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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Get ready for Boris’s big day to see CON resignations and the

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  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    https://twitter.com/keiranpedley/status/1153349302917509121?s=21

    Interesting - the two least popular were ousted by their own party - two of the three least unpopular (Major/Brown) ousted by the electorate - Blair had similar rating to the two election losers and Cameron had just lost BREXIT.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,238
    Roger said:

    Nigelb said:

    Fun interview on R5 with Neil Sherlock, who beat Johnson in the Oxford Union election for president.

    A decent guy.

    In that case it should have been a walk-over
    "He had his girlfriend invite me round for a very nice tea to ask me not to run..."
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163

    Pulpstar said:

    Could he make a last minute splash as both Boris and Corbyn fail to command a majority ?

    David Miliband
    £4,045.18

    :lol:

    They say it's the hope that kills you.
    It should have been named "Pandora's Pox" ;)

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,217
    tlg86 said:
    Recently the Brexiteers (Vs the SNP), Oakeshott vs the Guardian, Grimes vs Electoral commission have been winning all the court cases/settlements/apologies.

    Haven't seen the detail of this one though so can't comment.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362

    A minor note in the Borisian cacophony, but an interesting one.

    https://twitter.com/ChrisMusson/status/1153609458590896128

    he will sign up you can be certain, principle free charlatan
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,617
    If they had bought it three years ago, she could have used it to beat the EU into a deal that passed.....
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    edited July 2019
    Looking on the bright side, it's been a great betting event. As at the 17th June I was all green on Boris, Hunt, Javid, Raab and Gove, with Rory my only loser amongst those not yet eliminated. Now I'm pretty evenly green whichever of the two wins (and even better off if neither of them becomes next PM).

    Contrary to what people were saying on the last thread, laying the favourites was the right strategy, but you needed to do it early enough and take advantage of cases where the odds shortened excessively for particular candidates, going in again to back candidates at better odds. Also there were some wonderful discrepancies early on further down the field - Javid at around 80/1 for example, which gave a nice pot to lay off later.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176
    Pulpstar said:

    tlg86 said:
    Recently the Brexiteers (Vs the SNP), Oakeshott vs the Guardian, Grimes vs Electoral commission have been winning all the court cases/settlements/apologies.

    Haven't seen the detail of this one though so can't comment.
    Guido has it. Basically Femi linked Tice to something said by Leave.EU two years after Tice left that organisation.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,217
    A big tell before the result is announced will be Nigel Evans grinning like a cheshire cat.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362
    edited July 2019

    Cicero said:

    malcolmg said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Tory MPs should be wary of going for Boris too early. They risk being blamed for his failures.

    There's a parallel perhaps with the Owen Smith attempt against Corbyn. For most labour party members, he'd just been elected and they wanted him to have a decent run at it [without continuous undermining from MPs].

    In striking too early, and with an unconvincing candidate, they may have actually entrenched Corbyn for longer.

    interesting times. assuming it is Boris. What if it isn't,...
    If it isn't, 50,000 members will resign and join the Bexit Party at the blatant electoral fraud....
    The Brexit party is a busted flush. Zero MPs and heading for a further flop next week in Brecon
    what if theyre not a party but just a big pressure group ?
    Or a small but well funded one.
    just a well funded pressure group, one trick pony.
    No , that's the SNP, who are prepared to do anything to break up the UK.
    Yeah, apart from opposing Brexit and offering full blooded support (incorrectly imo) to the EU ref II brigade.

    The LD efforts to build bridges and consensus off to its usual good start.
    Swinson will have had her napper measured for her crown by now
    When she talked about being PM yesterday it was just a memory lapse as she had forgotten the T at the end
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,133
    Pulpstar said:

    A big tell before the result is announced will be Nigel Evans grinning like a cheshire cat.

    He was a few minutes ago on Sky
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,617
    tlg86 said:
    Anybody who gets outraged at being sued "for a tweet" really needed some advice on libel before being in the public eye.....
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772

    Looking on the bright side, it's been a great betting event. As at the 17th June I was all green on Boris, Hunt, Javid, Raab and Gove, with Rory my only loser amongst those not yet eliminated. Now I'm pretty evenly green whichever of the two wins (and even better off if neither of them becomes next PM).

    Contrary to what people were saying on the last thread, laying the favourites was the right strategy, but you needed to do it early enough and take advantage of cases where the odds shortened excessively for particular candidates, going in again to back candidates at better odds. Also there were some wonderful discrepancies early on further down the field - Javid at around 80/1 for example, which gave a nice pot to lay off later.

    It has certainly been an interesting one, with so many candidates popping up one after another.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    Anne Milton resigns.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,617
    Means each MP chipped in less than a fiver....
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362
    stodge said:

    kjh said:

    malcolmg said:



    The Lib Dems are the worst of the lot, as you say they speak with forked tongue. Would sell their granny if they get chance.

    What have we done to you Malc?
    I think we tried to sell his grandmother. He's really not a fan.

    :p
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    As I predicted when the wheeze to prevent proroguing worked. There's no need to trigger a crisis now, sane Tory MPs now have a less nuclear option.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    Jeremy Hunt just shortened 10pts on bf (42 => 32) fwiw.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362
    Roger said:

    Joe Swinson was impressive. Probably helped by her proximity to the Hartley Brewer molester who immediately followed her. If Johnson thinks having spokesmen in his image is a good idea he's making a big mistake. The number of 'yuks' among my small circle was petrifying. Joe meanwhile made the clever decision to aim her fire at Corbyn. It's all about Brexit and until this interview I didn't know Corbyn spent two weeks of the Referendum campaign on holiday!

    Not when you compare to Ashdowne or Kennedy, not even 2nd rate against previous real leaders.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,914

    A minor note in the Borisian cacophony, but an interesting one.

    https://twitter.com/ChrisMusson/status/1153609458590896128

    Are you kidding....I've never seen so many scampering rats trying to clamber aboard a sinking ship since ......well......Damian Green and Michael Fallon were seen with Boris posters begging for airtime outside the radio 4 studio yesterday afternoon.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    edited July 2019
    malcolmg said:

    Roger said:

    Joe Swinson was impressive. Probably helped by her proximity to the Hartley Brewer molester who immediately followed her. If Johnson thinks having spokesmen in his image is a good idea he's making a big mistake. The number of 'yuks' among my small circle was petrifying. Joe meanwhile made the clever decision to aim her fire at Corbyn. It's all about Brexit and until this interview I didn't know Corbyn spent two weeks of the Referendum campaign on holiday!

    Not when you compare to Ashdowne or Kennedy, not even 2nd rate against previous real leaders.
    I think that's sexism. Pure and simple. Both those mentioned had foibles. CK, especially, was an alcoholic which isn't great (Churchill being a wartime exception).

    Wait and see.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,133

    Means each MP chipped in less than a fiver....
    It was only the cabinet
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,627
    tlg86 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    tlg86 said:
    Recently the Brexiteers (Vs the SNP), Oakeshott vs the Guardian, Grimes vs Electoral commission have been winning all the court cases/settlements/apologies.

    Haven't seen the detail of this one though so can't comment.
    Guido has it. Basically Femi linked Tice to something said by Leave.EU two years after Tice left that organisation.
    And was given an opportunity to withdraw the comments, but refused to. If the facts are as reported, Femi should have taken the opportunity to say Sorry.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,617
    Will they tell us how many spoilt votes?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,217
    All very exciting isn't it
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    TOPPING said:

    Jeremy Hunt just shortened 10pts on bf (42 => 32) fwiw.

    Would be hilarious if all these people have thrown their toys out of the pram and resigned for nothing. :D
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,617

    Means each MP chipped in less than a fiver....
    It was only the cabinet
    Ah, OK.
  • tpfkartpfkar Posts: 1,565

    Anne Milton resigns.

    She's the Guildford MP, and one of those who will have spent the last 6 months moving from having a safe seat to being firmly in Lib Dem sightlines.

    Looks like it's focussed her mind - I wonder if others between Surrey and Cornwall might be feeling the same?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,627
    Sky have managed to not see Boris come in to the building, despite having had a helicopter over Westminster for the last three hours!
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    TOPPING said:

    Jeremy Hunt just shortened 10pts on bf (42 => 32) fwiw.

    I guess if you wanted a last-minute bit of traction for the 'Boris won handsomely' meme you might splash some wasted money on Hunt? The counter-intuitive ploy.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Grayling in the audience looks gutted on Sky News
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,914
    malcolmg said:

    Roger said:

    Joe Swinson was impressive. Probably helped by her proximity to the Hartley Brewer molester who immediately followed her. If Johnson thinks having spokesmen in his image is a good idea he's making a big mistake. The number of 'yuks' among my small circle was petrifying. Joe meanwhile made the clever decision to aim her fire at Corbyn. It's all about Brexit and until this interview I didn't know Corbyn spent two weeks of the Referendum campaign on holiday!

    Not when you compare to Ashdowne or Kennedy, not even 2nd rate against previous real leaders.
    Of course but she's a one day old virgin. Charlie was crap when he started. Ashdown wasn't but there aren't many of him around. She's competing with Corbyn and Johnson. I'd put Carline Lucas and Nicola Sturgeon top then Joe then a huge gap to Corbyn then the Grand Canyon then Johnson.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    JackW said:

    Grayling in the audience looks gutted on Sky News

    Yes, I thought that. Depressed even.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    tpfkar said:

    Anne Milton resigns.

    She's the Guildford MP, and one of those who will have spent the last 6 months moving from having a safe seat to being firmly in Lib Dem sightlines.

    Looks like it's focussed her mind - I wonder if others between Surrey and Cornwall might be feeling the same?
    Yep and Jeremy Hunt is by no means safe
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    JackW said:

    Grayling in the audience looks gutted on Sky News

    Presumably he's out whoever wins?
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362

    malcolmg said:

    Roger said:

    Joe Swinson was impressive. Probably helped by her proximity to the Hartley Brewer molester who immediately followed her. If Johnson thinks having spokesmen in his image is a good idea he's making a big mistake. The number of 'yuks' among my small circle was petrifying. Joe meanwhile made the clever decision to aim her fire at Corbyn. It's all about Brexit and until this interview I didn't know Corbyn spent two weeks of the Referendum campaign on holiday!

    Not when you compare to Ashdowne or Kennedy, not even 2nd rate against previous real leaders.
    I think that's sexism. Pure and simple. Both those mentioned had foibles. CK, especially, was an alcoholic which isn't great (Churchill being a wartime exception).

    Wait and see.
    Hardly sexism, the cry of the loser. Both were political big hitters. So far she has been a nonentity over 14 years and in my humble opinion will be unlikely to improve. Trying to blame uselessness on sexism is a joke and a refuge for losers.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,131
    If anybody has any last-minute hunches on a Hunt win, now would be a really good time to speak up... :)
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited July 2019
    Boris Johnson late to his own leadership announcement.

    Good start.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069

    Will they tell us how many spoilt votes?

    Ken Clarke probably a close third...
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    edited July 2019
    Malcolm, how you can describe someone as a loser who only yesterday was victorious in the leadership campaign is beyond me.

    Or is your benchmark the Scottish national football team?
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,683
    When Boris makes his victory speech, how full on will he go with the Churchill mimicry he's been adopting of late? I mean, will he do two fingers held aloft and a cigar?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    AndyJS said:

    Boris Johnson late to his own leadership announcement.

    Good start.

    Yep. You couldn't make it up.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    GIN1138 said:

    JackW said:

    Grayling in the audience looks gutted on Sky News

    Presumably he's out whoever wins?
    Not necessarily so. Keep Grayling in to make the others look vaguely competent.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,217
    How on earth can this not run to time ?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,133
    Pulpstar said:

    How on earth can this not run to time ?

    Grayling is still around !!!!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,217
    Last lay of the contest :)

    Jeremy Hunt26£2.00£50.00
    Ref: 172041249152Matched: 11:29 23-Jul-19
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,751
    Pulpstar said:

    How on earth can this not run to time ?

    A recount?
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Recount delay ..... there's between 52-48 in it .... :smiley:
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,707
    I've often said that sports commentators really earn their money when there's nothing happening: for instance, during an F1 red flag period, or an entire cricket match.

    Watching BBC One, the commentators are really trying to fill air time.
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,084

    Cicero said:

    malcolmg said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Tory MPs should be wary of going for Boris too early. They risk being blamed for his failures.

    There's a parallel perhaps with the Owen Smith attempt against Corbyn. For most labour party members, he'd just been elected and they wanted him to have a decent run at it [without continuous undermining from MPs].

    In striking too early, and with an unconvincing candidate, they may have actually entrenched Corbyn for longer.

    interesting times. assuming it is Boris. What if it isn't,...
    If it isn't, 50,000 members will resign and join the Bexit Party at the blatant electoral fraud....
    The Brexit party is a busted flush. Zero MPs and heading for a further flop next week in Brecon
    what if theyre not a party but just a big pressure group ?
    Or a small but well funded one.
    just a well funded pressure group, one trick pony.
    No , that's the SNP, who are prepared to do anything to break up the UK.
    Yeah, apart from opposing Brexit and offering full blooded support (incorrectly imo) to the EU ref II brigade.

    The LD efforts to build bridges and consensus off to its usual good start.
    Hard to build a consensus with numpties who claim we would "sell our grandmothers"... So all's fair in love and war, and expect the SNP to be pulled up every time.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,627
    Chris said:

    Pulpstar said:

    How on earth can this not run to time ?

    A recount?
    Hope so!
  • SandraMcSandraMc Posts: 694
    I've been looking up the definition of Johnson in Cassell's Dictionary of Slang, published 1998. Most of the definitions are not suitable for the sensitive people on this site but I was amused by this definition: Johnson Family n. (late 19C+) a generic term for the world of professional criminals.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,806
    Mr. Jessop, is there no red-shouldered blackbird frolicking in puddles?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414
    Time keeping not improved under the new regime I see.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    May will tell Her Maj that Boris has no chance in the house, Hunt gets sent for. You heard it ere first.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    The lecturn doesn't have a crest on it... :(
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,413
    JackW said:

    Grayling in the audience looks gutted on Sky News

    probably not as gutted as ferry companies
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,133
    Here we go - 2 minute warning by Sky !!!
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Apparently a rather large seagull has snatched Boris up and dumped him in the Thames !!
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,707

    Mr. Jessop, is there no red-shouldered blackbird frolicking in puddles?

    Or improvised boat races down the flooded pit lane. ;)
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,217
    Boris is going to end up like one of those villains in a Bond movie that loses because he takes too long over stuff.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,133
    Live now
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,720
    Andrew said:

    May will tell Her Maj that Boris has no chance in the house, Hunt gets sent for. You heard it ere first.

    Parliament could have indicative votes on possible PMs.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    JackW said:

    Apparently a rather large seagull has snatched Boris up and dumped him in the Thames !!

    :smiley:
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,683
    If Boris is beaming and Hunt looks grim, then we may be in for a repeat of Ed and David Milliband.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,806
    Mr. W, to paraphrase Disraeli:

    It would be a misfortune if Boris were to be dumped in the Thames by a large seagull.

    It would be a calamity if someone were to fish him out.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,217
    Noone wanted to hear Sal Brinton gassing on yesterday and noone is bothered by Brandon Lewis' remarks today
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    Pulpstar said:

    Noone wanted to hear Sal Brinton gassing on yesterday and noone is bothered by Brandon Lewis' remarks today

    Yes. Get on with it. I want my money!!!
  • Bob__SykesBob__Sykes Posts: 1,179
    Brandon Lewis doing a great Comical Ali routine here...
  • SandraMcSandraMc Posts: 694
    This is like the results on Strictly where they really drag it out.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,131

    Live now

    Well, if you insist. Since I really wasn't planning on dying now the advice is perhaps superfluous, but good advice nevertheless.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Boris can hardly conceal his glee.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    This could have been Brady's big moment.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    SandraMc said:

    This is like the results on Strictly where they really drag it out.

    You think the two candidates should have a dance-off to decide who will be PM? I'd like to see Boris' attempt at a Cha Cha, certainly.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    No Carrie with Boris?
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    Boris smiling = yuck
  • TabmanTabman Posts: 1,046
    Dead heat?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,707
    A plea to be kinder to the next PM than they were to the last ,and Boris smiles and claps.

    Git.
  • Bob__SykesBob__Sykes Posts: 1,179
    Hunt proving that you cant hide your disappointment with a forced smile no matter how good you are...
  • Get the feck on with it, let us know just how fecked we are!
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Cheryl Gillan has a rather nice voice to listen to.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    Andrew said:

    SandraMc said:

    This is like the results on Strictly where they really drag it out.

    You think the two candidates should have a dance-off to decide who will be PM? I'd like to see Boris' attempt at a Cha Cha, certainly.
    Hunt is rather good at dancing, isn't he?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,238
    JackW said:

    Apparently a rather large seagull has snatched Boris up and dumped him in the Thames !!

    They make heavy lift seagulls ?

  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    Not exactly doing a good job of this, are they? Late and then deathly dull.

    The tories are so out of touch.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Did Boris learn that exaggerated clapping at Eton?
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,751
    JackW said:

    Boris can hardly conceal his glee.

    Couldn't he have dosed himself with bromide or something?
  • We don't need to know any of this shite.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,133
    Danny565 said:

    Cheryl Gillan has a rather nice voice to listen to.

    I spent some time with Cheryl in the 2010 campaign. A very interesting lady
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    JackW said:

    Boris can hardly conceal his glee.

    Odious
  • Blue_rogBlue_rog Posts: 2,019
    Oh God what a drag out!
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Does Dame C not realise we already know how the process worked?
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    This is aaaawwful
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414
    Votes from at home and abroad. Not sure that is wise to point out.
  • Blue_rogBlue_rog Posts: 2,019
    Are they going to bring on the No10 cat as well!
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    ARE WE THERE YET
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,617
    Jeremy Hunt....is a losing bet.

    No new shoes for TSE.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,707
    159,320 votes
    87.4% turnout.
    509 soilt papers
    Hunt 46,656
    BJ: 92,153
This discussion has been closed.