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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Roger on a step change in negative political advertising

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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,010
    Mr. SE, the next is, oddly, 1am Saturday.
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,920
    MP_SE said:

    When are the next polls out?

    1am. BMG (which will be out of date because it should have been released 1am this morning)

    Up to date polls might be Opinium and YouGov released tomorrow evening?
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    CD13CD13 Posts: 6,351
    Mr Observer,

    There's no need to apologise - you're been your usual reasonable self.

    As have most people. But out and about, it's certainly livened up a little. I had a discussion last night with someone who thinks Farage a real racist, and he's usually very mild. He had a little rant about Pritt Patel too.

    "Ah," I said. "But, you would, wouldn't you?"

    He looked surprised but considered for a moment before agreeing. Well, he is male.

    That's why I worry about people like Andy Burnham and his daft t-shirt proclaiming he'd never kiss a Tory. And Mr Tyson seeemingly prefers Frau Merkel. Now that is worrying.
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    nunununu Posts: 6,024
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    John_M said:

    Anecdote alert (Scottish edition):

    Out with friends for a fortifying drink last night. All early 40s, professional jobs. Balance of Yes/No voters in Indyref. All voting Remain.

    Very worried about EU ref as their parents (all were indyref No voters) had already postal voted, or were planning to vote Leave and were pretty passionate about it. Affluent central Scotland middle class types.

    You think 2 or 3 Leavers in that company are going to admit to it?
    I think we have to respect anecdota. If I was a professional middle class person in (say) my 30s with children and a mortgage I'd be voting Remain. Family before country. Country before party. Entirely rational and respectable.
    The Indyref No voters were extremely vociferous in telling me why there were voting No at the time, and thought I was stark raving mad for voting Yes. We've been friends for 20+ years and we have very robust dialogue about politics. They are not shrinking violets.

    The more crucial thing is middle class parents (mostly aged over 70) unanimously voting Leave. Doubt we'll see a thumping Remain vote, as per early polls. Might be more of an Indyref style 55-45 split, which wouldn't keep Remain afloat.
    Most polls have at least 60% voting Leave in Scotland
    There was an STV Ipsos Mori only yesterday morning showing 53% Remain (down 13 points).
    It also had Leave on just 32%
    http://www.edinburghnews.net/index.php/sid/244999915
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-36553552
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,672
    RodCrosby said:

    RodCrosby said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    AFP
    #Brexit: French minister says Britain has taken EU hostage https://t.co/3LMtQw1Td7 https://t.co/eftB8NZOn6

    @AFP "If Britain voted to leave, the EU would need to act fast to avoid other countries starting a similar process."

    Freedom is contagious. Let Britannia lead the way!

    https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/d/dd/Britannia-Statue.jpg>
    Hear, hear!

    Note that we will get EEA and single market, probably with minimal dramas.
    ...complimentary membership of the Commonwealth for anyone who wants to join us? (^_-)
    :wink:
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,941
    Freggles said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Do you recall the BBC website from the 1997 election?

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/special/politics97/

    WOW! What an awful looking website!

    All the BBC's funds were going on party poppers, balloons and champagne no doubt.... ;)
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/special/politics97/budget97/live/economy.shtml

    "The Chancellor has announced a five year plan aimed at reducing the budget deficit to overcome what he referrred to as short-term thinking.
    In his first Budget speech, Gordon Brown said the Government would only borrow to invest and public debt would be held at a prudent and stable level.

    "We will now establish clear rules, a new discipline, openness and accountability," he said. "My first rule, the golden rule, ensures that over the economic cycle the Government will borrow only to invest and that current spending will be met from taxation."

    "My second rule is that, as a proportion of national income, public debt will be held at a prudent and stable level over the economic cycle," he added.

    In order to do this, the Chancellor said he would be implementing a five year deficit reduction plan."
    To be fair to him, he did exactly that for the first five years. I voted Labour for the only time in my life in 2001, giving Brown the benefit of the doubt having showed he could earn more than he spent.

    Then in 2002 all Hell broke loose!
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,168
    nunu said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    John_M said:

    Anecdote alert (Scottish edition):

    Out with friends for a fortifying drink last night. All early 40s, professional jobs. Balance of Yes/No voters in Indyref. All voting Remain.

    Very worried about EU ref as their parents (all were indyref No voters) had already postal voted, or were planning to vote Leave and were pretty passionate about it. Affluent central Scotland middle class types.

    You think 2 or 3 Leavers in that company are going to admit to it?
    I think we have to respect anecdota. If I was a professional middle class person in (say) my 30s with children and a mortgage I'd be voting Remain. Family before country. Country before party. Entirely rational and respectable.
    The Indyref No voters were extremely vociferous in telling me why there were voting No at the time, and thought I was stark raving mad for voting Yes. We've been friends for 20+ years and we have very robust dialogue about politics. They are not shrinking violets.

    The more crucial thing is middle class parents (mostly aged over 70) unanimously voting Leave. Doubt we'll see a thumping Remain vote, as per early polls. Might be more of an Indyref style 55-45 split, which wouldn't keep Remain afloat.
    Most polls have at least 60% voting Leave in Scotland
    There was an STV Ipsos Mori only yesterday morning showing 53% Remain (down 13 points).
    It also had Leave on just 32%
    http://www.edinburghnews.net/index.php/sid/244999915
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-36553552
    32% Leave still leaves more than enough for Scotland and NI to tip the balance if England is neck and neck
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    MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    @Morris_Dancer and @GIN1138

    Thanks.
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,920

    A good and thoughtful header by Roger. Thanks.

    Roger's threads have been a highlight of #EURef.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,602

    NEW THREAD. ABOUT AV. NEW THREAD. ABOUT AV

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    YellowSubmarineYellowSubmarine Posts: 2,740
    This is interesting given the most recent president was Eastbourne where the Liberal Democrats beat the incumbents to win the seat. http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/jo-cox-death-conservatives-will-not-contest-murdered-labour-mp-seat-batley-spen-thomas-mair-a7087246.html
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    GIN1138 said:

    Mr. Royale, just a few more days and it'll be over :)

    I'll be pleased when it's all over as well.
    Me to. Im tired. Im dreading someone postponing it. Never mind the politics - we would have tongo through this again
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    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,142
    NoEasyDay said:

    There is now a petition to stop the referendum

    "Cancel the planned referendum on Britain's continued membership of the EU.

    According to the BBC (as at the 26th February 2016) 444 MPs of (almost) all parties have declared their support for Britain staying a member of the European Union on the basis of the reform package negotiated by the Prime Minister, David Cameron."

    So I saw on facebook, I of course commented that I am glad to remain had conceded defeat.

    Oh it had a grand total of 7,500 signatures.

    No prizes for guessing which constituencies have the most signatories:

    http://petitionmap.unboxedconsulting.com/?petition=123450&area=lon

    Outside London Bristol West has 122, Brighton Pavilion has 104 and Doncaster North has zero. EdM is really suited to his constituency.

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    RogerRoger Posts: 18,904
    edited June 2016
    PlatoSaid said:

    John_M said:

    NoEasyDay said:

    “Free at last. Free at last. Thank God almighty we’re free at last.” I wonder whether the world will feel as admiring of his campaign as they did MLK’s.

    Who or what is "MLK"

    I'm sorry to use NoEasyDay as an example, but I think it might (weakly) reinforce my point. Martin Luther King is very real to me. Less so to succeeding generations. Of course, it may be that it's simply a relatively uncommon acronym that's caused the confusion.
    It's the Eddie Izzard effect. He's of no relevance to the yoof vote he's seeking to engage.

    Once your own era has surpassed your democraphic target audience, it's a cut-through fail.

    MLK means nothing to me bar PBS documentaries. The Winter of Discontent feels very real. The Cuban Missile crisis is history - whilst CND was huge in my younger days. I picked up stories about WW2 from my grandparents/parents re evacuees and rationing.

    We all have a timeframe we use to judge things by. Some folk fail to realise this.
    You haven't heard of Martin Luther King? I'm surprised. It's not really an age thing. It's the fact he's the most famous civil rights leader in history. That 'I Have a Dream' is one one of the most famous speeches ever made and that the film 'Selma' was a big hit within the last few years. I wonder if any Americans haven't heard of him?
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    GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    GIN1138 said:

    A good and thoughtful header by Roger. Thanks.

    Roger's threads have been a highlight of #EURef.
    The threads have been excellent because they are on advertising; an area he is knowledgeable in.

    He lets that down with his political comments below the line; an area in which he is woefully ignorant.

    Still, I'm all for celebrating the positive. Please keep writing the great thread headers Roger.
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    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,142
    Roger said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    John_M said:

    NoEasyDay said:

    “Free at last. Free at last. Thank God almighty we’re free at last.” I wonder whether the world will feel as admiring of his campaign as they did MLK’s.

    Who or what is "MLK"

    I'm sorry to use NoEasyDay as an example, but I think it might (weakly) reinforce my point. Martin Luther King is very real to me. Less so to succeeding generations. Of course, it may be that it's simply a relatively uncommon acronym that's caused the confusion.
    It's the Eddie Izzard effect. He's of no relevance to the yoof vote he's seeking to engage.

    Once your own era has surpassed your democraphic target audience, it's a cut-through fail.

    MLK means nothing to me bar PBS documentaries. The Winter of Discontent feels very real. The Cuban Missile crisis is history - whilst CND was huge in my younger days. I picked up stories about WW2 from my grandparents/parents re evacuees and rationing.

    We all have a timeframe we use to judge things by. Some folk fail to realise this.
    You haven't heard of Martin Luther King? I'm surprised. It's not really an age thing. It's the fact he's the most famous civil rights leader in history. That 'I Have a Dream' is one one of the most famous speeches ever made and that the film 'Selma' was a big hit within the last few years. I wonder if any Americans haven't heard of him?
    Considering they have Martin Luther King as an official holiday I doubt it.

    I think Plato is right - for a younger generation Nelson Mandela is much better known that MLK.

    Thanks for the thread headers.
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,900

    This is interesting given the most recent president was Eastbourne where the Liberal Democrats beat the incumbents to win the seat. http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/jo-cox-death-conservatives-will-not-contest-murdered-labour-mp-seat-batley-spen-thomas-mair-a7087246.html

    LD and UKIP also not contesting
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,763

    REMAIN can now safely campaign on immigration.

    REMAIN have emailed me Jo Cox's article in the Yorkshire Post about why Brexit is not the answer to concerns about immigration.

    http://www.yorkshirepost.co.uk/news/opinion/jo-cox-brexit-is-no-answer-to-real-concerns-on-immigration-1-7956822

    In three days ?

    A bit late I'd say
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    geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,177
    BBC News, John Pienaar: "brutal personal campaigning we've seen in this referendum". Has it been brutal?
This discussion has been closed.