Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Welcome to the Looking-Glass

1234568

Comments

  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,698
    I know I should know this but...

    If Boris gets his deal through the HoC and we leave on 31 Oct, does anything actually change at that point or are we into a 'no change' transition?
  • Much as I rather we Remained, this deal is way better than a No Deal exit so I won't be distraught if it passes.

    Double amputation is way better than dying slowly of septicemia, but..

    I wonder if the effect of the foul tasting finality of actually leaving for people not invested in Leave is being underestimated (even by those people themselves)?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,729

    The problem with Corbyn is that he has no leadership skills or common sense whatsoever. Anybody with common sense would not be listening to Karie Murphy or Seamus Milne. I don’t get the sense that his left wing economic polices are the albatross around his neck, but just rather his general ineptitude. Plus, his attempt at triangulating on Brexit has hugely damaged his brand. For a man that was supposed to stand for a definitive, principled left wing politics he has come to personify all the worse aspects of centrism on Brexit - ambiguity, assuming wrongly that the position in the ‘middle’ is the right one.

    Welcome back. I agree, it is Corbyn's ineffectiveness that has killed his popularity more than anything.
  • I know I should know this but...

    If Boris gets his deal through the HoC and we leave on 31 Oct, does anything actually change at that point or are we into a 'no change' transition?

    We go into transistion and as Juncker said the negotiations on a FTA begin immediately on the 1st November
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Brexiteer whining about the consequences of Brexit. Part 15674735 in a series...

    https://twitter.com/iainmartin1/status/1184941468953333765
  • I know I should know this but...

    If Boris gets his deal through the HoC and we leave on 31 Oct, does anything actually change at that point or are we into a 'no change' transition?

    Pretty much no change transition
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,865

    DavidL said:

    Alistair said:

    DavidL said:

    geoffw said:

    This is a useful summary of the key changes in the Boris WA compared with Theresa's.
    https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/10/boris-johnsons-brexit-deal-eight-key-changes/

    If the Spectator is right then the new deal is really quite different from the old. Whether it will prove better is harder to say but it has been fast and remarkable work to put this together. The EU has given a lot of ground. Somewhat contrary to the mood music of the last few weeks.
    The mood music was based on the idea that Boris wasn't as shameless as of course he fucking is.
    Nah it was based on the inherent superiority and condescension of the EU, the incompetence and mendaciousness of the British government and a slight bizarre desire to see our own country humiliated for having the stupidity to vote leave. It turned out to be total unadulterated crap. Quelle surprise as our French friends would say.
    Although this revised deal is better than May's deal for the EU of course.
    I confess that’s what I thought but if the Spectator summary is accurate I am not so sure. This is a much harder Brexit with us much less committed to regulatory equivalence and some real compromises on what used to be the sacrosanct integrity of the SM. What we choose to do with that freedom is of course up for grabs but this has the potential to lead to a much less close relationship with the EU than Mays deal.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,698

    I know I should know this but...

    If Boris gets his deal through the HoC and we leave on 31 Oct, does anything actually change at that point or are we into a 'no change' transition?

    We go into transistion and as Juncker said the negotiations on a FTA begin immediately on the 1st November
    Thanks... no impact on my December cruise plans then, that's a big plus for me :wink:
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    Scott_P said:

    Brexiteer whining about the consequences of Brexit. Part 15674735 in a series...

    https://twitter.com/iainmartin1/status/1184941468953333765

    The deal required a customs border to be put somewhere. Where would it go in Scotland's case?
  • rural_voterrural_voter Posts: 2,038

    I know I should know this but...

    If Boris gets his deal through the HoC and we leave on 31 Oct, does anything actually change at that point or are we into a 'no change' transition?

    We go into transistion and as Juncker said the negotiations on a FTA begin immediately on the 1st November
    and carry on for the next 5-10 years ...
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677
    RobD said:



    We've probably all heard this one, but it's a good'un.

    "In 1942," he says, "the situation was really tough. The Germans had a very strong air force. I remember, " he continues, "one day I was protecting the bombers and suddenly, out of the clouds, these fokkers appeared.

    (At this point, several of the children giggle.)

    I looked up, and right above me was one of them. I aimed at him and shot him down. They were swarming. I immediately realized that there was another fokker behind me."

    At this instant the girls in the auditorium start to giggle and boys start to laugh. The teacher stands up and says, "I think I should point out that 'Fokker' was the name of the German-Dutch aircraft company"

    "That's true," says the pilot, "but these fokkers were flying Messerschmidts."

    It's complete balls. The Luftwaffe didn't operate any Fokker types in WW2.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    RobD said:

    The deal required a customs border to be put somewhere. Where would it go in Scotland's case?

    The same place it would go if Scotland seceded.

    The SNP are quite happy to have a border. That's kind of the point.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,698
    edited October 2019
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Alistair said:

    DavidL said:

    geoffw said:

    This is a useful summary of the key changes in the Boris WA compared with Theresa's.
    https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/10/boris-johnsons-brexit-deal-eight-key-changes/

    If the Spectator is right then the new deal is really quite different from the old. Whether it will prove better is harder to say but it has been fast and remarkable work to put this together. The EU has given a lot of ground. Somewhat contrary to the mood music of the last few weeks.
    The mood music was based on the idea that Boris wasn't as shameless as of course he fucking is.
    Nah it was based on the inherent superiority and condescension of the EU, the incompetence and mendaciousness of the British government and a slight bizarre desire to see our own country humiliated for having the stupidity to vote leave. It turned out to be total unadulterated crap. Quelle surprise as our French friends would say.
    Although this revised deal is better than May's deal for the EU of course.
    I confess that’s what I thought but if the Spectator summary is accurate I am not so sure. This is a much harder Brexit with us much less committed to regulatory equivalence and some real compromises on what used to be the sacrosanct integrity of the SM. What we choose to do with that freedom is of course up for grabs but this has the potential to lead to a much less close relationship with the EU than Mays deal.
    If we want a FTA with the EU we'll be signing up to regulatory equivalence imo.

    With May's deal we had free access to the CU guaranteed by the backstop :smile:
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    Dura_Ace said:

    RobD said:



    We've probably all heard this one, but it's a good'un.

    "In 1942," he says, "the situation was really tough. The Germans had a very strong air force. I remember, " he continues, "one day I was protecting the bombers and suddenly, out of the clouds, these fokkers appeared.

    (At this point, several of the children giggle.)

    I looked up, and right above me was one of them. I aimed at him and shot him down. They were swarming. I immediately realized that there was another fokker behind me."

    At this instant the girls in the auditorium start to giggle and boys start to laugh. The teacher stands up and says, "I think I should point out that 'Fokker' was the name of the German-Dutch aircraft company"

    "That's true," says the pilot, "but these fokkers were flying Messerschmidts."

    It's complete balls. The Luftwaffe didn't operate any Fokker types in WW2.
    Yes, but I don't think it is supposed to be factually accurate, just funny.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    Peston says 18 to 19 Tory rebels will vote for the deal .

    I can’t see Bebb, Grieve or Greening voting for this . So at most 18 .

    Interesting however that Letwin will try and amend the Benn Act to make sure that all the legislation has to pass before that’s nullified .

    That’s a good move and means the EU can start ratifying with less worries about a last minute drama .
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Does BoZo have the numbers?

    I think he might, although the court case tomorrow might provide an unfortunate spanner or two.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,865
    RobD said:

    Scott_P said:

    Brexiteer whining about the consequences of Brexit. Part 15674735 in a series...

    https://twitter.com/iainmartin1/status/1184941468953333765

    The deal required a customs border to be put somewhere. Where would it go in Scotland's case?
    What about the M8? It’s usually a car park anyway.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,729

    I know I should know this but...

    If Boris gets his deal through the HoC and we leave on 31 Oct, does anything actually change at that point or are we into a 'no change' transition?

    We go into transistion and as Juncker said the negotiations on a FTA begin immediately on the 1st November
    and carry on for the next 5-10 years ...
    Of which only 14 months occur during Transition.
  • I know I should know this but...

    If Boris gets his deal through the HoC and we leave on 31 Oct, does anything actually change at that point or are we into a 'no change' transition?

    We go into transistion and as Juncker said the negotiations on a FTA begin immediately on the 1st November
    Thanks... no impact on my December cruise plans then, that's a big plus for me :wink:
    And the pound will rise.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    If Boris's deal passes on Saturday what happens about the general election?

    There's still the small matter of his QS to pass on Monday or Tuesday?
  • I know I should know this but...

    If Boris gets his deal through the HoC and we leave on 31 Oct, does anything actually change at that point or are we into a 'no change' transition?

    We go into transistion and as Juncker said the negotiations on a FTA begin immediately on the 1st November
    and carry on for the next 5-10 years ...
    Maybe but that is for the future
  • surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,469
    nico67 said:

    Peston says 18 to 19 Tory rebels will vote for the deal .

    I can’t see Bebb, Grieve or Greening voting for this . So at most 18 .

    Interesting however that Letwin will try and amend the Benn Act to make sure that all the legislation has to pass before that’s nullified .

    That’s a good move and means the EU can start ratifying with less worries about a last minute drama .

    Boles, Gyimah ?
  • Pulpstar said:

    Andrew said:


    That's pretty astonishing. Is he giving up?
    Ronnie Campbell is a very good friend of his.
    Not even 100 IQ between them
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,237
    There's another Iowa poll out...

    And it's giving exactly the same message as the last two:

    Biden 23%
    Warren 23%
    Buttigieg 16%
    Sanders 13%

    Buttigieg is on the way up, Warren is still rising but but not at a great rate, and Biden and Sanders are slipping.

  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    edited October 2019
    Dura_Ace said:

    RobD said:



    We've probably all heard this one, but it's a good'un.

    "In 1942," he says, "the situation was really tough. The Germans had a very strong air force. I remember, " he continues, "one day I was protecting the bombers and suddenly, out of the clouds, these fokkers appeared.

    (At this point, several of the children giggle.)

    I looked up, and right above me was one of them. I aimed at him and shot him down. They were swarming. I immediately realized that there was another fokker behind me."

    At this instant the girls in the auditorium start to giggle and boys start to laugh. The teacher stands up and says, "I think I should point out that 'Fokker' was the name of the German-Dutch aircraft company"

    "That's true," says the pilot, "but these fokkers were flying Messerschmidts."

    It's complete balls. The Luftwaffe didn't operate any Fokker types in WW2.
    That’s the point of the joke.
  • nico67 said:

    Peston says 18 to 19 Tory rebels will vote for the deal .

    I can’t see Bebb, Grieve or Greening voting for this . So at most 18 .

    Interesting however that Letwin will try and amend the Benn Act to make sure that all the legislation has to pass before that’s nullified .

    That’s a good move and means the EU can start ratifying with less worries about a last minute drama .

    Letwin will vote for the deal
  • eggegg Posts: 1,749

    Andrew said:


    That's pretty astonishing. Is he giving up?
    And not bothering with a 2nd ref unless this fails Saturday.....
    Is he tacitly allowing Brexit and going for an election?!
    It will be a four line whip come Friday night. Any Labour MP voting for this deal will lose the whip and their Labour career. What those Labour MPs would say is they haven’t had the guarantees about workers rights and the environment. If you don’t know what is going to happen you haven’t been paying attention the last 12 months. 😁

    It is going to lose by at least 40. Johnson will then put a motion to the house to put the deal to the country v remain. It will pass by about 250. Johnson will then secure extension with EU, at least six months, to achieve this plebiscite. He won’t even bother to try for an election.

    Why do we know all this? The same one word that created the 2016 ref in the first place. Farage. Farage and brexit party insisting from now the only brexit deal is no deal. And what we have learnt from the painful trades to create this deal, Boris government won’t no deal.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,698
    Dura_Ace said:

    RobD said:



    We've probably all heard this one, but it's a good'un.

    "In 1942," he says, "the situation was really tough. The Germans had a very strong air force. I remember, " he continues, "one day I was protecting the bombers and suddenly, out of the clouds, these fokkers appeared.

    (At this point, several of the children giggle.)

    I looked up, and right above me was one of them. I aimed at him and shot him down. They were swarming. I immediately realized that there was another fokker behind me."

    At this instant the girls in the auditorium start to giggle and boys start to laugh. The teacher stands up and says, "I think I should point out that 'Fokker' was the name of the German-Dutch aircraft company"

    "That's true," says the pilot, "but these fokkers were flying Messerschmidts."

    It's complete balls. The Luftwaffe didn't operate any Fokker types in WW2.
    Replace Fokker with Focke ?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,236
    rcs1000 said:

    There's another Iowa poll out...

    And it's giving exactly the same message as the last two:

    Biden 23%
    Warren 23%
    Buttigieg 16%
    Sanders 13%

    Buttigieg is on the way up, Warren is still rising but but not at a great rate, and Biden and Sanders are slipping.

    And Buttigieg’s percentage in S Carolina ?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,237

    The sum total has some Democrats envisioning something that seemed unlikely only a few weeks ago – a race for the nomination that comes down to Warren or Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) on the left, with an opening for Buttigieg to supplant Biden as the party’s centrist standard-bearer.

    https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/466202-buttigieg-emerges-as-new-threat-to-biden-after-debate

    You heard it from me first.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,865

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Alistair said:

    DavidL said:

    geoffw said:

    This is a useful summary of the key changes in the Boris WA compared with Theresa's.
    https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/10/boris-johnsons-brexit-deal-eight-key-changes/

    If the Spectator is right then the new deal is really quite different from the old. Whether it will prove better is harder to say but it has been fast and remarkable work to put this together. The EU has given a lot of ground. Somewhat contrary to the mood music of the last few weeks.
    The mood music was based on the idea that Boris wasn't as shameless as of course he fucking is.
    Nah it was based on the inherent superiority and condescension of the EU, the incompetence and mendaciousness of the British government and a slight bizarre desire to see our own country humiliated for having the stupidity to vote leave. It turned out to be total unadulterated crap. Quelle surprise as our French friends would say.
    Although this revised deal is better than May's deal for the EU of course.
    I confess that’s what I thought but if the Spectator summary is accurate I am not so sure. This is a much harder Brexit with us much less committed to regulatory equivalence and some real compromises on what used to be the sacrosanct integrity of the SM. What we choose to do with that freedom is of course up for grabs but this has the potential to lead to a much less close relationship with the EU than Mays deal.
    If we want a FTA with the EU we'll be signing up to regulatory equivalence imo.

    With May's deal we had free access to the CU guaranteed by the backstop :smile:
    True and softies like me quite liked that but I can see why the EU did too. This is much more appealing to the sane wing of the ERG if there is such a thing.
  • Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,307
    Good evening from the Special Administrative Region of Northern Ireland

    One country, two systems
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,449
    DavidL said:

    geoffw said:

    This is a useful summary of the key changes in the Boris WA compared with Theresa's.
    https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/10/boris-johnsons-brexit-deal-eight-key-changes/

    If the Spectator is right then the new deal is really quite different from the old. Whether it will prove better is harder to say but it has been fast and remarkable work to put this together. The EU has given a lot of ground. Somewhat contrary to the mood music of the last few weeks.
    Which of the EU’s red lines have they given in on?
  • surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,469
    RobD said:

    Scott_P said:

    Brexiteer whining about the consequences of Brexit. Part 15674735 in a series...

    https://twitter.com/iainmartin1/status/1184941468953333765

    The deal required a customs border to be put somewhere. Where would it go in Scotland's case?
    Exactly the line which differentiates England from Scotland.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502

    nico67 said:

    Peston says 18 to 19 Tory rebels will vote for the deal .

    I can’t see Bebb, Grieve or Greening voting for this . So at most 18 .

    Interesting however that Letwin will try and amend the Benn Act to make sure that all the legislation has to pass before that’s nullified .

    That’s a good move and means the EU can start ratifying with less worries about a last minute drama .

    Letwin will vote for the deal
    I know. His concern is stopping a last minute disaster if the WAIB hits problems .
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,239
    Looking at the numbers, the deal is likely to pass on the votes of a few Labour MPs.

    Which will be manna from heaven for Jo Swinson at the subsequent GE. Assuming, that is, that Norman Lamb doesn’t blunt that line of attack by voting for the deal.
  • nico67 said:

    Peston says 18 to 19 Tory rebels will vote for the deal .

    I can’t see Bebb, Grieve or Greening voting for this . So at most 18 .

    Interesting however that Letwin will try and amend the Benn Act to make sure that all the legislation has to pass before that’s nullified .

    That’s a good move and means the EU can start ratifying with less worries about a last minute drama .

    Boles, Gyimah ?
    I answered that before - Boles yes Gyimah no
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,698

    I know I should know this but...

    If Boris gets his deal through the HoC and we leave on 31 Oct, does anything actually change at that point or are we into a 'no change' transition?

    We go into transistion and as Juncker said the negotiations on a FTA begin immediately on the 1st November
    Thanks... no impact on my December cruise plans then, that's a big plus for me :wink:
    And the pound will rise.
    It's with P&O so no real impact. But next year's trips will be cheaper for sure.

    Not than I am being selfish about this :wink:
  • nico67 said:

    Peston says 18 to 19 Tory rebels will vote for the deal .

    I can’t see Bebb, Grieve or Greening voting for this . So at most 18 .

    Interesting however that Letwin will try and amend the Benn Act to make sure that all the legislation has to pass before that’s nullified .

    That’s a good move and means the EU can start ratifying with less worries about a last minute drama .

    Boles, Gyimah ?
    Boles "Securing a compromise Brexit deal is a major negotiating achievement for Boris Johnson. I congratulate him. I seem to remember him saying the Benn Act would stop the EU making the necessary concessions. He was wrong about that. In fact it helped bring Brexiteers to their senses."

    Sounds like a vote in favour
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    rcs1000 said:

    There's another Iowa poll out...

    And it's giving exactly the same message as the last two:

    Biden 23%
    Warren 23%
    Buttigieg 16%
    Sanders 13%

    Buttigieg is on the way up, Warren is still rising but but not at a great rate, and Biden and Sanders are slipping.

    Gonna be a surprise in Iowa.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676
    Christ I find myself in agreement with the Daily Mail
  • ydoethur said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Gabs2 said:

    Remainers and Faragists are really trying to spin things hard but I don't see any of their arguments really having punch. When I was arguing for May's deal, it was hard to defend the lack of consent in the backstop. And while I want the UK in the Customs Union, I could see how the inability to sign our own trade deals was powerful to Leavers.

    Now though, there is not much the opponents have. They are trying to push this "carving up the UK" line but it doesn't stick. NI has always been constitutionally in the UK but a more mixed status pratically: British but with the right to Irish passports, represented at Westminster but with her own law, representative democracy but with extra double majority requirements for Irish nationalists. This deal continues that grand tradition: under UK law but with regulatory exceptions for agrifood and industrial goods, checks on goods but not personal possessions, part of UK trade deals but with access to the single market. There is no sizable shift, even while Remainers try to play it up, because it is the only line they have.

    There will be a border down the Irish Sea. As explained by that arch remainer Nigel Farage today in Brussels.

    That is a bold move for the Conservative and Unionist Party.
    What party ???

    I don't think I've ever seen that party on any ballot paper I've had.

    People concerned about the Unionist aspect should have taken note of that.
    The party that Jacob Rees Mogg is a member of. The same party that outlawed the creation of a border down the Irish Sea.

    That party.
    This Jacob Rees-Mogg, the Conservative candidate in North-East Somerset not the Conservative and Unionist:

    https://www.bathnes.gov.uk/sites/default/files/sitedocuments/Your-Council/Elections/ukpge_statement_of_persons_nominated_nes.pdf

    My point is relevant and perhaps not realised in NI or Scotland for that matter.

    In England its the Conservative party and the Unionist bit doesn't seem to be of much interest.
    The full, official name of the party is ‘the Conservative and Unionist Party’ but since 1925 it has generally used ‘Conservative’ only in England.
    I remember when the LibDems started off as the 'Social and Liberal Democrats' and David Owen referred to them as 'The Salads'.
    What a radish Owen was
  • nico67 said:

    Peston says 18 to 19 Tory rebels will vote for the deal .

    I can’t see Bebb, Grieve or Greening voting for this . So at most 18 .

    Interesting however that Letwin will try and amend the Benn Act to make sure that all the legislation has to pass before that’s nullified .

    That’s a good move and means the EU can start ratifying with less worries about a last minute drama .

    If true and with all the conservatives that would reach 305 leaving just 15 labour and independents to vote for it

    Interested to hear Ken Clarke response and one to watch on saturday
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,151

    Looking at the numbers, the deal is likely to pass on the votes of a few Labour MPs.

    Which will be manna from heaven for Jo Swinson at the subsequent GE. Assuming, that is, that Norman Lamb doesn’t blunt that line of attack by voting for the deal.

    In which case Leavers will move to the Tories (or Brexit Party if they are ultra hardline), Remainers will move to the LDs and Corbyn Labour will get squeezed
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Dura_Ace said:

    RobD said:



    We've probably all heard this one, but it's a good'un.

    "In 1942," he says, "the situation was really tough. The Germans had a very strong air force. I remember, " he continues, "one day I was protecting the bombers and suddenly, out of the clouds, these fokkers appeared.

    (At this point, several of the children giggle.)

    I looked up, and right above me was one of them. I aimed at him and shot him down. They were swarming. I immediately realized that there was another fokker behind me."

    At this instant the girls in the auditorium start to giggle and boys start to laugh. The teacher stands up and says, "I think I should point out that 'Fokker' was the name of the German-Dutch aircraft company"

    "That's true," says the pilot, "but these fokkers were flying Messerschmidts."

    It's complete balls. The Luftwaffe didn't operate any Fokker types in WW2.
    No fokker was calling a fw190 by it's full title when it was bouncing them.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,698
    nico67 said:

    nico67 said:

    Peston says 18 to 19 Tory rebels will vote for the deal .

    I can’t see Bebb, Grieve or Greening voting for this . So at most 18 .

    Interesting however that Letwin will try and amend the Benn Act to make sure that all the legislation has to pass before that’s nullified .

    That’s a good move and means the EU can start ratifying with less worries about a last minute drama .

    Letwin will vote for the deal
    I know. His concern is stopping a last minute disaster if the WAIB hits problems .
    I think he's wise to be concerned. You can imagine ERG extremists voting for the MV then refusing to back the follow-up legislation to force No Deal.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,216
    rcs1000 said:

    There's another Iowa poll out...

    And it's giving exactly the same message as the last two:

    Biden 23%
    Warren 23%
    Buttigieg 16%
    Sanders 13%

    Buttigieg is on the way up, Warren is still rising but but not at a great rate, and Biden and Sanders are slipping.

    I like this 4 horse race where I've backed all the horses.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502

    DavidL said:

    geoffw said:

    This is a useful summary of the key changes in the Boris WA compared with Theresa's.
    https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/10/boris-johnsons-brexit-deal-eight-key-changes/

    If the Spectator is right then the new deal is really quite different from the old. Whether it will prove better is harder to say but it has been fast and remarkable work to put this together. The EU has given a lot of ground. Somewhat contrary to the mood music of the last few weeks.
    Which of the EU’s red lines have they given in on?
    None , it’s also a huge win for Varadkar . The EU never wanted a UK wide customs union.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,237
    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    There's another Iowa poll out...

    And it's giving exactly the same message as the last two:

    Biden 23%
    Warren 23%
    Buttigieg 16%
    Sanders 13%

    Buttigieg is on the way up, Warren is still rising but but not at a great rate, and Biden and Sanders are slipping.

    And Buttigieg’s percentage in S Carolina ?
    In 2016, Guiliani had "the Florida firewall". He ignored New Hampshire and Iowa because he was going to win Florida and top the delegate count when that state voted.

    But because he lost in Iowa and New Hampshire, he flopped in Florida. Early states define the candidates who matter. If Biden loses the first two, do you really think he'll hang on to all that support in South Carolina?

    Look at the churn in opinion polls post the Iowa debates in 2004, 2008 and 2016. It's massive. We have to expect that this time around.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,698

    nico67 said:

    Peston says 18 to 19 Tory rebels will vote for the deal .

    I can’t see Bebb, Grieve or Greening voting for this . So at most 18 .

    Interesting however that Letwin will try and amend the Benn Act to make sure that all the legislation has to pass before that’s nullified .

    That’s a good move and means the EU can start ratifying with less worries about a last minute drama .

    If true and with all the conservatives that would reach 305 leaving just 15 labour and independents to vote for it

    Interested to hear Ken Clarke response and one to watch on saturday
    I thought he'd already indicated he'd vote for any deal.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,236
    Cracking article, Cyclefree.
    I can’t disagree with it, as it confirms my impressions (except in greater detail and far more clearly than I might have managed to set out).

    Johnson will have pulled off a considerable con trick should he manage to sell the deal to all who rejected May’s version out of hand. But just as I would have reluctantly accepted May’s deal, I would accept this one too, if the alternative is no deal.

    Even if I do regard it with a degree of contempt.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,729
    rcs1000 said:

    There's another Iowa poll out...

    And it's giving exactly the same message as the last two:

    Biden 23%
    Warren 23%
    Buttigieg 16%
    Sanders 13%

    Buttigieg is on the way up, Warren is still rising but but not at a great rate, and Biden and Sanders are slipping.

    Nowhere near that in the other early contests though. He is staking all on Iowa, for example:

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-d/california/
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,237
    Pulpstar said:

    rcs1000 said:

    There's another Iowa poll out...

    And it's giving exactly the same message as the last two:

    Biden 23%
    Warren 23%
    Buttigieg 16%
    Sanders 13%

    Buttigieg is on the way up, Warren is still rising but but not at a great rate, and Biden and Sanders are slipping.

    I like this 4 horse race where I've backed all the horses.
    Who's the fourth horse?
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,131
    @Cyclefree : I liked the article, thank you.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502

    nico67 said:

    Peston says 18 to 19 Tory rebels will vote for the deal .

    I can’t see Bebb, Grieve or Greening voting for this . So at most 18 .

    Interesting however that Letwin will try and amend the Benn Act to make sure that all the legislation has to pass before that’s nullified .

    That’s a good move and means the EU can start ratifying with less worries about a last minute drama .

    If true and with all the conservatives that would reach 305 leaving just 15 labour and independents to vote for it

    Interested to hear Ken Clarke response and one to watch on saturday
    Ken Clarke will vote yes .
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,117
    The genius of Boris Johnson....his narcissism and sense of entitlement has driven the UK these last 3 years or so..The UK has become the BoJo Brexit show.....and now with his Deal....and a subsequent GE victory.....we'll have him for a further 5 years....
  • eggegg Posts: 1,749

    Christ I find myself in agreement with the Daily Mail
    That it’s a patriotic duty to pass a shit deal because we are tired of all this and want to move on? 😃
  • egg said:

    Andrew said:


    That's pretty astonishing. Is he giving up?
    And not bothering with a 2nd ref unless this fails Saturday.....
    Is he tacitly allowing Brexit and going for an election?!
    It will be a four line whip come Friday night. Any Labour MP voting for this deal will lose the whip and their Labour career. What those Labour MPs would say is they haven’t had the guarantees about workers rights and the environment. If you don’t know what is going to happen you haven’t been paying attention the last 12 months. 😁

    It is going to lose by at least 40. Johnson will then put a motion to the house to put the deal to the country v remain. It will pass by about 250. Johnson will then secure extension with EU, at least six months, to achieve this plebiscite. He won’t even bother to try for an election.

    Why do we know all this? The same one word that created the 2016 ref in the first place. Farage. Farage and brexit party insisting from now the only brexit deal is no deal. And what we have learnt from the painful trades to create this deal, Boris government won’t no deal.
    Looks like you have missed Corbyns comment tonight that any labour mp voting for the deal will not lose the whip. I think he has given up
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    rcs1000 said:

    There's another Iowa poll out...

    And it's giving exactly the same message as the last two:

    Biden 23%
    Warren 23%
    Buttigieg 16%
    Sanders 13%

    Buttigieg is on the way up, Warren is still rising but but not at a great rate, and Biden and Sanders are slipping.

    Ah rebe that far off time when Biden was polling at 50% and some on here were proclaiming it was completely 100% definetly going to be Biden and we were idiots for suggesting it would be anyone else.

    If wonder what hyufenned to them?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,698

    rcs1000 said:

    There's another Iowa poll out...

    And it's giving exactly the same message as the last two:

    Biden 23%
    Warren 23%
    Buttigieg 16%
    Sanders 13%

    Buttigieg is on the way up, Warren is still rising but but not at a great rate, and Biden and Sanders are slipping.

    Gonna be a surprise in Iowa.

    It's a way off yet... we might have left the EU and had a GE before Iowa!
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,131
    Y0kel said:

    Good evening from the Special Administrative Region of Northern Ireland

    One country, two systems

    Damn, I wanted to make that joke some days ago, but I, um, forgot. Genuinely.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    HYUFD said:

    Looking at the numbers, the deal is likely to pass on the votes of a few Labour MPs.

    Which will be manna from heaven for Jo Swinson at the subsequent GE. Assuming, that is, that Norman Lamb doesn’t blunt that line of attack by voting for the deal.

    In which case Leavers will move to the Tories (or Brexit Party if they are ultra hardline), Remainers will move to the LDs and Corbyn Labour will get squeezed
    Why would a Socialist or Social Democratic Leaver vote Tory?
  • I know I should know this but...

    If Boris gets his deal through the HoC and we leave on 31 Oct, does anything actually change at that point or are we into a 'no change' transition?

    We go into transistion and as Juncker said the negotiations on a FTA begin immediately on the 1st November
    Thanks... no impact on my December cruise plans then, that's a big plus for me :wink:
    And the pound will rise.
    It's with P&O so no real impact. But next year's trips will be cheaper for sure.

    Not than I am being selfish about this :wink:
    Why not.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,237
    Alistair said:

    rcs1000 said:

    There's another Iowa poll out...

    And it's giving exactly the same message as the last two:

    Biden 23%
    Warren 23%
    Buttigieg 16%
    Sanders 13%

    Buttigieg is on the way up, Warren is still rising but but not at a great rate, and Biden and Sanders are slipping.

    Ah rebe that far off time when Biden was polling at 50% and some on here were proclaiming it was completely 100% definetly going to be Biden and we were idiots for suggesting it would be anyone else.

    If wonder what hyufenned to them?
    He's now saying that when it's Warren and Trump wins, we'll all be sorry.

    When actually, we'll all be significantly richer because we bet against the dementure candidate.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,236
    rcs1000 said:

    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    There's another Iowa poll out...

    And it's giving exactly the same message as the last two:

    Biden 23%
    Warren 23%
    Buttigieg 16%
    Sanders 13%

    Buttigieg is on the way up, Warren is still rising but but not at a great rate, and Biden and Sanders are slipping.

    And Buttigieg’s percentage in S Carolina ?
    In 2016, Guiliani had "the Florida firewall". He ignored New Hampshire and Iowa because he was going to win Florida and top the delegate count when that state voted.

    But because he lost in Iowa and New Hampshire, he flopped in Florida. Early states define the candidates who matter. If Biden loses the first two, do you really think he'll hang on to all that support in South Carolina?.
    Quite probably a large chunk of it.

    Biden, for all his faults, is no Giuliani.
    And Buttigieg is no Trump. :smile:

  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    tyson said:

    The genius of Boris Johnson....his narcissism and sense of entitlement has driven the UK these last 3 years or so..The UK has become the BoJo Brexit show.....and now with his Deal....and a subsequent GE victory.....we'll have him for a further 5 years....

    And if that GE victory turns into a landslide it could be 10 years! :D
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,216
    edited October 2019
    Alex Wickham is normally the first journalist to piss on the Gov'ts parade.
    egg said:

    Christ I find myself in agreement with the Daily Mail
    That it’s a patriotic duty to pass a shit deal because we are tired of all this and want to move on? 😃
    It's alright we'll be in transition forever, but the vote will have been respected.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,798
    HYUFD said:
    That 40% seems kind of low given that it is probably only going to go down as the details of the deal are better understood and the initial relief dissipates.
  • eggegg Posts: 1,749
    HYUFD said:

    Looking at the numbers, the deal is likely to pass on the votes of a few Labour MPs.

    Which will be manna from heaven for Jo Swinson at the subsequent GE. Assuming, that is, that Norman Lamb doesn’t blunt that line of attack by voting for the deal.

    In which case Leavers will move to the Tories (or Brexit Party if they are ultra hardline), Remainers will move to the LDs and Corbyn Labour will get squeezed
    You are not making a good case for Labour to go soft on the whipping. 😃
  • DavidL said:

    geoffw said:

    This is a useful summary of the key changes in the Boris WA compared with Theresa's.
    https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/10/boris-johnsons-brexit-deal-eight-key-changes/

    If the Spectator is right then the new deal is really quite different from the old. Whether it will prove better is harder to say but it has been fast and remarkable work to put this together. The EU has given a lot of ground. Somewhat contrary to the mood music of the last few weeks.

    The EU has successfully removed GB from the Customs Union while keeping Northern Ireland in it and so no longer has to worry about a backstop limiting its ability to hold the UK to the fire in the upcoming FTA negotiations. But the biggest winner of all from this is Leo Varadker. He has played an absolute blinder. All that said, I hope and expect the deal to pass. There is an outside chance that may lead Johnson to start listening to business again rather than the ERG and, whatever happens, it prevents the disaster of a No Deal.

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,237
    Foxy said:

    rcs1000 said:

    There's another Iowa poll out...

    And it's giving exactly the same message as the last two:

    Biden 23%
    Warren 23%
    Buttigieg 16%
    Sanders 13%

    Buttigieg is on the way up, Warren is still rising but but not at a great rate, and Biden and Sanders are slipping.

    Nowhere near that in the other early contests though. He is staking all on Iowa, for example:

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-d/california/
    Look at how opinion polls change in reaction to the results of the early states.
  • Foxy said:

    rcs1000 said:

    There's another Iowa poll out...

    And it's giving exactly the same message as the last two:

    Biden 23%
    Warren 23%
    Buttigieg 16%
    Sanders 13%

    Buttigieg is on the way up, Warren is still rising but but not at a great rate, and Biden and Sanders are slipping.

    Nowhere near that in the other early contests though. He is staking all on Iowa, for example:

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-d/california/
    Does anyone know why it has all gone wrong for Kamala Harris?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,151
    edited October 2019

    HYUFD said:
    That 40% seems kind of low given that it is probably only going to go down as the details of the deal are better understood and the initial relief dissipates.
    40% gives a Tory landslide with the Remain vote split, even 30% likely means Tories most seats again
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,237

    Foxy said:

    rcs1000 said:

    There's another Iowa poll out...

    And it's giving exactly the same message as the last two:

    Biden 23%
    Warren 23%
    Buttigieg 16%
    Sanders 13%

    Buttigieg is on the way up, Warren is still rising but but not at a great rate, and Biden and Sanders are slipping.

    Nowhere near that in the other early contests though. He is staking all on Iowa, for example:

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-d/california/
    Does anyone know why it has all gone wrong for Kamala Harris?
    Who?
  • HYUFD said:
    Its amazing all these people have an opinion on this deal which virtually nobody has read let alone carefully considered the implications.

    I have no real idea about this deal and i am a lot more aware about politics than most.
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:
    That 40% seems kind of low given that it is probably only going to go down as the details of the deal are better understood and the initial relief dissipates.
    40% gives a Tory landslide, even 30% likely means Tories most seats again
    40% is quite low?? that would need over 2/3 of DK to go against. Brexit weariness is increasingly setting in. The government should be hammering that poll out to waverers
  • rcs1000 said:

    There's another Iowa poll out...

    And it's giving exactly the same message as the last two:

    Biden 23%
    Warren 23%
    Buttigieg 16%
    Sanders 13%

    Buttigieg is on the way up, Warren is still rising but but not at a great rate, and Biden and Sanders are slipping.

    Buttigieg will win in Iowa. He's the only smaller candidate who is getting this right. There is no point playing to California or Texas or whatever. The small players will be long gone by then. You propel yourself into the game with an impeccable organisation in Iowa and New Hampshire, and that's exactly what he's doing.

    Being awfully stereotypical about Buttigieg's base, but imagine how charming and complementary his cheerleaders will be about the hosts' canapes at those caucuses. I'm calling it now - he won't win it that night, but will propel himself very much onto the top table and finish the young(ish) pretenders that night.
  • HYUFD said:
    Its amazing all these people have an opinion on this deal which virtually nobody has read let alone carefully considered the implications.

    I have no real idea about this deal and i am a lot more aware about politics than most.
    Spot on
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,798
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:
    That 40% seems kind of low given that it is probably only going to go down as the details of the deal are better understood and the initial relief dissipates.
    40% gives a Tory landslide with the Remain vote split, even 30% likely means Tories most seats again
    If every one of those 40% is a Tory voter then Labour MPs certainly would be nuts to vote for the deal.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:
    That 40% seems kind of low given that it is probably only going to go down as the details of the deal are better understood and the initial relief dissipates.
    40% gives a Tory landslide with the Remain vote split, even 30% likely means Tories most seats again
    What's your view on the general election now?
  • Y0kel said:

    Good evening from the Special Administrative Region of Northern Ireland

    One country, two systems

    Arlene = Carrie Lam?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    I'm so old I remeber the time Theresa May gave a speach pitting the People vs Parliament that was so brilliant that it singlehandedly got her Withdrawal Agreement agreed by parliament.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,729
    rcs1000 said:

    Foxy said:

    rcs1000 said:

    There's another Iowa poll out...

    And it's giving exactly the same message as the last two:

    Biden 23%
    Warren 23%
    Buttigieg 16%
    Sanders 13%

    Buttigieg is on the way up, Warren is still rising but but not at a great rate, and Biden and Sanders are slipping.

    Nowhere near that in the other early contests though. He is staking all on Iowa, for example:

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-d/california/
    Look at how opinion polls change in reaction to the results of the early states.
    Warren is more likely to win in Iowa and gain that momentum.

    Despite his Midwest origins, Mayor Pete gathers most of his support from young white College graduates. I don't think his current odds are long enough to be worth backing.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,237
    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    There's another Iowa poll out...

    And it's giving exactly the same message as the last two:

    Biden 23%
    Warren 23%
    Buttigieg 16%
    Sanders 13%

    Buttigieg is on the way up, Warren is still rising but but not at a great rate, and Biden and Sanders are slipping.

    And Buttigieg’s percentage in S Carolina ?
    In 2016, Guiliani had "the Florida firewall". He ignored New Hampshire and Iowa because he was going to win Florida and top the delegate count when that state voted.

    But because he lost in Iowa and New Hampshire, he flopped in Florida. Early states define the candidates who matter. If Biden loses the first two, do you really think he'll hang on to all that support in South Carolina?.
    Quite probably a large chunk of it.

    Biden, for all his faults, is no Giuliani.
    And Buttigieg is no Trump. :smile:

    Remember also that after null delegates in Iowa and New Hampshire, there will be a large number of candidates exiting the race.

    Now, if Buttigieg wins Iowa, and Warren New Hampshire (which is a reasonable guess), then I would expect that S Carolina will be 40/30/30. (Probably - but not certainly - with Biden winning. My view throughout is that the only reason anyone votes for Biden is becuase they think he's a winner. And once that illusion is shed, why would you vote for him?)

    Post South Carolina, the race goes to Nevada, which is another caucus state where Buttigieg is following Obama's playbook and investing very heavily in on the ground infrastructure.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,698
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:
    That 40% seems kind of low given that it is probably only going to go down as the details of the deal are better understood and the initial relief dissipates.
    40% gives a Tory landslide with the Remain vote split, even 30% likely means Tories most seats again
    It's not a VI poll!
  • This thread has exited the EU.....
  • eggegg Posts: 1,749

    egg said:

    Andrew said:


    That's pretty astonishing. Is he giving up?
    And not bothering with a 2nd ref unless this fails Saturday.....
    Is he tacitly allowing Brexit and going for an election?!
    It will be a four line whip come Friday night. Any Labour MP voting for this deal will lose the whip and their Labour career. What those Labour MPs would say is they haven’t had the guarantees about workers rights and the environment. If you don’t know what is going to happen you haven’t been paying attention the last 12 months. 😁

    It is going to lose by at least 40. Johnson will then put a motion to the house to put the deal to the country v remain. It will pass by about 250. Johnson will then secure extension with EU, at least six months, to achieve this plebiscite. He won’t even bother to try for an election.

    Why do we know all this? The same one word that created the 2016 ref in the first place. Farage. Farage and brexit party insisting from now the only brexit deal is no deal. And what we have learnt from the painful trades to create this deal, Boris government won’t no deal.
    Looks like you have missed Corbyns comment tonight that any labour mp voting for the deal will not lose the whip. I think he has given up
    He didn’t make such a comment. 😁. It’s classic blogosphere myth making from a journalist who apparently got told that by a Labour MP.

    I think you’ll find opposition will be quite competitive come Saturday including Farage And DUP, not least they now have definition what Boris and Cummings regard as taking back control, and as the hours pass its going to be thoroughly probed. 🙂
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,237
    Foxy said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Foxy said:

    rcs1000 said:

    There's another Iowa poll out...

    And it's giving exactly the same message as the last two:

    Biden 23%
    Warren 23%
    Buttigieg 16%
    Sanders 13%

    Buttigieg is on the way up, Warren is still rising but but not at a great rate, and Biden and Sanders are slipping.

    Nowhere near that in the other early contests though. He is staking all on Iowa, for example:

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-d/california/
    Look at how opinion polls change in reaction to the results of the early states.
    Warren is more likely to win in Iowa and gain that momentum.

    Despite his Midwest origins, Mayor Pete gathers most of his support from young white College graduates. I don't think his current odds are long enough to be worth backing.
    Despite being the Chicago Senator, Obama gathers most of his support from young College graduates. He's twenty points behind Clinton both nationally and in Iowa, and if you put money on him at 6-1, you're throwing it away.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Foxy said:

    rcs1000 said:

    There's another Iowa poll out...

    And it's giving exactly the same message as the last two:

    Biden 23%
    Warren 23%
    Buttigieg 16%
    Sanders 13%

    Buttigieg is on the way up, Warren is still rising but but not at a great rate, and Biden and Sanders are slipping.

    Nowhere near that in the other early contests though. He is staking all on Iowa, for example:

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-d/california/
    Does anyone know why it has all gone wrong for Kamala Harris?
    She wasn't very high to begin with and was completely unable to follow up her first debate performance.

    I'm suprised too, I thought she had the goods to go the distance but she simply doesn't excite the Dem base.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    cough - new thread
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    A final vote: Deal or No Deal, as it always should have been.

    You have to big up the extreme Remain MPs and lawyers for managing to convince their followers that it was somehow legitimate to campaign for a second referendum with Remain on the ballot. At times it seemed almost creditable.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    Y0kel said:

    Good evening from the Special Administrative Region of Northern Ireland

    One country, two systems

    Hardy har.

    HYUFD said:
    Its amazing all these people have an opinion on this deal which virtually nobody has read let alone carefully considered the implications.

    I have no real idea about this deal and i am a lot more aware about politics than most.
    I've certainly not read it yet, I'm sure it is riveting.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468

    HYUFD said:
    Its amazing all these people have an opinion on this deal which virtually nobody has read let alone carefully considered the implications.

    I have no real idea about this deal and i am a lot more aware about politics than most.
    Spot on
    It doesn’t include joining EFTA/EEA and that’s all I need to know.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207

    HYUFD said:
    Its amazing all these people have an opinion on this deal which virtually nobody has read let alone carefully considered the implications.

    I have no real idea about this deal and i am a lot more aware about politics than most.
    They just want to leave
  • eggegg Posts: 1,749

    HYUFD said:
    Its amazing all these people have an opinion on this deal which virtually nobody has read let alone carefully considered the implications.

    I have no real idea about this deal and i am a lot more aware about politics than most.
    Spot on
    That would explain the high don’t knows. Unless it’s dont kares anymore
This discussion has been closed.