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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Get ready for Boris’s big day to see CON resignations and the

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  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,751

    In an undisclosed location, the ERG are currently singing "Tomorrow Belongs to Me"

    "You still think you can control them, Boris?"
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    Roger said:

    TOPPING said:

    Was that @HYUFD there in the crowd reaching out for a snog?

    Congratulations to HYUFD. He predicted this catastrophe over two years ago and despite a lot of criticism stuck by his guns.

    It really wasn't predictable, So well done!
    Thanks Roger, sometimes being the odd one out does turn out to be the right decision, although I recognise you are not a Boris fan
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,133

    This doesn't look good for the Ashes...

    England fast bowler James Anderson has been ruled out of his side's Ashes warm-up Test against Ireland at Lord's. Fast bowlers Mark Wood and Jofra Archer have side strains and were not named in the squad for the Ireland game, which starts on Wednesday.

    Wood is unlikely to be fit before the fourth Ashes Test, which starts on 4 September, while England hope Archer could be available for the second Test, starting on 14 August.

    https://www.bbc.com/sport/cricket/49082928

    Broad, Woakes and Curran medium fast deliveries aren't exactly going to worry the convicts.

    Christ, there's more cricket? Haven't we had enough?
    The world cup was just the warm up to the main event.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,237
    TERRIBLE result for Johnson. Lost the campaign by a mile to the uninspiring Hunt.

    Corbyn will eat him for lunch.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163
    Dura_Ace said:

    This is what it sounds like when doves cry.

    Doves? I thought steely-eyed warriors like yourself shot them to prevent birdstrike? Or is that seagulls?

  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,605
    dixiedean said:

    Dude. FFS.

    Hey Dud, don't make it bad
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156

    HYUFD said:

    Jeremy Hunt....is a losing bet.

    No new shoes for TSE.

    TSE now owes me a pound I will donate to PBfunds
    I'm surprised you don't bet more given how strong your confidence level is in your predictions
    I come here for debate and discussion really, I am not a big better I just say what I think
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,217
    edited July 2019

    Pulpstar said:

    Final Betfair totals for me (Leader market)
    Boris Johnson
    £179.95

    Jeremy Hunt
    -£32.90

    Michael Gove
    £52.82

    Sajid Javid
    £328.32

    Andrea Leadsom
    -£1,656.10

    Field
    £195.32

    Johnson +£396.86
    Hunt +£24.50

    Everything else all safely green.

    On Betfair...

    But, I have £182 losing bets with the bookies made over the last 2 years, but one of them was a +£1,600 payout with SkyBet as I backed Hunt when he was at 100/1 and 60/1 some time ago.
    Next PM readies arrive tommorow :)

    Ken Clarke ta very much.
  • tpfkartpfkar Posts: 1,565
    This is the moment that probationary periods were invented for....
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    JackW said:

    Tabman said:

    JackW said:

    I think some in the audience are starting to realize what they've done.

    What gave you that impression Jack?
    The vaguely less than North Korean reception. It's like many in the hall had the sugar rush and then Boris began speaking. Odd .... mind you it was an odd speech - sounded unscripted, off the cuff and a little stale.
    Yep agreed. It really was awful. Mind you, who thinks he is actually a good orator? Do you remember the post-resignation let down in the House of Commons.

    He's better with pithy put downs and one-liners. In the odd sentence he can mask the vacuous crap with flowery language.

    I do wonder actually if he really wants this job. I suspect part of him doesn't. Especially not right now, both externally in terms of the politics and internally with the mess in his private life.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,773
    Sandpit said:
    they can smell the pork barrel.
  • Bob__SykesBob__Sykes Posts: 1,179
    Barnier: "We look forward to working constructively w/ PM @BorisJohnson when he takes office, to facilitate the ratification of the Withdrawal Agreement and achieve an orderly #Brexit. We are ready also to rework the agreed Declaration on a new partnership in line with #EUCO guidelines."

    LOL....
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Well done Betfair for settling up so quickly. It's always a nice feeling to transfer the winnings speedily into my bank account.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    Jeremy Hunt....is a losing bet.

    No new shoes for TSE.

    TSE now owes me a pound I will donate to PBfunds
    Your man won. I am happy for you that you are on the winning side.
    Thank you a great day
  • surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,469

    GIN1138 said:

    Has Nabavi sent his resignation letter in yet?

    It's written and ready to go once we have the formal announcement. For logistical reasons it will be sent tomorrow.
    That is a big step, Richard. Are you sure ?
    I resigned from Labour in 2003 but that was about a war. You can always "remain" a member but lie low.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    edited July 2019

    What did the ConHome poll say, HYUFD ? In numbers or percentages.

    I believe all the ConHome surveys had Boris 65%+
  • glwglw Posts: 9,912
    edited July 2019

    Barnier: "We look forward to working constructively w/ PM @BorisJohnson when he takes office, to facilitate the ratification of the Withdrawal Agreement and achieve an orderly #Brexit. We are ready also to rework the agreed Declaration on a new partnership in line with #EUCO guidelines."

    LOL....

    For any Boris fans I shall summarise.

    tl;dr Nothing has changed.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    Johnson also has a timing problem. As soon as he's in the door of No 10 Parliament goes off on holiday. August is normally silly season in the media. And we've all grown used to the Conservatives. No one, not even HUYFD and Phil T, can deny that there's apathy towards the party in the wider country. It's all fag-end stuff. And then there's next week's by-election.

    It will be the shortest honeymoon in British political history.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,038
    Priti on Sky 5 mins ago is clearly expecting return to cabinet. Foreign Sec was my prediction. And still is. So expect a war with Iran by the end of the month.
  • TabmanTabman Posts: 1,046
    JackW said:

    it was an odd speech - sounded unscripted, off the cuff and a little stale.

    Why change the habit of a lifetime? :-/

  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Jeremy Hunt....is a losing bet.

    No new shoes for TSE.

    TSE now owes me a pound I will donate to PBfunds
    I'm surprised you don't bet more given how strong your confidence level is in your predictions
    I come here for debate and discussion really, I am not a big better I just say what I think
    Well, I don't play roulette, but if I was very certain that the next spin would come up red, I'd reconsider.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,751
    kinabalu said:

    TERRIBLE result for Johnson. Lost the campaign by a mile to the uninspiring Hunt.

    Corbyn will eat him for lunch.

    After a No Deal Brexit, he'll have to join the queue like everyone else!
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    This doesn't look good for the Ashes...

    England fast bowler James Anderson has been ruled out of his side's Ashes warm-up Test against Ireland at Lord's. Fast bowlers Mark Wood and Jofra Archer have side strains and were not named in the squad for the Ireland game, which starts on Wednesday.

    Wood is unlikely to be fit before the fourth Ashes Test, which starts on 4 September, while England hope Archer could be available for the second Test, starting on 14 August.

    https://www.bbc.com/sport/cricket/49082928

    Broad, Woakes and Curran medium fast deliveries aren't exactly going to worry the convicts.

    Christ, there's more cricket? Haven't we had enough?
    What surprised me about this summer of sport is hearing more comments on the cricket than the Open golf.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688

    GIN1138 said:

    Has Nabavi sent his resignation letter in yet?

    It's written and ready to go once we have the formal announcement. For logistical reasons it will be sent tomorrow.
    That is a big step, Richard. Are you sure ?
    I resigned from Labour in 2003 but that was about a war. You can always "remain" a member but lie low.
    Do it Richard. This is a party hell bent on self-destruction.

    LibDems are the way forward now.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    I do not support Boris, I did not vote for Boris, and he will have a lot of enemies

    However, today he is almost certain to become leader of the conservative party and Prime Minister and I wish him well and genuinely hope he surprises on the upside

    I am very interested in his speech which will no doubt be about unity and to this end his appointments to cabinet will demonstrate if he means what he says

    I want to see a diverse cabinet including some sensible former remainers who support Brexit but are reluctant no dealers ( Amber Rudd and Nicky Morgan spring to mind)

    You effectively voted for Boris by not voting against him.
    I could not vote for either
    You enabled Boris by not voting against him. You were not an impartial observer.
    I don't think that is being fair to Big_G. I have had the same nonsense thrown at me when declaring my firm intention to spoil my ballot paper in a marginal seat at the next general election. I refuse to be emotionally blackmailed by the argument that by effectively abstaining , I will be 'letting in the Tory'. If there are strong overriding reasons to justify not supporting any of the candidates available, abstention is a perfectly honourable - and the most honest - choice to make.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414

    Johnson also has a timing problem. As soon as he's in the door of No 10 Parliament goes off on holiday. August is normally silly season in the media. And we've all grown used to the Conservatives. No one, not even HUYFD and Phil T, can deny that there's apathy towards the party in the wider country. It's all fag-end stuff. And then there's next week's by-election.

    It will be the shortest honeymoon in British political history.

    The reaction in the hall was telling. When he said "Do you feel daunted?" He was clearly expecting a raucous No!!!
    Instead, they just sat there, well, daunted.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,627

    Well done Betfair for settling up so quickly. It's always a nice feeling to transfer the winnings speedily into my bank account.

    Well done to yourself, @HYUFD and all those who won on Johnson.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,133
    edited July 2019
    AndyJS said:
    Their one employee is busy earning their money....
  • surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,469
    HYUFD said:

    What did the ConHome poll say, HYUFD ? In numbers or percentages.

    I believe all the ConHome surveys had Boris 65%+
    Very clever, DUDE !
    Here it is:
    https://www.conservativehome.com/tag/next-tory-leader 73:27. So Mike was correct. Boris always underachieves what polls say.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    edited July 2019
    kinabalu said:

    TERRIBLE result for Johnson. Lost the campaign by a mile to the uninspiring Hunt.

    Corbyn will eat him for lunch.

    Boris got 66% of Tory members, more than the 59% of Labour members and supporters Corbyn got in 2015 and the 61% he got in 2016.

    Boris will rally Leavers behind him now and Swinson may well rally Remainers behind her and Corbyn might now find it is actually him on the menu
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163

    In an undisclosed location, the ERG are currently singing "Tomorrow Belongs to Me"

    Some of them may want to wait until their chickens have hatched before they start counting them.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,133
    HYUFD said:

    What did the ConHome poll say, HYUFD ? In numbers or percentages.

    I believe all the ConHome surveys had Boris 65%+
    For all our disagreements you have been consistent in Boris and you deserve credit for that

    I did not want Boris, but I do not want the party to splinter so I await with interest his cabinet appointments and trust his desire for unity will be reflected in them

    Interesting times and we are still in a political climate that anything could happen
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163

    This doesn't look good for the Ashes...

    England fast bowler James Anderson has been ruled out of his side's Ashes warm-up Test against Ireland at Lord's. Fast bowlers Mark Wood and Jofra Archer have side strains and were not named in the squad for the Ireland game, which starts on Wednesday.

    Wood is unlikely to be fit before the fourth Ashes Test, which starts on 4 September, while England hope Archer could be available for the second Test, starting on 14 August.

    https://www.bbc.com/sport/cricket/49082928

    Broad, Woakes and Curran medium fast deliveries aren't exactly going to worry the convicts.

    Christ, there's more cricket? Haven't we had enough?
    Certainly not.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,605
    dixiedean said:

    Johnson also has a timing problem. As soon as he's in the door of No 10 Parliament goes off on holiday. August is normally silly season in the media. And we've all grown used to the Conservatives. No one, not even HUYFD and Phil T, can deny that there's apathy towards the party in the wider country. It's all fag-end stuff. And then there's next week's by-election.

    It will be the shortest honeymoon in British political history.

    The reaction in the hall was telling. When he said "Do you feel daunted?" He was clearly expecting a raucous No!!!
    Instead, they just sat there, well, daunted.
    Yes I noticed that! :)
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    edited July 2019

    GIN1138 said:

    Has Nabavi sent his resignation letter in yet?

    It's written and ready to go once we have the formal announcement. For logistical reasons it will be sent tomorrow.
    That is a big step, Richard. Are you sure ?
    I resigned from Labour in 2003 but that was about a war. You can always "remain" a member but lie low.
    It's not so much that the party has chosen Boris, although that's bad enough, it's the reasons why they've chosen him. Hardly anyone I've talked to think he's actually fit to be PM, it's a choice not only of desperation, but above all of denial. They have chosen Boris not despite the fact that he's peddling fairy dust, but precisely because they know he's peddling fairy dust, and that's what they want.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    kle4 said:

    In an undisclosed location, the ERG are currently singing "Tomorrow Belongs to Me"

    Some of them may want to wait until their chickens have hatched before they start counting them.
    "Are you ready to be heartbroken?"
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,751
    This is not a day for soundbites, but I feel the hand of hysteria upon our shoulder.
  • TabmanTabman Posts: 1,046
    You know you want to :-)

    To any and all PBers wavering, the more sane, economic Liberals join, the better. Then the party really will change for good.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,133
    This bloke won't have had any trouble watching all that sport the other weekend...

    In his bedroom police found a total of 57 Sky Italia satellite decoders which were configured to receive Sky’s broadcasts.

    https://torrentfreak.com/police-dismantle-pirate-iptv-provider-seize-cash-crypto-gold-bars-190723/
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,683

    I am pleased Johnson will be PM. I want him to appoint No Deal backers only to his Cabinet. I want the English nationalist, hard right to unequivocally own everything that happens from here. That is the quickest route to their final, humiliating defeat.

    A non-No Dealer would surely be mad to serve. The Leave blame machine will single them out as the reason for every Brexit mishap. 'If it wasn't for Remainer X in the cabinet conspiring with the civil service then Boris's plan would have gone just swimmingly.' Who'd want that?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    Sandpit said:

    Well done Betfair for settling up so quickly. It's always a nice feeling to transfer the winnings speedily into my bank account.

    Well done to yourself, @HYUFD and all those who won on Johnson.
    Thanks
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156

    HYUFD said:

    What did the ConHome poll say, HYUFD ? In numbers or percentages.

    I believe all the ConHome surveys had Boris 65%+
    For all our disagreements you have been consistent in Boris and you deserve credit for that

    I did not want Boris, but I do not want the party to splinter so I await with interest his cabinet appointments and trust his desire for unity will be reflected in them

    Interesting times and we are still in a political climate that anything could happen
    Thanks BigG and yes give Boris a chance
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,217
    I've joined, ran for election and resigned in the last couple of years. If you want to deliver lots of leaflets its an amazing experience.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,131
    As pointed out earlier this year following the March debacle, my political betting this year will consist mostly of currency conversion, so I did not have a dog in this fight. It seems to have been an object lesson in how to win money on the Con leadership election. I think Boris will be PM for longer than most people on here think, so those lessons will not be useful for some time, but good lessons nevertheless.

    So. Congratulations to those who won money and genuine commiserations to those who lost: I hope you recoup your losses. Special mention to @HYUFD and @TheScreamingEagles , who spotted Boris and Hunt respectively.

    So. What's next?... :)
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414

    GIN1138 said:

    Has Nabavi sent his resignation letter in yet?

    It's written and ready to go once we have the formal announcement. For logistical reasons it will be sent tomorrow.
    That is a big step, Richard. Are you sure ?
    I resigned from Labour in 2003 but that was about a war. You can always "remain" a member but lie low.
    Do it Richard. This is a party hell bent on self-destruction.

    LibDems are the way forward now.
    Very possibly. The Tories are frankly obsessed by Corbyn. They sound like a football manager bent on finishing above United, and end up second to City.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,733

    HYUFD said:

    What did the ConHome poll say, HYUFD ? In numbers or percentages.

    I believe all the ConHome surveys had Boris 65%+
    Very clever, DUDE !
    Here it is:
    https://www.conservativehome.com/tag/next-tory-leader 73:27. So Mike was correct. Boris always underachieves what polls say.
    Considering his slightly lukewarm lead from the MPs and the suppossed fanaticism of the swivel eyed entryist membership, that is a faint hearted endorsement.

    Is there a Boris out by Christmas market yet?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    What harm in doing it? You're not committed for life.
  • glwglw Posts: 9,912

    It's not so much that the party has chosen Boris, although that's bad enough, it's the reasons why they've chosen him. Hardly anyone I've talked to think he's actually fit to be PM, it's a choice not only of desperation, but above all of denial. They have chosen Boris not despite the fact that he's peddling fairy dust, but precisely because they know he's peddling fairy dust, and that's what they want.

    It's very similar to Labour electing Corbyn. It's not about policy, governing, having a plan and delivering that plan, it's all about feeling that "well at least one of us in in charge of the party now".
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675
    Here comes the B team. Heaven help us.

    ttfn
  • surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,469

    Sandpit said:
    they can smell the pork barrel.
    The quote says GBP 3 billion this time.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772

    GIN1138 said:

    Has Nabavi sent his resignation letter in yet?

    It's written and ready to go once we have the formal announcement. For logistical reasons it will be sent tomorrow.
    That is a big step, Richard. Are you sure ?
    I resigned from Labour in 2003 but that was about a war. You can always "remain" a member but lie low.
    It's not so much that the party has chosen Boris, although that's bad enough, it's the reasons why they've chosen him. Hardly anyone I've talked to think he's actually fit to be PM, it's a choice not only of desperation, but above all of denial. They have chosen Boris not despite the fact that he's peddling fairy dust, but precisely because they know he's peddling fairy dust, and that's what they want.
    Very well put. They cannot bear reality.
  • TabmanTabman Posts: 1,046
    Fibre broadband? Has he not heard of 5G?
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    Just to put my prediction on Boris down in writing: It's been my position now for some time that what motivates voters is whether they sense (accurately or not) that a politician or party represents their values- or, almost as good, opposes the values of their perceived enemies.

    I feel like Boris has sort of done okay at this so with references to Churchill and such, but that when it comes down to it, he doesn't really know who he represents and unlike Trump I don't think he has the personality that will lead him to find his way into a niche. I think Brexiteer support for him is built on unstable foundations- much like Lib Dems with their tuition U-turn, it won't take much for them to realise that in his heart, he's not on their side. (And like with the lib dems, this will be understood as them being enraged and betrayed, even when for many it'll be a dispassionate calculation that Boris doesn't have their backs). This is why I think he'll fail if he leads the party into an election.

    There's a few ways I could be wrong:

    - He could be a poor politician but still win the next election through a mix of opposition parties having worse woes than the Tories and maybe an unexpectedly good Brexit outcome.
    - I could be wrong about his instincts, maybe he will actually be good at convincing voters that he represents their values. In this case I'll have misjudged him, but it won't change my mind about how voters behave.
    - Neither of the above happens, but he still storms to victory based purely on personality and empty charisma. If this happens I'd have to seriously reconsider my understanding of politics.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163

    GIN1138 said:

    Has Nabavi sent his resignation letter in yet?

    It's written and ready to go once we have the formal announcement. For logistical reasons it will be sent tomorrow.
    That is a big step, Richard. Are you sure ?
    I resigned from Labour in 2003 but that was about a war. You can always "remain" a member but lie low.
    You can also always rejoin, so why lay low during the dark times?
  • eekeek Posts: 28,406
    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    What did the ConHome poll say, HYUFD ? In numbers or percentages.

    I believe all the ConHome surveys had Boris 65%+
    Very clever, DUDE !
    Here it is:
    https://www.conservativehome.com/tag/next-tory-leader 73:27. So Mike was correct. Boris always underachieves what polls say.
    Considering his slightly lukewarm lead from the MPs and the suppossed fanaticism of the swivel eyed entryist membership, that is a faint hearted endorsement.

    Is there a Boris out by Christmas market yet?
    November 19th is the important date. If Boris leaves before then he will be in the history books as the shortest reigning PM...
  • eekeek Posts: 28,406

    Sandpit said:
    they can smell the pork barrel.
    The quote says GBP 3 billion this time.
    Boris is negotiating - I suspect NI will end up with GBP 5bn (a month)...
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414
    One thing we didn't discover was the number of Mr and Mrs Big G's who voted Neither. Must be more than the 500 odd spoiled ballots. Were they counted as abstentions?
  • surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,469
    Jo Johnson was sitting with sister and father. I wonder if he remembers his resignation letter to PM May.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,406
    Tabman said:

    Fibre broadband? Has he not heard of 5G?

    The 20th century solution to a problem that's been solved by China...
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    justin124 said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    I do not support Boris, I did not vote for Boris, and he will have a lot of enemies

    However, today he is almost certain to become leader of the conservative party and Prime Minister and I wish him well and genuinely hope he surprises on the upside

    I am very interested in his speech which will no doubt be about unity and to this end his appointments to cabinet will demonstrate if he means what he says

    I want to see a diverse cabinet including some sensible former remainers who support Brexit but are reluctant no dealers ( Amber Rudd and Nicky Morgan spring to mind)

    You effectively voted for Boris by not voting against him.
    I could not vote for either
    You enabled Boris by not voting against him. You were not an impartial observer.
    I don't think that is being fair to Big_G. I have had the same nonsense thrown at me when declaring my firm intention to spoil my ballot paper in a marginal seat at the next general election. I refuse to be emotionally blackmailed by the argument that by effectively abstaining , I will be 'letting in the Tory'. If there are strong overriding reasons to justify not supporting any of the candidates available, abstention is a perfectly honourable - and the most honest - choice to make.
    Agreed
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,627
    Scott_P said:
    That’s what happens when “not racist” is not something that be unequivocally said about the leader of the opposition.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,865

    GIN1138 said:

    Has Nabavi sent his resignation letter in yet?

    It's written and ready to go once we have the formal announcement. For logistical reasons it will be sent tomorrow.
    That is a big step, Richard. Are you sure ?
    I resigned from Labour in 2003 but that was about a war. You can always "remain" a member but lie low.
    It's not so much that the party has chosen Boris, although that's bad enough, it's the reasons why they've chosen him. Hardly anyone I've talked to think he's actually fit to be PM, it's a choice not only of desperation, but above all of denial. They have chosen Boris not despite the fact that he's peddling fairy dust, but precisely because they know he's peddling fairy dust, and that's what they want.
    The dishonesty, incompetence and sheer dullness of the May years imposed a heavy price on the party. It is almost acceptable if someone is Machiavellian in a competent way and delivers effective government but she had all the cunning of a latter series Baldrick and left the country and the party in a terrible place.

    That has driven the party and the country to a less nuanced, more committed position on both sides of the divide. It will be Boris' challenge to find a way by which he can deliver a policy around which a consensus can build and to work on developing that consensus. Can he do it? Who knows but almost anything has to be better than the last 3 years.

    There is a lot of bitterness and cynicism, far more than any new PM I can recall, but we really should all wish him well. Its our country, after all.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,751
    HYUFD said:
    From that, no one would guess the man was a professional writer.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    eek said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    What did the ConHome poll say, HYUFD ? In numbers or percentages.

    I believe all the ConHome surveys had Boris 65%+
    Very clever, DUDE !
    Here it is:
    https://www.conservativehome.com/tag/next-tory-leader 73:27. So Mike was correct. Boris always underachieves what polls say.
    Considering his slightly lukewarm lead from the MPs and the suppossed fanaticism of the swivel eyed entryist membership, that is a faint hearted endorsement.

    Is there a Boris out by Christmas market yet?
    November 19th is the important date. If Boris leaves before then he will be in the history books as the shortest reigning PM...
    As insecure and vain as he reportedly is I am sure he will move heaven and earth to make sure that does not happen. It's the one reason I dont think a very quick GE is completely nailed on as as confident as he may be I doubt think he wants to risk that record .
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,298
    kle4 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Has Nabavi sent his resignation letter in yet?

    It's written and ready to go once we have the formal announcement. For logistical reasons it will be sent tomorrow.
    That is a big step, Richard. Are you sure ?
    I resigned from Labour in 2003 but that was about a war. You can always "remain" a member but lie low.
    You can also always rejoin, so why lay low during the dark times?
    What are the rules on rejoining when there is a new contest? If you're not allowed to vote in a future contest, then makes sense to stay and wait [and it might not be that long tbh...]
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    glw said:

    It's not so much that the party has chosen Boris, although that's bad enough, it's the reasons why they've chosen him. Hardly anyone I've talked to think he's actually fit to be PM, it's a choice not only of desperation, but above all of denial. They have chosen Boris not despite the fact that he's peddling fairy dust, but precisely because they know he's peddling fairy dust, and that's what they want.

    It's very similar to Labour electing Corbyn. It's not about policy, governing, having a plan and delivering that plan, it's all about feeling that "well at least one of us in in charge of the party now".
    That was Theresa May, surely, who represented the party in the country as opposed to the Chipping Norton set and Notting Hill trustafarian Cameroons. Likewise Ed Miliband for Labour.

    Boris and Corbyn depend on entryists.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Well done Boris.

    Loving the gnashing of teeth from the twaterati.

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163

    GIN1138 said:

    Has Nabavi sent his resignation letter in yet?

    It's written and ready to go once we have the formal announcement. For logistical reasons it will be sent tomorrow.
    That is a big step, Richard. Are you sure ?
    I resigned from Labour in 2003 but that was about a war. You can always "remain" a member but lie low.
    It's not so much that the party has chosen Boris, although that's bad enough, it's the reasons why they've chosen him. Hardly anyone I've talked to think he's actually fit to be PM, it's a choice not only of desperation, but above all of denial. They have chosen Boris not despite the fact that he's peddling fairy dust, but precisely because they know he's peddling fairy dust, and that's what they want.
    Indeed. And others dislike him but think he is best to save their seats.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,653
    A young mother with a dodgy past taking on two racist, bone idle, mendacious nostalgics, worshipped by party memberships completely removed from reality, as the country they all seek to lead sinks into stagnant irrelevance. It has the makings of a Scando-noir thriller.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163

    glw said:

    It's not so much that the party has chosen Boris, although that's bad enough, it's the reasons why they've chosen him. Hardly anyone I've talked to think he's actually fit to be PM, it's a choice not only of desperation, but above all of denial. They have chosen Boris not despite the fact that he's peddling fairy dust, but precisely because they know he's peddling fairy dust, and that's what they want.

    It's very similar to Labour electing Corbyn. It's not about policy, governing, having a plan and delivering that plan, it's all about feeling that "well at least one of us in in charge of the party now".
    That was Theresa May, surely, who represented the party in the country as opposed to the Chipping Norton set and Notting Hill trustafarian Cameroons. Likewise Ed Miliband for Labour.

    Boris and Corbyn depend on entryists.
    Corbyn won with older members as well as new.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
  • surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,469

    I am pleased Johnson will be PM. I want him to appoint No Deal backers only to his Cabinet. I want the English nationalist, hard right to unequivocally own everything that happens from here. That is the quickest route to their final, humiliating defeat.

    A non-No Dealer would surely be mad to serve. The Leave blame machine will single them out as the reason for every Brexit mishap. 'If it wasn't for Remainer X in the cabinet conspiring with the civil service then Boris's plan would have gone just swimmingly.' Who'd want that?
    Really ? Amber Rudd is singing from the BoJo hymmsheet.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,038
    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    What did the ConHome poll say, HYUFD ? In numbers or percentages.

    I believe all the ConHome surveys had Boris 65%+
    Very clever, DUDE !
    Here it is:
    https://www.conservativehome.com/tag/next-tory-leader 73:27. So Mike was correct. Boris always underachieves what polls say.
    Considering his slightly lukewarm lead from the MPs and the suppossed fanaticism of the swivel eyed entryist membership, that is a faint hearted endorsement.

    Is there a Boris out by Christmas market yet?
    Strip out the votes of the 40,000 entryists and it would have been a close result..
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Jeremy Hunt....is a losing bet.

    No new shoes for TSE.

    TSE now owes me a pound I will donate to PBfunds
    I'm surprised you don't bet more given how strong your confidence level is in your predictions
    I come here for debate and discussion really, I am not a big better I just say what I think
    Well, I don't play roulette, but if I was very certain that the next spin would come up red, I'd reconsider.
    I find it helpful to mentally add "I think that..." or similar before reading many posts on here. In @HYUFD's case this is especially useful, but plenty of others (myself included) are guilty of presenting our guesses as to what the future will bring as fact.

    It would be great if more people could try and give some indication as to how much salt others should or shouldn't take each post with ("I hope...", "I am pretty sure that..." "It's most likely that...", etc).
  • TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,878
    Tabman said:

    You know you want to :-)

    To any and all PBers wavering, the more sane, economic Liberals join, the better. Then the party really will change for good.
    I'm a Leaver (I know in certain circles, that means I'm a do-or-die No Dealer, nuclear attack on France - even though I'm actually a EFTA/EEA) and that will probably prevent me rejoining as a member, but my local association leader did contact me last night (I'd been a member, and leafleted for her in the past) suggesting I become a support. I suspect I might do the latter.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    DavidL said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Has Nabavi sent his resignation letter in yet?

    It's written and ready to go once we have the formal announcement. For logistical reasons it will be sent tomorrow.
    That is a big step, Richard. Are you sure ?
    I resigned from Labour in 2003 but that was about a war. You can always "remain" a member but lie low.
    It's not so much that the party has chosen Boris, although that's bad enough, it's the reasons why they've chosen him. Hardly anyone I've talked to think he's actually fit to be PM, it's a choice not only of desperation, but above all of denial. They have chosen Boris not despite the fact that he's peddling fairy dust, but precisely because they know he's peddling fairy dust, and that's what they want.
    The dishonesty, incompetence and sheer dullness of the May years imposed a heavy price on the party. It is almost acceptable if someone is Machiavellian in a competent way and delivers effective government but she had all the cunning of a latter series Baldrick and left the country and the party in a terrible place.

    That has driven the party and the country to a less nuanced, more committed position on both sides of the divide. It will be Boris' challenge to find a way by which he can deliver a policy around which a consensus can build and to work on developing that consensus. Can he do it? Who knows but almost anything has to be better than the last 3 years.

    There is a lot of bitterness and cynicism, far more than any new PM I can recall, but we really should all wish him well. Its our country, after all.
    I hope he does well for all our sakes. But the man is a complete bullshitter relying on saying belief is enough to do anything. I hope he is more serious and gets lucky fast, as we all need it.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,131

    I am pleased Johnson will be PM. I want him to appoint No Deal backers only to his Cabinet. I want the English nationalist, hard right to unequivocally own everything that happens from here. That is the quickest route to their final, humiliating defeat.

    A non-No Dealer would surely be mad to serve. The Leave blame machine will single them out as the reason for every Brexit mishap. 'If it wasn't for Remainer X in the cabinet conspiring with the civil service then Boris's plan would have gone just swimmingly.' Who'd want that?
    Really ? Amber Rudd is singing from the BoJo hymmsheet.
    That won't save her.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414

    A young mother with a dodgy past taking on two racist, bone idle, mendacious nostalgics, worshipped by party memberships completely removed from reality, as the country they all seek to lead sinks into stagnant irrelevance. It has the makings of a Scando-noir thriller.

    Well, there's always Farage...
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,683

    I am pleased Johnson will be PM. I want him to appoint No Deal backers only to his Cabinet. I want the English nationalist, hard right to unequivocally own everything that happens from here. That is the quickest route to their final, humiliating defeat.

    A non-No Dealer would surely be mad to serve. The Leave blame machine will single them out as the reason for every Brexit mishap. 'If it wasn't for Remainer X in the cabinet conspiring with the civil service then Boris's plan would have gone just swimmingly.' Who'd want that?
    Really ? Amber Rudd is singing from the BoJo hymmsheet.
    I doubt that will save her when the ERG types are look around for someone to blame.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,884
    Sandpit said:
    Oh, THAT Nigel :lol:
  • surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,469
    After hearing Boris won, Anderson resigned from the England cricket team.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Caller on R5 re Boris

    "This is the worst thing that has ever happened to me "

    LOL !
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677
    eek said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    What did the ConHome poll say, HYUFD ? In numbers or percentages.

    I believe all the ConHome surveys had Boris 65%+
    Very clever, DUDE !
    Here it is:
    https://www.conservativehome.com/tag/next-tory-leader 73:27. So Mike was correct. Boris always underachieves what polls say.
    Considering his slightly lukewarm lead from the MPs and the suppossed fanaticism of the swivel eyed entryist membership, that is a faint hearted endorsement.

    Is there a Boris out by Christmas market yet?
    November 19th is the important date. If Boris leaves before then he will be in the history books as the shortest reigning PM...
    Will Corbo be the only LotO to have seen off 3 PMs?
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976
    Would the opposite response have been a good thing in practice, regardless of your personal feelings?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,869
    dixiedean said:

    One thing we didn't discover was the number of Mr and Mrs Big G's who voted Neither. Must be more than the 500 odd spoiled ballots. Were they counted as abstentions?

    A blank ballot paper is counted as spoiled.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,751
    If there are any MPs planning to leave the party, do people think they will go today, or wait until Johnson actually becomes prime minister? (At which point Donald Trump will presumably congratulate him on becoming leader of the Conservative Party.)
This discussion has been closed.