Much as I rather we Remained, this deal is way better than a No Deal exit so I won't be distraught if it passes.
Double amputation is way better than dying slowly of septicemia, but..
I wonder if the effect of the foul tasting finality of actually leaving for people not invested in Leave is being underestimated (even by those people themselves)?
The problem with Corbyn is that he has no leadership skills or common sense whatsoever. Anybody with common sense would not be listening to Karie Murphy or Seamus Milne. I don’t get the sense that his left wing economic polices are the albatross around his neck, but just rather his general ineptitude. Plus, his attempt at triangulating on Brexit has hugely damaged his brand. For a man that was supposed to stand for a definitive, principled left wing politics he has come to personify all the worse aspects of centrism on Brexit - ambiguity, assuming wrongly that the position in the ‘middle’ is the right one.
Welcome back. I agree, it is Corbyn's ineffectiveness that has killed his popularity more than anything.
If the Spectator is right then the new deal is really quite different from the old. Whether it will prove better is harder to say but it has been fast and remarkable work to put this together. The EU has given a lot of ground. Somewhat contrary to the mood music of the last few weeks.
The mood music was based on the idea that Boris wasn't as shameless as of course he fucking is.
Nah it was based on the inherent superiority and condescension of the EU, the incompetence and mendaciousness of the British government and a slight bizarre desire to see our own country humiliated for having the stupidity to vote leave. It turned out to be total unadulterated crap. Quelle surprise as our French friends would say.
Although this revised deal is better than May's deal for the EU of course.
I confess that’s what I thought but if the Spectator summary is accurate I am not so sure. This is a much harder Brexit with us much less committed to regulatory equivalence and some real compromises on what used to be the sacrosanct integrity of the SM. What we choose to do with that freedom is of course up for grabs but this has the potential to lead to a much less close relationship with the EU than Mays deal.
We've probably all heard this one, but it's a good'un.
"In 1942," he says, "the situation was really tough. The Germans had a very strong air force. I remember, " he continues, "one day I was protecting the bombers and suddenly, out of the clouds, these fokkers appeared.
(At this point, several of the children giggle.)
I looked up, and right above me was one of them. I aimed at him and shot him down. They were swarming. I immediately realized that there was another fokker behind me."
At this instant the girls in the auditorium start to giggle and boys start to laugh. The teacher stands up and says, "I think I should point out that 'Fokker' was the name of the German-Dutch aircraft company"
"That's true," says the pilot, "but these fokkers were flying Messerschmidts."
It's complete balls. The Luftwaffe didn't operate any Fokker types in WW2.
If the Spectator is right then the new deal is really quite different from the old. Whether it will prove better is harder to say but it has been fast and remarkable work to put this together. The EU has given a lot of ground. Somewhat contrary to the mood music of the last few weeks.
The mood music was based on the idea that Boris wasn't as shameless as of course he fucking is.
Nah it was based on the inherent superiority and condescension of the EU, the incompetence and mendaciousness of the British government and a slight bizarre desire to see our own country humiliated for having the stupidity to vote leave. It turned out to be total unadulterated crap. Quelle surprise as our French friends would say.
Although this revised deal is better than May's deal for the EU of course.
I confess that’s what I thought but if the Spectator summary is accurate I am not so sure. This is a much harder Brexit with us much less committed to regulatory equivalence and some real compromises on what used to be the sacrosanct integrity of the SM. What we choose to do with that freedom is of course up for grabs but this has the potential to lead to a much less close relationship with the EU than Mays deal.
If we want a FTA with the EU we'll be signing up to regulatory equivalence imo.
With May's deal we had free access to the CU guaranteed by the backstop
We've probably all heard this one, but it's a good'un.
"In 1942," he says, "the situation was really tough. The Germans had a very strong air force. I remember, " he continues, "one day I was protecting the bombers and suddenly, out of the clouds, these fokkers appeared.
(At this point, several of the children giggle.)
I looked up, and right above me was one of them. I aimed at him and shot him down. They were swarming. I immediately realized that there was another fokker behind me."
At this instant the girls in the auditorium start to giggle and boys start to laugh. The teacher stands up and says, "I think I should point out that 'Fokker' was the name of the German-Dutch aircraft company"
"That's true," says the pilot, "but these fokkers were flying Messerschmidts."
It's complete balls. The Luftwaffe didn't operate any Fokker types in WW2.
Yes, but I don't think it is supposed to be factually accurate, just funny.
We've probably all heard this one, but it's a good'un.
"In 1942," he says, "the situation was really tough. The Germans had a very strong air force. I remember, " he continues, "one day I was protecting the bombers and suddenly, out of the clouds, these fokkers appeared.
(At this point, several of the children giggle.)
I looked up, and right above me was one of them. I aimed at him and shot him down. They were swarming. I immediately realized that there was another fokker behind me."
At this instant the girls in the auditorium start to giggle and boys start to laugh. The teacher stands up and says, "I think I should point out that 'Fokker' was the name of the German-Dutch aircraft company"
"That's true," says the pilot, "but these fokkers were flying Messerschmidts."
It's complete balls. The Luftwaffe didn't operate any Fokker types in WW2.
And not bothering with a 2nd ref unless this fails Saturday..... Is he tacitly allowing Brexit and going for an election?!
It will be a four line whip come Friday night. Any Labour MP voting for this deal will lose the whip and their Labour career. What those Labour MPs would say is they haven’t had the guarantees about workers rights and the environment. If you don’t know what is going to happen you haven’t been paying attention the last 12 months. 😁
It is going to lose by at least 40. Johnson will then put a motion to the house to put the deal to the country v remain. It will pass by about 250. Johnson will then secure extension with EU, at least six months, to achieve this plebiscite. He won’t even bother to try for an election.
Why do we know all this? The same one word that created the 2016 ref in the first place. Farage. Farage and brexit party insisting from now the only brexit deal is no deal. And what we have learnt from the painful trades to create this deal, Boris government won’t no deal.
We've probably all heard this one, but it's a good'un.
"In 1942," he says, "the situation was really tough. The Germans had a very strong air force. I remember, " he continues, "one day I was protecting the bombers and suddenly, out of the clouds, these fokkers appeared.
(At this point, several of the children giggle.)
I looked up, and right above me was one of them. I aimed at him and shot him down. They were swarming. I immediately realized that there was another fokker behind me."
At this instant the girls in the auditorium start to giggle and boys start to laugh. The teacher stands up and says, "I think I should point out that 'Fokker' was the name of the German-Dutch aircraft company"
"That's true," says the pilot, "but these fokkers were flying Messerschmidts."
It's complete balls. The Luftwaffe didn't operate any Fokker types in WW2.
The sum total has some Democrats envisioning something that seemed unlikely only a few weeks ago – a race for the nomination that comes down to Warren or Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) on the left, with an opening for Buttigieg to supplant Biden as the party’s centrist standard-bearer.
If the Spectator is right then the new deal is really quite different from the old. Whether it will prove better is harder to say but it has been fast and remarkable work to put this together. The EU has given a lot of ground. Somewhat contrary to the mood music of the last few weeks.
The mood music was based on the idea that Boris wasn't as shameless as of course he fucking is.
Nah it was based on the inherent superiority and condescension of the EU, the incompetence and mendaciousness of the British government and a slight bizarre desire to see our own country humiliated for having the stupidity to vote leave. It turned out to be total unadulterated crap. Quelle surprise as our French friends would say.
Although this revised deal is better than May's deal for the EU of course.
I confess that’s what I thought but if the Spectator summary is accurate I am not so sure. This is a much harder Brexit with us much less committed to regulatory equivalence and some real compromises on what used to be the sacrosanct integrity of the SM. What we choose to do with that freedom is of course up for grabs but this has the potential to lead to a much less close relationship with the EU than Mays deal.
If we want a FTA with the EU we'll be signing up to regulatory equivalence imo.
With May's deal we had free access to the CU guaranteed by the backstop
True and softies like me quite liked that but I can see why the EU did too. This is much more appealing to the sane wing of the ERG if there is such a thing.
If the Spectator is right then the new deal is really quite different from the old. Whether it will prove better is harder to say but it has been fast and remarkable work to put this together. The EU has given a lot of ground. Somewhat contrary to the mood music of the last few weeks.
Which of the EU’s red lines have they given in on?
Looking at the numbers, the deal is likely to pass on the votes of a few Labour MPs.
Which will be manna from heaven for Jo Swinson at the subsequent GE. Assuming, that is, that Norman Lamb doesn’t blunt that line of attack by voting for the deal.
Peston says 18 to 19 Tory rebels will vote for the deal .
I can’t see Bebb, Grieve or Greening voting for this . So at most 18 .
Interesting however that Letwin will try and amend the Benn Act to make sure that all the legislation has to pass before that’s nullified .
That’s a good move and means the EU can start ratifying with less worries about a last minute drama .
Boles, Gyimah ?
Boles "Securing a compromise Brexit deal is a major negotiating achievement for Boris Johnson. I congratulate him. I seem to remember him saying the Benn Act would stop the EU making the necessary concessions. He was wrong about that. In fact it helped bring Brexiteers to their senses."
Remainers and Faragists are really trying to spin things hard but I don't see any of their arguments really having punch. When I was arguing for May's deal, it was hard to defend the lack of consent in the backstop. And while I want the UK in the Customs Union, I could see how the inability to sign our own trade deals was powerful to Leavers.
Now though, there is not much the opponents have. They are trying to push this "carving up the UK" line but it doesn't stick. NI has always been constitutionally in the UK but a more mixed status pratically: British but with the right to Irish passports, represented at Westminster but with her own law, representative democracy but with extra double majority requirements for Irish nationalists. This deal continues that grand tradition: under UK law but with regulatory exceptions for agrifood and industrial goods, checks on goods but not personal possessions, part of UK trade deals but with access to the single market. There is no sizable shift, even while Remainers try to play it up, because it is the only line they have.
There will be a border down the Irish Sea. As explained by that arch remainer Nigel Farage today in Brussels.
That is a bold move for the Conservative and Unionist Party.
What party ???
I don't think I've ever seen that party on any ballot paper I've had.
People concerned about the Unionist aspect should have taken note of that.
The party that Jacob Rees Mogg is a member of. The same party that outlawed the creation of a border down the Irish Sea.
That party.
This Jacob Rees-Mogg, the Conservative candidate in North-East Somerset not the Conservative and Unionist:
Looking at the numbers, the deal is likely to pass on the votes of a few Labour MPs.
Which will be manna from heaven for Jo Swinson at the subsequent GE. Assuming, that is, that Norman Lamb doesn’t blunt that line of attack by voting for the deal.
In which case Leavers will move to the Tories (or Brexit Party if they are ultra hardline), Remainers will move to the LDs and Corbyn Labour will get squeezed
We've probably all heard this one, but it's a good'un.
"In 1942," he says, "the situation was really tough. The Germans had a very strong air force. I remember, " he continues, "one day I was protecting the bombers and suddenly, out of the clouds, these fokkers appeared.
(At this point, several of the children giggle.)
I looked up, and right above me was one of them. I aimed at him and shot him down. They were swarming. I immediately realized that there was another fokker behind me."
At this instant the girls in the auditorium start to giggle and boys start to laugh. The teacher stands up and says, "I think I should point out that 'Fokker' was the name of the German-Dutch aircraft company"
"That's true," says the pilot, "but these fokkers were flying Messerschmidts."
It's complete balls. The Luftwaffe didn't operate any Fokker types in WW2.
No fokker was calling a fw190 by it's full title when it was bouncing them.
If the Spectator is right then the new deal is really quite different from the old. Whether it will prove better is harder to say but it has been fast and remarkable work to put this together. The EU has given a lot of ground. Somewhat contrary to the mood music of the last few weeks.
Which of the EU’s red lines have they given in on?
None , it’s also a huge win for Varadkar . The EU never wanted a UK wide customs union.
And it's giving exactly the same message as the last two:
Biden 23% Warren 23% Buttigieg 16% Sanders 13%
Buttigieg is on the way up, Warren is still rising but but not at a great rate, and Biden and Sanders are slipping.
And Buttigieg’s percentage in S Carolina ?
In 2016, Guiliani had "the Florida firewall". He ignored New Hampshire and Iowa because he was going to win Florida and top the delegate count when that state voted.
But because he lost in Iowa and New Hampshire, he flopped in Florida. Early states define the candidates who matter. If Biden loses the first two, do you really think he'll hang on to all that support in South Carolina?
Look at the churn in opinion polls post the Iowa debates in 2004, 2008 and 2016. It's massive. We have to expect that this time around.
Cracking article, Cyclefree. I can’t disagree with it, as it confirms my impressions (except in greater detail and far more clearly than I might have managed to set out).
Johnson will have pulled off a considerable con trick should he manage to sell the deal to all who rejected May’s version out of hand. But just as I would have reluctantly accepted May’s deal, I would accept this one too, if the alternative is no deal.
The genius of Boris Johnson....his narcissism and sense of entitlement has driven the UK these last 3 years or so..The UK has become the BoJo Brexit show.....and now with his Deal....and a subsequent GE victory.....we'll have him for a further 5 years....
And not bothering with a 2nd ref unless this fails Saturday..... Is he tacitly allowing Brexit and going for an election?!
It will be a four line whip come Friday night. Any Labour MP voting for this deal will lose the whip and their Labour career. What those Labour MPs would say is they haven’t had the guarantees about workers rights and the environment. If you don’t know what is going to happen you haven’t been paying attention the last 12 months. 😁
It is going to lose by at least 40. Johnson will then put a motion to the house to put the deal to the country v remain. It will pass by about 250. Johnson will then secure extension with EU, at least six months, to achieve this plebiscite. He won’t even bother to try for an election.
Why do we know all this? The same one word that created the 2016 ref in the first place. Farage. Farage and brexit party insisting from now the only brexit deal is no deal. And what we have learnt from the painful trades to create this deal, Boris government won’t no deal.
Looks like you have missed Corbyns comment tonight that any labour mp voting for the deal will not lose the whip. I think he has given up
And it's giving exactly the same message as the last two:
Biden 23% Warren 23% Buttigieg 16% Sanders 13%
Buttigieg is on the way up, Warren is still rising but but not at a great rate, and Biden and Sanders are slipping.
Ah rebe that far off time when Biden was polling at 50% and some on here were proclaiming it was completely 100% definetly going to be Biden and we were idiots for suggesting it would be anyone else.
Looking at the numbers, the deal is likely to pass on the votes of a few Labour MPs.
Which will be manna from heaven for Jo Swinson at the subsequent GE. Assuming, that is, that Norman Lamb doesn’t blunt that line of attack by voting for the deal.
In which case Leavers will move to the Tories (or Brexit Party if they are ultra hardline), Remainers will move to the LDs and Corbyn Labour will get squeezed
Why would a Socialist or Social Democratic Leaver vote Tory?
And it's giving exactly the same message as the last two:
Biden 23% Warren 23% Buttigieg 16% Sanders 13%
Buttigieg is on the way up, Warren is still rising but but not at a great rate, and Biden and Sanders are slipping.
Ah rebe that far off time when Biden was polling at 50% and some on here were proclaiming it was completely 100% definetly going to be Biden and we were idiots for suggesting it would be anyone else.
If wonder what hyufenned to them?
He's now saying that when it's Warren and Trump wins, we'll all be sorry.
When actually, we'll all be significantly richer because we bet against the dementure candidate.
And it's giving exactly the same message as the last two:
Biden 23% Warren 23% Buttigieg 16% Sanders 13%
Buttigieg is on the way up, Warren is still rising but but not at a great rate, and Biden and Sanders are slipping.
And Buttigieg’s percentage in S Carolina ?
In 2016, Guiliani had "the Florida firewall". He ignored New Hampshire and Iowa because he was going to win Florida and top the delegate count when that state voted.
But because he lost in Iowa and New Hampshire, he flopped in Florida. Early states define the candidates who matter. If Biden loses the first two, do you really think he'll hang on to all that support in South Carolina?.
Quite probably a large chunk of it.
Biden, for all his faults, is no Giuliani. And Buttigieg is no Trump.
The genius of Boris Johnson....his narcissism and sense of entitlement has driven the UK these last 3 years or so..The UK has become the BoJo Brexit show.....and now with his Deal....and a subsequent GE victory.....we'll have him for a further 5 years....
And if that GE victory turns into a landslide it could be 10 years!
That 40% seems kind of low given that it is probably only going to go down as the details of the deal are better understood and the initial relief dissipates.
Looking at the numbers, the deal is likely to pass on the votes of a few Labour MPs.
Which will be manna from heaven for Jo Swinson at the subsequent GE. Assuming, that is, that Norman Lamb doesn’t blunt that line of attack by voting for the deal.
In which case Leavers will move to the Tories (or Brexit Party if they are ultra hardline), Remainers will move to the LDs and Corbyn Labour will get squeezed
You are not making a good case for Labour to go soft on the whipping. 😃
If the Spectator is right then the new deal is really quite different from the old. Whether it will prove better is harder to say but it has been fast and remarkable work to put this together. The EU has given a lot of ground. Somewhat contrary to the mood music of the last few weeks.
The EU has successfully removed GB from the Customs Union while keeping Northern Ireland in it and so no longer has to worry about a backstop limiting its ability to hold the UK to the fire in the upcoming FTA negotiations. But the biggest winner of all from this is Leo Varadker. He has played an absolute blinder. All that said, I hope and expect the deal to pass. There is an outside chance that may lead Johnson to start listening to business again rather than the ERG and, whatever happens, it prevents the disaster of a No Deal.
That 40% seems kind of low given that it is probably only going to go down as the details of the deal are better understood and the initial relief dissipates.
40% gives a Tory landslide with the Remain vote split, even 30% likely means Tories most seats again
That 40% seems kind of low given that it is probably only going to go down as the details of the deal are better understood and the initial relief dissipates.
40% gives a Tory landslide, even 30% likely means Tories most seats again
40% is quite low?? that would need over 2/3 of DK to go against. Brexit weariness is increasingly setting in. The government should be hammering that poll out to waverers
And it's giving exactly the same message as the last two:
Biden 23% Warren 23% Buttigieg 16% Sanders 13%
Buttigieg is on the way up, Warren is still rising but but not at a great rate, and Biden and Sanders are slipping.
Buttigieg will win in Iowa. He's the only smaller candidate who is getting this right. There is no point playing to California or Texas or whatever. The small players will be long gone by then. You propel yourself into the game with an impeccable organisation in Iowa and New Hampshire, and that's exactly what he's doing.
Being awfully stereotypical about Buttigieg's base, but imagine how charming and complementary his cheerleaders will be about the hosts' canapes at those caucuses. I'm calling it now - he won't win it that night, but will propel himself very much onto the top table and finish the young(ish) pretenders that night.
That 40% seems kind of low given that it is probably only going to go down as the details of the deal are better understood and the initial relief dissipates.
40% gives a Tory landslide with the Remain vote split, even 30% likely means Tories most seats again
If every one of those 40% is a Tory voter then Labour MPs certainly would be nuts to vote for the deal.
That 40% seems kind of low given that it is probably only going to go down as the details of the deal are better understood and the initial relief dissipates.
40% gives a Tory landslide with the Remain vote split, even 30% likely means Tories most seats again
I'm so old I remeber the time Theresa May gave a speach pitting the People vs Parliament that was so brilliant that it singlehandedly got her Withdrawal Agreement agreed by parliament.
Look at how opinion polls change in reaction to the results of the early states.
Warren is more likely to win in Iowa and gain that momentum.
Despite his Midwest origins, Mayor Pete gathers most of his support from young white College graduates. I don't think his current odds are long enough to be worth backing.
And it's giving exactly the same message as the last two:
Biden 23% Warren 23% Buttigieg 16% Sanders 13%
Buttigieg is on the way up, Warren is still rising but but not at a great rate, and Biden and Sanders are slipping.
And Buttigieg’s percentage in S Carolina ?
In 2016, Guiliani had "the Florida firewall". He ignored New Hampshire and Iowa because he was going to win Florida and top the delegate count when that state voted.
But because he lost in Iowa and New Hampshire, he flopped in Florida. Early states define the candidates who matter. If Biden loses the first two, do you really think he'll hang on to all that support in South Carolina?.
Quite probably a large chunk of it.
Biden, for all his faults, is no Giuliani. And Buttigieg is no Trump.
Remember also that after null delegates in Iowa and New Hampshire, there will be a large number of candidates exiting the race.
Now, if Buttigieg wins Iowa, and Warren New Hampshire (which is a reasonable guess), then I would expect that S Carolina will be 40/30/30. (Probably - but not certainly - with Biden winning. My view throughout is that the only reason anyone votes for Biden is becuase they think he's a winner. And once that illusion is shed, why would you vote for him?)
Post South Carolina, the race goes to Nevada, which is another caucus state where Buttigieg is following Obama's playbook and investing very heavily in on the ground infrastructure.
That 40% seems kind of low given that it is probably only going to go down as the details of the deal are better understood and the initial relief dissipates.
40% gives a Tory landslide with the Remain vote split, even 30% likely means Tories most seats again
And not bothering with a 2nd ref unless this fails Saturday..... Is he tacitly allowing Brexit and going for an election?!
It will be a four line whip come Friday night. Any Labour MP voting for this deal will lose the whip and their Labour career. What those Labour MPs would say is they haven’t had the guarantees about workers rights and the environment. If you don’t know what is going to happen you haven’t been paying attention the last 12 months. 😁
It is going to lose by at least 40. Johnson will then put a motion to the house to put the deal to the country v remain. It will pass by about 250. Johnson will then secure extension with EU, at least six months, to achieve this plebiscite. He won’t even bother to try for an election.
Why do we know all this? The same one word that created the 2016 ref in the first place. Farage. Farage and brexit party insisting from now the only brexit deal is no deal. And what we have learnt from the painful trades to create this deal, Boris government won’t no deal.
Looks like you have missed Corbyns comment tonight that any labour mp voting for the deal will not lose the whip. I think he has given up
He didn’t make such a comment. 😁. It’s classic blogosphere myth making from a journalist who apparently got told that by a Labour MP.
I think you’ll find opposition will be quite competitive come Saturday including Farage And DUP, not least they now have definition what Boris and Cummings regard as taking back control, and as the hours pass its going to be thoroughly probed. 🙂
Look at how opinion polls change in reaction to the results of the early states.
Warren is more likely to win in Iowa and gain that momentum.
Despite his Midwest origins, Mayor Pete gathers most of his support from young white College graduates. I don't think his current odds are long enough to be worth backing.
Despite being the Chicago Senator, Obama gathers most of his support from young College graduates. He's twenty points behind Clinton both nationally and in Iowa, and if you put money on him at 6-1, you're throwing it away.
A final vote: Deal or No Deal, as it always should have been.
You have to big up the extreme Remain MPs and lawyers for managing to convince their followers that it was somehow legitimate to campaign for a second referendum with Remain on the ballot. At times it seemed almost creditable.
Comments
If Boris gets his deal through the HoC and we leave on 31 Oct, does anything actually change at that point or are we into a 'no change' transition?
I wonder if the effect of the foul tasting finality of actually leaving for people not invested in Leave is being underestimated (even by those people themselves)?
https://twitter.com/iainmartin1/status/1184941468953333765
The SNP are quite happy to have a border. That's kind of the point.
With May's deal we had free access to the CU guaranteed by the backstop
I can’t see Bebb, Grieve or Greening voting for this . So at most 18 .
Interesting however that Letwin will try and amend the Benn Act to make sure that all the legislation has to pass before that’s nullified .
That’s a good move and means the EU can start ratifying with less worries about a last minute drama .
I think he might, although the court case tomorrow might provide an unfortunate spanner or two.
There's still the small matter of his QS to pass on Monday or Tuesday?
And it's giving exactly the same message as the last two:
Biden 23%
Warren 23%
Buttigieg 16%
Sanders 13%
Buttigieg is on the way up, Warren is still rising but but not at a great rate, and Biden and Sanders are slipping.
It is going to lose by at least 40. Johnson will then put a motion to the house to put the deal to the country v remain. It will pass by about 250. Johnson will then secure extension with EU, at least six months, to achieve this plebiscite. He won’t even bother to try for an election.
Why do we know all this? The same one word that created the 2016 ref in the first place. Farage. Farage and brexit party insisting from now the only brexit deal is no deal. And what we have learnt from the painful trades to create this deal, Boris government won’t no deal.
One country, two systems
Which will be manna from heaven for Jo Swinson at the subsequent GE. Assuming, that is, that Norman Lamb doesn’t blunt that line of attack by voting for the deal.
Not than I am being selfish about this
Sounds like a vote in favour
Interested to hear Ken Clarke response and one to watch on saturday
But because he lost in Iowa and New Hampshire, he flopped in Florida. Early states define the candidates who matter. If Biden loses the first two, do you really think he'll hang on to all that support in South Carolina?
Look at the churn in opinion polls post the Iowa debates in 2004, 2008 and 2016. It's massive. We have to expect that this time around.
I can’t disagree with it, as it confirms my impressions (except in greater detail and far more clearly than I might have managed to set out).
Johnson will have pulled off a considerable con trick should he manage to sell the deal to all who rejected May’s version out of hand. But just as I would have reluctantly accepted May’s deal, I would accept this one too, if the alternative is no deal.
Even if I do regard it with a degree of contempt.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-d/california/
If wonder what hyufenned to them?
It's a way off yet... we might have left the EU and had a GE before Iowa!
When actually, we'll all be significantly richer because we bet against the dementure candidate.
Biden, for all his faults, is no Giuliani.
And Buttigieg is no Trump.
I have no real idea about this deal and i am a lot more aware about politics than most.
Being awfully stereotypical about Buttigieg's base, but imagine how charming and complementary his cheerleaders will be about the hosts' canapes at those caucuses. I'm calling it now - he won't win it that night, but will propel himself very much onto the top table and finish the young(ish) pretenders that night.
Despite his Midwest origins, Mayor Pete gathers most of his support from young white College graduates. I don't think his current odds are long enough to be worth backing.
Now, if Buttigieg wins Iowa, and Warren New Hampshire (which is a reasonable guess), then I would expect that S Carolina will be 40/30/30. (Probably - but not certainly - with Biden winning. My view throughout is that the only reason anyone votes for Biden is becuase they think he's a winner. And once that illusion is shed, why would you vote for him?)
Post South Carolina, the race goes to Nevada, which is another caucus state where Buttigieg is following Obama's playbook and investing very heavily in on the ground infrastructure.
I think you’ll find opposition will be quite competitive come Saturday including Farage And DUP, not least they now have definition what Boris and Cummings regard as taking back control, and as the hours pass its going to be thoroughly probed. 🙂
I'm suprised too, I thought she had the goods to go the distance but she simply doesn't excite the Dem base.
You have to big up the extreme Remain MPs and lawyers for managing to convince their followers that it was somehow legitimate to campaign for a second referendum with Remain on the ballot. At times it seemed almost creditable.