UKIP eating into WWC vote could make all our discussions about Labour needing a centrist leader moot anyway. Might simply be no way back for a party that has abandoned its historic core supporters in favour of identity politics....
John McDonnell scares me rigid. His ability to peddle hard left (and frankly farcical) leadership lines in such a believable and, dare I say it, empathic way is far, far better than Corbyn.
Which is why I think it will be McDonnell, not Corbyn, who leads Labour in 2020
Blairites won't stand for that.
Would trigger SDP Mk II.
Only reason that Corbyn is still in place is because of his incompetence.
Where is the SDP Mk II going to win under FPTP, Blairites will not even be able to do a deal with Farron's LDs. They will have to grit their teeth and wait for Chuka in 2020
SDP Mk II would have more hope against a divided Tory party.
The worry from a Blairite POV is that McDonnell does enough to survive.
Under PR maybe, not under FPTP. If McDonnell fails to lead the largest party or get enough seats to form a government the Blairite MPs will oust him but he will probably step down anyway
Why would he step down? You're fundamentally misunderstanding the hard left takeover of the Labour party.
He failed to win the election that is why and as I said if he did not the MPs would have the excuse to oust him they did not pre-election
As I said, misunderstanding the hard left takeover of Labour leadership.
No, that is practical reality. The hard left do not have a majority of MPs, so MPs can oust the Labour leader if he fails to perform and failing to win a general election would give them the mandate to do so and they would do just that
John McDonnell scares me rigid. His ability to peddle hard left (and frankly farcical) leadership lines in such a believable and, dare I say it, empathic way is far, far better than Corbyn.
Which is why I think it will be McDonnell, not Corbyn, who leads Labour in 2020
Blairites won't stand for that.
Would trigger SDP Mk II.
Only reason that Corbyn is still in place is because of his incompetence.
Where is the SDP Mk II going to win under FPTP, Blairites will not even be able to do a deal with Farron's LDs. They will have to grit their teeth and wait for Chuka in 2020
SDP Mk II would have more hope against a divided Tory party.
The worry from a Blairite POV is that McDonnell does enough to survive.
Under PR maybe, not under FPTP. If McDonnell fails to lead the largest party or get enough seats to form a government the Blairite MPs will oust him but he will probably step down anyway
Why would he step down? You're fundamentally misunderstanding the hard left takeover of the Labour party.
He failed to win the election that is why and as I said if he did not the MPs would have the excuse to oust him they did not pre-election
As I said, misunderstanding the hard left takeover of Labour leadership.
No, that is practical reality. The left do not have a majority of MPs, so MPs can oust the Labour leader if he fails to perform and failing to win a general election would give them the mandate to do so and they would do just that
Only for the die hard membership to elect another hard lefter.
UKIP eating into WWC vote could make all our discussions about Labour needing a centrist leader moot anyway. Might simply be no way back for a party that has abandoned its historic core supporters in favour of identity politics....
UKIP has a wonderful opportunity over the next few years with the WWC vote providing Corbyn and McDonnell continue to head Labour into an electoral cul-de-sac
John McDonnell scares me rigid. His ability to peddle hard left (and frankly farcical) leadership lines in such a believable and, dare I say it, empathic way is far, far better than Corbyn.
Which is why I think it will be McDonnell, not Corbyn, who leads Labour in 2020
Blairites won't stand for that.
Would trigger SDP Mk II.
Only reason that Corbyn is still in place is because of his incompetence.
Where is the SDP Mk II going to win under FPTP, Blairites will not even be able to do a deal with Farron's LDs. They will have to grit their teeth and wait for Chuka in 2020
SDP Mk II would have more hope against a divided Tory party.
The worry from a Blairite POV is that McDonnell does enough to survive.
Under PR maybe, not under FPTP. If McDonnell fails to lead the largest party or get enough seats to form a government the Blairite MPs will oust him but he will probably step down anyway
Why would he step down? You're fundamentally misunderstanding the hard left takeover of the Labour party.
He failed to win the election that is why and as I said if he did not the MPs would have the excuse to oust him they did not pre-election
As I said, misunderstanding the hard left takeover of Labour leadership.
No, that is practical reality. The left do not have a majority of MPs, so MPs can oust the Labour leader if he fails to perform and failing to win a general election would give them the mandate to do so and they would do just that
Only for the die hard membership to elect another hard lefter.
They would not get the chance, with Corbyn and McDonnell gone no other hard lefter would get on the ballot paper, instead Chuka would effectively be anointed by MPs before it even got to the membership for approval
UKIP eating into WWC vote could make all our discussions about Labour needing a centrist leader moot anyway. Might simply be no way back for a party that has abandoned its historic core supporters in favour of identity politics....
UKIP has a wonderful opportunity over the next few years with the WWC vote providing Corbyn and McDonnell continue to head Labour into an electoral cul-de-sac
My thinking is that WWC are not going to return to a hard left party or a Blairite party either...
McDonnell is frightening. Laura K thought she had knifed him with the leaked Labour briefing doc. He turned it around with apparent self-deprecating charm.
Just to say that, despite the spin from McDonnell and now Emily Maitlis, saying "Labour have increased from 2015" is also a useless comparator, just as comparing to 2012 is useless.
McDonnell is frightening. Laura K thought she had knifed him with the leaked Labour briefing doc. He turned it around with apparent self-deprecating charm.
Very good performance from him tonight. As you say, absolutely frightening.
Just to say that, despite the spin from McDonnell and now Emily Maitlis, saying "Labour have increased from 2015" is also a useless comparator, just as comparing to 2012 is useless.
I don't think the BBC has compared to 2011 once on their show though
The speed at which these very small constituencies are being counted in Scotland is really derisory. The counters in Sunderland are probably in their beds by now.
UKIP eating into WWC vote could make all our discussions about Labour needing a centrist leader moot anyway. Might simply be no way back for a party that has abandoned its historic core supporters in favour of identity politics....
UKIP has a wonderful opportunity over the next few years with the WWC vote providing Corbyn and McDonnell continue to head Labour into an electoral cul-de-sac
My thinking is that WWC are not going to return to a hard left party or a Blairite party either...
Labour: time to put a fork in
Most of the wwc who would defect to UKIP from Labour have already gone, most last year, the biggest gains UKIP will make from now until 2020 are likely to be from Tories, especially those who voted Leave if it is a narrow Remain
Just to say that, despite the spin from McDonnell and now Emily Maitlis, saying "Labour have increased from 2015" is also a useless comparator, just as comparing to 2012 is useless.
Eastwood going to be very interesting. And noises about Ruth D performing well in Ed Central.
Labour third in Eastwood I assume. Between Tories and SNP, probably.
Murphy vote moving back to the Tories it would seem.
Speaking of Mr Murphy, according to Wiki: "After the 2015 election, Murphy became an advisor to the Finnish non-profit Crisis Management Initiative (CMI), advising on "conflict resolution in central Asia"
Will he come back at some point into Labour politics in Scotland?
UKIP eating into WWC vote could make all our discussions about Labour needing a centrist leader moot anyway. Might simply be no way back for a party that has abandoned its historic core supporters in favour of identity politics....
UKIP has a wonderful opportunity over the next few years with the WWC vote providing Corbyn and McDonnell continue to head Labour into an electoral cul-de-sac
My thinking is that WWC are not going to return to a hard left party or a Blairite party either...
Labour: time to put a fork in
Most of the wwc who would defect to UKIP from Labour have already gone, most last year, the biggest gains UKIP will make from now until 2020 are likely to be from Tories, especially those who voted Leave if it is a narrow Remain
Disagree totally.
For Labour, 2020 in England could be like 2015 in Scotland. Just imagine that....
Just to say that, despite the spin from McDonnell and now Emily Maitlis, saying "Labour have increased from 2015" is also a useless comparator, just as comparing to 2012 is useless.
I don't think the BBC has compared to 2011 once on their show though
They seem to think 2012 is the equivalent point to compare against......
Just to say that, despite the spin from McDonnell and now Emily Maitlis, saying "Labour have increased from 2015" is also a useless comparator, just as comparing to 2012 is useless.
I don't think the BBC has compared to 2011 once on their show though
They seem to think 2012 is the equivalent point to compare against......
Just to say that, despite the spin from McDonnell and now Emily Maitlis, saying "Labour have increased from 2015" is also a useless comparator, just as comparing to 2012 is useless.
I don't think the BBC has compared to 2011 once on their show though
They seem to think 2012 is the equivalent point to compare against......
They're also comparing to 2015, which is also useless.
Most of the wwc who would defect to UKIP from Labour have already gone, most last year, the biggest gains UKIP will make from now until 2020 are likely to be from Tories, especially those who voted Leave if it is a narrow Remain
Not sure if I agree, but an interesting line of thought which hadn't occured to me before,
noises about Ruth D performing well in Ed Central.
Not well enough it seems
I remember for the short time I lived in Polworth getting a leaflet through from Sarah Boyack - I see she is standing for Labour again this time - 3rd would be humiliating for her after being the MSP for 12 years.
UKIP eating into WWC vote could make all our discussions about Labour needing a centrist leader moot anyway. Might simply be no way back for a party that has abandoned its historic core supporters in favour of identity politics....
UKIP has a wonderful opportunity over the next few years with the WWC vote providing Corbyn and McDonnell continue to head Labour into an electoral cul-de-sac
My thinking is that WWC are not going to return to a hard left party or a Blairite party either...
Labour: time to put a fork in
Most of the wwc who would defect to UKIP from Labour have already gone, most last year, the biggest gains UKIP will make from now until 2020 are likely to be from Tories, especially those who voted Leave if it is a narrow Remain
Disagree totally.
For Labour, 2020 in England could be like 2015 in Scotland. Just imagine that....
No way, the difference was in indyref Labour voters were split, Tories overwhelmingly for No, so the SNP's main target was Yes Labour voters, in EU ref Tory voters are split, a clear majority of Labour voters are for Remain, so UKIP's main target will be Leave Tory voters
UKIP eating into WWC vote could make all our discussions about Labour needing a centrist leader moot anyway. Might simply be no way back for a party that has abandoned its historic core supporters in favour of identity politics....
UKIP has a wonderful opportunity over the next few years with the WWC vote providing Corbyn and McDonnell continue to head Labour into an electoral cul-de-sac
My thinking is that WWC are not going to return to a hard left party or a Blairite party either...
Labour: time to put a fork in
Most of the wwc who would defect to UKIP from Labour have already gone, most last year, the biggest gains UKIP will make from now until 2020 are likely to be from Tories, especially those who voted Leave if it is a narrow Remain
Disagree totally.
For Labour, 2020 in England could be like 2015 in Scotland. Just imagine that....
No way, the difference was in indyref Labour voters were split, Tories overwhelmingly for No, so the SNP's main target was Yes Labour voters, in EU ref Tory voters are split, a clear majority of Labour voters are for Remain, so UKIP's main target will be Leave Tory voters
Not when Leave wins!
More seriously, it is not all about voters switching.
It is about previous voters staying at home.
That is how Blair won a landslide in 1997. Tory voters stayed at home.
Imagine if 25% of Labour voters stayed at home in the North in 2020.
Most of the wwc who would defect to UKIP from Labour have already gone, most last year, the biggest gains UKIP will make from now until 2020 are likely to be from Tories, especially those who voted Leave if it is a narrow Remain
Not sure if I agree, but an interesting line of thought which hadn't occured to me before,
I agree totally - Tory to UKIP en masse after the EU referendum and when the global sovereign debt crisis begins properly and sterling slides. Still think the USD (important) low to come the week after next.
Just to say that, despite the spin from McDonnell and now Emily Maitlis, saying "Labour have increased from 2015" is also a useless comparator, just as comparing to 2012 is useless.
I don't think the BBC has compared to 2011 once on their show though
They seem to think 2012 is the equivalent point to compare against......
They're also comparing to 2015, which is also useless.
Current state of English Council seats (1.29am) Labour 227 (-4) Cons 81 (+5) LibDems 27 (-3) Indy 10 (-4) UKIP 8 (+6) Green 1 (0)
O/T - How are your cats going on Plato? Our two remaining Persians getting very old now - the white will be 18 in 7 weeks time, and our black persian will be 17 around the EU referendum too, her sight is causing concern, and she bumps into a few things, and we can't scatter the munchies for her any longer. But apart from that she's fine bless her.
Most of the wwc who would defect to UKIP from Labour have already gone, most last year, the biggest gains UKIP will make from now until 2020 are likely to be from Tories, especially those who voted Leave if it is a narrow Remain
Not sure if I agree, but an interesting line of thought which hadn't occured to me before,
I agree totally - Tory to UKIP en masse after the EU referendum and when the global sovereign debt crisis begins properly and sterling slides. Still think the USD (important) low to come the week after next.
There will be Tory to UKIP movement but more in the manner of Lab to LD after the Iraq War than Lab to SNP after indyref rather than en masse. If Remain win a sterling slide is less likely though
Most of the wwc who would defect to UKIP from Labour have already gone, most last year, the biggest gains UKIP will make from now until 2020 are likely to be from Tories, especially those who voted Leave if it is a narrow Remain
Not sure if I agree, but an interesting line of thought which hadn't occured to me before,
I agree totally - Tory to UKIP en masse after the EU referendum and when the global sovereign debt crisis begins properly and sterling slides. Still think the USD (important) low to come the week after next.
There will be Tory to UKIP movement but more in the manner of Lab to LD after the Iraq War than Lab to SNP after indyref rather than en masse. If Remain win a sterling slide is less likely though
Handy hint: the future doesn't have to be like the past....
UKIP eating into WWC vote could make all our discussions about Labour needing a centrist leader moot anyway. Might simply be no way back for a party that has abandoned its historic core supporters in favour of identity politics....
UKIP has a wonderful opportunity over the next few years with the WWC vote providing Corbyn and McDonnell continue to head Labour into an electoral cul-de-sac
My thinking is that WWC are not going to return to a hard left party or a Blairite party either...
Labour: time to put a fork in
Most of the wwc who would defect to UKIP from Labour have already gone, most last year, the biggest gains UKIP will make from now until 2020 are likely to be from Tories, especially those who voted Leave if it is a narrow Remain
Disagree totally.
For Labour, 2020 in England could be like 2015 in Scotland. Just imagine that....
No way, the difference was in indyref Labour voters were split, Tories overwhelmingly for No, so the SNP's main target was Yes Labour voters, in EU ref Tory voters are split, a clear majority of Labour voters are for Remain, so UKIP's main target will be Leave Tory voters
Not when Leave wins!
More seriously, it is not all about voters switching.
It is about previous voters staying at home.
That is how Blair won a landslide in 1997. Tory voters stayed at home.
Imagine if 25% of Labour voters stayed at home in the North in 2020.
Under FPTP that would make little difference considering most of the northern seats have comfortable Labour majorities
Comments
Lab +2 Con 0 LD 0 UKIP +3 Grn 0
ie Lab 7% down on what Ed Miliband did and he went on to lose a GE.
Did the LDs just win a directly elected dictator election?
Ruth short in Central apparently
The ward is 34% Jewish.
http://www.neighbourhood.statistics.gov.uk/dissemination/LeadTableView.do?a=7&b=13689191&c=sedgley&d=14&e=61&g=6342011&i=1001x1003x1032x1004&m=0&r=1&s=1462493762490&enc=1&dsFamilyId=2579
Sixth ward in Thurrock. UKIP Gain with 47% of the vote.
This time last year I'd walked 16 miles in the neighbouring marginal GOTV, after a 28 mile final day of canvassing. Some long driveways in Dorset.....
Labour: time to put a fork in
sarah smith @BBCsarahsmith
Labour sources in Scotland keen to point out if they are beaten into 3rd place it is not Tories overtaking them, it is Labour undertaking
Eastwood going to be very interesting. And noises about Ruth D performing well in Ed Central.
How can it be good to claim that it is not your opponents doing really well, it is you doing really, really, really badly?!
UKIP make their first gain from Labour in Bolton, in Little Lever & Darcy Lever:
Con 1 held 1 lose 1 to Lab
Lib Dem 4 held 3 gain 1 from Lab
Speaking of Mr Murphy, according to Wiki: "After the 2015 election, Murphy became an advisor to the Finnish non-profit Crisis Management Initiative (CMI), advising on "conflict resolution in central Asia"
Will he come back at some point into Labour politics in Scotland?
For Labour, 2020 in England could be like 2015 in Scotland. Just imagine that....
Most of the wwc who would defect to UKIP from Labour have already gone, most last year, the biggest gains UKIP will make from now until 2020 are likely to be from Tories, especially those who voted Leave if it is a narrow Remain
Not sure if I agree, but an interesting line of thought which hadn't occured to me before,
More seriously, it is not all about voters switching.
It is about previous voters staying at home.
That is how Blair won a landslide in 1997. Tory voters stayed at home.
Imagine if 25% of Labour voters stayed at home in the North in 2020.
Not sure if I agree, but an interesting line of thought which hadn't occured to me before,
I agree totally - Tory to UKIP en masse after the EU referendum and when the global sovereign debt crisis begins properly and sterling slides. Still think the USD (important) low to come the week after next.
Phil Rodgers @PhilRodgers
I don't think I'm committing an election offence to reveal that one voter drew a portrait of Iron Man on their PCC ballot & voted for it.
There will be Tory to UKIP movement but more in the manner of Lab to LD after the Iraq War than Lab to SNP after indyref rather than en masse. If Remain win a sterling slide is less likely though