Brexit is the poundland glue binding the disparate parts of TIG together.
Once the UK exits (or remains) it will come apart in double quick time.
I imagine they would be able to find a lot of common ground in the centre:
- Pro EU/anti Brexit - Continued mass immigration (all parties want this, but the rhetoric is different) - High public spending on front line services - PR/House of Lords reform (all small parties want this as it gets them more power) - General disdain towards the working class and those who voted Brexit
Can anyone explain how this 'Independent Group' are going to come up with domestic policies that appeal to Labour voters, when one of their members has spent the last 9 years being one of the main cheerleaders for austerity (Soubry)?
They can't. The only thing that holds them together is opposition to Brexit (and Corbyn). That's it.
I think you are overestimating the attention the average voter pays to the details.
How could anyone who backed Blair's New Labour back the snti-semetic, pro Brexit Corbyn sh1tshow? Yet many do. Politics is not rational
So has anyone discussed the scenario where tiggers split the Tory vote worse than the Labour vote and put Corbyn into number 10?
Very unlikely because most Tories were Leave supporters.
It depends how leave-y Labour are perceived as; they may still be able to sit on the fence in that way oppositions can do and governments can’t. There’s also evidence that Brexit is not that salient as an issue for many Labour voters (maybe that’s Lab Leavers not Lab remainers though). If the TigDems look a bit Cameroony you can see them repelling the left-wing vote while attracting less right-wing Tories.
REAKING: Times/YouGov voter intention poll Con 38 Lab 26 *TIG 14* LD 7 SNP/Plaid 5 Other 11
LOOOOOOOLLLLLLL
Simply noise so far. There hasn't been time for sober reaction. If it's like that in three months Labour should officially soil themselves.
That said, there was a poll not long ago wasn't there which put Labour on around 25% if they didn't try to reverse Brexit. So it's not crazily improbable.
REAKING: Times/YouGov voter intention poll Con 38 Lab 26 *TIG 14* LD 7 SNP/Plaid 5 Other 11
LOOOOOOOLLLLLLL
A party a couple of days old polling double the Lib Dem score.
You've got to laugh haven't you?
'Twas the same in the 1980s. People like novelty. The good news from the LibDem perspective is that TIG isn't pushing them down that much and has pulled a lot of support across from Labour. Will be interesting to see if today's news dents the Tory score.
The two main parties in a two party system have spent the last couple of years trying to bring the two party system to an end by their actions.
The peril for both of them now is what calculations other MPs start to make once they start to see some polling on this and for Labour in particular the search for purity leads to repeated shootings in the foot. After JC responded yesterday the only surprise was only one of theirs went last night.
REAKING: Times/YouGov voter intention poll Con 38 Lab 26 *TIG 14* LD 7 SNP/Plaid 5 Other 11
LOOOOOOOLLLLLLL
Simply noise so far. There hasn't been time for sober reaction. If it's like that in three months Labour should officially soil themselves.
That said, there was a poll not long ago wasn't there which put Labour on around 25% if they didn't try to reverse Brexit. So it's not crazily improbable.
Agreed, though even if it's not soiling time yet, still very alarming numbers for Labour.
I am not getting excited by this initial polling...at the moment they have no policies, other than I think most people know them as Remain. Other than that, I am sure there are lots of people just pinning what they think they will be and telling polling company accordingly.
Those figures on the left are a whole lot more damning for Labour. How can they be 8 points adrift of this lot two years into a Parliament? You would have expected even the Marquis of Granby to be 15 points ahead.
And these polls showing them adrift are starting to become a trend. A disturbing one for Labour.
I am not getting excited by this initial polling...at the moment they have no policies, other than I think most people know them as Remain. Other than that, I am sure there are lots of people just pinning what they think they will be and telling polling company accordingly.
Well there's two questions: Can tiggers survive as an electoral force, and what relative effect will they have on the big two in the next election? I'd say the Yougov poll is pretty much meaningless on the first question, but a cause for extremely cautious optimism for Tories on the second question
But, um, asking for a friend, would it raise too many PB eyebrows if my, er, friend feels disappointment at Heidi Allen resigning, if only because my, er, friend has taken quite a fancy to her?
Richard Harrington sitting on the government benches. Rumours of his defection were obviously exaggerated.
After the next iteration of the meaningful vote, I think, unless things change. He's very loyal, a real party man and has been a supporter of Theresa May, but he won't remain in a government taking us to a crash-out no-deal.
I am not getting excited by this initial polling...at the moment they have no policies, other than I think most people know them as Remain. Other than that, I am sure there are lots of people just pinning what they think they will be and telling polling company accordingly.
As it happens, I would not be surprised if at some point, TIG led in a poll or two, but it's likely to be froth.
It makes sense for TIG to leave themselves as a blank sheet for as long as possible to allow voters to project on to them.
If they can keep the momentum going in both defections and polling then they can build a critical mass.
I have my doubts though about the driving premise of the whole exercise in terms of its longevity.
Exactly.
Other than a position on Brexit the Tiggers don't really need any clear policies, not yet anyway. All they need to appear to be is something different from two main parties who're not making any progress on anything and the fact that they're constituted of MPs previously from both those parties only helps.
REAKING: Times/YouGov voter intention poll Con 38 Lab 26 *TIG 14* LD 7 SNP/Plaid 5 Other 11
LOOOOOOOLLLLLLL
12 Smiling Theresa Mays.......
If that lasts a while, the incentive for Labour to get a leader with whom TIG and the LibDems (and probably SNP and Plaid) could do business will start to grow.
Not that I expect Labour to revolt again any time soon.
But, um, asking for a friend, would it raise too many PB eyebrows if my, er, friend feels disappointment at Heidi Allen resigning, if only because my, er, friend has taken quite a fancy to her?
Remember, I'm asking for my, er, friend!
I've found myself thinking similar about Luciana Berger.
Could be worse I suppose, it could be Anna Soubry.
The way Brexit is being handled, we'll move from just inside the tent with opt-outs, to just outside the tent with opt-ins.
Of course there will be administrative and clerking problems.
But in 2022, how many extra votes will the boast 'I'm an ardent remainer' be worth? The LDs excellent on-the-ground operation will be worth more. But---and this is the point--it is unlikely to be any better than last time.
It's no less absurd to have Brexit as a political dividing line than anything else. In Ireland, for a long time political divisions were based on the respective parties' views on events in 1916-1924.
For a long time we were content to grumpily co-exist with different views on our membership of a trading bloc while perceiving idiocy and/or evil in those who differed in their view of whether the state should spend 38% or 42% of GDP. Perceiving idiocy and/or evil with those of a differing view about membership of a rrade association is no more or less ridiculous a thing to fall out about. Everyone's views are shades of grey. But humans are regrettably hard-wired to perceive us and thems, and to find reasons to despise thems.
It makes sense for TIG to leave themselves as a blank sheet for as long as possible to allow voters to project on to them.
If they can keep the momentum going in both defections and polling then they can build a critical mass.
I have my doubts though about the driving premise of the whole exercise in terms of its longevity.
Exactly.
Other than a position on Brexit the Tiggers don't really need any clear policies, not yet anyway. All they need to appear to be is something different from two main parties who're not making any progress on anything and the fact that they're constituted of MPs previously from both those parties only helps.
Spot on. And that is why their strategy is exactly right.
But, um, asking for a friend, would it raise too many PB eyebrows if my, er, friend feels disappointment at Heidi Allen resigning, if only because my, er, friend has taken quite a fancy to her?
Remember, I'm asking for my, er, friend!
I've found myself thinking similar about Luciana Berger.
Could be worse I suppose, it could be Anna Soubry.
Berger's got that hot mum at the school gates/work wife schtick.
But, um, asking for a friend, would it raise too many PB eyebrows if my, er, friend feels disappointment at Heidi Allen resigning, if only because my, er, friend has taken quite a fancy to her?
Remember, I'm asking for my, er, friend!
I've found myself thinking similar about Luciana Berger.
Could be worse I suppose, it could be Anna Soubry.
Liz Kendall is also a possible Tigger. Liz, Heidi and Luciana all in the same party?
The YouGov normal poll with Labour only down one is good considering the wall to wall coverage of the Labour resignations . Now that some Tories have jumped ship we best wait to see whether that effects things . But its clear Labour will be hit badly especially in urban areas if they don’t support a second vote .
REAKING: Times/YouGov voter intention poll Con 38 Lab 26 *TIG 14* LD 7 SNP/Plaid 5 Other 11
LOOOOOOOLLLLLLL
12 Smiling Theresa Mays.......
If that lasts a while, the incentive for Labour to get a leader with whom TIG and the LibDems (and probably SNP and Plaid) could do business will start to grow.
Not that I expect Labour to revolt again any time soon.
Quite. It's not gonna happen. Imagine (say) Keir Starmer becoming Labour leader. How would the vocal Momentum-Owen Jones-Novara Media faction take that? The news would be little else but Labour splits.
Labour has left the moderates and there's no going back. The TIGgers have finally realised it; some of their former colleagues are a bit slower on the uptake.
The YouGov normal poll with Labour only down one is good considering the wall to wall coverage of the Labour resignations . Now that some Tories have jumped ship we best wait to see whether that effects things . But its clear Labour will be hit badly especially in urban areas if they don’t support a second vote .
But, um, asking for a friend, would it raise too many PB eyebrows if my, er, friend feels disappointment at Heidi Allen resigning, if only because my, er, friend has taken quite a fancy to her?
Remember, I'm asking for my, er, friend!
I've found myself thinking similar about Luciana Berger.
Could be worse I suppose, it could be Anna Soubry.
Liz Kendall is also a possible Tigger. Liz, Heidi and Luciana all in the same party?
Can anyone explain how this 'Independent Group' are going to come up with domestic policies that appeal to Labour voters, when one of their members has spent the last 9 years being one of the main cheerleaders for austerity (Soubry)?
They can't. The only thing that holds them together is opposition to Brexit (and Corbyn). That's it.
I think you are overestimating the attention the average voter pays to the details.
How could anyone who backed Blair's New Labour back the snti-semetic, pro Brexit Corbyn sh1tshow? Yet many do. Politics is not rational
But that's the other way round (when you have the benefit of inheriting the name badge from one of the big two). Admittedly, TIG has the benefit of novelty.. but there's no block vote which becomes yours to lose.
Comments
LOOOOOOOLLLLLLL
I think you are overestimating the attention the average voter pays to the details.
How could anyone who backed Blair's New Labour back the snti-semetic, pro Brexit Corbyn sh1tshow? Yet many do. Politics is not rational
(Obviously conducted before Con defections though).
Yeah, no one saw that coming at any time.
That said, there was a poll not long ago wasn't there which put Labour on around 25% if they didn't try to reverse Brexit. So it's not crazily improbable.
The peril for both of them now is what calculations other MPs start to make once they start to see some polling on this and for Labour in particular the search for purity leads to repeated shootings in the foot. After JC responded yesterday the only surprise was only one of theirs went last night.
Drinks all round!
I have my doubts lol.
EDIT: theoretically...
Yes, it will probably impress on the upside now three of the cleverest and most sensible Tories have joined the Tigger ranks. BOUNCE!
The better hope for the LibDems is that a one-election deal delivers PR and allows them a fuller role in politics nationwide thereafter.
https://twitter.com/MattChorley/status/1098192665257103365
And these polls showing them adrift are starting to become a trend. A disturbing one for Labour.
If they can keep the momentum going in both defections and polling then they can build a critical mass.
I have my doubts though about the driving premise of the whole exercise in terms of its longevity.
But, um, asking for a friend, would it raise too many PB eyebrows if my, er, friend feels disappointment at Heidi Allen resigning, if only because my, er, friend has taken quite a fancy to her?
Remember, I'm asking for my, er, friend!
Of course, nobody will have the faintest idea of how to model Tiggie figures.
why would they support it? staying the course, ridding themselves of a few more red tories and remaining ideologically pure is much more in character.
Other than a position on Brexit the Tiggers don't really need any clear policies, not yet anyway. All they need to appear to be is something different from two main parties who're not making any progress on anything and the fact that they're constituted of MPs previously from both those parties only helps.
Corbyn hauls Labour into another lead...not.
Especially other people.
Not that I expect Labour to revolt again any time soon.
However I think the Tiggers will poll in the 20s at an election. Labour are finished.
Could be worse I suppose, it could be Anna Soubry.
OK, even with TIG, sub-30 is more than achievable.
Get Galloway back in, set OJ and Bastani up to 11, stand back and you'll have an ideologically pure 28 % in no time.
For a long time we were content to grumpily co-exist with different views on our membership of a trading bloc while perceiving idiocy and/or evil in those who differed in their view of whether the state should spend 38% or 42% of GDP. Perceiving idiocy and/or evil with those of a differing view about membership of a rrade association is no more or less ridiculous a thing to fall out about.
Everyone's views are shades of grey. But humans are regrettably hard-wired to perceive us and thems, and to find reasons to despise thems.
Hands up who thinks that would withstand an election campaign where they're banging on about Brexit nonstop.
Labour has left the moderates and there's no going back. The TIGgers have finally realised it; some of their former colleagues are a bit slower on the uptake.
Come on, TIG! Put your parliamentary money where your mouths are!
TIG 110%
Leaver-stan Newport West and Peterborough. Unpromising Tigger territory.
I don't even think -- in these two forthcoming real tests -- the Tiggers will even save their deposits.
Can you imagine Chuka pounding the streets of Peterborough?