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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Get ready for Boris’s big day to see CON resignations and the
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Get ready for Boris’s big day to see CON resignations and the LDs perhaps getting another MP
This is the day that many of those elected at CON MPs have been planning for – making a gesture they hope will undermine in some way their new leader who engineered his campaign to minimise the level of scrutiny he came under.
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There's a parallel perhaps with the Owen Smith attempt against Corbyn. For most labour party members, he'd just been elected and they wanted him to have a decent run at it [without continuous undermining from MPs].
In striking too early, and with an unconvincing candidate, they may have actually entrenched Corbyn for longer.
'A third rate pseud' would do admirably,
https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2019/07/boris-johnson-politician-humiliate/594388/
Best hope for Boris (assuming he wins today) is that Corbyn puts off sufficient voters that the blues are less hammered than the reds.
However, if I were giving a third option of being brutally tortured to death, I'd tell him to start heating the irons.
ah yes that successful fk off and join ukip strategy
what do you plan to use for voters afterwards ?
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=c43FUVShDIo
But if I had to buy or sell at 72 I would be buying. I think there is more chance that we get shocked by something up in the 80s than down in the 60s.
Spell of Borismania coming up.
Look out Brecon! Look out Jezza! Look out EU and all and sundry Remainer Quislings!
Oh and I also suspect Labour even under Corbyn will be better than No Deal under Boris...
The online poll for B&R put TBP on 20% which isn't a bad poll from nowhere. In terms of expectation, second was the absolute best for TBP in the seat and it's still within reach. @HYUFD would have you believe because the Conservative plus TBP number is 48% and the Conservative vote share in 2017 was 48% all that has happened is the Conservative vote has split between Con and TBP and with the coming of Boris wikll run back en bloc to the Conservatives. If only politics were that simple...
If I were Farage, I'd be happy with 20% and a solid third in this seat.
I can see the slogan now "Vote Lib Dem - slightly better than being brutally tortured to death" and a picture of Jo Swinson with the caption "Heat up the irons". A landslide awaits....
There are no prizes for a "solid third" against a very suboptimal Tory candidate.
If TBP can't take seats in by-elections, they will not take any in a GE.
The only reason TBP has resurfaced is because we're still in the EU and I think that for as long as we are in they will be around and understandably so. And yet again they have forced a clear policy direction from the government in this case do or die out by 31st October.
Nothing wrong with or unsuccessful about being a pressure group.
Nor do I believe for a second that his backbenchers or even the SNP would vote against him even if he went for some of the madder schemes proposed by Rebecca Long Bailey or Lloyd Russell-Moyle.
Why are we discussing Boris when there's a quality jumps card at Southwell and you can see that Jo Swinson poster now and you won't be able to get that image out of your head for days.
Cameron tragically just couldnt do party management. So go find a unifier.
A shame it isn't Lichfield which they have a chance of winning.
So why am I still there? Well I am looking forward to seeing what happens over the next few days and weeks up and just beyond 31/10 to determine whether they will succeed in getting rid of me.
My guess is TBP will underperform the poll in B&R. They habitually underperform polls.
Dover ... as the case of Nigel Evans showed, it perhaps wise to wait to hear the evidence the police have amassed.
We have just had a very vivid demonstration of police incompetence on a truly massive scale.
My personal view is that the Lib Dems made some pretty colossal political errors in the last coalition. If they avoid things like tripling tuition fees, then there's no reason why they can't prosper electorally from a successful coalition government.
Cameron tragically couldn't bring himself to urge us to Leave.
Cameron tragically legged it - leaving us with May then Boris.
The Johnson bandwagon started to roll after the ComRes poll in the second week of June which showed Boris as the only candidate not only able to stop TBP in its tracks but to win a comprehensive 140 seat landslide majority.
Subsequent Com Res polls have eroded that somewhat and indeed the last one dissipated it completely leaving a leaving a Boris-led Conservative Party, having delivered Brexit, the largest party in a hung Parliament.
The impact of that initial Com Res polling was immediate and decisive as MPs worried for their livelihoods saw Johnson as their salvation and it's amazing how a little motivated self-interest can soon ease any doubts or concerns.
Had a second candidate been able to produce as good a result as Boris we'd have had a real contest but the advantage shifted decisively to Johnson and he has been in control throughout the MP polling and ever since.
You leavers need to man up and take responsibility for the mess.
But it's always easier to blame someone else, isn't it?
My belief is the UKIP member move to the tories has been vastly overstated.
As for the topic in the header. I think the overwhelming outcome will be pressure on the greens to deal with the LDs and Labour leadership to talk more positively about remain. I suspect both tories and BXP have already written this off although the more anti-Tory broadcast journos will go rabid on whichever poor bugger gets the short straw of the overnight studio tour.
As I say, I have been wrong before and will be again
You get a good one for your candidate through natural variation and a friendly media organisation to spin it for all its worth, job done.
Nor can I confirm/deny whether or not the space cannon barrel has been lubricated for ease of loading a particularly fat item of ammunition.
However, today he is almost certain to become leader of the conservative party and Prime Minister and I wish him well and genuinely hope he surprises on the upside
I am very interested in his speech which will no doubt be about unity and to this end his appointments to cabinet will demonstrate if he means what he says
I want to see a diverse cabinet including some sensible former remainers who support Brexit but are reluctant no dealers ( Amber Rudd and Nicky Morgan spring to mind)
After the elections in 1999 and 2003, they were in power with SLAB in Scotland.
They were & are in power with Llafur in Wales. (Labour have cunningly dumped Dim Kirsty with Education, one of the most disastrous & poorly performing portfolios).
All these coalitions led to lost seats and votes.
The truth is the LibDems say one thing to left-leaning voters and another thing to right-leaning voters. That is why LibDem Coalitions lead on to disappointment.
In 2015, UKIP got 12 per cent of the vote. It did the Tories good. They won a majority.
I suspect in a GE, TBP will end with ~ 12 per cent of the vote.
The membership? It was probably the showbiz that did it for them.
I've argued on here many times tuition fees and the AV referendum were colossal unnecessary self-inflicted mistakes while the Conservatives proved far more adept at handling dealing with coalition than I and others in the LDs thought they would and in truth the LDs never found a way to respond to David Cameron.
As a Sheffield man once said "that was then but this is now".
I think the line now is to regard both a Johnson led Conservative Party and a Corbyn led Labour Party as the sort for which, were we to be forced to sup with them, the longest of spoons would be required. So much in terms of negotiation depends on the parliamentary arithmetic and the simple observation is the more MPs you have the more power you have in a post-election situation.
https://www.publicfinance.co.uk/news/2019/07/send-duties-increasing-pressure-councils?utm_source=Adestra&utm_medium=email&utm_term=
Those votes are not returning to Boris so every TBP vote is a lost Tory vote...