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  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    edited July 2019
    stodge said:

    rkrkrk said:


    Big opportunity for Jo & Lib Dems. But all the Lib Dems I know are absolutely scarred from the coalition and yet that seems to be the best way of getting their policies into government.

    My personal view is that the Lib Dems made some pretty colossal political errors in the last coalition. If they avoid things like tripling tuition fees, then there's no reason why they can't prosper electorally from a successful coalition government.

    Around three quarters of the current LD membership joined the Party after 2015. The party I joined in 1980 perished in the fires of the Coalition. That's not to say the Coalition Experience doesn't resonate but it's different perhaps for the MPs who went through it (which excludes Layla Moran) and the membership which largely didn't.

    I've argued on here many times tuition fees and the AV referendum were colossal unnecessary self-inflicted mistakes while the Conservatives proved far more adept at handling dealing with coalition than I and others in the LDs thought they would and in truth the LDs never found a way to respond to David Cameron.

    As a Sheffield man once said "that was then but this is now".

    I think the line now is to regard both a Johnson led Conservative Party and a Corbyn led Labour Party as the sort for which, were we to be forced to sup with them, the longest of spoons would be required. So much in terms of negotiation depends on the parliamentary arithmetic and the simple observation is the more MPs you have the more power you have in a post-election situation.



    The LDs could do us all a massive favour and, if the chance arises, indicate their support for a Lab minority government is conditional on Jezza and his kitchen cabinet going.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,806
    Mr. Stodge, if Boris wins today the Lib Dems ought to try and work out a strategy to become one of the big two, not simply contenting themselves as third-placed kingmakers.

    They may never again have a strategic situation so much in their favour.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,237
    AndyJS said:

    Is Stephen Lloyd going to be readmitted as a LD MP at some point?

    Yes
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    AndyJS said:

    Is Stephen Lloyd going to be readmitted as a LD MP at some point?

    He's more the MP for Eastbourne than a Lib Dem. After the referendum he promised to support the pro-Brexit views of his constituents. I think his actions will be determined by how they play out for his personal vote. I don't know if or how opinion is moving there, but he will.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992

    TOPPING said:

    I do not support Boris, I did not vote for Boris, and he will have a lot of enemies

    However, today he is almost certain to become leader of the conservative party and Prime Minister and I wish him well and genuinely hope he surprises on the upside

    I am very interested in his speech which will no doubt be about unity and to this end his appointments to cabinet will demonstrate if he means what he says

    I want to see a diverse cabinet including some sensible former remainers who support Brexit but are reluctant no dealers ( Amber Rudd and Nicky Morgan spring to mind)

    You effectively voted for Boris by not voting against him.
    I could not vote for either
    You enabled Boris by not voting against him. You were not an impartial observer.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,406
    stodge said:

    Meanwhile, in other news, perhaps some of Johnson's largesse should be directed here rather than pointless tax cuts:

    https://www.publicfinance.co.uk/news/2019/07/send-duties-increasing-pressure-councils?utm_source=Adestra&utm_medium=email&utm_term=

    Another thing created by Labour believe it or not. It's remarkable how much older the parents of special need children are now compared to even 10 years ago...
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,869

    AndyJS said:

    Is Stephen Lloyd going to be readmitted as a LD MP at some point?

    He's more the MP for Eastbourne than a Lib Dem. After the referendum he promised to support the pro-Brexit views of his constituents. I think his actions will be determined by how they play out for his personal vote. I don't know if or how opinion is moving there, but he will.
    He does however also need the local party organisation and its deliverers and canvassers
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,005

    rkrkrk said:

    stodge said:

    The Brexit party is a busted flush. Zero MPs and heading for a further flop next week in Brecon

    First, congratulations on being on the winning side in terms of choosing Jo. I voted for Ed - I thought he was better at the London Hustings. I think the piece in last Wednesday's Standard was extremely insightful and perhaps a good commentary on why Jo was the better choice. Sometimes you have to look at the bigger picture.

    Big opportunity for Jo & Lib Dems. But all the Lib Dems I know are absolutely scarred from the coalition and yet that seems to be the best way of getting their policies into government.

    My personal view is that the Lib Dems made some pretty colossal political errors in the last coalition. If they avoid things like tripling tuition fees, then there's no reason why they can't prosper electorally from a successful coalition government.
    Well, of course, there are further disastrous LibDem coalitions to consider.

    After the elections in 1999 and 2003, they were in power with SLAB in Scotland.

    They were & are in power with Llafur in Wales. (Labour have cunningly dumped Dim Kirsty with Education, one of the most disastrous & poorly performing portfolios).

    All these coalitions led to lost seats and votes.

    The truth is the LibDems say one thing to left-leaning voters and another thing to right-leaning voters. That is why LibDem Coalitions lead on to disappointment.
    To be strictly fair the Scottish LDs increased their vote share at Holyrood in 2003 and 2007 so their coalition with SLab didn't seem to be particularly disastrous for them. Of course that vote share went off a cliff in 2011, I think we can guess which disastrous coalition caused that.

    It'll be interesting to see if the stain of working with the Tories has been completely washed off, or being the party of EUref II is temporarily masking it. I'm not sure if shrilly denouncing Corbyn as Swinson was doing this morning or indulging in circuitous half logic as to why the nasty Nats should never be allowed a second referendum while a second EU ref is inevitable are quite the right notes to start on. Apart from anything else she'll need cooperation from both these parties to get her precious.

  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,707
    The excellent DiamondGeezer blog on Boris as mayor:
    http://diamondgeezer.blogspot.com/2019/07/from-city-hall-to-downing-street.html

    He isn't going to be a very good PM, is he?
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    eek said:

    TOPPING said:

    Pulpstar said:



    Peterborough was a fair chance, Brecon not so good. If Dover comes along shortly after October 31st it absolutely HAS to be won by The Brexit Party

    It was over after TBP lost Posh.

    My guess is TBP will underperform the poll in B&R. They habitually underperform polls.

    Dover ... as the case of Nigel Evans showed, it perhaps wise to wait to hear the evidence the police have amassed.

    We have just had a very vivid demonstration of police incompetence on a truly massive scale.
    As noted above, they don't need to over or under perform in polls. They just need to maintain their boot on the neck of the leader of the Conservative party and it's job done for them.
    My point is there a difference between a by-election and a GE.

    In 2015, UKIP got 12 per cent of the vote. It did the Tories good. They won a majority.

    I suspect in a GE, TBP will end with ~ 12 per cent of the vote.
    In 2015 though the Tory party won a lot of centre right votes from remainer voters.

    Those votes are not returning to Boris so every TBP vote is a lost Tory vote...
    I have no idea and would not care to predict the outcome of the next GE.

    I was merely making the point that 3rd in a by-election in B&R against a seriously compromised Tory candidate is poor for TBP.

    I expect TBP will decline to about 12 per cent by the time of a GE. Who that actually hurts in a GE is hard to predict.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,264
    IanB2 said:
    Will this lot be less pillock-ridden than Extinction Rebellion?

    The ExR woman interviewed by Sky, who eventually admitted that she commuted in every week to London from "my house in Holland", and was doing so for the protest ,was Box Office.

    And that's without remembering First Class flying E.T.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,617

    rkrkrk said:

    stodge said:

    The Brexit party is a busted flush. Zero MPs and heading for a further flop next week in Brecon

    First, congratulations on being on the winning side in terms of choosing Jo. I voted for Ed - I thought he was better at the London Hustings. I think the piece in last Wednesday's Standard was extremely insightful and perhaps a good commentary on why Jo was the better choice. Sometimes you have to look at the bigger picture.

    Big opportunity for Jo & Lib Dems. But all the Lib Dems I know are absolutely scarred from the coalition and yet that seems to be the best way of getting their policies into government.

    My personal view is that the Lib Dems made some pretty colossal political errors in the last coalition. If they avoid things like tripling tuition fees, then there's no reason why they can't prosper electorally from a successful coalition government.
    Well, of course, there are further disastrous LibDem coalitions to consider.

    After the elections in 1999 and 2003, they were in power with SLAB in Scotland.

    They were & are in power with Llafur in Wales. (Labour have cunningly dumped Dim Kirsty with Education, one of the most disastrous & poorly performing portfolios).

    All these coalitions led to lost seats and votes.

    The truth is the LibDems say one thing to left-leaning voters and another thing to right-leaning voters. That is why LibDem Coalitions lead on to disappointment.
    The concept of the Liberal Democrat Party is a permanently unworkable coalition. Sure, they can get power by the other parties being so poor, but it doesn't mean they can do any better.

    For their concept to work, they need right wing/left wing to break down. Which it might have done to some extent domestically after Brexit. But then the LibDems tie themselves to the niche position of "frustrate Brexit and if that fails, rejoin".
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    IanB2 said:

    AndyJS said:

    Is Stephen Lloyd going to be readmitted as a LD MP at some point?

    He's more the MP for Eastbourne than a Lib Dem. After the referendum he promised to support the pro-Brexit views of his constituents. I think his actions will be determined by how they play out for his personal vote. I don't know if or how opinion is moving there, but he will.
    He does however also need the local party organisation and its deliverers and canvassers
    I know so much about him precisely because my sister is one of his deliverers and canvassers. She isn't a Lib Dem member. In fact I don't think she even votes apart from for Stephen Lloyd. You can get quite a team together with diligent attendance at local events and plenty of Facebooking.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,238
    MattW said:

    IanB2 said:
    Will this lot be less pillock-ridden than Extinction Rebellion?


    The new cabinet ?
    Unlikely.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,217
    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    I do not support Boris, I did not vote for Boris, and he will have a lot of enemies

    However, today he is almost certain to become leader of the conservative party and Prime Minister and I wish him well and genuinely hope he surprises on the upside

    I am very interested in his speech which will no doubt be about unity and to this end his appointments to cabinet will demonstrate if he means what he says

    I want to see a diverse cabinet including some sensible former remainers who support Brexit but are reluctant no dealers ( Amber Rudd and Nicky Morgan spring to mind)

    You effectively voted for Boris by not voting against him.
    I could not vote for either
    You enabled Boris by not voting against him. You were not an impartial observer.
    Hunt made the calculation that by appealing to the fox hunters he could pick up some votes, as Big G is vehemently against such activity he lost his as one does when a populist appeal is attempted some votes drop off the other side.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,617
    edited July 2019
    glw said:

    If nothing else it's going to be a right hoot watching the Tories elect their own Corbyn, it's just a shame that the rest of us have to put up with him.

    The rest of us had to put up with Callaghan after Wilson resigned. Crisis - what crisis?

    The rest of us had to put up with Brown after Blair. Crisis upon crisis upon crisis.

    At least with Boris, we still have a chance of witnessing the biggest change in the holder of a public office since Prince Hal became Henry V.....
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,869

    The excellent DiamondGeezer blog on Boris as mayor:
    http://diamondgeezer.blogspot.com/2019/07/from-city-hall-to-downing-street.html

    He isn't going to be a very good PM, is he?

    I had forgotten he said the cable car would carry two million passengers a year. Some days it gets not much more than two.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    edited July 2019

    The excellent DiamondGeezer blog on Boris as mayor:
    http://diamondgeezer.blogspot.com/2019/07/from-city-hall-to-downing-street.html

    He isn't going to be a very good PM, is he?

    This depends on how long he remains as PM. "Nothing in his Premiership became him like the leaving it." Perhaps. If it's mercifully brief then, on that basis alone, it could be far superior to the Limpet May experience.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,217

    IanB2 said:

    AndyJS said:

    Is Stephen Lloyd going to be readmitted as a LD MP at some point?

    He's more the MP for Eastbourne than a Lib Dem. After the referendum he promised to support the pro-Brexit views of his constituents. I think his actions will be determined by how they play out for his personal vote. I don't know if or how opinion is moving there, but he will.
    He does however also need the local party organisation and its deliverers and canvassers
    I know so much about him precisely because my sister is one of his deliverers and canvassers. She isn't a Lib Dem member. In fact I don't think she even votes apart from for Stephen Lloyd. You can get quite a team together with diligent attendance at local events and plenty of Facebooking.
    I'd definitely do delivery for Stephen Lloyd, one of parliaments best eggs.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    Pulpstar said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    I do not support Boris, I did not vote for Boris, and he will have a lot of enemies

    However, today he is almost certain to become leader of the conservative party and Prime Minister and I wish him well and genuinely hope he surprises on the upside

    I am very interested in his speech which will no doubt be about unity and to this end his appointments to cabinet will demonstrate if he means what he says

    I want to see a diverse cabinet including some sensible former remainers who support Brexit but are reluctant no dealers ( Amber Rudd and Nicky Morgan spring to mind)

    You effectively voted for Boris by not voting against him.
    I could not vote for either
    You enabled Boris by not voting against him. You were not an impartial observer.
    Hunt made the calculation that by appealing to the fox hunters he could pick up some votes, as Big G is vehemently against such activity he lost his as one does when a populist appeal is attempted some votes drop off the other side.
    To be fair, he probably wants to keep his seat as well. Fox hunting has a lot of loyal followers in that part of Surrey. (Bad news for Nick Palmer if he fancies his chances taking him on in the GE.)
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,806
    Mr. Mark, comparing Boris to Henry V is a very strange thing to do. Could you clarify why you make such a comparison?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    edited July 2019
    Pulpstar said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    I do not support Boris, I did not vote for Boris, and he will have a lot of enemies

    However, today he is almost certain to become leader of the conservative party and Prime Minister and I wish him well and genuinely hope he surprises on the upside

    I am very interested in his speech which will no doubt be about unity and to this end his appointments to cabinet will demonstrate if he means what he says

    I want to see a diverse cabinet including some sensible former remainers who support Brexit but are reluctant no dealers ( Amber Rudd and Nicky Morgan spring to mind)

    You effectively voted for Boris by not voting against him.
    I could not vote for either
    You enabled Boris by not voting against him. You were not an impartial observer.
    Hunt made the calculation that by appealing to the fox hunters he could pick up some votes, as Big G is vehemently against such activity he lost his as one does when a populist appeal is attempted some votes drop off the other side.
    Incorrect. Hunt was asked a question about free votes and hunting and, because his thing was to answer all questions rather than avoid them like B*r*s, he said that if the numbers were there he would enable a free vote, and if there were a free vote he would vote for repeal but he also said the numbers were not there and wouldn't likely be there ever for a free vote and hence it was all moot.

    Or were you and Big G thinking that Boris is a super-anti out every Saturday with his balaclava and spray?
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    edited July 2019

    glw said:

    If nothing else it's going to be a right hoot watching the Tories elect their own Corbyn, it's just a shame that the rest of us have to put up with him.

    The rest of us had to put up with Callagahn after Wilson resigned. Crisis - what crisis?

    The rest of us had to put up with Brown after Blair. Crisis upon crisis upon crisis.

    At least with Boris, we still have a chance of witnessing the biggest change in the holder of a public office since Prince Hal became Henry V.....
    Both Wales (Drakeford) and Scotland (Sturgeon) currently have had FMs who were elected by their parties and not directly by the voters.

    Edit have --> have had
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,005

    The excellent DiamondGeezer blog on Boris as mayor:
    http://diamondgeezer.blogspot.com/2019/07/from-city-hall-to-downing-street.html

    He isn't going to be a very good PM, is he?

    I see you're an optimist.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,869

    Pulpstar said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    I do not support Boris, I did not vote for Boris, and he will have a lot of enemies

    However, today he is almost certain to become leader of the conservative party and Prime Minister and I wish him well and genuinely hope he surprises on the upside

    I am very interested in his speech which will no doubt be about unity and to this end his appointments to cabinet will demonstrate if he means what he says

    I want to see a diverse cabinet including some sensible former remainers who support Brexit but are reluctant no dealers ( Amber Rudd and Nicky Morgan spring to mind)

    You effectively voted for Boris by not voting against him.
    I could not vote for either
    You enabled Boris by not voting against him. You were not an impartial observer.
    Hunt made the calculation that by appealing to the fox hunters he could pick up some votes, as Big G is vehemently against such activity he lost his as one does when a populist appeal is attempted some votes drop off the other side.
    To be fair, he probably wants to keep his seat as well. Fox hunting has a lot of loyal followers in that part of Surrey. (Bad news for Nick Palmer if he fancies his chances taking him on in the GE.)
    Palmer is joining the LibDems?
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,291
    Pulpstar said:

    IanB2 said:

    AndyJS said:

    Is Stephen Lloyd going to be readmitted as a LD MP at some point?

    He's more the MP for Eastbourne than a Lib Dem. After the referendum he promised to support the pro-Brexit views of his constituents. I think his actions will be determined by how they play out for his personal vote. I don't know if or how opinion is moving there, but he will.
    He does however also need the local party organisation and its deliverers and canvassers
    I know so much about him precisely because my sister is one of his deliverers and canvassers. She isn't a Lib Dem member. In fact I don't think she even votes apart from for Stephen Lloyd. You can get quite a team together with diligent attendance at local events and plenty of Facebooking.
    I'd definitely do delivery for Stephen Lloyd, one of parliaments best eggs.
    He used to be a (fairly) regular poster here.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,217
    TOPPING said:

    Pulpstar said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    I do not support Boris, I did not vote for Boris, and he will have a lot of enemies

    However, today he is almost certain to become leader of the conservative party and Prime Minister and I wish him well and genuinely hope he surprises on the upside

    I am very interested in his speech which will no doubt be about unity and to this end his appointments to cabinet will demonstrate if he means what he says

    I want to see a diverse cabinet including some sensible former remainers who support Brexit but are reluctant no dealers ( Amber Rudd and Nicky Morgan spring to mind)

    You effectively voted for Boris by not voting against him.
    I could not vote for either
    You enabled Boris by not voting against him. You were not an impartial observer.
    Hunt made the calculation that by appealing to the fox hunters he could pick up some votes, as Big G is vehemently against such activity he lost his as one does when a populist appeal is attempted some votes drop off the other side.
    Incorrect. Hunt was asked a question about free votes and hunting and, because his thing was to answer all questions rather than avoid them like B*r*s, he said that if the numbers were there he would enable a free vote, and if there were a free vote he would vote for repeal but he also said the numbers were not there and wouldn't likely be there ever for a free vote and hence it was all moot.

    Or were you and Big G thinking that Boris is a super-anti out every Saturday with his balaclava and spray?
    Boris certainly doesn't ride with any hunts !

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fv0HJm5UbPw
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,900

    Mr. Stodge, if Boris wins today the Lib Dems ought to try and work out a strategy to become one of the big two, not simply contenting themselves as third-placed kingmakers.

    They may never again have a strategic situation so much in their favour.

    The big difference between now and for example 1981-82 is the Conservatives face a big threat on their flank. Oddly enough the best thing for the LDs would be a strong TBP result in Brecon & Radnor as it would keep the pressure on Johnson.

    The LDs are actually in a symbiotic relationship with Farage - as he prospers against the Conservatives, so we prosper against Labour and if the Con-Lab vote share goes below 50%, both TBP and the LDs start making big inroads into Conservative and Labour seats.

    Jo Swinson has to aim high and reach out beyond the core LD vote and try to draw in as many Remain supporters and those ex-Leave supporters disillusioned by what has happened and those Leave supporters hostile to a No Deal leaving the pro-No Deal grouping to TBP. In that way, both the Conservative and Labour parties are left stranded.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,133
    TOPPING said:

    Pulpstar said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    I do not support Boris, I did not vote for Boris, and he will have a lot of enemies

    However, today he is almost certain to become leader of the conservative party and Prime Minister and I wish him well and genuinely hope he surprises on the upside

    I am very interested in his speech which will no doubt be about unity and to this end his appointments to cabinet will demonstrate if he means what he says

    I want to see a diverse cabinet including some sensible former remainers who support Brexit but are reluctant no dealers ( Amber Rudd and Nicky Morgan spring to mind)

    You effectively voted for Boris by not voting against him.
    I could not vote for either
    You enabled Boris by not voting against him. You were not an impartial observer.
    Hunt made the calculation that by appealing to the fox hunters he could pick up some votes, as Big G is vehemently against such activity he lost his as one does when a populist appeal is attempted some votes drop off the other side.
    Incorrect. Hunt was asked a question about free votes and hunting and, because his thing was to answer all questions rather than avoid them like B*r*s, he said that if the numbers were there he would enable a free vote, and if there were a free vote he would vote for repeal but he also said the numbers were not there and wouldn't likely be there ever for a free vote and hence it was all moot.

    Or were you and Big G thinking that Boris is a super-anti out every Saturday with his balaclava and spray?
    Not only myself but every member of my family to my youngest grandchild rejects fox hunting. Hunt's mistake and misjudgment was to even engage when he should have said the subject is closed and there are far more important issues

  • glwglw Posts: 9,912
    IanB2 said:

    The excellent DiamondGeezer blog on Boris as mayor:
    http://diamondgeezer.blogspot.com/2019/07/from-city-hall-to-downing-street.html

    He isn't going to be a very good PM, is he?

    I had forgotten he said the cable car would carry two million passengers a year. Some days it gets not much more than two.
    I was joking with a friend of mine the other day that he's the person who uses it.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    Pulpstar said:

    TOPPING said:

    Pulpstar said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    I do not support Boris, I did not vote for Boris, and he will have a lot of enemies

    However, today he is almost certain to become leader of the conservative party and Prime Minister and I wish him well and genuinely hope he surprises on the upside

    I am very interested in his speech which will no doubt be about unity and to this end his appointments to cabinet will demonstrate if he means what he says

    I want to see a diverse cabinet including some sensible former remainers who support Brexit but are reluctant no dealers ( Amber Rudd and Nicky Morgan spring to mind)

    You effectively voted for Boris by not voting against him.
    I could not vote for either
    You enabled Boris by not voting against him. You were not an impartial observer.
    Hunt made the calculation that by appealing to the fox hunters he could pick up some votes, as Big G is vehemently against such activity he lost his as one does when a populist appeal is attempted some votes drop off the other side.
    Incorrect. Hunt was asked a question about free votes and hunting and, because his thing was to answer all questions rather than avoid them like B*r*s, he said that if the numbers were there he would enable a free vote, and if there were a free vote he would vote for repeal but he also said the numbers were not there and wouldn't likely be there ever for a free vote and hence it was all moot.

    Or were you and Big G thinking that Boris is a super-anti out every Saturday with his balaclava and spray?
    Boris certainly doesn't ride with any hunts !

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fv0HJm5UbPw
    haha yes I saw that shocking. My (clumsy) point was that while Big G didn't like the fact that Jeremy Hunt answered a question honestly and pragmatically with a clear view of the situation, the thought that Boris is not a fan of field sports is bizarre, of course he is. Hence for Big G the two views cancelled each other out and Big G should have voted for Hunt and in not doing that he enabled Boris' likely victory.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,237
    Dura_Ace said:

    Unless the battery has sulfated in which case you're still fucked the next time you stop.

    Well indeed. And although I like to be sunny side up it could well be that the ascension of Boris Johnson to PM means that we are completely and utterly sulfated.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,815

    rkrkrk said:

    stodge said:

    The Brexit party is a busted flush. Zero MPs and heading for a further flop next week in Brecon

    First, picture.

    Big successful coalition government.
    Well, of course, there are further disastrous LibDem coalitions to consider.

    After the elections in 1999 and 2003, they were in power with SLAB in Scotland.

    They were & are in power with Llafur in Wales. (Labour have cunningly dumped Dim Kirsty with Education, one of the most disastrous & poorly performing portfolios).

    All these coalitions led to lost seats and votes.

    The truth is the LibDems say one thing to left-leaning voters and another thing to right-leaning voters. That is why LibDem Coalitions lead on to disappointment.
    The concept of the Liberal Democrat Party is a permanently unworkable coalition. Sure, they can get power by the other parties being so poor, but it doesn't mean they can do any better.

    For their concept to work, they need right wing/left wing to break down. Which it might have done to some extent domestically after Brexit. But then the LibDems tie themselves to the niche position of "frustrate Brexit and if that fails, rejoin".
    So many points to address in those last 2 posts:

    'Say one thing to left leaning voters and another to right leaning voters' - True, you focus on the issues in those groups, that doesn't mean what you say is inconsistent. Clearly there are differences between Richmond and Liverpool and the focus will be different, but you don't find that those 2 groups of LDs differ in their core views much.

    'LibDem coalitions lead on to disappointment - well obviously if you go into coalition with one party then voters from the other party that have lent you their vote aren't going to be happy - that is life.

    'It doesn't mean they can do any better' - True, I hope they would, and it would be nice to give them a go, particularly as I believe in their politics, but will they make mistakes, have scandals, become unpopular - yep.

    'Lib Dems is a permanently unworkable coalition - Nonsense. You are just looking at this from your biased perspective. LDs have different views on stuff and a different focus on issues, but the underlying beliefs are the same. I would say the span of views of LDs are much narrower than that of both Lab and Con by some margin, both of which are immensely broad and to be honest in both cases seem completely incompatible from one end to the other (ERG v Ken Clarke, Social Democrats v Corbyn)
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,806
    Mr. Stodge, aye. The Lib Dems have got to aim big.

    That may mean altering their offering. If they try simply being what they are/have been recently, they'll still benefit enormously from the current situation but not as much as they might.

    They need to become the dominant party of the left/remain. They can't do it from the right because that'd be too big a shift *and* they're obviously pro-EU which wouldn't match up well with the right.

    Labour, therefore, are their number one adversary. And Lib Dem manoeuvring shouldn't be limited to the necessary steps of by-election tactics and General Election strategy. They should be talking to many Labour MPs and some pro-EU Conservatives about co-operation, defections and the like. Become a home for Labour MPs who can otherwise campaign for Corbyn to become PM.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,133
    TOPPING said:

    Pulpstar said:

    TOPPING said:

    Pulpstar said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    I do not support Boris, I did not vote for Boris, and he will have a lot of enemies

    However, today he is almost certain to become leader of the conservative party and Prime Minister and I wish him well and genuinely hope he surprises on the upside

    I am very interested in his speech which will no doubt be about unity and to this end his appointments to cabinet will demonstrate if he means what he says

    I want to see a diverse cabinet including some sensible former remainers who support Brexit but are reluctant no dealers ( Amber Rudd and Nicky Morgan spring to mind)

    You effectively voted for Boris by not voting against him.
    I could not vote for either
    You enabled Boris by not voting against him. You were not an impartial observer.
    Hunt made the calculation that by appealing to the fox hunters he could pick up some votes, as Big G is vehemently against such activity he lost his as one does when a populist appeal is attempted some votes drop off the other side.
    Incorrect. Hunt was asked a question about free votes and hunting and, because his thing was to answer all questions rather than avoid them like B*r*s, he said that if the numbers were there he would enable a free vote, and if there were a free vote he would vote for repeal but he also said the numbers were not there and wouldn't likely be there ever for a free vote and hence it was all moot.

    Or were you and Big G thinking that Boris is a super-anti out every Saturday with his balaclava and spray?
    Boris certainly doesn't ride with any hunts !

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fv0HJm5UbPw
    haha yes I saw that shocking. My (clumsy) point was that while Big G didn't like the fact that Jeremy Hunt answered a question honestly and pragmatically with a clear view of the situation, the thought that Boris is not a fan of field sports is bizarre, of course he is. Hence for Big G the two views cancelled each other out and Big G should have voted for Hunt and in not doing that he enabled Boris' likely victory.
    Nonsense
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362

    rkrkrk said:

    Tory MPs should be wary of going for Boris too early. They risk being blamed for his failures.

    There's a parallel perhaps with the Owen Smith attempt against Corbyn. For most labour party members, he'd just been elected and they wanted him to have a decent run at it [without continuous undermining from MPs].

    In striking too early, and with an unconvincing candidate, they may have actually entrenched Corbyn for longer.

    interesting times. assuming it is Boris. What if it isn't,...
    If it isn't, 50,000 members will resign and join the Bexit Party at the blatant electoral fraud....
    The Brexit party is a busted flush. Zero MPs and heading for a further flop next week in Brecon
    what if theyre not a party but just a big pressure group ?
    Or a small but well funded one.
    just a well funded pressure group, one trick pony.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992

    TOPPING said:

    Pulpstar said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    I do not support Boris, I did not vote for Boris, and he will have a lot of enemies

    However, today he is almost certain to become leader of the conservative party and Prime Minister and I wish him well and genuinely hope he surprises on the upside

    I am very interested in his speech which will no doubt be about unity and to this end his appointments to cabinet will demonstrate if he means what he says

    I want to see a diverse cabinet including some sensible former remainers who support Brexit but are reluctant no dealers ( Amber Rudd and Nicky Morgan spring to mind)

    You effectively voted for Boris by not voting against him.
    I could not vote for either
    You enabled Boris by not voting against him. You were not an impartial observer.
    Hunt made the calculation that by appealing to the fox hunters he could pick up some votes, as Big G is vehemently against such activity he lost his as one does when a populist appeal is attempted some votes drop off the other side.
    Incorrect. Hunt was asked a question about free votes and hunting and, because his thing was to answer all questions rather than avoid them like B*r*s, he said that if the numbers were there he would enable a free vote, and if there were a free vote he would vote for repeal but he also said the numbers were not there and wouldn't likely be there ever for a free vote and hence it was all moot.

    Or were you and Big G thinking that Boris is a super-anti out every Saturday with his balaclava and spray?
    Not only myself but every member of my family to my youngest grandchild rejects fox hunting. Hunt's mistake and misjudgment was to even engage when he should have said the subject is closed and there are far more important issues

    So you would have preferred him to do what every politician is criticised for which is to avoid questions?

    And as I said Boris is pro-hunting so all you have done is enable one keen hunting man to become PM over another. Except the one you have enabled is a complete and utter twat.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992

    TOPPING said:

    Pulpstar said:

    TOPPING said:

    Pulpstar said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    I do not support Boris, I did not vote for Boris, and he will have a lot of enemies

    However, today he is almost certain to become leader of the conservative party and Prime Minister and I wish him well and genuinely hope he surprises on the upside

    I am very interested in his speech which will no doubt be about unity and to this end his appointments to cabinet will demonstrate if he means what he says

    I want to see a diverse cabinet including some sensible former remainers who support Brexit but are reluctant no dealers ( Amber Rudd and Nicky Morgan spring to mind)

    You effectively voted for Boris by not voting against him.
    I could not vote for either
    You enabled Boris by not voting against him. You were not an impartial observer.
    Hunt made the calculation that by appealing to the fox hunters he could pick up some votes, as Big G is vehemently against such activity he lost his as one does when a populist appeal is attempted some votes drop off the other side.
    Incorrect. Hunt was asked a question about free votes and hunting and, because his thing was to answer all questions rather than avoid them like B*r*s, he said that if the numbers were there he would enable a free vote, and if there were a free vote he would vote for repeal but he also said the numbers were not there and wouldn't likely be there ever for a free vote and hence it was all moot.

    Or were you and Big G thinking that Boris is a super-anti out every Saturday with his balaclava and spray?
    Boris certainly doesn't ride with any hunts !

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fv0HJm5UbPw
    haha yes I saw that shocking. My (clumsy) point was that while Big G didn't like the fact that Jeremy Hunt answered a question honestly and pragmatically with a clear view of the situation, the thought that Boris is not a fan of field sports is bizarre, of course he is. Hence for Big G the two views cancelled each other out and Big G should have voted for Hunt and in not doing that he enabled Boris' likely victory.
    Nonsense
    You got that one wrong Big G. Totally illogical and nonsensical. But that's fine, because foxhunting is totemic for the Big G family.
  • TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,878
    edited July 2019
    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    I do not support Boris, I did not vote for Boris, and he will have a lot of enemies

    However, today he is almost certain to become leader of the conservative party and Prime Minister and I wish him well and genuinely hope he surprises on the upside

    I am very interested in his speech which will no doubt be about unity and to this end his appointments to cabinet will demonstrate if he means what he says

    I want to see a diverse cabinet including some sensible former remainers who support Brexit but are reluctant no dealers ( Amber Rudd and Nicky Morgan spring to mind)

    You effectively voted for Boris by not voting against him.
    I could not vote for either
    You enabled Boris by not voting against him. You were not an impartial observer.
    I always love it in a film where Bad Guy tells Good Guy (near the end) that the death in the early part of the film Victim is entirely the responsibility of Good Guy, because Good Guy failed to stop Bad Guy murdering Victim.

    You are responsible for your own decisions and actions. No one else. Bad Guy killed Victim. Bad Guy is responsible for murder, not the Good Guy (who may not have even been there at the time), but it always sounds better to twist it because we 'expect' Bad Guy to do the murder, whilst Good Guy failure to stop it suddenly sounds like the crime of the century.

    If you voted for Boris, and he wins then you can indeed be 'blamed' for his win.
    If you voted for Hunt, and he wins then you can be 'blamed' for his win.

    If you don't vote, neither applies.

    Put it another way. Let's say Hunt wins at lunchtime. Did Big G 'enable' Hunts win by failing to vote for Boris? Because if it applies one way, then it applies the other. Indeed, if Hunt wins, then surely everyone in the world who didn't vote for Boris (including those ineligible, like someone in Peru) must be a Hunt-enabler.

    What utter rubbish.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    "Theresa May offers academic Roger Scruton his old job back after false allegations of anti-Semitic and Islamophobic remarks"

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7274227/Theresa-offers-academic-Roger-Scruton-old-job-false-allegations.html
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,133
    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Pulpstar said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    I do not support Boris, I did not vote for Boris, and he will have a lot of enemies

    However, today he is almost certain to become leader of the conservative party and Prime Minister and I wish him well and genuinely hope he surprises on the upside

    I am very interested in his speech which will no doubt be about unity and to this end his appointments to cabinet will demonstrate if he means what he says

    I want to see a diverse cabinet including some sensible former remainers who support Brexit but are reluctant no dealers ( Amber Rudd and Nicky Morgan spring to mind)

    You effectively voted for Boris by not voting against him.
    I could not vote for either
    You enabled Boris by not voting against him. You were not an impartial observer.
    Hunt made the calculation that by appealing to the fox hunters he could pick up some votes, as Big G is vehemently against such activity he lost his as one does when a populist appeal is attempted some votes drop off the other side.
    Incorrect. Hunt was asked a question about free votes and hunting and, because his thing was to answer all questions rather than avoid them like B*r*s, he said that if the numbers were there he would enable a free vote, and if there were a free vote he would vote for repeal but he also said the numbers were not there and wouldn't likely be there ever for a free vote and hence it was all moot.

    Or were you and Big G thinking that Boris is a super-anti out every Saturday with his balaclava and spray?
    Not only myself but every member of my family to my youngest grandchild rejects fox hunting. Hunt's mistake and misjudgment was to even engage when he should have said the subject is closed and there are far more important issues

    So you would have preferred him to do what every politician is criticised for which is to avoid questions?

    And as I said Boris is pro-hunting so all you have done is enable one keen hunting man to become PM over another. Except the one you have enabled is a complete and utter twat.
    Hunt made his pro hunting views clear so no vote from either my wife or I

    It does not matter about Boris as neither my wife or I would vote for him

    And if Boris wins by two votes so be it, Hunt needed to dismiss the hunting question and say it is closed as an issue

  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362

    rkrkrk said:

    stodge said:

    The Brexit party is a busted flush. Zero MPs and heading for a further flop next week in Brecon

    First, congratulations on being on the winning side in terms of choosing Jo. I voted for Ed - I thought he was better at the London Hustings. I think the piece in last Wednesday's Standard was extremely insightful and perhaps a good commentary on why Jo was the better choice. Sometimes you have to look at the bigger picture.

    Big opportunity for Jo & Lib Dems. But all the Lib Dems I know are absolutely scarred from the coalition and yet that seems to be the best way of getting their policies into government.

    My personal view is that the Lib Dems made some pretty colossal political errors in the last coalition. If they avoid things like tripling tuition fees, then there's no reason why they can't prosper electorally from a successful coalition government.
    Well, of course, there are further disastrous LibDem coalitions to consider.

    After the elections in 1999 and 2003, they were in power with SLAB in Scotland.

    They were & are in power with Llafur in Wales. (Labour have cunningly dumped Dim Kirsty with Education, one of the most disastrous & poorly performing portfolios).

    All these coalitions led to lost seats and votes.

    The truth is the LibDems say one thing to left-leaning voters and another thing to right-leaning voters. That is why LibDem Coalitions lead on to disappointment.
    The Lib Dems are the worst of the lot, as you say they speak with forked tongue. Would sell their granny if they get chance.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    edited July 2019

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    I do not support Boris, I did not vote for Boris, and he will have a lot of enemies

    However, today he is almost certain to become leader of the conservative party and Prime Minister and I wish him well and genuinely hope he surprises on the upside

    I am very interested in his speech which will no doubt be about unity and to this end his appointments to cabinet will demonstrate if he means what he says

    I want to see a diverse cabinet including some sensible former remainers who support Brexit but are reluctant no dealers ( Amber Rudd and Nicky Morgan spring to mind)

    You effectively voted for Boris by not voting against him.
    I could not vote for either
    You enabled Boris by not voting against him. You were not an impartial observer.
    I always love it in a film where Bad Guy tells Good Guy (near the end) that the death in the early part of the film Victim is entirely the responsibility of Good Guy, because Good Guy failed to stop Bad Guy murdering Victim.

    You are responsible for your own decisions and actions. No one else. Bad Guy killed Victim. Bad Guy is responsible for murder, not the Good Guy (who may not have even been there at the time), but it always sounds better to twist it because we 'expect' Bad Guy to do the murder, whilst Good Guy failure to stop it suddenly sounds like the crime of the century.

    If you voted for Boris, and he wins then you can indeed be 'blamed' for his win.
    If you voted for Hunt, and he wins then you can be 'blamed' for his win.

    If you don't vote, neither applies.

    Put it another way. Let's say Hunt wins at lunchtime. Did Big G 'enable' Hunts win by failing to vote for Boris? Because if it applies one way, then it applies the other. Indeed, if Hunt wins, then surely everyone in the world who didn't vote for Boris (including those ineligible, like someone in Peru) must be a Hunt-enabler.

    What utter rubbish.
    I'm assuming your comment "what utter rubbish" is an immediate, scathing, yet accurate critique of your own post. And in answer to your question, yes if you abstain you enable the winner because you didn't vote against them.

    Edit: and that person in Peru didn't have a vote; Big G did.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,133
    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Pulpstar said:

    TOPPING said:

    Pulpstar said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    I do not support Boris, I did not vote for Boris, and he will have a lot of enemies

    However, today he is almost certain to become leader of the conservative party and Prime Minister and I wish him well and genuinely hope he surprises on the upside

    I am very interested in his speech which will no doubt be about unity and to this end his appointments to cabinet will demonstrate if he means what he says

    I want to see a diverse cabinet including some sensible former remainers who support Brexit but are reluctant no dealers ( Amber Rudd and Nicky Morgan spring to mind)

    You effectively voted for Boris by not voting against him.
    I could not vote for either
    You enabled Boris by not voting against him. You were not an impartial observer.
    Hunt made the calculation that by appealing to the fox hunters he could pick up some votes, as Big G is vehemently against such activity he lost his as one does when a populist appeal is attempted some votes drop off the other side.
    Incorrect. Hunt was asked a question about free votes and hunting and, because his thing was to answer all questions rather than avoid them like B*r*s, he said that if the numbers were there he would enable a free vote, and if there were a free vote he would vote for repeal but he also said the numbers were not there and wouldn't likely be there ever for a free vote and hence it was all moot.

    Or were you and Big G thinking that Boris is a super-anti out every Saturday with his balaclava and spray?
    Boris certainly doesn't ride with any hunts !

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fv0HJm5UbPw
    haha yes I saw that shocking. My (clumsy) point was that while Big G didn't like the fact that Jeremy Hunt answered a question honestly and pragmatically with a clear view of the situation, the thought that Boris is not a fan of field sports is bizarre, of course he is. Hence for Big G the two views cancelled each other out and Big G should have voted for Hunt and in not doing that he enabled Boris' likely victory.
    Nonsense
    You got that one wrong Big G. Totally illogical and nonsensical. But that's fine, because foxhunting is totemic for the Big G family.
    It is
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Pulpstar said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    I do not support Boris, I did not vote for Boris, and he will have a lot of enemies

    However, today he is almost certain to become leader of the conservative party and Prime Minister and I wish him well and genuinely hope he surprises on the upside

    I am very interested in his speech which will no doubt be about unity and to this end his appointments to cabinet will demonstrate if he means what he says

    I want to see a diverse cabinet including some sensible former remainers who support Brexit but are reluctant no dealers ( Amber Rudd and Nicky Morgan spring to mind)

    You effectively voted for Boris by not voting against him.
    I could not vote for either
    You enabled Boris by not voting against him. You were not an impartial observer.
    Hunt made the calculation that by appealing to the fox hunters he could pick up some votes, as Big G is vehemently against such activity he lost his as one does when a populist appeal is attempted some votes drop off the other side.
    Incorrect. Hunt was asked a question about free votes and hunting and, because his thing was to answer all questions rather than avoid them like B*r*s, he said that if the numbers were there he would enable a free vote, and if there were a free vote he would vote for repeal but he also said the numbers were not there and wouldn't likely be there ever for a free vote and hence it was all moot.

    Or were you and Big G thinking that Boris is a super-anti out every Saturday with his balaclava and spray?
    Not only myself but every member of my family to my youngest grandchild rejects fox hunting. Hunt's mistake and misjudgment was to even engage when he should have said the subject is closed and there are far more important issues

    So you would have preferred him to do what every politician is criticised for which is to avoid questions?

    And as I said Boris is pro-hunting so all you have done is enable one keen hunting man to become PM over another. Except the one you have enabled is a complete and utter twat.
    Hunt made his pro hunting views clear so no vote from either my wife or I

    It does not matter about Boris as neither my wife or I would vote for him

    And if Boris wins by two votes so be it, Hunt needed to dismiss the hunting question and say it is closed as an issue

    If Boris wins by two votes he will or should thank you and your wife for allowing it. You will have effectively made Boris PM. How's that for totemic?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,237
    Latest rumour is that Boris HAS won by 2 votes.

    Unbelievable.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362

    rkrkrk said:

    stodge said:

    The Brexit party is a busted flush. Zero MPs and heading for a further flop next week in Brecon

    First, congratulations on being on the winning side in terms of choosing Jo. I voted for Ed - I thought he was better at the London Hustings. I think the piece in last Wednesday's Standard was extremely insightful and perhaps a good commentary on why Jo was the better choice. Sometimes you have to look at the bigger picture.

    Big opportunity for Jo & Lib Dems. But all the Lib Dems I know are absolutely scarred from the coalition and yet that seems to be the best way of getting their policies into government.

    My personal view is that the Lib Dems made some pretty colossal political errors in the last coalition. If they avoid things like tripling tuition fees, then there's no reason why they can't prosper electorally from a successful coalition government.
    Well, of course, there are further disastrous LibDem coalitions to consider.

    After the elections in 1999 and 2003, they were in power with SLAB in Scotland.

    They were & are in power with Llafur in Wales. (Labour have cunningly dumped Dim Kirsty with Education, one of the most disastrous & poorly performing portfolios).

    All these coalitions led to lost seats and votes.

    The truth is the LibDems say one thing to left-leaning voters and another thing to right-leaning voters. That is why LibDem Coalitions lead on to disappointment.
    To be strictly fair the Scottish LDs increased their vote share at Holyrood in 2003 and 2007 so their coalition with SLab didn't seem to be particularly disastrous for them. Of course that vote share went off a cliff in 2011, I think we can guess which disastrous coalition caused that.

    It'll be interesting to see if the stain of working with the Tories has been completely washed off, or being the party of EUref II is temporarily masking it. I'm not sure if shrilly denouncing Corbyn as Swinson was doing this morning or indulging in circuitous half logic as to why the nasty Nats should never be allowed a second referendum while a second EU ref is inevitable are quite the right notes to start on. Apart from anything else she'll need cooperation from both these parties to get her precious.

    So stupid she cannot even see how bad her differing positions are, we will see how she gets on pointing indifferent directions at the same time. I am certain she is just a smug hypocrite and will do badly.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,627
    Good. He should never have been fired in the first place without a basic checking of the facts.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,815
    malcolmg said:

    rkrkrk said:

    stodge said:

    The Brexit party is a busted flush. Zero MPs and heading for a further flop next week in Brecon

    First, congratulations on being on the winning side in terms of choosing Jo. I voted for Ed - I thought he was better at the London Hustings. I think the piece in last Wednesday's Standard was extremely insightful and perhaps a good commentary on why Jo was the better choice. Sometimes you have to look at the bigger picture.

    Big opportunity for Jo & Lib Dems. But all the Lib Dems I know are absolutely scarred from the coalition and yet that seems to be the best way of getting their policies into government.

    My personal view is that the Lib Dems made some pretty colossal political errors in the last coalition. If they avoid things like tripling tuition fees, then there's no reason why they can't prosper electorally from a successful coalition government.
    Well, of course, there are further disastrous LibDem coalitions to consider.

    After the elections in 1999 and 2003, they were in power with SLAB in Scotland.

    They were & are in power with Llafur in Wales. (Labour have cunningly dumped Dim Kirsty with Education, one of the most disastrous & poorly performing portfolios).

    All these coalitions led to lost seats and votes.

    The truth is the LibDems say one thing to left-leaning voters and another thing to right-leaning voters. That is why LibDem Coalitions lead on to disappointment.
    The Lib Dems are the worst of the lot, as you say they speak with forked tongue. Would sell their granny if they get chance.
    What have we done to you Malc?
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362

    glw said:

    If nothing else it's going to be a right hoot watching the Tories elect their own Corbyn, it's just a shame that the rest of us have to put up with him.

    The rest of us had to put up with Callagahn after Wilson resigned. Crisis - what crisis?

    The rest of us had to put up with Brown after Blair. Crisis upon crisis upon crisis.

    At least with Boris, we still have a chance of witnessing the biggest change in the holder of a public office since Prince Hal became Henry V.....
    Both Wales (Drakeford) and Scotland (Sturgeon) currently have had FMs who were elected by their parties and not directly by the voters.

    Edit have --> have had
    Think you will find Sturgeon was elected by the Scottish Parliament. The system up here is not as easy on them and they need to be voted in by majority of parliament
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,237
    malcolmg said:

    just a well funded pressure group, one trick pony.

    I prefer the description that you have patented - donkey shaped balloons.

    Pretending they care about the plebs when the real agenda is something else entirely.

    This is the worst type of politics IMO. Prefer just about anything to that.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,005
    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Pulpstar said:

    TOPPING said:

    Pulpstar said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    I do not support Boris, I did not vote for Boris, and he will have a lot of enemies

    However, today he is almost certain to become leader of the conservative party and Prime Minister and I wish him well and genuinely hope he surprises on the upside

    I am very interested in his speech which will no doubt be about unity and to this end his appointments to cabinet will demonstrate if he means what he says

    I want to see a diverse cabinet including some sensible former remainers who support Brexit but are reluctant no dealers ( Amber Rudd and Nicky Morgan spring to mind)

    You effectively voted for Boris by not voting against him.
    I could not vote for either
    You enabled Boris by not voting against him. You were not an impartial observer.
    Hunt made the calculation that by appealing to the fox hunters he could pick up some votes, as Big G is vehemently against such activity he lost his as one does when a populist appeal is attempted some votes drop off the other side.
    Incorrect. Hunt was asked a question about free votes and hunting and, because his thing was to answer all questions rather than avoid them like B*r*s, he said that if the numbers were there he would enable a free vote, and if there were a free vote he would vote for repeal but he also said the numbers were not there and wouldn't likely be there ever for a free vote and hence it was all moot.

    Or were you and Big G thinking that Boris is a super-anti out every Saturday with his balaclava and spray?
    Boris certainly doesn't ride with any hunts !

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fv0HJm5UbPw
    haha yes I saw that shocking. My (clumsy) point was that while Big G didn't like the fact that Jeremy Hunt answered a question honestly and pragmatically with a clear view of the situation, the thought that Boris is not a fan of field sports is bizarre, of course he is. Hence for Big G the two views cancelled each other out and Big G should have voted for Hunt and in not doing that he enabled Boris' likely victory.
    Nonsense
    You got that one wrong Big G. Totally illogical and nonsensical. But that's fine, because foxhunting is totemic for the Big G family.
    Fox hunting seems pretty totemic for you, in that any criticism of it sets you off. Is there a right and wrong kind of totemic?
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,751
    From the BBC:
    "At 11:47 BST, Dame Cheryl Gillan, from the backbench Conservative 1922 Committee, will announce the results of the leadership contest
    At 11:50am, the winner of the contest will make a speech.
    At 11.51am, the government will lose its majority in the House of Commons."

    OK I made up the last bit ...
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,773
    malcolmg said:

    glw said:

    If nothing else it's going to be a right hoot watching the Tories elect their own Corbyn, it's just a shame that the rest of us have to put up with him.

    The rest of us had to put up with Callagahn after Wilson resigned. Crisis - what crisis?

    The rest of us had to put up with Brown after Blair. Crisis upon crisis upon crisis.

    At least with Boris, we still have a chance of witnessing the biggest change in the holder of a public office since Prince Hal became Henry V.....
    Both Wales (Drakeford) and Scotland (Sturgeon) currently have had FMs who were elected by their parties and not directly by the voters.

    Edit have --> have had
    Think you will find Sturgeon was elected by the Scottish Parliament. The system up here is not as easy on them and they need to be voted in by majority of parliament
    So does Boris,....
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,217
    Sandpit said:

    Good. He should never have been fired in the first place without a basic checking of the facts.
    https://twitter.com/Pulpstar/status/1153606201260818434
  • Blue_rogBlue_rog Posts: 2,019
    With all this talk about fox hunting, did anyone see that cookery programme at the w/e with Michel Roux jnr's chef on Cook in the Wild?

    She was in France (wonderful core member of the EU) and took part in a wild boar hunt, complete with dogs running down a boar until it collapsed with exhaustion, then being dispatched by a hunter with a knife!

    Puts hunting vermin that kill farm animals into perspective. I don't agree with all the historic flannel that goes with it, especially blooding, but at least the fox is dead by that time.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176
  • I think the SNP's strategy will depend on the timing of the next UK general election. Holyrood is up in 2021 and I don't think it would be helpful for the SNP to be in government down south as they would no longer be able to blame Westminster for everything.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992

    Fox hunting seems pretty totemic for you, in that any criticism of it sets you off. Is there a right and wrong kind of totemic?

    Not at all. Just that I am ruthlessly forensic in this regard and I dislike/am irritated by lack of logic. Big G didn't like the fact that Hunt "supports foxhunting". He may or may not, just as Boris may or may not. But he was asked a question and felt he needed to answer it honestly. Which was that if there were the numbers and if there was a free vote then he would vote for repeal. He then said that such a scenario was unlikely.

    It seem that answering and not avoiding the question was his big crime. And to want to repeal the ban doesn't necessarily betoken an enthusiasm for hunting, but an enthusiasm for fairness.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,217
    Could he make a last minute splash as both Boris and Corbyn fail to command a majority ?

    David Miliband
    £4,045.18
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,084
    malcolmg said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Tory MPs should be wary of going for Boris too early. They risk being blamed for his failures.

    There's a parallel perhaps with the Owen Smith attempt against Corbyn. For most labour party members, he'd just been elected and they wanted him to have a decent run at it [without continuous undermining from MPs].

    In striking too early, and with an unconvincing candidate, they may have actually entrenched Corbyn for longer.

    interesting times. assuming it is Boris. What if it isn't,...
    If it isn't, 50,000 members will resign and join the Bexit Party at the blatant electoral fraud....
    The Brexit party is a busted flush. Zero MPs and heading for a further flop next week in Brecon
    what if theyre not a party but just a big pressure group ?
    Or a small but well funded one.
    just a well funded pressure group, one trick pony.
    No , that's the SNP, who are prepared to do anything to break up the UK.
  • StreeterStreeter Posts: 684
    I saw him speak about the work of the commission. He knows fuck all about the subject.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,005
    edited July 2019

    I think the SNP's strategy will depend on the timing of the next UK general election. Holyrood is up in 2021 and I don't think it would be helpful for the SNP to be in government down south as they would no longer be able to blame Westminster for everything.
    deleted, misunderstood your point
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,491
    kinabalu said:

    Latest rumour is that Boris HAS won by 2 votes.

    Unbelievable.

    Source?

    Sounds like ramping to me.
  • OnboardG1OnboardG1 Posts: 1,589

    I think the SNP's strategy will depend on the timing of the next UK general election. Holyrood is up in 2021 and I don't think it would be helpful for the SNP to be in government down south as they would no longer be able to blame Westminster for everything.
    If you're the SNP I'd think you might trigger a snap Holyrood election if there's a snap UK GE in the autumn (particularly if Johnson tries to blow up the country). Running on a full throated indy platform in the aftermath of a Johnson catastrophe would be a good way of securing a majority in Holyrood and blowing the Scottish Labour and Tories to pieces in the Westminster elections.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,914
    Joe Swinson was impressive. Probably helped by her proximity to the Hartley Brewer molester who immediately followed her. If Johnson thinks having spokesmen in his image is a good idea he's making a big mistake. The number of 'yuks' among my small circle was petrifying. Joe meanwhile made the clever decision to aim her fire at Corbyn. It's all about Brexit and until this interview I didn't know Corbyn spent two weeks of the Referendum campaign on holiday!

  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    edited July 2019
    GIN1138 said:

    Has Nabavi sent his resignation letter in yet?

    It's written and ready to go once we have the formal announcement. For logistical reasons it will be sent tomorrow.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    tlg86 said:
    Really?
  • surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,469
    Oh dear ! HYUFD will not like this one bit.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    Streeter said:

    I saw him speak about the work of the commission. He knows fuck all about the subject.
    He'll fit right in with this government then.
  • TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,878
    TOPPING said:

    I'm assuming your comment "what utter rubbish" is an immediate, scathing, yet accurate critique of your own post.

    No, you have misunderstood.

    But I suspect you haven't really. A vote for Johnson is a vote for Johnson. A vote for Hunt is a vote for Hunt. Wanting to read more into something is wrong, but people do persist in this.

    Lets put it another way. In 2015, the Conservatives won the General Election, but many millions DID NOT VOTE (but could have). Did they enable the Conservative win in 2015?
    In 2005, the Labour party won. Many millions did not vote (but could have). Did they enable the Labour win in 2005?

    You are basically saying someone who doesn't vote is actually a supporter of the winner, when I suspect if you asked them you would find they are not.

    I stand by my original post, defending Big G's decision. That you choose to interpret a failure/unwillingness to vote as a vote for something is your fault.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,005
    edited July 2019

    kinabalu said:

    Latest rumour is that Boris HAS won by 2 votes.

    Unbelievable.

    Source?

    Sounds like ramping to me.
    I think it was a joke aimed at Topping's 'J'accuse' of big G.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    Pulpstar said:

    Could he make a last minute splash as both Boris and Corbyn fail to command a majority ?

    David Miliband
    £4,045.18

    :lol:

    They say it's the hope that kills you.

    However, to be serious for a moment, Miliband is probably on 3 month notice at least from his top job.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,900
    kjh said:

    malcolmg said:



    The Lib Dems are the worst of the lot, as you say they speak with forked tongue. Would sell their granny if they get chance.

    What have we done to you Malc?
    I think we tried to sell his grandmother. He's really not a fan.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,217

    Pulpstar said:

    Could he make a last minute splash as both Boris and Corbyn fail to command a majority ?

    David Miliband
    £4,045.18

    :lol:

    They say it's the hope that kills you.

    However, to be serious for a moment, Miliband is probably on 3 month notice at least from his top job.
    Accidentally left a fiver up there before the Tory leadership contest was announced at 800-1 I think :p
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    Will BF settle immediately at 11.47 when Hunt is announced winner, or are there some technicalities?
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,005
    Cicero said:

    malcolmg said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Tory MPs should be wary of going for Boris too early. They risk being blamed for his failures.

    There's a parallel perhaps with the Owen Smith attempt against Corbyn. For most labour party members, he'd just been elected and they wanted him to have a decent run at it [without continuous undermining from MPs].

    In striking too early, and with an unconvincing candidate, they may have actually entrenched Corbyn for longer.

    interesting times. assuming it is Boris. What if it isn't,...
    If it isn't, 50,000 members will resign and join the Bexit Party at the blatant electoral fraud....
    The Brexit party is a busted flush. Zero MPs and heading for a further flop next week in Brecon
    what if theyre not a party but just a big pressure group ?
    Or a small but well funded one.
    just a well funded pressure group, one trick pony.
    No , that's the SNP, who are prepared to do anything to break up the UK.
    Yeah, apart from opposing Brexit and offering full blooded support (incorrectly imo) to the EU ref II brigade.

    The LD efforts to build bridges and consensus off to its usual good start.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,217
    The true price for Hunt should probably be ~200-1 or something I think.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,005
    A minor note in the Borisian cacophony, but an interesting one.

    https://twitter.com/ChrisMusson/status/1153609458590896128
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992

    TOPPING said:

    I'm assuming your comment "what utter rubbish" is an immediate, scathing, yet accurate critique of your own post.

    No, you have misunderstood.

    But I suspect you haven't really. A vote for Johnson is a vote for Johnson. A vote for Hunt is a vote for Hunt. Wanting to read more into something is wrong, but people do persist in this.

    Lets put it another way. In 2015, the Conservatives won the General Election, but many millions DID NOT VOTE (but could have). Did they enable the Conservative win in 2015?
    In 2005, the Labour party won. Many millions did not vote (but could have). Did they enable the Labour win in 2005?

    You are basically saying someone who doesn't vote is actually a supporter of the winner, when I suspect if you asked them you would find they are not.

    I stand by my original post, defending Big G's decision. That you choose to interpret a failure/unwillingness to vote as a vote for something is your fault.
    In those examples you give I would contest that by not voting against something you are enabling it. Those many millions not voting in 2015 did indeed enable the Conservatives because they had a vote and were able to influence the outcome and didn't use it. Their abstention meant that votes cast for the Conservatives were not nullifed.

    Big G (or let's call that person X to avoid personalisation) had a vote in the Conservative leadership contest.

    He could do one of three things - Hunt, Johnson, don't vote/spoil. it was a closed system in that one of them had to win. They couldn't both lose which is the way X described his feelings. If he DNV then he left the decision up to the rest of the members but yes, by not voting he also enabled the winner by not voting against them. It is why then and now I was so irritated at someone not using their vote as it has/had an effect.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,217
    I'll go Boris 72%, the much hyped "Hunt switchers" probably taking it down from a previous 74% victory or so.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    AndyJS said:

    tlg86 said:
    Really?
    Well he should be ashamed of his part in the VIP abuse nonsense, especially what he disgracefully said about Leon Brittan and then fanning it all inside the HoC and the Sunday People.

    How Watson hasn't a) apologised profusely and b) resigned is beyond me but then accountability seems to have gone out the window. All the plods involved have either retired with their pensions intact or headed off to better things e.g. Steve Rodhouse as DG of the National Crime Agency.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,238
    Fun interview on R5 with Neil Sherlock, who beat Johnson in the Oxford Union election for president.

    A decent guy.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,217
    Any win for Boris below 60% would be a big polling failure..
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,914
    Nigelb said:

    Fun interview on R5 with Neil Sherlock, who beat Johnson in the Oxford Union election for president.

    A decent guy.

    In that case it should have been a walk-over
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,627

    Will BF settle immediately at 11.47 when Hunt is announced winner, or are there some technicalities?

    Last time out they settled the next leader market on the official written announcement by the party, but settled the next PM market when Mrs May met the Queen, which was a couple of days later. Guess it will be the same this time.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362
    kjh said:

    malcolmg said:

    rkrkrk said:

    stodge said:

    The Brexit party is a busted flush. Zero MPs and heading for a further flop next week in Brecon

    First, congratulations on being on the winning side in terms of choosing Jo. I voted for Ed - I thought he was better at the London Hustings. I think the piece in last Wednesday's Standard was extremely insightful and perhaps a good commentary on why Jo was the better choice. Sometimes you have to look at the bigger picture.

    Big opportunity for Jo & Lib Dems. But all the Lib Dems I know are absolutely scarred from the coalition and yet that seems to be the best way of getting their policies into government.

    My personal view is that the Lib Dems made some pretty colossal political errors in the last coalition. If they avoid things like tripling tuition fees, then there's no reason why they can't prosper electorally from a successful coalition government.
    Well, of course, there are further disastrous LibDem coalitions to consider.

    After the elections in 1999 and 2003, they were in power with SLAB in Scotland.

    They were & are in power with Llafur in Wales. (Labour have cunningly dumped Dim Kirsty with Education, one of the most disastrous & poorly performing portfolios).

    All these coalitions led to lost seats and votes.

    The truth is the LibDems say one thing to left-leaning voters and another thing to right-leaning voters. That is why LibDem Coalitions lead on to disappointment.
    The Lib Dems are the worst of the lot, as you say they speak with forked tongue. Would sell their granny if they get chance.
    What have we done to you Malc?
    Inflicted Willie Rennie on us in Scotland and now this useless numpty down south to compound things, pure evil.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,217
    Here's the biggest polling failure I can recall - Michigan 2016 Democratic primary :

    https://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-michigan-presidential-democratic-primary

    57.5/39.1 = Clinton 59/ Sanders 40

    Result Sanders 49.68% Clinton 48.26%

    So the same level of failure today would produce Johnson 62 - Hunt 38 or so.
This discussion has been closed.