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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Betting opinion moves sharply against TMay’s chances of gettin

SystemSystem Posts: 12,172
edited March 2019 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Betting opinion moves sharply against TMay’s chances of getting her deal through

The past 24 hours on the "when will the Betfair Commons pass" the vote market@betdatapolitics pic.twitter.com/4wzQAggTTw

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414
    First. Unlike TM s latest wheeze.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675
    Cox!
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,687
    I wonder how Peter Goldsmith feels today?
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Gweeve up now up - Cox thinks he's wrong.

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,687
    https://twitter.com/shippersunbound/status/1105451163661598721?s=21
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    PB’s 6,666th thread on Vanilla. Nice.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414
    This is bizarre legal argument prior to the most important political vote since Iraq at least.
    None of this is relevant in any meaningful sense.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    FPT:
    rottenborough said:

    david_herdson said:

    Anorak said:

    brokenwheel said:

    Anorak said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    brendan16 said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    rottenborough said:

    ERG will split. Question is how many diehards?

    Why? DUP are against, enough ERGers are against. This is dead. Why vote in favour.

    Expect 400+ Nays again. There's more life in John Cleese's Norwegian Blue.
    Because a bad Brexit is better than no Brexit at all?
    No its not. No deal is better than a bad deal and no Brexit is better than a bad Brexit.

    But its moot. The deal is dead. It won't win. Once its clear it won't win, why compromise on your principles and back a dead deal futilely given it won't win even if you do?
    Because a loss by 200 would bring down the government, whereas a loss by 60 would not?
    You mean like it brought down the government last time?
    I think you're misreading how febrile the situation is.
    I agree. It is possible - and I'm not necessarily predicting this as a scenario - that more Con MPs could jump ship to TIG if it looked like the ERG were trying to engineer a No Deal, and that they would prefer to ensure an A50 extension through whatever means necessary than be complicit in No Deal.
    I thought HoC would be voting tomorrow on No Deal? And there was no way that vote would be lost i.e. No Deal off the table and extension.

    Why do these Tories need to join TIG to do that?
    Yep. If anything a narrow defeat would be seen by May as license to continue her game of chicken, which increases the chance of no deal (especially if we get a short extension, as we'd be unlikely to then get another). That could then force Remain-/soft Brexit-leaning Tories to move against her.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,217
    edited March 2019
    I wonder if the extension vote will pass, and then the EU will come back to us saying we will grant an extension only for a new referendum. May comes back, the 2nd referendum vote is shot down and then the deal goes up for one final go against no deal ?
  • SeanTSeanT Posts: 549
    Shall we just have a civil war? I think that’s the last option left. Take it outside, like men.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    Pulpstar said:

    I wonder if the extension vote will pass, and then the EU will come back to us saying we will grant an extension only for a new referendum. May comes back, the 2nd referendum vote is shot down and then the deal goes up for one final go against no deal ?

    Isn’t the extension vote tomorrow? One wonders if May will survive the night.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675
    SeanT said:

    Shall we just have a civil war? I think that’s the last option left. Take it outside, like men.

    You won't last long Sean.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,872
    Cox is really very good. Not sure it’s going to be enough but the respect from all sides of the House is palpable.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,469
    Dodds standing up...
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,687
    Just an FYI.

    Mike’s busy tonight and I’m your editor for the evening.

    As we all know things are quiet when I’m in the hot seat.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    SeanT said:

    Shall we just have a civil war? I think that’s the last option left. Take it outside, like men.

    That would be unsportsmanlike since the brexit enthusiasts are mostly getting on a bit. Darts?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,687
    https://twitter.com/johnestevens/status/1105434834292359169?s=21
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176
    edited March 2019
    Pulpstar said:

    I wonder if the extension vote will pass, and then the EU will come back to us saying we will grant an extension only for a new referendum. May comes back, the 2nd referendum vote is shot down and then the deal goes up for one final go against no deal ?

    But won't MPs have voted against No Deal? And, unlike the people voting against Remain, they'll argue they shouldn't have to vote on No Deal again.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    edited March 2019
    Stereotomy said:


    Yep. If anything a narrow defeat would be seen by May as license to continue her game of chicken, which increases the chance of no deal (especially if we get a short extension, as we'd be unlikely to then get another). That could then force Remain-/soft Brexit-leaning Tories to move against her.

    So - what threshold is needed to keep trying? 202 ayes last time. Looks like 240-280 this time.

    Seems it'd need the very upper end of that. I suppose the govt could talk up 202>280, then the final push is much less of a leap. But even then the last holdouts are going to be near impossible, the DUP and the final 20 foamers.
  • SeanTSeanT Posts: 549
    edmundintokyo said:

    SeanT said:

    Shall we just have a civil war? I think that’s the last option left. Take it outside, like men.

    That would be unsportsmanlike since the brexit enthusiasts are mostly getting on a bit. Darts?
    Young people tended somewhat to Remain but the young Remainers are all hipster snowflakes with manginas, whereas the Leavers are hardnut council kids from Sunderland who’d give them a total shoeing.

    Walkover for Leave.

  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1105454944390447107
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414
    Jonathan said:

    SeanT said:

    Shall we just have a civil war? I think that’s the last option left. Take it outside, like men.

    You won't last long Sean.
    He will. He's in Nepal!
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,888
    Geoffrey Cox's deep, booming voice :)
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    dixiedean said:

    Jonathan said:

    SeanT said:

    Shall we just have a civil war? I think that’s the last option left. Take it outside, like men.

    You won't last long Sean.
    He will. He's in Nepal!
    Best place from which to direct the battles. ;)
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,888
    Gallowgate said:

    Dodds standing up...

    Hoey sitting behind him next to Lady Hermon
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Geoffrey Cox's deep, booming voice :)

    Class act. Could do with another 649 of him in parly.

  • SeanTSeanT Posts: 549
    Jonathan said:

    SeanT said:

    Shall we just have a civil war? I think that’s the last option left. Take it outside, like men.

    You won't last long Sean.
    I rather fancy myself as the Leaver d’Annunzio, flying a biplane over Brighton, hand-dropping petards.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675
    dixiedean said:

    Jonathan said:

    SeanT said:

    Shall we just have a civil war? I think that’s the last option left. Take it outside, like men.

    You won't last long Sean.
    He will. He's in Nepal!
    Already in exile.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,712
    Be careful looking at Wiki poll listing - someone has put up a one year old Survation poll showing a Lab lead of 7%.

    (Click on link and you get 2018, not 2019!)
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,217
    tlg86 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I wonder if the extension vote will pass, and then the EU will come back to us saying we will grant an extension only for a new referendum. May comes back, the 2nd referendum vote is shot down and then the deal goes up for one final go against no deal ?

    But won't MPs have voted against No Deal? And, unlike the people voting against Remain, they'll argue they shouldn't have to vote on No Deal again.
    Hmm, but hasn't a customs union must have been voted on 6 times at least ?
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,773
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1105454944390447107

    The die is cast.

    It will be no Brexit, and the Tories will fracture and break.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    MikeL said:

    Be careful looking at Wiki poll listing - someone has put up a one year old Survation poll showing a Lab lead of 7%.

    (Click on link and you get 2018, not 2019!)

    The halcyon days :'(
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176
    Pulpstar said:

    tlg86 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I wonder if the extension vote will pass, and then the EU will come back to us saying we will grant an extension only for a new referendum. May comes back, the 2nd referendum vote is shot down and then the deal goes up for one final go against no deal ?

    But won't MPs have voted against No Deal? And, unlike the people voting against Remain, they'll argue they shouldn't have to vote on No Deal again.
    Hmm, but hasn't a customs union must have been voted on 6 times at least ?
    Yes, remainers are hypocrites. Who knew?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,244
    Thumbs down from Sir Bill Cash! He's hanging tough.

    Has not spent his entire political life fighting for the UK to leave the EU just in order to vote for a deal that takes the UK out of the EU.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,872
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/johnestevens/status/1105434834292359169?s=21

    Quiet day then.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    edited March 2019
    Spread now back up to 253-263. I don't really see why TBH. We're seeing precious little sign of movement amongst MPs compared with last time.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    We had a few hours optimism that a resolution was in sight. Now the zombie deal is dead again. What a ride.

    What a waste of time 3 months has been.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1105456515404705794 ]
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    edited March 2019
    DavidL said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/johnestevens/status/1105434834292359169?s=21

    Quiet day then.
    Is OGH away tomorrow, too?
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Spread now back up to 253-263. I don't really see why TBH. We're seeing precious little sign of movement amongst MPs compared with last time.

    Watching Cox perhaps. Was a great session until that nugget Creasey stood up.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414
    So if Cox is really "marking his own homework", would could do better be written at the bottom?
  • SeanTSeanT Posts: 549
    dixiedean said:

    Jonathan said:

    SeanT said:

    Shall we just have a civil war? I think that’s the last option left. Take it outside, like men.

    You won't last long Sean.
    He will. He's in Nepal!
    Back in Bangkok, actually. The sun broils, the curries are hot, the ladyboys parade. I love these tropical evenings. The curve of the moon looks like a fallen platinum eyelash, a Halloween pumpkin smile, a shaving of gold from God’s workbench. The skyscrapers glitter, like surgical steel.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,872
    TGOHF said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Spread now back up to 253-263. I don't really see why TBH. We're seeing precious little sign of movement amongst MPs compared with last time.

    Watching Cox perhaps. Was a great session until that nugget Creasey stood up.
    Been a while since I have seen anyone dominating the House quite like this.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,653
    edited March 2019
    If I am caught in the act of committing a crime in front of dozens of witnesses with a smoking gun in my hand I want Geoffrey Cox to defend me.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Slurrby now up -calls Cox "the attourney".

  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Spread now back up to 253-263. I don't really see why TBH. We're seeing precious little sign of movement amongst MPs compared with last time.

    Two more MPs have changed sides Mark Pritchard and John Lamont. But I agree. 215-220 is my guess right now.:
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,135
    SeanT said:

    edmundintokyo said:

    SeanT said:

    Shall we just have a civil war? I think that’s the last option left. Take it outside, like men.

    That would be unsportsmanlike since the brexit enthusiasts are mostly getting on a bit. Darts?
    Young people tended somewhat to Remain but the young Remainers are all hipster snowflakes with manginas, whereas the Leavers are hardnut council kids from Sunderland who’d give them a total shoeing.

    Walkover for Leave.

    Although Goodwin divides Leavers into three tribes (the poor, the retireds, wealthy social Conservatives), I think its true that the biggest single indicator of Leaverism is age. Therefore a representative sample of Remainers would beat one of Leavers in a fistfight/knifefight because of their greater age and limited movement. However, if we consider access to wealth, the presence of superwealthy Leavers may imply access to exotic weaponry or mercenaries. In that scenario Leave would win.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,872
    SeanT said:

    dixiedean said:

    Jonathan said:

    SeanT said:

    Shall we just have a civil war? I think that’s the last option left. Take it outside, like men.

    You won't last long Sean.
    He will. He's in Nepal!
    Back in Bangkok, actually. The sun broils, the curries are hot, the ladyboys parade. I love these tropical evenings. The curve of the moon looks like a fallen platinum eyelash, a Halloween pumpkin smile, a shaving of gold from God’s workbench. The skyscrapers glitter, like surgical steel.
    Nice.
  • SeanTSeanT Posts: 549
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Spread now back up to 253-263. I don't really see why TBH. We're seeing precious little sign of movement amongst MPs compared with last time.

    Hope-betting?

    Maybe the markets think MPs are lying cowards who will secretly vote YES. If so, I suspect the markets are wrong, at least as regards the YES-voting. The deal falls.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,167
    edited March 2019
    Is today the day 'that Brexit died' to misquote American pie?

    We know if the Deal fails tonight the Commons will overwhelmingly reject No Deal tomorrow and vote for extension of Article 59 on Thursday, the EU will likely demand Remain v Deal referendum ad its price, the Commons will agree to avoid No Deal and Remain likely would win it now
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    edited March 2019
    https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/1105456654022332417?s=20
  • SeanTSeanT Posts: 549
    HYUFD said:

    Is today the day 'that Brexit died' to misquote American pie?

    We know if the Deal fails tonight the Commons will overwhelmingly reject No Deal tomorrow and vote for extension of Article 59 on Thursday, the EU will likely demand Remain v Deal referendum ad its price, the Commons will agree to avoid No Deal and Remain likely would win it now

    I’m confused, here on soi Nana, Sukhumvit Road. Are we still sure there will be a No Deal vote tomorrow? Didn’t TMay threaten to pull that or something?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,167
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/shippersunbound/status/1105451163661598721?s=21

    Indeed, Cox may be a good lawyer but he is no politician
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,164
    OT - I'd be happy with a Referendum now or an alternative softer Brexit deal. I su.spect the die is now cast for a referendum on a united Ireland which would be a just reward for the DUP/ERG. I still think there is also a goodish chance of No Brexit. Indeed the least likely option now is No deal - another just reward for the diehards.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    I'm glad I don't have these headbangers as clients - their attitude to risk would be hard to score... willing to risk UK economy, jobs, growth, smaller role in the world etc (see Remainers list of risks) but not willing to accept a legal potential scenario whilst still achieving their objective return otherwise.

    Does my head in.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,814
    Good afternoon, everyone.

    Been AFK for most of the day. Mildly regretting not backing the 3.25 on 200-249 MPs backing the deal, but there we are.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    https://twitter.com/dannihewson/status/1105458620743991296?s=20
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414
    viewcode said:

    SeanT said:

    edmundintokyo said:

    SeanT said:

    Shall we just have a civil war? I think that’s the last option left. Take it outside, like men.

    That would be unsportsmanlike since the brexit enthusiasts are mostly getting on a bit. Darts?
    Young people tended somewhat to Remain but the young Remainers are all hipster snowflakes with manginas, whereas the Leavers are hardnut council kids from Sunderland who’d give them a total shoeing.

    Walkover for Leave.

    Although Goodwin divides Leavers into three tribes (the poor, the retireds, wealthy social Conservatives), I think its true that the biggest single indicator of Leaverism is age. Therefore a representative sample of Remainers would beat one of Leavers in a fistfight/knifefight because of their greater age and limited movement. However, if we consider access to wealth, the presence of superwealthy Leavers may imply access to exotic weaponry or mercenaries. In that scenario Leave would win.
    However. Were assymetric warfare to occur, as probably likely, 2 good places for guerrillas to hold out would be big cities and the Highlands. Both Remain redoubts...
    ...I can't believe we are discussing this semi-seriously....
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,217
    AlastairMeeks said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Spread now back up to 253-263. I don't really see why TBH. We're seeing precious little sign of movement amongst MPs compared with last time.

    Two more MPs have changed sides Mark Pritchard and John Lamont. But I agree. 215-220 is my guess right now.:
    I've sold the Ayes at 248 for £3 a vote.
  • tottenhamWCtottenhamWC Posts: 352
    HYUFD said:

    Is today the day 'that Brexit died' to misquote American pie?

    We know if the Deal fails tonight the Commons will overwhelmingly reject No Deal tomorrow and vote for extension of Article 59 on Thursday, the EU will likely demand Remain v Deal referendum ad its price, the Commons will agree to avoid No Deal and Remain likely would win it now

    Agree - this is how Blair probably advised Macron to play it too....
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,135
    SeanT said:

    dixiedean said:

    Jonathan said:

    SeanT said:

    Shall we just have a civil war? I think that’s the last option left. Take it outside, like men.

    You won't last long Sean.
    He will. He's in Nepal!
    Back in Bangkok, actually. The sun broils, the curries are hot, the ladyboys parade. I love these tropical evenings. The curve of the moon looks like a fallen platinum eyelash, a Halloween pumpkin smile, a shaving of gold from God’s workbench. The skyscrapers glitter, like surgical steel.
    Platinum, gold, steel, shavings, surgical steel. Everything is bright, shiny and glittering. Pause. You're on MDMA again, aren't you... :)
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    Slackbladder said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1105454944390447107

    The die is cast.

    It will be no Brexit, and the Tories will fracture and break.
    Yes. They had the chance to Brexit and dont want it.

    When will the official break happen? A couple months into no deal or when the commons approves a referendum and we remain?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1105459390956662784
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    kle4 said:

    We had a few hours optimism that a resolution was in sight. Now the zombie deal is dead again. What a ride.

    What a waste of time 3 months has been.

    15 months. This was set in stone in December 2018.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    SeanT said:

    edmundintokyo said:

    SeanT said:

    Shall we just have a civil war? I think that’s the last option left. Take it outside, like men.

    That would be unsportsmanlike since the brexit enthusiasts are mostly getting on a bit. Darts?
    Young people tended somewhat to Remain but the young Remainers are all hipster snowflakes with manginas, whereas the Leavers are hardnut council kids from Sunderland who’d give them a total shoeing.

    Walkover for Leave.

    Except that, like the Confederacy, their economy will collapse.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,653
    SeanT said:

    edmundintokyo said:

    SeanT said:

    Shall we just have a civil war? I think that’s the last option left. Take it outside, like men.

    That would be unsportsmanlike since the brexit enthusiasts are mostly getting on a bit. Darts?
    Young people tended somewhat to Remain but the young Remainers are all hipster snowflakes with manginas, whereas the Leavers are hardnut council kids from Sunderland who’d give them a total shoeing.

    Walkover for Leave.

    I am not so sure. There’s the Glasgow Neds and the Provos to throw in for Remain.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    dixiedean said:

    viewcode said:

    SeanT said:

    edmundintokyo said:

    SeanT said:

    Shall we just have a civil war? I think that’s the last option left. Take it outside, like men.

    That would be unsportsmanlike since the brexit enthusiasts are mostly getting on a bit. Darts?
    Young people tended somewhat to Remain but the young Remainers are all hipster snowflakes with manginas, whereas the Leavers are hardnut council kids from Sunderland who’d give them a total shoeing.

    Walkover for Leave.

    Although Goodwin divides Leavers into three tribes (the poor, the retireds, wealthy social Conservatives), I think its true that the biggest single indicator of Leaverism is age. Therefore a representative sample of Remainers would beat one of Leavers in a fistfight/knifefight because of their greater age and limited movement. However, if we consider access to wealth, the presence of superwealthy Leavers may imply access to exotic weaponry or mercenaries. In that scenario Leave would win.
    However. Were assymetric warfare to occur, as probably likely, 2 good places for guerrillas to hold out would be big cities and the Highlands. Both Remain redoubts...
    ...I can't believe we are discussing this semi-seriously....
    Convenient for the Leave generals that remainers are concentrated in a few areas.... :p
  • SeanTSeanT Posts: 549
    felix said:

    OT - I'd be happy with a Referendum now or an alternative softer Brexit deal. I su.spect the die is now cast for a referendum on a united Ireland which would be a just reward for the DUP/ERG. I still think there is also a goodish chance of No Brexit. Indeed the least likely option now is No deal - another just reward for the diehards.

    If there is no Brexit or a very soft Brexit why on earth would a united Ireland be more likely? We’d be staying in the Single Market and CU, so there would be no hard border. And after the Brexit experience, I don’t think anyone in these isles will be in the mood for another wrenching referendum anytime soon. The same, I think, applies in Scotland.

    No Deal IS a direct threat to the Union, though the chaos and turmoil would make any vote quite hard to call.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    https://twitter.com/SkyNewsBreak/status/1105459312917389314
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1105454944390447107

    How quick from potential triumph to political end. I hope she's packed her thi gs ready to move out.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976
    edited March 2019
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Spread now back up to 253-263. I don't really see why TBH. We're seeing precious little sign of movement amongst MPs compared with last time.

    Don't jinx it; I'm having huge fun making small amounts of money every time it bounces around. Have now cashed out twice at one point away from local extrema.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    tottenhamWC said:

    HYUFD said:

    Is today the day 'that Brexit died' to misquote American pie?

    We know if the Deal fails tonight the Commons will overwhelmingly reject No Deal tomorrow and vote for extension of Article 59 on Thursday, the EU will likely demand Remain v Deal referendum ad its price, the Commons will agree to avoid No Deal and Remain likely would win it now

    Agree - this is how Blair probably advised Macron to play it too....
    https://twitter.com/RSAMatthew/status/1105457278633865216
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    edited March 2019
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1105459390956662784

    They are going to field candidates? Brave.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,057
    SeanT said:



    Back in Bangkok, actually. The sun broils, the curries are hot, the ladyboys parade. I love these tropical evenings. The curve of the moon looks like a fallen platinum eyelash, a Halloween pumpkin smile, a shaving of gold from God’s workbench. The skyscrapers glitter, like surgical steel.

    My condolences. Bangkok is a sprawling, grimy, polluted shithole, though better than Jakarta or Manila. Head to the islands or Ayyuthaya instead. Much nicer.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1105454944390447107

    How quick from potential triumph to political end. I hope she's packed her thi gs ready to move out.
    No, it seems she plans to cling on:

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1105459390956662784
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,815
    HYUFD said:

    Is today the day 'that Brexit died' to misquote American pie?

    We know if the Deal fails tonight the Commons will overwhelmingly reject No Deal tomorrow and vote for extension of Article 59 on Thursday, the EU will likely demand Remain v Deal referendum ad its price, the Commons will agree to avoid No Deal and Remain likely would win it now

    I voted remain and was very firmly of the opinion that the referendum result should be implemented. But given what an almighty mess the Brexiteers have made of everything I’m tempted to say sod it, let’s have a second vote now. They’ve had their chance.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,146
    CarlottaVance said:

    https://twitter.com/dannihewson/status/1105458620743991296?s=20

    Boeing have 400 737 - 8 in service and 5000 on order

    They have a very serious problem but I for one would not fly on one especially with my grand children

  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414
    Boeing 737 banned from UK airspace.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited March 2019
    rottenborough said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1105454944390447107

    How quick from potential triumph to political end. I hope she's packed her thi gs ready to move out.
    No, it seems she plans to cling on:

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1105459390956662784
    LOL, as much as I know you agree with Mr Hodges' opinions, you don't really take him seriously as an "inside source", do you? :D
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    Fishing said:

    SeanT said:



    Back in Bangkok, actually. The sun broils, the curries are hot, the ladyboys parade. I love these tropical evenings. The curve of the moon looks like a fallen platinum eyelash, a Halloween pumpkin smile, a shaving of gold from God’s workbench. The skyscrapers glitter, like surgical steel.

    My condolences. Bangkok is a sprawling, grimy, polluted shithole, though better than Jakarta or Manila. Head to the islands or Ayyuthaya instead. Much nicer.
    Those adjectives probably only apply when you are sober. :lol:
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,384
    kinabalu said:

    Thumbs down from Sir Bill Cash! He's hanging tough.

    Has not spent his entire political life fighting for the UK to leave the EU just in order to vote for a deal that takes the UK out of the EU.

    A bit like Dobby in Harry Potter who bargained long and hard against actually being paid by Dumbledore.

    Still, look at it this way. If Brexit is stopped, only a minority of people like me will be unhappy. Remainers will obviously be happy, and the ERG will be ecstatic.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414
    SouthamObserver said:

    SeanT said:

    edmundintokyo said:

    SeanT said:

    Shall we just have a civil war? I think that’s the last option left. Take it outside, like men.

    That would be unsportsmanlike since the brexit enthusiasts are mostly getting on a bit. Darts?
    Young people tended somewhat to Remain but the young Remainers are all hipster snowflakes with manginas, whereas the Leavers are hardnut council kids from Sunderland who’d give them a total shoeing.

    Walkover for Leave.

    I am not so sure. There’s the Glasgow Neds and the Provos to throw in for Remain.
    Scouse battalion as well, la.
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    Slackbladder said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1105454944390447107

    The die is cast.

    It will be no Brexit, and the Tories will fracture and break.
    I guess we’re going to find out whether May puts preserving the Conservative Party first or preserving the Union.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    RobD said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1105459390956662784

    They are going to field candidates? Brave.
    I suspect a deliberate leak/rumour from No.10 in order to try and pull in a few more votes. If there are to be EU votes, then means extension past June.
  • TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,878
    RobD said:

    PB’s 6,666th thread on Vanilla. Nice.

    It's been that for quite some time.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    IanB2 said:

    SeanT said:

    edmundintokyo said:

    SeanT said:

    Shall we just have a civil war? I think that’s the last option left. Take it outside, like men.

    That would be unsportsmanlike since the brexit enthusiasts are mostly getting on a bit. Darts?
    Young people tended somewhat to Remain but the young Remainers are all hipster snowflakes with manginas, whereas the Leavers are hardnut council kids from Sunderland who’d give them a total shoeing.

    Walkover for Leave.

    Except that, like the Confederacy, their economy will collapse.
    Leave is bankrolled by the Russians. Or had you forgotten? :D
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,167
    https://twitter.com/SirSocks/status/1105438537023975424?s=20
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,247
    Cox confirming for the headbangers that it would be perfectly possible for a headbanger government to resile from the treaty.
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    If I recall correctly, the 2014 European elections were the first national elections since 18something when the Tories came third.

    They would be doing extremely well to reach that level if we send MEPs to the next European Parliament.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,135
    dixiedean said:

    viewcode said:

    SeanT said:

    edmundintokyo said:

    SeanT said:

    Shall we just have a civil war? I think that’s the last option left. Take it outside, like men.

    That would be unsportsmanlike since the brexit enthusiasts are mostly getting on a bit. Darts?
    Young people tended somewhat to Remain but the young Remainers are all hipster snowflakes with manginas, whereas the Leavers are hardnut council kids from Sunderland who’d give them a total shoeing.

    Walkover for Leave.

    Although Goodwin divides Leavers into three tribes (the poor, the retireds, wealthy social Conservatives), I think its true that the biggest single indicator of Leaverism is age. Therefore a representative sample of Remainers would beat one of Leavers in a fistfight/knifefight because of their greater age and limited movement. However, if we consider access to wealth, the presence of superwealthy Leavers may imply access to exotic weaponry or mercenaries. In that scenario Leave would win.
    However. Were assymetric warfare to occur, as probably likely, 2 good places for guerrillas to hold out would be big cities and the Highlands. Both Remain redoubts...
    ...I can't believe we are discussing this semi-seriously....
    Germany (Heckler and Koch), Italy (Berreta) and Austria (Glock) are manufacturers of firearms. In a no-deal brexit, lorries will be waved thru customs unchecked. How many sub machine guns or semi-automatics would you like...? :)
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,888
    SeanT said:

    dixiedean said:

    Jonathan said:

    SeanT said:

    Shall we just have a civil war? I think that’s the last option left. Take it outside, like men.

    You won't last long Sean.
    He will. He's in Nepal!
    Back in Bangkok, actually. The sun broils, the curries are hot, the ladyboys parade. I love these tropical evenings. The curve of the moon looks like a fallen platinum eyelash, a Halloween pumpkin smile, a shaving of gold from God’s workbench. The skyscrapers glitter, like surgical steel.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rgc_LRjlbTU
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,167
    rpjs said:

    Slackbladder said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1105454944390447107

    The die is cast.

    It will be no Brexit, and the Tories will fracture and break.
    I guess we’re going to find out whether May puts preserving the Conservative Party first or preserving the Union.
    May will put the Union first, in any case there is a majority in the Commons for extension and BINO or EUref2 over No Deal so she has little choice, plus May knows she will not fight another election, Boris can do that, let him win back Leavers
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,146
    dixiedean said:

    Boeing 737 banned from UK airspace.

    Not all 737 just the Max version
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    Seriously why cant they just vote now?
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    https://twitter.com/dannihewson/status/1105458620743991296?s=20

    Boeing have 400 737 - 8 in service and 5000 on order

    They have a very serious problem but I for one would not fly on one especially with my grand children

    Where are those 400 located / owned ?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,167
    SeanT said:

    HYUFD said:

    Is today the day 'that Brexit died' to misquote American pie?

    We know if the Deal fails tonight the Commons will overwhelmingly reject No Deal tomorrow and vote for extension of Article 59 on Thursday, the EU will likely demand Remain v Deal referendum ad its price, the Commons will agree to avoid No Deal and Remain likely would win it now

    I’m confused, here on soi Nana, Sukhumvit Road. Are we still sure there will be a No Deal vote tomorrow? Didn’t TMay threaten to pull that or something?
    Still on I believe
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    RobD said:

    IanB2 said:

    SeanT said:

    edmundintokyo said:

    SeanT said:

    Shall we just have a civil war? I think that’s the last option left. Take it outside, like men.

    That would be unsportsmanlike since the brexit enthusiasts are mostly getting on a bit. Darts?
    Young people tended somewhat to Remain but the young Remainers are all hipster snowflakes with manginas, whereas the Leavers are hardnut council kids from Sunderland who’d give them a total shoeing.

    Walkover for Leave.

    Except that, like the Confederacy, their economy will collapse.
    Leave is bankrolled by the Russians. Or had you forgotten? :D
    Reading 'Rule Britannia' at moment. Some very interesting facts. Only 1/3 of under 25s voted in the referendum. Most sat it out.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,217
    viewcode said:


    Germany (Heckler and Koch), Italy (Berreta) and Austria (Glock) are manufacturers of firearms. In a no-deal brexit, lorries will be waved thru customs unchecked. How many sub machine guns or semi-automatics would you like...? :)

    What do we do at the moment ?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,872
    kle4 said:

    Seriously why cant they just vote now?

    Yep. More talking is superfluous and repetitious.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414
    Charles Walker MP calling for a GE if the vote goes down.
This discussion has been closed.