Current state of English Council seats (1.29am) Labour 227 (-4) Cons 81 (+5) LibDems 27 (-3) Indy 10 (-4) UKIP 8 (+6) Green 1 (0)
O/T - How are your cats going on Plato? Our two remaining Persians getting very old now - the white will be 18 in 7 weeks time, and our black persian will be 17 around the EU referendum too, her sight is causing concern, and she bumps into a few things, and we can't scatter the munchies for her any longer. But apart from that she's fine bless her.
All naughty - and moulting... 18yrs &17 yrs old! That's a fine innings so far.
During the election campaign I have been careful not to say this in public or on the internet before the close of poll, so here it is:
Zac Goldsmith's campaign was offensive, patronising, off-putting, negative and pathetic with its religious and racial profiling and insinuations about Sadiq Khan. I have been confused and in the dark about what his policies really mean on things like housing. If his campaign was so pathetic then I have concerns about his ability to administer and make executive decisions as Mayor of London.
I have felt great reluctance and some resentment about the fact that I was "supposed to" vote for Zac Goldsmith, just because i happen to be a member of the Conservative Party, and for weeks I have been struggling with my decision about how to vote.
On one hand, I wanted to express my dissatisfaction with Zac's campaign, but on the other hand I was not prepared to accept the premise of suggesting that Zac Goldsmith and Sadiq Khan were equally bad. Saying "they're both as bad as each other", and abstaining or spoiling a ballot paper, is a cop-out which for me is not a realistic option. I have also become increasingly conscious of the fact that I am de-facto a member of the Gavin Barwell Party, not the Zac Goldsmith Party.
My options were: (a) Vote for Zac Goldsmith anyway, despite my reservations; (b) Register a protest by voting for Sian Berry in the 1st round, and transfer to Zac Goldsmith in the 2nd round; (c) Vote for Sian Berry in the 1st round and perhaps Caroline Pidgeon in the 2nd round; (d) abstain, or leave the paper blank; (e) spoil the paper by writing a message; (f) Vote for Zac Goldsmith, but write a message saying "This is a vote for Zac Goldsmith even though he is a pathetic nauseating twit".
In the end, I decided to do (b). I couldn't stomach the idea of voting in a way that suggests that Zac Goldsmith and Sadiq Khan were equally bad, so that ruled out (c), (d) or (e). I didn't want to do (f) or (e) because - having been at the count last two times - I knew it would simply create extra unwanted work for the election staff at the count, who have thousands of doubtful votes to adjudicate already.
-------
P.S. My parents shared my dissatisfaction with Zac Goldsmith, so they voted Zac 1 and Sian Berry 2 (from the conversation we had, it seems they didn't fully understand the voting system, but they had a vague idea that it was a way of making a protest).
P.P.S. I didn't vote until 2:40pm in the afternoon. I would normally have voted on the dot of 7am, but I still hadn't made a final decision on how to vote until later, and i wanted to sleep on it before making a final decision.
Most of the wwc who would defect to UKIP from Labour have already gone, most last year, the biggest gains UKIP will make from now until 2020 are likely to be from Tories, especially those who voted Leave if it is a narrow Remain
Not sure if I agree, but an interesting line of thought which hadn't occured to me before,
I agree totally - Tory to UKIP en masse after the EU referendum and when the global sovereign debt crisis begins properly and sterling slides. Still think the USD (important) low to come the week after next.
There will be Tory to UKIP movement but more in the manner of Lab to LD after the Iraq War than Lab to SNP after indyref rather than en masse. If Remain win a sterling slide is less likely though
A sterling slide will happen irrespective of what happens on 23rd June over the next 20 months.
UKIP eating into WWC vote could make all our discussions about Labour needing a centrist leader moot anyway. Might simply be no way back for a party that has abandoned its historic core supporters in favour of identity politics....
UKIP has a wonderful opportunity over the next few years with the WWC vote providing Corbyn and McDonnell continue to head Labour into an electoral cul-de-sac
My thinking is that WWC are not going to return to a hard left party or a Blairite party either...
Labour: time to put a fork in
Most of the wwc who would defect to UKIP from Labour have already gone, most last year, the biggest gains UKIP will make from now until 2020 are likely to be from Tories, especially those who voted Leave if it is a narrow Remain
Disagree totally.
For Labour, 2020 in England could be like 2015 in Scotland. Just imagine that....
No way, the difference was in indyref Labour voters were split, Tories overwhelmingly for No, so the SNP's main target was Yes Labour voters, in EU ref Tory voters are split, a clear majority of Labour voters are for Remain, so UKIP's main target will be Leave Tory voters
Not when Leave wins!
More seriously, it is not all about voters switching.
It is about previous voters staying at home.
That is how Blair won a landslide in 1997. Tory voters stayed at home.
Imagine if 25% of Labour voters stayed at home in the North in 2020.
Under FPTP that would make little difference considering most of the northern seats have comfortable Labour majorities
Sky council seats declaration miles behind the Beeb. Hunchman praising the BBC! What's happening!
The discussion on the BBC is rubbish in terms of results, Sky better on that score but in terms of getting out results on the rolling tracker at the bottom of the screen the Beeb winning hands down!
Current state of English Council seats (1.29am) Labour 227 (-4) Cons 81 (+5) LibDems 27 (-3) Indy 10 (-4) UKIP 8 (+6) Green 1 (0)
O/T - How are your cats going on Plato? Our two remaining Persians getting very old now - the white will be 18 in 7 weeks time, and our black persian will be 17 around the EU referendum too, her sight is causing concern, and she bumps into a few things, and we can't scatter the munchies for her any longer. But apart from that she's fine bless her.
All naughty - and moulting... 18yrs &17 yrs old! That's a fine innings so far.
Less in the way of food bills during moulting......that's about the only thing you can say for it though!
Most of the wwc who would defect to UKIP from Labour have already gone, most last year, the biggest gains UKIP will make from now until 2020 are likely to be from Tories, especially those who voted Leave if it is a narrow Remain
Not sure if I agree, but an interesting line of thought which hadn't occured to me before,
I agree totally - Tory to UKIP en masse after the EU referendum and when the global sovereign debt crisis begins properly and sterling slides. Still think the USD (important) low to come the week after next.
There will be Tory to UKIP movement but more in the manner of Lab to LD after the Iraq War than Lab to SNP after indyref rather than en masse. If Remain win a sterling slide is less likely though
Handy hint: the future doesn't have to be like the past....
Yet it tends to repeat itself, Labour Remain voters are hardly going to switch to UKIP are they!
Most of the wwc who would defect to UKIP from Labour have already gone, most last year, the biggest gains UKIP will make from now until 2020 are likely to be from Tories, especially those who voted Leave if it is a narrow Remain
Not sure if I agree, but an interesting line of thought which hadn't occured to me before,
I agree totally - Tory to UKIP en masse after the EU referendum and when the global sovereign debt crisis begins properly and sterling slides. Still think the USD (important) low to come the week after next.
There will be Tory to UKIP movement but more in the manner of Lab to LD after the Iraq War than Lab to SNP after indyref rather than en masse. If Remain win a sterling slide is less likely though
Handy hint: the future doesn't have to be like the past....
Yet it tends to repeat itself, Labour Remain voters are hardly going to switch to UKIP are they!
Most of the wwc who would defect to UKIP from Labour have already gone, most last year, the biggest gains UKIP will make from now until 2020 are likely to be from Tories, especially those who voted Leave if it is a narrow Remain
Not sure if I agree, but an interesting line of thought which hadn't occured to me before,
I agree totally - Tory to UKIP en masse after the EU referendum and when the global sovereign debt crisis begins properly and sterling slides. Still think the USD (important) low to come the week after next.
There will be Tory to UKIP movement but more in the manner of Lab to LD after the Iraq War than Lab to SNP after indyref rather than en masse. If Remain win a sterling slide is less likely though
Handy hint: the future doesn't have to be like the past....
Yet it tends to repeat itself, Labour Remain voters are hardly going to switch to UKIP are they!
All those 23 WWC Remainiacs.....
WWC Leave voters will most likely have voted UKIP in 2015 anyway, not Labour, so they are not now technically Labour voters
Most of the wwc who would defect to UKIP from Labour have already gone, most last year, the biggest gains UKIP will make from now until 2020 are likely to be from Tories, especially those who voted Leave if it is a narrow Remain
Not sure if I agree, but an interesting line of thought which hadn't occured to me before,
I agree totally - Tory to UKIP en masse after the EU referendum and when the global sovereign debt crisis begins properly and sterling slides. Still think the USD (important) low to come the week after next.
There will be Tory to UKIP movement but more in the manner of Lab to LD after the Iraq War than Lab to SNP after indyref rather than en masse. If Remain win a sterling slide is less likely though
Handy hint: the future doesn't have to be like the past....
Yet it tends to repeat itself, Labour Remain voters are hardly going to switch to UKIP are they!
All those 23 WWC Remainiacs.....
WWC Leave voters will most likely have voted UKIP in 2015 anyway, not Labour, so they are not now technically Labour voters
Nope - there are depths as yet unplumbed by Labour.
Most of the wwc who would defect to UKIP from Labour have already gone, most last year, the biggest gains UKIP will make from now until 2020 are likely to be from Tories, especially those who voted Leave if it is a narrow Remain
Not sure if I agree, but an interesting line of thought which hadn't occured to me before,
I agree totally - Tory to UKIP en masse after the EU referendum and when the global sovereign debt crisis begins properly and sterling slides. Still think the USD (important) low to come the week after next.
There will be Tory to UKIP movement but more in the manner of Lab to LD after the Iraq War than Lab to SNP after indyref rather than en masse. If Remain win a sterling slide is less likely though
Handy hint: the future doesn't have to be like the past....
Yet it tends to repeat itself, Labour Remain voters are hardly going to switch to UKIP are they!
All those 23 WWC Remainiacs.....
WWC Leave voters will most likely have voted UKIP in 2015 anyway, not Labour, so they are not now technically Labour voters
Nope - there are depths as yet unplumbed by Labour.
75% or so of Labour voters will vote Remain according to the polls, 55% of Tory voters will vote Leave, who has more to lose to UKIP if it is a close Remain?
Most of the wwc who would defect to UKIP from Labour have already gone, most last year, the biggest gains UKIP will make from now until 2020 are likely to be from Tories, especially those who voted Leave if it is a narrow Remain
Not sure if I agree, but an interesting line of thought which hadn't occured to me before,
I agree totally - Tory to UKIP en masse after the EU referendum and when the global sovereign debt crisis begins properly and sterling slides. Still think the USD (important) low to come the week after next.
There will be Tory to UKIP movement but more in the manner of Lab to LD after the Iraq War than Lab to SNP after indyref rather than en masse. If Remain win a sterling slide is less likely though
Handy hint: the future doesn't have to be like the past....
Yet it tends to repeat itself, Labour Remain voters are hardly going to switch to UKIP are they!
All those 23 WWC Remainiacs.....
WWC Leave voters will most likely have voted UKIP in 2015 anyway, not Labour, so they are not now technically Labour voters
Nope - there are depths as yet unplumbed by Labour.
75% or so of Labour voters will vote Remain according to the polls, 55% of Tory voters will vote Leave, who has more to lose to UKIP if it is a close Remain?
Let me blow your mind slightly.
I am a Tory leaver.
I would vote Labour before I vote UKIP.
Most of my family are Labour voters. They're mostly WWC and will either vote UKIP or not vote next time.
Labour will lose WWC vote not because of Europe. Tories will not lose much MC vote to UKIP regardless of the result in June.
Comments
Zac Goldsmith's campaign was offensive, patronising, off-putting, negative and pathetic with its religious and racial profiling and insinuations about Sadiq Khan. I have been confused and in the dark about what his policies really mean on things like housing. If his campaign was so pathetic then I have concerns about his ability to administer and make executive decisions as Mayor of London.
I have felt great reluctance and some resentment about the fact that I was "supposed to" vote for Zac Goldsmith, just because i happen to be a member of the Conservative Party, and for weeks I have been struggling with my decision about how to vote.
On one hand, I wanted to express my dissatisfaction with Zac's campaign, but on the other hand I was not prepared to accept the premise of suggesting that Zac Goldsmith and Sadiq Khan were equally bad. Saying "they're both as bad as each other", and abstaining or spoiling a ballot paper, is a cop-out which for me is not a realistic option. I have also become increasingly conscious of the fact that I am de-facto a member of the Gavin Barwell Party, not the Zac Goldsmith Party.
My options were:
(a) Vote for Zac Goldsmith anyway, despite my reservations;
(b) Register a protest by voting for Sian Berry in the 1st round, and transfer to Zac Goldsmith in the 2nd round;
(c) Vote for Sian Berry in the 1st round and perhaps Caroline Pidgeon in the 2nd round;
(d) abstain, or leave the paper blank;
(e) spoil the paper by writing a message;
(f) Vote for Zac Goldsmith, but write a message saying "This is a vote for Zac Goldsmith even though he is a pathetic nauseating twit".
In the end, I decided to do (b).
I couldn't stomach the idea of voting in a way that suggests that Zac Goldsmith and Sadiq Khan were equally bad, so that ruled out (c), (d) or (e).
I didn't want to do (f) or (e) because - having been at the count last two times - I knew it would simply create extra unwanted work for the election staff at the count, who have thousands of doubtful votes to adjudicate already.
-------
P.S. My parents shared my dissatisfaction with Zac Goldsmith, so they voted Zac 1 and Sian Berry 2 (from the conversation we had, it seems they didn't fully understand the voting system, but they had a vague idea that it was a way of making a protest).
P.P.S. I didn't vote until 2:40pm in the afternoon. I would normally have voted on the dot of 7am, but I still hadn't made a final decision on how to vote until later, and i wanted to sleep on it before making a final decision.
A sterling slide will happen irrespective of what happens on 23rd June over the next 20 months.
Result for Kearsley ward - UKIP party candidate Mark CUNNINGHAM elected #LE2016 #Bolton
Dudley Council @dudleymbc
#Wordsley UKIP Gain #DudleyElections #LE2016 dudley.gov.uk/community/elec…
Thurrock Council @thurrockcouncil
Jack Duffin (UKIP) is elected councillor for Stanford East & Corringham Town with a majority of 496
Hartlepool results: Labour holds the council. Ukip gained three seats, two of them from Labour.
"well on course ...."
I am a Tory leaver.
I would vote Labour before I vote UKIP.
Most of my family are Labour voters. They're mostly WWC and will either vote UKIP or not vote next time.
Labour will lose WWC vote not because of Europe.
Tories will not lose much MC vote to UKIP regardless of the result in June.
UKIP gain Laindon Park ward from Labour on Basildon
She pushes it just too far when compared to McMao.
SNP 13945
Lab 8508
LD 836
Tories 5596
SNP hold, swing 5% from Lab to SNP
Compared to expectations, it might be a tad disappointing night for them.
Lab -10%
Con +9%
CON: 45.4% (+27.2)
LAB: 43.8% (-16.5)
Extraordinary swing https://t.co/lSln4CoXxa
I feel sorry for Labour if she is the best they can rustle up to present their case.
Con -5.1%
Lab -13.9%
UKIP +22.2%
LD -2.3%
Green -1.4%
Ind +0.5%
Current state of English Council seats (2.09am)
Lab 380 (-16)
Con 196 (+11)
LDs 53 (-4)
Indy 22 (-6)
UKIP 19 (+15)
Grn 3 (+1)
OTH 3 (-1)
Lib Dems have taken control of Rugby Borough Council from the Tories #libdemfightback