I think this could be big. Perhaps the main thing they need, the Tiggers, is for the Tory leadership to be captured by the hard right in the way that Labour's has been captured by the hard left. In that case, given a good leader for both TIG and the LDs, and if they work in tandem, I can see a new centrist grouping winning many seats at a GE. For example, if JC vs JRM were to be the choice for PM laid before the electorate, then many will bridle at that and will appreciate a serious alternative.
Unfortunately (from the TIG viewpoint) I suspect the Tories are too pragmatic and power grubbing to allow that to happen. They will not choose a headbanger to replace TM. In which case we might be SDP Liberal Alliance all over again and the effect will be to hard-code the Tory Party into government for the foreseeable future.
But then - wild card - there is Farage's new reactionary populist party potentially surging to the right of the Tories. That could make it all very different this time.
Gosh, who knows. Really interesting time to be alive.
Because this Group did not exist at the time of the 2017 election it will have little entitlement to coverage by the Broadcasters during an election campaign . A single PPB would be allocated to it. The same problem will affect Farage's Brexit Party.
They would get copious amounts of coverage on the BBC as an untainted LD Party.
Not during an election campaign when the Broadcasters have to adhere to strict rules and would be closely monitored.
I am not sure that it speaks particularly well of either of our mainstream parties that there are now 6 women MPs in the new grouping. It may be a coincidence but it rather smacks of misogynist tendencies on both the left and the right.
Edit actually 7! I got misled by their still not updated site.
Is anyone else getting confused about the phrase "a purple momentum?" I've just realised that it's being used to describe the ERG in the Tory Party, but I thought it was to do with TIG being a mix of red and blue.
Purple is a fairly obvious reference to the colour of UKIP.
So, we have 1, probably 2 bye elections pending. What are the Tiggers going to do? They absolutely need profile and media attention so sitting them out is not an option. They need a big name who isn't an MP who can build some very rapid momentum. They also need to trample over the Lib Dems, one each is not going to cut it for them, especially as everyone wants Peterborough.
Perhaps its me, as the late, great Lord Macfadyen used to say when firing an Exocet in my direction, but is this situation not crying out for David Milliband? Or Ed Balls? Someone of that ilk coming on board at this point would transform the Tiggers into a real political force, even if they are unlikely to take Newport. Most of the early SDP success came from the willingness of their big guns to get over the parapets and fight on apparently unpropitious territory. Tiggers need to do the same.
Blair.
Lol.
Someone popular of that ilk coming on board at this point would transform the Tiggers into a real political force
He is probably popular with the demographic attracted to this group
I don't think Blair is popular with anyone these days. He has (or had) the worst net rating of any UK politician with YouGov's rating charts (-39). Corbyn is -21 for comparison; May, -20.
Public Figure Boris Johnson Boris Johnson is the most popular Conservative politician and the 3rd most famous. Boris Johnson is described by fans as: Conservative, Humorous, Intelligent, Charismatic and Clever.
Be very careful with YouGov's commentary. They only look at the absolute positive numbers. Annoyingly, there is no option to re-order by negative rating, or net rating.
Last time I checked, Ruth Davidson had the best score of any Tory (and one of very few politicians to have a net +ve). She is currently +3. Boris is -12.
I am not sure that it speaks particularly well of either of our mainstream parties that there are now 6 women MPs in the new grouping. It may be a coincidence but it rather smacks of misogynist tendencies on both the left and the right.
Edit actually 7! I got misled by their still not updated site.
The first polls would seem to indicate another 1983 situation, with the Tories only losing a small amount of support to the new grouping.
In terms of historic parallels, we are at the January 1981 stage, i.e. The equivalent of the Council for Social Democracy was launched 2 days ago. Without General Galteiri in 1982, how would 1983 have played out?
You are assuming Argentina won't try to take advantage of UK divisions to grab the Falklands.
They’d need a functioning navy and airforce first...
For the full historical parallel to work Argentina need to lose.
I am not sure that it speaks particularly well of either of our mainstream parties that there are now 6 women MPs in the new grouping. It may be a coincidence but it rather smacks of misogynist tendencies on both the left and the right.
Edit actually 7! I got misled by their still not updated site.
Ah, but will they eventually be led by a woman?
If they have any sense, yes. Nothing could more easily differentiate them from old Labour.
Mr. Pulpstar, it tends to be quiet, but I've had some success there hedging the odd F1 bet, and enjoying one or two mispriced specials.
Edited extra bit: also, decided to wimp out of hedging my Harris bets. Tiny stakes and, whilst I've got a little bit of income, for once, my Ladbrokes account has been diminished severely and I'd rather let the bet sink or swim on its own.
Is anyone else getting confused about the phrase "a purple momentum?" I've just realised that it's being used to describe the ERG in the Tory Party, but I thought it was to do with TIG being a mix of red and blue.
How did you get so ahead of the game with your username?
I am not sure that it speaks particularly well of either of our mainstream parties that there are now 6 women MPs in the new grouping. It may be a coincidence but it rather smacks of misogynist tendencies on both the left and the right.
Edit actually 7! I got misled by their still not updated site.
Ah, but will they eventually be led by a woman?
If they have any sense, yes. Nothing could more easily differentiate them from old Labour.
I am not sure that it speaks particularly well of either of our mainstream parties that there are now 6 women MPs in the new grouping. It may be a coincidence but it rather smacks of misogynist tendencies on both the left and the right.
Edit actually 7! I got misled by their still not updated site.
I think that is indeed (probably) telling.
There is also (at the grave risk of sloppy generalization) the possibility that women are less wedded to tribes.
"Not during an election campaign when the Broadcasters have to adhere to strict rules and would be closely monitored."
I suspect they'll be popular with the denizens of the BBC, and Purdah only lasts three weeks at a time.
They need someone who gets more of a response than 'who's he then?' At least Jenkins and Williams had that for the SDP. At the moment, the only thing uniting them is Brexit. Come April, even that may be gone.
I am not sure that it speaks particularly well of either of our mainstream parties that there are now 6 women MPs in the new grouping. It may be a coincidence but it rather smacks of misogynist tendencies on both the left and the right.
Edit actually 7! I got misled by their still not updated site.
I think that is indeed (probably) telling.
There is also (at the grave risk of sloppy generalization) the possibility that women are less wedded to tribes.
I am not sure that it speaks particularly well of either of our mainstream parties that there are now 6 women MPs in the new grouping. It may be a coincidence but it rather smacks of misogynist tendencies on both the left and the right.
Edit actually 7! I got misled by their still not updated site.
Ah, but will they eventually be led by a woman?
If they have any sense, yes. Nothing could more easily differentiate them from old Labour.
So one of Allen or Berger then.
Berger for me but given their EU tendencies I am only an interested observer.
I am not sure that it speaks particularly well of either of our mainstream parties that there are now 6 women MPs in the new grouping. It may be a coincidence but it rather smacks of misogynist tendencies on both the left and the right.
Edit actually 7! I got misled by their still not updated site.
Ah, but will they eventually be led by a woman?
Would be great if the Tiggers had their shit together and elect a woman leader before Labour.
Having had a day to reflect on these guys, other than them trying to ignore the brexit vote, I'd much rather they exist than not as hopefully we'll get a better quality opposition. Labour are useless and the Lib Dems might as well not exist.
I am not sure that it speaks particularly well of either of our mainstream parties that there are now 6 women MPs in the new grouping. It may be a coincidence but it rather smacks of misogynist tendencies on both the left and the right.
Edit actually 7! I got misled by their still not updated site.
Ah, but will they eventually be led by a woman?
If they have any sense, yes. Nothing could more easily differentiate them from old Labour.
I am not sure that it speaks particularly well of either of our mainstream parties that there are now 6 women MPs in the new grouping. It may be a coincidence but it rather smacks of misogynist tendencies on both the left and the right.
Edit actually 7! I got misled by their still not updated site.
I think that is indeed (probably) telling.
There is also (at the grave risk of sloppy generalization) the possibility that women are less wedded to tribes.
But, but, they watch football and everything these days.
If Ed Balls were to run for TIG and win a bye election it would make them into a much bigger political force to be reckoned with.
Also, I don't think they should sully their image with the tired Lib Dems. If the Lib Dems want to join they should defect. Their brand is completely toxic.
He'd need his wife by his side as he canvassed.
Which might just eclipse him in the "Fuck me!" stakes.....
"Not during an election campaign when the Broadcasters have to adhere to strict rules and would be closely monitored."
I suspect they'll be popular with the denizens of the BBC, and Purdah only lasts three weeks at a time.
They need someone who gets more of a response than 'who's he then?' At least Jenkins and Williams had that for the SDP. At the moment, the only thing uniting them is Brexit. Come April, even that may be gone.
Purdah might now last five weeks - the period from Dissolution to Polling Day. Difficult to see any entitlement to participation in any Debates that may be arranged. Ditto for the Brexit Party.
Christopher Chope Christopher Chope is the 70th most popular Conservative politician and the 67th most famous. Christopher Chope is described by fans as: Farsighted, Accomplished, Authoritative, Admirable and Stands up for ordinary people.
I hadn't realised that child abusers and perverts were now classed as ordinary people.
"There's no electoral route." That's one of those myths like "We can't have a general election till 2022."
If the Tiggers can get above 30% there is very definitely an electoral route. You may remember that at one point the SDP were polling at 50%, and I expect the Tiggers to soon be polling over 20%, even before they actually exist as a party. The problem then is timing. If there was an election later this year they'd have a good chance of being above 30% in the polls and winning a significant number of seats. (Somewhat reminiscent of what happened with Macron's party.) If the next election really is in 2022, I expect the bubble to have burst by then.
The lack of cohesion as a political force is a problem. But at least they're marketing themselves as independents, which gives them some leeway. They could say that they disagree fundamentally on some issues but they'll behave like a coalition and find a consensus. This may be a turn-on, rather than a turn-off, for electors.
This may sound mad, but I think they should be the "gilets roses" - they should make the wearing of pink hi-vis gilets the symbol of their movement - as a counterpoint to the yellow vests of the alt-right nutters who waste the police's time in our city centres on Saturday lunchtimes (before they go to the football).
Today's poll *already* puts LD+TIG over 20%.
Yes, but I'm assuming they'll remain separate, in which case the LD share counts for almost nothing. There are reasons that the LDs are stuck on single digit support; it may sound callous, but the Tiggers would be well advised to ignore the LDs as much as possible.
I am not sure that it speaks particularly well of either of our mainstream parties that there are now 6 women MPs in the new grouping. It may be a coincidence but it rather smacks of misogynist tendencies on both the left and the right.
Edit actually 7! I got misled by their still not updated site.
Excepting the Greens - whose sole MP is a woman - TIG are now the only political group with a majority of female representation in the House of Commons.
The 4:4 gender ratio for the defectors from Labour is pretty close to the party average, which was 45% female at the time of the results of the 2017GE (and would be a bit higher now as the previous Labour MPs to sit as independents were, I think, all male with the exception of the member for Peterborough).
The 3 female defectors from the Tories is more interesting as only about 1-in-5 Tory MPs are women. This makes it about a 1-in-125 chance that the three defectors would all be women, which is on the face of it unlikely. Perhaps further defections will change this picture.
"Until eight days ago, the name of Luciana Berger would have barely registered beyond the ambitious and often fractious world of student politics.
The striking 23-year-old postgraduate had carved out a role as an officer in the National Union of Students, dedicating her time to fighting racial hatred.
But when she stepped down from her post last week, accusing the NUS of ignoring anti-Semitism on university campuses, the furore was sufficient to make national headlines - and attract the full attention of the most fearsome news management machine in British politics."
I am not sure that it speaks particularly well of either of our mainstream parties that there are now 6 women MPs in the new grouping. It may be a coincidence but it rather smacks of misogynist tendencies on both the left and the right.
Edit actually 7! I got misled by their still not updated site.
You could perhaps argue that 'difficult' women are more likely to become parliamentary candidates than 'difficult' men for box ticking purposes.
Certainly Allen and Wollaston have been serial rebels since being elected.
I suspect they would soon become serial rebels to anything the splitters propose as a political platform.
"Not during an election campaign when the Broadcasters have to adhere to strict rules and would be closely monitored."
I suspect they'll be popular with the denizens of the BBC, and Purdah only lasts three weeks at a time.
They need someone who gets more of a response than 'who's he then?' At least Jenkins and Williams had that for the SDP. At the moment, the only thing uniting them is Brexit. Come April, even that may be gone.
Purdah might now last five weeks - the period from Dissolution to Polling Day. Difficult to see any entitlement to participation in any Debates that may be arranged. Ditto for the Brexit Party.
Yes, without a formal registered party they'd have no chance of debates, PPBs, centrally-allocated spending or much media coverage at all during the formal campaign. And no Short money after the election either.
It can't be in their interest for an election this year, which is why it's probably a good bet that we get one in the autumn. TM to resign after we leave the EU, and a new Conservative PM to call the election after a few months to get their feet under the table.
I am not sure that it speaks particularly well of either of our mainstream parties that there are now 6 women MPs in the new grouping. It may be a coincidence but it rather smacks of misogynist tendencies on both the left and the right.
Edit actually 7! I got misled by their still not updated site.
Excepting the Greens - whose sole MP is a woman - TIG are now the only political group with a majority of female representation in the House of Commons.
The 4:4 gender ratio for the defectors from Labour is pretty close to the party average, which was 45% female at the time of the results of the 2017GE (and would be a bit higher now as the previous Labour MPs to sit as independents were, I think, all male with the exception of the member for Peterborough).
The 3 female defectors from the Tories is more interesting as only about 1-in-5 Tory MPs are women. This makes it about a 1-in-125 chance that the three defectors would all be women, which is on the face of it unlikely. Perhaps further defections will change this picture.
Tbh I hadn't realised that the Labour gender balance was that close to equality.
They should be the most worried by this week's events.
They should embrace it.
Put another way: what exactly is the point of the Lib Dems right now? Why wouldn't they want to ditch a terminally trashed brand and start again with a clean slate? Do they still aspire to government? If so, how, and with whom? If not, then what?
They should be the most worried by this week's events.
Yes and no. In the short term, they will clearly be eclipsed (although the early polls suggest the LibDems are already down to core support for a liberal party and won't be pushed down much further).
It makes sense for the LDs to push for an electoral deal with TIG, assuming the latter signs up to a radical political reform agenda - as Chuka is clearly already mapping out. All the LDs need is a clear run in their top 50 seats; not having to lose deposits elsewhere is actually a benefit.
In the long term, if the nascent political realignment leads to the hitherto unreachable goal of voting reform, after which a minority support liberal party is assured a role on the nationwide political stage, why wouldn't they see this as a result?
There was a surprisingly strong CBI Industrial Trends report today.
There has been rather a differential between the CBI Industrial Trends, the PMIs and manufacturing employment compared to poor figures for manufacturing output.
I am not sure that it speaks particularly well of either of our mainstream parties that there are now 6 women MPs in the new grouping. It may be a coincidence but it rather smacks of misogynist tendencies on both the left and the right.
Edit actually 7! I got misled by their still not updated site.
Excepting the Greens - whose sole MP is a woman - TIG are now the only political group with a majority of female representation in the House of Commons.
The 4:4 gender ratio for the defectors from Labour is pretty close to the party average, which was 45% female at the time of the results of the 2017GE (and would be a bit higher now as the previous Labour MPs to sit as independents were, I think, all male with the exception of the member for Peterborough).
The 3 female defectors from the Tories is more interesting as only about 1-in-5 Tory MPs are women. This makes it about a 1-in-125 chance that the three defectors would all be women, which is on the face of it unlikely. Perhaps further defections will change this picture.
Tbh I hadn't realised that the Labour gender balance was that close to equality.
It might be totally untypical, but my Twitter feed has a lot more abuse of the Tory defectors than of the Labour ones.
I don't use twitter but my Facebook feed is not complimentary. I've just been posted a photograph of Soubry with a large forked tongue emerging from her mouth.
This story gets stranger and stranger...I can see a HBO special dramatisation in the future.
Chicago’s top prosecutor recused herself from the investigation into the attack reported by Empire actor Jussie Smollett shortly after police requested another interview with the actor.
They should be the most worried by this week's events.
Yes and no. In the short term, they will clearly be eclipsed (although the early polls suggest the LibDems are already down to core support for a liberal party and won't be pushed down much further).
It makes sense for the LDs to push for an electoral deal with TIG, assuming the latter signs up to a radical political reform agenda - as Chuka is clearly already mapping out. All the LDs need is a clear run in their top 50 seats; not having to lose deposits elsewhere is actually a benefit.
In the long term, if the nascent political realignment leads to the hitherto unreachable goal of voting reform, after which a minority support liberal party is assured a role on the nationwide political stage, why wouldn't they see this as a result?
Among the LibDems top 50 targets will be most of the constituencies the splitters could do well in.
And if the LibDems abandon 500+ constituencies its not going to help their long term grassroots development.
They should be the most worried by this week's events.
But what's funny is that they're (mistakenly) under the impression that somehow this actually puts them all back in the game.
The LibDems are the Eastman Kodak Company of politics.
They are just not that bright.
We're down to one in Wales. Predictably, Labour have lumbered a large sea bird around Kirsty's neck, so I expect we will be down to zero next election.
(And this was a country where the old Liberals once took every seat bar one, Merthyr Tydfil).
PBers might be interested to hear I was in Channel 4 News HQ yesterday and the computer next to Cathy Newman's desk was browsing which website? Yes it was indeed this one. It might not be the best news programme but they sure know where to get all the best opinions.
Because this Group did not exist at the time of the 2017 election it will have little entitlement to coverage by the Broadcasters during an election campaign . A single PPB would be allocated to it. The same problem will affect Farage's Brexit Party.
A good point. And then there are the debates. Not sure how that would work.
In fact, for all of this week's (totally justified) excitement, I can envisage Farage's party doing better than Chuka's in a general election - especially if Brexit is 'betrayed' but perhaps even if it isn't.
Is the appetite for a new centre party which is not called the Liberal Democrats really greater than that for a genuinely new and radical offering in the reactionary bigot space? I'm not sure it is.
They should be the most worried by this week's events.
Yes and no. In the short term, they will clearly be eclipsed (although the early polls suggest the LibDems are already down to core support for a liberal party and won't be pushed down much further).
It makes sense for the LDs to push for an electoral deal with TIG, assuming the latter signs up to a radical political reform agenda - as Chuka is clearly already mapping out. All the LDs need is a clear run in their top 50 seats; not having to lose deposits elsewhere is actually a benefit.
In the long term, if the nascent political realignment leads to the hitherto unreachable goal of voting reform, after which a minority support liberal party is assured a role on the nationwide political stage, why wouldn't they see this as a result?
Among the LibDems top 50 targets will be most of the constituencies the splitters could do well in.
And if the LibDems abandon 500+ constituencies its not going to help their long term grassroots development.
On that last, I used to think that way. Except that the grass roots position of the party is now in many areas in a worse state than when I joined forty years ago. Electoral reform is the prize worth staking the party's future on, if TIG can deliver.
They should be the most worried by this week's events.
Yes and no. In the short term, they will clearly be eclipsed (although the early polls suggest the LibDems are already down to core support for a liberal party and won't be pushed down much further).
It makes sense for the LDs to push for an electoral deal with TIG, assuming the latter signs up to a radical political reform agenda - as Chuka is clearly already mapping out. All the LDs need is a clear run in their top 50 seats; not having to lose deposits elsewhere is actually a benefit.
In the long term, if the nascent political realignment leads to the hitherto unreachable goal of voting reform, after which a minority support liberal party is assured a role on the nationwide political stage, why wouldn't they see this as a result?
Among the LibDems top 50 targets will be most of the constituencies the splitters could do well in.
And if the LibDems abandon 500+ constituencies its not going to help their long term grassroots development.
If the Lib Dems are generous on Westminster constituencies (in theory) then they can win a blessing from TIG for the May local elections - which could be worth at least several hundred more councillors elected.
PBers might be interested to hear I was in Channel 4 News HQ yesterday and the computer next to Cathy Newman's desk was browsing which website? Yes it was indeed this one. It might not be the best news programme but they sure know where to get all the best opinions.
Perhaps they have screenshotted SeanT's rants in case he becomes famous?
As an insurgent party, UKIP built their platform off the back of doing well in European elections. TIG could have the perfect opportunity within months to do the same.
If it turns out there are 30+ eventual defectors from Labour over the next couple of weeks it might be that there is a tiny window to call a GE between the last of the defectors joining TIG and March 29th.
If TM can get an extension she could destroy TIG and Corbyn in a GE.
PBers might be interested to hear I was in Channel 4 News HQ yesterday and the computer next to Cathy Newman's desk was browsing which website? Yes it was indeed this one. It might not be the best news programme but they sure know where to get all the best opinions.
PBers might be interested to hear I was in Channel 4 News HQ yesterday and the computer next to Cathy Newman's desk was browsing which website? Yes it was indeed this one. It might not be the best news programme but they sure know where to get all the best opinions.
Did they manage to download all of @SeanT's posts before he deleted them?
If it turns out there are 30+ eventual defectors from Labour over the next couple of weeks it might be that there is a tiny window to call a GE between the last of the defectors joining TIG and March 29th.
If TM can get an extension she could destroy TIG and Corbyn in a GE.
They should be the most worried by this week's events.
But what's funny is that they're (mistakenly) under the impression that somehow this actually puts them all back in the game.
The LibDems are the Eastman Kodak Company of politics.
They are just not that bright..
I'm not sure that British Political History, 2015-2019, lends too much credence to the idea that the Conservatives were the smart ones in the coalition.
For the Lib Dems, as so often, May's locals are going to be crucial. If they do well (and as they'll be fighting seats last fought on General Election day 2015, they could hardly do worse), it'll put them in a much better position to negotiate with TIG.
If it turns out there are 30+ eventual defectors from Labour over the next couple of weeks it might be that there is a tiny window to call a GE between the last of the defectors joining TIG and March 29th.
If TM can get an extension she could destroy TIG and Corbyn in a GE.
Should TIG get anything from a GE in terms of MPs that wouldn't be destroying them surely given where they are. Plus if TM would be mad to call a GE because if not TIG then Lab will nevertheless have ample candidates with red rosettes out there so it's a huge risk and we saw what happened last time. Not her style.
I wonder what Barnier and Co., are making of all this. A No Deal Brexit is still on its way......
A comment made by TM today at PMQ's seems to have been missed in all the noise but she clearly said it is a deal or no brexit.
I would not be at all surprised if the deal falls she will surprise everyone and call a referendum and in one act, defenestrate ERG, and check mate Corbyn
The political climate is highly charged but I do believe these last few days has seen the end of Corbyn becoming PM and if so, he has all been worthwhile
PBers might be interested to hear I was in Channel 4 News HQ yesterday and the computer next to Cathy Newman's desk was browsing which website? Yes it was indeed this one. It might not be the best news programme but they sure know where to get all the best opinions.
My heart bleeds Chris, it really does. Can't possibly imagine what it must be like for other people to have a vested interest in smearing your group. Well I sure hope there aren't people out there who will go to any length to discredit you, that would be really unfortunate.
Best of luck Chris and good luck fighting those evil vested interests.
One point, which may or may not have been raised, is that this will make whipping and Party discipline even harder than it already was. The nuclear option of withdrawal or de-selection carries much less weight when there is a group embracing Soubry and Gapes to go to.
If it turns out there are 30+ eventual defectors from Labour over the next couple of weeks it might be that there is a tiny window to call a GE between the last of the defectors joining TIG and March 29th.
If TM can get an extension she could destroy TIG and Corbyn in a GE.
Oh my. Do you have a fever? Anyone who seriously believes that TMay could "destroy" the opposition in a general election should hie themselves pronto to what we in Birmingham call the "Badger".
Is grey/charcoal/elephant's breath actually the Tiggers' official colour (as claimed by Wikipedia) or is it a placeholder? Millennial pink is available, might suit them.
Is anyone else getting confused about the phrase "a purple momentum?" I've just realised that it's being used to describe the ERG in the Tory Party, but I thought it was to do with TIG being a mix of red and blue.
I am itching - itching, I tell you - for their leader to wear a massive purple helmet...
Just to go back to some posts I did on Monday. I'm pretty sure we can agree no one is talking about Honda anymore!
I have a feeling families in Swindon probably are...Robert Buckland and Justin Tomlinson are going to be lucky to keep their seats.
Could well be. Whether it's fair to get blamed or not is somethi g else but let's not forget the 27% swing that saw the lds take Redcar when the steel plant was first shuttered
The most 3 most impressive Tory MPs by a distance and by the sound of it support is tumbling in. Even Polly T sounds like she's being won over.
Admittedly the new party couldn't believe their luck when Hatton and Galloway rejoined Labour and the BBC were not unhelpful when they went full Derby and Joan with their vox pops to show the party the modern Tory women had just left
Comments
Edit actually 7! I got misled by their still not updated site.
Last time I checked, Ruth Davidson had the best score of any Tory (and one of very few politicians to have a net +ve). She is currently +3. Boris is -12.
Edited extra bit: also, decided to wimp out of hedging my Harris bets. Tiny stakes and, whilst I've got a little bit of income, for once, my Ladbrokes account has been diminished severely and I'd rather let the bet sink or swim on its own.
There is also (at the grave risk of sloppy generalization) the possibility that women are less wedded to tribes.
"Not during an election campaign when the Broadcasters have to adhere to strict rules and would be closely monitored."
I suspect they'll be popular with the denizens of the BBC, and Purdah only lasts three weeks at a time.
They need someone who gets more of a response than 'who's he then?' At least Jenkins and Williams had that for the SDP. At the moment, the only thing uniting them is Brexit. Come April, even that may be gone.
With Cameron and GO pulling strings as well.
Having had a day to reflect on these guys, other than them trying to ignore the brexit vote, I'd much rather they exist than not as hopefully we'll get a better quality opposition. Labour are useless and the Lib Dems might as well not exist.
OFCOM look at two criteria when determining major parties:
1) Past performance
2) Opinion polls
See P2 and P3 of document - link:
https://www.ofcom.org.uk/__data/assets/pdf_file/0016/72142/major_parties_statement.pdf
Which might just eclipse him in the "Fuck me!" stakes.....
They should be the most worried by this week's events.
The 4:4 gender ratio for the defectors from Labour is pretty close to the party average, which was 45% female at the time of the results of the 2017GE (and would be a bit higher now as the previous Labour MPs to sit as independents were, I think, all male with the exception of the member for Peterborough).
The 3 female defectors from the Tories is more interesting as only about 1-in-5 Tory MPs are women. This makes it about a 1-in-125 chance that the three defectors would all be women, which is on the face of it unlikely. Perhaps further defections will change this picture.
And playing the orange diamond.
Borne of red they may have been but their offering is a distinct shade of yellow so far.
Just shinier.
The striking 23-year-old postgraduate had carved out a role as an officer in the National Union of Students, dedicating her time to fighting racial hatred.
But when she stepped down from her post last week, accusing the NUS of ignoring anti-Semitism on university campuses, the furore was sufficient to make national headlines - and attract the full attention of the most fearsome news management machine in British politics."
Certainly Allen and Wollaston have been serial rebels since being elected.
I suspect they would soon become serial rebels to anything the splitters propose as a political platform.
It can't be in their interest for an election this year, which is why it's probably a good bet that we get one in the autumn. TM to resign after we leave the EU, and a new Conservative PM to call the election after a few months to get their feet under the table.
Put another way: what exactly is the point of the Lib Dems right now? Why wouldn't they want to ditch a terminally trashed brand and start again with a clean slate? Do they still aspire to government? If so, how, and with whom? If not, then what?
It makes sense for the LDs to push for an electoral deal with TIG, assuming the latter signs up to a radical political reform agenda - as Chuka is clearly already mapping out. All the LDs need is a clear run in their top 50 seats; not having to lose deposits elsewhere is actually a benefit.
In the long term, if the nascent political realignment leads to the hitherto unreachable goal of voting reform, after which a minority support liberal party is assured a role on the nationwide political stage, why wouldn't they see this as a result?
There has been rather a differential between the CBI Industrial Trends, the PMIs and manufacturing employment compared to poor figures for manufacturing output.
Chicago’s top prosecutor recused herself from the investigation into the attack reported by Empire actor Jussie Smollett shortly after police requested another interview with the actor.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2019/feb/20/jussie-smollett-attack-investigation-chicago
And if the LibDems abandon 500+ constituencies its not going to help their long term grassroots development.
They are just not that bright.
We're down to one in Wales. Predictably, Labour have lumbered a large sea bird around Kirsty's neck, so I expect we will be down to zero next election.
(And this was a country where the old Liberals once took every seat bar one, Merthyr Tydfil).
In fact, for all of this week's (totally justified) excitement, I can envisage Farage's party doing better than Chuka's in a general election - especially if Brexit is 'betrayed' but perhaps even if it isn't.
Is the appetite for a new centre party which is not called the Liberal Democrats really greater than that for a genuinely new and radical offering in the reactionary bigot space? I'm not sure it is.
If TM can get an extension she could destroy TIG and Corbyn in a GE.
Headers or comments?
Interesting times...
For the Lib Dems, as so often, May's locals are going to be crucial. If they do well (and as they'll be fighting seats last fought on General Election day 2015, they could hardly do worse), it'll put them in a much better position to negotiate with TIG.
I would not be at all surprised if the deal falls she will surprise everyone and call a referendum and in one act, defenestrate ERG, and check mate Corbyn
The political climate is highly charged but I do believe these last few days has seen the end of Corbyn becoming PM and if so, he has all been worthwhile
My heart bleeds Chris, it really does. Can't possibly imagine what it must be like for other people to have a vested interest in smearing your group. Well I sure hope there aren't people out there who will go to any length to discredit you, that would be really unfortunate.
Best of luck Chris and good luck fighting those evil vested interests.
Well, second thoughts, maybe I am.
But how I would view it is not that women have more courage than men - I don't think they do - but that they are less prone to extreme cowardice.
Extreme cowardice is the mark of a real man.
https://goo.gl/images/Z6jDST
Admittedly the new party couldn't believe their luck when Hatton and Galloway rejoined Labour and the BBC were not unhelpful when they went full Derby and Joan with their vox pops to show the party the modern Tory women had just left