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  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154
    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    I suspect today's events have ensured the Conservatives will be in Government for the next five years and maybe for the next decade. It's hard to see whatever happens on Saturday how Boris won't win a majority at the next GE which will hypothetically take us to 2025.

    I have considerable reservations about his "tsunami of Tory ideas" and suspect his tax cutting lunacy will eventually lead to a mountain of debt and a recession of some severity but the question will be how the Opposition will re-define itself in the early 2020s and the degree to which that transformation will be complete by 2025.

    I could imagine environmental themes gaining more attention with time and it may be a more overtly pro-environment (not Green) movement which may be Labour or the LDs or an amalgam will emerge. It may also be the benefits of leaving the EU will look exaggerated with time and while that may not translate into a desire to rejoin, it may instigate a form of buyer's remorse.

    All things pass and I suspect in 2025 we could be looking at a very different political environment but I am to be honest quite disheartened this evening. In hindsight I don't think there's anything the anti-Conservative forces could have done once the ComRes poll showed Boris winning a majority. From that point his election as Conservative leader was guaranteed.

    Were he facing a more astute and popular Opposition leader I think his obvious limitations would be exposed but he has the ideal opponent in Corbyn who he can verbally wrong-foot with ease.

    Johnson also has had, as Blair and Thatcher had in their time, more than his share of luck. That will run out one time and perhaps spectacularly but he is the dominant political figure of the moment.

    It is worth reflecting that should Johnson win an election, Corbyn is finished. It is hard to imagine his replacement will be as bad or as extreme, although the left, having lost the shaky grasp they had on reality, talk about Long Bailey and Pidcock as though they might someday be capable of running something.

    So paradoxically a modest general election win might well be bad news for Johnson.

    As for your suspicions about his tax cuts, I can only admire your optimism. I don’t have suspicions so much as certainties.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,245
    justin124 said:

    As an act of sweet revenge, I wonder whether the DUP might now be inclined to support a VNOC - and even be prepared to install Corbyn as PM on a short term basis. Were I in their position I would contemplate that .

    Still not enough, Corbyn needs LD and Independent MPs support too as well as that of the DUP and SNP and Plaid and they won't provide it and if the Boris Deal fails the DUP will stick with the Tories anyway
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,753
    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    No, a hard border would have happened if we went to No Deal, at least from the Irish side.

    What we have today is a formal arrangement to keep Northern Ireland in the UK and UK customs area while avoiding a hard border with the Republic of Ireland

    The fact that you need to proclaim that NI is staying in the UK is noteworthy. But NI will also be bound by EU rules whereas the UK won't be. That was Boris' big win. Why you are so happy

    And so there has been a formal separation between Great Britain and the island of Ireland.

    Something changed and what changed is that NI will align with the EU more closely and Great Britain much less so.

    The fact that the deal has been agreed and the backstop junked is the clue you should follow up on.
    And had NI not aligned more closely with the EU and had a hard border with the Republic of Ireland then a majority of Northern Irish voters would likely have voted to Leave the UK completely and join the Republic of Ireland
    Yes exactly! Finally! So instead they've got an aligned island of Ireland. It's win win for the nationalists.
    No as Northern Ireland stays in the UK without a hard border making Irish unity likely, so still the Nationalists aim is defeated
    It separates NI from GB. As your email from CCHQ explained to you today.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    edited October 2019
    Alistair said:

    The Democrats walked out of the meeting, in protest of Trump’s insults. Speaking to reporters afterward, Pelosi said, “I think now we have to pray for his health, because this was a very serious meltdown on the part of the president.”


    As the evidence mounts of Trump’s abuses and obstructions, will some Republican senators see the impeachment process as an opportunity to rid themselves of a president that they must be regarding as increasingly dangerous? A few weeks ago, the question would have been asinine. Now it’s, at the very least, not implausible.

    https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2019/10/trump-syria-turkey-meltdown.html

    The Republicans said very much the same about Pelosi funnily enough
    She needs to stop ducking a vote on formalizing impeachment proceedings, until that trump is free to avoid subpoenas etc without sanction
    No he's not. That's something he just made up. The House has full over sight powers at all times.

    There is no "we are starting investigation of material to decided if we will hold an impeachment vote" step to vote on.
    But no impeachment until they vote to initiate it
    Why haven't the house subpoenad his tax returns if they have legally enforceable oversight?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,152
    justin124 said:

    As an act of sweet revenge, I wonder whether the DUP might now be inclined to support a VNOC - and even be prepared to install Corbyn as PM on a short term basis. Were I in their position I would contemplate that .

    That would be quite a plan... ;)
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900

    Jim Fitzpatrick is a yes and thinks 20 labour MPs could vote yes but are undecided

    Oho, is that new or I missed it earlier?
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    RobD said:

    justin124 said:

    As an act of sweet revenge, I wonder whether the DUP might now be inclined to support a VNOC - and even be prepared to install Corbyn as PM on a short term basis. Were I in their position I would contemplate that .

    I doubt they would ever do that given his past associations.
    But their bitterness towards Johnson might override that.At the last minute, perhaps the LDs and ChangeUK might rethink their positions too.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,245
    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    No, a hard border would have happened if we went to No Deal, at least from the Irish side.

    What we have today is a formal arrangement to keep Northern Ireland in the UK and UK customs area while avoiding a hard border with the Republic of Ireland

    The fact that you need to proclaim that NI is staying in the UK is noteworthy. But NI will also be bound by EU rules whereas the UK won't be. That was Boris' big win. Why you are so happy

    And so there has been a formal separation between Great Britain and the island of Ireland.

    Something changed and what changed is that NI will align with the EU more closely and Great Britain much less so.

    The fact that the deal has been agreed and the backstop junked is the clue you should follow up on.
    And had NI not aligned more closely with the EU and had a hard border with the Republic of Ireland then a majority of Northern Irish voters would likely have voted to Leave the UK completely and join the Republic of Ireland
    Yes exactly! Finally! So instead they've got an aligned island of Ireland. It's win win for the nationalists.
    No as Northern Ireland stays in the UK without a hard border making Irish unity likely, so still the Nationalists aim is defeated
    It separates NI from GB. As your email from CCHQ explained to you today.
    Which it already has been on issues like abortion, gay marriage etc but still politically is in the UK
  • justin124 said:

    As an act of sweet revenge, I wonder whether the DUP might now be inclined to support a VNOC - and even be prepared to install Corbyn as PM on a short term basis. Were I in their position I would contemplate that .

    Of course you would
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Andrew said:

    Jim Fitzpatrick is a yes and thinks 20 labour MPs could vote yes but are undecided

    Oho, is that new or I missed it earlier?
    New, I think
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,269
    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    No, a hard border would have happened if we went to No Deal, at least from the Irish side.

    What we have today is a formal arrangement to keep Northern Ireland in the UK and UK customs area while avoiding a hard border with the Republic of Ireland

    The fact that you need to proclaim that NI is staying in the UK is noteworthy. But NI will also be bound by EU rules whereas the UK won't be. That was Boris' big win. Why you are so happy

    And so there has been a formal separation between Great Britain and the island of Ireland.

    Something changed and what changed is that NI will align with the EU more closely and Great Britain much less so.

    The fact that the deal has been agreed and the backstop junked is the clue you should follow up on.
    And had NI not aligned more closely with the EU and had a hard border with the Republic of Ireland then a majority of Northern Irish voters would likely have voted to Leave the UK completely and join the Republic of Ireland
    Yes exactly! Finally! So instead they've got an aligned island of Ireland. It's win win for the nationalists.
    No as Northern Ireland stays in the UK without a hard border making Irish unity likely, so still the Nationalists aim is defeated
    It separates NI from GB. As your email from CCHQ explained to you today.
    I admire your persistence. But it’s no use. @HYUFD is now an expert on Northern Ireland having just visited it. He doesn’t even have to have read the Protocol to know what it says or means.
  • justin124 said:

    As an act of sweet revenge, I wonder whether the DUP might now be inclined to support a VNOC - and even be prepared to install Corbyn as PM on a short term basis. Were I in their position I would contemplate that .

    If they've any sense they'll go nuclear between MV4 passing and the 2nd Reading of the WAIB.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,875
    Anecdotal - Both leavers and remainers I've spoken to think Corbyn is an absolute joke.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    HYUFD said:

    FF43 said:

    Gabs2 said:

    Remainers and Faragists are really trying to spin things hard but I don't see any of their arguments really having punch. When I was arguing for May's deal, it was hard to defend the lack of consent in the backstop. And while I want the UK in the Customs Union, I could see how the inability to sign our own trade deals was powerful to Leavers.

    Now though, there is not much the opponents have. They are trying to push this "carving up the UK" line but it doesn't stick. NI has always been constitutionally in the UK but a more mixed status pratically: British but with the right to Irish passports, represented at Westminster but with her own law, representative democracy but with extra double majority requirements for Irish nationalists. This deal continues that grand tradition: under UK law but with regulatory exceptions for agrifood and industrial goods, checks on goods but not personal possessions, part of UK trade deals but with access to the single market. There is no sizable shift, even while Remainers try to play it up, because it is the only line they have.

    It's an arrangement that is probably unworkable for Northern Ireland as it stands. Admittedly that was always the case with the Irish backstop. But we have moved from it being the worst case if all else fails to it being the actual policy. It's an arrangement that, unless changed, offers so little to the rest of the UK, we might literally have no deal with the EU in a year's time.

    I am struggling to see any benefit to this deal beyond avoiding an immediate chaotic exit.
    It takes GB out of the EU, the single market and customs union, it ends free movement from the EU and lets us do our own trade deals and it avoids a hard border in Ireland
    Being inside or outside the SM and CU are functional means. Either they help us achieve our objectives - for example better market access for our goods - or they hinder them. It's nonsense for the absence of them to be claimed as objectives in their own right without any reference to any benefits that might accrue.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,245
    justin124 said:

    RobD said:

    justin124 said:

    As an act of sweet revenge, I wonder whether the DUP might now be inclined to support a VNOC - and even be prepared to install Corbyn as PM on a short term basis. Were I in their position I would contemplate that .

    I doubt they would ever do that given his past associations.
    But their bitterness towards Johnson might override that.At the last minute, perhaps the LDs and ChangeUK might rethink their positions too.
    It would require Corbyn to commit to the DUP either to keep the whole UK in the EU or the whole UK in the Single Market and Customs Union but the former would see Labour MPs from Leave seats rebel and the latter would not be enough for the LDs or CUK as it is still Brexit
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,152
    Pulpstar said:

    Anecdotal - Both leavers and remainers I've spoken to think Corbyn is an absolute joke.

    At last!

    Something to unite LEAVE and REMAIN! :D
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786

    justin124 said:

    As an act of sweet revenge, I wonder whether the DUP might now be inclined to support a VNOC - and even be prepared to install Corbyn as PM on a short term basis. Were I in their position I would contemplate that .

    If they've any sense they'll go nuclear between MV4 passing and the 2nd Reading of the WAIB.
    And lose all that money for NI?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154
    edited October 2019
    justin124 said:

    RobD said:

    justin124 said:

    As an act of sweet revenge, I wonder whether the DUP might now be inclined to support a VNOC - and even be prepared to install Corbyn as PM on a short term basis. Were I in their position I would contemplate that .

    I doubt they would ever do that given his past associations.
    But their bitterness towards Johnson might override that.At the last minute, perhaps the LDs and ChangeUK might rethink their positions too.
    I would say this is wishful thinking. The simple facts are - and these are what Labour members cannot seem to get their head around - that Corbyn is more hated, distrusted and despised than Johnson and Labour are more hated, distrusted and despised than the Conservatives.

    In the circumstances that’s both an extraordinary achievement and deeply shocking, so I can understand why this reality is one they refuse to face. But it also means there is no way a non-Conservative government can be formed without an election. Possibly not even with one given the formidable barriers to a Labour majority.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,875
    I'll offer 2-1 on the DUP sticking Corbyn into bat if anyone wants ?
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976
    nichomar said:

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    I bet poor Kay's suffering with those 5am starts! :D
    Shes really not very good
    Nearly 60 and put on Breakfast... It's almost as though she's upset someone at SKY! :D
    Well that about sums up your attitude to life, it was a job swap between Sarah Jane me and her, for whatever reason the fact that she is nearly 60 is a disgrace to use as any explanation for this change.
    Really? Which of their jobs did you end up with?

    Also, who is Sarah Jane?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,245
    edited October 2019
    FF43 said:

    HYUFD said:

    FF43 said:

    Gabs2 said:

    Remainers and Faragists are really trying to spin things hard but I don't see any of their arguments really having punch. When I was arguing for May's deal, it was hard to defend the lack of consent in the backstop. And while I want the UK in the Customs Union, I could see how the inability to sign our own trade deals was powerful to Leavers.

    Now though, there is not much the opponents have. They are trying to push this "carving up the UK" line but it doesn't stick. NI has always been constitutionally in the UK but a more mixed status pratically: British but with the right to Irish passports, represented at Westminster but with her own law, representative democracy but with extra double majority requirements for Irish nationalists. This deal continues that grand tradition: under UK law but with regulatory exceptions for agrifood and industrial goods, checks on goods but not personal possessions, part of UK trade deals but with access to the single market. There is no sizable shift, even while Remainers try to play it up, because it is the only line they have.

    It's an arrangement that is probably unworkable for Northern Ireland as it stands. Admittedly that was always the case with the Irish backstop. But we have moved from it being the worst case if all else fails to it being the actual policy. It's an arrangement that, unless changed, offers so little to the rest of the UK, we might literally have no deal with the EU in a year's time.

    I am struggling to see any benefit to this deal beyond avoiding an immediate chaotic exit.
    It takes GB out of the EU, the single market and customs union, it ends free movement from the EU and lets us do our own trade deals and it avoids a hard border in Ireland
    Being inside or outside the SM and CU are functional means. Either they help us achieve our objectives - for example better market access for our goods - or they hinder them. It's nonsense for the absence of them to be claimed as objectives in their own right without any reference to any benefits that might accrue.
    The benefits for Leavers of leaving them are ending free movement from the EU and doing our own free trade deals
  • TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Gabs2 said:

    Remainers and Faragists are really trying to spin things hard but I don't see any of their arguments really having punch. When I was arguing for May's deal, it was hard to defend the lack of consent in the backstop. And while I want the UK in the Customs Union, I could see how the inability to sign our own trade deals was powerful to Leavers.

    Now though, there is not much the opponents have. They are trying to push this "carving up the UK" line but it doesn't stick. NI has always been constitutionally in the UK but a more mixed status pratically: British but with the right to Irish passports, represented at Westminster but with her own law, representative democracy but with extra double majority requirements for Irish nationalists. This deal continues that grand tradition: under UK law but with regulatory exceptions for agrifood and industrial goods, checks on goods but not personal possessions, part of UK trade deals but with access to the single market. There is no sizable shift, even while Remainers try to play it up, because it is the only line they have.

    There will be a border down the Irish Sea. As explained by that arch remainer Nigel Farage today in Brussels.

    That is a bold move for the Conservative and Unionist Party.
    What party ???

    I don't think I've ever seen that party on any ballot paper I've had.

    People concerned about the Unionist aspect should have taken note of that.
    The party that Jacob Rees Mogg is a member of. The same party that outlawed the creation of a border down the Irish Sea.

    That party.
    This Jacob Rees-Mogg, the Conservative candidate in North-East Somerset not the Conservative and Unionist:

    https://www.bathnes.gov.uk/sites/default/files/sitedocuments/Your-Council/Elections/ukpge_statement_of_persons_nominated_nes.pdf

    My point is relevant and perhaps not realised in NI or Scotland for that matter.

    In England its the Conservative party and the Unionist bit doesn't seem to be of much interest.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,661
    This is a useful summary of the key changes in the Boris WA compared with Theresa's.
    https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/10/boris-johnsons-brexit-deal-eight-key-changes/
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,875
    GIN1138 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Anecdotal - Both leavers and remainers I've spoken to think Corbyn is an absolute joke.

    At last!

    Something to unite LEAVE and REMAIN! :D
    Like those extinction rebellion pillocks on the tube today. See we can build a better future together based on mutual loathing of arseholes.

    Farage won't live that tweet down today.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    Pulpstar said:

    I'll offer 2-1 on the DUP sticking Corbyn into bat if anyone wants ?

    You can give me 2000 to 1 .

    Absolutely no chance .
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Gabs2 said:

    Remainers and Faragists are really trying to spin things hard but I don't see any of their arguments really having punch. When I was arguing for May's deal, it was hard to defend the lack of consent in the backstop. And while I want the UK in the Customs Union, I could see how the inability to sign our own trade deals was powerful to Leavers.

    Now though, there is not much the opponents have. They are trying to push this "carving up the UK" line but it doesn't stick. NI has always been constitutionally in the UK but a more mixed status pratically: British but with the right to Irish passports, represented at Westminster but with her own law, representative democracy but with extra double majority requirements for Irish nationalists. This deal continues that grand tradition: under UK law but with regulatory exceptions for agrifood and industrial goods, checks on goods but not personal possessions, part of UK trade deals but with access to the single market. There is no sizable shift, even while Remainers try to play it up, because it is the only line they have.

    There will be a border down the Irish Sea. As explained by that arch remainer Nigel Farage today in Brussels.

    That is a bold move for the Conservative and Unionist Party.
    What party ???

    I don't think I've ever seen that party on any ballot paper I've had.

    People concerned about the Unionist aspect should have taken note of that.
    The party that Jacob Rees Mogg is a member of. The same party that outlawed the creation of a border down the Irish Sea.

    That party.
    This Jacob Rees-Mogg, the Conservative candidate in North-East Somerset not the Conservative and Unionist:

    https://www.bathnes.gov.uk/sites/default/files/sitedocuments/Your-Council/Elections/ukpge_statement_of_persons_nominated_nes.pdf

    My point is relevant and perhaps not realised in NI or Scotland for that matter.

    In England its the Conservative party and the Unionist bit doesn't seem to be of much interest.
    The full, official name of the party is ‘the Conservative and Unionist Party’ but since 1925 it has generally used ‘Conservative’ only in England.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,817
    geoffw said:

    This is a useful summary of the key changes in the Boris WA compared with Theresa's.
    https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/10/boris-johnsons-brexit-deal-eight-key-changes/

    Wait, the WA can be renegotiated? :o
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,401
    The sum total has some Democrats envisioning something that seemed unlikely only a few weeks ago – a race for the nomination that comes down to Warren or Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) on the left, with an opening for Buttigieg to supplant Biden as the party’s centrist standard-bearer.

    https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/466202-buttigieg-emerges-as-new-threat-to-biden-after-debate
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163
    Cyclefree said:

    Is he right though? Has the actual withdrawal agreement been kept secret / unpublished?

    That could be a problem.
    He’s not. All the documents are available to read. I have read them. There is a link to them in the header.
    :+1:
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,476

    justin124 said:

    As an act of sweet revenge, I wonder whether the DUP might now be inclined to support a VNOC - and even be prepared to install Corbyn as PM on a short term basis. Were I in their position I would contemplate that .

    If they've any sense they'll go nuclear between MV4 passing and the 2nd Reading of the WAIB.
    And lose all that money for NI?
    They don't seem to be bothered by cheques on the border.

    Bloody minded, self punishing hardship is the bread and butter of Presbyterianism.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,152
    edited October 2019
    Pulpstar said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Anecdotal - Both leavers and remainers I've spoken to think Corbyn is an absolute joke.

    At last!

    Something to unite LEAVE and REMAIN! :D
    Like those extinction rebellion pillocks on the tube today. See we can build a better future together based on mutual loathing of arseholes.

    Farage won't live that tweet down today.
    Yeah, I think Nigel's fox, whether it be inside or outside the Westminster hen house, has been well and truly shot! :D
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    edited October 2019

    Alistair said:

    The Democrats walked out of the meeting, in protest of Trump’s insults. Speaking to reporters afterward, Pelosi said, “I think now we have to pray for his health, because this was a very serious meltdown on the part of the president.”


    As the evidence mounts of Trump’s abuses and obstructions, will some Republican senators see the impeachment process as an opportunity to rid themselves of a president that they must be regarding as increasingly dangerous? A few weeks ago, the question would have been asinine. Now it’s, at the very least, not implausible.

    https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2019/10/trump-syria-turkey-meltdown.html

    The Republicans said very much the same about Pelosi funnily enough
    She needs to stop ducking a vote on formalizing impeachment proceedings, until that trump is free to avoid subpoenas etc without sanction
    No he's not. That's something he just made up. The House has full over sight powers at all times.

    There is no "we are starting investigation of material to decided if we will hold an impeachment vote" step to vote on.
    But no impeachment until they vote to initiate it
    Why haven't the house subpoenad his tax returns if they have legally enforceable oversight?
    ? They have. It has been legally enforced.

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-tax-returns-court-house-impeachment-congress-financial-records-a9152291.html
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154
    RobD said:

    geoffw said:

    This is a useful summary of the key changes in the Boris WA compared with Theresa's.
    https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/10/boris-johnsons-brexit-deal-eight-key-changes/

    Wait, the WA can be renegotiated? :o
    Of course, if the EU are being offered by the British government what they wanted all along.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,584
    edited October 2019
    geoffw said:

    This is a useful summary of the key changes in the Boris WA compared with Theresa's.
    https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/10/boris-johnsons-brexit-deal-eight-key-changes/

    Useful if you're a subscriber.

    The Institute for Government has this:

    https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainers/brexit-deal-withdrawal-agreement
  • surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,469
    ydoethur said:

    justin124 said:

    RobD said:

    justin124 said:

    As an act of sweet revenge, I wonder whether the DUP might now be inclined to support a VNOC - and even be prepared to install Corbyn as PM on a short term basis. Were I in their position I would contemplate that .

    I doubt they would ever do that given his past associations.
    But their bitterness towards Johnson might override that.At the last minute, perhaps the LDs and ChangeUK might rethink their positions too.
    I would say this is wishful thinking. The simple facts are - and these are what Labour members cannot seem to get their head around - that Corbyn is more hated, distrusted and despised than Johnson and Labour are more hated, distrusted and despised than the Conservatives.

    In the circumstances that’s both an extraordinary achievement and deeply shocking, so I can understand why this reality is one they refuse to face. But it also means there is no way a non-Conservative government can be formed without an election. Possibly not even with one given the formidable barriers to a Labour majority.
    Are you saying that the Lib Dems will accept Brexit ? A Brexit with a Deal is also a Brexit.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,851
    RobD said:

    geoffw said:

    This is a useful summary of the key changes in the Boris WA compared with Theresa's.
    https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/10/boris-johnsons-brexit-deal-eight-key-changes/

    Wait, the WA can be renegotiated? :o
    Alright, no need to rub it in! :)

    Though of course that's cover for some people to vote against - we really can get other changes.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,817

    geoffw said:

    This is a useful summary of the key changes in the Boris WA compared with Theresa's.
    https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/10/boris-johnsons-brexit-deal-eight-key-changes/

    Useful if you're a subscriber.
    Look at it in incognito mode.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    RobD said:

    geoffw said:

    This is a useful summary of the key changes in the Boris WA compared with Theresa's.
    https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/10/boris-johnsons-brexit-deal-eight-key-changes/

    Wait, the WA can be renegotiated? :o
    Well yes. Once you reverse your self some something that was totally unnaceptable (border down the Irish Sea) all sorts of things go back on the table.
  • surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,469
    HYUFD said:

    FF43 said:

    HYUFD said:

    FF43 said:

    Gabs2 said:

    Remainers and Faragists are really trying to spin things hard but I don't see any of their arguments really having punch. When I was arguing for May's deal, it was hard to defend the lack of consent in the backstop. And while I want the UK in the Customs Union, I could see how the inability to sign our own trade deals was powerful to Leavers.

    Now though, there is not much the opponents have. They are trying to push this "carving up the UK" line but it doesn't stick. NI has always been constitutionally in the UK but a more mixed status pratically: British but with the right to Irish passports, represented at Westminster but with her own law, representative democracy but with extra double majority requirements for Irish nationalists. This deal continues that grand tradition: under UK law but with regulatory exceptions for agrifood and industrial goods, checks on goods but not personal possessions, part of UK trade deals but with access to the single market. There is no sizable shift, even while Remainers try to play it up, because it is the only line they have.

    It's an arrangement that is probably unworkable for Northern Ireland as it stands. Admittedly that was always the case with the Irish backstop. But we have moved from it being the worst case if all else fails to it being the actual policy. It's an arrangement that, unless changed, offers so little to the rest of the UK, we might literally have no deal with the EU in a year's time.

    I am struggling to see any benefit to this deal beyond avoiding an immediate chaotic exit.
    It takes GB out of the EU, the single market and customs union, it ends free movement from the EU and lets us do our own trade deals and it avoids a hard border in Ireland
    Being inside or outside the SM and CU are functional means. Either they help us achieve our objectives - for example better market access for our goods - or they hinder them. It's nonsense for the absence of them to be claimed as objectives in their own right without any reference to any benefits that might accrue.
    The benefits for Leavers of leaving them are ending free movement from the EU and doing our own free trade deals
    Except Northen Ireland business will have to pay VAT first if importing from the rUK and claim it back as a rebate. But not if they buy from Ireland.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Pulpstar said:

    Anecdotal - Both leavers and remainers I've spoken to think Corbyn is an absolute joke.

    I work with a bloke who was a fan of Corbyn - emphasis on the was.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Alistair said:

    Alistair said:

    The Democrats walked out of the meeting, in protest of Trump’s insults. Speaking to reporters afterward, Pelosi said, “I think now we have to pray for his health, because this was a very serious meltdown on the part of the president.”


    As the evidence mounts of Trump’s abuses and obstructions, will some Republican senators see the impeachment process as an opportunity to rid themselves of a president that they must be regarding as increasingly dangerous? A few weeks ago, the question would have been asinine. Now it’s, at the very least, not implausible.

    https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2019/10/trump-syria-turkey-meltdown.html

    The Republicans said very much the same about Pelosi funnily enough
    She needs to stop ducking a vote on formalizing impeachment proceedings, until that trump is free to avoid subpoenas etc without sanction
    No he's not. That's something he just made up. The House has full over sight powers at all times.

    There is no "we are starting investigation of material to decided if we will hold an impeachment vote" step to vote on.
    But no impeachment until they vote to initiate it
    Why haven't the house subpoenad his tax returns if they have legally enforceable oversight?
    ? They have. It has been legally enforced.

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-tax-returns-court-house-impeachment-congress-financial-records-a9152291.html
    So they have
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,245

    HYUFD said:

    FF43 said:

    HYUFD said:

    FF43 said:

    Gabs2 said:

    Remainers and Faragists are really trying to spin things hard but I don't see any of their arguments really having punch. When I was arguing for May's deal, it was hard to defend the lack of consent in the backstop. And while I want the UK in the Customs Union, I could see how the inability to sign our own trade deals was powerful to Leavers.

    Now though, there is not much the opponents have. They are trying to push this "carving up the UK" line but it doesn't stick. NI has always been constitutionally in the UK but a more mixed status pratically: British but with the right to Irish passports, represented at Westminster but with her own law, representative democracy but with extra double majority requirements for Irish nationalists. This deal continues that grand tradition: under UK law but with regulatory exceptions for agrifood and industrial goods, checks on goods but not personal possessions, part of UK trade deals but with access to the single market. There is no sizable shift, even while Remainers try to play it up, because it is the only line they have.

    It's an arrangement that is probably unworkable for Northern Ireland as it stands. Admittedly that was always the case with the Irish backstop. But we have moved from it being the worst case if all else fails to it being the actual policy. It's an arrangement that, unless changed, offers so little to the rest of the UK, we might literally have no deal with the EU in a year's time.

    I am struggling to see any benefit to this deal beyond avoiding an immediate chaotic exit.
    It takes GB out of the EU, the single market and customs union, it ends free movement from the EU and lets us do our own trade deals and it avoids a hard border in Ireland
    Being inside or outside the SM and CU are functional means. Either they help us achieve our objectives - for example better market access for our goods - or they hinder them. It's nonsense for the absence of them to be claimed as objectives in their own right without any reference to any benefits that might accrue.
    The benefits for Leavers of leaving them are ending free movement from the EU and doing our own free trade deals
    Except Northen Ireland business will have to pay VAT first if importing from the rUK and claim it back as a rebate. But not if they buy from Ireland.
    So in reality no extra costs given the rebate
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154

    ydoethur said:

    justin124 said:

    RobD said:

    justin124 said:

    As an act of sweet revenge, I wonder whether the DUP might now be inclined to support a VNOC - and even be prepared to install Corbyn as PM on a short term basis. Were I in their position I would contemplate that .

    I doubt they would ever do that given his past associations.
    But their bitterness towards Johnson might override that.At the last minute, perhaps the LDs and ChangeUK might rethink their positions too.
    I would say this is wishful thinking. The simple facts are - and these are what Labour members cannot seem to get their head around - that Corbyn is more hated, distrusted and despised than Johnson and Labour are more hated, distrusted and despised than the Conservatives.

    In the circumstances that’s both an extraordinary achievement and deeply shocking, so I can understand why this reality is one they refuse to face. But it also means there is no way a non-Conservative government can be formed without an election. Possibly not even with one given the formidable barriers to a Labour majority.
    Are you saying that the Lib Dems will accept Brexit ? A Brexit with a Deal is also a Brexit.
    The point is that the Liberal Democrats do not trust Corbyn to stop Brexit, and know they will not soon be forgiven if they enable a double whammy of geriatric nutter in Downing Street and departure from the EU.

    It is for the same reason the SNP won’t support him, although helpfully there he has categorically ruled out the one thing they would be willing to give him support in return for.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    Hilarious watching old video of Bozo saying how terrible checks would be and a border in the Irish Sea .

    I appreciate Leavers think he’s the next Messiah but let’s be blunt he’s a pathological liar who would sell his grannie to become PM .

    Bozo doesn’t do national interest he just does his interest.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,245
    Floater said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Anecdotal - Both leavers and remainers I've spoken to think Corbyn is an absolute joke.

    I work with a bloke who was a fan of Corbyn - emphasis on the was.
    Not one demographic group now prefers Corbyn to Boris as PM

    https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1184465365956550666?s=20
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,661

    geoffw said:

    This is a useful summary of the key changes in the Boris WA compared with Theresa's.
    https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/10/boris-johnsons-brexit-deal-eight-key-changes/

    Useful if you're a subscriber.

    The Institute for Government has this:

    https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainers/brexit-deal-withdrawal-agreement
    No. I have just read it in a "private window" on Firefox.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,476
    nico67 said:

    Hilarious watching old video of Bozo saying how terrible checks would be and a border in the Irish Sea .

    I appreciate Leavers think he’s the next Messiah but let’s be blunt he’s a pathological liar who would sell his grannie to become PM .

    Bozo doesn’t do national interest he just does his interest.

    It is quite something!

    https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/1184904527226515456?s=19
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,401
    Floater said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Anecdotal - Both leavers and remainers I've spoken to think Corbyn is an absolute joke.

    I work with a bloke who was a fan of Corbyn - emphasis on the was.
    You work for John McDonnell?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154
    nico67 said:

    Hilarious watching old video of Bozo saying how terrible checks would be and a border in the Irish Sea .

    I appreciate Leavers think he’s the next Messiah but let’s be blunt he’s a pathological liar who would sell his grannie to become PM .

    Bozo doesn’t do national interest he just does his interest.

    I think that’s a bit unfair.

    He wouldn’t demand money for her.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,875
    18-24 yr olds 32-29 Johnson

    Oh dear oh dear oh dear. That's quite funny.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,584
    geoffw said:

    geoffw said:

    This is a useful summary of the key changes in the Boris WA compared with Theresa's.
    https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/10/boris-johnsons-brexit-deal-eight-key-changes/

    Useful if you're a subscriber.

    The Institute for Government has this:

    https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainers/brexit-deal-withdrawal-agreement
    No. I have just read it in a "private window" on Firefox.
    Ah thanks, yes, that works in a Safari private window too. I assume they let you have a free view and control it by cookies... which doesn't work too well for private windows.

    Thanks, I will have a read.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Alistair said:

    Alistair said:

    The Democrats walked out of the meeting, in protest of Trump’s insults. Speaking to reporters afterward, Pelosi said, “I think now we have to pray for his health, because this was a very serious meltdown on the part of the president.”


    As the evidence mounts of Trump’s abuses and obstructions, will some Republican senators see the impeachment process as an opportunity to rid themselves of a president that they must be regarding as increasingly dangerous? A few weeks ago, the question would have been asinine. Now it’s, at the very least, not implausible.

    https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2019/10/trump-syria-turkey-meltdown.html

    The Republicans said very much the same about Pelosi funnily enough
    She needs to stop ducking a vote on formalizing impeachment proceedings, until that trump is free to avoid subpoenas etc without sanction
    No he's not. That's something he just made up. The House has full over sight powers at all times.

    There is no "we are starting investigation of material to decided if we will hold an impeachment vote" step to vote on.
    But no impeachment until they vote to initiate it
    Why haven't the house subpoenad his tax returns if they have legally enforceable oversight?
    ? They have. It has been legally enforced.

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-tax-returns-court-house-impeachment-congress-financial-records-a9152291.html
    So they have
    The Trump Whitehouse is spewing a whole lot of smoke about the impeachment process.

    Here is the entirety of what the Constitution says about it in reference to the House of Representatives.

    "The House of Representatives shall chuse their Speaker and other Officers; and shall
    have the sole Power of Impeachment."

    That's it. All Impeachment is is a simple vote in the House of Representatives.

    Everything else about the process is decided by the House itself.
  • Pulpstar said:

    Anecdotal - Both leavers and remainers I've spoken to think Corbyn is an absolute joke.

    JICIPM?
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 21,965
    ydoethur said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Gabs2 said:

    Remainers and Faragists are really trying to spin things hard but I don't see any of their arguments really having punch. When I was arguing for May's deal, it was hard to defend the lack of consent in the backstop. And while I want the UK in the Customs Union, I could see how the inability to sign our own trade deals was powerful to Leavers.

    Now though, there is not much the opponents have. They are trying to push this "carving up the UK" line but it doesn't stick. NI has always been constitutionally in the UK but a more mixed status pratically: British but with the right to Irish passports, represented at Westminster but with her own law, representative democracy but with extra double majority requirements for Irish nationalists. This deal continues that grand tradition: under UK law but with regulatory exceptions for agrifood and industrial goods, checks on goods but not personal possessions, part of UK trade deals but with access to the single market. There is no sizable shift, even while Remainers try to play it up, because it is the only line they have.

    There will be a border down the Irish Sea. As explained by that arch remainer Nigel Farage today in Brussels.

    That is a bold move for the Conservative and Unionist Party.
    What party ???

    I don't think I've ever seen that party on any ballot paper I've had.

    People concerned about the Unionist aspect should have taken note of that.
    The party that Jacob Rees Mogg is a member of. The same party that outlawed the creation of a border down the Irish Sea.

    That party.
    This Jacob Rees-Mogg, the Conservative candidate in North-East Somerset not the Conservative and Unionist:

    https://www.bathnes.gov.uk/sites/default/files/sitedocuments/Your-Council/Elections/ukpge_statement_of_persons_nominated_nes.pdf

    My point is relevant and perhaps not realised in NI or Scotland for that matter.

    In England its the Conservative party and the Unionist bit doesn't seem to be of much interest.
    The full, official name of the party is ‘the Conservative and Unionist Party’ but since 1925 it has generally used ‘Conservative’ only in England.
    I remember when the LibDems started off as the 'Social and Liberal Democrats' and David Owen referred to them as 'The Salads'.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,476
    Pulpstar said:

    18-24 yr olds 32-29 Johnson

    Oh dear oh dear oh dear. That's quite funny.

    Being lukewarm on Brexit has killed Corbyn with the young.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,476
    Foxy said:

    Pulpstar said:

    18-24 yr olds 32-29 Johnson

    Oh dear oh dear oh dear. That's quite funny.

    Being lukewarm on Brexit has killed Corbyn with the young, those Corbynites are increasingly Green and LD now..
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    Foxy said:

    nico67 said:

    Hilarious watching old video of Bozo saying how terrible checks would be and a border in the Irish Sea .

    I appreciate Leavers think he’s the next Messiah but let’s be blunt he’s a pathological liar who would sell his grannie to become PM .

    Bozo doesn’t do national interest he just does his interest.

    It is quite something!

    https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/1184904527226515456?s=19
    But I’m afraid there is no where else to go, move on and seek closest possible relationships with EU push for EEA get rid of corbyn and look to the future. It’s an actual better use of energy than continuing the current battle. Is there an alternative?
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,800
    A quick look at Canada with just four days before polling in their GE and the two rolling polls show different outcomes - one has the Liberals one point head and the other has the Conservatives one point ahead so in effect the same outcome, a dead heat.

    The more interesting poll is a Leger poll in Quebec which shows the Liberals and Bloc Quebecois tied on 31% with the Conservatives on 16% and the NDP on 14%.

    Since 2015 the Liberals are down five points and BQ up twelve points. The Conservatives are fractionally lower and NDP down by eleven. There's very little riding polling out there but what I've seen suggests BQ could well take seats from the Liberals, NDP and the Tories.

    The 2015 Liberal win was predicated on 96 gains from the Conservatives, mainly in Ontario and the east and 51 gains from the NDP. The key for the Tories will be to regain ground in Ontario and in Atlantic Canada and simply piling up huge majorities in the Prairies isn't going to help Scheer that much.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Go go national labour!
  • surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,469
    nichomar said:

    Foxy said:

    nico67 said:

    Hilarious watching old video of Bozo saying how terrible checks would be and a border in the Irish Sea .

    I appreciate Leavers think he’s the next Messiah but let’s be blunt he’s a pathological liar who would sell his grannie to become PM .

    Bozo doesn’t do national interest he just does his interest.

    It is quite something!

    https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/1184904527226515456?s=19
    But I’m afraid there is no where else to go, move on and seek closest possible relationships with EU push for EEA get rid of corbyn and look to the future. It’s an actual better use of energy than continuing the current battle. Is there an alternative?
    YES ! Beat this shit of a deal. Go for 2nd ref and REMAIN.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,401
    Foxy said:

    Pulpstar said:

    18-24 yr olds 32-29 Johnson

    Oh dear oh dear oh dear. That's quite funny.

    Being lukewarm on Brexit has killed Corbyn with the young.
    Still close though. More of them need to know about Jezza's all out efforts to help us leave the EU.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,476
    Alistair said:

    Alistair said:

    Alistair said:

    The Democrats walked out of the meeting, in protest of Trump’s insults. Speaking to reporters afterward, Pelosi said, “I think now we have to pray for his health, because this was a very serious meltdown on the part of the president.”


    As the evidence mounts of Trump’s abuses and obstructions, will some Republican senators see the impeachment process as an opportunity to rid themselves of a president that they must be regarding as increasingly dangerous? A few weeks ago, the question would have been asinine. Now it’s, at the very least, not implausible.

    https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2019/10/trump-syria-turkey-meltdown.html

    The Republicans said very much the same about Pelosi funnily enough
    She needs to stop ducking a vote on formalizing impeachment proceedings, until that trump is free to avoid subpoenas etc without sanction
    No he's not. That's something he just made up. The House has full over sight powers at all times.

    There is no "we are starting investigation of material to decided if we will hold an impeachment vote" step to vote on.
    But no impeachment until they vote to initiate it
    Why haven't the house subpoenad his tax returns if they have legally enforceable oversight?
    ? They have. It has been legally enforced.

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-tax-returns-court-house-impeachment-congress-financial-records-a9152291.html
    So they have
    The Trump Whitehouse is spewing a whole lot of smoke about the impeachment process.

    Here is the entirety of what the Constitution says about it in reference to the House of Representatives.

    "The House of Representatives shall chuse their Speaker and other Officers; and shall
    have the sole Power of Impeachment."

    That's it. All Impeachment is is a simple vote in the House of Representatives.

    Everything else about the process is decided by the House itself.
    Not quite. The SCOTUS decides what the Constitution means.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,350
    Pulpstar said:

    18-24 yr olds 32-29 Johnson

    Oh dear oh dear oh dear. That's quite funny.

    I trust Boris has his slot on the Pyramid Stage next year?
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,269
    ydoethur said:

    RobD said:

    geoffw said:

    This is a useful summary of the key changes in the Boris WA compared with Theresa's.
    https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/10/boris-johnsons-brexit-deal-eight-key-changes/

    Wait, the WA can be renegotiated? :o
    Of course, if the EU are being offered by the British government what they wanted all along.
    And the PM changes his red lines and agrees something which he said was wholly unacceptable only a few weeks ago.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 21,965
    HYUFD said:

    Floater said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Anecdotal - Both leavers and remainers I've spoken to think Corbyn is an absolute joke.

    I work with a bloke who was a fan of Corbyn - emphasis on the was.
    Not one demographic group now prefers Corbyn to Boris as PM

    https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1184465365956550666?s=20
    Thinking Bozo makes a better PM is different to preferring him as PM. Thatcher was clearly a better PM than Brown, but my preference would definitely be for the latter.
  • 15 days and counting down til the campaign to rejoin the EU starts. Save the bother, vote deal down and VoNC.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,350
    And Jeremy gets his Brexit......
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,661
    Though I abhor his politics I must say that there's something endearing about Corbyn's lack of guile. For instance his willingness to be interviewed in a pharmacy yesterday - something that would never happen with Blair.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483

    nichomar said:

    Foxy said:

    nico67 said:

    Hilarious watching old video of Bozo saying how terrible checks would be and a border in the Irish Sea .

    I appreciate Leavers think he’s the next Messiah but let’s be blunt he’s a pathological liar who would sell his grannie to become PM .

    Bozo doesn’t do national interest he just does his interest.

    It is quite something!

    https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/1184904527226515456?s=19
    But I’m afraid there is no where else to go, move on and seek closest possible relationships with EU push for EEA get rid of corbyn and look to the future. It’s an actual better use of energy than continuing the current battle. Is there an alternative?
    YES ! Beat this shit of a deal. Go for 2nd ref and REMAIN.
    Is it possible, all credit if they think it is.
  • Pulpstar said:

    18-24 yr olds 32-29 Johnson

    Oh dear oh dear oh dear. That's quite funny.

    And if Boris now cuts tuition fees ...
  • surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,469
    edited October 2019
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    FF43 said:

    HYUFD said:

    FF43 said:

    Gabs2 said:

    Remainers and Faragists are really trying to spin things hard but I don't see any of their arguments really having punch. When I was arguing for May's deal, it was hard to defend the lack of consent in the backstop. And while I want the UK in the Customs Union, I could see how the inability to sign our own trade deals was powerful to Leavers.

    Now though, there is not much the opponents have. They are trying to push this "carving up the UK" line but it doesn't stick. NI has always been constitutionally in the UK but a more mixed status pratically: British but with the right to Irish passports, represented at Westminster but with her own law, representative democracy but with extra double majority requirements for Irish nationalists. This deal continues that grand tradition: under UK law but with regulatory exceptions for agrifood and industrial goods, checks on goods but not personal possessions, part of UK trade deals but with access to the single market. There is no sizable shift, even while Remainers try to play it up, because it is the only line they have.

    It's an arrangement that is probably unworkable for Northern Ireland as it stands. Admittedly that was always the case with the Irish backstop. But we have moved from it being the worst case if all else fails to it being the actual policy. It's an arrangement that, unless changed, offers so little to the rest of the UK, we might literally have no deal with the EU in a year's time.

    I am struggling to see any benefit to this deal beyond avoiding an immediate chaotic exit.
    It takes GB out of the EU, the single market and customs union, it ends free movement from the EU and lets us do our own trade deals and it avoids a hard border in Ireland
    Being inside or outside the SM and CU are functional means. Either they help us achieve our objectives - for example better market access for our goods - or they hinder them. It's nonsense for the absence of them to be claimed as objectives in their own right without any reference to any benefits that might accrue.
    The benefits for Leavers of leaving them are ending free movement from the EU and doing our own free trade deals
    Except Northen Ireland business will have to pay VAT first if importing from the rUK and claim it back as a rebate. But not if they buy from Ireland.
    So in reality no extra costs given the rebate
    So businesses in part of the UK will have to file paperwork to get a rebate if thye buy from GB which, incredibly, they would not have to if they were to buy from Slovakia.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900

    That's pretty astonishing. Is he giving up?
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Andrew said:


    That's pretty astonishing. Is he giving up?
    And not bothering with a 2nd ref unless this fails Saturday.....
    Is he tacitly allowing Brexit and going for an election?!
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,753
    Cyclefree said:

    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    No, a hard border would have happened if we went to No Deal, at least from the Irish side.

    What we have today is a formal arrangement to keep Northern Ireland in the UK and UK customs area while avoiding a hard border with the Republic of Ireland

    The fact that you need to proclaim that NI is staying in the UK is noteworthy. But NI will also be bound by EU rules whereas the UK won't be. That was Boris' big win. Why you are so happy

    And so there has been a formal separation between Great Britain and the island of Ireland.

    Something changed and what changed is that NI will align with the EU more closely and Great Britain much less so.

    The fact that the deal has been agreed and the backstop junked is the clue you should follow up on.
    And had NI not aligned more closely with the EU and had a hard border with the Republic of Ireland then a majority of Northern Irish voters would likely have voted to Leave the UK completely and join the Republic of Ireland
    Yes exactly! Finally! So instead they've got an aligned island of Ireland. It's win win for the nationalists.
    No as Northern Ireland stays in the UK without a hard border making Irish unity likely, so still the Nationalists aim is defeated
    It separates NI from GB. As your email from CCHQ explained to you today.
    I admire your persistence. But it’s no use. @HYUFD is now an expert on Northern Ireland having just visited it. He doesn’t even have to have read the Protocol to know what it says or means.
    Indeed.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,706
    geoffw said:

    This is a useful summary of the key changes in the Boris WA compared with Theresa's.
    https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/10/boris-johnsons-brexit-deal-eight-key-changes/

    If the Spectator is right then the new deal is really quite different from the old. Whether it will prove better is harder to say but it has been fast and remarkable work to put this together. The EU has given a lot of ground. Somewhat contrary to the mood music of the last few weeks.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,875
    Andrew said:


    That's pretty astonishing. Is he giving up?
    Ronnie Campbell is a very good friend of his.
  • Pulpstar said:

    18-24 yr olds 32-29 Johnson

    Oh dear oh dear oh dear. That's quite funny.

    I trust Boris has his slot on the Pyramid Stage next year?
    "Oh, Boris Johnson!"
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,060
    edited October 2019

    And Jeremy gets his Brexit......
    ... one which he has has strongly slagged off
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    RobD said:

    justin124 said:

    As an act of sweet revenge, I wonder whether the DUP might now be inclined to support a VNOC - and even be prepared to install Corbyn as PM on a short term basis. Were I in their position I would contemplate that .

    I doubt they would ever do that given his past associations.
    But their bitterness towards Johnson might override that.At the last minute, perhaps the LDs and ChangeUK might rethink their positions too.
    It would require Corbyn to commit to the DUP either to keep the whole UK in the EU or the whole UK in the Single Market and Customs Union but the former would see Labour MPs from Leave seats rebel and the latter would not be enough for the LDs or CUK as it is still Brexit
    But the DUP will not feel shafted by Corbyn - whereas they will re- Johnson. Revenge is a very powerful emotion, and it would be entirely natural to seek the most effective way of venting that. Similarly if I was one of the Tories now denied the Whip - or even sacked from Government when Johnson took over - I would be looking for every opportunity to undermine him as a way of paying him back.Clarke , Soames, Benyon, Burt and Rudd are standing down . What do they now have to lose?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,476
    nichomar said:

    Foxy said:

    nico67 said:

    Hilarious watching old video of Bozo saying how terrible checks would be and a border in the Irish Sea .

    I appreciate Leavers think he’s the next Messiah but let’s be blunt he’s a pathological liar who would sell his grannie to become PM .

    Bozo doesn’t do national interest he just does his interest.

    It is quite something!

    https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/1184904527226515456?s=19
    But I’m afraid there is no where else to go, move on and seek closest possible relationships with EU push for EEA get rid of corbyn and look to the future. It’s an actual better use of energy than continuing the current battle. Is there an alternative?
    EEA in the short term, Rejoin in the medium term.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976
    Cyclefree said:

    ydoethur said:

    RobD said:

    geoffw said:

    This is a useful summary of the key changes in the Boris WA compared with Theresa's.
    https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/10/boris-johnsons-brexit-deal-eight-key-changes/

    Wait, the WA can be renegotiated? :o
    Of course, if the EU are being offered by the British government what they wanted all along.
    And the PM changes his red lines and agrees something which he said was wholly unacceptable only a few weeks ago.
    Let's assume for a minute that the only way Johnson could think of to get a deal signed off by both the EU and UK parliaments was to spend weeks chucking around nonsense about No Deal and wholly unacceptable outcomes, to say nothing of treachery and surrender. Would the (still not achieved) end justify the means?

    Yes from me.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,800

    Pulpstar said:

    18-24 yr olds 32-29 Johnson

    Oh dear oh dear oh dear. That's quite funny.

    I trust Boris has his slot on the Pyramid Stage next year?
    Sentiment can change and change quickly. Your man be on top of the world now but in 6 months he could be seriously unpopular.

    Nothing lasts forever.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 21,965

    Andrew said:


    That's pretty astonishing. Is he giving up?
    And not bothering with a 2nd ref unless this fails Saturday.....
    Is he tacitly allowing Brexit and going for an election?!
    Labour leadership election ballots being delivered in the Christmas post.

    Night all.

    We're not leaving, mind.
  • Pulpstar said:

    18-24 yr olds 32-29 Johnson

    Oh dear oh dear oh dear. That's quite funny.

    I trust Boris has his slot on the Pyramid Stage next year?
    If he replicates that subsample in an actual general election then perhaps. Although really it was 25+ voters who made the difference last time around. It’s those voters who Boris needs to win over. As with May, the timing of the GE and how Boris survives intense scrutiny will be a big decider on how things go. My own thoughts are that if a GE is held in the next 3 months the likely result is a either a hung parliament with the Tories as the largest party or a small Tory majority.

    I think we need more substantive evidence than subsamples to show that women and under 40 voters favour Boris by that much. IIRC subsamples pre-2017 GE showed May leading with 18-24 year olds at one stage. Wonder how that one went in the general....
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,584
    Much as I rather we Remained, this deal is way better than a No Deal exit so I won't be distraught if it passes.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    DavidL said:

    geoffw said:

    This is a useful summary of the key changes in the Boris WA compared with Theresa's.
    https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/10/boris-johnsons-brexit-deal-eight-key-changes/

    If the Spectator is right then the new deal is really quite different from the old. Whether it will prove better is harder to say but it has been fast and remarkable work to put this together. The EU has given a lot of ground. Somewhat contrary to the mood music of the last few weeks.
    The mood music was based on the idea that Boris wasn't as shameless as of course he fucking is.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,476
    DavidL said:

    geoffw said:

    This is a useful summary of the key changes in the Boris WA compared with Theresa's.
    https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/10/boris-johnsons-brexit-deal-eight-key-changes/

    If the Spectator is right then the new deal is really quite different from the old. Whether it will prove better is harder to say but it has been fast and remarkable work to put this together. The EU has given a lot of ground. Somewhat contrary to the mood music of the last few weeks.
    It is the UK's red lines that have been abandoned. This Deal was availible 18 months ago, such precedent for the FTA negotiations.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    A wild thought. Corbyns apparent lack of fight and not carpeting leavers that vote for the deal...... hes been in Brussels today, maybe word got to him that there wont be an extension??
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976
    Andrew said:


    That's pretty astonishing. Is he giving up?
    I think it's possible that he is somewhat put out by the refusal of his MPs to back a GE a few weeks back because they "didn't trust Johnson to deliver it as agreed", and is simply working on the basis that he'll do whatever gets him to the election fastest.
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    edited October 2019
    The problem with Corbyn is that he has no leadership skills or common sense whatsoever. Anybody with common sense would not be listening to Karie Murphy or Seamus Milne. I don’t get the sense that his left wing economic polices are the albatross around his neck, but just rather his general ineptitude. Plus, his attempt at triangulating on Brexit has hugely damaged his brand. For a man that was supposed to stand for a definitive, principled left wing politics he has come to personify all the worse aspects of centrism on Brexit - ambiguity, assuming wrongly that the position in the ‘middle’ is the right one.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,584
    eristdoof said:


    And Jeremy gets his Brexit......
    ... one which he has has strongly slagged off
    Jezza should have voted for May's deal (or at least abstained)... it would have torn the Tories apart.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,706
    Alistair said:

    DavidL said:

    geoffw said:

    This is a useful summary of the key changes in the Boris WA compared with Theresa's.
    https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/10/boris-johnsons-brexit-deal-eight-key-changes/

    If the Spectator is right then the new deal is really quite different from the old. Whether it will prove better is harder to say but it has been fast and remarkable work to put this together. The EU has given a lot of ground. Somewhat contrary to the mood music of the last few weeks.
    The mood music was based on the idea that Boris wasn't as shameless as of course he fucking is.
    Nah it was based on the inherent superiority and condescension of the EU, the incompetence and mendaciousness of the British government and a slight bizarre desire to see our own country humiliated for having the stupidity to vote leave. It turned out to be total unadulterated crap. Quelle surprise as our French friends would say.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786

    The problem with Corbyn is that embrace has no leadership skills or common sense whatsoever. Anybody with common sense would not be listening to Karie Murphy or Seamus Milne. I don’t get the sense that his left wing economic polices are the albatross around his neck, but just rather his general ineptitude. Plus, his attempt at triangulating on Brexit has hugely damaged his brand. For a man that was supposed to stand for a definitive, principled left wing politics he had come to personify all the worse aspects of centrism on Brexit - ambiguity, assuming wrongly that the position in the ‘middle’ is the right one.

    Trying to apply Aristotles Golden Mean to Killing the Firstborn
  • Alistair said:

    DavidL said:

    geoffw said:

    This is a useful summary of the key changes in the Boris WA compared with Theresa's.
    https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/10/boris-johnsons-brexit-deal-eight-key-changes/

    If the Spectator is right then the new deal is really quite different from the old. Whether it will prove better is harder to say but it has been fast and remarkable work to put this together. The EU has given a lot of ground. Somewhat contrary to the mood music of the last few weeks.
    The mood music was based on the idea that Boris wasn't as shameless as of course he fucking is.
    The mood music changes so fast predicting things based on the most recent events is a fool’s game. I remember when TMay’s deal got hyped on here as well.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,706
    stodge said:

    Pulpstar said:

    18-24 yr olds 32-29 Johnson

    Oh dear oh dear oh dear. That's quite funny.

    I trust Boris has his slot on the Pyramid Stage next year?
    Sentiment can change and change quickly. Your man be on top of the world now but in 6 months he could be seriously unpopular.

    Nothing lasts forever.
    Except cold November rain, of course.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,584

    Alistair said:

    DavidL said:

    geoffw said:

    This is a useful summary of the key changes in the Boris WA compared with Theresa's.
    https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/10/boris-johnsons-brexit-deal-eight-key-changes/

    If the Spectator is right then the new deal is really quite different from the old. Whether it will prove better is harder to say but it has been fast and remarkable work to put this together. The EU has given a lot of ground. Somewhat contrary to the mood music of the last few weeks.
    The mood music was based on the idea that Boris wasn't as shameless as of course he fucking is.
    The mood music changes so fast predicting things based on the most recent events is a fool’s game. I remember when TMay’s deal got hyped on here as well.
    Indeed. I for one was convinced that once all the initial noise died down it was going to pass the HoC first time!
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,584
    DavidL said:

    Alistair said:

    DavidL said:

    geoffw said:

    This is a useful summary of the key changes in the Boris WA compared with Theresa's.
    https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/10/boris-johnsons-brexit-deal-eight-key-changes/

    If the Spectator is right then the new deal is really quite different from the old. Whether it will prove better is harder to say but it has been fast and remarkable work to put this together. The EU has given a lot of ground. Somewhat contrary to the mood music of the last few weeks.
    The mood music was based on the idea that Boris wasn't as shameless as of course he fucking is.
    Nah it was based on the inherent superiority and condescension of the EU, the incompetence and mendaciousness of the British government and a slight bizarre desire to see our own country humiliated for having the stupidity to vote leave. It turned out to be total unadulterated crap. Quelle surprise as our French friends would say.
    Although this revised deal is better than May's deal for the EU of course.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Maughams timewaste court case will pass the time tomorrow
This discussion has been closed.