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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Welcome to the Looking-Glass

SystemSystem Posts: 12,127
edited October 2019 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Welcome to the Looking-Glass

“When I use a word,” Humpty Dumpty said, in rather a scornful tone, “it means just what I choose it to mean – neither more nor less.” “The question is,” said Alice, “whether you can make words mean so many different things.” “The question is,” said Humpty Dumpty, “which is to be master – that’s all.” 

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Comments

  • PeterMannionPeterMannion Posts: 712
    TLDR
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,236
    edited October 2019
    The SNP may be furious they cannot use No Deal as an excuse to give them a good chance of Yes in any indyref2, I assure you a majority of Scots are not and will be happy Boris has a Deal with the EU that avoids No Deal.

    By avoiding a hard border in Ireland between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland Boris has also made it less likely Northern Ireland votes for a united Ireland.

    The Boris Deal thus delivers Brexit and removes the GB backstop (and ends free movement in GB and enables our own trade deals) and makes the breakup of the UK less likely
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,344
    It is however, a Deal, an agreement and will be sold to the public via the likes of the Mail, Telegraph and Express as such. The fact that in some, if not many, respects, it's a worse deal will be a matter of supreme indifference there.
    It is not until the pudding is served up to be eaten that we will see the proof.
  • Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 1,268
    williamglenn said:

    People used to laugh when I said that Farage didn’t want to leave the EU.

    He has been well and truly found out today.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,898
    HYUFD said:

    El_Capitano said:

    stodge said:

    To be fair, Johnson has, like all good politicians, the ability to fall in the sh1t and come up smelling of roses.

    1) Boris gets Deal through Parliament - he is a national hero and wins a big majority.
    2) Boris's Deal rejected by Parliament - Boris blames Opposition MPs. Voters back Boris and he wins a big majority.
    3) Boris's Deal rejected by EU - Boris blames Europeans and wins big majority.

    There has been no downside since the ComRes poll of June 12th showed only Boris among the leadership contenders capable of winning a large majority.

    There is also the Churchill/Attlee scenario:

    4) Boris gets Deal through Parliament; calls General Election; voters say "thanks very much, you've got Brexit done, now we're going to vote for someone else because we prefer them on domestic issues".
    Except Remainers and the anti Boris vote is now split between the LDs and Corbyn whereas the anti Churchill vote was united behind Attlee.

    Attlee also won after 14 years of Tory rule not only 9 years
    Attlee won after a national government populated by Labour, Conservative and Liberal politicians.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,301
    FPT

    Christ on a bike, look away now Manchester United fans.

    FSG does not buy sports clubs as a philanthropist; it works to increase their financial value. But it has taken no money out of Liverpool in nine years, except a modest £10m repayment of £110m loaned for the building of the main stand. The Glazers’ takeover, designed by Woodward to load £540m borrowings on a debt-free club, has since cost more than £1bn in interest, fees, refinancing penalties and other dead money.

    https://www.theguardian.com/football/2019/oct/17/glazers-legacy-manchester-united-liverpool
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,437
    edited October 2019
    So we have Farage now celebrating Benn Act, Starmer claiming it definitely worse deal, even though he won't have seen the text yet and Swinson of course claiming the only deal is to stay in the EU.

    The HoC will say no and its going to be more silly buggering around isn't it.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/MattCartoonist/status/1184868792037449728
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,584
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    FPT

    Christ on a bike, look away now Manchester United fans.

    FSG does not buy sports clubs as a philanthropist; it works to increase their financial value. But it has taken no money out of Liverpool in nine years, except a modest £10m repayment of £110m loaned for the building of the main stand. The Glazers’ takeover, designed by Woodward to load £540m borrowings on a debt-free club, has since cost more than £1bn in interest, fees, refinancing penalties and other dead money.

    https://www.theguardian.com/football/2019/oct/17/glazers-legacy-manchester-united-liverpool

    Yeah, once was enough thanks! :disappointed:
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,437
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    FPT

    Christ on a bike, look away now Manchester United fans.

    FSG does not buy sports clubs as a philanthropist; it works to increase their financial value. But it has taken no money out of Liverpool in nine years, except a modest £10m repayment of £110m loaned for the building of the main stand. The Glazers’ takeover, designed by Woodward to load £540m borrowings on a debt-free club, has since cost more than £1bn in interest, fees, refinancing penalties and other dead money.

    https://www.theguardian.com/football/2019/oct/17/glazers-legacy-manchester-united-liverpool

    Well they won't have to worry, shortly Jezza will be in power and he will be nationalising all the clubs anyway...
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    FPT

    Christ on a bike, look away now Manchester United fans.

    FSG does not buy sports clubs as a philanthropist; it works to increase their financial value. But it has taken no money out of Liverpool in nine years, except a modest £10m repayment of £110m loaned for the building of the main stand. The Glazers’ takeover, designed by Woodward to load £540m borrowings on a debt-free club, has since cost more than £1bn in interest, fees, refinancing penalties and other dead money.

    https://www.theguardian.com/football/2019/oct/17/glazers-legacy-manchester-united-liverpool

    Wow. That's enough to buy Neymar five times over (but not pay him).
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,123
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    FPT

    Christ on a bike, look away now Manchester United fans.

    FSG does not buy sports clubs as a philanthropist; it works to increase their financial value. But it has taken no money out of Liverpool in nine years, except a modest £10m repayment of £110m loaned for the building of the main stand. The Glazers’ takeover, designed by Woodward to load £540m borrowings on a debt-free club, has since cost more than £1bn in interest, fees, refinancing penalties and other dead money.

    https://www.theguardian.com/football/2019/oct/17/glazers-legacy-manchester-united-liverpool

    Had all that money been spent on players, they’d still be shit.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,236
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    So we have Farage now celebrating Benn Act, Starmer claiming it definitely worse deal, even though he won't have seen the text yet and Swinson of course claiming the only deal is to stay in the EU.

    The HoC will say no and its going to be more silly buggering around isn't it.

    No it wil be No Deal then as the EU have now refused further extension
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    https://twitter.com/christhebarker/status/1184840771201130498
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,437
    Bunch of p##sies....one posh tw@t gets a bit of a kicking after acting like billy big bollocks and they all go crying to their mums.

    Extinction Rebellion CANCELS plan for Gatwick demo after furious East London commuters drag them off roof of Tube train and rough them up

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7582765/Extinction-Rebellion-protesters-cause-misery-morning-commuters-converge-Canning-Town.html
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,584
    HYUFD said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    So we have Farage now celebrating Benn Act, Starmer claiming it definitely worse deal, even though he won't have seen the text yet and Swinson of course claiming the only deal is to stay in the EU.

    The HoC will say no and its going to be more silly buggering around isn't it.

    No it wil be No Deal then as the EU have now refused further extension
    Source?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,236
    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    El_Capitano said:

    stodge said:

    To be fair, Johnson has, like all good politicians, the ability to fall in the sh1t and come up smelling of roses.

    1) Boris gets Deal through Parliament - he is a national hero and wins a big majority.
    2) Boris's Deal rejected by Parliament - Boris blames Opposition MPs. Voters back Boris and he wins a big majority.
    3) Boris's Deal rejected by EU - Boris blames Europeans and wins big majority.

    There has been no downside since the ComRes poll of June 12th showed only Boris among the leadership contenders capable of winning a large majority.

    There is also the Churchill/Attlee scenario:

    4) Boris gets Deal through Parliament; calls General Election; voters say "thanks very much, you've got Brexit done, now we're going to vote for someone else because we prefer them on domestic issues".
    Except Remainers and the anti Boris vote is now split between the LDs and Corbyn whereas the anti Churchill vote was united behind Attlee.

    Attlee also won after 14 years of Tory rule not only 9 years
    Attlee won after a national government populated by Labour, Conservative and Liberal politicians.
    With a Tory majority in the Commons throughout those years and a Tory PM
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,425
    HYUFD said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    So we have Farage now celebrating Benn Act, Starmer claiming it definitely worse deal, even though he won't have seen the text yet and Swinson of course claiming the only deal is to stay in the EU.

    The HoC will say no and its going to be more silly buggering around isn't it.

    No it wil be No Deal then as the EU have now refused further extension
    No they haven’t. The EU will grant an extension.
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    HYUFD said:

    The SNP may be furious they cannot use No Deal as an excuse to give them a good chance of Yes in any indyref2, I assure you a majority of Scots are not and will be happy Boris has a Deal with the EU that avoids No Deal.

    By avoiding a hard border in Ireland between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland Boris has also made it less likely Northern Ireland votes for a united Ireland.

    The Boris Deal thus delivers Brexit and removes the GB backstop (and ends free movement in GB and enables our own trade deals) and makes the breakup of the UK less likely

    I am not so sure i agree with any of your analysis. Were you scouting out today, the irish sea for an economic border?! :wink:
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,152
    Anorak said:

    https://twitter.com/christhebarker/status/1184840771201130498

    It's amazing how Farage has imploded this afternoon!

    Wonder what Widdy thinks about him? :D
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,236
    Benpointer said:

    HYUFD said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    So we have Farage now celebrating Benn Act, Starmer claiming it definitely worse deal, even though he won't have seen the text yet and Swinson of course claiming the only deal is to stay in the EU.

    The HoC will say no and its going to be more silly buggering around isn't it.

    No it wil be No Deal then as the EU have now refused further extension
    Source?
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/10/17/brexit-deal-latest-news-boris-johnson-eu-summit-brussels-barnier/
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,816
    Gallowgate said:

    HYUFD said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    So we have Farage now celebrating Benn Act, Starmer claiming it definitely worse deal, even though he won't have seen the text yet and Swinson of course claiming the only deal is to stay in the EU.

    The HoC will say no and its going to be more silly buggering around isn't it.

    No it wil be No Deal then as the EU have now refused further extension
    No they haven’t. The EU will grant an extension.
    Will it?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,236
    Gallowgate said:

    HYUFD said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    So we have Farage now celebrating Benn Act, Starmer claiming it definitely worse deal, even though he won't have seen the text yet and Swinson of course claiming the only deal is to stay in the EU.

    The HoC will say no and its going to be more silly buggering around isn't it.

    No it wil be No Deal then as the EU have now refused further extension
    No they haven’t. The EU will grant an extension.
    Nope, Juncker ruled out further extension today, it is the Boris Deal or No Deal
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/10/17/brexit-deal-latest-news-boris-johnson-eu-summit-brussels-barnier/
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    It may have helped Johnson if there was longer time between the Summit and MPs voting on this .
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,425
    HYUFD said:

    Gallowgate said:

    HYUFD said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    So we have Farage now celebrating Benn Act, Starmer claiming it definitely worse deal, even though he won't have seen the text yet and Swinson of course claiming the only deal is to stay in the EU.

    The HoC will say no and its going to be more silly buggering around isn't it.

    No it wil be No Deal then as the EU have now refused further extension
    No they haven’t. The EU will grant an extension.
    Nope, Juncker ruled out further extension today, it is the Boris Deal or No Deal
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/10/17/brexit-deal-latest-news-boris-johnson-eu-summit-brussels-barnier/
    Stop spouting this nonsense.

    https://twitter.com/albertonardelli/status/1184864611327234050?s=21
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,349
    Gallowgate said:

    HYUFD said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    So we have Farage now celebrating Benn Act, Starmer claiming it definitely worse deal, even though he won't have seen the text yet and Swinson of course claiming the only deal is to stay in the EU.

    The HoC will say no and its going to be more silly buggering around isn't it.

    No it wil be No Deal then as the EU have now refused further extension
    No they haven’t. The EU will grant an extension.
    That way lies No Deal.....
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,551
    HYUFD said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    So we have Farage now celebrating Benn Act, Starmer claiming it definitely worse deal, even though he won't have seen the text yet and Swinson of course claiming the only deal is to stay in the EU.

    The HoC will say no and its going to be more silly buggering around isn't it.

    No it wil be No Deal then as the EU have now refused further extension
    No they haven't. They haven't mentioned it.
  • PeterCPeterC Posts: 1,275
    HYUFD said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    So we have Farage now celebrating Benn Act, Starmer claiming it definitely worse deal, even though he won't have seen the text yet and Swinson of course claiming the only deal is to stay in the EU.

    The HoC will say no and its going to be more silly buggering around isn't it.

    No it wil be No Deal then as the EU have now refused further extension
    I would't be so sure about that. It has not been confirmed by a formal Council statement; it was just an off the cuff remark by Jean Claude.
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    nico67 said:

    It may have helped Johnson if there was longer time between the Summit and MPs voting on this .

    I actually think a shorter time is better. Makes it harder for the objectors to build up a head of steam and also puts waverers under the spotlight.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,236
    Gallowgate said:

    HYUFD said:

    Gallowgate said:

    HYUFD said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    So we have Farage now celebrating Benn Act, Starmer claiming it definitely worse deal, even though he won't have seen the text yet and Swinson of course claiming the only deal is to stay in the EU.

    The HoC will say no and its going to be more silly buggering around isn't it.

    No it wil be No Deal then as the EU have now refused further extension
    No they haven’t. The EU will grant an extension.
    Nope, Juncker ruled out further extension today, it is the Boris Deal or No Deal
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/10/17/brexit-deal-latest-news-boris-johnson-eu-summit-brussels-barnier/
    Stop spouting this nonsense.

    https://twitter.com/albertonardelli/status/1184864611327234050?s=21
    It would require a Commons vote for EUref2 or a GE, otherwise as Juncker said this afternoon if the Commons rejects the Boris Deal the EU will refuse further extension and it will be No Deal Brexit
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,152
    Well I predicted Boris would get a deal.

    I predicted there would be a Saturday Sitting.

    I predicted the Saturday Sitting would pass the deal.

    But number three was always going to be the tricky part. ;)
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,584
    HYUFD said:

    Benpointer said:

    HYUFD said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    So we have Farage now celebrating Benn Act, Starmer claiming it definitely worse deal, even though he won't have seen the text yet and Swinson of course claiming the only deal is to stay in the EU.

    The HoC will say no and its going to be more silly buggering around isn't it.

    No it wil be No Deal then as the EU have now refused further extension
    Source?
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/10/17/brexit-deal-latest-news-boris-johnson-eu-summit-brussels-barnier/
    So nothing concrete then.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,476
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    FPT

    Christ on a bike, look away now Manchester United fans.

    FSG does not buy sports clubs as a philanthropist; it works to increase their financial value. But it has taken no money out of Liverpool in nine years, except a modest £10m repayment of £110m loaned for the building of the main stand. The Glazers’ takeover, designed by Woodward to load £540m borrowings on a debt-free club, has since cost more than £1bn in interest, fees, refinancing penalties and other dead money.

    https://www.theguardian.com/football/2019/oct/17/glazers-legacy-manchester-united-liverpool

    Well they won't have to worry, shortly Jezza will be in power and he will be nationalising all the clubs anyway...
    Jezza plan is rather better than that, he wants fans associations owning a controlling stake, ala Barca, redistribution of revenue further down the pyramid, and the reintroduction of safe standing areas. I think that would get widespread support amongst fans. Not all clubs have such wise and beloved owners as we do in Leicester.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,425
    HYUFD said:

    Gallowgate said:

    HYUFD said:

    Gallowgate said:

    HYUFD said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    So we have Farage now celebrating Benn Act, Starmer claiming it definitely worse deal, even though he won't have seen the text yet and Swinson of course claiming the only deal is to stay in the EU.

    The HoC will say no and its going to be more silly buggering around isn't it.

    No it wil be No Deal then as the EU have now refused further extension
    No they haven’t. The EU will grant an extension.
    Nope, Juncker ruled out further extension today, it is the Boris Deal or No Deal
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/10/17/brexit-deal-latest-news-boris-johnson-eu-summit-brussels-barnier/
    Stop spouting this nonsense.

    https://twitter.com/albertonardelli/status/1184864611327234050?s=21
    It would require a Commons vote for EUref2 or a GE, otherwise as Juncker said this afternoon if the Commons rejects the Boris Deal the EU will refuse further extension and it will be No Deal Brexit
    We have no idea what it would mean or require. Neither do you.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 62,749
    Benpointer said:

    HYUFD said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    So we have Farage now celebrating Benn Act, Starmer claiming it definitely worse deal, even though he won't have seen the text yet and Swinson of course claiming the only deal is to stay in the EU.

    The HoC will say no and its going to be more silly buggering around isn't it.

    No it wil be No Deal then as the EU have now refused further extension
    Source?
    HYUFD is not accurate.

    Junckers, the Belgium PM and Macron have all said no prolongation to the deal on the 31st October but as with anything EU it is not yet definitive
  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,490
    HYUFD said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    So we have Farage now celebrating Benn Act, Starmer claiming it definitely worse deal, even though he won't have seen the text yet and Swinson of course claiming the only deal is to stay in the EU.

    The HoC will say no and its going to be more silly buggering around isn't it.

    No it wil be No Deal then as the EU have now refused further extension
    Junker saying 'we have a deal so there is no need for an extension' is not the same thing as him saying that there will be no extension. it is also in the gift of the council to decide not his. most of this was signalling, prompted by boris, to allow a deal/nodeal vote on saturday.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,236
    Benpointer said:

    HYUFD said:

    Benpointer said:

    HYUFD said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    So we have Farage now celebrating Benn Act, Starmer claiming it definitely worse deal, even though he won't have seen the text yet and Swinson of course claiming the only deal is to stay in the EU.

    The HoC will say no and its going to be more silly buggering around isn't it.

    No it wil be No Deal then as the EU have now refused further extension
    Source?
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/10/17/brexit-deal-latest-news-boris-johnson-eu-summit-brussels-barnier/
    So nothing concrete then.
    Nope, absolutely set in stone, it is the Boris Deal or No Deal, no further extension from the EU without EUref2 or a GE
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,551
    HYUFD said:

    Gallowgate said:

    HYUFD said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    So we have Farage now celebrating Benn Act, Starmer claiming it definitely worse deal, even though he won't have seen the text yet and Swinson of course claiming the only deal is to stay in the EU.

    The HoC will say no and its going to be more silly buggering around isn't it.

    No it wil be No Deal then as the EU have now refused further extension
    No they haven’t. The EU will grant an extension.
    Nope, Juncker ruled out further extension today, it is the Boris Deal or No Deal
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/10/17/brexit-deal-latest-news-boris-johnson-eu-summit-brussels-barnier/
    See the Katya Adler thread.

    https://twitter.com/BBCkatyaadler/status/1184831946360328194

    Juncker said "If there is a deal ... there is no need for a prologation". Note the IF.
  • surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,469
    HYUFD said:

    Gallowgate said:

    HYUFD said:

    Gallowgate said:

    HYUFD said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    So we have Farage now celebrating Benn Act, Starmer claiming it definitely worse deal, even though he won't have seen the text yet and Swinson of course claiming the only deal is to stay in the EU.

    The HoC will say no and its going to be more silly buggering around isn't it.

    No it wil be No Deal then as the EU have now refused further extension
    No they haven’t. The EU will grant an extension.
    Nope, Juncker ruled out further extension today, it is the Boris Deal or No Deal
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/10/17/brexit-deal-latest-news-boris-johnson-eu-summit-brussels-barnier/
    Stop spouting this nonsense.

    https://twitter.com/albertonardelli/status/1184864611327234050?s=21
    It would require a Commons vote for EUref2 or a GE, otherwise as Juncker said this afternoon if the Commons rejects the Boris Deal the EU will refuse further extension and it will be No Deal Brexit
    Even the EU follows opinion polls and views in the HoC.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,349
    Barnesian said:

    HYUFD said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    So we have Farage now celebrating Benn Act, Starmer claiming it definitely worse deal, even though he won't have seen the text yet and Swinson of course claiming the only deal is to stay in the EU.

    The HoC will say no and its going to be more silly buggering around isn't it.

    No it wil be No Deal then as the EU have now refused further extension
    No they haven't. They haven't mentioned it.
    Oh, they have mentioned not granting it. Just not in the communique.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 62,749
    Gallowgate said:

    HYUFD said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    So we have Farage now celebrating Benn Act, Starmer claiming it definitely worse deal, even though he won't have seen the text yet and Swinson of course claiming the only deal is to stay in the EU.

    The HoC will say no and its going to be more silly buggering around isn't it.

    No it wil be No Deal then as the EU have now refused further extension
    No they haven’t. The EU will grant an extension.
    Neither of those are confirmed by any means
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    Barnier once again totally class .

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,236
    edited October 2019
    Barnesian said:

    HYUFD said:

    Gallowgate said:

    HYUFD said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    So we have Farage now celebrating Benn Act, Starmer claiming it definitely worse deal, even though he won't have seen the text yet and Swinson of course claiming the only deal is to stay in the EU.

    The HoC will say no and its going to be more silly buggering around isn't it.

    No it wil be No Deal then as the EU have now refused further extension
    No they haven’t. The EU will grant an extension.
    Nope, Juncker ruled out further extension today, it is the Boris Deal or No Deal
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/10/17/brexit-deal-latest-news-boris-johnson-eu-summit-brussels-barnier/
    See the Katya Adler thread.

    https://twitter.com/BBCkatyaadler/status/1184831946360328194

    Juncker said "If there is a deal ... there is no need for a prologation". Note the IF.
    Juncker is just confirming what the French government has made clear, either the Commons votes for the Deal or the EU will refuse further extension without EUref2 or a GE
  • surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,469
    Barnesian said:

    HYUFD said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    So we have Farage now celebrating Benn Act, Starmer claiming it definitely worse deal, even though he won't have seen the text yet and Swinson of course claiming the only deal is to stay in the EU.

    The HoC will say no and its going to be more silly buggering around isn't it.

    No it wil be No Deal then as the EU have now refused further extension
    No they haven't. They haven't mentioned it.
    Exactly. HYUFD is propagating Project Fear.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,360
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Benpointer said:

    HYUFD said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    So we have Farage now celebrating Benn Act, Starmer claiming it definitely worse deal, even though he won't have seen the text yet and Swinson of course claiming the only deal is to stay in the EU.

    The HoC will say no and its going to be more silly buggering around isn't it.

    No it wil be No Deal then as the EU have now refused further extension
    Source?
    HYUFD is not accurate.

    Junckers, the Belgium PM and Macron have all said no prolongation to the deal on the 31st October but as with anything EU it is not yet definitive
    They have not yet been asked for an extension. The issue of what happens when/if the Commons rejects the deal (I predict it will) and/or votes for deal subject to referendum is unknown. There is no evidence that advance prognostications from Europe about future contingencies mean anything.

  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    edited October 2019
    It's fair to say those that oppose the deal and hope for an extension are dicing with death. Boris will hopefully get within single figures if he loses and at that point you'd assume the EU27 will expect the deal to pass second time round.

    Only if the deal is sunk by a relatively large margin will the EU take a look at a longer extension.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,236
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Benpointer said:

    HYUFD said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    So we have Farage now celebrating Benn Act, Starmer claiming it definitely worse deal, even though he won't have seen the text yet and Swinson of course claiming the only deal is to stay in the EU.

    The HoC will say no and its going to be more silly buggering around isn't it.

    No it wil be No Deal then as the EU have now refused further extension
    Source?
    HYUFD is not accurate.

    Junckers, the Belgium PM and Macron have all said no prolongation to the deal on the 31st October but as with anything EU it is not yet definitive
    Nope, I am accurate.

    It is also absolutely definitive and confirms the French position of no extension without the Deal passing, EUref2 or a GE
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 62,749
    Gallowgate said:

    HYUFD said:

    Gallowgate said:

    HYUFD said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    So we have Farage now celebrating Benn Act, Starmer claiming it definitely worse deal, even though he won't have seen the text yet and Swinson of course claiming the only deal is to stay in the EU.

    The HoC will say no and its going to be more silly buggering around isn't it.

    No it wil be No Deal then as the EU have now refused further extension
    No they haven’t. The EU will grant an extension.
    Nope, Juncker ruled out further extension today, it is the Boris Deal or No Deal
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/10/17/brexit-deal-latest-news-boris-johnson-eu-summit-brussels-barnier/
    Stop spouting this nonsense.

    https://twitter.com/albertonardelli/status/1184864611327234050?s=21
    I think that is where we are. It is far from certain the EU 27 would grant an extension in view of the leaders on cameras comments today and a long extension would be unlikely
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,236
    Gallowgate said:

    HYUFD said:

    Gallowgate said:

    HYUFD said:

    Gallowgate said:

    HYUFD said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    So we have Farage now celebrating Benn Act, Starmer claiming it definitely worse deal, even though he won't have seen the text yet and Swinson of course claiming the only deal is to stay in the EU.

    The HoC will say no and its going to be more silly buggering around isn't it.

    No it wil be No Deal then as the EU have now refused further extension
    No they haven’t. The EU will grant an extension.
    Nope, Juncker ruled out further extension today, it is the Boris Deal or No Deal
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/10/17/brexit-deal-latest-news-boris-johnson-eu-summit-brussels-barnier/
    Stop spouting this nonsense.

    https://twitter.com/albertonardelli/status/1184864611327234050?s=21
    It would require a Commons vote for EUref2 or a GE, otherwise as Juncker said this afternoon if the Commons rejects the Boris Deal the EU will refuse further extension and it will be No Deal Brexit
    We have no idea what it would mean or require. Neither do you.
    I do absolutely, it is the Boris Deal, EUref2 or a GE or No Deal Brexit
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,425
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Gallowgate said:

    HYUFD said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    So we have Farage now celebrating Benn Act, Starmer claiming it definitely worse deal, even though he won't have seen the text yet and Swinson of course claiming the only deal is to stay in the EU.

    The HoC will say no and its going to be more silly buggering around isn't it.

    No it wil be No Deal then as the EU have now refused further extension
    No they haven’t. The EU will grant an extension.
    Neither of those are confirmed by any means
    Well you’re right but I’m very confident about it.

    Ultimately the EU want us to stay. Even the French.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,425
    HYUFD said:

    Gallowgate said:

    HYUFD said:

    Gallowgate said:

    HYUFD said:

    Gallowgate said:

    HYUFD said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    So we have Farage now celebrating Benn Act, Starmer claiming it definitely worse deal, even though he won't have seen the text yet and Swinson of course claiming the only deal is to stay in the EU.

    The HoC will say no and its going to be more silly buggering around isn't it.

    No it wil be No Deal then as the EU have now refused further extension
    No they haven’t. The EU will grant an extension.
    Nope, Juncker ruled out further extension today, it is the Boris Deal or No Deal
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/10/17/brexit-deal-latest-news-boris-johnson-eu-summit-brussels-barnier/
    Stop spouting this nonsense.

    https://twitter.com/albertonardelli/status/1184864611327234050?s=21
    It would require a Commons vote for EUref2 or a GE, otherwise as Juncker said this afternoon if the Commons rejects the Boris Deal the EU will refuse further extension and it will be No Deal Brexit
    We have no idea what it would mean or require. Neither do you.
    I do absolutely, it is the Boris Deal, EUref2 or a GE or No Deal Brexit
    So you’ve listed every option. Okay.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,236
    spudgfsh said:

    HYUFD said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    So we have Farage now celebrating Benn Act, Starmer claiming it definitely worse deal, even though he won't have seen the text yet and Swinson of course claiming the only deal is to stay in the EU.

    The HoC will say no and its going to be more silly buggering around isn't it.

    No it wil be No Deal then as the EU have now refused further extension
    Junker saying 'we have a deal so there is no need for an extension' is not the same thing as him saying that there will be no extension. it is also in the gift of the council to decide not his. most of this was signalling, prompted by boris, to allow a deal/nodeal vote on saturday.
    It is if the UK Parliament rejects the Deal there is no need for an extension without a change of circumstance ie EUref2 or a GE
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,236
    surbiton19 said:

    Barnesian said:

    HYUFD said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    So we have Farage now celebrating Benn Act, Starmer claiming it definitely worse deal, even though he won't have seen the text yet and Swinson of course claiming the only deal is to stay in the EU.

    The HoC will say no and its going to be more silly buggering around isn't it.

    No it wil be No Deal then as the EU have now refused further extension
    No they haven't. They haven't mentioned it.
    Exactly. HYUFD is propagating Project Fear.
    No project reality
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,898
    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    El_Capitano said:

    stodge said:

    To be fair, Johnson has, like all good politicians, the ability to fall in the sh1t and come up smelling of roses.

    1) Boris gets Deal through Parliament - he is a national hero and wins a big majority.
    2) Boris's Deal rejected by Parliament - Boris blames Opposition MPs. Voters back Boris and he wins a big majority.
    3) Boris's Deal rejected by EU - Boris blames Europeans and wins big majority.

    There has been no downside since the ComRes poll of June 12th showed only Boris among the leadership contenders capable of winning a large majority.

    There is also the Churchill/Attlee scenario:

    4) Boris gets Deal through Parliament; calls General Election; voters say "thanks very much, you've got Brexit done, now we're going to vote for someone else because we prefer them on domestic issues".
    Except Remainers and the anti Boris vote is now split between the LDs and Corbyn whereas the anti Churchill vote was united behind Attlee.

    Attlee also won after 14 years of Tory rule not only 9 years
    Attlee won after a national government populated by Labour, Conservative and Liberal politicians.
    With a Tory majority in the Commons throughout those years and a Tory PM
    With a National Government majority. There were National Conservatives, National Liberals and National Labour members. Sure, there were non-National government MPs but it is a gross mischaraterisation of the period to claim it as a straight Conservative majority.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 62,749
    HYUFD said:

    Benpointer said:

    HYUFD said:

    Benpointer said:

    HYUFD said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    So we have Farage now celebrating Benn Act, Starmer claiming it definitely worse deal, even though he won't have seen the text yet and Swinson of course claiming the only deal is to stay in the EU.

    The HoC will say no and its going to be more silly buggering around isn't it.

    No it wil be No Deal then as the EU have now refused further extension
    Source?
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/10/17/brexit-deal-latest-news-boris-johnson-eu-summit-brussels-barnier/
    So nothing concrete then.
    Nope, absolutely set in stone, it is the Boris Deal or No Deal, no further extension from the EU without EUref2 or a GE
    You do try posters patience.

    It is not set in stone and while undesirable it is possible under certain circumstances but they are complex
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,790
    Guys, a quick question. The vote on Saturday? What time of day is it?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,700
    Mr. Gate, more importantly, Macron's one of the more federalist leaders. Going against the herd cuts against that.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,551
    HYUFD said:

    Gallowgate said:

    HYUFD said:

    Gallowgate said:

    HYUFD said:

    Gallowgate said:

    HYUFD said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    So we have Farage now celebrating Benn Act, Starmer claiming it definitely worse deal, even though he won't have seen the text yet and Swinson of course claiming the only deal is to stay in the EU.

    The HoC will say no and its going to be more silly buggering around isn't it.

    No it wil be No Deal then as the EU have now refused further extension
    No they haven’t. The EU will grant an extension.
    Nope, Juncker ruled out further extension today, it is the Boris Deal or No Deal
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/10/17/brexit-deal-latest-news-boris-johnson-eu-summit-brussels-barnier/
    Stop spouting this nonsense.

    https://twitter.com/albertonardelli/status/1184864611327234050?s=21
    It would require a Commons vote for EUref2 or a GE, otherwise as Juncker said this afternoon if the Commons rejects the Boris Deal the EU will refuse further extension and it will be No Deal Brexit
    We have no idea what it would mean or require. Neither do you.
    I do absolutely, it is the Boris Deal, EUref2 or a GE or No Deal Brexit
    You live in an absolute world. I hope you don't bet. Betting is a probabilistic world.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,311
    https://twitter.com/MichaelPDeacon/status/1184871537461092358
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,236
    edited October 2019
    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    El_Capitano said:

    stodge said:

    To be fair, Johnson has, like all good politicians, the ability to fall in the sh1t and come up smelling of roses.

    1) Boris gets Deal through Parliament - he is a national hero and wins a big majority.
    2) Boris's Deal rejected by Parliament - Boris blames Opposition MPs. Voters back Boris and he wins a big majority.
    3) Boris's Deal rejected by EU - Boris blames Europeans and wins big majority.

    There has been no downside since the ComRes poll of June 12th showed only Boris among the leadership contenders capable of winning a large majority.

    There is also the Churchill/Attlee scenario:

    4) Boris gets Deal through Parliament; calls General Election; voters say "thanks very much, you've got Brexit done, now we're going to vote for someone else because we prefer them on domestic issues".
    Except Remainers and the anti Boris vote is now split between the LDs and Corbyn whereas the anti Churchill vote was united behind Attlee.

    Attlee also won after 14 years of Tory rule not only 9 years
    Attlee won after a national government populated by Labour, Conservative and Liberal politicians.
    With a Tory majority in the Commons throughout those years and a Tory PM
    With a National Government majority. There were National Conservatives, National Liberals and National Labour members. Sure, there were non-National government MPs but it is a gross mischaraterisation of the period to claim it as a straight Conservative majority.
    The National Conservatives won a landslide in the 1935 election and there was a big Tory majority from 1935 to 1945 in the Commons.

    So my statement it was a Commons majority for the Tories throughout those years was 100% correct
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201
    Gallowgate said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Gallowgate said:

    HYUFD said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    So we have Farage now celebrating Benn Act, Starmer claiming it definitely worse deal, even though he won't have seen the text yet and Swinson of course claiming the only deal is to stay in the EU.

    The HoC will say no and its going to be more silly buggering around isn't it.

    No it wil be No Deal then as the EU have now refused further extension
    No they haven’t. The EU will grant an extension.
    Neither of those are confirmed by any means
    Well you’re right but I’m very confident about it.

    Ultimately the EU want us to stay. Even the French.
    I think they initially did want us to stay. over time and especially the eu election result has made them rethink. I think their current view is that the UK needs to spend time out of the EU as painlessly as possible for them and then potentially rejoin.

    They have essentially made the decision that they can progress the EU without us.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,476
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Gallowgate said:

    HYUFD said:

    Gallowgate said:

    HYUFD said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    So we have Farage now celebrating Benn Act, Starmer claiming it definitely worse deal, even though he won't have seen the text yet and Swinson of course claiming the only deal is to stay in the EU.

    The HoC will say no and its going to be more silly buggering around isn't it.

    No it wil be No Deal then as the EU have now refused further extension
    No they haven’t. The EU will grant an extension.
    Nope, Juncker ruled out further extension today, it is the Boris Deal or No Deal
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/10/17/brexit-deal-latest-news-boris-johnson-eu-summit-brussels-barnier/
    Stop spouting this nonsense.

    https://twitter.com/albertonardelli/status/1184864611327234050?s=21
    I think that is where we are. It is far from certain the EU 27 would grant an extension in view of the leaders on cameras comments today and a long extension would be unlikely
    I think they would for a GE or referendum but not otherwise.
    Gallowgate said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Gallowgate said:

    HYUFD said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    So we have Farage now celebrating Benn Act, Starmer claiming it definitely worse deal, even though he won't have seen the text yet and Swinson of course claiming the only deal is to stay in the EU.

    The HoC will say no and its going to be more silly buggering around isn't it.

    No it wil be No Deal then as the EU have now refused further extension
    No they haven’t. The EU will grant an extension.
    Neither of those are confirmed by any means
    Well you’re right but I’m very confident about it.

    Ultimately the EU want us to stay. Even the French.
    I don't think they do want us to stay (or Rejoin in the near future), as the WA and PD gives them pretty much everything they want.
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    Gallowgate said:

    HYUFD said:

    Gallowgate said:

    HYUFD said:

    Gallowgate said:

    HYUFD said:

    Gallowgate said:

    HYUFD said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    So we have Farage now celebrating Benn Act, Starmer claiming it definitely worse deal, even though he won't have seen the text yet and Swinson of course claiming the only deal is to stay in the EU.

    The HoC will say no and its going to be more silly buggering around isn't it.

    No it wil be No Deal then as the EU have now refused further extension
    No they haven’t. The EU will grant an extension.
    Nope, Juncker ruled out further extension today, it is the Boris Deal or No Deal
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/10/17/brexit-deal-latest-news-boris-johnson-eu-summit-brussels-barnier/
    Stop spouting this nonsense.

    https://twitter.com/albertonardelli/status/1184864611327234050?s=21
    It would require a Commons vote for EUref2 or a GE, otherwise as Juncker said this afternoon if the Commons rejects the Boris Deal the EU will refuse further extension and it will be No Deal Brexit
    We have no idea what it would mean or require. Neither do you.
    I do absolutely, it is the Boris Deal, EUref2 or a GE or No Deal Brexit
    So you’ve listed every option. Okay.
    HYUFD is John Snagge and I claim my five pounds.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,584
    Great thread header btw @Cyclefree - as usual. Thanks!
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,476
    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    El_Capitano said:

    stodge said:

    To be fair, Johnson has, like all good politicians, the ability to fall in the sh1t and come up smelling of roses.

    1) Boris gets Deal through Parliament - he is a national hero and wins a big majority.
    2) Boris's Deal rejected by Parliament - Boris blames Opposition MPs. Voters back Boris and he wins a big majority.
    3) Boris's Deal rejected by EU - Boris blames Europeans and wins big majority.

    There has been no downside since the ComRes poll of June 12th showed only Boris among the leadership contenders capable of winning a large majority.

    There is also the Churchill/Attlee scenario:

    4) Boris gets Deal through Parliament; calls General Election; voters say "thanks very much, you've got Brexit done, now we're going to vote for someone else because we prefer them on domestic issues".
    Except Remainers and the anti Boris vote is now split between the LDs and Corbyn whereas the anti Churchill vote was united behind Attlee.

    Attlee also won after 14 years of Tory rule not only 9 years
    Attlee won after a national government populated by Labour, Conservative and Liberal politicians.
    With a Tory majority in the Commons throughout those years and a Tory PM
    With a National Government majority. There were National Conservatives, National Liberals and National Labour members. Sure, there were non-National government MPs but it is a gross mischaraterisation of the period to claim it as a straight Conservative majority.
    The National Conservatives won a landslide in the 1935 election and there was a big Tory majority from 1935 to 1945 in the Commons.

    So my statement it was a Commons majority for the Tories throughout those years was 100% correct
    Yes, but that was not the claim. The wartime government was a coalition, and Attlee certainly gained in credibility by being Deputy PM.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 62,749
    surbiton19 said:

    Barnesian said:

    HYUFD said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    So we have Farage now celebrating Benn Act, Starmer claiming it definitely worse deal, even though he won't have seen the text yet and Swinson of course claiming the only deal is to stay in the EU.

    The HoC will say no and its going to be more silly buggering around isn't it.

    No it wil be No Deal then as the EU have now refused further extension
    No they haven't. They haven't mentioned it.
    Exactly. HYUFD is propagating Project Fear.
    No he is not. He is misinterpreting words and meaning as he so often does.

    Just wait what happens when the next polls come out. The word landslide may crop up again
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    edited October 2019
    Throughout all the crap and bile thrown at the EU by the right wing press and some UK politicians they have maintained both unity and dignity .

    Barniers comments at the end should shame all those who have treated the EU as the enemy.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,236
    Barnesian said:

    HYUFD said:

    Gallowgate said:

    HYUFD said:

    Gallowgate said:

    HYUFD said:

    Gallowgate said:

    HYUFD said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    So we have Farage now celebrating Benn Act, Starmer claiming it definitely worse deal, even though he won't have seen the text yet and Swinson of course claiming the only deal is to stay in the EU.

    The HoC will say no and its going to be more silly buggering around isn't it.

    No it wil be No Deal then as the EU have now refused further extension
    No they haven’t. The EU will grant an extension.
    Nope, Juncker ruled out further extension today, it is the Boris Deal or No Deal
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/10/17/brexit-deal-latest-news-boris-johnson-eu-summit-brussels-barnier/
    Stop spouting this nonsense.

    https://twitter.com/albertonardelli/status/1184864611327234050?s=21
    It would require a Commons vote for EUref2 or a GE, otherwise as Juncker said this afternoon if the Commons rejects the Boris Deal the EU will refuse further extension and it will be No Deal Brexit
    We have no idea what it would mean or require. Neither do you.
    I do absolutely, it is the Boris Deal, EUref2 or a GE or No Deal Brexit
    You live in an absolute world. I hope you don't bet. Betting is a probabilistic world.
    I don't bet generally no, I am a political activist not a better
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    HYUFD said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Benpointer said:

    HYUFD said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    So we have Farage now celebrating Benn Act, Starmer claiming it definitely worse deal, even though he won't have seen the text yet and Swinson of course claiming the only deal is to stay in the EU.

    The HoC will say no and its going to be more silly buggering around isn't it.

    No it wil be No Deal then as the EU have now refused further extension
    Source?
    HYUFD is not accurate.

    Junckers, the Belgium PM and Macron have all said no prolongation to the deal on the 31st October but as with anything EU it is not yet definitive
    Nope, I am accurate.

    It is also absolutely definitive and confirms the French position of no extension without the Deal passing, EUref2 or a GE
    Tusk has just refused to rule out a further extension been granted.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,898
    PeterC said:

    HYUFD said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    So we have Farage now celebrating Benn Act, Starmer claiming it definitely worse deal, even though he won't have seen the text yet and Swinson of course claiming the only deal is to stay in the EU.

    The HoC will say no and its going to be more silly buggering around isn't it.

    No it wil be No Deal then as the EU have now refused further extension
    I would't be so sure about that. It has not been confirmed by a formal Council statement; it was just an off the cuff remark by Jean Claude.
    Specifically, it's not clear whether he was referring to a deal passed by the Parliament, or a deal merely agreed between the governments. If the former, then he wasn't ruling out an extension; if the latter, then he was.

    And, Mr Juncker doesn't get a vote anyway: he could be 100% opposed and the EUCO could grant an extension anyway.
  • matthiasfromhamburgmatthiasfromhamburg Posts: 957
    HYUFD said:

    spudgfsh said:

    HYUFD said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    So we have Farage now celebrating Benn Act, Starmer claiming it definitely worse deal, even though he won't have seen the text yet and Swinson of course claiming the only deal is to stay in the EU.

    The HoC will say no and its going to be more silly buggering around isn't it.

    No it wil be No Deal then as the EU have now refused further extension
    Junker saying 'we have a deal so there is no need for an extension' is not the same thing as him saying that there will be no extension. it is also in the gift of the council to decide not his. most of this was signalling, prompted by boris, to allow a deal/nodeal vote on saturday.
    It is if the UK Parliament rejects the Deal there is no need for an extension without a change of circumstance ie EUref2 or a GE
    HYUFD makes a lot of statements that I find questionable, but in this instance he assesses the situation correctly, in my humble view.
    British pundits of any colour seem to severely underestimate the appetite in many, many member states to conclude the matter, now.
  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,490
    HYUFD said:

    spudgfsh said:

    HYUFD said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    So we have Farage now celebrating Benn Act, Starmer claiming it definitely worse deal, even though he won't have seen the text yet and Swinson of course claiming the only deal is to stay in the EU.

    The HoC will say no and its going to be more silly buggering around isn't it.

    No it wil be No Deal then as the EU have now refused further extension
    Junker saying 'we have a deal so there is no need for an extension' is not the same thing as him saying that there will be no extension. it is also in the gift of the council to decide not his. most of this was signalling, prompted by boris, to allow a deal/nodeal vote on saturday.
    It is if the UK Parliament rejects the Deal there is no need for an extension without a change of circumstance ie EUref2 or a GE
    you don't actually believe that the MPs will vote down this deal and then just stop do you?

    they will be forced to vote for something, and probable be forced to keep voting until something come out. I suspect that an amendment with a referendum will pass the commons and an extension for it to take place will happen.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    edited October 2019
    Big_G_NorthWales said:


    I think that is where we are. It is far from certain the EU 27 would grant an extension in view of the leaders on cameras comments today and a long extension would be unlikely

    I think if they're ever going to refuse an extension, it'd be announced well in advance (several months). Gives everyone time to prepare, and can be used as a political lever to try force us to make a decision.

    Perhaps it might be the case for January …. I'm also assuming Corbyn will find an excuse to avoid a GE, so we're going to be in exactly the same situation then.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,236
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    HYUFD said:

    Benpointer said:

    HYUFD said:

    Benpointer said:

    HYUFD said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    So we have Farage now celebrating Benn Act, Starmer claiming it definitely worse deal, even though he won't have seen the text yet and Swinson of course claiming the only deal is to stay in the EU.

    The HoC will say no and its going to be more silly buggering around isn't it.

    No it wil be No Deal then as the EU have now refused further extension
    Source?
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/10/17/brexit-deal-latest-news-boris-johnson-eu-summit-brussels-barnier/
    So nothing concrete then.
    Nope, absolutely set in stone, it is the Boris Deal or No Deal, no further extension from the EU without EUref2 or a GE
    You do try posters patience.

    It is not set in stone and while undesirable it is possible under certain circumstances but they are complex
    What circumstances if the Deal is voted down and the Commons does not vote for EUref2 or a GE? None
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,113
    1. Vote fails on Saturday
    2. EU in the end grant an extension to avoid a no deal
    3. Boris fails in his attempt to leave by 31/10
    4. Corbyn does not table a VONC
  • Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 1,268
    nico67 said:

    Throughout all the crap and bile thrown at the EU by the right wing press and some UK politicians they have maintained both unity and dignity .

    Barniers comments at the end should shame all those who have treated the EU as the enemy.

    I am guilty of this. The EU did not move or concede at all for a long time, but then made a lot of movement at the end. Varadkar seems to be the one that did it. Both him and Johnsom deserve a lot of credit.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,401
    viewcode said:

    Guys, a quick question. The vote on Saturday? What time of day is it?

    At whatever time Jezza is out of Parliament and on a train to a meeting in Liverpool.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,593
    An excellent article.

    Yes, we have given the EU exactly what it wanted. But that's what happens in lop-sided trade negotiations. It is something we must get used to.

    The bottom line remains: a bad deal is better than no deal.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,584
    Dear god - not another evening of @HYUFD versus the rest of PB.com, surely?
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,555
    SouthamObserver said:

    An excellent article.

    Yes, we have given the EU exactly what it wanted. But that's what happens in lop-sided trade negotiations. It is something we must get used to.

    The bottom line remains: a bad deal is better than no deal.

    But is it better than the old deal or no Brexit?
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    matthiasfromhamburg said:

    HYUFD said:

    spudgfsh said:

    HYUFD said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    So we have Farage now celebrating Benn Act, Starmer claiming it definitely worse deal, even though he won't have seen the text yet and Swinson of course claiming the only deal is to stay in the EU.

    The HoC will say no and its going to be more silly buggering around isn't it.

    No it wil be No Deal then as the EU have now refused further extension
    Junker saying 'we have a deal so there is no need for an extension' is not the same thing as him saying that there will be no extension. it is also in the gift of the council to decide not his. most of this was signalling, prompted by boris, to allow a deal/nodeal vote on saturday.
    It is if the UK Parliament rejects the Deal there is no need for an extension without a change of circumstance ie EUref2 or a GE
    HYUFD makes a lot of statements that I find questionable, but in this instance he assesses the situation correctly, in my humble view.
    British pundits of any colour seem to severely underestimate the appetite in many, many member states to conclude the matter, now.
    Stopped clock, etc.

    Anyway, whatever their frustration with the UK, permitting a No Deal by refusing an extension would be throwing Ireland under the bus. I can't see them doing that, I really can't.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,898
    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    El_Capitano said:

    stodge said:

    To be fair, Johnson has, like all good politicians, the ability to fall in the sh1t and come up smelling of roses.

    1) Boris gets Deal through Parliament - he is a national hero and wins a big majority.
    2) Boris's Deal rejected by Parliament - Boris blames Opposition MPs. Voters back Boris and he wins a big majority.
    3) Boris's Deal rejected by EU - Boris blames Europeans and wins big majority.

    There has been no downside since the ComRes poll of June 12th showed only Boris among the leadership contenders capable of winning a large majority.

    There is also the Churchill/Attlee scenario:

    4) Boris gets Deal through Parliament; calls General Election; voters say "thanks very much, you've got Brexit done, now we're going to vote for someone else because we prefer them on domestic issues".
    Except Remainers and the anti Boris vote is now split between the LDs and Corbyn whereas the anti Churchill vote was united behind Attlee.

    Attlee also won after 14 years of Tory rule not only 9 years
    Attlee won after a national government populated by Labour, Conservative and Liberal politicians.
    With a Tory majority in the Commons throughout those years and a Tory PM
    With a National Government majority. There were National Conservatives, National Liberals and National Labour members. Sure, there were non-National government MPs but it is a gross mischaraterisation of the period to claim it as a straight Conservative majority.
    The National Conservatives won a landslide in the 1935 election and there was a big Tory majority from 1935 to 1945 in the Commons.

    So my statement it was a Commons majority for the Tories throughout those years was 100% correct
    You can believe that if you like, but it doesn't make it any more correct.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,236
    Yorkcity said:

    HYUFD said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Benpointer said:

    HYUFD said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    So we have Farage now celebrating Benn Act, Starmer claiming it definitely worse deal, even though he won't have seen the text yet and Swinson of course claiming the only deal is to stay in the EU.

    The HoC will say no and its going to be more silly buggering around isn't it.

    No it wil be No Deal then as the EU have now refused further extension
    Source?
    HYUFD is not accurate.

    Junckers, the Belgium PM and Macron have all said no prolongation to the deal on the 31st October but as with anything EU it is not yet definitive
    Nope, I am accurate.

    It is also absolutely definitive and confirms the French position of no extension without the Deal passing, EUref2 or a GE
    Tusk has just refused to rule out a further extension been granted.
    Nope, he said 'the door was open for a UK return to the EU' post Brexit, not further extension

    https://twitter.com/BBCBreaking/status/1184871136162508800?s=20
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    Yorkcity said:

    HYUFD said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Benpointer said:

    HYUFD said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    So we have Farage now celebrating Benn Act, Starmer claiming it definitely worse deal, even though he won't have seen the text yet and Swinson of course claiming the only deal is to stay in the EU.

    The HoC will say no and its going to be more silly buggering around isn't it.

    No it wil be No Deal then as the EU have now refused further extension
    Source?
    HYUFD is not accurate.

    Junckers, the Belgium PM and Macron have all said no prolongation to the deal on the 31st October but as with anything EU it is not yet definitive
    Nope, I am accurate.

    It is also absolutely definitive and confirms the French position of no extension without the Deal passing, EUref2 or a GE
    Tusk has just refused to rule out a further extension been granted.
    Tusk will never agree to push the UK out .

    He is an emotional guy and really feels a loss at what’s happened. He will be overjoyed if the UK after all this decided to remain.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,551
    HYUFD said:

    Barnesian said:

    HYUFD said:

    Gallowgate said:

    HYUFD said:

    Gallowgate said:

    HYUFD said:

    Gallowgate said:

    HYUFD said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    So we have Farage now celebrating Benn Act, Starmer claiming it definitely worse deal, even though he won't have seen the text yet and Swinson of course claiming the only deal is to stay in the EU.

    The HoC will say no and its going to be more silly buggering around isn't it.

    No it wil be No Deal then as the EU have now refused further extension
    No they haven’t. The EU will grant an extension.
    Nope, Juncker ruled out further extension today, it is the Boris Deal or No Deal
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/10/17/brexit-deal-latest-news-boris-johnson-eu-summit-brussels-barnier/
    Stop spouting this nonsense.

    https://twitter.com/albertonardelli/status/1184864611327234050?s=21
    It would require a Commons vote for EUref2 or a GE, otherwise as Juncker said this afternoon if the Commons rejects the Boris Deal the EU will refuse further extension and it will be No Deal Brexit
    We have no idea what it would mean or require. Neither do you.
    I do absolutely, it is the Boris Deal, EUref2 or a GE or No Deal Brexit
    You live in an absolute world. I hope you don't bet. Betting is a probabilistic world.
    I don't bet generally no, I am a political activist not a better
    Bettors deal in odds, and recognise and weigh uncertainty. They try to follow their heads not their hearts.

    You follow your heart and speak in certainties. I think that is why you sometimes get a negative reaction on this betting site.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,236
    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    El_Capitano said:

    stodge said:

    To be fair, Johnson has, like all good politicians, the ability to fall in the sh1t and come up smelling of roses.

    1) Boris gets Deal through Parliament - he is a national hero and wins a big majority.
    2) Boris's Deal rejected by Parliament - Boris blames Opposition MPs. Voters back Boris and he wins a big majority.
    3) Boris's Deal rejected by EU - Boris blames Europeans and wins big majority.

    There has been no downside since the ComRes poll of June 12th showed only Boris among the leadership contenders capable of winning a large majority.

    There is also the Churchill/Attlee scenario:

    4) Boris gets Deal through Parliament; calls General Election; voters say "thanks very much, you've got Brexit done, now we're going to vote for someone else because we prefer them on domestic issues".
    Except Remainers and the anti Boris vote is now split between the LDs and Corbyn whereas the anti Churchill vote was united behind Attlee.

    Attlee also won after 14 years of Tory rule not only 9 years
    Attlee won after a national government populated by Labour, Conservative and Liberal politicians.
    With a Tory majority in the Commons throughout those years and a Tory PM
    With a National Government majority. There were National Conservatives, National Liberals and National Labour members. Sure, there were non-National government MPs but it is a gross mischaraterisation of the period to claim it as a straight Conservative majority.
    The National Conservatives won a landslide in the 1935 election and there was a big Tory majority from 1935 to 1945 in the Commons.

    So my statement it was a Commons majority for the Tories throughout those years was 100% correct
    You can believe that if you like, but it doesn't make it any more correct.
    It does because it is
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,113
    Benponiter: "Dear god - not another evening of @HYUFD versus the rest of PB.com, surely?"

    Gotta love the donkey
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    HYUFD said:

    Yorkcity said:

    HYUFD said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Benpointer said:

    HYUFD said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    So we have Farage now celebrating Benn Act, Starmer claiming it definitely worse deal, even though he won't have seen the text yet and Swinson of course claiming the only deal is to stay in the EU.

    The HoC will say no and its going to be more silly buggering around isn't it.

    No it wil be No Deal then as the EU have now refused further extension
    Source?
    HYUFD is not accurate.

    Junckers, the Belgium PM and Macron have all said no prolongation to the deal on the 31st October but as with anything EU it is not yet definitive
    Nope, I am accurate.

    It is also absolutely definitive and confirms the French position of no extension without the Deal passing, EUref2 or a GE
    Tusk has just refused to rule out a further extension been granted.
    Nope, he said 'the door was open for a UK return to the EU' post Brexit, not further extension

    https://twitter.com/BBCBreaking/status/1184871136162508800?s=20
    He was asked about an extension and said he would take that request to the EU council . You clearly have not seen the full news conference.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,593
    If ths deal is worse than Remain from a DUP perspective, why would the DUP not now support a referendum on this deal and back Remain in that referendum?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,236
    Barnesian said:

    HYUFD said:

    Barnesian said:

    HYUFD said:

    Gallowgate said:

    HYUFD said:

    Gallowgate said:

    HYUFD said:

    Gallowgate said:

    HYUFD said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    So we have Farage now celebrating Benn Act, Starmer claiming it definitely worse deal, even though he won't have seen the text yet and Swinson of course claiming the only deal is to stay in the EU.

    The HoC will say no and its going to be more silly buggering around isn't it.

    No it wil be No Deal then as the EU have now refused further extension
    No they haven’t. The EU will grant an extension.
    Nope, Juncker ruled out further extension today, it is the Boris Deal or No Deal
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/10/17/brexit-deal-latest-news-boris-johnson-eu-summit-brussels-barnier/
    Stop spouting this nonsense.

    https://twitter.com/albertonardelli/status/1184864611327234050?s=21
    It would require a Commons vote for EUref2 or a GE, otherwise as Juncker said this afternoon if the Commons rejects the Boris Deal the EU will refuse further extension and it will be No Deal Brexit
    We have no idea what it would mean or require. Neither do you.
    I do absolutely, it is the Boris Deal, EUref2 or a GE or No Deal Brexit
    You live in an absolute world. I hope you don't bet. Betting is a probabilistic world.
    I don't bet generally no, I am a political activist not a better
    Bettors deal in odds, and recognise and weigh uncertainty. They try to follow their heads not their hearts.

    You follow your heart and speak in certainties. I think that is why you sometimes get a negative reaction on this betting site.
    Do I care? Nope, indeed my going against the PBherd is sometimes proved correct see my prediction Boris would be Tory leader and PM against most PBers views
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    HYUFD said:

    Yorkcity said:

    HYUFD said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Benpointer said:

    HYUFD said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    So we have Farage now celebrating Benn Act, Starmer claiming it definitely worse deal, even though he won't have seen the text yet and Swinson of course claiming the only deal is to stay in the EU.

    The HoC will say no and its going to be more silly buggering around isn't it.

    No it wil be No Deal then as the EU have now refused further extension
    Source?
    HYUFD is not accurate.

    Junckers, the Belgium PM and Macron have all said no prolongation to the deal on the 31st October but as with anything EU it is not yet definitive
    Nope, I am accurate.

    It is also absolutely definitive and confirms the French position of no extension without the Deal passing, EUref2 or a GE
    Tusk has just refused to rule out a further extension been granted.
    Nope, he said 'the door was open for a UK return to the EU' post Brexit, not further extension

    https://twitter.com/BBCBreaking/status/1184871136162508800?s=20
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2019/oct/17/eu-leaders-gather-for-summit-as-boris-johnson-scrambles-to-get-backing-for-brexit-deal-politics-live
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,476
    Gabs2 said:

    nico67 said:

    Throughout all the crap and bile thrown at the EU by the right wing press and some UK politicians they have maintained both unity and dignity .

    Barniers comments at the end should shame all those who have treated the EU as the enemy.

    I am guilty of this. The EU did not move or concede at all for a long time, but then made a lot of movement at the end. Varadkar seems to be the one that did it. Both him and Johnsom deserve a lot of credit.
    Varadkar doesn't seem to have conceded anything. A border in the Irish Sea is good for him.
  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,490
    Stocky said:

    Benponiter: "Dear god - not another evening of @HYUFD versus the rest of PB.com, surely?"

    Gotta love the donkey

    I know I shouldn't bite but I can't resist
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,639
    HYUFD said:

    The SNP may be furious they cannot use No Deal as an excuse to give them a good chance of Yes in any indyref2, I assure you a majority of Scots are not and will be happy Boris has a Deal with the EU that avoids No Deal.

    By avoiding a hard border in Ireland between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland Boris has also made it less likely Northern Ireland votes for a united Ireland.

    The Boris Deal thus delivers Brexit and removes the GB backstop (and ends free movement in GB and enables our own trade deals) and makes the breakup of the UK less likely

    Come now - the recent polling was for 50% for indy, and that was pre Brexit.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    edited October 2019
    Guto Bebb had said he thought 13-15, seems to be edging upwards (perhaps inevitable he was overly optimistic given he's one of the No votes).

    https://twitter.com/JGForsyth/status/1184875557370109952
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,555
    HYUFD said:

    Barnesian said:

    HYUFD said:

    Barnesian said:

    HYUFD said:

    Gallowgate said:

    HYUFD said:

    Gallowgate said:

    HYUFD said:

    Gallowgate said:

    HYUFD said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    So we have Farage now celebrating Benn Act, Starmer claiming it definitely worse deal, even though he won't have seen the text yet and Swinson of course claiming the only deal is to stay in the EU.

    The HoC will say no and its going to be more silly buggering around isn't it.

    No it wil be No Deal then as the EU have now refused further extension
    No they haven’t. The EU will grant an extension.
    Nope, Juncker ruled out further extension today, it is the Boris Deal or No Deal
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/10/17/brexit-deal-latest-news-boris-johnson-eu-summit-brussels-barnier/
    Stop spouting this nonsense.

    https://twitter.com/albertonardelli/status/1184864611327234050?s=21
    It would require a Commons vote for EUref2 or a GE, otherwise as Juncker said this afternoon if the Commons rejects the Boris Deal the EU will refuse further extension and it will be No Deal Brexit
    We have no idea what it would mean or require. Neither do you.
    I do absolutely, it is the Boris Deal, EUref2 or a GE or No Deal Brexit
    You live in an absolute world. I hope you don't bet. Betting is a probabilistic world.
    I don't bet generally no, I am a political activist not a better
    Bettors deal in odds, and recognise and weigh uncertainty. They try to follow their heads not their hearts.

    You follow your heart and speak in certainties. I think that is why you sometimes get a negative reaction on this betting site.
    Do I care? Nope, indeed my going against the PBherd is sometimes proved correct see my prediction Boris would be Tory leader and PM against most PBers views
    I don’t think people argued against the possibility of a Boris premiership. We argued that it wasn’t a great idea.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    Bozo all of a sudden about unity after peddling division !

    I’m happy there’s a deal but really he needs to go fuck himself .
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,584
    HYUFD said:

    Benpointer said:

    HYUFD said:

    Benpointer said:

    HYUFD said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    So we have Farage now celebrating Benn Act, Starmer claiming it definitely worse deal, even though he won't have seen the text yet and Swinson of course claiming the only deal is to stay in the EU.

    The HoC will say no and its going to be more silly buggering around isn't it.

    No it wil be No Deal then as the EU have now refused further extension
    Source?
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/10/17/brexit-deal-latest-news-boris-johnson-eu-summit-brussels-barnier/
    So nothing concrete then.
    Nope, absolutely set in stone, it is the Boris Deal or No Deal, no further extension from the EU without EUref2 or a GE
    I see you have caveated your position :smile:
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    PB needs a sweepstake on the margin of victory or loss on Saturday.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,069
    williamglenn said:

    https://twitter.com/MichaelPDeacon/status/1184871537461092358

    He's a ghastly populist shock jock, but he's right.
    This is the easy bit. If I were an op-ed cartoonist, tomorrow would be easy;
    Frame 1: Boris celebrating at the top of a mountain.
    Frame 2: Pan out, to show the infinitely huger mountain in the background. If you want to go all David Low, label them "Withdrawal Agreement" and "Trade Deal".

    Still, it's what they wanted...
This discussion has been closed.