Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Betting opinion moves sharply against TMay’s chances of gettin

1679111215

Comments

  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,752
    edited March 2019

    kle4 said:

    When even Hodges sees no point in May's strategy, boy
    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1105478190406029312

    Because No Deal will have been taken off the table by Parliament.

    The only calculation for the ERG at that point is Deal via MV3 or softer/no Brexit.

    A number (most?) of the Brexiteers voting against tonight will comfort themselves that a hard Brexit is still possible via no-deal.

    Once that comfort disappears, their calculation is very different.

    Tuesday: MV2 - lost
    Wednesday: No deal - rejected
    Thursday: MV3 + Extend for legislative processes - wins

    She just has to retain control until Thursday and it could all finally fall into place. Simples - as she said.

    The trouble is that the vote tomorrow won't take No Deal off the table. Nor will an extension if granted. Someone who favours No Deal will still be able to reason that if they hold out long enough it will happen by default.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    Funny. Wry. https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/theresa-may-brexit-deal-voice-croak-eu-withdrawal-agreement-parliament-vote-a8819786.html

    “The British people have been clear! They want us to implement the decision!” she gargled, her words exiting her mouth like the regurgitated worms of a desperate tree pipit, whose very best efforts just cannot satisfy the giant baby cuckoo that has conned its way into her nest."
  • saddosaddo Posts: 534
    Omnium said:

    I love the fact that David Davis - consummate dealmaker, the man who assured us the EU would fold at the last minute - is going to fold and vote for May’s deal. That so sums him up.

    Davis was never doing the deals. He was just a smokescreen so May and Robbins could fuck up the negotiations all on their own. And when he realised this he quit - as did his successor.
    Davis is an incompetent windbag. Part of the reason we're where we are today is his complete failure to do anything much. Talks a good game, but delivers like a drunk postman in a maze.
    May completely stitched him up. This clusterf@ck is 100% down to May.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,732
    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    SeanT said:

    Yes, I know why it is offensive. It implies whiteness is the default and normal setting. Plus it was used during the era of everyday racism. Yawn. Next question.

    Ah, perhaps you can help me. I've heard this explanation before, but it makes no sense. Even if you take the irrational view that 'coloured woman' implies that the default woman is white, why on earth is 'woman of colour' any more acceptable? I'm sure people who read the Guardian more avidly than me must know the answer, but I've never found it.
    Because whether a word is a slur is based on usage, not something you can derive purely from etymology.
    But what usage? Racists have never said "coloured woman," they say "n-gg-r" - unless you can point us to some counter examples. And anyway "of colour" is close enough to "coloured" that if one is offensive they both are.
    Isn't the more basic point that it is widely recognised to be offensive to a whole community(rather than just one or two individuals taking offense) and as such any decent person who wasn't actually setting out to offend, would avoid using it.

    As someone pointed out last week this seems to me to be more of a basic principle of good manners.
    Spot on. This really is a tedious discussion. Grown men like SeanT and RichardN really ought to be able to manage this. I'm surprised they find it such a struggle.

    I don’t struggle. I know all the right words. I knew - see below - that you can’t say “orientals” in America. I am just fascinated, as a writer, by the mentality that drives this ever-changing linguistic rule book.
    I can't imagine any non-gammon using the term orientals here either.
    Yes. I have avoided it since my lecture from America. It does now sound jarring to me, even as a Brit.

    Yet I would forgive a non-writer with less education for using it. How would he or she even know?
    Scores of Chinese takeaways in the UK use "oriental" in their names.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    Add Tracey Crouch to the switcher list.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976
    IanB2 said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    nico67 said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    SeanT said:

    Jonathan said:

    SeanT said:

    eek said:

    Watching NTV news in Germany (well I'm in Sofia but there are more Germans in the lounge than me) and Brexit is the main news story. As a country we look like a bunch of incompetent clowns...


    One of my sons, who travels the Asia-Pacific area as an exporter says that's how we're coming across there. Kevin Rudds' remarks the other day remarks couldn't be construed as complimentary either, even by Australian standards.
    Brexit we could all be like Dominic Grieve, or China, and ignore the proles.
    Alternatively eries of dysfunction.
    Politicians follow the people. You can build great enterprises based on a sense of national mission *but* (1) that sense of mission and the kind of sacrifices it demands will invariably end up trampling over others in the process, and (2) in time, the rigour and discipline needed to build the enterprise will drift, in favour of comfort and luxury.

    Britain built a great enterprise in the empire but even leaving aside the moral questions associated with it, the public fell out of love with the mission - and nothing has ever really replaced it (and how can you really replace 'running the world'?). You can blame Westminster and Whitehall but there's never since been the kind of national story around which to build a new narrative.

    As an aside, there are certainly Eurocrats who truly believe in the European project just as much as empire-builders of old. Their mistake is in failing to inspire the kind of national mission that drove nations from Athens and Rome through to post-WW2 America or perhaps China today.
    snip

    Just a late night guess. And now, definitely, Netflix and wine. KapKap.
    Can you recommend a Netflix series? I have finally finished Ozark so am in the market for a new one, starting tonight.
    Try Secret City.

    It’s an Australian political drama set in Canberra , there’s two series . It’s excellent . Also Mindhunter, that’s from the USA and is about the beginnings of psychological profiling in the FBI, it’s a bit slow to begin with but well worth sticking with .
    Thanks – I like the sound of Secret City.
    Sons of Anarchy is worth a watch, if you don't mind the violence. Sex Education has been recommended to me but I haven't seen it.
    I can happily recommend Sex Education. Also Sabrina. And I quite liked Russian Doll, although I believe others on here emphatically didn't.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976
    kinabalu said:

    SeanT said:

    Lol

    You do realize that the word “Orientals” is regarded as MASSIVELY offensive in the USA? For them it is worse than “Pakis” and pretty close to the N word. A politician using it might have to resign.

    But of course you don’t realize this, or you wouldn’t have used the word. You prove my point, precisely.

    I tend to operate on British lines.

    "Saw this oriental girl in Tesco earlier. Phew, what a scorcher!"

    Nothing offensive about that surely?
    It's approximately equally misogynistic and racist, I'd say.
  • RobinWiggsRobinWiggs Posts: 621
    Chris said:

    kle4 said:

    When even Hodges sees no point in May's strategy, boy
    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1105478190406029312

    Because No Deal will have been taken off the table by Parliament.

    The only calculation for the ERG at that point is Deal via MV3 or softer/no Brexit.

    A number (most?) of the Brexiteers voting against tonight will comfort themselves that a hard Brexit is still possible via no-deal.

    Once that comfort disappears, their calculation is very different.

    Tuesday: MV2 - lost
    Wednesday: No deal - rejected
    Thursday: MV3 + Extend for legislative processes - wins

    She just has to retain control until Thursday and it could all finally fall into place. Simples - as she said.

    The trouble is that the vote tomorrow won't take No Deal off the table. Nor will an extension if granted. Someone who favours No Deal will still be able to reason that if they hold out long enough it will happen by default.
    Agreed - but it will definitively demonstrate there is no parliamentary majority for it. And is why I think TM needs to combine the MV3 and extend votes. I can see no other route to bringing more of the ERG on board. Everything left is softer/no brexit.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,631
    edited March 2019

    Add Tracey Crouch to the switcher list.

    Edging up towards 250 ayes

    230-239 5.9
    240-249 5.3
    250-259 4
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,254
    _Anazina_ said:

    It sounds more like you are describing the weather.

    :-)

    I wish.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,580

    kle4 said:

    When even Hodges sees no point in May's strategy, boy
    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1105478190406029312

    Because No Deal will have been taken off the table by Parliament.

    The only calculation for the ERG at that point is Deal via MV3 or softer/no Brexit.

    A number (most?) of the Brexiteers voting against tonight will comfort themselves that a hard Brexit is still possible via no-deal.

    Once that comfort disappears, their calculation is very different.

    Tuesday: MV2 - lost
    Wednesday: No deal - rejected
    Thursday: MV3 + Extend for legislative processes - wins

    She just has to retain control until Thursday and it could all finally fall into place. Simples - as she said.

    The problem with that is the No Deal cannot just be rejected. It has to be replaced by something else or it remains the default. And the only thing it can really be replaced by at this point is extension, in which case all pressure on the ERG types to support the deal are removed.

    People really should stop talking about 'rejecting no deal' or 'voting against no deal'. They can't. They can only vote FOR something else which replaces No Deal.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163

    Pulpstar said:

    Boris Johnson speaking as the ERG were meeting. That looks like unfortunate timing to me.

    Any worries on the number of switchers ?
    On the other side:

    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1105521288603410432
    Cynical, irresponsible, but predictable. People who are prepared to back it but don't want to face the consequences. Cowards, in other words.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,692
    edited March 2019

    I've made the Native American / Indian rather than using "First Nation" faux pas in Canada as well.....

    Hopefully I don't get de-platformed !!!!

    Somebody once complained to Mike about me.

    They said they thought that the deputy editor of Political Betting shouldn't be someone who said

    'I really don't want devout Muslims as new neighbours'
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,822
    edited March 2019

    kle4 said:

    When even Hodges sees no point in May's strategy, boy
    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1105478190406029312

    Because No Deal will have been taken off the table by Parliament.

    The only calculation for the ERG at that point is Deal via MV3 or softer/no Brexit.

    A number (most?) of the Brexiteers voting against tonight will comfort themselves that a hard Brexit is still possible via no-deal.

    Once that comfort disappears, their calculation is very different.

    Tuesday: MV2 - lost
    Wednesday: No deal - rejected
    Thursday: MV3 + Extend for legislative processes - wins

    She just has to retain control until Thursday and it could all finally fall into place. Simples - as she said.

    But parliament voting against No Deal does not prevent no deal. For instance, although an unlikely scenario, the following could, in theory, occur:

    1. MV2 is lost
    2. MPs reject no deal
    3. MPs approve article 50 extension
    4. EU tells UK to get stuffed on extension
    5. UK leaves without a deal on 29 March.

    What I do think will be interesting though, and where TMay stands the best chance of getting MV3 passed, is what actually happens at step 4 above. Will the EU wave an extension through without conditions, and can kick? Or will they say that the only reason to grant an extension will be so that the UK can get the deal through (ie via a referendum, GE or whatever).

    If it’s the latter that could focus minds somewhat.

    Personally if I was Mrs May I’d be hoping for a sharp and swift ‘non’ to an extension because I think that way the deal would go through easily!!
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,388
    saddo said:

    Omnium said:

    I love the fact that David Davis - consummate dealmaker, the man who assured us the EU would fold at the last minute - is going to fold and vote for May’s deal. That so sums him up.

    Davis was never doing the deals. He was just a smokescreen so May and Robbins could fuck up the negotiations all on their own. And when he realised this he quit - as did his successor.
    Davis is an incompetent windbag. Part of the reason we're where we are today is his complete failure to do anything much. Talks a good game, but delivers like a drunk postman in a maze.
    May completely stitched him up. This clusterf@ck is 100% down to May.
    So, so we should conclude that for two years, David Davis was operating in the dark. I don't find that credible.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,493
    Is there a running total of MPs confirmed voting particular ways available online?
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,780
    Go on Mrs May!

    I hope you'll forgive cheering on the PM, but I think it'll be best if she gets this deal done.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,254

    I can't imagine any non-gammon using the term orientals here either.

    Me neither. People really ought to be more careful. Language is important.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,580
    IanB2 said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    nico67 said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    SeanT said:

    Jonathan said:

    SeanT said:

    eek said:

    Watching NTV news in Germany (well I'm in Sofia but there are more Germans in the lounge than me) and Brexit is the main news story. As a country we look like a bunch of incompetent clowns...


    One of my sons, who travels the Asia-Pacific area as an exporter says that's how we're coming across there. Kevin Rudds' remarks the other day remarks couldn't be construed as complimentary either, even by Australian standards.
    Brexit we could all be like Dominic Grieve, or China, and ignore the proles.
    Alternatively eries of dysfunction.
    Politicians follow the people. You can build great enterprises based on a sense of national mission *but* (1) that sense of mission and the kind of sacrifices it demands will invariably end up trampling over others in the process, and (2) in time, the rigour and discipline needed to build the enterprise will drift, in favour of comfort and luxury.

    Britain built a great enterprise in the empire but even leaving aside the moral questions associated with it, the public fell out of love with the mission - and nothing has ever really replaced it (and how can you really replace 'running the world'?). You can blame Westminster and Whitehall but there's never since been the kind of national story around which to build a new narrative.

    As an aside, there are certainly Eurocrats who truly believe in the European project just as much as empire-builders of old. Their mistake is in failing to inspire the kind of national mission that drove nations from Athens and Rome through to post-WW2 America or perhaps China today.
    snip

    Just a late night guess. And now, definitely, Netflix and wine. KapKap.
    Can you recommend a Netflix series? I have finally finished Ozark so am in the market for a new one, starting tonight.
    Try Secret City.

    It’s an Australian political drama set in Canberra , there’s two series . It’s excellent . Also Mindhunter, that’s from the USA and is about the beginnings of psychological profiling in the FBI, it’s a bit slow to begin with but well worth sticking with .
    Thanks – I like the sound of Secret City.
    Sons of Anarchy is worth a watch, if you don't mind the violence. Sex Education has been recommended to me but I haven't seen it.
    "The Good Place" is just fantastic. One of the funniest things I have seen in ages and a great primer in moral philosophy.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Sean_F said:

    saddo said:

    Omnium said:

    I love the fact that David Davis - consummate dealmaker, the man who assured us the EU would fold at the last minute - is going to fold and vote for May’s deal. That so sums him up.

    Davis was never doing the deals. He was just a smokescreen so May and Robbins could fuck up the negotiations all on their own. And when he realised this he quit - as did his successor.
    Davis is an incompetent windbag. Part of the reason we're where we are today is his complete failure to do anything much. Talks a good game, but delivers like a drunk postman in a maze.
    May completely stitched him up. This clusterf@ck is 100% down to May.
    So, so we should conclude that for two years, David Davis was operating in the dark. I don't find that credible.
    Occam's Razor says to me that while he was operating on the assumption he was the one planning and negotiating while there was a parallel negotiation occuring with Robbins. May undercut her own SoS via Robbins and so he resigned.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871

    kle4 said:

    When even Hodges sees no point in May's strategy, boy
    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1105478190406029312

    Because No Deal will have been taken off the table by Parliament.

    The only calculation for the ERG at that point is Deal via MV3 or softer/no Brexit.

    A number (most?) of the Brexiteers voting against tonight will comfort themselves that a hard Brexit is still possible via no-deal.

    Once that comfort disappears, their calculation is very different.

    Tuesday: MV2 - lost
    Wednesday: No deal - rejected
    Thursday: MV3 + Extend for legislative processes - wins

    She just has to retain control until Thursday and it could all finally fall into place. Simples - as she said.

    The problem with that is the No Deal cannot just be rejected. It has to be replaced by something else or it remains the default. And the only thing it can really be replaced by at this point is extension, in which case all pressure on the ERG types to support the deal are removed.

    People really should stop talking about 'rejecting no deal' or 'voting against no deal'. They can't. They can only vote FOR something else which replaces No Deal.
    Legally yes, but politically no. By voting against no deal Parliament is helping to narrow down the choices.
  • RobinWiggsRobinWiggs Posts: 621
    edited March 2019

    kle4 said:

    When even Hodges sees no point in May's strategy, boy
    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1105478190406029312

    Because No Deal will have been taken off the table by Parliament.

    The only calculation for the ERG at that point is Deal via MV3 or softer/no Brexit.

    A number (most?) of the Brexiteers voting against tonight will comfort themselves that a hard Brexit is still possible via no-deal.

    Once that comfort disappears, their calculation is very different.

    Tuesday: MV2 - lost
    Wednesday: No deal - rejected
    Thursday: MV3 + Extend for legislative processes - wins

    She just has to retain control until Thursday and it could all finally fall into place. Simples - as she said.

    The problem with that is the No Deal cannot just be rejected. It has to be replaced by something else or it remains the default. And the only thing it can really be replaced by at this point is extension, in which case all pressure on the ERG types to support the deal are removed.

    People really should stop talking about 'rejecting no deal' or 'voting against no deal'. They can't. They can only vote FOR something else which replaces No Deal.
    Having seen rejected a motion to leave with no deal tomorrow, any government that sought to bring about or allow a no deal will be no confidenced, regardless of it being a default option. At that stage parliament really will take control and install a government that will make the primary legislative changes to take no-deal off the table.

    No-deal only exists as a realistic option until is is rejected tomorrow.

    Let's just do the deal.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    edited March 2019
    kinabalu said:

    I can't imagine any non-gammon using the term orientals here either.

    Me neither. People really ought to be more careful. Language is important.
    It is, but it is not everything either, and the reaction to use of offensive language does need to be proportionate, as not all incidences will be of the same level. Overdoing it on, say, an innocent if ignorant slip, might give cover to someone far more deliberate and vile to claim the same overreaction is happening to them.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    kinabalu said:

    I can't imagine any non-gammon using the term orientals here either.

    Me neither. People really ought to be more careful. Language is important.
    Don't you believe that sticks and stones may break your bones but words can never hurt you? As Eleanor Roosevelt famously said, no-one can hurt you without your permission. Seems a pretty good philosophy of life to me.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,388
    edited March 2019

    Is there a running total of MPs confirmed voting particular ways available online?

    I think these are the switchers, so far

    Penning
    Lamont
    Pritchard
    Gray
    Halfon
    Bradley
    Evans
    Vickers
    Hands
    Syms
    Mann
    Thomas
    Blackman
    Offord
    Loughton
    Watling
    Baron
    Mercer
    Mitchell
    Crouch
    Quince
    Brady (probably)
    Davis (rumoured)
    Goldsmith (wavering)
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,631

    kle4 said:

    When even Hodges sees no point in May's strategy, boy
    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1105478190406029312

    Because No Deal will have been taken off the table by Parliament.

    The only calculation for the ERG at that point is Deal via MV3 or softer/no Brexit.

    A number (most?) of the Brexiteers voting against tonight will comfort themselves that a hard Brexit is still possible via no-deal.

    Once that comfort disappears, their calculation is very different.

    Tuesday: MV2 - lost
    Wednesday: No deal - rejected
    Thursday: MV3 + Extend for legislative processes - wins

    She just has to retain control until Thursday and it could all finally fall into place. Simples - as she said.

    The problem with that is the No Deal cannot just be rejected. It has to be replaced by something else or it remains the default. And the only thing it can really be replaced by at this point is extension, in which case all pressure on the ERG types to support the deal are removed.

    People really should stop talking about 'rejecting no deal' or 'voting against no deal'. They can't. They can only vote FOR something else which replaces No Deal.
    Quite. If MPs wish to take No Deal off the table, they need to positively vote for something else, whether that be a deal or to revoke A50.

    A short extension just brings the same questions back in a few weeks' time, unless the EU are prepared to amend the WA - the actual WA, not some meaningless but worthy-sounding bollocks that accompanies it.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,780
    saddo said:

    Omnium said:

    I love the fact that David Davis - consummate dealmaker, the man who assured us the EU would fold at the last minute - is going to fold and vote for May’s deal. That so sums him up.

    Davis was never doing the deals. He was just a smokescreen so May and Robbins could fuck up the negotiations all on their own. And when he realised this he quit - as did his successor.
    Davis is an incompetent windbag. Part of the reason we're where we are today is his complete failure to do anything much. Talks a good game, but delivers like a drunk postman in a maze.
    May completely stitched him up. This clusterf@ck is 100% down to May.
    I don't see that. Davis did bugger all, and did it to a degree that is incomprehensible to anyone that's ever held down a job.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871

    https://twitter.com/nicholaswatt/status/1105513486107529218

    Personally I think that's an underestimate based on what we already know. I agree with @Sandpit that it's looking like a total 240ish Ayes.

    The number of abstentions is just as interesting.

    Especially if they were on the Labour side.
    I don't think there will be many abstentions, certainly not enough to make a material difference.
    Indeed, it's pretty indefensible not to vote meaningfully on one of the most important divisions of your career.

    Boris up now.
    Boris essentially positions himself as leader of the true nutters, no-one else wanting him.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    I've made the Native American / Indian rather than using "First Nation" faux pas in Canada as well.....

    Hopefully I don't get de-platformed !!!!

    Somebody once complained to Mike about me.

    They said they thought that the deputy editor of Political Betting shouldn't be someone who said

    'I really don't want to devout Muslims as new neighbours'
    Good. Grammatically what is the word "to" doing in that sentence? ;)
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    Sean_F said:

    saddo said:

    Omnium said:

    I love the fact that David Davis - consummate dealmaker, the man who assured us the EU would fold at the last minute - is going to fold and vote for May’s deal. That so sums him up.

    Davis was never doing the deals. He was just a smokescreen so May and Robbins could fuck up the negotiations all on their own. And when he realised this he quit - as did his successor.
    Davis is an incompetent windbag. Part of the reason we're where we are today is his complete failure to do anything much. Talks a good game, but delivers like a drunk postman in a maze.
    May completely stitched him up. This clusterf@ck is 100% down to May.
    So, so we should conclude that for two years, David Davis was operating in the dark. I don't find that credible.
    As with most such defences, does Davis really want us to accept he is just that dumb? Because he surely does not expect us to believe May is a mastermind.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,164
    Sean_F said:

    saddo said:

    Omnium said:

    I love the fact that David Davis - consummate dealmaker, the man who assured us the EU would fold at the last minute - is going to fold and vote for May’s deal. That so sums him up.

    Davis was never doing the deals. He was just a smokescreen so May and Robbins could fuck up the negotiations all on their own. And when he realised this he quit - as did his successor.
    Davis is an incompetent windbag. Part of the reason we're where we are today is his complete failure to do anything much. Talks a good game, but delivers like a drunk postman in a maze.
    May completely stitched him up. This clusterf@ck is 100% down to May.
    So, so we should conclude that for two years, David Davis was operating in the dark. I don't find that credible.
    Indeed - as I have said repeatedly May has had a reasonable stab at a near impossible task. We still have idiots on here and Bojo in Parliament droning on about what they want with no reference to the other side in the negotiation. The clusterfuck is not down to May it is down to the unrealistic aspirations of a group in the Tory Party who lack any clue of the real world in which they are operating.
  • SeanTSeanT Posts: 549
    kle4 said:

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    SeanT said:

    Yes, I know why it is offensive. It implies whiteness is the default and normal setting. Plus it was used during the era of everyday racism. Yawn. Next question.

    Ahound it.
    Because whether a word is a slur is based on usage, not something you can derive purely from etymology.
    But what usage? Racists have never said "coloured woman," they say "n-gg-r" - unless you can point us to some counter examples. And anyway "of colour" is close enough to "coloured" that if one is offensive they both are.
    Isn

    As someone pointed out last week this seems to me to be more of a basic principle of good manners.
    Spot on. This really is a tedious discussion. Grown men like SeanT and RichardN really ought to be able to manage this. I'm surprised they find it such a struggle.

    I dbook.
    I can't imagine any non-gammon using the term orientals here either.
    Yes. acker, honky, doughboy, kaffir, gringo, and a pasty-eater.

    It may be hard to tell the difference sometimes, since someone would use it as an excuse evenif not the case, but there is surely a distinction between someone perhaps using an older term that used to be acceptable but is no longer but clearly meaning no offence even though they have caused it, and those who swing around racial epithets as casual insults.

    The first terminological change I can remember from being young was use of spastic, which I heard recently (I cannot confirm) is not considered as offensive in the US as it is here now.
    Spaz was one of my favorite insults as a kid. And an adult.

    I think the answer to this is that we should all be able to say whatever we like without fear. Let the blacks say cracker, let the Muslims say kaffir, let the whites say nigger, let the Jews say goy, let the goys say Kike, let the Thais say farang, let the spics say gringos. Fuck it. Let it all out, until the words have become mere words and all the words have lost the ability to offend. Same as we did with “fuck”.

    Right now we are engaged in the linguistic equivalent of Victorians shrouding piano legs in a fit of prudery. It just makes things worse, and makes everyone evermore neurotic.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Sean_F said:

    Is there a running total of MPs confirmed voting particular ways available online?

    I think these are the switchers, so far

    Penning
    Lamont
    Pritchard
    Gray
    Halfon
    Bradley
    Evans
    Vickers
    Hands
    Syms
    Mann
    Thomas
    Blackman
    Offord
    Loughton
    Watling
    Baron
    Mercer
    Mitchell
    Crouch
    Quince
    Brady (probably)
    Davis (rumoured)
    Goldsmith (wavering)
    If we operate on the assumption that the same again might switch but not pre-announce it [seems optimistic to May TBH] that still seems to leave a defeat of about 150 looming. A 200+ defeat still seems possible.

    How can she survive a 3-figure defeat?
  • I've made the Native American / Indian rather than using "First Nation" faux pas in Canada as well.....

    Hopefully I don't get de-platformed !!!!

    Somebody once complained to Mike about me.

    They said they thought that the deputy editor of Political Betting shouldn't be someone who said

    'I really don't want to devout Muslims as new neighbours'
    Good. Grammatically what is the word "to" doing in that sentence? ;)
    Hurrah for the edit button.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    Sean_F said:

    Is there a running total of MPs confirmed voting particular ways available online?

    I think these are the switchers, so far

    Penning
    Lamont
    Pritchard
    Gray
    Halfon
    Bradley
    Evans
    Vickers
    Hands
    Syms
    Mann
    Thomas
    Blackman
    Offord
    Loughton
    Watling
    Baron
    Mercer
    Mitchell
    Crouch
    Quince
    Brady (probably)
    Davis (rumoured)
    Goldsmith (wavering)
    That's 24/115....
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,254
    Anorak said:

    Perhaps the prevalence of racism within the Far East - meaning between peoples of that area - has desensitised them to it.

    Well there certainly is a lot of that in my experience. Then again, as a dripping wet Hampstead liberal I am quite easily shocked.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,580
    Sean_F said:

    saddo said:

    Omnium said:

    I love the fact that David Davis - consummate dealmaker, the man who assured us the EU would fold at the last minute - is going to fold and vote for May’s deal. That so sums him up.

    Davis was never doing the deals. He was just a smokescreen so May and Robbins could fuck up the negotiations all on their own. And when he realised this he quit - as did his successor.
    Davis is an incompetent windbag. Part of the reason we're where we are today is his complete failure to do anything much. Talks a good game, but delivers like a drunk postman in a maze.
    May completely stitched him up. This clusterf@ck is 100% down to May.
    So, so we should conclude that for two years, David Davis was operating in the dark. I don't find that credible.
    Well for almost 1 year of that he wasn't really operating at all as the EU refused to start any talks until we activated Article 50 which was March 29th 2017.

    But yes from that point on until he resigned he was only nominally leading the negotiations with May and Robbins pulling all the strings.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220
    RobD said:
    F*ck me that represents everything that's wrong with parliament.

    May's deal seems to have picked up a bit of a head of steam so I've cashed out my SPIN bet (I'll probably regret), but taking solace in the fact Boris seems to have become an irrelevance.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    AndyJS said:

    kinabalu said:

    I can't imagine any non-gammon using the term orientals here either.

    Me neither. People really ought to be more careful. Language is important.
    Don't you believe that sticks and stones may break your bones but words can never hurt you? As Eleanor Roosevelt famously said, no-one can hurt you without your permission. Seems a pretty good philosophy of life to me.
    Well, point one, words can hurt anyone and, point two, they are often the precursor of sticks and stones, and worse. See under Rwanda and Radio Milles Collines for one of thousands of examples.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,580
    Omnium said:

    Go on Mrs May!

    I hope you'll forgive cheering on the PM, but I think it'll be best if she gets this deal done.

    Absolutely right. I think she is an awful politician and has been extremely bad for the country but this is the only game in town now so I want her to win.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    SeanT said:

    kle4 said:

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    SeanT said:

    Yes, I know why it is offensive. It implies whiteness is the default and normal setting. Plus it was used during the era of everyday racism. Yawn. Next question.

    Ahound it.
    Because whether a word is a slur is based on usage, not something you can derive purely from etymology.
    But what usage? Racists have never said "coloured woman," they say "n-gg-r" - unless you can point us to some counter examples. And anyway "of colour" is close enough to "coloured" that if one is offensive they both are.
    Isn

    As someone pointed out last week this seems to me to be more of a basic principle of good manners.
    Spot on. This really is a tedious discussion. Grown men like SeanT and RichardN really ought to be able to manage this. I'm surprised they find it such a struggle.

    I dbook.
    I can't imagine any non-gammon using the term orientals here either.
    Yes. acker, honky, doughboy, kaffir, gringo, and a pasty-eater.

    It may be hard to tell the difference sometimes, since someone would use it as an excuse evenif not the case, but there is surely a distinction between someone perhaps using an older term that used to be acceptable but is no longer but clearly meaning no offence even though they have caused it, and those who swing around racial epithets as casual insults.

    The first terminological change I can remember from being young was use of spastic, which I heard recently (I cannot confirm) is not considered as offensive in the US as it is here now.
    Spaz was one of my favorite insults as a kid. And an adult.

    I think the answer to this is that we should all be able to say whatever we like without fear. Let the blacks say cracker, let the Muslims say kaffir, let the whites say nigger, let the Jews say goy, let the goys say Kike, let the Thais say farang, let the spics say gringos. Fuck it. Let it all out, until the words have become mere words and all the words have lost the ability to offend. Same as we did with “fuck”.

    Right now we are engaged in the linguistic equivalent of Victorians shrouding piano legs in a fit of prudery. It just makes things worse, and makes everyone evermore neurotic.
    Never thought of it that way but the word "fuck" has really lost all offense. In fact most non-racial swear words have.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,493

    Omnium said:

    Go on Mrs May!

    I hope you'll forgive cheering on the PM, but I think it'll be best if she gets this deal done.

    Absolutely right. I think she is an awful politician and has been extremely bad for the country but this is the only game in town now so I want her to win.
    I have a feeling JRM might back the deal. H will surely take some waverers with him.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,388

    SeanT said:

    kle4 said:

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    SeanT said:

    Yes, I know why it is offensive. It implies whiteness is the default and normal setting. Plus it was used during the era of everyday racism. Yawn. Next question.

    Ahound it.
    Because whether a word is a slur is based on usage, not something you can derive purely from etymology.
    But what usage? Racists have never said "coloured woman," they say "n-gg-r" - unless you can point us to some counter examples. And anyway "of colour" is close enough to "coloured" that if one is offensive they both are.
    Isn

    As someone pointed out last week this seems to me to be more of a basic principle of good manners.
    Spot on. This really is a tedious discussion. Grown men like SeanT and RichardN really ought to be able to manage this. I'm surprised they find it such a struggle.

    I dbook.
    I can't imagine any non-gammon using the term orientals here either.
    Yes. acker, honky, doughboy, kaffir, gringo, and a pasty-eater.

    It may be hard to tell the difference sometimes, since someone would use it as an excuse evenif not the case, but there is surely a distinction between someone perhaps using an older term that used to be acceptable but is no longer but clearly meaning no offence even though they have caused it, and those who swing around racial epithets as casual insults.

    The first terminological change I can remember from being young was use of spastic, which I heard recently (I cannot confirm) is not considered as offensive in the US as it is here now.
    Spaz was one of my favorite insults as a kid. And an adult.

    I think the answer to this is that we should all be able to say whatever we like without fear. Let the blacks say cracker, let the Muslims say kaffir, let the whites say nigger, let the Jews say goy, let the goys say Kike, let the Thais say farang, let the spics say gringos. Fuck it. Let it all out, until the words have become mere words and all the words have lost the ability to offend. Same as we did with “fuck”.

    Right now we are engaged in the linguistic equivalent of Victorians shrouding piano legs in a fit of prudery. It just makes things worse, and makes everyone evermore neurotic.
    Never thought of it that way but the word "fuck" has really lost all offense. In fact most non-racial swear words have.
    I think the C-bomb still offends quite a few people.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414

    Sean_F said:

    Is there a running total of MPs confirmed voting particular ways available online?

    I think these are the switchers, so far

    Penning
    Lamont
    Pritchard
    Gray
    Halfon
    Bradley
    Evans
    Vickers
    Hands
    Syms
    Mann
    Thomas
    Blackman
    Offord
    Loughton
    Watling
    Baron
    Mercer
    Mitchell
    Crouch
    Quince
    Brady (probably)
    Davis (rumoured)
    Goldsmith (wavering)
    If we operate on the assumption that the same again might switch but not pre-announce it [seems optimistic to May TBH] that still seems to leave a defeat of about 150 looming. A 200+ defeat still seems possible.

    How can she survive a 3-figure defeat?
    We are about to find out it seems...
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,493

    SeanT said:

    kle4 said:

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    SeanT said:

    Yes, I know why it is offensive. It implies whiteness is the default and normal setting. Plus it was used during the era of everyday racism. Yawn. Next question.

    Ahound it.
    Because whether a word is a slur is based on usage, not something you can derive purely from etymology.
    But what usage? Racists have never said "coloured woman," they say "n-gg-r" - unless you can point us to some counter examples. And anyway "of colour" is close enough to "coloured" that if one is offensive they both are.
    Isn

    As someone pointed out last week this seems to me to be more of a basic principle of good manners.
    Spot on. This really is a tedious discussion. Grown men like SeanT and RichardN really ought to be able to manage this. I'm surprised they find it such a struggle.

    I dbook.
    I can't imagine any non-gammon using the term orientals here either.
    Yes. acker, honky, doughboy, kaffir, gringo, and a pasty-eater.

    It may be hard to tell the difference sometimes, since someone would use it as an excuse evenif not the case, but there is surely a distinction between someone perhaps using an older term that used to be acceptable but is no longer but clearly meaning no offence even though they have caused it, and those who swing around racial epithets as casual insults.

    The first terminological change I can remember from being young was use of spastic, which I heard recently (I cannot confirm) is not considered as offensive in the US as it is here now.
    Spaz was one of my favorite insults as a kid. And an adult.

    I think the answer to this is that we should all be able to say whatever we like without fear. Let the blacks say cracker, let the Muslims say kaffir, let the whites say nigger, let the Jews say goy, let the goys say Kike, let the Thais say farang, let the spics say gringos. Fuck it. Let it all out, until the words have become mere words and all the words have lost the ability to offend. Same as we did with “fuck”.

    Right now we are engaged in the linguistic equivalent of Victorians shrouding piano legs in a fit of prudery. It just makes things worse, and makes everyone evermore neurotic.
    Never thought of it that way but the word "fuck" has really lost all offense. In fact most non-racial swear words have.
    You're just using the wrong ones. ;)
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Some people today are more offended by the use of certain word than by a physical attack between say two people of the same racial background. Something must have gone wrong if that's the situation.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,388
    RobD said:

    Sean_F said:

    Is there a running total of MPs confirmed voting particular ways available online?

    I think these are the switchers, so far

    Penning
    Lamont
    Pritchard
    Gray
    Halfon
    Bradley
    Evans
    Vickers
    Hands
    Syms
    Mann
    Thomas
    Blackman
    Offord
    Loughton
    Watling
    Baron
    Mercer
    Mitchell
    Crouch
    Quince
    Brady (probably)
    Davis (rumoured)
    Goldsmith (wavering)
    That's 24/115....
    Swire is now on board too.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163



    Never thought of it that way but the word "fuck" has really lost all offense. In fact most non-racial swear words have.

    I have noticed in the past few years that "shit" has become more and more common in network american tv shows airing in prime time. Perhaps a loosening of standards given the rise of HBO and other competitors where extreme vulgarity is extremely common.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,042
    Sean_F said:

    SeanT said:

    kle4 said:

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    SeanT said:

    Yes, I know why it is offensive. It implies whiteness is the default and normal setting. Plus it was used during the era of everyday racism. Yawn. Next question.

    Ahound it.
    Because whether a word is a slur is based on usage, not something you can derive purely from etymology.
    But what usage? Racists have never said "coloured woman," they say "n-gg-r" - unless you can point us to some counter examples. And anyway "of colour" is close enough to "coloured" that if one is offensive they both are.
    Isn

    As someone pointed out last week this seems to me to be more of a basic principle of good manners.
    Spot on. This really is a tedious discussion. Grown men like SeanT and RichardN really ought to be able to manage this. I'm surprised they find it such a struggle.

    I dbook.
    I can't imagine any non-gammon using the term orientals here either.
    Yes. acker, honky, doughboy, kaffir, gringo, and a pasty-eater.

    It m offence even though they have caused it, and those who swing around racial epithets as casual insults.

    The first terminological change I can remember from being young was use of spastic, which I heard recently (I cannot confirm) is not considered as offensive in the US as it is here now.
    Spaz was one of my favorite insults as a kid. And an adult.

    I think the answer to this is that we should all be able to say whatever we like without fear. Let the blacks say cracker, let the Muslims say kaffir, let the whites say nigger, let the Jews say goy, let the goys say Kike, let the Thais say farang, let the spics say gringos. Fuck it. Let it all out, until the words have become mere words and all the words have lost the ability to offend. Same as we did with “fuck”.

    Right now we are engaged in the linguistic equivalent of Victorians shrouding piano legs in a fit of prudery. It just makes things worse, and makes everyone evermore neurotic.
    Never thought of it that way but the word "fuck" has really lost all offense. In fact most non-racial swear words have.
    I think the C-bomb still offends quite a few people.
    Too right. If someone called me a Conservative I'd lamp them!
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    Add Michael Fabricant to the switcher list.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,710

    Sean_F said:

    Is there a running total of MPs confirmed voting particular ways available online?

    I think these are the switchers, so far

    Penning
    Lamont
    Pritchard
    Gray
    Halfon
    Bradley
    Evans
    Vickers
    Hands
    Syms
    Mann
    Thomas
    Blackman
    Offord
    Loughton
    Watling
    Baron
    Mercer
    Mitchell
    Crouch
    Quince
    Brady (probably)
    Davis (rumoured)
    Goldsmith (wavering)
    If we operate on the assumption that the same again might switch but not pre-announce it [seems optimistic to May TBH] that still seems to leave a defeat of about 150 looming. A 200+ defeat still seems possible.

    How can she survive a 3-figure defeat?
    Just do what she did before and ignore it, probably...
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,814
    Mr. Thompson, words tend to soften over time. Naughty and mischief used to be rather stronger than they are now.

    The one exception that springs to mind is c***, which used to be used rather more freely and is now the strongest word most would think of (non-racial, certainly).
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    Sean_F said:

    SeanT said:

    kle4 said:

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    SeanT said:

    Yes, I know why it is offensive. It implies whiteness is the default and normal setting. Plus it was used during the era of everyday racism. Yawn. Next question.

    Ahound it.
    Because whether a word is a slur is based on usage, not something you can derive purely from etymology.
    But what usage? Racists have never said "coloured woman," they say "n-gg-r" - unless you can point us to some counter examples. And anyway "of colour" is close enough to "coloured" that if one is offensive they both are.
    Isn

    As someone pointed out last week this seems to me to be more of a basic principle of good manners.
    Spot on. This really is a tedious discussion. Grown men like SeanT and RichardN really ought to be able to manage this. I'm surprised they find it such a struggle.

    I dbook.
    I can't imagine any non-gammon using the term orientals here either.
    Yes. acker, honky, doughboy, kaffir, gringo, and a pasty-eater.

    It may be hard to tell the difference sometimes, since someone would use it as an excuse evenif not the case, but there is surely a distinction between someone perhaps using an older term that used to be acceptable but is no longer but clearly meaning no offence even though they have caused it, and those who swing around racial epithets as casual insults.

    The first terminological change I can remember from being young was use of spastic, which I heard recently (I cannot confirm) is not considered as offensive in the US as it is here now.
    Spaz was one of my favorite insults as a kid. And an adult.

    Right now we are engaged in the linguistic equivalent of Victorians shrouding piano legs in a fit of prudery. It just makes things worse, and makes everyone evermore neurotic.
    Never thought of it that way but the word "fuck" has really lost all offense. In fact most non-racial swear words have.
    I think the C-bomb still offends quite a few people.
    Indeed. Getting there though. It did provide for one of the funniest lines in The Favourite.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,254
    AndyJS said:

    Don't you believe that sticks and stones may break your bones but words can never hurt you? As Eleanor Roosevelt famously said, no-one can hurt you without your permission. Seems a pretty good philosophy of life to me.

    Like those sayings, and some truth there, but in response I give you -

    The pen is mightier than the sword.

    Or, perhaps better, it's only Words and Words are all I have to take your heart away.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,631
    Sean_F said:

    SeanT said:

    kle4 said:

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    SeanT said:

    Yes. acker, honky, doughboy, kaffir, gringo, and a pasty-eater.

    It may be hard to tell the difference sometimes, since someone would use it as an excuse evenif not the case, but there is surely a distinction between someone perhaps using an older term that used to be acceptable but is no longer but clearly meaning no offence even though they have caused it, and those who swing around racial epithets as casual insults.

    The first terminological change I can remember from being young was use of spastic, which I heard recently (I cannot confirm) is not considered as offensive in the US as it is here now.
    Spaz was one of my favorite insults as a kid. And an adult.

    I think the answer to this is that we should all be able to say whatever we like without fear. Let the blacks say cracker, let the Muslims say kaffir, let the whites say nigger, let the Jews say goy, let the goys say Kike, let the Thais say farang, let the spics say gringos. Fuck it. Let it all out, until the words have become mere words and all the words have lost the ability to offend. Same as we did with “fuck”.

    Right now we are engaged in the linguistic equivalent of Victorians shrouding piano legs in a fit of prudery. It just makes things worse, and makes everyone evermore neurotic.
    Never thought of it that way but the word "fuck" has really lost all offense. In fact most non-racial swear words have.
    I think the C-bomb still offends quite a few people.
    The C-bomb and the N-bomb are I think the only two words still routinely censored on late-night TV, allowed only occasionally and in the context of a discussion rather than as gratuitous insults.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163

    Sean_F said:

    Is there a running total of MPs confirmed voting particular ways available online?

    I think these are the switchers, so far

    Penning
    Lamont
    Pritchard
    Gray
    Halfon
    Bradley
    Evans
    Vickers
    Hands
    Syms
    Mann
    Thomas
    Blackman
    Offord
    Loughton
    Watling
    Baron
    Mercer
    Mitchell
    Crouch
    Quince
    Brady (probably)
    Davis (rumoured)
    Goldsmith (wavering)
    If we operate on the assumption that the same again might switch but not pre-announce it [seems optimistic to May TBH] that still seems to leave a defeat of about 150 looming. A 200+ defeat still seems possible.

    How can she survive a 3-figure defeat?
    I don't know how she survived the last one. I don't see how she survives a defeat of any size on this, frankly, but these idiots will oblige somehow.

    We're back to where we are in December and before the hope for the deal was raised last night - any hope she can get the loss to below 100? Without mass abstentions, which seem implausible, I still think that is not going to be easy.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,676
    Are these switchers being choreographed?
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,239
    The Aussies are doing their best to normalise the C-word. Given that the now universal short-form "uni" was introduced to Britain by Neighbours in the 1980s/1990s, I wouldn't discount the power of Australian slang influence.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,469
    edited March 2019
    BBC Radio 1 censors all these words from songs including words such as ‘weed’, ‘pussy’ and any reference to suicide, to name just some.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,580
    edited March 2019

    kle4 said:

    When even Hodges sees no point in May's strategy, boy
    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1105478190406029312

    Because No Deal will have been taken off the table by Parliament.

    The only calculation for the ERG at that point is Deal via MV3 or softer/no Brexit.

    A number (most?) of the Brexiteers voting against tonight will comfort themselves that a hard Brexit is still possible via no-deal.

    Once that comfort disappears, their calculation is very different.

    Tuesday: MV2 - lost
    Wednesday: No deal - rejected
    Thursday: MV3 + Extend for legislative processes - wins

    She just has to retain control until Thursday and it could all finally fall into place. Simples - as she said.

    The problem with that is the No Deal cannot just be rejected. It has to be replaced by something else or it remains the default. And the only thing it can really be replaced by at this point is extension, in which case all pressure on the ERG types to support the deal are removed.

    People really should stop talking about 'rejecting no deal' or 'voting against no deal'. They can't. They can only vote FOR something else which replaces No Deal.
    Having seen rejected a motion to leave with no deal tomorrow, any government that sought to bring about or allow a no deal will be no confidenced, regardless of it being a default option. At that stage parliament really will take control and install a government that will make the primary legislative changes to take no-deal off the table.

    No-deal only exists as a realistic option until is is rejected tomorrow.

    Let's just do the deal.
    That is simply wrong. If Parliament does not mandate a replacement then No Deal is what happens. It is not a case of the Government bringing it about or allowing it. It will be entirely the fault of Parliament for having failed to put in place any alternative. Parliament wanted the power and now they have it they need to decide what they are going to do with it because the clock is ticking. They either vote for an extension/revoke or vote for the deal. If they do neither then we Leave without a deal in 17 days.

    I agree entirely we should do the deal. But simply saying they are voting against No Deal puts MPs in the same league as Canute's advisors.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426

    Sean_F said:


    I think the C-bomb still offends quite a few people.

    Too right. If someone called me a Conservative I'd lamp them!
    I was assuming it was 'Corbynista.'
  • TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,878
    I lurk a lot, and post only a little but I thought tonight I’d let all at PB know that I am enjoying a lovely ham and pineapple pizza.


  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    edited March 2019
    I think we're up to around 228 Ayes, taking account of confirmed or rumoured switchers and assuming no switchers in the opposite direction.

    Penning
    Lamont
    Pritchard
    Gray
    Halfon
    Bradley
    Evans
    Vickers
    Hands
    Syms
    Mann
    Thomas
    Blackman
    Offord
    Loughton
    Watling
    Baron
    Mercer
    Mitchell
    Crouch
    Quince
    Swire
    Fabricant
    Damien Moore
    Brady (probably)
    Davis (rumoured)
    Goldsmith (wavering)
  • mwjfrome17mwjfrome17 Posts: 158

    Add Michael Fabricant to the switcher list.


    Michael Fabricant

    @Mike_Fabricant
    So, with the #DUP rejecting the Deal and the backstop, and with very little chance of it passing tonight in the House of Commons anyway, I shall vote with my heart and vote ‘No’ even though it might, just might, jeopardise #Brexit itself.
    The ‘Deal’ is far from ideal.

    122
    5:42 PM - Mar 12, 2019
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,631
    kle4 said:



    Never thought of it that way but the word "fuck" has really lost all offense. In fact most non-racial swear words have.

    I have noticed in the past few years that "shit" has become more and more common in network american tv shows airing in prime time. Perhaps a loosening of standards given the rise of HBO and other competitors where extreme vulgarity is extremely common.
    Yes, I think that started when Trump used it and the late-night shows got laughed at by their audience (and comedian presenters) for censoring it. Definitely more prevalent in the last couple of years.

    On HBO, Bill Maher got in trouble last year for an off-the-cuff use of the N-word. His show Real Time is very unusual in that it goes out completely live.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    edited March 2019

    I lurk a lot, and post only a little but I thought tonight I’d let all at PB know that I am enjoying a lovely ham and pineapple pizza.

    Civilisation and British democracy died tonight.

    And apparently there's some vote or other in the House of Commons as well.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,814
    Right, chaps. I'm off to play XCOM 2. Do have a good evening.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,780
    ydoethur said:

    Sean_F said:


    I think the C-bomb still offends quite a few people.

    Too right. If someone called me a Conservative I'd lamp them!
    I was assuming it was 'Corbynista.'
    That's a Pizza chain surely. Or at least will be when the leader of the opposition finally takes up the role to which he is most suited.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,388

    BBC Radio 1 censors all these words from songs including words such as ‘weed’, ‘pussy’ and any reference to suicide, to name just some.

    It always used to make me laugh how "drugs" and "ass" got censored from Nickleback's song Rock Star, on BBC radio.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,653

    Add Michael Fabricant to the switcher list.

    Are you sure?

    https://twitter.com/mike_fabricant/status/1105524580272295941?s=21
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,042

    I lurk a lot, and post only a little but I thought tonight I’d let all at PB know that I am enjoying a lovely ham and pineapple pizza.


    Looks yum. Alas, with my "Cheese Free March" such delights are on my banned list.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,042
    ydoethur said:

    Sean_F said:


    I think the C-bomb still offends quite a few people.

    Too right. If someone called me a Conservative I'd lamp them!
    I was assuming it was 'Corbynista.'
    LOL!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163

    Add Michael Fabricant to the switcher list.


    Michael Fabricant

    @Mike_Fabricant
    So, with the #DUP rejecting the Deal and the backstop, and with very little chance of it passing tonight in the House of Commons anyway, I shall vote with my heart and vote ‘No’ even though it might, just might, jeopardise #Brexit itself.
    The ‘Deal’ is far from ideal.

    122
    5:42 PM - Mar 12, 2019
    It's 'far from ideal' and therefore must be refected even though it 'might' jeopardize Brexit itself? Everyone needs to weigh up risks they are prepared to accept, but it seems mighty off to me to essentially say Brexit not happening is better than a non ideal Brexit.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,469
    Sean_F said:

    BBC Radio 1 censors all these words from songs including words such as ‘weed’, ‘pussy’ and any reference to suicide, to name just some.

    It always used to make me laugh how "drugs" and "ass" got censored from Nickleback's song Rock Star, on BBC radio.
    There was a rather excellent song on the playlist recently from an up and coming american artist called King Princess who sings about sexuality and gender. Radio 1 referred to it simply as ‘PiG’.

    The song is called ‘Pussy is God’.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,676
    Sean_F said:

    BBC Radio 1 censors all these words from songs including words such as ‘weed’, ‘pussy’ and any reference to suicide, to name just some.

    It always used to make me laugh how "drugs" and "ass" got censored from Nickleback's song Rock Star, on BBC radio.
    On BBC subtitles there is a substitution list for obscene words. My favourite was ‘my other fur coat’
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    Omnium said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sean_F said:


    I think the C-bomb still offends quite a few people.

    Too right. If someone called me a Conservative I'd lamp them!
    I was assuming it was 'Corbynista.'
    That's a Pizza chain surely. Or at least will be when the leader of the opposition finally takes up the role to which he is most suited.
    Well, he's been cheesing me off for a while, so I can see why you think it would suit him.

    But I dunno. He would order every pizza to have pineapple on it and claim anyone who asked for pepperoni was in the pay of the international financiers, most of them Zionists, out to ruin his business.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821

    Add Michael Fabricant to the switcher list.

    Are you sure?

    https://twitter.com/mike_fabricant/status/1105524580272295941?s=21
    Ah, I made the mistake of reading the Guardian's take on his tweet rather than the tweet itself. Sorry for spreading fake news!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    edited March 2019
    Sandpit said:

    kle4 said:



    Never thought of it that way but the word "fuck" has really lost all offense. In fact most non-racial swear words have.

    I have noticed in the past few years that "shit" has become more and more common in network american tv shows airing in prime time. Perhaps a loosening of standards given the rise of HBO and other competitors where extreme vulgarity is extremely common.
    Yes, I think that started when Trump used it and the late-night shows got laughed at by their audience (and comedian presenters) for censoring it. Definitely more prevalent in the last couple of years.

    On HBO, Bill Maher got in trouble last year for an off-the-cuff use of the N-word. His show Real Time is very unusual in that it goes out completely live.
    Goes back a bit further than Trump. I recall it being used, not liberally, but pretty casually, in the early seasons of the Duchess of Sussex's old show. May well have increased even more though. I think the stigma of shit is gone.

    Which is good, because we have some shit politicians and should be able to say it live.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    Jonathan said:

    Sean_F said:

    BBC Radio 1 censors all these words from songs including words such as ‘weed’, ‘pussy’ and any reference to suicide, to name just some.

    It always used to make me laugh how "drugs" and "ass" got censored from Nickleback's song Rock Star, on BBC radio.
    On BBC subtitles there is a substitution list for obscene words. My favourite was ‘my other fur coat’
    Dura Ace's Yorkshire terrier was better.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,676

    Add Michael Fabricant to the switcher list.

    Are you sure?

    https://twitter.com/mike_fabricant/status/1105524580272295941?s=21
    Ah, I made the mistake of reading the Guardian's take on his tweet rather than the tweet itself. Sorry for spreading fake news!
    Have you considered working for Sky News. Never wrong for long.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,254
    kle4 said:

    It is, but it is not everything either, and the reaction to use of offensive language does need to be proportionate, as not all incidences will be of the same level. Overdoing it on, say, an innocent if ignorant slip, might give cover to someone far more deliberate and vile to claim the same overreaction is happening to them.

    Yes, absolutely right. If you go ballistic over something quite minor you give yourself nowhere to go when something far more serious comes along.

    It's similar to marital disputes in that sense. If you berate your spouse for hours because he or she has ordered the wrong takeaway, what do you do when they forget your birthday?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,388
    kle4 said:

    Add Michael Fabricant to the switcher list.


    Michael Fabricant

    @Mike_Fabricant
    So, with the #DUP rejecting the Deal and the backstop, and with very little chance of it passing tonight in the House of Commons anyway, I shall vote with my heart and vote ‘No’ even though it might, just might, jeopardise #Brexit itself.
    The ‘Deal’ is far from ideal.

    122
    5:42 PM - Mar 12, 2019
    It's 'far from ideal' and therefore must be refected even though it 'might' jeopardize Brexit itself? Everyone needs to weigh up risks they are prepared to accept, but it seems mighty off to me to essentially say Brexit not happening is better than a non ideal Brexit.
    He's outsourced his decision-making to the DUP.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    kinabalu said:

    kle4 said:

    It is, but it is not everything either, and the reaction to use of offensive language does need to be proportionate, as not all incidences will be of the same level. Overdoing it on, say, an innocent if ignorant slip, might give cover to someone far more deliberate and vile to claim the same overreaction is happening to them.

    Yes, absolutely right. If you go ballistic over something quite minor you give yourself nowhere to go when something far more serious comes along.

    It's similar to marital disputes in that sense. If you berate your spouse for hours because he or she has ordered the wrong takeaway, what do you do when they forget your birthday?
    Order a pineapple pizza and make them eat it.

    Two for one.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    Sean_F said:

    kle4 said:

    Add Michael Fabricant to the switcher list.


    Michael Fabricant

    @Mike_Fabricant
    So, with the #DUP rejecting the Deal and the backstop, and with very little chance of it passing tonight in the House of Commons anyway, I shall vote with my heart and vote ‘No’ even though it might, just might, jeopardise #Brexit itself.
    The ‘Deal’ is far from ideal.

    122
    5:42 PM - Mar 12, 2019
    It's 'far from ideal' and therefore must be refected even though it 'might' jeopardize Brexit itself? Everyone needs to weigh up risks they are prepared to accept, but it seems mighty off to me to essentially say Brexit not happening is better than a non ideal Brexit.
    He's outsourced his decision-making to the DUP.
    In fairness, they are an awful lot brighter than he is.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,042

    Sean_F said:

    BBC Radio 1 censors all these words from songs including words such as ‘weed’, ‘pussy’ and any reference to suicide, to name just some.

    It always used to make me laugh how "drugs" and "ass" got censored from Nickleback's song Rock Star, on BBC radio.
    There was a rather excellent song on the playlist recently from an up and coming american artist called King Princess who sings about sexuality and gender. Radio 1 referred to it simply as ‘PiG’.

    The song is called ‘Pussy is God’.
    A reference to ancient Egypt, where cats were deified?
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    SeanT said:

    kle4 said:

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    SeanT said:

    Yes, I know why it is offensive. It implies whiteness is the default and normal setting. Plus it was used during the era of everyday racism. Yawn. Next question.

    Ahound it.
    Because whether a word is a slur is based on usage, not something you can derive purely from etymology.
    But what usage? Racists have never said "coloured woman," they say "n-gg-r" - unless you can point us to some counter examples. And anyway "of colour" is close enough to "coloured" that if one is offensive they both are.
    Isn

    As someone pointed out last week this seems to me to be more of a basic principle of good manners.
    Spot on. This really is a tedious discussion. Grown men like SeanT and RichardN really ought to be able to manage this. I'm surprised they find it such a struggle.

    I dbook.
    I can't imagine any non-gammon using the term orientals here either.
    Yes. acker, honky, doughboy, kaffir, gringo, and a pasty-eater.

    It may be hard to tell the difference sometimes, since someone would use it as an excuse evenif not the case, but there is surely a distinction between someone perhaps using an older term that used to be acceptable but is no longer but clearly meaning no offence even though they have caused it, and those who swing around racial epithets as casual insults.

    The first terminological change I can remember from being young was use of spastic, which I heard recently (I cannot confirm) is not considered as offensive in the US as it is here now.
    Spaz was one of my favorite insults as a kid. And an adult.

    I

    Right now we are engaged in the linguistic equivalent of Victorians shrouding piano legs in a fit of prudery. It just makes things worse, and makes everyone evermore neurotic.
    Never thought of it that way but the word "fuck" has really lost all offense. In fact most non-racial swear words have.
    I disagree there. Many people find the F--- and C--- words every bit as offensive as was true in the 1950s. When I hear such words used, I immediately assume I am in the company of 'riff raff' and the dregs of society.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,631

    BBC Radio 1 censors all these words from songs including words such as ‘weed’, ‘pussy’ and any reference to suicide, to name just some.

    There's been a bunch of very funny censored song lyrics over the years, in recent times Eminem had the words "King", "Head", "Four". "Boy", "Attourney", "Flag", "White House", "Cops", "Pigs" and a load more changed for radio versions. Innocuous enough, but changed the meanings of sentences when removed or edited.

    https://forum.sectioneighty.com/list-of-eminem-songs-that-have-censored-lines-even-in-the-explicit-version.t39822
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,469

    Sean_F said:

    BBC Radio 1 censors all these words from songs including words such as ‘weed’, ‘pussy’ and any reference to suicide, to name just some.

    It always used to make me laugh how "drugs" and "ass" got censored from Nickleback's song Rock Star, on BBC radio.
    There was a rather excellent song on the playlist recently from an up and coming american artist called King Princess who sings about sexuality and gender. Radio 1 referred to it simply as ‘PiG’.

    The song is called ‘Pussy is God’.
    A reference to ancient Egypt, where cats were deified?
    All art is open to interpretation!
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    edited March 2019
    Sandpit said:

    kle4 said:



    Never thought of it that way but the word "fuck" has really lost all offense. In fact most non-racial swear words have.

    I have noticed in the past few years that "shit" has become more and more common in network american tv shows airing in prime time. Perhaps a loosening of standards given the rise of HBO and other competitors where extreme vulgarity is extremely common.
    Yes, I think that started when Trump used it and the late-night shows got laughed at by their audience (and comedian presenters) for censoring it. Definitely more prevalent in the last couple of years.

    On HBO, Bill Maher got in trouble last year for an off-the-cuff use of the N-word. His show Real Time is very unusual in that it goes out completely live.
    "Shit" remains one of the seven dirty words the FCC bans from FTA broadcasts, so if anyone's heard it in an American import, it's either come from a subscription cable channel or was bleeped on American TV.

    HBO, as a purely subscription service, can and does broadcast any profanity it likes.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,388
    ydoethur said:

    Sean_F said:

    kle4 said:

    Add Michael Fabricant to the switcher list.


    Michael Fabricant

    @Mike_Fabricant
    So, with the #DUP rejecting the Deal and the backstop, and with very little chance of it passing tonight in the House of Commons anyway, I shall vote with my heart and vote ‘No’ even though it might, just might, jeopardise #Brexit itself.
    The ‘Deal’ is far from ideal.

    122
    5:42 PM - Mar 12, 2019
    It's 'far from ideal' and therefore must be refected even though it 'might' jeopardize Brexit itself? Everyone needs to weigh up risks they are prepared to accept, but it seems mighty off to me to essentially say Brexit not happening is better than a non ideal Brexit.
    He's outsourced his decision-making to the DUP.
    In fairness, they are an awful lot brighter than he is.
    That is so. Even Sammy Wilson.
  • notme2notme2 Posts: 1,006
    Sandpit said:

    Sean_F said:

    SeanT said:

    kle4 said:

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    SeanT said:

    Yes. acker, honky, doughboy, kaffir, gringo, and a pasty-eater.

    It may be hard to tell the difference sometimes, since someone would use it as an excuse evenif not the case, but there is surely a distinction between someone perhaps using an older term that used to be acceptable but is no longer but clearly meaning no offence even though they have caused it, and those who swing around racial epithets as casual insults.

    The first terminological change I can remember from being young was use of spastic, which I heard recently (I cannot confirm) is not considered as offensive in the US as it is here now.
    Spaz was one of my favorite insults as a kid. And an adult.

    I think the answer to this is that we should all be able to say whatever we like without fear. Let the blacks say cracker, let the Muslims say kaffir, let the whites say nigger, let the Jews say goy, let the goys say Kike, let the Thais say farang, let the spics say gringos. Fuck it. Let it all out, until the words have become mere words and all the words have lost the ability to offend. Same as we did with “fuck”.

    Right now we are engaged in the linguistic equivalent of Victorians shrouding piano legs in a fit of prudery. It just makes things worse, and makes everyone evermore neurotic.
    Never thought of it that way but the word "fuck" has really lost all offense. In fact most non-racial swear words have.
    I think the C-bomb still offends quite a few people.
    The C-bomb and the N-bomb are I think the only two words still routinely censored on late-night TV, allowed only occasionally and in the context of a discussion rather than as gratuitous insults.
    On Netflix ‘after life’ which is very good by the way, the c word is probably used between ten and thirty times an episode.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,631
    edited March 2019
    rpjs said:

    Sandpit said:

    kle4 said:



    Never thought of it that way but the word "fuck" has really lost all offense. In fact most non-racial swear words have.

    I have noticed in the past few years that "shit" has become more and more common in network american tv shows airing in prime time. Perhaps a loosening of standards given the rise of HBO and other competitors where extreme vulgarity is extremely common.
    Yes, I think that started when Trump used it and the late-night shows got laughed at by their audience (and comedian presenters) for censoring it. Definitely more prevalent in the last couple of years.

    On HBO, Bill Maher got in trouble last year for an off-the-cuff use of the N-word. His show Real Time is very unusual in that it goes out completely live.
    "Shit" remains one of the seven dirty words the FCC bans from FTA broadcasts, so if you're heard it in an American import, it's either come from a subscription cable channel or was bleeped on American TV.

    HBO, as a purely subscription service, can and does broadcast any profanity it likes.
    The likes of Stephen Colbert and The Daily Show now get away with the occasional shit, so to speak. I think it dates from Trump's use of "Shithole countries". It may be that the 'cable' versions don't get bleeped and the 'OTA' versions do.
  • SeanTSeanT Posts: 549
    Interesting on female voices - literally - in politics

    https://twitter.com/carolineslocock/status/1105530308424880128?s=21

    And with that, a final kapkap from Bangkok. Good luck, Britain, I shall be asleep while you vote.
  • Add Tracey Crouch to the switcher list.

    Pm in waiting to those in the know...
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    Stop confusing them with facts, m'sieur!

    It's as unfair and unreasonable as asking a French farmer why they hid 60% of all the world's known cases of BSE for 25 years.
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789

    Add Michael Fabricant to the switcher list.

    Are you sure?

    https://twitter.com/mike_fabricant/status/1105524580272295941?s=21
    They’re paid to vote with their heads, not their hearts. If we wanted gurning, emoting One Show presenters as MPs we’d be better going to the primary source. Moron.
  • notme2notme2 Posts: 1,006
    AndyJS said:

    Some people today are more offended by the use of certain word than by a physical attack between say two people of the same racial background. Something must have gone wrong if that's the situation.


    It’s all about virtue. Nothing else. Faux offence as a weapon. If you get offended by someone using a clumsy word, but meaning no offence by it, it says more about you. The pile in on Amber Rudd is a reminder that you cannot placate the left. The still hate you as a Tory and will use anything and everything to take you down.
This discussion has been closed.