones from an under-pressure Seb Coe.
    I was only half listening - but it sounded like the IAAF think their whole drug testing regime is broken and can't be trusted. Decision may not even go to a vote.
    That's fantastic news. Missing the big one is the only way that Putin's cronies in charge of Russian athletics could be shamed into sorting out the problems.

    It's systemic and has been for decades, any other punishment would be insufficient, just seen by everyone there as a cost of doing business.
    Interesting to see how the Russian people take their increasing isolation. Of course they are getting wildly biased news reporting, but the economic effects should at least give cause to reflect.
    the Russians may feel that they are the Lance Armstrong of athletics doping. who knows whether with justification or not

  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,990

    Pulpstar said:

    @Morris_Dancer Do you remember any high profile Labourites that lost their seat in West Yorkshire at GE2015 possibly looking for a return to parliament ........................

    I'd say her husband has to be a pretty strong contender, if he feels able to do it.

    Who knows, he could be a Tory...
  • Options
    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    Mr. Sandpit, that doesn't inspire confidence.

    On the by-election, others not contesting it, if that's happening, is entirely wrong. The whole point of democracy is that people get a choice.

    I am sure there will be a few minor Independent candidates.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,941
    Dadge said:

    Sandpit said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Sandpit said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    IAAF isn't lifting ban on Russian athletes - oh dear.

    If they will miss the Olympics that's a huge story. Big cojones from an under-pressure Seb Coe.
    I was only half listening - but it sounded like the IAAF think their whole drug testing regime is broken and can't be trusted. Decision may not even go to a vote.
    That's fantastic news. Missing the big one is the only way that Putin's cronies in charge of Russian athletics could be shamed into sorting out the problems.

    It's systemic and has been for decades, any other punishment would be insufficient, just seen by everyone there as a cost of doing business.
    Interesting to see how the Russian people take their increasing isolation. Of course they are getting wildly biased news reporting, but the economic effects should at least give cause to reflect.
    Mrs Sandpit speaks Russian, I'll ask her what if anything is reported on the Russian news this evening.
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    RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    edited June 2016
    I must say, I'm finding it pretty hard to retain my faith in democracy. The Government have spent public money to boost their side, unilaterally extended voter registration and are now using competitive grief to freeze Leave out of the media.

    What's the point in voting? Perhaps I'll vote Remain; at least the EU doesn't pretend to give power to the people.
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    nunununu Posts: 6,024
    Scott_P said:

    @tamcohen: Vote Leave: All national events cancelled tomorrrow. Rally on Sunday with Boris, Gove, Priti Patel still going ahead at present

    Will they continue with canvassing?
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,602
    Pulpstar said:

    @GLW Confident it won't be Ken but.......

    @Morris_Dancer Do you remember any high profile Labourites that lost their seat in West Yorkshire at GE2015 possibly looking for a return to parliament ........................

    Oooh that's smart thinking.

    Labour definitely need Ed Balls back in Parliament.

    Politics can be brutal. On May 7th 2015, he woke up thinking he might be Chancellor of the Exhequer the next day, but instead he became unemployed the next day.
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    nunu said:

    Will they continue with canvassing?

    I haven't seen anything on that
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,941

    Pulpstar said:

    @Morris_Dancer Do you remember any high profile Labourites that lost their seat in West Yorkshire at GE2015 possibly looking for a return to parliament ........................

    I'd say her husband has to be a pretty strong contender, if he feels able to do it.

    I thought the same but didn't want to be the first to mention it. Holding off the moving of the writ until after the summer might make it a possibility.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,071

    Dadge said:

    Sandpit said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Sandpit said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    IAAF isn't lifting ban on Russian athletes - oh dear.

    If they will miss the Olympics that's a huge story. Big cojones from an under-pressure Seb Coe.
    I was only half listening - but it sounded like the IAAF think their whole drug testing regime is broken and can't be trusted. Decision may not even go to a vote.
    That's fantastic news. Missing the big one is the only way that Putin's cronies in charge of Russian athletics could be shamed into sorting out the problems.

    It's systemic and has been for decades, any other punishment would be insufficient, just seen by everyone there as a cost of doing business.
    Interesting to see how the Russian people take their increasing isolation. Of course they are getting wildly biased news reporting, but the economic effects should at least give cause to reflect.
    the Russians may feel that they are the Lance Armstrong of athletics doping. who knows whether with justification or not

    Having survived the cancer of communism?
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,459

    Pulpstar said:

    @GLW Confident it won't be Ken but.......

    @Morris_Dancer Do you remember any high profile Labourites that lost their seat in West Yorkshire at GE2015 possibly looking for a return to parliament ........................

    Oooh that's smart thinking.

    Labour definitely need Ed Balls back in Parliament.

    Politics can be brutal. On May 7th 2015, he woke up thinking he might be Chancellor of the Exhequer the next day, but instead he became unemployed the next day.
    Balls was the Portillo moment of 2015.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,010
    Miss Plato, Harman would like ringtail lemurs. The highest male is beneath the lowest female.

    The octo-lemur still claim Leave will get 52%. As before, I have no idea if they're taking the piss.

    Mr. Pulpstar, but is Balls Non-Core Hostile?
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    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503

    Pulpstar said:

    @GLW Confident it won't be Ken but.......

    @Morris_Dancer Do you remember any high profile Labourites that lost their seat in West Yorkshire at GE2015 possibly looking for a return to parliament ........................

    Oooh that's smart thinking.

    Labour definitely need Ed Balls back in Parliament.

    Politics can be brutal. On May 7th 2015, he woke up thinking he might be Chancellor of the Exhequer the next day, but instead he became unemployed the next day.
    My immediate question is - never mind the Labour party, does Jeremy want Ed back in parliament?

    Apropos of nothing, another recent Der Spiegel article was explaining the British FPTP system to its readership, in the same tone that an anthropologist might have described head-shrinking to a Victorian audience. The continentals just don't get our system at all.
  • Options
    GideonWiseGideonWise Posts: 1,123

    Pulpstar said:

    @GLW Confident it won't be Ken but.......

    @Morris_Dancer Do you remember any high profile Labourites that lost their seat in West Yorkshire at GE2015 possibly looking for a return to parliament ........................

    Oooh that's smart thinking.

    Labour definitely need Ed Balls back in Parliament.

    Politics can be brutal. On May 7th 2015, he woke up thinking he might be Chancellor of the Exhequer the next day, but instead he became unemployed the next day.
    Smart thinking? More like another severe blow to democracy if you ask me.
  • Options
    nunununu Posts: 6,024

    Pulpstar said:

    @GLW Confident it won't be Ken but.......

    @Morris_Dancer Do you remember any high profile Labourites that lost their seat in West Yorkshire at GE2015 possibly looking for a return to parliament ........................

    Oooh that's smart thinking.

    Labour definitely need Ed Balls back in Parliament.

    Politics can be brutal. On May 7th 2015, he woke up thinking he might be Chancellor of the Exhequer the next day, but instead he became unemployed the next day.
    End Balls is a very divisive politician. Labour might need him but the country doesn't.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,990
    John_M said:

    Pulpstar said:

    @GLW Confident it won't be Ken but.......

    @Morris_Dancer Do you remember any high profile Labourites that lost their seat in West Yorkshire at GE2015 possibly looking for a return to parliament ........................

    Oooh that's smart thinking.

    Labour definitely need Ed Balls back in Parliament.

    Politics can be brutal. On May 7th 2015, he woke up thinking he might be Chancellor of the Exhequer the next day, but instead he became unemployed the next day.
    My immediate question is - never mind the Labour party, does Jeremy want Ed back in parliament?

    Apropos of nothing, another recent Der Spiegel article was explaining the British FPTP system to its readership, in the same tone that an anthropologist might have described head-shrinking to a Victorian audience. The continentals just don't get our system at all.
    How dumb are the Germans? It is the simplest election system in the world ;)
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    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    Sandpit said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Sandpit said:

    Are we really about to see someone elected to Parliament unopposed?

    Wasn't Martin Bell in his white suit one? Or near as like?
    He got a free run against the Tory, and three main parties don't usually stand against the Speaker, but UKIP did and a few independents.
    For a new Member to be elected unopposed is novel, and doesn't much sound much like democracy.
    Actually until World War 2 quite a few MPs were returned unopposed at General Elections - the Tories often would not bother contesting hopeless seats such as the Rhondda whilst Labour failed to put up candidates in some very rural areas. Of course, it still happens occasionally at Local Elections.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,010
    Mr. M, the Germans love PR because of old war guilt. It's a system designed to prevent any one party getting a majority and force compromise.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,990

    Mr. M, the Germans love PR because of old war guilt. It's a system designed to prevent any one party getting a majority and force compromise.

    But they had PR back then too!
  • Options
    dugarbandierdugarbandier Posts: 2,596
    rcs1000 said:

    Dadge said:

    Sandpit said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Sandpit said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    IAAF isn't lifting ban on Russian athletes - oh dear.

    If they will miss the Olympics that's a huge story. Big cojones from an under-pressure Seb Coe.
    I was only half listening - but it sounded like the IAAF think their whole drug testing regime is broken and can't be trusted. Decision may not even go to a vote.
    That's fantastic news. Missing the big one is the only way that Putin's cronies in charge of Russian athletics could be shamed into sorting out the problems.

    It's systemic and has been for decades, any other punishment would be insufficient, just seen by everyone there as a cost of doing business.
    Interesting to see how the Russian people take their increasing isolation. Of course they are getting wildly biased news reporting, but the economic effects should at least give cause to reflect.
    the Russians may feel that they are the Lance Armstrong of athletics doping. who knows whether with justification or not

    Having survived the cancer of communism?
    i meant that Lances crime was being a bully and an arsehole. everyone (more or less) did the doping. I don't know if athletics is similar, but the Russians don't appear to be emplying much charm
  • Options
    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    edited June 2016
    RobD said:

    John_M said:

    Pulpstar said:

    @GLW Confident it won't be Ken but.......

    @Morris_Dancer Do you remember any high profile Labourites that lost their seat in West Yorkshire at GE2015 possibly looking for a return to parliament ........................

    Oooh that's smart thinking.

    Labour definitely need Ed Balls back in Parliament.

    Politics can be brutal. On May 7th 2015, he woke up thinking he might be Chancellor of the Exhequer the next day, but instead he became unemployed the next day.
    My immediate question is - never mind the Labour party, does Jeremy want Ed back in parliament?

    Apropos of nothing, another recent Der Spiegel article was explaining the British FPTP system to its readership, in the same tone that an anthropologist might have described head-shrinking to a Victorian audience. The continentals just don't get our system at all.
    How dumb are the Germans? It is the simplest election system in the world ;)
    My instant rejoinder is that they think safe seats are silly, the fact that government composition is dependent on a relatively small number of marginals sillier and that we now have a system (if 2015 is repeated) that is crude in the extreme. Are you Labour or Tory*?

    See?

    *We can discount the jocks and the taffies, they don't count ;).
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,144
    FF43 said:

    SeanT said:

    TOPPING said:

    SeanT said:

    DanSmith said:

    SeanT said:

    @glw I don't think campaigning should be brought to a halt. But some of the huffing and pshawing about David Cameron's words to the nation on the subject are comprehensively missing the point that something awful has happened and we need humbly and carefully to be taking stock.

    We should be doing that when we know what happened currently we don't, bar the fact of the murder.
    Michael Crick is saying Mair will be charged under the Terrorism Act. That's significant
    I don't understand, it's murder.
    It's certainly great premise for a political thriller. Man commits weird but pivotal murder on verge of nation-changing referendum. Several "eye-witnesses" claim he said "Britain first" as he did the murdering.

    Then these witnesses dematerialise.

    After this the referendum campaign is entirely suspended for several crucial days, just as one side appears to have enormous momentum.

    Then the murderer is mysteriously charged with Terrorism, on the grounds that this will help the government

    I'm joking. I think. But... Who the F knows. The government is clearly desperate. How far would they go to get a win? I genuinely don't know any more. I can imagine tacit pressure on the CPS.
    You are joking, indeed.

    Did you see @Luckyguy1983's post this morning?
    Clearly I don't believe the guy was some paid assassin. Ludicrous

    But I can. I'm afraid, imagine some subtle political pressure to charge him under the Terrorism Act (if Crick's tweet is accurate). That seems odd and jarring, but helpful to REMAIN

    Hey ho. Weird times.
    If he was acting alone, I suspect he would be charged for murder - it seems like an open and shut case. The purpose of the Terrorism Acts as far as I can tell from the police point of view is that it makes their job easier. They can detain people longer, do wider ranging searches etc. This suggests to me the police believe the suspect wasn't acting alone.

    For the avoidance of doubt I am talking about the involvement of some shadowy far right group and not the Leave campaign or UKIP.
    Or Cliff Richard....
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,602

    Pulpstar said:

    @GLW Confident it won't be Ken but.......

    @Morris_Dancer Do you remember any high profile Labourites that lost their seat in West Yorkshire at GE2015 possibly looking for a return to parliament ........................

    Oooh that's smart thinking.

    Labour definitely need Ed Balls back in Parliament.

    Politics can be brutal. On May 7th 2015, he woke up thinking he might be Chancellor of the Exhequer the next day, but instead he became unemployed the next day.
    Balls was the Portillo moment of 2015.
    When Mike asked me to edit PB on election night I had hoped I would be writing about the following

    6) More Scottish Tory MPs than Scottish Labour MPs
    5) Scötdämmerung
    4) Ajockalypse Now
    3) Balls deep in trouble
    2) A Tory Majority
    1) Mark Reckless losing

    Achieved 5 out of 6
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    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    John_M said:

    Pulpstar said:

    @GLW Confident it won't be Ken but.......

    @Morris_Dancer Do you remember any high profile Labourites that lost their seat in West Yorkshire at GE2015 possibly looking for a return to parliament ........................

    Oooh that's smart thinking.

    Labour definitely need Ed Balls back in Parliament.

    Politics can be brutal. On May 7th 2015, he woke up thinking he might be Chancellor of the Exhequer the next day, but instead he became unemployed the next day.
    My immediate question is - never mind the Labour party, does Jeremy want Ed back in parliament?

    Apropos of nothing, another recent Der Spiegel article was explaining the British FPTP system to its readership, in the same tone that an anthropologist might have described head-shrinking to a Victorian audience. The continentals just don't get our system at all.
    :lol:
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,990
    John_M said:

    RobD said:

    John_M said:

    Pulpstar said:

    @GLW Confident it won't be Ken but.......

    @Morris_Dancer Do you remember any high profile Labourites that lost their seat in West Yorkshire at GE2015 possibly looking for a return to parliament ........................

    Oooh that's smart thinking.

    Labour definitely need Ed Balls back in Parliament.

    Politics can be brutal. On May 7th 2015, he woke up thinking he might be Chancellor of the Exhequer the next day, but instead he became unemployed the next day.
    My immediate question is - never mind the Labour party, does Jeremy want Ed back in parliament?

    Apropos of nothing, another recent Der Spiegel article was explaining the British FPTP system to its readership, in the same tone that an anthropologist might have described head-shrinking to a Victorian audience. The continentals just don't get our system at all.
    How dumb are the Germans? It is the simplest election system in the world ;)
    My instant rejoinder is that they think safe seats are silly, the fact that government composition is dependent on a relatively small number of marginals sillier and that we now have a system (if 2015 is repeated) that is crude in the extreme. Are you Labour or Tory*?

    See?

    *We can discount the jocks and the taffies, they don't count ;).
    Whereas their government composition is dependent on backroom dealings... :p
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,602
    There's a 'Grab a granny' website for the EU Referendum

    http://www.callyournan.com/
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,010
    Mr. D, not sure it was quite the same system, although I agree with you.

    PR was responsible for Hitler coming to power. AV leads to depression, loneliness and Ed Miliband.

    FPTP is the best system.
This discussion has been closed.