I suspect the HoC will vote for a technical exit (stay in customs union and single market) or a 2nd referendum, neither of which the current administration will be able to enact.
With the EU seemingly clear no extension beyond May.
Time for a GE.
err - when and what does that gain us?
It might get MPs willing to pass something.
In any case there's going to be a GE soon because this government is barely functioning as it is and things are going to steadily decline.
Sigh. No it really isn't. What will be surrender is ending up staying in the EU because the headbangers were unwilling to compromise on anything but the purists of Brexits.
The deal without a backstop still wouldn't have been the purist of the Brexits. There were a number of other objections to the deal such as committing to spending billions without any trade agreement sorted first. However Brexiteers were willing to compromise on all their other objections so long as just one objection was resolved. The EU refused to compromise on anything.
Sorry but bricking up the English Channel would not have been enough for some in the ERG, if they tend up with the revocation of Article 50 and no Brexit at all it will be no more than they deserve
Sorry but that's ludicrous hyperbole. There was a vote on backing the deal if the backstop was dealt with and there were only 8 Tory headbanger MPs who opposed that. They were:
Heidi Allen, Guto Bebb, Ken Clarke, Dominic Grieve, Phillip Lee, Anne Marie Morris, Anna Soubry, Sarah Wollaston
Absolutely all of those are extremists but the only extremist on that list from the ERG is I believe Anne Marie Morris.
The backstop was effectively dealt with yesterday but the fanatics still would not compromise, now they will have to find out the hard way, if they will not compromise nor will Remainers
Not an iota of change to the backstop was changed.
Perhaps not, but the fact that it would be impossible to permanently trap the UK in it against its will was very clearly demonstrated. They have quite possibly thrown away Brexit on a legal irrelevance.
No it wasn't. The final paragraph showed that was entirely possible.
As as Cox made entirely clear in his statement this afternoon, resiling from the agreement would remain within the power of any government. As I say, quibbling over an irrelevance in the scheme of things.
Can the ERG etc filibusters removing no deal or changing the date in Brexit legislation? Genuine question. They will need to talk it out for about a week.
No, as May has granted the vote
What if the Leavers like Leadsom resigned from the cabinet In a week or two creating a crisis in the governments mechanics? Hard to schedule legislation in time if the government is not functioning.
Mogg looks like he has a plan. I wonder what it is.
Mogg's got nothing.
He's a posturer.
To be fair on the double breasted string bean, even the ERG votes wouldnt have been enough to get over the line. May as well be hung for a sheep as a lamb.
If the Commons has a whopping majority against leaving with no deal, the Govt says well there's no better deal out there then presumably the logical next step of the Govt is to ask for an extension in order to either have another referendum and/or to put a vote to the commons for revocation of article 50 asap?
The options TMay laid out after losing tonight only lead one way? I don't see Brexit happening now.
No its over and the anti-democrats have won. May will be directed to revoke Article 50 within the next few days.
Better than this deal.
If so we get a new PM and then they can invoked A50 again and this time plan all along for No Deal if we can't get an acceptable one, as this PM should have done from the start.
Who's going to be the new PM to invoke A50 ?
I don't see many of the ERG willing to step up and face some reality, take some responsibility and do some work.
Sigh. No it really isn't. What will be surrender is ending up staying in the EU because the headbangers were unwilling to compromise on anything but the purists of Brexits.
The deal without a backstop still wouldn't have been the purist of the Brexits. There were a number of other objections to the deal such as committing to spending billions without any trade agreement sorted first. However Brexiteers were willing to compromise on all their other objections so long as just one objection was resolved. The EU refused to compromise on anything.
Sorry but bricking up the English Channel would not have been enough for some in the ERG, if they tend up with the revocation of Article 50 and no Brexit at all it will be no more than they deserve
Sorry but that's ludicrous hyperbole. There was a vote on backing the deal if the backstop was dealt with and there were only 8 Tory headbanger MPs who opposed that. They were:
Heidi Allen, Guto Bebb, Ken Clarke, Dominic Grieve, Phillip Lee, Anne Marie Morris, Anna Soubry, Sarah Wollaston
Absolutely all of those are extremists but the only extremist on that list from the ERG is I believe Anne Marie Morris.
The backstop was effectively dealt with yesterday but the fanatics still would not compromise, now they will have to find out the hard way, if they will not compromise nor will Remainers
Not an iota of change to the backstop was changed.
Perhaps not, but the fact that it would be impossible to permanently trap the UK in it against its will was very clearly demonstrated. They have quite possibly thrown away Brexit on a legal irrelevance.
No it wasn't. The final paragraph showed that was entirely possible.
I always enjoyed tightly drafting documents so that the parties were directed down a certain course of action but without explicitly saying so. Then a slightly dim, though surprisingly senior individual would fail to understand and one would need to add, “for the avoidance of doubt....” which them alerted all sides to what was happening. Congratulations on being 50% of that individual.
I suspect the HoC will vote for a technical exit (stay in customs union and single market) or a 2nd referendum, neither of which the current administration will be able to enact.
What do you think happens then?
General Election. May either calls another early one or is compelled to do so.
Or she resigns, and something weird happens like a VoNC and an alternative administration for navigating the Brexit process takes over instead that commands a level of cross party support.
Can the ERG etc filibusters removing no deal or changing the date in Brexit legislation? Genuine question. They will need to talk it out for about a week.
No, as May has granted the vote
What if the Leavers like Leadsom resigned from the cabinet In a week or two creating a crisis in the governments mechanics? Hard to schedule legislation in time if the government is not functioning.
Mogg looks like he has a plan. I wonder what it is.
Support a vote of no confidence in the Government? If they brought down May without an extension then it would be a No Deal Brexit.
If the Commons has a whopping majority against leaving with no deal, the Govt says well there's no better deal out there then presumably the logical next step of the Govt is to ask for an extension in order to either have another referendum and/or to put a vote to the commons for revocation of article 50 asap?
The options TMay laid out after losing tonight only lead one way? I don't see Brexit happening now.
No its over and the anti-democrats have won. May will be directed to revoke Article 50 within the next few days.
Then the government collapses and we get the crap shoot of an election.
If the Commons has a whopping majority against leaving with no deal, the Govt says well there's no better deal out there then presumably the logical next step of the Govt is to ask for an extension in order to either have another referendum and/or to put a vote to the commons for revocation of article 50 asap?
The options TMay laid out after losing tonight only lead one way? I don't see Brexit happening now.
No its over and the anti-democrats have won. May will be directed to revoke Article 50 within the next few days.
Better than this deal.
If so we get a new PM and then they can invoked A50 again and this time plan all along for No Deal if we can't get an acceptable one, as this PM should have done from the start.
No chance mate.... you think a no-dealer is ever going to command a majority in the house???
I suspect some of the potential Tory switchers switched back when they realised the deal was going down big; voting against just to keep their constituency parties happy.
Can the ERG etc filibusters removing no deal or changing the date in Brexit legislation? Genuine question. They will need to talk it out for about a week.
No, as May has granted the vote
What if the Leavers like Leadsom resigned from the cabinet In a week or two creating a crisis in the governments mechanics? Hard to schedule legislation in time if the government is not functioning.
Mogg looks like he has a plan. I wonder what it is.
Who cares what Leadsom does, over half the Cabinet would resign without a No Deal vote.
The only plan Mogg seems to be succeeding in bringing closer is getting Brexit cancelled
To stop no deal the government has to pass legislation. That is hard to do against the clock if the government is not functioning. Could the governments attempt to amend the leaving date be disrupted by guerilla tactics by Leavers in the govt or the backbenches?
The Lords could certainly slow the process down appreciably, were they to be so inclined. Up against an immovable deadline, they’d probably be asked to sit through the night though, which I don’t imagine many of them would want.
The EU will grant an extension but for two months max . If the UK wants to extend after that then it will have to be for another EU ref or general election .
The media are desperately trying to big up the EU not granting the two month extension but they won’t want to be blamed for no deal .
I was wrong. I thought ERG would recognise last chance saloon when in one. I don’t understand.
The brexit on the table from May and Eu was a hard brexit, not a soft brexit. Brexiteers pushed it all the way to wring out every ounce of hard brexit. But then they didn’t cash in. They didn’t take the lolly. I don’t understand it. I really don’t understand how the ERG could take it all the way to get hardest brexit they are ever going to get, and not bank it. The moment to switch from poker face to walking out with the pot was there, and they didn’t take it. They are now alone at the table with no money on it. I don’t understand them.
In this years brexit ref it’s 20 million remain, 14 million or less for leave, . It’s a long way back for brexiteers from this moment. tell me I’m wrong. If science is true and unique golden brexit generation is dying off, There may never be a way back for brexit.
Brexit was hard won. It was there on the table for them to walk off with and they didn’t take it. I don’t understand.
Well you have been wrong on just about every other number you put up on here so you will certainly be wrong on those ones.
If there is a referendum I expect Remain will get far fewer votes than last time and Leave will run with an abstention campaign to delegitimise the whole process. After that the country will be ungovernable for the next few decades.
If the Commons has a whopping majority against leaving with no deal, the Govt says well there's no better deal out there then presumably the logical next step of the Govt is to ask for an extension in order to either have another referendum and/or to put a vote to the commons for revocation of article 50 asap?
The options TMay laid out after losing tonight only lead one way? I don't see Brexit happening now.
No its over and the anti-democrats have won. May will be directed to revoke Article 50 within the next few days.
Better than this deal.
If so we get a new PM and then they can invoked A50 again and this time plan all along for No Deal if we can't get an acceptable one, as this PM should have done from the start.
If we get off this crazy ride only the true nutters would want to go round again.
If May goes back to the EU, asks for more time, but doesn't have a credible strategy of how the extension might break the deadlock, how likely will it be that the EU will take a collective deep breath and say 'sorry, but we need certainty and stability before upcoming elections and we'll take the economic hit. Good buy and best of British'
It seems as if the EU are in the driving seat now. Either we vote for Christmas, or the EU forces Christmas on March 29...
Yvette Cooper going on about uncertainty really bugged me but she had thought through to the next stage which others picked up on as well.
If there is an overwhelming majority against no deal (which there will be) will the government introduce primary legislation to remove the default position currently in the legislation. Will they be able to do that with revocation at the same time given that it is our Treaty with the EU that means we leave on 29th March, not actually our domestic legislation?
I was wrong. I thought ERG would recognise last chance saloon when in one. I don’t understand.
The brexit on the table from May and Eu was a hard brexit, not a soft brexit. Brexiteers pushed it all the way to wring out every ounce of hard brexit. But then they didn’t cash in. They didn’t take the lolly. I don’t understand it. I really don’t understand how the ERG could take it all the way to get hardest brexit they are ever going to get, and not bank it. The moment to switch from poker face to walking out with the pot was there, and they didn’t take it. They are now alone at the table with no money on it. I don’t understand them.
In this years brexit ref it’s 20 million remain, 14 million or less for leave, . It’s a long way back for brexiteers from this moment. tell me I’m wrong. If science is true and unique golden brexit generation is dying off, There may never be a way back for brexit.
Brexit was hard won. It was there on the table for them to walk off with and they didn’t take it. I don’t understand.
Well you have been wrong on just about every other number you put up on here so you will certainly be wrong on those ones.
If there is a referendum I expect Remain will get far fewer votes than last time and Leave will run with an abstention campaign to delegitimise the whole process. After that the country will be ungovernable for the next few decades.
And Remain will win, and we'll move on and no-one worry too much.
Most people are not political, they just want the trains to run on time, and to see a doctor easily...
Can the ERG etc filibusters removing no deal or changing the date in Brexit legislation? Genuine question. They will need to talk it out for about a week.
No, as May has granted the vote
What if the Leavers like Leadsom resigned from the cabinet In a week or two creating a crisis in the governments mechanics? Hard to schedule legislation in time if the government is not functioning.
Mogg looks like he has a plan. I wonder what it is.
Who cares what Leadsom does, over half the Cabinet would resign without a No Deal vote.
The only plan Mogg seems to be succeeding in bringing closer is getting Brexit cancelled
To stop no deal the government has to pass legislation. That is hard to do against the clock if the government is not functioning. Could the governments attempt to amend the leaving date be disrupted by guerilla tactics by Leavers in the govt or the backbenches?
Only if the opposition also co-operate in the disruption.
If May goes back to the EU, asks for more time, but doesn't have a credible strategy of how the extension might break the deadlock, how likely will it be that the EU will take a collective deep breath and say 'sorry, but we need certainty and stability before upcoming elections and we'll take the economic hit. Good buy and best of British'
It seems as if the EU are in the driving seat now. Either we vote for Christmas, or the EU forces Christmas on March 29...
I am genuinely stunned. The ERG are morons. Utter morons.
Yep.
Never, in the history of politics, can there have been a better example of 'the best being the enemy of the good'.
Quite incredible.
Quite predictable.
I thought I was hanging out with Michael Goves, Geoffrey Coxs, and Stephen Barclays, influenced by the pragmatism of Robert Smithsons.
It turns out I was also hanging out with Andrew Lilicos, Andrea Jenkyns, Steve Bakers and Michael Fabricants, agitated by ultra ideologues and the likes of Aaron Banks.
If the Commons has a whopping majority against leaving with no deal, the Govt says well there's no better deal out there then presumably the logical next step of the Govt is to ask for an extension in order to either have another referendum and/or to put a vote to the commons for revocation of article 50 asap?
The options TMay laid out after losing tonight only lead one way? I don't see Brexit happening now.
No its over and the anti-democrats have won. May will be directed to revoke Article 50 within the next few days.
Better than this deal.
If so we get a new PM and then they can invoked A50 again and this time plan all along for No Deal if we can't get an acceptable one, as this PM should have done from the start.
No chance mate.... you think a no-dealer is ever going to command a majority in the house???
If they become Tory leader then they can go to the polls to get a majority.
If die-hard Remainers walk out of the party to the Tiggers because a no-dealer has become PM then that makes it all the more possible that an elected majority will include a majority willing to countenance no deal. Especially no deal after 2 years of preparations which A50 gives us.
I am genuinely stunned. The ERG are morons. Utter morons.
Yep.
Never, in the history of politics, can there have been a better example of 'the best being the enemy of the good'.
Quite incredible.
Quite predictable.
I thought I was hanging out with Michael Goves, Geoffrey Coxs, and Stephen Barclays, influenced by the pragmatism of Robert Smithsons.
It turns out I was also hanging out with Andrew Lilicos, Andrea Jenkyns, Steve Bakers and Michael Fabricants, agitated by ultra ideologues and the likes of Aaron Banks.
Indeed...There was a sensible Brexit out there, and the head bangers blew it all up.
Can the ERG etc filibusters removing no deal or changing the date in Brexit legislation? Genuine question. They will need to talk it out for about a week.
No, as May has granted the vote
What if the Leavers like Leadsom resigned from the cabinet In a week or two creating a crisis in the governments mechanics? Hard to schedule legislation in time if the government is not functioning.
Mogg looks like he has a plan. I wonder what it is.
Who cares what Leadsom does, over half the Cabinet would resign without a No Deal vote.
The only plan Mogg seems to be succeeding in bringing closer is getting Brexit cancelled
To stop no deal the government has to pass legislation. That is hard to do against the clock if the government is not functioning. Could the governments attempt to amend the leaving date be disrupted by guerilla tactics by Leavers in the govt or the backbenches?
The Lords could certainly slow the process down appreciably, were they to be so inclined. Up against an immovable deadline, they’d probably be asked to sit through the night though, which I don’t imagine many of them would want.
Assuming that amendments to the leaving date are tabled next week, leaving about eight normal sitting days before Bday, are there guerilla tactics that could talk it out?
TMay "has not discussed resignation." Which seems utterly bizarre. She may have concluded there was no one else, that she wished to continue, that she was best placed, etc. But not discussed?
Can the ERG etc filibusters removing no deal or changing the date in Brexit legislation? Genuine question. They will need to talk it out for about a week.
No, as May has granted the vote
What if the Leavers like Leadsom resigned from the cabinet In a week or two creating a crisis in the governments mechanics? Hard to schedule legislation in time if the government is not functioning.
Mogg looks like he has a plan. I wonder what it is.
Who cares what Leadsom does, over half the Cabinet would resign without a No Deal vote.
The only plan Mogg seems to be succeeding in bringing closer is getting Brexit cancelled
To stop no deal the government has to pass legislation. That is hard to do against the clock if the government is not functioning. Could the governments attempt to amend the leaving date be disrupted by guerilla tactics by Leavers in the govt or the backbenches?
Only if the opposition also co-operate in the disruption.
TMay "has not discussed resignation." Which seems utterly bizarre. She may have concluded there was no one else, that she wished to continue, that she was best placed, etc. But not discussed?
She doesn't discuss anything else, so why start with resignation.
If the Commons has a whopping majority against leaving with no deal, the Govt says well there's no better deal out there then presumably the logical next step of the Govt is to ask for an extension in order to either have another referendum and/or to put a vote to the commons for revocation of article 50 asap?
The options TMay laid out after losing tonight only lead one way? I don't see Brexit happening now.
No its over and the anti-democrats have won. May will be directed to revoke Article 50 within the next few days.
Better than this deal.
If so we get a new PM and then they can invoked A50 again and this time plan all along for No Deal if we can't get an acceptable one, as this PM should have done from the start.
You're absolutely delusional. Once A50 is revoked we won't leave for 20-30 years or if the EU collapses.
From the start the only ones who could destroy Brexit is bizarely the ERG.
Remainers always needed them to act like the lunatics they are . I still can’t see another EU vote but more likely a softer Brexit but we live in strange times .
If the Commons has a whopping majority against leaving with no deal, the Govt says well there's no better deal out there then presumably the logical next step of the Govt is to ask for an extension in order to either have another referendum and/or to put a vote to the commons for revocation of article 50 asap?
The options TMay laid out after losing tonight only lead one way? I don't see Brexit happening now.
No its over and the anti-democrats have won. May will be directed to revoke Article 50 within the next few days.
Better than this deal.
If so we get a new PM and then they can invoked A50 again and this time plan all along for No Deal if we can't get an acceptable one, as this PM should have done from the start.
No chance mate.... you think a no-dealer is ever going to command a majority in the house???
If they become Tory leader then they can go to the polls to get a majority.
If die-hard Remainers walk out of the party to the Tiggers because a no-dealer has become PM then that makes it all the more possible that an elected majority will include a majority willing to countenance no deal. Especially no deal after 2 years of preparations which A50 gives us.
Oh FFS...the Tories would be ***ked like a dock side hooker and you know it.
I hate Corbyn, and I would vote Labour to stop a no-deal happening. It's economic suicide, and everyone knows it.
I am genuinely stunned. The ERG are morons. Utter morons.
Yep.
Never, in the history of politics, can there have been a better example of 'the best being the enemy of the good'.
Quite incredible.
Quite predictable.
I thought I was hanging out with Michael Goves, Geoffrey Coxs, and Stephen Barclays, influenced by the pragmatism of Robert Smithsons.
It turns out I was also hanging out with Andrew Lilicos, Andrea Jenkyns, Steve Bakers and Michael Fabricants, agitated by ultra ideologues and the likes of Aaron Banks.
Indeed...There was a sensible Brexit out there, and the head bangers blew it all up.
And even more bizarrely, they have blown it up for a Brexit ideal that they did not themselves personally believe in or argue for two years ago. They have hardened as time passes, whipping each other into more and more ridiculous positions.
If May goes back to the EU, asks for more time, but doesn't have a credible strategy of how the extension might break the deadlock, how likely will it be that the EU will take a collective deep breath and say 'sorry, but we need certainty and stability before upcoming elections and we'll take the economic hit. Good buy and best of British'
It seems as if the EU are in the driving seat now. Either we vote for Christmas, or the EU forces Christmas on March 29...
Then we revoke. This is not an unlikely scenario.
But who revokes? Surely if the EU turns around and doesn't grant an extension, there would need to be a vote to revoke. I guess you are saying there is a majority in the HoC for revoke?
I suspect the HoC will vote for a technical exit (stay in customs union and single market) or a 2nd referendum, neither of which the current administration will be able to enact.
I don't think that there will be a majority for that unless it is time limited. It is simply the worst of all worlds as a long term solution. The soft leave and remainer Tories will be wary of it as it is basically the policy fig-leaf for the Labour front bench and not to be taken seriously.
TMay "has not discussed resignation." Which seems utterly bizarre. She may have concluded there was no one else, that she wished to continue, that she was best placed, etc. But not discussed?
Almost the only thing that could make the current situation worse is to put Boris in charge of it.
If the Commons has a whopping majority against leaving with no deal, the Govt says well there's no better deal out there then presumably the logical next step of the Govt is to ask for an extension in order to either have another referendum and/or to put a vote to the commons for revocation of article 50 asap?
The options TMay laid out after losing tonight only lead one way? I don't see Brexit happening now.
No its over and the anti-democrats have won. May will be directed to revoke Article 50 within the next few days.
Better than this deal.
If so we get a new PM and then they can invoked A50 again and this time plan all along for No Deal if we can't get an acceptable one, as this PM should have done from the start.
No chance mate.... you think a no-dealer is ever going to command a majority in the house???
If they become Tory leader then they can go to the polls to get a majority.
If die-hard Remainers walk out of the party to the Tiggers because a no-dealer has become PM then that makes it all the more possible that an elected majority will include a majority willing to countenance no deal. Especially no deal after 2 years of preparations which A50 gives us.
Oh FFS...the Tories would be ***ked like a dock side hooker and you know it.
I hate Corbyn, and I would vote Labour to stop a no-deal happening. It's economic suicide, and everyone knows it.
TMay "has not discussed resignation." Which seems utterly bizarre. She may have concluded there was no one else, that she wished to continue, that she was best placed, etc. But not discussed?
She doesn't discuss anything else, so why start with resignation.
Good point well made. Was making the error of applying logic for a moment there.
If May goes back to the EU, asks for more time, but doesn't have a credible strategy of how the extension might break the deadlock, how likely will it be that the EU will take a collective deep breath and say 'sorry, but we need certainty and stability before upcoming elections and we'll take the economic hit. Good buy and best of British'
It seems as if the EU are in the driving seat now. Either we vote for Christmas, or the EU forces Christmas on March 29...
I guess the EU will insist on a long extension, perhaps an indefinite one.
This will probably be the wisest course for them - a short extension would be pointless and forcing us to revoke A50 at this moment would be a humiliation too far (I hope). Though I do expect it to be revoked during the extension period.
Can the ERG etc filibusters removing no deal or changing the date in Brexit legislation? Genuine question. They will need to talk it out for about a week.
No, as May has granted the vote
What if the Leavers like Leadsom resigned from the cabinet In a week or two creating a crisis in the governments mechanics? Hard to schedule legislation in time if the government is not functioning.
Mogg looks like he has a plan. I wonder what it is.
Who cares what Leadsom does, over half the Cabinet would resign without a No Deal vote.
The only plan Mogg seems to be succeeding in bringing closer is getting Brexit cancelled
To stop no deal the government has to pass legislation. That is hard to do against the clock if the government is not functioning. Could the governments attempt to amend the leaving date be disrupted by guerilla tactics by Leavers in the govt or the backbenches?
The Lords could certainly slow the process down appreciably, were they to be so inclined. Up against an immovable deadline, they’d probably be asked to sit through the night though, which I don’t imagine many of them would want.
Assuming that amendments to the leaving date are tabled next week, leaving about eight normal sitting days before Bday, are there guerilla tactics that could talk it out?
Amending the leaving date doesn't require primary legislation.
If May goes back to the EU, asks for more time, but doesn't have a credible strategy of how the extension might break the deadlock, how likely will it be that the EU will take a collective deep breath and say 'sorry, but we need certainty and stability before upcoming elections and we'll take the economic hit. Good buy and best of British'
It seems as if the EU are in the driving seat now. Either we vote for Christmas, or the EU forces Christmas on March 29...
Then we revoke. This is not an unlikely scenario.
But who revokes? Surely if the EU turns around and doesn't grant an extension, there would need to be a vote to revoke. I guess you are saying there is a majority in the HoC for revoke?
We'd see a resurgent UKIP, that's for sure...
There will definitely be a majority for revoke if the alternative is no deal.
Can the ERG etc filibusters removing no deal or changing the date in Brexit legislation? Genuine question. They will need to talk it out for about a week.
No, as May has granted the vote
What if the Leavers like Leadsom resigned from the cabinet In a week or two creating a crisis in the governments mechanics? Hard to schedule legislation in time if the government is not functioning.
Mogg looks like he has a plan. I wonder what it is.
Who cares what Leadsom does, over half the Cabinet would resign without a No Deal vote.
The only plan Mogg seems to be succeeding in bringing closer is getting Brexit cancelled
To stop no deal the government has to pass legislation. That is hard to do against the clock if the government is not functioning. Could the governments attempt to amend the leaving date be disrupted by guerilla tactics by Leavers in the govt or the backbenches?
The Lords could certainly slow the process down appreciably, were they to be so inclined. Up against an immovable deadline, they’d probably be asked to sit through the night though, which I don’t imagine many of them would want.
Assuming that amendments to the leaving date are tabled next week, leaving about eight normal sitting days before Bday, are there guerilla tactics that could talk it out?
That’s a good question. I *think* that a change in the date can be by a Statutory Instrument, rather than requiring primary legislation, which makes the process easier as it’s a simple vote in each House rather than a Bill.
Of course, the minister would need to have the new date agreed with the EU council unanimously beforehand, which might also prove tricky.
I guess the EU will insist on a long extension, perhaps an indefinite one.
Nice long extension makes perfect sense. The time scales imposed by A50 were always nuts, and we were never going to get the future trade agreement done in 2 or even 3 years either.
Can the ERG etc filibusters removing no deal or changing the date in Brexit legislation? Genuine question. They will need to talk it out for about a week.
No, as May has granted the vote
What if the Leavers like Leadsom resigned from the cabinet In a week or two creating a crisis in the governments mechanics? Hard to schedule legislation in time if the government is not functioning.
Mogg looks like he has a plan. I wonder what it is.
Who cares what Leadsom does, over half the Cabinet would resign without a No Deal vote.
The only plan Mogg seems to be succeeding in bringing closer is getting Brexit cancelled
To stop no deal the government has to pass legislation. That is hard to do against the clock if the government is not functioning. Could the governments attempt to amend the leaving date be disrupted by guerilla tactics by Leavers in the govt or the backbenches?
The Lords could certainly slow the process down appreciably, were they to be so inclined. Up against an immovable deadline, they’d probably be asked to sit through the night though, which I don’t imagine many of them would want.
Assuming that amendments to the leaving date are tabled next week, leaving about eight normal sitting days before Bday, are there guerilla tactics that could talk it out?
That’s a good question. I *think* that a change in the date can be by a Statutory Instrument, rather than requiring primary legislation, which makes the process easier as it’s a simple vote in each House rather than a Bill.
Of course, the minister would need to have the new date agreed with the EU council unanimously beforehand, which might also prove tricky.
Thanks. Thought it might be harder. Hard to stop then.
If the Commons has a whopping majority against leaving with no deal, the Govt says well there's no better deal out there then presumably the logical next step of the Govt is to ask for an extension in order to either have another referendum and/or to put a vote to the commons for revocation of article 50 asap?
The options TMay laid out after losing tonight only lead one way? I don't see Brexit happening now.
No its over and the anti-democrats have won. May will be directed to revoke Article 50 within the next few days.
Better than this deal.
If so we get a new PM and then they can invoked A50 again and this time plan all along for No Deal if we can't get an acceptable one, as this PM should have done from the start.
You're absolutely delusional. Once A50 is revoked we won't leave for 20-30 years or if the EU collapses.
So be it. No deal is better than a bad deal, and no Brexit is better than a bad Brexit.
If May revokes or goes ref2 I will never vote Tory again, ever
May will vote against No Deal tomorrow according to news reports, so better get that application for Farage's new Brexit Party in then or you will have to wait for Boris
I am genuinely stunned. The ERG are morons. Utter morons.
Yep.
Never, in the history of politics, can there have been a better example of 'the best being the enemy of the good'.
Quite incredible.
Quite predictable.
I thought I was hanging out with Michael Goves, Geoffrey Coxs, and Stephen Barclays, influenced by the pragmatism of Robert Smithsons.
It turns out I was also hanging out with Andrew Lilicos, Andrea Jenkyns, Steve Bakers and Michael Fabricants, agitated by ultra ideologues and the likes of Aaron Banks.
Indeed...There was a sensible Brexit out there, and the head bangers blew it all up.
The ERG will never miss an opportunity to miss an opportunity.
If May goes back to the EU, asks for more time, but doesn't have a credible strategy of how the extension might break the deadlock, how likely will it be that the EU will take a collective deep breath and say 'sorry, but we need certainty and stability before upcoming elections and we'll take the economic hit. Good buy and best of British'
It seems as if the EU are in the driving seat now. Either we vote for Christmas, or the EU forces Christmas on March 29...
Then we revoke. This is not an unlikely scenario.
But who revokes? Surely if the EU turns around and doesn't grant an extension, there would need to be a vote to revoke. I guess you are saying there is a majority in the HoC for revoke?
We'd see a resurgent UKIP, that's for sure...
Yes she will be directed to revoke by the majority in the HoC at that point and she already indicated in her statement tonight that she will follow such directions.
On the plus side we are not going to have another referendum. It will be stopped without one.
If the Commons has a whopping majority against leaving with no deal, the Govt says well there's no better deal out there then presumably the logical next step of the Govt is to ask for an extension in order to either have another referendum and/or to put a vote to the commons for revocation of article 50 asap?
The options TMay laid out after losing tonight only lead one way? I don't see Brexit happening now.
No its over and the anti-democrats have won. May will be directed to revoke Article 50 within the next few days.
Better than this deal.
If so we get a new PM and then they can invoked A50 again and this time plan all along for No Deal if we can't get an acceptable one, as this PM should have done from the start.
No chance mate.... you think a no-dealer is ever going to command a majority in the house???
If they become Tory leader then they can go to the polls to get a majority.
If die-hard Remainers walk out of the party to the Tiggers because a no-dealer has become PM then that makes it all the more possible that an elected majority will include a majority willing to countenance no deal. Especially no deal after 2 years of preparations which A50 gives us.
We have a hung parliament precisely because there is no majority amongst voters for hard Brexit as the 2017 GE proved, even May has realised that
Solving the Brexit issue on a stable basis may be beyond our current political structures. The voting system and party loyalties don't fit with it at all and sporadic direct public votes don't resolve matters either.
If the Commons has a whopping majority against leaving with no deal, the Govt says well there's no better deal out there then presumably the logical next step of the Govt is to ask for an extension in order to either have another referendum and/or to put a vote to the commons for revocation of article 50 asap?
The options TMay laid out after losing tonight only lead one way? I don't see Brexit happening now.
No its over and the anti-democrats have won. May will be directed to revoke Article 50 within the next few days.
Better than this deal.
If so we get a new PM and then they can invoked A50 again and this time plan all along for No Deal if we can't get an acceptable one, as this PM should have done from the start.
You're absolutely delusional. Once A50 is revoked we won't leave for 20-30 years or if the EU collapses.
I am genuinely stunned. The ERG are morons. Utter morons.
Yep.
Never, in the history of politics, can there have been a better example of 'the best being the enemy of the good'.
Quite incredible.
Quite predictable.
I thought I was hanging out with Michael Goves, Geoffrey Coxs, and Stephen Barclays, influenced by the pragmatism of Robert Smithsons.
It turns out I was also hanging out with Andrew Lilicos, Andrea Jenkyns, Steve Bakers and Michael Fabricants, agitated by ultra ideologues and the likes of Aaron Banks.
Indeed...There was a sensible Brexit out there, and the head bangers blew it all up.
And even more bizarrely, they have blown it up for a Brexit ideal that they did not themselves personally believe in or argue for two years ago. They have hardened as time passes, whipping each other into more and more ridiculous positions.
What are you talking about?
Two years ago who was talking about the backstop? The deal was rejected because the EU didn't compromise on the backstop, the deal would have passed with a backstop compromise. Two years ago that wasn't an issue so you're not making much sense.
I am genuinely stunned. The ERG are morons. Utter morons.
Yep.
Never, in the history of politics, can there have been a better example of 'the best being the enemy of the good'.
Quite incredible.
Quite predictable.
I thought I was hanging out with Michael Goves, Geoffrey Coxs, and Stephen Barclays, influenced by the pragmatism of Robert Smithsons.
It turns out I was also hanging out with Andrew Lilicos, Andrea Jenkyns, Steve Bakers and Michael Fabricants, agitated by ultra ideologues and the likes of Aaron Banks.
I echo this sentiment, entirely.
Except for the pluralisation of "Cox", which is clearly wrong. Oh well. I feel unbelievably let down.
Can the ERG etc filibusters removing no deal or changing the date in Brexit legislation? Genuine question. They will need to talk it out for about a week.
No, as May has granted the vote
What if the Leavers like Leadsom resigned from the cabinet In a week or two creating a crisis in the governments mechanics? Hard to schedule legislation in time if the government is not functioning.
Mogg looks like he has a plan. I wonder what it is.
Who cares what Leadsom does, over half the Cabinet would resign without a No Deal vote.
The only plan Mogg seems to be succeeding in bringing closer is getting Brexit cancelled
To stop no deal the government has to pass legislation. That is hard to do against the clock if the government is not functioning. Could the governments attempt to amend the leaving date be disrupted by guerilla tactics by Leavers in the govt or the backbenches?
The Lords could certainly slow the process down appreciably, were they to be so inclined. Up against an immovable deadline, they’d probably be asked to sit through the night though, which I don’t imagine many of them would want.
Assuming that amendments to the leaving date are tabled next week, leaving about eight normal sitting days before Bday, are there guerilla tactics that could talk it out?
Amending the leaving date doesn't require primary legislation.
It requires either revocation or the agreement of the EU.
No need to worry about needing an IDP for my Easter holiday in Germany then.
Which part are you visiting?
Lower Saxony , staying in Hamelin. Will visit Munster for Tank Museum and if possible get to Mohne Dam
I don't know Hameln (excepting the Fable of course) but I do know Münster, a lovely small German city. I've just polished off a bottle of Münster Altbier, highly recommended.
If the Commons has a whopping majority against leaving with no deal, the Govt says well there's no better deal out there then presumably the logical next step of the Govt is to ask for an extension in order to either have another referendum and/or to put a vote to the commons for revocation of article 50 asap?
The options TMay laid out after losing tonight only lead one way? I don't see Brexit happening now.
No its over and the anti-democrats have won. May will be directed to revoke Article 50 within the next few days.
Better than this deal.
If so we get a new PM and then they can invoked A50 again and this time plan all along for No Deal if we can't get an acceptable one, as this PM should have done from the start.
No chance mate.... you think a no-dealer is ever going to command a majority in the house???
If they become Tory leader then they can go to the polls to get a majority.
If die-hard Remainers walk out of the party to the Tiggers because a no-dealer has become PM then that makes it all the more possible that an elected majority will include a majority willing to countenance no deal. Especially no deal after 2 years of preparations which A50 gives us.
We have a hung parliament precisely because there is no majority amongst voters for hard Brexit as the 2017 GE proved, even May has realised that
I am genuinely stunned. The ERG are morons. Utter morons.
Yep.
Never, in the history of politics, can there have been a better example of 'the best being the enemy of the good'.
Quite incredible.
Quite predictable.
I thought I was hanging out with Michael Goves, Geoffrey Coxs, and Stephen Barclays, influenced by the pragmatism of Robert Smithsons.
It turns out I was also hanging out with Andrew Lilicos, Andrea Jenkyns, Steve Bakers and Michael Fabricants, agitated by ultra ideologues and the likes of Aaron Banks.
Indeed...There was a sensible Brexit out there, and the head bangers blew it all up.
And even more bizarrely, they have blown it up for a Brexit ideal that they did not themselves personally believe in or argue for two years ago. They have hardened as time passes, whipping each other into more and more ridiculous positions.
What are you talking about?
Two years ago who was talking about the backstop? The deal was rejected because the EU didn't compromise on the backstop, the deal would have passed with a backstop compromise. Two years ago that wasn't an issue so you're not making much sense.
The ultras were always going to find some way to vote against any real world approach to Brexit. Their whole mindset is to oppose, never to propose.
If the Commons has a whopping majority against leaving with no deal, the Govt says well there's no better deal out there then presumably the logical next step of the Govt is to ask for an extension in order to either have another referendum and/or to put a vote to the commons for revocation of article 50 asap?
The options TMay laid out after losing tonight only lead one way? I don't see Brexit happening now.
No its over and the anti-democrats have won. May will be directed to revoke Article 50 within the next few days.
Better than this deal.
If so we get a new PM and then they can invoked A50 again and this time plan all along for No Deal if we can't get an acceptable one, as this PM should have done from the start.
No chance mate.... you think a no-dealer is ever going to command a majority in the house???
If they become Tory leader then they can go to the polls to get a majority.
If die-hard Remainers walk out of the party to the Tiggers because a no-dealer has become PM then that makes it all the more possible that an elected majority will include a majority willing to countenance no deal. Especially no deal after 2 years of preparations which A50 gives us.
We have a hung parliament precisely because there is no majority amongst voters for hard Brexit as the 2017 GE proved, even May has realised that
You still push this absurd myth that no-deal Brexit can somehow be “prepared for.” It can’t.
If all Tory MPs had loyally backed their Government the MV would have passed tonight.
By one vote.
Yes, but being politicians they only see the mandate they wish to see!
I have got to the point of being utterly sick to death of this process. I can well understand why MPs would not want the deal as it leaves the UK with No teeth and subservient to the EU. At least if we are in the EU, we have some impact on the institutions...
Comments
In any case there's going to be a GE soon because this government is barely functioning as it is and things are going to steadily decline.
As I say, quibbling over an irrelevance in the scheme of things.
https://twitter.com/geoffrey_cox/status/1105393787243778053?s=21
I don't see many of the ERG willing to step up and face some reality, take some responsibility and do some work.
Or she resigns, and something weird happens like a VoNC and an alternative administration for navigating the Brexit process takes over instead that commands a level of cross party support.
Premier Comrade Corbyn?
Jeeezuss we are so doomed
The media are desperately trying to big up the EU not granting the two month extension but they won’t want to be blamed for no deal .
If there is a referendum I expect Remain will get far fewer votes than last time and Leave will run with an abstention campaign to delegitimise the whole process. After that the country will be ungovernable for the next few decades.
It seems as if the EU are in the driving seat now. Either we vote for Christmas, or the EU forces Christmas on March 29...
If there is an overwhelming majority against no deal (which there will be) will the government introduce primary legislation to remove the default position currently in the legislation. Will they be able to do that with revocation at the same time given that it is our Treaty with the EU that means we leave on 29th March, not actually our domestic legislation?
Most people are not political, they just want the trains to run on time, and to see a doctor easily...
It turns out I was also hanging out with Andrew Lilicos, Andrea Jenkyns, Steve Bakers and Michael Fabricants, agitated by ultra ideologues and the likes of Aaron Banks.
If die-hard Remainers walk out of the party to the Tiggers because a no-dealer has become PM then that makes it all the more possible that an elected majority will include a majority willing to countenance no deal. Especially no deal after 2 years of preparations which A50 gives us.
Which seems utterly bizarre.
She may have concluded there was no one else, that she wished to continue, that she was best placed, etc.
But not discussed?
Spoiler Alert: It is.
Remainers always needed them to act like the lunatics they are . I still can’t see another EU vote but more likely a softer Brexit but we live in strange times .
I hate Corbyn, and I would vote Labour to stop a no-deal happening. It's economic suicide, and everyone knows it.
We'd see a resurgent UKIP, that's for sure...
A No-deal will never never never happen....
This will probably be the wisest course for them - a short extension would be pointless and forcing us to revoke A50 at this moment would be a humiliation too far (I hope). Though I do expect it to be revoked during the extension period.
So even if every Leaver Tory had backed the Deal it would have still lost.
Of course, the minister would need to have the new date agreed with the EU council unanimously beforehand, which might also prove tricky.
By one vote.
The deal was dead without DUP support.
Thanks, fuckwits.
On the plus side we are not going to have another referendum. It will be stopped without one.
Assuming they’re not secret Remainers.
Two years ago who was talking about the backstop? The deal was rejected because the EU didn't compromise on the backstop, the deal would have passed with a backstop compromise. Two years ago that wasn't an issue so you're not making much sense.
Except for the pluralisation of "Cox", which is clearly wrong. Oh well. I feel unbelievably let down.
Have fun.
You still push this absurd myth that no-deal Brexit can somehow be “prepared for.” It can’t.
I have got to the point of being utterly sick to death of this process. I can well understand why MPs would not want the deal as it leaves the UK with No teeth and subservient to the EU. At least if we are in the EU, we have some impact on the institutions...