If as it appears that the yellow peril are to have a decent showing then I'm minded to remember that old LibDem war horse, late of this parish - @MarkSenior
He will undoubtedly be readjusting his celestial bar charts and with a resounding holy chorus encouraging the heavenly company to "return to your harps and prepare for government."
'Decent showing' for the Liberal Democrats - again, what is it? Second in the vote would be impressive. Top for the first time since 1906 would be astonishing.
But of course if they win big in London and maybe Manchester that will become a dominant narrative given where most of the media is based.
It would also be seriously bad news for Labour given how very reliant they are on a few major urban areas for the bulk of their seats.
If as it appears that the yellow peril are to have a decent showing then I'm minded to remember that old LibDem war horse, late of this parish - @MarkSenior
He will undoubtedly be readjusting his celestial bar charts and with a resounding holy chorus encouraging the heavenly company to "return to your harps and prepare for government."
While @Plato is telling him BXP winning most seats is the real story?
If the London result is as suggested then time for UDI. London Northern Ireland and Scotland Remain. Hartlepool Grimsby Stoke and the East Coast Leave.
> @ydoethur said: > OK. Question for those who know more about Labour than me: > > What level of performance by Labour would be terminal for Corbyn? > > Behind the Tories? Seems unlikely. > > Under 20% of the vote? Seems possible. > > Or will nothing from these elections get rid of the man who makes Theresa May look like a snake instead of a limpet?
Even if Corbyn were to face a challenge (which he really should), I can't see the 'membership' voting to replace him.
If CHUK hadn't screwed things up so badly, they could have picked off enough Labour realists to become a force - but that ain't gonna happen now.
Labour is stuck with Corbyn until he chooses to step down - in favour of his anointed successor (whoever that is this week)
> @Roger said: > If the London result is as suggested then time for UDI. London Northern Ireland and Scotland Remain. Hartlepool Grimsby Stoke and the East Coast Leave. > > Then we'll all be happy
Lets wait for the results. It won't just be London.
> @Richard_Tyndall said: > > @ydoethur said: > > OK. Question for those who know more about Labour than me: > > > > What level of performance by Labour would be terminal for Corbyn? > > > > Behind the Tories? Seems unlikely. > > > > Under 20% of the vote? Seems possible. > > > > Or will nothing from these elections get rid of the man who makes Theresa May look like a snake instead of a limpet? > > It is funny. We are talking about what it means if TBP fall short of their projected vote share but probably the greatest threat to Brexit from these elections is a total collapse of Labour. If Corbyn goes and we end up with a Revote/Revoke Labour leader that changes things dramatically straight away.
That is a very real possibility and the candidates to succed TM need to adjust their offer accordingly as I believe we may be witnessing the end of brexit and certainly no deal
> @Byronic said: > Very nice thread header, Cyclefree. Eloquent and persuasive. > > My new prediction, based on nothing but the movement of clouds and the colour of my coffee grounds - and some of the rumours on this 'ere site - is this: > > BXP: 29 > LD: 24 > Lab:14 > Con: 13 > SNP+PC: 6 > Green: 6 > UKIP: 3 > CUK: 2 > > No idea if this adds up to 100. Could add up to 294.
My prediction
Brexit Party 30% LDs 20% Tories 15% Lab 14% Greens 10% UKIP 4% CUK 4% SNP 3% Plaid/SF/DUP <1%
> @Roger said: > If the London result is as suggested then time for UDI. London Northern Ireland and Scotland Remain. Hartlepool Grimsby Stoke and the East Coast Leave. > > Then we'll all be happy
I wouldn't. Would we need a huge transfer of populations like India/Pakistan?
She really should just be asking him what a hijab is - few people object to head scarves. It's niqabs and burkas that people don't like.
And the hijab has one major advantage. At our local pharmacy the pharmacist can continue talking while dispensing medicines (her phone is tucked tightly between ear and hijab... Given how small lady's clothing pockets are it's a perfect solution...
Thanks. That bears out @Roger, and is disappointing. The Tories urgently need time in opposition but I don't want to see a third rate proto-racist nutter like Corbyn in charge.
> @oxfordsimon said: > > @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > > > TBP most seats seems fairly nailed on, but if they are not first in vote share it will be a disaster for Farage > > > > Fingers crossed > > To take a brand new party with no real infrastructure to gaining most seats in a Euro Election in a matter of weeks will still be a massive achievement - whatever you think of TBP or Farage or what they stand for. > > It makes the future look even more unpredictable.
Same person that won in 2014 just with a different party label, not that spectacular really. Nothing compared to what Macron achieved in France.
T> @ydoethur said: > OK. Question for those who know more about Labour than me: > > What level of performance by Labour would be terminal for Corbyn? > > Behind the Tories? Seems unlikely. > > Under 20% of the vote? Seems possible. > > Or will nothing from these elections get rid of the man who makes Theresa May look like a snake instead of a limpet?
He survives regardless but how he responds after the Peterborough by election is key . I don’t expect a move to a second vote until after that . If tonight’s results confirm a mass desertion by Remainers and he stays on the fence then he’s in trouble . It’s actually easier for Labour to move to a second vote if a no dealer takes over as PM .
Because they then can say to Labour Leavers we basically had no choice .
> If this is anywhere close to being representative of broader results from London - and if we then assume that the Brexit Party won't do any worse than about 20%, either (given that there are still plenty of Leavers in London, and about half-a-dozen of the outer boroughs actually voted to go) then Labour could be heading for a real shellacking.
>
> Mike's 7/2 bet that LD win London looking purty darn good
>
> its nailed on...something weird happening in Enfield..
> Also i would not put a penny on the Tories winning ANY london boroughs inc Bexley and Bromley
I suspect the Brexit Party will win Bexley and the LDs will win Bromley
The first sensible prediction I have seen from you in months. Keep it up!
> That would mean Brexit Party getting considerably less votes than UKIP 2014 even taking into account the slightly increased turnout. Seems pretty unlikely.
Indeed, reports earlier suggested the Brexit Party have easily won Cheshire East and that was 51% Leave in 2016 ie almost exactly the UK average.
So seems the Brexit Party still a clear first nationwide but the LDs winning big in London and Remain areas
I wonder if the nay sayers will have mesmerised the PB massive well enough that BXP winning 29% to the LDs 25% would produce a "disaster for Farage" narrative?
Who am I kidding?! It will be that whatever the result!
I don't think for a moment that the Lib Dems have won on vote share, but you could have Lab/Con/Grn on 15% each and UKIP/CHUK on 4% each, so mathematically you can make the numbers add up.
> > > A quick anecdote from the Emerald Isle - according to RTE, Mr Patrick Sweeney received a total of one vote (that's 1 vote) in the Galway City Central ward.
> >
> > Well at least he remembered to vote. I assume.
>
> His vote will count though as it will be transferred to his second (or lower) choice - unlike here under FPTP where it would be totally wasted! His transfer may even decide it all!
Why is someone with a demonstrably terrible judgement (being the only voter for a candidate) allowed to have a second chance at voting?
Voting for a candidate with few/no other voters is not in and of itself symptomatic of bad judgement. That person may have assessed that candidate as being best for them and voted accordingly.
Looks like the LDs are on for a big night. We therefore have to ask the question, if the chance arises would the LDs go into coalition with the Brexit party and implement hard Brexit?
Remind me which party has been in discussions with the Tories recently about how to implement hard (no single market, no FoM) Brexit...
> @Gallowgate said: > Anyone know if Kilburn, Regent's Park and Somers Town have anything special about them which may explain why Labour have won there but not elsewhere, if that info is to be believed?
> @rottenborough said: > > @ydoethur said: > > > OK. Question for those who know more about Labour than me: > > > > > > What level of performance by Labour would be terminal for Corbyn? > > > > > > Behind the Tories? Seems unlikely. > > > > > > Under 20% of the vote? Seems possible. > > > > > > Or will nothing from these elections get rid of the man who makes Theresa May look like a snake instead of a limpet? > > > > > > I think excuses/deflections are already being got ready. > > > > https://twitter.com/LeftieStats/status/1132687439846346757 > > > > I reckon there'll be enough anger to mean it will happen. > > Unless Jezza announces 2nd referendum tomorrow, he faces a challenge, if the results are as bad as rumoured.
I doubt that the EU elections are taken sufficiently serious for that.
She really should just be asking him what a hijab is - few people object to head scarves. It's niqabs and burkas that people don't like.
And the hijab has one major advantage. At our local pharmacy the pharmacist can continue talking while dispensing medicines (her phone is tucked tightly between ear and hijab... Given how small lady's clothing pockets are it's a perfect solution...
I make you right. Hijabs are just like the kind of headscarves that women in the 60s and 70s in England wore arent they? Not really a big deal. The other two just seem so unfriendly
> @OblitusSumMe said: > > @isam said: > > https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1132666613138972678 > > > > > > > > They could win vote share...reckon about 24% > > > > How is that possible? > > > > IF LD win it on 24%, then the most BXP could get is 23%... where do the other 53% go? > > I don't think for a moment that the Lib Dems have won on vote share, but you could have Lab/Con/Grn on 15% each and UKIP/CHUK on 4% each, so mathematically you can make the numbers add up.
Based on the lack of enthusiasm from their usual supporter, I still suspect Lab and Con could easily both fall into single figures.
> @oxfordsimon said: > > @ydoethur said: > > OK. Question for those who know more about Labour than me: > > > > What level of performance by Labour would be terminal for Corbyn? > > > > Behind the Tories? Seems unlikely. > > > > Under 20% of the vote? Seems possible. > > > > Or will nothing from these elections get rid of the man who makes Theresa May look like a snake instead of a limpet? > > Even if Corbyn were to face a challenge (which he really should), I can't see the 'membership' voting to replace him. > > If CHUK hadn't screwed things up so badly, they could have picked off enough Labour realists to become a force - but that ain't gonna happen now. > > Labour is stuck with Corbyn until he chooses to step down - in favour of his anointed successor (whoever that is this week)
The only realistic way is for Tom Watson to lead 150 labour mps out and form their own opposition party in the HOC leaving Corbyn and the hard left stranded
> @HYUFD said: > > @Byronic said: > > Very nice thread header, Cyclefree. Eloquent and persuasive. > > > > My new prediction, based on nothing but the movement of clouds and the colour of my coffee grounds - and some of the rumours on this 'ere site - is this: > > > > BXP: 29 > > LD: 24 > > Lab:14 > > Con: 13 > > SNP+PC: 6 > > Green: 6 > > UKIP: 3 > > CUK: 2 > > > > No idea if this adds up to 100. Could add up to 294. > > My prediction > > Brexit Party 30% > LDs 20% > Tories 15% > Lab 14% > Greens 10% > UKIP 4% > CUK 4% > SNP 3% > Plaid/SF/DUP <1%<
++++++
Yes, I may well have underestimated the Green performance. I do hope you are right that Labour come fourth; I did think about that, but it felt like hopecasting, not forecasting.
> @another_richard said: > > @Gallowgate said: > > Anyone know if Kilburn, Regent's Park and Somers Town have anything special about them which may explain why Labour have won there but not elsewhere, if that info is to be believed? > > Working class areas.
> @Sean_F said: > I expect TBP will top the poll fairly easily in Bromley. UKIP won 32% there in 2014.
Lib Dems have a good ground game in parts and there is gradual movement of the liberal middle classes out from inner London. I expect it'll be close between the 2.
> @IanB2 said: > > @timmo said: > > > > @AndreaParma_82 said: > > > > > > > https://twitter.com/RichardOsley/status/1132667250698326017 > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > If this is anywhere close to being representative of broader results from London - and if we then assume that the Brexit Party won't do any worse than about 20%, either (given that there are still plenty of Leavers in London, and about half-a-dozen of the outer boroughs actually voted to go) then Labour could be heading for a real shellacking. > > > > > > Mike's 7/2 bet that LD win London looking purty darn good > > > > > > its nailed on...something weird happening in Enfield.. > > > Also i would not put a penny on the Tories winning ANY london boroughs inc Bexley and Bromley > > > > I suspect the Brexit Party will win Bexley and the LDs will win Bromley > > The first sensible prediction I have seen from you in months. Keep it up!
> @Jonathan said: > Looks like the LDs are on for a big night. We therefore have to ask the question, if the chance arises would the LDs go into coalition with the Brexit party and implement hard Brexit?
Only in return for a 10p plastic bag tax or some such vital trade-off.
There is no chance whatsoever of a challenge to Corbyn, however badly Labour do today. The membership decided long ago that having an anti-Semitic, anti-EU, anti-NATO leader is more important to them than winning elections. It’s the one solace die-hard Tories can take from current events.
> @OllyT said: > > @oxfordsimon said: > > > @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > > > > > TBP most seats seems fairly nailed on, but if they are not first in vote share it will be a disaster for Farage > > > > > > Fingers crossed > > > > To take a brand new party with no real infrastructure to gaining most seats in a Euro Election in a matter of weeks will still be a massive achievement - whatever you think of TBP or Farage or what they stand for. > > > > It makes the future look even more unpredictable. > > Same person that won in 2014 just with a different party label, not that spectacular really. Nothing compared to what Macron achieved in France.
2014 was with a party organisation and structure behind him 2019 does have a different feel to it
Trying to deny that it is a significant result seems to misunderstand the gravity of the situation with rare in right now.
It isn't a good thing that TBP is going to score a success here. But it cannot easily be dismissed and should not be ignored.
> @justin124 said: > > @rottenborough said: > > > @ydoethur said: > > > > > OK. Question for those who know more about Labour than me: > > > > > > > > > > What level of performance by Labour would be terminal for Corbyn? > > > > > > > > > > Behind the Tories? Seems unlikely. > > > > > > > > > > Under 20% of the vote? Seems possible. > > > > > > > > > > Or will nothing from these elections get rid of the man who makes Theresa May look like a snake instead of a limpet? > > > > > > > > > > > > I think excuses/deflections are already being got ready. > > > > > > > > https://twitter.com/LeftieStats/status/1132687439846346757 > > > > > > > > I reckon there'll be enough anger to mean it will happen. > > > > Unless Jezza announces 2nd referendum tomorrow, he faces a challenge, if the results are as bad as rumoured. > > I doubt that the EU elections are taken sufficiently serious for that.
You better believe it Justin. This is an earthquake for labour
> > I suspect that the most important thought encapsulated in Ms Cyclefree excellent thread is in the penultimate thread,
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > 'The most important lesson is perhaps this: any significant change in the country’s course needs more than Parliamentary approval or passage as the legal default to gain support. It needs it from as many of those who are initially opposed or indifferent or sceptical as possible. Without it, any change will be vulnerable to its first difficulties. Without it, it will not last.'
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > At the moment it seems that the most comment directed at Remainers is 'You lost; suck it up!".
>
> >
>
> > Which, bearing in mind that the margin was small, doesn't go a long way to unite the country. Unpopular in some quarters that a Customs Union, or May's Deal may be/have been, the fact 'remains' that a significant proportion of the public think the EU membership is, at least, quite a good idea and any government which rides roughshod over those beliefs is not going to last long.
>
> >
>
> > Either that or it is going to have to find such a helping of bread and circuses to bribe enough of the electorate that it will very soon run out of money.
> @isam said: > > @Brom said: > > > > @timmo said: > > > > https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1132666613138972678 > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > They could win vote share...reckon about 24% > > > > > > That would mean Brexit Party getting considerably less votes than UKIP 2014 even taking into account the slightly increased turnout. Seems pretty unlikely. > > > > Indeed, reports earlier suggested the Brexit Party have easily won Cheshire East and that was 51% Leave in 2016 ie almost exactly the UK average. > > > > So seems the Brexit Party still a clear first nationwide but the LDs winning big in London and Remain areas > > I wonder if the nay sayers will have mesmerised the PB massive well enough that BXP winning 29% to the LDs 25% would produce a "disaster for Farage" narrative? > > Who am I kidding?! It will be that whatever the result!
29% would be more than UKIP got in 2014 and 25% would be almost exactly the 24.4% Labour got in those same elections, would be a sign the Brexit Party sweeping the old UKIP vote and a bit more from the Tories and the LDs taking large chunks out of Ed Miliband's Labour vote in 2014 (along with the Greens) and a few Tory Remainers as well
> @SouthamObserver said: > There is no chance whatsoever of a challenge to Corbyn, however badly Labour do today. The membership decided long ago that having an anti-Semitic, anti-EU, anti-NATO leader is more important to them than winning elections. It’s the one solace die-hard Tories can take from current events.<
++++++
I'm not a die-hard Tory but they generally get my vote (though not on Thursday). I take no solace from Corbyn remaining in position. I want a sane opposition and a sane alternative to the useless Conservatives. At the moment no such opposition exists, unless the Lib Dems can somehow perform a miracle in the next couple of years.
> > > They could win vote share...reckon about 24%
> > That would mean Brexit Party getting considerably less votes than UKIP 2014 even taking into account the slightly increased turnout. Seems pretty unlikely.
> Indeed, reports earlier suggested the Brexit Party have easily won Cheshire East and that was 51% Leave in 2016 ie almost exactly the UK average. > So seems the Brexit Party still a clear first nationwide but the LDs winning big in London and Remain areas
> > I wonder if the nay sayers will have mesmerised the PB massive well enough that BXP winning 29% to the LDs 25% would produce a "disaster for Farage" narrative?
> > Who am I kidding?! It will be that whatever the result!
29% would be more than UKIP got in 2014 and 25% would be what Labour got in those same elections, would be a sign the Brexit Party sweeping the old UKIP vote and a bit more from the Tories and the LDs taking large chunks out of Ed Miliband's Labour vote in 2014 (along with the Greens) and a few Tory Remainers as well
> @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > @justin124 said: > > > @rottenborough said: > > > > @ydoethur said: > > > > > > > OK. Question for those who know more about Labour than me: > > > > > > > > > > > > > > What level of performance by Labour would be terminal for Corbyn? > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Behind the Tories? Seems unlikely. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Under 20% of the vote? Seems possible. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Or will nothing from these elections get rid of the man who makes Theresa May look like a snake instead of a limpet? > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > I think excuses/deflections are already being got ready. > > > > > > > > > > > > https://twitter.com/LeftieStats/status/1132687439846346757 > > > > > > > > > > > > I reckon there'll be enough anger to mean it will happen. > > > > > > Unless Jezza announces 2nd referendum tomorrow, he faces a challenge, if the results are as bad as rumoured. > > > > I doubt that the EU elections are taken sufficiently serious for that. > > You better believe it Justin. This is an earthquake for labour
If the turnout is 38% and the Libs win some areas and BXP others there's enough arguments that can be used by Labour to suggest there is no majority across the country for remain or hard brexit but a position somewhere between the 2 is totally valid, which is somewhat ironic given the positions of the top 2 parties.
> @rcs1000 said: > > @another_richard said: > > > @Gallowgate said: > > > Anyone know if Kilburn, Regent's Park and Somers Town have anything special about them which may explain why Labour have won there but not elsewhere, if that info is to be believed? > > > > Working class areas. > > Hence why SeanT lives there.
Has he moved or is Delancey Street on the downmarket side of Camden Town ?
We should remember that the LibDem good news stories that are filtering through via Twitter are coming from areas where LibDems are active enough to be sending people to watch the counts. Which will be by far a minority of UK counting halls.
> @williamglenn said: > > @Theuniondivvie said: > > > > I think excuses/deflections are already being got ready. > --------- > > At a time like this, Labour should turn to someone with the right experience: Jim Murphy.
> @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > @justin124 said: > > > @rottenborough said: > > > > @ydoethur said: > > > > > > > OK. Question for those who know more about Labour than me: > > > > > > > > > > > > > > What level of performance by Labour would be terminal for Corbyn? > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Behind the Tories? Seems unlikely. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Under 20% of the vote? Seems possible. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Or will nothing from these elections get rid of the man who makes Theresa May look like a snake instead of a limpet? > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > I think excuses/deflections are already being got ready. > > > > > > > > > > > > https://twitter.com/LeftieStats/status/1132687439846346757 > > > > > > > > > > > > I reckon there'll be enough anger to mean it will happen. > > > > > > Unless Jezza announces 2nd referendum tomorrow, he faces a challenge, if the results are as bad as rumoured. > > > > I doubt that the EU elections are taken sufficiently serious for that. > > You better believe it Justin. This is an earthquake for labour
Why should these election results be taken any more seriously than the Local Elections of three weeks ago?
> @Brom said: > > @Sean_F said: > > I expect TBP will top the poll fairly easily in Bromley. UKIP won 32% there in 2014. > > Lib Dems have a good ground game in parts and there is gradual movement of the liberal middle classes out from inner London. I expect it'll be close between the 2.
Indeed, the LDs almost won the Bromley and Chislehurst by election in 2006 losing by just over 600 votes to the Tories and Bromley was 51% Remain in 2016
> @Pulpstar said: > The problem for Labour will be that the Brexit Party is going to be storming their northern seats whilst the Lib Dems assault the remain flank. >
@Brom said: That would mean Brexit Party getting considerably less votes than UKIP 2014 even taking into account the slightly increased turnout. Seems pretty unlikely.
++++++++++++++++
If UKIP ends up outperforming, getting say 6-7%, then the combined UKIP+BXP vote could be up quite considerably, even if the BXP ended with a lower vote share than the LDs.
For the record, I don't think it likely the LDs will end up in front. I think BXP will end up on 29-30%, with UKIP getting about another 5%. This means that between the two of them, they will likely have garnered 35% or so more votes than in 2014.
2014 was with a party organisation and structure behind him
2019 does have a different feel to it
Trying to deny that it is a significant result seems to misunderstand the gravity of the situation with rare in right now.
It isn't a good thing that TBP is going to score a success here. But it cannot easily be dismissed and should not be ignored.
There is clearly something behind TBP. No-one has so far found out what. Similarly, it was only after the referendum that the scale and professionalism of Leave's backroom became evident.
> @Pulpstar said: > The problem for Labour will be that the Brexit Party is going to be storming their northern seats whilst the Lib Dems assault the remain flank. > > Double quake for them
> @isam said: > > @Brom said: > > > > @timmo said: > > > > https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1132666613138972678 > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > They could win vote share...reckon about 24% > > > > > > That would mean Brexit Party getting considerably less votes than UKIP 2014 even taking into account the slightly increased turnout. Seems pretty unlikely. > > > > Indeed, reports earlier suggested the Brexit Party have easily won Cheshire East and that was 51% Leave in 2016 ie almost exactly the UK average. > > > > So seems the Brexit Party still a clear first nationwide but the LDs winning big in London and Remain areas > > I wonder if the nay sayers will have mesmerised the PB massive well enough that BXP winning 29% to the LDs 25% would produce a "disaster for Farage" narrative? > > Who am I kidding?! It will be that whatever the result!
Yes. Even if BXP get 40% many will be saying that is less than 52% so a clear loss......
But I'm really starting to think Libdems might of come on top now given how confident they sound.
"It is a crackpot situation that sees interest spiral out of control. Take this example: a graduate with a starting salary of £25,000 and average pay rises will only ever repay £19,000 of debt, while one who starts on £35,000 would repay £179,000 and still owe money when loans are wiped out after 30 years."
> @kjohnw said: > > @Pulpstar said: > > The problem for Labour will be that the Brexit Party is going to be storming their northern seats whilst the Lib Dems assault the remain flank. > > > > > Double quake for them > > Pincer movement
At least Theresa can enjoy some schadenfraude over Jeremy's misfortune with Philip tonight after all his gameplaying over her WA as she prepares to leave No 10
Th> @HYUFD said: > > @Brom said: > > > @Sean_F said: > > > I expect TBP will top the poll fairly easily in Bromley. UKIP won 32% there in 2014. > > > > Lib Dems have a good ground game in parts and there is gradual movement of the liberal middle classes out from inner London. I expect it'll be close between the 2. > > Indeed, the LDs almost won the Bromley and Chislehurst by election in 2006 and Bromley was 51% Remain in 2016
There are large areas of inner London that the liberal middle classes are actually moving into en masse, rather than leaving. These includes places like Hackney, Shoreditch and Holloway, and also traditional left-middle class areas like Camden, Islington and bits of South London even more than before.
> @Pulpstar said: > The problem for Labour will be that the Brexit Party is going to be storming their northern seats whilst the Lib Dems assault the remain flank. > > Double quake for them
Indeed. And the Tories will presumabl have a quadruple quake...
> @IanB2 said: > We should remember that the LibDem good news stories that are filtering through via Twitter are coming from areas where LibDems are active enough to be sending people to watch the counts. Which will be by far a minority of UK counting halls.
2014 was with a party organisation and structure behind him
2019 does have a different feel to it
Trying to deny that it is a significant result seems to misunderstand the gravity of the situation with rare in right now.
It isn't a good thing that TBP is going to score a success here. But it cannot easily be dismissed and should not be ignored.
There is clearly something behind TBP. No-one has so far found out what. Similarly, it was only after the referendum that the scale and professionalism of Leave's backroom became evident.
Isn’t there something behind every party? You make it sound so sinister. What is interesting is that it was built up in a few months.
I really wish Europe Elects (who are very informative) would simply add a descriptor to each party - right, centre right, Green, far left, etc. At the moment these tweets looks like a rather thick alphabet soup and they make my brain hurt.
> @dixiedean said: > Amidst all this speculation of Labour collapse, any rumours as to the Tory vote? Cos to beat Labour they really need to shock on the upside as well.
The Tories look to have beaten Labour in Cheshire East to third based on reports and that was 51% Leave ie a bellweather close to the UK average, it also contains at least 1 Labour seat in Crewe and Nantwich.
If Labour is doing as badly as reports suggest in London the Tories could sneak ahead of them
I really wish Europe Elects (who are very informative) would simply add a descriptor to each party - right, centre right, Green, far left, etc. At the moment these tweets looks like a rather thick alphabet soup and they make my brain hurt.
> @MaxPB said: > > @AndreaParma_82 said: > > > https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1132692847205994497 > > > > > > > > +++++ > > > > I really wish Europe Elects (who are very informative) would simply add a descriptor to each party - right, centre right, Green, far left, etc. At the moment these tweets looks like a rather thick alphabet soup and they make my brain hurt. > > You can tell by the EU Parliament alliance.<
++++
I know but it still takes an unwanted mental effort, on a slow, grey Sunday afternoon.
> > That would mean Brexit Party getting considerably less votes than UKIP 2014 even taking into account the slightly increased turnout. Seems pretty unlikely.
> Indeed, reports earlier suggested the Brexit Party have easily won Cheshire East and that was 51% Leave in 2016 ie almost exactly the UK average.
> So seems the Brexit Party still a clear first nationwide but the LDs winning big in London and Remain areas
>
> I wonder if the nay sayers will have mesmerised the PB massive well enough that BXP winning 29% to the LDs 25% would produce a "disaster for Farage" narrative?
>
> Who am I kidding?! It will be that whatever the result!
Yes. Even if BXP get 40% many will be saying that is less than 52% so a clear loss......
But I'm really starting to think Libdems might of come on top now given how confident they sound.
> @Morris_Dancer said: > Mr. Royale, not whilst the Conservatives are in such a bind. > > The reds might be in trouble. The blues certainly are. > > And *someone* has to win the next election, even if there's no outright majority.
That's not true. If 650 Independents were elected, who would have won?
Anyone who voted Tory or Labour in this election should hang their head in shame. When a quasi-referendum comes along, what can possibly be achieved by voting ‘don’t know’?
> @rcs1000 said: > > @Morris_Dancer said: > > Mr. Royale, not whilst the Conservatives are in such a bind. > > > > The reds might be in trouble. The blues certainly are. > > > > And *someone* has to win the next election, even if there's no outright majority. > > That's not true. If 650 Independents were elected, who would have won?
Mike did you put on your 150-1 bet on LD getting biggest vote share?
> @MikeSmithson said: > > @IanB2 said: > > We should remember that the LibDem good news stories that are filtering through via Twitter are coming from areas where LibDems are active enough to be sending people to watch the counts. Which will be by far a minority of UK counting halls. > > Incorrect.
they add the EU Parliament group next to the party name
EPP=People's Party
S&D= Social Democrats
ALDE= Liberals
G/EFA= Greens and friends
ECR= Conservative and Reformists
GUE= Left of socialists, commies, etc
(EFDD= Europe of Freedom (Farage, etc)
ENF= LePen, Salvini, etc
NI= no groups
> @Byronic said: > > @AndreaParma_82 said: > > https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1132692847205994497<; > > > +++++ > > I really wish Europe Elects (who are very informative) would simply add a descriptor to each party - right, centre right, Green, far left, etc. At the moment these tweets looks like a rather thick alphabet soup and they make my brain hurt.
> @IanB2 said: > We should remember that the LibDem good news stories that are filtering through via Twitter are coming from areas where LibDems are active enough to be sending people to watch the counts. Which will be by far a minority of UK counting halls.
London in other words - which seems to be the only place where we have any concrete reports but admittedly not from outer London more leave inclined areas like Bexley Havering Hillingdon Barking and Dagenham etc
Bar Cheshire east is there any firm info from outside the north and south circular roads?
> @rcs1000 said: > @Brom said: > That would mean Brexit Party getting considerably less votes than UKIP 2014 even taking into account the slightly increased turnout. Seems pretty unlikely. > > ++++++++++++++++ > > If UKIP ends up outperforming, getting say 6-7%, then the combined UKIP+BXP vote could be up quite considerably, even if the BXP ended with a lower vote share than the LDs. > > For the record, I don't think it likely the LDs will end up in front. I think BXP will end up on 29-30%, with UKIP getting about another 5%. This means that between the two of them, they will likely have garnered 35% or so more votes than in 2014. > >
I think if you are to add UKIP and TBP then to be fair to 2014 you also need to add AIFE (an independence from Europe) to the 2014 'leave' total
> @oxfordsimon said: > > @OllyT said: > > > @oxfordsimon said: > > > > @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > > > > > > > TBP most seats seems fairly nailed on, but if they are not first in vote share it will be a disaster for Farage > > > > > > > > Fingers crossed > > > > > > To take a brand new party with no real infrastructure to gaining most seats in a Euro Election in a matter of weeks will still be a massive achievement - whatever you think of TBP or Farage or what they stand for. > > > > > > It makes the future look even more unpredictable. > > > > Same person that won in 2014 just with a different party label, not that spectacular really. Nothing compared to what Macron achieved in France. > > 2014 was with a party organisation and structure behind him > 2019 does have a different feel to it > > Trying to deny that it is a significant result seems to misunderstand the gravity of the situation with rare in right now. > > It isn't a good thing that TBP is going to score a success here. But it cannot easily be dismissed and should not be ignored.
I am not saying that it's not an impressive result I am saying that Farage has hardly come from nowhere to win. It also helps that he pretty much has the leave vote field to himself whereas the remain vote will be split across Lib Dems, Greens, CUK, SNP and PC.
Lets see what the overall vote share is before drawing any firm conclusions. Bearing in mind that 62% of people didn't vote at all.
> @RochdalePioneers said: > > @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > > @williamglenn said: > > > > @RochdalePioneers said: > > > > Jesus... > > > > > > Give us a clue! > > > > I would be surprised if it was good news for labour > > I'm not going to break the legal embargo. But holy hell...
Would you predict labour to come second on the Northeast?
> @Mortimer said: > > @Pulpstar said: > > The problem for Labour will be that the Brexit Party is going to be storming their northern seats whilst the Lib Dems assault the remain flank. > > > > Double quake for them > > Indeed. And the Tories will presumabl have a quadruple quake...
> @HYUFD said: > > @dixiedean said: > > Amidst all this speculation of Labour collapse, any rumours as to the Tory vote? Cos to beat Labour they really need to shock on the upside as well. > > The Tories look to have beaten Labour in Cheshire East to third based on reports and that was 51% Leave ie a bellweather close to the UK average, it also contains at least 1 Labour seat in Crewe and Nantwich. > > If Labour is doing as badly as reports suggest in London the Tories could sneak ahead of them
Cheshire East also has Tatton, Macclesfield and Congleton. 3 ultra safe seats, and some of the wealthiest non-urban parts of the UK. If the Tories hadn't beaten Labour there that would have been truly astonishing.
> @MaxPB said: > "It is a crackpot situation that sees interest spiral out of control. Take this example: a graduate with a starting salary of £25,000 and average pay rises will only ever repay £19,000 of debt, while one who starts on £35,000 would repay £179,000 and still owe money when loans are wiped out after 30 years." > > https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/cut-university-tuition-fees-to-7-500-and-slash-interest-on-student-loans-review-n8lbkhz3s > > This is why young middle class graduates will never vote Tory. We've screwed them for life. > > I really feel so lucky that I went to university when fees were manageable.
You were warned.
I know that because I warned the PB Tories myself. Repeatedly.
That Cameron and Osborne decided to triple lock pensions at the same time as tripling tuition fees emphasised how young graduates were viewed by the Conservative party.
And if there was any lingering doubt the Conservative preference for higher house prices rather than higher home ownership ended it.
If the Conservatives want to find young voters in future they will have to look northwards where there are fewer graduates and more affordable housing.
Comments
But of course if they win big in London and maybe Manchester that will become a dominant narrative given where most of the media is based.
It would also be seriously bad news for Labour given how very reliant they are on a few major urban areas for the bulk of their seats.
As this might happen this summer, if the shellacking of Lab by pissed off remainers is as bad as it sounds like, then time to get a few bets on?
> OK. Question for those who know more about Labour than me:
>
> What level of performance by Labour would be terminal for Corbyn?
>
> Behind the Tories? Seems unlikely.
>
> Under 20% of the vote? Seems possible.
>
> Or will nothing from these elections get rid of the man who makes Theresa May look like a snake instead of a limpet?
Even if Corbyn were to face a challenge (which he really should), I can't see the 'membership' voting to replace him.
If CHUK hadn't screwed things up so badly, they could have picked off enough Labour realists to become a force - but that ain't gonna happen now.
Labour is stuck with Corbyn until he chooses to step down - in favour of his anointed successor (whoever that is this week)
> If the London result is as suggested then time for UDI. London Northern Ireland and Scotland Remain. Hartlepool Grimsby Stoke and the East Coast Leave.
>
> Then we'll all be happy
Lets wait for the results. It won't just be London.
> > @ydoethur said:
> > OK. Question for those who know more about Labour than me:
> >
> > What level of performance by Labour would be terminal for Corbyn?
> >
> > Behind the Tories? Seems unlikely.
> >
> > Under 20% of the vote? Seems possible.
> >
> > Or will nothing from these elections get rid of the man who makes Theresa May look like a snake instead of a limpet?
>
> It is funny. We are talking about what it means if TBP fall short of their projected vote share but probably the greatest threat to Brexit from these elections is a total collapse of Labour. If Corbyn goes and we end up with a Revote/Revoke Labour leader that changes things dramatically straight away.
That is a very real possibility and the candidates to succed TM need to adjust their offer accordingly as I believe we may be witnessing the end of brexit and certainly no deal
> Very nice thread header, Cyclefree. Eloquent and persuasive.
>
> My new prediction, based on nothing but the movement of clouds and the colour of my coffee grounds - and some of the rumours on this 'ere site - is this:
>
> BXP: 29
> LD: 24
> Lab:14
> Con: 13
> SNP+PC: 6
> Green: 6
> UKIP: 3
> CUK: 2
>
> No idea if this adds up to 100. Could add up to 294.
My prediction
Brexit Party 30%
LDs 20%
Tories 15%
Lab 14%
Greens 10%
UKIP 4%
CUK 4%
SNP 3%
Plaid/SF/DUP <1%
Unless Jezza announces 2nd referendum tomorrow, he faces a challenge, if the results are as bad as rumoured.
> If the London result is as suggested then time for UDI. London Northern Ireland and Scotland Remain. Hartlepool Grimsby Stoke and the East Coast Leave.
>
> Then we'll all be happy
I wouldn't. Would we need a huge transfer of populations like India/Pakistan?
> https://twitter.com/suzanneevans1/status/1132683672342224896
She really should just be asking him what a hijab is - few people object to head scarves. It's niqabs and burkas that people don't like.
And the hijab has one major advantage. At our local pharmacy the pharmacist can continue talking while dispensing medicines (her phone is tucked tightly between ear and hijab... Given how small lady's clothing pockets are it's a perfect solution...
Unless Jezza announces 2nd referendum tomorrow, he faces a challenge, if the results are as bad as rumoured.
> > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
>
> > > TBP most seats seems fairly nailed on, but if they are not first in vote share it will be a disaster for Farage
> >
> > Fingers crossed
>
> To take a brand new party with no real infrastructure to gaining most seats in a Euro Election in a matter of weeks will still be a massive achievement - whatever you think of TBP or Farage or what they stand for.
>
> It makes the future look even more unpredictable.
Same person that won in 2014 just with a different party label, not that spectacular really. Nothing compared to what Macron achieved in France.
> OK. Question for those who know more about Labour than me:
>
> What level of performance by Labour would be terminal for Corbyn?
>
> Behind the Tories? Seems unlikely.
>
> Under 20% of the vote? Seems possible.
>
> Or will nothing from these elections get rid of the man who makes Theresa May look like a snake instead of a limpet?
He survives regardless but how he responds after the Peterborough by election is key . I don’t expect a move to a second vote until after that . If tonight’s results confirm a mass desertion by Remainers and he stays on the fence then he’s in trouble . It’s actually easier for Labour to move to a second vote if a no dealer takes over as PM .
Because they then can say to Labour Leavers we basically had no choice .
>
> I think excuses/deflections are already being got ready.
---------
At a time like this, Labour should turn to someone with the right experience: Jim Murphy.
Who am I kidding?! It will be that whatever the result!
> https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1132666613138972678
>
>
>
> They could win vote share...reckon about 24%
>
> How is that possible?
>
> IF LD win it on 24%, then the most BXP could get is 23%... where do the other 53% go?
I don't think for a moment that the Lib Dems have won on vote share, but you could have Lab/Con/Grn on 15% each and UKIP/CHUK on 4% each, so mathematically you can make the numbers add up.
> Anyone know if Kilburn, Regent's Park and Somers Town have anything special about them which may explain why Labour have won there but not elsewhere, if that info is to be believed?
Working class areas.
> > @ydoethur said:
>
> > OK. Question for those who know more about Labour than me:
>
> >
>
> > What level of performance by Labour would be terminal for Corbyn?
>
> >
>
> > Behind the Tories? Seems unlikely.
>
> >
>
> > Under 20% of the vote? Seems possible.
>
> >
>
> > Or will nothing from these elections get rid of the man who makes Theresa May look like a snake instead of a limpet?
>
>
>
>
>
> I think excuses/deflections are already being got ready.
>
>
>
> https://twitter.com/LeftieStats/status/1132687439846346757
>
>
>
> I reckon there'll be enough anger to mean it will happen.
>
> Unless Jezza announces 2nd referendum tomorrow, he faces a challenge, if the results are as bad as rumoured.
I doubt that the EU elections are taken sufficiently serious for that.
> > @isam said:
> > https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1132666613138972678
> >
> >
> >
> > They could win vote share...reckon about 24%
> >
> > How is that possible?
> >
> > IF LD win it on 24%, then the most BXP could get is 23%... where do the other 53% go?
>
> I don't think for a moment that the Lib Dems have won on vote share, but you could have Lab/Con/Grn on 15% each and UKIP/CHUK on 4% each, so mathematically you can make the numbers add up.
Based on the lack of enthusiasm from their usual supporter, I still suspect Lab and Con could easily both fall into single figures.
The headlines may well be about Labour managing to take disaster from Tory defeat !
> > @ydoethur said:
> > OK. Question for those who know more about Labour than me:
> >
> > What level of performance by Labour would be terminal for Corbyn?
> >
> > Behind the Tories? Seems unlikely.
> >
> > Under 20% of the vote? Seems possible.
> >
> > Or will nothing from these elections get rid of the man who makes Theresa May look like a snake instead of a limpet?
>
> Even if Corbyn were to face a challenge (which he really should), I can't see the 'membership' voting to replace him.
>
> If CHUK hadn't screwed things up so badly, they could have picked off enough Labour realists to become a force - but that ain't gonna happen now.
>
> Labour is stuck with Corbyn until he chooses to step down - in favour of his anointed successor (whoever that is this week)
The only realistic way is for Tom Watson to lead 150 labour mps out and form their own opposition party in the HOC leaving Corbyn and the hard left stranded
> > @Byronic said:
> > Very nice thread header, Cyclefree. Eloquent and persuasive.
> >
> > My new prediction, based on nothing but the movement of clouds and the colour of my coffee grounds - and some of the rumours on this 'ere site - is this:
> >
> > BXP: 29
> > LD: 24
> > Lab:14
> > Con: 13
> > SNP+PC: 6
> > Green: 6
> > UKIP: 3
> > CUK: 2
> >
> > No idea if this adds up to 100. Could add up to 294.
>
> My prediction
>
> Brexit Party 30%
> LDs 20%
> Tories 15%
> Lab 14%
> Greens 10%
> UKIP 4%
> CUK 4%
> SNP 3%
> Plaid/SF/DUP <1%<
++++++
Yes, I may well have underestimated the Green performance. I do hope you are right that Labour come fourth; I did think about that, but it felt like hopecasting, not forecasting.
"Mr. W, indeed, and Mr. SBS, who was also a Lib Dem (and a sound fellow)."
.................................................................................................
Quite so.
BTW I've been using the small "like" button at the bottom of favoured comments. A bit like "Eurovision"
You got the maximum one vote from the Auchentennach jury. We especially liked your Morris Dancer costume with added bells ..
> > @Gallowgate said:
> > Anyone know if Kilburn, Regent's Park and Somers Town have anything special about them which may explain why Labour have won there but not elsewhere, if that info is to be believed?
>
> Working class areas.
Hence why SeanT lives there.
> I expect TBP will top the poll fairly easily in Bromley. UKIP won 32% there in 2014.
Lib Dems have a good ground game in parts and there is gradual movement of the liberal middle classes out from inner London. I expect it'll be close between the 2.
> > @timmo said:
>
> > > @AndreaParma_82 said:
>
> >
>
> > > https://twitter.com/RichardOsley/status/1132667250698326017
>
>
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > If this is anywhere close to being representative of broader results from London - and if we then assume that the Brexit Party won't do any worse than about 20%, either (given that there are still plenty of Leavers in London, and about half-a-dozen of the outer boroughs actually voted to go) then Labour could be heading for a real shellacking.
>
> >
>
> > Mike's 7/2 bet that LD win London looking purty darn good
>
> >
>
> > its nailed on...something weird happening in Enfield..
>
> > Also i would not put a penny on the Tories winning ANY london boroughs inc Bexley and Bromley
>
>
>
> I suspect the Brexit Party will win Bexley and the LDs will win Bromley
>
> The first sensible prediction I have seen from you in months. Keep it up!
Will try
I knew my wiffle stick would be irresistible.
> Looks like the LDs are on for a big night. We therefore have to ask the question, if the chance arises would the LDs go into coalition with the Brexit party and implement hard Brexit?
Only in return for a 10p plastic bag tax or some such vital trade-off.
> > @oxfordsimon said:
> > > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> >
> > > > TBP most seats seems fairly nailed on, but if they are not first in vote share it will be a disaster for Farage
> > >
> > > Fingers crossed
> >
> > To take a brand new party with no real infrastructure to gaining most seats in a Euro Election in a matter of weeks will still be a massive achievement - whatever you think of TBP or Farage or what they stand for.
> >
> > It makes the future look even more unpredictable.
>
> Same person that won in 2014 just with a different party label, not that spectacular really. Nothing compared to what Macron achieved in France.
2014 was with a party organisation and structure behind him
2019 does have a different feel to it
Trying to deny that it is a significant result seems to misunderstand the gravity of the situation with rare in right now.
It isn't a good thing that TBP is going to score a success here. But it cannot easily be dismissed and should not be ignored.
> > @rottenborough said:
> > > @ydoethur said:
> >
> > > OK. Question for those who know more about Labour than me:
> >
> > >
> >
> > > What level of performance by Labour would be terminal for Corbyn?
> >
> > >
> >
> > > Behind the Tories? Seems unlikely.
> >
> > >
> >
> > > Under 20% of the vote? Seems possible.
> >
> > >
> >
> > > Or will nothing from these elections get rid of the man who makes Theresa May look like a snake instead of a limpet?
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> > I think excuses/deflections are already being got ready.
> >
> >
> >
> > https://twitter.com/LeftieStats/status/1132687439846346757
> >
> >
> >
> > I reckon there'll be enough anger to mean it will happen.
> >
> > Unless Jezza announces 2nd referendum tomorrow, he faces a challenge, if the results are as bad as rumoured.
>
> I doubt that the EU elections are taken sufficiently serious for that.
You better believe it Justin. This is an earthquake for labour
(Though I did sneak in something about it being bloody stupid allowing members to vote for a party’s leader. Seems a daft idea to me.)
> > @Brom said:
>
> > > @timmo said:
>
> > > https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1132666613138972678
>
>
>
> > >
>
> > >
>
> > >
>
> > > They could win vote share...reckon about 24%
>
> >
>
> > That would mean Brexit Party getting considerably less votes than UKIP 2014 even taking into account the slightly increased turnout. Seems pretty unlikely.
>
>
>
> Indeed, reports earlier suggested the Brexit Party have easily won Cheshire East and that was 51% Leave in 2016 ie almost exactly the UK average.
>
>
>
> So seems the Brexit Party still a clear first nationwide but the LDs winning big in London and Remain areas
>
> I wonder if the nay sayers will have mesmerised the PB massive well enough that BXP winning 29% to the LDs 25% would produce a "disaster for Farage" narrative?
>
> Who am I kidding?! It will be that whatever the result!
29% would be more than UKIP got in 2014 and 25% would be almost exactly the 24.4% Labour got in those same elections, would be a sign the Brexit Party sweeping the old UKIP vote and a bit more from the Tories and the LDs taking large chunks out of Ed Miliband's Labour vote in 2014 (along with the Greens) and a few Tory Remainers as well
> There is no chance whatsoever of a challenge to Corbyn, however badly Labour do today. The membership decided long ago that having an anti-Semitic, anti-EU, anti-NATO leader is more important to them than winning elections. It’s the one solace die-hard Tories can take from current events.<
++++++
I'm not a die-hard Tory but they generally get my vote (though not on Thursday). I take no solace from Corbyn remaining in position. I want a sane opposition and a sane alternative to the useless Conservatives. At the moment no such opposition exists, unless the Lib Dems can somehow perform a miracle in the next couple of years.
Get. Rid. Of. Corbz.
projections
ZDF/ARD
CDU 27.7/27.9
Greens 20.9/21.7
SDP 15.6/15.7
AFD 10.7/10.4
Linke 5.6/5.5
FDP 5.6/5.5
Partei 2.7/2.6
FW 2.2/2.2
Tierschutzpartei 2.0/1.4
ODP 1.0/1.0
Piraten 0.7/0.7
Er, no, scrap that, would be a disaster if they had 150k votes!
Double quake for them
> > @justin124 said:
> > > @rottenborough said:
> > > > @ydoethur said:
> > >
> > > > OK. Question for those who know more about Labour than me:
> > >
> > > >
> > >
> > > > What level of performance by Labour would be terminal for Corbyn?
> > >
> > > >
> > >
> > > > Behind the Tories? Seems unlikely.
> > >
> > > >
> > >
> > > > Under 20% of the vote? Seems possible.
> > >
> > > >
> > >
> > > > Or will nothing from these elections get rid of the man who makes Theresa May look like a snake instead of a limpet?
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > I think excuses/deflections are already being got ready.
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > https://twitter.com/LeftieStats/status/1132687439846346757
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > I reckon there'll be enough anger to mean it will happen.
> > >
> > > Unless Jezza announces 2nd referendum tomorrow, he faces a challenge, if the results are as bad as rumoured.
> >
> > I doubt that the EU elections are taken sufficiently serious for that.
>
> You better believe it Justin. This is an earthquake for labour
If the turnout is 38% and the Libs win some areas and BXP others there's enough arguments that can be used by Labour to suggest there is no majority across the country for remain or hard brexit but a position somewhere between the 2 is totally valid, which is somewhat ironic given the positions of the top 2 parties.
>
>At the moment no such opposition exists, unless the Lib Dems can somehow perform a miracle in the next couple of years.
>
The miracle could be upon us within hours.
> > @another_richard said:
> > > @Gallowgate said:
> > > Anyone know if Kilburn, Regent's Park and Somers Town have anything special about them which may explain why Labour have won there but not elsewhere, if that info is to be believed?
> >
> > Working class areas.
>
> Hence why SeanT lives there.
Has he moved or is Delancey Street on the downmarket side of Camden Town ?
> > @Theuniondivvie said:
> >
> > I think excuses/deflections are already being got ready.
> ---------
>
> At a time like this, Labour should turn to someone with the right experience: Jim Murphy.
'The leader the SNP fear'
> > @justin124 said:
> > > @rottenborough said:
> > > > @ydoethur said:
> > >
> > > > OK. Question for those who know more about Labour than me:
> > >
> > > >
> > >
> > > > What level of performance by Labour would be terminal for Corbyn?
> > >
> > > >
> > >
> > > > Behind the Tories? Seems unlikely.
> > >
> > > >
> > >
> > > > Under 20% of the vote? Seems possible.
> > >
> > > >
> > >
> > > > Or will nothing from these elections get rid of the man who makes Theresa May look like a snake instead of a limpet?
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > I think excuses/deflections are already being got ready.
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > https://twitter.com/LeftieStats/status/1132687439846346757
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > I reckon there'll be enough anger to mean it will happen.
> > >
> > > Unless Jezza announces 2nd referendum tomorrow, he faces a challenge, if the results are as bad as rumoured.
> >
> > I doubt that the EU elections are taken sufficiently serious for that.
>
> You better believe it Justin. This is an earthquake for labour
Why should these election results be taken any more seriously than the Local Elections of three weeks ago?
> > @Sean_F said:
> > I expect TBP will top the poll fairly easily in Bromley. UKIP won 32% there in 2014.
>
> Lib Dems have a good ground game in parts and there is gradual movement of the liberal middle classes out from inner London. I expect it'll be close between the 2.
Indeed, the LDs almost won the Bromley and Chislehurst by election in 2006 losing by just over 600 votes to the Tories and Bromley was 51% Remain in 2016
> The problem for Labour will be that the Brexit Party is going to be storming their northern seats whilst the Lib Dems assault the remain flank.
>
> Double quake for them
Pincer movement
That would mean Brexit Party getting considerably less votes than UKIP 2014 even taking into account the slightly increased turnout. Seems pretty unlikely.
++++++++++++++++
If UKIP ends up outperforming, getting say 6-7%, then the combined UKIP+BXP vote could be up quite considerably, even if the BXP ended with a lower vote share than the LDs.
For the record, I don't think it likely the LDs will end up in front. I think BXP will end up on 29-30%, with UKIP getting about another 5%. This means that between the two of them, they will likely have garnered 35% or so more votes than in 2014.
> The problem for Labour will be that the Brexit Party is going to be storming their northern seats whilst the Lib Dems assault the remain flank.
>
> Double quake for them
Sell Labour.
Boris edged back below 3 - now 2.94.
> > @Brom said:
>
> > > @timmo said:
>
> > > https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1132666613138972678
>
>
>
> > >
>
> > >
>
> > >
>
> > > They could win vote share...reckon about 24%
>
> >
>
> > That would mean Brexit Party getting considerably less votes than UKIP 2014 even taking into account the slightly increased turnout. Seems pretty unlikely.
>
>
>
> Indeed, reports earlier suggested the Brexit Party have easily won Cheshire East and that was 51% Leave in 2016 ie almost exactly the UK average.
>
>
>
> So seems the Brexit Party still a clear first nationwide but the LDs winning big in London and Remain areas
>
> I wonder if the nay sayers will have mesmerised the PB massive well enough that BXP winning 29% to the LDs 25% would produce a "disaster for Farage" narrative?
>
> Who am I kidding?! It will be that whatever the result!
Yes. Even if BXP get 40% many will be saying that is less than 52% so a clear loss......
But I'm really starting to think Libdems might of come on top now given how confident they sound.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/cut-university-tuition-fees-to-7-500-and-slash-interest-on-student-loans-review-n8lbkhz3s
This is why young middle class graduates will never vote Tory. We've screwed them for life.
I really feel so lucky that I went to university when fees were manageable.
> > @Pulpstar said:
> > The problem for Labour will be that the Brexit Party is going to be storming their northern seats whilst the Lib Dems assault the remain flank.
> >
>
> > Double quake for them
>
> Pincer movement
At least Theresa can enjoy some schadenfraude over Jeremy's misfortune with Philip tonight after all his gameplaying over her WA as she prepares to leave No 10
> > @Brom said:
> > > @Sean_F said:
> > > I expect TBP will top the poll fairly easily in Bromley. UKIP won 32% there in 2014.
> >
> > Lib Dems have a good ground game in parts and there is gradual movement of the liberal middle classes out from inner London. I expect it'll be close between the 2.
>
> Indeed, the LDs almost won the Bromley and Chislehurst by election in 2006 and Bromley was 51% Remain in 2016
There are large areas of inner London that the liberal middle classes are actually moving into en masse, rather than leaving. These includes places like Hackney, Shoreditch and Holloway, and also traditional left-middle class areas like Camden, Islington and bits of South London even more than before.
The reds might be in trouble. The blues certainly are.
And *someone* has to win the next election, even if there's no outright majority.
> The problem for Labour will be that the Brexit Party is going to be storming their northern seats whilst the Lib Dems assault the remain flank.
>
> Double quake for them
Indeed. And the Tories will presumabl have a quadruple quake...
> We should remember that the LibDem good news stories that are filtering through via Twitter are coming from areas where LibDems are active enough to be sending people to watch the counts. Which will be by far a minority of UK counting halls.
Incorrect.
> > @RochdalePioneers said:
> > Jesus...
>
> BXP doing rather well in Stockton...
? How do u know?
> https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1132692847205994497<;
+++++
I really wish Europe Elects (who are very informative) would simply add a descriptor to each party - right, centre right, Green, far left, etc. At the moment these tweets looks like a rather thick alphabet soup and they make my brain hurt.
> Amidst all this speculation of Labour collapse, any rumours as to the Tory vote? Cos to beat Labour they really need to shock on the upside as well.
The Tories look to have beaten Labour in Cheshire East to third based on reports and that was 51% Leave ie a bellweather close to the UK average, it also contains at least 1 Labour seat in Crewe and Nantwich.
If Labour is doing as badly as reports suggest in London the Tories could sneak ahead of them
> https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1132686206268002309
We really are the only ones in the E.U who follow the damn rules.
heh
> > @AndreaParma_82 said:
>
> > https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1132692847205994497
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> +++++
>
>
>
> I really wish Europe Elects (who are very informative) would simply add a descriptor to each party - right, centre right, Green, far left, etc. At the moment these tweets looks like a rather thick alphabet soup and they make my brain hurt.
>
> You can tell by the EU Parliament alliance.<
++++
I know but it still takes an unwanted mental effort, on a slow, grey Sunday afternoon.
> Mr. Royale, not whilst the Conservatives are in such a bind.
>
> The reds might be in trouble. The blues certainly are.
>
> And *someone* has to win the next election, even if there's no outright majority.
That's not true. If 650 Independents were elected, who would have won?
https://twitter.com/francessmith/status/1132676306972434434
> > @Brom said:
> > > @RochdalePioneers said:
> > > Jesus...
> >
> > BXP doing rather well in Stockton...
>
> ? How do u know?
Well that's how I interpreted the 'Jesus' comment
> > @Morris_Dancer said:
> > Mr. Royale, not whilst the Conservatives are in such a bind.
> >
> > The reds might be in trouble. The blues certainly are.
> >
> > And *someone* has to win the next election, even if there's no outright majority.
>
> That's not true. If 650 Independents were elected, who would have won?
The Independent Group?
I'll get my coat...
> @MikeSmithson said:
> > @IanB2 said:
> > We should remember that the LibDem good news stories that are filtering through via Twitter are coming from areas where LibDems are active enough to be sending people to watch the counts. Which will be by far a minority of UK counting halls.
>
> Incorrect.
EPP=People's Party
S&D= Social Democrats
ALDE= Liberals
G/EFA= Greens and friends
ECR= Conservative and Reformists
GUE= Left of socialists, commies, etc
(EFDD= Europe of Freedom (Farage, etc)
ENF= LePen, Salvini, etc
NI= no groups
> @Byronic said:
> > @AndreaParma_82 said:
> > https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1132692847205994497<;
>
>
> +++++
>
> I really wish Europe Elects (who are very informative) would simply add a descriptor to each party - right, centre right, Green, far left, etc. At the moment these tweets looks like a rather thick alphabet soup and they make my brain hurt.
> We should remember that the LibDem good news stories that are filtering through via Twitter are coming from areas where LibDems are active enough to be sending people to watch the counts. Which will be by far a minority of UK counting halls.
London in other words - which seems to be the only place where we have any concrete reports but admittedly not from outer London more leave inclined areas like Bexley Havering Hillingdon Barking and Dagenham etc
Bar Cheshire east is there any firm info from outside the north and south circular roads?
> @Brom said:
> That would mean Brexit Party getting considerably less votes than UKIP 2014 even taking into account the slightly increased turnout. Seems pretty unlikely.
>
> ++++++++++++++++
>
> If UKIP ends up outperforming, getting say 6-7%, then the combined UKIP+BXP vote could be up quite considerably, even if the BXP ended with a lower vote share than the LDs.
>
> For the record, I don't think it likely the LDs will end up in front. I think BXP will end up on 29-30%, with UKIP getting about another 5%. This means that between the two of them, they will likely have garnered 35% or so more votes than in 2014.
>
>
I think if you are to add UKIP and TBP then to be fair to 2014 you also need to add AIFE (an independence from Europe) to the 2014 'leave' total
> > @OllyT said:
> > > @oxfordsimon said:
> > > > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > >
> > > > > TBP most seats seems fairly nailed on, but if they are not first in vote share it will be a disaster for Farage
> > > >
> > > > Fingers crossed
> > >
> > > To take a brand new party with no real infrastructure to gaining most seats in a Euro Election in a matter of weeks will still be a massive achievement - whatever you think of TBP or Farage or what they stand for.
> > >
> > > It makes the future look even more unpredictable.
> >
> > Same person that won in 2014 just with a different party label, not that spectacular really. Nothing compared to what Macron achieved in France.
>
> 2014 was with a party organisation and structure behind him
> 2019 does have a different feel to it
>
> Trying to deny that it is a significant result seems to misunderstand the gravity of the situation with rare in right now.
>
> It isn't a good thing that TBP is going to score a success here. But it cannot easily be dismissed and should not be ignored.
I am not saying that it's not an impressive result I am saying that Farage has hardly come from nowhere to win. It also helps that he pretty much has the leave vote field to himself whereas the remain vote will be split across Lib Dems, Greens, CUK, SNP and PC.
Lets see what the overall vote share is before drawing any firm conclusions. Bearing in mind that 62% of people didn't vote at all.
> > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > > @williamglenn said:
> > > > @RochdalePioneers said:
> > > > Jesus...
> > >
> > > Give us a clue!
> >
> > I would be surprised if it was good news for labour
>
> I'm not going to break the legal embargo. But holy hell...
Would you predict labour to come second on the Northeast?
> > @Pulpstar said:
> > The problem for Labour will be that the Brexit Party is going to be storming their northern seats whilst the Lib Dems assault the remain flank.
> >
> > Double quake for them
>
> Indeed. And the Tories will presumabl have a quadruple quake...
Guess who's having a milkquake?
> My prediction of a million votes for the Lib Dems in London could come true if the leaks are accurate.
They'd have to get about 42% of the votes for that to be true.
ECR is the Tories and not much else I think.
> > @dixiedean said:
> > Amidst all this speculation of Labour collapse, any rumours as to the Tory vote? Cos to beat Labour they really need to shock on the upside as well.
>
> The Tories look to have beaten Labour in Cheshire East to third based on reports and that was 51% Leave ie a bellweather close to the UK average, it also contains at least 1 Labour seat in Crewe and Nantwich.
>
> If Labour is doing as badly as reports suggest in London the Tories could sneak ahead of them
Cheshire East also has Tatton, Macclesfield and Congleton. 3 ultra safe seats, and some of the wealthiest non-urban parts of the UK. If the Tories hadn't beaten Labour there that would have been truly astonishing.
> "It is a crackpot situation that sees interest spiral out of control. Take this example: a graduate with a starting salary of £25,000 and average pay rises will only ever repay £19,000 of debt, while one who starts on £35,000 would repay £179,000 and still owe money when loans are wiped out after 30 years."
>
> https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/cut-university-tuition-fees-to-7-500-and-slash-interest-on-student-loans-review-n8lbkhz3s
>
> This is why young middle class graduates will never vote Tory. We've screwed them for life.
>
> I really feel so lucky that I went to university when fees were manageable.
You were warned.
I know that because I warned the PB Tories myself. Repeatedly.
That Cameron and Osborne decided to triple lock pensions at the same time as tripling tuition fees emphasised how young graduates were viewed by the Conservative party.
And if there was any lingering doubt the Conservative preference for higher house prices rather than higher home ownership ended it.
If the Conservatives want to find young voters in future they will have to look northwards where there are fewer graduates and more affordable housing.
> This is interesting and true.
>
Labour's recovery in 2017 had more to do with Brexit and less to do with Corbyn than Corbyn's acolytes want to believe.