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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Now three CON MPs defect to the TIGers

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  • nico67 said:

    The YouGov normal poll with Labour only down one is good considering the wall to wall coverage of the Labour resignations . Now that some Tories have jumped ship we best wait to see whether that effects things . But its clear Labour will be hit badly especially in urban areas if they don’t support a second vote .

    what on earth would a bad poll look like?
    The one with TIG included: 12 points behind a government in disarray and within MoE of Labour's worst-ever share in opposition?
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810

    _Anazina_ said:

    TGOHF said:

    https://capx.co/no-definition-no-soul-no-purpose-what-is-the-point-of-the-independent-group/

    "Adding three Tories to the group muddies this message and carries considerable risks for the new venture. I wonder if it is too much, too soon. At the very least, it prises attention away from the crisis unleashed upon the Labour party by the Eight’s defection. It gives swithering Labour MPs – for there are many who secretly and sometimes less than secretly agree with the defectors’ views on Corbyn – an excuse to cancel their appointments with their consciences. Plenty of Labour MPs could imagine themselves joining an explicitly anti-Corbyn group; the bar for joining what now effectively becomes a new political party is much higher."

    Wrong. However much you wish it were true.
    Great response, I love how you logically took his argument apart point-by-point
    Yes, it was a bit brief, he is predictably annoying. I've explained below.
  • viewcode said:

    IanB2 said:

    Fortunately, we one (or two) by-elections in the offing.

    Leaver-stan Newport West and Peterborough. Unpromising Tigger territory.

    I don't even think -- in these two forthcoming real tests -- the Tiggers will even save their deposits.

    Can you imagine Chuka pounding the streets of Peterborough?

    SDP fought P'boro in 1983 and got 23% from a previous Liberal 10%
    What was the direct equivalent of Brexit back in '83?
    IIRC the Labour Party stood under a manifesto in 83 that explicitly advocated leaving the EEC. Google "the longest suicide note in history".
    Yes but there was no Brexit process already in place back then.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,281

    TGOHF said:

    https://capx.co/no-definition-no-soul-no-purpose-what-is-the-point-of-the-independent-group/

    "Adding three Tories to the group muddies this message and carries considerable risks for the new venture. I wonder if it is too much, too soon. At the very least, it prises attention away from the crisis unleashed upon the Labour party by the Eight’s defection. It gives swithering Labour MPs – for there are many who secretly and sometimes less than secretly agree with the defectors’ views on Corbyn – an excuse to cancel their appointments with their consciences. Plenty of Labour MPs could imagine themselves joining an explicitly anti-Corbyn group; the bar for joining what now effectively becomes a new political party is much higher."

    I think it is overdoing it. It isn't like JRM has joined the Tiggers. Two of the three MPs who have left the Tories were fans of Cameron's direction for the Tory party, which wasn't a million miles away from New Labour.
    There has always been a significant overlap between the view of the moderates in the two major parties. If both are determined to rid themselves of their centrists, actively or passively, it will create a large constituency for a party of the centre.

    Support for remain is another overlapping but not identical set. Which encompasses somewhere around half of the electorate at a minimum.
  • Chris Williamson 'helping' on Sky News. FFS.
  • Barnesian said:

    Latest EMA using today's YouGov. (I'm ignoring TIG polls for the moment as hard to interpret.)

    Con 39.0% Lab 36.4% LD 9.6%

    Con 317
    Lab 254
    LD 17
    SNP 40
    PC 3
    Grn 1

    Con 9 short of overall majority (very similar to now)
    Con+DUP 327
    Lab+others 315

    Which will she choose - an early GE on her deal, or her deal with referendum on it? I think the former.

    Todays you gov is

    Cons 41
    Lab 33
    Libs 10
    Ukip 4
    Green 4

    Gives a con majority of 32
  • Chris Williamson 'helping' on Sky News. FFS.

    I am of the conclusion he is worse than Red Ken and Gorgeous George combined.
  • ydoethur said:

    Fortunately, we one (or two) by-elections in the offing.

    Leaver-stan Newport West and Peterborough. Unpromising Tigger territory.

    I don't even think -- in these two forthcoming real tests -- the Tiggers will even save their deposits.

    Can you imagine Chuka pounding the streets of Peterborough?

    Yes, but the vision always ends with a paramedic called by some kindly person sedating him and taking him away to calm down.

    Edit - the whole point is (leaving aside the lack of a Peterborough by-election) they are not a party (yet) so will not be fielding candidates. They may endorse the Liberal Democrats but I doubt it.
    The advantage of setting themselves up as they have rather than a new party is they are not under immediate pressure to prove themselves and risk a poor performance that would put off potential defectors. It would be smart of them not to contest either seat
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810
    TGOHF said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    TGOHF said:

    https://capx.co/no-definition-no-soul-no-purpose-what-is-the-point-of-the-independent-group/

    "Adding three Tories to the group muddies this message and carries considerable risks for the new venture. I wonder if it is too much, too soon. At the very least, it prises attention away from the crisis unleashed upon the Labour party by the Eight’s defection. It gives swithering Labour MPs – for there are many who secretly and sometimes less than secretly agree with the defectors’ views on Corbyn – an excuse to cancel their appointments with their consciences. Plenty of Labour MPs could imagine themselves joining an explicitly anti-Corbyn group; the bar for joining what now effectively becomes a new political party is much higher."

    Wrong. However much you wish it were true.
    You don't think adding in some huffing single issue remoaners muddies the waters of the stop Corbyn coalition ?

    Apart from Brexit - which could be put to bed in a month - what do these groups have in common other than "common purpose" and a dislike of bye elections ?

    They are sensible, sane, liberal and pro-business. Which for a large proportion of the electorate seems like sheer Nirvana compared to the anti-commerce, bigoted clowns we have controlling the two major parties.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,732
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    _Anazina_ said:

    TGOHF said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    TGOHF said:

    https://capx.co/no-definition-no-soul-no-purpose-what-is-the-point-of-the-independent-group/

    "Adding three Tories to the group muddies this message and carries considerable risks for the new venture. I wonder if it is too much, too soon. At the very least, it prises attention away from the crisis unleashed upon the Labour party by the Eight’s defection. It gives swithering Labour MPs – for there are many who secretly and sometimes less than secretly agree with the defectors’ views on Corbyn – an excuse to cancel their appointments with their consciences. Plenty of Labour MPs could imagine themselves joining an explicitly anti-Corbyn group; the bar for joining what now effectively becomes a new political party is much higher."

    Wrong. However much you wish it were true.
    You don't think adding in some huffing single issue remoaners muddies the waters of the stop Corbyn coalition ?

    Apart from Brexit - which could be put to bed in a month - what do these groups have in common other than "common purpose" and a dislike of bye elections ?

    They are sensible, sane, liberal and pro-business. Which for a large proportion of the electorate seems like sheer Nirvana compared to the anti-commerce, bigoted clowns we have controlling the two major parties.
    That must be why the Lib Dems keep getting such great results.
  • Barnesian said:

    Latest EMA using today's YouGov. (I'm ignoring TIG polls for the moment as hard to interpret.)

    Con 39.0% Lab 36.4% LD 9.6%

    Con 317
    Lab 254
    LD 17
    SNP 40
    PC 3
    Grn 1

    Con 9 short of overall majority (very similar to now)
    Con+DUP 327
    Lab+others 315

    Which will she choose - an early GE on her deal, or her deal with referendum on it? I think the former.

    Todays you gov is

    Cons 41
    Lab 33
    Libs 10
    Ukip 4
    Green 4

    Gives a con majority of 32
    Isn't his from a moving average of polling (the MA in the EMA)?
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092

    Barnesian said:

    Latest EMA using today's YouGov. (I'm ignoring TIG polls for the moment as hard to interpret.)

    Con 39.0% Lab 36.4% LD 9.6%

    Con 317
    Lab 254
    LD 17
    SNP 40
    PC 3
    Grn 1

    Con 9 short of overall majority (very similar to now)
    Con+DUP 327
    Lab+others 315

    Which will she choose - an early GE on her deal, or her deal with referendum on it? I think the former.

    Todays you gov is

    Cons 41
    Lab 33
    Libs 10
    Ukip 4
    Green 4

    Gives a con majority of 32
    Isn't his from a moving average of polling (the MA in the EMA)?
    But why do that when you can pick the poll you like most?
  • I know it seems a bit of an outlandish suggestion, but is it possible that the TIGgers actually know what they are doing and have a coherent plan?

    They were certainly right to wait until the Brexit endgame was in progress and at its most febrile. It's also meant that the threat of deselection has become very real for some. Six months ago there would have been no real prospect of Tories jumping ship to join Labour defectors.

    In terms of polling, bear in mind that the YouGov poll was taken when defections were only from the Labour side. How much might be peeled off that 38% for the Conservatives on the news of today's defections?

    It seems clear that the number of Labour if not Tory defectors will grow substantially in the forthcoming days. I expect that the TIG will become at least the 3rd opposition party, which is important in terms of HOC speaking rights. There is also quite a significant chance that Tom Watson will lead a huge block of MPs out in due course.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900


    That's where a referendum comes in, which gives some form of Brexit or anti-Brexit a majority .....


    Maybe - but I can't see leave winning again tbh. Just too much bad news, and the economic weather is getting worse every month.

    I'd guess we're heading for one of the two though.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,281
    "British tourists travelling to continental Europe may need to pay £52 for a visa in a few weeks after Spanish demands over the status of Gibraltar again derailed Brussels’ preparations for Brexit...."
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/feb/20/britons-may-need-52-visa-to-visit-mainland-europe-after-brexit
  • Chris Williamson 'helping' on Sky News. FFS.

    I am of the conclusion he is worse than Red Ken and Gorgeous George combined.
    He's flagging up Asa Winstanley as being responsible for rooting out anti-semites. You can't make this stuff up.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,712
    One potentially important issue is how TIG would be treated by broadcasters in a GE campaign.

    With no track record in any past elections they may not be given any significant coverage / not included in debates.

    However they might be included based on opinion poll ratings.

    I don't think it's clear cut - and it would be very important.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,138

    viewcode said:

    IanB2 said:

    Fortunately, we one (or two) by-elections in the offing.

    Leaver-stan Newport West and Peterborough. Unpromising Tigger territory.

    I don't even think -- in these two forthcoming real tests -- the Tiggers will even save their deposits.

    Can you imagine Chuka pounding the streets of Peterborough?

    SDP fought P'boro in 1983 and got 23% from a previous Liberal 10%
    What was the direct equivalent of Brexit back in '83?
    IIRC the Labour Party stood under a manifesto in 83 that explicitly advocated leaving the EEC. Google "the longest suicide note in history".
    Yes but there was no Brexit process already in place back then.
    Other than the second-largest political party running on a manifesto that explicitly backed leaving the EEC, after having boycotted the 1979 European Parliament election.
  • Nigelb said:

    "British tourists travelling to continental Europe may need to pay £52 for a visa in a few weeks after Spanish demands over the status of Gibraltar again derailed Brussels’ preparations for Brexit...."
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/feb/20/britons-may-need-52-visa-to-visit-mainland-europe-after-brexit

    Don’t those paella eating surrender monkeys know the UK holds all the cards.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,626
    HYUFD said:

    The 3 Tory defectors already sitting with their ex Labour colleagues in the Commons as the anti Brexit faction they comprise is now the joint third biggest grouping from England, Wales and Northern Ireland in the Commons on a clear anti Brexit ticket

    How many of them stood at the last election pledging not to implement Brexit? At the moment they look like the Voter-duping Collective. To coin a phrase "How can you trust anything the
    TIGgers ever say?"

    At least Wollaston's defection means my voting Tory next time has gone from 0/10 to 6/10. Polling bounce for the Tories!
  • eekeek Posts: 28,406
    _Anazina_ said:

    IanB2 said:

    TGOHF said:

    https://capx.co/no-definition-no-soul-no-purpose-what-is-the-point-of-the-independent-group/

    "Adding three Tories to the group muddies this message and carries considerable risks for the new venture. I wonder if it is too much, too soon. At the very least, it prises attention away from the crisis unleashed upon the Labour party by the Eight’s defection. It gives swithering Labour MPs – for there are many who secretly and sometimes less than secretly agree with the defectors’ views on Corbyn – an excuse to cancel their appointments with their consciences. Plenty of Labour MPs could imagine themselves joining an explicitly anti-Corbyn group; the bar for joining what now effectively becomes a new political party is much higher."

    It always was going to be a new party, if it gathered speed. What could be more anti-Corbyn than that?

    The desire is for something new in politics and for a different sort of politics. Looking (only) like a load of Labour retreads was a handicap, not an advantage.
    Spot on. If Tig had failed to attract Tories, Flashman and his hard-right brethren would be falling over themselves to tell us that it was a failed project because... it had failed to attract Tories.

    Looks very well orchestrated so far and has attracted several intelligent, switched on people from both sides of the House.
    https://twitter.com/NickBoles/status/1098204625688317954

    The yet bit is interesting...
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,042
    Williamson claiming false-flag antisemitism in interview on Sky News...
  • Barnesian said:

    Latest EMA using today's YouGov. (I'm ignoring TIG polls for the moment as hard to interpret.)

    Con 39.0% Lab 36.4% LD 9.6%

    Con 317
    Lab 254
    LD 17
    SNP 40
    PC 3
    Grn 1

    Con 9 short of overall majority (very similar to now)
    Con+DUP 327
    Lab+others 315

    Which will she choose - an early GE on her deal, or her deal with referendum on it? I think the former.

    Todays you gov is

    Cons 41
    Lab 33
    Libs 10
    Ukip 4
    Green 4

    Gives a con majority of 32
    Isn't his from a moving average of polling (the MA in the EMA)?
    Maybe but this last few days will have sent an earthquake through polling creating a chaotic average
  • eekeek Posts: 28,406
    Nigelb said:

    "British tourists travelling to continental Europe may need to pay £52 for a visa in a few weeks after Spanish demands over the status of Gibraltar again derailed Brussels’ preparations for Brexit...."
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/feb/20/britons-may-need-52-visa-to-visit-mainland-europe-after-brexit

    Everytime I said an extension was going to be impossible people on here have shot me down.

  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810

    _Anazina_ said:

    TGOHF said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    TGOHF said:

    https://capx.co/no-definition-no-soul-no-purpose-what-is-the-point-of-the-independent-group/

    "Adding three Tories to the group muddies this message and carries considerable risks for the new venture. I wonder if it is too much, too soon. At the very least, it prises attention away from the crisis unleashed upon the Labour party by the Eight’s defection. It gives swithering Labour MPs – for there are many who secretly and sometimes less than secretly agree with the defectors’ views on Corbyn – an excuse to cancel their appointments with their consciences. Plenty of Labour MPs could imagine themselves joining an explicitly anti-Corbyn group; the bar for joining what now effectively becomes a new political party is much higher."

    Wrong. However much you wish it were true.
    You don't think adding in some huffing single issue remoaners muddies the waters of the stop Corbyn coalition ?

    Apart from Brexit - which could be put to bed in a month - what do these groups have in common other than "common purpose" and a dislike of bye elections ?

    They are sensible, sane, liberal and pro-business. Which for a large proportion of the electorate seems like sheer Nirvana compared to the anti-commerce, bigoted clowns we have controlling the two major parties.
    That must be why the Lib Dems keep getting such great results.
    In fairness they are a bunch of nobodies, led by the invisible man.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,239

    I know it seems a bit of an outlandish suggestion, but is it possible that the TIGgers actually know what they are doing and have a coherent plan?

    They seem to. It all looks strikingly coordinated so far, as does a lot of the media commentary coming from pre-defectors, eg:

    https://twitter.com/IanDunt/status/1098203877537652736
    Jess Phillips joining TIG would be colossal... and given the abuse she gets from Momentum types, I could see it happening.

    Worth noting that she represents a seat that was Lib Dem-held until 2015, so it's not unthinkable that she could retain it as a TIG MP.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,138

    Chris Williamson 'helping' on Sky News. FFS.

    I am of the conclusion he is worse than Red Ken and Gorgeous George combined.
    Ken Livingstone: "You know who else was worse than me and Gorgeous George comb[Shut up - Ed]
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    MikeL said:

    One potentially important issue is how TIG would be treated by broadcasters in a GE campaign.

    With no track record in any past elections they may not be given any significant coverage / not included in debates.

    However they might be included based on opinion poll ratings.

    I don't think it's clear cut - and it would be very important.

    _Anazina_ said:

    TGOHF said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    TGOHF said:

    https://capx.co/no-definition-no-soul-no-purpose-what-is-the-point-of-the-independent-group/

    "Adding three Tories to the group muddies this message and carries considerable risks for the new venture. I wonder if it is too much, too soon. At the very least, it prises attention away from the crisis unleashed upon the Labour party by the Eight’s defection. It gives swithering Labour MPs – for there are many who secretly and sometimes less than secretly agree with the defectors’ views on Corbyn – an excuse to cancel their appointments with their consciences. Plenty of Labour MPs could imagine themselves joining an explicitly anti-Corbyn group; the bar for joining what now effectively becomes a new political party is much higher."

    Wrong. However much you wish it were true.
    You don't think adding in some huffing single issue remoaners muddies the waters of the stop Corbyn coalition ?

    Apart from Brexit - which could be put to bed in a month - what do these groups have in common other than "common purpose" and a dislike of bye elections ?

    They are sensible, sane, liberal and pro-business. Which for a large proportion of the electorate seems like sheer Nirvana compared to the anti-commerce, bigoted clowns we have controlling the two major parties.
    That must be why the Lib Dems keep getting such great results.
    In late 1980 the Liberals were polling 11-12%
  • Williamson:

    False flag claims of anti-semitism
    MSM biased against Jeremy
    Stop making stuff up
    Luciana Berger should have rung Jez because it 'takes two to tango'
  • Nigelb said:
    The dems love their old white men
  • _Anazina_ said:

    TGOHF said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    TGOHF said:

    https://capx.co/no-definition-no-soul-no-purpose-what-is-the-point-of-the-independent-group/

    "Adding three Tories to the group muddies this message and carries considerable risks for the new venture. I wonder if it is too much, too soon. At the very least, it prises attention away from the crisis unleashed upon the Labour party by the Eight’s defection. It gives swithering Labour MPs – for there are many who secretly and sometimes less than secretly agree with the defectors’ views on Corbyn – an excuse to cancel their appointments with their consciences. Plenty of Labour MPs could imagine themselves joining an explicitly anti-Corbyn group; the bar for joining what now effectively becomes a new political party is much higher."

    Wrong. However much you wish it were true.
    You don't think adding in some huffing single issue remoaners muddies the waters of the stop Corbyn coalition ?

    Apart from Brexit - which could be put to bed in a month - what do these groups have in common other than "common purpose" and a dislike of bye elections ?

    They are sensible, sane, liberal and pro-business. Which for a large proportion of the electorate seems like sheer Nirvana compared to the anti-commerce, bigoted clowns we have controlling the two major parties.
    I would imagine the situation for TiG maybe plays out like this,

    1. They sign a non-compete pact with Lib Dems - but no formal alliance - otherwise the two groups are fishing in the same pond i.e. more educated, wealthier, passionately anti-Brexit voters.

    2. Would expect (in general - there will always be exceptions), TiG to focus on wealthier, professional, urban areas which vote Labour but where they do not have the baggage of tuition fees that the Lib Dems do, while the Lib Dems focus on more rural, smaller / wealthier towns where they have an existing infrastructure;

    3. Hard to see how this move does not mean the Conservatives more pro-Brexit. The remain faction are now weakened and will be seen as potential defectors, which increases the chances of deselection, while every Tory remainer MP that goes, strengthens the hold of the hard-line Brexiteers; Plus that poll out showing the Tories on 38 with TiG on 14 suggests the Tories' voters are more hard-line Brexit than their MPs.

    4. It increases the chances of a hard-line Brexit. The Labour leadership will do everything it can to take an opposite position to the TiG and TM is now more in-hoc to the hardline factions / voters.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    edited February 2019
    dr_spyn said:

    Another witless call for a by-election this time from a Tory.

    https://twitter.com/Hannahjourno/status/1098204587071283200

    One politics lecturer had helpfully pointed out that there were only 4 by-elections triggered by MPs crossing the political divide. Mark Reckless was the last one.

    But as these people are demanding a "people's vote" the very least they can do, as such upstanding democrats, is give the people a vote on their new arrangements...

    These kinds of double standards do get noticed by the electorate.
  • Chris Williamson 'helping' on Sky News. FFS.

    Wingnut in Chief always helps...
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,281

    Williamson claiming false-flag antisemitism in interview on Sky News...

    Babbling about an alternate paranoid reality only really works if you're Donald Trump (and then only for a time), or the actual Stalin....
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,138

    Williamson claiming false-flag antisemitism in interview on Sky News...

    Ok. Which country or ethnic group is he blaming for this false flag operation? Shall we have a little guess... :)
  • viewcode said:

    Williamson claiming false-flag antisemitism in interview on Sky News...

    Ok. Which country or ethnic group is he blaming for this false flag operation? Shall we have a little guess... :)
    Well they think Zionists worked with Hitler, so.....
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    Pulpstar said:

    "Our aim is to pursue policies that are evidence-based, not led by ideology" - this is in the Lib Dems policy statement too.

    These things go on cycles. After Blair, Brown and the coalition, people were itching for some more ideology. Now, not so much.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,732
    viewcode said:

    Williamson claiming false-flag antisemitism in interview on Sky News...

    Ok. Which country or ethnic group is he blaming for this false flag operation? Shall we have a little guess... :)
    "I myself am a Mossad agent masquerading as a Labour MP..."
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,281

    Nigelb said:
    The dems love their old white men
    But probably not quite enough to actually nominate them.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,138
    eek said:

    Nigelb said:

    "British tourists travelling to continental Europe may need to pay £52 for a visa in a few weeks after Spanish demands over the status of Gibraltar again derailed Brussels’ preparations for Brexit...."
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/feb/20/britons-may-need-52-visa-to-visit-mainland-europe-after-brexit

    Everytime I said an extension was going to be impossible people on here have shot me down.

    Do you still think that an extension is impossible?
  • Nigelb said:

    "British tourists travelling to continental Europe may need to pay £52 for a visa in a few weeks after Spanish demands over the status of Gibraltar again derailed Brussels’ preparations for Brexit...."
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/feb/20/britons-may-need-52-visa-to-visit-mainland-europe-after-brexit

    That'll do the Spanish tourism industry a world of good......
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976
    _Anazina_ said:

    IanB2 said:

    TGOHF said:

    https://capx.co/no-definition-no-soul-no-purpose-what-is-the-point-of-the-independent-group/

    "Adding three Tories to the group muddies this message and carries considerable risks for the new venture. I wonder if it is too much, too soon. At the very least, it prises attention away from the crisis unleashed upon the Labour party by the Eight’s defection. It gives swithering Labour MPs – for there are many who secretly and sometimes less than secretly agree with the defectors’ views on Corbyn – an excuse to cancel their appointments with their consciences. Plenty of Labour MPs could imagine themselves joining an explicitly anti-Corbyn group; the bar for joining what now effectively becomes a new political party is much higher."

    It always was going to be a new party, if it gathered speed. What could be more anti-Corbyn than that?

    The desire is for something new in politics and for a different sort of politics. Looking (only) like a load of Labour retreads was a handicap, not an advantage.
    Spot on. If Tig had failed to attract Tories, Flashman and his hard-right brethren would be falling over themselves to tell us that it was a failed project because... it had failed to attract Tories.

    Looks very well orchestrated so far and has attracted several intelligent, switched on people from both sides of the House.
    Very well orchestrated. And the fact that almost all of them were under threat of deselection is pure coincidence.
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,006
    dixiedean said:

    What does this mean for next Con leader? Loss of 3 votes out of 317, surely increases the chances of ERG getting a candidate into the final 2.
    And from there would be a heavy favourite.

    What more could a new centrist grouping wish for than an ERG-led Tory party and a Corbyn-led Labour Party?

  • 3. Hard to see how this move does not mean the Conservatives more pro-Brexit. The remain faction are now weakened and will be seen as potential defectors, which increases the chances of deselection, while every Tory remainer MP that goes, strengthens the hold of the hard-line Brexiteers; Plus that poll out showing the Tories on 38 with TiG on 14 suggests the Tories' voters are more hard-line Brexit than their MPs.

    In the long term yes, but in the short term what matters is TMay, and TMay's whole thing seems to be running around frantically greasing whichever wheel is squeakiest.
  • "false-flag antisemitism"

    oh.

    oh wow.
  • MikeL said:

    One potentially important issue is how TIG would be treated by broadcasters in a GE campaign.

    With no track record in any past elections they may not be given any significant coverage / not included in debates.

    However they might be included based on opinion poll ratings.

    I don't think it's clear cut - and it would be very important.

    It's not clear cut, though I imagine the media companies will want to appear fair and avoid any unnecessary controversy, so I'd guess TIG (or any alliance within which TIG sit) would be treated on the basis of:
    - The number of candidates nominated;
    - Opinion poll scores;
    - Performance in other elections: local elections, devolved administrations, by-elections etc.
    Though I wouldn't be surprised if some effective discount was applied on the basis of a lack of history and hence an inability to prove that they can cut it on the biggest stage.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871

    _Anazina_ said:

    TGOHF said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    TGOHF said:

    https://capx.co/no-definition-no-soul-no-purpose-what-is-the-point-of-the-independent-group/

    "Adding three Tories to the group muddies this message and carries considerable risks for the new venture. I wonder if it is too much, too soon. At the very least, it prises attention away from the crisis unleashed upon the Labour party by the Eight’s defection. It gives swithering Labour MPs – for there are many who secretly and sometimes less than secretly agree with the defectors’ views on Corbyn – an excuse to cancel their appointments with their consciences. Plenty of Labour MPs could imagine themselves joining an explicitly anti-Corbyn group; the bar for joining what now effectively becomes a new political party is much higher."

    Wrong. However much you wish it were true.
    You don't think adding in some huffing single issue remoaners muddies the waters of the stop Corbyn coalition ?

    Apart from Brexit - which could be put to bed in a month - what do these groups have in common other than "common purpose" and a dislike of bye elections ?

    They are sensible, sane, liberal and pro-business. Which for a large proportion of the electorate seems like sheer Nirvana compared to the anti-commerce, bigoted clowns we have controlling the two major parties.
    I would imagine the situation for TiG maybe plays out like this,

    1. They sign a non-compete pact with Lib Dems - but no formal alliance - otherwise the two groups are fishing in the same pond i.e. more educated, wealthier, passionately anti-Brexit voters.

    2. Would expect (in general - there will always be exceptions), TiG to focus on wealthier, professional, urban areas which vote Labour but where they do not have the baggage of tuition fees that the Lib Dems do, while the Lib Dems focus on more rural, smaller / wealthier towns where they have an existing infrastructure;

    3. Hard to see how this move does not mean the Conservatives more pro-Brexit. The remain faction are now weakened and will be seen as potential defectors, which increases the chances of deselection, while every Tory remainer MP that goes, strengthens the hold of the hard-line Brexiteers; Plus that poll out showing the Tories on 38 with TiG on 14 suggests the Tories' voters are more hard-line Brexit than their MPs.

    4. It increases the chances of a hard-line Brexit. The Labour leadership will do everything it can to take an opposite position to the TiG and TM is now more in-hoc to the hardline factions / voters.
    On that last, Labour (even ex-TIG Labour) simply can't afford to turn its back on most of its members and its youthful electoral support like that.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    What levels does TIG need to reach in the polls before BoZo thinks defecting might be his best chance of becoming PM?
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,138

    viewcode said:

    Williamson claiming false-flag antisemitism in interview on Sky News...

    Ok. Which country or ethnic group is he blaming for this false flag operation? Shall we have a little guess... :)
    Well they think Zionists worked with Hitler, so.....
    Every time you think they can't get worse, they get worse... :(


  • Todays you gov is

    Cons 41
    Lab 33
    Libs 10
    Ukip 4
    Green 4

    Gives a con majority of 32

    Out of date. Polls without TIG are irrelevant now. And that one also came before news of Tory defectors to TIG.

    Also, it's important to include the full polling with DKs in the mix.

    Today's You Gov poll in the format that matters:

    Don't Know 31
    Con 22
    Lab 15
    TIG 9
    LD 4
    SNP 3
    Other 7
    Won't Vote 10

    The huge number of DKs illustrates I think why May would be utterly barking to call an election now.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    Scott_P said:

    What levels does TIG need to reach in the polls before BoZo thinks defecting might be his best chance of becoming PM?

    If we follow the same route as the SDP we might see TIG with a 10-15% lead by Christmas?
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,856

    I know it seems a bit of an outlandish suggestion, but is it possible that the TIGgers actually know what they are doing and have a coherent plan?

    They seem to. It all looks strikingly coordinated so far, as does a lot of the media commentary coming from pre-defectors, eg:

    https://twitter.com/IanDunt/status/1098203877537652736
    "I was born Labour and I thought I'd die Labour" - this sort of thing puts me right off. Makes it sound like a religion.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,281
    Corby and May return the compliment by not mentioning his group at all...
    https://twitter.com/ChukaUmunna/status/1098195425310531584
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871

    MikeL said:

    One potentially important issue is how TIG would be treated by broadcasters in a GE campaign.

    With no track record in any past elections they may not be given any significant coverage / not included in debates.

    However they might be included based on opinion poll ratings.

    I don't think it's clear cut - and it would be very important.

    It's not clear cut, though I imagine the media companies will want to appear fair and avoid any unnecessary controversy, so I'd guess TIG (or any alliance within which TIG sit) would be treated on the basis of:
    - The number of candidates nominated;
    - Opinion poll scores;
    - Performance in other elections: local elections, devolved administrations, by-elections etc.
    Though I wouldn't be surprised if some effective discount was applied on the basis of a lack of history and hence an inability to prove that they can cut it on the biggest stage.
    1983 surely provides the precedent.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    kinabalu said:

    Barnesian said:

    Latest EMA using today's YouGov. (I'm ignoring TIG polls for the moment as hard to interpret.)

    Con 39.0% Lab 36.4% LD 9.6%

    Con 317
    Lab 254
    LD 17
    SNP 40
    PC 3
    Grn 1

    Con 9 short of overall majority (very similar to now)
    Con+DUP 327
    Lab+others 315

    Which will she choose - an early GE on her deal, or her deal with referendum on it? I think the former.

    Yes - I think the GE is coming unless the deal surprises by sailing through. And perhaps even then as a consolidation play.

    BIG move in that direction on betfair too. GE in 2019 much shorter now than it was a couple of days ago.
    How about a different approach. 2nd referendum and GE on the same day (set for 6 months or so)?

    That could be more appealing for TM
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    Scott_P said:

    What levels does TIG need to reach in the polls before BoZo thinks defecting might be his best chance of becoming PM?

    TIG is trying to attract members and politicians; the last thing it needs is reason for them to start resigning.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    edited February 2019
    Scott_P said:
    Maybe Tezza and Jezza have already done a deal where-by Labour will ultimately vote for TM's deal in return for a general election this Summer?

    Nothing committed to paper. But with a nod and a wink? ;)
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,281
    Cookie said:

    I know it seems a bit of an outlandish suggestion, but is it possible that the TIGgers actually know what they are doing and have a coherent plan?

    They seem to. It all looks strikingly coordinated so far, as does a lot of the media commentary coming from pre-defectors, eg:

    https://twitter.com/IanDunt/status/1098203877537652736
    "I was born Labour and I thought I'd die Labour" - this sort of thing puts me right off. Makes it sound like a religion.
    Though the implication of her comment is that she's reassessing that irrational faith.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,257
    IanB2 said:

    It always was going to be a new party, if it gathered speed. What could be more anti-Corbyn than that?

    The desire is for something new in politics and for a different sort of politics. Looking (only) like a load of Labour retreads was a handicap, not an advantage.

    I agree. Our 2 party system only works well on the premise that both of the parties are 'broad churches', i.e. are themselves coalitions, Labour of socialists and social democrats, the Conservatives of baby-eaters and those merely in favour of it.

    Once these broad churches burn down and are replaced with little thin churches, as has happened with Labour and seems to be in the process of happening with the Cons, then the situation which ensues is not, for any length of time, tenable.

    So, yes, for Chuka, the trousers are tight, the time is right, the future's bright.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    edited February 2019


    3. Hard to see how this move does not mean the Conservatives more pro-Brexit. The remain faction are now weakened and will be seen as potential defectors, which increases the chances of deselection, while every Tory remainer MP that goes, strengthens the hold of the hard-line Brexiteers; Plus that poll out showing the Tories on 38 with TiG on 14 suggests the Tories' voters are more hard-line Brexit than their MPs.

    In the long term yes, but in the short term what matters is TMay, and TMay's whole thing seems to be running around frantically greasing whichever wheel is squeakiest.
    The Tories are now the Brexit Party: there is no other destination.

    Don't feel sorry for them. It is what most of them have always wanted.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,732
    Scott_P said:
    Is The Independent Unionist Group going to get its first recruit?
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810
    TIG press conference now live on BBC 24, three Tory defectors take the stand
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    edited February 2019
    Nigelb said:

    Corby and May return the compliment by not mentioning his group at all...
    https://twitter.com/ChukaUmunna/status/1098195425310531584

    I'm sure when Chuka becomes PM he'll have far better things to do than wasting his time having to grace Parliament with his presence...
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    I think Heidi Allen should have joined the LDs to start with.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220
    edited February 2019
    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_P said:

    What levels does TIG need to reach in the polls before BoZo thinks defecting might be his best chance of becoming PM?

    If we follow the same route as the SDP we might see TIG with a 10-15% lead by Christmas?
    They've got a real issue in that their top targets would be identical to the Lib Dems, and likely places Labour is miles and miles out in front (Bristol West). Meanwhile they won't be taking Tory seats in Brexitshire any time soon.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,239
    Allen is very impressive.
  • SunnyJimSunnyJim Posts: 1,106
    Heidi Allen is easier on the eye than the ear.

    All about her it would seem - 'my country needs me'.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,732
    Another appalling poll for the Brexit deal from YouGov. Conservative voters prefer Remain to the deal.

    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/tkwnu2z8xr/Internal_190207_BrexitDraftDeal_w.pdf
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810
    OllyT said:

    dixiedean said:

    What does this mean for next Con leader? Loss of 3 votes out of 317, surely increases the chances of ERG getting a candidate into the final 2.
    And from there would be a heavy favourite.

    What more could a new centrist grouping wish for than an ERG-led Tory party and a Corbyn-led Labour Party?
    Well exactly.
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    AndyJS said:

    I think Heidi Allen should have joined the LDs to start with.

    She wouldnt be in parliament if that were the case
  • Heidi Allen very strong here.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    SunnyJim said:

    Heidi Allen is easier on the eye than the ear.

    All about her it would seem - 'my country needs me'.

    She looks like Caroline Flint's younger sister.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,914
    Heidi Alllen VERY impressive. I'd vote for her!

    She'll be an excellent leader for this new group

  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,239
    Ha. She just used the actual Lib Dem slogan: "The United Kingdom deserves better"!
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810
    GIN1138 said:

    Nigelb said:

    Corby and May return the compliment by not mentioning his group at all...
    https://twitter.com/ChukaUmunna/status/1098195425310531584

    I'm sure when Chuka becomes PM he'll have far better things to do than wasting his time having to grace Parliament with his presence...
    He's right though. PMQs really is a load of shit.
  • Damn Heidi Allen is doing well....

    This is potentially transformative stuff..
  • The Independents against Independence represent everything people didn’t like about politics 2000-2016. Since then we have had millions of people engaged by Leave and Corbyn. Their reaction seems to be to refuse to accept the public could be right.
  • viewcode said:

    I know it seems a bit of an outlandish suggestion, but is it possible that the TIGgers actually know what they are doing and have a coherent plan?

    Pause.

    Thinks.

    Do you know, that's a bloody good question. Well done you. I have no idea... :(
    Maybe it seems the giant majority commanded by Blair is now being seen as the only way to get the centre back in power. Moderate Tories and Blairite Labour joining forces. Possibly a sensible leader off of a giant majority.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414
    Phillip Lee disagrees with "timing". Worried that Party is becoming UKIP lite. Won't be "only him" going if it continues. Cites bullying by Associations.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,914
    SunnyJim said:

    Heidi Allen is easier on the eye than the ear.

    All about her it would seem - 'my country needs me'.

    I've never heard her before but that's not how she struck me.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,732
    Heidi Allen: "If Brexit was a pained clarion call for change, then we hear it."

    Good line.
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810
    Good speech by Allen. Those who consider her mere window dressing are missing a trick.
  • Another appalling poll for the Brexit deal from YouGov. Conservative voters prefer Remain to the deal.

    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/tkwnu2z8xr/Internal_190207_BrexitDraftDeal_w.pdf

    That's not really what it said, is it? The 43% said leaving the EU on May's deal would be worse than Remaining. You can be a hard-line Brexiteer and answer yes to that. It is what Steve Baker was implying the other day when he retweeted the Telegraph article about suggesting we stay in and wreck the EU from the inside rather than leave on May's deal.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414
    Would it be fair to name them the Moderate Independent Liberal Faction?
  • All of these 'working class leave labour diehards', at what point will they stop? Local factory shuts down, left wing opposition to Tory rule collapses, soon we will just be left with the blokes from Monty Python explaining how they lived off a handful of gravel but still bloody well back BREXIT.
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    _Anazina_ said:

    Good speech by Allen. Those who consider her mere window dressing are missing a trick.

    Correct. She's much less than that.
  • dixiedean said:

    Would it be fair to name them the Moderate Independent Liberal Faction?

    It's certainly an 'attractive' party in parts.
  • Sarah Wollaston also good.

    The optics of all these intelligent women leaving parties full of braying shouty wankers isn't lost on me, and won't be on lots of female voters.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,732

    Another appalling poll for the Brexit deal from YouGov. Conservative voters prefer Remain to the deal.

    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/tkwnu2z8xr/Internal_190207_BrexitDraftDeal_w.pdf

    That's not really what it said, is it? The 43% said leaving the EU on May's deal would be worse than Remaining. You can be a hard-line Brexiteer and answer yes to that. It is what Steve Baker was implying the other day when he retweeted the Telegraph article about suggesting we stay in and wreck the EU from the inside rather than leave on May's deal.
    It doesn't matter why they prefer Remain, only that they do.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541

    The Independents against Independence represent everything people didn’t like about politics 2000-2016. Since then we have had millions of people engaged by Leave and Corbyn. Their reaction seems to be to refuse to accept the public could be right.

    If you are right the public will reject them. If you are wrong then they won't. That's democracy.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868
    Disappointed by the turncoats, but I don't see what they have in common with the Tiggers other than Brexit. Once it has a resolution, one way or another, I don't see how these three can stay in a group with those eight (or more) from Labour.

    Outside of Europe, Allen and Soubry are pretty Conservative and agree with the party on almost every other issue.

    Hopefully the PM gets the deal through in the next few weeks and we can finally see the back of the party split on Europe.
  • Sarah Wollaston also good.

    The optics of all these intelligent women leaving parties full of braying shouty wankers isn't lost on me, and won't be on lots of female voters.

    Yep, they seem like proper grown up rather than golf club boorish manchilds.
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810

    Damn Heidi Allen is doing well....

    This is potentially transformative stuff..

    They really look the part, this gang.

    No wonder the PB Tories and PB Corbynites are frit.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,134
    edited February 2019
    Cookie said:

    I know it seems a bit of an outlandish suggestion, but is it possible that the TIGgers actually know what they are doing and have a coherent plan?

    They seem to. It all looks strikingly coordinated so far, as does a lot of the media commentary coming from pre-defectors, eg:

    https://twitter.com/IanDunt/status/1098203877537652736
    "I was born Labour and I thought I'd die Labour" - this sort of thing puts me right off. Makes it sound like a religion.
    But for a some people, party politics is exactly that and why leaving is such a massive decision.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293

    Sarah Wollaston also good.

    The optics of all these intelligent women leaving parties full of braying shouty wankers isn't lost on me, and won't be on lots of female voters.

    Yet they all refuse to call by elections and allow their constituents to have their say on their decision?
This discussion has been closed.