Your argument is based on the premise that the "cycle" is defined by the general elections. The 2012 elections were probably more influenced by the ominshambles budget, rather than the fact it was a year from the previous election.
How are you even going to make comparisons in wards where no election took place in 2011?
That goes against political history, though. Every sitting government almost always gets its best results of an electoral cycle in the first year after a General Election -- the only exception was the 1979-83 cycle, where the Falklands Factor pushed Tories to a better performance in 1982 than they got in 1980.
You're sounding like Hunchman.
This electoral cycle rubbish is also pointless because only recently did we regularise the general elections to every 5 years.
You want to compare to 2011 because comparison to 2012, when the same wards and councils were contested and thus the obvious comparator, is going to make Labour look like a hopeless political party.
Given the miracle of last year, I'm giving Betfair punters circa £125 of the profits back tonight by doing exactly that... and cos Montie has been sticking the knife in to Zac tonight. Now that is a contra-indicator.
Not surprised if turnouts are down. Here in Birmingham there was almost no inkling that any elections were going on. If Ian Kershaw was trying to kill democracy in the city, he seems to have succeeded...
Hong Kong is full of young French people these days, all speaking good English. I think the younger generation there is much less Francophone than their elders. They seem much more outward-looking.
I'd agree. In the 90s, finding a French person speaking English outside of international business, diplomacy or science was hard to do. In this trip to Lille, hardly the cosmopolitan hub of France, I was struck by the fact that almost everyone in the hospitality industry (hotels, restaurants, coffee shops and sanwicheries, spoke English and WANTED to practice it!!! Even the people at the rail station ticket counter and information booth spoke English, I was stunned.
Also agreed (tho the English spoken down here in the Rhone Valley is still lamentable.
The French are certainly friendlier and keener to please. They've lost the last of that aloofness, the inbred sense of superiority. Decline has maybe made them nicer. A fine irony.
At least the regional cheeses are still very French and superb!
Where in the Rhone?
Yep, the cheeses are still fab. Marvellously diverse.
I'm in the Beaujolais. And very nice it is, apart from the tucker.
On BBC4 TOTP81 is playing the Birdy song with people dressed as birds On BBC2 John McDonnell is expecting steady Labour progress towards 2020 There is only so much crazy I can take.
John McDonnell scares me rigid. His ability to peddle hard left (and frankly farcical) leadership lines in such a believable and, dare I say it, empathic way is far, far better than Corbyn.
Given the miracle of last year, I'm giving Betfair punters circa £125 of the profits back tonight by doing exactly that... and cos Montie has been sticking the knife in to Zac tonight. Now that is a contra-indicator.
If he pulls this off, then Sir Lynton Crosby = Jurgen Klopp
If the Tories beat Labour in Scotland tonight then it will just be a return to the 1950's when they outpolled Labour in the 1951, 1955 and 1959 general elections:
Mike Gapes @MikeGapes Labour losing seats in first year of opposition after Tory fiasco of recent weeks is very bad where is Straight talking, honest politics ?
Given the miracle of last year, I'm giving Betfair punters circa £125 of the profits back tonight by doing exactly that... and cos Montie has been sticking the knife in to Zac tonight. Now that is a contra-indicator.
If he pulls this of, then Sir Lynton Crosby = Jurgen Klopp
Given the miracle of last year, I'm giving Betfair punters circa £125 of the profits back tonight by doing exactly that... and cos Montie has been sticking the knife in to Zac tonight. Now that is a contra-indicator.
If he pulls this off, then Sir Lynton Crosby = Jurgen Klopp
Given the miracle of last year, I'm giving Betfair punters circa £125 of the profits back tonight by doing exactly that... and cos Montie has been sticking the knife in to Zac tonight. Now that is a contra-indicator.
If he pulls this off, then Sir Lynton Crosby = Jurgen Klopp
Wasn't aware of any of Crosby's clients finishing 7th
John McDonnell scares me rigid. His ability to peddle hard left (and frankly farcical) leadership lines in such a believable and, dare I say it, empathic way is far, far better than Corbyn.
Robert Harris quipped earlier that McIRA reminds him of a Met police chief.
Given the miracle of last year, I'm giving Betfair punters circa £125 of the profits back tonight by doing exactly that... and cos Montie has been sticking the knife in to Zac tonight. Now that is a contra-indicator.
If he pulls this off, then Sir Lynton Crosby = Jurgen Klopp
Wasn't aware of any of Crosby's clients finishing 7th
John McDonnell scares me rigid. His ability to peddle hard left (and frankly farcical) leadership lines in such a believable and, dare I say it, empathic way is far, far better than Corbyn.
Which is why I think it will be McDonnell, not Corbyn, who leads Labour in 2020
John McDonnell scares me rigid. His ability to peddle hard left (and frankly farcical) leadership lines in such a believable and, dare I say it, empathic way is far, far better than Corbyn.
Now I have to disagree from a Labour-pessimist POV!
Corbyn atleast comes across as a nice enough guy, McDonnell comes across as quite slippery and unpleasant. Not to mention his ties to terrorists are deeper than Corbyn's ties (and certainly much more than the laughable claims of Sadiq Khan's "links").
John McDonnell scares me rigid. His ability to peddle hard left (and frankly farcical) leadership lines in such a believable and, dare I say it, empathic way is far, far better than Corbyn.
Which is why I think it will be McDonnell, not Corbyn, who leads Labour in 2020
Issue with McDonnell is he completely lacks judgement and is very easy to wind up - little red book incident not an aberration.
Given the miracle of last year, I'm giving Betfair punters circa £125 of the profits back tonight by doing exactly that... and cos Montie has been sticking the knife in to Zac tonight. Now that is a contra-indicator.
If he pulls this off, then Sir Lynton Crosby = Jurgen Klopp
Wasn't aware of any of Crosby's clients finishing 7th
Premier League meh.
Europa League is where it's at.
for man u fans it'll be something to do on Thursdays.... nice for them to see Europe finally...
John McDonnell scares me rigid. His ability to peddle hard left (and frankly farcical) leadership lines in such a believable and, dare I say it, empathic way is far, far better than Corbyn.
Which is why I think it will be McDonnell, not Corbyn, who leads Labour in 2020
Blairites won't stand for that.
Would trigger SDP Mk II.
Only reason that Corbyn is still in place is because of his incompetence.
John McDonnell scares me rigid. His ability to peddle hard left (and frankly farcical) leadership lines in such a believable and, dare I say it, empathic way is far, far better than Corbyn.
Fully agree, lets just hope he does not make it to the top spot.
John McDonnell scares me rigid. His ability to peddle hard left (and frankly farcical) leadership lines in such a believable and, dare I say it, empathic way is far, far better than Corbyn.
Now I have to disagree from a Labour-pessimist POV!
Corbyn atleast comes across as a nice enough guy, McDonnell comes across as quite slippery and unpleasant. Not to mention his ties to terrorists are deeper than Corbyn's ties (and certainly much more than the laughable claims of Sadiq Khan's "links").
John McDonnell scares me rigid. His ability to peddle hard left (and frankly farcical) leadership lines in such a believable and, dare I say it, empathic way is far, far better than Corbyn.
Which is why I think it will be McDonnell, not Corbyn, who leads Labour in 2020
I'm not sure the new Labour membership will vote en masse for McDonnell, tho. He hasn't got that "authentic" feel that Corbyn offers, the vest and megaphone shtick which made Jezbollah so popular.
Despite being arguably even further Left, McDonnell seems "smoother", polished, more Blairy. This will put off many.
Indeed but if Corbyn is assassinated McDonnell is the closest the membership can get to him and as you say he is more competent than Jezza, he could be Michael Howard to Corbyn's IDS
John McDonnell scares me rigid. His ability to peddle hard left (and frankly farcical) leadership lines in such a believable and, dare I say it, empathic way is far, far better than Corbyn.
Now I have to disagree from a Labour-pessimist POV!
Corbyn atleast comes across as a nice enough guy, McDonnell comes across as quite slippery and unpleasant. Not to mention his ties to terrorists are deeper than Corbyn's ties (and certainly much more than the laughable claims of Sadiq Khan's "links").
Corbyn also comes across as ineffectual though, which I think is his biggest problem of all (there's some competition, admittedly). McDonnell doesn't have the same hapless air about him.
I think the more electable Conservative leaders (eg Cameron, May, even Boris) would easily beat a McDonnell-led Lab. Not sure about Gove.
Iain Gray on BBC parliament from Haddington lol. You'd think after the pasting he took from Salmond all those years ago, he would have gracefully retired from the scene!
@BBCsarahsmith: Labour seem pretty sure they have lost every Glasgow constituency seat and fear a very bad night across Scotland.
If Labour have lost every seat in Glasgow - GLASGOW FFS!!!- then let me stop you right there. Labour have ALREADY had a very bad night, whatever else happens.
That's like the Republicans losing Utah. It's just explody-head stuff.
John McDonnell scares me rigid. His ability to peddle hard left (and frankly farcical) leadership lines in such a believable and, dare I say it, empathic way is far, far better than Corbyn.
Which is why I think it will be McDonnell, not Corbyn, who leads Labour in 2020
Blairites won't stand for that.
Would trigger SDP Mk II.
Only reason that Corbyn is still in place is because of his incompetence.
Where is the SDP Mk II going to win under FPTP, Blairites will not even be able to do a deal with Farron's LDs. They will have to grit their teeth and wait for Chuka in 2020
@BBCsarahsmith: Labour seem pretty sure they have lost every Glasgow constituency seat and fear a very bad night across Scotland.
If Labour have lost every seat in Glasgow - GLASGOW FFS!!!- then let me stop you right there. Labour have ALREADY had a very bad night, whatever else happens.
That's like the Republicans losing Utah. It's just explody-head stuff.
Hardly unexpected after the Labour wipeout there last year!
@wallaceme: John Mann on Sky: "We were all told Jeremy was going to be bringing these 5 million voters who haven't voted before...that hasn't happened."
Comments
Alex Salmond
"There would have to be a second referendum if we are dragged out of Europe against our will"
Message ends.....
I would like Khan to win, keeps Corbyn in place and gives us a fascinating by election in Tooting.
https://twitter.com/Samfr/status/728364444267483136
Voted for them twice today. Haven't done that for 20 years or so.
Current state of English councillors (0.23am)
Labour 59 (+4)
LibDems 6 (-1)
Cons 4 (0)
Indy 3 (-3)
On BBC2 John McDonnell is expecting steady Labour progress towards 2020
There is only so much crazy I can take.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elections_in_Scotland
Craig Woodhouse Retweeted Mike Gapes
It's complex.
Craig Woodhouse added,
Mike Gapes @MikeGapes Labour losing seats in first year of opposition after Tory fiasco of recent weeks is very bad where is Straight talking, honest politics ?
4 retweets 3 likes
I happened to watch an episode of Camberwick green with my lad the other night (thanks, Radiohead!).
He loved it
Is Brian Cant still OK to like, untainted by the disease of the 70s?
Kevin Alcock @kevina364
Swing in Bury so far 5.4% Lab-Con against 2012.
Wasn't aware of any of Crosby's clients finishing 7th
I think he's dangerously plausible.
Europa League is where it's at.
https://twitter.com/labourpress/status/532847279691288576
Labour source: Rutherglen (James Kelly) has gone to SNP by several thousand votes. #SP16
Lab -6.7%
LD -4.9%
UKIP +13.2%
Con +1.4%
Greens +2.1%
Ind +0.5%
Others -5.7%
Corbyn atleast comes across as a nice enough guy, McDonnell comes across as quite slippery and unpleasant. Not to mention his ties to terrorists are deeper than Corbyn's ties (and certainly much more than the laughable claims of Sadiq Khan's "links").
I was going to bed, but this is to delicious to miss.
Lab +2
LD -2
Would trigger SDP Mk II.
Only reason that Corbyn is still in place is because of his incompetence.
Alan Roden
Tory source: Affluent areas of Edinburgh currently have Tories on nearly double the Labour vote. #sp16
I'm glad you find him slippery though!
https://twitter.com/georgeeaton/status/728368463870332929
Or maybe you are more sensible than me!
Lab -7.4%
Con +1.3%
UKIP +6.3%
LD +1.4%
Greens +1.6%
Ind -4.0%
Others +0.8%
stowe = notts (xmpnp patch)
Edit God, I was slow!
I think the more electable Conservative leaders (eg Cameron, May, even Boris) would easily beat a McDonnell-led Lab. Not sure about Gove.
That's like the Republicans losing Utah. It's just explody-head stuff.
Orkney declaration.
216.06 £3601@1.04
125.00 £2500@1.05
150.00 £2500@1.06
So if you bet 491.06 and Zac wins you'd get £8601. Still time if anybody's willing...
OK, you could say locals are different to a GE.
But if Lab has underperformed polls then it may imply pollsters changes to methodologies haven't done the trick.