Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Welcome to the Looking-Glass

1356789

Comments

  • surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,469

    I think you'll have Grieve Gauke Greening Bebb against, the others may vote for, if the ERG are on board bar a few holdouts he might need ca 18 indies and labour for a deal..........

    Gauke I think will vote yes but Grieve, Greening and Bebb no
    Boles, Gyimah ?
  • Chris said:

    Anorak said:

    HYUFD said:

    spudgfsh said:

    HYUFD said:

    So we have Farage now celebrating Benn Act, Starmer claiming it definitely worse deal, even though he won't have seen the text yet and Swinson of course claiming the only deal is to stay in the EU.

    The HoC will say no and its going to be more silly buggering around isn't it.

    No it wil be No Deal then as the EU have now refused further extension
    Junker saying 'we have a deal so there is no need for an extension' is not the same thing as him saying that there will be no extension. it is also in the gift of the council to decide not his. most of this was signalling, prompted by boris, to allow a deal/nodeal vote on saturday.
    It is if the UK Parliament rejects the Deal there is no need for an extension without a change of circumstance ie EUref2 or a GE
    HYUFD makes a lot of statements that I find questionable, but in this instance he assesses the situation correctly, in my humble view.
    British pundits of any colour seem to severely underestimate the appetite in many, many member states to conclude the matter, now.
    Stopped clock, etc.

    Anyway, whatever their frustration with the UK, permitting a No Deal by refusing an extension would be throwing Ireland under the bus. I can't see them doing that, I really can't.
    Surely that's right - and any implied threat of No Extension is unconvincing, because everybody knows it (even if some here would love to believe in Deal or No Deal).
    It doesnt need to be convincing to be effective. If it gives political cover to 10 more Labour leavers to vote for the deal, claiming they are stopping no deal, that would make the implied threat effective. The Labour leavers dont need to believe the threat, just be able to make political excuses with it.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,851

    I think you'll have Grieve Gauke Greening Bebb against, the others may vote for, if the ERG are on board bar a few holdouts he might need ca 18 indies and labour for a deal..........

    And getting 18 switchers is a stretch. Maybe it could happen, maybe it should happen (though the pressure to sign this off nownowNOW is ominous). But maybe, in the grand scheme of things, nothing has changed today.
    Erg support has changed a bit but on it's own that's not enough.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    The infamous poll asks whether the result should be abided by . It’s completely different from asking a question on if there’s a new vote .

    I detest Brexit but would say the UK should leave now but if there’s a new vote I’d vote Remain .

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,244
    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    The SNP may be furious they cannot use No Deal as an excuse to give them a good chance of Yes in any indyref2, I assure you a majority of Scots are not and will be happy Boris has a Deal with the EU that avoids No Deal.

    By avoiding a hard border in Ireland between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland Boris has also made it less likely Northern Ireland votes for a united Ireland.

    The Boris Deal thus delivers Brexit and removes the GB backstop (and ends free movement in GB and enables our own trade deals) and makes the breakup of the UK less likely

    Come now - the recent polling was for 50% for indy, and that was pre Brexit.
    That was excluding Don't Knows most of whom would go No as Quebec 1995 showed, only No Deal got a slim Yes majority in that poll.

    Plus of course Boris and Westminster will block indyref2 for the foreseeable future anyway
    Possibly you are not allowing for the fact that indyref2 will not be like the previous

    If I were, say, an Edinburgh middle-class type working in the financial industry, or a coastal fisherman, I might well vote Yes this time.

    Remember - polling got more votes for independence in the event of Brexit.

    In fact, it is a point to bear in mind for NI as well, and Wales too.

    And re denying a vote - I thought you wanted to invade Spain, not emulate it?
    The Scots are avoiding No Deal which us fine enough for most of them given a majority now want to respect the Leave vote and deliver Brexit.

    Wales voted Leave.

    I am not emulating Spain as I am not yet proposing arresting and jailing Sturgeon and SNP leaders as Spain has arrested and jailed Catalan leaders, I am only saying indyref2 should be blocked for the foreseeable future
    C an you point me to a reputable poll saying the Scots now want Brexit, please?

    As for Spain, it happened because the central gmtd denied the poll in the first place.
    https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1184396383148793857?s=20
    https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1184399764168859648?s=20
    Thank you.

    That's a leading question - actually the real figure for wanting to stay is 54% witdh a more neutral question in that database. Interesting, though, that the Scots are still the least Brsexity of any region sampled.
    The fact that 52% of Scots will now accept Brexit and respect the Leave vote even though a majority of them voted Remain is nonetheless a boost to Boris and a blow to the SNP
  • I think you'll have Grieve Gauke Greening Bebb against, the others may vote for, if the ERG are on board bar a few holdouts he might need ca 18 indies and labour for a deal..........

    Gauke I think will vote yes but Grieve, Greening and Bebb no
    Boles, Gyimah ?
    Boles has said yes, Gyimah no
  • spudgfsh said:

    So Corbyn becomes PM next week.

    Here's how:
    Johnson loses vote on Saturday.
    UK faces No Deal breakfast - but Johnson refuses to send letter.
    VoNC.
    There isn't time for Swinson to f*** about. Even Farage backs Benn Act.
    Corbyn is PM.
    Letter is sent.
    2nd ref follows.

    He doesn't have the votes to become PM, even with the LDs
    He can become PM but not stay PM after being VONC'd in turn.
    he would have to pass a confidence vote in the first place which is a high hurdle. BJ remains until then
    Unfortunatly not true. BJ stops being PM as soon as the Queen appoints a successor. That successor is PM from that point. No VoNC necessary.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,691

    nico67 said:

    I wonder what Rory Stewart will do .

    He can forget any chance of becoming London Mayor if he votes yes .

    Pretty confident he will vote yes, he was the biggest cheerleader for the May deal, which this essentially is 95% of. Agree it shafts him for mayoral hopes.
    It's clear he'll vote yes.

    Voting for the deal is clearly the obvious most rational choice. Voting against is all very well and to my mind a bit less rational, but you'll want to have a history of doing so or a very good reason indeed for switching.

    I'd imagine almost all of the people that voted yes for May's deal at any point will be on side. The exception seems to be the DUP. That's very unfortunate, but they have for the first time over-reached. The Stormont veto is a reasonable step, and their wanting a bigger say in the veto isn't realistic. It's a pity if they can't be brought onside as they've played all this with a pretty straight bat.

    Back to Stewart though. A certain 'yes' I'd have said.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,244
    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:
    It is. The provisions of the backstop are now permanent rather than temporary.

    The backstop no longer applies at all in GB
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,851
    Stocky said:

    surbiton19 said: "Yes, if they are willing to give up being Labour MPs and future candidature."

    Why would a Labour MP have whip with drawn for voting for this deal when Labour MPs whom voted for previous iterations did not?

    Because this time it might pass if they do.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,244
    nico67 said:

    The infamous poll asks whether the result should be abided by . It’s completely different from asking a question on if there’s a new vote .

    I detest Brexit but would say the UK should leave now but if there’s a new vote I’d vote Remain .

    It destroys the SNP argument that Scots will never accept the Brexit vote
  • HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:
    It is. The provisions of the backstop are now permanent rather than temporary.

    The backstop no longer applies at all in GB
    That is being presented as a great achievement. It was the UK tory govt that asked for it to be extended from its original NI form to a UK wide one last year!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,244
    viewcode said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    The SNP may be furious they cannot use No Deal as an excuse to give them a good chance of Yes in any indyref2, I assure you a majority of Scots are not and will be happy Boris has a Deal with the EU that avoids No Deal.

    By avoiding a hard border in Ireland between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland Boris has also made it less likely Northern Ireland votes for a united Ireland.

    The Boris Deal thus delivers Brexit and removes the GB backstop (and ends free movement in GB and enables our own trade deals) and makes the breakup of the UK less likely

    Come now - the recent polling was for 50% for indy, and that was pre Brexit.
    That was excluding Don't Knows most of whom would go No as Quebec 1995 showed, only No Deal got a slim Yes majority in that poll.

    Plus of course Boris and Westminster will block indyref2 for the foreseeable future anyway
    Possibly you are not allowing for the fact that indyref2 will not be like the previous one. In a normal indyref to vote no is to take the easy option of the status quo. This is no longer possible. The status quo has been gleefully and publicly trashed and the Scots are not getting the nice option that the NI people are.

    If I were, say, an Edinburgh middle-class type working in the financial industry, or a coastal fisherman, I might well vote Yes this time.

    Remember - polling got more votes for independence in the event of Brexit.

    In fact, it is a point to bear in mind for NI as well, and Wales too.

    And re denying a vote - I thought you wanted to invade Spain, not emulate it?
    The Scots are avoiding No Deal which us fine enough for most of them given a majority now want to respect the Leave vote and deliver Brexit.

    Wales voted Leave.

    I am not emulating Spain as I am not yet proposing arresting and jailing Sturgeon and SNP leaders as Spain has arrested and jailed Catalan leaders, I am only saying indyref2 should be blocked for the foreseeable future
    C an you point me to a reputable poll saying the Scots now want Brexit, please?

    As for Spain, it happened because the central gmtd denied the poll in the first place.
    https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1184396383148793857?s=20
    https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1184399764168859648?s=20
    Ahem. If I am very much mistaken, wasn't that the poll that gave four options (leave with Deal, leave no deal, remain, don't know) and then added the two Leaves together? Didn't will Jennings or somebody tweet saying that was not on?
    No, that was a separate poll question
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    Andrew said:

    Still needs 15 to 20 Lab+exLab, so probably a fair bit of policy and pork bribery will be needed:


    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1184881590851325952

    They’re not being written into law . The level playing field has been dumped from the WA and into the PD .

    If Labour MPs want to vote for it then fine but they shouldn’t expect to last long as MPs , they’ll be deselected quickly afterwards .
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,790
    Ok. Is there anywhere open after 5pm on a Saturday that will exchange sterling for Euros?
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    If the deal goes through Boris should lead the commons in a round of applause for dear Dom. That will please everyone
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    IanB2 said:

    RobD said:

    isam said:

    If the commons passes it, will Nov 1st be the first day we are officially out?

    If it all goes according to plan we'll only be in for 23 hours on the 31st ;)
    On the first day of BINO, the EU gave to me.....
    Well I’m waiting to hear all the real actionable benefits that I’m about to receive on 1/11 the ones that were worth this shit fest for three years that are going to have any positive impact in my life. I can have a blue passport but is there anything else that actually means anything without resorting to ridiculous argument about sovereignty which actually is a load of bull because our voting system makes the majority of votes worthless.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,244
    nico67 said:

    Andrew said:

    Still needs 15 to 20 Lab+exLab, so probably a fair bit of policy and pork bribery will be needed:


    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1184881590851325952

    They’re not being written into law . The level playing field has been dumped from the WA and into the PD .

    If Labour MPs want to vote for it then fine but they shouldn’t expect to last long as MPs , they’ll be deselected quickly afterwards .
    And welcome to join the Tories if they wish to defect
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    viewcode said:

    Ok. Is there anywhere open after 5pm on a Saturday that will exchange sterling for Euros?

    Lmao ! I think the vote is around 2pm . It’s not a full day .
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,350
    So, a wretched choice for the tabloids: Bozza and a nation agog - or Gazza and the Fat Lass Snog?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774
    Government will move one motion in the Commons on Saturday - for a deal. MPs sit from 0930am. Amendments can be tabled from tonight. There's no cut-off time, so things could run late.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,077
    edited October 2019
    nico67 said:

    viewcode said:

    Ok. Is there anywhere open after 5pm on a Saturday that will exchange sterling for Euros?

    Lmao ! I think the vote is around 2pm . It’s not a full day .
    Get a revolut card which supports multiple currencies and allows you to exchange between them in real time at better than bureau de change rates.
  • Andrew said:

    Still needs 15 to 20 Lab+exLab, so probably a fair bit of policy and pork bribery will be needed:


    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1184881590851325952

    Is there any practical difference if its written into UK law?

    To change it back would only require an act of parliament, which presumably is the case anyway for changing workers right or environmental protections?

    Am I missing something?
  • So Matt Goodwin asked me for my prediction for Saturday's vote.

    I'm going for a government defeat that is smaller than MV3.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,790
    nico67 said:

    viewcode said:

    Ok. Is there anywhere open after 5pm on a Saturday that will exchange sterling for Euros?

    Lmao ! I think the vote is around 2pm . It’s not a full day .
    When will we know? 2pm is doable. 3pm is doable. 3:30pm is doable. 4pm is not.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,077
    kle4 said:

    Stocky said:

    surbiton19 said: "Yes, if they are willing to give up being Labour MPs and future candidature."

    Why would a Labour MP have whip with drawn for voting for this deal when Labour MPs whom voted for previous iterations did not?

    Because this time it might pass if they do.
    Were I a Labour MP I wouldn't be concerned about the whip being withdrawn - chances are they would be de-selected within a week.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    nichomar said:

    IanB2 said:

    RobD said:

    isam said:

    If the commons passes it, will Nov 1st be the first day we are officially out?

    If it all goes according to plan we'll only be in for 23 hours on the 31st ;)
    On the first day of BINO, the EU gave to me.....
    Well I’m waiting to hear all the real actionable benefits that I’m about to receive on 1/11 the ones that were worth this shit fest for three years that are going to have any positive impact in my life. I can have a blue passport but is there anything else that actually means anything without resorting to ridiculous argument about sovereignty which actually is a load of bull because our voting system makes the majority of votes worthless.
    No , bugger all. The transition period at least gives you a bit longer to escape the capitalism on steroids hell hole the UK is going to turn into .

    I’m busy sorting out my dual nationality , the transition means I have a bit more time .
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,190
    HYUFD said:
    1. It was penned by Boris
    2. It was not penned by Mrs May
    3. The backstop is called something else.
    4. The ERG are on board
    5. The DUP are not.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,060
    Anorak said:
    That must be a (bad) joke? please!
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,113
    Bill Cash, John Redwood and Steve Baker???
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,639
    edited October 2019
    HYUFD said:


    The fact that 52% of Scots will now accept Brexit and respect the Leave vote even though a majority of them voted Remain is nonetheless a boost to Boris and a blow to the SNP

    [snip]

    That's stdill a loaded question that was asked. Some people see Brexit as a way station to independence and may have voted for it. As well as the sheer desperation and boredom of many people.

    I'd like to see other poll figures for the basic figure of leave vs remain to confirm thge basic trend - the only other one I can recall is the Panelbase just over a year ago which had 59% remain

    https://wingsoverscotland.com/summer-cleaning/

    But I am sure I saw one which had an increase in the remain vote ...

    However, gtiven this is turning out to be a much nastier deal than Ms May's, stil plenty of water to come under the bridge.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,790
    IanB2 said:

    Government will move one motion in the Commons on Saturday - for a deal. MPs sit from 0930am. Amendments can be tabled from tonight. There's no cut-off time, so things could run late.

    This word "late" is a killer. I frequently work until around 2am, so "late" for me is "when I start to faint". What time do these pampered preening popinjays consider "late"?
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,113
    MarqueeMark: " Bozza and a nation agog - or Gazza and the Fat Lass Snog?"

    Nice alliteration
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774
    edited October 2019
    One point not commented on so far:

    If the [Stormont] vote is negative, then the regulatory uncoupling will not happen for a further two years: 1 January 2027. During this two-year period the EU will work out how to protect the single market, ie another backstop.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Stand aside in return for a yes vote Saturday
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    HYUFD said:

    nico67 said:

    The infamous poll asks whether the result should be abided by . It’s completely different from asking a question on if there’s a new vote .

    I detest Brexit but would say the UK should leave now but if there’s a new vote I’d vote Remain .

    It destroys the SNP argument that Scots will never accept the Brexit vote
    That's not the SNP argument.
  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,490
    viewcode said:

    IanB2 said:

    Government will move one motion in the Commons on Saturday - for a deal. MPs sit from 0930am. Amendments can be tabled from tonight. There's no cut-off time, so things could run late.

    This word "late" is a killer. I frequently work until around 2am, so "late" for me is "when I start to faint". What time do these pampered preening popinjays consider "late"?
    when it's over. sessions finishing past midnight have happened recently and previously they were a lot more common
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,639
    HYUFD said:

    nico67 said:

    The infamous poll asks whether the result should be abided by . It’s completely different from asking a question on if there’s a new vote .

    I detest Brexit but would say the UK should leave now but if there’s a new vote I’d vote Remain .

    It destroys the SNP argument that Scots will never accept the Brexit vote
    You're forgetting that it is business that has to be resolved before we can have indyref 2. Very differnt context from England.
  • viewcode said:

    IanB2 said:

    Government will move one motion in the Commons on Saturday - for a deal. MPs sit from 0930am. Amendments can be tabled from tonight. There's no cut-off time, so things could run late.

    This word "late" is a killer. I frequently work until around 2am, so "late" for me is "when I start to faint". What time do these pampered preening popinjays consider "late"?
    +1. To be fair, I am kind of impressed by Bercow managing 10+ hour sittings without needing to empty his bladder. But then part of me thinks if he doesnt trust his deputies to cover for 5 minutes he is not running a good team!
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    isam said:

    If the commons passes it, will Nov 1st be the first day we are officially out?

    11 PM on 31st October.
  • nichomar said:

    IanB2 said:

    RobD said:

    isam said:

    If the commons passes it, will Nov 1st be the first day we are officially out?

    If it all goes according to plan we'll only be in for 23 hours on the 31st ;)
    On the first day of BINO, the EU gave to me.....
    Well I’m waiting to hear all the real actionable benefits that I’m about to receive on 1/11 the ones that were worth this shit fest for three years that are going to have any positive impact in my life. I can have a blue passport but is there anything else that actually means anything without resorting to ridiculous argument about sovereignty which actually is a load of bull because our voting system makes the majority of votes worthless.
    You have absolutely no right to talk about votes being worthless when you want to ignore the vote of 17.4 million people just because you lost.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,190
    HYUFD said:

    nico67 said:

    Andrew said:

    Still needs 15 to 20 Lab+exLab, so probably a fair bit of policy and pork bribery will be needed:


    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1184881590851325952

    They’re not being written into law . The level playing field has been dumped from the WA and into the PD .

    If Labour MPs want to vote for it then fine but they shouldn’t expect to last long as MPs , they’ll be deselected quickly afterwards .
    And welcome to join the Tories if they wish to defect
    That is a major u-turn from you! I thought you only wanted puritanical Brexiteers in Boris' party. Maybe a place for Mann, but Kinnock?
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,790
    eek said:

    nico67 said:

    viewcode said:

    Ok. Is there anywhere open after 5pm on a Saturday that will exchange sterling for Euros?

    Lmao ! I think the vote is around 2pm . It’s not a full day .
    Get a revolut card which supports multiple currencies and allows you to exchange between them in real time at better than bureau de change rates.
    This has been suggested before. I tend not to use them because I'm rather a late adopter? So although I appreciate the gesture, I don't think it's something I can get done in time.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    A technical question Johnson tried to put rejecting implementing any future EU regulations during the transition, did it survive? If so then farage’s goose is cooked because their paymasters have achieved what they wanted all along, not having to declare their off shore investments to UK tax authorities. It was always about rich people preserving their wealth and nothing else.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,244
    edited October 2019

    HYUFD said:

    nico67 said:

    Andrew said:

    Still needs 15 to 20 Lab+exLab, so probably a fair bit of policy and pork bribery will be needed:


    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1184881590851325952

    They’re not being written into law . The level playing field has been dumped from the WA and into the PD .

    If Labour MPs want to vote for it then fine but they shouldn’t expect to last long as MPs , they’ll be deselected quickly afterwards .
    And welcome to join the Tories if they wish to defect
    That is a major u-turn from you! I thought you only wanted puritanical Brexiteers in Boris' party. Maybe a place for Mann, but Kinnock?
    If Stephen Kinnock votes for the Boris Deal and defies Corbyn I expect we could find him a place in the Lords or a nice safe Tory seat in the Home Counties, any MP who votes for the Boris Deal is welcome in the Tory Party with me
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,851

    So Matt Goodwin asked me for my prediction for Saturday's vote.

    I'm going for a government defeat that is smaller than MV3.

    All great people are predicting that.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    HYUFD said:
    The tactic seems to be to point at Boris and say he’s given up everything, and the EU nothing

    Bitter crumbs of comfort taste better than humble pie
  • In one week Boris Johnson has done more for the cause of Irish reunificaiton than Jeremy Corbyn, John McDonnell and the IRA managed in 40 years. He should get his own mural!
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,190
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    nico67 said:

    Andrew said:

    Still needs 15 to 20 Lab+exLab, so probably a fair bit of policy and pork bribery will be needed:


    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1184881590851325952

    They’re not being written into law . The level playing field has been dumped from the WA and into the PD .

    If Labour MPs want to vote for it then fine but they shouldn’t expect to last long as MPs , they’ll be deselected quickly afterwards .
    And welcome to join the Tories if they wish to defect
    That is a major u-turn from you! I thought you only wanted puritanical Brexiteers in Boris' party. Maybe a place for Mann, but Kinnock?
    If Stephen Kinnock votes for the Boris Deal and defies Corbyn I expect we could find him a place in the Lords or a nice safe Tory seat in the Home Counties, any MP who votes for the Boris Deal is welcome in the Tory Party with me
    Fair enough.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Ceasefire in Syria, sanctions to be lifted once permanent
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,244
    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    nico67 said:

    The infamous poll asks whether the result should be abided by . It’s completely different from asking a question on if there’s a new vote .

    I detest Brexit but would say the UK should leave now but if there’s a new vote I’d vote Remain .

    It destroys the SNP argument that Scots will never accept the Brexit vote
    You're forgetting that it is business that has to be resolved before we can have indyref 2. Very differnt context from England.
    Though Boris and Westminster will of course block indyref2 anyway, certainly before the 2021 Holyrood elections
  • HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    The SNP may be furious they cannot use No Deal as an excuse to give them a good chance of Yes in any indyref2, I assure you a majority of Scots are not and will be happy Boris has a Deal with the EU that avoids No Deal.

    By avoiding a hard border in Ireland between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland Boris has also made it less likely Northern Ireland votes for a united Ireland.

    The Boris Deal thus delivers Brexit and removes the GB backstop (and ends free movement in GB and enables our own trade deals) and makes the breakup of the UK less likely

    Come now - the recent polling was for 50% for indy, and that was pre Brexit.
    That was excluding Don't Knows most of whom would go No as Quebec 1995 showed, only No Deal got a slim Yes majority in that poll.

    Plus of course Boris and Westminster will block indyref2 for the foreseeable future anyway
    Possibly you are not allowing for the fact that indyref2 will not be like the previous one. In a normal indyref to vote no is to take the easy option of the status quo. This is no longer possible. The status quo has been gleefully and publicly trashed and the Scots are not getting the nice option that the NI people are.

    If I were, say, an Edinburgh middle-class type working in the financial industry, or a coastal fisherman, I might well vote Yes this time.

    Remember - polling got more votes for independence in the event of Brexit.

    In fact, it is a point to bear in mind for NI as well, and Wales too.

    And re denying a vote - I thought you wanted to invade Spain, not emulate it?
    The Scots are avoiding No Deal which us fine enough for most of them given a majority now want to respect the Leave vote and deliver Brexit.

    Wales voted Leave.

    I am not emulating Spain as I am not yet proposing arresting and jailing Sturgeon and SNP leaders as Spain has arrested and jailed Catalan leaders, I am only saying indyref2 should be blocked for the foreseeable future
    Keep Scotland in vassalage or the foreseeable future you mean.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    nico67 said:

    Andrew said:

    Still needs 15 to 20 Lab+exLab, so probably a fair bit of policy and pork bribery will be needed:


    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1184881590851325952

    They’re not being written into law . The level playing field has been dumped from the WA and into the PD .

    If Labour MPs want to vote for it then fine but they shouldn’t expect to last long as MPs , they’ll be deselected quickly afterwards .
    And welcome to join the Tories if they wish to defect
    That is a major u-turn from you! I thought you only wanted puritanical Brexiteers in Boris' party. Maybe a place for Mann, but Kinnock?
    If Stephen Kinnock votes for the Boris Deal and defies Corbyn I expect we could find him a place in the Lords or a nice safe Tory seat in the Home Counties, any MP who votes for the Boris Deal is welcome in the Tory Party with me
    Not quite what his Dad had in mind when he said grind the bastards into the dust!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,244
    isam said:

    HYUFD said:
    The tactic seems to be to point at Boris and say he’s given up everything, and the EU nothing

    Bitter crumbs of comfort taste better than humble pie
    Yes and certainly than admitting Boris was right
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    HYUFD said:



    The fact that 52% of Scots will now accept Brexit and respect the Leave vote even though a majority of them voted Remain is nonetheless a boost to Boris and a blow to the SNP

    Are you an idiot? Do you believe what you have just written or are you actively pushing misinformation.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,244

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    nico67 said:

    Andrew said:

    Still needs 15 to 20 Lab+exLab, so probably a fair bit of policy and pork bribery will be needed:


    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1184881590851325952

    They’re not being written into law . The level playing field has been dumped from the WA and into the PD .

    If Labour MPs want to vote for it then fine but they shouldn’t expect to last long as MPs , they’ll be deselected quickly afterwards .
    And welcome to join the Tories if they wish to defect
    That is a major u-turn from you! I thought you only wanted puritanical Brexiteers in Boris' party. Maybe a place for Mann, but Kinnock?
    If Stephen Kinnock votes for the Boris Deal and defies Corbyn I expect we could find him a place in the Lords or a nice safe Tory seat in the Home Counties, any MP who votes for the Boris Deal is welcome in the Tory Party with me
    Not quite what his Dad had in mind when he said grind the bastards into the dust!
    The look on Neil's face as his son becomes a Tory would also be priceless
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,736
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    nico67 said:

    Andrew said:

    Still needs 15 to 20 Lab+exLab, so probably a fair bit of policy and pork bribery will be needed:


    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1184881590851325952

    They’re not being written into law . The level playing field has been dumped from the WA and into the PD .

    If Labour MPs want to vote for it then fine but they shouldn’t expect to last long as MPs , they’ll be deselected quickly afterwards .
    And welcome to join the Tories if they wish to defect
    That is a major u-turn from you! I thought you only wanted puritanical Brexiteers in Boris' party. Maybe a place for Mann, but Kinnock?
    If Stephen Kinnock votes for the Boris Deal and defies Corbyn I expect we could find him a place in the Lords ...
    You don't actually think you're the Queen now, do you?
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    nico67 said:

    Andrew said:

    Still needs 15 to 20 Lab+exLab, so probably a fair bit of policy and pork bribery will be needed:


    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1184881590851325952

    They’re not being written into law . The level playing field has been dumped from the WA and into the PD .

    If Labour MPs want to vote for it then fine but they shouldn’t expect to last long as MPs , they’ll be deselected quickly afterwards .
    And welcome to join the Tories if they wish to defect
    That is a major u-turn from you! I thought you only wanted puritanical Brexiteers in Boris' party. Maybe a place for Mann, but Kinnock?
    If Stephen Kinnock votes for the Boris Deal and defies Corbyn I expect we could find him a place in the Lords or a nice safe Tory seat in the Home Counties, any MP who votes for the Boris Deal is welcome in the Tory Party with me
    Not quite what his Dad had in mind when he said grind the bastards into the dust!
    He was a good orator but....


    https://www.youtube.com/watch?reload=9&v=jh8ktNsie0I

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7TOgB3Smvro
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,244
    edited October 2019
    Alistair said:

    HYUFD said:



    The fact that 52% of Scots will now accept Brexit and respect the Leave vote even though a majority of them voted Remain is nonetheless a boost to Boris and a blow to the SNP

    Are you an idiot? Do you believe what you have just written or are you actively pushing misinformation.
    Someone's touchy this evening...must be a difficult poll for a Nat, I quite understand
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    nico67 said:

    Andrew said:

    Still needs 15 to 20 Lab+exLab, so probably a fair bit of policy and pork bribery will be needed:


    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1184881590851325952

    They’re not being written into law . The level playing field has been dumped from the WA and into the PD .

    If Labour MPs want to vote for it then fine but they shouldn’t expect to last long as MPs , they’ll be deselected quickly afterwards .
    And welcome to join the Tories if they wish to defect
    That is a major u-turn from you! I thought you only wanted puritanical Brexiteers in Boris' party. Maybe a place for Mann, but Kinnock?
    If Stephen Kinnock votes for the Boris Deal and defies Corbyn I expect we could find him a place in the Lords or a nice safe Tory seat in the Home Counties, any MP who votes for the Boris Deal is welcome in the Tory Party with me
    Not quite what his Dad had in mind when he said grind the bastards into the dust!
    That just sums up the Tory approach to this, bribe enough people to betray their principles and we can get this through.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    nico67 said:

    Andrew said:

    Still needs 15 to 20 Lab+exLab, so probably a fair bit of policy and pork bribery will be needed:


    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1184881590851325952

    They’re not being written into law . The level playing field has been dumped from the WA and into the PD .

    If Labour MPs want to vote for it then fine but they shouldn’t expect to last long as MPs , they’ll be deselected quickly afterwards .
    And welcome to join the Tories if they wish to defect
    That is a major u-turn from you! I thought you only wanted puritanical Brexiteers in Boris' party. Maybe a place for Mann, but Kinnock?
    If Stephen Kinnock votes for the Boris Deal and defies Corbyn I expect we could find him a place in the Lords or a nice safe Tory seat in the Home Counties, any MP who votes for the Boris Deal is welcome in the Tory Party with me
    Not quite what his Dad had in mind when he said grind the bastards into the dust!
    He was a good orator but....




    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7TOgB3Smvro

    and there was this too


    https://www.youtube.com/watch?reload=9&v=jh8ktNsie0I


  • matthiasfromhamburgmatthiasfromhamburg Posts: 957
    edited October 2019
    kle4 said:

    I think you'll have Grieve Gauke Greening Bebb against, the others may vote for, if the ERG are on board bar a few holdouts he might need ca 18 indies and labour for a deal..........

    I reckon quite a few Labour abstentions.....
    Yes, if they are willing to give up being Labour MPs and future candidature.
    Some gave up being Tory MPs over no deal, people with higher profiles than most. Some few other labour mps will probably be similarly bold. But not many.
    How many exactly will, of course, remain to be seen.

    Ironically, it was ardent Brexiteers who denounced the channels of communication between the EU Taskforce and UK political actors as "treasonous". These channels will now politely convey one single message to everyone "Please vote for the only deal on the table. Period".

    Some may develop, in the heat of the moment, a feeling of being thrown under a bus. The Scots may be the ones to do so with the most legitimacy, but they will still have time until the end of the transition period to get their act together and come to a decision.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

  • ZephyrZephyr Posts: 438
    isam said:

    HYUFD said:
    The tactic seems to be to point at Boris and say he’s given up everything, and the EU nothing

    Bitter crumbs of comfort taste better than humble pie
    All credit to Boris. He’s played a blinder, the EU did what they said they wouldn’t do and open up the WA and change it. This was all down to the strong and brilliant and charismatic negotiation

    They opened it up and changed it when they had a vain and panicking UK government surrendering. They opened it changed it to add the line British Prime minister picks up the DUP and throws them under a bus.

    Go on, say that’s not true

    Cummings. LOL he didn’t wargame this, they’ll freewheeling hoping something comes up to save them. They were so desperate for a deal to avoid asking for extension, they sold the union out.

    A surrender deal, born to vanity and weakness
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774
    kle4 said:

    So Matt Goodwin asked me for my prediction for Saturday's vote.

    I'm going for a government defeat that is smaller than MV3.

    All great people are predicting that.
    I think it will scrape through
  • Andrew said:

    Still needs 15 to 20 Lab+exLab, so probably a fair bit of policy and pork bribery will be needed:


    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1184881590851325952

    Is there any practical difference if its written into UK law?

    To change it back would only require an act of parliament, which presumably is the case anyway for changing workers right or environmental protections?

    Am I missing something?
    It’s mostly symbolic, but even a Tory Government would struggle, in future, to repeal something explicitly stated to be about minimum standards on worker’s rights and the environment.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,244

    In one week Boris Johnson has done more for the cause of Irish reunificaiton than Jeremy Corbyn, John McDonnell and the IRA managed in 40 years. He should get his own mural!

    Completely wrong, Boris has actually got a Deal that avoids the hard border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland which would have been most likely to see Northern Irish voters vote for a united Ireland
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    HYUFD said:

    Alistair said:

    HYUFD said:



    The fact that 52% of Scots will now accept Brexit and respect the Leave vote even though a majority of them voted Remain is nonetheless a boost to Boris and a blow to the SNP

    Are you an idiot? Do you believe what you have just written or are you actively pushing misinformation.
    Someone's touchy this evening...must be a difficult poll for a Nat, I quite understand
    When has it ever been the SNP's argument that the Scottish people do not accept Brexit being implemented?

    I'll save you time. It has never been the argument.

    The SNP even layed out what form of Brexit it would support.

    Not not know that you would have to be a moron. A fucking imbecile.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited October 2019
    UK to leave the EU on or by 31 Oct is 2.8 on Betfair

    A GE in 2019 is 2.88


  • nichomar said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    nico67 said:

    Andrew said:

    Still needs 15 to 20 Lab+exLab, so probably a fair bit of policy and pork bribery will be needed:


    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1184881590851325952

    They’re not being written into law . The level playing field has been dumped from the WA and into the PD .

    If Labour MPs want to vote for it then fine but they shouldn’t expect to last long as MPs , they’ll be deselected quickly afterwards .
    And welcome to join the Tories if they wish to defect
    That is a major u-turn from you! I thought you only wanted puritanical Brexiteers in Boris' party. Maybe a place for Mann, but Kinnock?
    If Stephen Kinnock votes for the Boris Deal and defies Corbyn I expect we could find him a place in the Lords or a nice safe Tory seat in the Home Counties, any MP who votes for the Boris Deal is welcome in the Tory Party with me
    Not quite what his Dad had in mind when he said grind the bastards into the dust!
    That just sums up the Tory approach to this, bribe enough people to betray their principles and we can get this through.
    Or encourage those to hold on to their principles and not be left to the dogs for doing so.
  • HYUFD said:

    In one week Boris Johnson has done more for the cause of Irish reunificaiton than Jeremy Corbyn, John McDonnell and the IRA managed in 40 years. He should get his own mural!

    Completely wrong, Boris has actually got a Deal that avoids the hard border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland which would have been most likely to see Northern Irish voters vote for a united Ireland

    And that, of course, is why the DUP is so keen on it!

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,244
    edited October 2019
    Alistair said:

    HYUFD said:

    Alistair said:

    HYUFD said:



    The fact that 52% of Scots will now accept Brexit and respect the Leave vote even though a majority of them voted Remain is nonetheless a boost to Boris and a blow to the SNP

    Are you an idiot? Do you believe what you have just written or are you actively pushing misinformation.
    Someone's touchy this evening...must be a difficult poll for a Nat, I quite understand
    When has it ever been the SNP's argument that the Scottish people do not accept Brexit being implemented?

    I'll save you time. It has never been the argument.

    The SNP even layed out what form of Brexit it would support.

    Not not know that you would have to be a moron. A fucking imbecile.
    The SNP's position has always been Brexit of any form makes independence more likely, this poll did not even ask about the SNP's preferred SM and CU BINO Brexit, just straight Brexit and most Scots still supported respecting the Leave vote
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Zephyr said:

    isam said:

    HYUFD said:
    The tactic seems to be to point at Boris and say he’s given up everything, and the EU nothing

    Bitter crumbs of comfort taste better than humble pie
    All credit to Boris. He’s played a blinder, the EU did what they said they wouldn’t do and open up the WA and change it. This was all down to the strong and brilliant and charismatic negotiation

    They opened it up and changed it when they had a vain and panicking UK government surrendering. They opened it changed it to add the line British Prime minister picks up the DUP and throws them under a bus.

    Go on, say that’s not true

    Cummings. LOL he didn’t wargame this, they’ll freewheeling hoping something comes up to save them. They were so desperate for a deal to avoid asking for extension, they sold the union out.

    A surrender deal, born to vanity and weakness
    (R)
  • I do feel sorry for Theresa. If she hadn’t got hung up on the integrity of the UK she could have had a border in the Irish Sea and delivered Brexit. I’m sure she thought she was acting in accordance with the soul of the Tory party, but as we now see no one would have given a stuff.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,528
    The Times has this quote. Not sure if it's selective. “I am convinced it will. If it doesn’t there will be no prolongation.”

    That sounds final. No more extensions, it's this deal or "fuck off, we're not doing this again."

    I really hope it is that and they follow through if Labour and the remainer MPs vote the deal down. I could see an emergency session on the 31st to pass the deal.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,639

    HYUFD said:

    In one week Boris Johnson has done more for the cause of Irish reunificaiton than Jeremy Corbyn, John McDonnell and the IRA managed in 40 years. He should get his own mural!

    Completely wrong, Boris has actually got a Deal that avoids the hard border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland which would have been most likely to see Northern Irish voters vote for a united Ireland

    And that, of course, is why the DUP is so keen on it!

    Er,

    Soft or no border with RoI and a lot of congruence with EU: check.

    Hardish border with GB: check.

    Sounds a lot like a not very baby but actially quite grown-up step towards reunification?
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,893
    edited October 2019
    Labour deselecting MPs in Brexit areas who vote for the deal could cost them seats at the next election- Rother Valley, Great Grimsby, Stoke on Trent North, Crewe and Nantwich etc.- all marginals.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483

    nichomar said:

    IanB2 said:

    RobD said:

    isam said:

    If the commons passes it, will Nov 1st be the first day we are officially out?

    If it all goes according to plan we'll only be in for 23 hours on the 31st ;)
    On the first day of BINO, the EU gave to me.....
    Well I’m waiting to hear all the real actionable benefits that I’m about to receive on 1/11 the ones that were worth this shit fest for three years that are going to have any positive impact in my life. I can have a blue passport but is there anything else that actually means anything without resorting to ridiculous argument about sovereignty which actually is a load of bull because our voting system makes the majority of votes worthless.
    You have absolutely no right to talk about votes being worthless when you want to ignore the vote of 17.4 million people just because you lost.

    I have every right to talk about an election process that is a disgrace, I also have every right to call out a leave vote that was predicated on lies and half truths. Why should I have to accept, without question, what is being inflicted on me when there are no discernible benefits from it and will, over time, actually harm the people who voted for it. I will continue to say leaving is the worst thing the UK has ever done and is only actually getting public support because they think they have had enough. Let’s see how many of the 17.4 million can be arsed getting off the sofa for a second referendum if they think this is such a brilliant idea.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    isam said:

    UK to leave the EU on or by 31 Oct is 2.8 on Betfair

    A GE in 2019 is 2.88


    Now it’s 2.56 and 2.96

    How can Leave not be fav over GE?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,753

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:
    It is. The provisions of the backstop are now permanent rather than temporary.

    The backstop no longer applies at all in GB
    That is being presented as a great achievement. It was the UK tory govt that asked for it to be extended from its original NI form to a UK wide one last year!
    Shhhhhhh. Brexiters think it's a huge victory.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,639
    isam said:

    Zephyr said:

    isam said:

    HYUFD said:
    The tactic seems to be to point at Boris and say he’s given up everything, and the EU nothing

    Bitter crumbs of comfort taste better than humble pie
    All credit to Boris. He’s played a blinder, the EU did what they said they wouldn’t do and open up the WA and change it. This was all down to the strong and brilliant and charismatic negotiation

    They opened it up and changed it when they had a vain and panicking UK government surrendering. They opened it changed it to add the line British Prime minister picks up the DUP and throws them under a bus.

    Go on, say that’s not true

    Cummings. LOL he didn’t wargame this, they’ll freewheeling hoping something comes up to save them. They were so desperate for a deal to avoid asking for extension, they sold the union out.

    A surrender deal, born to vanity and weakness
    (R)
    What does (R) mean, please? Just out of interest.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    HYUFD said:

    Alistair said:

    HYUFD said:

    Alistair said:

    HYUFD said:



    The fact that 52% of Scots will now accept Brexit and respect the Leave vote even though a majority of them voted Remain is nonetheless a boost to Boris and a blow to the SNP

    Are you an idiot? Do you believe what you have just written or are you actively pushing misinformation.
    Someone's touchy this evening...must be a difficult poll for a Nat, I quite understand
    When has it ever been the SNP's argument that the Scottish people do not accept Brexit being implemented?

    I'll save you time. It has never been the argument.

    The SNP even layed out what form of Brexit it would support.

    Not not know that you would have to be a moron. A fucking imbecile.
    The SNP's position has always been Brexit of any form makes independence more likely, this poll did not even ask about the SNP's preferred SM and CU BINO Brexit, just straight Brexit and most Scots still supported respecting the Leave vote
    Pathetic, transparent, contemptible goal post shift.

    Just admit you were wrong and move on.

    You'd be a lot more bearable if you could admit to being wrong.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,244
    edited October 2019

    HYUFD said:

    In one week Boris Johnson has done more for the cause of Irish reunificaiton than Jeremy Corbyn, John McDonnell and the IRA managed in 40 years. He should get his own mural!

    Completely wrong, Boris has actually got a Deal that avoids the hard border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland which would have been most likely to see Northern Irish voters vote for a united Ireland

    And that, of course, is why the DUP is so keen on it!

    I prefer what the polls of Northern Ireland voters say rather than what the DUP think (though the DUP and loyalist paramilitaries would likely declare UDI for Antrim rather than accept a united Ireland vote in Northern Ireland anyway)
  • I do feel sorry for Theresa. If she hadn’t got hung up on the integrity of the UK she could have had a border in the Irish Sea and delivered Brexit. I’m sure she thought she was acting in accordance with the soul of the Tory party, but as we now see no one would have given a stuff.

    It's always been clear that the Conservative and Unionist party as a whole has no affection for the UK. It's a surprise that the same thing applies to the vast majority of the party's MPs, too. English nationalists will English nationalist, though. I guess the DUP has just found that out!

  • ZephyrZephyr Posts: 438
    kle4 said:

    So Matt Goodwin asked me for my prediction for Saturday's vote.

    I'm going for a government defeat that is smaller than MV3.

    All great people are predicting that.
    Every Labour MP who say they may back the deal always add a caveat to cover themselves when they don’t. Labour support will be comfortably in single figures. I expect the ERG to back the DUP too. The line they will use is the negotiation looked promising until too much was surrendered at the last minute to get it over the line. It will lose by 40+ the margin of likely defeat will grow in the coming days.

    Where does that leave us.

    what happened the last time someone outed their idea of Brexit and nailed themselves to a deal? They have power, promise, magic, Its like a big balloon being punctured, the air just slowly quietly farts out from here. Not Boris day of triumph, today is the day that haunts him, delivering brexit, winning a commons majority all gone now.
  • I do feel sorry for Theresa. If she hadn’t got hung up on the integrity of the UK she could have had a border in the Irish Sea and delivered Brexit. I’m sure she thought she was acting in accordance with the soul of the Tory party, but as we now see no one would have given a stuff.

    A certain A Johnson might have cynically seen it as an opportunity for personal advancement.....Brexiteers didnt and dont care about the detail, more the people involved and the optics.
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    In one week Boris Johnson has done more for the cause of Irish reunificaiton than Jeremy Corbyn, John McDonnell and the IRA managed in 40 years. He should get his own mural!

    Completely wrong, Boris has actually got a Deal that avoids the hard border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland which would have been most likely to see Northern Irish voters vote for a united Ireland

    And that, of course, is why the DUP is so keen on it!

    I prefer what the polls of Northern Ireland voters say rather than what the DUP think (though the DUP and loyalist paramilitaries would likely declare UDI for Antrim rather than accept a united Ireland vote in Northern Ireland anyway)

    Don't ever change!

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154
    Zephyr said:

    They opened it changed it to add the line British Prime minister picks up the DUP and throws them under a bus.

    Go on, say that’s not true

    I’ll say it’s not true.

    What they’ve done is taken it back to the deal they put forward as their best case scenario in 2017, before May extracted several important concessions.

    And yet the Brexiteers have not looked at it closely enough to see it. Nor do they understand that this means that the EU will no longer be interested in negotiating a free trade deal unless we stay in CAP, CFP, etc because they now have all the leverage they need to walk away, instead of us ending up half in, half out by default.

    I bet Barnier can’t believe his luck.

    Admittedly, one bright spot is that the European Parliament will probably raise no objections whereas I was always nervous somebody with half a brain would spot what the EU had given away before.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154
    Zephyr said:

    kle4 said:

    So Matt Goodwin asked me for my prediction for Saturday's vote.

    I'm going for a government defeat that is smaller than MV3.

    All great people are predicting that.
    Every Labour MP who say they may back the deal always add a caveat to cover themselves when they don’t. Labour support will be comfortably in single figures. I expect the ERG to back the DUP too. The line they will use is the negotiation looked promising until too much was surrendered at the last minute to get it over the line. It will lose by 40+ the margin of likely defeat will grow in the coming days.

    Where does that leave us.
    The Liberal Democrat’s on 40% as furious Remainers rally behind them.
  • nichomar said:

    nichomar said:

    IanB2 said:

    RobD said:

    isam said:

    If the commons passes it, will Nov 1st be the first day we are officially out?

    If it all goes according to plan we'll only be in for 23 hours on the 31st ;)
    On the first day of BINO, the EU gave to me.....
    Well I’m waiting to hear all the real actionable benefits that I’m about to receive on 1/11 the ones that were worth this shit fest for three years that are going to have any positive impact in my life. I can have a blue passport but is there anything else that actually means anything without resorting to ridiculous argument about sovereignty which actually is a load of bull because our voting system makes the majority of votes worthless.
    You have absolutely no right to talk about votes being worthless when you want to ignore the vote of 17.4 million people just because you lost.

    I have every right to talk about an election process that is a disgrace, I also have every right to call out a leave vote that was predicated on lies and half truths. Why should I have to accept, without question, what is being inflicted on me when there are no discernible benefits from it and will, over time, actually harm the people who voted for it. I will continue to say leaving is the worst thing the UK has ever done and is only actually getting public support because they think they have had enough. Let’s see how many of the 17.4 million can be arsed getting off the sofa for a second referendum if they think this is such a brilliant idea.
    Blah blah blah. You are just looking for excuses to ignore a democratic vote.

    And a losers revote will be boycotted by anyone who actually believes in democracy. Which of course doesn't include you.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,753
    HYUFD said:

    In one week Boris Johnson has done more for the cause of Irish reunificaiton than Jeremy Corbyn, John McDonnell and the IRA managed in 40 years. He should get his own mural!

    Completely wrong, Boris has actually got a Deal that avoids the hard border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland which would have been most likely to see Northern Irish voters vote for a united Ireland
    Despite having been there this week you still don't understand the dynamics of this.

    What has just happened is that the two entities on the island of Ireland have become more detached from the mainland while remaining aligned with each other.

    Read through your Conservative Party email from today. It explicitly separates the mainland from NI.
  • Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    In one week Boris Johnson has done more for the cause of Irish reunificaiton than Jeremy Corbyn, John McDonnell and the IRA managed in 40 years. He should get his own mural!

    Completely wrong, Boris has actually got a Deal that avoids the hard border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland which would have been most likely to see Northern Irish voters vote for a united Ireland

    And that, of course, is why the DUP is so keen on it!

    Er,

    Soft or no border with RoI and a lot of congruence with EU: check.

    Hardish border with GB: check.

    Sounds a lot like a not very baby but actially quite grown-up step towards reunification?

    Yes, I was being ironic! Varadker has layed an absolute blinder and created a de facto single Irish economic area forever. A political union will follow soon enough. Its the direction of travel in Northern Ireland demographically and, crucially, in the former Conservative and Unionist Party.

  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    MaxPB said:

    The Times has this quote. Not sure if it's selective. “I am convinced it will. If it doesn’t there will be no prolongation.”

    That sounds final. No more extensions, it's this deal or "fuck off, we're not doing this again."

    I really hope it is that and they follow through if Labour and the remainer MPs vote the deal down. I could see an emergency session on the 31st to pass the deal.

    If they have any sense they will revoke, why go for something that’s worse than what we have already.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    edited October 2019

    I do feel sorry for Theresa. If she hadn’t got hung up on the integrity of the UK she could have had a border in the Irish Sea and delivered Brexit. I’m sure she thought she was acting in accordance with the soul of the Tory party, but as we now see no one would have given a stuff.


    Does the Tory party have a soul?
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    In one week Boris Johnson has done more for the cause of Irish reunificaiton than Jeremy Corbyn, John McDonnell and the IRA managed in 40 years. He should get his own mural!

    Completely wrong, Boris has actually got a Deal that avoids the hard border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland which would have been most likely to see Northern Irish voters vote for a united Ireland

    And that, of course, is why the DUP is so keen on it!

    I prefer what the polls of Northern Ireland voters say rather than what the DUP think (though the DUP and loyalist paramilitaries would likely declare UDI for Antrim rather than accept a united Ireland vote in Northern Ireland anyway)

    Don't ever change!

    Isn’t this all just clearing the path for Boris’ favoured option of no deal?
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,113
    isam said "How can Leave not be fav over GE?"

    Because of the strong possibility of a VONC then GE
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,244
    Alistair said:

    HYUFD said:

    Alistair said:

    HYUFD said:

    Alistair said:

    HYUFD said:



    The fact that 52% of Scots will now accept Brexit and respect the Leave vote even though a majority of them voted Remain is nonetheless a boost to Boris and a blow to the SNP

    Are you an idiot? Do you believe what you have just written or are you actively pushing misinformation.
    Someone's touchy this evening...must be a difficult poll for a Nat, I quite understand
    When has it ever been the SNP's argument that the Scottish people do not accept Brexit being implemented?

    I'll save you time. It has never been the argument.

    The SNP even layed out what form of Brexit it would support.

    Not not know that you would have to be a moron. A fucking imbecile.
    The SNP's position has always been Brexit of any form makes independence more likely, this poll did not even ask about the SNP's preferred SM and CU BINO Brexit, just straight Brexit and most Scots still supported respecting the Leave vote
    Pathetic, transparent, contemptible goal post shift.

    Just admit you were wrong and move on.

    You'd be a lot more bearable if you could admit to being wrong.
    There is nothing to admit I was wrong for, so of course I will not do so.

    As the poll shows most Scots now accept Brexit should be delivered
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited October 2019
    Carnyx said:

    isam said:

    Zephyr said:

    isam said:

    HYUFD said:
    The tactic seems to be to point at Boris and say he’s given up everything, and the EU nothing

    Bitter crumbs of comfort taste better than humble pie
    All credit to Boris. He’s played a blinder, the EU did what they said they wouldn’t do and open up the WA and change it. This was all down to the strong and brilliant and charismatic negotiation

    They opened it up and changed it when they had a vain and panicking UK government surrendering. They opened it changed it to add the line British Prime minister picks up the DUP and throws them under a bus.

    Go on, say that’s not true

    Cummings. LOL he didn’t wargame this, they’ll freewheeling hoping something comes up to save them. They were so desperate for a deal to avoid asking for extension, they sold the union out.

    A surrender deal, born to vanity and weakness
    (R)
    What does (R) mean, please? Just out of interest.
    It was the symbol to show a programme was a repeat in the old tv listings.
This discussion has been closed.