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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Betting opinion moves sharply against TMay’s chances of gettin

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  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    AndyJS said:
    Good lord, is that a genuine Ian Dunt tweet? Without a single swear word?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936

    Interesting line from the PM:

    Voting for an extension does not solve the problems the government faces. The EU will want to know if the UK wants to revoke article 50 or if it wants a referendum. Those are choices the house must now face.

    Is that a hint that the government will offer the House those two options? She's right on the substantive point, of course.

    Wasn't there a suggestion a few months ago of doing votes on various combinations of deal vs. remain, deal vs. referendum etc. to test the mood of the house?
  • May in full Headteacher mode now.

    As the husband of a headteacher I demand you withdraw that slur.

    If May were a headteacher, her school would be in special measures and would be forcibly taken over by an academy chain. You know, a large organisation that groups together several individual institutions within one overarching management, on occasion criticised for being remote and unresponsive, but it does at least bail out the institutions and stop them going embarrassingly tits-up.

    Nope, the parallels escape me.
    Full disclosure: I'm a school leader.

    It did put me in mind of the speech to staff on an INSET day in September following a poor set of Key Stage 4 outcomes, in the year a full OFSTED inspection is expected.

  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868
    Floater said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    This is completely delusional.

    Yes completely. Putting forth a rejected deal without changes was completely delusional.
    I think we just have to give up and accept that we are not leaving. This displacement activity is tiresome.
    What do you think that does to the tory party?

    We're done as a political force. The ERG have destroyed our party today. It's coming up to "cancel the direct debit" time for me.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,676

    Interesting line from the PM:

    Voting for an extension does not solve the problems the government faces. The EU will want to know if the UK wants to revoke article 50 or if it wants a referendum. Those are choices the house must now face.

    Is that a hint that the government will offer the House those two options? She's right on the substantive point, of course.

    The Kyle amendment is perfect for her. She should have gone for that.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    "EU doesn't know what it could do" - it could compromise on the backstop! If we go no deal there is no backstop.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,580

    A free vote on the Tory side means 'no deal' is going to get rejected by some humongous margin. The key thing then will be the amendments on the extension, which I expect will include various possible durations, but the EU are now in control of the process.

    Again the No Deal vote is utterly meaningless. The only vote that natters at this point is the extension time. And once we get to the end of that if we do not pass a deal or extend again then we will leave without a deal no matter how many times Parliament votes against it.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,198

    May mentioned a referendum just now. Corbyn did not.

    Indeed, May could finally drive a stake through the ERG with a Remain v Deal referendum which MPs May well now vote for
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454

    Interesting line from the PM:

    Voting for an extension does not solve the problems the government faces. The EU will want to know if the UK wants to revoke article 50 or if it wants a referendum. Those are choices the house must now face.

    Is that a hint that the government will offer the House those two options? She's right on the substantive point, of course.

    What's "a referendum" though? Remain v Leave (whatever that is)? Remain v No Deal? Remain v Deal? Deal v No Deal? All three? What about Norway or Canada?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,500
    Floater said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    This is completely delusional.

    Yes completely. Putting forth a rejected deal without changes was completely delusional.
    I think we just have to give up and accept that we are not leaving. This displacement activity is tiresome.
    What do you think that does to the tory party?

    Like thousands of others I really don't care if it falls into the dustbin of history. Along with Ozymandias.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426

    So how many Cabinet ministers on each side of the no deal vote?

    I'm betting that Hunt and Javid will vote in both lobbies, just to make sure they appeal to each wing of the party. (Yes, I know the clerks register that as abstaining.)
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,298
    AndyJS said:
    Yeah I thought he got it all wrong. He should have sympathised with Theresa May.
    He seemed prepped to hammer her for going back on her promise on the votes, and then couldn't readjust.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,628
    ydoethur said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    In any event, this needs to reach the 'something else' stage by Thursday night. May simply cannot be allowed to go back to the EU with a proposal to discuss the backstop some more during an extension.

    Whether an internal Tory coup, a VoNC/GE, a voluntary resignation by May or, heaven forbid, her coming up with an actual plan B, I don't too much care.

    How about the 1316 Papal Conclave solution?

    I think bricking the door up and allowing them only bread and water until they can make up what passes for their minds has a lot to recommend it at this moment.
    How about bricking the door up and not allowing them the bread and water :wink:
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,631

    So how many Cabinet ministers on each side of the no deal vote?

    That's why it's a free vote - a whip on either side would have seen dozens of resignations!
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,742
    Fortunately NewsThump have a screening test for new negotiators:


    https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/1105211895777292288?s=19
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,239
    edited March 2019
    Three lines on my whip
    Couldn't stem the bleeding
    80 noes from ERG
    Stopped May's deal succeeding

    We're staying in, we're staying in, we're staying
    Britain's staying in...
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    Scott_P said:
    It's good to know it's not just our lot that are useless.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    Floater said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    This is completely delusional.

    Yes completely. Putting forth a rejected deal without changes was completely delusional.
    I think we just have to give up and accept that we are not leaving. This displacement activity is tiresome.
    What do you think that does to the tory party?

    Who cares? They are finished and completely unfit to govern.
    The priceless irony of Corbyn's election in 2015 was that it came about because Labour members were convinced they couldn't win and so fancied ideological purity for a bit.

    If they had compromised and gone for centrism, they'd be back in power by now. As it is we have a useless government and a useless and vile opposition.
    That last sentence sums it up.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,198
    edited March 2019

    HYUFD said:

    Sigh. No it really isn't. What will be surrender is ending up staying in the EU because the headbangers were unwilling to compromise on anything but the purists of Brexits.

    The deal without a backstop still wouldn't have been the purist of the Brexits. There were a number of other objections to the deal such as committing to spending billions without any trade agreement sorted first. However Brexiteers were willing to compromise on all their other objections so long as just one objection was resolved. The EU refused to compromise on anything.
    Sorry but bricking up the English Channel would not have been enough for some in the ERG, if they tend up with the revocation of Article 50 and no Brexit at all it will be no more than they deserve
    Sorry but that's ludicrous hyperbole. There was a vote on backing the deal if the backstop was dealt with and there were only 8 Tory headbanger MPs who opposed that. They were:

    Heidi Allen, Guto Bebb, Ken Clarke, Dominic Grieve, Phillip Lee, Anne Marie Morris, Anna Soubry, Sarah Wollaston

    Absolutely all of those are extremists but the only extremist on that list from the ERG is I believe Anne Marie Morris.
    The backstop was effectively dealt with yesterday but the fanatics still would not compromise, now they will have to find out the hard way, if they will not compromise nor will Remainers
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    rkrkrk said:

    AndyJS said:
    Yeah I thought he got it all wrong. He should have sympathised with Theresa May.
    He seemed prepped to hammer her for going back on her promise on the votes, and then couldn't readjust.
    He just isn't very bright. As I have said before, the most useless leader of the opposition since the Marquis of Granby.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936

    Three lines on my whip
    Couldn't stem the bleeding
    80 noes from ERG
    Stopped May's deal succeeding

    We're staying in, we're staying in, we're staying
    Britain's staying in...

    I doubt Britain is going to be a happy member of the EU.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,628
    We now know who in the ERG were serious about Brexit and for whom it was all about posturing.
  • tottenhamWCtottenhamWC Posts: 352
    rkrkrk said:

    AndyJS said:
    Yeah I thought he got it all wrong. He should have sympathised with Theresa May.
    He seemed prepped to hammer her for going back on her promise on the votes, and then couldn't readjust.
    If Corbyn backs away from referendum now he is toast
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    MikeL said:

    Did May say which way she will vote tomorrow?

    I think she implied she will vote against leaving without a deal.

    She should abstain
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,676
    Would the ERG and other no dealers would be well advised to abstain tomorrow to delegitimise the result?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,631

    A free vote on the Tory side means 'no deal' is going to get rejected by some humongous margin. The key thing then will be the amendments on the extension, which I expect will include various possible durations, but the EU are now in control of the process.

    Again the No Deal vote is utterly meaningless. The only vote that natters at this point is the extension time. And once we get to the end of that if we do not pass a deal or extend again then we will leave without a deal no matter how many times Parliament votes against it.
    Surely it's incredibly meaningful if it passes, as it then becomes government policy to go down that route?

    It's unlikely to, of course, with no more than 150-200 in favour of it - in which case it's a completely meaningless outcome.
  • Plaid says TM has offered deal, referendum or revoke when Corbyn witters on about his unicorn deal ignoring a referendum
  • dotsdots Posts: 615
    I was wrong. I thought ERG would recognise last chance saloon when in one. I don’t understand.

    The brexit on the table from May and Eu was a hard brexit, not a soft brexit. Brexiteers pushed it all the way to wring out every ounce of hard brexit. But then they didn’t cash in. They didn’t take the lolly. I don’t understand it. I really don’t understand how the ERG could take it all the way to get hardest brexit they are ever going to get, and not bank it. The moment to switch from poker face to walking out with the pot was there, and they didn’t take it. They are now alone at the table with no money on it. I don’t understand them.

    In this years brexit ref it’s 20 million remain, 14 million or less for leave, . It’s a long way back for brexiteers from this moment. tell me I’m wrong. If science is true and unique golden brexit generation is dying off, There may never be a way back for brexit.

    Brexit was hard won. It was there on the table for them to walk off with and they didn’t take it. I don’t understand.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,198

    A free vote on the Tory side means 'no deal' is going to get rejected by some humongous margin. The key thing then will be the amendments on the extension, which I expect will include various possible durations, but the EU are now in control of the process.

    Again the No Deal vote is utterly meaningless. The only vote that natters at this point is the extension time. And once we get to the end of that if we do not pass a deal or extend again then we will leave without a deal no matter how many times Parliament votes against it.
    Nope the Commons will vote for an extension and ultimately a Remain v Deal referendum over No Deal that is what tomorrow's vote proves, Brexit will be on life support by this time tomorrow night
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900

    Interesting line from the PM:

    Voting for an extension does not solve the problems the government faces. The EU will want to know if the UK wants to revoke article 50 or if it wants a referendum. Those are choices the house must now face.

    First time May has suggested revoking as a possibility.

    Congratulations, ERG.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426

    rkrkrk said:

    AndyJS said:
    Yeah I thought he got it all wrong. He should have sympathised with Theresa May.
    He seemed prepped to hammer her for going back on her promise on the votes, and then couldn't readjust.
    If Corbyn backs away from referendum now he is toast
    So some good would come of this?
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,591
    Sandpit said:

    So how many Cabinet ministers on each side of the no deal vote?

    That's why it's a free vote - a whip on either side would have seen dozens of resignations!
    A free vote on the most important issue facing the country today is the ultimate abdication of responsibility on the part of the Tories. It becomes much harder to see how they can survive.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,742
    edited March 2019

    Interesting line from the PM:

    Voting for an extension does not solve the problems the government faces. The EU will want to know if the UK wants to revoke article 50 or if it wants a referendum. Those are choices the house must now face.

    Is that a hint that the government will offer the House those two options? She's right on the substantive point, of course.

    First sensible thing that she has said in months, possibly longer.

    Is @dots available for his insights?

    Edit: I see he is! credit to him/her/preferred personal pronoun.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,065

    A free vote on the Tory side means 'no deal' is going to get rejected by some humongous margin. The key thing then will be the amendments on the extension, which I expect will include various possible durations, but the EU are now in control of the process.

    The EU have been in control of the process since May took over.
    The EU is stable and backed by 27 countries, the UK government has been totally chaotic throughout. Of course the EU have been in control from the start.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,198
    Jonathan said:

    Would the ERG and other no dealers would be well advised to abstain tomorrow to delegitimise the result?

    Irrelevant how can you deligitimise at least 400 MPs voting against No Deal?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936

    Sandpit said:

    So how many Cabinet ministers on each side of the no deal vote?

    That's why it's a free vote - a whip on either side would have seen dozens of resignations!
    A free vote on the most important issue facing the country today is the ultimate abdication of responsibility on the part of the Tories. It becomes much harder to see how they can survive.
    Surely such a vote shouldn't be whipped. If it's so important people should vote on what they think is right, not what the whip tells them is right.
  • tottenhamWCtottenhamWC Posts: 352

    Plaid says TM has offered deal, referendum or revoke when Corbyn witters on about his unicorn deal ignoring a referendum

    Some achievement if Corbyn rains on remainers who then actually support May instead.....
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,279

    Floater said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    This is completely delusional.

    Yes completely. Putting forth a rejected deal without changes was completely delusional.
    I think we just have to give up and accept that we are not leaving. This displacement activity is tiresome.
    What do you think that does to the tory party?

    Like thousands of others I really don't care if it falls into the dustbin of history. Along with Ozymandias.
    Look upon my clusterfuck, ye voters, and despair.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,198
    Andrew Neil tells Mogg 'Will historians look back on tonight as the night you lost Brexit'
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,676
    Can the ERG etc filibusters removing no deal or changing the date in Brexit legislation? Genuine question. They will need to talk it out for about a week.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,628

    I am genuinely stunned. The ERG are morons. Utter morons.

    Quite a few of us have been pointing that out for quite a few weeks.

    I can imagine it might be hard for a leftie to realise how unfit for purpose the Conservatives are just as it might be hard for a rightie to understand how unfit for purpose Labour are.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,010
    RobD said:

    Three lines on my whip
    Couldn't stem the bleeding
    80 noes from ERG
    Stopped May's deal succeeding

    We're staying in, we're staying in, we're staying
    Britain's staying in...

    I doubt Britain is going to be a happy member of the EU.
    Plus ça change.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sigh. No it really isn't. What will be surrender is ending up staying in the EU because the headbangers were unwilling to compromise on anything but the purists of Brexits.

    The deal without a backstop still wouldn't have been the purist of the Brexits. There were a number of other objections to the deal such as committing to spending billions without any trade agreement sorted first. However Brexiteers were willing to compromise on all their other objections so long as just one objection was resolved. The EU refused to compromise on anything.
    Sorry but bricking up the English Channel would not have been enough for some in the ERG, if they tend up with the revocation of Article 50 and no Brexit at all it will be no more than they deserve
    Sorry but that's ludicrous hyperbole. There was a vote on backing the deal if the backstop was dealt with and there were only 8 Tory headbanger MPs who opposed that. They were:

    Heidi Allen, Guto Bebb, Ken Clarke, Dominic Grieve, Phillip Lee, Anne Marie Morris, Anna Soubry, Sarah Wollaston

    Absolutely all of those are extremists but the only extremist on that list from the ERG is I believe Anne Marie Morris.
    The backstop was effectively dealt with yesterday but the fanatics still would not compromise, now they will have to find out the hard way, if they will not compromise nor will Remainers
    Not an iota of change to the backstop was changed.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    dots said:

    Brexit was hard won. It was there on the table for them to walk off with and they didn’t take it. I don’t understand.

    Most of them are fucking idiots.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,198
    Jonathan said:

    Can the ERG etc filibusters removing no deal or changing the date in Brexit legislation? Genuine question. They will need to talk it out for about a week.

    No, as May has granted the vote
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    only a short extension possible says Elmar someone from EU
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,279
    Jonathan said:

    Would the ERG and other no dealers would be well advised to abstain tomorrow to delegitimise the result?

    The ERG would not be well advised in any circumstances.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Andrew said:

    Interesting line from the PM:

    Voting for an extension does not solve the problems the government faces. The EU will want to know if the UK wants to revoke article 50 or if it wants a referendum. Those are choices the house must now face.

    First time May has suggested revoking as a possibility.

    Congratulations, ERG.
    Eh? She's suggested No Brexit as a possibility for months?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    We now know who in the ERG were serious about Brexit and for whom it was all about posturing.

    https://twitter.com/hzeffman/status/1105554660818120704
  • Elmar Brok just said no extension beyond EU elections and TM should revoke

    EU are kings now
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,631

    Plaid says TM has offered deal, referendum or revoke when Corbyn witters on about his unicorn deal ignoring a referendum

    Some achievement if Corbyn rains on remainers who then actually support May instead.....
    On the night when the government can't pass their key policy and are in tatters, the Remain Twitter Media are all gunning for Corbyn! He really does have a good knack of annoying everyone.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,628
    tlg86 said:
    Adjacent constituencies - the heartland of Blue Labour.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sigh. No it really isn't. What will be surrender is ending up staying in the EU because the headbangers were unwilling to compromise on anything but the purists of Brexits.

    The deal without a backstop still wouldn't have been the purist of the Brexits. There were a number of other objections to the deal such as committing to spending billions without any trade agreement sorted first. However Brexiteers were willing to compromise on all their other objections so long as just one objection was resolved. The EU refused to compromise on anything.
    Sorry but bricking up the English Channel would not have been enough for some in the ERG, if they tend up with the revocation of Article 50 and no Brexit at all it will be no more than they deserve
    Sorry but that's ludicrous hyperbole. There was a vote on backing the deal if the backstop was dealt with and there were only 8 Tory headbanger MPs who opposed that. They were:

    Heidi Allen, Guto Bebb, Ken Clarke, Dominic Grieve, Phillip Lee, Anne Marie Morris, Anna Soubry, Sarah Wollaston

    Absolutely all of those are extremists but the only extremist on that list from the ERG is I believe Anne Marie Morris.
    The backstop was effectively dealt with yesterday but the fanatics still would not compromise, now they will have to find out the hard way, if they will not compromise nor will Remainers
    Did you miss the Attorney General's statement this morning? The backstop was not dealt with yesterday.

    The EU didn't compromise on the backstop, if they won't then why should we?
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Scott_P said:

    We now know who in the ERG were serious about Brexit and for whom it was all about posturing.

    https://twitter.com/hzeffman/status/1105554660818120704
    Nadine Dorries was not a surprise.
  • DruttDrutt Posts: 1,124
    Yvette Cooper and Pete Wishart (SNP) amongst others trying to goad Leadsom into promising that there will be a govt bill to rule out no deal if there's a no-no-deal vote. Leadsom playing everything with a very dead bat.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,676
    HYUFD said:

    Jonathan said:

    Can the ERG etc filibusters removing no deal or changing the date in Brexit legislation? Genuine question. They will need to talk it out for about a week.

    No, as May has granted the vote
    What if the Leavers like Leadsom resigned from the cabinet In a week or two creating a crisis in the governments mechanics? Hard to schedule legislation in time if the government is not functioning.

    Mogg looks like he has a plan. I wonder what it is.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    HYUFD said:

    Andrew Neil tells Mogg 'Will historians look back on tonight as the night you lost Brexit'

    Seems like Mogg realised this already, been trying to row back. His merry band of nutters weren't for turning though.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,279
    edited March 2019
    malcolmg said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sigh. No it really isn't. What will be surrender is ending up staying in the EU because the headbangers were unwilling to compromise on anything but the purists of Brexits.

    The deal without a backstop still wouldn't have been the purist of the Brexits. There were a number of other objections to the deal such as committing to spending billions without any trade agreement sorted first. However Brexiteers were willing to compromise on all their other objections so long as just one objection was resolved. The EU refused to compromise on anything.
    Sorry but bricking up the English Channel would not have been enough for some in the ERG, if they tend up with the revocation of Article 50 and no Brexit at all it will be no more than they deserve
    Sorry but that's ludicrous hyperbole. There was a vote on backing the deal if the backstop was dealt with and there were only 8 Tory headbanger MPs who opposed that. They were:

    Heidi Allen, Guto Bebb, Ken Clarke, Dominic Grieve, Phillip Lee, Anne Marie Morris, Anna Soubry, Sarah Wollaston

    Absolutely all of those are extremists but the only extremist on that list from the ERG is I believe Anne Marie Morris.
    The backstop was effectively dealt with yesterday but the fanatics still would not compromise, now they will have to find out the hard way, if they will not compromise nor will Remainers
    Not an iota of change to the backstop was changed.
    Perhaps not, but the fact that it would be impossible to permanently trap the UK in it against its will was very clearly demonstrated. They have quite possibly thrown away Brexit on a legal irrelevance.
  • Good grief, Richard Burgon is as thick as mince, isn't he?
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Tusk says - not anything more we can do

    Will consider a request to extend - but want a plan
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,628
    Scott_P said:

    We now know who in the ERG were serious about Brexit and for whom it was all about posturing.

    https://twitter.com/hzeffman/status/1105554660818120704
    Did Philip Davies's bit of rough vote against ?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,503

    I am genuinely stunned. The ERG are morons. Utter morons.

    Yep.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,503

    Brexit is over as remainers takeover

    I suspect the HoC will vote for a technical exit (stay in customs union and single market) or a 2nd referendum, neither of which the current administration will be able to enact.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,773

    I am genuinely stunned. The ERG are morons. Utter morons.

    Yep.
    Never, in the history of politics, can there have been a better example of 'the best being the enemy of the good'.

    Quite incredible.

    Quite predictable.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Nigelb said:

    malcolmg said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sigh. No it really isn't. What will be surrender is ending up staying in the EU because the headbangers were unwilling to compromise on anything but the purists of Brexits.

    The deal without a backstop still wouldn't have been the purist of the Brexits. There were a number of other objections to the deal such as committing to spending billions without any trade agreement sorted first. However Brexiteers were willing to compromise on all their other objections so long as just one objection was resolved. The EU refused to compromise on anything.
    Sorry but bricking up the English Channel would not have been enough for some in the ERG, if they tend up with the revocation of Article 50 and no Brexit at all it will be no more than they deserve
    Sorry but that's ludicrous hyperbole. There was a vote on backing the deal if the backstop was dealt with and there were only 8 Tory headbanger MPs who opposed that. They were:

    Heidi Allen, Guto Bebb, Ken Clarke, Dominic Grieve, Phillip Lee, Anne Marie Morris, Anna Soubry, Sarah Wollaston

    Absolutely all of those are extremists but the only extremist on that list from the ERG is I believe Anne Marie Morris.
    The backstop was effectively dealt with yesterday but the fanatics still would not compromise, now they will have to find out the hard way, if they will not compromise nor will Remainers
    Not an iota of change to the backstop was changed.
    Perhaps not, but the fact that it would be impossible to permanently trap the UK in it against its will was very clearly demonstrated. They have quite possibly thrown away Brexit on a legal irrelevance.
    No it wasn't. The final paragraph showed that was entirely possible.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362
    No need to worry about needing an IDP for my Easter holiday in Germany then.
  • tottenhamWCtottenhamWC Posts: 352

    Brexit is over as remainers takeover

    I suspect the HoC will vote for a technical exit (stay in customs union and single market) or a 2nd referendum, neither of which the current administration will be able to enact.
    What do you think happens then?
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207

    Brexit is over as remainers takeover

    I suspect the HoC will vote for a technical exit (stay in customs union and single market) or a 2nd referendum, neither of which the current administration will be able to enact.
    With the EU seemingly clear no extension beyond May.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    I am genuinely stunned. The ERG are morons. Utter morons.

    Yep.
    Never, in the history of politics, can there have been a better example of 'the best being the enemy of the good'.

    Quite incredible.

    Quite predictable.
    I don't think anyone who voted against this deal considered the backstop or the deal as a whole to be good.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,628
    So can May call a GE and then deselect every Conservative who voted against ?
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    malcolmg said:

    No need to worry about needing an IDP for my Easter holiday in Germany then.

    Which part are you visiting?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,198

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sigh. No it really isn't. What will be surrender is ending up staying in the EU because the headbangers were unwilling to compromise on anything but the purists of Brexits.

    The deal without a backstop still wouldn't have been the purist of the Brexits. There were a number of other objections to the deal such as committing to spending billions without any trade agreement sorted first. However Brexiteers were willing to compromise on all their other objections so long as just one objection was resolved. The EU refused to compromise on anything.
    Sorry but bricking up the English Channel would not have been enough for some in the ERG, if they tend up with the revocation of Article 50 and no Brexit at all it will be no more than they deserve
    Sorry but that's ludicrous hyperbole. There was a vote on backing the deal if the backstop was dealt with and there were only 8 Tory headbanger MPs who opposed that. They were:

    Heidi Allen, Guto Bebb, Ken Clarke, Dominic Grieve, Phillip Lee, Anne Marie Morris, Anna Soubry, Sarah Wollaston

    Absolutely all of those are extremists but the only extremist on that list from the ERG is I believe Anne Marie Morris.
    The backstop was effectively dealt with yesterday but the fanatics still would not compromise, now they will have to find out the hard way, if they will not compromise nor will Remainers
    Did you miss the Attorney General's statement this morning? The backstop was not dealt with yesterday.

    The EU didn't compromise on the backstop, if they won't then why should we?
    Wrong, even Cox had said the EU 'had reduced the risk the UK would be trapped in the backstop.'

    Rejection of the Deal makes a strong possibility the complete cancellation of Brexit
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Jonathan said:

    HYUFD said:

    Jonathan said:

    Can the ERG etc filibusters removing no deal or changing the date in Brexit legislation? Genuine question. They will need to talk it out for about a week.

    No, as May has granted the vote
    What if the Leavers like Leadsom resigned from the cabinet In a week or two creating a crisis in the governments mechanics? Hard to schedule legislation in time if the government is not functioning.

    Mogg looks like he has a plan. I wonder what it is.
    If she resigned she'd be replaced within 24 hours.
  • If the Commons has a whopping majority against leaving with no deal, the Govt says well there's no better deal out there then presumably the logical next step of the Govt is to ask for an extension in order to either have another referendum and/or to put a vote to the commons for revocation of article 50 asap?

    The options TMay laid out after losing tonight only lead one way? I don't see Brexit happening now.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    Jonathan said:

    HYUFD said:

    Jonathan said:

    Can the ERG etc filibusters removing no deal or changing the date in Brexit legislation? Genuine question. They will need to talk it out for about a week.

    No, as May has granted the vote
    What if the Leavers like Leadsom resigned from the cabinet In a week or two creating a crisis in the governments mechanics? Hard to schedule legislation in time if the government is not functioning.

    Mogg looks like he has a plan. I wonder what it is.
    If a change in date needs to pass the Lords there is potential for a filibuster there, I think.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,198
    Jonathan said:

    HYUFD said:

    Jonathan said:

    Can the ERG etc filibusters removing no deal or changing the date in Brexit legislation? Genuine question. They will need to talk it out for about a week.

    No, as May has granted the vote
    What if the Leavers like Leadsom resigned from the cabinet In a week or two creating a crisis in the governments mechanics? Hard to schedule legislation in time if the government is not functioning.

    Mogg looks like he has a plan. I wonder what it is.
    Who cares what Leadsom does, over half the Cabinet would resign without a No Deal vote.

    The only plan Mogg seems to be succeeding in bringing closer is getting Brexit cancelled
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,676

    Jonathan said:

    HYUFD said:

    Jonathan said:

    Can the ERG etc filibusters removing no deal or changing the date in Brexit legislation? Genuine question. They will need to talk it out for about a week.

    No, as May has granted the vote
    What if the Leavers like Leadsom resigned from the cabinet In a week or two creating a crisis in the governments mechanics? Hard to schedule legislation in time if the government is not functioning.

    Mogg looks like he has a plan. I wonder what it is.
    If she resigned she'd be replaced within 24 hours.
    Timed well 24hrs might be enough.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,628
    Floater said:

    Brexit is over as remainers takeover

    I suspect the HoC will vote for a technical exit (stay in customs union and single market) or a 2nd referendum, neither of which the current administration will be able to enact.
    With the EU seemingly clear no extension beyond May.
    Time for a GE.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,773

    Elmar Brok just said no extension beyond EU elections and TM should revoke

    EU are kings now

    As predicted.

  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sigh. No it really isn't. What will be surrender is ending up staying in the EU because the headbangers were unwilling to compromise on anything but the purists of Brexits.

    The deal without a backstop still wouldn't have been the purist of the Brexits. There were a number of other objections to the deal such as committing to spending billions without any trade agreement sorted first. However Brexiteers were willing to compromise on all their other objections so long as just one objection was resolved. The EU refused to compromise on anything.
    Sorry but bricking up the English Channel would not have been enough for some in the ERG, if they tend up with the revocation of Article 50 and no Brexit at all it will be no more than they deserve
    Sorry but that's ludicrous hyperbole. There was a vote on backing the deal if the backstop was dealt with and there were only 8 Tory headbanger MPs who opposed that. They were:

    Heidi Allen, Guto Bebb, Ken Clarke, Dominic Grieve, Phillip Lee, Anne Marie Morris, Anna Soubry, Sarah Wollaston

    Absolutely all of those are extremists but the only extremist on that list from the ERG is I believe Anne Marie Morris.
    The backstop was effectively dealt with yesterday but the fanatics still would not compromise, now they will have to find out the hard way, if they will not compromise nor will Remainers
    Did you miss the Attorney General's statement this morning? The backstop was not dealt with yesterday.

    The EU didn't compromise on the backstop, if they won't then why should we?
    Wrong, even Cox had said the EU 'had reduced the risk the UK would be trapped in the backstop.'

    Rejection of the Deal makes a strong possibility the complete cancellation of Brexit
    Wrong, reducing the risk does not eliminate the risk. As Cox made clear, it was in his own words "unchanged".

    19. However, the legal risk remains unchanged that if through no such demonstrable failure of either party, but simply because of intractable differences, that situation does arise, the United Kingdom would have, at least while the fundamental circumstances remained the same, no internationally lawful means of exiting the Protocol’s arrangements, save by agreement.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992

    Interesting line from the PM:

    Voting for an extension does not solve the problems the government faces. The EU will want to know if the UK wants to revoke article 50 or if it wants a referendum. Those are choices the house must now face.

    Is that a hint that the government will offer the House those two options? She's right on the substantive point, of course.

    What's "a referendum" though? Remain v Leave (whatever that is)? Remain v No Deal? Remain v Deal? Deal v No Deal? All three? What about Norway or Canada?
    Remain vs Deal.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    75 tories voted no
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362
    Nigelb said:

    malcolmg said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sigh. No it really isn't. What will be surrender is ending up staying in the EU because the headbangers were unwilling to compromise on anything but the purists of Brexits.

    The deal without a backstop still wouldn't have been the purist of the Brexits. There were a number of other objections to the deal such as committing to spending billions without any trade agreement sorted first. However Brexiteers were willing to compromise on all their other objections so long as just one objection was resolved. The EU refused to compromise on anything.
    Sorry but bricking up the English Channel would not have been enough for some in the ERG, if they tend up with the revocation of Article 50 and no Brexit at all it will be no more than they deserve
    Sorry but that's ludicrous hyperbole. There was a vote on backing the deal if the backstop was dealt with and there were only 8 Tory headbanger MPs who opposed that. They were:

    Heidi Allen, Guto Bebb, Ken Clarke, Dominic Grieve, Phillip Lee, Anne Marie Morris, Anna Soubry, Sarah Wollaston

    Absolutely all of those are extremists but the only extremist on that list from the ERG is I believe Anne Marie Morris.
    The backstop was effectively dealt with yesterday but the fanatics still would not compromise, now they will have to find out the hard way, if they will not compromise nor will Remainers
    Not an iota of change to the backstop was changed.
    Perhaps not, but the fact that it would be impossible to permanently trap the UK in it against its will was very clearly demonstrated. They have quite possibly thrown away Brexit on a legal irrelevance.
    I am not so sure Nigel, it was just weaselly words , no change to them having us by the goolies. It was purely a legal; document confirming the other documents and clear by the way Juncker emphasised it, that it was irrelevant change at best.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207

    Floater said:

    Brexit is over as remainers takeover

    I suspect the HoC will vote for a technical exit (stay in customs union and single market) or a 2nd referendum, neither of which the current administration will be able to enact.
    With the EU seemingly clear no extension beyond May.
    Time for a GE.
    err - when and what does that gain us?
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362
    edited March 2019
    Floater said:

    malcolmg said:

    No need to worry about needing an IDP for my Easter holiday in Germany then.

    Which part are you visiting?
    Lower Saxony , staying in Hamelin. Will visit Munster for Tank Museum and if possible get to Mohne Dam
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,773
    The last two weeks were well worth it:

    https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1105556461290225665
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,628
    Jonathan said:

    HYUFD said:

    Jonathan said:

    Can the ERG etc filibusters removing no deal or changing the date in Brexit legislation? Genuine question. They will need to talk it out for about a week.

    No, as May has granted the vote
    What if the Leavers like Leadsom resigned from the cabinet In a week or two creating a crisis in the governments mechanics? Hard to schedule legislation in time if the government is not functioning.

    Mogg looks like he has a plan. I wonder what it is.
    Mogg's got nothing.

    He's a posturer.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,676
    HYUFD said:

    Jonathan said:

    HYUFD said:

    Jonathan said:

    Can the ERG etc filibusters removing no deal or changing the date in Brexit legislation? Genuine question. They will need to talk it out for about a week.

    No, as May has granted the vote
    What if the Leavers like Leadsom resigned from the cabinet In a week or two creating a crisis in the governments mechanics? Hard to schedule legislation in time if the government is not functioning.

    Mogg looks like he has a plan. I wonder what it is.
    Who cares what Leadsom does, over half the Cabinet would resign without a No Deal vote.

    The only plan Mogg seems to be succeeding in bringing closer is getting Brexit cancelled
    To stop no deal the government has to pass legislation. That is hard to do against the clock if the government is not functioning. Could the governments attempt to amend the leaving date be disrupted by guerilla tactics by Leavers in the govt or the backbenches?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,876

    If the Commons has a whopping majority against leaving with no deal, the Govt says well there's no better deal out there then presumably the logical next step of the Govt is to ask for an extension in order to either have another referendum and/or to put a vote to the commons for revocation of article 50 asap?

    The options TMay laid out after losing tonight only lead one way? I don't see Brexit happening now.

    No its over and the anti-democrats have won. May will be directed to revoke Article 50 within the next few days.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,893

    HYUFD said:

    Sigh. No it really isn't. What will be surrender is ending up staying in the EU because the headbangers were unwilling to compromise on anything but the purists of Brexits.

    The deal without a backstop still wouldn't have been the purist of the Brexits. There were a number of other objections to the deal such as committing to spending billions without any trade agreement sorted first. However Brexiteers were willing to compromise on all their other objections so long as just one objection was resolved. The EU refused to compromise on anything.
    Sorry but bricking up the English Channel would not have been enough for some in the ERG, if they tend up with the revocation of Article 50 and no Brexit at all it will be no more than they deserve
    Sorry but that's ludicrous hyperbole. There was a vote on backing the deal if the backstop was dealt with and there were only 8 Tory headbanger MPs who opposed that. They were:

    Heidi Allen, Guto Bebb, Ken Clarke, Dominic Grieve, Phillip Lee, Anne Marie Morris, Anna Soubry, Sarah Wollaston

    Absolutely all of those are extremists but the only extremist on that list from the ERG is I believe Anne Marie Morris.
    Heidi and Sarah are now TIG
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    malcolmg said:

    Floater said:

    malcolmg said:

    No need to worry about needing an IDP for my Easter holiday in Germany then.

    Which part are you visiting?
    Lower Saxony , staying in Hamelin.
    Enjoy!
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,580
    Jonathan said:

    HYUFD said:

    Jonathan said:

    Can the ERG etc filibusters removing no deal or changing the date in Brexit legislation? Genuine question. They will need to talk it out for about a week.

    No, as May has granted the vote
    What if the Leavers like Leadsom resigned from the cabinet In a week or two creating a crisis in the governments mechanics? Hard to schedule legislation in time if the government is not functioning.

    Mogg looks like he has a plan. I wonder what it is.
    Support a vote of no confidence in the Government? If they brought down May without an extension then it would be a No Deal Brexit.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,742

    The last two weeks were well worth it:

    https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1105556461290225665

    3 joined the Tiggers though, so still voted against.

    Presumably a stronger Labour vote against too.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    DavidL said:

    If the Commons has a whopping majority against leaving with no deal, the Govt says well there's no better deal out there then presumably the logical next step of the Govt is to ask for an extension in order to either have another referendum and/or to put a vote to the commons for revocation of article 50 asap?

    The options TMay laid out after losing tonight only lead one way? I don't see Brexit happening now.

    No its over and the anti-democrats have won. May will be directed to revoke Article 50 within the next few days.
    Better than this deal.

    If so we get a new PM and then they can invoked A50 again and this time plan all along for No Deal if we can't get an acceptable one, as this PM should have done from the start.
This discussion has been closed.