So we have Farage now celebrating Benn Act, Starmer claiming it definitely worse deal, even though he won't have seen the text yet and Swinson of course claiming the only deal is to stay in the EU.
The HoC will say no and its going to be more silly buggering around isn't it.
No it wil be No Deal then as the EU have now refused further extension
Source?
HYUFD is not accurate.
Junckers, the Belgium PM and Macron have all said no prolongation to the deal on the 31st October but as with anything EU it is not yet definitive
Nope, I am accurate.
It is also absolutely definitive and confirms the French position of no extension without the Deal passing, EUref2 or a GE
Tusk has just refused to rule out a further extension been granted.
Tusk will never agree to push the UK out .
He is an emotional guy and really feels a loss at what’s happened. He will be overjoyed if the UK after all this decided to remain.
Which still requires a Commons vote for EUref2 and a Remain vote, without that if the Commons rejects the Boris Deal there will be no extension, France would certainly veto it and likely more states too and Juncker is also clearly opposed to further extension if the Deal is rejected
So we have Farage now celebrating Benn Act, Starmer claiming it definitely worse deal, even though he won't have seen the text yet and Swinson of course claiming the only deal is to stay in the EU.
The HoC will say no and its going to be more silly buggering around isn't it.
No it wil be No Deal then as the EU have now refused further extension
Junker saying 'we have a deal so there is no need for an extension' is not the same thing as him saying that there will be no extension. it is also in the gift of the council to decide not his. most of this was signalling, prompted by boris, to allow a deal/nodeal vote on saturday.
It is if the UK Parliament rejects the Deal there is no need for an extension without a change of circumstance ie EUref2 or a GE
you don't actually believe that the MPs will vote down this deal and then just stop do you?
they will be forced to vote for something, and probable be forced to keep voting until something come out. I suspect that an amendment with a referendum will pass the commons and an extension for it to take place will happen.
Only 280 MPs voted for EUref2 in the indicative votes
So we have Farage now celebrating Benn Act, Starmer claiming it definitely worse deal, even though he won't have seen the text yet and Swinson of course claiming the only deal is to stay in the EU.
The HoC will say no and its going to be more silly buggering around isn't it.
No it wil be No Deal then as the EU have now refused further extension
Junker saying 'we have a deal so there is no need for an extension' is not the same thing as him saying that there will be no extension. it is also in the gift of the council to decide not his. most of this was signalling, prompted by boris, to allow a deal/nodeal vote on saturday.
It is if the UK Parliament rejects the Deal there is no need for an extension without a change of circumstance ie EUref2 or a GE
HYUFD makes a lot of statements that I find questionable, but in this instance he assesses the situation correctly, in my humble view. British pundits of any colour seem to severely underestimate the appetite in many, many member states to conclude the matter, now.
Stopped clock, etc.
Anyway, whatever their frustration with the UK, permitting a No Deal by refusing an extension would be throwing Ireland under the bus. I can't see them doing that, I really can't.
There is no risk to Ireland. MPs will never vote for No Deal when there is Boris's Deal instead.
So we have Farage now celebrating Benn Act, Starmer claiming it definitely worse deal, even though he won't have seen the text yet and Swinson of course claiming the only deal is to stay in the EU.
The HoC will say no and its going to be more silly buggering around isn't it.
No it wil be No Deal then as the EU have now refused further extension
The SNP may be furious they cannot use No Deal as an excuse to give them a good chance of Yes in any indyref2, I assure you a majority of Scots are not and will be happy Boris has a Deal with the EU that avoids No Deal.
By avoiding a hard border in Ireland between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland Boris has also made it less likely Northern Ireland votes for a united Ireland.
The Boris Deal thus delivers Brexit and removes the GB backstop (and ends free movement in GB and enables our own trade deals) and makes the breakup of the UK less likely
Come now - the recent polling was for 50% for indy, and that was pre Brexit.
That was excluding Don't Knows most of whom would go No as Quebec 1995 showed, only No Deal got a slim Yes majority in that poll.
Plus of course Boris and Westminster will block indyref2 for the foreseeable future anyway
The SNP may be furious they cannot use No Deal as an excuse to give them a good chance of Yes in any indyref2, I assure you a majority of Scots are not and will be happy Boris has a Deal with the EU that avoids No Deal.
By avoiding a hard border in Ireland between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland Boris has also made it less likely Northern Ireland votes for a united Ireland.
The Boris Deal thus delivers Brexit and removes the GB backstop (and ends free movement in GB and enables our own trade deals) and makes the breakup of the UK less likely
Come now - the recent polling was for 50% for indy, and that was pre Brexit.
Yes, or at least Devo Max with the customs border extending from North Channel to the Tweed and Scotland also staying in CU and SM.
To be fair, Johnson has, like all good politicians, the ability to fall in the sh1t and come up smelling of roses.
1) Boris gets Deal through Parliament - he is a national hero and wins a big majority. 2) Boris's Deal rejected by Parliament - Boris blames Opposition MPs. Voters back Boris and he wins a big majority. 3) Boris's Deal rejected by EU - Boris blames Europeans and wins big majority.
There has been no downside since the ComRes poll of June 12th showed only Boris among the leadership contenders capable of winning a large majority.
There is also the Churchill/Attlee scenario:
4) Boris gets Deal through Parliament; calls General Election; voters say "thanks very much, you've got Brexit done, now we're going to vote for someone else because we prefer them on domestic issues".
Except Remainers and the anti Boris vote is now split between the LDs and Corbyn whereas the anti Churchill vote was united behind Attlee.
Attlee also won after 14 years of Tory rule not only 9 years
Attlee won after a national government populated by Labour, Conservative and Liberal politicians.
With a Tory majority in the Commons throughout those years and a Tory PM
With a National Government majority. There were National Conservatives, National Liberals and National Labour members. Sure, there were non-National government MPs but it is a gross mischaraterisation of the period to claim it as a straight Conservative majority.
The National Conservatives won a landslide in the 1935 election and there was a big Tory majority from 1935 to 1945 in the Commons.
So my statement it was a Commons majority for the Tories throughout those years was 100% correct
You can believe that if you like, but it doesn't make it any more correct.
Oooo. Ex-Tories might be very difficult to get on board.
More delaying tactics.
It seems like a legitimate and important piece of data to request before voting. Or do you think Johnson is 100% trustworthy when he says this is a great deal for the UK?
Guys, a quick question. The vote on Saturday? What time of day is it?
Guys, I don't want to nag, but I would please appreciate an answer to this...
Depends if the rebels win the amendment, the government wants to effectively limit the debate whereas as the rebels could post many amendments effecting the actual length of the sitting and the timing of the vote(s).
Guys, a quick question. The vote on Saturday? What time of day is it?
Guys, I don't want to nag, but I would please appreciate an answer to this...
I don't think that is known, especially as the motion to remove the 90 minute restriction succeeded. Lords is sitting from 10am, imagine Commons is similar.
Oooo. Ex-Tories might be very difficult to get on board.
More delaying tactics.
It seems like a legitimate and important piece of data to request before voting. Or do you think Johnson is 100% trustworthy when he says this is a great deal for the UK?
I think this won't change any one of their votes, and instead they are doing it in an attempt to stop Brexit entirely.
So we have Farage now celebrating Benn Act, Starmer claiming it definitely worse deal, even though he won't have seen the text yet and Swinson of course claiming the only deal is to stay in the EU.
The HoC will say no and its going to be more silly buggering around isn't it.
No it wil be No Deal then as the EU have now refused further extension
Junker saying 'we have a deal so there is no need for an extension' is not the same thing as him saying that there will be no extension. it is also in the gift of the council to decide not his. most of this was signalling, prompted by boris, to allow a deal/nodeal vote on saturday.
It is if the UK Parliament rejects the Deal there is no need for an extension without a change of circumstance ie EUref2 or a GE
HYUFD makes a lot of statements that I find questionable, but in this instance he assesses the situation correctly, in my humble view. British pundits of any colour seem to severely underestimate the appetite in many, many member states to conclude the matter, now.
Stopped clock, etc.
Anyway, whatever their frustration with the UK, permitting a No Deal by refusing an extension would be throwing Ireland under the bus. I can't see them doing that, I really can't.
There is no risk to Ireland. MPs will never vote for No Deal when there is Boris's Deal instead.
0% risk. As we all know.
LOL. I have been chuckling at your posts all day mark, Such spin you’ll get dizzy in a minute. Let me help you fall over by slapping you with reality.
Mays Deal+added surrender to the EU. 😁😁😁
Tory Prime minster throws DUP to the dogs. 😆😆😆😆
Negotiating triumph. Take a backstop we can’t get out of. Turn it into a backstop we need the IRA’s permission to get out of 🤬
So [struggles to suppress sarcastic laughter] this is take back control is it?
Why are there any Tories daring top show their face on here today? Do they not realise beneath their surrender deal they are naked?
To be fair, Johnson has, like all good politicians, the ability to fall in the sh1t and come up smelling of roses.
1) Boris gets Deal through Parliament - he is a national hero and wins a big majority. 2) Boris's Deal rejected by Parliament - Boris blames Opposition MPs. Voters back Boris and he wins a big majority. 3) Boris's Deal rejected by EU - Boris blames Europeans and wins big majority.
There has been no downside since the ComRes poll of June 12th showed only Boris among the leadership contenders capable of winning a large majority.
There is also the Churchill/Attlee scenario:
4) Boris gets Deal through Parliament; calls General Election; voters say "thanks very much, you've got Brexit done, now we're going to vote for someone else because we prefer them on domestic issues".
Except Remainers and the anti Boris vote is now split between the LDs and Corbyn whereas the anti Churchill vote was united behind Attlee.
Attlee also won after 14 years of Tory rule not only 9 years
Attlee won after a national government populated by Labour, Conservative and Liberal politicians.
With a Tory majority in the Commons throughout those years and a Tory PM
With a National Government majority. There were National Conservatives, National Liberals and National Labour members. Sure, there were non-National government MPs but it is a gross mischaraterisation of the period to claim it as a straight Conservative majority.
The National Conservatives won a landslide in the 1935 election and there was a big Tory majority from 1935 to 1945 in the Commons.
So my statement it was a Commons majority for the Tories throughout those years was 100% correct
You can believe that if you like, but it doesn't make it any more correct.
So we have Farage now celebrating Benn Act, Starmer claiming it definitely worse deal, even though he won't have seen the text yet and Swinson of course claiming the only deal is to stay in the EU.
The HoC will say no and its going to be more silly buggering around isn't it.
No it wil be No Deal then as the EU have now refused further extension
Junker saying 'we have a deal so there is no need for an extension' is not the same thing as him saying that there will be no extension. it is also in the gift of the council to decide not his. most of this was signalling, prompted by boris, to allow a deal/nodeal vote on saturday.
It is if the UK Parliament rejects the Deal there is no need for an extension without a change of circumstance ie EUref2 or a GE
HYUFD makes a lot of statements that I find questionable, but in this instance he assesses the situation correctly, in my humble view. British pundits of any colour seem to severely underestimate the appetite in many, many member states to conclude the matter, now.
Stopped clock, etc.
Anyway, whatever their frustration with the UK, permitting a No Deal by refusing an extension would be throwing Ireland under the bus. I can't see them doing that, I really can't.
There is no risk to Ireland. MPs will never vote for No Deal when there is Boris's Deal instead.
0% risk. As we all know.
LOL. I have been chuckling at your posts all day mark, Such spin your get dizzy in it a minute. Let me help you fall over by slapping you with reality.
Mays Deal+added surrender to the EU. 😁😁😁
Tory Prime minster throws DUP to the dogs. 😆😆😆😆
Negotiating triumph. Take a backstop we can’t get out of. Turn it into a backstop we need the IRA’s permission to get out of 🤬
So [struggles to suppress sarcastic laughter] this is take back control is it?
Why are there any Tories daring top show their face on here today? Do they not realise beneath their surrender deal they are naked?
There is now no backstop for GB and a hard border is avoided in Northern Ireland with consent of a majority of NI parties required to change the situation
Guys, a quick question. The vote on Saturday? What time of day is it?
Guys, I don't want to nag, but I would please appreciate an answer to this...
I think it depends on the number of amendments allowed but they are starting at 9:30 so I would think they are aiming for votes late afternoon (rather than into the evening say).
The SNP may be furious they cannot use No Deal as an excuse to give them a good chance of Yes in any indyref2, I assure you a majority of Scots are not and will be happy Boris has a Deal with the EU that avoids No Deal.
By avoiding a hard border in Ireland between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland Boris has also made it less likely Northern Ireland votes for a united Ireland.
The Boris Deal thus delivers Brexit and removes the GB backstop (and ends free movement in GB and enables our own trade deals) and makes the breakup of the UK less likely
Come now - the recent polling was for 50% for indy, and that was pre Brexit.
That was excluding Don't Knows most of whom would go No as Quebec 1995 showed, only No Deal got a slim Yes majority in that poll.
Plus of course Boris and Westminster will block indyref2 for the foreseeable future anyway
Possibly you are not allowing for the fact that indyref2 will not be like the previous one. In a normal indyref to vote no is to take the easy option of the status quo. This is no longer possible. The status quo has been gleefully and publicly trashed and the Scots are not getting the nice option that the NI people are.
If I were, say, an Edinburgh middle-class type working in the financial industry, or a coastal fisherman, I might well vote Yes this time.
Remember - polling got more votes for independence in the event of Brexit.
In fact, it is a point to bear in mind for NI as well, and Wales too.
And re denying a vote - I thought you wanted to invade Spain, not emulate it?
Most ERG and most of the ex Cons - minus the Grievers - gets them then around the 300 mark assuming no other losses. Gets to maybe 305 with 1-2 more labour votes?
I think you'll have Grieve Gauke Greening Bebb against, the others may vote for, if the ERG are on board bar a few holdouts he might need ca 18 indies and labour for a deal..........
The SNP may be furious they cannot use No Deal as an excuse to give them a good chance of Yes in any indyref2, I assure you a majority of Scots are not and will be happy Boris has a Deal with the EU that avoids No Deal.
By avoiding a hard border in Ireland between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland Boris has also made it less likely Northern Ireland votes for a united Ireland.
The Boris Deal thus delivers Brexit and removes the GB backstop (and ends free movement in GB and enables our own trade deals) and makes the breakup of the UK less likely
Come now - the recent polling was for 50% for indy, and that was pre Brexit.
Yes, or at least Devo Max with the customs border extending from North Channel to the Tweed and Scotland also staying in CU and SM.
Well, we do, sorry will [edit], have a shining example not at all far away.
The DUP are apparently going to be actively trying to get other MPs to vote against the deal .
Not sure how much influence they have left . It looks like the ERG are going to vote yes .
Some of the switch around are great. People who lapped at their feet now reject them, those who abhored them now standing in their defence, with Faragr revealing himself a remainer and remainers saying its not a good enough leave.
Guys, a quick question. The vote on Saturday? What time of day is it?
Guys, I don't want to nag, but I would please appreciate an answer to this...
I think it depends on the number of amendments allowed but they are starting at 9:30 so I would think they are aiming for votes late afternoon (rather than into the evening say).
IANAE though.
The most important amendment would be for a referendum and Corbyn is refusing wanting a straight up and down vote
The DUP are apparently going to be actively trying to get other MPs to vote against the deal .
Not sure how much influence they have left . It looks like the ERG are going to vote yes .
Some of the switch around are great. People who lapped at their feet now reject them, those who abhored them now standing in their defence, with Faragr revealing himself a remainer and remainers saying its not a good enough leave.
It's a fun point but not quite right - they dont need to convince people of that, they need to justify their actions to their supporters. Thats a much lower bar.
So we have Farage now celebrating Benn Act, Starmer claiming it definitely worse deal, even though he won't have seen the text yet and Swinson of course claiming the only deal is to stay in the EU.
The HoC will say no and its going to be more silly buggering around isn't it.
No it wil be No Deal then as the EU have now refused further extension
No they haven't. They haven't mentioned it.
Oh, they have mentioned not granting it. Just not in the communique.
Writing Farage obituary today is going to haunt you.
Farage is actually right and true to his principles. The Principles being the EU commission kicking UK parliament around and bouncing it always been the opposite to what he wants. The problem for Boris or Deal Christ any bloody deal bad or not fans is bully Junker is now on YOUR side.
What’s credibility shredding today ERG and Boris Government AND their EU commission allies try to bounce Britain into this messy, bad hard Brexit deal they have never had public endorsement for. The ballot paper merely said leave, not leave disastrously whilst destroying the union. 😁
Brilliant analysis by Cyclefree. Now where is that Motion for Sir Oliver Letwin to be charged with High Treason and like the Earl of Stafford, take one for his cause
He can forget any chance of becoming London Mayor if he votes yes .
Pretty confident he will vote yes, he was the biggest cheerleader for the May deal, which this essentially is 95% of. Agree it shafts him for mayoral hopes.
Most ERG and most of the ex Cons - minus the Grievers - gets them then around the 300 mark assuming no other losses. Gets to maybe 305 with 1-2 more labour votes?
And of course they would have the whip restored and fight their seats in an imminent GE
The DUP are apparently going to be actively trying to get other MPs to vote against the deal .
Not sure how much influence they have left . It looks like the ERG are going to vote yes .
Some of the switch around are great. People who lapped at their feet now reject them, those who abhored them now standing in their defence, with Faragr revealing himself a remainer and remainers saying its not a good enough leave.
Welcome to politics !
Well yes, but it's not usually quite so brazen.
But I would like to confirm that like Rory, I too got it wrong.
So we have Farage now celebrating Benn Act, Starmer claiming it definitely worse deal, even though he won't have seen the text yet and Swinson of course claiming the only deal is to stay in the EU.
The HoC will say no and its going to be more silly buggering around isn't it.
No it wil be No Deal then as the EU have now refused further extension
Junker saying 'we have a deal so there is no need for an extension' is not the same thing as him saying that there will be no extension. it is also in the gift of the council to decide not his. most of this was signalling, prompted by boris, to allow a deal/nodeal vote on saturday.
It is if the UK Parliament rejects the Deal there is no need for an extension without a change of circumstance ie EUref2 or a GE
HYUFD makes a lot of statements that I find questionable, but in this instance he assesses the situation correctly, in my humble view. British pundits of any colour seem to severely underestimate the appetite in many, many member states to conclude the matter, now.
Stopped clock, etc.
Anyway, whatever their frustration with the UK, permitting a No Deal by refusing an extension would be throwing Ireland under the bus. I can't see them doing that, I really can't.
Surely that's right - and any implied threat of No Extension is unconvincing, because everybody knows it (even if some here would love to believe in Deal or No Deal).
The SNP may be furious they cannot use No Deal as an excuse to give them a good chance of Yes in any indyref2, I assure you a majority of Scots are not and will be happy Boris has a Deal with the EU that avoids No Deal.
By avoiding a hard border in Ireland between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland Boris has also made it less likely Northern Ireland votes for a united Ireland.
The Boris Deal thus delivers Brexit and removes the GB backstop (and ends free movement in GB and enables our own trade deals) and makes the breakup of the UK less likely
Come now - the recent polling was for 50% for indy, and that was pre Brexit.
That was excluding Don't Knows most of whom would go No as Quebec 1995 showed, only No Deal got a slim Yes majority in that poll.
Plus of course Boris and Westminster will block indyref2 for the foreseeable future anyway
Possibly you are not allowing for the fact that indyref2 will not be like the previous one. In a normal indyref to vote no is to take the easy option of the status quo. This is no longer possible. The status quo has been gleefully and publicly trashed and the Scots are not getting the nice option that the NI people are.
If I were, say, an Edinburgh middle-class type working in the financial industry, or a coastal fisherman, I might well vote Yes this time.
Remember - polling got more votes for independence in the event of Brexit.
In fact, it is a point to bear in mind for NI as well, and Wales too.
And re denying a vote - I thought you wanted to invade Spain, not emulate it?
The Scots are avoiding No Deal which us fine enough for most of them given a majority now want to respect the Leave vote and deliver Brexit.
Wales voted Leave.
I am not emulating Spain as I am not yet proposing arresting and jailing Sturgeon and SNP leaders as Spain has arrested and jailed Catalan leaders, I am only saying indyref2 should be blocked for the foreseeable future
Brilliant analysis by Cyclefree. Now where is that Motion for Sir Oliver Letwin to be charged with High Treason and like the Earl of Stafford, take one for his cause
So we have Farage now celebrating Benn Act, Starmer claiming it definitely worse deal, even though he won't have seen the text yet and Swinson of course claiming the only deal is to stay in the EU.
The HoC will say no and its going to be more silly buggering around isn't it.
No it wil be No Deal then as the EU have now refused further extension
Junker saying 'we have a deal so there is no need for an extension' is not the same thing as him saying that there will be no extension. it is also in the gift of the council to decide not his. most of this was signalling, prompted by boris, to allow a deal/nodeal vote on saturday.
It is if the UK Parliament rejects the Deal there is no need for an extension without a change of circumstance ie EUref2 or a GE
HYUFD makes a lot of statements that I find questionable, but in this instance he assesses the situation correctly, in my humble view. British pundits of any colour seem to severely underestimate the appetite in many, many member states to conclude the matter, now.
Stopped clock, etc.
Anyway, whatever their frustration with the UK, permitting a No Deal by refusing an extension would be throwing Ireland under the bus. I can't see them doing that, I really can't.
There is no risk to Ireland. MPs will never vote for No Deal when there is Boris's Deal instead.
0% risk. As we all know.
LOL. I have been chuckling at your posts all day mark, Such spin your get dizzy in it a minute. Let me help you fall over by slapping you with reality.
Mays Deal+added surrender to the EU. 😁😁😁
Tory Prime minster throws DUP to the dogs. 😆😆😆😆
Negotiating triumph. Take a backstop we can’t get out of. Turn it into a backstop we need the IRA’s permission to get out of 🤬
So [struggles to suppress sarcastic laughter] this is take back control is it?
Why are there any Tories daring top show their face on here today? Do they not realise beneath their surrender deal they are naked?
There is now no backstop for GB and a hard border is avoided in Northern Ireland with consent of a majority of NI parties required to change the situation
Here's how: Johnson loses vote on Saturday. UK faces No Deal breakfast - but Johnson refuses to send letter. VoNC. There isn't time for Swinson to f*** about. Even Farage backs Benn Act. Corbyn is PM. Letter is sent. 2nd ref follows.
It really is time for Boris to tell Arlene he is thinking of allowing a Referendum on Irish Unification unless of course Nigel and his 9 chums fall into line.
I think you'll have Grieve Gauke Greening Bebb against, the others may vote for, if the ERG are on board bar a few holdouts he might need ca 18 indies and labour for a deal..........
Gauke I think will vote yes but Grieve, Greening and Bebb no
Guys, a quick question. The vote on Saturday? What time of day is it?
Guys, I don't want to nag, but I would please appreciate an answer to this...
Depends if the rebels win the amendment, the government wants to effectively limit the debate whereas as the rebels could post many amendments effecting the actual length of the sitting and the timing of the vote(s).
The SNP may be furious they cannot use No Deal as an excuse to give them a good chance of Yes in any indyref2, I assure you a majority of Scots are not and will be happy Boris has a Deal with the EU that avoids No Deal.
By avoiding a hard border in Ireland between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland Boris has also made it less likely Northern Ireland votes for a united Ireland.
The Boris Deal thus delivers Brexit and removes the GB backstop (and ends free movement in GB and enables our own trade deals) and makes the breakup of the UK less likely
Come now - the recent polling was for 50% for indy, and that was pre Brexit.
That was excluding Don't Knows most of whom would go No as Quebec 1995 showed, only No Deal got a slim Yes majority in that poll.
Plus of course Boris and Westminster will block indyref2 for the foreseeable future anyway
Possibly you are not allowing for the fact that indyref2 will not be like the previous one. In a normal indyref to vote no is to take the easy option of the status quo. This is no longer possible. The status quo has been gleefully and publicly trashed and the Scots are not getting the nice option that the NI people are.
If I were, say, an Edinburgh middle-class type working in the financial industry, or a coastal fisherman, I might well vote Yes this time.
Remember - polling got more votes for independence in the event of Brexit.
In fact, it is a point to bear in mind for NI as well, and Wales too.
And re denying a vote - I thought you wanted to invade Spain, not emulate it?
The Scots are avoiding No Deal which us fine enough for most of them given a majority now want to respect the Leave vote and deliver Brexit.
Wales voted Leave.
I am not emulating Spain as I am not yet proposing arresting and jailing Sturgeon and SNP leaders as Spain has arrested and jailed Catalan leaders, I am only saying indyref2 should be blocked for the foreseeable future
C an you point me to a reputable poll saying the Scots now want Brexit, please?
As for Spain, it happened because the central gmtd denied the poll in the first place.
Here's how: Johnson loses vote on Saturday. UK faces No Deal breakfast - but Johnson refuses to send letter. VoNC. There isn't time for Swinson to f*** about. Even Farage backs Benn Act. Corbyn is PM. Letter is sent. 2nd ref follows.
He doesn't have the votes to become PM, even with the LDs
The SNP may be furious they cannot use No Deal as an excuse to give them a good chance of Yes in any indyref2, I assure you a majority of Scots are not and will be happy Boris has a Deal with the EU that avoids No Deal.
By avoiding a hard border in Ireland between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland Boris has also made it less likely Northern Ireland votes for a united Ireland.
The Boris Deal thus delivers Brexit and removes the GB backstop (and ends free movement in GB and enables our own trade deals) and makes the breakup of the UK less likely
Come now - the recent polling was for 50% for indy, and that was pre Brexit.
That was excluding Don't Knows most of whom would go No as Quebec 1995 showed, only No Deal got a slim Yes majority in that poll.
Plus of course Boris and Westminster will block indyref2 for the foreseeable future anyway
Possibly you are not allowing for the fact that indyref2 will not be like the previous one. In a normal indyref to vote no is to take the easy option of the status quo. This is no longer possible. The status quo has been gleefully and publicly trashed and the Scots are not getting the nice option that the NI people are.
If I were, say, an Edinburgh middle-class type working in the financial industry, or a coastal fisherman, I might well vote Yes this time.
Remember - polling got more votes for independence in the event of Brexit.
In fact, it is a point to bear in mind for NI as well, and Wales too.
And re denying a vote - I thought you wanted to invade Spain, not emulate it?
The Scots are avoiding No Deal which us fine enough for most of them given a majority now want to respect the Leave vote and deliver Brexit.
Wales voted Leave.
I am not emulating Spain as I am not yet proposing arresting and jailing Sturgeon and SNP leaders as Spain has arrested and jailed Catalan leaders, I am only saying indyref2 should be blocked for the foreseeable future
C an you point me to a reputable poll saying the Scots now want Brexit, please?
As for Spain, it happened because the central gmtd denied the poll in the first place.
Guys, a quick question. The vote on Saturday? What time of day is it?
Guys, I don't want to nag, but I would please appreciate an answer to this...
I think it depends on the number of amendments allowed but they are starting at 9:30 so I would think they are aiming for votes late afternoon (rather than into the evening say).
IANAE though.
Shit. The bank closes at 4pm. And my online banking does not work.
So we have Farage now celebrating Benn Act, Starmer claiming it definitely worse deal, even though he won't have seen the text yet and Swinson of course claiming the only deal is to stay in the EU.
The HoC will say no and its going to be more silly buggering around isn't it.
No it wil be No Deal then as the EU have now refused further extension
Junker saying 'we have a deal so there is no need for an extension' is not the same thing as him saying that there will be no extension. it is also in the gift of the council to decide not his. most of this was signalling, prompted by boris, to allow a deal/nodeal vote on saturday.
It is if the UK Parliament rejects the Deal there is no need for an extension without a change of circumstance ie EUref2 or a GE
HYUFD makes a lot of statements that I find questionable, but in this instance he assesses the situation correctly, in my humble view. British pundits of any colour seem to severely underestimate the appetite in many, many member states to conclude the matter, now.
Stopped clock, etc.
Anyway, whatever their frustration with the UK, permitting a No Deal by refusing an extension would be throwing Ireland under the bus. I can't see them doing that, I really can't.
There is no risk to Ireland. MPs will never vote for No Deal when there is Boris's Deal instead.
0% risk. As we all know.
LOL. I have been chuckling at your posts all day mark, Such spin your get dizzy in it a minute. Let me help you fall over by slapping you with reality.
Mays Deal+added surrender to the EU. 😁😁😁
Tory Prime minster throws DUP to the dogs. 😆😆😆😆
Negotiating triumph. Take a backstop we can’t get out of. Turn it into a backstop we need the IRA’s permission to get out of 🤬
So [struggles to suppress sarcastic laughter] this is take back control is it?
Why are there any Tories daring top show their face on here today? Do they not realise beneath their surrender deal they are naked?
There is now no backstop for GB and a hard border is avoided in Northern Ireland with consent of a majority of NI parties required to change the situation
A border down the Irish Sea. NI business will have to pay VAT / duties first, then reclaim it back. Such indignity.
I think you'll have Grieve Gauke Greening Bebb against, the others may vote for, if the ERG are on board bar a few holdouts he might need ca 18 indies and labour for a deal..........
And getting 18 switchers is a stretch. Maybe it could happen, maybe it should happen (though the pressure to sign this off nownowNOW is ominous). But maybe, in the grand scheme of things, nothing has changed today.
I think you'll have Grieve Gauke Greening Bebb against, the others may vote for, if the ERG are on board bar a few holdouts he might need ca 18 indies and labour for a deal..........
Here's how: Johnson loses vote on Saturday. UK faces No Deal breakfast - but Johnson refuses to send letter. VoNC. There isn't time for Swinson to f*** about. Even Farage backs Benn Act. Corbyn is PM. Letter is sent. 2nd ref follows.
He doesn't have the votes to become PM, even with the LDs
He can become PM but not stay PM after being VONC'd in turn.
To be fair, Johnson has, like all good politicians, the ability to fall in the sh1t and come up smelling of roses.
1) Boris gets Deal through Parliament - he is a national hero and wins a big majority. 2) Boris's Deal rejected by Parliament - Boris blames Opposition MPs. Voters back Boris and he wins a big majority. 3) Boris's Deal rejected by EU - Boris blames Europeans and wins big majority.
There has been no downside since the ComRes poll of June 12th showed only Boris among the leadership contenders capable of winning a large majority.
There is also the Churchill/Attlee scenario:
4) Boris gets Deal through Parliament; calls General Election; voters say "thanks very much, you've got Brexit done, now we're going to vote for someone else because we prefer them on domestic issues".
Except Remainers and the anti Boris vote is now split between the LDs and Corbyn whereas the anti Churchill vote was united behind Attlee.
Attlee also won after 14 years of Tory rule not only 9 years
Attlee won after a national government populated by Labour, Conservative and Liberal politicians.
With a Tory majority in the Commons throughout those years and a Tory PM
With a National Government majority. There were National Conservatives, National Liberals and National Labour members. Sure, there were non-National government MPs but it is a gross mischaraterisation of the period to claim it as a straight Conservative majority.
The National Conservatives won a landslide in the 1935 election and there was a big Tory majority from 1935 to 1945 in the Commons.
So my statement it was a Commons majority for the Tories throughout those years was 100% correct
You can believe that if you like, but it doesn't make it any more correct.
Here's how: Johnson loses vote on Saturday. UK faces No Deal breakfast - but Johnson refuses to send letter. VoNC. There isn't time for Swinson to f*** about. Even Farage backs Benn Act. Corbyn is PM. Letter is sent. 2nd ref follows.
He doesn't have the votes to become PM, even with the LDs
He can become PM but not stay PM after being VONC'd in turn.
The SNP may be furious they cannot use No Deal as an excuse to give them a good chance of Yes in any indyref2, I assure you a majority of Scots are not and will be happy Boris has a Deal with the EU that avoids No Deal.
By avoiding a hard border in Ireland between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland Boris has also made it less likely Northern Ireland votes for a united Ireland.
The Boris Deal thus delivers Brexit and removes the GB backstop (and ends free movement in GB and enables our own trade deals) and makes the breakup of the UK less likely
Come now - the recent polling was for 50% for indy, and that was pre Brexit.
That was excluding Don't Knows most of whom would go No as Quebec 1995 showed, only No Deal got a slim Yes majority in that poll.
Plus of course Boris and Westminster will block indyref2 for the foreseeable future anyway
Possibly you are not allowing for the fact that indyref2 will not be like the previous one. In a normal indyref to vote no is to take the easy option of the status quo. This is no longer possible. The status quo has been gleefully and publicly trashed and the Scots are not getting the nice option that the NI people are.
If I were, say, an Edinburgh middle-class type working in the financial industry, or a coastal fisherman, I might well vote Yes this time.
Remember - polling got more votes for independence in the event of Brexit.
In fact, it is a point to bear in mind for NI as well, and Wales too.
And re denying a vote - I thought you wanted to invade Spain, not emulate it?
The Scots are avoiding No Deal which us fine enough for most of them given a majority now want to respect the Leave vote and deliver Brexit.
Wales voted Leave.
I am not emulating Spain as I am not yet proposing arresting and jailing Sturgeon and SNP leaders as Spain has arrested and jailed Catalan leaders, I am only saying indyref2 should be blocked for the foreseeable future
C an you point me to a reputable poll saying the Scots now want Brexit, please?
As for Spain, it happened because the central gmtd denied the poll in the first place.
I think you'll have Grieve Gauke Greening Bebb against, the others may vote for, if the ERG are on board bar a few holdouts he might need ca 18 indies and labour for a deal..........
I reckon quite a few Labour abstentions.....
Yes, if they are willing to give up being Labour MPs and future candidature.
Here's how: Johnson loses vote on Saturday. UK faces No Deal breakfast - but Johnson refuses to send letter. VoNC. There isn't time for Swinson to f*** about. Even Farage backs Benn Act. Corbyn is PM. Letter is sent. 2nd ref follows.
He doesn't have the votes to become PM, even with the LDs
He can become PM but not stay PM after being VONC'd in turn.
he would have to pass a confidence vote in the first place which is a high hurdle. BJ remains until then
The SNP may be furious they cannot use No Deal as an excuse to give them a good chance of Yes in any indyref2, I assure you a majority of Scots are not and will be happy Boris has a Deal with the EU that avoids No Deal.
By avoiding a hard border in Ireland between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland Boris has also made it less likely Northern Ireland votes for a united Ireland.
The Boris Deal thus delivers Brexit and removes the GB backstop (and ends free movement in GB and enables our own trade deals) and makes the breakup of the UK less likely
Come now - the recent polling was for 50% for indy, and that was pre Brexit.
That was excluding Don't Knows most of whom would go No as Quebec 1995 showed, only No Deal got a slim Yes majority in that poll.
Plus of course Boris and Westminster will block indyref2 for the foreseeable future anyway
Possibly you are not allowing for the fact that indyref2 will not be like the previous one. In a normal indyref to vote no is to take the easy option of the status quo. This is no longer possible. The status quo has been gleefully and publicly trashed and the Scots are not getting the nice option that the NI people are.
If I were, say, an Edinburgh middle-class type working in the financial industry, or a coastal fisherman, I might well vote Yes this time.
Remember - polling got more votes for independence in the event of Brexit.
In fact, it is a point to bear in mind for NI as well, and Wales too.
And re denying a vote - I thought you wanted to invade Spain, not emulate it?
The Scots are avoiding No Deal which us fine enough for most of them given a majority now want to respect the Leave vote and deliver Brexit.
Wales voted Leave.
I am not emulating Spain as I am not yet proposing arresting and jailing Sturgeon and SNP leaders as Spain has arrested and jailed Catalan leaders, I am only saying indyref2 should be blocked for the foreseeable future
C an you point me to a reputable poll saying the Scots now want Brexit, please?
As for Spain, it happened because the central gmtd denied the poll in the first place.
That's a leading question - actually the real figure for wanting to stay is 54% witdh a more neutral question in that database. Interesting, though, that the Scots are still the least Brsexity of any region sampled.
Brilliant analysis by Cyclefree. Now where is that Motion for Sir Oliver Letwin to be charged with High Treason and like the Earl of Stafford, take one for his cause
Strafford?
typo sorry, trying to type with no lights on in the room
I think you'll have Grieve Gauke Greening Bebb against, the others may vote for, if the ERG are on board bar a few holdouts he might need ca 18 indies and labour for a deal..........
I reckon quite a few Labour abstentions.....
Yes, if they are willing to give up being Labour MPs and future candidature.
"Oh, was there a vote? I was catching up with the rugby...."
The SNP may be furious they cannot use No Deal as an excuse to give them a good chance of Yes in any indyref2, I assure you a majority of Scots are not and will be happy Boris has a Deal with the EU that avoids No Deal.
By avoiding a hard border in Ireland between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland Boris has also made it less likely Northern Ireland votes for a united Ireland.
The Boris Deal thus delivers Brexit and removes the GB backstop (and ends free movement in GB and enables our own trade deals) and makes the breakup of the UK less likely
Come now - the recent polling was for 50% for indy, and that was pre Brexit.
That was excluding Don't Knows most of whom would go No as Quebec 1995 showed, only No Deal got a slim Yes majority in that poll.
Plus of course Boris and Westminster will block indyref2 for the foreseeable future anyway
Possibly you are not allowing for the fact that indyref2 will not be like the previous one. In a normal indyref to vote no is to take the easy option of the status quo. This is no longer possible. The status quo has been gleefully and publicly trashed and the Scots are not getting the nice option that the NI people are.
If I were, say, an Edinburgh middle-class type working in the financial industry, or a coastal fisherman, I might well vote Yes this time.
Remember - polling got more votes for independence in the event of Brexit.
In fact, it is a point to bear in mind for NI as well, and Wales too.
And re denying a vote - I thought you wanted to invade Spain, not emulate it?
The Scots are avoiding No Deal which us fine enough for most of them given a majority now want to respect the Leave vote and deliver Brexit.
Wales voted Leave.
I am not emulating Spain as I am not yet proposing arresting and jailing Sturgeon and SNP leaders as Spain has arrested and jailed Catalan leaders, I am only saying indyref2 should be blocked for the foreseeable future
C an you point me to a reputable poll saying the Scots now want Brexit, please?
As for Spain, it happened because the central gmtd denied the poll in the first place.
Ahem. If I am very much mistaken, wasn't that the poll that gave four options (leave with Deal, leave no deal, remain, don't know) and then added the two Leaves together? Didn't will Jennings or somebody tweet saying that was not on?
I think you'll have Grieve Gauke Greening Bebb against, the others may vote for, if the ERG are on board bar a few holdouts he might need ca 18 indies and labour for a deal..........
I reckon quite a few Labour abstentions.....
Yes, if they are willing to give up being Labour MPs and future candidature.
Some gave up being Tory MPs over no deal, people with higher profiles than most. Some few other labour mps will probably be similarly bold. But not many.
The SNP may be furious they cannot use No Deal as an excuse to give them a good chance of Yes in any indyref2, I assure you a majority of Scots are not and will be happy Boris has a Deal with the EU that avoids No Deal.
By avoiding a hard border in Ireland between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland Boris has also made it less likely Northern Ireland votes for a united Ireland.
The Boris Deal thus delivers Brexit and removes the GB backstop (and ends free movement in GB and enables our own trade deals) and makes the breakup of the UK less likely
Come now - the recent polling was for 50% for indy, and that was pre Brexit.
That was excluding Don't Knows most of whom would go No as Quebec 1995 showed, only No Deal got a slim Yes majority in that poll.
Plus of course Boris and Westminster will block indyref2 for the foreseeable future anyway
Possibly you are not allowing for the fact that indyref2 will not be like the previous one. In a normal indyref to vote no is to take the easy option of the status quo. This is no longer possible. The status quo has been gleefully and publicly trashed and the Scots are not getting the nice option that the NI people are.
If I were, say, an Edinburgh middle-class type working in the financial industry, or a coastal fisherman, I might well vote Yes this time.
Remember - polling got more votes for independence in the event of Brexit.
In fact, it is a point to bear in mind for NI as well, and Wales too.
And re denying a vote - I thought you wanted to invade Spain, not emulate it?
The Scots are avoiding No Deal which us fine enough for most of them given a majority now want to respect the Leave vote and deliver Brexit.
Wales voted Leave.
I am not emulating Spain as I am not yet proposing arresting and jailing Sturgeon and SNP leaders as Spain has arrested and jailed Catalan leaders, I am only saying indyref2 should be blocked for the foreseeable future
You are irritating because you can't see the difference between a site that wants your opinions and one that wants your analysis
Comments
0% risk. As we all know.
Plus of course Boris and Westminster will block indyref2 for the foreseeable future anyway
Oooo. Ex-Tories might be very difficult to get on board.
So in short, nobody can say with certainty.
1) Yes it is on Saturday
2) It's currently 6:10pm in the UK
You're welcome.
Mays Deal+added surrender to the EU. 😁😁😁
Tory Prime minster throws DUP to the dogs. 😆😆😆😆
Negotiating triumph. Take a backstop we can’t get out of. Turn it into a backstop we need the IRA’s permission to get out of 🤬
So [struggles to suppress sarcastic laughter] this is take back control is it?
Why are there any Tories daring top show their face on here today? Do they not realise beneath their surrender deal they are naked?
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1935_United_Kingdom_general_election
https://calendar.parliament.uk/calendar/Commons/All/2019/10/19/Daily
https://twitter.com/AuschwitzMuseum/status/1184867113703477248
Not sure how much influence they have left . It looks like the ERG are going to vote yes .
IANAE though.
If I were, say, an Edinburgh middle-class type working in the financial industry, or a coastal fisherman, I might well vote Yes this time.
Remember - polling got more votes for independence in the event of Brexit.
In fact, it is a point to bear in mind for NI as well, and Wales too.
And re denying a vote - I thought you wanted to invade Spain, not emulate it?
https://twitter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/1184879754241028096?s=20
He can forget any chance of becoming London Mayor if he votes yes .
Farage is actually right and true to his principles. The Principles being the EU commission kicking UK parliament around and bouncing it always been the opposite to what he wants. The problem for Boris or Deal Christ any bloody deal bad or not fans is bully Junker is now on YOUR side.
What’s credibility shredding today ERG and Boris Government AND their EU commission allies try to bounce Britain into this messy, bad hard Brexit deal they have never had public endorsement for. The ballot paper merely said leave, not leave disastrously whilst destroying the union. 😁
But I would like to confirm that like Rory, I too got it wrong.
Wales voted Leave.
I am not emulating Spain as I am not yet proposing arresting and jailing Sturgeon and SNP leaders as Spain has arrested and jailed Catalan leaders, I am only saying indyref2 should be blocked for the foreseeable future
Here's how:
Johnson loses vote on Saturday.
UK faces No Deal breakfast - but Johnson refuses to send letter.
VoNC.
There isn't time for Swinson to f*** about. Even Farage backs Benn Act.
Corbyn is PM.
Letter is sent.
2nd ref follows.
As for Spain, it happened because the central gmtd denied the poll in the first place.
https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1184399764168859648?s=20
NI business will have to pay VAT / duties first, then reclaim it back. Such indignity.
https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1184881590851325952
That's a leading question - actually the real figure for wanting to stay is 54% witdh a more neutral question in that database. Interesting, though, that the Scots are still the least Brsexity of any region sampled.
Why would a Labour MP have whip with drawn for voting for this deal when Labour MPs whom voted for previous iterations did not?