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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Now three CON MPs defect to the TIGers

SystemSystem Posts: 12,172
edited February 2019 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Now three CON MPs defect to the TIGers

The shifting sands of politics shift again. This must have not been an easy decision either. But it says a lot that some of the (ex) Tory MPs I respect the most have now left. https://t.co/xJmW5pq6NF

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    first.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    who will be next?

    Be interesting to see if some Labour MPs cross over later today.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,133
    It is incredible to hear labour MPs like Mcdonagh on sky now...opening talking about labour becoming a racist stalinist party. And challenging jezza to stop this.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Composition of House of Commons:

    Tory + DUP = 324
    Others (excl. Speaker) = 325

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/House_of_Commons_of_the_United_Kingdom#Current_composition
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Can anyone explain how this 'Independent Group' are going to come up with domestic policies that appeal to Labour voters, when one of their members has spent the last 9 years being one of the main cheerleaders for austerity (Soubry)?
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    https://twitter.com/DanielHewittITV/status/1098181401491529728
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    Danny565 said:

    Can anyone explain how this 'Independent Group' are going to come up with domestic policies that appeal to Labour voters, when one of their members has spent the last 9 years being one of the main cheerleaders for austerity (Soubry)?

    Labour in 2017 put together a manifesto their MPs managed to stand on...!
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,133
    edited February 2019
    Danny565 said:

    Can anyone explain how this 'Independent Group' are going to come up with domestic policies that appeal to Labour voters, when one of their members has spent the last 9 years being one of the main cheerleaders for austerity (Soubry)?

    Same way as they all stood on a platform to deliver brexit and they will now be the remain / rejoin party.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    https://twitter.com/philipjcowley/status/1098181896507318274
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,469
    dr_spyn said:

    https://twitter.com/philipjcowley/status/1098181896507318274

    Semantics.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    https://twitter.com/BBCHelenCatt/status/1098172731001061376

    Labour about to lose control of Brighton.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    dr_spyn said:

    https://twitter.com/DanielHewittITV/status/1098181401491529728

    The right response

    (Hope you are listening Jeremy)
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    Danny565 said:

    Can anyone explain how this 'Independent Group' are going to come up with domestic policies that appeal to Labour voters, when one of their members has spent the last 9 years being one of the main cheerleaders for austerity (Soubry)?

    Labour in 2017 put together a manifesto their MPs managed to stand on...!
    But my question was about voters, not about MPs.

    Unless Soubry has done a complete U-turn on all her views from the last 9 years (bar Brexit), what programme would she be willing to commit to that would appeal to Labour voters?
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    A rat is tying to get back on board a sinking ship?

    https://twitter.com/BBCPolitics/status/1098181665304788993

    Galloway has reapplied to join Labour.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    Sodium said:

    How would this new party vote in a motion of no confidence in the government?

    That is if it is even considered a party in that sense.

    Yeah, was wondering that. Might be they don't have anything resembling whipping, just a loose arrangement.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    AndyJS said:

    Composition of House of Commons:

    Tory + DUP = 324
    Others (excl. Speaker) = 325

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/House_of_Commons_of_the_United_Kingdom#Current_composition

    Others (exc Speaker, exc Sinn Fein) =318
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Respectful letter from May. What any sane leader would put out in the circumstances.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,149
    FPT

    As I predicted a very gracious letter from TM to the three defectors and as Sky has just said, so much in contrast to Corbyn's attitude to his defectors
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Philip_Thompson said:

    AndyJS said:

    Composition of House of Commons:

    Tory + DUP = 324
    Others (excl. Speaker) = 325

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/House_of_Commons_of_the_United_Kingdom#Current_composition

    Others (exc Speaker, exc Sinn Fein) =318
    Before it didn't matter if Sinn Fein turned up. Now it would do.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,164
    Danny565 said:

    Can anyone explain how this 'Independent Group' are going to come up with domestic policies that appeal to Labour voters, when one of their members has spent the last 9 years being one of the main cheerleaders for austerity (Soubry)?

    Why would ayone bother to explain anything to you? About anything?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,133
    dr_spyn said:

    A rat is tying to get back on board a sinking ship?

    https://twitter.com/BBCPolitics/status/1098181665304788993

    Galloway has reapplied to join Labour.

    It’s all going perfectly for jezza...the non-believers are jumping ship and the far left strengthing their grip on the party.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    Continued on page 94.

    https://twitter.com/nedsimons/status/1098183355655430146

    Predictable, but forgot warmongering running dogs.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    It is incredible to hear labour MPs like Mcdonagh on sky now...opening talking about labour becoming a racist stalinist party. And challenging jezza to stop this.

    She should be expelled.

    There is a precedent.

    Sharon Atkin (PPC for Nottingham East) was expelled for calling the Labour Party racist. By Neil Kinnock.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    A real pity.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,744
    TIG (assuming you count the three ex-Tories who say they'll sit "alongside" TIG, rather than outright joining them), is now bigger than the DUP, and are only 2 MPs off being larger than the Lib Dems (or 1 MP, if that MP was previously a Lib Dem).
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1098183931403399168

    Numbers games.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    Sodium said:

    Andrew said:

    Sodium said:

    How would this new party vote in a motion of no confidence in the government?

    That is if it is even considered a party in that sense.

    Yeah, was wondering that. Might be they don't have anything resembling whipping, just a loose arrangement.
    I think that the name Independents Group was chosen to excuse the lack of cohesiveness at the beginning so they would not all vote to force a general election before they have organised properly.

    The more I think about it the more I'm wondering if they will join with the Lib Dems somehow. They need the organisation and activist base to have any chance of retaining their seats at the next election. And the Lib Dems need something, anything to try to become relevant again.
    Not sure if the LibDems are not an inferior good (sorry Mike).
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,914
    A bigger grouping than the DUP which is significant. It's what the country and REMAINERS needed. This this does have the potential to be a game changer
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,744
    Philip_Thompson said:

    AndyJS said:

    Composition of House of Commons:

    Tory + DUP = 324
    Others (excl. Speaker) = 325

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/House_of_Commons_of_the_United_Kingdom#Current_composition

    Others (exc Speaker, exc Sinn Fein) =318
    Others, excl Speaker, excl DepSps, excl, SF, excl vacancies, excl MPs in jail = 313.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,621
    Danny565 said:

    Can anyone explain how this 'Independent Group' are going to come up with domestic policies that appeal to Labour voters, when one of their members has spent the last 9 years being one of the main cheerleaders for austerity (Soubry)?

    They can't. The only thing that holds them together is opposition to Brexit (and Corbyn). That's it.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,914
    edited February 2019
    dr_spyn said:

    Continued on page 94.

    https://twitter.com/nedsimons/status/1098183355655430146

    Predictable, but forgot warmongering running dogs.

    Not a good idea positioning them as the most successful Labour Party ever.

    3 election wins

    2 regional wars.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,712
    Govt working majority is actually now 7 (was 13 so 3 defections reduce it by 6) - assuming Lab wins Newport by-election.

    However it's a bit better than that as:

    - Lady Hermon voting for the Govt in VONC - takes it back up to 9.

    - Three other Independents (non TIG) abstained in last VONC - so back up to 12 if they do the same again.

    - TIG (or at least some TIG) likely to abstain as well.
  • PolruanPolruan Posts: 2,083
    Andrew said:

    Sodium said:

    How would this new party vote in a motion of no confidence in the government?

    That is if it is even considered a party in that sense.

    Yeah, was wondering that. Might be they don't have anything resembling whipping, just a loose arrangement.
    Isn’t that pretty much what the two main parties have these days?
  • DonTsInferno_DonTsInferno_ Posts: 108
    edited February 2019
    dr_spyn said:

    Continued on page 94.

    https://twitter.com/nedsimons/status/1098183355655430146

    Predictable, but forgot warmongering running dogs.

    They’re the party for people who did well out of the old regime and turn a blind eye to unsuccessful military interventions
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,268
    more follows

    And very likely more will follow.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,726
    https://twitter.com/dpjhodges/status/1098186055713476608?s=21
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited February 2019
    MikeL said:



    - TIG (or at least some TIG) likely to abstain as well.

    LOL, if they're going to abstain in a confidence vote, then that knackers their political positioning even more.

    How do they appeal to either ultra-Remainers or disillusioned Labour voters at the next election, if one of their first votes is to keep a Brexit-implementing Tory government in office?!?

    In fact, if anything, I would say this gives Corbyn a big incentive to call another VONC asap.
  • swing_voterswing_voter Posts: 1,464
    Surely a GE is a step closer - both TM and JC would love to see the TIG killed at birth.....
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,712
    Thread header needs correcting - TIG has 11 MPs not 10 (presumably forgot Joan Ryan).
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,621
    Sodium said:

    Andrew said:

    Sodium said:

    How would this new party vote in a motion of no confidence in the government?

    That is if it is even considered a party in that sense.

    Yeah, was wondering that. Might be they don't have anything resembling whipping, just a loose arrangement.
    I think that the name Independents Group was chosen to excuse the lack of cohesiveness at the beginning so they would not all vote to force a general election before they have organised properly.

    The more I think about it the more I'm wondering if they will join with the Lib Dems somehow. They need the organisation and activist base to have any chance of retaining their seats at the next election. And the Lib Dems need something, anything to try to become relevant again.
    The TIG group is a Tory-Lite Remainers club. It has Remain in common with the LibDems but not much else.

    There seem to be four groupings:

    Left, Leave Corbyn's Labour
    Left Remain SNP, LDs, PC, Green
    Right Leave May's Tories
    Right Remain The TIG group

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,133
    williamglenn said:

    twitter.com/dpjhodges/status/1098186055713476608?s=21

    He was spinning trying to get a people vote in yesterday’s speech.
  • PolruanPolruan Posts: 2,083
    Roger said:

    A bigger grouping than the DUP which is significant. It's what the country and REMAINERS needed. This this does have the potential to be a game changer

    Presumably those numbers mean that if the Conservative party could be unified behind a policy supported by the Tiggers, May could ditch the DUP. Probably doesn’t change a lot in practice though, because everything after ‘unified’ seems superfluous. Realistically the only game-changer would be a few dozen more Labour MPs plus LDs formally aligning with Tiggers, giving the numbers to face down the ERG - though that would still require May to put Conservative unity behind the national interest which hasn’t looked that likely so far.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    FPT:
    AlastairMeeks said:

    Retweeted by Paul Masterton - there is a continuing rustling in the arras of the Remainy end of the Conservative party:

    https://twitter.com/SCrabbPembs/status/1098184025817133056

    The minister to watch is Richard Harrington.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    Sodium said:

    TOPPING said:

    Sodium said:

    Andrew said:

    Sodium said:

    How would this new party vote in a motion of no confidence in the government?

    That is if it is even considered a party in that sense.

    Yeah, was wondering that. Might be they don't have anything resembling whipping, just a loose arrangement.
    I think that the name Independents Group was chosen to excuse the lack of cohesiveness at the beginning so they would not all vote to force a general election before they have organised properly.

    The more I think about it the more I'm wondering if they will join with the Lib Dems somehow. They need the organisation and activist base to have any chance of retaining their seats at the next election. And the Lib Dems need something, anything to try to become relevant again.
    Not sure if the LibDems are not an inferior good (sorry Mike).
    Maybe a combination of the two groups and rebranding is going to happen, like when the Lib Dems were formed from two different parties.

    It makes no sense for two parties with very similar ideologies not to work together somehow.
    True - and yes possibly. But then the onus is on the LibDems to transform (again). Not sure I see that happening.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,631
    Danny565 said:

    MikeL said:



    - TIG (or at least some TIG) likely to abstain as well.

    LOL, if they're going to abstain in a confidence vote, then that knackers their political positioning even more.

    How do they appeal to either ultra-Remainers or disillusioned Labour voters at the next election, if one of their first votes is to keep a Brexit-implementing Tory government in office?!?

    In fact, if anything, I would say this gives Corbyn a big incentive to call another VONC.
    I can see Corbyn calling a vote of confidence next week after the Brexit votes, if only to smoke out the position of the TIG group on these matters.
  • BannedInParisBannedInParis Posts: 2,191
    dr_spyn said:

    Continued on page 94.

    https://twitter.com/nedsimons/status/1098183355655430146

    Predictable, but forgot warmongering running dogs.

    something something fighting the last war something
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,149
    Danny565 said:

    MikeL said:



    - TIG (or at least some TIG) likely to abstain as well.

    LOL, if they're going to abstain in a confidence vote, then that knackers their political positioning even more.

    How do they appeal to either ultra-Remainers or disillusioned Labour voters at the next election, if one of their first votes is to keep a Brexit-implementing Tory government in office?!?

    In fact, if anything, I would say this gives Corbyn a big incentive to call another VONC asap.
    And he would lose it - indeed the lib dems will not agree to it without a second referendum
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414
    MikeL said:

    Govt working majority is actually now 7 (was 13 so 3 defections reduce it by 6) - assuming Lab wins Newport by-election.

    However it's a bit better than that as:

    - Lady Hermon voting for the Govt in VONC - takes it back up to 9.

    - Three other Independents (non TIG) abstained in last VONC - so back up to 12 if they do the same again.

    - TIG (or at least some TIG) likely to abstain as well.

    Although, the question is not so much VONC,, but whether this government is capable of getting controversial legislation through at all.
    The deckchairs are being re arranged once more.
    No closer to a Brexit decision.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,219
    Corbyn calling a VONC puts the (particularly ex-Labour Tiggers) in the position of "propping up the Tories" as a narrative now.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    edited February 2019
    Danny565 said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    Danny565 said:

    Can anyone explain how this 'Independent Group' are going to come up with domestic policies that appeal to Labour voters, when one of their members has spent the last 9 years being one of the main cheerleaders for austerity (Soubry)?

    Labour in 2017 put together a manifesto their MPs managed to stand on...!
    But my question was about voters, not about MPs.

    Unless Soubry has done a complete U-turn on all her views from the last 9 years (bar Brexit), what programme would she be willing to commit to that would appeal to Labour voters?
    We should be careful not to judge by the prism of the existing party structure. The issue isn't whether there are differences within the new proto-party, because obviously there are. The question is whether these are wider and less bridgeable than the differences within Tory as was and within Labour as was.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,741
    TOPPING said:

    Sodium said:

    TOPPING said:

    Sodium said:

    Andrew said:

    Sodium said:

    How would this new party vote in a motion of no confidence in the government?

    That is if it is even considered a party in that sense.

    Yeah, was wondering that. Might be they don't have anything resembling whipping, just a loose arrangement.
    I think that the name Independents Group was chosen to excuse the lack of cohesiveness at the beginning so they would not all vote to force a general election before they have organised properly.

    The more I think about it the more I'm wondering if they will join with the Lib Dems somehow. They need the organisation and activist base to have any chance of retaining their seats at the next election. And the Lib Dems need something, anything to try to become relevant again.
    Not sure if the LibDems are not an inferior good (sorry Mike).
    Maybe a combination of the two groups and rebranding is going to happen, like when the Lib Dems were formed from two different parties.

    It makes no sense for two parties with very similar ideologies not to work together somehow.
    True - and yes possibly. But then the onus is on the LibDems to transform (again). Not sure I see that happening.
    No need for a merger, just an alliance agreement for a coupon election.
  • david_kendrick1david_kendrick1 Posts: 325
    Heidi Allen is my MP. I'd be very surprised if she held her seat against an official Tory candidate in 2022. Sebastian Kindersley was an excellent LD candidate last time and was well beaten. I doubt that Heidi's undoubted hard work and charm will bridge the gap, standing as a 'Tigger/LD' candidate.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Pulpstar said:

    Corbyn calling a VONC puts the (particularly ex-Labour Tiggers) in the position of "propping up the Tories" as a narrative now.

    Yes, it also gives him legs to re-pursue the conference policy as a means of running down the clock should the next MV fail.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Danny565 said:

    MikeL said:



    - TIG (or at least some TIG) likely to abstain as well.

    LOL, if they're going to abstain in a confidence vote, then that knackers their political positioning even more.

    How do they appeal to either ultra-Remainers or disillusioned Labour voters at the next election, if one of their first votes is to keep a Brexit-implementing Tory government in office?!?

    In fact, if anything, I would say this gives Corbyn a big incentive to call another VONC asap.
    And he would lose it - indeed the lib dems will not agree to it without a second referendum
    Yes, he probably would lose it - but it would mean the Tiggers screwing their chances with huge swathes of their target audience at the next election when it does eventually come
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    FPT:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Retweeted by Paul Masterton - there is a continuing rustling in the arras of the Remainy end of the Conservative party:

    https://twitter.com/SCrabbPembs/status/1098184025817133056

    The minister to watch is Richard Harrington.
    Depending on the next couple of weeks, there might be a few to watch. NB:

    https://twitter.com/BenKentish/status/1098180822065180672
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    swing_voter said:

    Surely a GE is a step closer - both TM and JC would love to see the TIG killed at birth.....

    There are tons of reasons why a GE would be wrong right now. Plus, now, the risk that it drops right into the middle of Tiggermania.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677
    dr_spyn said:

    https://twitter.com/DanielHewittITV/status/1098181401491529728

    May has got some fucking cheek. "Decent, moderate and patriotic". The current tory party is delivering the exact opposite of those three qualities.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,133
    Danny565 said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Danny565 said:

    MikeL said:



    - TIG (or at least some TIG) likely to abstain as well.

    LOL, if they're going to abstain in a confidence vote, then that knackers their political positioning even more.

    How do they appeal to either ultra-Remainers or disillusioned Labour voters at the next election, if one of their first votes is to keep a Brexit-implementing Tory government in office?!?

    In fact, if anything, I would say this gives Corbyn a big incentive to call another VONC asap.
    And he would lose it - indeed the lib dems will not agree to it without a second referendum
    Yes, he probably would lose it - but it would mean the Tiggers screwing their chances with huge swathes of their target audience at the next election when it does eventually come
    Why? Most people take little notice of how people have previous voted (or abstained) in the past.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,914
    dr_spyn said:

    A rat is tying to get back on board a sinking ship?

    https://twitter.com/BBCPolitics/status/1098181665304788993

    Galloway has reapplied to join Labour.

    It just gets better! All they need is Philip Green and Shamina Begum and they've cracked it
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,219
    david_kendrick1 said:

    Heidi Allen is my MP. I'd be very surprised if she held her seat against an official Tory candidate in 2022. Sebastian Kindersley was an excellent LD candidate last time and was well beaten. I doubt that Heidi's undoubted hard work and charm will bridge the gap, standing as a 'Tigger/LD' candidate.

    TIG-Lib Dems might run on a coupon basis.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    david_kendrick1 said:

    Heidi Allen is my MP. I'd be very surprised if she held her seat against an official Tory candidate in 2022. Sebastian Kindersley was an excellent LD candidate last time and was well beaten. I doubt that Heidi's undoubted hard work and charm will bridge the gap, standing as a 'Tigger/LD' candidate.

    The LDs did very well in the locals there last year though (do you have any intel on that?) Obviously there's a long way to go with the TIG, but she looks in the best shape of any of them at present. It looks 50-50 to me.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    Sodium said:

    TOPPING said:

    Sodium said:

    Andrew said:

    Sodium said:

    How would this new party vote in a motion of no confidence in the government?

    That is if it is even considered a party in that sense.

    Yeah, was wondering that. Might be they don't have anything resembling whipping, just a loose arrangement.
    I think that the name Independents Group was chosen to excuse the lack of cohesiveness at the beginning so they would not all vote to force a general election before they have organised properly.

    The more I think about it the more I'm wondering if they will join with the Lib Dems somehow. They need the organisation and activist base to have any chance of retaining their seats at the next election. And the Lib Dems need something, anything to try to become relevant again.
    Not sure if the LibDems are not an inferior good (sorry Mike).
    Maybe a combination of the two groups and rebranding is going to happen, like when the Lib Dems were formed from two different parties.

    It makes no sense for two parties with very similar ideologies not to work together somehow.
    Their name would be Democrats. You heard it here first.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    Roger said:

    dr_spyn said:

    A rat is tying to get back on board a sinking ship?

    https://twitter.com/BBCPolitics/status/1098181665304788993

    Galloway has reapplied to join Labour.

    It just gets better! All they need is Philip Green and Shamina Begum and they've cracked it
    No, they need David Ike for the full set.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    Pulpstar said:

    david_kendrick1 said:

    Heidi Allen is my MP. I'd be very surprised if she held her seat against an official Tory candidate in 2022. Sebastian Kindersley was an excellent LD candidate last time and was well beaten. I doubt that Heidi's undoubted hard work and charm will bridge the gap, standing as a 'Tigger/LD' candidate.

    TIG-Lib Dems might run on a coupon basis.
    It would be utter insanity if they did not.

    But we have been here before, for those as old as me.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    When was the last time that Parliament had so many independents?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/Okwonga/status/1098187481915277315
  • SunnyJimSunnyJim Posts: 1,106
    Brexit is the poundland glue binding the disparate parts of TIG together.

    Once the UK exits (or remains) it will come apart in double quick time.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited February 2019
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Danny565 said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Danny565 said:

    MikeL said:



    - TIG (or at least some TIG) likely to abstain as well.

    LOL, if they're going to abstain in a confidence vote, then that knackers their political positioning even more.

    How do they appeal to either ultra-Remainers or disillusioned Labour voters at the next election, if one of their first votes is to keep a Brexit-implementing Tory government in office?!?

    In fact, if anything, I would say this gives Corbyn a big incentive to call another VONC asap.
    And he would lose it - indeed the lib dems will not agree to it without a second referendum
    Yes, he probably would lose it - but it would mean the Tiggers screwing their chances with huge swathes of their target audience at the next election when it does eventually come
    Why? Most people take little notice of how people have previous voted (or abstained) in the past.
    Nobody knows how MPs vote until opposition parties start banging on about how they voted come election time.

    Most people didn't know Theresa May had cut police numbers (in fact, I daresay quite a few people didn't even know she was previously Home Secretary) until Labour/Momentum started pushing that video of her telling the police they were "crying wolf" in the last few days of the 2017 election...

    At the next election, whenever the Tiggers start banging on about how bad Brexit is, or how they're opposed to various other things the Tories have done, the go-to response from Labour will be "but you kept them in office"...
  • TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,878
    AndyJS said:

    Composition of House of Commons:

    Tory + DUP = 324
    Others (excl. Speaker) = 325

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/House_of_Commons_of_the_United_Kingdom#Current_composition

    Nope. Sinn Fein won't turn up, and Paul Flynn (and Fiona Onasanya) won't be in attendance at the moment. Government still have a majority of 3.
  • PolruanPolruan Posts: 2,083
    IanB2 said:

    Sodium said:

    TOPPING said:

    Sodium said:

    Andrew said:

    Sodium said:

    How would this new party vote in a motion of no confidence in the government?

    That is if it is even considered a party in that sense.

    Yeah, was wondering that. Might be they don't have anything resembling whipping, just a loose arrangement.
    I think that the name Independents Group was chosen to excuse the lack of cohesiveness at the beginning so they would not all vote to force a general election before they have organised properly.

    The more I think about it the more I'm wondering if they will join with the Lib Dems somehow. They need the organisation and activist base to have any chance of retaining their seats at the next election. And the Lib Dems need something, anything to try to become relevant again.
    Not sure if the LibDems are not an inferior good (sorry Mike).
    Maybe a combination of the two groups and rebranding is going to happen, like when the Lib Dems were formed from two different parties.

    It makes no sense for two parties with very similar ideologies not to work together somehow.
    Their name would be Democrats. You heard it here first.
    Tiggeral Democrats?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,133
    Danny565 said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Danny565 said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Danny565 said:

    MikeL said:



    - TIG (or at least some TIG) likely to abstain as well.

    LOL, if they're going to abstain in a confidence vote, then that knackers their political positioning even more.

    How do they appeal to either ultra-Remainers or disillusioned Labour voters at the next election, if one of their first votes is to keep a Brexit-implementing Tory government in office?!?

    In fact, if anything, I would say this gives Corbyn a big incentive to call another VONC asap.
    And he would lose it - indeed the lib dems will not agree to it without a second referendum
    Yes, he probably would lose it - but it would mean the Tiggers screwing their chances with huge swathes of their target audience at the next election when it does eventually come
    Why? Most people take little notice of how people have previous voted (or abstained) in the past.
    Nobody knows how MPs vote until opposition parties start banging on about how they voted come election time.

    Most people didn't know Theresa May had cut police numbers (in fact, I daresay quite a few people didn't even know she was previously Home Secretary) until Labour/Momentum started pushing that video of her telling the police they were "crying wolf" in the last few days of the 2017 election...
    Abstaining in a vonc is totally different kettle of fish.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,406
    https://twitter.com/GeneralBoles/status/1098188592902475776
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    TheValiant said:

    AndyJS said:

    Composition of House of Commons:

    Tory + DUP = 324
    Others (excl. Speaker) = 325

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/House_of_Commons_of_the_United_Kingdom#Current_composition

    Nope. Sinn Fein won't turn up, and Paul Flynn (and Fiona Onasanya) won't be in attendance at the moment. Government still have a majority of 3.
    In Flynn's case there's no 'at the moment' about it.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,387
    AlastairMeeks said:

    When was the last time that Parliament had so many independents?

    There were 12 elected in 1945.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    FPT
    AlastairMeeks said:

    Nicky Morgan's speedy tweet in response raises my eyebrows a little:

    https://twitter.com/NickyMorgan01/status/1098178932904476672

    I thought Nicky had been cast out of the gang for being a Judas and working with JRM on Malthouse Compromise?
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,773
    Danny565 said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Danny565 said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Danny565 said:

    MikeL said:



    - TIG (or at least some TIG) likely to abstain as well.

    LOL, if they're going to abstain in a confidence vote, then that knackers their political positioning even more.

    How do they appeal to either ultra-Remainers or disillusioned Labour voters at the next election, if one of their first votes is to keep a Brexit-implementing Tory government in office?!?

    In fact, if anything, I would say this gives Corbyn a big incentive to call another VONC asap.
    And he would lose it - indeed the lib dems will not agree to it without a second referendum
    Yes, he probably would lose it - but it would mean the Tiggers screwing their chances with huge swathes of their target audience at the next election when it does eventually come
    Why? Most people take little notice of how people have previous voted (or abstained) in the past.

    At the next election, whenever the Tiggers start banging on about how bad Brexit is, or how they're opposed to various other things the Tories have done, the go-to response from Labour will be "but you kept them in office"...
    And the response will be. We will not tolerate Corbyn to become PM.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677
    Layla "Khaled" Moran turning it up to 11 on Sky News. It's like Baldy Old Vince is already dead.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,239
    IanB2 said:

    Sodium said:

    TOPPING said:

    Sodium said:

    Andrew said:

    Sodium said:

    How would this new party vote in a motion of no confidence in the government?

    That is if it is even considered a party in that sense.

    Yeah, was wondering that. Might be they don't have anything resembling whipping, just a loose arrangement.
    I think that the name Independents Group was chosen to excuse the lack of cohesiveness at the beginning so they would not all vote to force a general election before they have organised properly.

    The more I think about it the more I'm wondering if they will join with the Lib Dems somehow. They need the organisation and activist base to have any chance of retaining their seats at the next election. And the Lib Dems need something, anything to try to become relevant again.
    Not sure if the LibDems are not an inferior good (sorry Mike).
    Maybe a combination of the two groups and rebranding is going to happen, like when the Lib Dems were formed from two different parties.

    It makes no sense for two parties with very similar ideologies not to work together somehow.
    Their name would be Democrats. You heard it here first.
    "Reformist" has been rumoured.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    Tories taking a very classy tone so far, really shows up the Corbyn team.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,888
    Roger said:

    MattW said:

    Roger said:

    Two thirds of all MPs don't want to Leave the EU

    Two thirds of Labour MPs don't want Corbyn as leader.

    Parliamentary democracy rules OK!

    Four fifths of MPs voted in support of leaving the EU ...
    I must have missed that vote
    At third reading, the Commons passed the bill by 494 to 122 on 8 February 2017
  • BannedInParisBannedInParis Posts: 2,191
    Pulpstar said:

    Corbyn calling a VONC puts the (particularly ex-Labour Tiggers) in the position of "propping up the Tories" as a narrative now.

    "you've called one. you failed. you've called a second. you will fail again. what's the point in you, Jeremy?"
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    There must be several pol journos with their kids on half term break who are cursing the school holidays today.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,914
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    As I predicted a very gracious letter from TM to the three defectors and as Sky has just said, so much in contrast to Corbyn's attitude to his defectors

    ....Fiddling while Rome burns
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,133
    In other news, what the actual f##k...

    Alabama newspaper editor calls on KKK to lynch Democrats

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/world-us-canada-47295551
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810
    _Anazina_ said:

    Harris_Tweed said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    SandyRentool said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    Gallowgate said:

    https://twitter.com/seddonnews/status/1098165445834801153?s=21

    Grim. He certainly wont be getting my vote.

    Who cares? The entire mayoralty is a complete nonsense, geographically. It does NOT include Gateshead, which is effectively part of Newcastle despite some old-school parochial voices claiming otherwise.

    It's a classic example of what happens when you leave devolution at the mercy of parochial sentiment. The unit should have been Greater Newcastle, both sides of the Tyne, which would have commanded a population of around one million.

    Stupid.
    Gateshead is not part of Newcastle. It is part of County Durham. A Mayor covering the area between Tyne and Tees would be my choice. Well, either a mayor or a Prince Bishop.
    It has not been part of County Durham for more than four decades. Almost no-one under the age of 60 considers it so. Is Brixton part of Surrey?

    They should have built City Hall on the southbank in Gateshead and had a proper stab at an outward-looking Metro Mayoralty, a la Greater Manchester and Greater London. Instead, they chose parochialism and inward-looking stupidity.
    See also Andy Street in the West Mids, including cities which until 1974 were in Warwickshire (Brum and Cov) and Staffordshire (Wolverhampton). Plus odds and sods of historic Worcs and Shrops.

    Had the WMCA only included stuff which was in Warwickshire - especially if the boundary was effectively in a city centre like Newcastle - people would have laughed.
    Spot on. The North of Tyne thing should never have been allowed to happen. It is a geographical and economic nonsense, arguably worse than the disintegrated shambles they have currently!
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    So has anyone discussed the scenario where tiggers split the Tory vote worse than the Labour vote and put Corbyn into number 10?
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    edmundintokyo said:

    Tories taking a very classy tone so far, really shows up the Corbyn team.

    To be fair, they've had the opportunity to go to school on Labour's response, which has been a study text for how not to do it.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    rottenborough said:

    Pulpstar said:

    david_kendrick1 said:

    Heidi Allen is my MP. I'd be very surprised if she held her seat against an official Tory candidate in 2022. Sebastian Kindersley was an excellent LD candidate last time and was well beaten. I doubt that Heidi's undoubted hard work and charm will bridge the gap, standing as a 'Tigger/LD' candidate.

    TIG-Lib Dems might run on a coupon basis.
    It would be utter insanity if they did not.

    But we have been here before, for those as old as me.
    The difference is that the LibDems won't be able to demand (and would probably accept not having) a 50/50 shareout, as quite reasonably they did in 1983. The obvious deal is for TIG to steer clear of say the top 50 LD targets and the handful of others where the Greens and PC are competitive, in return for a free run in the rest. The LDs have a lot less to lose in organisational and electoral terms than they did in 1981.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Slackbladder said:

    Danny565 said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Danny565 said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Danny565 said:

    MikeL said:



    - TIG (or at least some TIG) likely to abstain as well.

    LOL, if they're going to abstain in a confidence vote, then that knackers their political positioning even more.

    How do they appeal to either ultra-Remainers or disillusioned Labour voters at the next election, if one of their first votes is to keep a Brexit-implementing Tory government in office?!?

    In fact, if anything, I would say this gives Corbyn a big incentive to call another VONC asap.
    And he would lose it - indeed the lib dems will not agree to it without a second referendum
    Yes, he probably would lose it - but it would mean the Tiggers screwing their chances with huge swathes of their target audience at the next election when it does eventually come
    Why? Most people take little notice of how people have previous voted (or abstained) in the past.

    At the next election, whenever the Tiggers start banging on about how bad Brexit is, or how they're opposed to various other things the Tories have done, the go-to response from Labour will be "but you kept them in office"...
    And the response will be. We will not tolerate Corbyn to become PM.
    So they'll be saying they consider a Brexit-implementing Tory government a lesser evil than a Labour government.

    Do you see the issues this may cause with a few of their target voters?
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    Danny565 said:

    Slackbladder said:

    Danny565 said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Danny565 said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Danny565 said:

    MikeL said:



    - TIG (or at least some TIG) likely to abstain as well.

    LOL, if they're going to abstain in a confidence vote, then that knackers their political positioning even more.

    How do they appeal to either ultra-Remainers or disillusioned Labour voters at the next election, if one of their first votes is to keep a Brexit-implementing Tory government in office?!?

    In fact, if anything, I would say this gives Corbyn a big incentive to call another VONC asap.
    And he would lose it - indeed the lib dems will not agree to it without a second referendum
    Yes, he probably would lose it - but it would mean the Tiggers screwing their chances with huge swathes of their target audience at the next election when it does eventually come
    Why? Most people take little notice of how people have previous voted (or abstained) in the past.

    At the next election, whenever the Tiggers start banging on about how bad Brexit is, or how they're opposed to various other things the Tories have done, the go-to response from Labour will be "but you kept them in office"...
    And the response will be. We will not tolerate Corbyn to become PM.
    So they'll be saying they consider a Brexit-implementing Tory government a lesser evil than a Labour government.

    Do you see the issues this may cause with a few of their target voters?
    Well, actually a Brexit-implementing Tory government a lesser evil than a Brexit-implementing Labour government....
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    Danny565 said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Danny565 said:

    MikeL said:



    - TIG (or at least some TIG) likely to abstain as well.

    LOL, if they're going to abstain in a confidence vote, then that knackers their political positioning even more.

    How do they appeal to either ultra-Remainers or disillusioned Labour voters at the next election, if one of their first votes is to keep a Brexit-implementing Tory government in office?!?

    In fact, if anything, I would say this gives Corbyn a big incentive to call another VONC asap.
    And he would lose it - indeed the lib dems will not agree to it without a second referendum
    Yes, he probably would lose it - but it would mean the Tiggers screwing their chances with huge swathes of their target audience at the next election when it does eventually come
    Voting No Confidence now means either supporting Corbyn as PM or voting for a No Deal as there's no time to force an election before Brexit Day.

    I think that means that the other opposition parties might well refuse to back a VONC, as it would effectively be a vote for No Deal. I don't think it works in Corbyn's favour.

    Brexit in 899 hours.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,253
    I think this could be big. Perhaps the main thing they need, the Tiggers, is for the Tory leadership to be captured by the hard right in the way that Labour's has been captured by the hard left. In that case, given a good leader for both TIG and the LDs, and if they work in tandem, I can see a new centrist grouping winning many seats at a GE. For example, if JC vs JRM were to be the choice for PM laid before the electorate, then many will bridle at that and will appreciate a serious alternative.

    Unfortunately (from the TIG viewpoint) I suspect the Tories are too pragmatic and power grubbing to allow that to happen. They will not choose a headbanger to replace TM. In which case we might be SDP Liberal Alliance all over again and the effect will be to hard-code the Tory Party into government for the foreseeable future.

    But then - wild card - there is Farage's new reactionary populist party potentially surging to the right of the Tories. That could make it all very different this time.

    Gosh, who knows. Really interesting time to be alive.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,387
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    In other news, what the actual f##k...

    Alabama newspaper editor calls on KKK to lynch Democrats

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/world-us-canada-47295551

    That's normal for Alabama.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Stereotomy said:

    So has anyone discussed the scenario where tiggers split the Tory vote worse than the Labour vote and put Corbyn into number 10?

    Very unlikely because most Tories were Leave supporters.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414
    _Anazina_ said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    Harris_Tweed said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    SandyRentool said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    Gallowgate said:

    https://twitter.com/seddonnews/status/1098165445834801153?s=21

    Grim. He certainly wont be getting my vote.

    Who cares? The entire mayoralty is a complete nonsense, geographically. It does NOT include Gateshead, which is effectively part of Newcastle despite some old-school parochial voices claiming otherwise.

    It's a classic example of what happens when you leave devolution at the mercy of parochial sentiment. The unit should have been Greater Newcastle, both sides of the Tyne, which would have commanded a population of around one million.

    Stupid.
    Gateshead is not part of Newcastle. It is part of County Durham. A Mayor covering the area between Tyne and Tees would be my choice. Well, either a mayor or a Prince Bishop.
    It has not been part of County Durham for more than four decades. Almost no-one under the age of 60 considers it so. Is Brixton part of Surrey?

    They should have built City Hall on the southbank in Gateshead and had a proper stab at an outward-looking Metro Mayoralty, a la Greater Manchester and Greater London. Instead, they chose parochialism and inward-looking stupidity.
    See also Andy Street in the West Mids, including cities which until 1974 were in Warwickshire (Brum and Cov) and Staffordshire (Wolverhampton). Plus odds and sods of historic Worcs and Shrops.

    Had the WMCA only included stuff which was in Warwickshire - especially if the boundary was effectively in a city centre like Newcastle - people would have laughed.
    Spot on. The North of Tyne thing should never have been allowed to happen. It is a geographical and economic nonsense, arguably worse than the disintegrated shambles they have currently!
    Particularly as I live south of Tyne. And am included. It is the historic county of Northumberland. Gateshead is similar to Newcastle. Rothbury, Haltwhistle and Berwick aren't.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176
    Quite a good picture:

    https://twitter.com/John2Win/status/1098185459317071873
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    TBH it's far too early to speculate about VONCs and/or a general election. This is a highly fluid situation and for the moment completely dominated by the looming No Deal deadline.
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,006
    TOPPING said:

    Sodium said:

    Andrew said:

    Sodium said:

    How would this new party vote in a motion of no confidence in the government?

    That is if it is even considered a party in that sense.

    Yeah, was wondering that. Might be they don't have anything resembling whipping, just a loose arrangement.
    I think that the name Independents Group was chosen to excuse the lack of cohesiveness at the beginning so they would not all vote to force a general election before they have organised properly.

    The more I think about it the more I'm wondering if they will join with the Lib Dems somehow. They need the organisation and activist base to have any chance of retaining their seats at the next election. And the Lib Dems need something, anything to try to become relevant again.
    Not sure if the LibDems are not an inferior good (sorry Mike).
    It would make more sense to break with the past and set up a new party that hopefully 90% of Lib Dems join as well
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    Slackbladder said:

    Danny565 said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Danny565 said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Danny565 said:

    MikeL said:



    - TIG (or at least some TIG) likely to abstain as well.

    LOL, if they're going to abstain in a confidence vote, then that knackers their political positioning even more.

    How do they appeal to either ultra-Remainers or disillusioned Labour voters at the next election, if one of their first votes is to keep a Brexit-implementing Tory government in office?!?

    In fact, if anything, I would say this gives Corbyn a big incentive to call another VONC asap.
    And he would lose it - indeed the lib dems will not agree to it without a second referendum
    Yes, he probably would lose it - but it would mean the Tiggers screwing their chances with huge swathes of their target audience at the next election when it does eventually come
    Why? Most people take little notice of how people have previous voted (or abstained) in the past.

    At the next election, whenever the Tiggers start banging on about how bad Brexit is, or how they're opposed to various other things the Tories have done, the go-to response from Labour will be "but you kept them in office"...
    And the response will be. We will not tolerate Corbyn to become PM.
    Doesn't exactly scream confidence in their electoral abilities, does it?
  • david_kendrick1david_kendrick1 Posts: 325
    The way Brexit is being handled, we'll move from just inside the tent with opt-outs, to just outside the tent with opt-ins.

    Of course there will be administrative and clerking problems.

    But in 2022, how many extra votes will the boast 'I'm an ardent remainer' be worth? The LDs excellent on-the-ground operation will be worth more. But---and this is the point--it is unlikely to be any better than last time.
This discussion has been closed.