I suspect today's events have ensured the Conservatives will be in Government for the next five years and maybe for the next decade. It's hard to see whatever happens on Saturday how Boris won't win a majority at the next GE which will hypothetically take us to 2025.
I have considerable reservations about his "tsunami of Tory ideas" and suspect his tax cutting lunacy will eventually lead to a mountain of debt and a recession of some severity but the question will be how the Opposition will re-define itself in the early 2020s and the degree to which that transformation will be complete by 2025.
I could imagine environmental themes gaining more attention with time and it may be a more overtly pro-environment (not Green) movement which may be Labour or the LDs or an amalgam will emerge. It may also be the benefits of leaving the EU will look exaggerated with time and while that may not translate into a desire to rejoin, it may instigate a form of buyer's remorse.
All things pass and I suspect in 2025 we could be looking at a very different political environment but I am to be honest quite disheartened this evening. In hindsight I don't think there's anything the anti-Conservative forces could have done once the ComRes poll showed Boris winning a majority. From that point his election as Conservative leader was guaranteed.
Were he facing a more astute and popular Opposition leader I think his obvious limitations would be exposed but he has the ideal opponent in Corbyn who he can verbally wrong-foot with ease.
Johnson also has had, as Blair and Thatcher had in their time, more than his share of luck. That will run out one time and perhaps spectacularly but he is the dominant political figure of the moment.
It is worth reflecting that should Johnson win an election, Corbyn is finished. It is hard to imagine his replacement will be as bad or as extreme, although the left, having lost the shaky grasp they had on reality, talk about Long Bailey and Pidcock as though they might someday be capable of running something.
So paradoxically a modest general election win might well be bad news for Johnson.
As for your suspicions about his tax cuts, I can only admire your optimism. I don’t have suspicions so much as certainties.
As an act of sweet revenge, I wonder whether the DUP might now be inclined to support a VNOC - and even be prepared to install Corbyn as PM on a short term basis. Were I in their position I would contemplate that .
Still not enough, Corbyn needs LD and Independent MPs support too as well as that of the DUP and SNP and Plaid and they won't provide it and if the Boris Deal fails the DUP will stick with the Tories anyway
No, a hard border would have happened if we went to No Deal, at least from the Irish side.
What we have today is a formal arrangement to keep Northern Ireland in the UK and UK customs area while avoiding a hard border with the Republic of Ireland
The fact that you need to proclaim that NI is staying in the UK is noteworthy. But NI will also be bound by EU rules whereas the UK won't be. That was Boris' big win. Why you are so happy
And so there has been a formal separation between Great Britain and the island of Ireland.
Something changed and what changed is that NI will align with the EU more closely and Great Britain much less so.
The fact that the deal has been agreed and the backstop junked is the clue you should follow up on.
And had NI not aligned more closely with the EU and had a hard border with the Republic of Ireland then a majority of Northern Irish voters would likely have voted to Leave the UK completely and join the Republic of Ireland
Yes exactly! Finally! So instead they've got an aligned island of Ireland. It's win win for the nationalists.
No as Northern Ireland stays in the UK without a hard border making Irish unity likely, so still the Nationalists aim is defeated
It separates NI from GB. As your email from CCHQ explained to you today.
The Democrats walked out of the meeting, in protest of Trump’s insults. Speaking to reporters afterward, Pelosi said, “I think now we have to pray for his health, because this was a very serious meltdown on the part of the president.”
As the evidence mounts of Trump’s abuses and obstructions, will some Republican senators see the impeachment process as an opportunity to rid themselves of a president that they must be regarding as increasingly dangerous? A few weeks ago, the question would have been asinine. Now it’s, at the very least, not implausible.
The Republicans said very much the same about Pelosi funnily enough She needs to stop ducking a vote on formalizing impeachment proceedings, until that trump is free to avoid subpoenas etc without sanction
No he's not. That's something he just made up. The House has full over sight powers at all times.
There is no "we are starting investigation of material to decided if we will hold an impeachment vote" step to vote on.
But no impeachment until they vote to initiate it Why haven't the house subpoenad his tax returns if they have legally enforceable oversight?
As an act of sweet revenge, I wonder whether the DUP might now be inclined to support a VNOC - and even be prepared to install Corbyn as PM on a short term basis. Were I in their position I would contemplate that .
As an act of sweet revenge, I wonder whether the DUP might now be inclined to support a VNOC - and even be prepared to install Corbyn as PM on a short term basis. Were I in their position I would contemplate that .
I doubt they would ever do that given his past associations.
But their bitterness towards Johnson might override that.At the last minute, perhaps the LDs and ChangeUK might rethink their positions too.
No, a hard border would have happened if we went to No Deal, at least from the Irish side.
What we have today is a formal arrangement to keep Northern Ireland in the UK and UK customs area while avoiding a hard border with the Republic of Ireland
The fact that you need to proclaim that NI is staying in the UK is noteworthy. But NI will also be bound by EU rules whereas the UK won't be. That was Boris' big win. Why you are so happy
And so there has been a formal separation between Great Britain and the island of Ireland.
Something changed and what changed is that NI will align with the EU more closely and Great Britain much less so.
The fact that the deal has been agreed and the backstop junked is the clue you should follow up on.
And had NI not aligned more closely with the EU and had a hard border with the Republic of Ireland then a majority of Northern Irish voters would likely have voted to Leave the UK completely and join the Republic of Ireland
Yes exactly! Finally! So instead they've got an aligned island of Ireland. It's win win for the nationalists.
No as Northern Ireland stays in the UK without a hard border making Irish unity likely, so still the Nationalists aim is defeated
It separates NI from GB. As your email from CCHQ explained to you today.
Which it already has been on issues like abortion, gay marriage etc but still politically is in the UK
As an act of sweet revenge, I wonder whether the DUP might now be inclined to support a VNOC - and even be prepared to install Corbyn as PM on a short term basis. Were I in their position I would contemplate that .
No, a hard border would have happened if we went to No Deal, at least from the Irish side.
What we have today is a formal arrangement to keep Northern Ireland in the UK and UK customs area while avoiding a hard border with the Republic of Ireland
The fact that you need to proclaim that NI is staying in the UK is noteworthy. But NI will also be bound by EU rules whereas the UK won't be. That was Boris' big win. Why you are so happy
And so there has been a formal separation between Great Britain and the island of Ireland.
Something changed and what changed is that NI will align with the EU more closely and Great Britain much less so.
The fact that the deal has been agreed and the backstop junked is the clue you should follow up on.
And had NI not aligned more closely with the EU and had a hard border with the Republic of Ireland then a majority of Northern Irish voters would likely have voted to Leave the UK completely and join the Republic of Ireland
Yes exactly! Finally! So instead they've got an aligned island of Ireland. It's win win for the nationalists.
No as Northern Ireland stays in the UK without a hard border making Irish unity likely, so still the Nationalists aim is defeated
It separates NI from GB. As your email from CCHQ explained to you today.
I admire your persistence. But it’s no use. @HYUFD is now an expert on Northern Ireland having just visited it. He doesn’t even have to have read the Protocol to know what it says or means.
As an act of sweet revenge, I wonder whether the DUP might now be inclined to support a VNOC - and even be prepared to install Corbyn as PM on a short term basis. Were I in their position I would contemplate that .
If they've any sense they'll go nuclear between MV4 passing and the 2nd Reading of the WAIB.
Remainers and Faragists are really trying to spin things hard but I don't see any of their arguments really having punch. When I was arguing for May's deal, it was hard to defend the lack of consent in the backstop. And while I want the UK in the Customs Union, I could see how the inability to sign our own trade deals was powerful to Leavers.
Now though, there is not much the opponents have. They are trying to push this "carving up the UK" line but it doesn't stick. NI has always been constitutionally in the UK but a more mixed status pratically: British but with the right to Irish passports, represented at Westminster but with her own law, representative democracy but with extra double majority requirements for Irish nationalists. This deal continues that grand tradition: under UK law but with regulatory exceptions for agrifood and industrial goods, checks on goods but not personal possessions, part of UK trade deals but with access to the single market. There is no sizable shift, even while Remainers try to play it up, because it is the only line they have.
It's an arrangement that is probably unworkable for Northern Ireland as it stands. Admittedly that was always the case with the Irish backstop. But we have moved from it being the worst case if all else fails to it being the actual policy. It's an arrangement that, unless changed, offers so little to the rest of the UK, we might literally have no deal with the EU in a year's time.
I am struggling to see any benefit to this deal beyond avoiding an immediate chaotic exit.
It takes GB out of the EU, the single market and customs union, it ends free movement from the EU and lets us do our own trade deals and it avoids a hard border in Ireland
Being inside or outside the SM and CU are functional means. Either they help us achieve our objectives - for example better market access for our goods - or they hinder them. It's nonsense for the absence of them to be claimed as objectives in their own right without any reference to any benefits that might accrue.
As an act of sweet revenge, I wonder whether the DUP might now be inclined to support a VNOC - and even be prepared to install Corbyn as PM on a short term basis. Were I in their position I would contemplate that .
I doubt they would ever do that given his past associations.
But their bitterness towards Johnson might override that.At the last minute, perhaps the LDs and ChangeUK might rethink their positions too.
It would require Corbyn to commit to the DUP either to keep the whole UK in the EU or the whole UK in the Single Market and Customs Union but the former would see Labour MPs from Leave seats rebel and the latter would not be enough for the LDs or CUK as it is still Brexit
As an act of sweet revenge, I wonder whether the DUP might now be inclined to support a VNOC - and even be prepared to install Corbyn as PM on a short term basis. Were I in their position I would contemplate that .
If they've any sense they'll go nuclear between MV4 passing and the 2nd Reading of the WAIB.
As an act of sweet revenge, I wonder whether the DUP might now be inclined to support a VNOC - and even be prepared to install Corbyn as PM on a short term basis. Were I in their position I would contemplate that .
I doubt they would ever do that given his past associations.
But their bitterness towards Johnson might override that.At the last minute, perhaps the LDs and ChangeUK might rethink their positions too.
I would say this is wishful thinking. The simple facts are - and these are what Labour members cannot seem to get their head around - that Corbyn is more hated, distrusted and despised than Johnson and Labour are more hated, distrusted and despised than the Conservatives.
In the circumstances that’s both an extraordinary achievement and deeply shocking, so I can understand why this reality is one they refuse to face. But it also means there is no way a non-Conservative government can be formed without an election. Possibly not even with one given the formidable barriers to a Labour majority.
Nearly 60 and put on Breakfast... It's almost as though she's upset someone at SKY!
Well that about sums up your attitude to life, it was a job swap between Sarah Jane me and her, for whatever reason the fact that she is nearly 60 is a disgrace to use as any explanation for this change.
Remainers and Faragists are really trying to spin things hard but I don't see any of their arguments really having punch. When I was arguing for May's deal, it was hard to defend the lack of consent in the backstop. And while I want the UK in the Customs Union, I could see how the inability to sign our own trade deals was powerful to Leavers.
Now though, there is not much the opponents have. They are trying to push this "carving up the UK" line but it doesn't stick. NI has always been constitutionally in the UK but a more mixed status pratically: British but with the right to Irish passports, represented at Westminster but with her own law, representative democracy but with extra double majority requirements for Irish nationalists. This deal continues that grand tradition: under UK law but with regulatory exceptions for agrifood and industrial goods, checks on goods but not personal possessions, part of UK trade deals but with access to the single market. There is no sizable shift, even while Remainers try to play it up, because it is the only line they have.
It's an arrangement that is probably unworkable for Northern Ireland as it stands. Admittedly that was always the case with the Irish backstop. But we have moved from it being the worst case if all else fails to it being the actual policy. It's an arrangement that, unless changed, offers so little to the rest of the UK, we might literally have no deal with the EU in a year's time.
I am struggling to see any benefit to this deal beyond avoiding an immediate chaotic exit.
It takes GB out of the EU, the single market and customs union, it ends free movement from the EU and lets us do our own trade deals and it avoids a hard border in Ireland
Being inside or outside the SM and CU are functional means. Either they help us achieve our objectives - for example better market access for our goods - or they hinder them. It's nonsense for the absence of them to be claimed as objectives in their own right without any reference to any benefits that might accrue.
The benefits for Leavers of leaving them are ending free movement from the EU and doing our own free trade deals
Remainers and Faragists are really trying to spin things hard but I don't see any of their arguments really having punch. When I was arguing for May's deal, it was hard to defend the lack of consent in the backstop. And while I want the UK in the Customs Union, I could see how the inability to sign our own trade deals was powerful to Leavers.
Now though, there is not much the opponents have. They are trying to push this "carving up the UK" line but it doesn't stick. NI has always been constitutionally in the UK but a more mixed status pratically: British but with the right to Irish passports, represented at Westminster but with her own law, representative democracy but with extra double majority requirements for Irish nationalists. This deal continues that grand tradition: under UK law but with regulatory exceptions for agrifood and industrial goods, checks on goods but not personal possessions, part of UK trade deals but with access to the single market. There is no sizable shift, even while Remainers try to play it up, because it is the only line they have.
There will be a border down the Irish Sea. As explained by that arch remainer Nigel Farage today in Brussels.
That is a bold move for the Conservative and Unionist Party.
What party ???
I don't think I've ever seen that party on any ballot paper I've had.
People concerned about the Unionist aspect should have taken note of that.
The party that Jacob Rees Mogg is a member of. The same party that outlawed the creation of a border down the Irish Sea.
That party.
This Jacob Rees-Mogg, the Conservative candidate in North-East Somerset not the Conservative and Unionist:
Remainers and Faragists are really trying to spin things hard but I don't see any of their arguments really having punch. When I was arguing for May's deal, it was hard to defend the lack of consent in the backstop. And while I want the UK in the Customs Union, I could see how the inability to sign our own trade deals was powerful to Leavers.
Now though, there is not much the opponents have. They are trying to push this "carving up the UK" line but it doesn't stick. NI has always been constitutionally in the UK but a more mixed status pratically: British but with the right to Irish passports, represented at Westminster but with her own law, representative democracy but with extra double majority requirements for Irish nationalists. This deal continues that grand tradition: under UK law but with regulatory exceptions for agrifood and industrial goods, checks on goods but not personal possessions, part of UK trade deals but with access to the single market. There is no sizable shift, even while Remainers try to play it up, because it is the only line they have.
There will be a border down the Irish Sea. As explained by that arch remainer Nigel Farage today in Brussels.
That is a bold move for the Conservative and Unionist Party.
What party ???
I don't think I've ever seen that party on any ballot paper I've had.
People concerned about the Unionist aspect should have taken note of that.
The party that Jacob Rees Mogg is a member of. The same party that outlawed the creation of a border down the Irish Sea.
That party.
This Jacob Rees-Mogg, the Conservative candidate in North-East Somerset not the Conservative and Unionist:
The sum total has some Democrats envisioning something that seemed unlikely only a few weeks ago – a race for the nomination that comes down to Warren or Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) on the left, with an opening for Buttigieg to supplant Biden as the party’s centrist standard-bearer.
As an act of sweet revenge, I wonder whether the DUP might now be inclined to support a VNOC - and even be prepared to install Corbyn as PM on a short term basis. Were I in their position I would contemplate that .
If they've any sense they'll go nuclear between MV4 passing and the 2nd Reading of the WAIB.
And lose all that money for NI?
They don't seem to be bothered by cheques on the border.
Bloody minded, self punishing hardship is the bread and butter of Presbyterianism.
The Democrats walked out of the meeting, in protest of Trump’s insults. Speaking to reporters afterward, Pelosi said, “I think now we have to pray for his health, because this was a very serious meltdown on the part of the president.”
As the evidence mounts of Trump’s abuses and obstructions, will some Republican senators see the impeachment process as an opportunity to rid themselves of a president that they must be regarding as increasingly dangerous? A few weeks ago, the question would have been asinine. Now it’s, at the very least, not implausible.
The Republicans said very much the same about Pelosi funnily enough She needs to stop ducking a vote on formalizing impeachment proceedings, until that trump is free to avoid subpoenas etc without sanction
No he's not. That's something he just made up. The House has full over sight powers at all times.
There is no "we are starting investigation of material to decided if we will hold an impeachment vote" step to vote on.
But no impeachment until they vote to initiate it Why haven't the house subpoenad his tax returns if they have legally enforceable oversight?
As an act of sweet revenge, I wonder whether the DUP might now be inclined to support a VNOC - and even be prepared to install Corbyn as PM on a short term basis. Were I in their position I would contemplate that .
I doubt they would ever do that given his past associations.
But their bitterness towards Johnson might override that.At the last minute, perhaps the LDs and ChangeUK might rethink their positions too.
I would say this is wishful thinking. The simple facts are - and these are what Labour members cannot seem to get their head around - that Corbyn is more hated, distrusted and despised than Johnson and Labour are more hated, distrusted and despised than the Conservatives.
In the circumstances that’s both an extraordinary achievement and deeply shocking, so I can understand why this reality is one they refuse to face. But it also means there is no way a non-Conservative government can be formed without an election. Possibly not even with one given the formidable barriers to a Labour majority.
Are you saying that the Lib Dems will accept Brexit ? A Brexit with a Deal is also a Brexit.
Well yes. Once you reverse your self some something that was totally unnaceptable (border down the Irish Sea) all sorts of things go back on the table.
Remainers and Faragists are really trying to spin things hard but I don't see any of their arguments really having punch. When I was arguing for May's deal, it was hard to defend the lack of consent in the backstop. And while I want the UK in the Customs Union, I could see how the inability to sign our own trade deals was powerful to Leavers.
Now though, there is not much the opponents have. They are trying to push this "carving up the UK" line but it doesn't stick. NI has always been constitutionally in the UK but a more mixed status pratically: British but with the right to Irish passports, represented at Westminster but with her own law, representative democracy but with extra double majority requirements for Irish nationalists. This deal continues that grand tradition: under UK law but with regulatory exceptions for agrifood and industrial goods, checks on goods but not personal possessions, part of UK trade deals but with access to the single market. There is no sizable shift, even while Remainers try to play it up, because it is the only line they have.
It's an arrangement that is probably unworkable for Northern Ireland as it stands. Admittedly that was always the case with the Irish backstop. But we have moved from it being the worst case if all else fails to it being the actual policy. It's an arrangement that, unless changed, offers so little to the rest of the UK, we might literally have no deal with the EU in a year's time.
I am struggling to see any benefit to this deal beyond avoiding an immediate chaotic exit.
It takes GB out of the EU, the single market and customs union, it ends free movement from the EU and lets us do our own trade deals and it avoids a hard border in Ireland
Being inside or outside the SM and CU are functional means. Either they help us achieve our objectives - for example better market access for our goods - or they hinder them. It's nonsense for the absence of them to be claimed as objectives in their own right without any reference to any benefits that might accrue.
The benefits for Leavers of leaving them are ending free movement from the EU and doing our own free trade deals
Except Northen Ireland business will have to pay VAT first if importing from the rUK and claim it back as a rebate. But not if they buy from Ireland.
The Democrats walked out of the meeting, in protest of Trump’s insults. Speaking to reporters afterward, Pelosi said, “I think now we have to pray for his health, because this was a very serious meltdown on the part of the president.”
As the evidence mounts of Trump’s abuses and obstructions, will some Republican senators see the impeachment process as an opportunity to rid themselves of a president that they must be regarding as increasingly dangerous? A few weeks ago, the question would have been asinine. Now it’s, at the very least, not implausible.
The Republicans said very much the same about Pelosi funnily enough She needs to stop ducking a vote on formalizing impeachment proceedings, until that trump is free to avoid subpoenas etc without sanction
No he's not. That's something he just made up. The House has full over sight powers at all times.
There is no "we are starting investigation of material to decided if we will hold an impeachment vote" step to vote on.
But no impeachment until they vote to initiate it Why haven't the house subpoenad his tax returns if they have legally enforceable oversight?
Remainers and Faragists are really trying to spin things hard but I don't see any of their arguments really having punch. When I was arguing for May's deal, it was hard to defend the lack of consent in the backstop. And while I want the UK in the Customs Union, I could see how the inability to sign our own trade deals was powerful to Leavers.
Now though, there is not much the opponents have. They are trying to push this "carving up the UK" line but it doesn't stick. NI has always been constitutionally in the UK but a more mixed status pratically: British but with the right to Irish passports, represented at Westminster but with her own law, representative democracy but with extra double majority requirements for Irish nationalists. This deal continues that grand tradition: under UK law but with regulatory exceptions for agrifood and industrial goods, checks on goods but not personal possessions, part of UK trade deals but with access to the single market. There is no sizable shift, even while Remainers try to play it up, because it is the only line they have.
It's an arrangement that is probably unworkable for Northern Ireland as it stands. Admittedly that was always the case with the Irish backstop. But we have moved from it being the worst case if all else fails to it being the actual policy. It's an arrangement that, unless changed, offers so little to the rest of the UK, we might literally have no deal with the EU in a year's time.
I am struggling to see any benefit to this deal beyond avoiding an immediate chaotic exit.
It takes GB out of the EU, the single market and customs union, it ends free movement from the EU and lets us do our own trade deals and it avoids a hard border in Ireland
Being inside or outside the SM and CU are functional means. Either they help us achieve our objectives - for example better market access for our goods - or they hinder them. It's nonsense for the absence of them to be claimed as objectives in their own right without any reference to any benefits that might accrue.
The benefits for Leavers of leaving them are ending free movement from the EU and doing our own free trade deals
Except Northen Ireland business will have to pay VAT first if importing from the rUK and claim it back as a rebate. But not if they buy from Ireland.
As an act of sweet revenge, I wonder whether the DUP might now be inclined to support a VNOC - and even be prepared to install Corbyn as PM on a short term basis. Were I in their position I would contemplate that .
I doubt they would ever do that given his past associations.
But their bitterness towards Johnson might override that.At the last minute, perhaps the LDs and ChangeUK might rethink their positions too.
I would say this is wishful thinking. The simple facts are - and these are what Labour members cannot seem to get their head around - that Corbyn is more hated, distrusted and despised than Johnson and Labour are more hated, distrusted and despised than the Conservatives.
In the circumstances that’s both an extraordinary achievement and deeply shocking, so I can understand why this reality is one they refuse to face. But it also means there is no way a non-Conservative government can be formed without an election. Possibly not even with one given the formidable barriers to a Labour majority.
Are you saying that the Lib Dems will accept Brexit ? A Brexit with a Deal is also a Brexit.
The point is that the Liberal Democrats do not trust Corbyn to stop Brexit, and know they will not soon be forgiven if they enable a double whammy of geriatric nutter in Downing Street and departure from the EU.
It is for the same reason the SNP won’t support him, although helpfully there he has categorically ruled out the one thing they would be willing to give him support in return for.
No. I have just read it in a "private window" on Firefox.
Ah thanks, yes, that works in a Safari private window too. I assume they let you have a free view and control it by cookies... which doesn't work too well for private windows.
The Democrats walked out of the meeting, in protest of Trump’s insults. Speaking to reporters afterward, Pelosi said, “I think now we have to pray for his health, because this was a very serious meltdown on the part of the president.”
As the evidence mounts of Trump’s abuses and obstructions, will some Republican senators see the impeachment process as an opportunity to rid themselves of a president that they must be regarding as increasingly dangerous? A few weeks ago, the question would have been asinine. Now it’s, at the very least, not implausible.
The Republicans said very much the same about Pelosi funnily enough She needs to stop ducking a vote on formalizing impeachment proceedings, until that trump is free to avoid subpoenas etc without sanction
No he's not. That's something he just made up. The House has full over sight powers at all times.
There is no "we are starting investigation of material to decided if we will hold an impeachment vote" step to vote on.
But no impeachment until they vote to initiate it Why haven't the house subpoenad his tax returns if they have legally enforceable oversight?
Remainers and Faragists are really trying to spin things hard but I don't see any of their arguments really having punch. When I was arguing for May's deal, it was hard to defend the lack of consent in the backstop. And while I want the UK in the Customs Union, I could see how the inability to sign our own trade deals was powerful to Leavers.
Now though, there is not much the opponents have. They are trying to push this "carving up the UK" line but it doesn't stick. NI has always been constitutionally in the UK but a more mixed status pratically: British but with the right to Irish passports, represented at Westminster but with her own law, representative democracy but with extra double majority requirements for Irish nationalists. This deal continues that grand tradition: under UK law but with regulatory exceptions for agrifood and industrial goods, checks on goods but not personal possessions, part of UK trade deals but with access to the single market. There is no sizable shift, even while Remainers try to play it up, because it is the only line they have.
There will be a border down the Irish Sea. As explained by that arch remainer Nigel Farage today in Brussels.
That is a bold move for the Conservative and Unionist Party.
What party ???
I don't think I've ever seen that party on any ballot paper I've had.
People concerned about the Unionist aspect should have taken note of that.
The party that Jacob Rees Mogg is a member of. The same party that outlawed the creation of a border down the Irish Sea.
That party.
This Jacob Rees-Mogg, the Conservative candidate in North-East Somerset not the Conservative and Unionist:
But I’m afraid there is no where else to go, move on and seek closest possible relationships with EU push for EEA get rid of corbyn and look to the future. It’s an actual better use of energy than continuing the current battle. Is there an alternative?
A quick look at Canada with just four days before polling in their GE and the two rolling polls show different outcomes - one has the Liberals one point head and the other has the Conservatives one point ahead so in effect the same outcome, a dead heat.
The more interesting poll is a Leger poll in Quebec which shows the Liberals and Bloc Quebecois tied on 31% with the Conservatives on 16% and the NDP on 14%.
Since 2015 the Liberals are down five points and BQ up twelve points. The Conservatives are fractionally lower and NDP down by eleven. There's very little riding polling out there but what I've seen suggests BQ could well take seats from the Liberals, NDP and the Tories.
The 2015 Liberal win was predicated on 96 gains from the Conservatives, mainly in Ontario and the east and 51 gains from the NDP. The key for the Tories will be to regain ground in Ontario and in Atlantic Canada and simply piling up huge majorities in the Prairies isn't going to help Scheer that much.
But I’m afraid there is no where else to go, move on and seek closest possible relationships with EU push for EEA get rid of corbyn and look to the future. It’s an actual better use of energy than continuing the current battle. Is there an alternative?
YES ! Beat this shit of a deal. Go for 2nd ref and REMAIN.
The Democrats walked out of the meeting, in protest of Trump’s insults. Speaking to reporters afterward, Pelosi said, “I think now we have to pray for his health, because this was a very serious meltdown on the part of the president.”
As the evidence mounts of Trump’s abuses and obstructions, will some Republican senators see the impeachment process as an opportunity to rid themselves of a president that they must be regarding as increasingly dangerous? A few weeks ago, the question would have been asinine. Now it’s, at the very least, not implausible.
The Republicans said very much the same about Pelosi funnily enough She needs to stop ducking a vote on formalizing impeachment proceedings, until that trump is free to avoid subpoenas etc without sanction
No he's not. That's something he just made up. The House has full over sight powers at all times.
There is no "we are starting investigation of material to decided if we will hold an impeachment vote" step to vote on.
But no impeachment until they vote to initiate it Why haven't the house subpoenad his tax returns if they have legally enforceable oversight?
Thinking Bozo makes a better PM is different to preferring him as PM. Thatcher was clearly a better PM than Brown, but my preference would definitely be for the latter.
Though I abhor his politics I must say that there's something endearing about Corbyn's lack of guile. For instance his willingness to be interviewed in a pharmacy yesterday - something that would never happen with Blair.
But I’m afraid there is no where else to go, move on and seek closest possible relationships with EU push for EEA get rid of corbyn and look to the future. It’s an actual better use of energy than continuing the current battle. Is there an alternative?
YES ! Beat this shit of a deal. Go for 2nd ref and REMAIN.
Remainers and Faragists are really trying to spin things hard but I don't see any of their arguments really having punch. When I was arguing for May's deal, it was hard to defend the lack of consent in the backstop. And while I want the UK in the Customs Union, I could see how the inability to sign our own trade deals was powerful to Leavers.
Now though, there is not much the opponents have. They are trying to push this "carving up the UK" line but it doesn't stick. NI has always been constitutionally in the UK but a more mixed status pratically: British but with the right to Irish passports, represented at Westminster but with her own law, representative democracy but with extra double majority requirements for Irish nationalists. This deal continues that grand tradition: under UK law but with regulatory exceptions for agrifood and industrial goods, checks on goods but not personal possessions, part of UK trade deals but with access to the single market. There is no sizable shift, even while Remainers try to play it up, because it is the only line they have.
It's an arrangement that is probably unworkable for Northern Ireland as it stands. Admittedly that was always the case with the Irish backstop. But we have moved from it being the worst case if all else fails to it being the actual policy. It's an arrangement that, unless changed, offers so little to the rest of the UK, we might literally have no deal with the EU in a year's time.
I am struggling to see any benefit to this deal beyond avoiding an immediate chaotic exit.
It takes GB out of the EU, the single market and customs union, it ends free movement from the EU and lets us do our own trade deals and it avoids a hard border in Ireland
Being inside or outside the SM and CU are functional means. Either they help us achieve our objectives - for example better market access for our goods - or they hinder them. It's nonsense for the absence of them to be claimed as objectives in their own right without any reference to any benefits that might accrue.
The benefits for Leavers of leaving them are ending free movement from the EU and doing our own free trade deals
Except Northen Ireland business will have to pay VAT first if importing from the rUK and claim it back as a rebate. But not if they buy from Ireland.
So in reality no extra costs given the rebate
So businesses in part of the UK will have to file paperwork to get a rebate if thye buy from GB which, incredibly, they would not have to if they were to buy from Slovakia.
No, a hard border would have happened if we went to No Deal, at least from the Irish side.
What we have today is a formal arrangement to keep Northern Ireland in the UK and UK customs area while avoiding a hard border with the Republic of Ireland
The fact that you need to proclaim that NI is staying in the UK is noteworthy. But NI will also be bound by EU rules whereas the UK won't be. That was Boris' big win. Why you are so happy
And so there has been a formal separation between Great Britain and the island of Ireland.
Something changed and what changed is that NI will align with the EU more closely and Great Britain much less so.
The fact that the deal has been agreed and the backstop junked is the clue you should follow up on.
And had NI not aligned more closely with the EU and had a hard border with the Republic of Ireland then a majority of Northern Irish voters would likely have voted to Leave the UK completely and join the Republic of Ireland
Yes exactly! Finally! So instead they've got an aligned island of Ireland. It's win win for the nationalists.
No as Northern Ireland stays in the UK without a hard border making Irish unity likely, so still the Nationalists aim is defeated
It separates NI from GB. As your email from CCHQ explained to you today.
I admire your persistence. But it’s no use. @HYUFD is now an expert on Northern Ireland having just visited it. He doesn’t even have to have read the Protocol to know what it says or means.
If the Spectator is right then the new deal is really quite different from the old. Whether it will prove better is harder to say but it has been fast and remarkable work to put this together. The EU has given a lot of ground. Somewhat contrary to the mood music of the last few weeks.
As an act of sweet revenge, I wonder whether the DUP might now be inclined to support a VNOC - and even be prepared to install Corbyn as PM on a short term basis. Were I in their position I would contemplate that .
I doubt they would ever do that given his past associations.
But their bitterness towards Johnson might override that.At the last minute, perhaps the LDs and ChangeUK might rethink their positions too.
It would require Corbyn to commit to the DUP either to keep the whole UK in the EU or the whole UK in the Single Market and Customs Union but the former would see Labour MPs from Leave seats rebel and the latter would not be enough for the LDs or CUK as it is still Brexit
But the DUP will not feel shafted by Corbyn - whereas they will re- Johnson. Revenge is a very powerful emotion, and it would be entirely natural to seek the most effective way of venting that. Similarly if I was one of the Tories now denied the Whip - or even sacked from Government when Johnson took over - I would be looking for every opportunity to undermine him as a way of paying him back.Clarke , Soames, Benyon, Burt and Rudd are standing down . What do they now have to lose?
But I’m afraid there is no where else to go, move on and seek closest possible relationships with EU push for EEA get rid of corbyn and look to the future. It’s an actual better use of energy than continuing the current battle. Is there an alternative?
Of course, if the EU are being offered by the British government what they wanted all along.
And the PM changes his red lines and agrees something which he said was wholly unacceptable only a few weeks ago.
Let's assume for a minute that the only way Johnson could think of to get a deal signed off by both the EU and UK parliaments was to spend weeks chucking around nonsense about No Deal and wholly unacceptable outcomes, to say nothing of treachery and surrender. Would the (still not achieved) end justify the means?
I trust Boris has his slot on the Pyramid Stage next year?
If he replicates that subsample in an actual general election then perhaps. Although really it was 25+ voters who made the difference last time around. It’s those voters who Boris needs to win over. As with May, the timing of the GE and how Boris survives intense scrutiny will be a big decider on how things go. My own thoughts are that if a GE is held in the next 3 months the likely result is a either a hung parliament with the Tories as the largest party or a small Tory majority.
I think we need more substantive evidence than subsamples to show that women and under 40 voters favour Boris by that much. IIRC subsamples pre-2017 GE showed May leading with 18-24 year olds at one stage. Wonder how that one went in the general....
If the Spectator is right then the new deal is really quite different from the old. Whether it will prove better is harder to say but it has been fast and remarkable work to put this together. The EU has given a lot of ground. Somewhat contrary to the mood music of the last few weeks.
The mood music was based on the idea that Boris wasn't as shameless as of course he fucking is.
If the Spectator is right then the new deal is really quite different from the old. Whether it will prove better is harder to say but it has been fast and remarkable work to put this together. The EU has given a lot of ground. Somewhat contrary to the mood music of the last few weeks.
It is the UK's red lines that have been abandoned. This Deal was availible 18 months ago, such precedent for the FTA negotiations.
A wild thought. Corbyns apparent lack of fight and not carpeting leavers that vote for the deal...... hes been in Brussels today, maybe word got to him that there wont be an extension??
I think it's possible that he is somewhat put out by the refusal of his MPs to back a GE a few weeks back because they "didn't trust Johnson to deliver it as agreed", and is simply working on the basis that he'll do whatever gets him to the election fastest.
The problem with Corbyn is that he has no leadership skills or common sense whatsoever. Anybody with common sense would not be listening to Karie Murphy or Seamus Milne. I don’t get the sense that his left wing economic polices are the albatross around his neck, but just rather his general ineptitude. Plus, his attempt at triangulating on Brexit has hugely damaged his brand. For a man that was supposed to stand for a definitive, principled left wing politics he has come to personify all the worse aspects of centrism on Brexit - ambiguity, assuming wrongly that the position in the ‘middle’ is the right one.
If the Spectator is right then the new deal is really quite different from the old. Whether it will prove better is harder to say but it has been fast and remarkable work to put this together. The EU has given a lot of ground. Somewhat contrary to the mood music of the last few weeks.
The mood music was based on the idea that Boris wasn't as shameless as of course he fucking is.
Nah it was based on the inherent superiority and condescension of the EU, the incompetence and mendaciousness of the British government and a slight bizarre desire to see our own country humiliated for having the stupidity to vote leave. It turned out to be total unadulterated crap. Quelle surprise as our French friends would say.
The problem with Corbyn is that embrace has no leadership skills or common sense whatsoever. Anybody with common sense would not be listening to Karie Murphy or Seamus Milne. I don’t get the sense that his left wing economic polices are the albatross around his neck, but just rather his general ineptitude. Plus, his attempt at triangulating on Brexit has hugely damaged his brand. For a man that was supposed to stand for a definitive, principled left wing politics he had come to personify all the worse aspects of centrism on Brexit - ambiguity, assuming wrongly that the position in the ‘middle’ is the right one.
Trying to apply Aristotles Golden Mean to Killing the Firstborn
If the Spectator is right then the new deal is really quite different from the old. Whether it will prove better is harder to say but it has been fast and remarkable work to put this together. The EU has given a lot of ground. Somewhat contrary to the mood music of the last few weeks.
The mood music was based on the idea that Boris wasn't as shameless as of course he fucking is.
The mood music changes so fast predicting things based on the most recent events is a fool’s game. I remember when TMay’s deal got hyped on here as well.
If the Spectator is right then the new deal is really quite different from the old. Whether it will prove better is harder to say but it has been fast and remarkable work to put this together. The EU has given a lot of ground. Somewhat contrary to the mood music of the last few weeks.
The mood music was based on the idea that Boris wasn't as shameless as of course he fucking is.
The mood music changes so fast predicting things based on the most recent events is a fool’s game. I remember when TMay’s deal got hyped on here as well.
Indeed. I for one was convinced that once all the initial noise died down it was going to pass the HoC first time!
If the Spectator is right then the new deal is really quite different from the old. Whether it will prove better is harder to say but it has been fast and remarkable work to put this together. The EU has given a lot of ground. Somewhat contrary to the mood music of the last few weeks.
The mood music was based on the idea that Boris wasn't as shameless as of course he fucking is.
Nah it was based on the inherent superiority and condescension of the EU, the incompetence and mendaciousness of the British government and a slight bizarre desire to see our own country humiliated for having the stupidity to vote leave. It turned out to be total unadulterated crap. Quelle surprise as our French friends would say.
Although this revised deal is better than May's deal for the EU of course.
Comments
So paradoxically a modest general election win might well be bad news for Johnson.
As for your suspicions about his tax cuts, I can only admire your optimism. I don’t have suspicions so much as certainties.
Why haven't the house subpoenad his tax returns if they have legally enforceable oversight?
Something to unite LEAVE and REMAIN!
In the circumstances that’s both an extraordinary achievement and deeply shocking, so I can understand why this reality is one they refuse to face. But it also means there is no way a non-Conservative government can be formed without an election. Possibly not even with one given the formidable barriers to a Labour majority.
Also, who is Sarah Jane?
https://www.bathnes.gov.uk/sites/default/files/sitedocuments/Your-Council/Elections/ukpge_statement_of_persons_nominated_nes.pdf
My point is relevant and perhaps not realised in NI or Scotland for that matter.
In England its the Conservative party and the Unionist bit doesn't seem to be of much interest.
https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/10/boris-johnsons-brexit-deal-eight-key-changes/
Farage won't live that tweet down today.
Absolutely no chance .
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/466202-buttigieg-emerges-as-new-threat-to-biden-after-debate
Bloody minded, self punishing hardship is the bread and butter of Presbyterianism.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-tax-returns-court-house-impeachment-congress-financial-records-a9152291.html
The Institute for Government has this:
https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainers/brexit-deal-withdrawal-agreement
Though of course that's cover for some people to vote against - we really can get other changes.
It is for the same reason the SNP won’t support him, although helpfully there he has categorically ruled out the one thing they would be willing to give him support in return for.
I appreciate Leavers think he’s the next Messiah but let’s be blunt he’s a pathological liar who would sell his grannie to become PM .
Bozo doesn’t do national interest he just does his interest.
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1184465365956550666?s=20
https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/1184904527226515456?s=19
He wouldn’t demand money for her.
Oh dear oh dear oh dear. That's quite funny.
Thanks, I will have a read.
Here is the entirety of what the Constitution says about it in reference to the House of Representatives.
"The House of Representatives shall chuse their Speaker and other Officers; and shall
have the sole Power of Impeachment."
That's it. All Impeachment is is a simple vote in the House of Representatives.
Everything else about the process is decided by the House itself.
So they are free to vote for the deal
The more interesting poll is a Leger poll in Quebec which shows the Liberals and Bloc Quebecois tied on 31% with the Conservatives on 16% and the NDP on 14%.
Since 2015 the Liberals are down five points and BQ up twelve points. The Conservatives are fractionally lower and NDP down by eleven. There's very little riding polling out there but what I've seen suggests BQ could well take seats from the Liberals, NDP and the Tories.
The 2015 Liberal win was predicated on 96 gains from the Conservatives, mainly in Ontario and the east and 51 gains from the NDP. The key for the Tories will be to regain ground in Ontario and in Atlantic Canada and simply piling up huge majorities in the Prairies isn't going to help Scheer that much.
That's pretty astonishing. Is he giving up?
Is he tacitly allowing Brexit and going for an election?!
Yes from me.
Nothing lasts forever.
Night all.
We're not leaving, mind.
I think we need more substantive evidence than subsamples to show that women and under 40 voters favour Boris by that much. IIRC subsamples pre-2017 GE showed May leading with 18-24 year olds at one stage. Wonder how that one went in the general....