You are genuinely deluded if you think that. You will be handing power to the extremists and will be lucky to avoid serious civil unrest. The idea that you can give people a vote and then tell them they were wrong and ignore it means you are telling them democracy is a farce.
Isn't it?
There never was, irrespective of manifestos, a majority of MPs favouring Brexit. Events since the referendum have pointed to Remain or BINO being the final outcome, providing MPs can find some political cover for those outcomes.
My guess is that if there were no political consequences you wouldn't even get 200 MPs voting to Leave. I suspect that a fair number who voted for the deal tonight did so not because they want to Leave, but because they at least realise the risk of ignoring a referendum.
So how many would actually go through the lobby to revoke A50, knowing that an election would almost certainly follow where they would have to defend that decision?
TMay "has not discussed resignation." Which seems utterly bizarre. She may have concluded there was no one else, that she wished to continue, that she was best placed, etc. But not discussed?
Is there a better or quicker way to facilitate the House votes on the alternatives left to us ?
Changing the figurehead is a second order problem.
Not arguing there is. Merely that not appearing to have contemplated it is extremely peculiar.
We need to pause to consider Mays unique incompetence today. The vote was not close. It was blown apart by a document her government published. She seems to have no idea that defeat was going to happen. She ploughed on regardless, spending whatever political capital she had left. What was her whipping operation doing? Why does she walk into these cul de sacs? Who is advising her?
May has made plenty of mistakes, but allowing MP's to vote on the Deal is not one of them.
And, it doesn't matter how good you are if a quarter of your MP's are knuckleheads.
There is a cliche on politics and being able to count.
Having spoken to her MPs May should have known that defeat was likely and managed events accordingly. She ploughed on regardless and spent what little authority she had left.
I am genuinely stunned. The ERG are morons. Utter morons.
Yep.
Never, in the history of politics, can there have been a better example of 'the best being the enemy of the good'.
Quite incredible.
Quite predictable.
I thought I was hanging out with Michael Goves, Geoffrey Coxs, and Stephen Barclays, influenced by the pragmatism of Robert Smithsons.
It turns out I was also hanging out with Andrew Lilicos, Andrea Jenkyns, Steve Bakers and Michael Fabricants, agitated by ultra ideologues and the likes of Aaron Banks.
Indeed...There was a sensible Brexit out there, and the head bangers blew it all up.
And even more bizarrely, they have blown it up for a Brexit ideal that they did not themselves personally believe in or argue for two years ago. They have hardened as time passes, whipping each other into more and more ridiculous positions.
What are you talking about?
Two years ago who was talking about the backstop? The deal was rejected because the EU didn't compromise on the backstop, the deal would have passed with a backstop compromise. Two years ago that wasn't an issue so you're not making much sense.
The backstop was the compromise.
No the backstop was surrender.
Only if you’re determined to be defeated, which the ERG appear to be.
As they see it "better to reign in hell than serve in Heaven."
We need to pause to consider Mays unique incompetence today. The vote was not close. It was blown apart by a document her government published. She seems to have no idea that defeat was going to happen. She ploughed on regardless, spending whatever political capital she had left. What was her whipping operation doing? Why does she walk into these cul de sacs? Who is advising her?
No one is advising her. She is autistic. And I mean that sincerely, not flippantly. She has zero empathy.
We need to pause to consider Mays unique incompetence today. The vote was not close. It was blown apart by a document her government published. She seems to have no idea that defeat was going to happen. She ploughed on regardless, spending whatever political capital she had left. What was her whipping operation doing? Why does she walk into these cul de sacs? Who is advising her?
The cynic in me says she has purposely engineered this crap deal to ensure we remain in the EU. It was a cunning plan all along
I've always thought the way she blew the election was suspicious...
I think unilaterally revoking Article 50 is now the only thing we can do, while we figure out what the hell is going on.
Yeah a complete and total shutdown of Brexit. We have no choice, folks, no choice. 😊
In which case Mr Glenn will be the hero of the site for depriving SeanT of a tiny slice of his immoral earnings.
Immoral?!? I write stories that people like, and buy. Indeed I’ve just had a Hollywood film offer AND a BBC TV offer for etc etc
Apart from that, yes, you’re absolutely right. Williamglenn saw this coming, and I did not. He has rightly earned his 1000 sterling, if we now Remain, as seems likely.
Unusual opinion but I still think a version of May’s Deal will pass. I think most MPs on all sides fear being blamed for cancelling Brexit almost as much as they fear No Deal. Ultimately there is still only one deal in town, and that’s May’s. No matter how hard I daydream, I just cannot see parliament turning its back on the referendum result. I also can’t see it voting for a new GE or new referendum. So I reckon the EU will extend Article 50 for two months and will work with May’s govt to use the clock as its friend. When time does run out I reckon May’s vote will return for a third time and squeak through.
I can see that. I would go further - if we are to leave the EU it can only be via this Withdrawal Agreement. So since we will be leaving the EU (REF2 is a cloud in Remainers' coffee) we will be ratifying this Withdrawal Agreement. It's just a case of when and what the accompanying Political Declaration will end up looking like.
If the Commons has a whopping majority against leaving with no deal, the Govt says well there's no better deal out there then presumably the logical next step of the Govt is to ask for an extension in order to either have another referendum and/or to put a vote to the commons for revocation of article 50 asap?
The options TMay laid out after losing tonight only lead one way? I don't see Brexit happening now.
No its over and the anti-democrats have won. May will be directed to revoke Article 50 within the next few days.
Better than this deal.
If so we get a new PM and then they can invoked A50 again and this time plan all along for No Deal if we can't get an acceptable one, as this PM should have done from the start.
Who's going to be the new PM to invoke A50 ?
I don't see many of the ERG willing to step up and face some reality, take some responsibility and do some work.
There are a lot of thick Brexiters in Parliament and a few more on here. Mr Thompson is one of them.
I'm not thick, I have a principled objection to the backstop. And I don't view Brexit as more important than that.
I've seen a lot of your recent posts and you arte well out of your depth on this.
So if every Tory had voted with their government the vote would have passed by 1? Bastards.
Every Tory would include the likes of Grieve.
So even if every Leaver Tory had backed the Deal it would have still lost.
Maybe. If it was going to be that close who knows?
I expect some of the Labour leavers shied off once they realised the government's deal was doomed.
I'm sure that is true to an extent, but let's be honest in saying that Labour leavers have long been predicted to split off on these votes and yet even now they won't without sufficient cover or assurance of victory, so the reality seems to be that they don't support leaving as much as they say because they are not willing to stand up and be counted about it. Today really was a crunch point, and they still did not materialise. I don't think there were ever as many of them as suggested. Not leavers willing to go against the party line at any rate.
To be fair they are the opposition - the clue is in the name. The prospect of a government in visible crisis is always an incentive to vote the government down. With no prospect of May's deal getting through, there is little upside for any Labour MP voting for the deal.
I utterly reject the idea, not explicitly laid out in your post but often used as a lazy rebuttal in a similar vein, that because one is in opposition that means that no justification is needed when actually opposing something. Were that the case there would never be any cross party backing on anything, because so what if it is the greatest piece of legislation in history, we are in opposition so we must oppose.
Brexit does and should cross party lines, and it is amazing that it has not more often. And while voting with the hated Tories would be horrible and earn them a great deal of opprobrium, this is a critical issue for the country and if they think the deal is acceptable they should have the guts to say so. If they don't, fine, and as it happens I don't think many do think it acceptable, I think the much mooted numbers of those who might is just talk. But I much admire those MPs willing to stick their necks out even though they know something will be lost, particularly when there is no party advantage to them doing so.
If the Commons has a whopping majority against leaving with no deal, the Govt says well there's no better deal out there then presumably the logical next step of the Govt is to ask for an extension in order to either have another referendum and/or to put a vote to the commons for revocation of article 50 asap?
The options TMay laid out after losing tonight only lead one way? I don't see Brexit happening now.
No its over and the anti-democrats have won. May will be directed to revoke Article 50 within the next few days.
Better than this deal.
If so we get a new PM and then they can invoked A50 again and this time plan all along for No Deal if we can't get an acceptable one, as this PM should have done from the start.
Who's going to be the new PM to invoke A50 ?
I don't see many of the ERG willing to step up and face some reality, take some responsibility and do some work.
There are a lot of thick Brexiters in Parliament and a few more on here. Mr Thompson is one of them.
I'm not thick, I have a principled objection to the backstop. And I don't view Brexit as more important than that.
I've seen a lot of your recent posts and you arte well out of your depth on this.
Disagreements aren't out of depth. Name one thing I've said which is wrong rather than a difference of opinion.
I am genuinely stunned. The ERG are morons. Utter morons.
Yep.
Never, in the history of politics, can there have been a better example of 'the best being the enemy of the good'.
Quite incredible.
Quite predictable.
I thought I was hanging out with Michael Goves, Geoffrey Coxs, and Stephen Barclays, influenced by the pragmatism of Robert Smithsons.
It turns out I was also hanging out with Andrew Lilicos, Andrea Jenkyns, Steve Bakers and Michael Fabricants, agitated by ultra ideologues and the likes of Aaron Banks.
Indeed...There was a sensible Brexit out there, and the head bangers blew it all up.
And even more bizarrely, they have blown it up for a Brexit ideal that they did not themselves personally believe in or argue for two years ago. They have hardened as time passes, whipping each other into more and more ridiculous positions.
What are you talking about?
Two years ago who was talking about the backstop? The deal was rejected because the EU didn't compromise on the backstop, the deal would have passed with a backstop compromise. Two years ago that wasn't an issue so you're not making much sense.
The backstop was the compromise.
No the backstop was surrender.
Only if you’re determined to be defeated, which the ERG appear to be.
As they see it "better to reign in hell than serve in Heaven."
"He tasks me! He tasks me and I shall have him! I'll chase him round the Angus Maelstrom, round the moons of Newbury, and round Pendle's flames before I give him up! Prepare to alter course."
I was wrong. I thought ERG would recognise last chance saloon when in one. I don’t understand.
The brexit on the table from May and Eu was a hard brexit, not a soft brexit. Brexiteers pushed it all the way to wring out every ounce of hard brexit. But then they didn’t cash in. They didn’t take the lolly. I don’t understand it. I really don’t understand how the ERG could take it all the way to get hardest brexit they are ever going to get, and not bank it. The moment to switch from poker face to walking out with the pot was there, and they didn’t take it. They are now alone at the table with no money on it. I don’t understand them.
In this years brexit ref it’s 20 million remain, 14 million or less for leave, . It’s a long way back for brexiteers from this moment. tell me I’m wrong. If science is true and unique golden brexit generation is dying off, There may never be a way back for brexit.
Brexit was hard won. It was there on the table for them to walk off with and they didn’t take it. I don’t understand.
Well you have been wrong on just about every other number you put up on here so you will certainly be wrong on those ones.
If there is a referendum I expect Remain will get far fewer votes than last time and Leave will run with an abstention campaign to delegitimise the whole process. After that the country will be ungovernable for the next few decades.
And Remain will win, and we'll move on and no-one worry too much.
Most people are not political, they just want the trains to run on time, and to see a doctor easily...
You are genuinely deluded if you think that. You will be handing power to the extremists and will be lucky to avoid serious civil unrest. The idea that you can give people a vote and then tell them they were wrong and ignore it means you are telling them democracy is a farce.
Will you be involved in the civil unrest?
Depends what it is. But as far as I am concerned if we do not abide by the result of the 2016 referendum then democracy no longer functions in this country and people have a right to take whatever action they see fit.
Unusual opinion but I still think a version of May’s Deal will pass. I think most MPs on all sides fear being blamed for cancelling Brexit almost as much as they fear No Deal. Ultimately there is still only one deal in town, and that’s May’s. No matter how hard I daydream, I just cannot see parliament turning its back on the referendum result. I also can’t see it voting for a new GE or new referendum. So I reckon the EU will extend Article 50 for two months and will work with May’s govt to use the clock as its friend. When time does run out I reckon May’s vote will return for a third time and squeak through.
I can see that. I would go further - if we are to leave the EU it can only be via this Withdrawal Agreement. So since we will be leaving the EU (REF2 is a cloud in Remainers' coffee) we will be ratifying this Withdrawal Agreement. It's just a case of when and what the accompanying Political Declaration will end up looking like.
There's no way. The WA is dead. Second referendum and remain, or unilateral revoke and remain. Those idiots in the ERG are about to reap what they have sowed. Honestly, we need to withdraw the whip, run MPs against them in the ensuing election and be done with the lot of them.
I think unilaterally revoking Article 50 is now the only thing we can do, while we figure out what the hell is going on.
Yeah a complete and total shutdown of Brexit. We have no choice, folks, no choice. 😊
In which case Mr Glenn will be the hero of the site for depriving SeanT of a tiny slice of his immoral earnings.
Immoral?!? I write stories that people like, and buy. Indeed I’ve just had a Hollywood film offer AND a BBC TV offer for etc etc
Apart from that, yes, you’re absolutely right. Williamglenn saw this coming, and I did not. He has rightly earned his 1000 sterling, if we now Remain, as seems likely.
Would immoral spendings be a teeny bit fair?
Mmm maybe. I used to spend a ton on hookers. Hundreds of them.
But now I am happily married I spend my ample cash on fine wine, biz class flights, ludicrously overpriced shoes from Jermyn Street.... and... that’s about it. Also oysters for the wife. We both love them.
Hedonistic and indulgent, but not immoral - unless you severely disapprove of crustracea or fine English footwear
I was wrong. I thought ERG would recognise last chance saloon when in one. I don’t understand.
The brexit on the table from May and Eu was a hard brexit, not a soft brexit. Brexiteers pushed it all the way to wring out every ounce of hard brexit. But then they didn’t cash in. They didn’t take the lolly. I don’t understand it. I really don’t understand how the ERG could take it all the way to get hardest brexit they are ever going to get, and not bank it. The moment to switch from poker face to walking out with the pot was there, and they didn’t take it. They are now alone at the table with no money on it. I don’t understand them.
In this years brexit ref it’s 20 million remain, 14 million or less for leave, . It’s a long way back for brexiteers from this moment. tell me I’m wrong. If science is true and unique golden brexit generation is dying off, There may never be a way back for brexit.
Brexit was hard won. It was there on the table for them to walk off with and they didn’t take it. I don’t understand.
Well you have been wrong on just about every other number you put up on here so you will certainly be wrong on those ones.
If there is a referendum I expect Remain will get far fewer votes than last time and Leave will run with an abstention campaign to delegitimise the whole process. After that the country will be ungovernable for the next few decades.
And Remain will win, and we'll move on and no-one worry too much.
Most people are not political, they just want the trains to run on time, and to see a doctor easily...
You are genuinely deluded if you think that. You will be handing power to the extremists and will be lucky to avoid serious civil unrest. The idea that you can give people a vote and then tell them they were wrong and ignore it means you are telling them democracy is a farce.
Will you be involved in the civil unrest?
Depends what it is. But as far as I am concerned if we do not abide by the result of the 2016 referendum then democracy no longer functions in this country and people have a right to take whatever action they see fit.
Unless Brexit is voted down decisively in a referendum.
We need to pause to consider Mays unique incompetence today. The vote was not close. It was blown apart by a document her government published. She seems to have no idea that defeat was going to happen. She ploughed on regardless, spending whatever political capital she had left. What was her whipping operation doing? Why does she walk into these cul de sacs? Who is advising her?
The cynic in me says she has purposely engineered this crap deal to ensure we remain in the EU. It was a cunning plan all along
I've always thought the way she blew the election was suspicious...
She managed it brilliantly, she must have been terrified when it looked like the massive poll leads would be borne out, and had to take drastic action to put a stop to that.
I was wrong. I thought ERG would recognise last chance saloon when in one. I don’t understand.
The brexit on the table from May and Eu was a hard brexit, not a soft brexit. Brexiteers pushed it all the way to wring out every ounce of hard brexit. But then they didn’t cash in. They didn’t take the lolly. I don’t understand it. I really don’t understand how the ERG could take it all the way to get hardest brexit they are ever going to get, and not bank it. The moment to switch from poker face to walking out with the pot was there, and they didn’t take it. They are now alone at the table with no money on it. I don’t understand them.
In this years brexit ref it’s 20 million remain, 14 million or less for leave, . It’s a long way back for brexiteers from this moment. tell me I’m wrong. If science is true and unique golden brexit generation is dying off, There may never be a way back for brexit.
Brexit was hard won. It was there on the table for them to walk off with and they didn’t take it. I don’t understand.
Well you have been wrong on just about every other number you put up on here so you will certainly be wrong on those ones.
If there is a referendum I expect Remain will get far fewer votes than last time and Leave will run with an abstention campaign to delegitimise the whole process. After that the country will be ungovernable for the next few decades.
And Remain will win, and we'll move on and no-one worry too much.
Most people are not political, they just want the trains to run on time, and to see a doctor easily...
You are genuinely deluded if you think that. You will be handing power to the extremists and will be lucky to avoid serious civil unrest. The idea that you can give people a vote and then tell them they were wrong and ignore it means you are telling them democracy is a farce.
We don't normally do direct democracy (with good reason) so we didn't really know whether it was a farce or not (It is). As for "the extremists" some types of extremist scare the shit out of me. The Brexit Mean's brexit lot are not among them.
Actually we do quite a lot of these direct democracy things. At least we have this century. Can you imagine the reaction if Scotland had voted the Leave and we had then said no you can't?
I think unilaterally revoking Article 50 is now the only thing we can do, while we figure out what the hell is going on.
Yeah a complete and total shutdown of Brexit. We have no choice, folks, no choice. 😊
In which case Mr Glenn will be the hero of the site for depriving SeanT of a tiny slice of his immoral earnings.
Immoral?!? I write stories that people like, and buy. Indeed I’ve just had a Hollywood film offer AND a BBC TV offer for etc etc
Apart from that, yes, you’re absolutely right. Williamglenn saw this coming, and I did not. He has rightly earned his 1000 sterling, if we now Remain, as seems likely.
Would immoral spendings be a teeny bit fair?
Mmm maybe. I used to spend a ton on hookers. Hundreds of them.
But now I am happily married I spend my ample cash on fine wine, biz class flights, ludicrously overpriced shoes from Jermyn Street.... and... that’s about it. Also oysters for the wife. We both love them.
Hedonistic and indulgent, but not immoral - unless you severely disapprove of crustracea or fine English footwear
I was wrong. I thought ERG would recognise last chance saloon when in one. I don’t understand.
snip In this years brexit ref it’s 20 million remain, 14 million or less for leave, . It’s a long way back for brexiteers from this moment. tell me I’m wrong. If science is true and unique golden brexit generation is dying off, There may never be a way back for brexit.
Brexit was hard won. It was there on the table for them to walk off with and they didn’t take it. I don’t understand.
Well you have been wrong on just about every other number you put up on here so you will certainly be wrong on those ones.
If there is a referendum I expect Remain will get far fewer votes than last time and Leave will run with an abstention campaign to delegitimise the whole process. After that the country will be ungovernable for the next few decades.
And Remain will win, and we'll move on and no-one worry too much.
Most people are not political, they just want the trains to run on time, and to see a doctor easily...
You are genuinely deluded if you think that. You will be handing power to the extremists and will be lucky to avoid serious civil unrest. The idea that you can give people a vote and then tell them they were wrong and ignore it means you are telling them democracy is a farce.
Will you be involved in the civil unrest?
Depends what it is. But as far as I am concerned if we do not abide by the result of the 2016 referendum then democracy no longer functions in this country and people have a right to take whatever action they see fit.
Unless Brexit is voted down decisively in a referendum.
So how many would actually go through the lobby to revoke A50, knowing that an election would almost certainly follow where they would have to defend that decision?
That's what I'm getting at, there's a gulf between what MPs want to do, and what they think they need to do. They would likely pull the plug tonight if they could, but they know there would be carnage at the next election.
I think unilaterally revoking Article 50 is now the only thing we can do, while we figure out what the hell is going on.
Yeah a complete and total shutdown of Brexit. We have no choice, folks, no choice. 😊
In which case Mr Glenn will be the hero of the site for depriving SeanT of a tiny slice of his immoral earnings.
Immoral?!? I write stories that people like, and buy. Indeed I’ve just had a Hollywood film offer AND a BBC TV offer for etc etc
Apart from that, yes, you’re absolutely right. Williamglenn saw this coming, and I did not. He has rightly earned his 1000 sterling, if we now Remain, as seems likely.
Would immoral spendings be a teeny bit fair?
Mmm maybe. I used to spend a ton on hookers. Hundreds of them.
But now I am happily married I spend my ample cash on fine wine, biz class flights, ludicrously overpriced shoes from Jermyn Street.... and... that’s about it. Also oysters for the wife. We both love them.
Hedonistic and indulgent, but not immoral - unless you severely disapprove of crustracea or fine English footwear
We need to pause to consider Mays unique incompetence today. The vote was not close. It was blown apart by a document her government published. She seems to have no idea that defeat was going to happen. She ploughed on regardless, spending whatever political capital she had left. What was her whipping operation doing? Why does she walk into these cul de sacs? Who is advising her?
No one is advising her. She is autistic. And I mean that sincerely, not flippantly. She has zero empathy.
Speaking as an autist myself, autism !== lack of empathy, or at least not always.
I think May is first and foremost a bureaucrat and secondly a securocrat. She craves order, compliance and stability, which is why she did so well as Home Secretary, an office which in recent decades has become a graveyard of political careers.
If she'd lived in the Soviet Union she'd have been a senior KGB operative. Now, I don't mean she'd have been so amoral as to have conducted purges, but in the late, stagnating USSR she would have been perfect in the role. She is a Chekist.
So if every Tory had voted with their government the vote would have passed by 1? Bastards.
Every Tory would include the likes of Grieve.
So even if every Leaver Tory had backed the Deal it would have still lost.
Maybe. If it was going to be that close who knows?
I expect some of the Labour leavers shied off once they realised the government's deal was doomed.
I'm sure that is true to an extent, but let's be honest in saying that Labour leavers have long been predicted to split off on these votes p and be counted about it. Today really was a crunch point, and they still did not materialise. I don't think there were ever as many of them as suggested. Not leavers willing to go against the party line at any rate.
To be fair they are the opposition - the clue is in the name. The prospect of a government in visible crisis is always an incentive to vote the government down. With no prospect of May's deal getting through, there is little upside for any Labour MP voting for the deal.
I utterly reject the idea, not explicitly laid out in your post but often used as a lazy rebuttal in a similar vein, that because one is in opposition that means that no justification is needed when actually opposing something. Were that the case there would never be any cross party backing on anything, because so what if it is the greatest piece of legislation in history, we are in opposition so we must oppose.
Brexit does and should cross party lines, and it is amazing that it has not more often. And while voting with the hated Tories would be horrible and earn them a great deal of opprobrium, this is a critical issue for the country and if they think the deal is acceptable they should have the guts to say so. If they don't, fine, and as it happens I don't think many do think it acceptable, I think the much mooted numbers of those who might is just talk. But I much admire those MPs willing to stick their necks out even though they know something will be lost, particularly when there is no party advantage to them doing so.
My point is that the Labour leavers would have had an honourable position had they been able to help the government deliver Brexit by getting its deal across the line. But there is politically zilch in it for them in reducing a government defeat of 159 by ten or twenty.
I was wrong. I thought ERG would recognise last chance saloon when in one. I don’t understand.
The brexit on the table from May and Eu was a hard brexit, not a soft brexit. Brexiteers pushed it all the way to wring out every ounce of hard brexit. But then they didn’t cash in. They didn’t take the lolly. I don’t understand it. I really don’t understand how the ERG could take it all the way to get hardest brexit they are ever going to get, and not bank it. The moment to switch from poker face to walking out with the pot was there, and they didn’t take it. They are now alone at the table with no money on it. I don’t understand them.
In this years brexit ref it’s 20 million remain, 14 million or less for leave, . It’s a long way back for brexiteers from this moment. tell me I’m wrong. If science is true and unique golden brexit generation is dying off, There may never be a way back for brexit.
Brexit was hard won. It was there on the table for them to walk off with and they didn’t take it. I don’t understand.
Well you have been wrong on just about every other number you put up on here so you will certainly be wrong on those ones.
If there is a referendum I expect Remain will get far fewer votes than last time and Leave will run with an abstention campaign to delegitimise the whole process. After that the country will be ungovernable for the next few decades.
And Remain will win, and we'll move on and no-one worry too much.
Most people are not political, they just want the trains to run on time, and to see a doctor easily...
You are genuinely deluded if you think that. You will be handing power to the extremists and will be lucky to avoid serious civil unrest. The idea that you can give people a vote and then tell them they were wrong and ignore it means you are telling them democracy is a farce.
Will you be involved in the civil unrest?
Depends what it is. But as far as I am concerned if we do not abide by the result of the 2016 referendum then democracy no longer functions in this country and people have a right to take whatever action they see fit.
Unless Brexit is voted down decisively in a referendum.
Nope. A reminder for you dumb fucks. Democracy is not just about asking a question, it is about enacting the answer. Otherwise you are a dictatorship.
I think unilaterally revoking Article 50 is now the only thing we can do, while we figure out what the hell is going on.
It's the only course of action that doesn't hand control of the agenda to the EU.
I am forced to agree. Revoke is now, theoretically, the best option. We are internationally embarrassed but we keep the Rebate, opt-outs, everything, & business floods back to London
Trouble is it also hands the next election to Corbyn.
You are genuinely deluded if you think that. You will be handing power to the extremists and will be lucky to avoid serious civil unrest. The idea that you can give people a vote and then tell them they were wrong and ignore it means you are telling them democracy is a farce.
Isn't it?
There never was, irrespective of manifestos, a majority of MPs favouring Brexit. Events since the referendum have pointed to Remain or BINO being the final outcome, providing MPs can find some political cover for those outcomes.
My guess is that if there were no political consequences you wouldn't even get 200 MPs voting to Leave. I suspect that a fair number who voted for the deal tonight did so not because they want to Leave, but because they at least realise the risk of ignoring a referendum.
So how many would actually go through the lobby to revoke A50, knowing that an election would almost certainly follow where they would have to defend that decision?
Oh quite a few I think. Perhaps even a majority.
It's hard for us politicos to credit but many people are turned off by the whole Brexit process. A group of colleagues were saying to me only the other day how they had stopped watching the news because they were bored with the whole thing. If there was a general election people like that would vote on the usual issues, health education etc and their MPs view of Brexit would not be a major factor.
If the Commons has a whopping majority against leaving with no deal, the Govt says well there's no better deal out there then presumably the logical next step of the Govt is to ask for an extension in order to either have another referendum and/or to put a vote to the commons for revocation of article 50 asap?
The options TMay laid out after losing tonight only lead one way? I don't see Brexit happening now.
No its over and the anti-democrats have won. May will be directed to revoke Article 50 within the next few days.
Better than this deal.
If so we get a new PM and then they can invoked A50 again and this time plan all along for No Deal if we can't get an acceptable one, as this PM should have done from the start.
Who's going to be the new PM to invoke A50 ?
I don't see many of the ERG willing to step up and face some reality, take some responsibility and do some work.
There are a lot of thick Brexiters in Parliament and a few more on here. Mr Thompson is one of them.
I'm not thick, I have a principled objection to the backstop. And I don't view Brexit as more important than that.
I've seen a lot of your recent posts and you arte well out of your depth on this.
Disagreements aren't out of depth. Name one thing I've said which is wrong rather than a difference of opinion.
That the commission wouldn't work towards a long term trade deal. You are absolutely wrong about that. They want us in the backstop permanently about as much as we want to be in it permanently. That plus the new arbitration process on bad faith on the part of the EU gave us a way out of the backstop if they kept us in against our will.
In another life MPs voted to leave today and 5 years from now we'd be out of the EU, we'd have 40-50 trade deals signed and we'd be about to sign a long term trade deal with the EU along the lines of the Canada deal with a bit more border facilitation for goods trade.
Your lot have blown it and now we're doomed to an existence of servitude to the EU.
If we remain, I think it's time for us to join the Euro and Schengen. We need to go all in now and own the place. Our current stance doesn't work any longer.
If the Commons has a whopping majority against leaving with no deal, the Govt says well there's no better deal out there then presumably the logical next step of the Govt is to ask for an extension in order to either have another referendum and/or to put a vote to the commons for revocation of article 50 asap?
The options TMay laid out after losing tonight only lead one way? I don't see Brexit happening now.
No its over and the anti-democrats have won. May will be directed to revoke Article 50 within the next few days.
Better than this deal.
If so we get a new PM and then they can invoked A50 again and this time plan all along for No Deal if we can't get an acceptable one, as this PM should have done from the start.
You're absolutely delusional. Once A50 is revoked we won't leave for 20-30 years or if the EU collapses.
Delusion is the disease of the ultras.
Assuming they’re not secret Remainers.
I must admit that conspiracy theories are understandable. The Ergers show every sign of being Remainer double agents.
In an alternative world, all the Tories could have voted with the government tonight and the ‘meaningful’ vote would have carried by 1.
Tomorrow’s business would then be a VoNC, which the government would lose with the DUP opposed. Then would start a 14-day clock to find a new PM, with all the Brexit legislation still outstanding and the Treaty not yet formally ratified.
It would have passed by more than 1. A handful at least of Labour MPs, maybe more, would have supported it if it looked as though it had a chance of getting over the line.
Meanwhile, contrary to what some have been saying, the vote on No Deal tomorrow is going to be very significant. This is because No Deal is going to be absolutely walloped, probably by a majority of 400 or maybe more. No PM is going to be able to ignore that, and paradoxically it will also help the current deal look relatively well supported. Given that, and because I don't think parliament is going to vote for Revoke without the democratic fig-leaf cover of a referendum, it looks to me as though this is heading towards a Revoke/Deal referendum.
The main obstacles to this are whether the EU agrees to a delay, and whether the government can actually survive long enough to get a referendum off the ground.
If the Commons has a whopping majority against leaving with no deal, the Govt says well there's no better deal out there then presumably the logical next step of the Govt is to ask for an extension in order to either have another referendum and/or to put a vote to the commons for revocation of article 50 asap?
The options TMay laid out after losing tonight only lead one way? I don't see Brexit happening now.
No its over and the anti-democrats have won. May will be directed to revoke Article 50 within the next few days.
Better than this deal.
If so we get a new PM and then they can invoked A50 again and this time plan all along for No Deal if we can't get an acceptable one, as this PM should have done from the start.
No chance mate.... you think a no-dealer is ever going to command a majority in the house???
If they become Tory leader then they can go to the polls to get a majority.
If die-hard Remainers walk out of the party to the Tiggers because a no-dealer has become PM then that makes it all the more possible that an elected majority will include a majority willing to countenance no deal. Especially no deal after 2 years of preparations which A50 gives us.
Oh FFS...the Tories would be ***ked like a dock side hooker and you know it.
I hate Corbyn, and I would vote Labour to stop a no-deal happening. It's economic suicide, and everyone knows it.
The Tories enjoy a 10% lead in today's Kantar poll. Admittedly the Greens are given a very unlikely 6%.
Spare a thought for Cox - he could have gone down as the man who delivered Brexit, if he had been persuaded to change his mind and the DUP and co actually reacted as they suggested they might in those circumstances. Instead he took a decision he knew would spell the end for the efforts of his PM, and quite possibly Brexit as well. The politician vs the lawyer within him must have been a tough battle.
The problem is other legal opinion was so against that he would have looked a fool and it’s unlikely the deal would have got through anyway . And he might have the Iraq issue at the back of his mind where the AG gave some rather dubious advice .
In an alternative world, all the Tories could have voted with the government tonight and the ‘meaningful’ vote would have carried by 1.
Tomorrow’s business would then be a VoNC, which the government would lose with the DUP opposed. Then would start a 14-day clock to find a new PM, with all the Brexit legislation still outstanding and the Treaty not yet formally ratified.
It would have passed by more than 1. A handful at least of Labour MPs, maybe more, would have supported it if it looked as though it had a chance of getting over the line.
Meanwhile, contrary to what some have been saying, the vote on No Deal tomorrow is going to be very significant. This is because No Deal is going to be absolutely walloped, probably by a majority of 400 or maybe more. No PM is going to be able to ignore that, and paradoxically it will also help the current deal look relatively well supported. Given that, and because I don't think parliament is going to vote for Revoke without the democratic fig-leaf cover of a referendum, it looks to me as though this is heading towards a Revoke/Deal referendum.
The main obstacles to this are whether the EU agrees to a delay, and whether the government can actually survive long enough to get a referendum off the ground.
Keep buying in the popcorn.
Honestly, I just don't understand how the ERG can't see any of this. I'm beginning to agree with TSE, they are remain double agents.
Either way if we stay in the EU our party is finished.
I am genuinely stunned. The ERG are morons. Utter morons.
Yep.
Never, in the history of politics, can there have been a better example of 'the best being the enemy of the good'.
Quite incredible.
Quite predictable.
I thought I was hanging out with Michael Goves, Geoffrey Coxs, and Stephen Barclays, influenced by the pragmatism of Robert Smithsons.
It turns out I was also hanging out with Andrew Lilicos, Andrea Jenkyns, Steve Bakers and Michael Fabricants, agitated by ultra ideologues and the likes of Aaron Banks.
Indeed...There was a sensible Brexit out there, and the head bangers blew it all up.
And even more bizarrely, they have blown it up for a Brexit ideal that they did not themselves personally believe in or argue for two years ago. They have hardened as time passes, whipping each other into more and more ridiculous positions.
What are you talking about?
Two years ago who was talking about the backstop? The deal was rejected because the EU didn't compromise on the backstop, the deal would have passed with a backstop compromise. Two years ago that wasn't an issue so you're not making much sense.
The backstop was the compromise.
No the backstop was surrender.
Only if you’re determined to be defeated, which the ERG appear to be.
As they see it "better to reign in hell than serve in Heaven."
It is genuinely embarrassing that my exposure to some major poems were via genre fiction. I know parts of Tennyson’s Ulysses not thru an expansive education, but because it's cropped up in Skyfall and Babylon 5 (more than once in the latter case)
I think unilaterally revoking Article 50 is now the only thing we can do, while we figure out what the hell is going on.
Yeah a complete and total shutdown of Brexit. We have no choice, folks, no choice. 😊
In which case Mr Glenn will be the hero of the site for depriving SeanT of a tiny slice of his immoral earnings.
Immoral?!? I write stories that people like, and buy. Indeed I’ve just had a Hollywood film offer AND a BBC TV offer for etc etc
Apart from that, yes, you’re absolutely right. Williamglenn saw this coming, and I did not. He has rightly earned his 1000 sterling, if we now Remain, as seems likely.
I think unilaterally revoking Article 50 is now the only thing we can do, while we figure out what the hell is going on.
Yeah a complete and total shutdown of Brexit. We have no choice, folks, no choice. 😊
In which case Mr Glenn will be the hero of the site for depriving SeanT of a tiny slice of his immoral earnings.
Immoral?!? I write stories that people like, and buy. Indeed I’ve just had a Hollywood film offer AND a BBC TV offer for etc etc
Apart from that, yes, you’re absolutely right. Williamglenn saw this coming, and I did not. He has rightly earned his 1000 sterling, if we now Remain, as seems likely.
For William to win his bet, by which date do we need to Remain?
Fair shout from Nicola. We have handed our futures to a coterie of reactionary bigots who do not even command a majority of public opinion in their own country...
If the Commons has a whopping majority against leaving with no deal, the Govt says well there's no better deal out there then presumably the logical next step of the Govt is to ask for an extension in order to either have another referendum and/or to put a vote to the commons for revocation of article 50 asap?
The options TMay laid out after losing tonight only lead one way? I don't see Brexit happening now.
No its over and the anti-democrats have won. May will be directed to revoke Article 50 within the next few days.
Better than this deal.
If so we get a new PM and then they can invoked A50 again and this time plan all along for No Deal if we can't get an acceptable one, as this PM should have done from the start.
Never going to happen. Your fellow travellers have probably ended the last chance we will get to leave. The country is completely and utterly fucked now. All those fearing a No Deal will come to realise it was a far better option that what we face now.
So we don't leave. Not that big of a deal. If the only way to leave was into purgatory of being in the backstop with zero power then I'd rather not leave anyway.
Comments
Having spoken to her MPs May should have known that defeat was likely and managed events accordingly. She ploughed on regardless and spent what little authority she had left.
No one is advising her. She is autistic. And I mean that sincerely, not flippantly. She has zero empathy.
Brexit does and should cross party lines, and it is amazing that it has not more often. And while voting with the hated Tories would be horrible and earn them a great deal of opprobrium, this is a critical issue for the country and if they think the deal is acceptable they should have the guts to say so. If they don't, fine, and as it happens I don't think many do think it acceptable, I think the much mooted numbers of those who might is just talk. But I much admire those MPs willing to stick their necks out even though they know something will be lost, particularly when there is no party advantage to them doing so.
https://twitter.com/NicolaSturgeon/status/1105562658630234113?s=19
But now I am happily married I spend my ample cash on fine wine, biz class flights, ludicrously overpriced shoes from Jermyn Street.... and... that’s about it. Also oysters for the wife. We both love them.
Hedonistic and indulgent, but not immoral - unless you severely disapprove of crustracea or fine English footwear
NEW THREAD
May's crap deal has died. A new PM must get a new deal and this is a decent starting point.
I think May is first and foremost a bureaucrat and secondly a securocrat. She craves order, compliance and stability, which is why she did so well as Home Secretary, an office which in recent decades has become a graveyard of political careers.
If she'd lived in the Soviet Union she'd have been a senior KGB operative. Now, I don't mean she'd have been so amoral as to have conducted purges, but in the late, stagnating USSR she would have been perfect in the role. She is a Chekist.
I think the Betfair market might be the wrong way around.
Betfair say Yes 1.16, No 6.8.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/event/28180290/market?marketId=1.156133674
IIRC the motion is in the negative, so Yes is for no deal.
It was 1.02 / 55 a few mins ago.
It's hard for us politicos to credit but many people are turned off by the whole Brexit process. A group of colleagues were saying to me only the other day how they had stopped watching the news because they were bored with the whole thing. If there was a general election people like that would vote on the usual issues, health education etc and their MPs view of Brexit would not be a major factor.
In another life MPs voted to leave today and 5 years from now we'd be out of the EU, we'd have 40-50 trade deals signed and we'd be about to sign a long term trade deal with the EU along the lines of the Canada deal with a bit more border facilitation for goods trade.
Your lot have blown it and now we're doomed to an existence of servitude to the EU.
If we remain, I think it's time for us to join the Euro and Schengen. We need to go all in now and own the place. Our current stance doesn't work any longer.
Meanwhile, contrary to what some have been saying, the vote on No Deal tomorrow is going to be very significant. This is because No Deal is going to be absolutely walloped, probably by a majority of 400 or maybe more. No PM is going to be able to ignore that, and paradoxically it will also help the current deal look relatively well supported. Given that, and because I don't think parliament is going to vote for Revoke without the democratic fig-leaf cover of a referendum, it looks to me as though this is heading towards a Revoke/Deal referendum.
The main obstacles to this are whether the EU agrees to a delay, and whether the government can actually survive long enough to get a referendum off the ground.
Keep buying in the popcorn.
Lock Erg up.
Either way if we stay in the EU our party is finished.
...And, as well as the ERG there is the DUP!
Monmouth
Just sayin’