Undefined discussion subject.

RobD said:

welshowl said:

RobD said:

welshowl said:

RobD said:

welshowl said:

Plato_Says said:

Did I just hear Labour expect to cede control of W Ass?

W Ass??????

W. Ass.

Oh that W Ass.... ( still none the wiser)

Welsh Assembly

Cynulliad Cendlaethol would've made sense

That could be the national assembly of any country though

It's where my keyboard walking cats would live

RobD said:

welshowl said:

RobD said:

welshowl said:

RobD said:

welshowl said:

Plato_Says said:

Did I just hear Labour expect to cede control of W Ass?

W Ass??????

W. Ass.

Oh that W Ass.... ( still none the wiser)

Welsh Assembly

Cynulliad Cendlaethol would've made sense

That could be the national assembly of any country though

True (well just)

Scott_P said:

@STJamesl: Another prediction - labour will lose overall control in Wales and Welsh labour will pour a big bucket of merde over Jeremy Corbyn

Very early yet, but I'm sticking to my prediction of this afternoon that this is going to be an appalling night for Labour. 300 loses.

shouldn't you compare with 2012 (which will probably show a worst swing away from Lab)?

chestnut said:

St Annes Sunderland

Lab 71.4 (1371 votes)
Con 28.6 (548 votes)

Turnout 24.3%

In 2011

Lab 71.4 ( 1908 votes)
Con 16.3% ( 436 votes)
Grn 8.9% (238 votes)
LD 3.4% (90 votes)

Swing: Lab to Con 6.15%

Worth following Ian Warren for analysis of results:

http://election-data.co.uk/election-data-live

welshowl said:

RobD said:

welshowl said:

RobD said:

welshowl said:

RobD said:

welshowl said:

Plato_Says said:

Did I just hear Labour expect to cede control of W Ass?

W Ass??????

W. Ass.

Oh that W Ass.... ( still none the wiser)

Welsh Assembly

Cynulliad Cendlaethol would've made sense

That could be the national assembly of any country though

True (well just)

Technically correct.. the best kind of correct

Listening to Sky News, sounds like Labour's in for a drubbing tonight (surely Jezza will be toast after the referendum)

I didn't bother voting in the end...

SouthamObserver said:

Roger said:

tyson said:

I'm sorry Mike Smithson, as much as I love Lancashire, I am going to have to re-post my love of Italy from earlier in response to an attack on Italian cuisine (unthinkable)

I'm sorry...Italian cuisine is sublime. The simplicity. Provided you stay out of a tourist trap and keep to local trattorias, it is literally impossible to eat or drink badly in Italy.

For people who love food, wine, the weather, the landscape, the sea, mountains, the history...and the fact that Italians love the English. The hotels are great. The coffee. You can get to gigs in the summer for £20, and I mean top bands. The cakes, the grappa, the apperetivo....the fact that in summer everything comes to life. The sun, The walks. The quality of the hotels. The light...those wonderful Italian dusks and dawns. The sense of fun and happiness. And it's cheap.

Or you could go somewhere else. Why?

It's all true. Not as refined as French at its best but that's its charm. You can go anywhere and its lively fun and simple and it's uniformly good. Sometimes it feels like you've crept into a fellini film and that's when it's at its best. You're very lucky. So much better than Spain

I doubt you have seen much of Spain to say that, Roger. Like France. I'd say the further west you go in France the better it gets, though the Jura is a special place. If you don't eat and drink well in Gascony or Brittany, say, you are doing something very wrong.

Excellent seafood in Brittany, I quite agree.

France is like Britain in the Seventies, looking rather dogeared but with strong roots that are ripe for revival.

GIN1138 said:

Listening to Sky News, sounds like Labour's in the drubbing tonight (surely Jessa will be toast after the referendum)

I didn't bother voting in the end...

Sky whole tone does seem to point to them thinking this. Tom newton dunn said that the sun & mail are running with this angle.

TheScreamingEagles said:

GIN1138 said:

Listening to Sky News, sounds like Labour's in for a drubbing tonight (surely Jezza will be toast after the referendum)

I didn't bother voting in the end...

Typical Labour voter, can't be arsed to go out and vote.

I didn't vote for the other Party I've been voting for at every election since 2006 (Con) either.

foxinsoxuk said:

SouthamObserver said:

Roger said:

tyson said:

I'm sorry Mike Smithson, as much as I love Lancashire, I am going to have to re-post my love of Italy from earlier in response to an attack on Italian cuisine (unthinkable)

I'm sorry...Italian cuisine is sublime. The simplicity. Provided you stay out of a tourist trap and keep to local trattorias, it is literally impossible to eat or drink badly in Italy.

For people who love food, wine, the weather, the landscape, the sea, mountains, the history...and the fact that Italians love the English. The hotels are great. The coffee. You can get to gigs in the summer for £20, and I mean top bands. The cakes, the grappa, the apperetivo....the fact that in summer everything comes to life. The sun, The walks. The quality of the hotels. The light...those wonderful Italian dusks and dawns. The sense of fun and happiness. And it's cheap.

Or you could go somewhere else. Why?

It's all true. Not as refined as French at its best but that's its charm. You can go anywhere and its lively fun and simple and it's uniformly good. Sometimes it feels like you've crept into a fellini film and that's when it's at its best. You're very lucky. So much better than Spain

I doubt you have seen much of Spain to say that, Roger. Like France. I'd say the further west you go in France the better it gets, though the Jura is a special place. If you don't eat and drink well in Gascony or Brittany, say, you are doing something very wrong.

Excellent seafood in Brittany, I quite agree.

France is like Britain in the Seventies, looking rather dogeared but with strong roots that are ripe for revival.

Yes, it's a sad place right now. Kind of defeated. But France is too great a country not to bounce back.

SeanT said:

But they don't eat like that. Most Italians will have a starter then the pasta, or a starter then the meat/fish. Or just the pasta. You're allowed to pick and choose and that is exactly what they do,

That's true (in fact they often ignore the menu altogether, and negotiate with the waiter to produce something different).

But my point still stands. The French conceive the meal as a whole. The Italians don't.

Remember Laura said "Grim night for Lab" on BBC1 10pm.

BBC is normally very, very, very cautious - eg Marr in 2005 said GE was very uncertain, nobody sure what was happening in marginals etc.

Laura comment is strong pointer.

I did go to vote today - spoiling my ballot for the council and only expressing one choice for the PCC

Friends who were manning polling stations have reported sub 20% turnout in parts of Oxford

AndreaParma_82 said:

Labour concerned and Tory positive about Vale of Clwyd

Wasn't that a surprise gain for the Blues at the GE last year?

TheScreamingEagles said:

GIN1138 said:

Listening to Sky News, sounds like Labour's in for a drubbing tonight (surely Jezza will be toast after the referendum)

I didn't bother voting in the end...

Typical Labour voter, can't be arsed to go out and vote.

Or won't vote for the party where it has nothing in common with me or my family.

Conservatives expect a 8-10% swing in Gower. They need a 9% swing to take it

Danny565 said:

AndyJS said:

chestnut said:

St Annes Sunderland

Lab 71.4 (1371 votes)
Con 28.6 (548 votes)

Turnout 24.3%

In 2011

Lab 71.4 ( 1908 votes)
Con 16.3% ( 436 votes)
Grn 8.9% (238 votes)
LD 3.4% (90 votes)

Swing: Lab to Con 6.15%

Sorry to be brusque but you have to compare with 2012.

Nope. Comparative point in the last election cycle is 2011.

Hasn't this point been discussed to death on here? 2012 is correct in terms of seats being fought, 2011 is in terms of "number of years since a GE" which I don't think is as compelling.

Ave_it said:

Ave it projection Scotland

SNP have won!

SNP will get their majority on constituency seats alone! LD will get Orkney and Shetland, we (CON) will get two or three, LAB will get 0 so SNP get about 68

CON will come through on the list, we will be second; LAB third; GRN fourth

SNP will get virtually nothing on the list

Surely SNP will get list seats in the south if CON are on 2/3.

Danny565 said:

AndyJS said:

chestnut said:

St Annes Sunderland

Lab 71.4 (1371 votes)
Con 28.6 (548 votes)

Turnout 24.3%

In 2011

Lab 71.4 ( 1908 votes)
Con 16.3% ( 436 votes)
Grn 8.9% (238 votes)
LD 3.4% (90 votes)

Swing: Lab to Con 6.15%

Sorry to be brusque but you have to compare with 2012.

Nope. Comparative point in the last election cycle is 2011.

You're just wrong. And being very partisan.

Every news outlet will be comparing with 2012.

0/10 for Sky right now - the results are piling in and Boulton is talking about results in next 90 mins FFS

FrancisUrquhart said:

When does justin124 come along and tell us this is still all good for labour?

Still waiting on Basil!

HurstLlama said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Now hang on, I see people are judging French food by experiences in Dieppe or Normandy.

Err, no.

Normandy isn't in France? I know it shouldn't be but I am fairly sure it is.

As I said in my first post I can only judge but what I have experienced and that is Normandy and the old battlefields and the food in the standard eateries is, in the main, poor. I can get better and for a similar price at anyone of half a dozen pubs within a few miles of my home.

Sure, Normandy is in France, just as Sunderland is in England. (To be fair to the Normands, the food isn't that bad).

chestnut said:

AndreaParma_82 said:

shouldn't you compare with 2012 (which will probably show a worst swing away from Lab)?

chestnut said:

St Annes Sunderland

Lab 71.4 (1371 votes)
Con 28.6 (548 votes)

Turnout 24.3%

In 2011

Lab 71.4 ( 1908 votes)
Con 16.3% ( 436 votes)
Grn 8.9% (238 votes)
LD 3.4% (90 votes)

Swing: Lab to Con 6.15%

Possibly - but aren't we at the same point in the electoral cycle as 2011?

The 2012 Lab to Con swing is bigger - closer to 8%.

Most local councils work on a 4 year cycle, so the councillors up for election tonight were last elected in 2012 - at the high point of Ed in the last Parliament.

HYUFD said:

SeanT said:

HYUFD said:

SeanT said:

fpt for Francis U

Yes, there's a truth in that. In some respects France has just been naturally overtaken by competitors, who learned from her pioneering supremacy, then applied her techniques with greater innovation or resources.

The same happened to the English/British with all the sports we invented. People copied us at football, then, thanks to sheer weight of numbers, we eventually got outstripped - there were bound to be countries which could beat us at football.

Yet the food in France, if I'm not mistaken, is a different case. It isn't just in relative decline (as is the case with the wine) - it's in absolute decline, actively getting a lot worse. Very odd. And rather sad.

I have always found you can eat very well in most French towns with a higher quality of food at a reasonable price than most British cafes, though at the top Michelin starred end the French supremacy may be over. Generally they are friendly, especially if you at least attempt to speak the language. Italy is a great country too but France has Paris, the Mediterrenean climate in the south and lots of history and is the most visited country in the world for a reason

It's simply not true any more, tho. Most French bistros now serve reheated frozen food.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/foodanddrink/foodanddrinknews/11533010/French-restaurants-are-just-re-heating-factory-food-chef-claims.html

I take no pleasure in this. I used to love going to France and anticipating the food. After this trip, which cements in place an uneasy impression that I'd already formed, I will never do that again. Sad.

It depends what you order too, the seafood in France tends to be excellent and the gesiers salads are always wonderful and I order them whenever they are on the menu

Agree with you on the salade de gesier. But Sean is right - French bistro food has declined massively since I lived in France in the 90s. I was in Lille this last week, bought several sandwiches made with either ficelle or baguette and on each occasion the bread was no better than you'd get at a Pret a manger in the UK or US. What happened to the baguette? It's all now pre-made, take out of the freezer and cook stuff.

AndyJS said:

Danny565 said:

AndyJS said:

chestnut said:

St Annes Sunderland

Lab 71.4 (1371 votes)
Con 28.6 (548 votes)

Turnout 24.3%

In 2011

Lab 71.4 ( 1908 votes)
Con 16.3% ( 436 votes)
Grn 8.9% (238 votes)
LD 3.4% (90 votes)

Swing: Lab to Con 6.15%

Sorry to be brusque but you have to compare with 2012.

Nope. Comparative point in the last election cycle is 2011.

You're just wrong. And being very partisan.

Every news outlet will be comparing with 2012.

"Every news outlet" also predicted a hung parliament last year.

On early signs, Labour are going to fare poorly even compared to 2011. However, that doesn't change the fact that it's a statement of the obvious that the only relevant comparisons are the corresponding points in the electoral cycle. Your argument is like saying you compare the state of the Premier League table in the August of a new season compared to the December of the previous season.

Tory on Tory in London. Party's GLA leader has attacked the Goldsmith campaign in very strong terms. This is what the Stupid party will focus on, ignoring the carnage everywhere else.

Richard_Nabavi said:

Wanderer said:

(That's to say, I think there are two truly great world centres of food. One is in Europe, the other South-east Asia. There's lots of brilliant food from elsewhere but those are the places, above all, where humans have really understood how to cook. For my money the pinnacle in Europe is Italy.)

With my heritage, I can't leave that unchallenged!

Middle eastern, and especially Persian, cuisine is superb. Buy this book:

https://www.amazon.co.uk/Legendary-Cuisine-Persia-Margaret-Shaida/dp/1902304608

As regards France vs Italy, the problem with Italian cuisine is that the meals as a whole are badly conceived. Superb dishes, yes, let down by a lack of coherent structure of the meal as a whole (whoever thought bunging pasta in between the hors d'oeuvre and the meat or fish course was a good idea?)

Middle eastern food can be fantastic. Actually, if I had to eat one region's cuisine forever I think that would be it. I've never been to Iran, though, so I probably haven't had the best Persian cooking. I've ordered Ms Shaida's book though. Thanks for the recommendation.

@paulhutcheon: Labour pal: 'We're fucked.' #sp16

Danny565 said:

AndyJS said:

Danny565 said:

AndyJS said:

chestnut said:

St Annes Sunderland

Lab 71.4 (1371 votes)
Con 28.6 (548 votes)

Turnout 24.3%

In 2011

Lab 71.4 ( 1908 votes)
Con 16.3% ( 436 votes)
Grn 8.9% (238 votes)
LD 3.4% (90 votes)

Swing: Lab to Con 6.15%

Sorry to be brusque but you have to compare with 2012.

Nope. Comparative point in the last election cycle is 2011.

You're just wrong. And being very partisan.

Every news outlet will be comparing with 2012.

"Every news outlet" also predicted a hung parliament last year.

On early signs, Labour are going to fare poorly even compared to 2011. However, that doesn't change the fact that it's a statement of the obvious that the only relevant comparisons are the corresponding points in the electoral cycle. Your argument is like saying you compare the state of the Premier League table in the August of a new season compared to the December of the previous season.

Just because they called it wrong, doesn't make their comparison incorrect.

It would actually be comparing a one third of the premier league to another third. Some areas that voted in 2011 wont be voting in today, and vice versa.

Dan Hodges ‏@DPJHodges 2m2 minutes ago
Report Labour vote down 12% in Sunderland.

RobD said:

AndreaParma_82 said:

Labour concerned and Tory positive about Vale of Clwyd

Wasn't that a surprise gain for the Blues at the GE last year?

yes.

FrancisUrquhart said:

oxfordsimon said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

When does justin124 come along and tell us this is still all good for labour?

Actually the worse it is for Labour tonight, the better it is for Labour in the long term.

Some might say for the country as a whole as a useless opposition is bad for everybody, but justin124 likes to inform.us we are all ignorant about the state of play at this point in the cycle.

Yes - but tonight could mark the start of Labour returning to some sense of normality...I wouldn't count on it though

https://twitter.com/BBCTimFranks/status/728347464063930369

oxfordsimon said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

oxfordsimon said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

When does justin124 come along and tell us this is still all good for labour?

Actually the worse it is for Labour tonight, the better it is for Labour in the long term.

Some might say for the country as a whole as a useless opposition is bad for everybody, but justin124 likes to inform.us we are all ignorant about the state of play at this point in the cycle.

Yes - but tonight could mark the start of Labour returning to some sense of normality...I wouldn't count on it though

Don't forget it is all false consciousness if Labour vote is poor.

RobD said:

Danny565 said:

AndyJS said:

Danny565 said:

AndyJS said:

chestnut said:

St Annes Sunderland

Lab 71.4 (1371 votes)
Con 28.6 (548 votes)

Turnout 24.3%

In 2011

Lab 71.4 ( 1908 votes)
Con 16.3% ( 436 votes)
Grn 8.9% (238 votes)
LD 3.4% (90 votes)

Swing: Lab to Con 6.15%

Sorry to be brusque but you have to compare with 2012.

Nope. Comparative point in the last election cycle is 2011.

You're just wrong. And being very partisan.

Every news outlet will be comparing with 2012.

"Every news outlet" also predicted a hung parliament last year.

On early signs, Labour are going to fare poorly even compared to 2011. However, that doesn't change the fact that it's a statement of the obvious that the only relevant comparisons are the corresponding points in the electoral cycle. Your argument is like saying you compare the state of the Premier League table in the August of a new season compared to the December of the previous season.

Just because they called it wrong, doesn't make their comparison incorrect.

It would actually be comparing a one third of the premier league to another third. Some areas that voted in 2011 wont be voting in 2012, and vice versa.

But the point is it would be like saying "Man City only had 20 points on the table in October 2014, that means they are doing worse than they were in December 2013 when they had 30 points".

Well yes, technically it would be true that they were doing worse in October 2014 than in December 2013 -- because they were completely different points in the cycle, where it's fundamentally more difficult to have amassed the kind of tally you would later on. While it's technically true, it's not a useful or relevant comparison to make.

The only like-for-like comparisons would be October to October, December to December, etc. - just like you can only compare the first year of one electoral cycle to the first year of another electoral cycle (i.e. 2011 and 2016) -- on which measure, it looks like Labour will also perform poorly anyway

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/BBCTimFranks/status/728347464063930369

That's it, I'm definitely Remain.

MTimT said:

Plato_Says said:

twitter.com/UKGE2020/status/728351448543670272

Isn't this rather more like Lab to UKIP swing of 12-13% with no swing to Con.

That's the trouble with two party swings.

Danny565 said:

RobD said:

Danny565 said:

AndyJS said:

Danny565 said:

AndyJS said:

chestnut said:

St Annes Sunderland

Lab 71.4 (1371 votes)
Con 28.6 (548 votes)

Turnout 24.3%

In 2011

Lab 71.4 ( 1908 votes)
Con 16.3% ( 436 votes)
Grn 8.9% (238 votes)
LD 3.4% (90 votes)

Swing: Lab to Con 6.15%

Sorry to be brusque but you have to compare with 2012.

Nope. Comparative point in the last election cycle is 2011.

You're just wrong. And being very partisan.

Every news outlet will be comparing with 2012.

"Every news outlet" also predicted a hung parliament last year.

On early signs, Labour are going to fare poorly even compared to 2011. However, that doesn't change the fact that it's a statement of the obvious that the only relevant comparisons are the corresponding points in the electoral cycle. Your argument is like saying you compare the state of the Premier League table in the August of a new season compared to the December of the previous season.

Just because they called it wrong, doesn't make their comparison incorrect.

It would actually be comparing a one third of the premier league to another third. Some areas that voted in 2011 wont be voting in 2012, and vice versa.

But the point is it would be like saying "Man City only had 20 points on the table in October 2014, that means they are doing worse than they are in December 2013 when they had 30 points".

Well yes, technically it would be true that they were doing worse in October 2014 than in December 2013 -- because they were completely different points in the cycle, where it's fundamentally more difficult to have amassed the kind of tally you would later on.

False equivalency Danny. Your comments are usually better than that.

Your comparisons are akin to suggesting that we should compare results in different competitions, e.g. FA Cup and Premier League.

SouthamObserver said:

Apparently Trump has come out in favour of Brexit.

Well that's f##ked the leave campaign ;-)

I've bet on Tories coming second in Scotland, think I'll let that one run rather than laying it off.

On these very early results and reports it looks like the Conservatives will lead Labour by about 5% nationally.

The only time an opposition party has been further behind in a non general election year would be 1982 - the year of the Falklands War and after the SDP breakaway.

The large Cognac in front of me (purely for medicinal purposes) is proving that the frogs still get somethings right.

Sky news
Political Editor of Glasgow paper

" there's no surge to the Tories it's only happening because Labour are doing so badly"

Glad we got that cleared up......

Liberal Democrat GAIN Millfield (Sunderland) from Labour.

As a Labour Member this is like watching West Ham under Glenn roeder or avram grant. You end up wanting to lose as badly as possible so they get fired. Unfortunately we don't appear to have slaven bilic (or even sam allardyce) waiting in the wings.

loving the election night music on the beeb, I've heard it so many times over the last year... not sure where...

What we need is some Tory councils, to see if UKIP are also making progress there. But I'll call it a night - happy watching all.

Scrapheap_as_was said:

loving the election night music on the beeb, I've heard it so many times over the last year... not sure where...

Titter....

It's got nothing on the tune they used in the 80s.