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  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786

    Andrew said:
    Omara wont attend so one for the tie
    The indies I presume are Mann, woodcock and elphicke? He has a chance with Austin, Lewis, lloyd, field and with norman lamb
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,152
    Andrew said:
    That looks doable to me.

    Deal Majority between 5-10 in the end?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,850
    They can only invest 2 Peers at a time IIRC - good thing Mann has been gotten to yet!
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Her constituency voted Remain anyway, 2/3 of MPs have Leave voting seats
    You have said before a Tory majority would be needed to pass a deal - do you still think that is the case, or do you think it will pass, and if so how many Lab votes will it take?
    It would take 20 to 30 Labour MPs which is possible if the alternative is No Deal but not if the alternative is extension.

    In the unlikely event the EU agreed further extension and France does not veto then of course we are into all out war from next week with the diehard Remainers with Boris sabotaging extension at every turn with full support from Tories and Leavers
    Didn’t you declare war on the diehard remainers three or four times this year already?
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    I will be interested to see what Antoinette Sandbach does . I had her down as a yes to the deal even though she’d like a confirmatory referendum .

  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207

    nico67 said:

    I think the key players are Labour MPs like Lisa Nandy . If she says yes then I think the deal is likely to go through as that suggests there would be a decent amount of MPs willing to do the same .

    I cannot see Nandy voting for it. She still has a future.

    If she wants to stay with the party being investigated for racism
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,242
    edited October 2019
    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    In one week Boris Johnson has done more for the cause of Irish reunificaiton than Jeremy Corbyn, John McDonnell and the IRA managed in 40 years. He should get his own mural!

    Completely wrong, Boris has actually got a Deal that avoids the hard border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland which would have been most likely to see Northern Irish voters vote for a united Ireland

    And that, of course, is why the DUP is so keen on it!

    Er,

    Soft or no border with RoI and a lot of congruence with EU: check.

    Hardish border with GB: check.

    Sounds a lot like a not very baby but actially quite grown-up step towards reunification?

    Yes, I was being ironic! Varadker has layed an absolute d, crucially, in the former Conservative and Unionist Party.

    Nope, a hard border was the best chance for Irish unity, Boris has avoided that and Northern Ireland will still stay in the same Customs area as GB
    No. A hard border might have reignited the Troubles although such an idea is moot as no PM could have overseen one.

    Meanwhile to align NI and the RoI while detaching them, together, regulatorily from the mainland is encouraging unification.

    I am not hugely surprised that you can't see this but I am happy to keep pointing it out to you.
    NI and the RoI are already aligned in terms of a ity it has now
    The deal has just explicitly separated NI and RoI regulatorily from Great Britain. The email that you and I received today made an explicit separation between the mainland and Northern Ireland. Holistically the island of Ireland is more aligned.

    That is a nationalist's wet dream.

    I know you have just been there but you weren't in the right places asking the right people the right questions to gain an understanding of the issue. But the North Antrim coast I agree is a fantastic place. Bushmills is also a great place to visit.
    The Deal just ensures there continues to be no border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland while Northern Ireland remains in the UK customs area.

    A nationalist's wet dream would have been a hard border in Ireland making a vote for Irish unification more likely.

    North Antrim is a great place and staunchly loyalist
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,644
    DougSeal said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Her constituency voted Remain anyway, 2/3 of MPs have Leave voting seats
    You have said before a Tory majority would be needed to pass a deal - do you still think that is the case, or do you think it will pass, and if so how many Lab votes will it take?
    It would take 20 to 30 Labour MPs which is possible if the alternative is No Deal but not if the alternative is extension.

    In the unlikely event the EU agreed further extension and France does not veto then of course we are into all out war from next week with the diehard Remainers with Boris sabotaging extension at every turn with full support from Tories and Leavers
    Didn’t you declare war on the diehard remainers three or four times this year already?
    Plus Spain who are also remaining in the European Union.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,242
    edited October 2019
    DougSeal said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Her constituency voted Remain anyway, 2/3 of MPs have Leave voting seats
    You have said before a Tory majority would be needed to pass a deal - do you still think that is the case, or do you think it will pass, and if so how many Lab votes will it take?
    It would take 20 to 30 Labour MPs which is possible if the alternative is No Deal but not if the alternative is extension.

    In the unlikely event the EU agreed further extension and France does not veto then of course we are into all out war from next week with the diehard Remainers with Boris sabotaging extension at every turn with full support from Tories and Leavers
    Didn’t you declare war on the diehard remainers three or four times this year already?
    We have not reached October 31st yet, only if we are still in the EU then does all out war really begin
  • DougSeal said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Her constituency voted Remain anyway, 2/3 of MPs have Leave voting seats
    You have said before a Tory majority would be needed to pass a deal - do you still think that is the case, or do you think it will pass, and if so how many Lab votes will it take?
    It would take 20 to 30 Labour MPs which is possible if the alternative is No Deal but not if the alternative is extension.

    In the unlikely event the EU agreed further extension and France does not veto then of course we are into all out war from next week with the diehard Remainers with Boris sabotaging extension at every turn with full support from Tories and Leavers
    Didn’t you declare war on the diehard remainers three or four times this year already?
    I think he's now thinking more in terms of a pogrom.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,850
    edited October 2019

    Andrew said:
    Omara wont attend so one for the tie
    The indies I presume are Mann, woodcock and elphicke? He has a chance with Austin, Lewis, lloyd, field and with norman lamb
    Lloyd counts as an Indy - Austin, Field and Lloyd are the three who have voted for it each time (though I don't think all were Indy at MV1), so if Mann is there as Indy is it predicting 1 less of those three? Elphicke has the whip back.

    There's always Williamson!
  • ydoethur said:

    Zephyr said:

    They opened it changed it to add the line British Prime minister picks up the DUP and throws them under a bus.

    Go on, say that’s not true

    I’ll say it’s not true.

    What they’ve done is taken it back to the deal they put forward as their best case scenario in 2017, before May extracted several important concessions.

    And yet the Brexiteers have not looked at it closely enough to see it. Nor do they understand that this means that the EU will no longer be interested in negotiating a free trade deal unless we stay in CAP, CFP, etc because they now have all the leverage they need to walk away, instead of us ending up half in, half out by default.

    I bet Barnier can’t believe his luck.

    Admittedly, one bright spot is that the European Parliament will probably raise no objections whereas I was always nervous somebody with half a brain would spot what the EU had given away before.
    You've hit the nail on the head there. The removal of GB from the backstop and putting NI into a frontstop radically rebalances the FTA negotiations in the EU's favour. Not that Boris cares.
  • ZephyrZephyr Posts: 438

    Zephyr said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    In one week Boris Johnson has done more for the cause of Irish reunificaiton than Jeremy Corbyn, John McDonnell and the IRA managed in 40 years. He should get his own mural!

    Completely wrong, Boris has actually got a Deal that avoids the hard border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland which would have been most likely to see Northern Irish voters vote for a united Ireland

    And that, of course, is why the DUP is so keen on it!

    I

    Don't ever change!

    Isn’t this all just clearing the path for Boris’ favoured option of no deal?

    I doubt it. Johnson proved my wrong. I genuinely did not see him throwing the DUP under a train so easily. My crucial mistake was to believe him when he talked of “our precious Union”. More fool me!!

    He just can’t win can he?!

    He has won, hasn’t he?

    I mean with you! You’ve been saying for months that, of course, Johnson, after not winning the leadership after his violent argument with his girlfriend, and through the prism of everything he does in life being viewed by what a terrible person he is, is leading us, of course, to no deal, and all the terrible Tory things that go with it.

    So he gets a deal, and those forecasts are down the memory hole with hands not held up as a new crime is committed!! 🤣
    Can you not see the ground-breaking change from yesterday? Boris has now nailed himself to this deal. He had it all in his grasp until he revealed his hand. He’s finished. Brexit almost finished.

    EU opened WA and changed it when they had a vain and panicking UK government surrendering. They opened it changed it to add the surrenders, esp the line British Prime minister must pick up the DUP and throw them under a bus.

    This deal the EU will junk the moment another government offers all U.K. in the EU CU.

    Any idea that Boris is a winner is complete fantasy.
    Lets see what the voters think shall we
    Yes. Let’s 😀 But the Boris deal to the country v remain comes before the GE.

    The real killer fact for the history books is the reason Boris government surrendered to get a deal.

    They weren’t prepared to follow through the no deal bluster.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    nico67 said:

    I will be interested to see what Antoinette Sandbach does . I had her down as a yes to the deal even though she’d like a confirmatory referendum .

    Yes if Boris leans on her constituency party to readopt her
  • HYUFD said:

    DougSeal said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Her constituency voted Remain anyway, 2/3 of MPs have Leave voting seats
    You have said before a Tory majority would be needed to pass a deal - do you still think that is the case, or do you think it will pass, and if so how many Lab votes will it take?
    It would take 20 to 30 Labour MPs which is possible if the alternative is No Deal but not if the alternative is extension.

    In the unlikely event the EU agreed further extension and France does not veto then of course we are into all out war from next week with the diehard Remainers with Boris sabotaging extension at every turn with full support from Tories and Leavers
    Didn’t you declare war on the diehard remainers three or four times this year already?
    We have not reached October 31st yet, only if we are still in the EU then does all out war really begin
    You are in serious danger of having a mental breakdown. Calm down
  • DougSeal said:



    Stop insulting people’s intelligence so frequently. People can have different interpretations of the same facts. You and I are on differing sides of this debate but both would have supported EEA/EFTA membership.

    I respond in kind. There are plenty of posters on here who I deeply disagree with but who it's usually possible to have a reasoned debate with. There are some who make no attempt to engage in debate and simply make snide or dishonest comments. I tailor my responses to their comments.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,753
    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Her constituency voted Remain anyway, 2/3 of MPs have Leave voting seats
    You have said before a Tory majority would be needed to pass a deal - do you still think that is the case, or do you think it will pass, and if so how many Lab votes will it take?
    It would take 20 to 30 Labour MPs which is possible if the alternative is No Deal but not if the alternative is extension.

    In the unlikely event the EU agreed further extension and France does not veto then of course we are into all out war from next week with the diehard Remainers with Boris sabotaging extension at every turn with full support from Tories and Leavers
    You're not going to war with anyone.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154
    HYUFD said:

    DougSeal said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Her constituency voted Remain anyway, 2/3 of MPs have Leave voting seats
    You have said before a Tory majority would be needed to pass a deal - do you still think that is the case, or do you think it will pass, and if so how many Lab votes will it take?
    It would take 20 to 30 Labour MPs which is possible if the alternative is No Deal but not if the alternative is extension.

    In the unlikely event the EU agreed further extension and France does not veto then of course we are into all out war from next week with the diehard Remainers with Boris sabotaging extension at every turn with full support from Tories and Leavers
    Didn’t you declare war on the diehard remainers three or four times this year already?
    We have not reached October 31st yet, only if we are still in the EU then does all out war really begin
    Which side will the Spanish be on?
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    kle4 said:

    Andrew said:
    Omara wont attend so one for the tie
    The indies I presume are Mann, woodcock and elphicke? He has a chance with Austin, Lewis, lloyd, field and with norman lamb
    Lloyd counts as an Indy - Austin, Field and Lloyd are the three who have voted for it each time (though I don't think all were Indy at MV1), so if Mann is there as Indy is it predicting 1 less of those three? Elphicke has the whip back.

    There's always Williamson!
    Elphicke is under suspension of the whip till the result of his court case this month, hes an indy.
    Kelvin Hopkins may well abstain
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541

    DougSeal said:



    Stop insulting people’s intelligence so frequently. People can have different interpretations of the same facts. You and I are on differing sides of this debate but both would have supported EEA/EFTA membership.

    I respond in kind. There are plenty of posters on here who I deeply disagree with but who it's usually possible to have a reasoned debate with. There are some who make no attempt to engage in debate and simply make snide or dishonest comments. I tailor my responses to their comments.
    You could have fooled me
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    National Labour to the rescue!
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,817
    Ede and Ravenscroft are going to have a bumper year?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,242
    Great, Boris could then get his Deal through and gets the bonus of starting a Labour civil war too!
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,639
    isam said:

    Carnyx said:

    isam said:

    Zephyr said:

    isam said:

    HYUFD said:
    The tactic seems to be to point at Boris and say he’s given up everything, and the EU nothing

    Bitter crumbs of comfort taste better than humble pie
    All credit to Boris. He’s played a blinder, the EU did what they said they wouldn’t do and open up the WA and change it. This was all down to the strong and brilliant and charismatic negotiation

    They opened it up and changed it when they had a vain and panicking UK government surrendering. They opened it changed it to add the line British Prime minister picks up the DUP and throws them under a bus.

    Go on, say that’s not true

    Cummings. LOL he didn’t wargame this, they’ll freewheeling hoping something comes up to save them. They were so desperate for a deal to avoid asking for extension, they sold the union out.

    A surrender deal, born to vanity and weakness
    (R)
    What does (R) mean, please? Just out of interest.
    It was the symbol to show a programme was a repeat in the old tv listings.
    Thank you - would never have guessed!
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502

    nico67 said:

    I will be interested to see what Antoinette Sandbach does . I had her down as a yes to the deal even though she’d like a confirmatory referendum .

    Yes if Boris leans on her constituency party to readopt her
    I like her . I wouldn’t begrudge her getting back the whip .

    I think it’s unfair of people to expect Tories whose sole initial concern was to avoid no deal to suddenly change their tune .

    I only expect 3 of the 21 Tory rebels to vote against the deal .
  • DougSeal said:

    DougSeal said:



    Stop insulting people’s intelligence so frequently. People can have different interpretations of the same facts. You and I are on differing sides of this debate but both would have supported EEA/EFTA membership.

    I respond in kind. There are plenty of posters on here who I deeply disagree with but who it's usually possible to have a reasoned debate with. There are some who make no attempt to engage in debate and simply make snide or dishonest comments. I tailor my responses to their comments.
    You could have fooled me
    Probably because you haven't been paying attention.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483

    nichomar said:



    You have done nothing to make this easier, I was promised EEA/EFTA by my tory MPMarcus Fysh before the referendum and now he is ERG why should I have any respect for any of the leavers now?

    I have done everything I can to make it easier. I supported an EFTA deal since long before anyone ever dreamed of a referendum and have not moved from that wish at all since then. But we don't always get everything we want and unlike you I have been willing to compromise. I will take any deal that gets us out of the EU. But I also said on here many times before the vote that if we lost I would accept that. Unfortunately you are not enough of an adult to do the same.

    You might have but who else has, 90% of remainers would have accepted EFTA but that’s not where we are at. My bloody MP promised me EFTA/EEA and has done nothing to deliver that promise and done his best to achieve the exact opposite. I really do not understand the obsession with getting out of the EU. I never will, as far as I am concerned it was an excellent arrangement that had no down sides that could of not have been mitigated by our own governments taking the right financial and investment decisions and using the immigration brakes that were always available.

    I have lost, I don’t need to be happy about it, I don’t need to agree with it it a shit deal for the UK but it’s obvious that I have to suck it and get on with it. I just leave one thought when we get to December 2020 and there is no FTA and you face no deal or no deal what happens?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,401
    Floater said:

    nico67 said:

    I think the key players are Labour MPs like Lisa Nandy . If she says yes then I think the deal is likely to go through as that suggests there would be a decent amount of MPs willing to do the same .

    I cannot see Nandy voting for it. She still has a future.

    If she wants to stay with the party being investigated for racism
    And bankrupt. Financially as well as morally.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,242

    HYUFD said:

    DougSeal said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Her constituency voted Remain anyway, 2/3 of MPs have Leave voting seats
    You have said before a Tory majority would be needed to pass a deal - do you still think that is the case, or do you think it will pass, and if so how many Lab votes will it take?
    It would take 20 to 30 Labour MPs which is possible if the alternative is No Deal but not if the alternative is extension.

    In the unlikely event the EU agreed further extension and France does not veto then of course we are into all out war from next week with the diehard Remainers with Boris sabotaging extension at every turn with full support from Tories and Leavers
    Didn’t you declare war on the diehard remainers three or four times this year already?
    We have not reached October 31st yet, only if we are still in the EU then does all out war really begin
    You are in serious danger of having a mental breakdown. Calm down
    Those wanting to respect the Leave vote have had 7 months of biting their tongues, they will not tolerate their vote being denied again
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,850

    kle4 said:

    Andrew said:
    Omara wont attend so one for the tie
    The indies I presume are Mann, woodcock and elphicke? He has a chance with Austin, Lewis, lloyd, field and with norman lamb
    Lloyd counts as an Indy - Austin, Field and Lloyd are the three who have voted for it each time (though I don't think all were Indy at MV1), so if Mann is there as Indy is it predicting 1 less of those three? Elphicke has the whip back.

    There's always Williamson!
    Elphicke is under suspension of the whip till the result of his court case this month, hes an indy.
    Kelvin Hopkins may well abstain
    I see I missed his second suspension of the whip.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,753
    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    In one week Boris Johnson has done more for the cause of Irish reunificaiton than Jeremy Corbyn, John McDonnell and the IRA managed in 40 years. He should get his own mural!

    Completern Irish voters vote for a united Ireland

    And that, of course, is why the DUP is so keen on it!

    Er,

    Soft or no border with RoI and a lot of congruence with EU: check.

    Hardish border with GB: check.

    Sounds a lot like a not very baby but actially quite grown-up step towards reunification?

    Yes, I was being ironic! Varadker has layed an absolute d, crucially, in the former Conservative and Unionist Party.

    Nope, a hard border was the best chance for Irish unity, Boris has avoided that and Northern Ireland will still stay in the same Customs area as GB
    No. A hard border might have reignited the Troubles although such an idea is moot as no PM could have overseen one.

    Meanwhile to align NI and the RoI while detaching them, together, regulatorily from the mainland is encouraging unification.

    I am not hugely surprised that you can't see this but I am happy to keep pointing it out to you.
    NI and the RoI are already aligned in terms of a ity it has now
    The deal has just explicitly separated NI and RoI regulatorily from Great Britain. The email that you and I received today made an explicit separation between the mainland and Northern Ireland. Holistically the island of Ireland is more aligned.

    That is a nationalist's wet dream.

    I know you have just been there but you weren't in the right places asking the right people the right questions to gain an understanding of the issue. But the North Antrim coast I agree is a fantastic place. Bushmills is also a great place to visit.
    The Deal just ensures there continues to be no border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland while Northern Ireland remains in the UK customs area.

    A nationalist's wet dream would have been a hard border in Ireland making a vote for Irish unification more likely.

    North Antrim is a great place and staunchly loyalist
    Again, you are misunderstanding the situation.

    Nationalists don't want a cassus belli they want a united Ireland. The deal creates a de facto unified entity of the island of Ireland. That is a wet dream.

    I had heard that North Antrim was loyalist, thank you for confirming.
  • I expect their constituency offices are being bombarded with demands to accept. A vox pop in Dan Jarvis seat (Barnsley) demanded the deal is accepted apparently
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541

    DougSeal said:

    DougSeal said:



    Stop insulting people’s intelligence so frequently. People can have different interpretations of the same facts. You and I are on differing sides of this debate but both would have supported EEA/EFTA membership.

    I respond in kind. There are plenty of posters on here who I deeply disagree with but who it's usually possible to have a reasoned debate with. There are some who make no attempt to engage in debate and simply make snide or dishonest comments. I tailor my responses to their comments.
    You could have fooled me
    Probably because you haven't been paying attention.
    *sigh*
  • ZephyrZephyr Posts: 438

    ydoethur said:

    Zephyr said:

    They opened it changed it to add the line British Prime minister picks up the DUP and throws them under a bus.

    Go on, say that’s not true

    I’ll say it’s not true.

    What they’ve done is taken it back to the deal they put forward as their best case scenario in 2017, before May extracted several important concessions.

    And yet the Brexiteers have not looked at it closely enough to see it. Nor do they understand that this means that the EU will no longer be interested in negotiating a free trade deal unless we stay in CAP, CFP, etc because they now have all the leverage they need to walk away, instead of us ending up half in, half out by default.

    I bet Barnier can’t believe his luck.

    Admittedly, one bright spot is that the European Parliament will probably raise no objections whereas I was always nervous somebody with half a brain would spot what the EU had given away before.
    You've hit the nail on the head there. The removal of GB from the backstop and putting NI into a frontstop radically rebalances the FTA negotiations in the EU's favour. Not that Boris cares.
    I am not wrong. The surrendering to get a deal was a government desperate for a deal as its least worst option. They weren’t prepared to go through with no deal.

    You aren’t wrong either, that looks a particularly interesting concession they’ve made.

    Let’s hope no parliamentarians or media hacks are reading this tonight. They’d owe you a drink. Would that be your usual number 2 with carlshamns flaggpunsch original punsch?
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    I’d be dubious of government suggestions that more Labour MPs are willing to say yes . We’ve seen this type of spin before and it’s a way to get waverers to think there might be safety in numbers .
  • BalrogBalrog Posts: 207
    viewcode said:

    Ok. Is there anywhere open after 5pm on a Saturday that will exchange sterling for Euros?

    Transferwise. Can change currency in seconds 24 hours per day. Costs 0.3%. I tried to hedge by getting some euro when it got to 1.15 expecting it to fall again. But it didnt... Also Revolut but 0.5% cost after initial free amount.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,242
    edited October 2019
    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    In one week Boris Johnson has done more for the cause of Irish reunificaiton than Jeremy Corbyn, John McDonnell and the IRA managed in 40 years. He should get his own mural!

    Completern Irish voters vote for a united Ireland

    And that, of course, is why the DUP is so keen on it!

    Er,

    Soft or no border with RoI and a lot of congruence with EU: check.

    Hardish border with GB: check.

    Sounds a lot like a not very baby but actially quite grown-up step towards reunification?

    Yes, I was being ironic! Varadker has layed an absolute d, crucially, in the former Conservative and Unionist Party.

    Nope, a hard border was the best chance for Irish unity, Boris has avoided that and Northern Ireland will still stay in the same Customs area as GB
    No. A hard border might have reignited the Troubles although such an idea is moot as no PM could have overseen one.

    Meanwhile to align NI and the RoI while detaching them, together, regulatorily from the mainland is encouraging unification.

    I am not hugely surprised that you can't see this but I am happy to keep pointing it out to you.
    NI and the RoI are already aligned in terms of a ity it has now
    The deal has just explicitly separated NI and RoI regulatorily from Great Britain. The email that you and I received today made an explicit separation between the mainland and Northern Ireland. Holistically the island o visit.
    The Deal just ensures there continues to be no border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland while Northern Ireland remains in the UK customs area.

    A nationalist's wet dream would have been a hard border in Ireland making a vote for Irish unification more likely.

    North Antrim is a great place and staunchly loyalist
    Again, you are misunderstanding the situation.

    Nationalists don't want a cassus belli they want a united Ireland. The deal creates a de facto unified entity of the island of Ireland. That is a wet dream.

    I had heard that North Antrim was loyalist, thank you for confirming.
    The Nationalists want a formal political unity on the island of Ireland not a continuation of the de facto economic unity Ireland already largely has and which the Deal maintains while keeping Northern Ireland part of the UK and in the UK customs area.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,850
    nico67 said:

    I’d be dubious of government suggestions that more Labour MPs are willing to say yes . We’ve seen this type of spin before and it’s a way to get waverers to think there might be safety in numbers .

    The tactics are the same as ever, it's just a question if the situation has changed enough to make it work this time. FT says almost, but it's the most optimistic prediction yet.
  • nichomar said:

    nichomar said:



    You have done nothing to make this easier, I was promised EEA/EFTA by my tory MPMarcus Fysh before the referendum and now he is ERG why should I have any respect for any of the leavers now?

    I have done everything I can to make it easier. I supported an EFTA deal since long before anyone ever dreamed of a referendum and have not moved from that wish at all since then. But we don't always get everything we want and unlike you I have been willing to compromise. I will take any deal that gets us out of the EU. But I also said on here many times before the vote that if we lost I would accept that. Unfortunately you are not enough of an adult to do the same.

    You might have but who else has, 90% of remainers would have accepted EFTA but that’s not where we are at. My bloody MP promised me EFTA/EEA and has done nothing to deliver that promise and done his best to achieve the exact opposite. I really do not understand the obsession with getting out of the EU. I never will, as far as I am concerned it was an excellent arrangement that had no down sides that could of not have been mitigated by our own governments taking the right financial and investment decisions and using the immigration brakes that were always available.

    I have lost, I don’t need to be happy about it, I don’t need to agree with it it a shit deal for the UK but it’s obvious that I have to suck it and get on with it. I just leave one thought when we get to December 2020 and there is no FTA and you face no deal or no deal what happens?
    Hopefully we leave with no deal. Not my first choice but better than the alternstive.

  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,753
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    DougSeal said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Her constituency voted Remain anyway, 2/3 of MPs have Leave voting seats
    You have said before a Tory majority would be needed to pass a deal - do you still think that is the case, or do you think it will pass, and if so how many Lab votes will it take?
    It would take 20 to 30 Labour MPs which is possible if the alternative is No Deal but not if the alternative is extension.

    In the unlikely event the EU agreed further extension and France does not veto then of course we are into all out war from next week with the diehard Remainers with Boris sabotaging extension at every turn with full support from Tories and Leavers
    Didn’t you declare war on the diehard remainers three or four times this year already?
    We have not reached October 31st yet, only if we are still in the EU then does all out war really begin
    You are in serious danger of having a mental breakdown. Calm down
    Those wanting to respect the Leave vote have had 7 months of biting their tongues, they will not tolerate their vote being denied again
    So you respect the Leave vote and won't tolerate your vote being denied. That is excellent news; as you voted remain you will campaign not to have your vote denied.
  • ZephyrZephyr Posts: 438
    Balrog said:

    viewcode said:

    Ok. Is there anywhere open after 5pm on a Saturday that will exchange sterling for Euros?

    Transferwise. Can change currency in seconds 24 hours per day. Costs 0.3%. I tried to hedge by getting some euro when it got to 1.15 expecting it to fall again. But it didnt... Also Revolut but 0.5% cost after initial free amount.
    Bloody hell. A balrog has come.
  • TOPPING said:


    I had heard that North Antrim was loyalist, thank you for confirming.

    Except for the Catholic bit, of course!

    https://cain.ulster.ac.uk/images/maps/2001religionwardsni2.jpg
  • I expect their constituency offices are being bombarded with demands to accept. A vox pop in Dan Jarvis seat (Barnsley) demanded the deal is accepted apparently
    It is clear where the wind of public opinion is blowing ie get it f##king done. I dont fancy being an MP who rejected two different deals and try to argue what we need is another year of going back to negotiate before having another vote (which they advocate voting no to).
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    edited October 2019
    Zephyr said:

    Balrog said:

    viewcode said:

    Ok. Is there anywhere open after 5pm on a Saturday that will exchange sterling for Euros?

    Transferwise. Can change currency in seconds 24 hours per day. Costs 0.3%. I tried to hedge by getting some euro when it got to 1.15 expecting it to fall again. But it didnt... Also Revolut but 0.5% cost after initial free amount.
    Bloody hell. A balrog has come.
    Durin's Bane
    Sigh, and I am already weary
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    DougSeal said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Her constituency voted Remain anyway, 2/3 of MPs have Leave voting seats
    You have said before a Tory majority would be needed to pass a deal - do you still think that is the case, or do you think it will pass, and if so how many Lab votes will it take?
    It would take 20 to 30 Labour MPs which is possible if the alternative is No Deal but not if the alternative is extension.

    In the unlikely event the EU agreed further extension and France does not veto then of course we are into all out war from next week with the diehard Remainers with Boris sabotaging extension at every turn with full support from Tories and Leavers
    Didn’t you declare war on the diehard remainers three or four times this year already?
    We have not reached October 31st yet, only if we are still in the EU then does all out war really begin
    You are in serious danger of having a mental breakdown. Calm down
    Those wanting to respect the Leave vote have had 7 months of biting their tongues, they will not tolerate their vote being denied again
    Sadly, you have recently become far too aggresive and you are better than that. You have an amazing insight into polling and politics and are a valued poster but try and get some balance and even understanding of other peoples views
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,817

    I expect their constituency offices are being bombarded with demands to accept. A vox pop in Dan Jarvis seat (Barnsley) demanded the deal is accepted apparently
    It is clear where the wind of public opinion is blowing ie get it f##king done. I dont fancy being an MP who rejected two different deals and try to argue what we need is another year of going back to negotiate before having another vote (which they advocate voting no to).
    Labour's renegotiate and reject policy ranks quite highly amongst the most dumbest policies I've ever heard.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    If it passes can you imagine the utter carnage amongst the remain alliance?!
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    Zephyr said:


    Bloody hell. A balrog has come.

    If I wasn't so knackered, I'd whip up a lame meme of Jezza as Gandalf on the bridge yelling you-know-what.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,242

    TOPPING said:


    I had heard that North Antrim was loyalist, thank you for confirming.

    Except for the Catholic bit, of course!

    https://cain.ulster.ac.uk/images/maps/2001religionwardsni2.jpg
    Thrre are also Protestant bits in Fermanagh and Derry but they are majority Catholic and Antrim is majority Protestant
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,502



    Elphicke is under suspension of the whip till the result of his court case this month, hes an indy.
    Kelvin Hopkins may well abstain

    Doubt it very much. He's a Corbyn loyalist through thick and thin, despite being suspended.

    I'm confused about John Mann. Is he in the Lords now or not?
  • RobD said:

    I expect their constituency offices are being bombarded with demands to accept. A vox pop in Dan Jarvis seat (Barnsley) demanded the deal is accepted apparently
    It is clear where the wind of public opinion is blowing ie get it f##king done. I dont fancy being an MP who rejected two different deals and try to argue what we need is another year of going back to negotiate before having another vote (which they advocate voting no to).
    Labour's renegotiate and reject policy ranks quite highly amongst the most dumbest policies I've ever heard.
    They have a very long list of dumb policies these days....
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    I’m happy to accept this deal but MPs have to put in safeguards in case the WAIB hits problems .

    The big problem is even if the deal gets through it’s unlikely to have a decent majority .
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,753
    edited October 2019
    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    In one week Boris Johnson has done more for the cause of Irish reunificaiton than Jeremy Corbyn, John McDonnell and the IRA managed in 40 years. He should get his own mural!

    Completern Irish voters vote for a united Ireland

    And that, of course, is why the DUP is so keen on it!

    Er,

    Soft or no border with RoI and a lot of congruence with EU: check.

    Hardish border with GB: check.

    Sounds a lot like a not very baby but actially quite grown-up step towards reunification?

    Yes, I was being ironic! Varadker has layed an absolute d, crucially, in the former Conservative and Unionist Party.

    Nope, a hard border was the best chance for Irish unity, Boris has avoided that and Northern Ireland will still stay in the same Customs area as GB
    No. A hard border might have reignited the Troubles although such an idea is moot as no PM could have overseen one.

    Meanwhile to align NI and the RoI while detaching them, together, regulatorily from the mainland is encouraging unification.

    I am not hugely surprised that you can't see this but I am happy to keep pointing it out to you.
    NI and the RoI are already aligned in terms of a ity it has now
    The it.
    Tntrim is a great place and staunchly loyalist
    Againing.
    The Nationalists want a formal political unity on the island of Ireland not a continuation of the de facto economic unity Ireland already largely has and which the Deal maintains while keeping Northern Ireland part of the UK and in the UK customs area.
    Finally you are beginning to get it. Yes. They want a formal political unity. But they don't expect it tomorrow morning. The deal creates a difference between Great Britain on the one hand and the island of Ireland on the other.

    In other words something has changed. Previously Great Britain and Northern Ireland were wholly aligned. That is no longer the case. The island of Ireland has been distanced from the mainland. It is a step towards that formal political unity.
  • ZephyrZephyr Posts: 438
    HYUFD said:

    Great, Boris could then get his Deal through and gets the bonus of starting a Labour civil war too!
    Only 2 more HY political fantasy days till reality hits 😀
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,313

    If it passes can you imagine the utter carnage amongst the remain alliance?!

    It will take more than one vote for ratification.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,242
    edited October 2019

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    DougSeal said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Her constituency voted Remain anyway, 2/3 of MPs have Leave voting seats
    You have said before a Tory majority would be needed to pass a deal - do you still think that is the case, or do you think it will pass, and if so how many Lab votes will it take?
    It would take 20 to 30 Labour MPs which is possible if the alternative is No Deal but not if the alternative is extension.

    In the unlikely event the EU agreed further extension and France does not veto then of course we are into all out war from next week with the diehard Remainers with Boris sabotaging extension at every turn with full support from Tories and Leavers
    Didn’t you declare war on the diehard remainers three or four times this year already?
    We have not reached October 31st yet, only if we are still in the EU then does all out war really begin
    You are in serious danger of having a mental breakdown. Calm down
    Those wanting to respect the Leave vote have had 7 months of biting their tongues, they will not tolerate their vote being denied again
    Sadly, you have recently become far too aggresive and you are better than that. You have an amazing insight into polling and politics and are a valued poster but try and get some balance and even understanding of other peoples views
    I have had enough doors slammed in my face from angry Leave voters over the last few months furious we are still in the EU 7 months after we were supposed to Leave after Leave won the referendum, to know that further extension could turn very ugly indeed regardless of my personal views.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207

    RobD said:

    I expect their constituency offices are being bombarded with demands to accept. A vox pop in Dan Jarvis seat (Barnsley) demanded the deal is accepted apparently
    It is clear where the wind of public opinion is blowing ie get it f##king done. I dont fancy being an MP who rejected two different deals and try to argue what we need is another year of going back to negotiate before having another vote (which they advocate voting no to).
    Labour's renegotiate and reject policy ranks quite highly amongst the most dumbest policies I've ever heard.
    They have a very long list of dumb policies these days....
    That they do
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    The Johnson Deal is so bad, no sensible person should vote for it, unless it's to get us out of a political hole. And that is not a good reason in general for a major treaty commitment and constitutional change.

    Not least because there's a better, if not necessarily good, alternative already agreed by Theresa May.
  • So how pleased are the various PBers who have said that Farage wants to stop Brexit feeling this evening ?

    And a very good piece from CycleFree.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786



    Elphicke is under suspension of the whip till the result of his court case this month, hes an indy.
    Kelvin Hopkins may well abstain

    Doubt it very much. He's a Corbyn loyalist through thick and thin, despite being suspended.

    I'm confused about John Mann. Is he in the Lords now or not?
    Mann is not yet a Lord and has confirmed he is a yes
    Hopkins is leave means leave believer. Abstained on Benn Act
  • StonchStonch Posts: 43

    HYUFD said:

    So we have Farage now celebrating Benn Act, Starmer claiming it definitely worse deal, even though he won't have seen the text yet and Swinson of course claiming the only deal is to stay in the EU.

    The HoC will say no and its going to be more silly buggering around isn't it.

    No it wil be No Deal then as the EU have now refused further extension
    Source?
    HYUFD is not accurate.

    Junckers, the Belgium PM and Macron have all said no prolongation to the deal on the 31st October but as with anything EU it is not yet definitive
    BigG, why do you always write "Junckers" instead of "Juncker"? His name is the latter. I've just noticed you always do it
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,425
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    DougSeal said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Her constituency voted Remain anyway, 2/3 of MPs have Leave voting seats
    You have said before a Tory majority would be needed to pass a deal - do you still think that is the case, or do you think it will pass, and if so how many Lab votes will it take?
    It would take 20 to 30 Labour MPs which is possible if the alternative is No Deal but not if the alternative is extension.

    In the unlikely event the EU agreed further extension and France does not veto then of course we are into all out war from next week with the diehard Remainers with Boris sabotaging extension at every turn with full support from Tories and Leavers
    Didn’t you declare war on the diehard remainers three or four times this year already?
    We have not reached October 31st yet, only if we are still in the EU then does all out war really begin
    You are in serious danger of having a mental breakdown. Calm down
    Those wanting to respect the Leave vote have had 7 months of biting their tongues, they will not tolerate their vote being denied again
    Sadly, you have recently become far too aggresive and you are better than that. You have an amazing insight into polling and politics and are a valued poster but try and get some balance and even understanding of other peoples views
    I have had enough doors slammed in my face from angry Leave voters over the last few months angry we are still in the EU 7 months after we voted Leave to know that further extension could turn very ugly indeed regardless of my personal views.
    I’m sure they’ll tut loudly into their Daily Mails.
  • ZephyrZephyr Posts: 438
    Andrew said:

    Zephyr said:


    Bloody hell. A balrog has come.

    If I wasn't so knackered, I'd whip up a lame meme of Jezza as Gandalf on the bridge yelling you-know-what.
    I am a servant of the secret fire. This deal shall not pass.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154
    Zephyr said:

    ydoethur said:

    Zephyr said:

    They opened it changed it to add the line British Prime minister picks up the DUP and throws them under a bus.

    Go on, say that’s not true

    I’ll say it’s not true.

    What they’ve done is taken it back to the deal they put forward as their best case scenario in 2017, before May extracted several important concessions.

    And yet the Brexiteers have not looked at it closely enough to see it. Nor do they understand that this means that the EU will no longer be interested in negotiating a free trade deal unless we stay in CAP, CFP, etc because they now have all the leverage they need to walk away, instead of us ending up half in, half out by default.

    I bet Barnier can’t believe his luck.

    Admittedly, one bright spot is that the European Parliament will probably raise no objections whereas I was always nervous somebody with half a brain would spot what the EU had given away before.
    You've hit the nail on the head there. The removal of GB from the backstop and putting NI into a frontstop radically rebalances the FTA negotiations in the EU's favour. Not that Boris cares.
    I am not wrong. The surrendering to get a deal was a government desperate for a deal as its least worst option. They weren’t prepared to go through with no deal.

    You aren’t wrong either, that looks a particularly interesting concession they’ve made.

    Let’s hope no parliamentarians or media hacks are reading this tonight. They’d owe you a drink. Would that be your usual number 2 with carlshamns flaggpunsch original punsch?
    I think you’ve misunderstood my comment. ‘They’ refers to the EU. They did not reopen it per se, they just removed several concessions the UK had obtained.

    This is why anyone who voted against May’s deal would be mad to vote for this one (for the record, I expect Baker, Francois, Mogg, Raab to vote for this).
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    edited October 2019
    Maybe relevant, some who voted with the govt on the Saturday motion:
    https://commonsvotes.digiminster.com/Divisions/Details/720?byMember=false#noes

    DUP: Wilson
    Indies: Austin, Benyon, Brine, Clark, Elphicke, Field, S.Hammond, Nokes, Soames.
    Lab: Barron, Mann
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,210
    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    In one week Boris Johnson has done more for the cause of Irish reunificaiton than Jeremy Corbyn, John McDonnell and the IRA managed in 40 years. He should get his own mural!

    Completern Irish voters vote for a united Ireland

    And that, of course, is why the DUP is so keen on it!

    Er,

    Soft or no border with RoI and a lot of congruence with EU: check.

    Hardish border with GB: check.

    Sounds a lot like a not very baby but actially quite grown-up step towards reunification?

    Yes, I was being ironic! Varadker has layed an absolute d, crucially, in the former Conservative and Unionist Party.

    Nope, a hard border was the best chance for Irish unity, Boris has avoided that and Northern Ireland will still stay in the same Customs area as GB
    No. A hard border might have reignited the Troubles although such an idea is moot as no PM could have overseen one.

    Meanwhile to align NI and the RoI while detaching them, together, regulatorily from the mainland is encouraging unification.

    I am not hugely surprised that you can't see this but I am happy to keep pointing it out to you.
    NI and the RoI are already aligned in terms of a ity it has now
    The it.
    Tntrim is a great place and staunchly loyalist
    Againing.
    The Nationalists want a formal political unity on the island of Ireland not a continuation of the de facto economic unity Ireland already largely has and which the Deal maintains while keeping Northern Ireland part of the UK and in the UK customs area.
    Finally you are beginning to get it. Yes. They want a formal political unity. But they don't expect it tomorrow morning. The deal creates a difference between Great Britain on the one hand and the island of Ireland on the other.

    In other words something has changed. Previously Great Britain and Northern Ireland were wholly aligned. That is no longer the case. The island of Ireland has been distanced from the mainland. It is a step towards that formal political unity.
    That's not true though. Northern Ireland has always been politically separate. It wasn't aligned with GB under Stormont, nor under Direct Rule, and it isn't now.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,190
    edited October 2019
    eek said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    In one week Boris Johnson has done more for the cause of Irish reunificaiton than Jeremy Corbyn, John McDonnell and the IRA managed in 40 years. He should get his own mural!

    Completely wrong, Boris has actually got a Deal that avoids the hard border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland which would have been most likely to see Northern Irish voters vote for a united Ireland

    And that, of course, is why the DUP is so keen on it!

    I prefer what the polls of Northern Ireland voters say rather than what the DUP think (though the DUP and loyalist paramilitaries would likely declare UDI for Antrim rather than accept a united Ireland vote in Northern Ireland anyway)

    Don't ever change!

    Isn’t this all just clearing the path for Boris’ favoured option of no deal?

    I doubt it. Johnson proved my wrong. I genuinely did not see him throwing the DUP under a train so easily. My crucial mistake was to believe him when he talked of “our precious Union”. More fool me!!

    He just can’t win can he?!

    He has won, hasn’t he?

    That's the great unknown. I don't believe Boris is that lucky so I suspect there are a few more issues still to come.
    Johnson is very lucky. No other politician could survive the Johnson backstory, not just the private life, but the litany of lies too. Finding your two main political opponents to be Livingston and Corbyn has been incredible good fortune.

    I am convinced he will be called out over the Arcuri business, not as a result of any nocturnal improprieties but the alleged corrupt use of public funds. Any other politician would fall on their sword. Boris will front it out and probably survive.

    Boris is very lucky! Whatever happens on Saturday he has won and he is in for the long haul.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    It doesn't matter one jot if the deal passes by just one vote. A win will be a win. End of it.

    Fair play to Johnson. Looks like he has pulled this out of the bag. I think it may well pass on Saturday.

    The remainers last hope is to attach a People's Vote. The Opposition parties overplayed their hand, became cocky and gave Johnson time to get out of jail. Very very very foolish and inept. I tried warning some of them about this but my words fell on deaf ears.
  • Stonch said:

    HYUFD said:

    So we have Farage now celebrating Benn Act, Starmer claiming it definitely worse deal, even though he won't have seen the text yet and Swinson of course claiming the only deal is to stay in the EU.

    The HoC will say no and its going to be more silly buggering around isn't it.

    No it wil be No Deal then as the EU have now refused further extension
    Source?
    HYUFD is not accurate.

    Junckers, the Belgium PM and Macron have all said no prolongation to the deal on the 31st October but as with anything EU it is not yet definitive
    BigG, why do you always write "Junckers" instead of "Juncker"? His name is the latter. I've just noticed you always do it
    Maybe he's a WW2 aircraft aficionado :)
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786

    If it passes can you imagine the utter carnage amongst the remain alliance?!

    It will take more than one vote for ratification.
    If it passes the initial vote, opposition to it will melt away and it will pass easily.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,313
    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:


    I had heard that North Antrim was loyalist, thank you for confirming.

    Except for the Catholic bit, of course!

    https://cain.ulster.ac.uk/images/maps/2001religionwardsni2.jpg
    Thrre are also Protestant bits in Fermanagh and Derry but they are majority Catholic and Antrim is majority Protestant
    Ah yes, 20 Lattone Road in Belcoo is a staunch loyalist area and would no doubt form part of any breakaway statelet in the event of unification.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    DougSeal said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Her constituency voted Remain anyway, 2/3 of MPs have Leave voting seats
    You have said before a Tory majority would be needed to pass a deal - do you still think that is the case, or do you think it will pass, and if so how many Lab votes will it take?
    It would take 20 to 30 Labour MPs which is possible if the alternative is No Deal but not if the alternative is extension.

    In the unlikely event the EU agreed further extension and France does not veto then of course we are into all out war from next week with the diehard Remainers with Boris sabotaging extension at every turn with full support from Tories and Leavers
    Didn’t you declare war on the diehard remainers three or four times this year already?
    We have not reached October 31st yet, only if we are still in the EU then does all out war really begin
    You are in serious danger of having a mental breakdown. Calm down
    Those wanting to respect the Leave vote have had 7 months of biting their tongues, they will not tolerate their vote being denied again
    Sadly, you have recently become far too aggresive and you are better than that. You have an amazing insight into polling and politics and are a valued poster but try and get some balance and even understanding of other peoples views
    I have had enough doors slammed in my face from angry Leave voters over the last few months furious we are still in the EU 7 months after we were supposed to Leave after Leave won the referendum, to know that further extension could turn very ugly indeed regardless of my personal views.
    Well at least you can never knock on my door, one has to be grateful for small mercies
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502

    If it passes can you imagine the utter carnage amongst the remain alliance?!

    It’s all about the future relationship after this , we’ll still have a choice as to how close the UK will be to the EU .

    The parties will have to put that in their manifestos .
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,313

    If it passes can you imagine the utter carnage amongst the remain alliance?!

    It will take more than one vote for ratification.
    If it passes the initial vote, opposition to it will melt away and it will pass easily.
    Speculation. It could go the other way and there could be buyer's remorse when the reality sinks in.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Zephyr said:

    Andrew said:

    Zephyr said:


    Bloody hell. A balrog has come.

    If I wasn't so knackered, I'd whip up a lame meme of Jezza as Gandalf on the bridge yelling you-know-what.
    I am a servant of the secret fire. This deal shall not pass.
    Drums, drums in the deep. We are trapped! We cannot get out!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,850



    Elphicke is under suspension of the whip till the result of his court case this month, hes an indy.
    Kelvin Hopkins may well abstain

    I'm confused about John Mann. Is he in the Lords now or not?
    The all knowing wikipedia says he is still the MP for Bassetlaw. Lords get introduced two by two, so it appears he is an MP until that happens? Which could be crucial if it is as close as FT say - though they have three Indy votes, when if Mann is there it would be 4.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,753

    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    In one week Boris Johnson has done more for the cause of Irish reunificaiton than Jeremy Corbyn, John McDonnell and the IRA managed in 40 years. He should get his own mural!

    Completern Irish voters vote for a united Ireland

    And that, of course, is why the DUP is so keen on it!

    Er,

    Soft or no border with RoI and a lot of congruence with EU: check.

    Hardish border with GB: check.

    Sounds a lot like a not very baby but actially quite grown-up step towards reunification?

    Yes, I was being ironic! Varadker has layed an absolute d, crucially, in the former Conservative and Unionist Party.

    Nope, a hard border was the best chance for Irish unity, Boris has avoided that and Northern Ireland will still stay in the same Customs area as GB
    No. A hard border might have reignited the Troubles although such an idea is moot as no PM could have overseen one.

    Meanwhile to align NI and the RoI while detaching them, together, regulatorily from the mainland is encouraging unification.

    I am not hugely surprised that you can't see this but I am happy to keep pointing it out to you.
    NI and the RoI are already aligned in terms of a ity it has now
    The it.
    Tntrim is a great place and staunchly loyalist
    Againing.
    The Nationalists want a formal political unity on the island of Ireland not a continuation of the de facto economic unity Ireland already largely has and which the Deal maintains while keeping Northern Ireland part of the UK and in the UK customs area.
    Finally you are beginning to get it. Yes. They want a formal political unity. But they don't expect it tomorrow morning. The deal creates a difference between Great Britain on the one hand and the island of Ireland on the other.

    In other words something has changed. Previously Great Britain and Northern Ireland were wholly aligned. That is no longer the case. The island of Ireland has been distanced from the mainland. It is a step towards that formal political unity.
    That's not true though. Northern Ireland has always been politically separate. It wasn't aligned with GB under Stormont, nor under Direct Rule, and it isn't now.
    The separation will be more noted and enshrined in treaty.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,242
    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    In one week Boris Johnson has done more for the cause of Irish reunificaiton than Jeremy Corbyn, John McDonnell and the IRA managed in 40 years. He should get his own mural!

    Completern Irish voters vote for a united Ireland

    And that, of course, is why the DUP is so keen on it!

    Er,

    Soft or no border with RoI and a lot of congruence with EU: check.

    Hardish border with GB: check.

    Sounds a lot like a not very baby but actially quite grown-up step towards reunification?

    Yes, I was being ironic! Varadker has layed an absolute d, crucially, in the former Conservative and Unionist Party.

    Nope, a hard border was the best chance for Irish unity, Boris has avoided that and Northern Ireland will still stay in the same Customs area as GB
    No. A hard border might have reignited the Troubles although such an idea is moot as no PM could have overseen one.

    Meanwhile to align NI and the RoI while detaching them, together, regulatorily from the mainland is encouraging unification.

    I am not hugely surprised that you can't see this but I am happy to keep pointing it out to you.
    NI and the RoI are already aligned in terms of a ity it has now
    The it.
    Tntrim is a great place and staunchly loyalist
    Againing.
    The Nationalists want a formal political unity on the island of area.
    Finally you are beginning to get it. Yes. They want a formal political unity. But they don't expect it tomorrow morning. The deal creates a difference between Great Britain on the one hand and the island of Ireland on the other.

    In other words something has changed. Previously Great Britain and Northern Ireland were wholly aligned. That is no longer the case. The island of Ireland has been distanced from the mainland. It is a step towards that formal political unity.
    The biggest step towards formal political Irish unity would have been a hard border in Ireland, this deal avoids that.

    If there was a hard border most Irish counties would vote to leave the UK and for Irish unity with the exception of Antrim which might declare UDI rather than be forced to join the Republic of Ireland agsinst its will but would still likely leave the UK
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,639
    edited October 2019
    deleted, on reflection
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786

    If it passes can you imagine the utter carnage amongst the remain alliance?!

    It will take more than one vote for ratification.
    If it passes the initial vote, opposition to it will melt away and it will pass easily.
    Speculation. It could go the other way and there could be buyer's remorse when the reality sinks in.
    What with no extension, no Benn Act to save them and no deal on the 31st?!
  • Stonch said:

    HYUFD said:

    So we have Farage now celebrating Benn Act, Starmer claiming it definitely worse deal, even though he won't have seen the text yet and Swinson of course claiming the only deal is to stay in the EU.

    The HoC will say no and its going to be more silly buggering around isn't it.

    No it wil be No Deal then as the EU have now refused further extension
    Source?
    HYUFD is not accurate.

    Junckers, the Belgium PM and Macron have all said no prolongation to the deal on the 31st October but as with anything EU it is not yet definitive
    BigG, why do you always write "Junckers" instead of "Juncker"? His name is the latter. I've just noticed you always do it
    Not sure to be honest.

    Must be an age related thing. Juncker from now on or at least until the 1st November when he retires
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,817
    .
    kle4 said:



    Elphicke is under suspension of the whip till the result of his court case this month, hes an indy.
    Kelvin Hopkins may well abstain

    I'm confused about John Mann. Is he in the Lords now or not?
    The all knowing wikipedia says he is still the MP for Bassetlaw. Lords get introduced two by two, so it appears he is an MP until that happens? Which could be crucial if it is as close as FT say - though they have three Indy votes, when if Mann is there it would be 4.
    No Lords business scheduled for tomorrow, and he wasn't introduced today.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    nico67 said:

    If it passes can you imagine the utter carnage amongst the remain alliance?!

    It’s all about the future relationship after this , we’ll still have a choice as to how close the UK will be to the EU .

    The parties will have to put that in their manifestos .
    Yes true. Advantage Boris atm, he has the recent form on getting stuff from the EU
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,753
    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    In one week Boris Johnson has done more for the cause of Irish reunificaiton than Jeremy Corbyn, John McDonnell and the IRA managed in 40 years. He should get his own mural!

    Completern Irish voters vote for a united Ireland

    And that, of course, is why the DUP is so keen on it!

    Er,

    Soft or no border with RoI and a lot of congruence with EU: check.

    Hardish border with GB: check.

    Sounds a lot like a not very baby but actially quite grown-up step towards reunification?

    Yes, I was being ironic! Varadker has layed an absolute d, crucially, in the former Conservative and Unionist Party.

    Nope, a hard border was the best chance for Irish unity, Boris has avoided that and Northern Ireland will still stay in the same Customs area as GB
    No. A hard border might have reignited the Troubles although such an idea is moot as no PM could have overseen one.

    Meanwhile to align NI and the RoI while detaching them, together, regulatorily from the mainland is encouraging unification.

    I am not hugely surprised that you can't see this but I am happy to keep pointing it out to you.
    NI and the RoI are already aligned in terms of a ity it has now
    The it.
    Tntrim is a great place and staunchly loyalist
    Againing.
    The Nationalists want a formal political unity on the island of area.
    Finally you are beginning to get it. Yes. They want a formal polieen distanced from the mainland. It is a step towards that formal political unity.
    The biggest step towards formal political Irish unity would have been a hard border in Ireland, this deal avoids that.

    If there was a hard border most Irish counties would vote to leave the UK and for Irish unity with the exception of Antrim which might declare UDI rather than be forced to join the Republic of Ireland agsinst its will but would still likely leave the UK
    You are wrong. You are getting distracted by a hard border. That was never going to happen. What we have today however is a formal arrangement to separate the island of Ireland from GB.
  • Zephyr said:

    Andrew said:

    Zephyr said:


    Bloody hell. A balrog has come.

    If I wasn't so knackered, I'd whip up a lame meme of Jezza as Gandalf on the bridge yelling you-know-what.
    I am a servant of the secret fire. This deal shall not pass.
    Drums, drums in the deep. We are trapped! We cannot get out!
    Fly, you fucking fools.
  • ZephyrZephyr Posts: 438

    Zephyr said:

    Andrew said:

    Zephyr said:


    Bloody hell. A balrog has come.

    If I wasn't so knackered, I'd whip up a lame meme of Jezza as Gandalf on the bridge yelling you-know-what.
    I am a servant of the secret fire. This deal shall not pass.
    Drums, drums in the deep. We are trapped! We cannot get out!
    Unless as last result The government have stepped up preparations to drop us all into kazad doom. Do or die and all that
  • isam said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    UK to leave the EU on or by 31 Oct is 2.8 on Betfair

    A GE in 2019 is 2.88


    Now it’s 2.56 and 2.96

    How can Leave not be fav over GE?
    It's not easy to see how the deal passes. Even if every Conservative, whipless or not, votes in favour, you need a (Steve) Baker's dozen of opposition MPs to get the deal over the line. And Saturday will be as good as it gets- the more people talk, the more they will find to dislike.
    So lay the deal passing at 13/8?
    For the deal to pass, everything has to go right from here- no Spartan holdouts, all the no-no-deal ex-Conservatives back on board, and a dozen opposition MPs voting for the deal. Not impossible- but if I were a monkey, I'd be fairly sure what had happened to my paw.
    And it does feel set up for a single shot. If the government is defeated on Saturday, there has to be an extension, and then everyone has time to read and quibble.
    isam said:



    I asked earlier, I’m curious to know how long you’ve lived in Romford and what you think of it? I have lived in Hornchurch or Upminster most of my life, and Romford is a no go area now, having been the place we all went 20 years ago

    That's more interesting... especially having moved there in '08 after living in lots of other places beforehand. I'm far too old to have been in South Street at chucking out time, which is about the only time/place I would think of as a no go area. But in the last 10-20 years, the makeup of Romford has changed; crudely, it has gone from being the first distinct town in Essex to the last suburb of London.

    That's caused problems; some of them economic, some of them social, some of them psychological. I can imagine that if you've moved to Romford to escape London (which lots of people did), it sucks massively if London has caught up with you again. And like all the other social upheavals in the UK, it's not been handled sensitively. So you get people saying, with reasonable seriousness, that Havering borough ought to transfer out of Greater London into Essex. And you get Romford as an example of Brexit central.

    And I don't entirely know what the answer is. It doesn't make sense to say that it was OK for London to expand to Stratford or Ilford, but not to Romford. In the long run, I do think that opening societies gives people more opportunities and possibilities than closing
    them down. But people get hurt in the change, and that's got to be considered.
  • Carnyx said:

    deleted, on reflection

    Lol.
    Drinking the Boris-Aid wipes all memories clean.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,313
    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    In one week Boris Johnson has done more for the cause of Irish reunificaiton than Jeremy Corbyn, John McDonnell and the IRA managed in 40 years. He should get his own mural!

    Completern Irish voters vote for a united Ireland

    And that, of course, is why the DUP is so keen on it!

    Er,

    Soft or no border with RoI and a lot of congruence with EU: check.

    Hardish border with GB: check.

    Sounds a lot like a not very baby but actially quite grown-up step towards reunification?

    Yes, I was being ironic! Varadker has layed an absolute d, crucially, in the former Conservative and Unionist Party.

    Nope, a hard border was the best chance for Irish unity, Boris has avoided that and Northern Ireland will still stay in the same Customs area as GB
    No. A hard border might have reignited the Troubles although such an idea is moot as no PM could have overseen one.

    Meanwhile to align NI and the RoI while detaching them, together, regulatorily from the mainland is encouraging unification.

    I am not hugely surprised that you can't see this but I am happy to keep pointing it out to you.
    NI and the RoI are already aligned in terms of a ity it has now
    The it.
    Tntrim is a great place and staunchly loyalist
    Againing.
    The Nationalists want a formal political unity on the island of area.
    Finally you are beginning to get it. Yes. They want a formal polieen distanced from the mainland. It is a step towards that formal political unity.
    The biggest step towards formal political Irish unity would have been a hard border in Ireland, this deal avoids that.

    If there was a hard border most Irish counties would vote to leave the UK and for Irish unity with the exception of Antrim which might declare UDI rather than be forced to join the Republic of Ireland agsinst its will but would still likely leave the UK
    You are wrong. You are getting distracted by a hard border. That was never going to happen. What we have today however is a formal arrangement to separate the island of Ireland from GB.
    You have to bear in mind that HYUFD is untroubled by practical facts on the ground. Only polls count.
  • Stonch said:

    HYUFD said:

    So we have Farage now celebrating Benn Act, Starmer claiming it definitely worse deal, even though he won't have seen the text yet and Swinson of course claiming the only deal is to stay in the EU.

    The HoC will say no and its going to be more silly buggering around isn't it.

    No it wil be No Deal then as the EU have now refused further extension
    Source?
    HYUFD is not accurate.

    Junckers, the Belgium PM and Macron have all said no prolongation to the deal on the 31st October but as with anything EU it is not yet definitive
    BigG, why do you always write "Junckers" instead of "Juncker"? His name is the latter. I've just noticed you always do it
    Maybe he's a WW2 aircraft aficionado :)
    Just missing a V bomb exploding nearby, which killed several, after stopping over our house I am no aficionado of WW2 aircraft. Mind you I was a baby at the time of the explosion apparently hiding under a table with my Mother and family
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,639

    Carnyx said:

    deleted, on reflection

    Lol.
    Drinking the Boris-Aid wipes all memories clean.
    It does, doesn't it? Actually it was about one of the Scots Tories fanboys but it seemed just so unkind to repeatd what he said a year ago ...
  • ZephyrZephyr Posts: 438

    Stonch said:

    HYUFD said:

    So we have Farage now celebrating Benn Act, Starmer claiming it definitely worse deal, even though he won't have seen the text yet and Swinson of course claiming the only deal is to stay in the EU.

    The HoC will say no and its going to be more silly buggering around isn't it.

    No it wil be No Deal then as the EU have now refused further extension
    Source?
    HYUFD is not accurate.

    Junckers, the Belgium PM and Macron have all said no prolongation to the deal on the 31st October but as with anything EU it is not yet definitive
    BigG, why do you always write "Junckers" instead of "Juncker"? His name is the latter. I've just noticed you always do it
    Maybe he's a WW2 aircraft aficionado :)
    Been taking an interest in Miss Shillings orifice? A man of his age and repute!
  • TOPPING said:



    The separation will be more noted and enshrined in treaty.

    But as long as it is with the consent of the people is that really a problem. I don't believe the DUP is close to representing a majority of the people in NI so it seems to me that this is a deal that is in line with majority opinion and the fact remains that it is only with consent that there can be any closer moves towards reunification
  • TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:



    Yes, I was being ironic! Varadker has layed an absolute d, crucially, in the former Conservative and Unionist Party.

    Nope, a hard border was the best chance for Irish unity, Boris has avoided that and Northern Ireland will still stay in the same Customs area as GB
    No. A hard border might have reignited the Troubles although such an idea is moot as no PM could have overseen one.

    Meanwhile to align NI and the RoI while detaching them, together, regulatorily from the mainland is encouraging unification.

    I am not hugely surprised that you can't see this but I am happy to keep pointing it out to you.
    NI and the RoI are already aligned in terms of a ity it has now
    The it.
    Tntrim is a great place and staunchly loyalist
    Againing.
    The Nationalists want a formal political unity on the island of Ireland not a continuation of the de facto economic unity Ireland already largely has and which the Deal maintains while keeping Northern Ireland part of the UK and in the UK customs area.
    Finally you are beginning to get it. Yes. They want a formal political unity. But they don't expect it tomorrow morning. The deal creates a difference between Great Britain on the one hand and the island of Ireland on the other.

    In other words something has changed. Previously Great Britain and Northern Ireland were wholly aligned. That is no longer the case. The island of Ireland has been distanced from the mainland. It is a step towards that formal political unity.
    That's not true though. Northern Ireland has always been politically separate. It wasn't aligned with GB under Stormont, nor under Direct Rule, and it isn't now.
    The separation will be more noted and enshrined in treaty.
    The DUP have been happy about being treated differently when it suited their purposes, they should have been looking longer term and aimed af full integration with GB.

    Meanwhile the RoI is no longer the backward craphole dominated by the Catholic church it once was and the memories of WW2 and needs of the Cold War have gone so reducing goodwill toward NI.

    The underlying truth, which I'm not sure the DUP have ever understood, is that English people don't look upon NI as being part of the same country in the way they do Scotland and Wales let alone the different parts of England.
  • I remember when politicians tried to hide personal profiteering....

    BBC News - National Doral Miami: Trump Florida golf course to host G7 summit
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-50087836
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,817

    Stonch said:

    HYUFD said:

    So we have Farage now celebrating Benn Act, Starmer claiming it definitely worse deal, even though he won't have seen the text yet and Swinson of course claiming the only deal is to stay in the EU.

    The HoC will say no and its going to be more silly buggering around isn't it.

    No it wil be No Deal then as the EU have now refused further extension
    Source?
    HYUFD is not accurate.

    Junckers, the Belgium PM and Macron have all said no prolongation to the deal on the 31st October but as with anything EU it is not yet definitive
    BigG, why do you always write "Junckers" instead of "Juncker"? His name is the latter. I've just noticed you always do it
    Maybe he's a WW2 aircraft aficionado :)
    We've probably all heard this one, but it's a good'un.

    "In 1942," he says, "the situation was really tough. The Germans had a very strong air force. I remember, " he continues, "one day I was protecting the bombers and suddenly, out of the clouds, these fokkers appeared.

    (At this point, several of the children giggle.)

    I looked up, and right above me was one of them. I aimed at him and shot him down. They were swarming. I immediately realized that there was another fokker behind me."

    At this instant the girls in the auditorium start to giggle and boys start to laugh. The teacher stands up and says, "I think I should point out that 'Fokker' was the name of the German-Dutch aircraft company"

    "That's true," says the pilot, "but these fokkers were flying Messerschmidts."
This discussion has been closed.