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  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,736
    Tom said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mortimer said:

    John McDonnell scares me rigid. His ability to peddle hard left (and frankly farcical) leadership lines in such a believable and, dare I say it, empathic way is far, far better than Corbyn.

    Which is why I think it will be McDonnell, not Corbyn, who leads Labour in 2020
    Issue with McDonnell is he completely lacks judgement and is very easy to wind up - little red book incident not an aberration.
    I doubt he would get to No 10 even if he did get the leadership
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @TheRedRag: It looks like Labour have lost EVERY seat in both Glasgow and Edinburgh, what is AMAZING in nobody seems surprised.
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    Carmichael scandal doesn't seem to have damaged the Lib Dems up there. Still one outpost that the nationalist surge can't stretch to. Nigh on 5k Lib Dem majority.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,628
    John Mann on Sky saying it will be Cataclysmic if Lab come 3rd in Scotland!

    One interesting story, the Labour candidate in the Sheffield by-election is the widow of the man whose untimely death from cancer caused the by-election.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    philiph said:

    Floater said:

    philiph said:

    I feel a LibDem surge welling up.

    Voted for them twice today. Haven't done that for 20 years or so.

    I was going to give all 3 of my votes to Lib Dems - I got in the booth and gave 2 to the blues - sorry Lib Dems!
    Are you a sentimental romantic without the courage of you convictions?

    Or maybe you are more sensible than me!
    On the walk to vote from train station I decided that increasing the blue vote to hurt Labour was more important than voting for the better councillor team. I did however still vote for the Lib Dem councillor that I have dealt with and know personally (through those dealings)
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Reasonably good result for Labour in Longbridge / Birmingham which was Jess Phillips' council seat until today.

    http://www.birminghammail.co.uk/news/midlands-news/birmingham-council-election-results-2016-11285224
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Early betfair indications look good for Ruth.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    hunchman said:

    Orkney comfortable LD hold - Labour vote 304 instead of 3004!

    We demand a judicial review into Carmichael !
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    nunu said:

    What sort of swing Lab/Con is needed to give Zac the job? We look to be in the ballpark using my guessing stick.

    London is not Nuneaton!
    London is not immune either (as I recall the London regional swing was much less than the national one last year) and UNS is not a bad predictor even in the world of ARSE and ELBOW.
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,844
    Scott_P said:

    @wallaceme: John Mann on Sky: "We were all told Jeremy was going to be bringing these 5 million voters who haven't voted before...that hasn't happened."

    Sadly, there are few on the Left who are listening to Mann just now.

    But he is right.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,736
    edited May 2016
    LDs have held Orkney in first Scottish Parliament result

    LD 7,096, SNP 2,562, Tories 435, Labour 304

    Swing 16% SNP to LD
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited May 2016
    LIB DEM SURGE

    Orkney
    Lib Dems 67.4% +31.6
    SNP 24.3% -0.8
    Conservatives 4.1% -4.3
    Labour 2.9% -2.7
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554

    Scott_P said:

    @BBCsarahsmith: Labour seem pretty sure they have lost every Glasgow constituency seat and fear a very bad night across Scotland.

    If Labour have lost every seat in Glasgow - GLASGOW FFS!!!- then let me stop you right there. Labour have ALREADY had a very bad night, whatever else happens.

    That's like the Republicans losing Utah. It's just explody-head stuff.
    Perhaps people finally got sick of voting for the donkey with the red rossette.
  • WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838

    What sort of swing Lab/Con is needed to give Zac the job? We look to be in the ballpark using my guessing stick.

    Ye-es, but in London? So far I haven't seen any evidence that Labour will underperform the polls in London.
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Labour have gained Wesley ward in Birmingham from Con
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    Scott_P said:

    @wallaceme: John Mann on Sky: "We were all told Jeremy was going to be bringing these 5 million voters who haven't voted before...that hasn't happened."

    You should know that they are a sleeper cell yet to be activated!
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Nice swing to Lib Dems in Orkney

  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,628
    LDs have the first MSP, in the Orkneys.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,172
    Danny565 said:

    LIB DEM SURGE

    Orkney
    Lib Dems +31.6

    Why the massive swing?
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Claire Harrison @ClaireH_NN

    Conservative gain Galley Common in #Nuneaton from Labour
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,249
    edited May 2016
    Excellent result for the Lib Dems. Ideas that the court case would damage them seem somewhat misplaced. Carmichael must be having a good laugh.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554
    Will Mann will be called in for another meeting in regards his behaviour?
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    James Chalmers @ProfChalmers

    The LibDems have gone from 36% to 67% in Orkney. That's incredible.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    BBC reporter "you voted for first time today, how was it for you"

    LOL - I like voting but.....................................
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,172
    bloody children voting.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    RobD said:

    Danny565 said:

    LIB DEM SURGE

    Orkney
    Lib Dems +31.6

    Why the massive swing?
    SNP mong backlash.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158
    HYUFD said:

    Mortimer said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mortimer said:

    John McDonnell scares me rigid. His ability to peddle hard left (and frankly farcical) leadership lines in such a believable and, dare I say it, empathic way is far, far better than Corbyn.

    Which is why I think it will be McDonnell, not Corbyn, who leads Labour in 2020
    Blairites won't stand for that.

    Would trigger SDP Mk II.

    Only reason that Corbyn is still in place is because of his incompetence.
    Where is the SDP Mk II going to win under FPTP, Blairites will not even be able to do a deal with Farron's LDs. They will have to grit their teeth and wait for Chuka in 2020
    SDP Mk II would have more hope against a divided Tory party.

    The worry from a Blairite POV is that McDonnell does enough to survive.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,172
    TGOHF said:

    RobD said:

    Danny565 said:

    LIB DEM SURGE

    Orkney
    Lib Dems +31.6

    Why the massive swing?
    SNP mong backlash.
    Titters
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    6 seats declared so far in Weymouth/Portland 1 LD hold 3 Lab holds 1 Lab gain from Con 1 Con hold
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @alexmassie: The Nats might have won Orkney if their zoomers hadn't launched a vendetta against Carmichael.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554
    edited May 2016
    Oh god bbc propaganda on 16/17 year old voting AGAIN...And we have them all night!
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    @JamieRoss7 The Lib Dems are buoyant. They're talking of winning Orkney, Shetland, North East Fife, and Edinburgh Western. We'll see...

    Well the first one has been chalked off - can believe Shetland after this. The other two - hmmmmmm?
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704

    Scott_P said:

    @BBCsarahsmith: Labour seem pretty sure they have lost every Glasgow constituency seat and fear a very bad night across Scotland.

    If Labour have lost every seat in Glasgow - GLASGOW FFS!!!- then let me stop you right there. Labour have ALREADY had a very bad night, whatever else happens.

    That's like the Republicans losing Utah. It's just explody-head stuff.
    Perhaps people finally got sick of voting for the donkey with the red rossette.
    If that donkey would shed the stupid red rosette it may well win in many constituencies as the best candidate.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @euanmccolm: the orkney four cost the snp any chance of that seat. the fucking dolts.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,736
    Mortimer said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mortimer said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mortimer said:

    John McDonnell scares me rigid. His ability to peddle hard left (and frankly farcical) leadership lines in such a believable and, dare I say it, empathic way is far, far better than Corbyn.

    Which is why I think it will be McDonnell, not Corbyn, who leads Labour in 2020
    Blairites won't stand for that.

    Would trigger SDP Mk II.

    Only reason that Corbyn is still in place is because of his incompetence.
    Where is the SDP Mk II going to win under FPTP, Blairites will not even be able to do a deal with Farron's LDs. They will have to grit their teeth and wait for Chuka in 2020
    SDP Mk II would have more hope against a divided Tory party.

    The worry from a Blairite POV is that McDonnell does enough to survive.
    Under PR maybe, not under FPTP. If McDonnell fails to lead the largest party or get enough seats to form a government the Blairite MPs will oust him but he will probably step down anyway
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @fatshez: SNP MEP immediate reaction to general question about Carmichael case was deny SNP involvement. Er, that wasn't put to him.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    RobD said:

    TGOHF said:

    RobD said:

    Danny565 said:

    LIB DEM SURGE

    Orkney
    Lib Dems +31.6

    Why the massive swing?
    SNP mong backlash.
    Titters
    Orkney 4 cost the Nats 1000 votes each :)
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,172
    Can we see some 16% SNP to CON swings soon please?
  • Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,307
    edited May 2016
    Every time they cross over to 'a panel of young people' , the sound on my TV mysteriously goes on to mute.

    I have no idea why that is.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    RUTHERGLEN RESULT DECLARATION
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,433
    After last year, a 16% swing in Scotland isn't that impressive.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Labour hold St Albans: Batchwood.
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    Rutherglen SNP majority of nearly 4k over Labour
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Thurrock Council @thurrockcouncil

    Local election result for Tilbury St Chads: UKIP 606; LAB 570; CON 89; -- UKIP GAIN
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,736
    edited May 2016
    Rutherglen

    SNP 15,222, Lab 11,479, Tories 3,718, LD 2,533.

    SNP gain from Labour, swing of 9%
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    James Kelly toast
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    David Wyllie @journodave

    SNP gain Glasgow's Rutherglen from Labour with 15,222 votes to 11,479 #sp16
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554
    I can't work out which is worse the pressure gauge on sky or the floor map on BBC which is really hard to make out & vine stands all over it.
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    South Tyneside complete.

    http://www.southtyneside.gov.uk/applications/2/elections/LocalGovernment.aspx?id=30

    All Labour hold and 1 gain from Con
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,172
    Nats so loud they are breaking the microphone.
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    Rutherglen 9% Lab to SNP swing!
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    9% swing from Lab to SNP.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,249
    Labour vote down 11% in Rutherglen. Ouch. Not close.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,736
    Labour hold South Tyneside
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,172
    Floater said:

    James Kelly toast

    Formerly of this parish.... :p
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591

    After last year, a 16% swing in Scotland isn't that impressive.

    A bit hard for the SNP to break the swingometer after their advance in 2011!
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,433
    John Curtice speaks, swing in Rutherglen indicates Lab with no consituencies at Holyrood
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    AndyJS said:

    Labour hold St Albans: Batchwood.

    outrageous, expel them from Hertfordshire and they can become greater luton.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @bbclaurak: SNP wins Rutherglen - 9pc swing, early suggestion that Labour won't get any constituency seats
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Source BBC news If Rutherglen is replicated across Scotland Labour would win NO constituency seats
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554
    Huw Edwards looked like he was going to start crying.
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    James Kelly should be saved by the list. He's third on Glasgow list.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @rosschawkins: Labour Portsmouth leader @John_Ferrett tells us UKIP polling 40% of vote there, Labour lost significant numbers to UKIP - a disaster he says
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,249

    John Curtice speaks, swing in Rutherglen indicates Lab with no consituencies at Holyrood

    I have been predicting that for a couple of months.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    RobD said:

    Floater said:

    James Kelly toast

    Formerly of this parish.... :p
    Hence the name check
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,433
    hunchman said:

    After last year, a 16% swing in Scotland isn't that impressive.

    A bit hard for the SNP to break the swingometer after their advance in 2011!
    It was a 16% swing to the Lib Dems
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    UKIP 3 gains so far - will be much harder next year when the benchmark is 2013 when the UKIP advance really started.

    How long before Labour swing into negative change in seats territory? Up 3 at the moment.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,823
    Incidentally if Zac wins I will be very sad. Not just because of my £100 loss (I may have mentioned that bet slightly) but because the polls will have been shown to be total bullshit. Not just "wrong but barely within MOE" but "totally and utterly wrong in a great heap of wrongness" way

  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591

    hunchman said:

    After last year, a 16% swing in Scotland isn't that impressive.

    A bit hard for the SNP to break the swingometer after their advance in 2011!
    It was a 16% swing to the Lib Dems
    Thought you were talking about Rutherglen TSE!
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @nicholaswatt: Been leaked copy of @UKLabour internal 'close of poll script' with Q&A for loyal frontbenchers to help answer media Qs. On @BBCNews liveblog
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158
    HYUFD said:

    Mortimer said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mortimer said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mortimer said:

    John McDonnell scares me rigid. His ability to peddle hard left (and frankly farcical) leadership lines in such a believable and, dare I say it, empathic way is far, far better than Corbyn.

    Which is why I think it will be McDonnell, not Corbyn, who leads Labour in 2020
    Blairites won't stand for that.

    Would trigger SDP Mk II.

    Only reason that Corbyn is still in place is because of his incompetence.
    Where is the SDP Mk II going to win under FPTP, Blairites will not even be able to do a deal with Farron's LDs. They will have to grit their teeth and wait for Chuka in 2020
    SDP Mk II would have more hope against a divided Tory party.

    The worry from a Blairite POV is that McDonnell does enough to survive.
    Under PR maybe, not under FPTP. If McDonnell fails to lead the largest party or get enough seats to form a government the Blairite MPs will oust him but he will probably step down anyway
    Why would he step down? You're fundamentally misunderstanding the hard left takeover of the Labour party.

  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Holy shit - 29% vote share prediction for Labour
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    viewcode said:

    Incidentally if Zac wins I will be very sad. Not just because of my £100 loss (I may have mentioned that bet slightly) but because the polls will have been shown to be total bullshit. Not just "wrong but barely within MOE" but "totally and utterly wrong in a great heap of wrongness" way

    I think your cash is safe..
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Chris Ship @chrisshipitv

    In Portsmouth Labour councillor @John_Ferrett says the Labour leadership is 'absolutely incompetent' @BBCRadio4
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591

    Source BBC news If Rutherglen is replicated across Scotland Labour would win NO constituency seats

    Labour refusal to talk about independence seems to be hurting them. Separate nationalist Labour and unionist Labour parties to emerge someone suggesting!
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Thurrock Council @thurrockcouncil

    Local election result for Aveley & Uplands: UKIP 1011; LAB 449; CON 392; -- UKIP GAIN
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Scott_P said:

    @rosschawkins: Labour Portsmouth leader @John_Ferrett tells us UKIP polling 40% of vote there, Labour lost significant numbers to UKIP - a disaster he says

    Well an apparantly terrorist sympathising, jew hating leadership will do that to a party.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,249
    Turnout in Dundee (from the count) at 51% and 51.8% in the 2 constituencies. 2 very easy SNP holds guaranteed but poor turnout. Again wonder if the Labour vote has turned out.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158
    Danny won't be pleased - Curtice finally compares to 2011 (after the obvious comparisons to 2012) and suggests Labour are doing worse than then, too.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,736
    Floater said:

    Holy shit - 29% vote share prediction for Labour

    That was for 2015, BBC just projected Lab up 3% on last year but 7% down on 2012
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    BBC currently projecting a national Tory lead of 1%.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554
    Curtice still getting in terrible night for Tories...
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    Mcdonnell on Beeb still, that leaves to come then Abbott, Clive Lewis or erm Ken (oh no maybe not)
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    South Tyneside changes compared to 2012:

    Lab -0.7%
    Con +2.3%
    UKIP +12.3%
    Greens +7.9%
    Ind -13.5%
    Lib -1.7%
    Others -6.6%
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,249
    Early days but are Labour doing better in the locals than was predicted?
  • sarissasarissa Posts: 2,022
    RobD said:

    Danny565 said:

    LIB DEM SURGE

    Orkney
    Lib Dems +31.6

    Why the massive swing?
    Independent who took 25% of the vote in 2011 standing on the list vote this time - increase of circa 8% still impressive though
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Mortimer said:

    Danny won't be pleased - Curtice finally compares to 2011 (after the obvious comparisons to 2012) and suggests Labour are doing worse than then, too.

    I never predicted that they would be doing better than 2011 :p Simply that that was the relevant comparison.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,736
    Mortimer said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mortimer said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mortimer said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mortimer said:

    John McDonnell scares me rigid. His ability to peddle hard left (and frankly farcical) leadership lines in such a believable and, dare I say it, empathic way is far, far better than Corbyn.

    Which is why I think it will be McDonnell, not Corbyn, who leads Labour in 2020
    Blairites won't stand for that.

    Would trigger SDP Mk II.

    Only reason that Corbyn is still in place is because of his incompetence.
    Where is the SDP Mk II going to win under FPTP, Blairites will not even be able to do a deal with Farron's LDs. They will have to grit their teeth and wait for Chuka in 2020
    SDP Mk II would have more hope against a divided Tory party.

    The worry from a Blairite POV is that McDonnell does enough to survive.
    Under PR maybe, not under FPTP. If McDonnell fails to lead the largest party or get enough seats to form a government the Blairite MPs will oust him but he will probably step down anyway
    Why would he step down? You're fundamentally misunderstanding the hard left takeover of the Labour party.

    He failed to win the election that is why and as I said if he did not the MPs would have the excuse to oust him they did not pre-election
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    DavidL said:

    Early days but are Labour doing better in the locals than was predicted?

    About on a par.

    Rallings & Thrasher predicted a 1% Tory lead, the BBC's analysis of ward results so far project a 1% Tory lead.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158
    HYUFD said:

    Mortimer said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mortimer said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mortimer said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mortimer said:

    John McDonnell scares me rigid. His ability to peddle hard left (and frankly farcical) leadership lines in such a believable and, dare I say it, empathic way is far, far better than Corbyn.

    Which is why I think it will be McDonnell, not Corbyn, who leads Labour in 2020
    Blairites won't stand for that.

    Would trigger SDP Mk II.

    Only reason that Corbyn is still in place is because of his incompetence.
    Where is the SDP Mk II going to win under FPTP, Blairites will not even be able to do a deal with Farron's LDs. They will have to grit their teeth and wait for Chuka in 2020
    SDP Mk II would have more hope against a divided Tory party.

    The worry from a Blairite POV is that McDonnell does enough to survive.
    Under PR maybe, not under FPTP. If McDonnell fails to lead the largest party or get enough seats to form a government the Blairite MPs will oust him but he will probably step down anyway
    Why would he step down? You're fundamentally misunderstanding the hard left takeover of the Labour party.

    He failed to win the election that is why and as I said if he did not the MPs would have the excuse to oust him they did not pre-election
    As I said, misunderstanding the hard left takeover of Labour leadership.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,736
    Labour hold Nuneaton
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,172
    sarissa said:

    RobD said:

    Danny565 said:

    LIB DEM SURGE

    Orkney
    Lib Dems +31.6

    Why the massive swing?
    Independent who took 25% of the vote in 2011 standing on the list vote this time - increase of circa 8% still impressive though
    Thanks!
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,823
    MikeL said:

    What will tonight's results mean re accuracy of current opinion polls?

    OK, you could say locals are different to a GE.

    But if Lab has underperformed polls then it may imply pollsters changes to methodologies haven't done the trick.

    That's what I was thinking. How many wrong polls do we have to get before we go "uh, just wait a moment..."
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    SKY - Labour vote reduced due to people moving to UKIP (In Wales)
  • FattyBolgerFattyBolger Posts: 299
    DavidL said:

    Early days but are Labour doing better in the locals than was predicted?

    That's the vibe I'm feeling as well.

    Has Tom Watson lost weight?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Conservatives hold Edgbaston by 78 votes.
  • Curtice still getting in terrible night for Tories...

    Having just watched him he didn't say that at all. You really do post some obsessive rubbish about the BBC.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    edited May 2016
    Clare Dobson MEN
    And we have the first Tory gain of thr night in Westhoughton North and Chew Moor
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    Dan Hodges ‏@DPJHodges · 7m7 minutes ago

    Labour sources saying pattern emerging of fall in turnout in key Labour areas, but increase in key Tory areas.


    zac o'clock
This discussion has been closed.