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Thanks - good to have someone who understands psephology!MarkSenior said:0 -
@TheRedRag: It looks like Labour have lost EVERY seat in both Glasgow and Edinburgh, what is AMAZING in nobody seems surprised.0
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Carmichael scandal doesn't seem to have damaged the Lib Dems up there. Still one outpost that the nationalist surge can't stretch to. Nigh on 5k Lib Dem majority.0
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John Mann on Sky saying it will be Cataclysmic if Lab come 3rd in Scotland!
One interesting story, the Labour candidate in the Sheffield by-election is the widow of the man whose untimely death from cancer caused the by-election.0 -
On the walk to vote from train station I decided that increasing the blue vote to hurt Labour was more important than voting for the better councillor team. I did however still vote for the Lib Dem councillor that I have dealt with and know personally (through those dealings)philiph said:
Are you a sentimental romantic without the courage of you convictions?Floater said:
I was going to give all 3 of my votes to Lib Dems - I got in the booth and gave 2 to the blues - sorry Lib Dems!philiph said:I feel a LibDem surge welling up.
Voted for them twice today. Haven't done that for 20 years or so.
Or maybe you are more sensible than me!0 -
Reasonably good result for Labour in Longbridge / Birmingham which was Jess Phillips' council seat until today.
http://www.birminghammail.co.uk/news/midlands-news/birmingham-council-election-results-2016-112852240 -
Early betfair indications look good for Ruth.0
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London is not immune either (as I recall the London regional swing was much less than the national one last year) and UNS is not a bad predictor even in the world of ARSE and ELBOW.nunu said:
London is not Nuneaton!foxinsoxuk said:
What sort of swing Lab/Con is needed to give Zac the job? We look to be in the ballpark using my guessing stick.TheScreamingEagles said:Nuneaton!!! Oh happy memories
https://twitter.com/Samfr/status/7283644442674831360 -
Sadly, there are few on the Left who are listening to Mann just now.Scott_P said:@wallaceme: John Mann on Sky: "We were all told Jeremy was going to be bringing these 5 million voters who haven't voted before...that hasn't happened."
But he is right.0 -
LDs have held Orkney in first Scottish Parliament result
LD 7,096, SNP 2,562, Tories 435, Labour 304
Swing 16% SNP to LD0 -
LIB DEM SURGE
Orkney
Lib Dems 67.4% +31.6
SNP 24.3% -0.8
Conservatives 4.1% -4.3
Labour 2.9% -2.70 -
Perhaps people finally got sick of voting for the donkey with the red rossette.MarqueeMark said:
If Labour have lost every seat in Glasgow - GLASGOW FFS!!!- then let me stop you right there. Labour have ALREADY had a very bad night, whatever else happens.Scott_P said:@BBCsarahsmith: Labour seem pretty sure they have lost every Glasgow constituency seat and fear a very bad night across Scotland.
That's like the Republicans losing Utah. It's just explody-head stuff.0 -
Ye-es, but in London? So far I haven't seen any evidence that Labour will underperform the polls in London.foxinsoxuk said:
What sort of swing Lab/Con is needed to give Zac the job? We look to be in the ballpark using my guessing stick.TheScreamingEagles said:Nuneaton!!! Oh happy memories
https://twitter.com/Samfr/status/7283644442674831360 -
Labour have gained Wesley ward in Birmingham from Con0
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You should know that they are a sleeper cell yet to be activated!Scott_P said:@wallaceme: John Mann on Sky: "We were all told Jeremy was going to be bringing these 5 million voters who haven't voted before...that hasn't happened."
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Nice swing to Lib Dems in Orkney
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LDs have the first MSP, in the Orkneys.0
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Excellent result for the Lib Dems. Ideas that the court case would damage them seem somewhat misplaced. Carmichael must be having a good laugh.0
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Will Mann will be called in for another meeting in regards his behaviour?0
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BBC reporter "you voted for first time today, how was it for you"
LOL - I like voting but.....................................0 -
bloody children voting.0
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SDP Mk II would have more hope against a divided Tory party.HYUFD said:
Where is the SDP Mk II going to win under FPTP, Blairites will not even be able to do a deal with Farron's LDs. They will have to grit their teeth and wait for Chuka in 2020Mortimer said:
Blairites won't stand for that.HYUFD said:
Which is why I think it will be McDonnell, not Corbyn, who leads Labour in 2020Mortimer said:John McDonnell scares me rigid. His ability to peddle hard left (and frankly farcical) leadership lines in such a believable and, dare I say it, empathic way is far, far better than Corbyn.
Would trigger SDP Mk II.
Only reason that Corbyn is still in place is because of his incompetence.
The worry from a Blairite POV is that McDonnell does enough to survive.0 -
6 seats declared so far in Weymouth/Portland 1 LD hold 3 Lab holds 1 Lab gain from Con 1 Con hold0
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@alexmassie: The Nats might have won Orkney if their zoomers hadn't launched a vendetta against Carmichael.0
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Oh god bbc propaganda on 16/17 year old voting AGAIN...And we have them all night!0
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@JamieRoss7 The Lib Dems are buoyant. They're talking of winning Orkney, Shetland, North East Fife, and Edinburgh Western. We'll see...
Well the first one has been chalked off - can believe Shetland after this. The other two - hmmmmmm?0 -
If that donkey would shed the stupid red rosette it may well win in many constituencies as the best candidate.FrancisUrquhart said:
Perhaps people finally got sick of voting for the donkey with the red rossette.MarqueeMark said:
If Labour have lost every seat in Glasgow - GLASGOW FFS!!!- then let me stop you right there. Labour have ALREADY had a very bad night, whatever else happens.Scott_P said:@BBCsarahsmith: Labour seem pretty sure they have lost every Glasgow constituency seat and fear a very bad night across Scotland.
That's like the Republicans losing Utah. It's just explody-head stuff.0 -
@euanmccolm: the orkney four cost the snp any chance of that seat. the fucking dolts.0
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Under PR maybe, not under FPTP. If McDonnell fails to lead the largest party or get enough seats to form a government the Blairite MPs will oust him but he will probably step down anywayMortimer said:
SDP Mk II would have more hope against a divided Tory party.HYUFD said:
Where is the SDP Mk II going to win under FPTP, Blairites will not even be able to do a deal with Farron's LDs. They will have to grit their teeth and wait for Chuka in 2020Mortimer said:
Blairites won't stand for that.HYUFD said:
Which is why I think it will be McDonnell, not Corbyn, who leads Labour in 2020Mortimer said:John McDonnell scares me rigid. His ability to peddle hard left (and frankly farcical) leadership lines in such a believable and, dare I say it, empathic way is far, far better than Corbyn.
Would trigger SDP Mk II.
Only reason that Corbyn is still in place is because of his incompetence.
The worry from a Blairite POV is that McDonnell does enough to survive.0 -
Can we see some 16% SNP to CON swings soon please?0
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Every time they cross over to 'a panel of young people' , the sound on my TV mysteriously goes on to mute.
I have no idea why that is.0 -
RUTHERGLEN RESULT DECLARATION0
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After last year, a 16% swing in Scotland isn't that impressive.0
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Labour hold St Albans: Batchwood.0
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Rutherglen SNP majority of nearly 4k over Labour0
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Thurrock Council @thurrockcouncil
Local election result for Tilbury St Chads: UKIP 606; LAB 570; CON 89; -- UKIP GAIN0 -
Rutherglen
SNP 15,222, Lab 11,479, Tories 3,718, LD 2,533.
SNP gain from Labour, swing of 9%0 -
James Kelly toast0
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I can't work out which is worse the pressure gauge on sky or the floor map on BBC which is really hard to make out & vine stands all over it.0
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South Tyneside complete.
http://www.southtyneside.gov.uk/applications/2/elections/LocalGovernment.aspx?id=30
All Labour hold and 1 gain from Con0 -
Nats so loud they are breaking the microphone.0
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Rutherglen 9% Lab to SNP swing!0
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9% swing from Lab to SNP.0
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Labour vote down 11% in Rutherglen. Ouch. Not close.0
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Labour hold South Tyneside0
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A bit hard for the SNP to break the swingometer after their advance in 2011!TheScreamingEagles said:After last year, a 16% swing in Scotland isn't that impressive.
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John Curtice speaks, swing in Rutherglen indicates Lab with no consituencies at Holyrood0
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outrageous, expel them from Hertfordshire and they can become greater luton.AndyJS said:Labour hold St Albans: Batchwood.
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@bbclaurak: SNP wins Rutherglen - 9pc swing, early suggestion that Labour won't get any constituency seats0
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Source BBC news If Rutherglen is replicated across Scotland Labour would win NO constituency seats0
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Huw Edwards looked like he was going to start crying.0
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James Kelly should be saved by the list. He's third on Glasgow list.0
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@rosschawkins: Labour Portsmouth leader @John_Ferrett tells us UKIP polling 40% of vote there, Labour lost significant numbers to UKIP - a disaster he says0
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I have been predicting that for a couple of months.TheScreamingEagles said:John Curtice speaks, swing in Rutherglen indicates Lab with no consituencies at Holyrood
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It was a 16% swing to the Lib Demshunchman said:
A bit hard for the SNP to break the swingometer after their advance in 2011!TheScreamingEagles said:After last year, a 16% swing in Scotland isn't that impressive.
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UKIP 3 gains so far - will be much harder next year when the benchmark is 2013 when the UKIP advance really started.
How long before Labour swing into negative change in seats territory? Up 3 at the moment.0 -
Incidentally if Zac wins I will be very sad. Not just because of my £100 loss (I may have mentioned that bet slightly) but because the polls will have been shown to be total bullshit. Not just "wrong but barely within MOE" but "totally and utterly wrong in a great heap of wrongness" way
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Thought you were talking about Rutherglen TSE!TheScreamingEagles said:
It was a 16% swing to the Lib Demshunchman said:
A bit hard for the SNP to break the swingometer after their advance in 2011!TheScreamingEagles said:After last year, a 16% swing in Scotland isn't that impressive.
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@nicholaswatt: Been leaked copy of @UKLabour internal 'close of poll script' with Q&A for loyal frontbenchers to help answer media Qs. On @BBCNews liveblog0
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Why would he step down? You're fundamentally misunderstanding the hard left takeover of the Labour party.HYUFD said:
Under PR maybe, not under FPTP. If McDonnell fails to lead the largest party or get enough seats to form a government the Blairite MPs will oust him but he will probably step down anywayMortimer said:
SDP Mk II would have more hope against a divided Tory party.HYUFD said:
Where is the SDP Mk II going to win under FPTP, Blairites will not even be able to do a deal with Farron's LDs. They will have to grit their teeth and wait for Chuka in 2020Mortimer said:
Blairites won't stand for that.HYUFD said:
Which is why I think it will be McDonnell, not Corbyn, who leads Labour in 2020Mortimer said:John McDonnell scares me rigid. His ability to peddle hard left (and frankly farcical) leadership lines in such a believable and, dare I say it, empathic way is far, far better than Corbyn.
Would trigger SDP Mk II.
Only reason that Corbyn is still in place is because of his incompetence.
The worry from a Blairite POV is that McDonnell does enough to survive.
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Holy shit - 29% vote share prediction for Labour
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I think your cash is safe..viewcode said:Incidentally if Zac wins I will be very sad. Not just because of my £100 loss (I may have mentioned that bet slightly) but because the polls will have been shown to be total bullshit. Not just "wrong but barely within MOE" but "totally and utterly wrong in a great heap of wrongness" way
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Chris Ship @chrisshipitv
In Portsmouth Labour councillor @John_Ferrett says the Labour leadership is 'absolutely incompetent' @BBCRadio40 -
Labour refusal to talk about independence seems to be hurting them. Separate nationalist Labour and unionist Labour parties to emerge someone suggesting!Plato_Says said:Source BBC news If Rutherglen is replicated across Scotland Labour would win NO constituency seats
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Thurrock Council @thurrockcouncil
Local election result for Aveley & Uplands: UKIP 1011; LAB 449; CON 392; -- UKIP GAIN0 -
Well an apparantly terrorist sympathising, jew hating leadership will do that to a party.Scott_P said:@rosschawkins: Labour Portsmouth leader @John_Ferrett tells us UKIP polling 40% of vote there, Labour lost significant numbers to UKIP - a disaster he says
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Turnout in Dundee (from the count) at 51% and 51.8% in the 2 constituencies. 2 very easy SNP holds guaranteed but poor turnout. Again wonder if the Labour vote has turned out.0
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Danny won't be pleased - Curtice finally compares to 2011 (after the obvious comparisons to 2012) and suggests Labour are doing worse than then, too.0
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BBC currently projecting a national Tory lead of 1%.0
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Curtice still getting in terrible night for Tories...0
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Mcdonnell on Beeb still, that leaves to come then Abbott, Clive Lewis or erm Ken (oh no maybe not)0
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The Labour candidate at Shetland count
http://twitter.com/JJShetland/status/728373112451022848/photo/10 -
South Tyneside changes compared to 2012:
Lab -0.7%
Con +2.3%
UKIP +12.3%
Greens +7.9%
Ind -13.5%
Lib -1.7%
Others -6.6%0 -
Early days but are Labour doing better in the locals than was predicted?0
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He failed to win the election that is why and as I said if he did not the MPs would have the excuse to oust him they did not pre-electionMortimer said:
Why would he step down? You're fundamentally misunderstanding the hard left takeover of the Labour party.HYUFD said:
Under PR maybe, not under FPTP. If McDonnell fails to lead the largest party or get enough seats to form a government the Blairite MPs will oust him but he will probably step down anywayMortimer said:
SDP Mk II would have more hope against a divided Tory party.HYUFD said:
Where is the SDP Mk II going to win under FPTP, Blairites will not even be able to do a deal with Farron's LDs. They will have to grit their teeth and wait for Chuka in 2020Mortimer said:
Blairites won't stand for that.HYUFD said:
Which is why I think it will be McDonnell, not Corbyn, who leads Labour in 2020Mortimer said:John McDonnell scares me rigid. His ability to peddle hard left (and frankly farcical) leadership lines in such a believable and, dare I say it, empathic way is far, far better than Corbyn.
Would trigger SDP Mk II.
Only reason that Corbyn is still in place is because of his incompetence.
The worry from a Blairite POV is that McDonnell does enough to survive.0 -
As I said, misunderstanding the hard left takeover of Labour leadership.HYUFD said:
He failed to win the election that is why and as I said if he did not the MPs would have the excuse to oust him they did not pre-electionMortimer said:
Why would he step down? You're fundamentally misunderstanding the hard left takeover of the Labour party.HYUFD said:
Under PR maybe, not under FPTP. If McDonnell fails to lead the largest party or get enough seats to form a government the Blairite MPs will oust him but he will probably step down anywayMortimer said:
SDP Mk II would have more hope against a divided Tory party.HYUFD said:
Where is the SDP Mk II going to win under FPTP, Blairites will not even be able to do a deal with Farron's LDs. They will have to grit their teeth and wait for Chuka in 2020Mortimer said:
Blairites won't stand for that.HYUFD said:
Which is why I think it will be McDonnell, not Corbyn, who leads Labour in 2020Mortimer said:John McDonnell scares me rigid. His ability to peddle hard left (and frankly farcical) leadership lines in such a believable and, dare I say it, empathic way is far, far better than Corbyn.
Would trigger SDP Mk II.
Only reason that Corbyn is still in place is because of his incompetence.
The worry from a Blairite POV is that McDonnell does enough to survive.0 -
Labour hold Nuneaton0
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That's what I was thinking. How many wrong polls do we have to get before we go "uh, just wait a moment..."MikeL said:What will tonight's results mean re accuracy of current opinion polls?
OK, you could say locals are different to a GE.
But if Lab has underperformed polls then it may imply pollsters changes to methodologies haven't done the trick.0 -
SKY - Labour vote reduced due to people moving to UKIP (In Wales)0
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That's the vibe I'm feeling as well.DavidL said:Early days but are Labour doing better in the locals than was predicted?
Has Tom Watson lost weight?0 -
Conservatives hold Edgbaston by 78 votes.0
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Having just watched him he didn't say that at all. You really do post some obsessive rubbish about the BBC.FrancisUrquhart said:Curtice still getting in terrible night for Tories...
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Clare Dobson MEN
And we have the first Tory gain of thr night in Westhoughton North and Chew Moor0 -
Dan Hodges @DPJHodges · 7m7 minutes ago
Labour sources saying pattern emerging of fall in turnout in key Labour areas, but increase in key Tory areas.
zac o'clock0
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